SB Nation - Jerel McNeal

Previewing Marquette

Akula Wolf — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 22:31:06 -0000

More photos » by Phelan M. Ebenhack - AP

20 days ago: Michigan's Eso Akunne, left, fouls Marquette's Lazar Hayward, center, as teammate Anthony Wright helps during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the Old Spice Classic tournament in Lake Buena Vista, Fla., Friday, Nov. 27, 2009. Marquette won 79-65. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

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2009 Scouting Report / 2009 Game Plan
2009 Stats
2010 Roster
2010 Schedule

Marquette Offense '08-'09

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	51.2	85
Turnover Rate	16.5	11
Off Reb Rate	34.8	97
FTA/FGA	45.4	12

NC State bested Marquette in three of the four factors in their meeting last season but lost a close game thanks to a -8 turnover margin. This year's Golden Eagles profile about the same--their offense takes good care of the ball, while their defense steals the ball with great frequency--so the first step in avoiding the same outcome is keeping that margin closer to zero.

The second step is finding some way to slow the versatile Lazar Hayward. Marquette figured to take a performance hit after the departures of Jerel McNeal, Dominic James, and Wesley Matthews, three experienced, effiicient, and heavily-involved contributors a year ago. Instead they've hardly missed a beat in the early going, thanks largely (very largely) to Hayward's efforts, who has essentially told Buzz Williams, hey no sweat, I'll still do my thing and I'll replace one of those other guys on top of it.

	ORtg	eFG%	%Poss	%Shots
Hayward '09	114.1	53.0	24.0	27.2
Hayward '10	111.7	48.6	35.7	44.7

Remember, the average player uses 20% of his team's possessions and takes 20% of the shots. Hayward is pulling double duty, averaging 26 field goal attempts per 40 minutes, and has somehow managed to handle that efficiently, which is fucking insane. I suspect he is a robot. If he keeps this up in conference play, there's no way he is of this earth.

Anyway, my team of scientists here at BTP world headquarters has concluded that you will want to keep an eye on this dude.

Starters

David Cubillan (6-0, 175) -- After a dreadful year as a reserve in 2009, Cubillan's handling the move into the starting lineup about as well as could be hoped. But he hardly got a shot in edge-wise last season (13% of the shots) and that hasn't changed, so he probably won't be a significant factor.

Darius Johnson-Odom (6-2, 200) -- A juco transfer who played his high school ball at Wakefield in Raleigh. He's the only starter aside from Hayward taking more than 20% of the shots and he's been outstanding from three (15-30).

Dwight Buycks (6-3, 190) -- His value extends well beyond the court, as his last name, pronounced "bikes," allows for such headlines as Marquette Rides Buycks To 76-58 Win Over NC State.

Jimmy Butler (6-6, 215) -- Absurdly efficient with a really light workload a year ago, Butler's upped his involvement in the offense considerably this season and remains absurdly efficient. He does the majority of his shooting inside the arc and does it well, he's an excellent offensive rebounder, and he earns frequent trips to the free throw line.

Lazar Hayward (6-6, 225) -- In addition to all that fancypants scoring, which he likes to do from all over the floor, Hayward rebounds well at both ends of the floor, never turns the ball over, and oh yeah, has doubled his assist rate in '10.

Bench

Maurice Acker (5-8, 165), Jeronne Maymon (6-6, 250), Joseph Fulce (6-7, 205). Acker got heavy minutes as a freshman at Ball State in 2006 but found himself buried behind McNeal and James once he got to Marquette. Shot poorly as a freshman, well as a sophomore, poorly as a junior, and well again to this point in his senior year. Who knows with this guy. You're up, you're down, Maurice! Makes me want to pull my hair out, so I shaved my head.

Maymon and Fulce aren't likely to be too involved with the scoring.

Marquette Defense '08-'09

Four Factors	Percent	Nat'l Rank
eFG%	50.9	252
Turnover Rate	21.1	122
Off Reb Rate	30.7	85
FTA/FGA	30.1	38

The Golden Eagles lost several tall guys after the 2008 season and did not start a player taller than 6-6 in 2009, and not surprisingly their interior D went right out the window. Marquette opponents hit 50.3% of their twos. The Eagles defense held it together by forcing turnovers and limiting both offensive boards and free throw attempts.

Wednesday Notes: Ilyasova stars, Alexander works, De Colo and Adrien visit, draft rumormill

Frank Madden — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 03:20:32 -0000

Hey, it's real basketball: Ilyasova leads Barca to a 2-1 edge over Tau

ACB.com: Ilyasova stars as Barcelona down TAU Ceramica. The Spanish best-of-five finals continued with Barcelona seizing a 2-1 edge this afternoon in Catalonia. And after seeing fairly limited PT of late, former and possible future Buck Ersan Ilyasova got back to his best with 19 points (7/11 fg), nine boards and three assists in 25 minutes. Check out the game highlights above. Barcelona can clinch the Spanish title on Thursday afternoon at home. Also, Tom Enlund mentioned the other day that the Bucks are expected to make Ilyasova a qualifying offer, but don't read much into it. Ilyasova's QO is dirt cheap (about a mil) and he'd never take it, so it's purely meant to prevent Ilasyova from becoming an unrestricted free agent. The Bucks have had to make the QO the previous two summers as well, so it doesn't mean his return is suddenly imminent. Let's wait to see what happens with the draft and the Sessions situation first.
BUCKS.com: De Colo, Adrien headline potential second rounders. The Bucks didn't have any big names in on Monday, but two guys with definite second round potential did make it to the Cousins Center--UConn mini-bruiser Jeff Adrien and French point guard Nando De Colo. Adrien you might know from his four years in the Big East, where he was a poor (and skinny) man's DeJuan Blair--the same height, wingspan and standing reach...except 40 pounds lighter. If the Bucks go small at #10 then Adrien could certainly make some sense at 41. Meanwhile, De Colo made his second visit in two weeks, hot on the heels of an excellent showing at the Reebok Eurocamp in Italy. Dave Babcock, what say ye?

"He was here a couple of weeks ago. We liked him, but he didn’t have a chance to play against a point guard in that workout. So we brought him in today to go against McAlarney. Nando’s a good player. He’s another potential second round guy, so he’s got a chance."

I don't know anything about De Colo aside from the Jonathan Givony and Chad Ford scouting reports, but those seem pretty promising. Both came away very impressed by De Colo's performance in Italy, and we can only assume the Bucks have a more than passing interest given they've had him in twice now. Ford offers the dirt:

Scouts love his size and swagger, and he really shot the lights out during camp, making 65 percent from the field. While those who watched him in France all year worry he lacks the lateral quickness to defend the quicker guards in the NBA, he seemed to hold his own against Mills and, to a lesser extent, Beverley. De Colo was the other guy who looked like he could be a legit late-first-round prospect, with a few caveats. First, the word in the camp was that De Colo might have jumped the gun and signed a pro contract in Europe, which could keep him out of the league for a few years. Second, several GMs wanted to go back and take a closer look at his game film from this year. De Colo was up and down all year, and they want to get a better look at how his season went.

But overall, no one helped his stock more than De Colo. He went from a borderline second-round prospect to getting some legit buzz in the late-first to early-second rounds.
Bucksketball: Workout Reports. Jeremy has a nice compilation of the notable guys who have worked out in Milwaukee.
Enlund: What about the second round? There's nothing more enjoyable than overanalyzing Dave Babcock's draft commentary, so with that in mind here's today's soundbite:

"A couple weeks ago I would have said that I don’t know if there’s going to be a guy there we like, but I’m starting to feel better now that there might be," said Bucks director of player personnel Dave Babcock. "Just from what we’ve seen and then a couple of the guys that stayed in the draft will affect it. And, what we’ve seen in guys that we may not have been as high on earlier, we feel better about now."

So the Bucks are starting to like one of the guys they worked out? Off the top of my head, Pendergraph, De Colo, Carroll, McNeal, and Adrien come to mind as the obvious candidates. Which means they're probably picking some random dude I've never heard of.
Gardner: Alexander back in the gym. Joe Alexander's 08/09? Disappointing. No one has debated that including, Alexander himself. The good news? The dude has always thrived when people write him off.

"Joe walked in the gym and the first thing I noticed was how much bigger and stronger he had gotten," said Hammond. "We know that about Joe. We know that Joe is not going to sit and accept his fate. It doesn’t matter if it was something that happened extraordinarily well for him, he’s not going to accept that. That’s not good enough for him. Or, maybe in this case, where he looks back on the season and says I’m not happy with the result and you know when he comes back, he’s going to have changed."
I asked Scott Skiles in Vegas last summer if they specifically wanted Alexander to bulk up to play PF, but he said no--it wasn't the kind of thing he believed in doing. So maybe Alexander's taken it upon himself to again hit the weights or maybe Hammond is pumping Alexander up a bit in case they decide to move him this summer. Personally I hope he sticks around. His value right now is so low that he's not going to bring back much in a trade, yet he's hardly a lost cause. He's not going to be a star, but the tools and work ethic are there to be a contributor. At least that's what I'm telling myself.

