SB Nation - Marcus Ginyard

Texas 103, UNC 90

T.H. — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 21:36:43 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

3 days ago: Fans and media look on as Texas guard Damion James (5) shoots in the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against North Carolina, Saturday, Dec. 19, 2009, in Arlington, Texas. The teams played on a basketball court that was raised roughly two feet off the ground in the first event basketball event at the stadium. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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In the Kentucky game it was three points. Today it was four. That's the margin in each game that UNC had fought back to after being down by double-digit margins for most of the second half. They cut it to four (or three) have the ball and all of the momentum... and the Heels just go stupid. Here are the possessions immediately following UNC cutting the score to 82-78: a missed Larry Drew three that shouldn't have been taken, a Will Graves turnover, a Tyler Zeller layup, a Marcus Ginyard turnover before crossing midcourt, and a Larry Drew turnover. Two minutes and fifteen seconds of clock, and all of a sudden the core is 91-80, Texas. The Heels wouldn't get closer than nine the rest of the way. Pathetic.

Of course, that one stretch isn't what cost Carolina game. It was quite simply the Texas players under the basket snatching rebounds right and left. John Gasaway may not like rebounding margin, but here it tells the entire story. UNC had 37. Texas had 54. 25 of those were offensive rebounds; Dexter Pittman alone had 12 of those (27 overall), more offensive boards than the entire UNC team. The Heels were pushed around like they weren't even there. It doesn't do any good to hold Texas to 41 percent shooting if they just get to keep trying until the ball goes in, and forty percent of their misses found their way back into Longhorn hands.

It's especially frustrating since Carolina was doing so well elsewhere on the court. They had nine blocks and were a remarkable 7 for 13 in three pointers. It was possibly the best game of Dexter Strickland's and Tyler Zeller's young careers. But the turnovers were still there (17, with 11 Texas steals, and Texas doesn't typically steal the ball) , Deon Thompson was a complete no-factor, and every rebound seemed to find its way into Dexter Pittman's hands. Roy Williams can't be happy with this performance, which goes against everything he likes to see in a performance. The team can't be happy, especially Marcus Ginyard, who seemed to have the weight of the entire team on his back at the end. It's another brutal loss against a really good team, but it has to grate knowing that a good performance on the boards would have easily flipped this into the win column. Carolina is left with a long Christmas break with a few cupcakes sprinkled here and there on the schedule. I can hope they'll learn from this, and use it come ACC season, but right now the Heels are failing on the national stage more often than they're winning. That's going to have to change.

Ask The Enemy: Texas vs North Carolina

Peter Bean — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 02:50:26 -0000

More photos » by Michael Thomas - AP

He is big. He is sexy. Dexter Pittman is Big Sexy.

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Texas faces by far their stiffest of the season on Saturday when they travel to Jerryworld to battle North Carolina on the hardwood (1:00 CT, ESPN). I asked Carolina March to help prep us on the Tar Heels. Our Q&A is below.

We'll get to the game momentarily, but first: In 2007-08, had no one defected early to the NBA, Texas could have sent out the following starting line up:

PG: DJ Augustin (Sophomore)
SG: Daniel Gibson (Senior)
G/F: Kevin Durant (Sophomore)
F: PJ Tucker (Senior)
C: LaMarcus Aldridge (Senior)

I'm certain early attrition has prevented North Carolina from fielding an equally jaw-dropping line up. Give us the Tar Heels' equivalent (from the last 10 years or so), and give us your take on the match up with our Dream Team.

Carolina March: One of the keys to UNC's success the past couple of year's is that they've kept players for three to four years, so the ideal, nobody-defects teams aren't that much different from what you actually saw on the court. So yeah, a 2006 team that kept the core of the previous year's national championship squad (Sean May, Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton and Marvin Williams) and added Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard would be pretty awesome. As would the 2007 and 2008 squads, which would take Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard and Williams and add Brandan Wright, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington. If nobody graduates, there's a solid three years where UNC fields a team with six or more NBA players.

But Carolina fans have also lived through seasons like 1993-1994, where a championship team returned everybody but George Lynch and then added freshmen Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, and Jeff McInnis, only to have the team deliver the earliest NCAA tournament exit in fifteen-plus years. So I'll take what we got, two national championships in five years and a host of good performances in between.

UNC has played three Top 40 teams already, defeating Ohio State (77-73) and Michigan State (89-82), while dropping a pair to Syracuse (87-71) and Kentucky (68-66). The Longhorns, meanwhile, haven't even played a Top 50 team yet. Two related questions, then: First, it has appeared to me that UNC has been improving along the way -- is that fair to say? And second, do you expect the tougher competition (and improvement along the way) to be a meaningful advantage for UNC?

Carolina March: The team has definitely improved, and I do think the level of competition has played a big part in that. With a team as young as this one – at least five freshman get significant playing time – I don't think sheltering them for the first half of the season with a diet of cupcakes would have been very helpful. How it will help them over the entire season is debatable; it may only gain them a couple of early wins in the ACC as they're more up to speed, or it may have no effect whatsoever. Even if it's the latter, I'd still prefer this type of scheduling, as games against Kentucky and Texas are much more fun to watch as a fan than having the team be undefeated and higher ranked at the end of December.

How this scheduling will help against Texas is less clear. I'd like to think that the Longhorns inexperience coupled with Carolina's scheduling gives them a great opportunity to come out strong, put Texas on their heels and watch them self-destruct as they've failed to encounter serious competition so far this season. But I thought the same thing about Kentucky, and they handled an early UNC barrage without batting an eye, and went on to win. Rick Barnes seems pretty good at keeping his players focused.

How good is Ed Davis? Like, does his badassage make you snicker a little when you think about other teams not having Ed Davis? And most importantly, is he as Sexy as Dexter Pittman? Thoughts on this match up? Does he have the strength at 225 to deal with Big Sexy?

