SB Nation - Fred Brown

Kansas State: Know Your Rival

Bill C. — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Game 1 of the Keep Kansas From Winning the Conference Tour tips off tonight in Mizzou Arena, where Mizzou will play in its second revenge game of the year. The first one resulted in a 28-point road-to-home swing. Tonight's will need to result in at least a 17-point swing for Mizzou to move to Game 2 in Lawrence on Sunday.

vs Big 12
Kansas State: 7-5

	KSU	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.69	1.73
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.03	1.05
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.15	1.37
2-PT FG%	45.3%	46.4%
3-PT FG%	36.2%	40.7%
FT%	66.5%	70.7%
True Shooting %	50.4%	56.3%

	KSU	Opp
Assists	147	163
Steals	75	69
Turnovers	170	181
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.31	1.28

	KSU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	163	136
Offensive Rebounds	179	122
Difference	+16	-14

Here's why stats are so interesting and entertaining--this line right here tells you everything you need to know about Kansas State. They are a poor, poor shooting team that is occasionally careless with the ball, but they play solid pressure defense (BCI!) and crash the boards hard.
These Big 12 numbers should put into perspective just how far over their heads KSU played last time these teams met. Needless to say, KSU's Big 12 numbers are at least slightly dampened by a poor start to conference play, but regardless--62.5% true shooting %, 54.5% from 3-point range? Rare. If Mizzou holds KSU to its conference-play shooting averages, they should be in control of this game. If.
Mizzou will also have to shoot pretty well themselves, as they probably won't win the rebounding battle. Frank Martin has a team whose offensive talent is focused mostly on just 2-3 players, but the whole team rebounds well, especially the bench guys.

Stats by StatSheet.com

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Denis Clemente (Jr)	15.05	0.46	17.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.3 APG
Jacob Pullen (So)	9.78	0.30	12.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.6 APG
Darren Kent (Sr)	9.03	0.36	9.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jamar Samuels (Fr)	8.75	0.43	7.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG
Fred Brown (So)	6.08	0.27	7.2 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.5 APG
Dominique Sutton (So)	5.73	0.26	5.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.0 APG
Luis Colon (Jr)	4.37	0.20	4.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG
Ron Anderson (So)	4.33	0.21	2.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG
Buchi Awaji (Jr)	3.47	0.45	2.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG
Chris Merriewether (Jr)	1.59	0.21	1.0 PPG, 2.1 RPG
Victor Ojeleye (Fr)	-0.35	-0.53	2 minutes
Justin Werner (Fr)	-0.53	-0.21	5 minutes

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Denis Clemente is the patented "crazy guy in a fight." You don't really know what he's going to do, but you're not too enthusiastic about finding out. He might drop 40 on you, he might decide somebody's cheap-shotting him when they're not, he might be a game-changer, he might be a non-factor. No matter what, this will probably be a "Hey JT Tiller, I want to know what kind of chewing gum Mr. Clemente is chewing," situation.
Meanwhile, if you were to ask me where Jacob Pullen was from (and I didn't already know the answer), by looking at his stat line, I'd answer "Chicago" with no hesitation. He's got that Chicago game--lots of shots, low shooting %, decent assist numbers, lots of turnovers, lots of steals, big juevos--that we've seen in quite a few guys over the years (most recently Stefhon Hannah and Patrick Beverley). He'll shoot KSU into a game, and then shoot them out of it. He's not lacking in confidence, though, and KSU's identity is somewhat a reflection of his.
Jamar Samuels is an interesting freshman. He doesn't take a lot of shots (0.26 per minute), but he's efficient with the ball, and he'll be the best offensive rebounder on the court tonight. He averages 0.12 OR's per minute--for comparison, Mizzou's best in that category (Keith Ramsey) only averages 0.09.
KSU's front line--Kent and Colon--are rather offensively challenged (big men usually average in the 1.30-1.50 points per shot range--Kent averages 1.17, Colon 0.98), but they're very good at rebounding and muscling guys around. Though DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons both ended up with decent stats last time around, while the game was actually close Kent and Colon were neutralizing the two well enough for KSU's guards to get away with overplaying the ball against Zaire Taylor and J.T. Tiller, who combined for 8 turnovers.

Keys to the Game

Turnovers. Mizzou is a BCI team--it is very rare that they have more turnovers than their opponent, but led by the 8 from Tiller and Taylor, that's exactly what they encountered in Bramlage almost exactly a month ago. (The Tigers haven't lost for almost a month?? Damn!) KSU had a wonderful gameplan of getting into Mizzou's comfort zone before Mizzou could do the same. It worked in Manhattan, but it's much less likely to work a second time now that Mizzou knows it's coming.

