SB Nation - A.J. Abrams

Re-examining the 2008-9 Losses...

txtwstr7 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:48:32 -0000

...since losses is plural, then you've probably already realized that this post will be about basketball. Last season, Texas went 23-12, which was their most losses since the 2001-2 season, when the team went 22-12. In fact, over Rick Barnes' eleven year career at Texas, the Longhorns have never lost more than 13 games in a season. By and large, last year's team was written off as a disappointment, especially considering the lofty preseason rankings and expectations.

After the jump, we take a closer look at the relative tightness of each of the Longhorns 12 losses last season, which includes some surprising numbers. More importantly, we look at the contributions of the two departing seniors in each of the "close" games from last season.

First off, I still dont have any news over the Stampede passes. It boggles my mind that we are 2.5 weeks away from the season, and the e-mail still hasnt gone out. I could--and perhaps should--write an entire column about the complete, utter, and entire lack of hype generated over this basketball season around campus. I really dont get it...

Second, I'm not going to analyze the contributions of Harrison Smith, since, well...it was Harrison Smith. With that in mind, let's get to work...

Due to a combination of factors--including poor shooting, decent defense, and occasionally miserable sets--Texas had the frustrating tendency to play up or down to its competition last season. This is reflected by looking at each of the twelve losses and close victories from last season. Here are the "high points" of each loss, which reflect the closest point at the latest portion of the game. I think you might be surprised by the closeness of some of the losses.

1) Notre Dame: Down 81-80 when time expired.

2) Michigan State: Down 65-63 with one second left

3) Arkansas: Down 65-62 with seven seconds left

4) OU: Down 54-50 with 10:00 to go-then got absolutely steamrolled

5) Kansas State: Down 83-81 with seven seconds left in OT

6) Missouri: Tied 65-65 with six seconds left

7) Nebraska: Down 58-55 when time expired

8) A&M: Down 71-64 with 2:15 left-then got absolutely steamrolled

9) OSU: Down 60-57 with 1:25 left

10) KU: Down 73-71 with 3:30 left-then got absolutely steamrolled

11) Baylor: Down 72-70 with 15 seconds left

12) Duke : Down 72-69 with 7 seconds left

If you take out the outliers against OU/A&M/KU, which were actually closer than I remembered, the tightness of Texas' other nine losses becomes crystal clear:

1) Notre Dame: Down 81-80 when time expired.

2) Michigan State: Down 65-63 with one second left

3) Arkansas: Down 65-62 with seven seconds left

4) Kansas State: Down 83-81 with seven seconds left in OT

5) Missouri: Tied 65-65 with six seconds left

6) Nebraska: Down 58-55 when time expired

7) OSU: Down 60-57 with 1:25 left

8) Baylor: Down 72-70 with 15 seconds left

9) Duke: Down 72-69 with 7 seconds left

Essentially:

1) In each of these nine losses, Texas was within three points of their opponent with less than 1:30 to go.

2) In eight of these nine losses, Texas was within three points with less than sixteen seconds to go.

3) In seven of these nine losses, Texas was within three points with less than ten seconds to go.

I can already hear everyone explaining how this doesn’t take into account how many close games Texas WON last season, so I've also compiled a list of those wins as well. To be generous, I included every victory in which a UT opponent got within six points in the last two minutes of the game. This list is actually a little bit longer than I remembered:

1) UCLA: Up 65-61 with 2:00 left-UCLA doesn't score again

2) Wisconsin: Up 70-69 with 30 seconds left-Wisconsin doesn't score again

3) Baylor: Up 74-72 with 49 seconds left-Baylor doesn't score again

4) Colorado: UT wins 85-76 in OT

5) OU: Up 69-68 with 20 seconds left -OU doesn't score again

6) Tech: Up 85-81 with 30 seconds left-Tech doesn't score again

7) KSU: Up 61-58 when time expired

None of Texas’ other 16 wins broke this threshold, and the UCLA and Tech games barely made it. If we used tighter criteria, then Texas had only four victories—out of 23—where their opponents were within three points in the final 30 seconds.