Carolina March: First of all, please never use the words "Big" and "Sexy" in conjunction in an e-mail to me again. [No deal. --ed] Now, the baddassage of Ed Davis has for the most part been hidden under a bushel this season. He's played well, but there's an expectation that he'll completely take over a game, and so far that hasn't been the case. Some of that's due to the fact that the current system makes it difficult to put everything in the hands of one big man, and there's also the fact that in following Tyler Hansborough, the fans' expectations may be a little to high for any sophomore to live up to. Either way, it feels like he's on the cusp of truly destroying a big-name opponent, and everyone's on the edge of their seats waiting for that to happen, rather than just enjoying the moment.

The interesting thing about matching up with Pittman is that it probably won't be Ed Davis on him most of the time. Deon Thompson is the bigger body, and there's a string of players 6'10" and taller coming off the bench, all with different strengths. I'd expect the Heels to keep throwing different bodies at Pittman on both ends of the court to keep him off guard and hopefully push him into foul trouble early.

We know that UNC plays fast, but at the moment it seems to be coming at the expense of a pretty poor turnover rate. Tell us about UNC's tempo and style of play, and the turnovers issue?

Carolina March: Rapid play has always lead to more turnovers, and it's a trade-off for the most part that Roy Willams has been willing to expect. An errant pass on a fast break is no worse than failing to get an offensive rebound on a set play, and as long as it doesn't lead to fast break in the opposite direction, there's little harm done. That being said, UNC has given up more steals than I would like, which was particularly deadly against Syracuse and Kentucky. They're a young team still working out some kinks, but a good defensive team can take advantage of that pretty easily.

There's no question that the Tar Heels have more than enough speed and athleticism to play with Texas, but I wonder about whether they're prepared for Texas' exceptionally physical style of play. We're not talking Big East Brute-icism here, but the Longhorns don't mind banging and play intense, physical defense. Does UNC neutralize that with their speed? How did you think they fared against a similarly physical and defensive-minded Kentucky squad?

Carolina March: I don't think the speed really does neutralize anything, especially since Carolina likes to run off of defensive rebounds. If Texs beats them up enough inside that they can't get those rebounds, the Heels are in trouble. What you may be underestimating is the sheer number of players Carolina can rotate into the post. They've got six players who can legitimately play center (Thompson, Davis, Zeller, Henson, and the two Wear brothers) and although many of them are young and not all that muscular - Henson in particular could use a couple hundred sandwiches - their height and fresh legs could draw the Texas big men into serious foul trouble. Don't forget, Rick Barnes once had to finish a game against UNC with only four players on the court the foul situation was so dire.

[You're absolutely right that I underestimated the Tar Heels size (and by a lot), although equally to blame was writing questions for UNC and MSU at the same time, during which I completely mixed up the size of UNC. In any case, it makes all the difference in the world for how UNC can, and perhaps should, play Texas. --ed]

Give us four signs -- two positive, two negative -- that, upon seeing them develop in the game, will make you cackle with delight / cringe in fear about the outcome.

Carolina March: Early frustration on the faces of Texas players will be the most promising sign, whether by denying them rebounds, dragging them into foul trouble early, or just altering shots with height the Longhorns aren't used to seeing. Couple that with good outside shooting early to prevent Texas from collapsing on the inside on defense, and I'll be thrilled right off the bat. On the other hand, if UNC can't get the ball inside without putting in the opposing teams' hands, I'll begin to cringe. And if they go into full-out panic mode, with rushed shots, poor ball movement, and the stretches of play that killed them against Syracuse and Kentucky, well, I'll be hiding my head under a pillow by the second half.

UNC 103, Presbyterian 64

T.H. — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 00:38:19 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

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Sometimes, the postgame interviews tell you everything you need to know about a game. And when the two biggest topics of conversation coming out of Saturday's game were a) the players that didn't play and b) that Roy Williams got an opposing fan tossed from the place, well, you know you didn't miss much of a game.

The big news was the sitting of Marcus Ginyard and Dexter Strickland for minor injuries, which bumped Justin Watts into a starting role and Marc Campbell to the first point guard off the bench. Presbyterian, of course, had already gone the Heels one better, by red shirting all three of their returning starters for the season, to stockpile talent for next year when they join the Big South. And that's all you need to know, really.

For the record, Watts was on the court for 23 minutes and Campbell 14; both had three assists apiece. The game was mostly put away by the Heels' big men, as you'd expect against a team that played two players taller than 6'6". The Heels managed 48 rebounds, only Travis Wear had more than one foul (he had two), and everyone got a nice little post-exam workout. If you want to worry about anything, you can fret over the fact that a Blue Hose player tied his school's single-scorer record against Carolina. Of course that was only 29 points, and you figure someone has to get the team to 64, so why not Chase Holmes?

The Heels get to spend the week preparing for Texas and worrying about the health of their guards. The Blue Hose will return home to the largest bronze statue of a Scotsman in the world before playing Ohio State.

And the fan removal? Either it was a drunk fan in the wrong seat or a complete abuse of power. I can't really bring myself to care.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Kentucky Wildcats: Pre-game analysis

Truzenzuzex — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 23:17:30 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

We hope to see a lot of this out of the Big Cuz tomorrow.

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Obviously, the UNC contest at Rupp Arena tomorrow is a big, big game for the team, but even more so for the fans, who are very tired of losing to our neighbor to the east.

The Tar Heels are young, but not nearly as young as Kentucky is. The Tar Heels start two seniors, a junior and two sophomores.

North Carolina is perhaps the only team in America that is taller and longer than the Wildcats are. The Heels go 6'10", 6'9" and 6'6" across the front line, and have four reserves 6'10" or taller. UK is taller across the starting lineup, but the 'Cats do not have quite as much height on the bench.

