SB Nation - Henry Dugat

Preview: Baylor at Texas

awiggo — Mon, 02 Mar 2009 15:00:10 -0000

Next Game

Monday, Mar 2, 2009, 8:00 PM CST
Frank Erwin Center * Austin, TX
Television: ESPN
Radio: 98.1 FM / 1300 AM (Austin)

Las Vegas Line: Texas -9
KenPom Data Prediction: Texas, 75-68

Other Previews:
TexasSports.com / BaylorBears.CSTV.com

First Season Meeting: Texas W, 78-72
Preview / Recap

Complete Coverage >

SEASON COMPARISON

	Baylor	Texas		Baylor	Texas
Overall Record	17-11	19-9	Offensive Efficiency (Rank)	114.3 (20)	110.3 (52)
Conference Record	5-9	8-6	Defensive Efficiency (Rank)	99.3 (136)	91.3 (27)
Home Record	13-4	12-2	Strength of Schedule Rank	#36	#27
Away / Neutral Record	2-6 / 2-1	4-5 / 3-2	Quality Wins (KenPom Top 50)	Arizona St at Wash State Ok State at Kansas St Texas A&M	UCLA n-Villanova at Wisconsin Texas A&M Okla St Oklahoma
Record Last 5 and 10 Games	2-3 / 2-8	3-2 / 5-5	Losses	n-Wake Forest South Carolina at A&M at OU Texas at Missouri Kansas at Texas Tech OU at Ok State at Iowa St	n-Notre Dame n-Michigan St at Arkansas at Oklahoma Kansas St Missouri at Nebraska at Texas A&M at Ok State

Stakes and Keys to the Game after the jump.

THE STAKES

Simply put, this is a must win game for the Longhorns. With Texas closing the season at Kansas this weekend, a loss tonight would probably fate the Longhorns to an end-of-season three game losing streak. While the non-conference wins over UCLA and Villanova are still jewels in the ‘Horns’ resume, Texas doesn’t not want to see if the Committee values those over a .500 conference record and a late season slide. Texas also does not want to be playing in the Big XII tournament for their NCAA tournament lives.

A win would also assure the Longhorns of a 20-win season, their tenth straight over Rick Barnes. Last, Texas has won 23 straight over Baylor, including a 78-72 win in Waco in late January.

The Bears come staggering into Austin. Baylor did defeat Colorado at home over the weekend but had dropped eight of their previous nine games. During that slide, the Bears quickly went from a likely NCAA tournament team to a team just hoping for an NIT invite. Baylor is also just 1-6 in conference road games this season.

For Baylor, this game is about pride and saving face. The Bears have been close to knocking off the Longhorns multiple times in the last couple of seasons but have never pulled it off. A win over the Longhorns would be especially sweet for Del Valle native and senior guard, Curtis Jerrells, who seems to always play well against the ‘Horns. Although this season was supposed to achieve so much more, Scott Drew’s club could definitely make a loud end-of-year statement by winning in Austin.

Ken Pomeroy

Pomeroy’s stats show the Bears to be a similar team to the Oklahoma State Cowboys. Both like to score in transition and rely heavily on the three-pointer for points; both have three or four guards in their starting lineup and struggle on the offensive glass; and both have had trouble this year getting stops, particularly in conference play.

The Baylor defense is so bad that it requires an above average shooting night to produce a victory. Take a look at the Baylor game plan. Baylor is 5-0 in conference when their effective field goal percentage is over 50% and 0-9 when their eFG % is under 50%. Basically, when Baylor is shooting well, they have a chance to outscore their opponents, and when they are not, their porous defense dooms them to a loss.

I’m not sure if the similarities between the two teams bode well for the Longhorns considering Texas scored just 18 points in the first half and needed a significant second half rally to get back into the game. However, Texas should be comfortable with the style of play and should have no trouble recognizing the keys to the game.

