SB Nation - Matt Kleinmann

A KenPom Preview: Texas

rockchalk — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 07:34:51 -0000

Finally, the final regular season game is upon us. This season has whizzed by, and I still catch myself thinking that we've still got another month to go prior to the NCAA Tournament. But, we're already practically there.

Opening Thoughts

This game isn't as big as it was once though to be. Texas was a popular pick to win the Big 12, and while Kansas wasn't expected to win, we were expected to be competitive. An end-of-season trip up to Allen Field House, with potential conference title implications, and CBS went all-in. Of course, it hasn't worked out that way. Texas, until just earlier this week, was still planted firmly on the bubble. And we've already locked up the Big 12, with Saturday's game only deciding if we can become outright champions, or not.

But, that wasn't this game is about. No. With this being the final home game of the season, it's Senior Day. And while it certainly won't be the same, special celebration that it was last year, we've still got Matt Kleinmann graduating. And by God, we will refuse to lose on Matt Kleinmann's Senior Day.

Actual preview-material, game-related I promise, after the jump...

The Background

The background goes back awhile. In 2005, on a senior-laden team stacked with Aaron Miles, Keith Langford and Wayne Simien, the Longhorns waltzed into Allen Field House highly ranked. Along with them came the ESPN GameDay crew, in their first season of doing college basketball games. It ended shortly after, a 90-65 Kansas win. The next year, one of the youngest teams ever, after starting off terribly, made a trip down to Austin with an opportunity to clinch the Big 12 outright. And, again, ESPN GameDay came along for the trip. And, again, the road team was sent packing, 25-point losers, with the Longhorns winning 80-55. Ever since then, every game played between the Longhorns and Jayhawks has been epic.

Epic, I tell you.

It started just a couple of weeks following that second shellacking in Austin, when the two teams met, again, in the Championship Game of the Big 12 Tournament in Dallas. Kansas won, 80-68, in a game that was closer than the score. The next year, the Longhorns made their repeat visit up to the Phog. This time, they brought Kevin Durant along with them, and he went off. I'm talking, the greatest performance I've ever seen, ever, in a college basketball game. Still, in part thanks to Durant missing part of the second half due to injury, Kansas wins, 90-86. But the rivalry was just getting good. 8 days later, the teams met again in the Big 12 Tournament, this time in Oklahoma City. Texas surged ahead to a dominating 32-14 lead, but the Jayhawks slowly climbed back. A clutch Mario Chalmers three late in the game, and Kansas wins, again. Then, there was last year. This time, the game was on Big Monday, and Kansas lost, thanks to a career day by Connor Atchley. But, for the third straight year, the two teams found themselves matched up in the Big 12 Tournament Finals, this time in Kansas City. The Jayhawks used the homecourt advantage, of sorts, to their advantage, and used the best game of Mario Chalmers' life to win late, in what was probably the most well-played college basketball game of last season.

In case you're counting, that's five straight awesome, Instant Classics from this series. This year, with Texas' superiority in talent and experience and depth expected to be overshadowed by the mystique of the Phog, was supposed to be number 6. It hasn't exactly worked out that way, though.

Texas started out fine, lining up OOC wins over Villanova, UCLA and Wisconsin (in Madison). A narrow loss to Notre Dame, which was actually a Top 10 matchup at the time, was excusable, and a loss to Michigan State was almost expected. But then, in Fayetteville, the wheels began to shake off. They fell to the Razorbacks immediately prior to conference play beginning. After a shaky performance at home against the Cyclones, they got wrecked in Norman. A trio of what seemed like bounce-back losses, and then the wagon became completely derailed. They lost three straight to the supposedly weaker Big 12 North (vs. K-State, vs. Missouri, @ Nebraska), and they've never fully recovered.

They seemed to have clinched a ticket, for all intents-and-purposes, this past week with the massive bubble hysteria, but they still aren't where they expected to be.

Still, with another expected Epic Showdown on the way, they can start climbing back towards their lofty preseason expectations on Saturday.

