SB Nation - Bobby Frasor

UNC 83, Villanova 69

T.H. — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 03:54:47 -0000

The entire game, it seemed like there were two Carolina teams flickering in and out of focus, like two TV channels overlapping on the same band. There was the team from the previous tournament games, where Ty Lawson sliced through defenders at will, and Wayne Ellington dropped threes at will, going 5 for 7 behind the arc on his way 20 points. And then there was the other Carolina team, that popped their heads up earlier in the season. The one frustrated by Villanova's defense descending on the big men in the paint. The team that gave up an obscene number of offensive rebounds to a smaller team (19, and only that low because the Heels finally got it under control late), that went through scoring droughts and could never put an opponent away. I'd hoped to never see that team again this year.

What I never saw, however, was the teams of years past, that came into a Final Four game against Kansas half-asleep and never recovered, or panicked in the waning minutes of a game against Georgetown. The upperclassmen leadership on this team is phenomenal; Wayne Elington and Bobby Frasor (7 rebounds, 5 offensive in 19 minutes) were all over the court scooping up loose balls knocked free from freshmen hands by the Wildcat defense. Ty Lawson ran the floor like he was oblivious to the influx of hands slapping at the ball in two or threes; he only had four turnovers. As bad as the second half got at times - UNC shot 9 for 29, Nova 10 for 38 - the Wildcats were never able to cut the lead closer than five, a margin quickly doubled by Danny Green and Ty Lawson. This team is working together like a well-oiled machine, even when the shots don't fall. There's no doubt, no fear, and no chance of letting Michigan State upset them. Sportswriters will kvetch about the lack of surprise, the absence of drama, the sheer inevitability of it all; let them. This is a beautiful thing to watch finally come together, and I plan to enjoy it.

(They could make a few more free throws, though.)

Previewing the Elite Eight Showdown: #1 UNC vs. #2 Oklahoma

dishingoutdimes — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 20:28:42 -0000

#1 North Carolina (31-4) vs. #2 Oklahoma (30-5)
South Regional Final
FedEx Forum - Memphis, Tennessee
Tip: 4:05PM Central Time, broadcast on CBS

Unflappable [uhn-flap-uh-buhl] (adj.) - not easily upset or confused, especially in a crisis.

Despite all the chaos surrounding the Oklahoma Sooners in their final weeks of the season, they have done nothing but impress in the NCAA Tournament so far. They have built solid leads in all of the games so far, and won each by double digit margins. More importantly, they appear to be clicking at the right time. Team chemistry seems stronger than ever and the guys seem to have a will to win. Their passes are crisper, their rebounding stronger, and their celebrations more emotional. Nobody who watched the last two weeks of the season would have predicted that the Sooners would navigate the tournament field this easily into the Elite Eight. And that is why they are unflappable - cool customers just like their coach, Jeff Capel.

Unfortunately though, Jeff Capel will be leading the Sooners up against his former rival, the North Carolina Tar Heels, who have performed similiarly in the NCAA tournament so far. In fact, most would argue that they have been more dominant. If you listen to most of the mainstream media talking heads, and even the fans, Oklahoma doesn't stand a chance.

The question is which team that's been steamrolling competition in the tournament, and doesn't get flustered under pressure, will punch their ticket to Detroit? An in-depth numbers breakdown will follow after the jump (click the link below).

The Teams

This section will offer a brief look at how the teams compare in various statistical categories and rankings. I'll provide the national ranking for each team for each category.

Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): North Carolina (1st), Oklahoma (4th)
Defensive Efficiency (KenPom): North Carolina (22nd), Oklahoma (38th)
Adjusted Scoring Margin: North Carolina (1st), Oklahoma (11th)
Points Per Game: North Carolina (90.5, 2nd), Oklahoma (79.2, 11th)
Possessions Per Game (Pace): North Carolina (76.1, 7th), Oklahoma (69.3, 96th)
Points Per Possession: North Carolina (1.19, 1st), Oklahoma (1.14, 6th)
Effective FG%: Oklahoma (55.5, 7th), North Carolina (53.4, 34th)

Both teams are offensive powerhouses. It's really pretty amazing when you consider the above statistics. These are both some of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. They are efficient for different reasons. Oklahoma is efficient on offense when they play the inside-outside game and drive to the rim. That creates more opportunities for them. Also, the Sooners are obviously more efficient when they get the ball to Blake Griffin. North Carolina is efficient when they can run the fastbreak. The Sooners are at their best when they run their offense through Blake Griffin just like North Carolina is at their best when they run their offense through Ty Lawson. He is ranked by KenPom.com as the most efficient offensive player in the country.

