SB Nation - Darren Kent

BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.09.09 (Postseason Awards Edition)

BracketCat — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 05:00:11 -0000

Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 3.8.2009 at 4:37 AM CST)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks	14	2	25	6
No. 2 seed Oklahoma Sooners	13	3	27	4
No. 3 seed Missouri Tigers	12	4	25	6
No. 4 seed Kansas State Wildcats	9	7	21	10
No. 5 seed Texas Longhorns	9	7	20	10
No. 6 seed Texas A&M Aggies	9	7	23	8
No. 7 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys	9	7	20	10
No. 8 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers	8	8	18	11
No. 9 seed Baylor Bears	5	11	17	13
No. 10 seed Iowa State Cyclones	4	12	15	16
No. 11 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders	3	13	13	18
No. 12 seed Colorado Buffaloes	1	15	9	21

It's Big 12 Tournament time! Let the games begin!

Big 12 Outlook will morph a bit this week. In this edition, I take a look at the overall predictive performance for the 2009 conference season and hand out my end-of-season awards. Later in the week, Outlook will project tournament outcomes based on current available information.

There will be a Big 12 Outlook posted every morning of the tournament, which I may or may not update throughout the day with game outcomes. It depends on how busy I am at work. However, I do hope the comments section on said entries will function as a live discussion for the BOTC community, much as our game threads do already.

	Seed	Record	RPI	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Streak	Best Win*	Worst Loss*	Coach
Kansas	1	14-2	8	10	10	W-1	Missouri	UMass	Bill Self
Oklahoma	2	13-3	4	18	8	W-1	Purdue	Arkansas	Jeff Capel
Missouri	3	12-4	11	11	12	L-1	Kansas	Nebraska	Mike Anderson
Kansas State	4	9-7	77	41	44	W-1	Missouri	Oregon	Frank Martin
Texas	5	9-7	36	27	26	L-1	UCLA	Arkansas	Rick Barnes
Texas A&M	6	9-7	29	45	41	W-6	Missouri	Baylor	Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State	7	9-7	26	32	32	L-1	Texas	Baylor	Travis Ford
Nebraska	8	8-8	69	61	70	W-2	Missouri	UMBC	Doc Sadler
Baylor	9	5-11	75	64	63	L-2	Arizona State	Iowa State	Scott Drew
Iowa State	10	4-12	160	115	113	W-1	Houston	SDSU	Greg McDermott
Texas Tech	11	3-13	129	95	101	L-1	Kansas	Lamar	Pat Knight
Colorado	12	1-15	233	180	202	L-11	Iowa State	Montana State	Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*According to Pomeroy rating

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook went out with a semi-whimper, going 4-2 on the final Saturday. Missouri's loss, although perhaps predictable with an "eyeball test," even prevented Outlook from correctly predicting the final seed order, as Texas A&M jumped Oklahoma State in the 9-7 tie mess, while Missouri fell back below the Oklahoma team they beat earlier in the week.

The other whiff was thanks to the ever-underachieving Baylor Bears, who I swear must be responsible for at least 5 of my 22 incorrect picks. I have some more thoughts on this in my awards, but Scott Drew did a bang-up job of wasting a lot of good talent this season.

By the way, who do you think will win the tournament? Be sure to scroll to the bottom of the page and vote in my poll. As for Outlook's opinion on the 1st round outcomes, you'll have to wait until Wednesday morning for those predictions. Today is more about looking back at where we've been more than where we're going.

All told, Outlook correctly predicted the outcomes of 74 of the 96 conference games this season, for about 77 percent accuracy. I thus award myself a C+ for the season; not too shabby for my first attempt at this. My goal for next year, though, is 80 percent or better.

Perhaps more impressive were the correct predictions of Kansas State as the No. 4 seed as far back as mid-February, of Oklahoma State's eventual 6-game winning streak as far back as early February and of Missouri's undefeated home season as far back as mid-January.

Final pick record: 74-22 (.771)

Postseason Awards: The Botcies

The Big 12 Conference awarded its postseason honors to players and coaches today, as well as selecting its 1st, 2nd and 3rd all-conference teams and honorable mentions.

Well, I have some disagreements with their selections, which I think are worth debating, as well as some original awards of my own to hand out. Read on to see the winners of the inaugural Botcies... (Get it? BOTCies?)

Player of the Year

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

Uh, like I'm going to argue with this? My only wish is that Michael Beasley had stuck around so Blake could have actually had some competition for the award.

Defensive Players of the Year

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

With all due respect to J.T. Tiller and very little due respect to Cole Aldrich, there was no more dominating presence in the paint this season than Blake Griffin. Not one week went by where I didn't drop my jaw at one of his blocks on ESPN's Gym Gems.

I don't really have anything against Tiller; I just don't like giving out co-awards very much because I think it's sort of a cop-out. As for Aldrich, honoring him ignores the fact that he got away with a ton of uncalled fouls in the process of accruing those defensive statistics, solely because his jersey said "Kansas." I refuse to ignore that fact.

J.T. Tiller (Missouri)

EDIT: All right, after some reflection, I decided to make this a co-award after all. What changed my mind? Well, I noticed Tiller was a unanimous selection to the all-defensive team. I figured if the 11 coaches not named Mike Anderson were that impressed with his defensive prowess, why shouldn't I be?

Newcomer of the Year

Denis Clemente (Kansas State)

Great pick by the Big 12. That said, it's not like there were a ton of options. Mario Little was really the only other transfer that was hyped coming into the season, and he didn't even come close to posting the sort of numbers or having the sort of impact Denis had.

I would just like to add that I predicted this award for Denis last summer. I felt like he would have even more of an impact than DeMarre Carroll did last season, and I was right. If you're into handicapping, my early favorite for Newcomer in 2009-10 is Curtis Kelly.

Freshman of the Year

Willie Warren (Oklahoma)

Also a solid pick. I don't know if he's one-and-done caliber, but there's no denying the kid was damned impressive.

Wally Judge will challenge for this award next season, Jayhawks. Better start getting used to the idea now...

Sixth Man of the Year

Matt Lawrence (Missouri)

Well, the Big 12 got this one half right. Matt Lawrence is probably the scariest spot-up shooter in the league not named Alan Voskuil, who I suppose is disqualified from this award since he is a starter. When I think of Lawrence, I think, "Thank God he's finally a senior!" Paul Velander should get an honorable mention, though.

But LaceDarius Dunn? Are you kidding me? I watched this kid very carefully after he lit us up in Manhattan for approximately 137 points, and let me tell you - it was a fluke. Dunn couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in any game I watched Baylor play after that, and the fact that he was the Bears' second-leading scorer and 3-point leader should tell you exactly why they finished 5-11. What a political pick. Hell, Fred Brown deserves this award more than Dunn.

The Darnell Jackson "Most Improved Senior" Overachievement Award

Darren Kent (Kansas State)

The first of my "original" Botcies, this award is named for Darnell Jackson, the Kansas player who didn't do very much until his senior year, when he was probably the best overall post player on a national championship team. No one other than Jayhawk fans saw that one coming.

There is no more deserving recipient of the inaugural Darnell Jackson Award than Darren Kent. When he signed his LOI, many Wildcat fans asked, "Who is this guy?" When Bob Huggins was hired, they were sure he would transfer. When he tried to dribble as a sophomore, they snickered. When he came in for Michael Beasley, they groaned.