Heytvelt, Downs Workout for NBA Teams Today

Zach B — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:43:06 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Micah Downs blocks North Carolina's Deon Thompson in the Sweet Sixteen. Today, Downs will be hoping to impress the Blazers. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Like our loyal reader GUnit pointed out yesterday, Micah Downs will be working out with the Portland Trailblazers today. A late addition, Downs is replacing Tasmin Mitchell, the forward out of LSU. He will be working out with Chris Johnson also from LSU, Omri Casspi from Israel, Jerel McNeal from Marquette, Greivis Vasquez from Maryland, and Chinemelu Elonu from Texas A&M. Aside from Casspi, all the players working out for Portland today are probably guys that will be projected in the second round or undrafted. The good thing for the six working out today is that Portland has a lot of picks to throw around. While Portland will probably be looking for a point guard in the first round, Casspi could be worth selecting with the Blazers 24th pick. You'll be hearing Portland's name a lot in the second round as they have four picks (#33, #38, #55, #56). It'd be great to see Micah remain in the Pacific Northwest and get drafted by the Blazers. Hopefully his work out goes very well and make sure to check BlazersEdge throughout the day as their writers will be at the workout today.

Also working out today is Gonzaga center Josh Heytvelt. JH has been projected as a mid-to-late second round pick and the Milwaukee Bucks will be testing him out today along with five other prospects. Josh has, much like Austin Daye, had some very mixed reviews throughout the pre-draft process. He got some raves during the combine and people were enamored with his size since graduating. The most recent review of Josh, however, was not so glowing:

Speaking of Gonzaga, several GMs were ranting about big man Heytvelt. "He looked completely disinterested," one GM said. "He was awful. He had his teammates urging him to compete harder. It was weird."

That was from ESPN's Chad Ford who has been covering the workouts. This makes you wonder about Josh's passion for the game, especially since he no longer has the option to come back another year. These three weeks could become very crucial for Josh because he is a guy that some think could be an end of the first round type guy but could also drop out of the draft. Milwaukee has two picks in this year's draft. With the tenth overall pick, Josh will not be the pick but if he impresses them enough, he could fit in as the 41st selection. Joining Josh in today's workout is UCLA's Josh Shipp, Miami of Ohio's Michael Bramos, Alabama's Alonzo Gee, West Virginia's Alex Ruoff, and North Carolina State junior Brandon Costner.

WTLC 2009 NBA Pre-Draft Coverage: OKC Thunder Work Out 12 Players

Mr Pappagiorgio — Sat, 09 May 2009 02:44:57 -0000

So you may have read about the Oklahoma City Thunder working out 12 players who will be part of the 2009 NBA Draft, in Darnell Mayberry's Thunder Rumblings Blog. The list of players, as you will see below, isn't exactly the caliber of player we would see the Thunder taking at #25 overall in the first round. Being as we only have two picks during the draft this season, both of which are first rounders, one might beg the question, why are the Thunder looking at these players? If you are, you are not the only one, some of the regulars who frequent the OKC Thunder Fans Forum, are wondering the same thing. One of our semi-regular commenters here at WTLC, A.D., brought up the point that they are working these guys out as likely free agent signings after the draft. While that is one good theory, WTLC has another theory that wasn't brought up during the thread linked above.

In THIS POST, which was made earlier in the week, we made the argument that at least 5 players, possibly 6, would probably not be returning next season, along with 2 more possibly headed for a season in Tulsa to gain experience and develop their game by getting substantially more playing time than they would be if they were sitting on the Thunder bench. So when considering that, and the fact the two of those guys are still sitting on contracts (Atkins and Watson), you can begin to put the pieces together as to why the Thunder might be working out some of these players, and although some may be looked at for post draft free agent signings, perhaps others are being looked at for 2nd Round Draft Choices. Did that get your attention? Thought so, now make the jump...

Before we get any further, I'm sure you are wondering who the 12 players are, right?

...from Thunder Rumblings. (Link at the top of this post)

Oklahoma State’s Terrell Harris, Texas’ A.J. Abrams, Marquette’s Jerel McNeal and USC’s Daniel Hackett headline this first group, which is filled with guards and has only one player listed taller than 6-foot-6.

Other players include: Jack McClinton (Miami), Paul Delaney (UAB), Jermaine Taylor (UCF), Garrett Temple (LSU), Courtney Fells (N.C. State), Josh Carter (Texas A&M), Joe Ingles (Melbourne Dragons) and Aaron Jackson (Duquesne).

So now you see why everyone is sort of wondering why the Thunder worked out these twelve players huh? We'll, lets jump in. Like we mentioned before, the Thunder have two guys in Earl Watson and Chucky Atkins that are likely to be traded and that could happen during the draft itself. The Thunder have value in the sense that both of these guys are expiring contracts and either one could likely be traded to a team looking to focus on creating room for the free agent bonanza in 2010, and its not entirely out of the question that either one could be traded straight up for a 2nd round pick (More than likely a late 2nd round choice).

Another trade scenario is that the Thunder aren't in Love with anyone at the #25 choice and doesn't want to get involved with guarantees that go along with first round selections. On draft day you might see the Thunder trade this pick for a pair of 2nd round choices or even package Atkins or Watson together with this pick, for a veteran player with multiple years left on his contract, and a 2nd round pick. Perhaps the Thunder really like what they see out of several of these workouts, we might even see both of those scenarios play out. Can you imagine the Thunder trading the 25th overall pick, Chucky Atkins, and Earl Watson all on draft day during multiple trades to pick up 3 or so 2nd round picks? To be honest, that's a bit of a stretch, but what I'm trying to emphasize here is, that the Thunder may very well be looking these guys to draft, in the 2nd round, as opposed to post-draft signing or using up that #25 overall pick.

A very big reason why I think you will probably see a trade during the draft and the Thunder acquiring a second round pick is because a good number of these guys are projected to go in the 2nd round. Seriously, why would the Thunder be working out players who are almost definitely going to go in the 2nd round, like Jermaine Taylor who is projected to go as high as #41 over at NBADraft.net in their Full 2 round mock draft. There you can take a quick peak and see where they think some of these guys are likely to go. We all know Sam Presti isn't hesitant to pull the trigger on any deal he feels will help the Thunder, and I just can't wait to finally see what he ends up doing. What do you guys think? Are the Thunder looking to ditch their #25 pick and drop to round 2? Or are they looking to sign these guys to free agent contracts or as possible project players at their D-League affiliate, the Tulsa 66ers?

Also, what do you think about going after Marcin Gortat? Read our thoughts and comment here: Free Agent Targets: Marcin Gortat?

Like this article? You might like our EOS Series too! (Click a Picture below to read our Final Evaluations)

Mizzou 2008-09: A Statistical Look Back - The Team

Bill C. — Fri, 03 Apr 2009 14:00:13 -0000

It is time to take one last look at the stats from the 2008-09 Mizzou basketball season, and then bid adieu and wait for spring football (followed by college football magazine season, and then two-a-days, and then the season) to nab our attention.

	Mizzou	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.04	1.69
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.13	0.94
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.30	1.20
2-PT FG%	52.7%	46.8%
3-PT FG%	35.3%	30.3%
FT%	67.2%	67.4%
True Shooting %

	Mizzou	Opp
Assists	700	451
Steals	388	236
Turnovers	449	695
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.42	0.99

	Mizzou	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	491	490
Offensive Rebounds	486	484
Difference	-5	-6

This includes all cupcakes, so naturally the numbers are a hair inflated. In all, this pretty much wraps everything into a neat little bow--this was an okay shooting team that played great perimeter defense, rebounded in a mediocre fashion...and dominated every single facet of the game when a shot wasn't in the air.
Not only did opponents turn the ball over a lot, but they also weren't given a ton of baskets via ball movement--that's a paltry number of assists allowed. You could take some of Mizzou's defenders 1-on-1 if you were quick enough (Tyreke Evans, Jerel McNeal, Kemba Walker, I'm looking in your direction), but aside from a game here and there, you simply could not create many open shots through ball movement and patience.

You know what would be fun? If we could compare this Missouri team and its stats to Missouri teams of yore.

In fact, let's do just that.

Where did this team rank among Mizzou's best?

Thanks to a couple of different websites (including Ben Vollmayr-Lee's old site), I have Missouri's year-by-year team and player stats back to 1980-81 (29 seasons). I thought it would be fun to see where this team ranked in lots of different categories, compared to preview Mizzou squads. We'll start with per-game stats before moving to my preferred categories, the pace-independent per-possession stats.

Per Game Stats - Offense

Points Per Game

1. 1988-89 - 88.0
2. 1987-88 - 87.0
3. 1989-90 - 86.8
4. 2008-09 - 81.5
5. 1990-91 - 81.3

You're going to see this a lot--we talk about how fast-paced this Missouri team was, and they certainly were at times this year, but they could not hold a candle to those late-'80s teams. We'll call it the Billy Tubbs Era in the Big 8. Missouri was a plodding, methodical team in the early-'80s, and by about 1987, they played every bit as fast as Oklahoma and others in conference. Either way, this was the highest scoring Missouri team outside of the Billy Tubbs Era.

Rebounds Per Game

1. 1990-91 - 40.0
2. 1987-88 - 39.8
3. 2002-03 - 39.4
4. 2001-02 - 39.3
5. 1988-89 - 38.8
12. 2008-09 - 36.6

Right in the middle overall. Sounds about right.

Assists Per Game

1. 1989-90 - 20.0
2. 1988-89 - 19.1
3. 1990-91 - 18.9
4. 1987-88 - 18.4
5. 2008-09 - 18.4

The best-passing team outside the Billy Tubbs Era as well.

Turnovers Per Game

1. 2008-09 - 11.8
2. 1989-90 - 12.8
3. 1999-00 - 13.1
4. 2007-08 - 13.1
5. 2002-03 - 13.6

This team was a full turnover better than any other Missouri team in terms of turnovers. Ridiculously good. Combining high assists and low turnovers, you could possibly call this Missouri's best ball-handling team ever. That's what made them so good--yeah, they created chaos on defense, but they were completely in control on offense.