You can see the difference in styles in the possessions per game statistic which is a good proxy for the pace the team usually plays at. North Carolina typically plays the 7th fastest game in the country, while OU plays more of an average tempo - a mix between a few fast breaks, but mostly half court.

The bad news for both teams is that only one team has won the title in the past 5 years ranked outside of the top 5 in defensive efficiency. That team (Florida in 2007) was ranked just 12th, and was also the most efficient offensive team that particular year. Perhaps the old mantra "defense wins championships" is true. If it is, then Connecticut (3) and Louisville (2) have reason to be extremely hopeful, and Michigan State (10) and Missouri (11) should be happy with their chances too. Amazingly, all those "defensive" teams are on the same side of the bracket. Both UNC and OU are ranked outside the top 20. The winner of this game could be decided by which defense decides to step up.

Meet The Tar Heels

Starting Five

Tyler Hansbrough (F, 6'9" 250 Senior) - 21.3ppg, 8.1rpg, 85.6% FT
Deon Thompson (F, 6'8" 240 Junior) - 10.7ppg, 5.9rpg, 64.2% FT
Danny Green (G/F, 6'6" 210 Senior) - 13.2ppg, 4.8rpg, 2.8apg, 84.2% FT, 41.3% 3P
Wayne Ellington (G, 6'4" 200 Junior) - 15.8ppg, 4.9rpg, 2.7apg, 40.2% 3P
Ty Lawson (G, 5'11" 195 Junior) - 16.2ppg, 6.6apg, 3.47 A/TO ratio, 48.5% 3P, 81.4% FT

Rotation Subs

Ed Davis (F, 6'10" 220 Freshman) - 6.7ppg, 6.7rpg, 59.6% FT
Bobby Frasor (G, 6'3" 210 Senior) - 2.8ppg, 1.8rpg, 1.5apg, 46.2% FT

You Might Still See

Will Graves (F, 6'6" 245 Sophomore) - 4.0ppg, 2.6rpg, 88.9% FT
Tyler Zeller (F/C, 7'0" 220 Freshman) - 3.7ppg, 2.3rpg
Larry Drew (G, 6'1" 180 Freshman) - 2.1apg, 41.2% FT

Not surprisingly for a team that is demolishing most people, UNC has a lot of experience. They start 2 seniors and 3 juniors. Two of the juniors (Ellington and Lawson) could probably go to the NBA and get drafted. Not only that, but all of these guys have a significant amount of NCAA tournament experience with some deep runs into March.

It all starts with Ty Lawson. The shifty, speedy 5'11" guard can score and create. Jeff Capel would call him a "playmaker". He is the second leading scorer on the team and dishes out about 7 assists per game. The offense runs through him. He'll look to set up his teammates first but he'll shoot the ball too. Don't leave him open beyond the arc because he basically makes about 1 out of every 2 shots he takes from 3-point land. According to KenPom.com he is the most efficient offensive player in the nation and has the 10th best true shooting percentage nationally (accounting for free throws and 3 pointers). Playing good on ball defense with Lawson will be very key. Whoever draws Lawson needs to bring their A-game.

Ty Lawson does it all for the Tar Heels

Their second offensive force is Tyler Hansbrough, the reigning national player of the year (Naismith winner). He is the 20th most efficient offensive player in the country, probably because he is 3rd best nationally at drawing fouls and getting to the line. He draws about 8 fouls per game and once he gets to the line, he nails free throws at a 85.6% clip. This will obviously be Blake Griffin's defensive assignment if they play some flavor of man defense. I honestly think that this matchup of two of the greatest players in college basketball today will be allowed to happen without two many whistles. Both players are very physical and I think the refs are going to let them play unless a foul is really obvious. Blake has stepped it up in the tournament and neutralizing Hansbrough will be key, as you can't let Lawson AND Hansbrough hit their groove.