The Offense

Four Factors

eFG% (211th) -- When you think of Texas, what do you think of? Maybe I'm just way off, but I always kind of think of a shot-making team. That is probably due to A.J. Abrams, who just seems like he is within range the second he steps into the gym. But even his eFG% is way, way down from where you might expect it to be. Let's just say, I'm not terribly worried about losing our consecutive game streak of allowing the opposition to shoot higher than 50%.
TO% (31st) -- Again, with all of their point guard issues, you'd expect this to be higher. Much higher. And yet, here it is, one of the better teams in the country at not turning the ball over. A lot of that is because Abrams never, ever turns the ball over; which is probably why plenty of folks thought he could play the point. Of course, maintaining possession is only half the battle; you have to distribute well, too. That's the part he wasn't, and isn't, so hot at.
Off. Reb% (23rd) -- They are a fairly short team, for the most part. With their new, Dogus Balbay-included starting lineup, they are starting 6'7"-on-a-good-day Damion James at the 4. And yet, James' beastitude on the boards is one of the bigger assets this team has. Well, 300-pound Dexter Pittman doesn't hurt, either. No matter how, we need to box the eff out. I don't want them picking up trash for 40 minutes.
FTA/FGA (129th) -- Eh. As long as it isn't Abrams, I'm pretty much fine with fouling anybody, to be honest. Particularly Balbay (39%) and Justin Mason (52%). They are absolutely dreadful, as a team, at shooting the throws.

The Defense

Four Factors

eFG% (45th) -- Good, solid, kinda-sorta-awesome. We'll talk about it later on, in The Keys, but most games just revolve around our ability to hit open shots. We should, by the numbers, see a lot less open looks on Saturday than we did Wednesday night against Tech, but whatever. We can't afford to only hit 30% of them, I know that for sure.
TO% (161st) -- Thank Jesus. A team that doesn't consistently turn you over. As long as we don't go crazy and commit a bundle of unforced errors, we should be fine.
Off. Reb% (140th) -- This is where we can take advantage of the Horns. Our bigs need to be able to feast off of the second-chance points and get the subsequent layups to fall. If we do that, and limit our turnovers to something halfway reasonable, and we win. Even if we can't hit the broad side of the barn.
FTA/FGA (167) -- Nothing useful, here.

The Players

A.J. Abrams (G) -- The most well-known player, he certainly isn't the best player. Still, when he gets hot, like he was to close out their home game against Oklahoma, there isn't anybody in the country who can light it up better. You see, though, that he's cold far more often than he is smokin'. As long as he doesn't Voskuil us to death, and yes that's a term now in the Kansas fans' lexicon, I'm not terribly worried. Brady, one would imagine, would have to guard him. But I swear, Brady's hurt or something, so I'm going to say that T2 gets put on Abrams, at least at the start. Whoever is guarding him, just faceguard the hell out of him on the perimeter, try and force him to use the bounce, and you should be fine. Assuming he isn't Superman, for a day, like Voskuil.

Damion James (F) -- James, on the other hand, is their best player. Hands down. He's a freaking monster on the glass, particularly the offensive glass, so it is paramount we find him and stick an ass on him. I can't tell you how many times I've seen him soar in for putback dunks when he starts from the three-point line when the shot is fired. I don't care if he is at half court, one of the Morris twins (or someone else, I suppose, it's just fun singling out the twins) needs to find him and do whatever it takes, without fouling, from touching the ball. Simple as that. I'll tolerate any potential offense he gives them non-rebounding related; it's going to happen somewhat, but I doubt he explodes or anything.

Dogus Balbay (G) -- Maybe I just haven't seen him play enough, but from what I've seen, I'm wholeheartedly unimpressed with good ol' Dogus. He's pretty good at getting into the lane, and can play D, but can't shoot whatsoever. It isn't your typical, pass-first, drive-second, shoot-third kind of situation. No, it's like, leave him wide, wide open from anywhere beyond 10 feet, and I bet he misses. Dude's shooting 39% from the free throw line. Sherron, on offense and defense, should eat Balbay's lunch. If he does, we'll be fine. If we see the Sherron who showed up in Lubbock, the game will be closer than anyone thought.