It's Tiller/Taylor vs Clemente/Pullen, and whoever controls the ball better, wins.
The first 15 minutes. Average halftime score of a Mizzou loss: Opponents 38, Mizzou 26. Average halftime score of a Mizzou win: Mizzou 40, Opponents 29. Average score at the 15-minute mark of the last three Mizzou losses: Opponents 27, Mizzou 16. If you're going to strike Mizzou, strike early.
The 3-pointer. That's right, two of the three keys are the same as those from the Colorado game.

Mizzou's perimeter defense has been outstanding in conference play--opponents have only hit 66 of 215 3-pointers against them (30.7%). Without the first KSU game, that number falls to 28.0%. K-State hit 12 of 22 3-pointers at Bramlage (Jacob Pullen and Fred Brown: 10-for-14). They hit 9-of-12 during a stretch late in the first half and early in the second half, when the game was salted away.

There's no question that KSU has improved since the beginning of conference season, but the unmissable 3's were the main reason I called the trip to Bramlage "just one of those games." And that's fine if it was just one of those games...as long as it doesn't happen again. KSU makes 30% (or less) of their 3-pointers, Mizzou probably wins.

Prediction

I've got two conflicting feelings going on about this game. First, the game in Manhattan was more out of character for KSU than Mizzou. They're not a wonderful shooting team, but they couldn't miss that night, and Mizzou had an uncharacteristic number of turnovers. If both teams play an average game, Mizzou wins.

However, there's no question that K-State is a team that simply matches up very well with Mizzou. Some teams do, some don't...KSU does. They have confident, aggressive (and sometimes crazy) guards and a couple of strong bigs who can push DeMarre and Leo around a bit. While I think Mizzou will win this game--the revenge factor is strong, Mizzou plays extremely well at home, etc.--due to matchups things will probably be pretty tight (unless Pullen and Clemente hit an extremely cold stretch).

K-State hasn't played wonderfully since beating MU and Texas, back-to-back, in late-January to salvage their season. Pretty or not, though, they've continued to win. Overall, they've won 7 of 8 conference games and continue to fight for their NCAA Tourney lives. You never want to fight a desperate and crazy guy, and that's how KSU is looking right now. That said, Mizzou's depth and home court advantage are too much. Mizzou finally starts to pull away around the 6:00 or 8:00 mark of the second half and wins it, 79-71.

Poll

Biggest key for tonight?

Turnovers

27 votes

The first 15 minutes

23 votes

The 3-pointer

10 votes

Good Leo making an appearance

24 votes

Containing Denis Clemente

12 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State (Again)

rockchalk — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 02:14:44 -0000

Here we go, the second go-around of a Kansas State preview. I won't go over the same sort of stuff, because we went over just about all of it here, the first K-State KenPom preview.

Opening Thoughts

Is it just me, or are you all rivalled-out, too? It's like we exuded all of our effort trying to take on our cousin, only to have our little brother come on and attack us while we're down. Except, unlike not all-that-long ago, little brother can fight, too. Sure, these Powercats aren't as good or dangerous as last year's team, with Michael Beasley and Billy Walker, but they are still scary. They've won six in a row, and are incredibly hard to slow down. Once they get running, they are dangerous enough to beat a lot of teams. A lot of teams. So, yeah, this isn't going to be too much fun, methinks. We're still recovering from that epic showdown with cousin, and now our dangerous little brother gets to take us on. Ugh. Plus, this is a huge game for lil' bro: with a win, K-State probably jumps to the right side of the bubble, considering they'd had won seven in a row including W's over Missouri, Texas and Kansas.

So, yeah, boo. Get past this game, though, and we should be 11-1 going into Norman. Yeah, that's the game that I wanna get up for. Not this one. It's a game we probably all should be getting up for, but we just can't. Or, at least, I can't. I'm too tired, too exhausted, too wiped out from MIssouri. I just hope our team isn't feeling the same way, or the Powercats'll wipe the floor.

Yeah, that would suck.

The rest of the abbreviated preview after the jump...

The Background

Entering our first matchup, K-State had NIT written all over it. Their non-con was incredibly barren, and it was agreed upon that it would take an awesome conference season to sneak into the NCAAs. And, after their expected L's to Boomer Sooner and in Lawrence, things didn't get any better. They got destroyed up in Lincoln (by 22), then came home and lost by 18 to a not-that-great Baylor squad. Yuck. At 0-4, their hopes of a good conference season were quickly sliding away. But then, in a game they had to have in the worst of ways, they were able to survive a last-second shot that would have tied the game in overtime against Colorado. They followed that up with a tremendous shooting performance and 17-point win against the Tiggers in Manhattan, then tripped down to Austin and upset the Longhorns in OT. Came home to narrowly escape the Cyclones, travelled down to College Station to take down the Aggies and, just on Wednesday, rushed out to an early lead against the Red Raiders and survived the comeback. Bam. An 0-4 start quickly turned into 6-4 in conference play, and an opportunity on Saturday to get on the right side of the bubble. Even if they lose tomorrow, they still figure to be in good shape. Every remaining game on the schedule, save a trip to Columbia, is entirely winnable. And if they lose tomorrow and lose to Missouri, they can still end up going 10-6 in conference play. That should be plenty good enough.