Beyond that, Deon Thompson is another big post presence (kind of reminds me of Syracuse's starting bigs). Wayne Ellington and Danny Green are two versatile wing players who are long and athletic enough to play defense, alter shots, and even get a block or two. They both can nail the three and shoot at a high percentage. Warren and Crocker will probably draw these two respectively. One will probably need to break even and another will probably need to win their matchup in order for OU to have a chance. The Sooners will have to worry enough about Lawson and Hansbrough - they can't afford to have Green or Ellington go off. I compare it to our game against Syracuse. They knew Warren and Blake were dangerous, but they couldn't afford to have a guy like Crocker play great. I'd say that neutralizing Ellington and Green is a big key for us.

North Carolina, like Oklahoma and Syracuse for that matter, does not have an exceptionally deep rotation. They only get about 28% bench minutes per game, which is only 235th in the country. Ed Davis and Bobby Frasor are the only two guys that really are a significant part of the rotation off the bench. Bobby Frasor does not take many shots and you can tell why - he shoots only 44.4% from inside the arc and only about 25% from outside the arc. He averages about 3 shots per game and about 2 out of every 3 shots is a 3-pointer, which is surprising given he only makes about 1 out of every 4 threes. Ed Davis is more dangerous as a bench big. He has the size and talent to outmuscle Ryan Wright on the low block, the size to shoot and rebound over Juan Pattillo. We might see with Jeff Capel bring Orlando Allen off the bench to go at Davis. Unfortunately, when Blake gets his rest, I think that Davis could get some productive minutes down low.

Keys To The Game

Keep up the intensity. The x-factor. The pizazz. The mojo. The swagger. Whatever it is, OU has got it back. They are playing loose and comfortable. They haven't seemed to let anything get under their skin this tournament. They need to maintain that, even though they are playing against arguably the most talented team in the nation.
Make Them Play At OU's Tempo. North Carolina thrives when it can play a fast tempo. They play well running up and down the floor and other teams make mistakes. Settling back into half-court sets and only taking the transition game when it presents itself will be key.
Austin Johnson. He has to bring it on both sides of the court. He will be charged with shutting down Ty Lawson and keeping OU at a good tempo and clicking on offense.
Crocker, Taylor Griffin, or Willie. One of these three guys needs to score to compliment Blake Griffin. Crocker's game against Syracuse shows you how scary our offense is when we have a legit second scoring option. It makes the inside-outside game (basically our offense in a nutshell) much more effective.
No Deficit Early. It seems like so far in the tournament, the vast majority of teams that have been close (within 5) or leading through the 10:00 mark of the first half have won. I'm not saying a comeback in a basketball game isn't impossible, but against UNC it would be much tougher. More importantly, winning or hanging close through the first quarter of the game will give our guys quite a bit of confidence.
Avoid Falling Asleep In the 2nd Half. We always have a 5:00 to 10:00 period in the 2nd half where we seem to be just going through the motions. It happened against Syracuse for about 5 or 6 minutes. We need 40 minutes of good basketball against UNC.

Ty Lawson's Toe

T.H. — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 00:02:55 -0000

The word going around is that Ty Lawson is doubtful for the ACC Tournament, as his injured toe is getting worse instead of better. Although only a jam, it's complicated y a previously healed break that went unnoticed, and the whole thing is becoming a bit of a mess. So no ACC Player of the Year for the ACC Tournament.

Good.

It's by no means good that he's injured, but given the choice between risking further damage in Atlanta or resting for the NCAA's, it's rather obvious that the correct option is the latter. I say this knowing that it practically eliminates any chance UNC has of cutting down the nets in Atlanta. I'd much rather have this team go the way of the 1993 and 2005 teams, both who lost to Georgia Tech before winning their next six in March. And I'm a guy who puts a premium on winning the ACC Tournament, and despises the strategic loss philosophy of conference tournament play. Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew could use the high-pressure experience, and the team could use a little more adversity before the NCAAs start. As long as Lawson healthy in a week, this could end up being a good thing.

Come to think of it, the Heels did go 6-1 last year with Thomas and Ginyard at the point. Frasor and Drew could manage the same.

UNC 79, Duke 71

T.H. — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 05:30:04 -0000

What everyone witnessed today was the present UNC team defeat the future Duke team. And as one would expect in such a game, it was surprisingly dull.