Blocks Per Game

1. 2002-03 - 4.4
2. 2001-02 - 4.3
3. 1990-91 - 4.3
4. 2003-04 - 4.3
5. 2000-01 - 4.0
7. 2008-09 - 3.7

Thanks as much to Keith Ramsey as anybody else, this was actually one of the best non-Arthur Johnson teams in terms of blocked shots.

BCI

1. 2008-09 - 2.42
2. 1989-90 - 2.17
3. 2007-08 - 1.91
4. 1987-88 - 1.82
5. 1999-00 - 1.73

As one would expect with what we saw in the assist and turnover numbers, this team was by far the best BCI team in Missouri's last 30 years. Two of the top three are Mike Anderson teams, and...we're seeing that 1989-90 team pop up quite a bit, aren't we?

Per-Game Stats - Defense

Points Per Game Allowed

1. 1981-82 - 59.7
2. 1983-84 - 62.8
3. 1982-83 - 63.4
4. 1998-99 - 63.6
5. 1980-81 - 64.9
7. 2008-09 - 67.7

As I mentioned, the early-'80s (the Stipo & Sundvold era) saw Missouri wield an extremely stifling half-court defense and ride it to three conference titles. The top three teams on this list were from that early-'80s period. But Mizzou's ridiculous scoring margin at home led them to being the #4 scoring offense in the last 29 years and the #7 scoring defense. That's, uhh, a pretty good combination.

Rebounds Per Game Allowed

1. 1982-83 - 27.9
2. 1983-84 - 29.2
3. 1981-82 - 29.5
4. 1984-85 - 29.9
5. 1985-86 - 31.2
22. 2008-09 - 37.1

Assists Per Game Allowed

1. 1980-81 - 10.2
2. 1981-82 - 10.5
3. 2008-09 - 11.9
4. 2007-08 - 12.3
5. 1993-94 - 12.5

It really is easy to see how opponents wore down. They couldn't create easy buckets off of ball movement, they couldn't force any turnovers of their own...

Turnovers Forced Per Game

1. 2006-07 - 18.9
2. 2008-09 - 18.3
3. 1990-91 - 18.0
4. 1999-00 - 17.7
5. 2007-08 - 17.1

Steals Per Game

1. 1990-91 - 11.5
2. 2008-09 - 10.2
3. 2006-07 - 10.0
4. 1998-99 - 9.1
5. 1991-92 - 9.0

Blocks Per Game Allowed

1. 1982-83 - 2.0
2. 1983-84 - 2.0
3. 1986-87 - 2.1
4. 1981-82 - 2.4
5. 1988-89 - 2.4
6. 2008-09 - 2.6

BCI Allowed

1. 2008-09 - 0.99
2. 2007-08 - 1.08
3. 2006-07 - 1.08
4. 1999-00 - 1.10
5. 1993-94 - 1.14

BCI! BCI! BCI!

Per-Possession Stats - Offense

Possessions Per Game

1. 1990-91 - 80.9
2. 1988-89 - 80.1
3. 1987-88 - 77.9
4. 1989-90 - 77.8
5. 1993-94 - 77.4
15. 2008-09 - 72.1

This might be the most shocking stat here. As much as we heard about how Missouri loves to push the tempo and push the tempo and push the tempo, the pace at which they played their games in the 2008-09 season was distinctly middle-of-the-road. A lot of 2008-09 was played in the halfcourt, and Missouri was able to kill there too.

Points Per Possession

1. 2001-02 - 1.13
2. 2008-09 - 1.13
3. 1987-88 - 1.12
4. 1989-90 - 1.12
5. 1988-89 - 1.10

Second-most efficient offense of the last 29 years.

Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempts (a.k.a. how good were they at getting to the line?)

1. 1995-96 - 0.51
2. 1981-82 - 0.51
3. 1980-81 - 0.50
4. 1986-87 - 0.49
5. 1984-85 - 0.49
23. 2008-09 - 0.37

Leo Lyons was one of the best in the country at drawing contact, but the rest of the team...not so much.

3-Point Shots Per Possession (since 1986-87)

1. 1999-00 - 0.36
2. 2001-02 - 0.33
3. 2004-05 - 0.32
4. 2002-03 - 0.31
5. 2000-01 - 0.31
10. 2008-09 - 0.27

Anybody shocked to see three Clarence Gilbert teams in the top five? Missouri wasn't particularly great at shooting the 3-ball, so it's good to see that they didn't shoot them at an exceedingly high rate.

Offensive Rebound Percentage (since 1996-97*)

1. 2001-02 - 7.9%
2. 2003-04 - 7.8%
3. 2002-03 - 7.4%
4. 2005-06 - 7.3%
5. 2000-01 - 7.2%
7. 2008-09 - 6.9%

* No offensive/defensive rebound splits until then.

Mizzou's rebounding mediocrity came on the defensive end of the ball--their offensive rebounding ability was above par. Oh, and once again the AJ era reaped severe benefits--he and Travon Bryant were on the prowl for four of Mizzou's top five offensive rebounding seasons.

Rebounds Per Possession

1. 2002-03 - 0.58
2. 2001-02 - 0.56
3. 2003-04 - 0.55
4. 2004-05 - 0.54
5. 2001-01 - 0.53
9. 2008-09 - 0.51

Assists Per Possession

1. 1989-90 - 0.26
2. 2008-09 - 0.26
3. 1982-83 - 0.24
4. 1988-89 - 0.24
5. 1987-88 - 0.24

Even putting aside tempo, this was as good a passing team as you'll see in black and gold. And basically the entire backcourt returns for 2009-10.

Turnovers Per Possession

1. 2008-09 - 0.16
2. 1989-90 - 0.16
3. 2007-08 - 0.18
4. 1999-00 - 0.18
5. 1987-88 - 0.19

BCI! BCI! BCI!

Steals Allowed Per Possession

1. 1999-00 - 0.08
2. 2007-08 - 0.08
3. 1993-94 - 0.09
4. 2008-09 - 0.09
5. 1982-83 - 0.09

Per-Possession Stats - Defense

Points Per Possession Allowed

1. 1981-82 - 0.88
2. 1998-99 - 0.89
3. 1990-91 - 0.90
4. 1980-81 - 0.91
5. 1991-92 - 0.91
7. 2008-09 - 0.94

Free Throw Attempts Per Field Goal Attempts (a.k.a. how good were they at preventing the opponent from getting to the line?)

1. 1981-82 - 0.29
2. 1984-85 - 0.29
3. 1991-92 - 0.30
4. 1985-86 - 0.31
5. 2002-03 - 0.31
24. 2008-09 - 0.40

Lots of shooting fouls.

3-Point Shots Per Possession Allowed

1. 1986-87 - 0.13
2. 1988-89 - 0.18
3. 1987-88 - 0.19
4. 1990-91 - 0.20
5. 1989-90 - 0.20
12. 2008-09 - 0.24

Offensive Rebound Percentage Allowed (Since 1996-97)

1. 2004-05 - 6.1%
2. 1999-00 - 6.4%
3. 2001-02 - 6.5%
4. 2003-04 - 6.6%
5. 2006-07 - 6.7%
7. 2008-09 - 6.9%

Rebounds Per Possession Allowed

1. 1984-85 - 0.42
2. 1982-83 - 0.42
3. 1985-86 - 0.42
4. 1988-89 - 0.43
5. 1981-82 - 0.43
21. 2008-09 - 0.52

Assists Per Possession Allowed

1. 1980-81 - 0.14
2. 1981-82 - 0.15
3. 1993-94 - 0.16
4. 2008-09 - 0.16
5. 2007-08 - 0.17

Turnovers Forced Per Possession

1. 2006-07 - 0.26
2. 2008-09 - 0.25
3. 1999-00 - 0.25
4. 2007-08 - 0.23
5. 1998-99 - 0.23

Steals Per Possession

1. 1990-91 - 0.14
2. 2008-09 - 0.14
3. 2006-07 - 0.14
4. 1998-99 - 0.13
5. 1999-00 - 0.12

Fouls Committed Per Possession

1. 2006-07 - 0.29
2. 2004-05 - 0.29
3. 2000-01 - 0.29
4. 1996-97 - 0.29
5. 2003-04 - 0.28
7. 2008-09 - 0.28

Shooting Stats - Offense

Points Per Shot

1. 1981-82 - 1.46
2. 1987-88 - 1.41
3. 1982-83 - 1.40
4. 1986-87 - 1.40
5. 1995-96 - 1.39
14. 2008-09 - 1.30

Average shooting team.

Field Goal %

1. 1982-83 - 54.0%
2. 1981-82 - 53.9%
3. 1988-89 - 52.4%
4. 1985-86 - 52.4%
5. 1987-88 - 52.0%
13. 2008-09 - 47.3%

Average shooting team.

3-Point FG %

1. 1987-88 - 42.0%
2. 2001-02 - 39.1%
3. 1994-95 - 38.8%
4. 1989-90 - 38.2%
5. 2000-01 - 38.0%
17. 2008-09 - 35.3%

Below average 3-point shooting team.

Free Throw %

1. 1996-97 - 75.8%
2. 1981-82 - 74.3%
3. 1984-85 - 72.9%
4. 1991-92 - 71.5%
5. 1999-00 - 71.0%
24. 2008-09 - 67.2%

Below average free throw shooting team. But we knew that.