UNC is 7-1, their only loss coming in convincing fashion at Madison Square Garden versus Syracuse. That game was over with about 3 minutes still left to play, but the men in powder blue came back and beat a highly ranked Michigan State team in Chapel Hill just a few nights ago in the ACC-Big Ten challenge. In that game, the Tar Heels played extremely well at times, and that game tap has provided some sobering images for the UK staff and players.

What we will be doing today is presenting you with an extremely high-tech visualization of the comparative statistics of this game. This service has been provided by A Sea of Blue member Sylvar, and it is gobsmackingly awesome. I think no other blog can match this new style of graphical stats delivery, and I'm sure you will enjoy it. But remember, this was Sylvar's work, not mine, so be sure to thank him.

Also, for the Carolina perspective, be sure to visit SB Nation's excellent North Carolina Tar Heels blog, Carolina March.

More after the jump.

Four Factors Analysis

First off, I want to point out that this display is interactive. If you move the sliders just under the trend graph, you can zoom in on various slices of the series to see how they have done in smaller segments. The dials on the right indicate ranges from red (worse) to yellow (okay) to green (good) based on the average values of the top ten teams from last year.

As you can see by the offensive efficiency trends on the top chart, Kentucky has been trending better than the Tar Heels since about the fourth game of the season. In the last game vs. UNC-Ashville, UK's OE was at it's peak so far this season, but still just a bit below the peak UNC achieved vs. Valparaiso.

Defensively, you have to keep in mind that lower is better. UK's DE has been much worse than UNC's through the first four games. From game five (Cleveland St.) on, UK's DE has been improving, and the two team's efficiencies on defense have effectively merged. But you can see that UNC's peak DE has been much better than the best UK has put out there so far. This is largely a function of having more experienced players, most likely.

Moving down to the Four Factors, you can see that these two teams are almost dead even statistically. The green bar is the average statistic for the top ten teams from last year, just to have something to compare with. You will note that neither UK nor UNC are at top ten efficiency yet.

Another interesting thing is that UNC turns the ball over almost as much as UK does. That's partially a function of how many possessions they have per game as a function of their high tempo, but it is a bit surprising to see that a more experienced team like UNC is having as many problems with turnovers as a mostly-freshman UK.

Moving on to the defense, we see that UNC is the better team right now, but UK seems to be forcing a few more turnovers and doing a better job on the defensive glass. UK's free throw rate is very high, and that could be a major factor in the game as time goes on.

In the miscellaneous cateory, we see that both teams shoot a similar 3-point FG%, but UNC takes more 3-point shots per field goal attempt.

Next, we'll look at the players for the Tar Heels, and their stats:

North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Roster

	#	Pos.	Comments	W	H	College
Marc Campbell	2	G	-	175	6-0	senior
Ed Davis	32	F	Starter	225	6-10	sophomore
Larry Drew II	11	G	Starter	180	6-2	sophomore
James Gallagher	35	F	-	185	6-4	senior
Marcus Ginyard	1	G	Starter	210	6-5	senior
Will Graves	13	F	Starter	240	6-6	junior
John Henson	31	F	-	195	6-10	freshman
Leslie McDonald	15	G	-	215	6-4	freshman
Terrence Petree	14	G	-	165	6-1	senior
Dexter Strickland	5	G	-	180	6-3	freshman
Deon Thompson	21	F	Starter	245	6-9	senior
Thomas Thornton	30	G	-	180	6-3	senior
Justin Watts	24	G	-	210	6-4	sophomore
David Wear	34	F	-	225	6-10	freshman
Travis Wear	43	F	-	235	6-10	freshman
Tyler Zeller	44	F	-	240	7-0	sophomore

North Carolina Statistics

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Deon Thompson	8	27.4	6.4	11.8	54.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	4.5	5.6	80.0	3.6	4.6	8.3	1.4	2.8	1.0	0.6	1.6	17.3
Ed Davis	8	25.4	5.3	7.5	70.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.4	5.3	64.3	2.9	6.5	9.4	1.5	2.1	0.5	2.4	1.6	13.9
Marcus Ginyard	8	30.9	4.3	7.6	55.7	1.3	2.6	47.6	1.4	2.4	57.9	1.4	2.3	3.6	4.5	2.5	2.0	0.1	0.8	11.1
Tyler Zeller	8	15.8	3.8	6.5	57.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.9	73.9	1.5	2.5	4.0	0.4	0.8	0.4	1.0	1.9	9.6
Larry Drew II	8	25.5	3.0	5.4	55.8	1.1	2.4	47.4	1.9	2.8	68.2	0.1	2.1	2.3	6.6	3.0	0.9	0.0	2.4	9.0
Will Graves	8	18.4	2.5	6.6	37.7	1.0	3.4	29.6	1.0	1.3	80.0	1.1	2.6	3.8	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.1	1.0	7.0
Travis Wear	8	9.0	1.4	2.8	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	1.0	87.5	1.1	1.0	2.1	0.1	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.8	3.6
John Henson	8	10.6	1.4	3.0	45.8	0.1	0.6	20.0	0.5	1.3	40.0	0.6	2.0	2.6	1.3	0.4	0.6	1.3	0.5	3.4
Dexter Strickland	8	13.4	1.3	3.1	40.0	0.3	1.1	22.2	0.5	1.1	44.4	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.8	1.6	0.4	0.3	1.5	3.3
Justin Watts	8	6.8	1.1	2.0	56.3	0.4	0.5	75.0	0.3	0.6	40.0	0.4	0.4	0.8	1.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.9	2.9
David Wear	8	9.4	0.8	2.1	35.3	0.1	0.3	50.0	0.1	0.5	25.0	0.1	1.0	1.1	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.4	1.8
Leslie McDonald	6	6.7	0.7	2.3	28.6	0.2	1.0	16.7	0.2	1.0	16.7	0.0	1.3	1.3	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.5	1.7
Thomas Thornton	3	1.7	0.3	0.7	50.0	0.3	0.7	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
James Gallagher	3	1.7	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0
Terrence Petree	3	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0
Marc Campbell	3	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0

Position Analysis: Point guard

The starting point guard for the Tar Heels is Larry Drew II, son of a former NBA player. Drew assumes the starting point guard spot from the now-graduated Ty Lawson. Drew is a solid point guard and is doing a good job of learning the spot this year. He had one year behind Lawson and is now familiar with Roy Williams style.