Then came his senior year, and the awkward caterpillar metamorphosed into a graceful butterfly. He snagged rebounds, he shot jumpers, he banked off the glass, he played rugged defense, he broke his nose and played through the blood and the pain, he twisted his ankle and screamed at the trainers because they didn't get it re-taped fast enough so he could get back in and help his team win. Other than Denis Clemente, no player was more important to the Wildcats this season. White Tiger, you may never have your jersey retired, but know that you will still be missed.

The Aaron Bruce "Most Regressed Senior" Underachievement Award

Connor Atchley (Texas)

This award is named for the former Baylor guard who stunned the league as a freshman and basically got worse every season of his career. His senior year was by far his least productive, as he became something of an afterthought to younger, more athletic guards like Curtis Jerrells, Henry Dugat, Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn.

I don't normally like to dump on players, but the degree to which Connor Atchley's game went to crap this season is so striking it deserves comment. After last season, he looked like he was poised for a breakout alongside talented posts like Damion James and Dexter Pittman, but he instead spent most of the season missing dunks, blowing defensive assignments and being out-shined by Gary Johnson and Clint Chapman. At times, he was almost an active liability to his team. Frankly, these descriptions are nice compared to some of the things I have seen Texas fans call him.

The Joey Graham "Tough Son of a Bitch" Awards

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

I know the concussion didn't look like much, but did you see how this guy played when he came back against Texas Tech? Throughout the season he was tripped, punched in the nuts, whacked in the face multiple times and generally beat up every damn game, but he never complained and he gave as good as he got. What a warrior.

Darren Kent (Kansas State)

Dude played through a broken nose with no mask at Ames. Enough said.

Coach of the Year

Mike Anderson (Missouri)

Yeah, yeah, Self's a great coach, but it's not like he replaced all those starters with scrubs, people. Kansas is a program that reloads with top talent, and the Jayhawks returned one of the best guards and the only true center in the league. They were picked 3rd and they finished 1st by virtue of a concussion.

It's my opinion that Mike Anderson got screwed. It's a simple matter of numbers: Missouri was picked 7th and finished 3rd, and but for an upset loss Saturday would have finished 2nd. They were one of only two teams to beat the conference champion. Missouri is not a program that reloads with top talent, and Anderson deserves Coach of the Year for making them play like a program that does.

Honorable mention goes to Frank Martin, who could have earned it outright had he finished 10-6 again. That Baylor loss still sticks in my craw, though. K-State was picked 8th and finished tied for 4th, which ties Missouri for the most overachievement this season.

Most Underachieving Coach of the Year

Scott Drew (Baylor)

Baylor lost only Aaron Bruce (who, as I pointed out earlier, was playing so poorly as a senior that he wasn't much of a loss) and returned the entire rest of its team, while adding talented freshman Quincy Acy. The Bears were picked to tie Kansas for 3rd and they finished 9th. They lost to Iowa State and Texas Tech. They lost 10 of their last 12 games. They will be lucky to receive a bid to the NIT.

Considering there is apparently quite a lot of grumbling among the other 11 coaching staffs that Baylor is still playing fast and loose with the rules, despite being only five years removed from one of the worst scandals in sports history, you would think such shady tactics and so many talented and experienced guards would produce more than a 5-11 record. Coach Drew, congratulations on one of the worst coaching jobs I have seen in a long time. I hope John Wall and Latavious Williams answer your next phone call with raucous peals of laughter.

All-Big 12 First Team


Craig Brackins	DeMarre Carroll	Denis Clemente	Sherron Collins	Blake Griffin
Iowa State	Missouri	Kansas State	Kansas	Oklahoma

I put a lot of thought into this, and I think it's justified. First, I don't think any one team deserves two entries on this list, not even the champions. Second, I truly don't think Aldrich is that special, and in a normal year for bigs in the Big 12 he wouldn't have the kind of numbers he had this season. He's a good player, but not a great player. That screams 2nd team to me.

Denis Clemente tied the game-high for points set by Michael Beasley (44). He led his team in scoring. He made clutch shots all season long. Most of all, when the team was reeling, he put them on his back and became the leader they needed. The team took on his personality. It was simply electric to watch.

Thus, the top four seeds are represented by their best player, and Brackins, the best pure talent in the league not named Griffin, rounds out the 1st team. Please note that four of the five play in the North - more ammo for North defenders against the ignorant national media.

All-Big 12 Second Team


A.J. Abrams	Cole Aldrich	Byron Eaton	Damion James	Willie Warren
Texas	Kansas	Oklahoma State	Texas	Oklahoma

Aldrich switches places with Clemente, and Eaton replaces Anderson. I watched Oklahoma State a lot this year, and although Anderson was definitely their top scorer, Eaton is why that team won six of its last seven and is poised for an NCAA berth under a first-year coach. He saved his best for last, and frankly should have been an honorable mention for the Darnell Jackson Award.

All-Big 12 Third Team


James Anderson	Josh Carter	Ade Dagunduro	Cory Higgins	Leo Lyons
Oklahoma State	Texas A&M	Nebraska	Colorado	Missouri

I basically agree with the Big 12 when you get this low, except that I don't think Jerrells warrants any kind of consideration. No one on that crappy team does, frankly.

My honorable mentions would go to Ryan Anderson (Nebraska), Chinemelu Elonu (Texas A&M), Taylor Griffin (Oklahoma), Gary Johnson (Texas), Keiton Page (Oklahoma State), Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), J.T. Tiller (Missouri) and Alan Voskuil (Texas Tech).

All-Big 12 Defensive Team


Cole Aldrich	Blake Griffin	Terrel Harris	Dominique Sutton	J.T. Tiller
Kansas	Oklahoma	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Missouri

I will admit that Sutton is a bit of a homer pick, but he's a defensive specialist who has proven his worth many times over. As a freshman, he shut down Brandon Rush by himself. I was a little surprised he didn't even get an honorable mention. Mason and Roland being on there sort of struck me as a "you're not really good enough to even get honorable mention All-Big 12, so we'll give you this cookie instead" consolation prize.

P.S. I thought about Darren Kent, too, since he pretty much shut down Craig Brackins whenever he was assigned to him, which is not something I have seen many players do this year, but I've seen Darren have a few too many defensive breakdowns to go through with it.

All-Big 12 Freshman Team


Quincy Acy	Keiton Page	Jamar Samuels	Tyshawn Taylor	Willie Warren
Baylor	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Kansas	Oklahoma

I'm of the opinion that an All-Rookie team is weak. Clemente was already honored as Newcomer of the Year and 2nd Team by the Big 12, so he's covered. If Zaire Taylor wasn't good enough to be on the top three teams, why should he get a special spot here?

So, the Botcy policy will be to limit this team to true and redshirt freshmen. These are the future stars of the league, except maybe Warren, who may not be back next season.

Acy was the only Baylor player to truly impress me this season, so I included him to throw Baylor a bone after I have thoroughly dissed them in this entry up to this point. That said, it was a dead heat between him and Marcus Morris. Page is going to be a thorn in everyone's side for the next three years. Samuels - despite being unpolished, undersized, inexperienced and inconsistent - was K-State's 4th leading scorer, its blocks leader and one of its leading rebounders, as well as an instant energy guy off the bench. He will be a star player in the near future. Taylor was a pleasant surprise, and provided the Jayhawks the third scorer that Mario Little could never quite consistently be due to injuries.

