Bracketology 2011: The Wait Is Nearly Over, As Selection Sunday Has Arrived

Bracketology 2011: Reviewing Our Predictions For The NCAA Tournament Bracket

Now that Bracketology is over for another season, it's time to see how close I came to projecting the NCAA Tournament selection committee's decisions. This season was a mixed bag, as like many, I got several at-larges incorrect, but I did a fairly decent job of seeding the teams, particularly when compared to last season.

Our Andy Hutchins has a recap of the surprises and snubs in this year's field, which matches up with my misses for 2011.

Correctly Selected At-Large Teams: 34 of 37 (missed VCU, Clemson, UAB)
I can't really complain about this number considering how little there was separating the last 10 teams in play for four to five spots. As I joked numerous times over the past few weeks, the committee could have come up with reasonable options by drawing names out of a hat. Each team had its flaws, but since the new system calls for 37 at-large teams, someone has to get them. I just didn't anticipate it would have been this trio.

Past Performance
33 of 34: 2009 and 2010
34 of 34: 2008
32 of 34: 2006 and 2007

Correctly Seeded: 37 of 68
Even though the middle lines were fairly muddled, I did well on this metric, though I missed a few in between lines 5 and 12, where I also had issues last season.

Past Performance
24 of 65: 2010
31 of 65: 2009
36 of 65: 2008
23 of 65: 2007
28 of 65: 2006 

Off By One Line: 17 of 68
The committee has the flexibility to move teams up and down a seed line to balance out the bracket, so this is a key statistic.

Past Performance
32 of 65: 2010
22 of 65: 2009 and 2008
25 of 65: 2007
19 of 65: 2006

Off By Two Lines: 8 of 68
The selection committee's biggest mistake here was slotting Texas, a team with eight wins against the RPI Top 50 as a four instead of a two, even if the Longhorns did struggle down the stretch.

Past Performance
7 of 65: 2010
9 of 65: 2009
4 of 65: 2008
12 of 65:2007
13 of 65: 2006

Off By Three Or More Lines: 3 of 68
These are the biggest whiffs. Utah State being slotted as a 12 instead of a 9 isn't much of a surprise, as I tend to overvalue the Aggies, but Missouri's place as one of the last four to escape the First Four and UCLA's high position came as shocks.

Past Performance
1 of 65: 2010
2 of 65: 2009
3 of 65: 2008
4 of 65: 2007
6 of 65: 2006

Considering how crazy this college basketball season was and how messy the at-large pool from lines seven to 12 were, I'm rather satisfied with my bracket projection for this season.

Bracketology 2011: Ohio State, Kansas, Pitt, Duke Likely No. 1 Seeds

After a little more than four months worth of games, including a week and a half full of conference tournament action, it's nearly time for all 2011 NCAA Tournament bracket questions to be answered and for all 68 teams to know their path through March Madness to the Final Four in Houston.

Before I jump into the final projection of the year, and one final look at the Last Four In and First Six Out, here are the biggest.changes from this morning's bracket projection.

Duke claimed the final No. 1 seed with its 75-58 win over North Carolina in the ACC final. The Tar Heels drop from a two to a three with the loss. I slotted the Blue Devils in the Southeast, not the West, however. Just a hunch. The Blue Devils join Ohio State, Kansas, and Pittsburgh on the top line, but don't be surprised if Notre Dame replaces the Panthers.

The Buckeyes are the likely No. 1 overall seed after their 71-60 victory over Penn State in the Big Ten final.

Florida also drops down to line No. 3 after a 70-54 loss to Kentucky in the SEC Championship Game. The Wildcats remain a four seed with the win, thanks to having a weaker road/neutral record than Syracuse and BYU, who are ahead of them on my S-curve.

Big East Tournament champion Connecticut, owner of 12 wins over the RPI Top 50, and Big 12 regular season and tourney runner-up Texas, replace the Tar Heels and Gators on line two.

Richmond claimed the Atlantic 10 title with a 67-54 victory over Dayton. That means the Last Four In from this morning remain in place, just in a slightly different order.

Now, here's one last look at the bracket.