This became especially clear in the second half, where Larry Drew and Ed Davis made only fleeting appearances on the court while senior Bobby Frasor was everywhere defensively for the Heels. The Blue Devils, meanwhile, benched Greg Paulus in favor of more playing time for Eliot Williams and turned the game over to the players that, barring an early exit to the NBA, while be on everyone's preseason all-ACC lists: Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler. The end result was a wormanlike Duke team that UNC consistently led but could not put away, due in part to their poor passing and multiple turnovers. Duke on the other hand could never close the gap with their one-and-done offensive possessions and susceptibility to a Danny Green or Wayne Ellington three.

What sunk in for me in this game was that despite watching a team beat their biggest rival and only challenger for the top seed of the ACC tournament, and in fact beating this team for the sixth time in four years, they never really looked all that impressive. There was little fire, few sustained runs, and a lack of excitement that has characterized much of the season. They, in short, didn't look like a team that could win the national championship. It doesn't feel lie the 2005 season, or even last season. It just... is. Maybe it's a misreading on my part, or an overdose of Big East hype, but I don't see much enthusiasm for March. I can't point to many actual deficiencies in the play - the defense gives up a few too many points, I suppose - but there just isn't much to get excited about. It all seems routine.

Perhaps something will change. Perhaps the pace was just off to protect Ty Lawson's toe. Perhaps I'm just full of it. I hope so, but until I see a spark somewhere in play...

Senior Day

T.H. — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 20:27:54 -0000

The game currently going on is, of course, the last home game for Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Mike Copeland, Jack Wooten, J.B. Tanner and Patrick Moody. And the pre-game chatter seems to have focused on whether Duke will ruin Hansbrough's Senior Day, as UNC did J.J. Redick's. (Nothing of importance has apparently happened since 2006.) It does raise an interesting question, how many Senior Days (and nights) have been ruined over the years?

Well, Carolina comes off better than Duke. Since the founding of the ACC, the Heels are 19-7 when the last game in Chapel Hill brings Duke to town, while the Blue Devils are a more even 17-12. UNC hasn't lost on Senior Day since Matt Doherty's first season in 2001, while Duke hasn't won one against the Heels since Roy Williams' first season in 2004.

UNC 101, Duke 87

T.H. — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 04:29:42 -0000

I don't know when an opponent last racked up over 100 points in Cameron - if I had to guess I'd say the 1995 UNC team that beat the Gaudet crew in what, double overtime? - but this is surely the most enjoyable. All the talk will be about Lawson's second half performance, but he's almost always good for an excellent game. It's the rest of the team I was impressed with.

Too often this year the game has been carried solely by a combination of Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington and Green, or worse only a subset of those players. Opposing teams have twigged to that, and are spending more time doubling down on and frustrating those four than tackling the team as a whole. It was definitely Duke's plan; it's no coincidence that Deon Thompson and Bobby Frasor were the scoring leaders for the Heels during the first half. Forced to play an entire, deep, UNC team Duke just couldn't keep up. By the second half they were gasping for air and Ed Davis was making offense changing plays in the paint. Lawson, spelled in the first half for stretches by Larry Drew who kept the team on even keel, had bursts of energy the Blue Devils couldn't match. He tore through them like they were standing still and driving most of the 14-0 run late in the second that pulled the Heels away for good.

Four straight wins at Cameron. With the turnover in college basketball, there won't be that many players at UNC next season who have played with guys who have lost in Durham. There's no fear there. Thompson and Davis both, 60% free throw shooters that they are buried four from the line in the faces of a screaming crowd. Neither of the freshman seemed lost for long - only Drew when he kept losing his footing on the wet Duke floor - and Thompson was positively gleeful for most of the first half.

It wasn't a perfect game; the offense gave up too much in the first half, and I can't help but wonder what would have happened if Scheyer and Paulus had kept their hot hands after the break, but the team played smart, extremely well, and was rewarded with a near rout. If they keep improving like they have in recent weeks, there will be few teams in the country that can even keep pace.

The Race to Replace Will Graves

T.H. — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 03:13:25 -0000

There wasn't much of interest in the Virginia game on Saturday - the Cavaliers just aren't good this year - so I focused on the two players set to pick up the slack, Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew. Neither of them impressed:

Name              FG   3FG    FT   R   TP   A   TO  BLK   S  MIN
Frasor, Bobby    1-4   0-2   0-1   3    2   3    1   0    0   15
Drew II, Larry   0-1   0-0   0-2   1    0   0    2   0    0    7

Frasor made his first lay-up before missing his next three shots all in the first thirteen minutes of the game; Drew was equally ineffectual on offense, and it's no surprise both played fewer minutes than their season averages. Comparing minutes played to the previous game against Maryland, and Roy Williams definitely spread the playing time more amongst the starting five than the bench, possibly in preparation for tomorrow's Duke game. Either way, there isn't much indication on playing time going forward.