The Offense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (143rd) -- This is significantly worse than what they were coming into Allen Field House (106th), and is obviously a more accurate representation. They take plenty of stupid shots (particularly Denis Clemente), but when they're falling they are awesome offensively. Like, when their eFG% was 62.1% against Missouri, compared to their overall mark of 49.8%. What? So, let's all just hope they don't go ballistic again, and we shouldn't be too worried. They did only shoot 43% against us last time, though, so that's good.
Turnover % (120th) -- Nothing terribly special, nothing terrible, just well below average. We can turn them over a bunch; if so, we should win. If not, and they hold on to the ball, they have a chance.
Offensive Rebounding % (3rd) -- This is their strength of the entire team. They eat you up on the offensive glass. We actually did a pretty good job, overall, when we played 'em; only gave them 38% of their opportunities, compared to their 42% season average. They might be better at home, but I'm also positive that the Law Firm (Morris, Morris & Little) are much better than they were then. So, that should be something interesting to watch; to see the difference. With all of the shots they miss, as long as you don't let them get a billion second-chance points you should be OK.
FTA/FGA (54th) -- They shoot more free throws than most teams, particularly Jamar Sameuls, who draws the 11th most fouls per 40 minutes (7.2). Darren Kent and Ron Anderson both get fouled quite a bit, but not nearly as many as JamSam, or whatever the hell they call him.

Miscellaneous

As a team, despite getting there a bunch, they are godawful from the free throw line: 65%. Yuck. So, don't be too scared at them going to the FT line.

The Defense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (80th) -- Not exceptional, but they won't give you a boatload of open, good looks. We could really use some open threes actually falling, so please make 'em, Brady and Tyrel. We really, really could use some.
Turnover % (22nd) -- The real strength of their defense, they turn you over a bunch. Really, that's their entire defensive philosophy. They didn't turn us over much at all in Allen, and that played a large role in how we won. Whatever the case, just don't have another disastrous 27 turnover game like in Columbia. Say what you will, but that was the main reason we lost. That is just embarrassing. Don't let it happen again.
Offensive Rebounding % (106th) -- Again, this is where the Law Firm's improvement comes in to play. If they can be huge offensive contributors because of their second-chance points (particularly McMorris and Kieffer), we should be in great shape. If not, the pressure's on Cole and Sherron and open threes.
FTA/FGA (333rd) -- With how many turnovers they go for, this isn't all that surprising. However, this is just ridiculous. They foul you a shitload. In fact, on average, take your field goals attempted and divide by two, and that's how many freebies you shoot. Honestly. That is just ludicrous. So, make your throws, and we should be fine. It could be just as simple as that.

The Players

I didn't do it particularly well the first time, but I don't want to completely rehash the player-by-player previews. So, here are just some quick notes:

Guards -- The leaders of this team, the best players, all of that, are Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. Together, the shoot more than 55% of the team's shots. That is ludicrous. Clemente is the better three-point shooter (39% to Pullen's 30%), but both still prefer to drive the ball into the lane. That's their game. But Tyshawn on Pullen, Sherron on Clemente and tell 'em both to keep them out of the lane and you should be OK. Pullen is the much better defender, so there's that. Oh, and then there is Fred Brown. Freddie Brown is the real three-point shooter on the team (45% on over 100 shots), so watch out for him.
Forwards -- The forwards are kind of under-the-radar types. Darren Kent, a.k.a the travelling machine, is pretty solid on the boards. He isn't terribly efficient on offense, though, so whatever. Ron Anderson, on the other hand, is a much better rebounder on both sides of the ball. Close to awesome, really. Moving out to the wing, you have the best athlete on the team, Dominique Sutton. Dominique is yet another slasher, and is highest on the teams in steal %. He can explode, but is also really inconsistent (a lot like Denis Clemente, really), so hopefully he doesn't get too crazy. The other key minute-earner at the forward slot is Jamar Samuels. I like JamSam as a player, another athletic specimen who is still developing as a player. Like we mentioned earlier, he gets fouled all of the time, so hopefully the Law Firm can keep their hands off, for the most part. JamSam is another excellent offensive rebounder, and rarely turns the ball over. Finally, in the regular minutes category, we've got Luis Colon. Mostly, he's just another damn good rebounder, and is largely irrelevant on offense. Still, we have to pay attention, because he can pile up the boards.