However, the main point of this post isn’t to magnify how Texas could or should have won more games last season. Instead, I wanted to analyze the performances of AJ Abrams and Connor Atchley in each of our losses and "close" victories in order to see if they played a major factor in the outcome.

Let's go to a chart of all the losses and close wins:

Opponent	AJ Abrams	Connor Atchley
Notre Dame (L)	23 points (8/27 shooting)	7 points and 7 rebounds
Michigan State (L)	*8 points (3/10 shooting)*	8 points and 5 rebounds
Arkansas (L)	7 points (3/16 shooting)	DNP
OU (L)	*22 points (8/27 shooting)*	4 points and 4 rebounds
Kansas State (L)	15 points (5-21 shooting)	1 point and 3 rebounds
Mizzou (L)	11 points (4-9 shooting)	2 points and 5 rebounds
Nebraska (L)	16 points (6/15 shooting)	3 points and 3 rebounds
A&M (L)	*7 points (3/12 shooting)*	*3 points and 1 rebound*
OSU (L)	*9 points (3/15 shooting)*	*0 points and 5 rebounds*
Kansas (L)	*10 points (2/11 shooting)*	*2 points and 2 rebounds*
Baylor (L)	20 points (8/17 shooting)	5 points and 3 rebounds
Duke (L)	17 points (5/13 shooting)	0 points and 1 rebound
UCLA (W)	31 points (9/18 shooting)	6 points and 4 rebounds
Wisconsin (W)	21 points (8/21 shooting)	7 points and 2 rebounds
Baylor (W)	19 points (7/12 shooting)	4 points and 2 rebounds
Colorado (W)	29 points (11/19 shooting)	2 points and 3 rebounds
OU (W)	23 points (8/17 shooting)	5 points and 2 rebounds
Tech (W)	24 points (6/13 shooting)	5 points and 2 rebounds
Kansas State (W)	6 points (2/4 shooting)	0 points and 1 rebound

While this simplistic chart doesnt take into account other factors such as defense and passing, I think it points out a few interesting things.

1) In many of its seven close wins last season, Texas rode the backs of its two seniors on the offensive end. With the exception of the KSU and Baylor games, Abrams and Atchley combined to score at least 28 points in each of the other five victories. And, in the Baylor game, they combined to score a third of our points.

2) Conversely, in many of the close losses, a lot of the blame can be squarely pointed at AJ Abrams. In our twelve losses, AJ was a disaster in eight of them. I dont think this breaks a ton of new ground, but it shows that AJ didnt "keep us in" a lot of the games we lost last season. In fact, you can only make the case that he helped keep it close for only 3 (NU, BU, Duke) of our 12 losses last season.

3) Ultimately, I think it is very interesting that Abrams' performance--good or bad--directly correlated to the outcome in 14 of the 19 games reflected in the chart. While we've already shown that he didnt help "keep it close" in most of our losses, the converse point is that the team also struggled to win close games when he was playing poorly. In fact, the only close victory following a poor performance by Abrams was the game in the Big 12 Tournament against Kansas State.

Conclusion: I think fans have forgotten the tightness of most of our losses last season and the centrality of the role of AJ Abrams in the outcome of many games. The most important thing that I gleaned from re-examining last season was how close Texas was to becoming an elite team. It's amazing that, in 10 of their 12 losses, Texas was within three points of their opponent coming out of the last TV timeout. The 23-12 record could have easily flipped to 26-9 (or better) if J'Covan Brown would have made it to campus. The roster this season will have no such shortage of shooters. However, any mention of the wouldacouldashoulda games from last season must also acknowledge that AJ Abrams was the reason we won several of our close games.

Hook 'Em!