Key

P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

Predicted Outcomes

01.10

3-2 (.600)

61 Tech
73 Baylor

67 I-State
75 Texas

61 Oklahoma
53 K-State

51 Missouri
56 Nebraska

61 A&M
72 O-State

01.12-01.14

4-1 (.800)

63 Texas
78 Oklahoma

71 K-State
87 Kansas

53 Nebraska
65 I-State

62 Colorado
107 Missouri

73 Baylor
84 A&M

01.17

6-0 (1.000)

92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)

73 Kansas
56 Colorado

46 I-State
77 Missouri

51 K-State
73 Nebraska

69 Oklahoma
63 A&M

71 Texas
49 Tech

01.19-01.21

3-2 (.600)

53 A&M
73 Kansas

55 Colorado
63 Tech

83 Baylor
65 K-State

97 Missouri
95 O-State

61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma

01.24

5-1 (.833)

77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)

82 Kansas
67 I-State

86 Tech
97 Missouri

76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)

76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma

58 A&M
67 Texas

01.26-01.28

3-3 (.500)

89 Oklahoma
81 O-State

78 Texas
72 Baylor

49 I-State
55 Colorado

72 Missouri
88 K-State

68 Kansas
62 Nebraska

70 Tech
79 A&M

01.31

4-2 (.667)

78 Oklahoma
68 I-State

85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)

61 Colorado
66 Kansas

72 Baylor
89 Missouri

82 Nebraska
69 Tech

64 O-State
76 A&M

02.02-02.04

4-2 (.667)

75 Kansas
65 Baylor

50 I-State
65 K-State

55 Nebraska
53 Colorado

69 Missouri
65 Texas

80 Tech
81 O-State

71 A&M
77 Oklahoma

02.07

4-2 (.667)

72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma

82 Missouri
68 I-State

65 K-State
60 A&M

67 O-State
78 Kansas

55 Texas
58 Nebraska

76 Baylor
83 Tech

02.09-02.11

5-0 (1.000)

60 Kansas
62 Missouri

74 O-State
99 Texas

78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor

42 Colorado
70 I-State

73 Tech
85 K-State

02.14

6-0 (1.000)

68 A&M
72 Baylor

85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)

67 I-State
86 O-State

85 Kansas
74 K-State

47 Nebraska
70 Missouri

74 Tech
95 Oklahoma

02.16-02.18

3-1 (.750)

66 Texas
81 A&M

55 I-State
72 Kansas

41 Colorado
46 Nebraska

92 O-State
82 Tech

02.21

6-0 (1.000)

66 Missouri
53 Colorado

50 K-State
46 I-State

53 Nebraska
70 Kansas

74 Baylor
84 O-State

79 A&M
73 Tech

68 Oklahoma
73 Texas

02.23-02.25

3-3 (.500)

87 Kansas
78 Oklahoma

62 Baylor
71 I-State

57 A&M
55 Nebraska

76 O-State
55 Colorado

74 K-State
94 Missouri

81 Tech
87 Texas

02.28-03.01

6-0 (1.000)

57 Colorado
75 Baylor

69 I-State
87 A&M

72 Nebraska
77 K-State

59 Texas
68 O-State

78 Oklahoma
63 Tech

65 Missouri
90 Kansas

03.02-03.04

5-1 (.833)

57 Baylor
73 Texas

71 K-State
77 O-State

72 A&M
66 Colorado

65 Kansas
84 Tech

64 Oklahoma
73 Missouri

61 I-State
77 Nebraska

03.07

4-2 (.667)

76 Tech
78 I-State

64 Colorado
76 K-State

73 Texas
83 Kansas

86 Missouri
96 A&M

66 Nebraska
62 Baylor

78 O-State
82 Oklahoma

Poll

Who do you think will win the 2009 Big 12 Tournament?

No. 1 Kansas

25 votes

No. 2 Oklahoma

38 votes

No. 3 Missouri

9 votes

No. 4 Kansas State

36 votes

No. 5 Texas

2 votes

No. 6 Texas A&M

1 votes

No. 7 Oklahoma State

0 votes

No. 8 Nebraska

2 votes

No. 9 Baylor

0 votes

No. 10 Iowa State

0 votes

No. 11 Texas Tech

0 votes

No. 12 Colorado

0 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

Kansas State: Know Your Rival

Bill C. — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Game 1 of the Keep Kansas From Winning the Conference Tour tips off tonight in Mizzou Arena, where Mizzou will play in its second revenge game of the year. The first one resulted in a 28-point road-to-home swing. Tonight's will need to result in at least a 17-point swing for Mizzou to move to Game 2 in Lawrence on Sunday.

vs Big 12
Kansas State: 7-5

	KSU	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.69	1.73
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.03	1.05
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.15	1.37
2-PT FG%	45.3%	46.4%
3-PT FG%	36.2%	40.7%
FT%	66.5%	70.7%
True Shooting %	50.4%	56.3%

	KSU	Opp
Assists	147	163
Steals	75	69
Turnovers	170	181
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.31	1.28

	KSU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	163	136
Offensive Rebounds	179	122
Difference	+16	-14

Here's why stats are so interesting and entertaining--this line right here tells you everything you need to know about Kansas State. They are a poor, poor shooting team that is occasionally careless with the ball, but they play solid pressure defense (BCI!) and crash the boards hard.
These Big 12 numbers should put into perspective just how far over their heads KSU played last time these teams met. Needless to say, KSU's Big 12 numbers are at least slightly dampened by a poor start to conference play, but regardless--62.5% true shooting %, 54.5% from 3-point range? Rare. If Mizzou holds KSU to its conference-play shooting averages, they should be in control of this game. If.
Mizzou will also have to shoot pretty well themselves, as they probably won't win the rebounding battle. Frank Martin has a team whose offensive talent is focused mostly on just 2-3 players, but the whole team rebounds well, especially the bench guys.

Stats by StatSheet.com

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Denis Clemente (Jr)	15.05	0.46	17.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.3 APG
Jacob Pullen (So)	9.78	0.30	12.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.6 APG
Darren Kent (Sr)	9.03	0.36	9.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jamar Samuels (Fr)	8.75	0.43	7.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG
Fred Brown (So)	6.08	0.27	7.2 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.5 APG
Dominique Sutton (So)	5.73	0.26	5.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.0 APG
Luis Colon (Jr)	4.37	0.20	4.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG
Ron Anderson (So)	4.33	0.21	2.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG
Buchi Awaji (Jr)	3.47	0.45	2.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG
Chris Merriewether (Jr)	1.59	0.21	1.0 PPG, 2.1 RPG
Victor Ojeleye (Fr)	-0.35	-0.53	2 minutes
Justin Werner (Fr)	-0.53	-0.21	5 minutes