The strength of Drew, though not so much this year up until the last game, is his 3-point shooting. He is shooting a fine percentage, but has been a relatively reluctant shooter so far this year, preferring to get the ball to teammates in scoring position, which is the job of a point guard. His assist/turnover ratio is 2-1, which is the gold standard for point guard play.

The knock on Drew has always been his footspeed and athleticism. Unlike Lawson or Wall, Drew is not a blur getting up and down the court. Drew is a competent but not flashy ballhandler, and he isn't going to blow by people like Lawson before him, or Wall does now. But what Drew does have is NCAA championship experience, and a year under his belt. That is worth a lot.

For Kentucky, the point guard is John Wall. We all know what John Wall is capable of, that is, at least to the level he has currently played. Wall and Drew could not be less similar -- Wall is an athletic freak and a slasher, as well as a flashy ballhandler and passer, but an average 3-point shooter. Drew will need help with Wall, as Wall is not only quicker, faster and a better athlete, but he is also four inches taller.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Shooting guard

Marcus Ginyard is the starter at shooting guard for the Tar Heels. Ginyard is a strong, athletic player with good size at 6'5". Ginyard was injured back in 2008, and was granted a medical redshirt.

Ginyard brings senior leadership to the Tar Heels backcourt, and does the little things that help his team win. He is not a big scorer, averaging 11 points/game, but he is a good rebounder and fine passer. He is athletic but not extraordinarily so, and has a good understanding of the North Carolina system. Ginyard is a polished defender, leading the team in steals.

Eric Bledsoe will be the starter at the off guard for Kentucky, and even though he is significantly more athletic and just as strong as Ginyard, he is far less experienced. Blesdsoe is much quicker off the dribble than most any player of his quality that North Carolina has faced so far this year, so Ginyard will have to deal with a quickness disadvantage.

But Ginyard has the advantage in virtually every other area, especially in experience.

Advantage: North Carolina

Position Analysis: Small Forward

Will Graves is the Tar Heel's starter at small forward. Graves is the least touted of all the North Carolina starters, grading out as only #105 in Rivals' class of 2006. Graves is a hard worker, good team player and has loads of experience coming off the bench during North Carolina's most recent run of success. He is not a particularly good three-point shooter, although he can make it. He is a decent but not outstanding rebounder. What he does do particularly well is defend.

Graves is an experienced player who adds experience to the team, as well as bulk and strength inside.

Graves will be going up against Darius Miller. Miller has the advantage of height, quickness and athleticism over Graves, but Graves is much heavier and stronger than Miller, which could provide UNC some opportunities with Graves posting Miller up. If Miller decides to assert himself (a big "if"), he could give Graves great difficulty due to his superior skills, speed, and athleticism.

Advantage: Draw

Position analysis: Power Forward

Ed Davis is the power forward for North Carolina, and the young sophomore is extremely talented. Davis is strong in the low post and quick off the floor. He doesn't have great range, but he is a good finisher and has a strong lower body. Davis runs the floor very well and will dunk on you if you are slow getting back. He is a solid defensive player with long arms and good footwork.

Davis is not strong in the upper body, though, and has narrow shoulders, which makes it harder for him against more physical power forwards. Davis is a good shot blocker with long arms and good timing.

I am going to assume that Patrick Patterson will be guarding Davis, because I think he is just too quick for DeMarcus Cousins. Offensively, Patterson is a much more versatile and powerful player than Davis. Davis is highly skilled, but Patterson is capable of shooting with range and will probably try to take Davis away from the basket.

Defensively, Patterson is stronger than Davis in every respect. He should be able to keep him far enough off the low block to force him into spin moves or short, challenged jumpers. Pattrerson runs the floor just as well as Davis, so there is really no part of the game in which Davis is superior to Patrick Patterson.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Center

Deon Thompson will play the post for the Tar Heels, and Thompson is a senior with all kinds of great skills. Thompson can face up from 15 feet, bury you on the block, rebound, block shots, you name it. He is the Tar Heels' leading scorer and overall best player.

The knock against Thompson has been that he sometimes doesn't work that hard, but this year he seems to have solidified his work ethic. Thompson is big, strong, reasonably quick and has great hands -- he will catch everything thrown in his direction.

DeMarcus Cousins will likely get the assignment on Thomson. Offensively, Cousins and Thompson are very similar players, with the main difference being that Thompson is a better face-up player. Cousins is longer and even heavier than Thompson, so a determined effort by Cousins will force Thompson farther away from the basket than he has been most of this year. Cousins also has the unusual habit of keeping his feet on the head fake, and using his very long arms to bother shots. That will serve him very well against Thompson if he continues to do that.

Offensively, Cousins is capable of pushing Thompson around in the post, and his greater length and soft hands make him a big challenge for Thompson defensively. What works against Cousins are two things -- Thompson is a senior, and has all the experience in the world. Cousins is an excitable freshman, prone to fouls, and a poor foul shooter. Overall, the balance of the equities goes to Thompson.

Advantage: North Carolina

Bench Analysis

The Tar Heels are huge on the bench, having four bench players at 6'10" or taller. UK is deep along the front line as well, but unlike the Heels, Kentucky has better depth at the guard position. It would be much better if DeAndre Liggins were available, but we won't know about that until game time.

Kentucky has been the much higher scoring team so far, but North Carolina gets a greater percentage of points from their bench. That is something the Wildcats will have to keep an eye on.

