Top-ranked Kentucky hasn't faced a ranked opponent since New Year's Eve, but that changes Tuesday night when No. 8 Florida comes to Rupp Arena.
Feb 7, 2012 - College basketball's Rivalry Week™ features all sorts of different matchups -- battles for conference titles, NCAA tournament eligibility, etc. Technically Florida could tie Kentucky in the loss column with a win tonight at Rupp Arena, but that is at least reasonably unlikely. (Ken Pomeroy currently gives the Wildcats an 85-percent chance of winning.) Instead, perhaps the most intriguing aspect of tonight's game will be watching Florida probe Kentucky for weaknesses. Despite extreme youth, Kentucky currently looks like the most well-rounded team in the country; they have lost just once and played only two other games decided by six points or less, and as March approaches, it seems a pretty good time to figure out what, and who, might be capable of knocking off the Wildcats when it counts the most.
| UF |
Opp. | UK |
Opp. | |
| Pace (No. of Possessions) |
66.6 |
66.8 |
||
| Points Per Possession (PPP) |
1.20 |
0.98 |
1.19 |
0.88 |
| Points Per Shot (PPS) |
1.36 |
1.14 |
1.38 |
0.99 |
| 2-PT FG% | 52.8% |
45.7% |
52.8% |
37.6% |
| 3-PT FG% | 40.2% |
34.0% |
36.9% |
31.6% |
| FT% | 68.4% |
70.2% |
71.6% |
67.8% |
| True Shooting % | 59.0% |
50.9% |
58.0% |
44.2% |
| UF | Opp. | UK | Opp. | |
| Assists/Gm | 16.3 |
12.0 |
13.3 |
10.3 |
| Steals/Gm | 7.2 |
5.1 |
6.7 |
5.6 |
| Turnovers/Gm | 11.0 |
14.0 |
12.1 |
13.1 |
|
Ball Control Index (BCI) (Assists + Steals) / TO |
2.13 |
1.21 |
1.65 |
1.21 |
| UF | Opp. | UK | Opp. | |
| Expected Off. Rebounds/Gm | 11.9 |
12.4 |
11.5 |
14.2 |
| Offensive Rebounds/Gm | 11.9 |
10.8 |
12.8 |
12.1 |
| Difference | +0.0 |
-1.6 |
+1.3 |
-2.1 |
| Net Rebounds/Gm |
+1.6 |
+3.4 |
||
Kentucky coach John Calipari plays a relatively dangerous game, aiming to pull in the absolute most young talent possible each year, losing most of it to the NBA, then bringing in a fresh new batch the next year. In 2009-10, the Wildcats were led by freshmen DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall and Eric Bledsoe. In 2010-11, it was Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones. This year, it is Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marquis Teague. While other schools follow cycles of experience, Calipari just presses the reset button each winter. And though he has yet to bring a national title to Lexington following this recipe, it is difficult to argue with the record; in the three years referenced above (2009-12), the Wildcats have won 87 games and lost just 13.
This year's top two UK freshmen are big and (of course) talented, and the Wildcats' identity has followed suit. They are a strong rebounding team, and thanks to Davis, they are the No. 1 shot-blocking team in the country. To beat them, you probably have to catch fire from long-range and battle incredibly hard on the glass; so far, only Indiana (9-for-15 on 3-pointers, 12 offensive rebounds) has managed to pull off that feat.
| UF Offense vs UK Defense Ranks |
|||
| UF Offense | UK Defense | Advantage | |
| Efficiency | 2 |
7 |
Push |
| Effective FG% | 4 |
2 |
Push |
| Turnover % | 9 |
229 |
UF Big |
| Off. Reb. % | 96 |
77 |
Push |
| FTA/FGA | 223 |
9 |
UK Big |
| UK Offense vs UF Defense Ranks |
|||
| UK Offense | UF Defense | Advantage | |
| Efficiency | 4 |
100 |
UK |
| Effective FG% | 32 |
114 |
UK |
| Turnover % | 38 |
158 |
UK Big |
| Off. Reb. % | 20 |
105 |
UK |
| FTA/FGA | 29 |
20 |
Push |
Top Five Players
Florida's Biggest Advantages
Kentucky is only solid on the perimeter, not fantastic. They do still rank 58th in Def. 3PT%, but they struggle to force turnovers. Florida, meanwhile, is incredibly efficient on offense, in part because they never turn the ball over. Ball control is an aspect the Gators will absolutely have to exploit if they are to steal the upset in Lexington. If they can control the ball, they may be able to generate some open looks from long-range. They rank 11th in the country in Off. 3PT%, and they are sixth in the country in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt. That is good versus Kentucky, against whom it is semi-pointless to shoot too close to the basket unless you are simply interested in padding Davis' block stats.
The Gators have made 40.2 percent of their 3-pointers on the year, and the shots can come from as many as five different primary contributors. Erik Murphy (46.1 percent), Kenny Boynton (43.8 percent), Erving Walker (39.3 percent), Mike Rosario (39.0 percent) and freshman Bradley Beal (34.5 percent) have all taken at least 76 3-balls this season, and four of the five have made a beautifully high percentage of them. If the shots are falling, Florida will stick around. If they aren't, however, it is unlikely the Gators will get a ton of second chances.
Kentucky's Biggest Advantages
As would be expected from the No. 1 team in the country, Kentucky has quite a few advantages of which they should be able to exploit. They do a beautiful job of playing stellar FG% defense without fouling, and the jump-shooting Gators don't draw fouls very well. Without any free points of which to speak, they should be able to make the Gators completely one-dimensional on offense. And their well-rounded offense (Top 40 in all of the categories listed above) should be able to poke plenty of holes in an iffy Gator defense.
From the perspective of Usage Rates, Kentucky has a balanced (almost too balanced) offense. Terrence Jones and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist dominate the most possessions of any starter, and Kyle Wiltjer (5.9 PPG) is a boost off of the bench, but Calipari's Dribble Drive offense doesn't exactly produce massive quantities of assists, seemingly relying mostly on either baskets by the man doing the driving, or offensive rebound opportunities. If Florida can stay in front of Kentucky's guards on offense, they might be able to slow the Wildcats down a bit, but that goes for everybody Kentucky has played this year, and almost nobody has actually stopped them with any regularity.
The Gators have repelled all visitors to Gainesville this season, but they have been confusing on the road. They stayed within seven points of Ohio State in Columbus and nearly knocked off Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, but their slip-ups to Rutgers and Tennessee were a bit alarming. The rims in Knoxville were unkind (Florida shot 36 percent from the field, 32 percent on 3-pointers) and revealed the downside to reliance on jump shots. If you find your shooting rhythm, you can hang with anybody. And if you don't, then you might not have a reliable Plan B. Of course, that was a month ago, and the Gators haven't lost since then.
Granted, the Wildcats have only played one truly strong team on the road (Indiana), and they lost that game, but they have still passed almost every test offered to them so far, and ... well, this game isn't on the road. It is in Lexington, where they have already taken out North Carolina and Alabama.
Pomeroy's projection says Kentucky 79, Florida 67. I think Florida can find some open 3's against the Wildcats, however, and if they do, they'll stick around. They won't win, but they can post a single-digit showing at the very least. I'll say Kentucky 82, Florida 75.
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