SB Nation - Brian Zoubek

ACC Power Rankings: 12.8

MRickman84 — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:30:14 -0000

So this probably should have been done yesterday, but I really want to get in the habit of doing power rankings throughout the season. UNC occupies the top spot this week, with Duke coming in second, as both are coming off tough losses last week to strong opponents.

Let's take a look at who is where after the jump...

1.) UNC-- [W vs. Michigan State, L vs. Kentucky] UNC is getting better as was expected. The young guys are playing well and Larry Drew II looks a lot more comfortable. I'm still concerned about the Heels' bench, as Strickland looks a little lost out there and Henson just does not know what to do with his body. The Wear twins are eating up a ton of minutes without a lot of productivity. Tyler Zeller is a great player for them though and really makes the perfect sixth man. UNC gets another tough test when they head to Dallas to play Texas at the Cowboys stadium next week.

2.) Duke -- [L vs. Wisconsin, W vs. St. John's] I thought this Duke team was supposed to be able to shoot? Kyle Singler is looking average at best so far this year and is taking a LOT of shots. You know what you're getting out of Jon Scheyer week in and week out and that is a great stabilizer. Andre Dawkins has been spectacular so far and we are going to be seeing a lot more of him as Duke enters ACC play. Duke's big weakness is still down low--Zoubek and Thomas are just bad, but the Plumlees work hard and are good players.

3.) GT [W vs. Siena, W vs. USC] The Jackets were left out of the Challenge this year because of their finish last season, and that really is a shame as I believe they would have won their matchup and turned the tide for the ACC. Instead, Tech put a whooping on Siena and USC last week. GT is stellar in the frontcourt with Lawal, Peacock and Favors, but losing Iman Shumpert is going to be sidelined for 3-6 weeks with a knee injury.

4.) Clemson [L vs. Illinois, W vs. South Carolina] Clemson is looking like bi-polar Clemson again, surprise! This is a good, solid basketball team. They have 5 players averaging at least 9 points per game and Trevor Booker is almost averaging a double-double (13 and 9). Their problem is that they just lose focus (as seen by the terrible collapse against Illinois). I think they are a better team than Georgia Tech, but they just can't pass them until they show some consistency.

5.) Miami [W vs. Minnesota, L vs. BC] Yes, I know they lost their first conference game. But it was very close and came down to the buzzer. They picked up a great non-con win over Minnesota, but still have not really been challenged other than their last two contests. Dwayne Collins is very good, but there's a lot of pressure on him coming into conference play since two of Miami's three strong guards are newcomers (Malcolm Grant from Villinova and freshman Durand Scott.) James Dews can get it done too, but we will see just how much the 'Canes miss Jack McClinton after the 1st of the year.

6.) Wake Forest [L vs. Purdue, W vs. Gonzaga] After a disappointing loss at home to William & Mary, the Deacs took to the road for two very tough tests. After a hard-fought loss to Purdue, the Deacs looked like they finally clicked in a win over Gonzaga at the Kennel. If the Demon Deacons can use this as a momentum builder, they could enter the new year at 10-2. They will be tested by UNC-W, who has played some good teams tough, as well as Richmond, which received votes in the polls this week. Freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart are looking like the real deal, but the Deacs absolutely need to get consistency from their bigs and from Al-Farouq Aminu.

7.) Virginia Tech [W vs. Iowa, W vs. Georgia] I like VT. They're better than they look on paper, and their loss to Temple is not a bad one--the Owls almost pulled off the upset against Georgetown a few games ago. They easily could finish anywhere between 6th and 10th, but the combo of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen should be good for at least 6 conference wins.

8.) Maryland [W vs. Indiana, L vs. Villanova] I've seen Maryland play 4 times now this year and I'm sorry, I just don't think they are very good. Greivis Vasquez takes way too many ill-advised shots and he is shooting 32%. Sean Mosley and Landon Milbourne are the strong points to this team and Eric Hayes keeps them calm sometimes, but they aren't deep and I'm not sold on their front court. The Terps were a hot pick to start the season, but they have to prove something to me before they can move up the board.

9.) Boston College [W vs. Michigan, W vs. Miami] Here we go again. It's the same old story every year. BC looks sparse on paper and then Al Skinner does a great job coaching his team to overachieve. It'll probably happen again this year and their last two wins are a big indicator of this. Reggie Jackson could be a great player, and BC gets bumped up a spot just from his nasty dunk against the 'Canes (on a terrible offensive foul call in the last 30 seconds) and his clutch FTs to seal the win. Raji, Jackson, Trapani is a great combo and they get a good effort out of Josh Southern too.

10.) Florida State [L vs. Ohio State, W vs. FIU] Florida State looked downright ugly against Ohio State. And downright ugly against Florida. But that win against Marquette was big, so they have that in them. Alabi, Singleton and Kitchen are a nice 1-2-3, but the 'Noles need to be getting more out of Xavier Gibson and Ryan Reid.

11.) NC State [L vs. Northwestern, W. vs Marquette] After their loss to Northwestern, I didn't think at all that the Wolfpack would beat Marquette. It was the furthest thing from my mind. State is 6-1, but they are a mess and there is just not much there.

12.) Virginia [L vs. Penn State, L vs. Auburn] Hey, at least Virginia has beaten Cleveland State, something Wake wasn't able to do last year. Sylven Landesberg is a heck of a player, but when your next two leading scorers are Mike Scott and Sammy Zeglinski, there's a problem there. Virginia is not very good.