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Denis Clemente is the patented "crazy guy in a fight." You don't really know what he's going to do, but you're not too enthusiastic about finding out. He might drop 40 on you, he might decide somebody's cheap-shotting him when they're not, he might be a game-changer, he might be a non-factor. No matter what, this will probably be a "Hey JT Tiller, I want to know what kind of chewing gum Mr. Clemente is chewing," situation.
Meanwhile, if you were to ask me where Jacob Pullen was from (and I didn't already know the answer), by looking at his stat line, I'd answer "Chicago" with no hesitation. He's got that Chicago game--lots of shots, low shooting %, decent assist numbers, lots of turnovers, lots of steals, big juevos--that we've seen in quite a few guys over the years (most recently Stefhon Hannah and Patrick Beverley). He'll shoot KSU into a game, and then shoot them out of it. He's not lacking in confidence, though, and KSU's identity is somewhat a reflection of his.
Jamar Samuels is an interesting freshman. He doesn't take a lot of shots (0.26 per minute), but he's efficient with the ball, and he'll be the best offensive rebounder on the court tonight. He averages 0.12 OR's per minute--for comparison, Mizzou's best in that category (Keith Ramsey) only averages 0.09.
KSU's front line--Kent and Colon--are rather offensively challenged (big men usually average in the 1.30-1.50 points per shot range--Kent averages 1.17, Colon 0.98), but they're very good at rebounding and muscling guys around. Though DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons both ended up with decent stats last time around, while the game was actually close Kent and Colon were neutralizing the two well enough for KSU's guards to get away with overplaying the ball against Zaire Taylor and J.T. Tiller, who combined for 8 turnovers.

Keys to the Game

Turnovers. Mizzou is a BCI team--it is very rare that they have more turnovers than their opponent, but led by the 8 from Tiller and Taylor, that's exactly what they encountered in Bramlage almost exactly a month ago. (The Tigers haven't lost for almost a month?? Damn!) KSU had a wonderful gameplan of getting into Mizzou's comfort zone before Mizzou could do the same. It worked in Manhattan, but it's much less likely to work a second time now that Mizzou knows it's coming.

It's Tiller/Taylor vs Clemente/Pullen, and whoever controls the ball better, wins.
The first 15 minutes. Average halftime score of a Mizzou loss: Opponents 38, Mizzou 26. Average halftime score of a Mizzou win: Mizzou 40, Opponents 29. Average score at the 15-minute mark of the last three Mizzou losses: Opponents 27, Mizzou 16. If you're going to strike Mizzou, strike early.
The 3-pointer. That's right, two of the three keys are the same as those from the Colorado game.

Mizzou's perimeter defense has been outstanding in conference play--opponents have only hit 66 of 215 3-pointers against them (30.7%). Without the first KSU game, that number falls to 28.0%. K-State hit 12 of 22 3-pointers at Bramlage (Jacob Pullen and Fred Brown: 10-for-14). They hit 9-of-12 during a stretch late in the first half and early in the second half, when the game was salted away.

There's no question that KSU has improved since the beginning of conference season, but the unmissable 3's were the main reason I called the trip to Bramlage "just one of those games." And that's fine if it was just one of those games...as long as it doesn't happen again. KSU makes 30% (or less) of their 3-pointers, Mizzou probably wins.

Prediction

I've got two conflicting feelings going on about this game. First, the game in Manhattan was more out of character for KSU than Mizzou. They're not a wonderful shooting team, but they couldn't miss that night, and Mizzou had an uncharacteristic number of turnovers. If both teams play an average game, Mizzou wins.

However, there's no question that K-State is a team that simply matches up very well with Mizzou. Some teams do, some don't...KSU does. They have confident, aggressive (and sometimes crazy) guards and a couple of strong bigs who can push DeMarre and Leo around a bit. While I think Mizzou will win this game--the revenge factor is strong, Mizzou plays extremely well at home, etc.--due to matchups things will probably be pretty tight (unless Pullen and Clemente hit an extremely cold stretch).

K-State hasn't played wonderfully since beating MU and Texas, back-to-back, in late-January to salvage their season. Pretty or not, though, they've continued to win. Overall, they've won 7 of 8 conference games and continue to fight for their NCAA Tourney lives. You never want to fight a desperate and crazy guy, and that's how KSU is looking right now. That said, Mizzou's depth and home court advantage are too much. Mizzou finally starts to pull away around the 6:00 or 8:00 mark of the second half and wins it, 79-71.

Poll

Biggest key for tonight?

Turnovers

27 votes

The first 15 minutes

23 votes

The 3-pointer

10 votes

Good Leo making an appearance

24 votes

Containing Denis Clemente

12 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State (Again)

rockchalk — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 02:14:44 -0000

Here we go, the second go-around of a Kansas State preview. I won't go over the same sort of stuff, because we went over just about all of it here, the first K-State KenPom preview.

Opening Thoughts

Is it just me, or are you all rivalled-out, too? It's like we exuded all of our effort trying to take on our cousin, only to have our little brother come on and attack us while we're down. Except, unlike not all-that-long ago, little brother can fight, too. Sure, these Powercats aren't as good or dangerous as last year's team, with Michael Beasley and Billy Walker, but they are still scary. They've won six in a row, and are incredibly hard to slow down. Once they get running, they are dangerous enough to beat a lot of teams. A lot of teams. So, yeah, this isn't going to be too much fun, methinks. We're still recovering from that epic showdown with cousin, and now our dangerous little brother gets to take us on. Ugh. Plus, this is a huge game for lil' bro: with a win, K-State probably jumps to the right side of the bubble, considering they'd had won seven in a row including W's over Missouri, Texas and Kansas.

So, yeah, boo. Get past this game, though, and we should be 11-1 going into Norman. Yeah, that's the game that I wanna get up for. Not this one. It's a game we probably all should be getting up for, but we just can't. Or, at least, I can't. I'm too tired, too exhausted, too wiped out from MIssouri. I just hope our team isn't feeling the same way, or the Powercats'll wipe the floor.

Yeah, that would suck.

The rest of the abbreviated preview after the jump...

The Background

Entering our first matchup, K-State had NIT written all over it. Their non-con was incredibly barren, and it was agreed upon that it would take an awesome conference season to sneak into the NCAAs. And, after their expected L's to Boomer Sooner and in Lawrence, things didn't get any better. They got destroyed up in Lincoln (by 22), then came home and lost by 18 to a not-that-great Baylor squad. Yuck. At 0-4, their hopes of a good conference season were quickly sliding away. But then, in a game they had to have in the worst of ways, they were able to survive a last-second shot that would have tied the game in overtime against Colorado. They followed that up with a tremendous shooting performance and 17-point win against the Tiggers in Manhattan, then tripped down to Austin and upset the Longhorns in OT. Came home to narrowly escape the Cyclones, travelled down to College Station to take down the Aggies and, just on Wednesday, rushed out to an early lead against the Red Raiders and survived the comeback. Bam. An 0-4 start quickly turned into 6-4 in conference play, and an opportunity on Saturday to get on the right side of the bubble. Even if they lose tomorrow, they still figure to be in good shape. Every remaining game on the schedule, save a trip to Columbia, is entirely winnable. And if they lose tomorrow and lose to Missouri, they can still end up going 10-6 in conference play. That should be plenty good enough.