While Drew as a freshman has the greater capacity for improvement, and the team could get a leg up on next year by giving him more playing time, I wouldn't count out a Bobby Frasor resurgence. He ran the point freshman year, remember, and acquitted himself well. Behind Lawson his sophomore year he had his best shooting performance on only ten minutes per game of playing time. His evolution was cut short by the injury junior year and hampered this season by limited playing time. But recall how quickly Quentin Thomas improved when given the opportunity last season; a couple more minutes of playing time and a game or two to find his feet and Frasor could definitely be a calming, unexpected scorer on the floor for the Heels.

Ginyard Out for the Year; Graves Suspended

T.H. — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 13:14:20 -0000

I've been guilty quite a bit this year of blaming UNC's not performing to expectations (and what a world it is when 20-2, 6-2 in conference is below expectations) on the absence of Marcus Ginyard. Once he would return to the lineup, I'd think, the teams' game would shift into high gear again, they'd run through the rest of the season and win it all. Also, there would be ponies and cake.

Well, the ponies won't be coming, and the cake is a lie; Marcus Ginyard is out for the season. He's been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his left foot, and will seek a medical redshirt, as he only found his way into three games so far this year.

Adding to that, the player who had probably seen the largest increase in playing time in Ginyard's absence, Will Graves, will also no longer be taking the court this season, as he's been suspended for as Wiliams put it, failing to "maintain the standards we expect of a Carolina basketball player." Although never a critical part of the team this season, Graves was playing 26.7% of minutes on the court and took more shots than anyone outside of the starting five. He also turned the ball over at a pretty high rate, but with Zeller and Ginyard out for the season, the loss of a third body body will come as a blow. Look for Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew to pick up most of the slack created by the absences.

Barring a sudden increase in either of those players performances with the increased playing time, this looks to be the UNC team that will be making an appearance in the tournament. It's one that's still very, very good, but prone to lapses where their perimeter shooting goes cold and thy flounder in a set offense. They're an extremely mortal team, and how they rebound from these setbacks will say a lot about the direction they're headed. Luckily, a home game against hapless Virginia is next on the docket, giving them time to adjust before traveling to Durham on Wednesday.

Kentucky @ North Carolina: The two winningest programs collide

Truzenzuzex — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 22:15:19 -0000

Tonight is the night for the big game of the very early season, a UK visit to Chapel Hill to play the consensus #1 ranked North Carolina Tar Heels. This is yet another opportunity for coach Gillispie and his charges to prove that they are ready to advance the UK program from its current comparatively undistinguished status among the national elite.

As we all know, the Tar Heels have managed four wins in a row, one in each of Tyler Hansbrough's years in Chapel Hill. Obviously, this grates very much on the nerves of Kentucky fans, and even though the situation is far from ideal for the Wildcats to turn around this most recent tendency, it is still an opportunity for the Wildcats to excel.

Many may think that coming off a disappointing loss to a relatively weaker VMI team last Friday makes it less likely that the 'Cats will be able to seriously contest North Carolina and have a chance to come back to Lexington with a victory. I actually believe the converse, that the most recent debacle exposed fully to both the staff and the team the problems it must overcome to be successful. How much "overcoming" can be done in three days remains to be seen.

Starting Lineups

Let's take a look at the major players and likely starting lineups for both teams (statistics courtesy of Statsheet.com):

Kentucky Player Stats
Player	GP/GS	MPG	PPG	FG%	3PTFG%	FT%	RPG	APG	TOPG	A/T	SPG	BPG
P. Stevenson	1/1	40	20	66.70%	0.00%	80.00%	14	2	2	1	2	4
J. Meeks	1/1	34	39	48.10%	27.30%	83.30%	4	1	5	0.2	3	0
P. Patterson	1/1	27	8	75.00%	0.00%	66.70%	7	3	1	3	0	3
R. Harris	1/1	27	16	60.00%	0.00%	50.00%	3	2	3	0.7	1	0
D. Liggins	1/0	27	6	42.90%	0.00%	0.00%	7	5	7	0.7	0	2
D. Miller	1/0	21	12	62.50%	0.00%	50.00%	8	2	2	1	0	0
M. Porter	1/1	18	2	50.00%	0.00%	0.00%	3	1	5	0.2	0	0
J. Harrellson	1/0	6	0	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2	1	0	0	0	1