Carolina's depth is actually better than UK's at critical positions. They could, for example, execute a "Hack-a-Shaq" game against Cousins if Cousins is able to dominate in the post, and force him to the line. They could literally expend 24 fouls guarding Cousins and still field a great team.

Advantage: North Carolina

Overall analysis

This game is going to be a track meet, so it is important for both coaches to manage their players carefully. Loafing up and down the floor will likely produce dunks on the other end, and I expect to see a ton of dunks in this game.

These two teams are both extremely big and long, and you can expect a lot of shots blocked by both sides. If the officials call this game close, it will be to the advantage of the Tar Heels in a big way. If they don't, that advantage is minimized.

The higher the pace, the more advantage to Kentucky. That's because UNC has so many big men, and relatively few guards and swing players.

UK must strongly guard the three against UNC, because they can shoot it. They don't shoot it that much because they would rather get layups and dunks, just like UK, but UNC is the more dangerous team from the perimeter. If UK doesn't put on some strong perimeter defense, the Heels can burn the 'Cats there.

I think this game will ultimately come down to which coach manages his player's minutes better. Both are going to be tired at the end, and I would be surprised if the winning margin is more than ten points. Kentucky has the home court advantage, which will be big, but not huge, in this game.

Projected score: Kentucky 93, North Carolina 88.

How Impressed Should UNC and Kentucky Be?

T.H. — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 12:58:04 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

22 days ago: Kentucky's DeMarcus Cousins, left, celebrates with teammate John Wall during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against North Carolina-Asheville in Louisville, Ky., Monday, Nov. 30, 2009. Cousins led all scorers with 24 points and Wall handed out 14 assists in Kentucky's 94-57 win. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

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Yeah, I've seen them. I'm not impressed.

That, of course, was DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky's 6'11" freshman forward talking about the Heels after a drubbing of UNC-Asheville early in the week. And stupidity about taunting your opponent aside, you can't really fault his logic. Carolina, at that point, hadn't really impressed me much either with their best win (Ohio State) marred by letting the Buckeyes back in in the second half and their one loss (Syracuse) including as it did a horrific 22-1 run against. I'm happier with the Heels now, after the win over Michigan State, but I still have my reservations. They're a young team, brilliant in stretches, but who have yet to put together the forty minutes of ball I'd like to see.

Of course, the same thing can be said about Kentucky. The Wildcats are 7-0, but against a schedule so soft it will put you to sleep. It includes such powerhouses as Morehead State, Sam Houston State, Cleveland State, and Please Find Us Another Patsy to Get Us to 2000 Wins State. The toughest foe on the slate was Stanford, currently at fearsome 4-3, and the Wildcats had to go through overtime to get that win.

The other thing about Kentucky is that they are, shockingly, younger than the Heels. Three of their top six players by minutes-played being freshmen, and another two sophomores. UNC, for all the freshmen they put out on the floor, still start two seniors, two sophomores, and a junior. If you're going to take on a talented team (and they are packed with raw talent) like the Wildcats, the best time to do so is early in the season when they haven't faced much adversity.

Kentucky is playing the same style of ball all the cool kids are this season. Or at least the style UNC and Michigan State share, with a rapid tempo and the incredible number of turnovers that accompany it. Kentucky has more height than the Spartans, on par with the Heels, and both teams naturally eschew the three-pointer most of the time. Here's way another strong outside shooting night from Larry Drew and Marcus Ginyard can pay off, as Kentucky is horrible at defending the three.

The rest of the game will be decided on the interior matchups, however. Cousins vs. Ed Davis and Patrick Patterson on Deon Thompson will be the way things start presumably, but UNC has big men galore to stream off the bench, and as long as the starters can maintain their cool and avoid foul trouble, things should go well. Whoever wins the battles of rebounds and blocked shots should be able to control the game; everything else, from pregame talk to last year's recruiting grudges won't matter a bit after the ball is tipped. I think if the right Carolina team shows up, they can win this one handily. I'm just never sure which team leaves the locker room on any given evening.

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tarheels

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:46:35 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

When last we met.

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Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS

THE DEAN E. SMITH CENTER, CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA

9:00 P.M. (ET), TUESDAY

TV: ESPN (Dickie V, sadly)

Tarheel bullets:

You may recall that North Carolina had a pretty good squad last season: 34-4 overall, 13-3 in the ACC, National Champions.
Oh, and they posted two wins against the Spartans of Michigan State University by a combined margin of 52 points.
Four of five starters departed for the NBA.
6-1 thus far in the new season. Beat Ohio State by 4 points; lost to Syracuse by 16 (both games in New York).
Plenty of talent/depth remains. 10 players averaging at least 9 minutes per game.

Starter-plus-sixth-man (Zeller) statistical capsule (more stats here):

Pos	Player	Height	Year	Min/G	Pts/G	2pt%	3pt%	FT%	Reb/G	Ast/G
G	Larry Drew II	6'2"	SO	25.3	7.7	.526	.471	.625	2.3	6.7
G/F	Marcus Ginyard	6'5"	RS SR	30.3	11.4	.595	.474	.692	3.7	4.1
F/G	Will Graves	6'6"	RS JR	18.7	7.3	.440	.269	.800	3.7	0.7
F	Deon Thompson	6'9"	SR	26.9	17.7	.561	--	.800	8.9	1.4
F	Ed Davis	6'10"	SO	24.9	12.7	.680	--	.618	9.9	1.4
F	Tyler Zeller	7'0"	SO	16.0	10.1	.614	--	.773	3.9	0.4

TMadison has already provided us with a thorough rundown of the early four-factors profile for the new-edition Tarheels. I won't repeat everything he's already done.