Shooting Stats - Defense

Points Per Shot Allowed

1. 1981-82 - 1.05
2. 1998-99 - 1.09
3. 1980-81 - 1.10
4. 1991-92 - 1.12
5. 2002-03 - 1.12
18. 2008-09 - 1.20

Field Goal % Allowed

1. 1998-99 - 39.3%
2. 1992-93 - 40.4%
3. 2002-03 - 40.8%
4. 1990-91 - 41.3%
5. 1991-92 - 41.6%
7. 2008-09 - 41.8%

3-Point FG % Allowed

1. 2008-09 - 30.3%
2. 2007-08 - 30.9%
3. 1998-99 - 31.8%
4. 2000-01 - 32.1%
5. 1999-00 - 33.0%

An interesting mix here--opponents shot horribly from long range and poorly overall, yet averaged a decent number of points per shot. It all goes back to Mizzou allowing a lot of free throw attempts.

Tomorrow, we look at the players, and we play some fun games with similarity scores.

Mizzou-Cornell: Statistical Round of 32!

Bill C. — Sat, 21 Mar 2009 13:00:12 -0000

Yeah, no way am I not patting myself on the back for this one. Nailed it...for once. Poor shooting and paranoid offense (doing whatever it took to avoid a turnover) kept the first half slow and close. In the second half...not so much. Mizzou once again methodically wore their opponent down and pulled away.

NCAA Basketball Stats

	Mizzou	Big Red
Points Per Minute	1.95	1.48
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.26	0.95
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.32	0.92
2-PT FG%	59.0%	39.5%
3-PT FG%	25.0%	28.6%
FT%	89.5%	58.3%
True Shooting %	57.9%	42.6%

	Mizzou	Big Red
Assists	19	11
Steals	4	1
Turnovers	4	9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	5.75	1.33

	Mizzou	Big Red
Expected Offensive Rebounds	11	15
Offensive Rebounds	9	17
Difference	-2	+2

While Mizzou's BCI was thrown out of whack in the first half because of only one turnover, check out CU's:

First Half BCI: Cornell 2.00 (6 assists, 3 turnovers)
Second Half BCI: Cornell 1.00 (5 assists, 1 steal, 6 turnovers)
If there's a concern to take from this game, it's simply that Cornell rebounded well. A 4-board margin based on expected rebounds is pretty hefty, and while CU's actually bigger than Marquette, they're not that much bigger. Mizzou will simply have to rebound better on Sunday.

Player Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Leo Lyons	23.27	0.80	23 Pts, 10 Reb (4 Off), 2 Ast, 0 TO
DeMarre Carroll	18.46	0.60	13 Pts, 7 Reb, 5 Ast, 2 Stl, 0 TO
Kim English	13.11	1.19	13 Pts, 2 Reb
J.T. Tiller	9.72	0.34	11 Pts, 6 Reb, 6 Ast
Zaire Taylor	5.68	0.17	8 Pts
Keith Ramsey	4.48	0.32	4 Pts
Justin Safford	1.86	0.37	0 Pts, 3 Reb
Steve Moore	1.42	1.42	2 Pts
Michael Anderson Jr.	0.33	0.33
Jarrett Sutton	0.00	0.00
Marcus Denmon	-0.22	-0.01	2 Pts, 2 Reb, 2 Ast
Matt Lawrence	-0.33	-0.01	2 Pts (on 7 shots), 2 Stl
Miguel Paul	-0.44	-0.09

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

I think it's safe to say that anytime DeMarre and Leo combine for 7 assists and 0 turnovers, Mizzou's going to win the game. Combined with 13-for-23 shooting (9-for-9 from the FT line), 4 offensive rebounds (all from Leo), 13 defensive rebounds, 2 steals and a block (from DeMarre), and...yeah, Mizzou's senior bigs came through in a major, major way.
Kim English in the last two games: 5-for-8 from 3-point range, 5-for-5 from the FT line, 20 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover. It appears he's (however momentarily) plowed back through the freshman wall. Which is a good thing because...well, Goose was bad today. Really bad.
JT Tiller did have three of MU's four turnovers, but otherwise he had a Tiller-esque game: 11 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists...and Ryan Wittman went 2-for-7 from 3-point land.
So um...Laurence Bowers?

Keys to the Game Revisited

(From Monday's Preview)

The 3-pointer. Take Kim English out of the picture, and Mizzou shot 2-for-16 from 3-point land. That could have killed Mizzou against a better team, but luckily Cornell was pretty miserable too, going just 6-for-21. Harvard needed to go about 11-for-21 to have a chance.
The offensive glass. Cause for concern. Cornell grabbed too many of them, and Mizzou didn't grab enough.
Turnovers. Cornell only had 9 turnovers (4 from Mizzou steals), but according to Mike Anderson, they were so focused on holding onto the ball that they were quite distracted from actually running their offense, so...in a roundabout way this was still a winner for MU.

Marquette-Utah State

So while we eagerly await ghtd36's next Better Know an Opponent piece, let's check out what we can glean from Marquette beyond this week's earlier preview.

NCAA Basketball Stats

	Marquette	USU
Points Per Minute	1.45	1.43
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.01	0.99
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.23	1.08
2-PT FG%	42.9%	50.0%
3-PT FG%	26.3%	30.4%
FT%	82.6%	75.0%
True Shooting %	50.8%	50.4%

	Marquette	USU
Assists	7	11
Steals	4	2
Turnovers	9	9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.22	1.44

	Marquette	USU
Expected Offensive Rebounds	11	11
Offensive Rebounds	10	7
Difference	-1	-4

The Golden Eagles held a very strong offensive rebounding team to an extremely poor showing on the boards--if Utah State had just grabbed an average number of offensive boards, they'd have probably won the game. This could be a strength against Mizzou, especially if the Tigers are shooting poorly again.
Marquette managed only 7 assists in 17 FGs, and against a defense that allows a pretty high BCI, they had a pretty poor one.
Maurice Acker (Dominic James' replacement): 24 minutes, 5 points, 2 assists. Meanwhile, Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews shot 6-for-26 (1-for-9 frmo 3-point range) and had 3 assists and 7 turnovers. Almost no way do they play that poorly again on Sunday, but the turnovers are an encouraging sign, to be sure.
The game was played very much at USU's pace (62 possessions), and if Marquette's that susceptible to Mizzou's pace, this thin team (they played 7 guys against USU) will be dead tired with 10 minutes left.

Sunday prediction (since I clearly know what I'm talking about, ahem): Mizzou shoots poorly enough and Marquette rebounds well enough to take a lead into halftime, but (get this) Mizzou wears the Eagles down in the second half and moves on with a 78-69 win.

Marquette: Know Your Boise Travel Companion

Bill C. — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

I'm not going to go down the "I expect Mizzou to win the first round game, so let's look at who they may play in the second round" route. I'm not going to unleash the presumption jinx. But I do think it's safe to preview the other game in Mizzou's Boise pod: 6 Marquette vs 11 Utah State. First up, the 6 seed.

Marquette: 24-9

	Marquette	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.97	1.75
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.13	1.01
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.36	1.23
2-PT FG%	51.1%	50.3%
3-PT FG%	35.2%	35.2%
FT%	71.8%	67.6%
True Shooting %	56.6%	54.2%

	Marquette	Opp
Assists/Gm	15.1	13.9
Steals/Gm	7.9	5.8
Turnovers/Gm	11.3	15.0
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.03	1.31

	Marquette	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	12.0	12.8
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	11.6	10.2
Difference	-0.4	-2.6

Where Marquette's good: Passing, Free Throws, Rebounding, forcing turnovers. And for a guard-oriented offense that only shoots okay from 3-point range, they maintain pretty high FG% levels.
Where Marquette's not as good: FG% defense. If they don't force a turnover, they're probably giving up a pretty good shot.
This is a team that recently lost its senior point guard, Dominic James, to a broken foot. Since James got hurt and junior Maurice Acker took his place in the starting lineup, Marquette has lost five of six games. Bad, right? Well...maybe. Here are the teams to whom they've lost since James' injury: Connecticut, @Louisville (by 4), @Pittsburgh, Syracuse (in OT), and vs Villanova (buzzer beater). With James, they probably beat 'Cuse and maybe 'Nova or Louisville as well, but they still came close and are a streaky, dangerous team.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Jerel McNeal (6'3, 200, Sr.)	17.43	0.51	19.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.8 APG
Wesley Matthews (6'5, 220, Sr.)	17.42	0.53	17.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 2.5 APG
Lazar Hayward (6'6, 225, Jr.)	14.91	0.48	15.6 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.2 APG
Jimmy Butler (6'6, 215, So.)	7.06	0.37	5.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG
Dwight Burke (6'8, 250, Sr.)	2.75	0.15	2.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG
Maurice Acker (5'8, 165, Jr.)	2.69	0.18	2.7 PPG, 1.3 RPG, 1.8 APG
Patrick Hazel (6'7, 220, So.)	2.63	0.22	2.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG
Joseph Fulce (6'7, 205, So.)	1.75	0.36	1.5 PPG, 1.1 RPG
David Cubillan (6'0, 175, Jr.)	0.93	0.10	1.5 PPG
Chris Otule (6'10, 250, Fr.)	0.37	0.05	1.5 PPG, 1.3 RPG
Robert Frozena (6'1, 190, So.)	0.04	0.02	18 minutes

Naturally this list doesn't include James, who averaged 12.42 AdjGS/Gm and 0.39 AdjGS/Min. Statistically, the drop from James to Maurice Acker was relatively significant, but Acker showed a lot of potential in Marquette's last game, scoring 12 points in 30 minutes (3-for-4 from 3-point range), dishing 2 assists and grabbing 2 rebounds. He isn't James, but he might not be too bad.
With James, this team revolved around four guys; without him, it's down to three. McNeal, Matthews and Hayward will take seemingly every shot for this team, and the small bench specializes mostly in crashing the boards and briefly spelling the starters. But beyond just shots and points, McNeal, Matthews and Hayward dominate just about every non-rebound category. They are three very good player surrounded by non-statistical role players.
KenPom's ratings paint the picture of a Marquette team that is extremely efficient offensively (maybe just above average without James) and a defense that is solid but not amazing. They are short but very experienced (Butler and Hazel are the only underclassmen in the rotation) and rebound well for their size.