National Semifinal Matchups

(1) East vs. (4) West
(2) Southwest vs. (3) Southeast

First Four

Automatic Bid Teams
March 15: ALABAMA STATE (SWAC) (NEW) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE (Big South) to Washington on March 17th
March 16: ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (Sun Belt) vs. TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (Southland) to Cleveland on March 18th

At-Large Teams (Last Four In)
March 15: St. Mary's vs.USC to Tampa on March 17th
March 16: Georgia vs. Virginia Tech to Chicago on March 18th

Next Four In (automatically in the Round of 64): Michigan State, Penn State, Illinois, Colorado

Previous seeds are in parentheses. Teams that have earned an auto bid are in ALL CAPS.

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 11
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
ACC, Pac-10: 4
A-10, MWC: 3
CAA, WCC: 2
21 one-bid conferences

Last Four In

Virginia Tech Hokies (21-11, 9-7 ACC)
RPI: 61
SOS: 90
Non-Conf. SOS: 82
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 13-11
Road/Neutral Record: 10-8
Quality Wins: Duke, Penn State, Florida State (N), Florida State
Troublesome Losses: at Clemson, Boston College, at Boston College, Virginia, at Virginia
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:at Georgia Tech
Considering all of the injury issues the Hokies have had this season, it's miraculous they're even in the bid picture. While the team owns wins over Duke and Florida State (twice), it lost all three games it played against Boston College and Clemson, its ACC bubble brethren. Seth Greenberg went out of his way to schedule a tougher non-conference slate, but his team only won two games with any real value (Penn State and Oklahoma State in Anaheim). Getting swept by Virginia hurts more than the bad RPI loss to Georgia Tech because the Hokies took care of the Yellow Jackets in their next two meetings.

Georgia Bulldogs (22-11, 9-7 SEC East)
RPI: 45
SOS: 40
Non-Conf. SOS: 56
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-9
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-11
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 12-11
Road/Neutral Record: 9-7
Quality Wins: Kentucky, UAB, at Tennessee, Colorado
Troublesome Losses: Alabama (N), at Alabama
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:None
The Bulldogs are not in the discussion really because of what they've done, especially after that debacle against Alabama in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday, but because of what they haven't done. On the plus side, Georgia has some decent wins, including ones over bubble teams Colorado and UAB, and a road/neutral record that's over .500. Somewhat negatively, they have a record against the top 200 that's barely above average; however, all of those losses came against teams ranked in the RPI Top 100, as Georgia was perfect against the bottom half of D1. In a year when just about every bubble team has some really bad losses, that fact helps the Bulldogs' case considerably.

USC Trojans (19-14, 10-8 Pac-10)
RPI: 67
SOS: 39
Non-Conf. SOS: 163
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 15-11
Road/Neutral Record: 7-10
Quality Wins: Texas, Arizona, at Tennessee, at Washington, UCLA
Troublesome Losses: at Nebaska, Rider, Oregon, at Oregon
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses: at TCU, at Oregon State, Bradley
The Trojans missed a huge opportunity when they lost their Pac-10 semifinal to Arizona on Friday night, but this team, despite some bad losses, has a decent chance at a bid, thanks to numerous quality wins. Sure, the Trojans have several bad losses, but keep in mind that three of them came when Jio Fontan was not yet eligible to play for the Men of Troy. But on the other hand, they dropped three of their four games to the Oregon schools with him in the lineup. Still, with victories over Texas and Arizona at home and at Tennessee and Washington, the Trojans have shown they can play with anyone.\

St. Mary's Gaels (23-8, 11-3 WCC)
RPI: 44
SOS: 99
Non-Conf. SOS: 137
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-6
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 13-7
Road/Neutral Record: 10-6
Quality Wins: St. John's, at Gonzaga
Troublesome Losses: Gonzaga (N), at Gonzaga, at Portland
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses: at San Diego
The Gaels' two biggest strengths are their ability to defeat bad teams, as they went 15-1 against the bottom half of Division I, and their record away from home. A lack of quality wins overall and relatively weak finish (the Gaels went 7-5 in their last 12 games) are minuses. Strong computer numbers and a more competitive WCC should help Randy Bennett's team earn a bid, however.

First Six Out

Clemson Tigers (21-11, 9-7 ACC)
RPI: 50
SOS: 71
Non-Conf. SOS: 146
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 9-8
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 15-11
Road/Neutral Record: 6-9
Quality Wins: Florida State, Boston College (N), Boston College, Virginia Tech
Troublesome Losses: at Maryland, at N.C. State, at South Carolina, at Virginia
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:None
Clemson has a shot simply because they have been playing very competitively of late and boast a 3-0 record against their ACC bubble competitors. Outside of the conference, the Tigers have very little on their profile, as their best wins came against College of Charleston and Long Beach State, both of whom are destined for the NIT. A 6-9 mark away from Littlejohn Coliseum also doesn't help mattersa. Still, this team passes the eye test based on their two games in Greensboro, so they have a decent shot at selection.

