Bracketology 2011: Reviewing Our Predictions For The NCAA Tournament Bracket

Now that Bracketology is over for another season, it's time to see how close I came to projecting the NCAA Tournament selection committee's decisions. This season was a mixed bag, as like many, I got several at-larges incorrect, but I did a fairly decent job of seeding the teams, particularly when compared to last season.

Our Andy Hutchins has a recap of the surprises and snubs in this year's field, which matches up with my misses for 2011.

Correctly Selected At-Large Teams: 34 of 37 (missed VCU, Clemson, UAB)
I can't really complain about this number considering how little there was separating the last 10 teams in play for four to five spots. As I joked numerous times over the past few weeks, the committee could have come up with reasonable options by drawing names out of a hat. Each team had its flaws, but since the new system calls for 37 at-large teams, someone has to get them. I just didn't anticipate it would have been this trio.

Past Performance
33 of 34: 2009 and 2010
34 of 34: 2008
32 of 34: 2006 and 2007

Correctly Seeded: 37 of 68
Even though the middle lines were fairly muddled, I did well on this metric, though I missed a few in between lines 5 and 12, where I also had issues last season.

Past Performance
24 of 65: 2010
31 of 65: 2009
36 of 65: 2008
23 of 65: 2007
28 of 65: 2006 

Off By One Line: 17 of 68
The committee has the flexibility to move teams up and down a seed line to balance out the bracket, so this is a key statistic.

Past Performance
32 of 65: 2010
22 of 65: 2009 and 2008
25 of 65: 2007
19 of 65: 2006

Off By Two Lines: 8 of 68
The selection committee's biggest mistake here was slotting Texas, a team with eight wins against the RPI Top 50 as a four instead of a two, even if the Longhorns did struggle down the stretch.

Past Performance
7 of 65: 2010
9 of 65: 2009
4 of 65: 2008
12 of 65:2007
13 of 65: 2006

Off By Three Or More Lines: 3 of 68
These are the biggest whiffs. Utah State being slotted as a 12 instead of a 9 isn't much of a surprise, as I tend to overvalue the Aggies, but Missouri's place as one of the last four to escape the First Four and UCLA's high position came as shocks.

Past Performance
1 of 65: 2010
2 of 65: 2009
3 of 65: 2008
4 of 65: 2007
6 of 65: 2006

Considering how crazy this college basketball season was and how messy the at-large pool from lines seven to 12 were, I'm rather satisfied with my bracket projection for this season.

Log In Sign Up

Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.


You must be a member of to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at You should read them.


You must be a member of to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at You should read them.




Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.