The Keys

Make Your Throws -- With how often they foul you, a lot of it simply comes down to how many freebies you can hit. We've had a roller-coaster ride at the free throw line as a team, having some excellent games and having some where we couldn't get anything to go. The Morris twins, at least, are starting to become money from there, to along with the awesome freebie talents of Tyrel Reed, Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich. Tyshawn is getting better, too. So, I'm not terribly worried about this, but it is definitely a key.
Hit Your Open Threes -- They give you a bunch of open threes, ranking 204th in the country in opposing 3-point%. So, when we are presented with the inevitable open threes, the ones we consistently missed against Okie State and Missouri, we've gotta hit them. We hit those, we are in tremendous shape. If not, their D can capitalize on our unbalanced offensive performance (everything in the lane), and force a bunch of turnovers, and we could be upset. Let's just make them, OK?
Box the Hell Out -- Law Firm, I'm looking at you. Come on. Box out. This K-State team makes their living off of second-chance points. They get into the NCAA Tournament, it'll be because of their offensive glass prowess. So, I'm not expecting zero second-chance points from the Powercats. But, just don't get consistently destroyed by them. Box out, go up and grab the ball when it's up there, don't give away easy ones. We rebound with them, and their offense should struggle, big-time.

That's all. Prediction-and-more coming in the OGT tomorrow...

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State #1

rockchalk — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 15:51:17 -0000

OK, so, for each of the conference games, I intend to do a preview. For some games, depending on time and other events occurring, I might do some other preview-type elements, but this should be the staple for all sixteen conference games. Basically, all I'm going to use is the new-and-improved-and-even-awesomer KenPom pages. Here is Kansas State's. We'll break it down into a couple of sections, or segments if you'd rather, and then conclude with some final thoughts on the game...

Opening Thoughts

Ah. The Kansas State Wildcats. I don't want to start spewing any hate, as there's been plenty of little jabs from both sides. You've got the sometimes-funny, oftentimes-reaching course list over at BOTC and then Denver's patriotic, Kansas-loving defending comments on said thread, as well as his little jabs throughout his own Kansas-KSU preview. Nothing like the stuff over at BOTC, but it is still clear we're in hate week. Or Hate Week. Capitilization or not, this game is pretty much a must-win. While I have yet to really freak out about our potential postseason possibilities, or lack thereof as it were, we likely need to go undefeated at home agains the North, at the very least, to stay safe. Pending some major upset, like beating the Longhorns in Allen or the Boomer Sooners in Norman, we can't afford to lose games like Tuesday night's and still squeak into the NCAA's. And so, this is, in a weird way, a must-win game. Not only for those NCAA reasons, but also for confidence's sake. We got demolished on Saturday, and despite a generally positive second half, the completely negative first half is likely still fresh in our minds.

The Background

Kansas State is not an NCAA Tournament team this year. They are a good team, a decent team, a team with some talented players. There is no Michael Beasley or Bill Walker on this year's squad, but they have a nice handful of players that are solid. Of course, they've yet to beat anyone of note. Seriously. Their best win, without question, is against Cleveland State. Now, the game was in Cleveland, and this is the same Vikings team that defeated Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. Still, though, Cleveland State is no resume-defining win. They have played a grand total of four other games against Top 100 teams according to KenPom's ratings (vs. Kentucky, vs. Iowa and vs. Oklahoma); they lost three of the four. The first two were played in Las Vegas, and were close, two-point affairs. The Kentucky loss is slightly excusable, but there is no excuse for losing to the Iowa Hawkeyes. And then, last Saturday, they had a chance to pick up a huge win, a win that could catapult them into some NCAA competition. They have also lost to Oregon, who has sucked thus far in the Pac 10, but it was in Eugene and it was by only 5. Oh, and the other Top 100 win; against Southern Mississippi (Larry Eustachy-coached Golden Eagles, by the way) in Kansas City. So, here's what we've got. We've got a bunch of wins against patsies (9 wins against sub-100 teams; 8 of them above 200), a pair of decent victories (@ Cleveland State and vs. Southern Mississippi) and a four losses; one of them entirely defendable (vs. Oklahoma), two of them somewhat acceptable (@ Oregon and vs. Kentucky) and one that doesn't quite compute (vs. Iowa). It's got NIT written all over it, as long as they can win the easy, conference games at home.

