SB Nation - Jeff Adrien

Player Previews: The Time is Now for Steven Gray

Zach B — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 18:02:43 -0000

Steven Gray will be relied on greatly in 2009-10. While he came to Gonzaga as a sharpshooter, his skills now may be better fit for a more complete role.

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When we talk about the strengths and weaknesses of this year's Gonzaga team, there is no doubt that the experience lies in the backcourt. Specifically, two players in that backcourt will be looked upon to be leaders of this very young team. Matt Bouldin is obviously the face of this team but there is one more player that must step up this season for the Zags this season and that is Steven Gray. Gray, a junior shooting guard came to Spokane from the Seattle area with plenty of hype as he was part of that vaunted 2007 recruiting class. Now, as he is about to begin his third year at Gonzaga, Steven's role will certainly be increased a great deal. The question I think that most Gonzaga fans have now is how will he react to the pressure that will come with this season. While it is impossible to question the talent that Gray has, last year was a difficult one for him. He struggled throughout the season to find a consistent rhythm and battled a nagging hand injury that really affected his abilities as the sharpshooter that we all saw his freshman year.

While injuries are never a good thing, especially ones that have such a direct effect on a player's strength, Steven's hand injury seemed to force him to attack the rim more and use his size and speed to create his own shot. A great example of this and one that we often point to was the game against Connecticut in the Battle in Seattle. His best game in a Gonzaga uniform, Gray was the one consistent force all day long and put the team on his back as Austin Daye and Josh Heytvelt were in foul trouble and guards Matt Bouldin and Micah Downs were largely ineffective. Steven attempted 16 field goals that day and connected on ten of them. He finished with 23 points and only one of those made buckets was from three-point range. He had no trouble getting to the rim and used great body control to make shots. After that game, Steven seemed to have turned a corner and started playing good basketball but the hot streak didn't last and his contributions as well as his time on the court really started to deteriorate. As we look towards this season and what this team needs Steven to be, I hope that he is able to watch that film of the UConn game and realize that if he can do that against Connecticut which at the time had Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien and many other skilled big men, he can do it against anyone.

Looking back on last season's production for Steven Gray, it is pretty safe to say that he came into the season with huge expectations after a very stellar freshman campaign. Although he didn't play the first ten games of that season, he immediately became an integral part of the offense upon his return. He filled his role well and finished his first year at Gonzaga with a three-point shooting percentage of 46%. His performance in Gonzaga's first round match up against Davidson made Zag fans salivate at the thought of his potential. He connected on seven threes and finished with 21 points and looked to be the only Bulldog guard interested in playing that day.

Steven played in every game his sophomore season but he only averaged .4 minutes more per game than his freshman year. He was constantly battling Micah Downs for time on the court and the two typically wound up splitting the time pretty equally. This seemed to greatly affect Gray's consistency throughout the season. For example, after the Connecticut game, he went on a nice little run where he scored in double figures six of the next nine games but after that, quality offensive games were few and far between. In fact, he was only able to get in to double figures four of the next 15 games. The cause of this poor production is difficult to decipher because it wasn't like he was out there casting up three-point shots. There were some games where he would shoot five or six a game and connect only on one but, overall, most of the time he only attempted two or three and would soon disappear from the flow of the game. We've talked about his slump but it is worth noting that all of his percentages went down pretty drastically from his freshman to sophomore year. His three-point and free-throw percentage both dropped more than ten percent from '07 to '08.

One of the main things that has always been a point of contention when people discuss Steven is his attitude on the court. Gonzaga has always been a school that has produced emotional players. Whether it was because they played with that mid-major chip on their shoulder or they were just a little off mentally, people that leave the Gonzaga basketball program tend to have no issue letting emotions fly. This is a big reason why the program has been so effective in the past. When you have emotional players, they have no reservations about making impulse plays and taking over when the need arises. When we look at Steven Gray's overall demeanor on the court, it is obvious that he is very reserved. He has a very laid back persona that I think is fine when you are a freshman or sophomore on a team full of veterans. But now that he is a junior on a team where he is now one of the elder statesmen, that mentality is no longer acceptable.

I honestly believe that Steven's production will be a direct link to the type of attitude he brings on the floor. If we see his three-point attempts increase from last year's total of 142, I think he'll be in for another difficult year. The key for him, like I said in the opening, is to avoid becoming one-dimensional and merely relying on the three-point basket. For this to happen, I think there has to be an understanding among the coaches about the kind of player Steven is. When he was recruited during high school, his best assets were his ability to move without the ball and come off screens and nail the mid-range or deep jumper. Often times last season he became a spot up shooter and he never seemed to get into the rhythm of coming off a screen like we saw in his freshman season. His mid-range game will be great to this team when you consider that guys like Matt Bouldin, Manny Arop, Grant Gibbs, Meech, and GJ all feel more comfortable getting to the rim. Steven also has the ability to get to the rim and I feel like that will best be utilized when he is moving without the ball and creating mismatch opportunities due to his size. Another avenue which he can take when creating his own shot is by using the pump fake. When coaches (especially in the early season) game plan for Gonzaga, they will have to account for Gray's ability to knock down the jumper and I think that opposing teams will be so dedicated to getting a hand in his face that he will be able to throw in a pump fake and get himself into the lane.

Besides Matt Bouldin, I don't think their are any greater expectations on an individual player's shoulders than there are on Steven Gray. If you asked most die-hard fans of the program, they would not see it as unreasonable to expect him to be in the running for leading scorer on this team. His shooting stroke, size, and deceptive quickness should make him one of the toughest match ups in the conference and hopefully by the end of the year, he will be one of the toughest in the nation.

Meet Maurice Walker - The Player Every Georgetown Fan Has Been Waiting For

Hire Esherick — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 14:16:25 -0000

via www.torontoobserver.ca

How many times over the past seven years have you wondered what a Georgetown team would be like if they just had a bruiser? Ever since the departure of Mike Sweetney, Georgetown has been missing some toughness and roughness in the paint. Sure Roy Hibbert held his own, but he was no DeJuan Blair or Jeff Adrien. All our Big East rivals are landing the players that put Georgetown in the national spotlight 25 years ago. But times are a changing, I hope...

Meet Maurice Walker, a 6'10'' center out of the Class of 2010. Maurice hails from the great country of Canada and ESPN states that he is very strong and not afraid of contact. When was the last time you heard that about a Georgetown recruit? Hoyaballa reported last month that Maurice was set to visit Georgetown in September, but that has not been confirmed. Regardless, Northstar Basketball is projecting that Maurice will commit to Georgetown, below is an excerpt from their report:

Maurice Walker, C, 6'10, Brewster Academy (NH)
Favorite: Georgetown
2nd in Line: Pitt
3rd in Line: Texas A&M
Watch Out for: Virginia Tech, Kansas
After playing his high school ball in Canada, the big man came to Brewster Academy for a PG year, and thus far it seems he has made a sound decision, as numerous high-major programs are on his trail. Walker has previously stated that Georgetown, Pitt, and Texas A&M are his top three, and Virginia Tech has been involved for a while. Kansas is another school that has taken notice of the low post player. It may be tough for Texas A&M to maintain the high standing with Walker, as the Aggies already have commitments from two class of 2010 big men in Tobi Oyedeji and Daniel Alexander. Mark Turgeon and Co. are definitely in play though. Georgetown may well be the favorite here. A program that has a history of producing NBA big men and one that has been quite successful under John Thompson III, the Hoyas seem to be in search of another big man to go along with Nate Lubick. Pitt is another program that is hoping to add a post player to its class of 2010, and the Big East is intriguing to a lot of top-notch prospects, such as Walker. Virginia Tech is another option here, and Kansas should never be discounted for any prospect.

He might not be at the top of the radar for the big recruiting powerhouses but that is fine by me, JT3 seems to get the most out of players who do not come in with national accolades.

Take the Northstar report was a grain of salt, however. Their report did not even mention Georgetown as a school in the running for Roscoe Smith, who recently narrowed his list of schools to Georgetown, Duke and UConn.

Good talk.

