SB Nation - Danny Green

Ask The Enemy: Texas vs North Carolina

Peter Bean — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 02:50:26 -0000

More photos » by Michael Thomas - AP

He is big. He is sexy. Dexter Pittman is Big Sexy.

Texas faces by far their stiffest of the season on Saturday when they travel to Jerryworld to battle North Carolina on the hardwood (1:00 CT, ESPN). I asked Carolina March to help prep us on the Tar Heels. Our Q&A is below.

We'll get to the game momentarily, but first: In 2007-08, had no one defected early to the NBA, Texas could have sent out the following starting line up:

PG: DJ Augustin (Sophomore)
SG: Daniel Gibson (Senior)
G/F: Kevin Durant (Sophomore)
F: PJ Tucker (Senior)
C: LaMarcus Aldridge (Senior)

I'm certain early attrition has prevented North Carolina from fielding an equally jaw-dropping line up. Give us the Tar Heels' equivalent (from the last 10 years or so), and give us your take on the match up with our Dream Team.

Carolina March: One of the keys to UNC's success the past couple of year's is that they've kept players for three to four years, so the ideal, nobody-defects teams aren't that much different from what you actually saw on the court. So yeah, a 2006 team that kept the core of the previous year's national championship squad (Sean May, Rashad McCants, Raymond Felton and Marvin Williams) and added Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green and Marcus Ginyard would be pretty awesome. As would the 2007 and 2008 squads, which would take Hansbrough, Green, Ginyard and Williams and add Brandan Wright, Ty Lawson, and Wayne Ellington. If nobody graduates, there's a solid three years where UNC fields a team with six or more NBA players.

But Carolina fans have also lived through seasons like 1993-1994, where a championship team returned everybody but George Lynch and then added freshmen Jerry Stackhouse, Rasheed Wallace, and Jeff McInnis, only to have the team deliver the earliest NCAA tournament exit in fifteen-plus years. So I'll take what we got, two national championships in five years and a host of good performances in between.

UNC has played three Top 40 teams already, defeating Ohio State (77-73) and Michigan State (89-82), while dropping a pair to Syracuse (87-71) and Kentucky (68-66). The Longhorns, meanwhile, haven't even played a Top 50 team yet. Two related questions, then: First, it has appeared to me that UNC has been improving along the way -- is that fair to say? And second, do you expect the tougher competition (and improvement along the way) to be a meaningful advantage for UNC?

Carolina March: The team has definitely improved, and I do think the level of competition has played a big part in that. With a team as young as this one – at least five freshman get significant playing time – I don't think sheltering them for the first half of the season with a diet of cupcakes would have been very helpful. How it will help them over the entire season is debatable; it may only gain them a couple of early wins in the ACC as they're more up to speed, or it may have no effect whatsoever. Even if it's the latter, I'd still prefer this type of scheduling, as games against Kentucky and Texas are much more fun to watch as a fan than having the team be undefeated and higher ranked at the end of December.

How this scheduling will help against Texas is less clear. I'd like to think that the Longhorns inexperience coupled with Carolina's scheduling gives them a great opportunity to come out strong, put Texas on their heels and watch them self-destruct as they've failed to encounter serious competition so far this season. But I thought the same thing about Kentucky, and they handled an early UNC barrage without batting an eye, and went on to win. Rick Barnes seems pretty good at keeping his players focused.

How good is Ed Davis? Like, does his badassage make you snicker a little when you think about other teams not having Ed Davis? And most importantly, is he as Sexy as Dexter Pittman? Thoughts on this match up? Does he have the strength at 225 to deal with Big Sexy?

Carolina March: First of all, please never use the words "Big" and "Sexy" in conjunction in an e-mail to me again. [No deal. --ed] Now, the baddassage of Ed Davis has for the most part been hidden under a bushel this season. He's played well, but there's an expectation that he'll completely take over a game, and so far that hasn't been the case. Some of that's due to the fact that the current system makes it difficult to put everything in the hands of one big man, and there's also the fact that in following Tyler Hansborough, the fans' expectations may be a little to high for any sophomore to live up to. Either way, it feels like he's on the cusp of truly destroying a big-name opponent, and everyone's on the edge of their seats waiting for that to happen, rather than just enjoying the moment.

The interesting thing about matching up with Pittman is that it probably won't be Ed Davis on him most of the time. Deon Thompson is the bigger body, and there's a string of players 6'10" and taller coming off the bench, all with different strengths. I'd expect the Heels to keep throwing different bodies at Pittman on both ends of the court to keep him off guard and hopefully push him into foul trouble early.

We know that UNC plays fast, but at the moment it seems to be coming at the expense of a pretty poor turnover rate. Tell us about UNC's tempo and style of play, and the turnovers issue?

Carolina March: Rapid play has always lead to more turnovers, and it's a trade-off for the most part that Roy Willams has been willing to expect. An errant pass on a fast break is no worse than failing to get an offensive rebound on a set play, and as long as it doesn't lead to fast break in the opposite direction, there's little harm done. That being said, UNC has given up more steals than I would like, which was particularly deadly against Syracuse and Kentucky. They're a young team still working out some kinks, but a good defensive team can take advantage of that pretty easily.

There's no question that the Tar Heels have more than enough speed and athleticism to play with Texas, but I wonder about whether they're prepared for Texas' exceptionally physical style of play. We're not talking Big East Brute-icism here, but the Longhorns don't mind banging and play intense, physical defense. Does UNC neutralize that with their speed? How did you think they fared against a similarly physical and defensive-minded Kentucky squad?

Carolina March: I don't think the speed really does neutralize anything, especially since Carolina likes to run off of defensive rebounds. If Texs beats them up enough inside that they can't get those rebounds, the Heels are in trouble. What you may be underestimating is the sheer number of players Carolina can rotate into the post. They've got six players who can legitimately play center (Thompson, Davis, Zeller, Henson, and the two Wear brothers) and although many of them are young and not all that muscular - Henson in particular could use a couple hundred sandwiches - their height and fresh legs could draw the Texas big men into serious foul trouble. Don't forget, Rick Barnes once had to finish a game against UNC with only four players on the court the foul situation was so dire.

[You're absolutely right that I underestimated the Tar Heels size (and by a lot), although equally to blame was writing questions for UNC and MSU at the same time, during which I completely mixed up the size of UNC. In any case, it makes all the difference in the world for how UNC can, and perhaps should, play Texas. --ed]

Give us four signs -- two positive, two negative -- that, upon seeing them develop in the game, will make you cackle with delight / cringe in fear about the outcome.