The Offense

They are actually a pretty efficient offensive team. Not tremendous, but they are ranked 57th in adjusted efficiency. Breaking it down into more specific categories, they are mostly middle-of-the-road. An average three-point shooting team (35.7%; 107th), a not-much-better two-point shooting team (49.4%; 111th) and average at Effective FG% (50.8; 106th). They are, however, incredibly proficient in one area: offensive rebounding. Which, given are persistent trouble in that area, is particularly worrisome. If we lose, it will almost assuredly be because an exhorbiant amount of second chance opportunities by the Powercats. They are the second rated team in all of college basketball in Offensive Rebounding % (43.8%, meaning that of all shots they miss on the offensive end, they end up picking up nearly 44% of them). This is, quite obviously, the key to their offense, as they aren't a great shooting team. As I mentioned. Of course, this incredibly high offensive rebounding percentage is exaggerated because of two stellar performances; against Wagner and Florida A&M. While Wagner isn't terrible on the defensive boards (132nd in NCAA), the Rattlers are flat-out terrible, ranking 329th. Out of 344. So, while sure, they're a really good offensive rebounding team, they might not be quite as stellar as the numbers make it out to be. They're also really good at not getting their shots blocked (18th in the country), whatever that's worth.

The Defense

The Wildcats real strength is on the defensive side of the ball, though. Their defensive efficiency is off the charts; 11th in the country. They are particularly stellar at two aspects (two of the Four Factors, or four most important elements, too); effective FG% and turnover %. They force a shitload of turnovers, a little more than one every four possessions, which is good enough for 12th in the country. Of course, that turnover percentage is quite exaggerated by a couple of games against creampuffs. They forced a turnover on 40% of Kentucky's possessions in their matchup, and one on 36% of the possessions against Gardner-Webb. That is ridiculous. And they don't let their opponents shoot well; at all. Which is quite important to being a good defense. However, their defense is absolutely terrible at one thing. This is mostly explainable, given the incredble propensity they force turnovers with, but still quite noteworthy nonetheless. They foul. A lot, a lot, a lot. They foul so much, opponents such nearly one free throw for every field goal attempted. Now, this statistic is also inflated because of the high amount of turnovers; as the more turnovers, the less field goals attempted. Still, it is also heavily impact by the amount of fouls by the Powercats. And that, right there, is the Powercats' defensive strategy. To foul and slap and cut lanes and do plenty of stuff attempting to force turnovers, never particularly worried about fouling in the process.

The Players

In KenPom's new team pages, which are so amazing it isn't even funny, he has included a new listing of the players. As opposed to merely listing the players in two general sections (starting lineup and bench), he has now divided the players into several separate categories; Major Contributors, Significant Contributors, Role Players, Limited Roles and Nearly Invisbile. Naturally, we're not going to spend too much time on the Nearly Invisible, and not too much on those with LImited Roles, either. Instead, we'll focus on the first three categories, which presents us with eight players to discuss. Here are those seven players, in order of contribution, roughly:

Major Contributors

Jacob Pullen - #0 Soph. G -- Pullen is the Wildcats' best player. Simple as that. He was overshadowed by the two big stars last season, but now that he is the main show in town, he is performing. He easily plays the most minutes on the team, controls the ball more and shoots the most. He is their primary three-point shooter, having put up 100 treys so far in D-1 games, although he isn't terribly efficient (shooting 35%).
Darren Kent - #42 Sr. F/C -- This is surprising to me. Now, I understand Kent is a better player than he was last year, but he never really impressed me a year ago. And now, he is their primary inside threat, one of the keys to their team. He's the best offensive rebounder on the team, which makes sense given the fact he's 6'10", and one of the best in the country (OR% of 15.4; 25th). He's a pretty good defensive rebounder, as well. He draws plenty of fouls, as well, so hopefully Cole sticks to his disciplined shot-blocking techniques and he doesn't commit any stupid fouls.

Significant Contributors

Denis Clemente - #21 Jr. G -- Denis Clemente is fast. Really fast. In fact, the fine folks over at BOTC took issue with some newspaper that called Sherron Collins was the Big 12's fastest player, vehemently claiming that Clemente should get the honor. Honestly, I'll have to wait until Tuesday night to really make a decision for myself, but he is fast. For sure. He is a decent shooter from the perimeter (36.7% in 60 shots), and a good assist man. Given his speed, I'd imagine he is a drive-and-kick guy, but the stats don't necessarily give credence to that. Still, Pullen's high amount of threes taken means he has to get them somewhere; I'd guess that Clemente's drives have led to plenty of those. I'm not too worried about him, though, as I think we have him under control. Besides Kalin Lucas on Saturday, we really haven't hade a guard go off on us all year. Well, besides that and Tuesday night against Siena. So, yeah, I suppose we're in a cold streak. This is a huge game for Tyshawn Taylor, who will likely be guarding Jacob Pullen. So, we'll get a matchup of the Sunflower State's two fastest basketball players; I don't think there is anyone arguing that.
Fred Brown - #1 So. G -- Fred Brown's best skill? His three-point shot, where he is shooting nearly 44%. Other than that, he is awfully generic. Nothing special, either on the good-or-bad side of the ledger. He will likely be Brady's assignment when they go small (Clemente, Pullen and Brown), and an assortment of the smaller guards when they go bigg(er) and bring in...
Jamar Samuels - #32 Fresh. F -- Jamar Samuels, on the other hand, is good at plenty of things. He's especially adpet at not turning the ball over (although that stat might not be all that important, given he is a F that is 6'7") and drawing fouls. And given the fact that the Morris twins will be his primary defenders, that's no fun. If either of the Morris twins, Kieff or Cus, fouls out early, we could be in for a long game. He's also a really good rebounder. In short, I just became more scared of the Powercats because of Jamar Samuels. He is good at those things we struggle at, particularly the Morris twins. Yikes.