Wednesday Notes: Ilyasova stars, Alexander works, De Colo and Adrien visit, draft rumormill

Frank Madden — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 03:20:32 -0000

Hey, it's real basketball: Ilyasova leads Barca to a 2-1 edge over Tau

ACB.com: Ilyasova stars as Barcelona down TAU Ceramica. The Spanish best-of-five finals continued with Barcelona seizing a 2-1 edge this afternoon in Catalonia. And after seeing fairly limited PT of late, former and possible future Buck Ersan Ilyasova got back to his best with 19 points (7/11 fg), nine boards and three assists in 25 minutes. Check out the game highlights above. Barcelona can clinch the Spanish title on Thursday afternoon at home. Also, Tom Enlund mentioned the other day that the Bucks are expected to make Ilyasova a qualifying offer, but don't read much into it. Ilyasova's QO is dirt cheap (about a mil) and he'd never take it, so it's purely meant to prevent Ilasyova from becoming an unrestricted free agent. The Bucks have had to make the QO the previous two summers as well, so it doesn't mean his return is suddenly imminent. Let's wait to see what happens with the draft and the Sessions situation first.
BUCKS.com: De Colo, Adrien headline potential second rounders. The Bucks didn't have any big names in on Monday, but two guys with definite second round potential did make it to the Cousins Center--UConn mini-bruiser Jeff Adrien and French point guard Nando De Colo. Adrien you might know from his four years in the Big East, where he was a poor (and skinny) man's DeJuan Blair--the same height, wingspan and standing reach...except 40 pounds lighter. If the Bucks go small at #10 then Adrien could certainly make some sense at 41. Meanwhile, De Colo made his second visit in two weeks, hot on the heels of an excellent showing at the Reebok Eurocamp in Italy. Dave Babcock, what say ye?

"He was here a couple of weeks ago. We liked him, but he didn’t have a chance to play against a point guard in that workout. So we brought him in today to go against McAlarney. Nando’s a good player. He’s another potential second round guy, so he’s got a chance."

I don't know anything about De Colo aside from the Jonathan Givony and Chad Ford scouting reports, but those seem pretty promising. Both came away very impressed by De Colo's performance in Italy, and we can only assume the Bucks have a more than passing interest given they've had him in twice now. Ford offers the dirt:

Scouts love his size and swagger, and he really shot the lights out during camp, making 65 percent from the field. While those who watched him in France all year worry he lacks the lateral quickness to defend the quicker guards in the NBA, he seemed to hold his own against Mills and, to a lesser extent, Beverley. De Colo was the other guy who looked like he could be a legit late-first-round prospect, with a few caveats. First, the word in the camp was that De Colo might have jumped the gun and signed a pro contract in Europe, which could keep him out of the league for a few years. Second, several GMs wanted to go back and take a closer look at his game film from this year. De Colo was up and down all year, and they want to get a better look at how his season went.

But overall, no one helped his stock more than De Colo. He went from a borderline second-round prospect to getting some legit buzz in the late-first to early-second rounds.
Bucksketball: Workout Reports. Jeremy has a nice compilation of the notable guys who have worked out in Milwaukee.
Enlund: What about the second round? There's nothing more enjoyable than overanalyzing Dave Babcock's draft commentary, so with that in mind here's today's soundbite:

"A couple weeks ago I would have said that I don’t know if there’s going to be a guy there we like, but I’m starting to feel better now that there might be," said Bucks director of player personnel Dave Babcock. "Just from what we’ve seen and then a couple of the guys that stayed in the draft will affect it. And, what we’ve seen in guys that we may not have been as high on earlier, we feel better about now."

So the Bucks are starting to like one of the guys they worked out? Off the top of my head, Pendergraph, De Colo, Carroll, McNeal, and Adrien come to mind as the obvious candidates. Which means they're probably picking some random dude I've never heard of.
Gardner: Alexander back in the gym. Joe Alexander's 08/09? Disappointing. No one has debated that including, Alexander himself. The good news? The dude has always thrived when people write him off.

"Joe walked in the gym and the first thing I noticed was how much bigger and stronger he had gotten," said Hammond. "We know that about Joe. We know that Joe is not going to sit and accept his fate. It doesn’t matter if it was something that happened extraordinarily well for him, he’s not going to accept that. That’s not good enough for him. Or, maybe in this case, where he looks back on the season and says I’m not happy with the result and you know when he comes back, he’s going to have changed."
I asked Scott Skiles in Vegas last summer if they specifically wanted Alexander to bulk up to play PF, but he said no--it wasn't the kind of thing he believed in doing. So maybe Alexander's taken it upon himself to again hit the weights or maybe Hammond is pumping Alexander up a bit in case they decide to move him this summer. Personally I hope he sticks around. His value right now is so low that he's not going to bring back much in a trade, yet he's hardly a lost cause. He's not going to be a star, but the tools and work ethic are there to be a contributor. At least that's what I'm telling myself.

Loud Links: June 7, 2009

daddydai — Sun, 07 Jun 2009 22:13:24 -0000

Loud Links are back! So Rubio will visit the States with his mother, but will not workout for anyone? The more I hear about Rubio the less I like this kid. Especially when you consider the consensus #1 pick, Blake Griffin, is making all the appropriate stops to showcase his talents. Blakey even volunteered to do a three ball dribbling drill for the Clippers. That is the kind of heart that we need in our players.

The Daily Thunder wrote a great two-part article about what the Thunder needs to contend for a title. Overall the article has me more interested in Harden (could that be possible?) or Stephen Curry. Speaking of Curry, did you know Curry, Griffin, and Hansbrough are NBA bloggers? The Boston Globe also has a nice article about Jeff Adrien.

NBA.com: International players under NBA microscope at Eurocamp
It's not just NBA teams that love the Eurocamp, it's the European teams too. They flock here in droves, representing all of the most powerful franchises in the continent, often with open checkbooks looking to sign the next promising talent.

DraftExpress: 2009 Reebok Eurocamp: Day One
Day one mostly revolved around catching up with the various members of the basketball industry, all of which seem to be out in full force. As Angelico Biella’s General Manager Daniele Baiesi told us in our Eurocamp preview on NBA.com, this is a perfect setting to mix watching players in with business, and indeed we’re hearing plenty of chatter coming from the direction of the bleachers with agents peddling their players, teams looking for prospects to sign, and old friends catching up on their experiences from the past season.

Blake Griffin impresses in workout for Clippers - Los Angeles Times
"It felt all right. I wish I could have shot a little better," he said. "I was a little tight out there. But overall it felt good. . . . I'd really like to just come in and fill a gap that they don't have. They have a great cast of veterans and a great group of young guys. I think we can definitely turn it around and start winning."

Call Me 'Hopeful' in NBA Blogs
Hey, what’s up everybody? This is Blake Griffin, a 2009 NBA Draft hopeful. I’m excited about the opportunity. I’m just working out right now and looking forward to fulfilling a dream of being able to play in the NBA.

NBA.com: Clippers take first official look at Griffin
Griffin's handling three basketballs as part of a dribbling drill, his final trick before finishing the hour-long session, was what got the attention of his possible future boss. "The last part was something you probably don't see too often from a 6-10 guy, doing two ball and three ball ballhandling drills. I thought we'd save that part for last," Dunleavy said.

How the Thunder can contend for a title | Daily Thunder.com - Where Thunder Happens
Ok, stop laughing. I am not talking about next year, but about a long term approach to team building that puts the Thunder into the upper crust of NBA teams competing for the golden trophy. The concept is very simplistic, but in some regards that’s the beauty of it. Keep it simple right? Easy to understand is always better than complex for me.

How to contend pt.2 | Daily Thunder.com - Where Thunder Happens
The idea in part 1 was that in order to become an upper crust team, a team needed to field a group of scorers that consisted of either two class Class A scorers, and surround them with specialists(see Shaq-Kobe or Shaq-Wade, 2nd Three-Peat Bulls) or field a team with one Class A scorer, and two Class B scorers, then fill in around the edges.(Ginobili-Duncan-Parker, Jordan-Pippen-Grant, Dantley-Thomas-Dumars, Hamilton-Billups-Sheed). A class A scorer is a player who has his points per shot in the 1.3 range and above. A class B scorer is between 1.2 and 1.29. And both of these have to include shooting the ball around 12 times per game or above.

Job Interviews in NBA Blogs Tyler Hansbrough
I'm here in Chicago for the Pre-Draft camp and we're going through some live drills here for NBA teams. We're doing some testing and I'm getting a little more familiar with the NBA process. We're getting measured ... weighed ... they wanted our wingspan and our standing reach.