Dexter Pittman (C) -- This dude's huge. Like, ginormous. He used to be way bigger, a story that I'm sure you'll hear, for the billionth time, during the telecast. He knows how to use his weight effecitvely, though, and picks up rebounds just because of his sheer size. And, even before Blake Griffin got knocked out with that concussion of his, Pittman was pretty much shutting him down. At least, as much as you can shut down the unanimous best player in the country. Cole should have a bitch of a time down there, so we'll have to be patient. Feed Cole early on, see how Dexter responds. If nothing's happening, and 300+ over here is dominating Aldrich, find somewhere else to go. I'm intimidated of him, to tell you the truth.

Justin Mason (G) -- Dude has had some offensive explosions, but nearly all of those occured out of conference play. Since Big 12 play started, Mason's struggled. He's kind of like their Brady Morningstar, at least with the defensive reputation, so he actually might be the one who is guarding Sherron. In any case, whoever is assigned to him on D should be fine with leaving him to help. If Mason is beating us, then whatever. It just ain't our week.

Rest of the Bunch -- Connor Atchley is tall, can rebound and, most importantly, likes shooting the three (he went 5-5 last year from three against us, and that's ALWAYS the first thing that I think of whenever I read/hear/see his name).....Gary Johnson has been out recently, but he's an awesome rebounder in his own right when healthy; he adds a bunch to their team, and provides a decent mid-range game, too.....Varez Ward is just a ho-hum reserve, freshman guard, providing nothing terribly impressive or impactful......Harrison Smith has seen some recent playing time, but hasn't played enough on the season to be listed on Texas' KP page. So, whatever.

The Keys

1) Open Shots: Drill 'Em -- I'm considering just leaving this the #1 key for all games. I want to statstically confirm this, and maybe I'm just dealing in the realm of obvious-ness, but we win or lose based on our shooting. And our offense is well-run enough, with enough ball movement and sharp passes and drive-and-kicks and etc., that we get approximately the same amount of open looks a contest, adjusted for the opposition's defense. We win if we make above x percentage, and if we don't hit that many, we lose. As simple as that. This is particularly crucial from behind the three-point arc.

2) Speed 'Em Up -- I've left pace out of the keys for the most part, this season, because there isn't a speed we are greatly better at. But, Texas has struggled the most, by far, when the games are fast, and we thrive at home playing up-and-down. So, use Allen Field House to your advantage, get everyone standing-and-clapping-and-hooting-and-hollering, and keep on running. Make Balbay slow it down, or Rick Barnes. Don't get out of control, but don't be shy at taking it in to score if you have an opportunity.

3) Box. The Hell. Out -- Hey, Morris twins, hey. Damion James is as good of an offensive rebounder as you get, for his body type, and is athletic as hell. Find him, stick a body on him, go up and grab the board. Both of you are infinitely better at this stuff than you were at the beginning of the year; show off your improvement tomorrow.

That's all, for now.

We're going to win, I'm fairly certain. Coming off such a terrible, stupid loss, you'd have to think that we're going to come out quite pissed off and angry. And that, combined with the raucous Allen Field House crowd, doesn't bode well for the Horns.

Plus, most of all, it's Matt Kleinmann Day. And we won't lose, no matter what, on Matt Kleinmann Day.

"Hey, This Looks Familiar!" -- How the 2008 Kansas Team Compares to the 2004/2005 Version

rockchalk — Wed, 24 Dec 2008 00:06:16 -0000

Tonight's game against the Arizona Wildcats, being the first road test and all, reminds me a lot of the 2005 contest against Kentucky at Rupp Arena, as that was that year's first road game. That team, just like this one, was jam-packed with youngsters with some veterans mixed in (Aaron Miles and Keith Langford, namely) to make it competitive.

So, that got me thinking about the two teams' rosters. And, after a couple of obvious pair-ups, I figured there were enough similarities between the two squads to make it interesting. Of course, there are some noticeable differences, like there is no one comparable to Cole Aldrich (not by a long shot) on the 04/05 team, but it ends up doing pretty OK overall.