Role Players

Dominique Sutton - #23 Soph. G/F -- I've gotta be honest, I expected Sutton to rank much higher on this list. After Pullen, I likely would've guessed that he is the second best/most important player on the team. Instead, he is merely a role player, according to KenPom. Still, given his height and relative reputation, I'd imagine that Brady draws the assignment, as long as he isn't the 4 in there at the time (which, according to the bolded players on KenPom's page he is at the start of games). He is another really good rebounder, particularly on the offensive end, and has quick hands; he's 107th in the country in steal%. He is average on just about everything else, nothing terribly special.
Ron Anderson - #40 Soph. F -- Ron Anderson is their dirty-work player. Honestly, the kind of player I think is Quintrell Thomas' floor in terms of production. While he could develop into a Darnell Jackson, I think that 'Trell, at the very least, will be our Ron Anderson by the beginning of next season. A solid player, who can play pretty good defense and is an absolutely fantastic rebounder (51st in the country if offense; 239th if defense). He is also good at drawing fouls.

The Keys

Get the ball in to Cole - Really, all K-State has in the way of comparable height to Cole is Jason Kent, and he is quite then. Sure, he is a damn good rebounder, but he isn't incredible, and he likely can't handle Cole one-on-one for an entire game. Look for lots of doubles, which is fine with me considering Cole's passing skills. In any case, no matter what happens after the fact, get the ball in to Cole and see how the defense reacts. If no one comes over to help out, I'd be fine with Cole taking Kent to the bakset every single time. If someone doubles, do that ball movement thing we are so good at, and find someone open.
Don't Foul! - I'm specifically looking at the Morris twins and Mario Little, if he plays at least. They are all expected to guard players that have a high propensity to draw fouls (Jamar Samuels and Ron Anderson), and we can't afford foul trouble. It's OK to challenge shots and play good, hard, physical defense. That, I can live with. But please, please, stop the stupid fouls. Please.
Make the Free Throws - Given Kansas State's immense fouling tendencies, it is likely inevitable we are going to get fouled. I mean, it could reach Eddie Hightower status without Eddie actually even showing up to Allen. And so, when we get our trips to the free throw line, we've got to knock them down. If we give away enough free points, we could lose this game.

Concluding Thoughts

This is one of those games. Y'know, those games that you really have to win, and you know you should win, but you just don't feel all that comfortable going in. It's weird. And, this preview did not make me feel better; particularly the bit about Jamar Samuels. Now, I'm mostly frightened of him. Hopefully the Morris twins can step it up. But, seriously, we've got to win. And although it certainly isn't a sure thing, it is at home. And that's big for such a young team. We've played like a much different team at the Field House all year, and hopefully that confident, playmaking team is the one that shows up Tuesday night. If not, we could be in for a shock; a shock that would send our once so-promising postseason thoughts going down, down, down. We can probably survive one loss like this in conference play. Either a home game against average competition, or an away game against bad competition. I don't want to use it up in the first game of conference play.

Oh, yeah, and it's K-State. They should never, ever beat us in Allen. Ever. So there's that, too.

Check back here an hour before the game (hopefully) for the Open Game Thread.

Get to Know Your Rival; Kansas State

Denverjhawk — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Well last year for the first time in a long time Kansas State had some serious name recognition associated with their team. Sure there were the days of Pervis Pasco, Larry Reid or even Manny Dies, but not since Mitch Richmond have Kansas fans had as much reason to know much about our rivals to the west as we did last year. Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are now gone, so what remains, and what can we look for going into the matcup Tuesday with the Wildcats?

Kansas State breakdown after the jump...

It's well documented that the Jayhawks are young and new. A near 80% turnover in every statistical category has led to the current rebuilding project we're all a witness to night in and night out. The state of Kansas produced 7 NBA draft picks last year. 5 out of the University of Kansas, 2 out of Kansas State. What remains is either the continuation of a rivalry resurrected or the beginning of another period controlled by the Jayhawks. Beasley and Walker put them back on the map and now Frank Martin and his current squad have to keep them there.