North Carolina Player Stats
Player	GP/GS	MPG	PPG	FG%	3PTFG%	FT%	RPG	APG	TOPG	A/T	SPG	BPG
D. Thompson	1/1	29	17	63.60%	0.00%	75.00%	7	1	1	1	1	1
W. Ellington	1/1	28	13	33.30%	28.60%	33.30%	5	5	1	5	2	1
T. Lawson	1/1	27	12	28.60%	40.00%	100.00%	0	5	2	2.5	2	0
D. Green	1/1	24	12	71.40%	50.00%	0.00%	4	4	0	0	3	0
T. Zeller	1/1	23	18	62.50%	0.00%	80.00%	2	1	1	1	1	1
E. Davis	1/0	22	10	75.00%	0.00%	50.00%	14	0	4	0	0	1
B. Frasor	1/0	21	3	20.00%	25.00%	0.00%	2	3	1	3	0	1
L. Drew II	1/0	12	1	0.00%	0.00%	50.00%	3	2	2	1	0	1

	Likely starters

There are obviously not enough statistics accumulated at this point to have any meaningful discussion of them, but that's what we have so far, meaningless or otherwise.

What we do have ar a comparison of some of these players from last year. So let's see what these statistics tell us:

Deon Thompson vs. Patrick Patterson

Size wise and game wise, these two guys are just about a perfect matchup. Thompson is a junior, which gives him a bit of an advantage in experience. So let's go to the stats from last year and see who has the advantage:

	Thompson	Patterson		Thompson	Patterson
Bio			Stats			Advantage
Height	6'8"	6'8"	Minutes Per Game	21.4	35.7	N/A
Weight	240	235	Points	328	411
Position	Forward	Forward	Points Per Game	8.4	16.4	Patterson
Home State	California	West Virginia	High Game Points	17	24	Patterson
Current Age	20	19	Field Goal Percentage	48.1	57.4	Patterson
			Free Throw Percentage	59.5	73.1	Patterson
			3pt Field Goal Percentage	0	0	N/A
			Rebounds Per Game	4.8	7.7	Patterson
			Offensive Rebounds Per Game	1.9	2.8	Patterson
			Defensive Rebounds Per Game	2.9	4.8	Patterson
			Assists Per Game	1.1	1.7	Patterson
			Steals Per Game	0.7	0.8	Patterson
			Blocks Per Game	1.3	1.2	Thompson
			Turnovers Per Game	1.4	2.1	Thompson
			Fouls Per Game	2.3	2.8	Thompson

Kentucky is looking good in this matchup statistically, but we haven't taken into consideration that Thompson has had a whole off-season to develop his skills, whereas Patrick Patterson has spent his entire off-season recovering from orthopedic surgery, and there is some feeling among the Big Blue Nation, including yours truly, that Patterson is not yet 100% recovered.

So while we may be tempted to call this matchup for Patterson, I think I would resist that. Instead, I am going to call it a slight advantage for Thompson based on the overall balance of factors.

Jodie Meeks vs. Wayne Ellington

Because of Meeks' injury, we would have to compare his freshman season, and that is not very useful, so we won't be going to the stats on this one. Meeks is a little bit bigger and stronger, but both players have very similar games. Both are reliable three-point shooters and both are excellent free throw shooters.

This matchup is simply too close to call, which is a good thing for Kentucky. Meeks has been a scoring machine for UK, primarily because he must be. Ellington has not scored as much as Meeks, perhaps, on a per-game basis in the few comparable games they have played, but if he were one of two scoring options, he arguably would have. Neither player has an advantage here.

