SB Nation - A.J. Price

Potential Draft Picks for the Orlando Magic, If They Buy-In to the Second Round

Ben Q Rock — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 18:00:21 -0000

The Orlando Magic don't have a selection in tomorrow night's NBA Draft, having traded their first-rounder to Memphis in February's season-saving Rafer Alston acquisition, and their second-rounder to Oklahoma City (then Seattle) as part of the sign-and-trade deal which brought Rashard Lewis to Orlando in 2007; OKC has since shipped that pick to Phoenix.

But there's still a chance the Magic could acquire a pick this year, which is why it's prudent for us to examine whom they might realistically attain. What's realistic, by Magic standards? Anyone in the second round. Not only are first-round picks expensive to purchase--the maximum amount that can change hands is $3 million--but the players selected come with guaranteed deals. So even if the Magic were to buy, say, the 28th pick from Minnesota, they'd still be out $3 million for the transaction, plus another $3 million or so from the first two years' salary of that player's contract. That's quite the financial hit to take on a guy who might never play meaningful minutes.

But second-round picks figure to be more affordable, and with more sellers due to the sheer number of teams with picks to spare. Portland has 4 picks, Detroit and San Antonio have 3 apiece, while, Charlotte, Miami, Minnesota, and Phoenix have two each. So, after the jump, we'll take a look at which second-round prospects might fit-in well with the Magic, should they decide to make a move.

Before proceeding, I'd like to acknowledge Zach McCann of Orlando Magic Daily, who did this sort of exercise first; and to Jon Nichols of Basketball-Statistics, whose list of potential Magic targets also informed this post.

The two biggest areas of need for Orlando this year are power forward and point guard. The Magic will need another big man in the rotation if Marcin Gortat leaves via free agency, as I expect he will. They'll also need a young point guard whom they can groom as Jameer Nelson's backup, as Rafer Alston may be on his way out, and Anthony Johnson's contract runs out at the end of this season.

First, the power forwards. Jeff Pendergraph (6'10", 240 pounds, 22 years old), Jon Brockman (6'07", 252 pounds, 22 years old), and Taj Gibson (6'09.75", 214 pounds, 23 years old) would be my choices, in that order. Pendergraph, as DraftExpress notes, is the nation's most efficient scorer at 1.37 points per possession. Offensively, his scouting report recalls Gortat:

Pendergraph is a meat and potatoes type player, mostly living off scraps offensively. The overwhelming majority of his points come off the ball--cuts, offensive rebounds, pick and rolls, and in transition. He's smart, has terrific hands, and finishes pretty well around the basket-which makes him a reliable target inside.

On the downside, Pendergraph is only an average rebounder and shot-blocker.

Brockman isn't the offensive player Pendergraph is, and he's much shorter, but makes up for it with bulk and hard work. Again according to DraftExpress, Brockman took a backseat on offense this year as freshman Isaiah Thomas came into his own, but he still worked hard on his game. He's also one of the nation's leading rebounders. Unlike Gortat, he's not much of a finisher, but the Magic could certainly use a dedicated rebounder to fill-out their bigman rotation. Brockman could definitely be that guy.

The final power forward on my draft board is Taj Gibson. A tremendous athlete, he has the rebounding and shot-blocking aspects of the game down. The biggest problem with him is his skinny frame. Could he, at 214 pounds, defend NBA power forwards in the low-post? And, on offense, could he muscle through them to finish at the rim? Those two question-marks make him a riskier pick than either Pendergraph or Brockman.

Next, a look at the point guards. The draft is full of them. However, many of them will wind up in the lottery, leaving a lot of iffy players and combo-guards to the second round. I wouldn't select any of these guys ahead of any of the power forwards, but based on the Magic's need at that position, they're worth discussing anyway.

Sergio Llull (6'03", 176 pounds, 21 years old), A.J. Price (6'02", 190 pounds, 22 years old), and Jeremy Pargo (6'02", 219 pounds, 23 years old) round out my draft board. Llull, from Real Madrid, is an ballhandler and decision maker, particularly in pick-and-roll situations, which comprise 46% of his total offense. Fans who have followed the Magic during the Van Gundy era know how often the team uses the pick-and-roll, and having another player who can run it effectively makes the team that much more dangerous. Llull also a willing defender and communicator, although DraftExpress wonders if his frame might be too slight to fight through NBA screens. There's also no guarantee he'd join the NBA, as his guaranteed salary in Europe likely exceeds what he'd earn stateside. If the Magic are to shell out for a second-rounder, they'd want to make sure they're drafting someone who's guaranteed to make the trip. With that said, the way in which Llull's strengths mesh with the Magic's DNA makes him a worthy gamble.

Price is less exciting due to his lack of speed, but on the plus side he apparently possesses good court-vision, runs the pick-and-roll well, and can shoot from the outside. Any point guard who can run the pick-and-roll and hit the three-ball reminds me of Nelson, which is a plus.

Pargo rounds out our list. He doesn't draw many fouls, but makes up for it with his ability to finish around contact in the lane. The biggest knock against him is his tendency to make poor decisions against top competition. One of the reasons the Magic drafted Courtney Lee last year was his poise, his maturity, his ability to immediately compete and contribute at the NBA level. Pargo apparently lacks that attribute, which makes him the least attractive of any player we've discussed here. Still, his speed and playmaking skills would make him a welcome addition to the Magic's bench for the next year or two while he learns the ropes.

Ultimately, as far as second-rounders go, the players I've mentioned in this post are closer to Travis Diener and James Augustine than to Monta Ellis and Paul Millsap. But that's okay. Again, for the right price, Orlando can find itself in a good position to land a decent 12th-man type. And, should that player not pan out, the Magic are free to waive him without financial penalty, as his salary is non-guaranteed. Buying into the second round is a low-risk, medium-reward proposition for the Magic. Should they decide to make a deal, any of these players would be a good fit.

So Much Jonny Flynn News, So Little Time

Sean Keeley — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:12:25 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Browse more photos »

...so let's not dilly-dally.

The key to Jonny Flynn's success? Well, you could point to a lot of things I suppose. His work ethic. His upbringing. Jim Boeheim and the SU staff. His experience leading the Orange. But don't forget about his time at Niagara Falls High School. That's where he first learned to play good defense, something folks have wondered whether or not he can do after his time in the zone.

Eric Musselman at ProBasketballNews rates the available point guards in the draft and concludes Flynn is still the fifth-best.

Don't tell that to the Sacramento Kings who hold the fifth pick overall and just invited Flynn back for a second workout. Unfortunately for Jonny his performance seemed "steady if unspectacular" to one writer.

"No one is credited with being more of a competitor and leader than Syracuse's Jonny Flynn." So says Ronald Tillery at the Memphis Commercial-Appeal in his article about the wealth of point guards in this year's NBA draft. Flynn also gets a nice photo in the piece.

Leave it to a Connecticut writer to make the "Why aren't folks more interested in A.J. Price than Jonny Flynn?" argument.

Price’s Huskies won two of the three games [against Flynn's Orange]. Flynn’s only win was the historic, six-overtime battle at this year’s Big East tournament.

Guess which one of those three games is the only one people will remember a year from now? Five years from now? Fifty years from now?

The mock drafts seem to have officially slotted Jonny as a top ten pick from here on out.DraftExpress has Jonny going #8 to the Knicks (dream come true) while NBADraft.net thinks he'll go #7 to the Warriors (nightmare come true). Of course, there's a chance he could go to the Raptors at #9 and if he does, he's already got a nickname ready to go. Jonny "I'm Basically Canadian" Flynn.

One team he almost certainly won't be drafted by is the Charlotte Bobcats. Since the 'Cats are all set at point guard, most of the top prospects refused to even try out for the team, including Flynn. Time is money and why waste the effort?

Regardless of where he goes, Jonny will officially be on-hand at MSG on draft night when he does get selected. The list is 16 players though a couple of them will decline. Now that we know Jonny will be there, he REALLY better go top ten. You don't want to be the last guy in the green room.

Jonny is peppered throughout this NBAdraft.net Top Five collection that finds the best five players in each category or intangible. Jonny is #5 in Athleticism, #2 in Explosiveness, #5 in Ball-Handling and #3 in Competitiveness. Of note, three of the point guards normally rated above Flynn (Jrue Holliday, Stephen Curry, Tyreke Evans) make the Overrated List.