2009-10 Team Previews: Duke Blue Devils

Zach B — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 20:00:51 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

Coach K has brought Team USA a gold medal the olympics but it has been many years since he cut down the nets in March. Can this group get him back to college basketball glory? (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)

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Even though Gonzaga basically opens their season schedule with Tom Izzo and a perennial powerhouse in Michigan State, it probably isn't the game that most Zag fans have circled on their schedule. There are teams, programs, and coaches that, no matter where they are at currently, are looked upon as belonging at another level. We see this especially in college sports. In football, you have timeless programs like Alabama, Penn State, Texas, USC, and the Florida schools. These programs have all had struggles in recent history but there reputations are so good that everyone knows it is only a matter of time before they are back. It's the same in college basketball with programs like Duke, North Carolina, Kentucky, UCLA, and maybe even Michigan State. These programs are so revered that you really have to take notice when your school plays them, no matter if they are 20-2 or 2-20, the name on the front of the jersey is still the same.

Duke teams of old have been oriented towards excelling in the backcourt and putting out a frontcourt that was serviceable enough to get rebounds and play solid defense. Guys like JJ Redick, Gerald Henderson, DeMarcus Nelson, Daniel Ewing, Dahntay Jones, and Jay Williams have all been great guards in this program and they carried Coach K and this program for a while. This year's edition of the Duke Blue Devils has talent on the outside but they will be relying more on their forwards and centers more than they ever have in recent memory. Coach K brought in two solid big men prospects that have versatility but are most comfortable beneath the basket. Greg Paulus has moved on from basketball to football and that means that backcourt will take on a little different look. You'll recognize the names John Scheyer and Nolan Smith but this could be a breakout year for both as they are no longer forced to play out of position. While the changes in the backcourt and the additions in the frontcourt will be huge for the Blue Devils, this season will come down to the man that doesn't really fit any position, Kyle Singler. The All-American candidate is one of the most versatile players in the nation and finally, after two seasons at Duke, he is playing his natural position.

Last Season: It's difficult to categorize what kind of season it was for Duke a year ago. The Blue Devils were, as usual, one of the most hyped schools heading into the season. The came out of the gates with a top five ranking and hit the ground running. The played a pretty difficult early season schedule with two games against Michigan, and games against Purdue, Xavier, Davidson, and Georgetown. They split their match ups with Michigan, steamrolled Xavier and Purdue, and never were seriously threatened by Georgetown or Davidson. They headed into the ACC with only one loss on their books and would go on to lose five in conference play. The tough part is that they lost both regular season contests with the Tarheels of North Carolina. They got some revenge in the ACC Tournament as they won three tight contests with Boston College, Maryland, and Florida State to cut down the nets. They entered the NCAA Tournament with a great head of steam and were a two seed. After dominating #15 seed Binghamton and narrowly escaping and upset-minded Texas team, Duke had reached the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since '06. Duke had been led by the great play of Gerald Henderson, Jon Scheyer, and Kyle Singler but in the Sweet Sixteen, they vanished. A very hot Villanova team absolutely annihilated the Devils 77-54 and ended their season in bitter disappointment.

New Faces: Duke brought in three new excellent freshman prospects to help reinvigorate a team that hadn't had a whole lot of fresh blood in a while. The most impressive new face for the Blue Devils thus far appears to be Mason Plumlee. A 6'10'' forward, Plumlee is an offensive minded big man who actually plays in the paint. He will be able to give Duke something it hasn't had in a long time, a legitamate low post scoring presence. If his brother, Miles can continue to mature, the Plumlee brothers will have outstanding futures in Durham. The next new face is Ryan Kelly. Kelly was the higher rated prospect out of high school but he came down with a sickness earlier this year that forced him to lose a lot of weight and he is still coming back into his own after that. It remains to be seen whether or not Ryan will be able to contribute this season for the Blue Devils. Early indications are that the skill is there, but his body is just not ready for an ACC schedule. When it's all said and done, his upside may be more exciting but Mason is more ready for instant contribution. The last new face that will factor in this season is Andre Dawkins. Dawkins is a guy that many have you have probably heard of because he was able to complete high school in three years and enrolled in Duke a year before he was expected. Dawkins is a bona fide, big time scorer. His ability to get to the basket and make plays is what made him a big time recruit. He's a year younger than most freshman so the learning curve will be a little more steep for him but thus far he has impressed Duke fans with his maturity. It's a toss up between Dawkins and Plumlee to see who has the greater impact but don't be surprised to see the young freshman Dawkins become a serious contributor right away.

Players to Watch: There always seems to be that one guy at Duke or Carolina that just fits the program well and seems to never graduate. For Duke, that player is Kyle Singler and this is 100% his team this season. Singler was one of the most highly recruited players in his class when he came to Durham and he has lived up to the bill. A season ago Singler was Duke's co-leading scorer with 16.5 points a game and for the most part, he has been a model of consistency. The past two seasons, he has been forced to play down near the basket as more of a power forward but this year, thanks to the arrival of Mason Plumlee and the expected big year for Miles Plumlee, Singler will be able to move back to the small forward spot. He'll play exclusively on the perimeter for Coach K and this should make his efficiency skyrocket. The next player, or players to watch will be the Duke backcourt. The Blue Devils don't really have a natural point guard but Jon Scheyer proved a season ago that he can make it work. Scheyer is an outstanding decision maker and Duke really played their best when he was at the point. The other side of the coin is Nolan Smith. Smith is now going to play exclusively as the off-guard which is his natural spot and reports are that the people of Durham expect big things from Mr. Smith. In years past he was more of a shooter and not a scorer but with the switch, Nolan should add a whole new dimension to his game.