Carolina March: Early frustration on the faces of Texas players will be the most promising sign, whether by denying them rebounds, dragging them into foul trouble early, or just altering shots with height the Longhorns aren't used to seeing. Couple that with good outside shooting early to prevent Texas from collapsing on the inside on defense, and I'll be thrilled right off the bat. On the other hand, if UNC can't get the ball inside without putting in the opposing teams' hands, I'll begin to cringe. And if they go into full-out panic mode, with rushed shots, poor ball movement, and the stretches of play that killed them against Syracuse and Kentucky, well, I'll be hiding my head under a pillow by the second half.

BtB 2009-10 ACC Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:00:28 -0000

North Carolina claimed the conference's 11th national title last season, but thanks to major personnel losses, they'll be hard pressed to repeat. The Tar Heels aren't alone, as the overwhelming majority of teams in the ACC lost at least one key player during the offseason. Not only will Wayne Ellington, Danny Green, Tyler Hansbrough, and Ty Lawson not be in the league next year; players like Alade Aminu, Brandon Costner, Toney Douglas, Gerald Henderson, James Johnson, Jack McClinton, Terrence Oglesby, Greg Paulus. K.C. Rivers, Jeff Teague, and A.D. Vassallo will be missing as well. But as is traditional, plenty of high-profile recruits have signed on with the league's 12 teams--with Derrick Favors, John Henson, Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumley, Durand Scott, and Michael Snaer the most prominent newcomers.

These freshmen will join several returning stars who have already shown brightly in the ACC universe, like Al-Faroq Aminu, Trevor Booker, Ed Davis, Malcolm Delaney, Gani Lawal, Sylven Landesberg, Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, and Greivis Vasquez. Those are the type of impact players who can keep the league at the forefront of the national conversation for yet another season.

The big question is whether one of the teams can get the old and new to mix well enough to claim the conference's 12th crown in Indianapolis in April. More on the 12 contenders after the jump.

Here's a recap of last year's ACC standings.

Atlantic Coast Conference Standings

(updated 4.7.2009 at 12:22 AM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
North Carolina Tar Heels	13	3	34	4
Duke Blue Devils	11	5	30	7
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	11	5	24	7
Florida St. Seminoles	10	6	25	10
Clemson Tigers	9	7	23	9
Boston College Eagles	9	7	22	12
Maryland Terrapins	7	9	21	14
Miami Hurricanes	7	9	19	13
Virginia Tech Hokies	7	9	19	15
N.C. State Wolfpack	6	10	16	14
Virginia Cavaliers	4	12	10	18
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	2	14	12	19

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a team's name appears in red, click the link to visit that school's SB Nation site, where you'll find complete coverage and analysis throughout the season.

NC State (last NCAA: 2006) The Wolfpack could be in for a very long season, as the top three scorers are gone from a team that won only 6 ACC games last season. 6-8 junior F Tracy Smith (10 ppg, 4.5 rpg) is Sidney Lowe's leading returning scorer, and the coach has to settle on a point guard with Javier Gonzalez (6.6 ppg, 3.3 apg), Farnold Degand (4.7 ppg, 2.4 apg), and Julius Mays (4.7 ppg, 1.9 apg) all options. 6-9 senior Dennis Horner (6.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg) joins Smith in the frontcourt, but three freshmen--6-7 Richard Howell, 6-9 DeShawn Painter, and 7-0 Australian Jordan Vandenberg--will see significant minutes. Another newcomer, 6-6 Scott Wood, will get time as a swingman. NC State's schedule includes a home game with Georgia State in the Glenn Wilkes Classic, followed by games with Akron, Austin Peay, and Auburn in Daytona Beach. They face Northwestern in the ACC/BIg Ten Challenge; visit Marquette; and face Arizona and Florida in Raleigh.

Miami (last NCAA: 2008) PG Jack McClinton graduated after a season that ended with a loss to Florida in the second round of the NIT. It was a disappointing end to a year that started with high expectations. Now, McClinton's replacement, Villanova transfer Malcolm Grant, walks into a situation where he'll be the floor general for a team with few hopes. Frank Haith's squad got a major boost when 6-8 senior F Dwayne Collins (10.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg) decided to withdraw from the NBA Draft. That decision really helped the Canes' frontcourt, as 6-9 senior Cyrus McGowan (4.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and 6-7 senior Adrian Thomas (5.1 ppg, 2.3 ppg) would have been the most experienced players on the unit. 6-9 redshirt freshman Reggie Johnson will see action this season, as will several backcourt newcomers. 6-6 Garrius Adams, 6-1 Antoine Allen, and 6-5 Durand Scott--one of the top SG prospects--in the country will be called into immediate action to support Grant and 6-4 senior James Dews (8.2 ppg, 2.7 rpg). The Canes will take on Tulane in their first game at the Charleston Classic, then face either UNC Wilmington or NIT champ Penn State. They also host Minnesota in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and visit Pepperdine.

Virginia (last NCAA: 2007) Tony Bennett was the surprise choice to replace Dave Leitao as head coach during the offseason. Now, while Bennett's arrival won't improve an offense that rated 11th in the league last season, the defense should improve (and it won't be hard as UVa rated 12th in scoring D in the ACC). That should result in more wins for a team that has talent. 6-6 sophomore Sylven Landesberg was a worthy replacement for Sean Singletary, as he averaged 16.6 points, 6 boards, and 2.8 assists a game during his freshman year. 6-8 Mike Scott is a frontcourt talent, but he needs to be more assertive. If he can do that, he'll improve on his already decent numbers of 10.3 ppg and 7.4 rpg. Virginia fans are hoping Bennett is working closely with his guards, as 6-2 Calvin Baker (8.4 ppg, 2.8 apg) and 6-0 Sammy Zeglinski (7.8 ppg, 3 apg) are just about as adept at passing the ball to the other team as they are to feeding teammates. (Both averaged 2.5 TO per game last season.) 5-11 freshman Jontel Evans is ready to take over the point if they don't improve. 6-8 freshman F Tristan Spurlock provides the Cavaliers with a legit inside/outside threat, so he'll see time right off the bat as well. The Cavaliers will be tested in the Cancun Challenge, and not only in the games in Mexico against Stanford, then Kentucky or Cleveland State. They face two difficult opponents, Rider and Oral Roberts, in Charlottesville before they head to the Caribbean.