The Offense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (143rd) -- This is significantly worse than what they were coming into Allen Field House (106th), and is obviously a more accurate representation. They take plenty of stupid shots (particularly Denis Clemente), but when they're falling they are awesome offensively. Like, when their eFG% was 62.1% against Missouri, compared to their overall mark of 49.8%. What? So, let's all just hope they don't go ballistic again, and we shouldn't be too worried. They did only shoot 43% against us last time, though, so that's good.
Turnover % (120th) -- Nothing terribly special, nothing terrible, just well below average. We can turn them over a bunch; if so, we should win. If not, and they hold on to the ball, they have a chance.
Offensive Rebounding % (3rd) -- This is their strength of the entire team. They eat you up on the offensive glass. We actually did a pretty good job, overall, when we played 'em; only gave them 38% of their opportunities, compared to their 42% season average. They might be better at home, but I'm also positive that the Law Firm (Morris, Morris & Little) are much better than they were then. So, that should be something interesting to watch; to see the difference. With all of the shots they miss, as long as you don't let them get a billion second-chance points you should be OK.
FTA/FGA (54th) -- They shoot more free throws than most teams, particularly Jamar Sameuls, who draws the 11th most fouls per 40 minutes (7.2). Darren Kent and Ron Anderson both get fouled quite a bit, but not nearly as many as JamSam, or whatever the hell they call him.

Miscellaneous

As a team, despite getting there a bunch, they are godawful from the free throw line: 65%. Yuck. So, don't be too scared at them going to the FT line.

The Defense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (80th) -- Not exceptional, but they won't give you a boatload of open, good looks. We could really use some open threes actually falling, so please make 'em, Brady and Tyrel. We really, really could use some.
Turnover % (22nd) -- The real strength of their defense, they turn you over a bunch. Really, that's their entire defensive philosophy. They didn't turn us over much at all in Allen, and that played a large role in how we won. Whatever the case, just don't have another disastrous 27 turnover game like in Columbia. Say what you will, but that was the main reason we lost. That is just embarrassing. Don't let it happen again.
Offensive Rebounding % (106th) -- Again, this is where the Law Firm's improvement comes in to play. If they can be huge offensive contributors because of their second-chance points (particularly McMorris and Kieffer), we should be in great shape. If not, the pressure's on Cole and Sherron and open threes.
FTA/FGA (333rd) -- With how many turnovers they go for, this isn't all that surprising. However, this is just ridiculous. They foul you a shitload. In fact, on average, take your field goals attempted and divide by two, and that's how many freebies you shoot. Honestly. That is just ludicrous. So, make your throws, and we should be fine. It could be just as simple as that.

The Players

I didn't do it particularly well the first time, but I don't want to completely rehash the player-by-player previews. So, here are just some quick notes:

Guards -- The leaders of this team, the best players, all of that, are Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. Together, the shoot more than 55% of the team's shots. That is ludicrous. Clemente is the better three-point shooter (39% to Pullen's 30%), but both still prefer to drive the ball into the lane. That's their game. But Tyshawn on Pullen, Sherron on Clemente and tell 'em both to keep them out of the lane and you should be OK. Pullen is the much better defender, so there's that. Oh, and then there is Fred Brown. Freddie Brown is the real three-point shooter on the team (45% on over 100 shots), so watch out for him.
Forwards -- The forwards are kind of under-the-radar types. Darren Kent, a.k.a the travelling machine, is pretty solid on the boards. He isn't terribly efficient on offense, though, so whatever. Ron Anderson, on the other hand, is a much better rebounder on both sides of the ball. Close to awesome, really. Moving out to the wing, you have the best athlete on the team, Dominique Sutton. Dominique is yet another slasher, and is highest on the teams in steal %. He can explode, but is also really inconsistent (a lot like Denis Clemente, really), so hopefully he doesn't get too crazy. The other key minute-earner at the forward slot is Jamar Samuels. I like JamSam as a player, another athletic specimen who is still developing as a player. Like we mentioned earlier, he gets fouled all of the time, so hopefully the Law Firm can keep their hands off, for the most part. JamSam is another excellent offensive rebounder, and rarely turns the ball over. Finally, in the regular minutes category, we've got Luis Colon. Mostly, he's just another damn good rebounder, and is largely irrelevant on offense. Still, we have to pay attention, because he can pile up the boards.

The Keys

Make Your Throws -- With how often they foul you, a lot of it simply comes down to how many freebies you can hit. We've had a roller-coaster ride at the free throw line as a team, having some excellent games and having some where we couldn't get anything to go. The Morris twins, at least, are starting to become money from there, to along with the awesome freebie talents of Tyrel Reed, Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich. Tyshawn is getting better, too. So, I'm not terribly worried about this, but it is definitely a key.
Hit Your Open Threes -- They give you a bunch of open threes, ranking 204th in the country in opposing 3-point%. So, when we are presented with the inevitable open threes, the ones we consistently missed against Okie State and Missouri, we've gotta hit them. We hit those, we are in tremendous shape. If not, their D can capitalize on our unbalanced offensive performance (everything in the lane), and force a bunch of turnovers, and we could be upset. Let's just make them, OK?
Box the Hell Out -- Law Firm, I'm looking at you. Come on. Box out. This K-State team makes their living off of second-chance points. They get into the NCAA Tournament, it'll be because of their offensive glass prowess. So, I'm not expecting zero second-chance points from the Powercats. But, just don't get consistently destroyed by them. Box out, go up and grab the ball when it's up there, don't give away easy ones. We rebound with them, and their offense should struggle, big-time.

That's all. Prediction-and-more coming in the OGT tomorrow...

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State #1

rockchalk — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 15:51:17 -0000

OK, so, for each of the conference games, I intend to do a preview. For some games, depending on time and other events occurring, I might do some other preview-type elements, but this should be the staple for all sixteen conference games. Basically, all I'm going to use is the new-and-improved-and-even-awesomer KenPom pages. Here is Kansas State's. We'll break it down into a couple of sections, or segments if you'd rather, and then conclude with some final thoughts on the game...

Opening Thoughts

Ah. The Kansas State Wildcats. I don't want to start spewing any hate, as there's been plenty of little jabs from both sides. You've got the sometimes-funny, oftentimes-reaching course list over at BOTC and then Denver's patriotic, Kansas-loving defending comments on said thread, as well as his little jabs throughout his own Kansas-KSU preview. Nothing like the stuff over at BOTC, but it is still clear we're in hate week. Or Hate Week. Capitilization or not, this game is pretty much a must-win. While I have yet to really freak out about our potential postseason possibilities, or lack thereof as it were, we likely need to go undefeated at home agains the North, at the very least, to stay safe. Pending some major upset, like beating the Longhorns in Allen or the Boomer Sooners in Norman, we can't afford to lose games like Tuesday night's and still squeak into the NCAA's. And so, this is, in a weird way, a must-win game. Not only for those NCAA reasons, but also for confidence's sake. We got demolished on Saturday, and despite a generally positive second half, the completely negative first half is likely still fresh in our minds.