Things Are Working Out So Far in NBA Blogs Stephen Curry
I went up to Chicago for the Draft Combine last Monday. I got a chance to go to the gym a little early to get some shots up with some of Tim Grover's guys. He was the one hosting the combine at his facility. I got a chance to work out and get some shots up. Then Wednesday came and all the guys came into Chicago. It was good to see everybody that I've watched and heard about. And we were all in one spot.

He feels NBA is within reach - The Boston Globe
Ex-Brookline High star Jeff Adrien had a solid career at the University of Connecticut after it took a chance on him. Now the bruising power forward is hoping the same thing can happen in the NBA. While UConn star center Hasheem Thabeet was in the spotlight, Adrien quietly averaged 13.6 points on 50.5 percent shooting from the field, plus 9.9 rebounds and 1.2 blocks as a senior last season. But while Thabeet is projected to be a top-three draft pick, Adrien is projected as a second-rounder in the 40-60 range.

Something Left to Prove - Basketball News & NBA Rumors -
Hansbrough put together one of the most prolific collegiate basketball resumes in the history of the game, breaking an abundance of UNC, Atlantic Coast Conference and NCAA records along the way. Despite his remarkable consistency and record-breaking productivity at arguably the top basketball program in the country within possibly the best basketball conference in the land, Hansbrough is projected to be a late-first round pick in this month's NBA Draft. Having to prove himself to his critics despite his previous successes, however, is nothing new to Hansbrough.

NBA referees must use judgment | NewsOK.com
Most agree this has been one of the more entertaining NBA playoffs in recent years except for one thing — officiating. But NBA referees are probably doing a better job than given credit.

NBA: Inside scoop | NewsOK.com
Teenage point guard Ricky Rubio will visit the United States with his mother for a tour that begins June 13. Rubio plans to visit Memphis, Oklahoma City, Sacramento and New York but will not work out for any team.

NBA: A look at technical fouls | NewsOK.com
Oklahoma City led the league in one category — fewest technical fouls. The Thunder was assessed only 11 technical fouls, edging Minnesota (14) and Washington (15).

NBA has most complaining | NewsOK.com
A lot of pro athletes complain to officials. They’re competitors. They want a fair shake. That’s understandable. Any guess how many technical fouls were assessed this past season in the NBA? A lot.

Breaking Down Glendale: #1 UConn Huskies vs. #3 Mizzou Tigers

Cory Williams — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 18:38:45 -0000

Today's Elite 8 matchup in Glendale matches the top ranked Connecticut Huskies against the Missouri Tigers, a team that dropped 102 on Thursday night against Memphis.

Next Game

Missouri Tigers
@ Connecticut Huskies

Saturday, Mar 28, 2009, 1:40 PM MST
NCAA Tournament - West Regional Final - University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Complete Coverage >

Missouri was a fun team to watch, playing high energy basketball without committing cheap fouls. Their defense is difficult to break, but their lack of height is a big concern going into this matchup.

UConn features 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet, who has been awarded the Big East Player of the Year and the Defensive Player of the Year, while also being annointed an All-American just in 2008-2009.

Last season, he was the National Defensive Player of the Year, not to the mention the Big East equivalent of the award as well (which makes sense).

Connecticut isn't a one-trick pony, however. Loaded with experience, they feature a starting lineup loaded with seniors including Jeff Adrien and A.J. Price.

The Huskies aren't willing to overlook Missouri, knowing full well just how potent their brand of basketball is. “Yeah, it’s exciting. Playing a good team from the Big 12 gives us bragging rights," said Adrien on Friday. "It helps us with recruiting too and it’s also a trip to Detroit. We’re very excited to play Missouri.”

While playing for a Hall of Fame coach in Jim Calhoun, the Huskies always are being expertly coached and guided on the court.

“It is good for a coach to be hard on you; when he is not, then you have to worry. You want to go to a great program where the coach is going to get on you," Huskies forward Stanley Robinson explained. "It is good for a coach to be hard on you I think.”

From the Missouri bench, we heard from DeMarre Carroll, who has a chip on his shoulder from the lack of respect the mainstream media has given the Tigers.

“We won the Big-12 and we’ve had an easy road and everybody is saying we can’t and we use that as motivation. We have a chip on our shoulder and I think every time we go out there we listen to the analysts on ESPN that say this team is going to win and we use that as motivation," Carroll stated.

"We like to be under the radar and be the underdogs in every event. We are just going to keep going out and doing what we are doing and hey, we are going to win a national championship and then we’ll see what else they say we can’t do.”

Bold words from a great player. The elite 8 is shaping up to be an epic matchup in Glendale, and House Of Sparky will be there, bringing you postgame coverage afterwards.

UConn: Know (Some More About) the Team Standing Between Mizzou and the Final Four...also, Links!

Bill C. — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 14:57:33 -0000

As we wait for the mid-afternoon tip-off, let's take a look at how UConn has done thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Consider this the companion piece to this week's earlier UConn preview.

But first...some Saturday morning Mizzou-UConn links!

(And just so you know, this post got much longer than I intended. Get comfortable.)

TheUConnBlog.com: Everybody cross your fingers and pray: #1 UConn vs #3 Missouri Preview
Hartford Courant: UConn-Missouri: Who will set the pace?
The Trib: Underdog is here

Calipari said Thursday that Missouri should take the same approach into today’s game against the even more heavily favored Huskies.

“You have to go in with the mind-set they went in with today, which is, ‘We can beat these guys,’ ” Calipari said. “I think what they did to us today in the first half, every 50-50 ball they got, every rough play, hands-on bumps, they just made those plays. … You are going to have to go in against a tough Connecticut team and do the same.”
The Trib: Avoid the long arm of Thabeet
The Trib: Game a study in contrasts
The Missourian: Missouri players keep mood light at NCAA Tournament
The Missourian: Connecticut's Thabeet big obstacle for Missouri
KC Star: This is a magical moment for Missouri
KC Star (Posnanski): This Missouri team is hard to hate
You probably know that Bill James, baseball writer extraordinaire, is an intense Kansas basketball fan. It is one of the obsessions of his life. He grew up in Kansas, went to school at Kansas, lives in Kansas, and he will refer to the Jayhawks as “we.” And as a Kansas fan, he takes very seriously all of his Jayhawk responsibilities.
“I hate Missouri basketball with a bottomless passion,” he says.

So, OK, Kansas fan hates Missouri? Great. News flash. What’s the point?

Only this: “I love this Missouri team,” Bill James says.
The Maneater: Missouri ready to outrun UConn's Thabeet
PowerMizzou: Thabeet presents big challenge to Tigers
PowerMizzou: Lawrence is just one step away
StatSheet.com: AP preview
Post-Dispatch: Missouri sizes up UConn's big man in NCAA Tournament
Post-Dispatch (Burwell): Young Tigers go old school
Post-Dispatch (Burwell): A little luck, Denmon says
Post-Dispatch (Bernie): MU team carries hopes of so many old Tigers
Upon Further Review: Thoughts from a Mizzou afterglow

Oh yeah, and...

The Trib: 'Bama hires VCU's Grant

Okay, NOW to UConn/Purdue...stats after the jump...

UConn vs Purdue

NCAA Basketball Stats

	UConn	Purdue
Points Per Minute	1.80	1.50
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.04	0.86
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.29	0.91
2-PT FG%	45.8%	41.9%
3-PT FG%	37.5%	26.1%
FT%	63.3%	54.5%
True Shooting %	52.0%	42.3%

	UConn	Purdue
Assists	19	12
Steals	6	7
Turnovers	13	9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	2.11

	UConn	Purdue
Expected Offensive Rebounds	13	16
Offensive Rebounds	14	9
Difference	+1	-7