Virginia Tech (last NCAA: 2007) Seth Greenberg has a major hole to fill, thanks to the graduation of A.D. Vassallo, but the Hokies' roster still features a lot of talent. 6-3 junior PG Malcolm Delaney becomes the face of the program, and he's already one of the best returning players in the league (18.1 ppg, 4 rpg, 4.5 apg). 6-7 FJeff Allen (13.7 ppg, 8.7 rpg) could fill the same role in the frontcourt, if he stays consistent and on his best behavior. 6-6 junior J.T. Thompson (6.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg) should provide more support after struggling through an injury-plagued season, as should 6-8 Victor Davila, who averaged 3.1 points and 2 boards a game in limited action. The Hokies' newcomers will see some time right off the bat--6-4 Erick Green backing up Delaney, 6-4 Ben Boggs at off guard, and 6-7 Manny Atkins in Vassallo's swingman spot. VPI's schedule features games against Delaware and Temple in the Philly Hoop Group Classic; at Iowa in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge; at Penn State; and against Seton Hall in Cancun to kickoff the New Year.

Wake Forest (last NCAA: 2009) The Demon Deacons will be without James Johnson and Jeff Teague, two major losses for a team that faded after a brief stay atop the polls. Even without Johnson, Dino Gaudio's frontcourt is a talented one, thanks to the presence of 6-9 sophomore Al-Faroq Aminu (12.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg). 7-foot senior C Chris McFarland (8.7 ppg, 5.8 rpg) could be more of a factor if he can play more consistently and stay off the bench. After those two, the Deacons' other bigs have a lot of room to improve. David Weaver, Tony Woods, and Ty Walker only managed to average a combined 6.2 points and 6.2 boards a game last season. 6-7 freshman Ari Stewart could see a lot of the minutes Johnson played in '08-09. In the backcourt, Teague's scoring punch will be missed. 6-0 PG Ishmael Smith (6.2 ppg, 3.4 apg) is a good passer, but lacks an outside shot, while 6-4 L.D. Williams (8 ppg) is more of a factor on the defensive end. 6-4 JC transfer Konner Tucker, who committed to Kentucky out of high school, will play shooting guard. Wake's schedule isn't overwhelming. They take on Purdue in the ACC/BIg Ten Challenge, visit Gonzaga, and host A-10 powers Dayton and Xavier around the New Year.

Boston College (last NCAA: 2009) Al Skinner's squad should be OK this year as they learn to play without Tyrese Rice, but expect next year to be even better as 6-7 reserve F Tyler Roche is the only senior on the roster. 6-1 junior Biko Paris (3.4, 1.7 apg) will get the first crack at replacing Rice, while 6-5 swingman Rakim Sanders (12.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg) and 6-3 Reggie Jackson--a 44 percent shooter who only averaged 7 points a game last year--will provide offense from the backcourt. The frontcourt will be pretty good, as 6-8 F Joe Trapani (13.4, 6.6) and 6-6 F Corey Raji (9.9 ppg, 6.1 rpg) have shown they can be a force in the ACC, and 6-10 Josh Southern (6.5 ppg while shooting 50.3% from the floor) could be if he's more assertive. The Eagles will face St. Joseph's in their opening game at the Paradise Jam, with a contest against either Purdue or South Dakota State to follow on day 2. The Eagles travel to Providence and Michigan in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, while they host UMass and South Carolina.

Clemson (last NCAA: 2009) Three key players from last year's squad are gone--swingman K.C. Rivers, big man Raymond Sykes, and sharpshooter Terrence Oglesby, who left to play professionally in Europe, but the top rebounder and field goal shooter in the league, 6-7 Trevor Booker (15.3 ppg, 9.7 rpg) is back for his senior season. The arrival of his brother Devin, a 6-8 F/C, and 6-9 Milton Jennings, a McDonald's All-American, gives the frontcourt an immediate boost. 6-6 Noel Johnson, a swingman who originally committed to Southern Cal, should prove to be a nice replacement for Rivers. The backcourt could be a bit of a concern for Oliver Purnell; however, as 6-2 junior PG Demontez Stitt (8.7 ppg, 3.8 apg) can be a bit inconsistent. That means 5-9 Andre Young (4.4 ppg, 2.1 apg) could see plenty of time at the 1 spot. Overall, the Tigers will really have to do better from the charity stripe this season, as they ranked 10th in the ACC last season. The Tigers will play in the very tough 76 Classic in Anaheim, where they open with Texas A&M. They also take on Illinois in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and host archrival South Carolina.

Florida State (last NCAA: 2009) The Seminoles' heart and soul of the past few seasons, ACC leading scorer and Defensive Player of the Year Toney Douglas, graduated, as did F Uche Echefu. So that means FSU will be headed back to the NIT, right? Well, thanks to the return of a bunch of key players and one top recruit, don't expect the Noles to fall too far. 7-1 sophomore Solomon Alabi (8.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.1 bpg), an inside force and the team's leading returning scorer, anchors a frontcourt that also features 6-9 Chris Singleton (8.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg), 6-11 Xavier Gibson (2.3 ppg, 1.4 rpg in 6 mpg), and 6-8 senior Ryan Reid (4.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg). The big issue for FSU's backcourt is finding a replacement for Douglas. 6-4 junior Derwin Kitchen (7.9 ppg, 2.5 apg) could be the answer from a passing and defensive perspective, while 6-5 freshman Michael Snaer--who averaged 28 ppg during a senior year in which he was named California HS player of the year--could replace his scoring. If the returnees kick their scoring up a notch, FSU will be right back in the Dance. The Seminoles will be tested by a schedule that includes the Old Spice Classic--where they should have more of a home advantage than UCF had in 2007. They'll open that tournament with Iona, then face Alabama or Baylor on Day 2. Leonard Hamilton's squad also travels to archrival Florida and faces Ohio State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

Maryland (last NCAA: 2009) The equation for the Terrapins is pretty simple. If Greivis Vasquez is healthy and playing well, they'll be pretty good. The 6-6 Venezuelan senior decided to not enter the NBA Draft, and that's a good thing for Gary Williams' side. It not only would have been difficult to replace his 17.5 points, 5.4 boards, and 5 assists per game, but it would have been impossible to replace his heart and spirit. 6-4 Eric Hayes (10.3 ppg, 3.2 apg) and 6-2 drive-first junior Adrian Bowie (9 ppg, 2.5 apg) join Vasquez to form one of the top backcourt units in the league. The frontcourt features 6-7 senior Landon Milbourne (11.4 ppg, 5.2 rpg) and not much else in the way of experience, especially after Dave Neal's graduation. Freshmen James Padgett (6-8) and Jordan Williams (6-9) will be expected to provide instant interior presence for the Terps. Maryland will play in Maui, where they open with Chaminade before facing either Cincinnati or Vanderbilt on Day 2. They visit Indiana in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and Villanova in DC at the BB&T Classic.