The offensive strength of the team rests with the final three numbers in the "2pt%" column of the table above. Thompson, Davis, and Zeller are all scoring very efficiently near the basket. That's going to pose a major problem for MSU. In both our games against quality opponents to date (Gonzaga/Florida), the opponent's big men scored very efficiently--much more so than the opposing guards. Draymond Green and Delvon Roe, for all their strengths, don't have the height to match-up with taller players who can turn and score.

The trick will be to deny the Tarheel big men good position, limit them to one shot when they do get the ball in the post, and hope the UNC guards don't get hot. In Carolina's loss to Syacuse, Graves and Drew combined to make just 2 of 14 FG attempts against the Syracuse zone. (It also helped that the Orangemen posted an eFG% of 61.0%.) Might we finally see that zone defense Tom Izzo keeps claiming he's got the team practicing--at least to throw a different look at the Tarheels for a few possessions? More broadly, it'll be interesting to see whether Izzo has his guards hedge off perimeter shooters more than usual to try to deny clean entry passes into the post or pressure the UNC guards to try to take advantage of the turnover issues the Tarheels have displayed to date.

Generally, it's going to be on Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Chris Allen to take advantage of their experience and scoring abilities against the relatlively-less imposing UNC guards. Marcus Ginyard--the man who forced Evan Turner to turn the ball over 10 times--will have something to say about that, though.

UNC is a "long" team, as the NBA draft experts would say. Five of their top six players are 6'5" or taller. The team is averaing 5.9 blocked shots per game, led by Ed Davis' 2.6 blocks/game. Thankfully, MSU has shown a propensity for avoiding getting its shots blocked this season, ranking 7th in the nation in offensive block%. They'll need to create good looks near the basket, but probably not right at the rim, and knock down whatever open 3-point looks they get agains the UNC guards (opposing 3pt% = 37.3%).

This game feels more must-winnish than nonconference games (even those against top-ten opponents) typically do. Some of that is the revenge factor for last year's two blowout losses--the second on the game's biggest stage. But it's also a function of the ugly loss to Florida. Win this game and that loss becomes a narrow loss to a young, fairly-talented team that will likely be an NCAA Tournament team in three months. Lose this game and we fall clearly outside the top 10, having struggled or lost against all three quality opponents to date, and a #1 or #2 seed for the NCAA Tournament becomes a pretty steep uphill climb.

If this game is to be won, I expect it'll be done so in a high-scoring affair, with both teams taking advantage of the other's defensive weaknesses. Given that MSU's lineup is now pretty close to 100%--with Raymar Morgan (who, as always, is the X-factor offensively) coming off three straight appearnaces of 19+ minutes--it's now or not-until-the-22nd-vs.-Texas to show what this team can do when all the parts are clicking on offense. I don't think the Lucas-plus-Green-plus-one-or-two-other-guys-playing-efficiently offensive attack works in this one. [/excessively-hyphenated sentences]

P.S. Talor Battle and Co. win on the road to give the Big Ten a 1-0 lead. Reverse-jinx Sagarin-odds post working perfectly. [Laughs maniacally.]

Around the ACC: 11.20.09

MRickman84 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:54:13 -0000

Good morning. Yesterday was sure a shaky day for the ACC. UNC pulled it out after collapsing again in the second half--which they are quickly making a habit of. GT lost a tough one to Dayton (and the CAA is looking rather good so far, with UNC-W knocking off Penn State and William & Mary beating Richmond, not to mention Hofstra putting up a good fight against UCONN the other day.) The conference as a whole is looking pretty strong, especially compared to the struggles of the Pac-10 and the SEC (which is just abismal this year).

UNC 77, Ohio State 73:
UNC dominated early on, with help from Ohio State's horrendous shooting, but a hot streak from the Buckeyes brought them back in the game. UNC obviously has a lot inside, with Deon Thompson leading the way (15 points, 12 rebounds). The rest of the bigs--John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis and the Ware twins--combined for 19 points.

This Tar Heel team is tough to figure out. They definitely do not have the poise that previous UNC teams have had, and it is not completely clear who the leader is going to be--Marcus Ginyard (13 points, 3 steals) stepped up after being chewed out by Roy Williams last night and Will Graves and Thompson have the potential to, but there is not guaranteed go-to guy. Evan Turner led the Buckeyes in the loss with 23 points and 10 rebounds, but had a glaring 10 turnovers.

Dayton 63, Georgia Tech 59
This one was never a guaranteed win for Georgia Tech, and actually, I considered them the underdog coming in. GT may have more individual talent, but Dayton is a better basketball team. I don't doubt that the Yellow Jackets will improve this year, but they are going to go through a 2009 Wake Forestesque stretch of games (not to mention they have Paul Hewitt as their coach). Chris Johnson lall scorers with 19 points (7-13 shooting, 4-8 from 3PT). Freshman sensation Derrick Favors had a good game, with 10 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists. Gani Lawal had 9 and 8, but EIGHT turnovers. The Ramblin' Wreck were doomed by committing 26 turnovers and shooting 55% from the FT line.

Miami 74, Tulane 54
The Hurricanes moved to 3-0 on the year with a 20 point victory over the Green Wave. Dwayne Collins has a monster game, with 23 points, 14 rebounds and 3 assists on 8-8 shooting. Durand Scott also looked impressive, finishing with 10 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. The 'Canes had a 19-4 run in the second half and will take on UNC-W today at 3 P.M.

Virginia 79, Rider 46
Virginia smoked Rider. Rider had beaten Mississippi State and Lehigh already, so I figured Virginia might have a little trouble pulling away, but good defense (Rider shot 33%) and balanced scoring really helped the Cavaliers. Mike Scott paced the Cavs with 17 and 9 on 8-9 shooting. Sylven Landesberg added 10, Sammy Zeglinski and Jeff Jones had 10, and Calvin Baker and Mustapha Farrakhan had 8. Virginia shot 52% and 44% from beyond the arc.