This game was basically played at UConn's favorite pace, and while the UConn offense was alright--52.0% true shooting, 1.92 BCI--it really wasn't much better than alright.
What made this game for the Huskies was complete and utter dominance on the boards. If you've been paying attention to my "Expected Offensive Rebounds" number, you've seen that anything over about +3 or +4 is a pretty big rebound margin. UConn was +8. Somehow Mizzou needs to figure out how to stay within +3 or +4 to have a chance. Good luck with that.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Hasheem Thabeet (7'3, 263, Jr.)	18.87	0.52	15 Pts (on 7 shots), 15 Reb (4 Off), 4 Blk, 4 TO
Craig Austrie (6'3, 176, Sr.)	17.97	0.56	17 Pts (on 6 shots), 2 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 TO
A.J. Price (6'2, 181, Sr.)	11.91	0.35	15 Pts, 4 Reb, 7 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO
Stanley Robinson (6'9, 210, Jr.)	11.01	0.30	10 Pts, 11 Reb, 2 Ast
Kemba Walker (6'1, 172, Fr.)	9.21	0.46	5 Pts, 3 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl
Jim Veronick (6'8, 200, Sr.)	0.79	0.79	1 minute
Jeff Adrien (6'7, 243, Sr.)	0.67	0.02	8 Pts (on 13 shots), 6 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 TO
Gavin Edwards (6'9, 234, Jr.)	-0.22	-0.02	2 Pts
Donnell Beverly (6'4, 190, So.)	-0.79	-0.39	2 minutes
Scottie Haralson (6'4, 215, Fr.)	-0.79	-0.79	1 minute

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Craig Austrie was insanely good against the Boilers. If UConn wins this game, I have the feeling we'll remember Austrie's or AJ Price's performance as much as we remember Hasheem Thabeet's, even if Thabeet is getting all the headlines (seriously, how many of those links above were about Thabeet and only Thabeet?).
Offensively, Thabeet was about as good as he can be--he averaged over 2 points per FG attempt and grabbed 4 offensive rebounds. Thabeet's major big-man counterpart, Jeff Adrien, was highly ineffective against the Boilers, but he's still been quite good overall in the tourney. One thing to notice, however, is that Thabeet and Adrien combined for 7 turnovers. I like that number. I like 8 or 9 even more.

UConn vs the NCAA Tournament

	UConn	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.23	1.44
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.24	0.80
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.45	0.89
2-PT FG%	57.0%	40.2%
3-PT FG%	33.3%	22.2%
FT%	65.6%	65.8%
True Shooting %	59.0%	40.9%

	UConn	Opp
Assists/Gm	22.3	13.3
Steals/Gm	7.0	5.0
Turnovers/Gm	10.7	11.7
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.75	1.57

	UConn	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	12.3	15.7
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	14.3	10.0
Difference	+2.0	-5.7

Clearly these numbers are somewhat skewed by the first round game against Chattanooga, but you can still see what UConn's modus operandi is: ball control and rebounding. If Mizzou's jumper is cold, they're probably screwed.

Player	AdjGS/Gm	GmSc/Min	Line
A.J. Price	15.89	0.51	20.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 3.0 TOPG
Hasheem Thabeet	15.27	0.60	13.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG (3.0 Off), 2.7 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 2.3 TOPG
Stanley Robinson	13.91	0.41	15.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG (2.7 Off), 1.0 APG
Jeff Adrien	11.06	0.36	14.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG (3.7 Off), 2.3 APG, 1.0 BPG, 2.7 TOPG
Craig Austrie	10.16	0.35	7.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.7 SPG
Kemba Walker	9.98	0.44	7.7 PPG, 2.7 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.3 SPG
Gavin Edwards	6.33	0.40	5.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG (1.7 Off), 1.0 APG
Donnell Beverly	3.76	0.94	3.0 PPG, 1.7 APG
Jim Veronick	1.18	1.18	3 minutes
Scottie Haralson	0.31	0.10	9 minutes
John Lindner	-0.05	-0.03	3 minutes
Jonathan Mandeldove	-0.21	-0.10	4 minutes
Johnnie Bird	-0.21	-0.14	3 minutes

With Beverly only playing a few minutes a game, UConn's been playing with a 7.5-man rotation in the tournament. If the game is played at UConn's pace, and there are a lot of whistles, Missouri will be facing a majorly up-and-down battle. But I have the feeling they'll be sprinting the ball down court after every UConn basket (and miss) and trying to beat UConn's bigs to the basket and wear UConn's guards out. It's not a guaranteed success, clearly, but if they can do that a few times, and if there aren't a ton of stoppages, UConn will be clutching their shorts just like Memphis was.
Austrie, Thabeet and Price have been combining for eight turnovers a game in the tourney. Make that 10-12, and Mizzou is in serious business.

Keys to the Game

Pace. Consider the number of possessions the same way you consider the speed limit--70 could be a major benchmark. If Mizzou sucks UConn into speeding, Mizzou is in control--over 70 is a Mizzou advantage, way over 70 a major Mizzou advantage. Under 70, and UConn is probably going to win. Missouri is capable of winning slower games--their three Big 12 Tourney wins only averaged in the mid-60s. But with UConn's halfcourt prowess, the speed and transition game will be huge, not only because UConn is a thin team, but because UConn is a BIG team that has a length and size advantage in the halfcourt.
DeMarre & Leo's Points Per Shot. A high points-per-shot figure means one of two things: 1) either you're shooting a very high % from the field, or 2) you're drawing fouls and making free throws. DeMarre and Leo (and the team as a whole, clearly) will have to either shoot very efficiently or draw some fouls for Mizzou to score enough points today. That 17-foot jumper has to be going through the net. If it's not--if either or both of them start out pretty cold (because you know they'll both take a couple mid- to long-range jumpers pretty quickly--they always do), and if Mizzou isn't drawing fouls off of Thabeet and/or Adrien, then Mizzou might find themselves in trouble because, well, they will get outrebounded in this game.
The last five minutes of the first half. The rules for Missouri games have somewhat changed in the NCAA Tourney--until a week ago, the goal for Missouri was not to find themselves down big at half, then watch the opponent melt down in the second half. Now, it's been "kill 'em in the first half, hold on for dear life in the second." Whichever of the two trends emerges against UConn, the last five minutes of the first half (or, roughly speaking, Round 5 of the 10-round fight) will determine the way the second half unfolds.

In Mizzou losses, opponents have sprinted to the finish and turned an 8-12 point Mizzou deficit into a 15-19 point deficit. In the NCAA Tourney, it's been the exact opposite. If Mizzou's bench comes ready to play, they can take advantage of a UConn lineup that's breathing pretty heavily, so I guess you could say that a big first-half performance from Kim English, or Marcus Denmon, or Justin Safford, or Laurence Bowers, or more than one, could make the game for Mizzou.

Prediction

As I've mentioned before, I tend to try to project a pace and a Points Per Possession figure for each team, then figure out what that score projects. (Possessions x Points Per Possession = Points.) I'm at a complete loss to project Mizzou's points per possession in this one. It's been so high all year, and it was through the roof against a very good Memphis team. But as high as Mizzou's PPP has been, UConn's opponents' PPP has been equally low. I'll more or less split the difference and say that Mizzou will end up around the 1.05 PPP mark. They really could end up anywhere between about 0.95 and 1.15.

Meanwhile, I think UConn has a bit more margin for error (just like I said Memphis did). They'll most likely fall between about 1.03 and 1.13). So we'll say 1.08 for UConn. At a pace of 72 possessions, that's UConn 78, Mizzou 76, a prediction quite similar to mine for the Memphis game. And the Memphis game worked out just fine, wouldn't you say? So 78-76 UConn it is.

Like most Mizzou games, a comfortable margin of victory is likely no matter who wins--Mizzou pressing the pace means larger momentum swings both ways, and when you think about it, Mizzou just hasn't played that many truly close games this year (Marquette, KU, @Texas, @OSU, @Nebraska, Xavier...and that's about it?). They've come through big-time in the clutch, and I like their chances here, but if they play 10 times, UConn probably wins 6-7, and I'm playing the odds here. Prove me wrong, boys.

(Oh yeah, and be sure to confess your sins.)

Proud to be a Boilermaker

BoilerTMill — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 13:39:50 -0000

I am proud to be a Boilermaker today.

I never thought eight words would mean so much to me. When I was born, I came home from the hospital in a Purdue outfit. I can't even remember a time when I haven't watched Purdue sports. Standing in my living room last night though, with tears beginning to flow as I heard the Paint Crew members that went all the way to Arizona give us one final Bobby Buckets chant, those words gained an even more poignant meaning to me. My eyes are even getting a little misty this morning thinking about it again.

J Money gets it. There are normal people, then there are sports fans. For people like us our teams become an extension of ourselves. We live by them. We feel like we know the guys. I know that is true about this group of young men. Because of this blog I feel like I know them better than any other team. I have written almost daily about them since November. They have been what sports need to be: a pleasant distraction at times when we need them the most. They have allowed me to vent so many personal frustrations and re-direct so much pent up energy that I literally do not know what I would do without them. Dammit I am proud of these guys today.