Georgia Tech (last NCAA: 2007) While the Yellow Jackets won't have the services of either Alade Aminu inside or Lewis Clinch outside, they will be a bigger threat thanks to the arrival of a true game-changer, 6-10 freshman Derrick Favors. He'll join a frontcourt that retains 6-9 junior Gani Lawal (15.1 ppg, 9.5 rpg) and 6-8 Zachary Peacock (9.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg). The backcourt could be Paul Hewitt's squad's Achilles heel, however. 6-5 guard Iman Shumpert's (10.6 ppg) assist-to-turnover ratio of 5 to 3.7 was way too high. He may handle the ball less this season, especially since 6-2 Maurice Miller (5.8 ppg, 4.3 apg) and 6-2 freshman Mfon Udofia are both capable point guards. The Yellow Jackets' schedule features some nice matchups, as they face Dayton, then either George Mason or Villanova in the first two days of the Puerto Rico Tip-Off. Tech also hosts Hewitt's former employer, Siena, and USC.

Duke (last NCAA: 2009) In a rarity for a recent Duke team, Mike Krzyzewski's 2009-10 Blue Devil outfit will be frontcourt-oriented, thanks to the departure of Gerald Henderson, Greg Paulus, and Elliot Williams. While 6-5 Jon Scheyer (14.9 ppg, 2.8 apg) and 6-2 junior Nolan Smith (8.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg) are back, and 6-4 freshman Andre Hawkins enrolled early, the Duke backcourt will be extremely thin. It's so thin that Kyle Singler, a 6-8 junior who averaged 16.5 points and 7.7 rebounds a game in '08-09, will spend a lot of time on the wing this season. The frontcourt is talented, but will lack experience. 7-1 senior C Brian Zoubeck (4.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg) and 6-8 senior PF Lance Thomas (5.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg) are the key holdovers from last season, but they'll be pushed hard by two 6-10 McDonald's All-Americans, Mason Plumlee (brother of Duke soph Miles) and Ryan Kelly. They're two players who will cause major matchup problems for opponents, as they love to get out and play on the perimeter on offense. If the new guys live up to the hype, it could be a big year in Durham. Duke's schedule includes the NIT Season Tip-Off. They'll take on Coastal Carolina in their first game, then face either Charlotte or Elon with a ticket to New York on the line. The Blue Devils will play at Wisconsin in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, face Gonzaga in New York, Iowa State in Chicago, and Tulsa in a rare late February non-conference tilt.

North Carolina (last NCAA: 2009) This pick relies on a lot of "ifs." Considering that Roy Williams lost an average of 66.2 ppg when Wayne Ellington, Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, and Ty Lawson left Chapel Hill, it won't be easy for the Tar Heels to repeat as NCAA Champion. It will even be tough for them to retain the ACC title. That being said, between the returnees--led by 6-8 senior Deon Thompson (10.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg) and 6-10 Ed Davis (6.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg, but bound to do better when playing more minutes)--and a sterling group of newcomers, the Heels should be able to keep making national noise. Davis and Thompson will be joined in the frontcourt by 6-10 frosh John Henson, who does a lot of everything well. The biggest knock on him is his weight (195 lbs.), but that won't stop him from being a force at this level. 6-5 swingman Marcus Ginyard was out for all but three games last year with an injury, while 6-6 G/F Will Graves (4 ppg, 2.6 rpg) is also back after missing time last season for disciplinary reasons. Freshmen Leslie McDonald (6-4) and Dexter Strickland (6-3) will also see plenty of action in their first season. The revamped Tar Heels will get their first test against in the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, with a game against Ohio State to start, then one with California or Syracuse to follow the next night. They also host Nevada and Texas; face a rematch with Michigan State (in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge); and visit Kentucky.

The Tar Heels are my pick to repeat in the ACC, though they'll have a more difficult time this season with a younger roster. They'll hold the league's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. Check in then to see which other ACC squads I think have the best chance to go dancing in March.

To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-ACC team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-ACC Team

Player of the Year: Greivis Vasquez, 6-6 G, Sr. (Maryland)

Remainder of the Team
Trevor Booker, 6-7 F, Sr. (Clemson)
Ed Davis, 6-10 F, So. (North Carolina)
Malcolm Delaney, 6-3 G, Jr. (Virginia Tech)
Kyle Singler, 6-8 F, Jr. (Duke)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the ACC this season?

Boston College

9 votes

Clemson

1 votes

Duke

35 votes

Florida State

1 votes

Georgia Tech

3 votes

Maryland

37 votes

Miami

0 votes

North Carolina

22 votes

NC State

2 votes

Virginia

1 votes

Virginia Tech

1 votes

Wake Forest

3 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

And Danny Green Heads to Cleveland

T.H. — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 03:24:57 -0000

It took a bit longer, but with the 46th pick Danny Green joined LeBron James and Shaquille O'Neal with the Cavaliers. It's a late pick for someone who was shooting up the ranks of small forwards in the last couple of days. He'll be a great defender for the Cavs, though. Too bad that I can't help thinking the O'Neal/James combo is going to be a bit of a disaster next season.

With the 21st Pick...

atthehive — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:07:27 -0000

Slightly longish post ahead, but it should be worth it. As outlined in yesterday's post, there is some solid statistical backing for the "Blair or Bust" line of thinking. There simply is not a big worth the guaranteed dollars at 21 overall. Unless Blair falls to the level, the Hornets have to be looking elsewhere. But who?

The Candidates

Eric Maynor because... a good percentage of mocks have us taking him. He gained national attention by knocking off Duke that one time and almost knocking off UCLA this year.

Marcus Thornton because... Hornets fans seem to have fallen in love with the guy, and he's a New Orleans product. He gained national attention by winning the Southeastern Conference Player of the Year Award.

Sam Young because... he's 6'6", is athletic, shoots the three, and projects as a plus defender. He gained national attention by averaging 23 points per game in this year's Tournament.

Austin Daye because... he's super long, deep range. He hasn't really gained much national attention yet.

Danny Green because... John Hollinger loves him, and Hollinger usually nails two or three sleepers every year that nobody else is high on. He's gained no national attention despite playing for NC.

Jeff Teague because... he fills a need, he's (ostensibly) friends with Chris Paul. He gained national attention during Wake Forest's rise to #1.

Ty Lawson because... statistically, he may be the best overall player in the draft. He gained national attention by being the PG of North Carolina.