Jacob Pullen, Dominique Sutton and Denis Clemente are all players that come into the season with expectations to lead. Pullen was a solid compliment to the talent last year and has picked up some of the slack this year so far averaging over 14 points per game. Clemente after missing all of 2007 returns as one of the more experienced players on the team and has contributed accordingly through the non-conference schedule checking in as the teams 2nd leading scorer and assist man in 2008. Sutton was a high profile recruit that arrived with Beasley so while he went relatively undetected he is expected to be a key contributor and so far has played good but not great for Frank Martin.

Beyond those three, several others have stepped up early this year but are also considered question marks when looking at how well the season will go in Manhattan. Jamar Samuels a 6'7" redshirt freshman has shown flashes of great play against some of Kansas State's opponents including solid games against both Iowa and Oregon in losing efforts. Darren Kent is the Wildcats lone contributing senior and leads the team in rebounding with just over 6 per game.

Overall as young as the season is and as many question marks as these two teams have, it's tough to get a good read. Kansas State lacks a true marquee win and with close losses to Kentucky and Iowa at home along with a 5 point loss to Oregon on the road appears to be in a similar spot, possibly even a tougher one than the Jayhawks. No one can fault them for the loss to OU the likely favorite in the Big 12 this year, but without a real strong win to speak of I think this K-State team will go through a fair amount of growing pains in conference and show the same inconsistencies we've seen from our own Jayhawks.

Check out Bring on the Cats for addional info on the team and I would expect maybe the guys over there might drop in and give me a little insight into how wrong I really am here...they really seem to hate us. Looking forward to this one myself and I'll have a preview up late tonight or early tomorrow.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats: Las Vegas Invitational Semifinal

Truzenzuzex — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 00:39:29 -0000

Here we go, ladies and gentlemen of the Big Blue Nation -- the second semifinal of the Las Vegas Invitational. The first will be Iowa vs. West Virgina, which my wife and I will be attending as well. For most of you in the East, the UK vs. Kansas State game will begin at midnight EST. I know some of you will be up, and there will be an open thread as always for you to post your comments in. I will be showing up in there (Internet connection permitting) from the game if my reception is good enough.

I'll be posting some pics from the game later on or early tomorrow (time permitting). But right now, lets have a quick look at the player stats (all stats courtesy of StatSheet.com. Likely starters are highlighted as always. For more on the Kansas State Wildcats, be sure to check out the excellent Kansas State SB Nation blog Bring on the Cats.

Kentucky Player Stats
Player	GP/GS	MPG	PPG	FG%	3PTFG%	FT%	RPG	APG	TOPG	A/T	SPG	BPG
J. Meeks	4/4	35	24.3	42.10%	33.30%	84.00%	5	1.5	4.3	0.4	1.3	0.3
P. Patterson	4/4	32.8	16	67.50%	0.00%	76.90%	8.5	3.8	1.8	2.1	1.5	2.5
R. Harris	4/3	28	11	62.10%	0.00%	53.30%	3.8	1	3.3	0.3	1.3	0.5
P. Stevenson	4/4	26	7.8	47.10%	0.00%	88.20%	7.3	1.8	1.3	1.4	0.8	2.8
D. Liggins	4/0	20	4.8	50.00%	42.90%	0.00%	3	4.3	4	1.1	1	0.8
D. Miller	4/1	20	6.5	42.90%	14.30%	70.00%	3	1.8	2	0.9	0.5	0.3
M. Porter	4/4	19	4.3	40.00%	33.30%	66.70%	3.8	2.5	2.5	1	0.8	0.3
J. Harrellson	4/0	11.5	4.5	41.20%	0.00%	66.70%	3.5	0.5	0.3	2	0	1.5


Kansas State Player Stats
Player	GP/GS	MPG	PPG	FG%	3PTFG%	FT%	RPG	APG	TOPG	A/T	SPG	BPG
D. Sutton	5/5	27	10.4	52.60%	0.00%	70.60%	7	0.8	1.6	0.5	2.4	0.4
J. Pullen	5/5	26.2	14.8	35.30%	33.30%	77.80%	2	4.6	3	1.5	1.6	0
J. Samuels	5/0	22.6	11	64.70%	0.00%	44.00%	5.8	1.8	0.6	3	0.8	0.8
D. Clemente	5/5	21.6	13.4	44.70%	39.10%	84.20%	1.4	3.8	1.6	2.4	0.8	0
F. Brown	5/0	20.2	10	47.50%	50.00%	50.00%	1.6	2.2	1.8	1.2	0.4	0
D. Kent	5/5	20	9.8	50.00%	33.30%	65.00%	7	1.6	1.2	1.3	1	0.4
R. Anderson	5/0	18.4	4.8	47.10%	0.00%	50.00%	7.2	1.8	1.2	1.5	0.6	0.4
L. Colon	5/5	15.8	5.8	50.00%	0.00%	69.20%	4	0.8	0.4	2	0.2	1.2

Inside the paint

The main inside threat of Kansas State this year is 6'10" 230# Darren Kent, who is both an inside player and one of the leading rebounders. Kent is a senior out of Apple Valley, Minnesota.