We'll see what Utah State has to offer tomorrow, but comparing Marquette to Mizzou, one of the biggest factors could be the bench. Marquette was #292 in the country in depth (measured by bench minutes), and that doesn't not really account for the fact that they are now that much thinner without James. If Mizzou and Marquette play, depth could play a major role in the outcome.

Tomorrow, we'll look at Utah State's roster, the keys to the Eagles-Aggies game, and a prediction.

Breaking Down the Brackets: West Regional Preview

rockchalk — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 08:12:56 -0000

Edit: The rest of the Breakdown has been entirely completed. Read it again, folks. Well, at least the part you've yet to read.

So, basically, this is how it's going to go. Me and Denver are splitting up the Brackets, each doing two. We'll be giving brief, profile-type information on each of the teams in the Regions, top-to-bottom. Then, we'll provide even briefer previews of each of the first round matchups, with potential glances towards future rounds. At the very end, we'll each give our personal predictions on how the region should break out. It should be a grand old time.

This is only the base of our NCAA Tournament Coverage here at RCT, though. We'll also (hopefully) be doing a Q&A with someone connected with North Dakota State, we'll be doing some interesting preview-type stuff, and, of course, there will be a KenPom preview of the Bison. Oh, shoot. I forgot they were the Bison. We're going to lose.

But that's neither here nor there. Currently, we're just focused on the West Region. No Bison involved, here.

So, we have the West Regional here. The bracket with the Two #1's, UConn and Memphis, as some people are calling it. Top-to-bottom, I've heard plenty of people saying it's the hardest bracket around. Not a consensus, by any stretch, as I've actually heard all four brackets the hardest of the bunch. But, it definitely has some argument as the most difficult.

All other information in a wildly informative, incredibly awesome preview after the jump. Please click the link. Just do it...

General Information

Here, in the General Information section, we'll just be posting the basics of the Regional. Like, how many Conference Champions, how many at-larges, site of the Regional, pods within the Region, etc.

Regional Site: Glendale -- University of Phoenix Stadium

Conference Tournament Champions: 9

At-Large Teams: 7

Power Conference Teams: 11 (including Memphis)

Mid-Major Teams: 5 (1 at-large)

Pods: Philadelphia, Portland, Boise, Kansas City

Interesting Facts:

The two most winningest teams in college basketball this year are both in this bracket (Memphis, 31 wins, and Utah State, 30 wins).
The team with the worst record, Chattanooga, is in the West.

The Teams

This section is the real meat of the Breakdown, and it is self-explanatory enough. We'll just rundown each team, giving you a snippet of information about each.

#1 Seed - Connecticut Huskies

Bid: At-Large - Big East

Location (Enrollment): Storrs, Connecticut (20,846)

Record: 27-4 (15-3)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 8/3/4

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 20th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 3rd

Key Offensive Stat: Off. Rebounding % (11th)

Key Defensive Stat: FTA/FGA (1st)

Player to Know: Hasheem Thabeet - C

When the season began, Connecticut was a preseason favorite to make the Final Four, and probably second-in-line to make a run at a National Title behind North Carolina. Now, even minus their best perimeter defender in Jerome Dyson, they are in about the same position. They are incredibly athletic, and can go 9-or-10 deep, if they want. However, they usually prefer to stick to a solid, 7-man rotation, tilted towards the big men. They pound you and pound you and pound you, and the only time they've been beaten in the past two months is: a) by Pittsburgh out-physicalling them and b) getting outlasted in 6 OT's. To beat them, you will have to out-tough them.

#2 Seed - Memphis Tigers

Bid: Automatic Bid - Conference USA

Location: Memphis, Tennessee (15,000)

Record: 31-3 (16-0)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin:7/1/2

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 39th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 1st

Key Offensive Stat: 3-Point FG% (262nd)

Key Defensive Stat: eFG% (1st)

Player to Know: Tyreke Evans - G

Coming into the season, just like Kansas, they were a complete rebuilding project. And, just like Kansas, John Calipari has made lemonades out of lemons, albeit supremely talented and long lemons. That's the key to Memphis: length. They are the best defensive team in the country because every single player possess Jay Bilas' favorite attribute to the nth degree, and they know how to use it. It's nearly impossible to ever get a good shot up over all of those long-ass tree limbs. However, their offense will go through serious periods of mediocrity, so they are beatable. You just have to be money from the perimeter, as those will be the only open shots you get, quite often. If not, no matter how inept they are occasionally on offense, you're going to lose. They're that incredible on D.

#3 Seed - Missouri Tigers

Bid: Automatic Bid - Big 12

Location (Enrollment): Columbia, Missouri (30,200)

Record:28-6 (12-4)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 11/10/10

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 18th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 8th

Key Offensive Stat: Turnover % (12th)

Key Defensive Stat: Turnover % (8th)

Player to Know: Demarre Carroll - F

As the Key Stats section says, Missouri's game is all about the turnover. There's no wonder that The Boy over at Rock M Nation is so infatuated with his Ball Control Index: it is the key stat in every Missouri game. They turn you over, and rarely commit the same mistakes on their own end. It's what makes their 40 minutes of controlled chaos so freakin' hard to beat. When Mike Anderson gets "his players", code for oodles of athletes, he is one of the better coaches in the country. It all starts with Demarre Carroll, though, whose incredible athleticism allow his 6'8" frame to be at the top of their 2-2-1 press. He just may be the best player most of the country couldn't pick out of a police lineup, and that should change in March. He's my early, odds-on favorite to become the name people can't stop talking about. Not in the Stephen Curry kind of way, but in the Chris Douglas-Roberts sort of way.

#4 Seed - Washington Huskies

Bid: At-Large - Pac 10

Location (Enrollment): Seattle, Washington (30,790)

Record: 25-8 (14-4)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin:16/14/14

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 35th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 11th

Key Offensive Stat: Off. Rebounding % (3rd)

Key Defensive Stat: Tempo (6th)

Player to Know: Isaiah Thomas - G

Washington's odd, statistically. Their defense is incredible, as a whole, but none of the Four Factors are above 77th. They aren't really good at anything, they just aren't bad at anything, either. So, I put the always-significant tempo up there. It may not seem accurate, if you've seen anything of the Huskies this year, but they do push it up-and-down. That has a lot to do with quite possibly the best freshman in the country, 5'8" point guard Isaiah Thomas. He can squeak into the lane at will, and that's pretty much Washington's entire offense. Work your way into the lane, and either get off a decent shot, dish it down low to the West Coast's Tyler Hansbrough, in Jon Brockman (without all of the fluff and twice the toughness, of course) or get fouled. They usually end up at the free throw line.

#5 Seed - Purdue Boilermakers

Bid: Automatic Bid - Big 10/11

Location (Enrollment): West Lafayette, Indiana (39, 228)

Record: 26-9 (11-7)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 20/14/16

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 48th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 5th

Key Offensive Stat: Turnover % (23rd)

Key Defensive Stat: eFG% (9th)

Player to Know: Robbie Hummel - F

Geez. Catch a drift, in this bracket? The West Region is absolutely loaded up with strong defensive teams, and the Boilers are no different. No longer the Baby Boilers, Purdue is scary. Very scary. They had plenty of rough patches, but most of that had to do with injuries, most notably Robbie Hummel missing a trio of games due to a head injury. However, they're all healthy now, and ready to rock. Pro prospects abound, with E'Twaun Moore the best perimeter player, JaJuan Johnson the best interior and Robbie Hummel the all-everything outside-and-inside. But, they also have one of the best on-ball defenders in college basketball in Chris Kramer, who shouldn't be overlooked. In short, Purdue is a team that I have poised to make a deep, deep run in the Tournament. They're good, folks.

#6 Seed - Marquette Golden Eagles

Bid: At-Large - Big East

Location (Enrollment): Milwaukee, Wisconsin (7,955)

Record: 25-9 (12-6)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin:35/20/22

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 9th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 56th

Key Offensive Stat: Turnover % (10th)

Key Defensive Stat: eFG% (253rd)

Player to Know: Jerel McNeal - G

When the Golden Eagles had the trio of awesomeness out on the perimeter (McNeal, Wesley Matthews and Dominc James), it was one thing. You could overlook their mostly shoddy defense, or lack of a true interior scoring threat, because that trio was so good. The best perimeter combination in the country, I think. But the second that James went down for the year with his broken foot, Marquette's chances in the NCAA Tournament went with it. They still have the talent to win the first game, but they just don't have nearly the depth to hang with Missouri, for example, in the second round. McNeal and Matthews are both still special, and Lazar Hayward is a wondrous third option, but that's all. And, as mentioned before, it's a piece of cake to score on them close to the basket. Feed it in to the big men, folks, and the Golden Eagles will be on their way home real quick.