These seven guys comprise my final list, to be culled down to the best option(s). I think I have pretty good reasons for leaving other guys out, some documented towards the end. Definitely leave comments on other prospects, and we can discuss.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Eric Maynor	6'2"	164	6'2"	31.5	46.3	1.9	5.4	36.1	5.8	7.1	81.5	0.5	3.1	3.6	6.2	3.0	1.7	0.2	2.4	22.4

Draft Express says: 8th best PG in draft
Hollinger says: 21st best player in draft
Points/Possession: 1.17
FTA/Posession: 0.37
Ast/Possession: 0.32
TO/Possession: 0.16
Usage%: 28.6%
eFG%: 52%
TS%: 58%

Most people are viewing Maynor as a point guard in this draft, but there are many shooting guard aspects to his game. While he lacks range (36% from the college three isn't terribly inspiring), he took on a large role of his team's offense, accounting for almost 29% of possessions. His solid floor percentages are more due to shots in the ilk of floaters and runners than jumpers. As his career at VCU unfolded, he became more and more of a scorer. So while his 32% assist rate still seems solid, he posted a 49% rate in his first year as starter. There are many aspects of Jannero Pargo's style of play to Maynor's game; a case could be made that Maynor is Pargo with less range. That in mind, the Hornets' decision on Maynor may very well depend on their plans with Pargo. The earliest they can sign Pargo would be July 11th, more than two weeks after the conclusion of the draft. If Maynor is indeed the pick, the writing may be on the wall for Jannero.

Verdict: Maynor has a solid skill set, but his statistics simply don't compare with two point guards (who both played "purer" points in college) who may still be available. Couple that with questions about his conference, and I don't know. It'd be a solid pick, but one with minimal upside.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Marcus Thornton	6'3"	194	6'5"	33	47.2	2.2	5.7	38.8	4.3	5.7	74.5	2.0	3.5	5.5	2.1	1.8	1.6	0.4	2.1	21.1

Draft Express says: 5th best SG in draft
Hollinger says: Not in Top 31
Points/Possession: 1.24
FTA/Posession: 0.33
Ast/Possession: 0.13
TO/Possession: 0.11
Usage%: 25.0%
eFG%: 54%
TS%: 58%

Southeastern Conference Player of the Year usually doesn't mean much, because the SEC produces 1 or 2 great NBA prospects a year, max. But there's a lot to like with Marcus Thornton. Physically, he's got good tools. The 6'3" measurement is an immediate red flag for a guy that plays exclusively shooting guard, but I love his release on his shot. He gets it off quite surreptitiously, and the 6'5" wingspan aids with that. On top of that, he generally makes the most of his 33 inch vertical in terms of his jumpers- something he has to do, but something a lot of prospects don't make a habit of.

While his 38-39% three point shooting doesn't look other worldly, a lot of those looks did come under heavy pressure. I like his range overall, and I wouldn't be surprised if he could maintain a 35%-40% stroke in the NBA. He isn't the fastest guy in the world, but the Hornets wouldn't be drafting him to be a Jason Terry/Jannero Pargo-like speed option (even though that's Draft Express' comparison). Rather, they'd be drafting him to fill up the scoreboard in a hurry, mostly through sets. Thornton's 1.24 points/possession is an impressive stat indeed; he's a creative scorer. The one odd thing is, though he's more of a scoring threat (efficiency-wise) than Maynor, he used substantially fewer possessions than Maynor. Maybe this will amount to nothing, but his 25% rate is lower than a lot of the top scorers in the NCAA's. It's something of a red flag in terms of how much "volume" he could actually provide as a volume scorer.

The final stat that intrigues me is the 11% turnover rate. As much as he handles the ball, it's very impressive. Observationally, I don't think he has nearly the vision to play point guard though. His low assist rate of 13% back that up, as does his pure point ratio of -1.36 (positive indicating "purer"). So while the turnover rate may come in handy, I don't think it'd help much in terms of him getting point guard minutes. At 6'3", and with his skill set, Thornton would step in as a "pure shooting guard," a position that's disappeared a little bit in recent years, in favor of swingmen and guys that can rotate between the 2 and 3.

Verdict: Like Maynor, there are a lot of "safe" aspects to a Thornton pick. He's a very efficient scorer, he has a well set position, he doesn't turn the ball over. But again, the cost of that safety is minimal upside. Who he is today is likely very similar to who he'll be in three years.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Sam Young	6'6"	223	6'11"	33	50.2	1.6	4.2	37.3	3.2	4.3	74.0	1.9	4.3	6.3	1.1	2.4	1.0	0.8	1.7	19.2

Draft Express says: 3rd best SF in draft
Hollinger says: 52
Points/Possession: 1.17
FTA/Posession: 0.26
Ast/Possession: 0.07
TO/Possession: 0.15
Usage%: 24.4%
eFG%: 55%
TS%: 58%

Sam Young really made a name for himself this year, averaging almost 20 a night for the season, then performing even better in the Tournament. It's interesting how split analysts are on Young. There's one crowd that believes he can step in and contribute minutes to virtually any team in the league at this point. The other viewpoint is that he's an old prospect who may have been vastly overvalued by the 2008-2009 campaign.

Physically, the tools are all there. He's 6'6", athletic, has a very long wingspan at 6'11" and a decent vertical for his size. His frame could easily be more bulked up if that's what a team needs, and he's already at a good weight right now anyways. The problem is, despite the gaudy scoring averages, the underlying statistics give me reason to pause. A 15% turnover rate from a small forward who didn't do too much ball-handling (LeVance Fields was one of the top point guards in the country) is a flag. A 7% assist rate indicates that he virtually never set up teammates for anything. It's a serious flag for a wing player, as even well-reputed ballhogs often create opportunities for their teammates, via double teams. His 26% free throws per possession is more about 10% lower than either Maynor or Thornton. It makes me seriously wonder how he'll adapt to the contact game of the NBA. And if that wasn't enough, his 24.4% usage rate doesn't do much to increase his value.

Looking specifically at the Hornets, Young is a Julian Wright clone in many ways. Similar height, long wingspans, questionable ball control skills. Young clearly has the better stroke and better strange, but would it be worth using the 21st pick to get Julian Wright with a better jump shot (maybe)? And the age issue is not to be overlooked. Young is already 24 years old, way, way older than most other rookies.

Verdict: Very little upside. This is who he'll be in the NBA. His peripheral statistics are somewhat alarming, he's been overhyped a little due to Pitt's run, and he could very well be a redundant player on our roster. I'm taking Maynor and Thornton over him.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Austin Daye	6'11"	192	7'3"	28	47.7	1.1	2.5	42.9	2.3	3.2	70.6	1.1	5.8	6.8	1.1	2.1	0.7	2.1	2.9	12.7

Draft Express says: 2nd best SF in draft
Hollinger says: 4th best Player in draft
Points/Possession: 1.09
FTA/Posession: 0.28
Ast/Possession: 0.09
TO/Possession: 0.18
Usage%: 16.8%
eFG%: 53%
TS%: 56%

After a freshman campaign that left Zags fans drooling, Daye's game took something of a dive this year. His points/possession went down, his assist rate went down, his turnover rate stayed poor, he drew fewer fouls. Of course, analysts are all mostly in love with the guy now. Go figure.