KNOW THY ENEMY: Texas A&M Aggies

BracketCat — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 00:30:13 -0000

This week's preview probably is one of the more distasteful I will compose, perhaps only to be topped by the one for the Flaw on the Kaw. When it comes to Aggie basketball, the word "enemy" well and truly applies.

I don't know if it's because of Mark Turgeon, the Kellis Robinett of basketball coaches, or Billy Clyde Gillispie, angry drunk that he is, but something about Texas A&M actually being halfway decent in basketball just pisses me off. I don't know — maybe it's just the grudge I've been holding against the 12th Man since December 1998.

At any rate, I'm still basking in the afterglow of the absolute pwning administered to the Aggies on Saturday, so I'll strive to be as magnanimous as possible in this preview. If you're looking for more information, feel free to hop over to I Am The 12th Man, where basketball season almost certainly is under way. Anything to distract from a likely 0-3 start, right?

Otherwise, click the jump for all you need to know about Ags-ketball.

The Coach

Mark Turgeon
Third Season

49-21 (17-15) at Texas A&M
202-140 (103-89) overall

Turgeon has a 49-21 record at A&M, the most wins by a Big 12 coach in his first two seasons at a league school. He is only the second coach ever to lead the Aggies to consecutive NCAA Tournaments and has led his teams to five 20-win seasons in the last six years.

Last season, the Aggies went 24-10 and advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight year.

Turgeon led the Aggies to a 25-11 record in his first season, the third-most wins in school history. The Aggies lost in the final seconds to top-seeded UCLA in the second round of the NCAAs.

The Departures

Starters

Josh Carter (30.6 minutes per game, 13.8 points per game, 4.3 rebounds per game)
Chinemelu Elonu (23.8 minutes per game, 9.8 points per game, 7.3 rebounds per game)

Reserves

Denzel Bowles (5.4 minutes per game, 2.4 points per game, 1.2 rebounds per game)
Bryson Graham (2 minutes per game, 0.8 point per game, 0.3 rebound per game)

The Veterans

		#0 Bryan Davis Senior Forward 6-9 \| 250 Dallas, Texas Big 12 All-Reserve Team (2009) The Aggies are 27-7 when Davis scores in double figures in his career. He averaged 16.5 points, nine rebounds and three blocks in two NCAA Tournament games, earning CBS Sports player of the game honors in both contests. Davis scored a season-high 21 points with nine rebounds and three blocks in a first-round win against BYU. He scored 12 points with a game-high 10 rebounds in a win against Missouri. Davis scored 15 points with eight rebounds in a win against Texas, and just missed double-doubles at No. 2 Oklahoma (13 points, nine rebounds), at Baylor (13 points, nine rebounds) and at Colorado (nine points and nine rebounds). He matched his season high with 18 points in a win against Oklahoma State, making 6 of 6 from the free-throw line. Davis had 13 points and eight rebounds in a win against Texas Tech; scored a season-high 18 points with 10 rebounds in a win at Rice; had 17 points against Baylor and 16 points against LSU; came off the bench to score 15 points with a season-high 13 rebounds against Kent State, earning SPI Invitational all-tournament honors; returned to the starting lineup against Arizona and had 10 points, making 5 of 6 from the field; scored 15 points with nine rebounds in a win at Alabama; had 11 rebounds vs. SMU; had at least five rebounds in all but four games; ranked third on the team in scoring (10.8), and second in rebounding (6.5) and blocks (46); ranked fifth in the Big 12 in blocks and ninth in rebounding; ranked fourth in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding (2.9) in league play; scored 14 points with seven rebounds against Jackson State and tied his career best with four blocks; and ranks seventh in school history with 96 career blocks.