#7 Seed - California Golden Bears

Bid: At-Large - Pac 10

Location (Enrollment): Berkeley, California (24,636)

Record: 22-10 (11-7)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 39/29/29

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 11th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 86th

Key Offensive Stat: 3-Point FG% (1st)

Key Defensive Stat: Turnover % (287th)

Player to Know: Jerome Randle - G

Cal, like Marquette, is another offense-first team, leaving defense for later. More specifically, they prefer the long ball, and are the best three-point shooting team in the country. By. Far. They don't shoot it non-stop, which is why their percentage can be so high (an ungodly 44%). But, when they do, odds are it's going in. Particularly if it is coming from their point guard, Jerome Randle, who is shooting 47%, or Theo Robertson, who is shooting an incredible 50%. So, cover the three-point line. But, don't hold your breath, because they can sneak into the lane at will, too. Oh, oh, and Patrick Christopher is super-duper cool, too. On defense, though, have at it.

#8 Seed - Brigham Young Cougars

Bid: At-Large - Mountain West

Location (Enrollment): Provo, Utah (34,067)

Record: 26-7 (12-4)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin:29/18/18

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 22nd

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 23rd

Key Offensive Stat: eFG% (7th)

Key Defensive Stat: Off. Rebounding & (3rd)

Player to Know: Lee Cummard - F

Balance, balance, balance. That's the Brigham Young way. Really good offense, really good defense, not a single offensive go-to-guy. Just a whole helluva lot of really good players. Cummard is the best, though, and is a virtual guarantee within 10 feet of the basket who can also slide out to three-point range. They are very, very good at not turning the ball over and getting really good looks at the basket. Making most of them. They rarely get more than one chance, though, so if they have a poor shooting day they're toast. Of course, they allow practically zero second-chance points themselves, so that's fine.

#9 Seed - Texas A&M Aggies

Bid: At-Large - Big 12

Location (Enrollment): College Station, Texas (38,430)

Record: 23-9 (9-7)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 36/52/55

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 36th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 78th

Key Offensive Stat: FTA/FGA (4th)

Key Defensive Stat: Turnover % (296th)

Player to Know: Josh Carter - G

They are really good at getting to the free throw line, and terrible at turning you over. At everything else, they are pretty much pretty-good-to-average. They beat BYU last season, but this year, it is a statistical mismatch. They just aren't that good of a basketball team. They have some decent balance, just like the Cougars, but both offense and defense are worse. They have interior depth, and they have plenty of good perimeter players, just aren't good enough as a team. They got hot at the end of the season, though, and have the potential to make plenty of noise.

#10 Seed - Maryland Terrapins

Bid: At-Large - ACC

Location (Enrollment): College Park, Maryland (37,000)

Record: 20-14 (7-9)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 54/54/53

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 73rd

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 47th

Key Offensive Stat: FTA/FGA (334th)

Key Defensive Stat: Off. Rebounding % (307th)

Player to Know: Greivis Vasquez - G

They don't deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament. They just don't. Look at those rankings above. 54/54/53? Not an at-large berth, to me. But, whatever. They're in. And they are capable of making some noise. Greivis Vasquez is an incredible player, and he alone could sneak them past Cal. Beyond him, though, yikes. It's basically just a host of role players combined with a star. Yeah, not exactly an NCAA team to me. But, whatever. They never get to the free throw line, because no one is explosive enough to head towards the bucket, save Vasquez. Other than that, it's a couple of three-point shooters (Eric Hayes, Dave Neal) and Landon Milbourne, who is actually pretty good. So, he really isn't a role player. But that's it. Enjoy the trip to Kansas City, Terp fans.

#11 Seed - Utah State Aggies

Bid: Automatic Bid - WAC

Location (Enrollment): Logan, Utah (13,179)

Record: 30-4 (14-2)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 24/56/50

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 13th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency:169th

Key Offensive Stat: eFG% (4th)

Key Defensive Stat: Turnover % (325th)

Player to Know: Gary Wilkinson - F/C

You wanna play D, there, Utah State? No? Well, complain all you want about how you would have gotten left out with 29 wins, but just blame your D. Yikes. They can score with the best of them, though, making their Round One matchup with Marquette a came that should be absolutely fascinating. Seriously. Offense abound! Gary Wilkinson is a really fundamentally sound big guy who should destroy Milwaukee's rather weak frontline. Of course, Wilkinson is 26, so whatever. Oh, and watch out for Jared Quayle from three. He can hit it from out there. Anyone else scoring, you can live with. Just shut down Wilkinson and Quayle.

#12 Seed - Northern Iowa Panthers

Bid: Automatic Bid - Missouri Valley

Location (Enrollment): Cedar Falls, Iowa (12,067)

Record: 23-10 (14-4)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 56/82/85

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 57th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 127th

Key Offensive Stat: FT% (14th)

Key Defensive Stat: Off. Rebounding % (8th)

Player to Know: Adam Koch - F

Northern Iowa is a good team. They really, really limit your second-chance points, and can hit free throws with the best of them. They get to the free throw line a lot, too, so that's good. And they make a lot of shots, and don't really turn the ball over that much, and they are incredibly experienced. But they just aren't on too many team's level. To me, they're a team that is going to get rocked. But hey, like I said, they have plenty of things going for them. And if Purdue can't keep them off the free throw line, they could just upset them using free throws. Lamest. Upset. Ever.

#13 Seed - Mississippi State Bulldogs

Bid: Automatic Bid - SEC

Location (Enrollment): Starkville, Mississippi (17,824)

Record: 23-12 (9-7)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 60/60/66

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 74th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 59th

Key Offensive Stat: 3-Point FG% (84th)

Key Defensive Stat: Block% (4th)

Player to Know: Jarvis Varnado - C

Mississippi State, as a whole, isn't all that good. They have potential, and have NIT written all over them, and lost way too many bad games in the non-conference to be seriously considered for the NCAA Tournament. But Jarvis Varnado is, easily, the best center no one pays attention to. Having watched both of them play, I don't see a huge difference between Varnado and Thabeet. Of course, Thabeet is 7'3", and Varnado is only 6'9", and I'm sure that makes up a large amount of the difference. But still. Varnado is awesome. Watch him in the NCAA Tournament. Watch him. Everyone else, not named Varnado, is pretty much a three-point shooter, headlined by Dee Bost and Ravern Johnson and Barry Stewart. They bring back everyone next year, so keep that in mind. This year, though, Varnado is going to have to Superman their way past Washington.

#14 Seed - Cornell Big Red

Bid: Automatic Bid - Ivy

Location (Enrollment): Ithaca, New York (19,800)

Record: 21-9 (11-3)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 115/100/104

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 81st

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 146th

Key Offensive Stat: 3-Point FG% (6th)

Key Defensive Stat: 3-Point FG% (26th)

Player to Know: Ryan Wittman - G/F

Yes, Ryan Wittman is Randy Wittman's son. And yes, Ryan Wittman is a BCS-level athlete. Dude can hit the three with the best of them, representative of the rest of their team. They shoot threes. And they make it just about all of the time. Wittman is shooting 42%, Geoff Reeves is shooting 42% and Chris Wroblewski is shooting 45%. No matter how many solid defenders you have, one of those guys is going to be open and ready to cock-and-fire. And, don't forget about Louis Dale, their best player. He was hurt for the beginning of the year, but is now healthy and back in action. Watch out. No matter what mpfische says, I think the Big Red are dangerous. They scare me. I'm glad we ain't playing them.

#15 Seed - Cal State Northridge Matadors

Bid: Automatic Bid - Big West

Location (Enrollment): Los Angeles, California (26,854)

Record: 17-13 (11-5)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin:127/104/105

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 179th

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 61st

Key Offensive Stat: Turnover % (324th)

Key Defensive Stat: Turnover % (24th)

Player to Know: Josh Jenkins - G

The first team in this bracket I really know nothing about. I did watch their Big West Championship, and they are deep more than anything. They have a bunch of players, all of which can break out and be stars for a day. And, finally, we've got a defensive-first team beyond the top 5 seeds. Combined with Memphis' sketchy offense, and this game figures to be hella low-scoring. Although, I highly doubt that Northridge can even get over 50 points. Honestly. They'll have to be draining from long range, or no way.

#16 Seed - Chattanooga Mocs

Bid: Automatic Bid - Southern

Location (Enrollment): Chattanooga, Tennessee (9,002)

Record: 18-16 (11-9)

RPI/KenPom/Sagarin: 174/213/223

KenPom Adj. Offensive Efficiency: 132nd

KenPom Adj. Defensive Efficiency: 288th

Key Offensive Stat: FTA/FGA (5th)

Key Defensive Stat: eFG% (307th)

Player to Know: Stephen McDowell -- G

Enjoy the moment, Terrell Owens. Your alma mater's stay in the NCAA Tournament will be, without a doubt, the shortest stay of all. Honestly, I'm absolutely shocked they aren't in the play-in game. But, alas, they aren't. So, enjoy knowing the opponent who will beat you down for awhile. They don't really know what defense is, and while their offense has some solid players, it ain't pretty. McDowell, actually, is awesome. Really good player who can both drive consistently and hit the three. Impressive. And Nicchaeus Doaks draws fouls with the best of 'em. But, that's it. And, like I said, don't get me started on the defense.

The Matchups, Etc. -- Upcoming

This will just provide a cursory preview of each of the first round games. Time-dependent, I may preview every round before it happens. That's the goal, but who knows just how much time I'll have.