Statistically, Daye leaves much to be desired. His points/possession of 1.09 is far lower than any of the other guys on this list; he was simply not very efficient on offense. For his size, he doesn't get to the line very often (more than Young, but less than either Maynor or Thornton). He showed zero ability as a passing big man, averaging 9 assists every 100 possessions. Unfortunately, he did turn the ball over a ton, almost double as often as he assisted on baskets. His usage rate was quite low, as Gonzaga relied on a variety of other players to make their Tournament run.

As you might have guessed, there's a large school of people that feel statistics won't tell the whole story on Daye. I am one of those people. As poor as his stats have been, the guy is 6'11" with small forward skills. He has a 7'3" wingspan. He has a standing reach of over nine feet. Add in a 28 inch vertical, and Daye's hands will be somewhere around eleven feet and a half in the air when he jumps. His pace-adjusted block statistics aren't noteworthy, but from the four or five times I've seen him play, I've found him to be more of a "Tyson Chandler shot blocker"- he'll challenge and alter a lot more shots than the box score credits him for.

On top of that, he has range. NBA range. He shot 41.3% from three last year and 42.9% from three this year. In two years, he's averaged taking around 4 threes per game. He can shoot off the dribble, has good ball handling skills for his size, can create shots, has excellent coordination, and though is a terrible offensive rebounder, he's as good a defensive rebounder as Greg Oden and Paul Millsap were in college. He turned 21 a couple weeks ago. Does he have flaws? Absolutely. But if Daye could pass and score more efficiently, he'd be a lottery pick. Those two issues mean he's almost guaranteed to be available at 21. I'd take Thornton over him probably, but if Pargo is in our future plans, I'd take him over Maynor. Over Young, I'd take him without thinking.

Verdict: Major, major, major upside. Major crash and burn potential. The clincher for me is that John Hollinger's draft analyzer loves him. Every year, it pinpoints a couple guys that could vastly outperform their stock, and Daye looks like the pick this year. He doesn't fit an immediate need, but I wouldn't be terribly depressed if he was the pick.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Danny Green	6'5"	208	6'10"	33	47.1	2.0	4.7	43.0	1.4	1.6	85.2	1.8	2.8	4.7	2.7	1.7	1.8	1.3	2.2	13.1

Draft Express says: 9th best SF in draft
Hollinger says: 8th best Player in draft
Points/Possession: 1.20
FTA/Posession: 0.15
Ast/Possession: 0.25
TO/Possession: 0.15
Usage%: 14.3%
eFG%: 57%
TS%: 59%

This is another one of Hollinger's favorites, the only reason he's on this list. I figure if I included Hollinger's take on Daye, I had to include Green. However, I don't agree with Hollinger that Green is going to be great. The Draft Rater has him as the 3rd best wing, behind Tyreke Evans and Daye.

His efficiency numbers are all excellent, but the reason behind it is very clear- he's primarily a shooter, a very good shooter. The majority of his looks come on jumpers, often set up by his very good teammates at North Carolina. He doesn't draw fouls, and based on my observations of him, he probably won't be making many contact filled forays to the hole in the NBA. Another factor is his low usage rate of 14.3%. Essentially, Green was a very good role player at the college level. That simply isn't the player the Hornets should be targeting in this draft. Green could end up being a very good fit for a team looking to add depth (Utah? L.A.?), but he doesn't have the off-the-dribble ability of Maynor/Thornton, or the superstar potential of Daye.

Verdict: I'd take him 7th among the 7 players on this list.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Jeff Teague	6'0"	175	6'8"	37	48.5	1.5	3.3	44.1	5.8	7.1	81.4	0.5	2.8	3.3	3.5	3.4	1.9	0.6	2.2	18.9

Draft Express says: 4th best SG in draft
Hollinger says: 14th best Player in draft
Points/Possession: 1.15
FTA/Posession: 0.43 (!!!!)
Ast/Possession: 0.22
TO/Possession: 0.20
Usage%: 21.9%
eFG%: 55%
TS%: 62%

A 6 foot point guard, weighing 175 pounds, with a 38 inch vertical, a lane agility of 11.1, and a 3 quarter court sprint time of 3.2 seconds, hailing from Wake Forest University. Even if Jeff Teague was absolutely terrible, Hornets fans would've stood up and taken notice, because those were exactly the draft measurements of one Chris Paul. But Teague doesn't suck at all- far from it. According to the latest estimations, it's unlikely he falls to 21, but it's worth going over him anyway to see where he should be on our draft board.

A lot of places have Teague listed as a shooting guard, and for good reason. In two years, he posted pure point ratios of -3.04 and -3.17. He posted the measley assist rates of 19% and 22% while posting 79% and 73% FGA/possession. He's decidedly a shoot first guard, to an extreme relative to the college level. His turnover levels were 19% and 20% (better than Chris Paul in college for what it's worth). But he doesn't carry nearly the assist:turnover ratio Paul did.

In essence, Teague played shooting guard from the point guard position, inflating his PG stats tremendously. That doesn't mean he can't score at all. He certainly has some great tools. He shot 44% from three last year, displaying good range. His most promising statistic is 43% FTA/possession. That's not just promising; it's amazing. The ability to get to the free throw line is a great indicator of NBA success for college players (it's probably the definitive statistic that set Chris Paul way apart from Deron Williams in college).

So I'm not saying Teague is all hype. What I am contending is that he isn't too much of a "combo" guard like many reports suggest. I think he lacks the point guard element of the combo guard to enough of an extent that he'd struggle if played at PG without another PG on the floor. In the long run, that means he won't be an Antonio Daniels replacement. Is it worth using a draft pick on that?

Verdict: He's a legitimate scorer. If we're drafting for a combo guard, Maynor is the better option. If we're drafting for a creative scorer at the 2, Teague is a better option than Thornton, but Thornton's 3 inch advantage on Teague makes me think he'd be more successful at getting minutes and translating his game to the NBA. Overall, there's only a 1% chance we'd need to make a decision on Teague, since one of the 20 preceding teams is guaranteed to be tricked into thinking he's a full time point guard.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Ty Lawson	6'0"	197	6'1"	37	53.2	1.5	3.1	47.2	4.7	5.9	79.8	0.7	2.3	3.0	6.6	1.9	2.1	0.1	1.7	16.6

Draft Express says: 7th best PG in draft
Hollinger says: 1st best Player in draft (!!!!)
Points/Possession: 1.30 (!!!!)
FTA/Posession: 0.47 (!!!!)(!!!!)
Ast/Possession: 0.51
TO/Possession: 0.15
Usage%: 16.8%
eFG%: 61% (!!!!)
TS%: 66%

Take note of all those exclamations. Ty Lawson posted some truly off the wall statistics in 2008-2009. The contention is that there was some tremendous statistical inflation going on due to North Carolina's ridiculously fast system. But a closer look shows that Lawson actually was very, very good.