Remember this moment, fellas. We will be back to avenge it.

Last night that Buckets chant said so much about who we are as Purdue fans. Over the course of the open thread here and the Liveblog that the UConn Blog was doing, the Husky fans continued to comment how we simply refused to go away. Even in the final minutes, with the game well decided, we did not give up. Instead of an arena filled with UConn fans cheering their team's advancement to the elite 8 what did we hear on the broadcast?

BOBBY BUCKETS!!!

Clap clap clapclapclap

BOBBY BUCKETS!!!

Clap clap clapclapclap

How can you not be moved by that? I admit we got our asses handed to us by a bigger, stronger, better team. UConn hit the shots they needed to hit. Thabeet thoroughly disrupted our offense. Price hit some very tough shots and Austrie hit some absolute back-breaking threes. Still, in face of everything, here are some select comments from UConn fans during the liveblog in the final minutes.

gxpanos: You guys play GREAT D, though, T-Mill. You'll be around in the Big 10 next year.

GoHuskiesGo: I think Purdue can dominate the Big Ten because they play BASKETBALL

GoHuskiesGo: Hey T-Mill- your kids wont die. its irritating.

Jesus Shuttlesworth: man, purdue just does not go away.

GoHuskiesGo: I'm very impressed by Purdue

Jesus Shuttlesworth: yeah, and considering they're all coming back, you have to think this team can do some damage.

Those statements just mean so much to me as does the Paint Crew last night. I will always remember that. Even in defeat we were still there, and we made my original prediction came true. At 9:25 last night, UConn did respect us.

BOBBY BUCKETS!!!

Clap clap clapclapclap

BOBBY BUCKETS!!!

Clap clap clapclapclap

Positives from the UConn game:

All of the above - Well, obviously. Last night was the first time this season where I really felt the general youth of our team. Maybe it is because the Big Ten in general was so youthful this year. Connecticut's experience made as much of a difference as Xavier's did in last season's tournament. They had that little extra push from it. They knew when to get in a passing lane, when to change tempo. They understood all the little nuances of the game that only experience can bring. A prime example was the fast break we had when down four and LewJack was looking for the open layup. Price knew exactly where to be, intercepted the freshman's pass, and it ended up being a dunk the other way. It was a four point shift and psychologically was a killing blow. The ability to get the lead under three almost became a mental barrier, and that (other than Keaton's second half layup that rimmed out, failing to cut it to one) was our best chance.

Robbie Hummel (first half edition) - Robbie kept us alive last night. Nothing was falling early on except for Robbie's shot. I don't know if it was the atmosphere of essentially shooting in a warehouse or what, but that was about the worst possible start we could have had last night. UConn basically won that game in the first six minutes by grabbing a 14-3 lead. Honestly, it could have been a whole lot more too. UConn did a great job of taking Robbie out of the second half.

Bobby, Nemanja, Marcus, and Chris - Although the circumstances were obviously not the best, all four got to play last night in the final games of their careers. Marcus had a very nice layup by collecting a tough pass on a fast break. Buckets gave us one more three to remember him. Chally had a bad night offensively, but I was very proud of the way he worked against Thabeet and got some tough offensive rebounds. Chris only got in in the final minute, but I know his contributions in practice will be missed. I know I speak for all Purdue fans when I say I love these guys, and I will miss them. Thank you.

The Paint Crew - Thank you guys for traveling last night. I am so envious of you right now it is not even funny. I remember watching the first Penn State game back in January and you guys took over their arena with a group not even 100 strong. You took over Glendale last night. I am proud to have you guys representing our University.

Negatives from the UConn game.

That one little bounce - I feel that is all we needed last night to turn the game around. The biggest moment, to me, was the open drive Keaton Grant had to the basket. We were down three at the time and we had actually pulled Thabeet away from the rim. Keaton had an easy layup, but it just barely rimmed out. We had been unable to get it under three despite several chances at that point, and if that shot drops it cuts it to one. That came with 15:35 left, and UConn went on an 8-0 run after the miss. We never got it to three again.

Hasheem Thabeet - He was the difference last night. He completely disrupted our offensive flow. We were afraid to attack him, and when we did attack he showed how smart he was by not fouling on a block. This was honestly a very poor matchup for us because of his size. He is a true 7'3". Many guys that are that tall aren't nearly as athletic as Thabeet is. I know I was impressed. I think without his disruptions we have a real shot because every time he was away from the basket or on the bench we looked good offensively. Yes Austrie hit three daggers threes. Yes Robinson was tough down low. Yes Price hit some tough drives, but it was Thabeet's physical presence that made the biggest difference. He played 36 minutes last night when he normally only averages 32. UConn needed him that badly. I have a feeling that facing a super-sized player like Thabeet will be our weakness, but fortunately not many teams have him.

36.4% - That was our shooting percentage last night. We shot 6 of 23 from the three point line, and one of those makes was from Buckets in the last 20 seconds. It was the one night we could not afford to have a poor shooting night. Thabeet played a large role with blocks or "influences", as I like to call them. Defensively we did everything we needed to do. If the game is close I think we keep them around 60 points because free throws in the last five minutes pushed it out. UConn didn't have a made field goal in the last six minutes, but they hit 15 of 18 free throws in that time.

Up next:

I know the future is very bright for us. Next year can easily be a Final Four year, with 2011 being a year in which I think we will have our best chance ever at a National Championship. There are many factors in thinking that. I think the talent we have coming in is better than the talent we have leaving. I think another year of experience will greatly help us, especially if we can bulk up in the weight room. It will help LewJack running the point especially. I also think that the Big Ten, with all its young sophomore talent, will only get tougher, and that will make us even better come tournament time.

I know a lot has been made about the Big East being a mega-conference, but they have delivered in this tournament. They won all three games they were a part of last night, making an all-Big East Final Four a real possibility. There is something to be said about conference toughness, and that could be the Big Ten next year. UConn was clearly the better team last night. I was very impressed with their defense, but I think that can be us in a year or two because most of the time JaJuan is going to be as big of a matchup problem for other teams as Thabeet was for us.

We will learn from this game. Depending on the outcome of tonight's game we might be able to say that we have played five of this year's Elite 8 at some point in the past two seasons. Had Duke and Xavier won last night that number could have been seven. As it is, we have now played seven of this year's sweet 16 in the past two years, and only one of those teams was in our own conference. We have taken our lumps, going 3-7 against the likes of Louisville, Michigan State, Missouri, Duke, Oklahoma, UConn, and Xavier, but we will learn from these games. I am very proud of where we are, and very excited about the future, but it still doesn't mean I am not upset over losing a game we very easily could have won if a few things are different.

As for the blog, I'll still do some basketball stuff as long as the women are still playing. I am leaving for Miami on Wednesday, and I may be doing some stuff for SBNation's Miami blog the Seventh floor in that time since I am going to a baseball series down there, but I don't know yet. Through the spring I'll be talking about Purdue baseball, as well as Spring practice. I have another series idea as well that is similar to last year's Best Wins of the Tiller Era. Over the summer it will be team and unit previews as we gear up for football as well.

I do want to thank everyone for stopping by and making the midseason transition over here to SBNation so successful. I wouldn't be here if not for two groups of people: you the readers and the teams themselves. I thank you both.

What the Enemy Thinks: Sitting Down with the UConn Bloggers

BoilerTMill — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 14:11:35 -0000

My regular readers know that the Big Ten group here takes great pride in its roundtables. While I and Boiled Sports carry the Purdue banner, we are almost literally overrun with representatives from Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. Today we step outside our small circle of friend to talk with three bloggers who are dedicated to following tomorrow night's opponent: Connecticut.

David Gillett publishes the Blog UConn Huskies basketball and was kind enough to give me a small space on his blog this morning.

Justin Verrier is the publisher of the UConn blog and posted my answers to his questions yesterday (as scooped by the handsome devils at Boiled Sports).

Matt Stout is a writer for the Norwich Bulletin out in Connecticut, so he is much like me in that he is a real journalist on the side fighting undercover as a blogger. He publishes Matt's UConn blog.

These three gentlemen were kind enough to sit down and talk about UConn with me this week. I presented the same questions to each one and here are their answers in roundtable form. I also did a very quick paragraph for Searching for Billy Edelin on why Purdue will win the West Region.

T-Mill: UConn is another team battling injuries, but that appeared to have little effect in the early rounds. Was this a case of true recovery, or just playing two poor opponents?