The Background

Kansas State is not an NCAA Tournament team this year. They are a good team, a decent team, a team with some talented players. There is no Michael Beasley or Bill Walker on this year's squad, but they have a nice handful of players that are solid. Of course, they've yet to beat anyone of note. Seriously. Their best win, without question, is against Cleveland State. Now, the game was in Cleveland, and this is the same Vikings team that defeated Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. Still, though, Cleveland State is no resume-defining win. They have played a grand total of four other games against Top 100 teams according to KenPom's ratings (vs. Kentucky, vs. Iowa and vs. Oklahoma); they lost three of the four. The first two were played in Las Vegas, and were close, two-point affairs. The Kentucky loss is slightly excusable, but there is no excuse for losing to the Iowa Hawkeyes. And then, last Saturday, they had a chance to pick up a huge win, a win that could catapult them into some NCAA competition. They have also lost to Oregon, who has sucked thus far in the Pac 10, but it was in Eugene and it was by only 5. Oh, and the other Top 100 win; against Southern Mississippi (Larry Eustachy-coached Golden Eagles, by the way) in Kansas City. So, here's what we've got. We've got a bunch of wins against patsies (9 wins against sub-100 teams; 8 of them above 200), a pair of decent victories (@ Cleveland State and vs. Southern Mississippi) and a four losses; one of them entirely defendable (vs. Oklahoma), two of them somewhat acceptable (@ Oregon and vs. Kentucky) and one that doesn't quite compute (vs. Iowa). It's got NIT written all over it, as long as they can win the easy, conference games at home.

The Offense

They are actually a pretty efficient offensive team. Not tremendous, but they are ranked 57th in adjusted efficiency. Breaking it down into more specific categories, they are mostly middle-of-the-road. An average three-point shooting team (35.7%; 107th), a not-much-better two-point shooting team (49.4%; 111th) and average at Effective FG% (50.8; 106th). They are, however, incredibly proficient in one area: offensive rebounding. Which, given are persistent trouble in that area, is particularly worrisome. If we lose, it will almost assuredly be because an exhorbiant amount of second chance opportunities by the Powercats. They are the second rated team in all of college basketball in Offensive Rebounding % (43.8%, meaning that of all shots they miss on the offensive end, they end up picking up nearly 44% of them). This is, quite obviously, the key to their offense, as they aren't a great shooting team. As I mentioned. Of course, this incredibly high offensive rebounding percentage is exaggerated because of two stellar performances; against Wagner and Florida A&M. While Wagner isn't terrible on the defensive boards (132nd in NCAA), the Rattlers are flat-out terrible, ranking 329th. Out of 344. So, while sure, they're a really good offensive rebounding team, they might not be quite as stellar as the numbers make it out to be. They're also really good at not getting their shots blocked (18th in the country), whatever that's worth.

The Defense

The Wildcats real strength is on the defensive side of the ball, though. Their defensive efficiency is off the charts; 11th in the country. They are particularly stellar at two aspects (two of the Four Factors, or four most important elements, too); effective FG% and turnover %. They force a shitload of turnovers, a little more than one every four possessions, which is good enough for 12th in the country. Of course, that turnover percentage is quite exaggerated by a couple of games against creampuffs. They forced a turnover on 40% of Kentucky's possessions in their matchup, and one on 36% of the possessions against Gardner-Webb. That is ridiculous. And they don't let their opponents shoot well; at all. Which is quite important to being a good defense. However, their defense is absolutely terrible at one thing. This is mostly explainable, given the incredble propensity they force turnovers with, but still quite noteworthy nonetheless. They foul. A lot, a lot, a lot. They foul so much, opponents such nearly one free throw for every field goal attempted. Now, this statistic is also inflated because of the high amount of turnovers; as the more turnovers, the less field goals attempted. Still, it is also heavily impact by the amount of fouls by the Powercats. And that, right there, is the Powercats' defensive strategy. To foul and slap and cut lanes and do plenty of stuff attempting to force turnovers, never particularly worried about fouling in the process.

The Players

In KenPom's new team pages, which are so amazing it isn't even funny, he has included a new listing of the players. As opposed to merely listing the players in two general sections (starting lineup and bench), he has now divided the players into several separate categories; Major Contributors, Significant Contributors, Role Players, Limited Roles and Nearly Invisbile. Naturally, we're not going to spend too much time on the Nearly Invisible, and not too much on those with LImited Roles, either. Instead, we'll focus on the first three categories, which presents us with eight players to discuss. Here are those seven players, in order of contribution, roughly:

Major Contributors

Jacob Pullen - #0 Soph. G -- Pullen is the Wildcats' best player. Simple as that. He was overshadowed by the two big stars last season, but now that he is the main show in town, he is performing. He easily plays the most minutes on the team, controls the ball more and shoots the most. He is their primary three-point shooter, having put up 100 treys so far in D-1 games, although he isn't terribly efficient (shooting 35%).
Darren Kent - #42 Sr. F/C -- This is surprising to me. Now, I understand Kent is a better player than he was last year, but he never really impressed me a year ago. And now, he is their primary inside threat, one of the keys to their team. He's the best offensive rebounder on the team, which makes sense given the fact he's 6'10", and one of the best in the country (OR% of 15.4; 25th). He's a pretty good defensive rebounder, as well. He draws plenty of fouls, as well, so hopefully Cole sticks to his disciplined shot-blocking techniques and he doesn't commit any stupid fouls.

Significant Contributors

Denis Clemente - #21 Jr. G -- Denis Clemente is fast. Really fast. In fact, the fine folks over at BOTC took issue with some newspaper that called Sherron Collins was the Big 12's fastest player, vehemently claiming that Clemente should get the honor. Honestly, I'll have to wait until Tuesday night to really make a decision for myself, but he is fast. For sure. He is a decent shooter from the perimeter (36.7% in 60 shots), and a good assist man. Given his speed, I'd imagine he is a drive-and-kick guy, but the stats don't necessarily give credence to that. Still, Pullen's high amount of threes taken means he has to get them somewhere; I'd guess that Clemente's drives have led to plenty of those. I'm not too worried about him, though, as I think we have him under control. Besides Kalin Lucas on Saturday, we really haven't hade a guard go off on us all year. Well, besides that and Tuesday night against Siena. So, yeah, I suppose we're in a cold streak. This is a huge game for Tyshawn Taylor, who will likely be guarding Jacob Pullen. So, we'll get a matchup of the Sunflower State's two fastest basketball players; I don't think there is anyone arguing that.
Fred Brown - #1 So. G -- Fred Brown's best skill? His three-point shot, where he is shooting nearly 44%. Other than that, he is awfully generic. Nothing special, either on the good-or-bad side of the ledger. He will likely be Brady's assignment when they go small (Clemente, Pullen and Brown), and an assortment of the smaller guards when they go bigg(er) and bring in...
Jamar Samuels - #32 Fresh. F -- Jamar Samuels, on the other hand, is good at plenty of things. He's especially adpet at not turning the ball over (although that stat might not be all that important, given he is a F that is 6'7") and drawing fouls. And given the fact that the Morris twins will be his primary defenders, that's no fun. If either of the Morris twins, Kieff or Cus, fouls out early, we could be in for a long game. He's also a really good rebounder. In short, I just became more scared of the Powercats because of Jamar Samuels. He is good at those things we struggle at, particularly the Morris twins. Yikes.