Let's start with something nobody is questioning: Lawson's shot. He has maybe the best range of any guard prospect, shooting a wacky 47% from three this year. If his three point shot doesn't translate to the NBA level, I will be absolutely stunned. Nothing's a guarantee obviously, but this is as close as it gets. I love his form, and the way he gets into position off a dribble. On top of his long range abilities, Lawson is also one of the top finishers in college basketball. So his very high eFG% is not only a reflection of his deep ball talent, but also of his skill close to the hoop. And nobody's questioning his ability to draw contact. His 47% FTA/possession rate is simply amazing, and as much as you want to talk about system inflation, it certainly points to some serious underlying talent.

The one statistic I accept may be somewhat inflated is the assist ratio. Lawson averaged a 51% rate last year (actually down from his freshman rate of 59%). Pace adjusting can simply level the possession playing field, but it can't take into account the fact that Lawson absolutely dominated the fast break. There certainly wasn't a better fast break field general in America. Will he get that many fast break opportunities in the NBA? Obviously not. The defenders are more athletic, will get back faster, and will cut off passing lanes with ease. But to point out only the inflation of assists and to ignore the turnover rate is a serious error. Lawson's 15% turnover rate, in a fast break environment requiring rapid decision making, is yet another impressive attribute.

At best, Lawson could be one of the most talented point guard prospects in a long while. At worst, his assist numbers are somewhat inflated, and he's not as good a passer as people thought. So? The shot is for real. The decision making is for real. His driving ability is real. His defense is real.

Verdict: I know I said yesterday that I'd take DeJuan Blair over any guard/wing prospects... but I don't know. If he's available, I'd take Lawson in a heartbeat out of these 7.

Who Didn't Make This List?

Chase Budinger: Great stats, but workouts have revealed that he'd much rather stand and shoot than drive and force the action. A stand-still shooter with questionable defense is the last thing the Hornets should look to add this summer.

Terrence Williams: He's primarily a defensive stopper with highly questionable offensive skills and the inability to create a shot (though he is an awesome passer). With Posey and Wright aboard, that seems redundant.

Jodie Meeks: Meeks is a terrific, undervalued scorer. I think apprehensions about his lack of athleticism will prove misguided because he has amazing range, took on a huge scoring responsibility with ease, drew a lot of fouls, and was one of the most efficient scorers in the country. But I don't think his stock is high enough for the Hornets to even think about taking him at 21. Is that undeserved? Absolutely. That's just how the draft goes some times.

Tyler Hansbrough: Very poor rebounding numbers. As much as his "toughness" has been touted, I (and the numbers) simply don't see it. See yesterday's Blair or Bust post if you're not convinced.

So Who's the Pick?

I'd put the board in this order:

DeJuan Blair
Ty Lawson
Marcus Thornton
Eric Maynor
Austin Daye
Jeff Teague
Jodie Meeks
Sam Young
Chase Budinger
Danny Green

Blair and Lawson have to be considered nearly equivalent in terms of talent, but the larger need at frontcourt puts Blair over the top. Whether or not Pargo comes back could really influence things too. If Pargo is in the Hornets' plans (as in, they know for sure they'll sign him on July 11th), I would push Daye over Maynor for sure. I've got Teague only at 6 because I consider Maynor a better version of him, more or less. Teague showed terrific scoring skills in college, but at 6'0", he won't have nearly the same scoring role or chances in the NBA. Basically, his most valuable skill set will be underutilized, and Maynor's previously shown passing ability will be given more opportunity to resurface in the NBA. So Maynor is the better combo guard in my eyes. If Blair, Lawson, Thornton, and Daye are off the board by #21, that's when I'd consider trading the pick. That would seem to be the line at which the pick ceases to have too much value to the Hornets, but could still be valuable for other teams.

If we get #1 or 2 on that list, I'll be extraordinarily happy. #3 through 6 would evoke a sound "meh" although Austin Daye is intriguing. #7 and below or any non-Blair big men could be filed into the Summer of 2008 disaster cabinet. This will truly be a difficult draft to navigate.

Danny Green and Wayne Ellington in Portland

T.H. — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 03:34:56 -0000

Wayne Ellington and Danny Green were in Portland showing off their skills for the Trailblazers, and Oregon Live has interviews with both:

Bobcats Pre-draft Workout Video: Stephen Curry, Danny Green, Gerald Henderson

David Arnott — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 00:35:58 -0000

There really isn't much to see in the last fifteen minutes of an NBA team's pre-draft workout. Thursday morning, I went to the Bobcats' workout with Stephen Curry, Toney Douglas, Danny Green, Gerald Henderson, KC Rivers, and Garrett Temple. As you can tell from the video below, which I shot for The Baseline, figuring out which 20-year-old is going to be a pillar of your franchise for the next decade from having them run back and forth and shooting with no defense seems like a futile exercise.

Sure, there are identifiable differences between the players. Watch Curry in the video. You won't see him miss a shot, because he didn't miss any. I can really tell from the video is that Toney Douglas is nowhere near the caliber of shooter as Stephen Curry, which you can see from the segments where they shoot side by side. We didn't get to see any of the defensive drills, and even if we had, what good does a defensive drill do if you don't have a five on five situation to work with?

A single workout is such a small sliver of performance that we can't really tell anything meaningful. Even if Curry picked up Larry Brown's instructions more quickly than anyone else, so what? NBA players have all the time in the world to devote to the game, and if one guy doesn't learn as fast as another in a "classroom" setting, that doesn't necessarily mean that the bar is lower for what can be expected of him. It's just that he'll have to work longer hours, and he might actually be capable of doing more.

In any event, enjoy the video, because it has footage of Curry showing that, in a confined and controlled practice environment, he's an extremely impressive NBA prospect. After the action footage, stick around for clips from the post-workout interview scrums.

UNC 83, Villanova 69

T.H. — Sun, 05 Apr 2009 03:54:47 -0000

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The entire game, it seemed like there were two Carolina teams flickering in and out of focus, like two TV channels overlapping on the same band. There was the team from the previous tournament games, where Ty Lawson sliced through defenders at will, and Wayne Ellington dropped threes at will, going 5 for 7 behind the arc on his way 20 points. And then there was the other Carolina team, that popped their heads up earlier in the season. The one frustrated by Villanova's defense descending on the big men in the paint. The team that gave up an obscene number of offensive rebounds to a smaller team (19, and only that low because the Heels finally got it under control late), that went through scoring droughts and could never put an opponent away. I'd hoped to never see that team again this year.