The comparison isn't perfect, but here's what I was able to come up with comparing that 2004/2005 team as it stood on January 9th (remember, Simien is hurt at the time...) to the current unit. We, of course, were undefeated way-back-when in 2005, beat Kentucky and ended up starting 20-0 before falling to Villanova. This year's unit boasts a much-worse record with even less experience, but it is still pretty valid overall.

Comparisons after the jump...

Just remember, though, I am comparing our current players to who these players were in 2004/05. Not who they ended up being, or anything. Keep that in mind. I'm not saying that Travis Releford is the next Russell Robinson; not by a long shot.

Aaron Miles --> Sherron Collins : Obvious. The two leaders of the team, both of which happen(ed) to be point guards.
Keith Langford --> Cole Aldrich : A stretch, given the difference of like 7 inches and the obvious differences in style of play, but both were veterans, so it fits. Yeah. Of course, Langford had been tested on the road prior to this road trip to Rupp, so this one isn't terribly close, but it's the best fit I've got. If Mario would have returned, the comparison would have made a lot more sense, I swear...
J.R. Giddens --> Tyrel Reed : No, Tyrel isn't going to be involved in any stabbing incident, at least I hope not, but this fits nicely. Neither were terribly good defenders, although Tyrel is getting better, while J.R. never seemed to really improve. Both are three-point shooters at heart, though, and both shoot plenty of 'em.
Mike Lee --> Brady Morningstar : The comparison would have fit perfectly, as well as the above one, if Self had decided to start Lee instead of Giddens, but oh well. Morningstar is a lot like Mike Lee, when you think about it; good-but-not-great defender who can knock down the three and move the ball around, but not much else on offense. Also, both are best friends with the point guard leaders of their respective teams.
C.J. Giles --> Marcus Morris : Both uber-athletic forwards who were forced into early playing time because of an immense lack of experience on the front line. Both were, by far, the favorite members of their respective freshmen classes. Let's just hope that Marcus doesn't end up like C.J.
Christian Moody --> Matt Kleinmann : This one is obvious; walk-on senior getting playing time over other, more talented freshmen. Except, Kleinmann doesn't receive playing time except for extreme situations. I suppose that has as much to do with Moody being better than Kleinmann as the superior freshmen, although it's nice to think that this crop of freshmen is better than the one who won four straight Big 12 titles.
Sasha Kaun --> Markieff Morris : This is selling Kieff short, but he fits here more than his brother, and one of the two had to fit in here in this jigsaw puzzle-of-a-comparison. Still, Sasha was better than I remember as a freshman, and both certainly have/had the propensity to get into foul trouble.
Darnell Jackson --> Quintrell Thomas : Sure, Quintrell looks pretty awful for the most part right now, but so did Darnell his freshman year. Both are undersized 4's who played above their height (Darnell obviously did, and Trell should if you trust his scouting report) and were scrappers. Hopefully Quintrell can reach the point that Darnell eventually did; where he had a good enough senior year to make it to the NBA. That would have to be his best case scenario, I'd think.
Russell Robinson --> Travis Releford : The position doesn't fit, but how they're being treated by Self fits perfectly. Both came into KU as High School stars, and were asked to be big-time role players, or glue guys as it were, for the team. Russell had a slow transitition to that role, and it appears Releford is having a similarly slow transitition. However, once it clicked for Russell, he began to play much better and by sophomore year he was a 20-minute-a-night contributor (IIRC). I think the same will happen for Releford, it just might take a little while.

That's the best I could figure. Obviously, I left one quite large name off the list ('05 Alex Galindo and for '08 Tyshawn Taylor), but neither really fit in with any other player on the opposite team. I suppose I could have slid Taylor with Giddens and Reed with Galindo, and considered it, but Giddens' and Taylor's playing styles are just about exact opposites of each other, and they match up terribly with the whole experience thing.