Concerns: Whenever you play Duke, there are going to be a wealth of concerns. Few programs have had the staying power of this program and the general consensus is that as long as Coach K is there, Duke will always be great. They are also a veteran dominated team. Scheyer is a senior, Smith and Singler are juniors, and the Plumlee brothers are young but will have time to develop. They will also benefit from veteran big men Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek still being around to give them great depth. The major concern for Gonzaga is combating this veteran core and trying to slow down Kyle Singler. I think may would pencil him in on their first team All-American ballots right now because his production the last two years has been sensational and when you think that he did all that while playing out of position, it is truly astounding. There will also be a lot of pressure on Gonzaga's guards to outplay Duke's backcourt. This is another game where both team's lowpost players are a total question mark so it is important for Bouldin and Gray to get off to a big start. Demetri Goodson's defense on Scheyer will also be huge.

What we are watching for: There are going to be a lot of exciting and terrifying match ups during this game for Gonzaga. I'll be very interested to see how Coach K decides to guard Demetri Goodson. The major caveat with having Scheyer run the point for Duke is that he is not a quick defender so this is a match up that Meech can really exploit if he chooses to. Another interesting coaching decision will be how Coach Few plays Kyle Singler and how that affects the rest of the lineup. More than likely this match up will probably go to freshman Elias Harris. His athleticism and versatility should be a very good match for Singler. If this happens, Andy Poling and Rob Sacre better be ready to play quality minutes because the Plumlee brothers will start in the post and they both go 6'10''. With Elias now playing the small forward, Gonzaga's frontcourt could be severely depleted. This isn't a problem that only Gonzaga will have to deal with. Singler is going to give teams fits all season long.

Thoughts on the ACC Media Poll

T.H. — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 05:26:33 -0000

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I really expected Duke to run away with the top spot.

Don't get me wrong, I was also expecting the Blue Devils to fail to live up to preseason expectations, but I still expected those expectations to be high. They only lost Henderson, Paulus and last year's potential savior at the point Elliot Williams. Carolina lost four starters and return only two upperclassmen with significant playing time. Folks have been raving about Krzyzewski's incoming class like it was the second coming of, well, every other Duke recruiting class, regardless how many players turn into Brian Zoubek once they hit Cameron Indoor. I expected a full-on adoration of Duke to start the season.

But no, they end up tied for first with UNC, as more and more people return to the Carolina bandwagon, sometimes to a ridiculous degree. (No one should be considering a championship repeat until the five freshmen jockeying for playing time get half an ACC slate under their belt. There are five freshman, and to expect a repeat of 2006's performance is slightly premature at this stage.) What's worrisome to me is that no other ACC team grabbed the fancy of the press. This season has a the makings of being a relatively down year for both UNC and Duke, and the perfect opportunity for a logjam at the top of the standings not unlike 2007. But very few people are wiling to go that far. Hell, Georgia Tech has miracle freshmen coming in, too. Give them some love.

Also, Virginia Tech is vastly underrated at 8th. Seth Greenberg's returning four starters, and has only overachieved with his level of talent for the Hokies. Putting Malcolm Delaney on the first team all-ACC may, paradoxically, be a bit of a stretch.

Elliot Williams Leaving Duke, Rumored to Play for Memphis

Ben Broman — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 13:33:01 -0000

This is obviously huge news for the rest of the ACC, and Duke obviously, but we'll get to that later. Via Scout:

Elliot Williams, who started 12 games as a freshman, will transfer from Duke in order to be closer to home sources confirmed to TDD.

An official announcement from Duke is expected Wednesday.

Not a lot is given after that. From what I've heard, he's transferring to Memphis (he's from Memphis, after all, and it says he wants to be closer to home) and will be able to play immediately, claiming hardship. His mother is apparently terminally ill, and he wants to be close to her, understandably. That's gotta be tough for him, and condolences go out to him and his family if this indeed is the case.

Condolences also go out to Duke (not really), because they're in a bad and somewhat hilarious spot right now. They have two scholarship guards on their entire roster. Yes, their entire roster. There's Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, and everyone else on the team is above 6-8.

Remember last year when we were making fun of them for having no bigs outside of Brian Zoubek? And even he didn't really count, because he was terrible. How ironic is this?

Of course, when we were making fun of them for having Zoubek and a bunch of freshmen, they won 30 games and came in 2nd in the ACC. This team's starting five is still very good. A Smith-Scheyer-Singler-Plumlee/Thomas-Zoubek lineup is pretty imposing and very white. But there is literally 0 depth at the guard spots. An injury could be killer. As it stands, if a team can push the tempo and tire out the guards, Duke is eminently beatable.

I said this earlier, but this is the year to make a move in the ACC - UNC is, if not in a rebuilding process, then a reloading process - but even reloading takes a second. Duke is more vulnerable than any time in recent history. Wake lost their two best players. Clemson lost their two best 3 point shooters. FSU lost their best player by far. No team stands out. I legitimately think the Terps could challenge, if everything breaks right.

I For One Welcome Our Boring, Boring Big East Overlords

T.H. — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 04:16:00 -0000

It was a pretty poor pair of games CBS gave the Washington D.C. area last night. Not that it was the network's fault. I got the two I wanted to see, they just didn't live up to expectations.

In the first game, Pittsburgh continued its apparent quest to be the first one seed to head home, only to be foiled once again by their opponent. Xavier had an eight point halftime lead that evaporated in 6:14 scoring drought once play resumed. The Musketeers only managed 18 points in the entire second half, and it wasn't due to Pitt's defensive prowess. Both teams played ugly, ugly basketball, but Levance Fields' last minute of play, with an arcing three that had no business going in and a late steal to seal the game gives us another twenty minutes of this thing Yinzers call basketball. Lucky us.

As for Duke-Villanova, the Blue Devils met a team that could outrun their odd, all three-point shooting team, and they handled it very poorly. Facing a more athletic team, Duke responded with stupid fouls, poor shooting and frustrated play. Gerald Henderson stood listlessly more than I've seen all season, when he wasn't banished to the bench with foul trouble. Kyle Singler's missed threes left no one underneath to rebound, Nolan Smith and Lance Thomas contributed little but petulant fouls, and Brian Zoubek was left to be a bright point in Duke's game.