What I never saw, however, was the teams of years past, that came into a Final Four game against Kansas half-asleep and never recovered, or panicked in the waning minutes of a game against Georgetown. The upperclassmen leadership on this team is phenomenal; Wayne Elington and Bobby Frasor (7 rebounds, 5 offensive in 19 minutes) were all over the court scooping up loose balls knocked free from freshmen hands by the Wildcat defense. Ty Lawson ran the floor like he was oblivious to the influx of hands slapping at the ball in two or threes; he only had four turnovers. As bad as the second half got at times - UNC shot 9 for 29, Nova 10 for 38 - the Wildcats were never able to cut the lead closer than five, a margin quickly doubled by Danny Green and Ty Lawson. This team is working together like a well-oiled machine, even when the shots don't fall. There's no doubt, no fear, and no chance of letting Michigan State upset them. Sportswriters will kvetch about the lack of surprise, the absence of drama, the sheer inevitability of it all; let them. This is a beautiful thing to watch finally come together, and I plan to enjoy it.

(They could make a few more free throws, though.)

Can Villanova Shut Down UNC's Perimeter Game?

T.H. — Thu, 02 Apr 2009 23:09:09 -0000

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A lot of UNC-Villanova previews have focused on the Wildcats' perimeter defense, often in terms like this:

During the tournament, the Wildcats have been switching on every screen and have held outstanding shooters to near-season lows, including Jrue Holiday to 1-for-6, Gerald Henderson to 1-for-14, Jon Scheyer to 3-for-18, and Levance Fields to 2-for-8.

The run-and-gun offense may be a lot of fun for fans to watch, but it's defense that's going to get 'Nova to the championship.

And it's true, Villanova's been great at disrupting opposing guards diring the tournament, and not half-bad over the season, holding opponents to 33.2% from behind the arc. As someone who has many memories of Final Four trips ruined by oor perimeter shooting (c.f. 1995, 1997, 1998...), I have to wonder, are Lawson, Ellington, Green doomed to the same fate?

I don't think so, for a couple of reasons. One, the fact that it's Lawson, Ellington, and Green. Three solid shoots are tough to guard on the outside, and for all of Nova's defensive prowess listed above, Sam Young went 3-7 for Pitt and Nikola Dragovic 3-6 for UCLA. Villanova has trouble with long guard/forward types, a profile Danny Green fits to a T. If he keeps his hot hand from the weekend, he'll be very hard to stop.

Secondly, UNC typically generates three point opportunities differently from Pitt and Duke. Instead of the perimeter screen (think every play J.J. Redick ran for four years) Carolina prefers to kick it outside from a big man. If you first require the defense to collapse on Hansbrough, Thompson, or a driving Ty Lawson, it's much tougher for them to defend the subsequent three point attempt. Villanova is built like Duke, and in two games against the Blue Devils UNC was 6-12 and 6-15 from long distance.

My third reservation is the curious fact that this defense for the Wildcats is a recent thing. I mentioned earlier that they held their opponents to a respectable 33.2% shooting, but what I didn't throw out is that Villanova is 339th in three point attempts per field goal attempts against - no major school in the country had more threes launched against them. So either the entire Big East was very, very confused, or most folks playing Villanova thought the long ball had a decent chance of working. Only twice did an opponent launch less than 14 threes, while UNC has taken that many shots or fewer a good dozen times (All wins.) This isn't the type of team Villanova sees very often, and they'll have a much harder time than they're expecting.

Lunchtime Links 3/31

MRickman84 — Tue, 31 Mar 2009 17:23:14 -0000

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Happy Tuesday everyone. If you haven't checked it out already, check out the videos on the 2010 and the 2011-12 recruits. Onto the links!

Florida assistant Shaka Smart has accepted the VCU job. That means Jeff Battle will be staying.

The All-America teams were released. Jeff Teague is an honorable mention.

Chris Mannix says that Steph Curry isn't ready for the NBA and that Wake's big three hurt their draft stock.

Washington State Head Coach Tony Bennett is heading to the UVA job. Keep an eye out for BSD's response to Bennett taking the job, seeing as Wake does run Bennett's pack-it-in defense.

The Raiders are going to Wake's facilities to check out Alphonso Smith and Chip Vaughn.

Brett Friedlander says that winning the championship is not as important as improving draft stock for UNC players like Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson and Danny Green.

Interesting article about Clemson WR Rendrick Taylor from upstatetoday.com

Jim Grobe ranked number one among ACC Coaches by Tom Dienhart.

Better Than OK: UNC 72, Oklahoma 60

T.H. — Mon, 30 Mar 2009 02:12:05 -0000

You knew all along the Griffin-Hansbrough matchup wasn't the story, right?

Well, it wasn't. Hansbrough spent most of the first half on the bench, and much of his playing time kicking the ball out to the perimeter on offense and being merely half of a double-team on Griffin the rest of the time, but the end result got UNC to the Final Four and Oklahoma a quick trip home.

It was a strange game for both teams, each of whom was used to getting rebounds at will. Offensive rebounds were almost impossible to come by, and offensive sets were easily disrupted. UNC clogged the Sooner passing lanes, netting nine steals, and tied up Griffin on offense enough to force the rest of the Oklahoma team to perform. And with a Final Four on the line, the failed spectacularly, missing their first fifteen three-pointers. The Sooner defense could slow but not stop the Tar Heels, as Danny Green slipped through for 18 points while Lawson sliced and diced his way to 19. Carolina took an early lead, and just like the two Duke games this season, maintained it in a slow, deliberate way. It wasn't particularly gripping to watch, and it won't go down in history, but it got the job done, got the opponent of their game, and got the Heels to Detroit. You can't ask for much more than that.

SB Nation - Danny Green

Ask The Enemy: Texas vs North Carolina

BtB 2009-10 ACC Preview

Atlantic Coast Conference Standings

Preseason All-ACC Team

Who is your pick to win the ACC this season?

Boston College

Clemson

Duke

Florida State

Georgia Tech

Maryland

Miami

North Carolina

NC State

Virginia

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

And Danny Green Heads to Cleveland

With the 21st Pick...

The Candidates

2008 - Eric Maynor

2008 - Marcus Thornton

2008 - Sam Young

2008 - Austin Daye

2008 - Danny Green

2008 - Jeff Teague

2008 - Ty Lawson

Who Didn't Make This List?

So Who's the Pick?

Danny Green and Wayne Ellington in Portland

Bobcats Pre-draft Workout Video: Stephen Curry, Danny Green, Gerald Henderson

UNC 83, Villanova 69

Can Villanova Shut Down UNC's Perimeter Game?

Lunchtime Links 3/31

Better Than OK: UNC 72, Oklahoma 60