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Find three-point shooters in the half court. This is a game where the Texas guards must remember scouting reports. All the Baylor Bears are going to act like they are three point shooters—some Texas should invite to shoot the three, while others must be run at immediately and made to put the ball on the deck. The two guys Texas cannot allow catch-and-shoot open threes are LaceDarius Dunn (39% from three) and Tweety Carter (43%). Both Dunn and Carter have more made three-pointers than they do two point buckets. The two guys Texas can allow to shoot threes are Curtis Jerrells and Henry Dugat. While both players can definitely knock down the long jumpers, they are more dangerous when collapsing a defense off the bounce and scoring in the lane and at the line.

2. Limit Baylor’s transition opportunities. In the first game between these two teams, Texas held Baylor in check for the first twenty minutes and led at the half 27-24. It was certainly not an offensive show by either team as both defenses forced perimeter jumpers and limited easy looks in transition. The second half was a different story, however. Turnovers led to easy run out opportunities for both teams and scoring increased dramatically. As mentioned above, Baylor wins when they shoot the ball well, and lose when they don’t. Although the Bears may be gifted outside shooters, they really punish their opposition when they get out in transition and score easy points. Texas needs to do two things to limit the Baylor fast break offense. 1) Protect the ball. Since the insertion of Dogus Balbay into the starting lineup, this hasn’t been a problem. Actually, Texas is among the nation’s leaders in turnover percentage on the season, so this shouldn’t be too much of an issue. 2) Get back. There isn’t an easier way to say this. Texas must commit a guard, usually Balbay, to defending the bucket when a shot goes up. Earlier this season, with Mason at the point, Texas got into trouble when Justin would compete on the offensive glass instead of retreat on defense. This happens occasionally with Dogus as well but the other problem is when Balbay attacks the basket off the dribble. AJ must be aware when this happens and hustle back, regardless if he starts his retreat from the offensive baseline.

3. Attack the rim, get to the foul line, and make defenses pay for playing off the Texas guards, save AJ. Texas did the opposite of those three things in the first half in Stillwater and scored just 18 points. We shot 24% from the field, didn’t attempt a single free throw, and let Terrel Harris double team the post when Balbay still had the ball in his hands. Texas, and particularly Balbay, got better in the second half. Dogus made the defenses react by taking the ball into the lane; Texas tried to feed the post from the hands of shooters like AJ Abrams and Harrison Smith; and aggression by Damion James and Dexter Pittman was rewarded by trips to the free throw line. It shouldn’t take 20 minutes to adjust to a sagging defense. If it does and Baylor is hot, then it could be a long night for this offensively limited bunch.

4. Feed the post—Dexter Pittman, Gary Johnson, Clint Chapman, and Damion James. This is obviously not easy when the post is being double teamed without the ball. However, Texas still needs to make a conscious effort to play inside-out on offense. I pray that Gary Johnson is able to go tonight, as his presence alone makes defenses play more honest. But even if he isn’t, dropping the ball to Dexter or Chap on the low block will help free up shooters and cutters. Simply pounding the ball at the top of the key will not.

This is a big one Horns’ fans. Come out to the Erwin Center tonight on Senior Night for AJ Abrams and Connor Atchley. It is likely the final home game for junior Damion James as well.

A KenPom Preview: Baylor

rockchalk — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 00:48:52 -0000

OK, this is going to have to be ridiculously quick. We have to get this done in, like, 45 minutes, so, yeah. Speed-typing, engage.

Opening Thoughts

The game we've all been waiting for since conference play began. The goal, by-and-large, was to get to 6-0 going into Waco. This has been accomplished. That's over, done with. Now, we get the game that people have been assuming to be an L for awhile. That's always nice; to go into a game where you expected a L in the preseason. This presents us an opportunity to pick up a game, as it were. It's especially awesome when you go into an expected loss kind of game where you know you have a really good shot at winning.

And no matter how you slice it, we really could win this game. I promise. I mean, KenPom predicts it to be a one-point game (77-76), giving Baylor a 51% chance to win, and Kansas a 49% chance. That is about as close as it gets to a 50/50 toss-up. That's just how it is.

I can't wait.

Some quick, but in-depth, thoughts after the jump...

The Background

Coming into the year, Baylor was fully expected to make a return trip back to the NCAA Tournament. They returned nearly everyone important from last year's squad, and were picked by some to even win the Big 12. They started off the season well, getting to the finals of the absolutely-loaded 76 Classic out here in Anaheim. By getting to the Championship game, they offed better-than-expected Providence and potential-Pac 10-Champion (although, they've struggled a bunch in conference play) Arizona State. After a narrow loss to Wake Forest (yes, that Wake Forest), they won on the road, in Pullman, against Washington State. All of these are big positives, things that will help them a whole lot come Selection Sunday. However, the rest of their non-conference schedule was filled with fluff, except for a home game against South Carolina, which they lost. Now, while the Gamecocks' recent surge to the top of the SEC East Standings makes the loss look more forgivable, it isn't all that good of a loss.

And since conference play started, they've struggled big-time. They opened up conference play with a win against Tech, then went on the road to College Station and lost. They then beat two pretty solid teams in Oklahoma State (at home) and Kansas State (on the road) to seemingly right the ship. However, since then, they've been a bad team, losing three in a row. Now, those losses were @ Oklahoma, vs. Texas and @ Missouri, but three straight losses is three straight losses. All of that essentially makes this game tonight a must-win of sorts for the Bears; their non-conference resume is looking a little less solid with the dropoffs of Wazzu and ASU, and they have to win at least 9 in Big 12 play to make it. These are the type of game that they really, really need to win. This game is huge for them; ginormous.

The Offense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (17th) -- This is, easily, the best aspect of the Bears' offense. This is how they score a shitload of points, and how they win games. They make both threes and twos incredibly proficiently (36th and 25th, respectively), and are dangerous from anywhere on the floor. The key will be limiting their open looks, hoping this causes them to miss more shots than usual. If they aren't hitting their shots, they are very, very beatable. If they're on fire, they could beat just about anyone in the country.
Turnover % (70th) -- They don't turn the ball over a bunch, but they aren't like A&M, either. They are playmakers, after all, and playmakers tend to turn the ball over on occasion. If we can force a bunch of turnovers, that could only help us, but it isn't an incredible key, either.
Offensive Rebounding % (136th) -- No Nebraska, but the Bears don't get a whole lot of second chances on offense. With only two real threats on the offensive glass (Kevin Rogers and Quincy Acy), it isn't terribly difficult to focus on them and box them out. The key, like always, will be simply sticking a body on them and getting inside position. The Morris twins have improved a bunch over the past few games at this; let's see how they do it against legitimate, All-Big 12-caliber athletes.
FTA/FGA (48th) -- They do get to the line, a whole bunch. Particularly driving extroadniaire, Curtis Jerrells, but really, everyone on the team can draw fouls at a reasonable level. They aren't Xavier, or anything, shooting nearly as many freebies as field goals, but they still are well familiar with the charity stripe.

Miscellaneous

Beyond the really good field goal percentages, there are a couple other nuggets of note. One is that, despite merely a 'good' turnover %, they never, ever get the ball stolen from them. So, yeah, they'll turn the ball over, but it usually isn't on steals. Secondly, they aren't a good free throw shooting team. They get to the line quite a bit, but only shoot 68% there as a team. Nothing special.

The Defense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (129th) -- You'll see that type of ranking a bunch with the Bears. Lots of mediocre (for power conference teams, at least), well-below-average numbers, but nothing outstandingly poor. They are just, around the board, a poor defensive team. Not a terrible one, maybe not even a bad one, per se, just a below-average, poor, mediocre D.
Turnover % (146th) -- See what I mean? They don't turn you over all that much, so the key will be no stupid mistakes. It's one thing to turn the ball over 20+ times against Nebraska; a team that forces so many turnovers, it's almost acceptable. That's who they are as a defensive team, so if they turn you over a bunch, it's somewhat defensible. But, if you turn the ball over a bunch because you simply can't take care of the ball against a D that isn't terribly proficient at turning you over, and you are in big trouble. Big, big trouble.
Offensive Rebounding % (214th) -- You know how I said none of their defensive statistics stood out as particularly bad? Well, I was kind of wrong. Their OR% rate is quite awful, and we should have plenty of opportunities to pick up second chance points. Morris twins, I'm looking at you. You've done an excellent job these past two games against abnormally small teams at going up and grabbing the freakin' ball. Let's see if you can do it against a more athletic, more talented, taller Baylor frontline.
FTA/FGA (146th) -- Aaand, back to the simply mediocre stats. They'll foul you some, they'll let you shoot the freebies, some, but nothing extravagant. Just same old, same old. I don't think we'll do anything differently in this sense; just continue to have Sherron and Tyshawn (if he's 'on', at least) drive the lane and either kick or continue in and draw fouls, or whatever.

Miscellaneous

They are particularly poor at allowing the three (184th in the country), so we'll get to that in a second. That is about all that is relevant, however.

The Players

Curtis Jerrells G -- The Bears' best player, Jerrells is a slasher extroadinaire. He loves driving to the ball, he loves attacking the rim and drawing contact. Like I said, he gets the foul line a whole hell of a lot. And he'll shoot the three some, too (93 attempts on the year, second on the team), but his main game is to drive and get fouled.

Henry Dugat G -- Dugat is the defensive specialist on the Bears; the guy that will most likely be the one assigned to guard Sherron Collins. Good luck. But seroiusly, that is his main purpose to the team; the best defender on an overall porous defensive ball club. Offensively, he is also a driver, although he can spot up and shoot the rock from the outside, too.

Tweety Carter G -- Tweety is, statistically, the best offensive player on the team, at least in terms of Offensive Rating. He rarely turns the ball over, which is nice, and loves shooting the three. Not as much as the soon-to-be-mentioned LaceDarius Dunn, but still; Carter likes the long ball.

Quincy Acy F -- A freshman, Acy is their dirty-work player, of sorts. He is, by a very large margin, the best rebounder on the team; particularly defensive. He isn't much of a scorer, only has taken 14% of the team's shots, and is entirely confined to the interior, he's taken 0 threes on the year. However, he serves his purpose on the Bears as the dude who gets rebounds so the Mickey D's All-Americans can score the points. He also is a very good rejecter of shots.

Kevin Rogers F -- Rogers, honestly, is probably the Bears' most gifted player. He is, actually, better on the offensive glass than Acy, and is, really, their only scorer on the inside.

Lacedarius Dunn G -- Lacedarius, besides having an incredibly awesome name (I always like creativity in names, as long as it's within reason), is probably the best three-point specialist in the Big 12. Hell, he might be the best this side of Kyle McAlarney in the entire country. He doesn't do much besides shoot the trey, but he's shot 154 of them on the season; making 42% of them. That is just ridiculous. And he isn't entirely immune to the two-pointer; he's taken 72 of them. But don't get mistaken; Lacedarius likes standing behind the 20'9" line. He isn't afraid in the least to shoot, either; he's taken 30% of Baylor's shots on the year, the 114th highest percentage in the country. For reference, Sherron has only taken 29.3% of our shots so far this season. So, yeah, damn. However, despite all of that shooting, he is still easily the best shooter on the team according to eFG%; the 56th best in the country. The key to the game is shutting down Lacedarius.

The Keys

Limit Open Threes -- The key to this game is to force them to take contested, hand-in-their-face three-pointers. They'll still take the shots, sure; particularly that one Lacedarius fool. But if they're contested, they won't make as many. And when they aren't hitting as many threes, their offense isn't nearly as good. They are then left with, pretty much, just Curtis Jerrells driving and Kevin Rogers on the interior. Still a damn good offense, really, and they could still put up 80 on us. But, not quite the 8th best offense in the country.
Limit Your Turnovers -- This is huge. They don't turn you over a whole bunch usually, so if they do, their defense is exponentially better. No, seriously, like exponentially. If we can't hold on to the ball, we are in for a treat. In a bad way, though. A really, really bad treat.
Second Chance Points -- We'll get more into this in a second in the KenPom Preview's newest feature, but if we can get free points off the offensive glass, we could win this game by a bunch. Their D is pretty bad, and we'll score quite a bit on them regardless. But, if we can get free points by simply outhustling the Bears on the glass, we could conceivably score every time down. Obviously, that's ridiculous, but it is theoretically possible. Really.

Who to Watch For

Baylor - Lacedarius Dunn (G) -- If he goes off, like he did against K-State (9-12 from three), we could be in for a long night. Thank goodness for us, we have this one dude named Brady Morningstar to shadow him across the entire court. Still, even with Brady, the dude's a shooter, and if he goes off, we're in big trouble. Particularly if we are spending Brady's incredible defensive talents on him, and he's still hitting his shot. Brady, please cover him really well. Thanks.

Kansas - Morris Twins (Fs) -- Really, I created this feature to talk about Markieff and Marcus. They've got a big game in them, and I think this is when it's going to burst out of them. They've both played damn-near-awesome in the past two games; now is the time for them to show up that well against a really good opponent. And, being the huge fan of them that I am, I say they show up in a big way. They get a bunch of extra layups off of second chance points, pickup a shitload of rebounds in general, and stay out of foul trouble for the most part. They even limit their stupid turnovers, and make a couple of nice shots. And even make their free throws.

I'll go with a combined line of: 19 points, 14 rebounds, 2 blocks, 4 assists, 3 turnovers, 3 fouls.

Victory is ours, if that last little line happens. I promise.

I know this is late, but hopefully you read it. I'm really pleased with how it came out.

OGT in about 10...

Final thoughts on Baylor

Nuss — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 23:25:23 -0000

via d.yimg.com

Before we turn our sights squarely to Gonzaga, I just want to put a little bit of a bow on the Baylor game with some final thoughts.

First off, as I think Grady detailed well, there are many more positives to take from this game than negatives. The Cougs were right there with Baylor, blow for blow, against a team that clearly wanted this one badly. They were a few missed layups and a handful of missed free throws away from beating the No. 24 team at home. As it was, they might have forced overtime if it weren't for two circus shots by Henry Dugat.

I point that out not to raise your frustration level all over again -- and trust me, nobody was more frustrated than me; just ask my wife who had to try and catch up with me as I stalked out of the bar with 18 seconds to go -- but to show you just what it was that separated WSU from a good, deep, experienced Baylor on Saturday: Correctable mistakes that aren't likely to be repeated.

Do we wish that Baylor hadn't been allowed to post a ridiculous 62.5 FTR? Sure. But the Bears have gotten to the line on everyone they've played. (By the way, that FTR drops to a bit more palatable 52.5 when you take away those four intentional free throws at the end.) Do we wish that DeAngelo Casto wasn't, to borrow a phrase Jo-Jo texted me on Saturday, "allergic to points?" Yup. But he's not going to miss those close shots every night. Do we wish we could make a few more free throws? Absolutely. But we were shooting 73 percent before Saturday night's abysmal 63.2 percent.

The best thing to do is remember: In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year, we have been right there with two quality teams. Now we just have to learn to get over the top.

More Positives

The defense continues to show that it's for real. The raw efficiency numbers don't look great -- the Bears still put up a 100 OE before those last free throws -- but a deeper look inside the four factors reveals a lot. Yes, the FTR was absurd, but when the Cougs kept the Bears at bay and forced them to shoot contested jump shots, they were successful -- Baylor shot just 46.3 effective field goal percentage, well under their season mark of 55 percent. The Cougs also forced more turnovers than the Bears generally commit, and did a great job securing defensive rebounds.

As Bennett mentioned after the game, there were some breakdowns that probably made the team sick when they watched the film, but outside of that, this team was really good defensively and will continue to get better. That ought to scare the rest of the Pac-10, which I'm sure was hoping it was getting WSU on a down year.

DeAngelo Casto is awesome. Period. Forget the missed layups, forget the missed free throws. He is bringing an energy and athleticism to the defense that hasn't been seen in years, and it's going to translate into some offense soon.

Of course he draws comparisions Ivory Clark, but Clark was only 6-foot-6 (although with a tremendous wingspan). Casto is bigger at 6-foot-9, quicker, and a way better rebounder than Clark ever was. Once he truly learns the defensive system, he's going to get so many weakside blocks it'll be ridiculous. He also can guard multiple positions. His job on Sam Young in the second half against Pitt was an eye opener, and his extended minutes Saturday were indicative of how he was playing, not some kind of necessity.

Casto still makes his share of mistakes, but the potential is undeniable -- enjoy it as it unfolds before your eyes rather than getting frustrated by what he's not doing.

The offense scored points without any help from Klay Thompson. The offense still was below average in terms of efficiency (90.5), but one or two more made shots (or free throws) down the stretch and we're talking about an efficiency around 100. That ought to be the goal for this team, because if it can hit that 100 mark with the defense it has, it's going to win a heck of a lot of games.

We've talked a lot around here about the need for a third scorer, and for a night, it was Daven Harmeling, who was aggressively looking for his shot last night. I don't expect that Harmeling will be "feeling it" to the tune of 4-of-5 from 3 every game, but for a night, he was huge. The question becomes, of course, will Harmeling keep pumping it even when he misses a couple? Let's hope so.

Again, let it sink in: This team was in position to win a game against the No. 25 team in the country with its leading scorer going just 2-of-5 for four points. Do not, whatever you do, minimize what the other guys brought to the table on Saturday.

Negatives

There also were some negatives, although nothing to get too alarmed about at this point.

I'm a little surprised at how easily Klay Thompson was taken out of the game. I did predict that teams would try to eliminate either Baynes or Klay on offense, and given Baylor's personnel, it's not surprising they chose Thompson. However, I certainly didn't think it would be so complete.

I think there's plenty of blame to spread on this one. First, Baylor deserves a lot of credit. But beyond that, I think Thompson was way too passive. The Bennett system can sometimes lead a player to do that -- remember all the times we'd yell at the TV for Derrick Low to be more aggressive? -- but Klay just has to look for his shot a little more. When teams crowd him like that, he's got to be able to put the ball on the floor and draw the defense.

Additionally, look for Bennett to devise some ways to free up Klay when teams do what they did last night, which they surely will since there are no secrets with game tape. More screens, some post ups -- remember, despite being light, the kid is 6-foot-6 -- whatever it takes to get the ball in his hands in scoring positions. You can bet Bennett will have a plan in the future.

But let's make one thing clear: This developement doesn't concern me one bit. Klay will learn how to get his shots within this offense, and given the innate basketball knowledge he clearly possesses, bet on this evolution happening fairly quickly. (It might be a bit much to ask for that evolution by Wednesday, though. Pac-10 play is probably a more likely goal.)

Did you see all the minutes logged by the starters? Here are the minutes in Saturday's game:

Rochestie, 40
Harmeling, 36
Baynes, 31
Koprivica, 31
Thompson, 28 (and it would have been more if not for early foul trouble)
Casto, 17
Forrest, 6
Capers, 4
Harthun, 4
Lodwick, 3

This team can't be successful long term if it has that kind of minutes played every time we're in a close game. This is something to keep an eye on.

Taking a Look at Our Chances During the Hoops OOC Schedule

Gamecock Man — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 05:00:43 -0000

Below is the OOC basketball schedule, per the USC athletics website.

F-Nov. 7 Kentucky Wesleyan (EX) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 7 p.m.
F-Nov. 14 Jacksonville State (SS) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 7 p.m.
Su-Nov 16 Winthrop (SS) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 4 p.m.
Sa-Nov. 22 USC Upstate (SS) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 1 p.m.
Tu-Nov. 25 Gardner Webb (SS) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 7 p.m.
F-Nov. 28 College of Charleston Charleston, S.C. (Carolina First Arena) 7 p.m.
Tu-Dec. 2 Princeton Princeton, N.J. (Jadwin Gym) 7 p.m.
F-Dec. 5 Furman Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 6 p.m.
Tu-Dec. 16 NC Central (SS) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 8 p.m.
Sa-Dec. 20 The Citadel (SS) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 5 p.m.
Tu-Dec. 23 Presbyterian College (SS) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 7 p.m.
Tu-Dec. 30 Clemson (FSN) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 7 p.m.
F-Jan. 2 Baylor (FSNSW) Waco, Texas (Ferell Center) 5:30 p.m.
M-Jan. 5 Wofford College (SS) Columbia, S.C. (Colonial Life Arena) 7 p.m.

Four games stand out here as important tests for our team: Winthrop, College of Charleston, Clemson, and Baylor. The other games should be easy wins. Of course, Gardner-Webb did beat Kentucky last year, but hopefully we'll escape that fate. Princeton's career as a giant killer is well known, but the Tigers have fallen on hard times. As far as Jacksonville State is concerned, we'll just have to hope that record keepers don't get confused when we play them and credit the wrong team with the win.

We're flattered, really.

Let's take a closer look at the better OOC opponents we face.

Winthrop

Winthrop has had a lot of success in the Big South conference in recent years. Last year, they went 22-12 and, as usual, represented their conference in the NCAA tournament. Despite their Big South success, though, wins over major conference foes have not come often for the Eagles, so they'll be looking for blood when they come to Columbia.

Luckily for us, however, the Eagles should be in a rebuilding phase this year. They lose four of their top five scorers from a year ago, and while Randy Peele has proven that he's a good enough coach to get his young team ready for the Big South, he'll likely have trouble with a more experienced, athletic Gamecocks team.

Verdict for Winthrop: Likely Win

College of Charleston

The COC had a tough year last year, going 16-17 and 9-11 in the Southern Conference, otherwise lately known as Davidson's Whipping Boys. However, Bobby Cremins's team returns every significant player this year. Cremins is a good, proven coach, and if things come together for his group of players, his team should challenge Davidson in the SoCon.

COC may be a tough out for the Gamecocks. The Cougars present minor matchup problems for Carolina. Carolina's Achilles Heel last year was talented big men, and COC sports two in Jermaine Johnson and Dustin Scott. Johnson and Scott don't sport quite the size of the SEC big men that plagued the Gamecocks last year, but they should be able to score some points in the paint against us. Also playing in COC's favor is that this game will take place in Charleston and lots of COC fans will undoubtedly be on hand to see the Cougars try to take out one of the big boys.

Verdict for COC: Somewhat Probable Win

See previews for Clemson and Baylor after the jump.

Clemson

Our friends from Pickens County have developed a nice little basketball program over the last few years under Coach Oliver Purnell, who is undoubtedly one of college hoops bright young coaching stars. The Tigers made the NCAA tournament last year and anything less than that this time around will be a disappointment, as they return senior guard and team leader K. C. Rivers along with other talented players. Many media outlets rate Clemson in their pre-season top 25s.

This will definitely be a difficult game for the Gamecocks. The Tigers have a number of talented shooters and are capable of scoring lots of points, and Darrin Horn's up-tempo offense plays into Clemson's hand to a certain degree because the Tigers have strong full-court and perimeter defenders. Clemson also brings in 7-2 center Catalin Baciu from Romania. Baciu is raw player and will need development before he really blossoms into a top player, but he's capable of scoring under the basket and Clemson will undoubtedly try to get him the ball so he can take advantage of the fact that he's a good several inches taller than our big men.

To make a long story short, we'll need to play a great game to beat the Tigers. We can do it, but it's not very likely. The game takes place in Columbia, so hopefully we'll get a little help from a pumped up crowd.

Verdict for Clemson: Likely Loss

Baylor

After enduring well-publicized scandal and tragedy in 2003, the Bears surged to a 21-11 record last year and ended up being one of the season's feel-good stories. A repeat performance may be likely this year, as Baylor returns its best players. The Bears sport one of the nation's best backcourts in Curtis Jerrells and Henry Dugat, and their frontline is also good. They won't sneak up on anybody again this year, but they're good enough to play with most teams.

Baylor doesn't have a player like Clemson's Baciu that will give Carolina fits. They also aren't as good defensively as the Tigers, so we should be able to score points against them. However, they'll get their points as well, and since they have a little more momentum coming into the season than we do, they'll likely be favored in this game.

Verdict for Baylor: Somewhat Probable Loss

Final Thoughts

Our OOC schedule this year is a good bit easier than what we faced last year. Gone are the Southern Cals, NC States, and George Masons, most of them replaced by teams that we should handle easily. That being the case, we should have no more than three losses headed into conference play. That's a good thing for this team, as the wins will build confidence and gives us a better chance of finishing with a respectable record even if we don't play great in SEC play. Playing tough OOC opponents is great for good teams that need the quality wins to help their NCAA seeding, but we're probably not at that point this year. And if we are, we need to beat Clemson and Baylor.