Brian Zoubek should never be a bright point.

And for all the praise Krzyzewski (and Paulus) gets for benching Paulus, he reverts to his senior guard quite a lot, such as the first half of the second UNC game. Sure enough, with the game slipping away early in the second half and Duke down 12, Paulus was given the reins, and promptly through the ball away, turned it over, and then fouled the guy who just picked his pocket. Thus endeth the Paulus era at Duke.

However, if SIngler puts half the effort into improving his game as he does debating the refs, they could be a good team next year. As it stands, UNC is now the ACC's lone hope, again.

There are some Duke - UNC developments

SFBE.MP — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 20:26:27 -0000

The game hasn't even started, but there's a handful of key players at less than 100 percent. This is disheartening news; It's so much more fun when they hurt each other.

Ty Lawson left yesterday's practice on crutches with a bum toe. Toes aren't really important though right? We got 10 of em. X-rays are negative and all indications are Lawson is going to suit up, but just how effective he can be becomes a story line as we approach tip off.
Tyler Hansbrough is still coping with a nagging four year mental illness. Unfortunately it hasn't stopped him before so expect him to get his normal minutes and numbers, but I just wanted to throw that in there.
For Duke, Nolan Smith will be inactive with a nagging concussion suffered in the recent game against Maryland. It will be his third consecutive DNP. God help us as Greg Paulus must shoulder the load.
Jon Scheyer, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek got a little roughed up Wednesday against Florida State. Scheyer and Thomas tweaked their ankles and the lanky Zoubek broke his nose. Scheyer and Zoubek are expected to play however, Thomas' status is TBD.

Next Day Thoughts

Dave Tucker — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:13:04 -0000

Having slept following that horrible loss, I think I can reflect better on yesterday's game.

- I was at the game and the crowd was awesome, especially the students. Operation Scheyerface 2.0 was fantastic.

- There are few thing I loath more in college basketball then officials deciding and dictating game play. Maryland had 3 players foul out...3!! I'm not saying that a whistle here and there would have resulted in the Terps winning, especially since there were some calls the officials did and didn't make on Duke as well, but the officials refused to let both teams just play and it was beyond frustrating.

- The 5th foul on Vasquez was horrible and non-existent. I feel like if MD either had a decent lead or was losing be a lot, Gary would have definately gotten a technical because he would have really given it to the officials, but because the game was close, he held back. He did say this in his post-game press conference: "Very physical game. It's interesting. As you know, I can't say anything."

- The Terps seemed lost and out of sync once Vasquez fouled out of the game.

- The Terps played great defense in the first half, making Duke take several possessions down to the end of the shot clock.

- Dave Neal's screen on Smith, followed by a 3 pointer, made the roof come off at Comcast

Dave Neal hard screen on Nolan Smith (via 513official2)

- Duke made a few 3 pointers when it mattered, both daggers.

- Maryland, the best free-throw shooting team in the ACC, struggled from the line last night, going 15-25 from the line, missing several front ends of 1 and 1's. In a game like this, where the officials were whistle happy, having an off night at the line was the difference in the game.

- Duke's "inside" players like Zoubek are terrible. Singler is good, but past him, Duke stinks. I think it was illustrated perfectly at the end of the first half, when Zoubek had the ball 2 feet from the basket and Landon Milbourne (who, granted, can jump pretty high), stuffed him. Zoubek is 7'1"! He's also a junior who hasn't developed at all. He also jumps like an elephant...the rest of Duke's inside presence? The only thing they're good at is passing the ball.

- This team has come a long way in the last month. I think they can take care of business against UVA and NC State and maybe give Wake a good game, they have a decent shot of making the NCAA's, especially if they win a game or two in the ACC Tourney.

- Virginia Tech's win over Clemson is VERY hurtful to the Terps. Fortunately, Va. Tech still has a brutal schedule remaining, but they need to not win any more big games or they're taking a at-large spot away from the Terps.

- I'm not saying it will happen, but this team could make an 2004 ACC tournament type run, with Vasquez carrying the team in the same way that Gilchrist did. I'm just saying this team has shown it can indeed play with the big boys in the conference. And being on a neutral court, anything is possible...

What are your thoughts from the game last night?

Poll

Will the Terps make the NCAA Tournament?

Yes

7 votes

Yes, but they'll be one of the last 4 teams in

32 votes

Not unless they win their last 3 games

13 votes

No way

5 votes

57 votes | Poll has closed

Elliot Williams Is Not Your Savior

T.H. — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 05:07:18 -0000

Mark Schlabach sees a resurgence at Duke, where others may just see victories over one team that won't make its own conference tournament and another that was .500 over its last eight games. That resurgence has a name, and that name is Elliot Williams. Williams, you see, had four steals and a perimeter defense that held Jeff Teague to a mere twenty-eight points. Or, as Rush the Court put it, "So Jeff Teague having his way with you is a credential for good point guard play."

But what really irritated me was the last paragraph:

Much to the surprise of Gaudio, the Blue Devils beat the Demon Deacons at their own game. By using a quicker lineup (junior center Brian Zoubek, who started 17 of Duke's first 20 games, never even left the bench) and a bigger point guard, Duke was able to take away many of Wake Forest's biggest strengths. The Demon Deacons' superior post players never became much of a factor because they couldn't keep up with the frenetic pace on the floor, and Teague and Smith struggled to defend taller players.