Boston College Eagles (20-12, 9-7 ACC)
RPI: 57
SOS: 38
Non-Conf. SOS: 281
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-10
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 15-12
Road/Neutral Record: 8-8
Quality Wins: Texas A&M (N), at Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech
Troublesome Losses: Harvard, Clemson (N), at Clemson, Miami, at Miami, at Rhode Island
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:Yale
The Eagles' biggest problem is that they couldn't play as consistently in the ACC as they did in the non-conference season. Since Boston College lost to Harvard, Yale, and Rhode Island in that time, that speaks volumes for the issues they had when they were winning more regularly. In the league, they swept Virginia Tech and did little else, losing season series to Clemson and Miami, a team that's not even close to the field.

Harvard Crimson (21-6, 12-3 Ivy)
RPI: 32
SOS: 154
Non-Conf. SOS: 119
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 10-6
Road/Neutral Record: 9-6
Quality Wins: Princeton, at Boston College, Colorado
Troublesome Losses: at Princeton, Princeton (N)
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses: at Yale
Despite a good position in the RPI, two losses in Yale's Lee Amphitheater may cost the Crimson a place in the field of 68. The first was a February 26th loss to the Bulldogs, and the second was yesterday's Ivy tiebreaker loss to Princeton. Wins over Boston College and Colorado, two other bubble residents, should provide a boost, but I'm just not sure the committee will give an at-large bid to an Ivy member, even if the Crimson's profile compares favorably (and is even better than) some of their other competitors'.

Alabama Crimson Tide (22-11, 12-4 SEC West)
RPI: 78
SOS: 127
Non-Conf. SOS: 253
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 10-11
Road/Neutral Record: 5-11
Quality Wins: Kentucky, at Tennessee, Georgia (N), Georgia
Troublesome Losses: St. Peter's (N), Seton Hall (N), at Arkansas
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses: at Providence, Iowa (N)
Even with a sweep of Georgia, the Crimson Tide appear to be out because of too many flaws on their profile, which makes it far inferior to that of the Bulldogs'. The two biggest strikes against Alabama are its weak strength of schedule (both overall and outside of the SEC) and a poor record away from Tuscaloosa. The fact Alabama's record against the top 200 teams in the country is under .500 is bad enough, but two losses against teams rated in the bottom half of Division I make that mark so much worse. Losing to the two best teams in the conference, Florida and Kentucky, in blowout fashion the span of 12 days is also not helpful in a year where the committee will be looking for reasons to leave teams out.

VCU Rams (23-11, 12-6 CAA)
RPI: 51
SOS: 86
Non-Conf. SOS: 268
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 12-10
Road/Neutral Record: 13-8
Quality Wins: at Old Dominion, George Mason (N), UCLA (N)
Troublesome Losses: at UAB, James Madison
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:at South Florida, at Northeastern, at Georgia State
A trio of bad losses, a 2-3 mark against the CAA's likely two bid teams (with three of the losses coming in Richmond), and a loss at fellow bubble team UAB look likely to keep the CAA Tournament runner-up (and fourth-place regular season finisher) Rams out of the field.

UAB Blazers (22-8, 12-4 C-USA)
RPI: 31
SOS: 79
Non-Conf. SOS: 316
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 10-7
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 13-8
Road/Neutral Record: 9-6
Quality Wins: VCU
Troublesome Losses: East Carolina (N)
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:at Arizona State
The Blazers have just one quality win on their profile, a December 21st home win over VCU. Even though they won the Conference USA regular season crown, UAB was swept by Memphis (granted both games were very close). They also lost their first game in the league tournament, falling to an East Carolina team they had defeated by 18 just five days before. There simply isn't enough on the Blazers' resume for them to receive a bid, but then again, I said virtually the same thing about UTEP last season.

All that's left is to see what the committee thinks. I, for one, can't wait to see how they dealt with the confusion at the bottom of the at-large pool.