		#2 Derrek Lewis Junior Guard 6-5 \| 195 Tulsa, Okla. Lewis appeared in five games, averaging 0.6 point per game. He scored a season-high two points against UNC Wilmington, played a season-best five minutes against Jackson State, and also saw action against BYU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

		#3 Derrick Roland Senior Guard 6-4 \| 190 Dallas, Texas Big 12 All-Defense Team (2009) Roland scored 10 points in a first-round NCAA Tournament win against BYU, making a pair of three-pointers. He was named to Big 12 All-Defense Team by league coaches and media panel, and usually guarded the opponent's top scoring guard and in Big 12 play held all but two under his scoring average. League players he guarded made just 38 percent from the field and 32 percent from 3-point range. Roland helped limit Arizona All-American Chase Budinger to just three points on 1 of 6 shooting in the second half of A&M's come-from-behind win. Texas' A.J. Abrams averaged just eight points (6 of 22 shooting, 1 of 9 3-pointers) in two games against Roland. Roland scored 11 points in the first win against Texas Tech and held John Roberson to four second-half points (2 of 10 from field, 0 of 5 3-pointers). Oklahoma State's James Anderson averaged just 9.5 points in two games against Roland. Roland matched his season best with 13 points in a loss at Baylor, scoring 11 in the second half to rally the Aggies from a 14-point deficit. He scored 12 points with four assists in a win at Colorado (8-8 FT); made 25 of his last 29 free throw attempts; played just 10 minutes against McNeese State, after leaving the game early with a bruised elbow, and did not play against North Dakota; scored six points with a season-high six rebounds against Arizona; missed the Kent State game after suffering a sprained foot against Tulsa; and averaged 8.5 points in the last six games. The Aggies are 11-2 in his career when he scores in double figures, and 8-1 on the season.

		#5 Dash Harris Sophomore Guard 6-1 \| 175 Los Angeles, Calif. Harris played in all 34 games and earned a start against Kent State. He ranked second on the team in assists (2.0) and was third in steals (0.7); scored a career-high seven points with three assists against Connecticut in the NCAA Tournament; had six points and made 2 of 2 from 3-point range against Iowa State, his first career 3-pointers; had a monster dunk and made a free throw to complete a key 3-point play and spark a comeback win at Nebraska; scored six points with three assists and two steals in a big win against Missouri; dished out a career-high five assists in consecutive games against Rice and McNeese State; matched his career best with five assists in wins against Texas (zero turnovers) and Texas Tech; scored a career-high six points with four assists and a career-best three steals against North Dakota; handed out at least four assists in seven games; and scored four points against Tulsa. The Aggies were 9-1 when he had at least three assists, with the only loss being to UConn.

		#10 David Loubeau Sophomore Forward 6-8 \| 230 Miami, Fla. Loubeau scored 11 points, making 5 of 5 from the field, against Connecticut in the second round of NCAA Tournament; ranked third on the team in offensive rebounds (58); ranked second among Big 12 freshmen in offensive rebounds in league play (1.9); scored eight points in a win against Missouri; had nine points, all in the second half, with six rebounds in a narrow loss at No. 2 Oklahoma; scored 11 points with eight rebounds in a win against Texas Tech; had 10 points, all in the first half, in a win against Oklahoma State; scored a career-high 12 points with eight rebounds against Kent State in his first career start; also started against Iowa State; had seven points with five rebounds at Kansas, including a game-high four offensive boards; scored six points with a career-best nine rebounds against Tulsa; had eight points at Alabama, helping the Aggies rally from 14-point deficit; scored eight points with eight rebounds against SMU; had eight points and six rebounds against Jackson State, making 6 of 8 from the free-throw line; and tallied six points with six boards against UNC Wilmington. The Aggies were 7-2 when he scored at least eight points, losing only at Oklahoma and to UConn.