Matt: Truthfully, I don't think UConn can really be characterized as a team "battling injuries." The Huskies have essentially had one (Jerome's Dyson knee injury), though it was as significant a blow that the program has faced entering the postseason in Jim Calhoun's tenure. I think what we've seen over the two first-round wins was a recovery of that. A.J. Price's emergence as a bigger offensive force in place of Dyson was apparent in the weeks before the NCAA tournament, but he's taken that to a different level. Stanley Robinson, for the first time this season, has seemingly found a nice offensive groove, and his growing assertiveness is just a big a factor as Price's. Then of course, there's Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet, who have provided points when needed and provided the expected balance inside to Price's outside game.

Most importantly, however, with UConn's offensive improvement, the Huskies have found that swagger they needed. Dogged by questions of postseason failure for weeks, they have looked like the most impressive team in the tournament through two rounds. You can argue that others have faced tougher competition, but I wouldn't call Chattanooga or Texas A&M "poor teams." They're NCAA tournament teams and two of the best in their respective conferences. Chattanooga never really had a chance, even on paper, but UConn's ability to dominate Texas A&M speaks more to what the Huskies did than what the Aggies couldn't.

David: While UConn did lose a key part of their backcourt, they are playing some of their best ball at the right time. While Chattanooga and Texas A&M had a great year, they had no one to match-up with UConn's strong frontcourt. It didn't hurt that Price was draining shots from the perimeter, which makes this team even more deadly and both their opponents had poor shooting nights.

Justin: I think it was a little bit of both.

Chattanooga probably should have been in the play-in game, and although Texas A&M took down Mizzou in the regular season, they are a pretty bad offensive team that finished just 9-7 playing within a Big 12 that was pretty bad this year.

It was certainly a good way for the Huskies to set the tone in the tourney, and it really made everyone forget about Jerome Dyson and some of the losses recently.

But "recovery" also may be a bit much. Although they'd dropped two games to Pitt, and lost that whole soul-crushing six-overtime game to Syracuse, I don't think they've had two really poor performances in a row all season. Their toughest games just happened to coincide with the loss of Dyson.

At the same, though, I don't think anyone expected UConn to beat either team the way they did. The Huskies hadn't looked that impressive probably since blowing out Louisville in early February

T-Mill: This is a matchup of very versatile teams. It looks like you can run if you want to, but so can we. We can stop and play defense, but so can you. Which pace do you think favors which team?

Justin: I would have to say a fast one. Without Dyson, UConn doesn't have the outside shooters or anyone that can really create his own shot off the dribble in a halfcourt set.

Sure, A.J. Price can make some things happen, but after blowing out his ACL in last year's tourney, he's not the same; he just can't take over a game the way he used to. And you would think someone 7-foot-3 would be able to dominate in the post, but sadly, Hasheem Thabeet is plagued with what we call "Flubber hands" and he feels the need to put it on the floor every time even though he could just go on his tippy toes to dunk it. (Ed Note: this must be a cousin of Crisco hands, where the task of simply grabbing the basketball in open space becomes exceedingly difficult.)

But Coach Cal (what we call Jim Calhoun at The UConnBlog) talks every preseason about getting out and running. This season, I think they've done that. All seven rotation players, especially backup guard Kemba Walker, can run, and the team is at its best when they're running the floor and turning Thabeet blocks into easy transition points.

Matt: A fast-paced game favors UConn, not because Purdue can't run - and the Boilermakers can - but if the Huskies are running, that means they're rebounding and using the outlets. And if they're rebounding, then they're winning a battle that Purdue desperately needs in this game. (That also means another big game from JaJuan Johnson and a gritty effort from Robbie Hummel.)

UConn's halfcourt sets have looked 10 times more fluid and dangerous than they did even the week before in the Big East tournament, but if Purdue can force the Huskies to score the majority of their points in the halfcourt and late in the shot clock, it favors the Boilermakers. It will naturally create a lower scoring game, the same kind of contest Purdue has proven it can win in its late-season surge, and perhaps disrupt a UConn offense that has outscored tournament opponents by a combined 82 points.

Purdue is at its best when it is grinding things out. That's usually not the case in a track meet.

David: UConn wants a quick pace. The more chances they have at the basket, the better their chances of winning are. They'll use full court pressure to quicken the pace of the game. They've been really good at the half court game, but they make their runs in transition, and like to attack the defense before they settle. In the half court sets, Connecticut thrives against man-to-man defenses and plays the high-low with Adrien and Thabeet to perfection. It is in the zone that UConn tends to settle for bad perimeter shots and negates their advantage of their front court.

T-Mill: How much does the loss of Jerome Dyson effect your offense? Will it be a bigger deal agaisnt tougher competition this weekend?

David: The loss of Dyson hasn't affected their offense, as much as it has affected their defense. He was always matched up against the team's deadliest shooter and he had a knack of getting steals. If this team misses anything from Dyson's absence on offense it would be his ability to finish on the break and attack the zone with dribble penetration. Kemba Walker has emerged as UConn's best perimeter defense and Craig Austrie has put together back-to-back solid defensive games, and there has been enough time since Dyson's injury for this team to adjust for it not to make a major difference. The emergence of Stanley Robinson's offensive ability has also contributed to UConn's success without Dyson.

Justin: When Dyson went down, we all started to freak out a little. Big-time freshmen Ater Majok and Nate Miles were already forced out of the picture and backup center Charles Okwandu was ruled academically ineligible.

And for the reasons I mentioned before, it still affects the offense in a big way. But Dyson's loss has been eased somewhat by Stanley Robinson finally playing like everyone expected him to.

After almost three seasons of frustratingly inconsistent play, Robinson seems to have finally turned things around, having put up 28, 24 and 12 points the past three games. Losing Dyson hurts a lot, especially in a huge game like this. But Robinson may be able to help make up for what we lost in Dyson. Announcers point out his freakish athleticism about eight times a game, and finally, Stanley has turned it into productivity.

Matt: I may have already tipped my hand here, but Jerome Dyson's absence was the biggest story for UConn entering the tournament (other than their previous failed attempts to win in the postseason). Between UConn's offensive explosion and Jim Calhoun's health, the loss of Dyson has largely become an afterthought. If A.J. Price continues to provide a scorching presence from the outside and Stanley Robinson's emergence isn't limited to those first two games, UConn's offense will be as dynamic as it was last weekend. If Price has a tough shooting day, then the focus will likely turn inside, where Thabeet dominated against Chattanooga but was largely forgettable against Texas A&M.

Simply, with Dyson, UConn had a bevy of offensive options. Without him, the Huskies still do. It's about how well one part of the offense complements the other - with Stanley Robinson providing a dynamic presence in both areas.

T-Mill: Much has been made about the Big East being an all-powerful conference, while the media perceives the Big Ten as slightly above the SWAC at the moment. Do you believe UConn has reason to fear the Big Ten Boilers?

Matt: Of course UConn does. The Boilermakers won a conference that sent seven teams to the tournament, and are playing their best basketball at exactly the right time. Between Johnson, Hummel and E'Twaun Moore, they have weapons, and there's no reason to believe UConn is a shoe-in to advance. When it comes down to this particular game, conference ties mean little.

But I don't think anyone will argue that with five Sweet Sixteen teams, the Big East is the country's powerhouse conference, above the Big Ten, ACC, Big XII or any other league - SWAC included. That said, UConn will be favored here not because they played in the Big East but because they're UConn, one of the country's top teams with a top-five NBA draft pick in the middle, one of the country's most experienced guards at point and weapons around them.

David: UConn has struggled in games against Buffalo and Michigan, so they have a lot to fear from Purdue. In an one-and-done scenario, especially at this level, any team can beat each other. We, as a fan base, have experienced the David and Goliath fall with George Mason and San Diego still fresh on our minds. We fear the underdogs.

Justin: Well, to be honest, we've taken our shots on the Big Ten along with everyone else.

But with that being said, I'm terrified of the Boilermakers. JaJuan Johnson appears to be the type of player that can neutralize Thabeet, and Purdue has enough shooters on the outside to attack UConn's deficiencies guarding the perimeter. Combine all that with a defense that looks and has a reputation of being really tough, and Purdue has the type of team that has a legitimate shot at derailing another Coach Cal five-year plan. (We won our other two titles in 1999 and 2004.) (Ed, Note: What is he, Joseph Stalin? Is this a purge?)