NCAA Bracket Predictions 2011: Comparing The Credentials Of USC, Harvard, And Clemson On Selection Sunday

Going into Selection Sunday for March Madness, the 2011 edition, the bubble is both very soft and very large. A very large number of teams can legitimately stake a claim that they are one of the best 68 in the nation, but a couple of at-large teams are likely to be poor when they get into the tournament. It's an odd year for NCAA basketball, and it's obvious that the expanded field has changed the game significantly. With the selection show coming up later today, let's take a look at three teams who are right on the borderline between being in and being out: USC, Harvard, and Clemson.

All three have very different resumes and some decent evidence to claim they're better than the other two. Who out of this group deserves to go dancing? You be the judge.

USC

Record: 19-14 (11-9)

RPI: 67

SOS: 39

Top 50 wins: 5

Top 100 wins: 8

Sub 200 losses: 3

USC's resume may look the weakest on paper between them, Harvard, and Clemson, but you have to take into account the fact that they were without point guard Jio Fontan for two of those three terrible losses. Fontan is no superstar, but USC have no true point guard without him. They've obviously become a much better team since he's joined them after initially being declared ineligible. It will be interesting to see how much stock the bid committee puts into these matters.

Harvard

Record: 21-5 (12-2)

RPI: 32

SOS: 154

Top 50 wins: 1

Top 100 wins: 3

Sub 200 losses: 0

Obviously, Harvard's undoing is their poor strength of schedule and as a result, their lack of big wins. Their lone top 50 win came against Princeton, just days before the Tigers beat them in a playoff to snatch the Ivy League's automatic bid. Still, their non-conference wins against Colorado and Boston College are impressive. It's tough to say a team with an RPI that high and three very high quality wins doesn't deserve any consideration.

Clemson

Record: 21-11 (9-7)

RPI: 50

SOS: 71

Top 50 wins: 0

Top 100 wins: 9

Sub 200 losses: 0

Going into the final week of the regular season, Clemson was very much a bubble team. They knocked off fellow bubble teams Virginia Tech and Boston College in the last week, but that might not have been enough to get the Tigers into the tournament. While Clemson lacks a true signature win, they have a very large number of quality wins, and that might get them into the tournament.

If you have to take one of these three teams to the tournament, leaving the other two out, who are you taking? It's a very tough call, and a serious case could be made for any of the three. Who the bid committee selects out of this group is going to be very indicative of what they value most when making their selections.

Bracketology 2011: The Wait Is Nearly Over, As Selection Sunday Has Arrived

Selection Sunday, perhaps the most anticipated day on the college basketball calendar, has finally arrived. In a few hours, we'll finally know who the 68 teams invited to compete for the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship are during the NCAA Tournament Selection Show at 6 p.m. ET (CBS). On this day, I have a pair of projections: one now, and a final guess that will happen during the final quartet of conference championship games.

Today's projection is a bit different than yesterday's version, particularly at the bottom of the at-large pool. After the bracket, I have a breakdown of the Last Four In and First Six Out, and why I think they will or won't be selected this evening. Of course, the committee may have different ideas, especially with so little separating the 10 teams in play for the final four spots.

National Semifinal Matchups

(1) East vs. (4) West
(2) Southwest vs. (3) Southeast

First Four

Automatic Bid Teams
March 15: ALABAMA STATE (SWAC) (NEW) vs. UNC ASHEVILLE (Big South) to Washington on March 17th
March 16: ARKANSAS-LITTLE ROCK (Sun Belt) vs. TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO (Southland) to Cleveland on March 18th

At-Large Teams (Last Four In)
March 15: St. Mary's vs.USC to Tampa on March 17th
March 16: Georgia vs. Virginia Tech to Chicago on March 18th

Next Four In (automatically in the Round of 64): Michigan State, Penn State, Illinois, Colorado

Previous seeds are in parentheses. Teams that have earned an auto bid are in ALL CAPS.