		#11 B.J. Holmes Junior Guard 5-11 \| 175 Houston, Texas Big 12 All-Reserve Team (2009) In Big 12 play, Holmes led the league in 3-point percentage (.470) and ranked second in free-throw percentage (.860). He ranked among the top bench players in the Big 12 with an 9.1 scoring average in conference play; had 10 points in a first-round NCAA Tournament win against BYU; scored 11 points (3 of 3 treys) in a win against Texas; scored 10 of his 16 points in the last six minutes in a comeback win at Colorado; had 13 points in a win vs. Missouri; had a career-high 24 points in the first win against Texas Tech, making 6 of 7 (.857) from 3-point range, the fourth-best percentage in school history; made six straight 3s against Tech, tying a Big 12 record; scored 19 points at Oklahoma State, making 4 of 9 3-pointers and 7 of 7 free throws; earned his first career start against Arizona and had a team-high 14 points (3 of 6 3-pointers); made a pair of key free throws in the final minute of the Arizona game and also drew a charge that fouled out Wildcat point guard Nic Wise late in game; scored 16 points with a career-best seven rebounds in a win at Alabama and made a rainbow 3-pointer with two seconds left to send the game to overtime; scored 15 points against Kent State, making 3 of 6 3-pointers and dropping a pair of free throws in the final seconds that helped ice the game; started in place of the injured Derrick Roland against North Dakota and scored 14 points (4-8 3-pointers); missed his first 12 shots of the season; led the team in steals (30); and had only 18 turnovers in 757 minutes (one every 42.1 minutes).

		#14 Andrew Darko Junior Guard 6-1 \| 175 Conroe, Texas Darko appeared in nine games, including three Big 12 games and an NCAA Tournament game against BYU. He scored two points against Jackson State and at Kansas.

		#15 Donald Sloan Senior Guard 6-3 \| 205 Dallas, Texas The Aggies are 39-8 in Sloan's career when he hands out at least three assists, including a 16-3 mark as a junior, and the team is 33-13 when he scores in double figures. He averaged 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists in two NCAA Tournament games; scored 14 points with six rebounds and a season-high seven assists in a first-round win vs. BYU; added 12 points in the second round against Connecticut; had a career-high 22 points against Texas Tech in Big 12 Tournament; scored a team-high 16 points in a win against Missouri; averaged 15.6 points in the last five games; had 14 points and five assists with only one turnover, scoring seven points in the final four minutes of a comeback win at Colorado; had 14 points in a win against Texas; scored 17 points (3 of 4 3-pointers) in a loss at Texas; had 15 points in a win against Oklahoma State; tied his career high with 21 points against Florida A&M, making 10 of 10 free throws; ranked second on the team in scoring (11.8) and led in assists (3.2); scored at least eight points in all but three games; had 13 points and five assists with only one turnover in 35 minutes against Arizona; handed out a season-high seven assists against Kent State with only one turnover; had 16 points with three assists and six rebounds against Stephen F. Austin; made .743 (107-144) from the free-throw line; and had only 56 turnovers in 1,030 minutes this season (one every 18.4 minutes), a marked improvement over his sophomore season, when he averaged one turnover every 13.3 minutes.

		#24 Shawn Schepel Junior Guard 6-3 \| 205 Dallas, Texas Schepel played in six games, including two Big 12 games and an NCAA Tournament game against BYU. He scored one point against Jackson State.

		#31 Chris Chapman Senior Guard 5-11 \| 175 Houston, Texas Chapman appeared in three games, including the Iowa State game in Big 12 play. He scored two points with one rebound against Jackson State.

		#33 Marshall Carrell Junior Forward 6-9 \| 230 Paris, Texas Carrell appeared in four games, including an NCAA Tournament game against BYU. He pulled down two rebounds against Jackson State.