T-Mill: What scenario on Thursday would have you the most nervous? Which would have you the most confident?

David: Thabeet in early foul trouble, Price missing the outside shot, and Purdue shooters having a lights out performance. That would be a recipe for a UConn disaster. For UConn to be successful, they need to make their free throws, have their front court stay out of foul trouble, shut down the perimeter shot, and need to make at least four three pointers to keep the defense honest.

Matt: If I was a UConn fan, I would be nervous if Purdue is rebounding with the Huskies, Hasheem Thabeet gets in early foul trouble and A.J. Price hits a cold streak. On the other hand, you won't find a team or fan base more confident than UConn right now considering what it did in the first two rounds. If the Huskies continue to do what they did against Chattanooga and Texas A&M - play well early, put together a big run at some point and continue to pound the glass and the scoreboard - then Purdue will have to do something extraordinary to pull the upset.

Justin: Considering all the problems we've had to overcome this season, anything that isn't a 20-0 lead to open the game would make me nervous. And even then I would be preparing for the bottom to fall out.

Worst-case scenario, though, is Johnson having success taking it at Thabeet, Hummel and E'Twaun Moore lighting it up from outside and Purdue slowing the game down and forcing UConn to win in the halfcourt.

Best-case is for the Huskies to come out hot, establish the inside game with Thabeet and Jeff Adrien early, have Price drain a few threes to stretch the floor and then for Robinson to play like he has the past few weeks and scream obnoxiously loud on authoritative dunks (you'll get that joke soon enough).

But that probably won't happen, so I just hope this team has enough fire power and enough grit to grind out what should be a tough matchup. One I can't wait to see.

T-Mill: Thanks guys! It sounds like we are all in agreement on what each team needs to do here. It may boil down to who is on their game that night, though UConn can likely survive being off more than Purdue.

Purdue: Know Your Glendale Travel Companion

Bill C. — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we looked at UConn. Today, the #5 seeded Purdue Boilermakers.

Purdue: 26-9

	Boilers	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.71	1.47
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.06	0.91
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.24	1.09
2-PT FG%	49.2%	41.7%
3-PT FG%	34.9%	32.8%
FT%	70.6%	67.2%
True Shooting %	54.2%	47.8%

	Boilers	Opp
Assists/Gm	15.0	12.3
Steals/Gm	7.2	5.3
Turnovers/Gm	11.6	14.9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	1.18

	Boilers	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	11.8	12.8
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	9.8	11.4
Difference	-2.0	-1.4

Where PU's good: Forcing turnovers, forcing bad shots, defensive rebounds, passing, ball-handling
Where PU's not as good: Offensive rebounds, overall points per possession and free throw shooting are only decent but not great

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
JaJuan Johnson (6'10, 215, So.)	14.42	0.54	13.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 1.3 TOPG
Robbie Hummel (6'8, 208, So.)	13.75	0.47	12.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 TOPG
E'Twaun Moore (6'3, 180, So.)	11.56	0.35	14.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 2.6 TOPG
Chris Kramer (6'3, 205, Jr.)	7.71	0.28	5.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.4 TOPG
Keaton Grant (6'4, 207, Jr.)	6.21	0.23	8.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 TOPG
Lewis Jackson (5'9, 165, Fr.)	5.34	0.23	5.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.0 TOPG
Marcus Green (6'4, 229, Sr.)	4.63	0.29	4.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.0 APG
Nemanja Calasan (6'9, 250, Sr.)	4.58	0.29	6.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.0 TOPG
Bobby Riddell (5'9, 163, Sr.)	2.23	0.32	2.3 PPG
Ryne Smith (6'3, 175, Fr.)	0.86	0.16	1.1 PPG
Mark Wohlford (6'0, 185, Jr.)	0.19	0.07	36 minutes
Chris Reid (6'9, 251, Sr.)	-0.23	-0.11	30 minutes

JaJuan Johnson is a much more physically dominant player than his weight would suggest. He's a great shot-blocker and shooter, though I guess really his rebounding leaves a bit to be desired considering he's PU's #1 post man.
Robbie Hummel, on the other hand, rebounds particularly well considering how much time he spends on the offensive perimeter. He's one of the team's best 3-point shooters and its best rebounder. Interesting combination. Purdue's three major seniors are their #7, #8 and #9 contributors. They'll only be better next year.
One thing quickly jumps out, though, when comparing this roster to that of UConn: size. Not a lot of it here...some height, but not a lot of weight.

What does Ken Pomeroy have to say?

You look at KenPom's stats, and you start to think the Purdue-UConn game is going to be about 63-58 one way or the other. Like UConn, Purdue is a defense-first team. They are a reasonable offensively efficient team--#57 in efficiency, #19 in turnover %, high assist-to-FG ratio--but they are in the Sweet Sixteen because of defense (and anybody who watched the last minute of Purdue-Washington can attest to that). They are #5 in the country in defensive efficiency, #9 in Effective FG% allowed, #10 in 2pt% allowed, and #25 in block%.

What are Purdue's weaknesses? They're only an average FT shooting team (#109), and they don't get to the line very much at all (#243). A good passing team can pick them apart (#279 in Assist-to-FG ratio), and as you would guess from all the sophomores contributing for them, they are not high in the experience ratings (#189). And as mentioned earlier, they just do not grab many offensive boards (#265). It's rare for a team to be so great defensively and so finesse- and jumper-oriented offensively, but that's Purdue.

Keys to the Huskies-Boilers Game

Purdue's offensive rebounds. Purdue's offensive rebounding ability vs UConn's defensive rebounding ability is the single biggest statistical contrast in this game. UConn has an extreme advantage here, and the Boilers will either have to get very hot shooting the ball, or they're going to have to find some way to grab some second-chance opportunities.
The hot hand. Points will be at a premium in this game, and neither team has a true go-to scorer--Purdue and UConn both have three guys averaging double digits, and the leading scorer seems to change from game to game. If somebody gets hot, especially from 3-point land (away from the blocked shots in the paint), one nice spurt of scoring could create the necessary distance between the two teams. Will that hot hand be AJ Price? E'Twaun Moore?
Size vs Speed. UConn's a really big team, Purdue not so much. They both play very well defensively, but can Purdue compensate for such a disparity in, um, girth? Hasheem Thabeet (7'3, 265) and Jeff Adrien (6'7, 243) will win any battle of size and muscle over JaJuan Johnson (6'10, 215) and Robbie Hummel (6'8, 208).

However, Johnson and Hummel will have a significant advantage in terms of speed and range. Johnson has decent shooting range, and Hummel actually seems to prefer the perimeter by far, having made the second-most 3-pointers on Purdue's roster. The winner of this mini 2-on-2 battle will probably win the game. If Purdue's skinny bigs can draw UConn's away from the paint, Purdue's options double or triple. If not, then Purdue's going to have to sink a ton of 3-pointers to win this game.

Prediction

Nevermind how well UConn played the first weekend of the tournament. It's ancient history. What clearly resides in the present tense, however, is that Purdue has much less margin for error in this game. UConn will likely dominate the glass on Purdue's side of the court, so Purdue either finds a hot shooter or loses. Hummel or Moore or maybe Keaton Grant can take a lot of pressure off of JaJuan Johnson if they can make some 3-pointers and open up the court a bit, but in the end I just don't think Purdue matches up well. Purdue's strengths are UConn's strengths, only the Huskies seem just a bit better in every category. This will be a halfcourt dogfight, but I expect UConn to end up advancing. UConn 69, Purdue 62.

Know thy NCAA Tournament Opponent Round 3: Connecticut Huskies

BoilerTMill — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 15:18:10 -0000

I think we are supposed to be quaking in fear. All I have seen this week is how good Connecticut has looked. They need to re-seed the tournament right now because they should be the number 1 overall seed. They need to book a reservation for Detroit right now because no one in Glendale is going to challenge them. One comment on a recent post here even said:

After seeing the monster who is Hasheem Thabeet and realize you do not have the size or the strength to play with Uconn, you'll immediately see that you guys are just outclassed. The athletes are just too much to handle for Purdue this time. You can throw in all the statistics you, bottom line 7'3" and a hall of fame coach doesn't lie. Sorry boys

The funny thing is that I am not afraid. We have faced teams with "better athletes" this year and held our own. We have faced dominant big men like Blake Griffin and Jon Brockman and done just fine. Sure, people say Griffin owned us in a win, but it's hard to lose when you shoot 39 more free throws than your opponent, and we still tookt hem to overtime. We have faced Hall of Fame coaches like Krzyzewski, Izzo, and Crean (kidding!) and have come out just fine. We may have lost some of those games, but I would say only in the Duke game were we outclassed. That was months ago. We are a different team now.