Ramon Harris vs. Danny Green

On paper, this looks like a mismatch. Danny Green is a proven athletic scorer, and Ramon Harris is the Wildcats' toughest defender. So let's go to last year's stats and see what they say:

	Green	Harris
Bio			Playing Time	Green	Harris	Advantage
Height	6'6"	6'6"	Games Played	39	27	N/A
Weight	210	218	Games Started	1	25	Harris
Position	Guard/Forward	Forward	Minutes Per Game	22.3	22.6	N/A
Home State	New York	Alaska	Points Per Game	11.5	4.2	Green
Current Age	21	20	High Game Points	20	12	Green
			Field Goal Percentage	46.9	50.7	Harris
			Free Throw Percentage	87.3	60	Green
			3pt Field Goal Percentage	37.3	36	Green
			Rebounds Per Game	4.9	3.5	Green
			Offensive Rebounds Per Game	1.7	0.9	Green
			Defensive Rebounds Per Game	3.2	2.6	Green
			Assists Per Game	2	1.2	Green
			Steals Per Game	1.2	1	Green
			Blocks Per Game	1.2	0.5	Green
			Turnovers Per Game	1.9	1.9	Push
			Fouls Per Game	2.3	1.9	Green

Basically, this is a contest between two very good players with very different games. Danny Green is capable of going off for big points from absolutely anyhwere on the court. Harris is one of the better defenders in the SEC, and has improved his shooting and ballhandling over the course of the year. It really comes down to what you value more -- offense or defense.

I'm going to give a small advantage to Danny Green. He is a more highly touted player, and his offensive ability give him a bit of an advantage overall. It isn't as big an advantage as you might think, but that's how I'm going to call it.

Ty Lawson vs. Michael Porter

Lets start with the stats:

	Lawson	Porter
Bio			Playing Time	Lawson	Porter	Advantage
Height	5'11"	6'3"	Games Played	32	25	N/A
Weight	195	198	Games Started	29	9	Lawson
Position	Guard	Guard	Minutes Per Game	25.3	15.4	N/A
Home State	Maryland	California	Points Per Game	12.7	2	Lawson
Current Age	21	21	High Game Points	26	9	Lawson
			Field Goal Percentage	51.5	30.6	Lawson
			Free Throw Percentage	83.5	87.5	Porter
			3pt Field Goal Percentage	36.1	41.9	Porter
			Rebounds Per Game	2.7	1.2	Lawson
			Offensive Rebounds Per Game	0.5	0.3	Lawson
			Defensive Rebounds Per Game	2.3	0.8	Lawson
			Assists Per Game	5.2	1.1	Lawson
			Steals Per Game	1.6	0.8	Lawson
			Blocks Per Game	0	0.1	Porter
			Turnovers Per Game	2.2	1.6	Porter
			Fouls Per Game	1.8	1.8	Push

Obviously, this is a mismatch on paper, and in reality. Ty Lawson is simply a much better point guard than Michael Porter in almost every respect. Lawson is also much too quick for Porter to guard. Not only is he too quick for Porter to guard, he is to quick for anyone on Kentucky's team to guard.

If there is a spot that will lose Kentucky this game, it is here. Michael Porter has yet to prove himself against quality competition, and this is one tough spot to have to try to do that. I wish I had better news for the Big Blue Nation, but reality cannot be ignored. North Carolina has a large advantage here.

Perry Stevenson vs. Tyler Zeller

There are no stats for Zeller, so a statistical comparison is moot. Tyler Zeller is a highly-touted freshman, and is a very capable player. Perry Stevenson, however, is all those things plus a junior. Stevenson is more athletic and has developed into a dangerous offensive player. We didn't get to see it much in the last game, but Stevenson is much more confident with the ball in his hands, now, and is even capable of beating players his size off the dribble.

This is the one matchup where Kentucky has a decided advantage. Normally, Tyler Hansbrough would be in this spot, and the advantage would be very much the other way, but Hansbrough is inured and unable to play.

The benches

North Carolina has a deeper and more experienced bench, but most of UNC's most talented players on the bench this year are freshman. Ed Davis was a five-star recruit for Roy Williams, and he will see significant action against the 'Cats. He is an athletic swing forward who at 6'10" can play either forward spot and is a special talent. Bobby Frasor is an experienced point guard who was badly injured last year, and I am not sure if he will be available.

Kentucky counters with the highly-touted DeAndre Liggins and Darius Miller at the wing spots, and Josh Harrellson down low. All in all, it is a fairly close call between the benches, although I am inclined to give North Carolina an edge here due to slightly higher talent level and more experience.

Coaches

At this point, there is no argument here -- Roy Williams is a national championship coach and has won more games by accident than Billy Gillispie has on purpose. That isn't a knock against Gillispie, it is just the fact that Williams has been a Division I head coach much longer, and at two elite level schools.