From inside the arc, a major threat of Kansas State is Dominique Sutton, a smooth and powerful wing player with an excellent mid-range game. Sutton was a 4* Rivals player who joined the K-State Wildcats last year. This year, he is the third leading scorer nd second leading rebounder on the team.

Luis Colon starts at center, and he is a big guy at 6'10"/265#, but Ron Anderson, a 6'8" sophomore power forward and team's leading rebounder will do most of the time in that position if form holds, and neither of these two is a serious scoring threat although Anderson is a much better rebounder. Colon has a tendency to get into foul trouble. Jamar Samuels provides both rebounding and scoring from the bench.

I expect Kentucky to have an advantage at the 1-3 spots. Even though Sutton is a very dangerous player and Kent is big enough to post up, UK has more athletic and dynamic players in the 4 and 5 spot, and at the three, Ramon Harris is capable of handling Sutton.

Backcourt

Kansas State has a dynamic back court consisting of Jacob Pullen and Dennis Clemente, both dynamic scorers who can stroke it from three and score from everywhere else. These two guys will be the biggest challenge that UK will face, along with 3-point specialist Fred Brown who is shooting the long ball at 50% accuracy.

Unfortunately, neither Meeks nor Porter match up particularly well with these guys. Both Pullen and Clemente are small, quick and can penetrate the lane. Kentucky will have some difficulty this year handling smaller guard combos, and this could well be a very difficult team for UK to contain because of the guards. The back court play is likely to decide the game unless Kentucky dominates the front court, and I give the K-State Wildcats a slight edge in the back court.

Team stats

The team stats for these two contestants are as follows:

School	Kentucky	Kansas State	Comments
Conference	SEC	Big 12
State	KY	KS
Founded	1865	1863
School Type	Public	Public
Enrollment	26545	23182
Rankings
Conf Standing	N/A	N/A
AP Rank	0	0
RPI	0.48	0.56
RPI Rank	191	92	That's what 2-2 vs. 5-0 will get you.
SOS	0.52	0.42	UNC is why.
SOS Rank	146	258	Moving up, but still looks weak. KSU weaker, though.
Wins & Losses
Overall	2-2	5-0
Home	2-1	4-0
Away	0-1	1-0
Neutral	0-0	0-0
Conference	0-0	0-0
Top 25	0-1	0-0
Blowout (> 19)	2-0	3-0
Close (< 6)	0-0	0-0
Overtime	0-0	0-0
NCAA Tourney	0-0	0-0
Scoring
Pts Per Game	80.8	83.6	Both due to weak schedules so far.
Shooting
FG Pct	49.8	45.7	We shoot better because we have better inside players.
FT Pct	72.8	61.1
3pt FG Pct	29.9	34.7	This is where we are vulnerable.
Rebounds
Reb Per Game	43.5	46.2
Off Rebs Per Game	12	18	This is where their rebounding edge lies. We have to shut this down.
Def Rebs Per Game	29.3	25
Assists, Steals, & Blocks
Assists Per Game	17.8	19	Close.
Steals Per Game	7.5	9.4	Close.
Blocks Per Game	8.8	3.6	Not close. We are among the best in the NCAA.
Turnovers & Fouls
TO Per Game	21	12.8	Not close. If both are at season's average, KSU wins.
Fouls Per Game	19.3	18	Surprisingly close. Slight advantage UK if FT shooting holds to form.

Conclusion

Kentucky and Kansas State match up very well, and this is an excellent early-season test for the improving Kentucky Wildcats. Kansas State is not the team they were last year with Michael Beasly and Bill Walker, but they are very competent and more than sufficiently talented to test Kentucky, particularly in the back court.

This will be a very interesting game, and will tell us if the last two blowouts have actually included the signs of improvement we all think we see, or just the mirage of competence courtesy of inferior competition. This game will tell us much about the Kentucky Wildcats, for good or ill.

SB Nation - Fred Brown

Kansas State: Know Your Rival

vs Big 12Kansas State: 7-5

Keys to the Game

Prediction

Biggest key for tonight?

Turnovers

The first 15 minutes

The 3-pointer

Good Leo making an appearance

Containing Denis Clemente

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State (Again)

Opening Thoughts

The Background

The Offense

The Defense

The Players

The Keys

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State #1

Opening Thoughts

The Background

The Offense

The Defense

The Players

The Keys

Concluding Thoughts

Get to Know Your Rival; Kansas State

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats: Las Vegas Invitational Semifinal

Inside the paint

Backcourt

Team stats

Conclusion

vs Big 12
Kansas State: 7-5