As we get closer to the 2011 Selection Sunday show and the unveiling of the 2011 NCAA Tournament bracket, we can probably guess the four No. 1 seeds with a good degree of certainty.
Ohio State and Kansas are almost sure to keep their No. 1 seeds, with the only question being which one takes the No. 1 overall seed. Kansas stated its case with a blowout win over Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game, while Ohio State is unlikely to budge much because the Big 10 Championship Game will end late. As of right now, Ohio State probably has the edge in that race.
Duke has also probably clinched a No. 1 seed after its 75-58 win over North Carolina in the ACC Championship Game. The winner of that game was probably going to earn a No. 1 seed, and that will almost certainly be the case with Duke winning so emphatically.
The only slight question, then, is with the fourth No. 1 seed. It would probably be an upset if anyone other than Pittsburgh earned it, especially given that Pittsburgh won the Big East regular-season championship. But Pittsburgh did lose in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament, which does open the door a bit. It's possible San Diego State, fresh off winning the Mountain West Championship Game over Jimmer Fredette and BYU, sneaks into a top seed.
That's probably unlikely, though. It looks like, for once, there may not be a huge debate over the four No. 1 seeds.