Also worth noting that Paul Harris shows up a couple times in those lists as well, #5 in Strength and #3 in Defenders. Speaking of Paul, he's officially a hot prospect according to Jazzbots. They're wondering if he's Jazz material in the 2nd round (50th picks). DraftExpress seems to think Paul is officially good enough to go in the 2nd round but to the Spurs with the 51st pick.

But what of Eric Devendorf? The tattooed-one is spending his time in Atlanta where he and some fellow Michigan-men are preparing for the chance to be drafted. Chris Luchey, who is representing Devo, DePaul's Dar Tucker and Michigan State's Marquise Gray, is based there. Devo recently worked out for the T'Wolves where he modestly felt he was "the best there" and he's hoping to hear his name on draft day.

Ryan Blake, the Assistant Director of NBA Scouting, said that while Devendorf's high-energy style of play is helpful, he is caught between a shooting guard and a point guard, which could hinder him in some teams' minds. He's not listed on any mock drafts, nor is he on most top-100 prospect lists.

"He's taken a chance by coming out," Blake said. "He can play two positions, but I don't know if he can play two positions at the next level."

Big H/T to Syracuse.com, Ryan and Alex for the tips.

Breaking Down Glendale: #1 UConn Huskies vs. #3 Mizzou Tigers

Cory Williams — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 18:38:45 -0000

Today's Elite 8 matchup in Glendale matches the top ranked Connecticut Huskies against the Missouri Tigers, a team that dropped 102 on Thursday night against Memphis.

Next Game

Missouri Tigers
@ Connecticut Huskies

Saturday, Mar 28, 2009, 1:40 PM MST
NCAA Tournament - West Regional Final - University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ

Complete Coverage >

Missouri was a fun team to watch, playing high energy basketball without committing cheap fouls. Their defense is difficult to break, but their lack of height is a big concern going into this matchup.

UConn features 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet, who has been awarded the Big East Player of the Year and the Defensive Player of the Year, while also being annointed an All-American just in 2008-2009.

Last season, he was the National Defensive Player of the Year, not to the mention the Big East equivalent of the award as well (which makes sense).

Connecticut isn't a one-trick pony, however. Loaded with experience, they feature a starting lineup loaded with seniors including Jeff Adrien and A.J. Price.

The Huskies aren't willing to overlook Missouri, knowing full well just how potent their brand of basketball is. “Yeah, it’s exciting. Playing a good team from the Big 12 gives us bragging rights," said Adrien on Friday. "It helps us with recruiting too and it’s also a trip to Detroit. We’re very excited to play Missouri.”

While playing for a Hall of Fame coach in Jim Calhoun, the Huskies always are being expertly coached and guided on the court.

“It is good for a coach to be hard on you; when he is not, then you have to worry. You want to go to a great program where the coach is going to get on you," Huskies forward Stanley Robinson explained. "It is good for a coach to be hard on you I think.”

From the Missouri bench, we heard from DeMarre Carroll, who has a chip on his shoulder from the lack of respect the mainstream media has given the Tigers.

“We won the Big-12 and we’ve had an easy road and everybody is saying we can’t and we use that as motivation. We have a chip on our shoulder and I think every time we go out there we listen to the analysts on ESPN that say this team is going to win and we use that as motivation," Carroll stated.

"We like to be under the radar and be the underdogs in every event. We are just going to keep going out and doing what we are doing and hey, we are going to win a national championship and then we’ll see what else they say we can’t do.”

Bold words from a great player. The elite 8 is shaping up to be an epic matchup in Glendale, and House Of Sparky will be there, bringing you postgame coverage afterwards.

UConn: Know (Some More About) the Team Standing Between Mizzou and the Final Four...also, Links!

Bill C. — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 14:57:33 -0000

As we wait for the mid-afternoon tip-off, let's take a look at how UConn has done thus far in the NCAA Tournament. Consider this the companion piece to this week's earlier UConn preview.

But first...some Saturday morning Mizzou-UConn links!

(And just so you know, this post got much longer than I intended. Get comfortable.)

TheUConnBlog.com: Everybody cross your fingers and pray: #1 UConn vs #3 Missouri Preview
Hartford Courant: UConn-Missouri: Who will set the pace?
The Trib: Underdog is here

Calipari said Thursday that Missouri should take the same approach into today’s game against the even more heavily favored Huskies.

“You have to go in with the mind-set they went in with today, which is, ‘We can beat these guys,’ ” Calipari said. “I think what they did to us today in the first half, every 50-50 ball they got, every rough play, hands-on bumps, they just made those plays. … You are going to have to go in against a tough Connecticut team and do the same.”
The Trib: Avoid the long arm of Thabeet
The Trib: Game a study in contrasts
The Missourian: Missouri players keep mood light at NCAA Tournament
The Missourian: Connecticut's Thabeet big obstacle for Missouri
KC Star: This is a magical moment for Missouri
KC Star (Posnanski): This Missouri team is hard to hate
You probably know that Bill James, baseball writer extraordinaire, is an intense Kansas basketball fan. It is one of the obsessions of his life. He grew up in Kansas, went to school at Kansas, lives in Kansas, and he will refer to the Jayhawks as “we.” And as a Kansas fan, he takes very seriously all of his Jayhawk responsibilities.
“I hate Missouri basketball with a bottomless passion,” he says.

So, OK, Kansas fan hates Missouri? Great. News flash. What’s the point?

Only this: “I love this Missouri team,” Bill James says.
The Maneater: Missouri ready to outrun UConn's Thabeet
PowerMizzou: Thabeet presents big challenge to Tigers
PowerMizzou: Lawrence is just one step away
StatSheet.com: AP preview
Post-Dispatch: Missouri sizes up UConn's big man in NCAA Tournament
Post-Dispatch (Burwell): Young Tigers go old school
Post-Dispatch (Burwell): A little luck, Denmon says
Post-Dispatch (Bernie): MU team carries hopes of so many old Tigers
Upon Further Review: Thoughts from a Mizzou afterglow

Oh yeah, and...

The Trib: 'Bama hires VCU's Grant

Okay, NOW to UConn/Purdue...stats after the jump...

UConn vs Purdue

NCAA Basketball Stats

	UConn	Purdue
Points Per Minute	1.80	1.50
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.04	0.86
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.29	0.91
2-PT FG%	45.8%	41.9%
3-PT FG%	37.5%	26.1%
FT%	63.3%	54.5%
True Shooting %	52.0%	42.3%

	UConn	Purdue
Assists	19	12
Steals	6	7
Turnovers	13	9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	2.11

	UConn	Purdue
Expected Offensive Rebounds	13	16
Offensive Rebounds	14	9
Difference	+1	-7

This game was basically played at UConn's favorite pace, and while the UConn offense was alright--52.0% true shooting, 1.92 BCI--it really wasn't much better than alright.
What made this game for the Huskies was complete and utter dominance on the boards. If you've been paying attention to my "Expected Offensive Rebounds" number, you've seen that anything over about +3 or +4 is a pretty big rebound margin. UConn was +8. Somehow Mizzou needs to figure out how to stay within +3 or +4 to have a chance. Good luck with that.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Hasheem Thabeet (7'3, 263, Jr.)	18.87	0.52	15 Pts (on 7 shots), 15 Reb (4 Off), 4 Blk, 4 TO
Craig Austrie (6'3, 176, Sr.)	17.97	0.56	17 Pts (on 6 shots), 2 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 TO
A.J. Price (6'2, 181, Sr.)	11.91	0.35	15 Pts, 4 Reb, 7 Ast, 2 Stl, 2 TO
Stanley Robinson (6'9, 210, Jr.)	11.01	0.30	10 Pts, 11 Reb, 2 Ast
Kemba Walker (6'1, 172, Fr.)	9.21	0.46	5 Pts, 3 Reb, 4 Ast, 2 Stl
Jim Veronick (6'8, 200, Sr.)	0.79	0.79	1 minute
Jeff Adrien (6'7, 243, Sr.)	0.67	0.02	8 Pts (on 13 shots), 6 Reb, 2 Ast, 3 TO
Gavin Edwards (6'9, 234, Jr.)	-0.22	-0.02	2 Pts
Donnell Beverly (6'4, 190, So.)	-0.79	-0.39	2 minutes
Scottie Haralson (6'4, 215, Fr.)	-0.79	-0.79	1 minute

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Craig Austrie was insanely good against the Boilers. If UConn wins this game, I have the feeling we'll remember Austrie's or AJ Price's performance as much as we remember Hasheem Thabeet's, even if Thabeet is getting all the headlines (seriously, how many of those links above were about Thabeet and only Thabeet?).
Offensively, Thabeet was about as good as he can be--he averaged over 2 points per FG attempt and grabbed 4 offensive rebounds. Thabeet's major big-man counterpart, Jeff Adrien, was highly ineffective against the Boilers, but he's still been quite good overall in the tourney. One thing to notice, however, is that Thabeet and Adrien combined for 7 turnovers. I like that number. I like 8 or 9 even more.