Tonight's Lines

SFBE.MP — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:42:30 -0000

Are we in midseason form already? Not even close. Sloppy play and teams "finding themselves" has been the staple of the first week in college basketball. Well consider all of those games rubbish compared to the slate of games tonight. It's like all week you ate Taco Bell (while always delicious) and Mickey D's and tonight you'll be served steak and potatoes. We're not saying that the games tonight and this afternoon won't be littered with turnovers but at least the talent pool of all 10 players on the court should be at the highest level of the season thus far.

True degenerate breakfast bonus game:

#21 Dayton (+1.5) vs. #19 Georgia Tech, 11:30 am Puerto Rico Tip Off Classic

One time relevant mid-majors still trying to compete:

George Mason vs. #6 Villanova (-14.5), 2 pm ESPNU. Villanova is flat out good. They can beat you inside or outside, up tempo or in the half court set.
South Florida vs. Davidson (-1), 7 pm Charleston Classic. Davidson sans Curry means back to reality. The fact that they are even favored, albeit by a slim margin, means they are still riding the coat tails of their former star.

2k Sports Coaches vs. Cancer Classic @ Madison Square Garden:

#24 Syracuse vs. #12 California (Pick 'em) 7pm ESPN2. Madison Square Garden is Syracuse's home away from home. They should have named the Garden's court after Jimmy B since he rarely plays away from the Dome until march, and if he does, it's in "Lebron's MECCA of basketball."
#4 North Carolina (-2) vs. #15 Ohio State, 9 pm ESPN2. Once again UNC reloads. UNC has put up at least 88 points in all three games this year. Will the Buckeye's even get up enough attempts to match that score? Evan Turner (19ppg, 17 rpg) and David Lighty will have to play out of their minds, but Deon Thompson and Ed Davis should be too much down low.

A Look at Ohio State

T.H. — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 13:10:22 -0000

The above histograms of the player's heights tell you pretty much everything you need to know about tonight's game. One team is very, very tall, and the other is very, very small.

Now normally, the style of play would be easy to predict for such a game. The team of behemoths would try to slow the game down and work a deliberate offense while relying on defense and rebounds to keep the shorter, faster team at bay. But this is UNC, and they're going to be out there running with the best of them, while Ohio State is a member of the cripplingly slow-playing Big Ten conference.

In conference play last season, the Buckeyes managed only 60.8 possessions a game; by comparison, UNC had 74.7. Ohio State will the team taking it ridiculously slow. Which is odd given their style of play, which is heavily perimeter oriented, and defensively geared towards opponents doing the same. (Only two teams had a higher percentage of threes shot attempted against them last season. They'll look to tall wing players Jon Diebler and Jeremie Simmons, and William Buford to do most of the perimeter shooting while leaving Evan Turner to handle most of the penetration. Marcus Ginyard will be the key defensive player, and he'll amost certainly shut down whoever he's manned up on, but the other perimeter defenders will have to step up.

As this season has shown though, it will be UNC's turnovers that will make or break them tonight. OSU isn't prone to take the ball away particularly often, but there's is a perimeter defense built on denying the ball inside. Sloppy entry passes and poor ball handling will lead to turnovers here, and unlike the Heels' first three games, this team is good enough to punish them when they make mistakes. Keeping Ohio State out of their half court defensive set will help, but if they don't get the ball inside to those five players 6' 10" or higher, it's going to be a long, long evening for Carolina.

As to who wins? It's difficult to say. The UNC team that has taken the floor so far this season has an unnerving habit of playing down to their opponent's level at times, and that has to stop. Hopefully Tuesday and Wednesday's practices refocused the Heels, otherwise it won't be a particularly enjoyable trip to the Big Apple.

Coaches vs Cancer SBNation Roundtable

Avinash — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:03:48 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Mike Montgomery takes the Golden Bears on the road. How well will Cal perform under the Madison Square Garden lights?

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We take a quick break from our Furd hatred (although there's plenty of places to discuss it!) to get ourselves focused on the tipoff of a big big weekend in Cal hoops. Coaches v. Cancer and the big women's hoops showdown vs Baylor! All this plus the Big Game! What more could you ask for this pre-Thanksgiving weekend?

To kick off this great weekend, we all decided to take CGB into new territory and try and figure out all our potential opponents for this tournament at once. Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician (Syracuse), Carolina March (North Carolina), and We Will Always Have Tempe (Ohio State) have all set down for an unprecedented four way hoops roundtable!

What we did was take two questions to each group and answered two from each, ending up with four six question interviews that give you a little taste of each team. So if you want to find out more about each team, plus see our answers to everyone else's questions, you'll have to check out each site.

You can view our interviews with all three: Click here for Nunes Magician, here for Carolina March, here for WWAHT! We start off with the team we face today, the Orangemen.

Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magican (Syracuse)

1) How has Syracuse handled the loss of superstar player Jonny Flynn to the NBA?

By replacing him as best we can. It's clear that freshman Brandon Triche is no Jonny Flynn, at least not yet. But he does ensure that the drop-off won't be as severe as it could have been. Coupled with junior Scoop Jardine, the duo will take turns running the SU offense. If Jonny Flynn was Peyton Manning, Triche/Jardine are going to be our Trent Dilfer in 2001. We're not going to ask them to win the game for us, we just want them not to lose it.

2) Briefly describe your 2-3 zone defense. How good is it this year? How effective can it be against a team like Cal, who has a number of excellent perimeter shooters?

Well first here's why the 2-3 zone is so important for us. The loss to LeMoyne? We played man-to-man the entire time, thanks to Boeheim feeling the need to drill it into the heads of the players how lacking their defensive skills were. Since then the Orange have proven themselves pretty adept on zone defense against lesser opponents, causing 60 turnovers in two games so far. Boeheim himself went on record after the most recent win to say this is now the best he's seen the SU defense in a long time.