They measure the pace of games, now. The Duke-Wake match had 73 possessions, which is one of the lowest totals for the Deacons this season. Wake had 89 possessions against UNC, and the big men kept up just fine. Wake has been dialing back their big men's playing time for weeks now, going with smaller, quicker lineups. The Deacons were taken down by Duke's superior shooting and their myriad of turnovers, as well as a spate of fouls once they cut the lead to two with seven minutes to play. (In fact, eight of the Blue Devils next ten points came from the line.) So don't lay everything at the (extensively moving) feet of Williams just yet; wait and see how the last four games play out.

Duke Preview

MRickman84 — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 22:33:07 -0000

We're up and we're doing it live.

via www.oldgoldandblack.com

No better way to be up and running than hours away from the showdown between the #4 Demon Deacons and the #1Duke Blue Devils at the Joel. The game is one of the biggest home games that the Deacs have ever had. #1 is coming into town just seven days after Wake Forest, ranked #1 themselves, fell to Virginia Tech. That game left the Deacs with a lot to work on and there is no doubt that Head Coach Dino Gaudio has the guys prepared to take on the Dookies.

Analysis and Prediction after the jump...

Last year at the Joel, Wake Forest had their biggest win of the year over Duke and in the game the Blue Devils had all five starters foul out in route to a 86-73 Demon Deacon win. The collapse after that game has been well-documented, but the win was still on heck of a win and exposed Duke--which had trouble the rest of the season (and lost in the second round in the NCAA Tournament to West Virginia).

This year's game finds both teams at a far different place than they were a year ago. The Blue Devils have been playing absolutely out of their minds since their loss to Michigan--tearing through teams like Georgetown and Davidson and recently laying a beatdown on Maryland at Cameron. They're doing it with a mix of stifling defense and the strong play of their starting lineup--which has seen a big improvement by Scheyer and Nolan Smith and the continued consistency of Singler and Henderson. Zoubek still sucks and Lance Thomas is not very good at basketball, but Duke gets stops, forces turnovers and hits their shots: a recipe that always spells success in the ACC.

The Deacs addressed their two biggest problems from a year ago: depth and defense. The team has bought into Dino Gaudio's defensive philosphy (lifted from Dick Bennett) in which the team uses its length to stop the ball, push shooters away form the hoop, deny entry passes, and stop drives on the baseline. This has led to opponents shooting under 40% on FGs and under 30% on three-pointers. This coupled with this year's freshman class and the explosion of Jeff Teague (not to mention the leadership of James Johnson) has seen the Deacs at 16-1 with wins over Baylor, BYU, UNC and Clemson.

The biggest place to note the improvement of this team is in road wins. The last few years Wake Forest hasn't been able to buy a win on the road, but this year--on neutral and road floors--they have won some very big games: three wins in Anaheim, wins at BYU, Richmond and ECU and ACC wins at BC (first time ever!) and at Clemson. These wins have shown the growth and increased maturity of a team that previously crumbled under pressure.

Virginia Tech aside, this Wake Forest team is very good. The thing is, so is Duke. Duke is well-coached obviously and very disciplined and also has a team (like the Deacs this year) that has bought into the "team" philosophy. This game will be a battle.

Keys to victory:

1.) Limit Duke to under 40% shooting. Duke hits shots. Plain and simple, and against Virginia Tech, the Deacs did a horrible job of rotation and switching on defense and the Hokies made them pay. Wake Forest needs to get back to playing hard on every defensive possession.

2.) Turn Duke over. If this happens, coupled with forcing Duke to take tough shots, the Deacs will be able to do what they do best: run, run and run. Transition buckets are a big key to winning this game.

3.) Pound it inside. Plain and simple, Duke is not a very strong team in the post. Zoubek is a stiff. Lance Thomas can be pushed around. Singler is good, but he can be overmatched by more phsyical players. NC State had a lot of success just last week by getting the ball inside. Wake Forest, who is bigger, stronger and more effective in the post than State, should be able to exploit this the entire game. This is where they won the game last year and was the primary reason for Duke fouling out their whole starting five. The Deacs need to find ways to get Johnson, Aminu, McFarland, Woods, Weaver or whoever is down on the blocks the ball.

4.) Let Teague go crazy. Teague has seemed to take his foot off the accelerator in the second half the last couple games. Despite his high turnover rate lately, he has done a better job of letting the game come to him, but the problem is that in doing this (and this is James Johnson's biggest problem too), he has gotten too unselfish at times. He needs to demand the ball and go up strong with it without fear. When he does this, the team rallys behind him. Duke plays great perimeter defense, but if you attack the middle, you will have success.

If the Deacs do those four things, with the home crowd behind them, they can win this game and beat a very good Duke team.

Prediction: Despite a tight game, the Deacs will come out for blood and will dethrone #1 on the same floor where they lost their #1 ranking last week.

WFU- 75

Duke- 71

Getting Ready For 08-09 Ben Ball Season: Predictions/Expectations & Concerns

Nestor — Thu, 23 Oct 2008 12:00:06 -0000

With just 11 days to go till tip off, time for us to go through what has become somewhat of an annual rite of passage here on Bruin Nation. We started this in 2005, and continued it in both 2006 and 2007. Well, I think each of those three seasons turned out pretty good (with lots of fist pounds, Ben Ball style):

Photo Credit: Lisa Blumenfeld/Getty Images (via mikireynolds' photostream(flickr))

So, I think for mojo purposes, we have no choice but go to through the exercise again in 2008. Again given all the discussions we have had on BN over the years, I don’t see the need to go through the differences between pre season expectations and predictions. You can look through all our previous posts (dealing with both Ben Ball and football) re. discussion on those terms. As we go through the schedule, all we are doing is trying to come up with a baseline number of wins we expect from this year’s schedule, come up with a list of our main concerns and questions, and then take it from there.