UConn vs the NCAA Tournament

	UConn	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.23	1.44
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.24	0.80
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.45	0.89
2-PT FG%	57.0%	40.2%
3-PT FG%	33.3%	22.2%
FT%	65.6%	65.8%
True Shooting %	59.0%	40.9%

	UConn	Opp
Assists/Gm	22.3	13.3
Steals/Gm	7.0	5.0
Turnovers/Gm	10.7	11.7
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.75	1.57

	UConn	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	12.3	15.7
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	14.3	10.0
Difference	+2.0	-5.7

Clearly these numbers are somewhat skewed by the first round game against Chattanooga, but you can still see what UConn's modus operandi is: ball control and rebounding. If Mizzou's jumper is cold, they're probably screwed.

Player	AdjGS/Gm	GmSc/Min	Line
A.J. Price	15.89	0.51	20.7 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 6.0 APG, 1.7 SPG, 3.0 TOPG
Hasheem Thabeet	15.27	0.60	13.7 PPG, 10.7 RPG (3.0 Off), 2.7 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 2.3 TOPG
Stanley Robinson	13.91	0.41	15.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG (2.7 Off), 1.0 APG
Jeff Adrien	11.06	0.36	14.7 PPG, 10.0 RPG (3.7 Off), 2.3 APG, 1.0 BPG, 2.7 TOPG
Craig Austrie	10.16	0.35	7.7 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 5.0 APG, 1.7 SPG
Kemba Walker	9.98	0.44	7.7 PPG, 2.7 PPG, 4.7 APG, 1.3 SPG
Gavin Edwards	6.33	0.40	5.7 PPG, 3.7 RPG (1.7 Off), 1.0 APG
Donnell Beverly	3.76	0.94	3.0 PPG, 1.7 APG
Jim Veronick	1.18	1.18	3 minutes
Scottie Haralson	0.31	0.10	9 minutes
John Lindner	-0.05	-0.03	3 minutes
Jonathan Mandeldove	-0.21	-0.10	4 minutes
Johnnie Bird	-0.21	-0.14	3 minutes

With Beverly only playing a few minutes a game, UConn's been playing with a 7.5-man rotation in the tournament. If the game is played at UConn's pace, and there are a lot of whistles, Missouri will be facing a majorly up-and-down battle. But I have the feeling they'll be sprinting the ball down court after every UConn basket (and miss) and trying to beat UConn's bigs to the basket and wear UConn's guards out. It's not a guaranteed success, clearly, but if they can do that a few times, and if there aren't a ton of stoppages, UConn will be clutching their shorts just like Memphis was.
Austrie, Thabeet and Price have been combining for eight turnovers a game in the tourney. Make that 10-12, and Mizzou is in serious business.

Keys to the Game

Pace. Consider the number of possessions the same way you consider the speed limit--70 could be a major benchmark. If Mizzou sucks UConn into speeding, Mizzou is in control--over 70 is a Mizzou advantage, way over 70 a major Mizzou advantage. Under 70, and UConn is probably going to win. Missouri is capable of winning slower games--their three Big 12 Tourney wins only averaged in the mid-60s. But with UConn's halfcourt prowess, the speed and transition game will be huge, not only because UConn is a thin team, but because UConn is a BIG team that has a length and size advantage in the halfcourt.
DeMarre & Leo's Points Per Shot. A high points-per-shot figure means one of two things: 1) either you're shooting a very high % from the field, or 2) you're drawing fouls and making free throws. DeMarre and Leo (and the team as a whole, clearly) will have to either shoot very efficiently or draw some fouls for Mizzou to score enough points today. That 17-foot jumper has to be going through the net. If it's not--if either or both of them start out pretty cold (because you know they'll both take a couple mid- to long-range jumpers pretty quickly--they always do), and if Mizzou isn't drawing fouls off of Thabeet and/or Adrien, then Mizzou might find themselves in trouble because, well, they will get outrebounded in this game.
The last five minutes of the first half. The rules for Missouri games have somewhat changed in the NCAA Tourney--until a week ago, the goal for Missouri was not to find themselves down big at half, then watch the opponent melt down in the second half. Now, it's been "kill 'em in the first half, hold on for dear life in the second." Whichever of the two trends emerges against UConn, the last five minutes of the first half (or, roughly speaking, Round 5 of the 10-round fight) will determine the way the second half unfolds.

In Mizzou losses, opponents have sprinted to the finish and turned an 8-12 point Mizzou deficit into a 15-19 point deficit. In the NCAA Tourney, it's been the exact opposite. If Mizzou's bench comes ready to play, they can take advantage of a UConn lineup that's breathing pretty heavily, so I guess you could say that a big first-half performance from Kim English, or Marcus Denmon, or Justin Safford, or Laurence Bowers, or more than one, could make the game for Mizzou.

Prediction

As I've mentioned before, I tend to try to project a pace and a Points Per Possession figure for each team, then figure out what that score projects. (Possessions x Points Per Possession = Points.) I'm at a complete loss to project Mizzou's points per possession in this one. It's been so high all year, and it was through the roof against a very good Memphis team. But as high as Mizzou's PPP has been, UConn's opponents' PPP has been equally low. I'll more or less split the difference and say that Mizzou will end up around the 1.05 PPP mark. They really could end up anywhere between about 0.95 and 1.15.

Meanwhile, I think UConn has a bit more margin for error (just like I said Memphis did). They'll most likely fall between about 1.03 and 1.13). So we'll say 1.08 for UConn. At a pace of 72 possessions, that's UConn 78, Mizzou 76, a prediction quite similar to mine for the Memphis game. And the Memphis game worked out just fine, wouldn't you say? So 78-76 UConn it is.

Like most Mizzou games, a comfortable margin of victory is likely no matter who wins--Mizzou pressing the pace means larger momentum swings both ways, and when you think about it, Mizzou just hasn't played that many truly close games this year (Marquette, KU, @Texas, @OSU, @Nebraska, Xavier...and that's about it?). They've come through big-time in the clutch, and I like their chances here, but if they play 10 times, UConn probably wins 6-7, and I'm playing the odds here. Prove me wrong, boys.

(Oh yeah, and be sure to confess your sins.)

Crossfire: UConn Q&A

RPT — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 20:45:08 -0000

As a blogger, you can't afford to bring your B-game when your basketball team is deemed "Elite." So, we're stepping up our game for the West Regional Final by turning to Justin from the rather excellent TheUConnBlog.com for a closer look at what to expect from the Huskies on Saturday.

RMN: Give us a couple of the primary storylines for UConn so far this tournament.

Justin: Aside from the alleged major recruiting violations?

There have been a few, but the major one has been how UConn would fare without Jerome Dyson. Ater Majok, Charles Okwandu and some guy named Nate Miles were ruled ineligible, for various reasons. And then Dyson went down and it seemed like the title hopes were over, especially after losing the last two games heading into the tournament.

But Stanley Robinson has finally begun to realize his potential the past month or so. Robinson, who spent the first semester working in a factory in Willimantic, was the most consistently inconsistent player his first two-plus seasons and caused all sorts of headaches for us. But he's scored in double digits the past four games and given back some of the scoring we lost when Dyson went out.