Conference Breakdown

Big East: 11
Big Ten: 7
Big 12: 6
SEC: 5
ACC, Pac-10: 4
A-10, MWC, Pac-10: 3
CAA, WCC: 2
21 one-bid conferences

Last Four In

Virginia Tech Hokies (21-11, 9-7 ACC)
RPI: 61
SOS: 90
Non-Conf. SOS: 82
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 2-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 13-11
Road/Neutral Record: 10-8
Quality Wins: Duke, Penn State, Florida State (N), Florida State
Troublesome Losses: at Clemson, Boston College, at Boston College, Virginia, at Virginia
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:at Georgia Tech
Considering all of the injury issues the Hokies have had this season, it's miraculous they're even in the bid picture. While the team owns wins over Duke and Florida State in the conference, it lost all three games it played against their ACC bubble brethren. Seth Greenberg went out of his way to schedule a tougher non-conference slate, but his team only won two games with any real value (Penn State and Oklahoma State in Anaheim). Getting swept by Virginia hurts more than the bad RPI loss to Georgia Tech because the Hokies took care of the Yellow Jackets in their next two meetings.

St. Mary's Gaels (23-8, 11-3 WCC)
RPI: 44
SOS: 99
Non-Conf. SOS: 137
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-6
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 13-7
Road/Neutral Record: 10-6
Quality Wins: St. John's, at Gonzaga
Troublesome Losses: Gonzaga (N), at Gonzaga, at Portland
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses: at San Diego
The Gaels' two biggest strengths are their ability to defeat bad teams, as they went 15-1 against the bottom half of Division I, and their record away from home. A lack of quality wins overall and relatively weak finish (the Gaels went 7-5 in their last 12 games) are minuses. Strong computer numbers and a more competitive WCC should help Randy Bennett's team get in, however.

USC Trojans (19-14, 10-8 Pac-10)
RPI: 67
SOS: 39
Non-Conf. SOS: 163
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 5-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 15-11
Road/Neutral Record: 7-10
Quality Wins: Texas, Arizona, at Tennessee, at Washington, UCLA
Troublesome Losses: at Nebaska, Rider, Oregon, at Oregon
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses: at TCU, at Oregon State, Bradley
The Trojans missed a huge opportunity when they lost their Pac-10 semifinal to Arizona on Friday night, but this team, despite some bad losses, has a decent chance at a bid, thanks to numerous quality wins. Sure, the Trojans have several bad losses, but keep in mind that three of them came when Jio Fontan was not yet eligible to play for the Men of Troy. But on the other hand, they dropped three of their four games to the Oregon schools with him in the lineup. Still, with victories over Texas and Arizona at home and at Tennessee and Washington, the Trojans have shown they can play with anyone.

Georgia Bulldogs (22-11, 9-7 SEC East)
RPI: 45
SOS: 40
Non-Conf. SOS: 56
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-9
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-11
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 12-11
Road/Neutral Record: 9-7
Quality Wins: Kentucky, UAB, at Tennessee, Colorado
Troublesome Losses: Alabama (N), at Alabama
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:None
The Bulldogs are in the discussion really because of what they've done, especially after that debacle against Alabama in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday, but because of what they haven't done. On the plus side, Georgia has some decent wins, including ones over bubble teams Colorado and UAB, and a road/neutral record that's over .500. They also have a record against the top 200 that's barely above average; however, all of those losses came against teams ranked in the RPI Top 100, as Georgia was perfect against the bottom half of D1.

First Six Out

Clemson Tigers (21-11, 9-7 ACC)
RPI: 50
SOS: 71
Non-Conf. SOS: 146
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-6
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 9-8
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 15-11
Road/Neutral Record: 6-9
Quality Wins: Florida State, Boston College (N), Boston College, Virginia Tech
Troublesome Losses: at Maryland, at N.C. State, at South Carolina, at Virginia
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:None
Clemson has a shot simply because they have been playing very competitively of late and boast a 3-0 record against their ACC bubble competitors. Outside of the conference, the Tigers have very little on their profile, as their best wins came against College of Charleston and Long Beach State, both of whom are destined for the NIT. A 6-9 mark away from Littlejohn Coliseum also doesn't help mattersa. Still, this team passes the eye test based on their two games in Greensboro, so they have a decent shot at selection.

Boston College Eagles (20-12, 9-7 ACC)
RPI: 57
SOS: 38
Non-Conf. SOS: 281
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-7
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 7-10
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 15-12
Road/Neutral Record: 8-8
Quality Wins: Texas A&M (N), at Virginia Tech, Virginia Tech
Troublesome Losses: Harvard, Clemson (N), at Clemson, Miami, at Miami, at Rhode Island
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:Yale
The Eagles' biggest problem is that they couldn't play as consistently in the ACC as they did in the non-conference season. Since Boston College lost to Harvard, Yale, and Rhode Island in that time, that speaks volumes for the issues they had when they were winning more regularly. In the league, they swept Virginia Tech and did little else, getting swept by Clemson and Miami, a team that's not even close to the field.