It is undisputed now that Coach Howland has thoroughly reestablished UCLA as one of the elite programs in the country. Given what Howland has built in Westwood, these posts are even more fun to write because we can do so with the confidence that we have a coach who not only has all the questions we have on our mind in his own radar, but has every detail around this program covered. Still I think it is important for us to be aware that despite all the good news around our program, there are issues Howland has to address, before dreaming about another magical run through the regular and the tournament season. With that in mind here is a very rough predictions for this upcoming season:

Wed., Nov. 12, 2K Sports Classic First Round (w)
Thu., Nov. 13, 2K Sports Classic Second Round (#)
Thu., Nov. 20, 2K Sports Classic Semifinals (#)
Fri., Nov. 21, 2K Sports Classic Final (#)
Sat., Nov. 29, Florida International (w)
Thu., Dec. 4, @Texas (#)
Sun., Dec. 7, Cal State Northridge (w)
Sat., Dec. 13, DePaul @ Wooden Classic (w)
Wed., Dec. 17, Loyola Marymount (w)
Sat., Dec. 20, Mercer (w)
Tue., Dec. 23, Wyoming (w)
Sun., Dec. 28, Louisiana Tech (w)
Fri., Jan. 2, @ Oregon State (w)
Sun., Jan. 4, @ Oregon (#)
Sun., Jan. 11, @ USC (w)
Thu., Jan. 15, Arizona (w)
Sat., Jan. 17, Arizona State (w)
Thu., Jan. 22, @ Washington State (#)
Sat., Jan. 24, @ Washington (#)
Thu., Jan. 29, California (w)
Sat., Jan. 31, Stanford (w)
Wed., Feb. 4, USC (w)
Sat., Feb. 7, Notre Dame (w)
Thu., Feb. 12, @ Arizona State (#)
Sat., Feb. 14, @ Arizona (#)
Thu., Feb. 19, Washington (w)
Sat., Feb. 21, Washington State (w)
Thu., Feb. 26, @ Stanford (w)
Sat., Feb. 28, @ California (#)
Thu., Mar. 5, Oregon State (w)
Sat., Mar. 7, Oregon (w)
Mar. 11-14, Pac-10 Tournament @ Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA
Mar. 19-22, NCAA First and Second Round
Mar. 26-29, NCAA Regional
Apr. 4 & 6, NCAA Final Four

So just like last year I didn’t mark any game as losses because I believe with Coach Howland in charge and veterans like DC and JS leading on the court, our team will play to win every game. That said, I did mark the following games as toss ups (#):

Thu., Nov. 13, 2K Sports Classic Second Round (#)
Thu., Nov. 20, 2K Sports Classic Semifinals (#)
Fri., Nov. 21, 2K Sports Classic Final (#)
Thu., Dec. 4, @Texas (#)
Sun., Jan. 4, @ Oregon (#)
Thu., Jan. 22, @ Washington State (#)
Sat., Jan. 24, @ Washington (#)
Thu., Feb. 12, @ Arizona State (#)
Sat., Feb. 14, @ Arizona (#)
Sat., Feb. 28, @ California (#)

Let’s start with the Sports Classic tournament. If you haven’t seen it yet, here is the bracket (pdf file). It’s not too difficult to discern from that bracket that the organizers are dreaming about a UCLA-Michigan semifinal, leading up to a UCLA-Duke final in NYC. Well that sounds nice, but for a team with 5 freshmen and serious questions re. front court (more on that below), it would be very unwise to all of us to look past the opening round games.

I especially think the Bruins might have a difficult game against either Weber State or Miami (OH), two mid-major teams that are capable of pulling off an upset against a young team. I am actually more concerned about this home game than the ones v. Notre Dame and other quality Pac-10 opponents rest of the season because I think it will present the first real test for our freshmen in terms of facing a tourney caliber opposition. Otherwise, I feel pretty confident about rest of our home schedule as the freshmen will go through their development under Howland.

If the Bruins get to NYC after winning the first two games, they will probably take on a Michigan team with Beilein’s 1-3-1 trap zone, that has always created problems for our Ben Ball warriors (remember we had to scrap out a win against them last year after losing to Beilein’s West Va team for two years in a row). I would expect Michigan to be a much improved team in Beilein’s second year who will also have talented kids like Manny Harris, DeShawn Sims and Kelvin Grady to build on his first year. And then if we are lucky to get to the final against a team like Duke, we will take them on in a setting at MSG, which I think will have a crowd leaning towards Duke (we will see). Duke has their front court issues to address but they will have their share of talents and experience in kids like Singler, Scheyer, Paulus, Thomas, Zoubek playing under K.

As far as rest of non conference season is concerned, Texas obviously stands out as the toughest challenge during the non conference season. Augustin is gone but Abrams is back along with Connor Atchley, Damion James, and Justin Mason. It will be a tough challenge for DC and rest of his team-mates to pull out a win in Austin, but if they are focused and locked in remembering what took place at Pauley last season, we will have a shot. Still right now I look at this game as a toss up.

As for rest of the Pac-10, I marked up the Oregon game as a toss up because I think the Mac Court in Eugene is probably the toughest road venue in the conference. Oregon lost a lot of talent with the departures of Hairston, Leunen and Bryce Taylor. They are one of the questions marks in the Pac-10. However, they will still present a threat on the road with speed junior Tajuan Porter leading the charge at pg. If they can get solid contributions from Joevan Catron and Kamyron Brown, I think that game will turn out to be tough. Bruins have learned the hard way over the years (from 1994 (the year we won the title) from 2006) what happens when not playing with focus and intensity in that arena.

As for rest of the Pac-10, Arizona under Lute Olson are going to be hungry for revenge for all the recent beat downs by Ben Ball warriors. Again I always like our chances, but it will still be a challenge to go up against a team featuring talents of Budinger, Wise, and Jordan Hill. Meanwhile, ASU is poised to have their best season under Sendek era with two returning stars in James Pendergraph and James Harden.