Is this where we tell Bob Barker, "The Price is Wrong, bitch!"?

There is little question that Connecticut is well coached and supremely talented. We will respect them, but we are far from afraid of them.

Record: 29-4, 15-3 Big East

NCAA Tournament Appearances: 29 (missed one tournament in last 10 years)

All-Time NCAA Record: 44-27 (Champions in 1999 and 2004)

All-Time Record vs. Purdue: 0-4 (Last meeting: unranked Purdue beat #16 UConn 73-69 on 11/28/92 in Springfield, MA)

2008-09 common opponents: Wisconsin (W 76-57), Michigan (W 69-61)

Notable games vs. 2008-09 NCAA Tournament teams: Wisconsin (W 76-57), Gonzaga (W 88-83 OT), West Virginia (W 61-55), Villanova (W 89-83), Louisville (W 68-51), Michigan (W 69-61), Syracuse (W 63-49, L 127-117 6OT), Pittsburgh (L 76-68, L 70-60), Marquette (W 93-82), Tennessee-Chattanooga (W 103-47), Texas A&M (W 92-66)

2007-08 record: 24-9, 13-5 Big East (lost 70-69 to San Diego in NCAA first round, breaking streak of 14 straight wins in first round)

Blog Representation: The UConn blog, UConn Huskies Basketball, Matt's UConn blog (each will have their say later this week)

It is safe to say that this is our next shot at national recognition. Based on some early preseason rankings the teams are about equal. We have obviously fallen from that lofty perch, but Connecticut has done nothing to move out of the top five all season long. I mentioned that we will not be afraid of them, but they certainly will not fear us. They are an elite national program with the profile and wins to match. They have faced some of the country's best teams and walked away the winner more often than they have lost. A major reason Pittsburgh is a number one seed is because they have given the Huskies two of their four losses. A third came in a six overtime classic against Syracuse two weeks ago in the Big East Tournament. The only other team to beat UConn was Georgetown. The Hoyas were a Final Four team two years ago that severely underachieved this season. They aren't exactly Sisters of the Poor and Blind. Even though the loss came at UConn it is far from a bad loss. At the time Georgetown was 9-1 and ranked 8^th. Afterward they went 5-15.

It is not a stretch to say those were a couple of UConn's worst games this season. If you match common opponents we only have two games of comparison, but they are two solid games. UConn defeated Wisconsin by 19 very early in the season to win the Paradise Jam down in the Virgin Islands. Michigan then played a strange non-conference game at Connecticut during a conference bye and hung with the Huskies before losing 69-61 in January. The Wolverines actually led by a point at halftime and were within five in the final minutes. We went 3-1 against those same foes, so we are certainly capable of competing.

Our biggest challenge on Thursday night will be rebounding. Connecticut's offense is very balanced with four players averaging in double figures (though Jerome Dyson and his 13.2 points per game is out for the season), but their rebounding is what keeps them in games. It is absolutely imperative that we limit them to one shot per possession as much as possible. 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet (13.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg) and 6'7" Jeff Adrien (13.9 ppg, 10.2 rpg) each average double-doubles every night. Thabeet is a natural shot blocker with his size, adding 4.4 blocks per contest. Hummel and Adrien are similar in size, but Thabeet has an advantage even over JaJuan Johnson. Beating them on the boards will be a matter of out-working them and getting in the proper position. We cannot be lazy. Every time a shot goes up we need to shove a butt right in their stomachs and get the right position. Boxing out is absolutely critical because we cannot win this game if Adrien and Thabeet are constantly beating us on the glass. Both of them are excellent offensive rebounders with more than 100 second chances on the season.

Thabeet is obviously an imposing physical presence, but the advantage we have is that JaJuan can draw him out of the lane. He is not nearly as effective away from the basket as JaJuan is. When we have the ball it will be important to attack the basket when JaJuan has the ball against him in the high post. This can eliminate his shot blocking defensive presence as well as his rebounding ability. Offensively we just have to keep him off the glass and keep their guards from penetrating.

6'2 senior guard A.J. Price is Connecticut's leading scorer at 14.6 points per game. He is also an excellent distributor with 4.8 assists per contest. The guy is an excellent scoring, slashing guard and is capable of dropping 30 points on anyone. He can play on the perimeter or drive. He has made nine 3-pointers already in this tournament and is shooting almost 50% from the field. As much as we need to concentrate on Thabeet and Adrien, Price is the catalyst that runs the Connecticut offense. Kramer will likely draw the assignment against him, but I can see us switching up defenders on him like we did against Stephen Curry, Kalin Lucas, and Talor Battle. He is a similar type of player to them, but he is probably better than all of them with more size.

Dyson's injury means Connecticut's bench is shorter than it has been most of the year. He hasn't played since a win over Syracuse on February 11^th though, so they have had plenty of time to adjust. 6'1 freshman Kemba Walker (8.7 ppg, 2.8 apg) is a promising young talent that helps run the show in the backcourt with Price. 6'9" forward Stanley Robinson (8 ppg) could be a major factor as well. If Connecticut goes big with Robinson, Thabeet, and Adrien it will be difficult to match their size.

Connecticut normally goes with just a seven man rotation. 6'3" senior guard Craig Austrie (7ppg) and 6'9" junior forward Gavin Edwards (4 ppg) round out their rotation. No one else plays more than four minutes per night. It is a smaller core than some of the teams we have recently faced, but let's face it, they are really, really good. We can't expect to tire Connecticut out. They are just fine with running and can comfortably score almost 80 points per night.

As with most number one seeds, it is difficult to find a weakness in Connecticut's game. They share the basketball (almost 16 assists per night), they rebound well, they don't turn it over much, and they are rarely in foul trouble. Things may be different if we can get them into a Big Ten slugfest, but they only average 13 fouls per game. Because of their short bench it could give us a big advantage if we can get them into foul trouble. That is why positioning is important on rebounding. If we can get proper position and grab a few over the back calls it can change the game's entire dynamic.

Getting them into a Big Ten slugfest does not mean an automatic win, either. Connecticut can play some defense. Holding a team under 60 points is pretty common for them. Their size allows them to adjust well to a slowdown pace because they can pound teams into submission with Adrien and Thabeet inside. We may actually be better suited running against them because it doesn't allow Thabeet to set up in the low post and swat everything away. Still, I would attack him directly. We must show we don't have any fear of going against him and draw some early fouls if we can.

This is going to be a tough one for us. I know we don't fear them, but that can only go so far. I am confident we can give them a game, but we will have to continue playing as a team with each piece complimenting the others. JaJuan has to draw Thabeet away from the basket on the offensive end and avoid foul trouble on defense. Robbie has to keep putting in work on the glass. If he can score more that will be a huge boost. We need Marcus to do all the little things when he is in there and avoid foul trouble. The same is true with Chally. Against dominant big men in Griffin and Brockman we were competitive, but battled foul trouble the whole game. Keaton and E'Twaun need to hit some threes to draw out their defense. Moore must also create his own shots and seize the moment. I saw it in his eyes out in Portland. I can feel E'Twaun has a big scoring game coming very soon. Kramer and LewJack need to lock in on Price and essentially make his life a living hell every time he has the basketball the same way they didn't let Kalin Lucas even call plays.

Teams beat Connecticut, not individuals. The last two times Connecticut has lost in NCAA play they didn't lose to teams with superior talent. Indeed, Connecticut had superior talent each time. San Diego and George Mason toppled them because they played virtually flawless team basketball against an opponent that occasionally (but not always) strays into a trap of NBA individuality. I do think this UConn team is different from those UConn teams though. They have learned from those losses and don't go intot hat "me first" mode as much. The challenge we present is that we play as a team like George Mason and San Diego plus we have pretty good talent.

The biggest keys, however, are to hit some shots and not allow them to own the offensive glass. I really like our chances if we can consistently limit them to one shot per possession. Unfortunately, I am also a realist. I believe we will give Connecticut a much closer game than people expect, but in the end their size will be a little too much. UConn 73, Purdue 69