Harvard Crimson (21-6, 12-3 Ivy)
RPI: 32
SOS: 154
Non-Conf. SOS: 119
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 1-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 10-6
Road/Neutral Record: 9-6
Quality Wins: Princeton, at Boston College, Colorado
Troublesome Losses: at Princeton, Princeton (N)
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses: at Yale
Despite a good position in the RPI, two losses in Yale's Lee Amphitheater may cost the Crimson a place in the field of 68. The first was a February 26th loss to the Bulldogs, and the second was yesterday's Ivy tiebreaker loss to Princeton. Wins over Boston College and Colorado, two other bubble residents, should provide a boost, but I'm just not sure the committee will give an at-large bid to an Ivy member, even if the Crimson's profile compares favorably (and is even better than) some of their other competitors'.

Alabama Crimson Tide (22-11, 12-4 SEC West)
RPI: 78
SOS: 127
Non-Conf. SOS: 253
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 4-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 5-7
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 10-11
Road/Neutral Record: 5-11
Quality Wins: Kentucky, at Tennessee, Georgia (N), Georgia
Troublesome Losses: St. Peter's (N), Seton Hall (N), at Arkansas
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses: at Providence, Iowa (N)
Even with a sweep of Georgia, the Crimson Tide appear to be out because of too many flaws on their profile, which makes it far inferior to that of the Bulldogs'. The two biggest strikes against Alabama are its weak strength of schedule (both overall and outside of the SEC) and a poor record away from Tuscaloosa. The fact Alabama's record against the top 200 teams in the country is under .500 is bad enough, but two losses against teams rated in the bottom half of Division I make that mark so much worse. Losing to the two best teams in the conference, Florida and Kentucky, in blowout fashion the span of 12 days is also not helpful in a year where the committee will be looking for reasons to leave teams out.

VCU Rams (23-11, 12-6 CAA)
RPI: 51
SOS: 86
Non-Conf. SOS: 268
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 3-5
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 8-8
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 12-10
Road/Neutral Record: 13-8
Quality Wins: at Old Dominion, George Mason (N), UCLA (N)
Troublesome Losses: at UAB, James Madison
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:at South Florida, at Northeastern, at Georgia State
A trio of bad losses, a 2-3 mark against the CAA's likely two bid teams (with three of the losses coming in Richmond), and a loss at fellow bubble team UAB look likely to keep the CAA Tournament runner-up (and fourth-place regular season finisher) Rams out of the field.

UAB Blazers (22-8, 12-4 C-USA)
RPI: 31
SOS: 79
Non-Conf. SOS: 316
Record vs. RPI Top 50: 0-4
Record vs. RPI Top 100: 10-7
Record vs. RPI Top 200: 13-8
Road/Neutral Record: 9-6
Quality Wins: VCU
Troublesome Losses: East Carolina (N)
Bad (RPI 150+) Losses:at Arizona State
The Blazers have just one quality win on their profile, a December 21st home win over VCU. Even though they won the Conference USA regular season crown, UAB was swept by Memphis (granted both games were very close). They also lost their first game in the league tournament, falling to an East Carolina team they had defeated by 18 just five days before. There simply isn't enough on the Blazers' resume for them to receive a bid, but then again, I said virtually the same thing about UTEP last season.

Today's Action

Of today's four conference championship games, just two will impact the bubble. The biggest is the Atlantic 10 final (CBS, 1 p.m. ET) where the ninth-seeded Dayton will look to earn their way into the field over Richmond. The Spiders are likely in win or lose. The Last Four In will be paying special attention to this one.

Penn State can also remove any mystery from selection by upsetting Ohio State, the most likely candidate for the No. 1 overall seed, in the Big Ten final (CBS, 3:30 p.m. ET).

The other two contests will be key for seeding as potential top seed Duke takes on likely No. 2 or 3 North Carolina for the ACC crown (ESPN or ACC Network, 1 p.m. ET), while Florida could lock up a spot on the two line with a win over Kentucky in the SEC Tournament final (ABC, 1 p.m. ET).

I'll have one final update sometime before the Selection Show. The specific time will depend on what happens in the Big Ten game in Indianapolis.