Role Players

Dominique Sutton - #23 Soph. G/F -- I've gotta be honest, I expected Sutton to rank much higher on this list. After Pullen, I likely would've guessed that he is the second best/most important player on the team. Instead, he is merely a role player, according to KenPom. Still, given his height and relative reputation, I'd imagine that Brady draws the assignment, as long as he isn't the 4 in there at the time (which, according to the bolded players on KenPom's page he is at the start of games). He is another really good rebounder, particularly on the offensive end, and has quick hands; he's 107th in the country in steal%. He is average on just about everything else, nothing terribly special.
Ron Anderson - #40 Soph. F -- Ron Anderson is their dirty-work player. Honestly, the kind of player I think is Quintrell Thomas' floor in terms of production. While he could develop into a Darnell Jackson, I think that 'Trell, at the very least, will be our Ron Anderson by the beginning of next season. A solid player, who can play pretty good defense and is an absolutely fantastic rebounder (51st in the country if offense; 239th if defense). He is also good at drawing fouls.

The Keys

Get the ball in to Cole - Really, all K-State has in the way of comparable height to Cole is Jason Kent, and he is quite then. Sure, he is a damn good rebounder, but he isn't incredible, and he likely can't handle Cole one-on-one for an entire game. Look for lots of doubles, which is fine with me considering Cole's passing skills. In any case, no matter what happens after the fact, get the ball in to Cole and see how the defense reacts. If no one comes over to help out, I'd be fine with Cole taking Kent to the bakset every single time. If someone doubles, do that ball movement thing we are so good at, and find someone open.
Don't Foul! - I'm specifically looking at the Morris twins and Mario Little, if he plays at least. They are all expected to guard players that have a high propensity to draw fouls (Jamar Samuels and Ron Anderson), and we can't afford foul trouble. It's OK to challenge shots and play good, hard, physical defense. That, I can live with. But please, please, stop the stupid fouls. Please.
Make the Free Throws - Given Kansas State's immense fouling tendencies, it is likely inevitable we are going to get fouled. I mean, it could reach Eddie Hightower status without Eddie actually even showing up to Allen. And so, when we get our trips to the free throw line, we've got to knock them down. If we give away enough free points, we could lose this game.

Concluding Thoughts

This is one of those games. Y'know, those games that you really have to win, and you know you should win, but you just don't feel all that comfortable going in. It's weird. And, this preview did not make me feel better; particularly the bit about Jamar Samuels. Now, I'm mostly frightened of him. Hopefully the Morris twins can step it up. But, seriously, we've got to win. And although it certainly isn't a sure thing, it is at home. And that's big for such a young team. We've played like a much different team at the Field House all year, and hopefully that confident, playmaking team is the one that shows up Tuesday night. If not, we could be in for a shock; a shock that would send our once so-promising postseason thoughts going down, down, down. We can probably survive one loss like this in conference play. Either a home game against average competition, or an away game against bad competition. I don't want to use it up in the first game of conference play.

Oh, yeah, and it's K-State. They should never, ever beat us in Allen. Ever. So there's that, too.

Check back here an hour before the game (hopefully) for the Open Game Thread.

Get to Know Your Rival; Kansas State

Denverjhawk — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Well last year for the first time in a long time Kansas State had some serious name recognition associated with their team. Sure there were the days of Pervis Pasco, Larry Reid or even Manny Dies, but not since Mitch Richmond have Kansas fans had as much reason to know much about our rivals to the west as we did last year. Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are now gone, so what remains, and what can we look for going into the matcup Tuesday with the Wildcats?

Kansas State breakdown after the jump...

It's well documented that the Jayhawks are young and new. A near 80% turnover in every statistical category has led to the current rebuilding project we're all a witness to night in and night out. The state of Kansas produced 7 NBA draft picks last year. 5 out of the University of Kansas, 2 out of Kansas State. What remains is either the continuation of a rivalry resurrected or the beginning of another period controlled by the Jayhawks. Beasley and Walker put them back on the map and now Frank Martin and his current squad have to keep them there.

Jacob Pullen, Dominique Sutton and Denis Clemente are all players that come into the season with expectations to lead. Pullen was a solid compliment to the talent last year and has picked up some of the slack this year so far averaging over 14 points per game. Clemente after missing all of 2007 returns as one of the more experienced players on the team and has contributed accordingly through the non-conference schedule checking in as the teams 2nd leading scorer and assist man in 2008. Sutton was a high profile recruit that arrived with Beasley so while he went relatively undetected he is expected to be a key contributor and so far has played good but not great for Frank Martin.

Beyond those three, several others have stepped up early this year but are also considered question marks when looking at how well the season will go in Manhattan. Jamar Samuels a 6'7" redshirt freshman has shown flashes of great play against some of Kansas State's opponents including solid games against both Iowa and Oregon in losing efforts. Darren Kent is the Wildcats lone contributing senior and leads the team in rebounding with just over 6 per game.

Overall as young as the season is and as many question marks as these two teams have, it's tough to get a good read. Kansas State lacks a true marquee win and with close losses to Kentucky and Iowa at home along with a 5 point loss to Oregon on the road appears to be in a similar spot, possibly even a tougher one than the Jayhawks. No one can fault them for the loss to OU the likely favorite in the Big 12 this year, but without a real strong win to speak of I think this K-State team will go through a fair amount of growing pains in conference and show the same inconsistencies we've seen from our own Jayhawks.

Check out Bring on the Cats for addional info on the team and I would expect maybe the guys over there might drop in and give me a little insight into how wrong I really am here...they really seem to hate us. Looking forward to this one myself and I'll have a preview up late tonight or early tomorrow.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats: Las Vegas Invitational Semifinal

Truzenzuzex — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 00:39:29 -0000

Here we go, ladies and gentlemen of the Big Blue Nation -- the second semifinal of the Las Vegas Invitational. The first will be Iowa vs. West Virgina, which my wife and I will be attending as well. For most of you in the East, the UK vs. Kansas State game will begin at midnight EST. I know some of you will be up, and there will be an open thread as always for you to post your comments in. I will be showing up in there (Internet connection permitting) from the game if my reception is good enough.

I'll be posting some pics from the game later on or early tomorrow (time permitting). But right now, lets have a quick look at the player stats (all stats courtesy of StatSheet.com. Likely starters are highlighted as always. For more on the Kansas State Wildcats, be sure to check out the excellent Kansas State SB Nation blog Bring on the Cats.

