SB Nation - Ade Dagunduro

NIT Preview: #6 Nebraska at #3 New Mexico

huskerlibrarian — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 03:53:22 -0000

Nebraska Cornhuskers (18-12, 8th, Big XII) at New Mexico Lobos (21-11, T1st MWC)

**Statistical Comparison**
Nebraska	Category	New Mexico
64.3	Points	73.7
27.9	Rebounds	34.3
13.3	Assists	15.4
11.5	Turnovers	12.4
8.5	Steals	6.5
43.9%	FG%	46.1%
36.3%	3FG%	38.0%
69.8%	FT%	70.2%
102.6	Off. Efficiency	112.5
90.8	Def. Efficiency	94.7
63.2	Tempo (possessions/game)	65.6
73.8"	Average Height	77.5"

After shocking the surprisingly strong Mountain West Conference and finishing tied for 1st, the Lobos probably hoped they could make the NCAA Tournament. Nebraska, on the other hand, after some close losses at home and a few bad losses saw its season vary narrowly between an NCAA tournament run and a CBI appearance, ending up disappointingly with an NIT road game, and a very tough region.

The Lobos have a lot going for them. The Pit, New Mexico's famous home court, is a big home-court advantage (81% of home wins in 40+ years), and have first-team All-MWC Guard Tony Danridge, who has averaged 22.4 points over his last 6 games. Expect Ade Dagunduro -- NU's best defender -- to match up all night with Danridge.

Nebraska and New Mexico had three common opponents: The Huskers went 3-0 against Creighton, TCU, and Texas Tech (with road wins at TCU and Tech), while the Lobos went 2-2 (sweeping TCU, but losing at Creighton and Texas Tech).

It will be a difficult endeavour for the Huskers to pull out a win, but they can do it. Win, and they likely head to South Bend to play Notre Dame. Lose, and the season's over.

BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.09.09 (Postseason Awards Edition)

BracketCat — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 05:00:11 -0000

Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 3.8.2009 at 4:37 AM CST)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks	14	2	25	6
No. 2 seed Oklahoma Sooners	13	3	27	4
No. 3 seed Missouri Tigers	12	4	25	6
No. 4 seed Kansas State Wildcats	9	7	21	10
No. 5 seed Texas Longhorns	9	7	20	10
No. 6 seed Texas A&M Aggies	9	7	23	8
No. 7 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys	9	7	20	10
No. 8 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers	8	8	18	11
No. 9 seed Baylor Bears	5	11	17	13
No. 10 seed Iowa State Cyclones	4	12	15	16
No. 11 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders	3	13	13	18
No. 12 seed Colorado Buffaloes	1	15	9	21

It's Big 12 Tournament time! Let the games begin!

Big 12 Outlook will morph a bit this week. In this edition, I take a look at the overall predictive performance for the 2009 conference season and hand out my end-of-season awards. Later in the week, Outlook will project tournament outcomes based on current available information.

There will be a Big 12 Outlook posted every morning of the tournament, which I may or may not update throughout the day with game outcomes. It depends on how busy I am at work. However, I do hope the comments section on said entries will function as a live discussion for the BOTC community, much as our game threads do already.

	Seed	Record	RPI	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Streak	Best Win*	Worst Loss*	Coach
Kansas	1	14-2	8	10	10	W-1	Missouri	UMass	Bill Self
Oklahoma	2	13-3	4	18	8	W-1	Purdue	Arkansas	Jeff Capel
Missouri	3	12-4	11	11	12	L-1	Kansas	Nebraska	Mike Anderson
Kansas State	4	9-7	77	41	44	W-1	Missouri	Oregon	Frank Martin
Texas	5	9-7	36	27	26	L-1	UCLA	Arkansas	Rick Barnes
Texas A&M	6	9-7	29	45	41	W-6	Missouri	Baylor	Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State	7	9-7	26	32	32	L-1	Texas	Baylor	Travis Ford
Nebraska	8	8-8	69	61	70	W-2	Missouri	UMBC	Doc Sadler
Baylor	9	5-11	75	64	63	L-2	Arizona State	Iowa State	Scott Drew
Iowa State	10	4-12	160	115	113	W-1	Houston	SDSU	Greg McDermott
Texas Tech	11	3-13	129	95	101	L-1	Kansas	Lamar	Pat Knight
Colorado	12	1-15	233	180	202	L-11	Iowa State	Montana State	Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*According to Pomeroy rating

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook went out with a semi-whimper, going 4-2 on the final Saturday. Missouri's loss, although perhaps predictable with an "eyeball test," even prevented Outlook from correctly predicting the final seed order, as Texas A&M jumped Oklahoma State in the 9-7 tie mess, while Missouri fell back below the Oklahoma team they beat earlier in the week.

The other whiff was thanks to the ever-underachieving Baylor Bears, who I swear must be responsible for at least 5 of my 22 incorrect picks. I have some more thoughts on this in my awards, but Scott Drew did a bang-up job of wasting a lot of good talent this season.

By the way, who do you think will win the tournament? Be sure to scroll to the bottom of the page and vote in my poll. As for Outlook's opinion on the 1st round outcomes, you'll have to wait until Wednesday morning for those predictions. Today is more about looking back at where we've been more than where we're going.

All told, Outlook correctly predicted the outcomes of 74 of the 96 conference games this season, for about 77 percent accuracy. I thus award myself a C+ for the season; not too shabby for my first attempt at this. My goal for next year, though, is 80 percent or better.

Perhaps more impressive were the correct predictions of Kansas State as the No. 4 seed as far back as mid-February, of Oklahoma State's eventual 6-game winning streak as far back as early February and of Missouri's undefeated home season as far back as mid-January.

Final pick record: 74-22 (.771)

Postseason Awards: The Botcies

The Big 12 Conference awarded its postseason honors to players and coaches today, as well as selecting its 1st, 2nd and 3rd all-conference teams and honorable mentions.

Well, I have some disagreements with their selections, which I think are worth debating, as well as some original awards of my own to hand out. Read on to see the winners of the inaugural Botcies... (Get it? BOTCies?)

Player of the Year

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

Uh, like I'm going to argue with this? My only wish is that Michael Beasley had stuck around so Blake could have actually had some competition for the award.

Defensive Players of the Year

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

With all due respect to J.T. Tiller and very little due respect to Cole Aldrich, there was no more dominating presence in the paint this season than Blake Griffin. Not one week went by where I didn't drop my jaw at one of his blocks on ESPN's Gym Gems.

I don't really have anything against Tiller; I just don't like giving out co-awards very much because I think it's sort of a cop-out. As for Aldrich, honoring him ignores the fact that he got away with a ton of uncalled fouls in the process of accruing those defensive statistics, solely because his jersey said "Kansas." I refuse to ignore that fact.

J.T. Tiller (Missouri)

EDIT: All right, after some reflection, I decided to make this a co-award after all. What changed my mind? Well, I noticed Tiller was a unanimous selection to the all-defensive team. I figured if the 11 coaches not named Mike Anderson were that impressed with his defensive prowess, why shouldn't I be?

Newcomer of the Year

Denis Clemente (Kansas State)

Great pick by the Big 12. That said, it's not like there were a ton of options. Mario Little was really the only other transfer that was hyped coming into the season, and he didn't even come close to posting the sort of numbers or having the sort of impact Denis had.

I would just like to add that I predicted this award for Denis last summer. I felt like he would have even more of an impact than DeMarre Carroll did last season, and I was right. If you're into handicapping, my early favorite for Newcomer in 2009-10 is Curtis Kelly.

Freshman of the Year

Willie Warren (Oklahoma)

Also a solid pick. I don't know if he's one-and-done caliber, but there's no denying the kid was damned impressive.

Wally Judge will challenge for this award next season, Jayhawks. Better start getting used to the idea now...

Sixth Man of the Year

Matt Lawrence (Missouri)

Well, the Big 12 got this one half right. Matt Lawrence is probably the scariest spot-up shooter in the league not named Alan Voskuil, who I suppose is disqualified from this award since he is a starter. When I think of Lawrence, I think, "Thank God he's finally a senior!" Paul Velander should get an honorable mention, though.

But LaceDarius Dunn? Are you kidding me? I watched this kid very carefully after he lit us up in Manhattan for approximately 137 points, and let me tell you - it was a fluke. Dunn couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in any game I watched Baylor play after that, and the fact that he was the Bears' second-leading scorer and 3-point leader should tell you exactly why they finished 5-11. What a political pick. Hell, Fred Brown deserves this award more than Dunn.

The Darnell Jackson "Most Improved Senior" Overachievement Award

Darren Kent (Kansas State)

The first of my "original" Botcies, this award is named for Darnell Jackson, the Kansas player who didn't do very much until his senior year, when he was probably the best overall post player on a national championship team. No one other than Jayhawk fans saw that one coming.

There is no more deserving recipient of the inaugural Darnell Jackson Award than Darren Kent. When he signed his LOI, many Wildcat fans asked, "Who is this guy?" When Bob Huggins was hired, they were sure he would transfer. When he tried to dribble as a sophomore, they snickered. When he came in for Michael Beasley, they groaned.

Then came his senior year, and the awkward caterpillar metamorphosed into a graceful butterfly. He snagged rebounds, he shot jumpers, he banked off the glass, he played rugged defense, he broke his nose and played through the blood and the pain, he twisted his ankle and screamed at the trainers because they didn't get it re-taped fast enough so he could get back in and help his team win. Other than Denis Clemente, no player was more important to the Wildcats this season. White Tiger, you may never have your jersey retired, but know that you will still be missed.

The Aaron Bruce "Most Regressed Senior" Underachievement Award

Connor Atchley (Texas)

This award is named for the former Baylor guard who stunned the league as a freshman and basically got worse every season of his career. His senior year was by far his least productive, as he became something of an afterthought to younger, more athletic guards like Curtis Jerrells, Henry Dugat, Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn.

I don't normally like to dump on players, but the degree to which Connor Atchley's game went to crap this season is so striking it deserves comment. After last season, he looked like he was poised for a breakout alongside talented posts like Damion James and Dexter Pittman, but he instead spent most of the season missing dunks, blowing defensive assignments and being out-shined by Gary Johnson and Clint Chapman. At times, he was almost an active liability to his team. Frankly, these descriptions are nice compared to some of the things I have seen Texas fans call him.

The Joey Graham "Tough Son of a Bitch" Awards

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

I know the concussion didn't look like much, but did you see how this guy played when he came back against Texas Tech? Throughout the season he was tripped, punched in the nuts, whacked in the face multiple times and generally beat up every damn game, but he never complained and he gave as good as he got. What a warrior.

Darren Kent (Kansas State)

Dude played through a broken nose with no mask at Ames. Enough said.

Coach of the Year

Mike Anderson (Missouri)

Yeah, yeah, Self's a great coach, but it's not like he replaced all those starters with scrubs, people. Kansas is a program that reloads with top talent, and the Jayhawks returned one of the best guards and the only true center in the league. They were picked 3rd and they finished 1st by virtue of a concussion.

It's my opinion that Mike Anderson got screwed. It's a simple matter of numbers: Missouri was picked 7th and finished 3rd, and but for an upset loss Saturday would have finished 2nd. They were one of only two teams to beat the conference champion. Missouri is not a program that reloads with top talent, and Anderson deserves Coach of the Year for making them play like a program that does.

Honorable mention goes to Frank Martin, who could have earned it outright had he finished 10-6 again. That Baylor loss still sticks in my craw, though. K-State was picked 8th and finished tied for 4th, which ties Missouri for the most overachievement this season.

Most Underachieving Coach of the Year

Scott Drew (Baylor)

Baylor lost only Aaron Bruce (who, as I pointed out earlier, was playing so poorly as a senior that he wasn't much of a loss) and returned the entire rest of its team, while adding talented freshman Quincy Acy. The Bears were picked to tie Kansas for 3rd and they finished 9th. They lost to Iowa State and Texas Tech. They lost 10 of their last 12 games. They will be lucky to receive a bid to the NIT.

Considering there is apparently quite a lot of grumbling among the other 11 coaching staffs that Baylor is still playing fast and loose with the rules, despite being only five years removed from one of the worst scandals in sports history, you would think such shady tactics and so many talented and experienced guards would produce more than a 5-11 record. Coach Drew, congratulations on one of the worst coaching jobs I have seen in a long time. I hope John Wall and Latavious Williams answer your next phone call with raucous peals of laughter.

All-Big 12 First Team


Craig Brackins	DeMarre Carroll	Denis Clemente	Sherron Collins	Blake Griffin
Iowa State	Missouri	Kansas State	Kansas	Oklahoma

I put a lot of thought into this, and I think it's justified. First, I don't think any one team deserves two entries on this list, not even the champions. Second, I truly don't think Aldrich is that special, and in a normal year for bigs in the Big 12 he wouldn't have the kind of numbers he had this season. He's a good player, but not a great player. That screams 2nd team to me.

Denis Clemente tied the game-high for points set by Michael Beasley (44). He led his team in scoring. He made clutch shots all season long. Most of all, when the team was reeling, he put them on his back and became the leader they needed. The team took on his personality. It was simply electric to watch.

Thus, the top four seeds are represented by their best player, and Brackins, the best pure talent in the league not named Griffin, rounds out the 1st team. Please note that four of the five play in the North - more ammo for North defenders against the ignorant national media.

All-Big 12 Second Team


A.J. Abrams	Cole Aldrich	Byron Eaton	Damion James	Willie Warren
Texas	Kansas	Oklahoma State	Texas	Oklahoma

Aldrich switches places with Clemente, and Eaton replaces Anderson. I watched Oklahoma State a lot this year, and although Anderson was definitely their top scorer, Eaton is why that team won six of its last seven and is poised for an NCAA berth under a first-year coach. He saved his best for last, and frankly should have been an honorable mention for the Darnell Jackson Award.

All-Big 12 Third Team


James Anderson	Josh Carter	Ade Dagunduro	Cory Higgins	Leo Lyons
Oklahoma State	Texas A&M	Nebraska	Colorado	Missouri

I basically agree with the Big 12 when you get this low, except that I don't think Jerrells warrants any kind of consideration. No one on that crappy team does, frankly.

My honorable mentions would go to Ryan Anderson (Nebraska), Chinemelu Elonu (Texas A&M), Taylor Griffin (Oklahoma), Gary Johnson (Texas), Keiton Page (Oklahoma State), Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), J.T. Tiller (Missouri) and Alan Voskuil (Texas Tech).

All-Big 12 Defensive Team


Cole Aldrich	Blake Griffin	Terrel Harris	Dominique Sutton	J.T. Tiller
Kansas	Oklahoma	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Missouri

I will admit that Sutton is a bit of a homer pick, but he's a defensive specialist who has proven his worth many times over. As a freshman, he shut down Brandon Rush by himself. I was a little surprised he didn't even get an honorable mention. Mason and Roland being on there sort of struck me as a "you're not really good enough to even get honorable mention All-Big 12, so we'll give you this cookie instead" consolation prize.

P.S. I thought about Darren Kent, too, since he pretty much shut down Craig Brackins whenever he was assigned to him, which is not something I have seen many players do this year, but I've seen Darren have a few too many defensive breakdowns to go through with it.

All-Big 12 Freshman Team


Quincy Acy	Keiton Page	Jamar Samuels	Tyshawn Taylor	Willie Warren
Baylor	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Kansas	Oklahoma

I'm of the opinion that an All-Rookie team is weak. Clemente was already honored as Newcomer of the Year and 2nd Team by the Big 12, so he's covered. If Zaire Taylor wasn't good enough to be on the top three teams, why should he get a special spot here?

So, the Botcy policy will be to limit this team to true and redshirt freshmen. These are the future stars of the league, except maybe Warren, who may not be back next season.

Acy was the only Baylor player to truly impress me this season, so I included him to throw Baylor a bone after I have thoroughly dissed them in this entry up to this point. That said, it was a dead heat between him and Marcus Morris. Page is going to be a thorn in everyone's side for the next three years. Samuels - despite being unpolished, undersized, inexperienced and inconsistent - was K-State's 4th leading scorer, its blocks leader and one of its leading rebounders, as well as an instant energy guy off the bench. He will be a star player in the near future. Taylor was a pleasant surprise, and provided the Jayhawks the third scorer that Mario Little could never quite consistently be due to injuries.

Key

P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

Predicted Outcomes

01.10

3-2 (.600)

61 Tech
73 Baylor

67 I-State
75 Texas

61 Oklahoma
53 K-State

51 Missouri
56 Nebraska

61 A&M
72 O-State

01.12-01.14

4-1 (.800)

63 Texas
78 Oklahoma

71 K-State
87 Kansas

53 Nebraska
65 I-State

62 Colorado
107 Missouri

73 Baylor
84 A&M

01.17

6-0 (1.000)

92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)

73 Kansas
56 Colorado

46 I-State
77 Missouri

51 K-State
73 Nebraska

69 Oklahoma
63 A&M

71 Texas
49 Tech

01.19-01.21

3-2 (.600)

53 A&M
73 Kansas

55 Colorado
63 Tech

83 Baylor
65 K-State

97 Missouri
95 O-State

61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma

01.24

5-1 (.833)

77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)

82 Kansas
67 I-State

86 Tech
97 Missouri

76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)

76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma

58 A&M
67 Texas

01.26-01.28

3-3 (.500)

89 Oklahoma
81 O-State

78 Texas
72 Baylor

49 I-State
55 Colorado

72 Missouri
88 K-State

68 Kansas
62 Nebraska

70 Tech
79 A&M

01.31

4-2 (.667)

78 Oklahoma
68 I-State

85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)

61 Colorado
66 Kansas

72 Baylor
89 Missouri

82 Nebraska
69 Tech

64 O-State
76 A&M

02.02-02.04

4-2 (.667)

75 Kansas
65 Baylor

50 I-State
65 K-State

55 Nebraska
53 Colorado

69 Missouri
65 Texas

80 Tech
81 O-State

71 A&M
77 Oklahoma

02.07

4-2 (.667)

72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma

82 Missouri
68 I-State

65 K-State
60 A&M

67 O-State
78 Kansas

55 Texas
58 Nebraska

76 Baylor
83 Tech

02.09-02.11

5-0 (1.000)

60 Kansas
62 Missouri

74 O-State
99 Texas

78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor

42 Colorado
70 I-State

73 Tech
85 K-State

02.14

6-0 (1.000)

68 A&M
72 Baylor

85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)

67 I-State
86 O-State

85 Kansas
74 K-State

47 Nebraska
70 Missouri

74 Tech
95 Oklahoma

02.16-02.18

3-1 (.750)

66 Texas
81 A&M

55 I-State
72 Kansas

41 Colorado
46 Nebraska

92 O-State
82 Tech

02.21

6-0 (1.000)

66 Missouri
53 Colorado

50 K-State
46 I-State

53 Nebraska
70 Kansas

74 Baylor
84 O-State

79 A&M
73 Tech

68 Oklahoma
73 Texas

02.23-02.25

3-3 (.500)

87 Kansas
78 Oklahoma

62 Baylor
71 I-State

57 A&M
55 Nebraska

76 O-State
55 Colorado

74 K-State
94 Missouri

81 Tech
87 Texas

02.28-03.01

6-0 (1.000)

57 Colorado
75 Baylor

69 I-State
87 A&M

72 Nebraska
77 K-State

59 Texas
68 O-State

78 Oklahoma
63 Tech

65 Missouri
90 Kansas

03.02-03.04

5-1 (.833)

57 Baylor
73 Texas

71 K-State
77 O-State

72 A&M
66 Colorado

65 Kansas
84 Tech

64 Oklahoma
73 Missouri

61 I-State
77 Nebraska

03.07

4-2 (.667)

76 Tech
78 I-State

64 Colorado
76 K-State

73 Texas
83 Kansas

86 Missouri
96 A&M

66 Nebraska
62 Baylor

78 O-State
82 Oklahoma

Poll

Who do you think will win the 2009 Big 12 Tournament?

No. 1 Kansas

25 votes

No. 2 Oklahoma

38 votes

No. 3 Missouri

9 votes

No. 4 Kansas State

36 votes

No. 5 Texas

2 votes

No. 6 Texas A&M

1 votes

No. 7 Oklahoma State

0 votes

No. 8 Nebraska

2 votes

No. 9 Baylor

0 votes

No. 10 Iowa State

0 votes

No. 11 Texas Tech

0 votes

No. 12 Colorado

0 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

Big 12 Roundup: Big 12 Awards

rockchalk — Sun, 08 Mar 2009 23:12:04 -0000

Here we sit, at the end of the Big 12 season. It seems just like yesterday when Big 12 action tipped off, when Texas was a Top 10 team and Kansas and Missouri stood unranked.

Much has changed in the past two months, and there were some incredible games. Over the next couple of days, we'll be thoroughly summarizing the Big 12 season, while simultaneously previewing the Big 12 Tournament. But for now, we'll just name our All-Big 12 Selections, just as the Big 12 Media did earlier in the day.

So, let's get to those Big 12 Awards. Those are more fun, anyways.

We'll dish out most of the same categories the media does: First Team, Second Team, Third Team, All-Rookie Team, Newcomer of the Year, Rookie of the Year and the big one, Player of the Year...

Note: Number rankings is in order of where I'd rank them, which should provide quite a hint for the POY rankings.

First Team

Blake Griffin (F, Oklahoma) -- Obviously. This is as easy as it gets, folks.
Sherron Collins (G, Kansas) -- Emotional leader of the Conference Champions. Plus, for a three-week stretch in late February, he was as good of a guard as anyone in the country.
Craig Brackins (F, Iowa State) -- Best pure scorer in the conference. Overlooked nationwide, but everyone in the Big 12 knows exactly how good he is.
Cole Aldrich (C, Kansas) -- Averaging a double-double. 'Nuff said.
Demarre Carroll (F, Missouri) -- I wanted to go with someone else just to be different than the Media, but he deserves it.

All further Teams and Awards after the break...

Second Team

Damion James (F, Texas) -- Almost got in over Carroll on the First Team. His Durant-esque first half yesterday didn't hurt his case, but it was his offensive rebounding and overall importance that really got him here.
Cory Higgins (G, Colorado) -- Doesn't get the credit he deserves because he plays in the abyss of Boulder. Still, the dude can score on anybody, and will be the leader of any potential Colorado resurgence these next two seasons.
Denis Clemente (G, Kansas State) -- Has a rather large temper, and isn't always consistent, but damn, is he quick with the ball. Oh, and when he gets hot, he's virtually unguardable. Basically, he's like a slightly less-athletic Dogus Balbay, only he can hit the three. So, yeah, be afraid.
James Anderson (G, Oklahoma State) -- Incredible scorer, he probably should be slightly higher on the Second Team. If Sherron and Cole and Blake and Craig all leave school early, he could be the preseason favorite for Big 12 POY in Travis Ford's run-and-gun-type system.
Ade Dagunduro (F, Nebraska) -- A personal favorite of mine. The dude is probably my favorite player in college basketball. It's unreal how good he is, considering he was often the tallest player on the floor for the Huskers, standing only 6'6". I really wish he was only a junior, so he could play with actually tall people next year. In any case, incredibly underrated.

Third Team

Leo Lyons (F, Missouri) -- Dude isn't nearly as good as his frontcourt mate, Carroll, but still plenty talented. When, as RMN calls him, "Good Leo" shows up, he is one of the conference's best. But "Bad Leo" shows up far too often for him to be considered any higher.
Willie Warren (G, Oklahoma) -- Probably should be higher, and I kind of forgot about him, to be honest. The dude can score with the best of them.
LaceDarius Dunn (G, Baylor) -- Another personal favorite. Jerrells probably deserves it more, but I love LDD.
Curtis Jerrells (G, Baylor) -- Dude can penetrate into the lane with the best of them, but isn't consistent enough of a shooter to really scare you. He's a lot better than Dogus, though.
Dexter Pittman (C, Texas) -- Came on really strong at the end of the year, and while his overall season accomplishments probably don't deserve such an honor, but he was awesome yesterday. Pretty much, he destroyed Cole Aldrich. Dude has a really bright future, as long as he doesn't regain that weight back.

All-Newcomer/Rookie Team

Denis Clemente (G, Kansas State) -- See above.
Willie Warren (G, Oklahoma) -- See above.
Tyshawn Taylor (G, Kansas) -- Thank goodness he came to Kansas. He started off the year piping hot, and while he went through a two-month slump of sorts, he's come on late as the badly-needed third scorer behind Cole and Sherron. Dude has a special career in front of him, everybody.
Zaire Taylor (G, Missouri) -- Hit two game-winners in less than a week's time, in Austin and at home in their National Championship (Leo Lyons' words, not mine). Should be a mighty fine player next year, where he and Tiller will likely have to lead the team night-in, night-out.
Marcus Morris (F, Kansas) -- I love me some Marcus Morris, man. He's come on really strong, as of late, and is becoming an awesome rebounder.

And now, on to the Awards.

Player of the Year

Blake Griffin (F, Oklahoma)
Sherron Collins (G, Kansas)
Craig Brackins (F, Iowa State)

Newcomer of the Year

Denis Clemente (G, Kansas State)
Zaire Taylor (G, Missouri)
Mario Little (G/F, Kansas)

Freshman of the Year

Willie Warren (G, Oklahoma)
Tyshawn Taylor (G, Kansas)
Marcus Morris (F, Kansas)

Coach of the Year

Bill Self (Kansas)
Mike Anderson (Missouri)
Travis Ford (Oklahoma State)
Jeff Capel (Oklahoma)

That's all, for now. These being the hotly-contested decisiosn they are, I'm sure yours are something different. Feel free to chastize, criticize and complain, as long as you give your answer. If you think someone should be on the First Team, pick someone to actually come off the team. You can't just add more than 5 to a team. I don't roll like that.

As I said, this is just the kickoff to plenty of Big 12-related content as we quickly move towards the Big 12 Tournament, which begins Wednesday.

I can't wait.

Texas A&M 57, Nebraska 55: Post Game Overreaction

huskerlibrarian — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 04:52:55 -0000

Sometimes, I just feel like opening the window and screaming at the top of my lungs in frustration when I watch the Huskers play. It's one thing to go cold for long stretches. It's another to choke away a huge lead -- at home -- because they stop doing what got them ahead.

It happened earlier this year against Missouri, but the Tigers couldn't hit the shots down the stretch. A&M started drilling shots late in the game, and Nebraska -- which didn't commit a turnover until 11:00 to go in the second half -- had 8 turnovers in the last 11 minutes to give A&M 10 easy points.

What happened? Well, Ade Dagunduro came out with 5 quick points after halftime, then vanished. Steve Harley was hitting shots in the first half, then couldn't hit anything. Velander didn't get touches at all. Anderson was missing shots.

The biggest thing, though, was that the Huskers backed off the aggressive drive-and-shoot scheme they used for a number of easy shots in the first half run. Just like they do every time they get a lead. Seriously -- ATTACK THE BASKET!

A&M kept chipping away. NU would stop them 3 or 4 possessions in a row, but couldn't hit a shot to put it away. NU missed only 2 FTs all game. Unfortunately, one of them was Cookie's 1-and-1 attempt with 20 seconds to go.

The officiating was all over the place on both sides. A&M didn't get called for a number of horrible moving screens, but did get a questionable technical on a "chin-up" dunk. On the other hand, they also got the benefit of two horrible calls in the final minutes.

Then, of course, Josh Carter went and did what he seems to do best -- drain a 3 in the Devaney Center to beat the Huskers.

Report Card

Offense: F. The offense earns an "A" for the first half, but completely came unglued in the second. The Huskers backed off the aggressive drive offense in the second half, and died.

Defense: B. A+ for most of the game, but there were enough lapses late in the game to drag this down. Huskers stopped A&M seemingly every possession for most of the game.

Rebounding: D. This was an "B" in the first half, when the Huskers were only out-rebounded by 1. The Huskers kept A&M from getting second-chance shots until late, but the Aggies erupted for 11 offensive boards, mostly late in the game.

Ball Handling: B. Zero turnovers for 29 minutes is impressive. Eight in 11 is impressive in a different way. It makes it so much worse that every Husker turnover seemed to be incredibly costly.

Coaching: C. I have no idea what happened after halftime, but the team came out asleep, and that's on Doc. This team is used to being the underdog, but it needs to know how to play with a lead.

Overall: D. It's hard to believe that the first half and second half were from the same game. In the first half, Nebraska looked like the far, far better team. In the "third quarter," the teams looked fairly even. In the last 12 minutes, NU looked like a high school JV team. It doesn't frustrate me that NU loses games; it frustrates me that they should win these games and find a way to lose.

A KenPom Preview: Nebraska (Again)

rockchalk — Sat, 21 Feb 2009 08:32:41 -0000

Boom.

For the first time, we're going to get a repeat of a KP preview that was actually done well. It took me awhile to get into a groove of how to do it, but I found it right before the trip up to Lincoln. So, with it being as late as it is, I'm going to simply update the numbers, otherwise simply quoting the stuff. New Opening Thoughts, Background will deal with content since the last Kansas game, Offense and Defense will be virtually identical and the Players section will be a straight copy. Sorry, but that's just the facts. Homes.

Oh, here is that original KP Preview for Nebraska. And just for fun, here's the postgame recap.

Opening Thoughts

The final, just-get-through game before the Epic Showdown in Norman. And, that's all this game is about. Well, it's about impressing some big-time recruits, too. But, that's secondary. Just pick up a W. That's all we need. We nearly lost to the Huskers up in Lincoln, but we were able to expect. And that was with a Cole Aldrich zero-and-zero performance in the first half. Yikes.

So, really, this game is entirely about not screwing up. It's about hitting the wide-open jump shots, and limiting turnovers, and playing fine D. We don't have to do anything special to pick up our third straight win; just can't screw up too bad. Nebraska's a much better team than Iowa State, though, so we can't afford to go on five-minute stretches where we completely suck. If that's the case, we really could lose this game. It isn't out of the question; not by a longshot.

Plenty more (mostly copied) stuff after the jump...

The Background

Their slim-to-none chances of making the NCAA Tournament that existed when we travelled to Lincoln are now almost entirely non-existent. However, a win in Lawrence and they're back in the game. They've won four-of-five since we narrowly beat 'em, but their one loss was a 23-point beatdown at the hand of the Tigers, and two of the wins were against Colorado. So, it isn't like we're freaking the world out, or anything.

The Offense

Like I said, I'll mostly be just copying what I wrote the first time. A couple of switches have been made, but for the most part, we're sticking to the same stuff.

Four Factors

Effective FG% (97th) -- Not terrible, but actually worse than I expected. They have the reputation, at least from my point of view, of a shot-making team that plays tough defense. This isn't entirely true, though. Sure, they can knock down shots plenty fine, but it isn't necessarily their offensive strength.

Turnover % (48th) -- This does make sense. They don't turn the ball over, which is a must when you aren't overflowing with athletic ability and natural talent. They rank 5th in the Big 12 in this, so again, not spectacular, but better than most.

Offensive Rebounding % (338th) -- Yikes. This, this right here is where their complete lack of size comes in to play (we'll talk about that in a second). Without any bodies to compete for the boards, they are essentially left with only being able to pick up the long rebounds, or the ones that fortuitously bounce straight into their hands. This is both a good and bad thing, for us. On one hand, this would seem to indicate that we won't killed on the offensive glass. But if we still don't box out, and they do have an abnormally good day with the second chance points, then they are that much better on O, and we are that much more likely to lose.

FTA/FGA (102nd) -- This makes sense, I suppose. They have some slashers (Cookie Miller, Ade Dagunduro) letting them get to the line some, but most of the rest are three-point shooters, which limits their chances from the free throw line.

Other Random Tidbits
Really, there is only one 'random tidbit' worth mentioning about Nebraska's offense, and it's an obvious one; they like the 3. Not as much as Iowa State (36.5% of Nebraska's field goal attempts are threes, compared to 39% for the Cyclones), but they are more accurate from long range than the Clones. As a team, they shoot nearly 38% from three, which is ridiculous. So, yeah, just like last game, we have to keep an eye on the three-point arc.

So, just for some quick remarks on the already-written content. Their eFG% has freefalled, somewhat, dropping from 59th to 97th, now. But, more importantly, we need to talk about tempo. You see, the Cornhuskers are the 305th slowest team in all of Division 1, the slowest in the Big 12. This is general knowledge, basically, but whatever. So, we need to speed it up. They can't run with us.

The Defense

The Defense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (124th) -- Surprisingly, with how good of an overall defensive team the Cornhuskers are, they aren't very good at limiting shots. Not terrible, but you can make shots on them.

Turnover % (2nd) -- However, they will turn you over a helluva lot. I mean, only one team (Nichols State) turns you over on more possessions. That is ridiculous. Missouri has the reputation of being the hassling, turn-you-over defense, but Nebraska more accurately fits that description. Holy hell. We are going to have to be extra careful not to make careless mistakes; I'm not as worried about Sherron, but Tyshawn, and the Morris twins scare me. Especially Marcus and Markieff. I love 'em, and I'm more positive on them than most, but they are both good for at least a couple of freshmen mistakes a game.

Off. Reb % (77th) -- Again, nothing special, but they are good enough to get away. They will give up some bunnies occasionally, but usually do a pretty good job of keeping you off the boards, which is impressive given their lack of height (again, more on that later).

FTA/FGA (208th) -- See what I mean about the hacktastic, Missouri-like D? They will put you on the free throw line a bunch, so if you can hit the freebies, you should be in good shape. I'm telling you all, though, this should be the team we think about with that whole 40 Minutes of Hell nonsense. They are the team that turns you over non-stop, without being particularly averse to fouling.

Other Random Tidbits

Like I mentioned, this team's effective height (explanation and more here) is awful. In fact, according to the measurement, Nebraska is the shortest team in all of Division 1. No, seriously. For real. And as much as I love Doc Sadler as a coach, I pray that this is merely because he can't lure a talented big man to Lincoln, and not because he doesn't think it's necessary. You can get away with a lot of stuff without a big guy, but having Alexs Maric back there got them a lot of extra points and a lot of offensive rebounds and a lot of altered shots. Size is often overrated, but not to the point where you can throw out an entire team under 6'7" and expect to seriously compete. It's more correlated to defensive performance, so that's why it's here. In fact, the article states that the four things that effective height most correlates to are, in order: Block percentage, 2-pt FG% defense, eFG% defense and Adj. Defensive Efficiency. In other words, almost your entire non-3pt FG% defense is greatly affected by height. This makes sense. So, uh, Doc; you gettin' any height soon? This is why they have to be so dependent on getting turnovers; their height prevents them from being particularly good at anything else.

Given the lack of height, they are unsurprisingly bad at Block%. Shocking. However, also noteworty is that they force you to take a boatload of threes. Their average opponent shoots 38.9 threes a pop; a ridiculous number. They do this, naturally, by packing in the lane, making up for their lack of height in pure bodies. This is what they did to Oklahoma and Blake Griffin, and this is what they are going to do against us and Cole Aldrich.

Not a whole lot to add, here. Same old stuff.

Finally, the players. Here we go...

The Players

OK, this is the section that always takes way too long. So, I'm going to try and shorten it.

G Cookie Miller - He's known for being 5'7". However, he's more than that. He's their assists guy, the drive-and-kick-or-float-it-up player, and is also a really good defedner. Ed. note -- Also known for "acting like a punk"...

G Paul Velander - Long. Range. Bomber. Has taken 104 threes, and only 9 twos. He is damn good at it, too, shooting 47% from three. That's Mario Chalmers territory, folks. Brady, meet Paul. Paul, meet Brady. He's the one who'll keep you from hitting a meaningful three all game.

G Steve Harley - Harley sees more minutes than anyone else, and is the veteran presence on this team. He is short, as well, only 5'11", but he is a really good defender. He is never called for fouls (1.6 per 40 minutes), steals the ball plenty and never, ever turns the ball over on offense. He's their primary slasher, primarily twos, although he can shoot from three too.

G/F Sek Henry - Welcome to Nebraska, where at 6'3" you're the effective power forward. It doesn't matter much, as they play almost exclusively zone, but still. Sek has the highest eFG% on the team, can drain it from three, is another solid defender and has a frickin' amazing first name.

F Ade Dagunduro - Dagunduro, probably, is the best basketball player on the Huskers. He's a senior, which is disappointing for Cornhusker fans, but does everything right, pretty much. Draws a bunch of fouls, is a halfway decent shot-blocking presence, steals the ball a bunch, is their lone presence on the offensive glass. Everything.

G Ryan Anderson - Their other primary three-point shooter. He isn't nearly as good, though, so shoot away, Ryan. He is the best on the team as stealing the ball on Nebraska, and is the best, statistically, defensive rebounder on the team. Sees plenty of time; effectively the sixth starter.

G/F Toney McCray - The best shot-blocking presence on the team, and he seems to be the player destined to replace Dagunduro. Only a freshman, he is of the same build and all of that good stuff, and appears to be an awesome player. He's the next Ade; I'm telling you.

Again, not a whole lot to add. Just watch the hell out for Ade Dagunduro; he scares the shit out of me.

Finally, after all of that cutting-and-pasting, we get to the Keys. These are, naturally, likely going to be the differences between winning and losing. People.

The Keys

1) Speed it Up -- As we mentioned earlier, they like slowing the ball down. They don't want to deal with an up-and-down game. When we run, we're hard as hell to beat. It isn't that difficult to see what we should do. Not. At. All. Run, run, run.

2) Don't Turn it Over -- They turn you over a bunch. We turn it over a bunch. Yeah, not a good combination. Really, unless they just go crazy and make absolutely everything, we're going to win this game. Unless, we can't hold on to the ball and turn it over a bunch. If we give away that many possessions, with the already-low count, then we could be in for a painfully slow, low-scoring game. And the lower-scoring it is, the worse it is for us. Simple as that.

Run, run, run.

That's the key. Run, run, run.

If we can get out and run, we win. If not, we probably still pull off the victory, but it will be painstakingly more nerveracking.

Run.

Nebraska: Know Your Rival

Bill C. — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 18:00:11 -0000

Alright, now that I've done this preview thing once, I'm into it. Let's do it again!

And as with last time, all of these stats are based solely off of conference play.

vs Big 12
Nebraska: 5-4

	NU	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.57	1.53
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.01	0.99
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.26	1.31
2-PT FG%	44.6%	51.7%
3-PT FG%	37.7%	35.8%
FT%	69.2%	66.9%
True Shooting %	53.3%	55.9%

	NU	Opp
Assists	112	105
Steals	73	48
Turnovers	105	153
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.76	1.00

	NU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	103	91
Offensive Rebounds	71	85
Difference	-32	-6

This is a huge game for Nebraska. With a relatively unimpressive RPI, you figure they probably have to get to 10-6 to make the NCAA Tournament, meaning they have to win 5 of their final 7. They have three winnable home games against Colorado, ATM and Iowa State, but they'll need to snag at least one road game, probably two. Their remaining road slate? Mizzou, Kansas, Kansas State, and Baylor. Winning two of those probably means winning at Baylor and either MU or KSU. Expect their best effort.
Fortunately for Mizzou, it's going to be another sellout crowd, and we've seen in the last two home games just how much that crowd can get into Mizzou opponents' heads and wear them down along with Mizzou's pressure. In the last 5:30 against Baylor, Mizzou outscored the Bears 21-5. In the last 3:50 against KU, Mizzou outscored the Beakers 11-2.
To figure out how Mizzou lost to Nebraska the first time around, look no further than everybody's favorite new stat, BCI. I doubt anybody in the conference can touch Mizzou's 2.25 to 1.03 BCI ratio, but I'm pretty sure NU would be in the top 3 or 4. They use exactly the same formula as Mizzou to win games--steals, good passing, solid shooting accounting for iffy rebounding.
Really, the main reasons Mizzou is 8-2 and NU is 5-4 are a) NU allows a higher shooting %, and b) NU is worse at rebounding. That, and Mizzou's faster pace likely allows them to maximize their BCI advantage and get more points out of it.

Stats by StatSheet.com

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Ade Dagunduro (Sr)	15.41	0.59	14.2 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.2 SPG, 2.3 TOPG
Cookie Miller (So)	11.15	0.34	9.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.7 SPG, 2.3 TOPG
Ryan Anderson (Jr)	8.83	0.33	7.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.6 SPG
Steve Harley (Sr)	7.22	0.23	8.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.8 APG, 2.1 SPG
Sek Henry (Jr)	6.33	0.22	7.6 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.7 APG
Paul Velander (Sr)	4.85	0.20	6.8 PPG, 1.4 RPG
Toney McCray (Fr)	4.69	0.42	4.8 PPG, 2.3 RPG
Brandon Richardson (Fr)	3.52	0.31	4.4 PPG, 1.0 RPG
Cole Salomon (Jr)	2.13	0.27	1.3 PPG, 1.5 RPG
Chris Balham (Jr)	1.41	0.12	1.9 PPG, 2.4 RPG
Ben Nelson (Jr)	0.00	0.00	1 minute
Nick Krenk (Sr)	0.00	0.00	1 minute
Alonzo Edwards (Fr)	-0.50	-0.50	2 minutes

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

With basically five players averaging between 7 and 10 points per game, and another two averaging between 4 and 5, this is clearly a pretty balanced team. Ade Dagunduro, the 6'5 senior, is the star from the points perspective.
NU has one of the littlest backcourts you'll ever see. Their starting guards are 5'7, 165 (Miller) and 5'11, 180 (Harley). They are good at the ball control game, with both averaging better than a 2-to-1 BCI (Miller 2.19, Harley 2.50). Ryan Anderson (2.80) is also solid in the BCI category, but he's taller (6'4, 205), so who cares.
One thing to note: both Miller and Harley average over 30 minutes per game (with Sek Henry coming in at 29.2), so there will be some wear-down potential there.
This team basically has two shooters: Dagunduro (0.35 shots per minute) and Harley (0.31). Nobody else averages more than 0.23 shots per minute--it's clear the offense runs through them. Meanwhile, it's all about team rebounding for NU, as none of the major six players in the rotation average even 0.20 rebounds per minute (for perspective: DeMarre Carroll averages 0.32, Leo Lyons 0.24).

Keys to the Game

Why, BCI, of course! In Mizzou's trip to Lincoln ten games ago, NU put up a 1.18 BCI and Mizzou put up a 1.00. It's been made crystal clear by now that if Mizzou loses this battle, it's really hard for them to win the game.
Mizzou Arena. This sets up for another perfect "Mizzou pulls away down the stretch" situation, as a) NU's two main ball handlers average well over 30 MPG in conference play, b) MU surged in the second half in Lincoln, and c) Mizzou Arena has been amazing the last two games. Mizzou's going to need it, as their lack of natural scorers was a major problem in Lincoln. NU plays smart, tough defense and forces you to take shots out of your comfort zone (against Mizzou, anyway...their True Shooting % allowed certainly isn't very good). Mizzou has proven that it doesn't have much of a shooting comfort zone, so they're going to have to rely on pressure, tempo and home court to deliver the knockout blow.
Focus. Last time Mizzou beat KU at home, they proceeded to lose 9 of 10. That's not going to happen this time, as...well, this team is much, much better than that 2004-05 team. I feel like I'm insulting this team to even make that comparison. That said, while Mizzou deftly avoided a potential trap game last weekend in Ames, they'll need to make sure not to lapse against Nebraska. NU's not good enough to beat a Mizzou A-game, but they're crafty and resourceful (like their coach), and they'll take you out if you're not ready.

Prediction

Hold onto the ball, make some shots, don't give NU hope on the boards, lean on the home crowd (and Hustle & Flow) down the stretch, wear down the guards, win the game. Mizzou 77, Nebraska 65.

A KenPom Preview: Nebraska #1

rockchalk — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 04:27:57 -0000

OK, these KenPom previews are just too long. That's what I've decided. Far, far too long. So, instead, I'm going to keep all of the same categories and stuff; just shorten the hell out of them. Instead of rambling on about something for a pargaraph, like I'm prone to do, we'll bullet-point 'em, then go back and talk analysis later on. Hopefully, this works out better.

Opening Thoughts

In 2006, Kansas and Nebraska played twice, like every year, and again in the Conference Tournament. In the regular season, Kansas won at home by 42 points and in Lincoln by 21. The Big 12 Tournament game was only 14, but still. The next year, 2007, we beat them in Lincoln by 20, and then again by 53 in Lawrence. Then, last season, we beat them by 21, again, in Lincoln, and by 35 in Allen. Again, we faced them in the Big 12 Tournament, and again, it was much closer than in the regular season (10 points), but that's not important.

So, if you're keeping track, that's a list of the last 8 times Nebraska and Kansas haven faced each other in the sport called basketball. Kansas has won all eight games, by an average of 27 points. You take out the two Big 12 Tournament games, and the average margin of victory is 32 points. Of course, that is including the games in Allen Field House, and the games are clearly tougher up in Devaney. Or, more accurately, aren't as soul-crushing for the Huskers. Fine. Average margin of victory up in Lincoln is 20.66 points.

And yet, for some reason, I go in to every single Nebraska game up in Lincoln nervous as hell. I can't really explain it; there's no rhyme-or-reason. It's just, I always remember Nebraska being a tough place to play. Maybe it was that one game where Keith Langford had to hit that three (and our family car pulled over to the side of the road to listen to the end; we were road-trippin' somewhere, can't remember where, and we wanted to be able to listen to the last, intense seconds without the pressures of not getting into an accident, but yeah, the car got quite loud when Keith hit that shot), or maybe it was the year before, when we snuck away with that two-point victory and Drew Gooden wasted away the last few seconds by tossing the ball into the air (that's all I can remember about the game). Whicheve one it is, that memory of those orange-basketball-free-throw-lanes has always stuck with me; that's a dangerous place to play.

And despite that ridiculous average margin of victory, I still find myself nervous about the game tomorrow. Scared, even.

More thoughts, less-memory-related and more statistically relevant, after the jump...

The Background

Nebraska, this year's unit at least, is the reason for the creation of the NIT. Not really, but they just fit the profile perfectly. They have plenty of good players, solid depth, play really good D, hit the 3, have an awesome coach. But, they don't have enough talent, not enough all stars, don't play quite good enough D or don't hit quite as many 3's as necessary to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. It sucks, because the Cornhuskers are the team you love to root for (when they aren't playing your team, at least), but that's just life in competitive D-1 basketball. Suck it up.

Still, they are a dangerous team. They are definitely playing postseason ball this year, and it could be NCAA ball if not for a couple of bad losses. Honestly, if they would have found a way to beat UMBC at home, and to edge out Oregon State in Corvallis (two losses by a combined three points), they would be 14-4, with losses @ Arizona State, @ Iowa State, @ Oklahoma and vs. Oklahoma State. Not the best or resumes, and without any solid wins (best win is probably against Missouri, with Creighton being a Top 100 win as well, but that's it) they would assuredly be on the outskirts currently, but not within striking distance. I don't think the three points they couldn't score in those games, though, makes them any worse of a team, so we have to treat them as if they were a NCAA-type team. On the road. Put aside the ridiculous average margins of victories, and just focus on this current group. The best Nebraska team under Doc Sadler yet, easy.

The Offense

OK, here's how this will work. I am going to have two sub-headings to 'The Offense' and 'The Defense'; one for the Four Factors, or the four main keys to any team, and another on any other random things the team is particularly good at. You'll see what I mean as I get to them...

Four Factors - (For an explanation, click here)

Effective FG% [(FGM + 0.5*3PM)/FGA)] - 52.5% (59th) -- Not terrible, but actually worse than I expected. They have the reputation, at least from my point of view, of a shot-making team that plays tough defense. This isn't entirely true, though. Sure, they can knock down shots plenty fine, but it isn't necessarily their offensive strength.
Turnover % - 18.2% (42nd) -- This does make sense. They don't turn the ball over, which is a must when you aren't overflowing with athletic ability and natural talent. They rank 5th in the Big 12 in this, so again, not spectacular, but better than most.
Offensive Rebounding % - 24% (338th) -- Yikes. This, this right here is where their complete lack of size comes in to play (we'll talk about that in a second). Without any bodies to compete for the boards, they are essentially left with only being able to pick up the long rebounds, or the ones that fortuitously bounce straight into their hands. This is both a good and bad thing, for us. On one hand, this would seem to indicate that we won't killed on the offensive glass. But if we still don't box out, and they do have an abnormally good day with the second chance points, then they are that much better on O, and we are that much more likely to lose.
Free Throws Attempted / Field Goals Attempted - 38.5 (113th) -- This makes sense, I suppose. They have some slashers (Cookie Miller, Ade Dagunduro) letting them get to the line some, but most of the rest are three-point shooters, which limits their chances from the free throw line.

Other Random Tidbits

Really, there is only one 'random tidbit' worth mentioning about Nebraska's offense, and it's an obvious one; they like the 3. Not as much as Iowa State (36.5% of Nebraska's field goal attempts are threes, compared to 39% for the Cyclones), but they are more accurate from long range than the Clones. As a team, they shoot nearly 38% from three, which is ridiculous. So, yeah, just like last game, we have to keep an eye on the three-point arc.

The Defense

Four Factors

Effective FG% [(FGM + 0.5*3PM)/FGA)] - 47.4% (110th) -- Surprisingly, with how good of an overall defensive team the Cornhuskers are, they aren't very good at limiting shots. Not terrible, but you can make shots on them.
Turnover % - 27.7% (2nd) -- However, they will turn you over a helluva lot. I mean, only one team (Nichols State) turns you over on more possessions. That is ridiculous. Missouri has the reputation of being the hassling, turn-you-over defense, but Nebraska more accurately fits that description. Holy hell. We are going to have to be extra careful not to make careless mistakes; I'm not as worried about Sherron, but Tyshawn, and the Morris twins scare me. Especially Marcus and Markieff. I love 'em, and I'm more positive on them than most, but they are both good for at least a couple of freshmen mistakes a game.
Off. Reb % - 30.3% (73rd) -- Again, nothing special, but they are good enough to get away. They will give up some bunnies occasionally, but usually do a pretty good job of keeping you off the boards, which is impressive given their lack of height (again, more on that later).
Free Throws Attempted / Field Goals Attempted - 38.5 (216th) -- See what I mean about the hacktastic, Missouri-like D? They will put you on the free throw line a bunch, so if you can hit the freebies, you should be in good shape. I'm telling you all, though, this should be the team we think about with that whole 40 Minutes of Hell nonsense. They are the team that turns you over non-stop, without being particularly averse to fouling.

Other Random Tidbits

Like I mentioned, this team's effective height (explanation and more here) is awful. In fact, according to the measurement, Nebraska is the shortest team in all of Division 1. No, seriously. For real. And as much as I love Doc Sadler as a coach, I pray that this is merely because he can't lure a talented big man to Lincoln, and not because he doesn't think it's necessary. You can get away with a lot of stuff without a big guy, but having Alexs Maric back there got them a lot of extra points and a lot of offensive rebounds and a lot of altered shots. Size is often overrated, but not to the point where you can throw out an entire team under 6'7" and expect to seriously compete. It's more correlated to defensive performance, so that's why it's here. In fact, the article states that the four things that effective height most correlates to are, in order: Block percentage, 2-pt FG% defense, eFG% defense and Adj. Defensive Efficiency. In other words, almost your entire non-3pt FG% defense is greatly affected by height. This makes sense. So, uh, Doc; you gettin' any height soon? This is why they have to be so dependent on getting turnovers; their height prevents them from being particularly good at anything else.
Given the lack of height, they are unsurprisingly bad at Block%. Shocking. However, also noteworty is that they force you to take a boatload of threes. Their average opponent shoots 38.9 threes a pop; a ridiculous number. They do this, naturally, by packing in the lane, making up for their lack of height in pure bodies. This is what they did to Oklahoma and Blake Griffin, and this is what they are going to do against us and Cole Aldrich.

The Players

OK, this is the section that always takes way too long. So, I'm going to try and shorten it.

G Cookie Miller - He's known for being 5'7". However, he's more than that. He's their assists guy, the drive-and-kick-or-float-it-up player, and is also a really good defedner.

G Paul Velander - Long. Range. Bomber. Has taken 104 threes, and only 9 twos. He is damn good at it, too, shooting 47% from three. That's Mario Chalmers territory, folks. Brady, meet Paul. Paul, meet Brady. He's the one who'll keep you from hitting a meaningful three all game.

G Steve Harley - Harley sees more minutes than anyone else, and is the veteran presence on this team. He is short, as well, only 5'11", but he is a really good defender. He is never called for fouls (1.6 per 40 minutes), steals the ball plenty and never, ever turns the ball over on offense. He's their primary slasher, primarily twos, although he can shoot from three too.

G/F Sek Henry - Welcome to Nebraska, where at 6'3" you're the effective power forward. It doesn't matter much, as they play almost exclusively zone, but still. Sek has the highest eFG% on the team, can drain it from three, is another solid defender and has a frickin' amazing first name.

F Ade Dagunduro - Dagunduro, probably, is the best basketball player on the Huskers. He's a senior, which is disappointing for Cornhusker fans, but does everything right, pretty much. Draws a bunch of fouls, is a halfway decent shot-blocking presence, steals the ball a bunch, is their lone presence on the offensive glass. Everything.

G Ryan Anderson - Their other primary three-point shooter. He isn't nearly as good, though, so shoot away, Ryan. He is the best on the team as stealing the ball on Nebraska, and is the best, statistically, defensive rebounder on the team. Sees plenty of time; effectively the sixth starter.

G/F Toney McCray - The best shot-blocking presence on the team, and he seems to be the player destined to replace Dagunduro. Only a freshman, he is of the same build and all of that good stuff, and appears to be an awesome player. He's the next Ade; I'm telling you.

The Keys

Going back to the Keys; I didn't like the Gameplan.

For this game, there really are only two keys. And they both have a lot to do with that three-point line. Really, I don't want to oversimplify anything, but I think it all depends on the three.

Shut Down Velander and Company - Honestly, with Brady on Velander, I'm not too worried about him. Not to sound cocky, or anything, but put Brady on Michael Jordan, and I'm confident he could hold him under 20. Dude is just ridiculous. However, their entire team can drain the three, so we can't just say it's done and move on. Tyshawn and Tyrel and Sherron and even the bigs, like Mario, Marcus, Markieff and maybe even Quintrell, are going to have to stick their ass on their guys and not let them get open looks. If they get open threes, they're going to drain 'em. If they don't, their offense isn't the same unit, and will struggle to keep up with ours.
Make Open Threes - It is no secret as to what the Cornhuskers are going to do on defense; pack the hell in. It's ridiculous how many they leave in the lane, preventing any opportunity to pass it in to Cole and have him slam it home. Sure, he'll get his 16 and 12, or whatever, but that will mostly be on fast breaks and put backs. However, when they all crowd in on Cole, that leaves the three point line wide, wide open. Brady, Tyrel, Tyshawn, Sherron. I'm looking at all of you. I'm not worried about Sherron, he always makes his threes (or at least, so it seems), but the other three can sometimes be-hot-and-cold. Hell, even Mario will get some three attempts, probably. If we hit our open threes, we win the game. I promise. If not, well, we could be in a major dog fight.

There are other important things to remember, like not turning the ball over and forcing turnovers and all of that general stuff you always need to do, but the three-pointers are the key. Make 'em and contain 'em on D, we win. The opposite, we lose. Somewhere in between, and it'll be a fun game to watch, but we probably come out on top.

I'm pumped.

And, yeah, a little nervous. But, oh well. That's just what happens whenever we go up to Lincoln. It's inevitable. At least for me.

Husker Hoops 2008-09 Season Preview Day Two: The Players

huskerlibrarian — Fri, 17 Oct 2008 02:05:56 -0000

In the third season under Doc Sadler, Husker Basketball will once again be sporting a new look. Only one senior left the program, but that one player was Aleks Maric, the first All-Big XII selection for the Huskers in nearly a decade. Backup center Shang Ping (whose performance and playing time both steadily faded as the season went on) has transferred to a Division II school, and guard J.R. Strowbridge transferred closer to home.

The Huskers had hoped to add some impact players in the incoming class, but 6-11 German center Christopher Niemann was ruled ineligible for this season by the NCAA because his club team paid some of its players (but not him) beyond living expenses. 6-5 combo guard Roburt Sallie was denied eligibility by the Big XII because of an oversight when he first tried to come to NU in 2006, and he found himself a home with last year's national runner-up Memphis Grizzlies. A late big man was almost added with 7-foot Puerto Rican Jorge Diaz, but a computer glitch with his TOEFL prevented him from getting admitted for the fall (though he may find his way back in December).

That's not to say there aren't new faces. There's five, in fact. One true freshman -- former Indiana recruit, 6-4 guard Eshaunte "Bear" Jones, and four redshirts who Doc opted to sit out last year so that they could contribute long-term: 6-0 G Brandon Richardson, 6-7 F Alonzo Edwards, 6-6 G Toney McCray, and 6-9 F Alex Chapman (who is a sophomore, after 1 year of junior college ball). Each of them should contribute this year.

Returning players

Guards

If Nebraska is going to succeed this year, it will be based on the play of its guards. The Huskers don't have a lot of standout guards, but they are very, very deep.

Cookie Miller(6.1 ppg, 3.6 assists, 1.9 steals), a 5-7 sophomore, will likely return as the Huskers' starting point guard. Cookie was 6th in the Big XII in assists last year and 4th in steals, the highest marks by a freshman in either category (he is second in both amongst returning players). Cookie will need to improve on his shooting from last year, especially from beyond the arc, where he was 16-65 last season.

Ryan Anderson (8.4 ppg, 5.3 rebounds, 1.4 steals), a 6-4 junior, will likely be one of the shooting guards that start for the Huskers. A two-year starter, Anderson is one of the most complete defensive players on the team (10th in the conference in steals) and the most prolific 3-point shooter (136 attempts). Ryan has been forced to play power forward because of the Huskers' size problems, but has fared well defending larger players.

Steve Harley (9.1 ppg), a 5-11 senior, emerged in the latter part of the season as a consistent scoring threat, with his ability to drive to the basket and create off the dribble, after struggling early on. If he can continue to produce the way he did late in Big XII play, he should be a valuable tool for the Huskers. He was the most consistent shooter on the team besides Maric, making 40.8% of his 3-pointers.

Ade Dagunduro (8.9 ppg, 3.6 rebounds), a 6-5 senior, was another solid contributor from last year's team, and one of the better defensive stoppers on the team. Ade had a tendency to foul in bunches last year, and led the team in violations. Besides Maric, Ade was the best 2-point shooter on the team.

Paul Velander (4.2 ppg, .818 FT%), a 6-2 senior walk-on, has been the Huskers' most consistent 3-point shooter over the last three years, although his playing time has diminished as other guards have joined the team. He will likely continue to see time as a shooter coming off the bench.

Sek Henry (5.9 ppg, 3.5 rebounds), a 6-3 junior, is looking to be one of the most improved players this year, if his summer league performance is anything to judge by. Sek has always been a hard worker, and hit several clutch shots down the stretch. If he can develop some consistency, he has a chance to earn a lot of playing time.

Forwards

Chris Balham (2.5 ppg, 1.5 rpg), a 6-8 junior, has incredible athletic ability, but injuries and bizarre numbness in his legs have limited his playing time and effectiveness in his two years in Lincoln. Balham figures to be the starting center so long as his legs hold up. He has been effective in limited action, but only time will tell if he can put in extended minutes.

Newcomers

Eshaunte "Bear" Jones (Hargrove (Va.) Military Academy) -- Bear averaged 16 ppg and 10 rebounds at prep school, and an astonishing 28 ppg as a senior in high school. Said Doc on Jones: “The one thing he can do is score, and you can never have too many of those guys.”

Alex Chapman (Sheridan (Wyo.) College) -- Alex averaged 9.8 ppg and 6.8 rebounds in his one season of junior college. He has suffered some knee injuries, and will miss the beginning of practice following surgery.

Toney McCray (Ft. Bend (Tex.) Elkins) -- Toney averaged 16 points, 6 boards, and 2.5 assists a game as a senior in high school, and looks to be a solid swing player, though he'll likely play some forward for the undersized Huskers. Said Doc on McCray: "[H]e’s probably the most talented kid we’ve got on our team. … If he gets some of Brandon [Richardson]’s toughness, Toney McCray could be great.”

Brandon Richardson (Hawthorne (Los Angeles, CA) HS) -- A first-team All-California and a Nike All-American, Brandon averaged over 20 points and 7 rebounds as a senior. Says Doc on Richardson: “Brandon Richardson is probably as competitive and mentally tough a player as anybody I’ve ever coached. He may not always make the play, but I can promise you you’re going to leaving knowing he gave everything he had.”

Alonzo Edwards (Klein Forest (Houston, TX) HS) -- A power forward prospect who averaged 16 points and 10 boards as a high school senior, Alonzo will likely give the Huskers some depth in the post. He may not be playing up to his potential yet, and his emergence will be key for the Huskers.

Six walk-ons are also on the roster for the Huskers, but will probably not see extended playing time: Nick Krenk (6-0 Sr G), Matt Karn (6-3 Jr G), Ross Ferrarini (6-2 Fr G), Andrew Wicklund (6-5 So G), Ben Nelson (6-8 Jr F), and Cole Salomon (6-4 Jr G).

SB Nation - Ade Dagunduro

NIT Preview: #6 Nebraska at #3 New Mexico

BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.09.09 (Postseason Awards Edition)

Big Twelve Conference Standings

Self-Evaluation

Postseason Awards: The Botcies

Player of the Year

Defensive Players of the Year

Newcomer of the Year

Freshman of the Year

Sixth Man of the Year

The Darnell Jackson "Most Improved Senior" Overachievement Award

The Aaron Bruce "Most Regressed Senior" Underachievement Award

The Joey Graham "Tough Son of a Bitch" Awards

Coach of the Year

Most Underachieving Coach of the Year

All-Big 12 First Team

All-Big 12 Second Team

All-Big 12 Third Team

All-Big 12 Defensive Team

All-Big 12 Freshman Team

Key

Predicted Outcomes

Who do you think will win the 2009 Big 12 Tournament?

No. 1 Kansas

No. 2 Oklahoma

No. 3 Missouri

No. 4 Kansas State

No. 5 Texas

No. 6 Texas A&M

No. 7 Oklahoma State

No. 8 Nebraska

No. 9 Baylor

No. 10 Iowa State

No. 11 Texas Tech

No. 12 Colorado

Big 12 Roundup: Big 12 Awards

First Team

Second Team

Third Team

All-Newcomer/Rookie Team

Player of the Year

Newcomer of the Year

Freshman of the Year

Coach of the Year

Texas A&M 57, Nebraska 55: Post Game Overreaction

A KenPom Preview: Nebraska (Again)

Opening Thoughts

The Background

The Offense

The Defense

The Defense

The Players

The Keys

Nebraska: Know Your Rival

vs Big 12Nebraska: 5-4

Keys to the Game

Prediction

A KenPom Preview: Nebraska #1

Opening Thoughts

The Background

The Offense

The Defense

The Players

The Keys

Husker Hoops 2008-09 Season Preview Day Two: The Players

vs Big 12
Nebraska: 5-4