#1 Connecticut Huskies vs. #16 Chattanooga Mocs

What To Watch: Second-Chance Points -- UConn's defense is far too incredible for the Mocs to do much of anything straight up. So, for them to stand a chance, they are going to need to get 2, 3, 4 opportunities every time down. UConn's defensive rebounding capabilities, despite the immense height they posses, is a relative weakness compared to other parts, so it isn't impossible. And, on the flip side, if Hasheem Thabeet gets much of anything second-chance-related, game over.

Chattanooga Will Win If: They can't miss -- That's about what it's going to take. They aren't particularly impressive at anything, and probably deserved the Play-In game. They are going to all have career days, particularly from three, or they'll get run out of the gym.

Connecticut Will Win If: They show up. -- All UConn has to do is show up to the game, give a C+ effort for the first half and start looking ahead to the winner of BYU and Texas A&M on Saturday.

Player to Watch: Hasheem Thabeet (C, UConn) -- The tallest player that sees action for the Mocs is 6'8" Khalil Hartwell. However, they do have a 7'1" player, Jeremy Saffore, and he should see some time if only to match Thabeet's height. But, even when Jeremy Saffore is out on the floor, dude isn't quite at the same level as Thabeet. Thabeet should be able to draw fouls by the dozens and pick up countless dunks. If UConn told the Moc defenders they were planning on checking it down low to Hasheem, they still might score enough to win.

KenPom's Prediction: Uconn 87 Chattanooga 52 (98% probability UConn wins)

#8 Brigham Young Cougars vs. #9 Texas A&M Aggies

What to Watch: Texas A&M's Offensive Rebounds -- The Aggies aren't incredible at the offensive glass, but they need at least some production there to be successful. They don't have enough explosiveness out on the perimeter to be capable of living without it. However, BYU protects the defensive glass as well as anyone in the country. If A&M can't get anything going, they are going to have to be on fire from their other favorite place to score: the free throw line. And, get the necessary calls to get the trips. Otherwise, they'll be held under 60.

Texas A&M Will Win If: The refs call a close game -- ATM's offense is disproportionally dependent on the freebies. If the refs are blowing whistles like it's going out of style, and Texas A&M's better free throw shooters are receiving repeated trips to the line (Josh Carter, B.J. Holmes and Donald Sloan), then the Aggies have a pretty decent shot. If the refs are letting them play, and the Ags are actually required to finish at the bucket, watch out.

BYU Will Win If: They don't turn it over -- They are just about as efficient as they get on offense. They find open shots, they take open shots, they make open shots. Simple as that. And, they rarely, if ever, turn the ball over. But if you take that element out of the equation, it's an entirely different ball game. They are just about required to hit those open looks, because they don't have the excess turnover-free possessions in reserve to back them up. So, take control of the ball, against an absolutely brutal A&M defense at forcing you to turn it over, and you should be fine.

Player to Watch: Josh Carter (G/F, Texas A&M) -- If the Ags are going to pull off the miniest of upsets, Carter is going to have to show up in a huge way. Not only must he be 'on' from long range, providing them some semblance of an offense from way out there, he must also play really good D on Jonathan Tavernari, a 6'6" sharpshooter for the Cougs. Carter needs to win his battle, by a lot most likely, against Tavernari for Turgeon's squad to advance.

KenPom Prediction: BYU 75 Texas A&M 69 (71% probability BYU wins)

#5 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #12 Northern Iowa Panthers

What to Watch: Chris Kramer's Defense -- UNI has two really awesome perimeter players. Chris Kramer, the Big 10's Defensive Player of the Year, can only guard one of them. Whoever is left over, whether it be (wait for these names) Kwadzo Ahelegbe or Ali Farokhmanesh, absolutely must take advantage. If Kramer can effectively shut down one of them, as I expect, the other one needs to be on fire. He, most likely Farokmanesh, must be hitting from three, driving and dishing, leading his team. Because when Kramer sticks on you, watch the hell out.

Northern Iowa Will Win If: It can slow it down -- Northern Iowa, in typical Big 10/11 fashion, loves to slow you down. They are one of the slowest teams in the country, and move beyond their general lack of talent and athleticism by simply limiting the number of possessions in a game, then capitalizing with sound judgement on these limited possessions. And yes, I understand that Purdue is in the Big 10, and that means they had to sign a contract promising never to run a fast break. Still, they are one of the faster teams in the Big 10, and would probably prefer to get out and run and display their athleticism. So, if the Panthers can slow it down, it might actually hurt the Big 10 team. You don't hear that everyday.

Purdue Will Win If: Shut Down the Interior -- Also like your typical Big 10 team, Northern Iowa works inside-out. They like pounding it into their 7'1" center, Jordan Eglseder (more on him in a second), and having him work the ball out. Or, they like giving it to Adam Koch even more, and letting him either drive or dish it out or shoot. In some ways, Koch is like Robbie Hummel, except he can't shoot threes. But we're getting off track. The key is, Northern Iowa shoots quite a few threes, but they aren't all that good at them. Particularly if their name isn't Farokhmanesh. So, make them beat you from long distance. If it happens, whatever. They still might play well enough offensively to win.

Player to Watch: Jorden Eglseder (Northern Iowa, C) -- I watched the Missouri Valley Championship game, one of the best games I've seen all year. And, the color commentator, Bob Wenzel I believe, continued to mention the difference between Eglseder, the Panthers' 7'1" starting center, and Lucas O'Rear, their 6'6" backup center. Eglseder has bad knees, and can really only go about 20 minutes a pop. But, when he's in there, he is a legitimate offensive threat. He can score. He can pass out to open shooters. He can draw contact. O'Rear, on the other hand, is a prototypical mid-major guy; high on heart and hustle and intelligence, but low on height and physical ability. So, if Northern Iowa is to stand a chance, it will need Eglseder to dominate the smaller Purdue bigs. If not, and even if most likely, Purdue's athleticism will simply take over.

KenPom Prediction: Purdue 67 Northern Iowa 59 (83% possibility Purdue wins)

#4 Washington Huskies vs. #13 Mississippi State Bulldogs

What to Watch: Jarvis Varnado's Foul Trouble -- Mississippi State, lead obviously by Varnardo, is one of the best teams in the country at blocking your shot. Washington, undoubtedly because they get fouled whenever close to the basket, are one of the best teams in the country at not getting their shots rejected. Something is going to have to give, folks. If Varnardo gets in foul trouble, though, the Staters are toast.

Mississippi State Will Win If: The Threes are Falling -- Mississippi State has a fantastic center in the middle, the second-best shot-blocker in the country after Thabeet, in Jarvis Varnado. Beyond that, it's live-and-die by the three, homes. So, if they are living it up from out there, then sure, they've got a chance. Otherwise, it was a fun trip. Build on it for next year.

Washington Will Win If: Washington's Gets to the Free Throw Line -- Much of Washington's offense resolves around cutting towards the basket, throwing up shots or kicking it down low to the always-waiting Jon Brockman, and getting hacked. Now, if you can make the shot too, fabulous. But, if not, no bigs. Just hit your free throws. However, the Bulldogs are one of the better teams in the country at playing defense without fouling. So, if Mississippi State can effectively stay away from U-Dub and avoid ref's whistles, Washington's offense isn't nearly as good. And, it allows the Bulldogs' sub-standard offense a shot.

Player to Watch: Jon Brockman (Washington, F) -- Beyond Varnardo, the player who can have the most impact is Brockman. And that's on the offensive glass. Despite Varnardo, Missisippi State is actually quite poor at limiting second-chance opportunities (I'd surmise it's because Varnardo is always trying to block shots, and no one else can consistently grab rebounds), and Brockman is one of the best in the country. Have at it, big guy.

KenPom Prediction: Washington 80 Mississippi State 72 (76% probability Washington wins)

#6 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. #11 Utah State Aggies

What to Watch: Utah State's 3-point Shooting -- Utah State can drain the three. Very. Consistently. Marquette doesn't play much D at all, even out on the perimeter where there are athletes galore. Unless the Ags are uncharacteristically cold from three, they should be able to score bundles from out there. Of course, 'Quette isn't much better inside, either (actually, their worse), so they might decide to pound it in to Gary Wilkinson, the 6'9" 26-year old, instead. That should work, as well.

Utah State Will Win If: They Slow it Down -- Marquette isn't all that efficient on O. They are incredible, and the duo of Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews is fantastic, but unless both are spot-on, the Golden Eagles use up a lot of possessions. If the Aggies can limit the possessions, even though the Eags aren't as run-and-gun as you might think, that make every contested 16-footer Jerel McNeal hoists up a tad bit more painful. And since everyone on Utah State already is 25 and is married (kidding, of course...only half), they should be more mature.

Marquette Will Win If: They Are Under Control -- I joke around about Utah State's age, but Marquette is the veteran one here. They are the 7th oldest team in the country, and just about every key contributor has been here before. They know what to do, they know the routine, etc. That is often incredibly overrated by most, but it is important. As long as they can limit the stupid plays, and can run their offense and commit to defense, if only for spurts, they should have enough talent to run away. No matter how well Utah State shoots it, or whatever, it will take some stupid Marquette plays, as well, or they should still have enough in the cannon to pull away with a victory. Key word: should.

Player to Watch: Lazar Hayward (Marquette, F) -- Everyone always talks about the perimeter players on 'Quette, and for good reason. It's one of the best units in all of college basketball. But Hayward is frequently overlooked, and he shouldn't be. If he can hold is own with Gary Wilkinson, then Marquette's immense perimeter advantage should take hold. However, if he can't stay out of foul trouble or provides nothing offensively or lets Wilkinson tear him to pieces, then Utah State, in my mind, becomes the favorite. As it always seems to work out, the game is really on Lazar's shoulders, no the attention-grabbig perimeter players.