Kentucky Player Stats
Player	GP/GS	MPG	PPG	FG%	3PTFG%	FT%	RPG	APG	TOPG	A/T	SPG	BPG
J. Meeks	4/4	35	24.3	42.10%	33.30%	84.00%	5	1.5	4.3	0.4	1.3	0.3
P. Patterson	4/4	32.8	16	67.50%	0.00%	76.90%	8.5	3.8	1.8	2.1	1.5	2.5
R. Harris	4/3	28	11	62.10%	0.00%	53.30%	3.8	1	3.3	0.3	1.3	0.5
P. Stevenson	4/4	26	7.8	47.10%	0.00%	88.20%	7.3	1.8	1.3	1.4	0.8	2.8
D. Liggins	4/0	20	4.8	50.00%	42.90%	0.00%	3	4.3	4	1.1	1	0.8
D. Miller	4/1	20	6.5	42.90%	14.30%	70.00%	3	1.8	2	0.9	0.5	0.3
M. Porter	4/4	19	4.3	40.00%	33.30%	66.70%	3.8	2.5	2.5	1	0.8	0.3
J. Harrellson	4/0	11.5	4.5	41.20%	0.00%	66.70%	3.5	0.5	0.3	2	0	1.5


Kansas State Player Stats
Player	GP/GS	MPG	PPG	FG%	3PTFG%	FT%	RPG	APG	TOPG	A/T	SPG	BPG
D. Sutton	5/5	27	10.4	52.60%	0.00%	70.60%	7	0.8	1.6	0.5	2.4	0.4
J. Pullen	5/5	26.2	14.8	35.30%	33.30%	77.80%	2	4.6	3	1.5	1.6	0
J. Samuels	5/0	22.6	11	64.70%	0.00%	44.00%	5.8	1.8	0.6	3	0.8	0.8
D. Clemente	5/5	21.6	13.4	44.70%	39.10%	84.20%	1.4	3.8	1.6	2.4	0.8	0
F. Brown	5/0	20.2	10	47.50%	50.00%	50.00%	1.6	2.2	1.8	1.2	0.4	0
D. Kent	5/5	20	9.8	50.00%	33.30%	65.00%	7	1.6	1.2	1.3	1	0.4
R. Anderson	5/0	18.4	4.8	47.10%	0.00%	50.00%	7.2	1.8	1.2	1.5	0.6	0.4
L. Colon	5/5	15.8	5.8	50.00%	0.00%	69.20%	4	0.8	0.4	2	0.2	1.2

Inside the paint

The main inside threat of Kansas State this year is 6'10" 230# Darren Kent, who is both an inside player and one of the leading rebounders. Kent is a senior out of Apple Valley, Minnesota.

From inside the arc, a major threat of Kansas State is Dominique Sutton, a smooth and powerful wing player with an excellent mid-range game. Sutton was a 4* Rivals player who joined the K-State Wildcats last year. This year, he is the third leading scorer nd second leading rebounder on the team.

Luis Colon starts at center, and he is a big guy at 6'10"/265#, but Ron Anderson, a 6'8" sophomore power forward and team's leading rebounder will do most of the time in that position if form holds, and neither of these two is a serious scoring threat although Anderson is a much better rebounder. Colon has a tendency to get into foul trouble. Jamar Samuels provides both rebounding and scoring from the bench.

I expect Kentucky to have an advantage at the 1-3 spots. Even though Sutton is a very dangerous player and Kent is big enough to post up, UK has more athletic and dynamic players in the 4 and 5 spot, and at the three, Ramon Harris is capable of handling Sutton.

Backcourt

Kansas State has a dynamic back court consisting of Jacob Pullen and Dennis Clemente, both dynamic scorers who can stroke it from three and score from everywhere else. These two guys will be the biggest challenge that UK will face, along with 3-point specialist Fred Brown who is shooting the long ball at 50% accuracy.

Unfortunately, neither Meeks nor Porter match up particularly well with these guys. Both Pullen and Clemente are small, quick and can penetrate the lane. Kentucky will have some difficulty this year handling smaller guard combos, and this could well be a very difficult team for UK to contain because of the guards. The back court play is likely to decide the game unless Kentucky dominates the front court, and I give the K-State Wildcats a slight edge in the back court.

Team stats

The team stats for these two contestants are as follows:

School	Kentucky	Kansas State	Comments
Conference	SEC	Big 12
State	KY	KS
Founded	1865	1863
School Type	Public	Public
Enrollment	26545	23182
Rankings
Conf Standing	N/A	N/A
AP Rank	0	0
RPI	0.48	0.56
RPI Rank	191	92	That's what 2-2 vs. 5-0 will get you.
SOS	0.52	0.42	UNC is why.
SOS Rank	146	258	Moving up, but still looks weak. KSU weaker, though.
Wins & Losses
Overall	2-2	5-0
Home	2-1	4-0
Away	0-1	1-0
Neutral	0-0	0-0
Conference	0-0	0-0
Top 25	0-1	0-0
Blowout (> 19)	2-0	3-0
Close (< 6)	0-0	0-0
Overtime	0-0	0-0
NCAA Tourney	0-0	0-0
Scoring
Pts Per Game	80.8	83.6	Both due to weak schedules so far.
Shooting
FG Pct	49.8	45.7	We shoot better because we have better inside players.
FT Pct	72.8	61.1
3pt FG Pct	29.9	34.7	This is where we are vulnerable.
Rebounds
Reb Per Game	43.5	46.2
Off Rebs Per Game	12	18	This is where their rebounding edge lies. We have to shut this down.
Def Rebs Per Game	29.3	25
Assists, Steals, & Blocks
Assists Per Game	17.8	19	Close.
Steals Per Game	7.5	9.4	Close.
Blocks Per Game	8.8	3.6	Not close. We are among the best in the NCAA.
Turnovers & Fouls
TO Per Game	21	12.8	Not close. If both are at season's average, KSU wins.
Fouls Per Game	19.3	18	Surprisingly close. Slight advantage UK if FT shooting holds to form.

Conclusion

Kentucky and Kansas State match up very well, and this is an excellent early-season test for the improving Kentucky Wildcats. Kansas State is not the team they were last year with Michael Beasly and Bill Walker, but they are very competent and more than sufficiently talented to test Kentucky, particularly in the back court.

This will be a very interesting game, and will tell us if the last two blowouts have actually included the signs of improvement we all think we see, or just the mirage of competence courtesy of inferior competition. This game will tell us much about the Kentucky Wildcats, for good or ill.

SB Nation - Darren Kent

BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.09.09 (Postseason Awards Edition)

Big Twelve Conference Standings

Self-Evaluation

Postseason Awards: The Botcies

Player of the Year

Defensive Players of the Year

Newcomer of the Year

Freshman of the Year

Sixth Man of the Year

The Darnell Jackson "Most Improved Senior" Overachievement Award

The Aaron Bruce "Most Regressed Senior" Underachievement Award

The Joey Graham "Tough Son of a Bitch" Awards

Coach of the Year

Most Underachieving Coach of the Year

All-Big 12 First Team

All-Big 12 Second Team

All-Big 12 Third Team

All-Big 12 Defensive Team

All-Big 12 Freshman Team

Key

Predicted Outcomes

Who do you think will win the 2009 Big 12 Tournament?

No. 1 Kansas

No. 2 Oklahoma

No. 3 Missouri

No. 4 Kansas State

No. 5 Texas

No. 6 Texas A&M

No. 7 Oklahoma State

No. 8 Nebraska

No. 9 Baylor

No. 10 Iowa State

No. 11 Texas Tech

No. 12 Colorado

Kansas State: Know Your Rival

vs Big 12Kansas State: 7-5

Keys to the Game

Prediction

Biggest key for tonight?

Turnovers

The first 15 minutes

The 3-pointer

Good Leo making an appearance

Containing Denis Clemente

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State (Again)

Opening Thoughts

The Background

The Offense

The Defense

The Players

The Keys

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State #1

Opening Thoughts

The Background

The Offense

The Defense

The Players

The Keys

Concluding Thoughts

Get to Know Your Rival; Kansas State

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Kansas State Wildcats: Las Vegas Invitational Semifinal

Inside the paint

Backcourt

Team stats

Conclusion

vs Big 12
Kansas State: 7-5