If you have any objections to any of the comparisons, let me know. It doesn't work perfectly, but it is an interesting comparison, given the 04/05 team's future success. Of course, I hope we don't lose to Bucknell in the First Round, but whatever.

"That's More Like It" -- Kansas 71 Temple 59

rockchalk — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 01:31:41 -0000

I know I've missed the past five-or-so basketball games, but the idea is still to recap all of this year's basketball games. And so, here are my assorted thoughts on Saturday's semi-comfortable victory over the Temple Owls. None are terribly insightful, necessarily, but it brings up some interesting discussion topics that we will dicuss plenty more after tomorrow night's game. After said matchup with the Arizona Wildcats, we will be focusing plenty of our attention, when it isn't on holiday dinners and gift-wrapping, on the upcoming bowl matchup with the Minnesota Golden Gophers. However, we will also be discussing plenty of the storylines of the early basketball season, including giving recap-type-features of the key contributors and predictions for the rest of the season.

That was a much, much better performance by Sherron Collins. Even when the game was seriously in question, when they made their mini-run in the first half to tie the game, he continued to run the offense and not simply throw up a contested eighteen-footer off his back foot with :30 left on the shot clock. He only did it once (which was an airball, IIRC), but other than that did a tremendous job of giving the ball to his teammates. There is a big difference between taking the game over and simply taking a lot of shots trying to 'take the game over', and he learned the difference after the UMASS game, it would appear. If he plays like he did on Saturday, we could be going places in March. I just wish he would have kept his haircut...
That is the Tyshawn Taylor that I am expecting to show up every game. He was virtually non-existent against the Minutemen, but he played a big role against the Owls. He is dynomite at getting into the lane, and while he is still struggling with the entry pass, it is getting better.
OK, be honest. Who saw this out of Brady Morningstar? All along, I've acknowledged that, for us to be a contender in March, one of the the White Boys, as I call them, would have to improve big time. Conner Teahan and Tyrel Reed would have to improve on defense or Brady Morningstar would have to come out of the woodworks and be competent on the offensive end. Originally, I expected Tyrel to be the starter, but I suppose I forgot Self's fetish for defense, so it did make sense that Morningstar got the early starts. Still, I was simply waiting for Tyrel or Travis Releford to breakout, sending Brady back to the bench for good. And yet, here we are, on December 23rd, and Brady is firmly entrenched in the Starting 5. He ain't leaving, folks. Only a healthy Mario LIttle could possibly replace him, IMO, and even then, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bill leave the kid out there, at least until Little proves he can play defense. Seriously, though. Brady played perfect D on Christmas the entire gam and knocked down the open shots, namely the huge, momentum-garnering three he nailed at the end of the first half.
On another note, I sure do love me some Morris twins. I personally prefer Marcus to Markieff, but they took their turns yesterday, with Marcus dominating the first half and Kieff taking charge of the second. Marucs' minutes were particularly important, given the immsne foul trouble of our bigs that we'll get into in a second. He had to play the last 10-12 minutes of the first half without rest, and still hustled up and down the court and picked up some fast break buckets. And while Markieff got in far too much foul trouble for my liking (4 fouls in only 16 minutes), he did receive the start and played very well in the second half. Both players are getting much, much better, which is definintely nice to see.
And lastly, I just want to say good job to Matt Kleinmann for his first half performance. He played well in his four minutes of important action, but I'd rather not see him out on the floor in any capacity other than simply finishing out a blowout. Cole Aldrch, especially, needs to stay out of foul trouble, but Quintrell Thomas is the one who needs to improve on something. I mean, two fouls on illegal screens? How long have we been setting screens, second grade? Bill was obviously pissed off at him, too, as seen by his complete lack of playing time in the second. And how do we get this far along in this recap-type-thing without even mentioning another double-double by Big Cole. The kid puts up so many, it's hardly newsworthy anymore.

On a similar note, anyone know the Kansas record for most double-doubles in a season? I would have to imagine it would be Wilt Chamberlain who holds it, but I bet that Cole has a good chance to break the post-1960 record.

Plenty on the AZ-KU matchup coming later tonight (maybe) and tomorrow...