As for other Pac-10 teams Monty’s return to Bay Area should make the Bears interesting (and a tough out on their home court). Washington schools will not be pushovers either. Wazzu lost their heat and soul through the departures of Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver. But they still have a solid coach who will have solid nucleus of upperclassmen of Taylor Rochestie, Aron Baynes, and Daven Harmeling to put together another well coached and fundamentally sound team. Washington Huskies will have Jon Brockman anchoring the middle. Plus they are getting back Venoy Overton, who DC might see in his night mares time to time. Throw in the mix with a like Justin Dentmon and Quincy Pondexter, this is a team that will once again make our lives difficult if not nightmarish on the road.

So with all that, I see starting out with a baseline of 21 W’s with this year’s team. Last year the baseline was set at 25 W’s. Just like last year, I think our final win total will far exceed that baseline (which I think is the worst case scenario), however, there are number of issues our coaches have to be concerned about heading into this season. Meriones already laid out his concern last week. Here are questions on my mind heading into this season:

Darren Collison’s Decision Making

I am sure some of you are going WTF from the title of this section, but please allow me to elaborate. It's a pretty good bet that DC is going to finish his senior season as a consensus All American. IMHO he is the point guard not just in the Pac-10, but in the entire country. Again I will cite to the following comments from Coach Howland re. why he is the ultimate leader around which a coach would want to build his team around:

"Darren's going to have the ball in his hands a lot, and he's always been our defensive point guard. This is a kid that could lead the conference in three-point and free-throw percent-age, assists and steals."

Yet notwithstanding DC's greatness, I think there is some room for improvement for this great Bruin guard. I think if DC has an Achilles heel it is his decisiveness as the floor general while we are on offense. Let me see if I can explain this. From what I have seen from DC in last three years, it seems at times he needs to be a little more authorative around his decisions on whether to take the shot or pass it off to his team-mates. In his defense in his first three years at UCLA, in terms of scoring he had more prolific scorers in AA, JF and then KL (a once a generation freshman) to which he often gave up the ball to. However, at times it seemed like UCLA offense lagged a bit as DC was waiting around to make his final decisions. So, I think this year we might see a little less of that as DC will be one of the primary scorers in our offense. In that case, I think DC needs to be a just tick faster in making his decisions on whether to launch or drive for his shot rather than passing off to another team-mate. We need DC to be more aggressive in decision making and hopefully his unquestioned stature as the senior leader will make the process a little easier.

Consistency from Josh Shipp

This one is easy. This could be the year in which we get to see JS from his freshman season. I have already alluded to this in my post re. Blue Ribbon yearbook's UCLA preview. JS has probably been the most maligned (somewhat unfairly IMHO) Ben Ball warrior from Coach Howland's (now legendary) first recruiting class. When he burst into the scene along with JF, AA, LMR we instantly fell in love with his defensive intensity, his nose for the ball, and always picking up points through hustle (which endeared LRMAM to us in his freshman season).

Sadly after three seasons of surgeries, nagging injuries and recovery, we never really got to see the JS from his freshman season on a consistent basis. Meanwhile, we have had beat reporters and message board posters constantly psycho analyzing this kid's ability to nail down three pointers (even though he had his share of clutch shots). Also on a fair point we all have been collectively frustrated by JS's tendency to not match the defensive tenacity that exemplifies a prototype Ben Ball Warrior who brings it not just in every game but every play.

Now that JS is fully healthy there is a chance we can see JS from his freshman season, who foreshadowed the kind of Ben Ball we have been accustomed to courtesy of warriors such as LRMAM and RW last three seasons Interestingly CBH has dropped hint that we may see JS spend some time at the 4 (which caught JS by surprise). That might not be a bad deal because it could be a move to field a guard heavy lineup exerting even more tenacious defensive pressure. Remember Howland did the same thing in his second year playing DT at the 4.

Ultimately, I think if JS were to have a memorable last season at UCLA, it will have to be centered around his total commitment to all out defense, sheer tenacity and hustle, that will allow him to emerge as the replacement of LRMAM in this year's squad. If he brings that defensive tenacity and then let his offensive instincts take over within the scheme of Howland's offense, JS might break out with one of the more memorable final year, a Bruin senior has put together in some time. Given what the kid has been through you can bet we all are going to be rooting for him. This brings me to the next point.

Defensive Stopper

So who will be the defensive stopper of this year's edition of Ben Ball warriors. Until last year it was unquestionably AA. Then last year it was a combination of RW and LRMAM. If we need to neutralize opponent's primary scoring threat, Howland would usually sic RW or LRMAM as his shut down defender. We saw how LRMAM's absence often impacted not just the physical presence in our interior defense, but all the aggressiveness of our perimeter. So who will step up this year and take the responsibility of the primary attack dogs in Howland's defensive scheme?

DC? JS? DC will have no choice but to step up with his defense and this will be crucial because he has had difficulties with faster and more physical guards (just think about the Memphis game from last season or the matchups against the guards from Texas and Oregon (on Mac Court). I mentioned JS's need to focus on every play, not just ever game. I think the success of this year's UCLA basketball team will be hugely dependent on the veteran leadership of DC and JS on defense (more so than offense). They have the responsibility to carry on the tradition of defensive tenacity that Coach Howland has established thanks to the efforts of AA, LRMAM, RW, and LMR.