For Gillsipie, this is a chance to earn himself some noteriety by knocking of arguably one of the top two or three head coaches in the college basketball game.

Wrap up

North Carolina is going to push, and after VMI, I have no idea how the Wildcats are going to respond. In the front court with Hansbrough down, Kentucky has a small advantage. In the back court, the Tar Heels have a decided advantage. My experience is that the backcourt differential will matter more, but that isn't necessarily so.

The Tar Heels are heavily favored, but the Wildcats are capable. Will they pull of the upset? We don't know now, but we will in four short hours.

Time to talk about the Big Game -- Kentucky vs. North Carolina

Truzenzuzex — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 13:20:20 -0000

I decided to take Sunday off from serious blogging. Even God rested on Sunday. But the time has come to talk about the mighty University of North Carolina Tarheels, a team that has dominated us in every respect (except Tyler Hansbrough) for the last four years running.

It truly grates on my nerves that we have been so futile against this team recently. In an odd twist of fate, North Carolina was a team against whom we had great success during the early part of this decade winning four in a row, but the last four years, our fortunes have reversed. Now the Wildcats limp into Chapel Hill having lost for the second time in as many years to a team that was counted as an automatic victory when the schedule was made.

Regarding that VMI loss, one point that nobody really made was the fact that we were uncompetitive against Gardener-Webb, and never really had a chance to win that game. The same cannot be said about VMI, although anyone can argue that we never should have been 20+ points down to such a team in the first place. But be that as it may, let's hope the lessons we take away from that unfortunate game serve us well in the future.

The future, my brothers and sisters of the Big Blue Nation, is just about here. Our tilt tomorrow night with North Carolina will be replete with "tut-tut" references about our loss to VMI, and all sorts of talk about our recent domination at the hands of the Tarheels. Turn off the audio if you must, but don't let it get to you. This is a matchup that will really tell us where we are right now. There are no gimmicks in the UNC offense to trip us up, no crazy mismatches, just talented, experienced players and a deep, talented bench. This is a straight-up basketball game, and a chance for the Wildcats to announce to the world that the days of futility are over.

Conversely, it is also an opportunity for us to start the 2008-09 season 0-2 and drive the Big Blue Faithful into recriminations and disarray. That's what happens around here when things go badly, and it gets progressively harder for our fans to have patience when expectations are so high. In fact, given the tremendous talent we are facing and the fact we are facing it on the road, the odds are that my post mortem on tomorrow's game will be another exercise in frustration. Those are the odds, but I hope we beat them and frankly, think we can.

I'll get to the stats later, but one thing we do know is that UNC is without two of the guys who eschewed the riches of the NCAA to come back for another year under Ol' Roy -- Marcus Ginyard and most likely Tyler Hansbrough. I have lamented not being able to face the 'Heels at full strength because it puts a virtual asterisk by an victory, but after the VMI game, I am no longer of that opinion. I'll take the "W" if we can get it, asterisk and all.

There is no way the 'Cats are as talented as the 'Heels this year, and that will matter. But as we amply saw on Friday, talent doesn't always carry the day. North Carolina has been a historically slow-starting team under Roy Williams, and their victory against a badly banged-up Penn Quakers team, while solid, was hardly the kind of performance that will strike fear into the hearts of the Wildcats.

Kentucky's team this year matches up very well with the Tarheels in every position but one, and that is point guard. Michael Porter, in all probability, cannot guard Ty Lawson at all, and certainly not in the open floor, and neither can DeAndre Liggins at this point in his career. Not only that, backup PG Bobby Frasor is healthy and is also a match-up problem due to his experience. That's going to be a problem. But otherwise, UK matches up very well against Carolina athletically, size-wise and depth wise. Their talent is better, but not overwhelmingly so.

As I said, I'll have more in-depth stuff later, but let's hear your thoughts on this game.

Poll

What will Dick Vitale mention the most times during tomorrow's game between Kentucky and North Carolina?

The UK loss to VMI Friday

60 votes

Ashley Judd

22 votes

How great Tyler Hansbrough is

126 votes

How much UNC misses Hansbrough and Marcus Ginyard

106 votes

"The General"

3 votes

Duke or Mike Krzyzewski

77 votes

394 votes | Poll has closed