And some smaller lines include Craig Austrie actually doing something productive, A.J. Price dominating like he did last year and the team looking better than it ever has the first two games (won by a combined 82-point margin).

RMN: How is UConn's depth? Is UConn well-conditioned enough to run with the Tigers for 40 minutes?

Justin: UConn's bench is pretty shallow, especially after Austrie was inserted into the starting lineup to replace Dyson. They use basically a seven-man rotation, with Gavin Edwards and Kemba Walker in reserve, and you could probably categorize it as a weakness.

But it seems to be one of those things that you would think would hurt them more than it does. Of the game's they've lost, I wouldn't say any were because of depth, and you could always point to the six-overtime game as evidence that they can keep up with Missouri.

Then again, no team has pushed the tempo like I expect the Tigers to. So it just may prove problematic Saturday.

More questions with Justin after the jump.

RMN: Is UConn's starting five good enough for the bench not to matter? And, in watching UConn, Price seems to be the X-factor. If Price goes off, does Missouri have any shot?

Justin: The starting five is probably one of the best in the country, even without Dyson. Like I said in the previous answer, the short bench hasn't been an issue so far, and the starters' talent is probably why.

As far as Price, he is what makes the team go. Without him, I don't think they would have made it this far. Last season, he pretty much carried the team to most of its victories, and he's starting to do some of the same the past few games.

But Missouri can certainly win if he goes off. Price is basically their only 3-point shooter and probably the only one that can create off the dribble. So you would think if they shut everyone else out, they could easily take UConn down. It's tough for everyone to do much unless Price puts them in the right positions.

RMN: How exactly do you attack UConn's defense? Does Thabeet's presence essentially relegate teams to outside shots?

Justin: Well, there's basically two ways to take down Thabeet.

The first would be through outside shooting. Dyson was UConn's best on-ball defender, and even with him, their perimeter defense was pretty poor. So you could feasibly render him useless by spreading the floor and by either shooting or driving the lane from the outside. Which is why we were so afraid of Memphis. Although Mizzou is almost like Memphis on steroids on offense, so we didn't really dodge any bullets there.

The other is by going right at him. Missouri might not have the size or the post presence to do so, but DeJuan Blair was able to have great success against UConn because he went right at Thabeet in the post. Thabeet still can't handle when opponents get in close and drive up into his body. The move also could get him into foul trouble, which is what happened in Pitt v. UConn 1.

RMN: Finish the following statements:

Justin:

- UConn will win if: A.J. Price continues to carry the load on offense and if Thabeet is able to continue to dominate defensively. The whole defense is built on filtering everything into Thabeet, so if he can't get going, Missouri could have great success.

- Mizzou will win if: If its offense can take Thabeet out of the game and if their short bench ultimately proves to be a problem against the Tigers' fast pace.

RMN: Feel free to retort to and/or effusively praise the "Better Know an Opponent: Connecticut" post written by one of our members.

Justin: The post was quite accurate, and I actually learned some stuff. (Who knew there were things bigger than towns? Next you're going to tell me that you have more people than cows at your college.)

As a retort, I would like to quickly point out that Missouri's school color looks like a mixture between poo and Grey Poupon (ed. - True), Harry Truman probably wouldn't be pleased that you've chosen to embody his legacy in Tony the Tiger (ed. - it beats his legacy in Japan), and although I know very little about Chase Daniel, he looks like schmuck (ed. - argument sustained).

However, I must applaud the fact that you take your 1970s TV mini-series so seriously and that you think so highly of your journalism program you send color analysts to fire head coaches.

RMN: Bonus Question! Nate Miles: Great Husky, or the greatest Husky?

Justin: Well, Coach Cal would probably want me to remind you that Miles never actually played for the team. Because it's an air-tight argument to dispute recruiting violations.

But had he played, he probably would have been a high-character guy. A Latrell Sprewell-type team player, I think.

Proud to be a Boilermaker

BoilerTMill — Fri, 27 Mar 2009 13:39:50 -0000

I am proud to be a Boilermaker today.

I never thought eight words would mean so much to me. When I was born, I came home from the hospital in a Purdue outfit. I can't even remember a time when I haven't watched Purdue sports. Standing in my living room last night though, with tears beginning to flow as I heard the Paint Crew members that went all the way to Arizona give us one final Bobby Buckets chant, those words gained an even more poignant meaning to me. My eyes are even getting a little misty this morning thinking about it again.

J Money gets it. There are normal people, then there are sports fans. For people like us our teams become an extension of ourselves. We live by them. We feel like we know the guys. I know that is true about this group of young men. Because of this blog I feel like I know them better than any other team. I have written almost daily about them since November. They have been what sports need to be: a pleasant distraction at times when we need them the most. They have allowed me to vent so many personal frustrations and re-direct so much pent up energy that I literally do not know what I would do without them. Dammit I am proud of these guys today.

Remember this moment, fellas. We will be back to avenge it.

Last night that Buckets chant said so much about who we are as Purdue fans. Over the course of the open thread here and the Liveblog that the UConn Blog was doing, the Husky fans continued to comment how we simply refused to go away. Even in the final minutes, with the game well decided, we did not give up. Instead of an arena filled with UConn fans cheering their team's advancement to the elite 8 what did we hear on the broadcast?

BOBBY BUCKETS!!!

Clap clap clapclapclap

BOBBY BUCKETS!!!

Clap clap clapclapclap

How can you not be moved by that? I admit we got our asses handed to us by a bigger, stronger, better team. UConn hit the shots they needed to hit. Thabeet thoroughly disrupted our offense. Price hit some very tough shots and Austrie hit some absolute back-breaking threes. Still, in face of everything, here are some select comments from UConn fans during the liveblog in the final minutes.

gxpanos: You guys play GREAT D, though, T-Mill. You'll be around in the Big 10 next year.

GoHuskiesGo: I think Purdue can dominate the Big Ten because they play BASKETBALL

GoHuskiesGo: Hey T-Mill- your kids wont die. its irritating.

Jesus Shuttlesworth: man, purdue just does not go away.

GoHuskiesGo: I'm very impressed by Purdue

Jesus Shuttlesworth: yeah, and considering they're all coming back, you have to think this team can do some damage.

Those statements just mean so much to me as does the Paint Crew last night. I will always remember that. Even in defeat we were still there, and we made my original prediction came true. At 9:25 last night, UConn did respect us.

BOBBY BUCKETS!!!

Clap clap clapclapclap

BOBBY BUCKETS!!!

Clap clap clapclapclap

Positives from the UConn game:

All of the above - Well, obviously. Last night was the first time this season where I really felt the general youth of our team. Maybe it is because the Big Ten in general was so youthful this year. Connecticut's experience made as much of a difference as Xavier's did in last season's tournament. They had that little extra push from it. They knew when to get in a passing lane, when to change tempo. They understood all the little nuances of the game that only experience can bring. A prime example was the fast break we had when down four and LewJack was looking for the open layup. Price knew exactly where to be, intercepted the freshman's pass, and it ended up being a dunk the other way. It was a four point shift and psychologically was a killing blow. The ability to get the lead under three almost became a mental barrier, and that (other than Keaton's second half layup that rimmed out, failing to cut it to one) was our best chance.

Robbie Hummel (first half edition) - Robbie kept us alive last night. Nothing was falling early on except for Robbie's shot. I don't know if it was the atmosphere of essentially shooting in a warehouse or what, but that was about the worst possible start we could have had last night. UConn basically won that game in the first six minutes by grabbing a 14-3 lead. Honestly, it could have been a whole lot more too. UConn did a great job of taking Robbie out of the second half.

Bobby, Nemanja, Marcus, and Chris - Although the circumstances were obviously not the best, all four got to play last night in the final games of their careers. Marcus had a very nice layup by collecting a tough pass on a fast break. Buckets gave us one more three to remember him. Chally had a bad night offensively, but I was very proud of the way he worked against Thabeet and got some tough offensive rebounds. Chris only got in in the final minute, but I know his contributions in practice will be missed. I know I speak for all Purdue fans when I say I love these guys, and I will miss them. Thank you.

The Paint Crew - Thank you guys for traveling last night. I am so envious of you right now it is not even funny. I remember watching the first Penn State game back in January and you guys took over their arena with a group not even 100 strong. You took over Glendale last night. I am proud to have you guys representing our University.