KenPom Prediction: Marquette 75 Utah State 69 (72% probability Marquette wins)

#3 Missouri Tigers vs. #14 Cornell Big Red

What to Watch: Turnovers -- Cornell isn't good at not turning the ball over, and isn't good at turning you over. Missouri is the exact opposite, with their entire Top 10 machine built around winning the turnover battle. Now, obviously, the Tigers are going to come out on top. But if it's just a narrow difference, or if the Big Red can at least keep their number low, they've got a shot. If it's as astronomical a gap as the statistics say it should be, good night Irene.

Cornell Will Win If: Three-Point Parade -- Cornell shoots a lot of threes. That's good. In my mind, you have to do at least one thing amazingly well, as a 14-16 seed, to beat an upper tier team. It isn't a requirement, but if you were to look back in the archives at the biggest upsets in NCAA Tournament history, nearly all of them would involve a team that was particularly great at something. And, in that one 2-hour moment of everlasting glory, they were able to capitalize and capitalize and capitalize on that strength to beat the higher-ranked team. Yeah, that's pretty much what has to happen here with the long ball. Big Red, I salute you.

Missouri Will Win If: They Force Turnovers -- Not to beat a dead horse, but it's all that matters. If Cornell can keep it manageable, and get hot from three, this game should be close late. If either of those things doesn't happen, game over. And, since Missouri has a lot more control over forcing turnovers, I chose that one.

Player to Watch: Ryan Wittman (Cornell, G) -- When I was talking about hitting threes, this was the main guy I was talking about. Dude is their best shooter from three, by far, and is the kind of star that March has made into heroes. I know, I know, mpfische, they're like 1-5 against the RPI Top 150. All I'm saying is that it could happen.

KenPom Prediction: Missouri 81 Cornell 67 (90% probability Missouri wins)

#7 California Golden Bears vs. #10 Maryland Terrapins

What to Watch: Rebounding -- Neither team has a real masher down low, preferring to hang out with 4-5 players surrounding the perimeter. However, Cal is clearly ahead in that regard with Jamal Boykin and Jordan Wilkes down low, and they should dominate the rebounds. If they don't, though, this game is entirely different.

Maryland Will Win If: They Force Turnovers -- It ain't easy against the Golden Bears, but the Terps absolutely must win the turnover battle. They're just entirely too mediocre-to-awful at shooting the ball to survive any shortage of possessions. An absolute must. With the Bears' likely advantage in rebounding, and an obvious shot-making advantage, the Terrapins can't afford to give away any possessions at all. And, while they need to force turnovers to make up ground, they certainly can't afford to lose ground by turning it over. Take control of the ball, and you've got a chance.

California Will Win If: They Get Open Threes -- Cal is pure cash money from three, yo, when they take them. Of course, it's so high because they don't shoot it all that often. Maryland needs to come out and guard the Bears, or yowza. Open looks plus awesome shooters equal game over.

Player to Watch: Greivis Vasquez (Maryland, G) -- Dude is the Terrapin's only really good player. If they win, he has to explode. If he doesn't explode, the Terps lose. You get it?

KenPom Prediction: California 74 Maryland 71 (62% probability California wins)

#2 Memphis Tigers vs. #15 CS-Northridge Matadors

What to Watch: Memphis' Pulse -- If they show up, game is over. If they don't, and want to waltz on through without trying hard, it might be a game. Of course, only until they do show up.

CS-Northridge Will Win If: See Above -- Again, if Memphis just doesn't decide to show up. That's their only hope. Is that too harsh?

Memphis Will Win If: See Above (x2) -- Again, again. I hope you all get it, by now.

Player to Watch: Tyreke Evans (Memphis, G) -- Just to see the dude play. He's incredible.

KenPom Prediction: Memphis 76 CS-Northridge 58 (96% probability Memphis wins)

RCT Predictions

Now, no RCT secrets will be unveiled, here. I do want to win the still-to-be-decided prize in the RCT Bracket Pool. But, here are just some things to think about when filling out your bracket.

Most LIkely to Pull an Upset: Utah State (11-seed)

Final Four Sleeper: Purdue (5-seed)

Final Four Favorite: Memphis (2-seed)

Best Team No One Knows About: Cornell (14-seed)

Most Underseeded Team: California (7-seed)

Most Overseeded Team: Maryland (10-seed)

That's all I'll do, for now. If I can think of any others, I'll make sure and tack them on for my next preview.

And, just to give you a brief of our schedule. Denver will break down the East and the South sometime tomorrow and Wednesday, and I'll come in with the Midwest preview Wednesday afternoon-to-night. Also, of course, there will be assorted North Dakota State-related preview things.

Come back!

Big East Tournament live blog: 5) Marquette vs. 13) St. John's

Mike Rutherford — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 18:22:06 -0000

The ESPN studio just flashed the St. Louis/La Salle score as 52-52 at the end of the second half and Digger Phelps asked whether or not it was a final.

It's March baby.

Depaul did its part and made today's opener more entertaining than most of us expected it to be. Here's hoping the Johnnies can do the same thing.

2:33 - No Big East Tourney jingle this year, just a highlight montage and a guy talking about the past and survival. I give it a meh.

2:44 - Marquette up 7-1. This is pretty gross.

2:46 - You guys are not drawing me in at all. I'm very "aware" that I'm watching two struggling teams playing in the second round of the Big East Tournament.

2:49 - Lou Carnesecca and John Wooden should have been twins.

2:50 - Quick question: where the hell are the Guiness St. Patrick's Day commercials this year? It's getting a little late in the game.

2:56 - It's 11-4 Marquette at the under 12.

I'm not even going to try and pretend like I'ven been focusing.

3:01 - Jerel McNeal still believes Jerel McNeal has never committed a foul. He's been whistled for two but Buzz is leaving him on the floor. Golden Eagles by seven, 13-6.

3:03 - According to Len Elmore, St. John's just "made out a little bit." I don't know how I missed that.

3:04 - Every time I hear the name "Jimmy Butler" I think of Jimmy from Seinfeld. Jimmy's got moves, Jimmy can dunk, JIMMY'S DOWN.

3:05 - David "Please Pronounce My First Name Daveed" Cubillan proves that he's still on the team by hitting a wild shot to make it 17-8.

3:08 - Someone wearing red please make a shot. Matthews buries a deep three and it's 22-8.

I'm not having fun.

3:13 - ESPN just showed a clip of Dom James trying to stay composed during a press conference this week. Pretty hard to watch.

3:17 - I'm eating my own hand.

3:19 - Seventeen minutes played, two St. John's shots made.

3:21 - Marquette is on a 14-0 run that I'm pretty sure has spanned two hours and forty-five minutes. Golden Eagles173, St. John's 8 as we mercifully near the end of the first half.

3:24 - According to the story on the C-J's home page, Efejuku Weyinmi scored 23 points for Providence this afternoon. I think they may have gotten the backwards names.

3:30 - History! St. John's sets the Big East Tournament record for least points in a half, shattering the previous mark of 14.

It's Marquette, 38-10 after 20 minutes.

3:50 - Golden Eagles, 40-14. If the dog hadn't barked I would have been out for a while.

4:00 - In case you were wondering, it's 47-18, Marquette.

I can't do this much longer.

4:04 - Jim Burr sucks at his job.

4:14 - Marquette's up 31 if anyone cares...I don't.

4:50 - Marquette wins 74-45. True story: I fell asleep.

Here's hoping the evening session provides a step up in entertainment.

Big East hoops blog talk

Mike Rutherford — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 10:00:11 -0000

On the eve of the greatest conference tournament in college basketball, myself, Sean from Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician and Chris from Rakes of Mallow figured this was the perfect time for some inter-bloggal Big East hoops talk.

The topics in question are who should be the Big East Player of the Year (announced today) and who is the favorite to leave MSG with the crown. Chris got the ball rolling last night.

First things first, doing away with the ten-player all-conference teams should have taken place two years ago, but it was nice to see the change finally happen. I don't care if the league expands to 25 teams, placing ten people on an all-league team completely diminishes the honor.

That said, let's move onto the POY discussion.

I think Jerel McNeal is deserving of his first team status, but that he's also played himself out of contention for Player of the Year honors since Dominic James went down and the Golden Eagles dropped four straight. So that leaves...

Hasheem Thabeet - The most valuable player in the conference

DeJuan Blair - The most consistent player in the conference who got the better of Thabeet and his team in both head-to-head meetings

Terrence Williams - The best player on the conference's regular season champion

Luke Harangody - The player with the conference's most impressive numbers

And

Sam Young - The guy who I think is the best overall player in the league

A legit and indisputable case can be made for each of the five players, but I'm going with Williams (shocker) because I think he's the best combination of impressive stat line and value to his team, an equation which equals "most outstanding" (take a college geometry course and get back to me). No other player in the league does as many things as well as he does, and Louisville is a middle of-the-road team in this conference without him on their roster.

As far as tournament champion, it's really hard to peg anyone but Pitt as the pre-tip favorite. Polk was president the last time they didn't make it to the championship game, they're the only team in the league that appears completely fearless of UConn, and they've knocked Louisville out of this thing every year since the Cardinals made the jump from Conference ~~UM State~~ USA.

I'm taking the Panthers, but if you're giving me a second choice then I'm going with Villanova. I think if they can get by a Marquette team looking to prove that it can make a run in the dance without James then they have the potential to get really hot and shoot their next two opponents out of the gym.

Feel free to discuss either of these topics or why you think Depaul rolls through the next five days.