Productive Minutes From AA2

I mentioned LMR above. This is where AA2 comes in. We are going to need productive mins from AA2 for this team to contend for the Pac-10 title and position itself with a favorable high seed from the West. I love the intensity and aggression AA2 brings to every game. It's apparent that Coach Howland absolutely love the way he is all about defense. But from the early practice reports this season, it is apparent he wants AA2 to bring more to the table than his hard nosed (no pun intended here) defense around the rim. We can't have AA2 go into his bull in a china shop routine he often fell into time to time last season by fouling out too fast. We had that luxury last season because we had a kid like KL and the experience of LMR. With a inexperience and young front court, we don't have that luxury any more. I don't think AA2 needs to tone down his intensity, but he just needs to figure out a way to be a little more disciplined and make his minutes more productive through his defense and rebounds. Also, he should probably chuck the idea of he is some kind of jump shooter.

James Keefe Taking The Next Steps

As eager as everyone is about the start of this basketball season, not sure how many are looking forward to it as much as JK. JK is yet another Ben Ball warrior who is coming into this season at 100 percent (knock on wood) for the first time in while. I am sure many remember here how he got hurt last off season and had to go through shoulder surgery, which really stunted his expected development in his sophomore year. After deciding to red shirt year, per Howland's request JK burned his medical redshirt year, and came on strong late during the stretch run. He particular stepped up in a big way, when LRMAM went down with ankle injury against Southern Cal during the Pac-10 tournament. Not only did he chip in with solid scoring, he came up with key rebounds and solid defense. According to off season reports, JK is now up to 237 lbs and Howland has been fired up about his off season work outs.

I think JK is the guy to watch out for as someone who might have a breakout season. I like how this kid always plays within Howland's scheme. He does all the little things – set picks, box out, always look for open team-mates – that often doesn't show up in the score board. To go with that I think he has decent offensive skills down low, which until now has not been needed given the options we have has last few years. If JK can take the next step and perform at the same level he did during both the Pac-10 and NCAA tourneys last season on more consistent basis, it will be a huge boost to this year's team.

Freshmen Development

Speaking of development, this brings me to our Fab Five. I would strongly caution everyone here expecting from our freshman what we saw out of KL last season.

Let’s make this simple. The kind of production and contribution we saw out of KL last season was not normal. KL was special. He was once in a generational talent who doesn't come around often. I am not sure how long it will take until we get to see another kid like KL, but it would be incredibly unfair and unreasonable to hold our current freshman blue chippers to the same level of expectations as we had for KL (and if anyone makes that kind of comparison, he or she will be banned for stupidity from this community).

So now that is out of the way … it will be interesting to see how Howland brings these new cubs up. I think it will probably be JH who might break in the lineup right away but I think it will also take a talent like him a while to adjust to the defensive intensity required to earn Coach Howland's total trust. I would also urge a lot of patience when we are watching Bobo and DG. Those guys are very raw in terms of their defensive and offensive skills on both sides of the court. We have already read reports about how Howland is starting from scratch with these kids in teaching skills such as how to hedge screens, which is pre requisite for big guys playing Ben Ball defense. No doubt they will get mins early because of our lack of experience depth on the front court, however it will take them a while (perhaps more than a year to get settled in).

As for ML and JA, JA is still recovering from a nagging groin injury and remember even a super star like RW was only averaging 9.0 mins a game as a true freshman under Howland.

So, I would pipe down the expectations level if I were fanboys of ML and JA. They will get some mins and opportunities to make their contributions this upcoming season, however, they will have to earn those mins by their commitment to total defense in practices and during those early OOC games (which might not look too enticing who don't appreciate the total nuances of Howland's scheduling philosophy) in preparation for the conference season.

Health Issues

I will end my run through the questions by going through health issues. Here Mike Roll is the biggest question mark. We have talked about the health issues of JS and JK above. Those kids are finally healthy (knocking on wood). The situation is unclear about MR. While MR is feeling better and has been working out and most likely will be practicing, it is not certain (I haven't seen any reports yet) whether he will ever be completely recovered from the nasty plantar faciatis injury he suffered last season. I also like MR's game a lot. His 3 point shooting has suffered a lot in last two years due to injury issues, but he also does all the little things which includes playing defense, setting picks, that has endeared him to Coach Howland in recent years. I hope for MR's sake he is feeling better and if he can rediscover his rhythm as a shooter while working through his injury issues, it will be a big help for the team.

Also, it's a bummer that ND is dealing with a nagging health issue (cyst involving left foot and ankle) to start the season. I had heard that he was having a good off season following last year's tough one when he had hernia surgeries.

Let's hope ND's injury will get healed up and he will be ready to contribute soon. For him to contribute though, not surprisingly it will have to start on that defensive end. I don't think he is going to earn his mins by jacking up long bombs whenever he gets in. He will have to earn his mins the old fashioned way. If his latest injury doesn't set him back too much, hopefully he will be able to translate the hard off season work (which I heard he put in last few months) into meaningful mins in terms of solid defense and opportunistic scoring this season.

Same goes for JA, whose health issues I linked to above. I imagine Coach Howland will work him in slowly making sure he is completely healed up before asking him to step in. The good news is that they are progressing well and early reports sound encouraging. But given how physical and rough (for good reasons) Coach Howland’s practices are inside Pauley, we always have to be on the look out for issues related to nagging bumps and bruises.

So, those are some of the issues I can think of as we get underway in Coach Howland's sixth season in Westwood. I believe given all the questions we have to address, a top-5 ranking for our team could be a bit too high. I think are probably more somewhere in the top-10. However, I have full confidence that Coach Howland and his staff are all over these questions and others we haven't even thought off heading into this season. They will be chipping away every hour in practice and in the film rooms, getting these warriors prepared for what should hopefully be another fun ride in Westwood:

Photo Source: mikireynolds' photostream (flickr)

Before we start dreaming about those moments again, the goal right now for this team is to improve game by game, and then get itself in best position to compete and defend our conference title in February and March. Then, if they can get themselves a favorable seed in the Western region, based on a consistent development and improvement through the regular season, we will buckle up and once again take our chances with our head coach and his Ben Ball warriors.

GO BRUINS.