Negatives from the UConn game.

That one little bounce - I feel that is all we needed last night to turn the game around. The biggest moment, to me, was the open drive Keaton Grant had to the basket. We were down three at the time and we had actually pulled Thabeet away from the rim. Keaton had an easy layup, but it just barely rimmed out. We had been unable to get it under three despite several chances at that point, and if that shot drops it cuts it to one. That came with 15:35 left, and UConn went on an 8-0 run after the miss. We never got it to three again.

Hasheem Thabeet - He was the difference last night. He completely disrupted our offensive flow. We were afraid to attack him, and when we did attack he showed how smart he was by not fouling on a block. This was honestly a very poor matchup for us because of his size. He is a true 7'3". Many guys that are that tall aren't nearly as athletic as Thabeet is. I know I was impressed. I think without his disruptions we have a real shot because every time he was away from the basket or on the bench we looked good offensively. Yes Austrie hit three daggers threes. Yes Robinson was tough down low. Yes Price hit some tough drives, but it was Thabeet's physical presence that made the biggest difference. He played 36 minutes last night when he normally only averages 32. UConn needed him that badly. I have a feeling that facing a super-sized player like Thabeet will be our weakness, but fortunately not many teams have him.

36.4% - That was our shooting percentage last night. We shot 6 of 23 from the three point line, and one of those makes was from Buckets in the last 20 seconds. It was the one night we could not afford to have a poor shooting night. Thabeet played a large role with blocks or "influences", as I like to call them. Defensively we did everything we needed to do. If the game is close I think we keep them around 60 points because free throws in the last five minutes pushed it out. UConn didn't have a made field goal in the last six minutes, but they hit 15 of 18 free throws in that time.

Up next:

I know the future is very bright for us. Next year can easily be a Final Four year, with 2011 being a year in which I think we will have our best chance ever at a National Championship. There are many factors in thinking that. I think the talent we have coming in is better than the talent we have leaving. I think another year of experience will greatly help us, especially if we can bulk up in the weight room. It will help LewJack running the point especially. I also think that the Big Ten, with all its young sophomore talent, will only get tougher, and that will make us even better come tournament time.

I know a lot has been made about the Big East being a mega-conference, but they have delivered in this tournament. They won all three games they were a part of last night, making an all-Big East Final Four a real possibility. There is something to be said about conference toughness, and that could be the Big Ten next year. UConn was clearly the better team last night. I was very impressed with their defense, but I think that can be us in a year or two because most of the time JaJuan is going to be as big of a matchup problem for other teams as Thabeet was for us.

We will learn from this game. Depending on the outcome of tonight's game we might be able to say that we have played five of this year's Elite 8 at some point in the past two seasons. Had Duke and Xavier won last night that number could have been seven. As it is, we have now played seven of this year's sweet 16 in the past two years, and only one of those teams was in our own conference. We have taken our lumps, going 3-7 against the likes of Louisville, Michigan State, Missouri, Duke, Oklahoma, UConn, and Xavier, but we will learn from these games. I am very proud of where we are, and very excited about the future, but it still doesn't mean I am not upset over losing a game we very easily could have won if a few things are different.

As for the blog, I'll still do some basketball stuff as long as the women are still playing. I am leaving for Miami on Wednesday, and I may be doing some stuff for SBNation's Miami blog the Seventh floor in that time since I am going to a baseball series down there, but I don't know yet. Through the spring I'll be talking about Purdue baseball, as well as Spring practice. I have another series idea as well that is similar to last year's Best Wins of the Tiller Era. Over the summer it will be team and unit previews as we gear up for football as well.

I do want to thank everyone for stopping by and making the midseason transition over here to SBNation so successful. I wouldn't be here if not for two groups of people: you the readers and the teams themselves. I thank you both.

Happy Sweet Sixteen!

Zach B — Thu, 26 Mar 2009 18:40:32 -0000

It felt like it would never get here but the Sweet Sixteen has finally arrived and Gonzaga has distinguished itself as one of the top teams in the nation. Even though Gonzaga doesn't play until tomorrow night, there are some tremendous matchups going on today. While people have been complaining about the lack of mid-majors in this tournament, no true college basketball fan can be upset with the teams in the Sweet Sixteen. Sure we are missing the cute stories of Davidson or Western Kentucky (thank God) or George Mason, but all it means is that the power teams are just that good. It's actually quite surprising that the tournament has been pretty chalk up to this point because I can't remember a season with as much parity as this one.

While the two early games today (Purdue v. UConn/ Xavier v. Pitt) do not have whole lot of star power, the late games today should be absolutely loaded with intrigue. Missouri v. Memphis should be a track meet filled with some of the best athletes in the nation. As Gonzaga folks, we have come to have a respect for Memphis since they have dominated the Zags in virtually every matchup, but that did not stop me from taking Missouri in this game. I love Mizzou this year but I am always a little worried about picking against John Calipari. The last game to tip tonight matches the team that everyone loves to hate (Duke) against the team that no one really knows much about (Villanova). 'Nova has always impressed me this season but it is odd to have a team in the Big East be that good and not really have big name players. They have Scottie Reynolds but the last time Villanova was this deep in the tourney we were talking about players like Randy Foye, Allen Ray, and Kyle Lowry. It all leads to the fact that their head coach Jay Wright is one of the best in the business and by far the most well dressed coach in the nation. Duke on the other hand, we know way too much about. They have two sensational players in Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler but other than that it is a bunch of mediocrity. Their lack of an interior presence forces me to take 'Nova over Duke in this game. Sorry, Dickie V.

The two ealier games should have UConn and Pitt both dominate Purdue and Xavier but after seeing Purdue take down Washington, I'm starting to think that they might just be the Husky killers. JaJuan Johnson is a tremendous low post presence and Purdue is an extremely smart basketball team and so talented on defense, led by Chris Kramer. I think the Boilermakers will give them more of a game than people think but in the end, A.J. Price will be too much and UConn will advance. Pitt really got lucky. If they were playing any other team in the Sweet Sixteen, I would pick against the Panthers. They have been the least impressive one seed thus far in the tournament which is saying something because Louisville has been very average too. I'm just not impressed by Xavier however. I don't think they stand a chance especially if Pitt finally figures things out. Pitt will win this game but I'm staring to have less and less confidence in the team that I picked to win the entire thing.

Feel free to come by during the games and chat or leave your thoughts and your picks for tonight's games. They should be excellent to watch!

What the Enemy Thinks: Sitting Down with the UConn Bloggers

BoilerTMill — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 14:11:35 -0000

My regular readers know that the Big Ten group here takes great pride in its roundtables. While I and Boiled Sports carry the Purdue banner, we are almost literally overrun with representatives from Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan. Today we step outside our small circle of friend to talk with three bloggers who are dedicated to following tomorrow night's opponent: Connecticut.

David Gillett publishes the Blog UConn Huskies basketball and was kind enough to give me a small space on his blog this morning.

Justin Verrier is the publisher of the UConn blog and posted my answers to his questions yesterday (as scooped by the handsome devils at Boiled Sports).

Matt Stout is a writer for the Norwich Bulletin out in Connecticut, so he is much like me in that he is a real journalist on the side fighting undercover as a blogger. He publishes Matt's UConn blog.

These three gentlemen were kind enough to sit down and talk about UConn with me this week. I presented the same questions to each one and here are their answers in roundtable form. I also did a very quick paragraph for Searching for Billy Edelin on why Purdue will win the West Region.

T-Mill: UConn is another team battling injuries, but that appeared to have little effect in the early rounds. Was this a case of true recovery, or just playing two poor opponents?

Matt: Truthfully, I don't think UConn can really be characterized as a team "battling injuries." The Huskies have essentially had one (Jerome's Dyson knee injury), though it was as significant a blow that the program has faced entering the postseason in Jim Calhoun's tenure. I think what we've seen over the two first-round wins was a recovery of that. A.J. Price's emergence as a bigger offensive force in place of Dyson was apparent in the weeks before the NCAA tournament, but he's taken that to a different level. Stanley Robinson, for the first time this season, has seemingly found a nice offensive groove, and his growing assertiveness is just a big a factor as Price's. Then of course, there's Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet, who have provided points when needed and provided the expected balance inside to Price's outside game.

Most importantly, however, with UConn's offensive improvement, the Huskies have found that swagger they needed. Dogged by questions of postseason failure for weeks, they have looked like the most impressive team in the tournament through two rounds. You can argue that others have faced tougher competition, but I wouldn't call Chattanooga or Texas A&M "poor teams." They're NCAA tournament teams and two of the best in their respective conferences. Chattanooga never really had a chance, even on paper, but UConn's ability to dominate Texas A&M speaks more to what the Huskies did than what the Aggies couldn't.

David: While UConn did lose a key part of their backcourt, they are playing some of their best ball at the right time. While Chattanooga and Texas A&M had a great year, they had no one to match-up with UConn's strong frontcourt. It didn't hurt that Price was draining shots from the perimeter, which makes this team even more deadly and both their opponents had poor shooting nights.

Justin: I think it was a little bit of both.

Chattanooga probably should have been in the play-in game, and although Texas A&M took down Mizzou in the regular season, they are a pretty bad offensive team that finished just 9-7 playing within a Big 12 that was pretty bad this year.

It was certainly a good way for the Huskies to set the tone in the tourney, and it really made everyone forget about Jerome Dyson and some of the losses recently.

But "recovery" also may be a bit much. Although they'd dropped two games to Pitt, and lost that whole soul-crushing six-overtime game to Syracuse, I don't think they've had two really poor performances in a row all season. Their toughest games just happened to coincide with the loss of Dyson.

At the same, though, I don't think anyone expected UConn to beat either team the way they did. The Huskies hadn't looked that impressive probably since blowing out Louisville in early February

T-Mill: This is a matchup of very versatile teams. It looks like you can run if you want to, but so can we. We can stop and play defense, but so can you. Which pace do you think favors which team?

Justin: I would have to say a fast one. Without Dyson, UConn doesn't have the outside shooters or anyone that can really create his own shot off the dribble in a halfcourt set.

Sure, A.J. Price can make some things happen, but after blowing out his ACL in last year's tourney, he's not the same; he just can't take over a game the way he used to. And you would think someone 7-foot-3 would be able to dominate in the post, but sadly, Hasheem Thabeet is plagued with what we call "Flubber hands" and he feels the need to put it on the floor every time even though he could just go on his tippy toes to dunk it. (Ed Note: this must be a cousin of Crisco hands, where the task of simply grabbing the basketball in open space becomes exceedingly difficult.)

But Coach Cal (what we call Jim Calhoun at The UConnBlog) talks every preseason about getting out and running. This season, I think they've done that. All seven rotation players, especially backup guard Kemba Walker, can run, and the team is at its best when they're running the floor and turning Thabeet blocks into easy transition points.

Matt: A fast-paced game favors UConn, not because Purdue can't run - and the Boilermakers can - but if the Huskies are running, that means they're rebounding and using the outlets. And if they're rebounding, then they're winning a battle that Purdue desperately needs in this game. (That also means another big game from JaJuan Johnson and a gritty effort from Robbie Hummel.)

UConn's halfcourt sets have looked 10 times more fluid and dangerous than they did even the week before in the Big East tournament, but if Purdue can force the Huskies to score the majority of their points in the halfcourt and late in the shot clock, it favors the Boilermakers. It will naturally create a lower scoring game, the same kind of contest Purdue has proven it can win in its late-season surge, and perhaps disrupt a UConn offense that has outscored tournament opponents by a combined 82 points.

Purdue is at its best when it is grinding things out. That's usually not the case in a track meet.

David: UConn wants a quick pace. The more chances they have at the basket, the better their chances of winning are. They'll use full court pressure to quicken the pace of the game. They've been really good at the half court game, but they make their runs in transition, and like to attack the defense before they settle. In the half court sets, Connecticut thrives against man-to-man defenses and plays the high-low with Adrien and Thabeet to perfection. It is in the zone that UConn tends to settle for bad perimeter shots and negates their advantage of their front court.

T-Mill: How much does the loss of Jerome Dyson effect your offense? Will it be a bigger deal agaisnt tougher competition this weekend?

David: The loss of Dyson hasn't affected their offense, as much as it has affected their defense. He was always matched up against the team's deadliest shooter and he had a knack of getting steals. If this team misses anything from Dyson's absence on offense it would be his ability to finish on the break and attack the zone with dribble penetration. Kemba Walker has emerged as UConn's best perimeter defense and Craig Austrie has put together back-to-back solid defensive games, and there has been enough time since Dyson's injury for this team to adjust for it not to make a major difference. The emergence of Stanley Robinson's offensive ability has also contributed to UConn's success without Dyson.

Justin: When Dyson went down, we all started to freak out a little. Big-time freshmen Ater Majok and Nate Miles were already forced out of the picture and backup center Charles Okwandu was ruled academically ineligible.

And for the reasons I mentioned before, it still affects the offense in a big way. But Dyson's loss has been eased somewhat by Stanley Robinson finally playing like everyone expected him to.

After almost three seasons of frustratingly inconsistent play, Robinson seems to have finally turned things around, having put up 28, 24 and 12 points the past three games. Losing Dyson hurts a lot, especially in a huge game like this. But Robinson may be able to help make up for what we lost in Dyson. Announcers point out his freakish athleticism about eight times a game, and finally, Stanley has turned it into productivity.

Matt: I may have already tipped my hand here, but Jerome Dyson's absence was the biggest story for UConn entering the tournament (other than their previous failed attempts to win in the postseason). Between UConn's offensive explosion and Jim Calhoun's health, the loss of Dyson has largely become an afterthought. If A.J. Price continues to provide a scorching presence from the outside and Stanley Robinson's emergence isn't limited to those first two games, UConn's offense will be as dynamic as it was last weekend. If Price has a tough shooting day, then the focus will likely turn inside, where Thabeet dominated against Chattanooga but was largely forgettable against Texas A&M.

Simply, with Dyson, UConn had a bevy of offensive options. Without him, the Huskies still do. It's about how well one part of the offense complements the other - with Stanley Robinson providing a dynamic presence in both areas.

T-Mill: Much has been made about the Big East being an all-powerful conference, while the media perceives the Big Ten as slightly above the SWAC at the moment. Do you believe UConn has reason to fear the Big Ten Boilers?

Matt: Of course UConn does. The Boilermakers won a conference that sent seven teams to the tournament, and are playing their best basketball at exactly the right time. Between Johnson, Hummel and E'Twaun Moore, they have weapons, and there's no reason to believe UConn is a shoe-in to advance. When it comes down to this particular game, conference ties mean little.

But I don't think anyone will argue that with five Sweet Sixteen teams, the Big East is the country's powerhouse conference, above the Big Ten, ACC, Big XII or any other league - SWAC included. That said, UConn will be favored here not because they played in the Big East but because they're UConn, one of the country's top teams with a top-five NBA draft pick in the middle, one of the country's most experienced guards at point and weapons around them.

David: UConn has struggled in games against Buffalo and Michigan, so they have a lot to fear from Purdue. In an one-and-done scenario, especially at this level, any team can beat each other. We, as a fan base, have experienced the David and Goliath fall with George Mason and San Diego still fresh on our minds. We fear the underdogs.

Justin: Well, to be honest, we've taken our shots on the Big Ten along with everyone else.

But with that being said, I'm terrified of the Boilermakers. JaJuan Johnson appears to be the type of player that can neutralize Thabeet, and Purdue has enough shooters on the outside to attack UConn's deficiencies guarding the perimeter. Combine all that with a defense that looks and has a reputation of being really tough, and Purdue has the type of team that has a legitimate shot at derailing another Coach Cal five-year plan. (We won our other two titles in 1999 and 2004.) (Ed, Note: What is he, Joseph Stalin? Is this a purge?)

T-Mill: What scenario on Thursday would have you the most nervous? Which would have you the most confident?

David: Thabeet in early foul trouble, Price missing the outside shot, and Purdue shooters having a lights out performance. That would be a recipe for a UConn disaster. For UConn to be successful, they need to make their free throws, have their front court stay out of foul trouble, shut down the perimeter shot, and need to make at least four three pointers to keep the defense honest.

Matt: If I was a UConn fan, I would be nervous if Purdue is rebounding with the Huskies, Hasheem Thabeet gets in early foul trouble and A.J. Price hits a cold streak. On the other hand, you won't find a team or fan base more confident than UConn right now considering what it did in the first two rounds. If the Huskies continue to do what they did against Chattanooga and Texas A&M - play well early, put together a big run at some point and continue to pound the glass and the scoreboard - then Purdue will have to do something extraordinary to pull the upset.

Justin: Considering all the problems we've had to overcome this season, anything that isn't a 20-0 lead to open the game would make me nervous. And even then I would be preparing for the bottom to fall out.

Worst-case scenario, though, is Johnson having success taking it at Thabeet, Hummel and E'Twaun Moore lighting it up from outside and Purdue slowing the game down and forcing UConn to win in the halfcourt.

Best-case is for the Huskies to come out hot, establish the inside game with Thabeet and Jeff Adrien early, have Price drain a few threes to stretch the floor and then for Robinson to play like he has the past few weeks and scream obnoxiously loud on authoritative dunks (you'll get that joke soon enough).

But that probably won't happen, so I just hope this team has enough fire power and enough grit to grind out what should be a tough matchup. One I can't wait to see.

T-Mill: Thanks guys! It sounds like we are all in agreement on what each team needs to do here. It may boil down to who is on their game that night, though UConn can likely survive being off more than Purdue.

Purdue: Know Your Glendale Travel Companion

Bill C. — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we looked at UConn. Today, the #5 seeded Purdue Boilermakers.

Purdue: 26-9

	Boilers	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.71	1.47
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.06	0.91
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.24	1.09
2-PT FG%	49.2%	41.7%
3-PT FG%	34.9%	32.8%
FT%	70.6%	67.2%
True Shooting %	54.2%	47.8%

	Boilers	Opp
Assists/Gm	15.0	12.3
Steals/Gm	7.2	5.3
Turnovers/Gm	11.6	14.9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	1.18

	Boilers	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	11.8	12.8
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	9.8	11.4
Difference	-2.0	-1.4

Where PU's good: Forcing turnovers, forcing bad shots, defensive rebounds, passing, ball-handling
Where PU's not as good: Offensive rebounds, overall points per possession and free throw shooting are only decent but not great

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
JaJuan Johnson (6'10, 215, So.)	14.42	0.54	13.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 1.3 TOPG
Robbie Hummel (6'8, 208, So.)	13.75	0.47	12.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 TOPG
E'Twaun Moore (6'3, 180, So.)	11.56	0.35	14.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 2.6 TOPG
Chris Kramer (6'3, 205, Jr.)	7.71	0.28	5.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.4 TOPG
Keaton Grant (6'4, 207, Jr.)	6.21	0.23	8.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 TOPG
Lewis Jackson (5'9, 165, Fr.)	5.34	0.23	5.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.0 TOPG
Marcus Green (6'4, 229, Sr.)	4.63	0.29	4.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.0 APG
Nemanja Calasan (6'9, 250, Sr.)	4.58	0.29	6.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.0 TOPG
Bobby Riddell (5'9, 163, Sr.)	2.23	0.32	2.3 PPG
Ryne Smith (6'3, 175, Fr.)	0.86	0.16	1.1 PPG
Mark Wohlford (6'0, 185, Jr.)	0.19	0.07	36 minutes
Chris Reid (6'9, 251, Sr.)	-0.23	-0.11	30 minutes

JaJuan Johnson is a much more physically dominant player than his weight would suggest. He's a great shot-blocker and shooter, though I guess really his rebounding leaves a bit to be desired considering he's PU's #1 post man.
Robbie Hummel, on the other hand, rebounds particularly well considering how much time he spends on the offensive perimeter. He's one of the team's best 3-point shooters and its best rebounder. Interesting combination. Purdue's three major seniors are their #7, #8 and #9 contributors. They'll only be better next year.
One thing quickly jumps out, though, when comparing this roster to that of UConn: size. Not a lot of it here...some height, but not a lot of weight.

What does Ken Pomeroy have to say?

You look at KenPom's stats, and you start to think the Purdue-UConn game is going to be about 63-58 one way or the other. Like UConn, Purdue is a defense-first team. They are a reasonable offensively efficient team--#57 in efficiency, #19 in turnover %, high assist-to-FG ratio--but they are in the Sweet Sixteen because of defense (and anybody who watched the last minute of Purdue-Washington can attest to that). They are #5 in the country in defensive efficiency, #9 in Effective FG% allowed, #10 in 2pt% allowed, and #25 in block%.

What are Purdue's weaknesses? They're only an average FT shooting team (#109), and they don't get to the line very much at all (#243). A good passing team can pick them apart (#279 in Assist-to-FG ratio), and as you would guess from all the sophomores contributing for them, they are not high in the experience ratings (#189). And as mentioned earlier, they just do not grab many offensive boards (#265). It's rare for a team to be so great defensively and so finesse- and jumper-oriented offensively, but that's Purdue.

Keys to the Huskies-Boilers Game

Purdue's offensive rebounds. Purdue's offensive rebounding ability vs UConn's defensive rebounding ability is the single biggest statistical contrast in this game. UConn has an extreme advantage here, and the Boilers will either have to get very hot shooting the ball, or they're going to have to find some way to grab some second-chance opportunities.
The hot hand. Points will be at a premium in this game, and neither team has a true go-to scorer--Purdue and UConn both have three guys averaging double digits, and the leading scorer seems to change from game to game. If somebody gets hot, especially from 3-point land (away from the blocked shots in the paint), one nice spurt of scoring could create the necessary distance between the two teams. Will that hot hand be AJ Price? E'Twaun Moore?
Size vs Speed. UConn's a really big team, Purdue not so much. They both play very well defensively, but can Purdue compensate for such a disparity in, um, girth? Hasheem Thabeet (7'3, 265) and Jeff Adrien (6'7, 243) will win any battle of size and muscle over JaJuan Johnson (6'10, 215) and Robbie Hummel (6'8, 208).

However, Johnson and Hummel will have a significant advantage in terms of speed and range. Johnson has decent shooting range, and Hummel actually seems to prefer the perimeter by far, having made the second-most 3-pointers on Purdue's roster. The winner of this mini 2-on-2 battle will probably win the game. If Purdue's skinny bigs can draw UConn's away from the paint, Purdue's options double or triple. If not, then Purdue's going to have to sink a ton of 3-pointers to win this game.

Prediction

Nevermind how well UConn played the first weekend of the tournament. It's ancient history. What clearly resides in the present tense, however, is that Purdue has much less margin for error in this game. UConn will likely dominate the glass on Purdue's side of the court, so Purdue either finds a hot shooter or loses. Hummel or Moore or maybe Keaton Grant can take a lot of pressure off of JaJuan Johnson if they can make some 3-pointers and open up the court a bit, but in the end I just don't think Purdue matches up well. Purdue's strengths are UConn's strengths, only the Huskies seem just a bit better in every category. This will be a halfcourt dogfight, but I expect UConn to end up advancing. UConn 69, Purdue 62.

Know thy NCAA Tournament Opponent Round 3: Connecticut Huskies

BoilerTMill — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 15:18:10 -0000

I think we are supposed to be quaking in fear. All I have seen this week is how good Connecticut has looked. They need to re-seed the tournament right now because they should be the number 1 overall seed. They need to book a reservation for Detroit right now because no one in Glendale is going to challenge them. One comment on a recent post here even said:

After seeing the monster who is Hasheem Thabeet and realize you do not have the size or the strength to play with Uconn, you'll immediately see that you guys are just outclassed. The athletes are just too much to handle for Purdue this time. You can throw in all the statistics you, bottom line 7'3" and a hall of fame coach doesn't lie. Sorry boys

The funny thing is that I am not afraid. We have faced teams with "better athletes" this year and held our own. We have faced dominant big men like Blake Griffin and Jon Brockman and done just fine. Sure, people say Griffin owned us in a win, but it's hard to lose when you shoot 39 more free throws than your opponent, and we still tookt hem to overtime. We have faced Hall of Fame coaches like Krzyzewski, Izzo, and Crean (kidding!) and have come out just fine. We may have lost some of those games, but I would say only in the Duke game were we outclassed. That was months ago. We are a different team now.

Is this where we tell Bob Barker, "The Price is Wrong, bitch!"?

There is little question that Connecticut is well coached and supremely talented. We will respect them, but we are far from afraid of them.

Record: 29-4, 15-3 Big East

NCAA Tournament Appearances: 29 (missed one tournament in last 10 years)

All-Time NCAA Record: 44-27 (Champions in 1999 and 2004)

All-Time Record vs. Purdue: 0-4 (Last meeting: unranked Purdue beat #16 UConn 73-69 on 11/28/92 in Springfield, MA)

2008-09 common opponents: Wisconsin (W 76-57), Michigan (W 69-61)

Notable games vs. 2008-09 NCAA Tournament teams: Wisconsin (W 76-57), Gonzaga (W 88-83 OT), West Virginia (W 61-55), Villanova (W 89-83), Louisville (W 68-51), Michigan (W 69-61), Syracuse (W 63-49, L 127-117 6OT), Pittsburgh (L 76-68, L 70-60), Marquette (W 93-82), Tennessee-Chattanooga (W 103-47), Texas A&M (W 92-66)

2007-08 record: 24-9, 13-5 Big East (lost 70-69 to San Diego in NCAA first round, breaking streak of 14 straight wins in first round)

Blog Representation: The UConn blog, UConn Huskies Basketball, Matt's UConn blog (each will have their say later this week)

It is safe to say that this is our next shot at national recognition. Based on some early preseason rankings the teams are about equal. We have obviously fallen from that lofty perch, but Connecticut has done nothing to move out of the top five all season long. I mentioned that we will not be afraid of them, but they certainly will not fear us. They are an elite national program with the profile and wins to match. They have faced some of the country's best teams and walked away the winner more often than they have lost. A major reason Pittsburgh is a number one seed is because they have given the Huskies two of their four losses. A third came in a six overtime classic against Syracuse two weeks ago in the Big East Tournament. The only other team to beat UConn was Georgetown. The Hoyas were a Final Four team two years ago that severely underachieved this season. They aren't exactly Sisters of the Poor and Blind. Even though the loss came at UConn it is far from a bad loss. At the time Georgetown was 9-1 and ranked 8^th. Afterward they went 5-15.

It is not a stretch to say those were a couple of UConn's worst games this season. If you match common opponents we only have two games of comparison, but they are two solid games. UConn defeated Wisconsin by 19 very early in the season to win the Paradise Jam down in the Virgin Islands. Michigan then played a strange non-conference game at Connecticut during a conference bye and hung with the Huskies before losing 69-61 in January. The Wolverines actually led by a point at halftime and were within five in the final minutes. We went 3-1 against those same foes, so we are certainly capable of competing.

Our biggest challenge on Thursday night will be rebounding. Connecticut's offense is very balanced with four players averaging in double figures (though Jerome Dyson and his 13.2 points per game is out for the season), but their rebounding is what keeps them in games. It is absolutely imperative that we limit them to one shot per possession as much as possible. 7'3" Hasheem Thabeet (13.7 ppg, 10.7 rpg) and 6'7" Jeff Adrien (13.9 ppg, 10.2 rpg) each average double-doubles every night. Thabeet is a natural shot blocker with his size, adding 4.4 blocks per contest. Hummel and Adrien are similar in size, but Thabeet has an advantage even over JaJuan Johnson. Beating them on the boards will be a matter of out-working them and getting in the proper position. We cannot be lazy. Every time a shot goes up we need to shove a butt right in their stomachs and get the right position. Boxing out is absolutely critical because we cannot win this game if Adrien and Thabeet are constantly beating us on the glass. Both of them are excellent offensive rebounders with more than 100 second chances on the season.

Thabeet is obviously an imposing physical presence, but the advantage we have is that JaJuan can draw him out of the lane. He is not nearly as effective away from the basket as JaJuan is. When we have the ball it will be important to attack the basket when JaJuan has the ball against him in the high post. This can eliminate his shot blocking defensive presence as well as his rebounding ability. Offensively we just have to keep him off the glass and keep their guards from penetrating.

6'2 senior guard A.J. Price is Connecticut's leading scorer at 14.6 points per game. He is also an excellent distributor with 4.8 assists per contest. The guy is an excellent scoring, slashing guard and is capable of dropping 30 points on anyone. He can play on the perimeter or drive. He has made nine 3-pointers already in this tournament and is shooting almost 50% from the field. As much as we need to concentrate on Thabeet and Adrien, Price is the catalyst that runs the Connecticut offense. Kramer will likely draw the assignment against him, but I can see us switching up defenders on him like we did against Stephen Curry, Kalin Lucas, and Talor Battle. He is a similar type of player to them, but he is probably better than all of them with more size.

Dyson's injury means Connecticut's bench is shorter than it has been most of the year. He hasn't played since a win over Syracuse on February 11^th though, so they have had plenty of time to adjust. 6'1 freshman Kemba Walker (8.7 ppg, 2.8 apg) is a promising young talent that helps run the show in the backcourt with Price. 6'9" forward Stanley Robinson (8 ppg) could be a major factor as well. If Connecticut goes big with Robinson, Thabeet, and Adrien it will be difficult to match their size.

Connecticut normally goes with just a seven man rotation. 6'3" senior guard Craig Austrie (7ppg) and 6'9" junior forward Gavin Edwards (4 ppg) round out their rotation. No one else plays more than four minutes per night. It is a smaller core than some of the teams we have recently faced, but let's face it, they are really, really good. We can't expect to tire Connecticut out. They are just fine with running and can comfortably score almost 80 points per night.

As with most number one seeds, it is difficult to find a weakness in Connecticut's game. They share the basketball (almost 16 assists per night), they rebound well, they don't turn it over much, and they are rarely in foul trouble. Things may be different if we can get them into a Big Ten slugfest, but they only average 13 fouls per game. Because of their short bench it could give us a big advantage if we can get them into foul trouble. That is why positioning is important on rebounding. If we can get proper position and grab a few over the back calls it can change the game's entire dynamic.

Getting them into a Big Ten slugfest does not mean an automatic win, either. Connecticut can play some defense. Holding a team under 60 points is pretty common for them. Their size allows them to adjust well to a slowdown pace because they can pound teams into submission with Adrien and Thabeet inside. We may actually be better suited running against them because it doesn't allow Thabeet to set up in the low post and swat everything away. Still, I would attack him directly. We must show we don't have any fear of going against him and draw some early fouls if we can.

This is going to be a tough one for us. I know we don't fear them, but that can only go so far. I am confident we can give them a game, but we will have to continue playing as a team with each piece complimenting the others. JaJuan has to draw Thabeet away from the basket on the offensive end and avoid foul trouble on defense. Robbie has to keep putting in work on the glass. If he can score more that will be a huge boost. We need Marcus to do all the little things when he is in there and avoid foul trouble. The same is true with Chally. Against dominant big men in Griffin and Brockman we were competitive, but battled foul trouble the whole game. Keaton and E'Twaun need to hit some threes to draw out their defense. Moore must also create his own shots and seize the moment. I saw it in his eyes out in Portland. I can feel E'Twaun has a big scoring game coming very soon. Kramer and LewJack need to lock in on Price and essentially make his life a living hell every time he has the basketball the same way they didn't let Kalin Lucas even call plays.

Teams beat Connecticut, not individuals. The last two times Connecticut has lost in NCAA play they didn't lose to teams with superior talent. Indeed, Connecticut had superior talent each time. San Diego and George Mason toppled them because they played virtually flawless team basketball against an opponent that occasionally (but not always) strays into a trap of NBA individuality. I do think this UConn team is different from those UConn teams though. They have learned from those losses and don't go intot hat "me first" mode as much. The challenge we present is that we play as a team like George Mason and San Diego plus we have pretty good talent.

The biggest keys, however, are to hit some shots and not allow them to own the offensive glass. I really like our chances if we can consistently limit them to one shot per possession. Unfortunately, I am also a realist. I believe we will give Connecticut a much closer game than people expect, but in the end their size will be a little too much. UConn 73, Purdue 69