Of course, if there's any death-knell for the 2-3 zone, it's a hot hand from three-point range. If someone's shooting lights-out, that almost always spells doom for the Orange (and most opponents). If that's the case against Cal, the Orange are going to have to try and maintain control of the game tempo, which has been fast. Unlike recent teams this SU squad likes to run on offense and with athletes like Wes Johnson and Kris Joseph, they'll want turn it into a track meet if they can. Not to mention a certain bigtime shooter of their own, Andy Rautins.

We'll learn a lot about the Orange against Cal. Probably 100 times more than we did in the LeMoyne game or the two previous games.

We Will Always Have Tempe (Ohio State)

Tell us about your point guard situation. Is the offense running smoothly? One of the best ways to slow Cal's offense is to disrupt PG Randle at the point of attack, but it requires an extremely quick defender to stay in front of him; you guys got anyone like that?

Thad Matta has finally decided that the only way Ohio State will be a consistent offensive basketball team is to put the ball in the hands of its best player as often as possible. Thus, Evan Turner is getting a lot of looks at the one, with PJ Hill and Jeremie Simmons supplementing his efforts. The offense has looked good in the early going, and surprisingly so behind the arc. But this is against James Madison and Alcorn State, so it's tough to make an informed assessment just yet. Right now, Turner is very good at improvising, driving the lane, and rebounding, but his sharing skills still seem to need work.

I imagine Ohio State will try to keep a man on Randle at all times, but Thad Matta can be awfully fond of the zone against good perimeter teams. I'm not all that familiar with Cal's offense, but if Matta elects to go man-to-man, I think Ohio State will alternate between putting David Lighty - our best defensive player - and Turner - by far our most athletic - on Randle. Should be a fun match-up to watch either way.

Ohio State has had a lot of transition over the past few years, watching player after player after player go to the NBA. While they did make the NCAA Finals the other year, they also were a NIT team recently and were knocked out by Sienna last year. Do you believe that it might be more prudent to recruit slightly worse players that would stay for more than 1 year than the truly elite players that have been coming through?

This is something I'm quite torn over. I like seeing Matta recruit the dickens out of the Midwest, but I don't like seeing Ohio State becoming a Big Men factory. Our last two biggest recruits - Kosta Koufos, then BJ Mullens - were massive, massive disappointments at Ohio State, and have made it that much harder to understand Matta's recruiting strategy. Still, when those recruits come in and actually do perform, they have achieved some pretty ridiculous highs; Ohio State was just a few bad breaks away from ruining Florida's second championship run, and if they had managed to beat the Gators, few would be questioning Matta's recruiting strategy. But, of course, those are all ifs, and people care more about what actually happened than what came close to happening. Personally, I like what Matta's doing, but if he doesn't start producing some better tournament teams, a shift in the dynamics of his recruiting strategy may be necessary.

Carolina March (North Carolina)

1) The Tar Heels lost a lot of talent off a national championship squad. What's left? Even with the incoming freshmen, is there enough to justify a Top 5 preseason ranking?

What's left? More than you think. None of the freshmen have yet to crack the starting lineup, and there's a reason for that. Marcus Ginyard was the defensive heart of the team through the Hansbrough years, only still around because due to an injury last season. Ed Davis and Deon Thompson were formidable post presences in their own right on last year's team, and Davis especially should be phenomenal this year. Larry Drew's getting a lot a grief for not being Ty Lawson, but even Lawson wasn't Lawson at the start of his sophomore season; he'll improve and impress. And then there's Tyler Zeller and five freshmen; UNC won't hurt for wins this season.

That being said, none of this justifies a preseason Top 5. The Heels are at present overrated, but they're not alone in that regard. Everyone remembers the two or three true freshmen who have truly elevated their teams over the last few years, and have generalized that to all highly-rated freshman. Duke and Kentucky, to name two teams that quickly come to mind, are equally overrated. The team with the experience of years playing together have an advantage that shouldn't be taken lightly.

2) There've been a lot of hated Dukies you've had to deal with over the years. Who's the one you want to punch in the face the most?

Ah, the endless debate, always being hashed out in coffee shops and bars in Chapel Hill. There's no real wrong answer here, but you have to first recognize that J. J. Redick took being punchable to new heights at Duke. First, by parlaying two skills (excellent free throw shooting and a quick-release three-pointer that worked well with Duke's perimeter screens) into enough glowing media profiles you'd think he was Jesus in hightops. Then he'd compound it by being an ass on the court, only to garner more glowing profiles for how brave he was to suffer the cruel insults of opposing fans. Heavens forfend a basketball fan outside of Durham should deign to say something mean about our poor little tortured poet.

That being said, his would not be the face I'd punch. (And only because I wouldn't want to read the articles on how heroic he was to suffer such a blow) No, I'd have to go with with the ur-annoying Duke guard [1], Steve Wojcjechowski. What he lacked in skill, he made up for with extreme annoyance, constantly slapping the court [2], and otherwise being the apple of Vitale's eye. But his biggest sin is post-graduation, when he moved up the bench to be an assistant coach. There is an unspoken compact between Duke players and Carolina fans - after four or five years, they go away. Because I still have to suffer Wojcjechowski on my TV is grounds for face-punching.

[1] It can be argued that Bobby Hurley was the ur-annoying Duke guard, but Wojcjechowski has one attribute Hurley lacks, mainly a thorough failure on the national stage during his time in Durham.

[2] One of the great moments in the UNC-Duke rivalry that never makes the highlight clips was when UNC point guard Ed Cota brought the ball up the court against Wojcjechowski. The defender leaned down and slapped the floor, only to have pick that moment to drive past him like he was, well, bending over a slapping the floor in the middle of a basketball game. Who does that?

Poll

Cal will ______________ game(s) in the Coaches v. Cancer Tournament.

Win both

33 votes

Win against Syracuse, lose the second

44 votes

Lose against Syracuse, win the second

18 votes

Lose both

13 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed