SB Nation - Bryan Petersen

KNOW THY ENEMY: Iowa State Cyclones

BracketCat — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:00:25 -0000

I'm starting to see pumpkins everywhere, and you know what pumpkins always remind me of? Basketballs.

That's right, hoops season is just around the corner. Practice begins Oct. 16 in most places, which means it's time to start previewing the Big 12. Now, I haven't packed it in on the football season yet, by any means. But let's be honest: We all knew coming into 2009-2010 that football was just gonna be the appetizer. We're going to have a nationally ranked squad this year, and it's getting close enough to tipoff that I think the time has come to begin getting officially psyched up.

But to keep this on a semi-football-related plane, at least for the duration of the season, I will endeavor to keep these loosely linked to our football opponent of the week past. Which means it's time to venture up to Ames and see what Farmageddon on the hardwood might look like this year...

Normally these will publish at noon on Mondays, but as usual, the first one always is the most time-consuming because all the formatting has to be done from scratch. Anyhow, click the jump for the most comprehensive preview of the Cyclone hoopsters you'll find this side of Clone Chronicles.

The Coach

Greg McDermott
Fourth Season

44-51 (14-34) at Iowa State
265-178 (85-89) overall

McDermott's Cyclone teams consistently have ranked in the upper half of the Big 12 in scoring defense and in three-point shooting in his three seasons in Ames. In just three seasons, McDermott has coached four players who have earned all-conference recognition, including Craig Brackins, who was the first Cyclone since 2001 to earn first-team All-Big 12 honors, in 2009.

The Departures

Starters

Bryan Petersen (30.1 minutes per game, 6.6 points per game, 3.7 rebounds per game)

Reserves

Wes Eikmeier (11.3 minutes per game, 0.8 point per game, 2.9 rebounds per game)
Sean Haluska (15.7 minutes per game, 1.0 point per game, 2.5 rebounds per game)
Cameron Lee (3.2 minutes per game, 0.7 point per game, 0.4 rebound per game)
Clinton Mann (2.4 minutes per game, 0.4 point per game, 0.7 rebound per game)
Alex Thompson (14.1 minutes per game, 2.6 points per game, 2.4 rebounds per game)

The Veterans

		#1 Dominique Buckley Sophomore Guard 6-2 \| 205 Detroit, Mich. Buckley played in 25 games as a reserve point guard, averaging 1.3 points and 0.8 assists. He logged a career-high 19 minutes vs. Texas A&M, and tallied five points vs. SIU-Edwardsville and Colorado. Buckley also handed out three assists vs. Iowa, Jacksonville State and SIU-Edwardsville.

		#4 Charles Boozer Junior Guard 6-3 \| 195 Raleigh, N.C. Boozer competed in 23 games, giving Iowa State a lift from the bench. He averaged 2.5 points and 1.6 rebounds; shot 37.2 percent from the field, 29.6 percent from 3-point range and 75 percent from the free-throw line; tallied a career-high 11 points vs. Missouri; and grabbed a career-high seven rebounds while logging a career-high 19 minutes vs. Kansas State. (And no, your eyes do not deceive you. Charles is Carlos Boozer's younger brother.)

		#5 Lucca Staiger Junior Guard 6-5 \| 225 Blaustein, Germany Big 12 Rookie of the Week (12/15/08 and 01/12/09) Staiger started 27 games last season, averaging 8.2 points and 2.2 rebounds. He was Iowa State's top long-range shooter, making a team-high 74 treys in 192 attempts. His 74 3-pointers rank seventh on ISU's single-season 3-pointers made list. Staiger averaged 2.3 3-pointers made per game to rank sixth in the Big 12 and seventh on ISU's single-season list. He made a 3-pointer in 26 of 32 games and had 14 games with three or more treys. Staiger had a streak of 16 consecutive games with a 3-pointer, tying for the third-longest stretch in school history. He scored 14 points behind a 4-of-8 effort from downtown vs. Oregon State and poured in a career-high 24 points on 8-of-11 shooting from 3-point range vs. Drake. His eight treys in that game tie for second on ISU's single-game record chart. Staiger tied a Big 12 mark by making seven treys in the first half vs. Drake, tallied 15 points in his Big 12 debut at Texas, drilled six 3-pointers en route to 18 points vs. Nebraska, posted 14 points behind a 4-of-10 effort from long range at Oklahoma State, and was 5-of-9 from downtown and scored 17 points at Nebraska. His 74 treys already rank 18th in school history.

		#10 Diante Garrett Junior Guard 6-4 \| 185 Milwaukee, Wis. World Vision Classic All-Tournament (2008) NSCA All-American (2008) Garrett was one of the Big 12's top playmakers, ranking third in the league and 36th nationally in assists. He totaled 161 assists to rank 14th on Iowa State's single-season assist chart. One of two players to start all 32 games, Garrett was second on the team in scoring and averaged 3.3 rebounds. He led the team in steals with 30, shot 70.7 percent from the free-throw line, ranked 10th in the Big 12 in assist/turnover ratio, handed out five or more assists in 17 of 32 games, led or tied ISU in assists in 22 of 32 games, recorded two double-doubles and four double-digit assist games, and posted a career-high 26 points at Hawai'i, going 10-for-10 from the free-throw line and marking the 16th time in school history where a Cyclone was perfect from the charity stripe with at least 10 attempts. Garrett dished out a career-high 11 assists vs. Loyola Marymount and Missouri, posted a double-double with 17 points and 10 assists against Oklahoma, notched 17 points vs. Texas Tech and made a career-high three treys vs. UW-Milwaukee, en route to 17 points. He currently ranks 18th on ISU's career assist chart.

		#21 Craig Brackins Junior Forward 6-10 \| 230 Palmdale, Calif. First Team All-Big 12 (2009) First Team USBWA All-District VI (2009) First Team NABC All-District 8 (2009) Basketball Times First Team All-Midlands (2009) AP Honorable Mention All-American (2009) Collegehoopsnet.com HM All-American (2009) Kansas City Star All-Big 12 Improved (2009) Big 12 Player of the Week (2009 - three times) MVP of World Vision Classic (2008) Brackins recorded one of the greatest seasons in Iowa State history, earning first-team all-Big 12 and first-team all-District honors from the NABC, USBWA and Basketball Times. He was named honorable mention All-American by the AP, was the first Cyclone to earn first-team all-Big 12 honors since Curtis Stinson in 2006 and was named Big 12 Player of the Week three times. Brackins averaged 20.2 points, ranking second in the Big 12 and 22nd nationally, and 9.5 rebounds to rank third in the Big 12 and 26th nationally. Along with Blake Griffin and Luke Harangody, he was one of three players in the country to rank in the top 30 nationally in both scoring and rebounding. In Big 12 games, Brackins averaged a double-double, scoring 20 or more points in 11 of 16 conference games. He scored a league-high 348 points in Big 12 games, the 10th-best single-season scoring total in league history; posted 19 20-point games and three 30-point outings; tallied 12 20-point/10-rebound games; led ISU in scoring in 21 of the last 23 games and paced the Cyclones in rebounding in the final 18 games; tallied 15 double-doubles to rank fourth in the Big 12; and ended the season ranking in ISU's single season top 11 in four categories: field goals, points, rebounds and double-doubles. Brackins is only the third player in school history to record 600 points and 300 rebounds in a season. His 645 points as a sophomore ranks second on ISU's class list behind Jeff Grayer, who tallied 684 points in his sophomore campaign. He became the 27th member of the 1,000-point club and just the fifth Cyclone in school history to record 1,000 points in their first two seasons. Brackins scored 18 or more points in a half eight times and tallied a double-double by halftime three times. He scored a career-high 42 points vs. Kansas, making 11 of 19 shots from the floor, 3 of 5 from beyond the arc and 17 of 21 from the charity stripe. The 42 points tie for the sixth-best effort by a Big 12 player in league history and are the fourth-best scoring effort in ISU history. His 17 free throws made tie for third best in ISU history. Brackins registered 38 points, including 23 in the second half, on 15-of-23 shooting from the floor at Houston. His 15 field goals made are tied for third-best all-time by a Big 12 player. He scored 32 points in an overtime victory at Northern Iowa and grabbed a career-high 17 boards vs. Jacksonville State.

		#23 Jamie Vanderbeken Senior Forward 6-11 \| 245 Belleville, Ontario Kansas City Star's Big 12 All-Newcomer Team (2009) Iowa State's top reserve in the post, averaging 5.5 points and 3.0 rebounds in 31 games, Vanderbeken led ISU in 3-point percentage, making 35 of 86 shots from beyond the arc. He averaged 6.3 points in Big 12 play, was second on the team in blocks with 21, made 23 of his 35 treys in the last 14 games, had four games with three or more treys, tallied a double-double in his debut with 14 points and 10 boards vs. UC Davis, was 5 of 7 from the field and scored 12 points vs. Oklahoma, tallied 14 points at Kansas State, posted career highs in points and 3-pointers at Kansas, and was 4 of 5 from 3-point range en route to 12 points vs. Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship.

		#41 Justin Hamilton Sophomore Center 6-11 \| 255 Alpine, Utah Hamilton had a solid freshman campaign, averaging 4.2 points and 2.9 rebounds. He started 18 games, played in 32 contests and led the Cyclones in field-goal percentage, hitting 57 of 100 shots from the floor. His 57-percent clip from the floor ranks 15th on Iowa State's single-season record chart and second on ISU's freshman list. Hamilton tallied 17 blocks last season. In his first career start, he scored eight points and grabbed a career-high 12 boards in a win at Houston. Hamilton posted a career-high 16 points vs. SIU-Edwardsville and scored 13 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the field at Missouri. He recorded eight points and 10 rebounds at Texas, and posted a career-high three blocks vs. Colorado.

The Redshirts

#11 Scott Christopherson
Sophomore Guard
6-3 | 205
LaCrosse, Wis.

Christopherson sat out the 2008-09 season as a redshirt after transferring from Marquette, where he appeared in 18 games as a freshman, all as a reserve. He missed the first five games of the regular season after undergoing arthroscopic surgery on his right knee, but netted a career-high six points on 2-of-3 shooting from the floor vs. Savannah State.

Christopherson averaged 1.3 points and 0.7 rebounds per game at Marquette, and shot 42.1 percent from the field and 40 percent from 3-point range.

#34 L.A. Pomlee
Freshman Forward
6-8 | 235
Davenport, Iowa

Pomlee sat out the 2008-2009 season as a redshirt. He was ranked as the 38th-best power forward in the class of 2008 by Scout.com, was a first-team Class 4A all-state selection by both the Iowa Newspaper Association and The Des Moines Register as a senior, and also was a Quad City Times all-Metro pick.

Pomlee averaged 15.4 points and led the Mississippi Athletic Conference in both rebounding and field-goal percentage as a senior. His Central team went undefeated in the conference and 23-3 overall, and advanced to the state championship game, falling to Iowa City High 64-54 in the Class 4A state title game, in which he scored 14 points and grabbed 12 boards.

Pomlee missed his entire junior season after developing a blood clot in his leg, but was a third-team all-state selection in his sophomore campaign after averaging 14.2 points and 10.1 rebounds. He chose Iowa State over West Virginia and Wisconsin.

The Newcomers

		#2 Chris Colvin Freshman Guard 6-2 \| 195 Chicago, Ill. One of the best guards in the Class of 2009, Colvin was ranked as the 99th-best player in the nation and the 15th-best point guard nationally in the Rivals.com rankings. Scout.com ranked him as the 10th-best point guard in 2009 and he was ranked at No. 77 in the ESPNU final ratings. Colvin was named second-team Class 4A all-state a senior by the AP, and averaged 12.3 ppg and 6.2 assists on one of the best and most balanced prep teams in the nation. His Whitney Young team defeated Waukegan 69-66 in the state championship game to finish the season at 26-9 and win the 2009 Illinois Class 4A state title. He had seven points and a team-high six assists in the state championship game, and scored 14, 20, 12 and 17 points in the four previous postseason tournament games. Colvin averaged 14.1 ppg as a junior, earning all-state honors, and started three years at Whitney Young. He was named as one of the best players at the 2008 Reebok All-American Camp and chose Iowa State over Baylor, Florida State, Illinois, Kentucky, Marquette, Providence, USC and Washington State.

		#3 Marquis Gilstrap Senior Forward 6-6 \| 210 Covington, Ga. Gilstrap emerged as one of the best junior college players in the nation in his one season at Gulf Coast, averaging 22.6 points and 10.1 rebounds for one of the biggest surprise teams in junior college. He earned honorable mention All- America honors by the NJCAA, was rated as the 26th-best player in the class of 2009 by ESPN.com, and ranked 10th nationally in scoring and 20th in the nation in rebounding in the final NJCAA statistical rankings. Gilstrap shot 48.3 percent from the field, 40.9 percent from 3-point range and 74.8 percent from the free-throw line at Gulf Coast, was named Panhandle Conference Player of the Year and first-team team all-Panhandle Conference, and was a first-team All-FCCAA honoree. He led his team to a 24-9 overall record and a spot in the state final, where GCCC lost to No. 1-ranked Chipola JC 68-65 to miss out at a chance for the national tournament. Gilstrap also scored 27 points to help his squad defeat No. 3 Miami Dade in the first round of the state playoffs, and averaged 24.6 points and 10.3 rebounds to earn FCCAA All-Tournament team honors. He had seven 30+ scoring games and participated in the 2009 NJCAA All-Star Basketball Classic.

		#12 Alex Dorr Freshman Forward 6-7 \| 215 Norwalk, Iowa Dorr joins the Cyclones as a recruited walk-on. He averaged 20.2 points and 9.3 rebounds while earning Class 3A first-team all-state honors from both the Iowa Newspaper Association and The Des Moines Register as a senior. Dorr led Norwalk to its first-ever state championship game in 2009. The team finished the season with a 24-3 record. He scored 23 points and grabbed nine boards vs. Dubuque Wahlert in the first round of the state tournament, and averaged 18.9 points and 11.2 rebounds as a junior, earning second-team all-state honors.

		#15 Antwon Oliver Freshman Guard 6-5 \| 175 Racine, Wis. Oliver earned honorable mention all-state and third-team all-area honors as a senior, and developed into one of the best players in Wisconsin in his last year, leading his Horlick team to the Division 1 state championship game. He was ranked as the 13th-best player in the state of Wisconsin and averaged 16.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists and hit 45 treys as a senior. Horlick went 24-2 and lost in the state final to Madison Memorial, 56-41. Oliver led his team with 13 points in the state championship game and was invited to play in the 2009 Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association Boy's All-Star game. He averaged 12.5 points as a junior and 5.1 points as a sophomore.

		#22 LaRon Dendy Junior Forward 6-9 \| 225 Greenville, S.C. Dendy played two years at Indian Hills Community College in Ottumwa, Iowa, and was rated as the 57th-best player in the preseason 2008-09 Juco Junction rankings. He averaged 8.5 points and 6.3 rebounds as a freshman, earning honorable mention All-Region XI honors, but suffered a stress fracture in his sophomore season and saw limited action, averaging 8.1 points and 4.1 rebounds and shooting 63.3 percent from the field in nine games. Ranked as one of the top post players in the Class of 2007, Dendy was rated as the 63rd-best player in the nation and the 17th-best power forward in the Rivals.com Class of 2007, and was the seventh-best player in the Southeast Region in 2007. He originally committed to Clemson, but opted to go to junior college.

		#25 Bubu Palo Freshman Guard 6-1 \| 175 Ames, Iowa Palo is a recruited walk-on. He was the starting point guard on Ames' 2009 Class 4A state championship team, which finished the season with a perfect 26-0 mark. Palo started his last two seasons at point guard, averaged 9.1 points as a senior to earn second-team All-CIML honors, had a 3.34 assist/turnover ratio and shot 52.0 percent from the field. He scored 11 points in Ames' state championship game win over Linn-Mar and was an honorable mention all-conference pick as a junior.

My thanks to the Iowa State sports information department for the photos and most of the information for the bios.

The Analysis

It's possible that my judgment has been colored by staring at these stats and bios for too long, but at least on paper, the Cyclones appear to have a much improved team. Thanks largely to the return of future NBA player Craig Brackins, Iowa State returns 77.9 percent of its scoring and 72.5 percent of its rebounding from a team that set school marks for 3-pointers made (236) and fewest turnovers (12.1 per game) in a season.

There were few notable departures, as most of the graduated seniors were little-used reserves. The biggest loss is starting wing Bryan Petersen, although there is reason to believe there will be little drop-off at that position. Also gone from last year's team is Sean Haluska, who chipped in quite a few minutes off the bench.

But the Cyclones return their other four starters, and add some significant pieces to challenge them for playing time. In the frontcourt, I expect Diante Garrett to retain his starting spot and continue growing as one of the premier point guards in the league, but Chris Colvin will push him to the max. Colvin is one of the most highly touted recruits Iowa State has signed (other than Brackins, of course) and turned down programs such as Marquette and USC to go to Ames. He could be the latest in a long line of talented Chicago point guards who have made in impact in the Big 12.

All Lucca Staiger did was come in and set a bunch of Iowa State records shooting the three-ball. Pretty impressive, considering he battled a lingering injury for at least part of the season. He will be complemented by Scott Christopherson, a transfer from Marquette who sat out last year per NCAA rules. The guard spots are bolstered by sophomore Dominique Buckley and veteran journeyman Charles Boozer.

Antwon Oliver is a promising prospect fresh out of high school, but will have a tough time finding minutes in such a deep, experienced backfield. Look for him to redshirt, along with preferred walk-ons Bubu Palo and Alex Dorr.

The frontcourt begins and ends with Brackins. One of the best players in the Big 12, he needs no introduction to the rest of the conference, but what he does need is help, especially with Petersen leaving. Well, help is on the way in the form of Marquis Gilstrap, a Top-50 juco player who has just one season to make an impact. At 6-6 and 210, Gilstrap has good size to hold down the 3 spot. Another exciting player for Cyclone fans to watch is juco transfer LaRon Dendy, a former Clemson commit who was in the Rivals Top 75 for 2007.

Justin Hamilton and Jamie Vanderbeken will man the post. Hamilton is considered the returning starter, but Vanderbeken pulled a few starts as well. It's really irrelevant, as both will rotate a lot in the paint in order to spell each other. Vanderbeken has an added dimension in that he is an excellent 3-point shooter, a talent that makes it hard for teams to pack it in against him and Brackins.

A wild-card player is L.A. Pomlee, who redshirted last season. He has a pretty good pedigree, given that he was a Scout Top 50 player and passed up a chance to play for Bob Huggins at West Virginia. Pomlee might make his biggest impact as a 4 whenever the Cyclones go with a small lineup, a formation that usually sees Brackins rotate into the post.

So, what we have here is a team with one of the best players in the conference, four returning starters and several more experienced veterans, and it loses very few impact players, but adds one of the best prep players in the country, as well as two talented juco players and a Big East transfer. That sounds like a recipe for dramatic improvement, which Greg McDermott better deliver, or the pressure might start to turn up on him. It's Year 4, and Iowa State needs to show some serious signs of breaking out of the basement now that the administration has built him a new practice facility.

But this year will be the most stacked the Big 12 ever has been, and the Cyclones still have a major weakness in their frontcourt: Other than Brackins, they don't have any truly athletic posts. When you look at a team like Kansas or Texas, you see multiple big, athletic matchup nightmares. Iowa State doesn't really have more than one or two of those guys. Hamilton and Vanderbeken are traditional centers who aren't nearly as talented as Cole Aldrich. The season could swing on whether Gilstrap can overcome past injuries and step up to be the third scoring threat the Clones need to keep defenses honest and free up Brackins to do some serious damage.

Projected Starting Lineup


Diante Garrett	Lucca Staiger	Marquis Gilstrap	Craig Brackins	Justin Hamilton
1	2	3	4	5

Projected Top Reserves


Chris Colvin	Scott Christopherson	LaRon Dendy	L.A. Pomlee	Jamie Vanderbeken
1	2	3	4	5

The Final Verdict

Although ISU has a pretty good backcourt, I think they're going to resemble the 2008-2009 Wildcats in a lot of ways when they hit the meat of league play. They'll be improved, but with Kansas, Kansas State and Missouri to contend with in the North, breaking into the top half of the conference might be too much to ask. An NIT berth would be a solid season for this squad, although it seems like a lame ending for a great player such as Brackins.

Predicted finish: 9th

Best-case scenario: 7th

Iowa St. 78, Texas Tech 76

CrossCyed — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 00:28:32 -0000

Final - 3.7.2009	1	2	Total
Texas Tech Red Raiders	37	39	76
Iowa St. Cyclones	42	36	78

Complete Coverage >

It may have been a rainy day in Ames, but Bryan Petersen made it one to remember with 20 points as Iowa State survived, 78-76, against the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Iowa State finishes the season in 10th place in the Big 12, and will play Oklahoma State Wednesday night in the Big 12 Tournament.

Petersen started out on fire, and it was enough to help Iowa State jump to an early 10-0 lead. Tech stayed with Iowa State the majority of the game, but it simply wasn't enough as John Roberson's shot clanked off as time ran out.

Surprisingly enough, Iowa State finishes the regular season with a 4-4 conference record at home. Sean Haluska, Bryan Petersen and Alex Thompson (and Craig Brackins?) go out as winners on their home court, and, at least for today, all's pretty good in Cyclone Country.

Men's Basketball: A&M Preview

Mark Kieffer — Sat, 28 Feb 2009 03:23:18 -0000

Next Game

Iowa St. Cyclones
@ Texas A&M Aggies

Saturday, Feb 28, 2009, 12:30 PM CST
Reed Arena

Complete Coverage >

I am eating crow. I've been eating it all week but it's tasting kind of good!

I was totally wrong about the Baylor game, but at the same time, who expected it? I mean, we were averaging 59 ppg in conference play facing a team that can score.

Anyhow, we came through and hopefully can carry some of that momentum into College Station.

Before we take a look at A&M, let's take a look at the Big XII conference standings:

Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 2.27.2009 at 3:08 AM CST)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Kansas Jayhawks	12	1	23	5
Oklahoma Sooners	11	2	25	3
Missouri Tigers	11	2	24	4
Texas Longhorns	8	5	19	8
Kansas St. Wildcats	7	6	19	9
Oklahoma St. Cowboys	7	6	18	9
Texas A&M Aggies	6	7	20	8
Nebraska Cornhuskers	6	7	16	10
Baylor Bears	4	9	16	11
Iowa St. Cyclones	3	10	14	14
Texas Tech Red Raiders	2	11	12	16
Colorado Buffaloes	1	12	9	18

A&M is at the 6th spot, and we're holding it down in the 10th spot. Every game from here on out is big as ISU could theoretically take Baylor's spot in 9th. Now I know that some people may say the 10th is better because you will avoid the #1 seed in the 2nd round if you win.

I hear what everyone is saying but we're 0-6 against the top 4 seeds as of right now anyways. I'd rather just have us finish as good as possible in the regular season.

Let's look at Texas A&M:

Average about 70 points per game and allow 65 points per game
The shoot 43% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc, which is very similar to ISU
They commit about 12 turnovers per game and only get 11 assists per game
They grab 37 rebounds per game to ISU's 34
They are led by Senior Guard Josh Carter, as he averages 13.5 ppg

On paper, they really look beatable. They have 20 wins, but in conference they haven't been impressive. Are they a little more talented than us? Yes. But there's no reason why we couldn't win this game , other than the fact that there's something in the water in Ames that doesn't allow for ISU's Men's teams to win on the road.

Some fun facts:

According to Chad Ford, Brackins is projecting to be a 20th-35th pick if he were to declare for the NBA draft. Hopefully this means he comes back for at least 1 more year to improve his game. He has a ton of potential, but there are just things he can work on (defense, outside shot, adding a little more muscle) that would make him a higher pick (and make him more $$) in the future.
This 2008-2009 team has made the most 3 pointers in ISU history in a single season at 208. The previous high was 203 in 2006-2007
Bryan Peterson has had 1 game in which he had the team high on rebounds? Anyone care to guess which game that might be?
Going back to Petey, there was also another game where he had the team high in blocks
Going back to Petey 1 more time, he is now 10th all time at ISU with 90 career 3 pointers. He also has made at least 1 3 pointer in 9 straight games
Diante Garrett is already 19th all time at ISU in assist with 146

Prediction: I am done making these with this team. My prediction is that whichever I make will be dead wrong.

Go Cyclones!

A KenPom Preview: Iowa State (Again)

rockchalk — Wed, 18 Feb 2009 04:25:49 -0000

As always, these previews heavily use Ken Pomeroy's statistics page. Iowa State's can be found here. For further reference, check the first KP preview of the Cyclones here. It was done prior to the first matchup with the Clones, an 82-67 victory for the Jayhawks. For more information on Iowa State, make sure and check out SB Nation blog Clone Chronicles, the place to go if you ever want to learn more about the team from Ames.

Opening Thoughts

This is a game we can't afford to lose. Simple as that. It shouldn't be terribly difficult to win (KP gives us a 95% chance of winning, afterall), but a win still must occur. A loss loses moentum, loses ground in the Race for the Big 12 Title, makes people across the nation wonder. It wouldn't be fun.

But of course, all of you know that. So, all that's left to do is to actually go out and win. No national TV (for the first time, including ABC regional broadcasts, since the conference-opener against K-State on January 13th), just an opportunity for us to, relatively, sneak under the radar and pick up a decent win.

That's all. Just dont' blow it.

The Background

Frankly, the Clones are playing for little, currently. I suppose the CBI could come calling at the end of the season, but that doesn't seem to be something that would provide an incredible amount of motivation. Of course, this is college basketball, so they won't roll out and lay over. But, it won't be anything like our two most recent contests, where we had two rivals out for the kill. They've lost 7 of their last 8 games, with their lone win being a conference home game against Colorado; a game where the Buffs were held to all of 9 points in the first half. 5 of the last 6 since we last played 'em, with the aforementioned CU victory.

There isn't the same Hilton Magic to deal with as the trip up to Ames, and we really shouldn't lose this game.

Nevertheless, some semblance of a preview after the jump...

The Offense -- 183rd (Adj. O Rating)

Overall, the Clones' offense is terrible. Besides a 91-point explosion against SIU-Edwardsville, a 3-12 Independent team, they've yet to hit 80. In conference play, their high has been 70 points; in their 28-point victory over the Buffs. Of course, some of this can be explained away by their tempo; they are the 244th slowest team in CBB. So, naturally, their point totals tend to be lower. But, the tempo-free stats don't tell any prettier of a story.

Four Factors

Effective FG% (123rd) -- Better than their overall ranking, and is probably their second-biggest offensive strength. Basically, they aren't incredibly dangerous, but you can't just freely give up open looks and expect to get away with it. Their eFG% was 40% in our first game, and that included Brackins' explosion and the home crowd being on their side. This time, assuming Brackins doesn't have another Durant-esque performance in him, that number should plummet. So, crash goes their chances.
Turnover % (38th) -- Get excited. No, really. It's all they're good at, at least offensively. Being a slow-it-down team, it isn't terribly surprising that Greg McDermott stresses holding on to the ball. It's pretty much their skill. They did better-than-average last time against us, and that's why they were able to stay so close for so long. Let's turn 'em over more, this time.
Offensive Rebounding % (340th) -- Non-existent. Don't worry 'bout it. Godawful. All of these phrases/words apply to the Clones' offensive rebounding efforts. Part of this is attempting to limit fast breaks, in line with their whole slow-it-down thinking, and part of it is they don't have an offensive rebounder. Brackins is so often the one fifteen feet away shooting, and the next-best is Justin Hamilton. Youch.
FTA/FGA (337th) -- This partly makes sense, from what I've seen, and partly doesn't. On one hand, they shoot an inordinate amount of longballs, and that's not the way to get more attempts at the free throw line. On the other hand, though, they have Craig Brackins. And, as good as he is, you'd figure he'd get to the line himself more than the 13 times-or-so they average as a team. Whatever. Of course, they shot 27 freebies last time they played us (including 21 by Brackins himself), so who knows if this stat means anything.

Miscellaneous

Three. Point. Shooting. It's what they do, up in Ames, with that mid-major-with-a-star offense McDermott runs. 40% of their shots are threes, but they actually aren't that awesome at it; only 34.4% as a team. That could be why they suck.

The Defense -- 60th (Adj. D Rating)

In typical mid-major fashion, they play better D than O. It isn't incredible or nothing, but 60th in the country ain't bad. They'll get up on you and play you tough, almost always in man-to-man, but they aren't a team of Brady Morningstars, or anything. They have some weak spots, too, (i.e. Jamie Vanderbeeken and Lucca Staiger), so some of the lesser known players could explode.

Four Factors

Effective FG% (54th) -- Like I said, they'll play you tough, but they aren't unbeatable. Our ball movement should get us open looks on the perimeter, not even considering Sherron's out-of-this-world driving ability. The key, naturally, is actually hitting your open shots. Just in case you were wondering, we were 6-13 from three last game (Reed and Brady shot 4-6). I'd take that again, I suppose, but I think we can do better, too.
Turnover % (337th) -- While their D is pretty good, they rarely turn you over. We turned it over 11 times in our trip up to Ames, which is actually about their average, to a tee. I hate these type of teams, though. Because, with as turnover-prone as we are, if we turn it over a bunch then their D becomes stellar. And if their D becomes stellar, they stand a chance. So, Sherron and Company, just don't turn it over.
Offensive Rebounding % (11th) -- While they completely abandon the offensive glass, in an effort to limit the fast breaks, they all crash the defensive glass, as they aren't interested in pushing the ball up the floor anyways. So, Morris twins, if we're interested in getting second-chance points, we're going to have to work for it. Big time. But again, like the Turnover %, it's a double-edged sword to be really good/bad at something. Because, if we can be a factor on the offensive glass, then their D becomes below-average, and combining that with a close-to-awful O is the makings for a blowout.
FTA/FGA (36th) -- They don't foul you a bunch, but you will get your chances at the free throw line. We shot 18 last game, but a lot of those came at the end with the intentional fouls. Nothing else to mention, really; keep on playing like always, and if they foul you they foul you. Simple as that.

Miscellaneous

While they never turn you over, they steal it even less (which, obviously, is a part of turning you over). They are, literally, the worst thieving team in the country; they steal it less than anyone else. No, really. It's quite incredible. Another interesting tidbit; they don't give up a whole heckuva lot three-point attempts. So, while I still think we'll get them, it isn't like they will be just giving away open looks.

The Players

Not to toot my own horn, but I thought I did a really good job last time previewing the Clone players. So, while the statistics are surely different (if only slightly, hopefully), I figure you'll still get the general picture. So, here is last time's preview of the players:

The Players

When you are discussing Iowa State basketball, the first two words out of your mouth should be "Hilton Coliseum". And then, when asked to name something about this year's squad, you should quickly say "Craig Brackins". Everything, just about, goes through Brackins. He isn't the whole team, though, and they have a couple other, solid pieces. But, if we lose, it'll be because of Brackins. Book it.

Craig Brackins PF -- Damn. The Cyclones run their offense through Brackins on about a third of their possessions. No, seriously. That is good enough for 17th in the entire country. He is, literally, the key to their offense. Which, given his position and height (6'10"), is nerveracking. We ain't sticking Cole on him and letting him pick up fouls, so it'll be on the Morris twins and, perhaps, Mario Little some to contain him. It's possible, and if they can accomplish it, we're essentially assured victory, but it scares me. A lot. Oh, and Brackins takes a helluva lot of shots, too. Nearly 36% of the team's shots, or 13th in the country. Damn. He's the only good player on their team at drawing the contact and getting to the free throw line, too, so there's that. Combining that with the Morris' incredible ability to foul, and that's dangerous.

Lucca Staiger SF -- Dude's a three-point specialist; that's all. No, seriously. He's shot 24 two-pointers, and 110 three-pointers. He's really good at the long ball, though, (43%), so he's worth watching. He's taken all of six free throws all year long, showing how much he drives to the basket. One would imagine Brady would be assigned to simply follow him around everywhere, but who knows.

Diante Garrett PG -- Garrett is a tall-ass point guard, standing at 6'4". He isn't a terribly efficient shooter, though, and isn't a three-point threat. He's a pretty solid distributor, though, and never, ever fouls on the defensive end. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up guarding Sherron, and his length could pose Sherron some problems. However, on the offensive end, we should be fine. Stick TyTay on him, and he shouldn't get much done. If he can consistently get in the lane, though, we could be in big trouble. He is really good at driving and either scooping it in to Brackins or kicking it out to a three-point shooter, most likely Staiger. Keep him out of the lane, and you shouldn't have a problem stopping their entire offense.

Bryan Petersen SG -- Petersen is the senior, the veteran leader. He's capable of handling the ball if he must, but isn't particularly good at anything. He is their second best three-point shooter, though, so we can't sleep on him out on the perimeter.

Alex Thompson C -- Well, he's really tall. That's about all I've got. He is a pretty good shot-blocker inside, and is an above average defensive rebounder. Besides that, there isn't much else to say. He isn't a very good player, is virtually non-existent on the offensive end. Should provide Cole some leeway to go over and help out on Brackins, because I don't think anyone is too worried Thompson is going to blow up in everyone's face and change the course of the game.

The Rest of the Bunch -- Besides that starting five, the Cyclones use four other players, primarily. You've got senior Sean Haluska, who is another fine shooter from the outside (35% from three), as well as freshman Wes Eikmeier. Eikmeier is even better from the outside (33%, but in twice the shots), although he turns the ball over twice as often as the veteran, Haluska, does. Then, you have another pair of highly similar players. One is junior Jamie Vanderbeken. The other is freshman Justin Hamilton. Well, they really aren't similar in anything, except for the fact that they both stand 6'11". Vanderbeken, being a foreigner, likes to think of himself as a three-point specialist, and he might be right. In limited attempts, he is shooting 40%. However, he is also a pretty good defensive rebounder, and is significantly better than Thompson on the offensive glass. Hamilton is better than both on the offensive end (in fact, according to OR %, he's the best offensive rebounder on the team) and is another soild defensive rebounder. Hamilton's offensive exploits, however, are more limited.

The Keys

Turnovers -- Either way the turnover battle tilts, that team will get a big advantage. If we turn them over, consistently, they don't really stand a chance of winning. If we turn the ball over a bunch, then the game will be incredibly low-scoring, likely, and a poor shooting performance from us (or a really good shooting performance from them) could lead to a gigantic upset. So, just don't screw up the turnover battle. Please.
The Law Firm -- These three, Morris Morris & Little, all could play huge roles. They are the trio that will be assigned Craig Brackins, and hopefully they do a better job of it than they did last time. All three could also play a big role on the offensive glass. Remember, the Clones are hellbent on not giving up second chance points, so if any of the Law FIrm can step up and get second chance points, our offense will just be that much better. Lastly, the Cyclones really don't have that good of a defensive stopper to stick on any of them. Actually, it'll almost assuredly be Brackins. So, if they can either blow up on Brackins, or at the very least draw some foul trouble, that'll be a positive. So many opportunities to do something positive, and all it takes is one, really, and we're going to win. Not a terribly difficult task, but a very important one.

Really, that's all. Those two things happen, in some form, and we win. If not, as long as they don't go too far south, we probably still end up leaving with a W. Just a closer, scarier one.

OGT coming tomorrow.

ISU 70, CU 42

Mark Kieffer — Thu, 12 Feb 2009 03:33:46 -0000

Final - 2.11.2009	1	2	Total
Colorado Buffaloes	9	33	42
Iowa St. Cyclones	37	33	70

Complete Coverage >

That isn't a typo, CU had 9 points at the half. The funny part is that only one of their guys, Thorne, had all 9 of their points at the half!

The story here was the fact we could score. CU had no answer for Brackins as he scored 26 points in 22 minutes. Lucca, Petey, Boozer, and Vanderbeken all had a good day shooting.

As you can see, the difference in the game was in the first half. Did ISU play stellar D? Not exactly, but we played them into their weaknesses. CU did a good job of dribble-penetrating, setting up open jumpers. ISU would collapse and put 2-3 guys on the guy driving, allowing for wide open shots. Fortunately, CU went 4 of 23 in the first half including 0 for 9 from 3. I'd have to think 7 of those 9 were uncontested. When you are able to shoot over 50% in a half, and the other team is shooting 17-18%, you're going to get a big lead.

Not really much to add. It was fun to see the team establish such a big lead that the game is out of reach by the half. Our guys have been playing much harder the past several games and they got a much deserved win. Hopefully they can carry this over into getting a few more wins down the stretch.... We'll see...

[Note by CrossCyed, 02/12/09 12:56 AM CST ] I wish I could have seen this game (curse you Iowa State University and your night classes!). I predicted a few games back that our "best" total game of the year would come against CU in a game I would not be able to attend. Anywho, check out this gloriousness:

Stats by StatSheet.com

Pretty, huh? The game was essentially totally out of reach by just after the first TV timeout in the second half.

In other news, Sean Haluska has 32 fouls on the year, against 19 made field goals.

Also, to heck with freeing Lucca. Free Wes Eikmeier! He logged just 3 minutes tonight in blowout action, and his minutes have steadily decreased.

Stats by StatSheet.com

Who cares if he's having trouble adjusting to the Big 12? His defense may not be the greatest, and his shot may be off as of late, as well as turnover issues, but I want to use my new acronym.....

WELP

The Wes Eikmeier Liberation Project.

via www.journalstar.com, because it's hard to find one of him playing here.

Free these amber waves of hair from the purgatory of the end of the bench. I don't know if Clone Chronicles is the official blog of Wes Eikmeier, but Wes Eikmeier is the official baller of Clone Chronicles.

WELP!

A KenPom Preview: Iowa State #1

rockchalk — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 07:26:54 -0000

Here we go, the fourth go-around of a KenPom preview. I like 'em, and will try and keep on doing them for every game. We'll see how original we can make the content the second time we play these teams (we'll have to figure out soon, considering we play Colorado a week from Saturday), but for now, I like how they work. If you have any suggestions, drop 'em in the comments or email me. My email is at the top of the page on the left sidebar, or at the very bottom in the bottom left corner when you click on that cute, little email image.

For reference purposes, here is Iowa State's KenPom page...

Opening Thoughts

OK, these are the games I hate. Hate, hate, hate. The ones where you know you should win, you know you're the better team. And yet, going in, you find a way to freak yourself out. Going in, you become petrified that, somehow someway, your team will lose.

And, more than anything, games played in the Hilton Coliseum fit in that category. Well, I suppose they didn't fit when Jamal Tinsley and Marcus Fizer and those eighteen, annoying look-a-like white players and Tim Floyd were all up there. Then, it was a legitimate game, a game to get excited about. But not anymore. Now, it's just that one scary venue that you know you could lose at, but you also know you shouldn't.

I hate these games.

Plenty more if you just click on "Continue reading this post >>"...

The Background

The Iowa State Cyclones aren't a good basketball team. They aren't a terrible one, aren't a godawful one. But, they certainly aren't a good one. Mediocre is probably the word that most accurately describes their ability. They lost to a terrible Hawaii team, although it was on the islands and it was only by a point. They lost at home to a much worse Drake squad, and lost by seven at home to South Dakota State. But then, there have been some positive flashes, as well. They beat a pretty damn good Houston ballclub, won on the road against the Valley's best team this year (Northern Iowa in OT) and travelled down to Austin to only lose by eight. Plus, they beat Nebraska, and while at home, Nebraska is better than just about anyone expected. So, that's nice.

But, honestly, this team is not that good. They are incredibly young, though, and certainly could become a good team in another year or two. Three of their top four minute-earners are only sophomores (senior Bryan Peterson being the exception), and all of their depth (not named Alex Thompson or Sean Haluska, that is) are freshmen and sophomores. A team on the rise? Sure. But right now, not a team who is going to be terribly tough. Of course, at home, with all of that Hilton Magic and shit, they can beat a lot of teams.

The Offense

The Cyclones, as KJ-IBT points out, like shooting the three. A lot. 39 percent of their field goal attempts are fired from behind the arc, and the trey accounts for nearly 35 percent of their total scoring. However, when it comes to the Four Factors (nine times out of ten, the factors that determine games; eFG%, Turnover%, Off. Reb%, FTa/FGa -- explanation here), they are terribly hot-and-cold. They are decently effective at shooting the ball, and are really good at not turning the ball over. However, they never-ever get fouled, or at least never shoot free throws, and don't have an offensive rebounding game at all. So, I suppose that's good; my sixth-grade little brother's team could keep these guys off the offensive glass, and heaven knows how much we've struggled with that stuff so far this year.

As far as other extremes go, they are good at picking up assists with their field goals, and it's damn-near impossible for someone to block a shot. Well, we'll see how they do against Cole Aldrich.

Overall, though, they aren't a good offensive team. They are effective enough at making shots and not turning the ball over that they aren't terrible, but their lack of second-chance points and getting to the free throw line essentially forces them to be good at the former two. If they ever have an off night shooting-wise or turn the ball over more than they are used to, they're toast. That's what happened against Missouri; they couldn't hit the broad side of the barn, so they fell behind and just got demolished.

The Defense

Unsurprisingly, they are a much better defensive team than offensive team. Again referring to the Four Factors, they are actually excellent at three of 'em. They are very good at eFG%, meaning they force tough shots. They are incredible at limiting offensive rebounds and they don't foul very often at all. All of this combined with an average performance in turning you over would lead to one of the country's better defenses. Problem is, they are one Division 1's worst at forcing turnovers; forcing them on only 17% of their possessions. They are so good at everything else, though, that they can get by. But, again, this pretty much means they have to be spot-on at everything else. If they're going to win, and not turn you over, that means that they then must completely shut you down on the offensive glass, can't send you to the free throw line very often and can't let you consistently make shots. Any of those things happen, and things aren't looking very hot for the Clones.

Looking at the non-Four Factor stats, nothing jumps out at you. Naturally, given their low turnover-causing percentage, they don't steal the ball, like, ever. And, again expected given their very impressive effective FG%, they are incredible against the two-pointer. They are more forgiving on the three, but they really lock you down inside the arc. This leads their opposition to favor the long ball, as their opponents are shooting, on average, 31 threes a game (NCAA average is 27.6).

Overall, if they win any more games in the League, the D will be why. But unless they can start forcing some turnovers, they won't be able to beat anybody truly good. That offensive rebounding %, though, is scary. We are going to have to hit our shots, because, more often than usual, Cole won't be there to pick us up and give us extra chances.

The Players

When you are discussing Iowa State basketball, the first two words out of your mouth should be "Hilton Coliseum". And then, when asked to name something about this year's squad, you should quickly say "Craig Brackins". Everything, just about, goes through Brackins. He isn't the whole team, though, and they have a couple other, solid pieces. But, if we lose, it'll be because of Brackins. Book it.

Craig Brackins PF -- Damn. The Cyclones run their offense through Brackins on about a third of their possessions. No, seriously. That is good enough for 17th in the entire country. He is, literally, the key to their offense. Which, given his position and height (6'10"), is nerveracking. We ain't sticking Cole on him and letting him pick up fouls, so it'll be on the Morris twins and, perhaps, Mario Little some to contain him. It's possible, and if they can accomplish it, we're essentially assured victory, but it scares me. A lot. Oh, and Brackins takes a helluva lot of shots, too. Nearly 36% of the team's shots, or 13th in the country. Damn. He's the only good player on their team at drawing the contact and getting to the free throw line, too, so there's that. Combining that with the Morris' incredible ability to foul, and that's dangerous.
Lucca Staiger SF -- Dude's a three-point specialist; that's all. No, seriously. He's shot 24 two-pointers, and 110 three-pointers. He's really good at the long ball, though, (43%), so he's worth watching. He's taken all of six free throws all year long, showing how much he drives to the basket. One would imagine Brady would be assigned to simply follow him around everywhere, but who knows.
Diante Garrett PG -- Garrett is a tall-ass point guard, standing at 6'4". He isn't a terribly efficient shooter, though, and isn't a three-point threat. He's a pretty solid distributor, though, and never, ever fouls on the defensive end. I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up guarding Sherron, and his length could pose Sherron some problems. However, on the offensive end, we should be fine. Stick TyTay on him, and he shouldn't get much done. If he can consistently get in the lane, though, we could be in big trouble. He is really good at driving and either scooping it in to Brackins or kicking it out to a three-point shooter, most likely Staiger. Keep him out of the lane, and you shouldn't have a problem stopping their entire offense.
Bryan Petersen SG -- Petersen is the senior, the veteran leader. He's capable of handling the ball if he must, but isn't particularly good at anything. He is their second best three-point shooter, though, so we can't sleep on him out on the perimeter.
Alex Thompson C -- Well, he's really tall. That's about all I've got. He is a pretty good shot-blocker inside, and is an above average defensive rebounder. Besides that, there isn't much else to say. He isn't a very good player, is virtually non-existent on the offensive end. Should provide Cole some leeway to go over and help out on Brackins, because I don't think anyone is too worried Thompson is going to blow up in everyone's face and change the course of the game.
The Rest of the Bunch -- Besides that starting five, the Cyclones use four other players, primarily. You've got senior Sean Haluska, who is another fine shooter from the outside (35% from three), as well as freshman Wes Eikmeier. Eikmeier is even better from the outside (33%, but in twice the shots), although he turns the ball over twice as often as the veteran, Haluska, does. Then, you have another pair of highly similar players. One is junior Jamie Vanderbeken. The other is freshman Justin Hamilton. Well, they really aren't similar in anything, except for the fact that they both stand 6'11". Vanderbeken, being a foreigner, likes to think of himself as a three-point specialist, and he might be right. In limited attempts, he is shooting 40%. However, he is also a pretty good defensive rebounder, and is significantly better than Thompson on the offensive glass. Hamilton is better than both on the offensive end (in fact, according to OR %, he's the best offensive rebounder on the team) and is another soild defensive rebounder. Hamilton's offensive exploits, however, are more limited.

The Gameplan

Here is the newest addition to the KenPom Preview slate; the Gameplan. Basically, these are some of the tactical things I would do if I were so lucky to be NCHCBS. That's National Champion Head Coach Bill Self, if you couldn't follow along. With all of that said, let's get Gameplannin':

Defense

Stick Brady on Lucca -- If the Clones beat us, it'll be either because (A) we can't do shit on offense (we'll get how to do some shit in a second), or (B) they go ballistic from three. The simplest and easiest way to prevent (B) from happening would be to stick your best defensive player, Brady Morningstar, on their primary threat from three. Dur. Now, if the rest of the players step up and have career days, well, then, whatever. But Lucca can certainly drain the threes, so just stick Brady on him and have him run around with him. Follow him through screens, stick his hand in Lucca's face. All of that fun stuff. And, when Brady sits out, pray Tyrel can do a good enough job while Brady rests. I know it's fun to hate on Brady and his deficiencies, but dude is one of the most important players to this team. We need him out on the floor as many minutes as he can go.
Double the Hell out of Brackins -- OK, as much as I love the Morris twins and Mario LIttle, they don't provide a fair match with Brackins. We all know this. So, while I agree with leaving Cole over there on Thompson or Hamilton or Vanderbeken or whoever, Cole should come over and double all of the time. And when he doubles, he needs to reject the hell out of one of Brackins' shots. For fun, you know. Seriously, though, we stop Brackins, they don't know where to go.
TyTay on Diante Garrett = No Lane Access -- I love Tyshawn Taylor. And I realize that he is number 15, and so was Mario Chalmers. But he isn't the same player, folks. Honestly, he might be a better on-ball defender than Mario. Probably night, at least right now, but I would bet in a second he will be better by the start of next year. People forget, with all of the ridiculous steal totals Super Mario posted, that he was almost always assigned to the third-best perimeter player on the other team. His main strength was jumping the passing lanes, and there were few, if any, better at him than that. But, TyTay has all the skills to be a RussRob-type defender, and if he can keep Garrett from driving the lane, the game's basically over right there. Much of their offense is based off the drive-and-kick or the drive-and-dump-to-that-one-good-player-we-have, and if there is no drive, the rest of the hyphenated word can't happen.

Offense

Hit Your Open Threes -- When teams that aren't as talented you matchup, they have to give up some element. And, like in every other game we've played all year, they aren't going to give up some dunks by Cole. No, they'll pack in the lane, and make our perimeter shots beat them. It's not a bad strategy. We aren't bad from behind the line, but we certainly aren't good enough to give up one-on-ones with Cole for fear of us hitting the open three. Brady, who hasn't had a big offensive game in awhile, and Tyrel need to step up on Saturday. Mario Little and Marcus Morris have both shown flashes, and if either one can build off of Monday's performance and show up behind the arc, then great. And we all know Sherron's good for three or four. But one of the white boys has to hit a couple, or the game will be closer than it should.
No Turnovers -- Like we mentioned earlier, the Clones just can't turn you over. Can't do it. Haven't been able to do it all year, except against like SIU-Edwardsville, or random-ass teams like that. Against anyone halfway-competent, they won't take it from you. And with how good the rest of their defense is, it will be damn-near impossible to win against them, particularly in Hilton Coliseum and all of that Hilton Magic junk they've got going on, if you consistently turn the ball over. With our young team, it could be an issue, but I expect the two main ball-handlers, Sherron and TyTay, to be fine. Sure, we'll turn the ball over some, but we might need to keep it under ten. Unless we play really good defense, at least.

OK, that's all. After doing that Gameplan section, there isn't too much room left for keys. I'll try to think of some way to combine the two, or something. Oh, well.

All final thoughts, and a prediction, coming tomorrow in the Open Game Thread. I'll be there, and so should you. Show up.

Anatomy of Stagnation: Longhorns Against Iowa State

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 03:37:40 -0000

Context

After a 17-5 run against Iowa State in the Big 12 conference opener for both teams to stretch a one-point lead at 12-11 to a 29-16 advantage, the Longhorns went through a period of almost three minutes without scoring points of any kind (from 4:25 to 1:41), sandwiched between a Damion James basket and a Gary Johnson put back after an offensive rebound. The Longhorns went 0-5 from the field during that stretch, failing to get to the foul line. Fortunately for the Longhorns, Iowa State scored only six points during that same stretch, which saw the Longhorns compound their problems by committing three fouls. The first foul put Iowa State into the bonus, putting Iowa State on the line after each subsequent whistle against the Horns.

First possession

Following a foul on Clint Chapman that resulted in split free throws by Justin Hamilton, Matt Hill secures the defensive rebound, makes an outlet pass to AJ Abrams, who quickly finds Varez Ward on the perimeter. With no advantage, Ward passes the ball back out to Abrams, who sets up the offense, finding Damion James on the left wing. James quickly hoists an 18-foot jumper in rhythm that rims out off a Connor Atchley screen. Having just made a jumper on the previous possession, it's hard to fault James for this shot, although it was early in the shot clock.

Second possession

Good help defense by Connor Atchley strips Craig Brackens of the ball in the midst of a post move. AJ Abrams comes out of traffic with the ball on the right side of the court. Cutting through the middle, Abrams passes from the left elbow to Damion James beyond the three-point line left side. James takes two dribbles to the middle of the court, taking another jumper from just beyond the free throw line, leaving it short on the front of the rim. Connor Atchley was wide open on the right wing, barely 10 feet away from James, who doesn't see him. Barely six seconds elapsed from the shot clock between the steal by Abrams and the shot by James. Justin Hamilton knocks the ball away from Justin Mason, who nearly secured the offensive rebound. Texas ball.

Third possession

Damion James inbounds from the right side to Justin Mason at the top of the key. Mason passes to AJ Abrams coming off a Matt Hill screen, but Abrams mishandles the pass and turns the ball over.

Fourth possession

AJ Abrams brings the ball up the floor after a made free throw by Diante Garrett. Rick Barnes takes his first timeout of the ballgame, which he would lose if not used by halftime. Good decision by Barnes with roughly three minutes left in the half and the Longhorn offense misfiring on the previous three possessions. Justin Mason brings the ball up the court, finding Abrams on the right wing tightly guarded by Bryan Petersen. Gary Johnson posts up on the right block, but Abrams passes out top to Damion James, who shot fakes, then shoots, looking relatively out of rhythm and leaving the ball short on the front of the rim again.

Fifth possession

Following a Gary Johnson foul, Justin Mason brings the ball up the floor, finding Abrams once again on the right wing. Abrams enters the ball to Gary Johnson, but good defense in the post and good denial by Petersen on the wing force Johnson to catch the ball near the three-point line and close to the baseline. Iowa State immediately sends a double team by Diante Garrett, the man guarding Justin Mason, leaving the non-shooter alone in the opposite corner. Johnson dribbles twice out of the double team, which leaves Johnson, who finds Damion James standing on the edge of the Texas coast, 10 feet beyond the three-point line. Connor Atchley sets a screen at the top of the key as James dribbles left. Stopped by the hedging defender, James finds Atchley at the three-point line, slightly to the right of the top of the circle. The Iowa State defender closes out well, so Atchley dribbles right into a handoff with AJ Abrams, who shoots quickly. Just long off the back of the rim.

Sixth possession

Varez Ward pushes the ball up the court after a nice banker by Diante Garrett, attempting to push the tempo. Ward penetrates right side, getting all the way down to the right block, where he takes a contested and forced five footer that gets a piece of the backboard and the back of the rim. Gary Johnson, on the weak side, gets the rebound and makes the put back, fouled in the process.

Verdict

While watching the game, I thought that James' shots early in the shot clock weren't horrible decisions on his part. With an offense that often struggles in the half court, early shots, if they are reasonably high-percentage looks, aren't negative plays because they come early in the shot clock, therefore lengthening the game and allowing the Longhorns more possessions. In other words, not all bad shots are created equal. A bad shot early in the possession is much less damaging than a bad shot late in the possession since so much more time expires. However, Mike D'Antoni demonstrates that such shots need to be taken with confidence and without fear that the coach will bench a player for a quick shot. Just coming down and jacking up shots isn't the idea, rather, the shot should come within the flow of the offense, which is designed to facilitate such quick shots.

That being said, the Longhorns failed to penetrate to the basket during this stretch, which breaks down the defense, forces rotations, and creates scramble situations for the defense. The first shot for James was a heat check after making his jumper on the previous possession, but the next two probably fall under the category of forced shots. Likewise for the Abrams jumper, when he failed to use a shot fake to give himself an easier look, a consistent problem for Abrams, who seems to believe that he doesn't need a shot fake because he needs so little room to get a shot off. Not true, AJ.

As for the shot by Varez Ward, it was forced, but he still broke down the defense off the dribble, forcing a weakside defender to come over to contest the shot, opening up the offensive glass for Gary Johnson. Basically, Ward took a bad shot, but it wasn't as bad as the shots by James and Abrams because it come off of dribble penetration and gave his teammate a chance for the offensive rebound, which was secured and led to three Longhorn points.

As if the extent of the loss of DJ Augustin needed further illustration, this stretch provides it. Rick Barnes told Augustin last year to hunt his shot if the Longhorns failed to score for three consecutive possessions. In this instance, the Longhorns went five consecutive possessions without making a basket, but had no playmaker to turn to when the drought needed to end. Instead, freshman Varez Ward, not known for his offensive ability coming out of high school, overpenetrates, but draws enough help to allow his teammate to grab the offensive rebound. What the play does illustrate, besides how much losing Augustin hurts, is that dribble penetration is the remedy for many offensive woes.

During the stretch, Iowa State reduced the Longhorn lead from 29-16 to 29-22, a significant move at the end of the half that allowed the Cyclones to keep the game close for most of the remainder of the contest. Had the Longhorns made several of their baskets during this stretch and defended without fouling, they would have taken a significant lead into halftime that may have discouraged any attempts at a comeback in the second half. As a firm believer in the importance of finishing halves well, this was an unacceptable performance over the course of several minutes by the Longhorns and forced them to expend much more energy than they might have had to otherwise.

		#1 Dominique Buckley Sophomore Guard 6-2 \| 205 Detroit, Mich. Buckley played in 25 games as a reserve point guard, averaging 1.3 points and 0.8 assists. He logged a career-high 19 minutes vs. Texas A&M, and tallied five points vs. SIU-Edwardsville and Colorado. Buckley also handed out three assists vs. Iowa, Jacksonville State and SIU-Edwardsville.

		#4 Charles Boozer Junior Guard 6-3 \| 195 Raleigh, N.C. Boozer competed in 23 games, giving Iowa State a lift from the bench. He averaged 2.5 points and 1.6 rebounds; shot 37.2 percent from the field, 29.6 percent from 3-point range and 75 percent from the free-throw line; tallied a career-high 11 points vs. Missouri; and grabbed a career-high seven rebounds while logging a career-high 19 minutes vs. Kansas State. (And no, your eyes do not deceive you. Charles is Carlos Boozer's younger brother.)

		#5 Lucca Staiger Junior Guard 6-5 \| 225 Blaustein, Germany Big 12 Rookie of the Week (12/15/08 and 01/12/09) Staiger started 27 games last season, averaging 8.2 points and 2.2 rebounds. He was Iowa State's top long-range shooter, making a team-high 74 treys in 192 attempts. His 74 3-pointers rank seventh on ISU's single-season 3-pointers made list. Staiger averaged 2.3 3-pointers made per game to rank sixth in the Big 12 and seventh on ISU's single-season list. He made a 3-pointer in 26 of 32 games and had 14 games with three or more treys. Staiger had a streak of 16 consecutive games with a 3-pointer, tying for the third-longest stretch in school history. He scored 14 points behind a 4-of-8 effort from downtown vs. Oregon State and poured in a career-high 24 points on 8-of-11 shooting from 3-point range vs. Drake. His eight treys in that game tie for second on ISU's single-game record chart. Staiger tied a Big 12 mark by making seven treys in the first half vs. Drake, tallied 15 points in his Big 12 debut at Texas, drilled six 3-pointers en route to 18 points vs. Nebraska, posted 14 points behind a 4-of-10 effort from long range at Oklahoma State, and was 5-of-9 from downtown and scored 17 points at Nebraska. His 74 treys already rank 18th in school history.

		#10 Diante Garrett Junior Guard 6-4 \| 185 Milwaukee, Wis. World Vision Classic All-Tournament (2008) NSCA All-American (2008) Garrett was one of the Big 12's top playmakers, ranking third in the league and 36th nationally in assists. He totaled 161 assists to rank 14th on Iowa State's single-season assist chart. One of two players to start all 32 games, Garrett was second on the team in scoring and averaged 3.3 rebounds. He led the team in steals with 30, shot 70.7 percent from the free-throw line, ranked 10th in the Big 12 in assist/turnover ratio, handed out five or more assists in 17 of 32 games, led or tied ISU in assists in 22 of 32 games, recorded two double-doubles and four double-digit assist games, and posted a career-high 26 points at Hawai'i, going 10-for-10 from the free-throw line and marking the 16th time in school history where a Cyclone was perfect from the charity stripe with at least 10 attempts. Garrett dished out a career-high 11 assists vs. Loyola Marymount and Missouri, posted a double-double with 17 points and 10 assists against Oklahoma, notched 17 points vs. Texas Tech and made a career-high three treys vs. UW-Milwaukee, en route to 17 points. He currently ranks 18th on ISU's career assist chart.

		#21 Craig Brackins Junior Forward 6-10 \| 230 Palmdale, Calif. First Team All-Big 12 (2009) First Team USBWA All-District VI (2009) First Team NABC All-District 8 (2009) Basketball Times First Team All-Midlands (2009) AP Honorable Mention All-American (2009) Collegehoopsnet.com HM All-American (2009) Kansas City Star All-Big 12 Improved (2009) Big 12 Player of the Week (2009 - three times) MVP of World Vision Classic (2008) Brackins recorded one of the greatest seasons in Iowa State history, earning first-team all-Big 12 and first-team all-District honors from the NABC, USBWA and Basketball Times. He was named honorable mention All-American by the AP, was the first Cyclone to earn first-team all-Big 12 honors since Curtis Stinson in 2006 and was named Big 12 Player of the Week three times. Brackins averaged 20.2 points, ranking second in the Big 12 and 22nd nationally, and 9.5 rebounds to rank third in the Big 12 and 26th nationally. Along with Blake Griffin and Luke Harangody, he was one of three players in the country to rank in the top 30 nationally in both scoring and rebounding. In Big 12 games, Brackins averaged a double-double, scoring 20 or more points in 11 of 16 conference games. He scored a league-high 348 points in Big 12 games, the 10th-best single-season scoring total in league history; posted 19 20-point games and three 30-point outings; tallied 12 20-point/10-rebound games; led ISU in scoring in 21 of the last 23 games and paced the Cyclones in rebounding in the final 18 games; tallied 15 double-doubles to rank fourth in the Big 12; and ended the season ranking in ISU's single season top 11 in four categories: field goals, points, rebounds and double-doubles. Brackins is only the third player in school history to record 600 points and 300 rebounds in a season. His 645 points as a sophomore ranks second on ISU's class list behind Jeff Grayer, who tallied 684 points in his sophomore campaign. He became the 27th member of the 1,000-point club and just the fifth Cyclone in school history to record 1,000 points in their first two seasons. Brackins scored 18 or more points in a half eight times and tallied a double-double by halftime three times. He scored a career-high 42 points vs. Kansas, making 11 of 19 shots from the floor, 3 of 5 from beyond the arc and 17 of 21 from the charity stripe. The 42 points tie for the sixth-best effort by a Big 12 player in league history and are the fourth-best scoring effort in ISU history. His 17 free throws made tie for third best in ISU history. Brackins registered 38 points, including 23 in the second half, on 15-of-23 shooting from the floor at Houston. His 15 field goals made are tied for third-best all-time by a Big 12 player. He scored 32 points in an overtime victory at Northern Iowa and grabbed a career-high 17 boards vs. Jacksonville State.

		#23 Jamie Vanderbeken Senior Forward 6-11 \| 245 Belleville, Ontario Kansas City Star's Big 12 All-Newcomer Team (2009) Iowa State's top reserve in the post, averaging 5.5 points and 3.0 rebounds in 31 games, Vanderbeken led ISU in 3-point percentage, making 35 of 86 shots from beyond the arc. He averaged 6.3 points in Big 12 play, was second on the team in blocks with 21, made 23 of his 35 treys in the last 14 games, had four games with three or more treys, tallied a double-double in his debut with 14 points and 10 boards vs. UC Davis, was 5 of 7 from the field and scored 12 points vs. Oklahoma, tallied 14 points at Kansas State, posted career highs in points and 3-pointers at Kansas, and was 4 of 5 from 3-point range en route to 12 points vs. Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship.

		#41 Justin Hamilton Sophomore Center 6-11 \| 255 Alpine, Utah Hamilton had a solid freshman campaign, averaging 4.2 points and 2.9 rebounds. He started 18 games, played in 32 contests and led the Cyclones in field-goal percentage, hitting 57 of 100 shots from the floor. His 57-percent clip from the floor ranks 15th on Iowa State's single-season record chart and second on ISU's freshman list. Hamilton tallied 17 blocks last season. In his first career start, he scored eight points and grabbed a career-high 12 boards in a win at Houston. Hamilton posted a career-high 16 points vs. SIU-Edwardsville and scored 13 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the field at Missouri. He recorded eight points and 10 rebounds at Texas, and posted a career-high three blocks vs. Colorado.

		#2 Chris Colvin Freshman Guard 6-2 \| 195 Chicago, Ill. One of the best guards in the Class of 2009, Colvin was ranked as the 99th-best player in the nation and the 15th-best point guard nationally in the Rivals.com rankings. Scout.com ranked him as the 10th-best point guard in 2009 and he was ranked at No. 77 in the ESPNU final ratings. Colvin was named second-team Class 4A all-state a senior by the AP, and averaged 12.3 ppg and 6.2 assists on one of the best and most balanced prep teams in the nation. His Whitney Young team defeated Waukegan 69-66 in the state championship game to finish the season at 26-9 and win the 2009 Illinois Class 4A state title. He had seven points and a team-high six assists in the state championship game, and scored 14, 20, 12 and 17 points in the four previous postseason tournament games. Colvin averaged 14.1 ppg as a junior, earning all-state honors, and started three years at Whitney Young. He was named as one of the best players at the 2008 Reebok All-American Camp and chose Iowa State over Baylor, Florida State, Illinois, Kentucky, Marquette, Providence, USC and Washington State.

		#3 Marquis Gilstrap Senior Forward 6-6 \| 210 Covington, Ga. Gilstrap emerged as one of the best junior college players in the nation in his one season at Gulf Coast, averaging 22.6 points and 10.1 rebounds for one of the biggest surprise teams in junior college. He earned honorable mention All- America honors by the NJCAA, was rated as the 26th-best player in the class of 2009 by ESPN.com, and ranked 10th nationally in scoring and 20th in the nation in rebounding in the final NJCAA statistical rankings. Gilstrap shot 48.3 percent from the field, 40.9 percent from 3-point range and 74.8 percent from the free-throw line at Gulf Coast, was named Panhandle Conference Player of the Year and first-team team all-Panhandle Conference, and was a first-team All-FCCAA honoree. He led his team to a 24-9 overall record and a spot in the state final, where GCCC lost to No. 1-ranked Chipola JC 68-65 to miss out at a chance for the national tournament. Gilstrap also scored 27 points to help his squad defeat No. 3 Miami Dade in the first round of the state playoffs, and averaged 24.6 points and 10.3 rebounds to earn FCCAA All-Tournament team honors. He had seven 30+ scoring games and participated in the 2009 NJCAA All-Star Basketball Classic.

		#12 Alex Dorr Freshman Forward 6-7 \| 215 Norwalk, Iowa Dorr joins the Cyclones as a recruited walk-on. He averaged 20.2 points and 9.3 rebounds while earning Class 3A first-team all-state honors from both the Iowa Newspaper Association and The Des Moines Register as a senior. Dorr led Norwalk to its first-ever state championship game in 2009. The team finished the season with a 24-3 record. He scored 23 points and grabbed nine boards vs. Dubuque Wahlert in the first round of the state tournament, and averaged 18.9 points and 11.2 rebounds as a junior, earning second-team all-state honors.

		#15 Antwon Oliver Freshman Guard 6-5 \| 175 Racine, Wis. Oliver earned honorable mention all-state and third-team all-area honors as a senior, and developed into one of the best players in Wisconsin in his last year, leading his Horlick team to the Division 1 state championship game. He was ranked as the 13th-best player in the state of Wisconsin and averaged 16.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists and hit 45 treys as a senior. Horlick went 24-2 and lost in the state final to Madison Memorial, 56-41. Oliver led his team with 13 points in the state championship game and was invited to play in the 2009 Wisconsin Basketball Coaches Association Boy's All-Star game. He averaged 12.5 points as a junior and 5.1 points as a sophomore.

		#22 LaRon Dendy Junior Forward 6-9 \| 225 Greenville, S.C. Dendy played two years at Indian Hills Community College in Ottumwa, Iowa, and was rated as the 57th-best player in the preseason 2008-09 Juco Junction rankings. He averaged 8.5 points and 6.3 rebounds as a freshman, earning honorable mention All-Region XI honors, but suffered a stress fracture in his sophomore season and saw limited action, averaging 8.1 points and 4.1 rebounds and shooting 63.3 percent from the field in nine games. Ranked as one of the top post players in the Class of 2007, Dendy was rated as the 63rd-best player in the nation and the 17th-best power forward in the Rivals.com Class of 2007, and was the seventh-best player in the Southeast Region in 2007. He originally committed to Clemson, but opted to go to junior college.

		#25 Bubu Palo Freshman Guard 6-1 \| 175 Ames, Iowa Palo is a recruited walk-on. He was the starting point guard on Ames' 2009 Class 4A state championship team, which finished the season with a perfect 26-0 mark. Palo started his last two seasons at point guard, averaged 9.1 points as a senior to earn second-team All-CIML honors, had a 3.34 assist/turnover ratio and shot 52.0 percent from the field. He scored 11 points in Ames' state championship game win over Linn-Mar and was an honorable mention all-conference pick as a junior.