		#45 Nathan Walkup Junior Forward 6-7 \| 210 Houston, Texas Walkup played in all 34 games, starting against UNC Wilmington and Iowa State. He averaged 14 minutes in two NCAA Tournament games; scored a career-high 12 points (3 of 4 3-pointers) in a win against Missouri; had eight points (2 of 2 3-pointers) against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament; had seven points, making 3 of 3 from the field (including a key second-half 3-pointer) in a win against Texas; also added seven points in a win at Nebraska and had a breakaway dunk that helped spark a comeback; scored six points with three rebounds in just 11 minutes in a narrow loss at No. 2 Oklahoma, including a breakaway dunk; made a game-winning 3-pointer with 20 seconds left against Arizona, his only points of the game; scored seven points in a win at Alabama and made a 3-pointer with 14 seconds left to pull the Aggies within two points, before teammate B.J. Holmes sent the game into overtime with two seconds left; scored a season-high nine points with a career-best 12 rebounds against UNC Wilmington; averaged 3.5 points and 2.5 rebounds; scored seven points with 11 rebounds against Stephen F. Austin and made a key long-range 3-pointer as the shot clock expired in the final minute; scored eight points against Jackson State; and made a 3-pointer with 7:32 left to give A&M a six-point lead at Rice, and it never was a one-possession game again. The Aggies are 14-2 in his career when he scores at least five points.

The Redshirt

#12 James Blasczyk
Freshman Center
7-0 | 230
Houston, Texas

Blasczyk was named his high school district's defensive player of the year in 2008. He averaged 14.6 points and 9.7 rebounds as a senior; was rated among the top 50 prospects in the state by TexasHoops.com; averaged 8.3 points, 7.1 rebounds and 4.1 blocks as a junior; earned three varsity letters; scored a career-best 27 points with a career-high 17 rebounds against the Dallas Mustangs in 2007 as a member of Houston Select, one the top AAU programs in the nation; and played for Houston Swoosh in 2008.

The Newcomers

		#21 Ray Turner Freshman Forward 6-8 \| 220 Houston, Texas Turner was ranked No. 144 nationally and No. 6 in Texas by Rivals.com; averaged 16.5 points and earned district MVP honors as a senior; was named to all-state and all-region teams; played in the THSCA All-Star Game; led his team to a 29-7 record and a district title; posted career game-highs of 35 points, 25 rebounds and 12 blocks; averaged 16 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.5 blocks as a junior; and also was recruited by Baylor, Marquette, Memphis, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico and Oklahoma State.

		#22 Khris Middleton Freshman Forward 6-7 \| 215 North Charleston, S.C. Middleton was rated No. 64 by ESPN.com, which also ranked him as the best shooter among the nation's small forward prospects; averaged 22.4 points and 8.6 rebounds as a prep senior, earning all-state honors and leading his team to the state title game; averaged 21.0 points and 8.6 rebounds as a junior; twice earned state player-of-the-year honors; posted a career-high scoring game of 39 points; and also was recruited by Michigan, South Carolina, St. Joseph's and Virginia Tech.

		#23 Naji Hibbert Freshman Guard 6-5 \| 200 Baltimore, Md. Hibbert was ranked No. 59 nationally by ESPN.com and was rated as a four-star recruit by Rivals.com; named to all-league and all-metro teams for the second straight year after averaging 15.7 points at storied DeMatha Catholic High School; and scored with 1.8 seconds left to lift DeMatha to the state championship. The team finished 31-4 and was ranked No. 4 nationally by ESPN. Hibbert averaged 15.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.1 steals per game as a junior; scored 44 points in an AAU game; and also was recruited by Clemson, Marquette, Maryland, Miami, Syracuse and Xavier.

		#25 Jeremy Adams Freshman Guard 6-5 \| 195 Madison, Miss. Adams was rated as the No. 2 player in Mississippi by ESPN after averaging 27.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 4.2 steals as a senior at Madison Central; earned all-state honors; had three 40-point scoring games and earned all-division, all-metro and all-state honors; twice scored 43 points in a game; led his team to three straight district titles; and also was recruited by Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia, Kentucky, Miami, Notre Dame and Wake Forest.

My thanks to the Texas A&M sports information department for the photos and most of the information for the bios.

The Analysis

As much as I dislike the Aggies, it's hard to discount them as a force in Big 12 basketball. Over the past five years, they have been to four consecutive NCAA tournaments, made five consecutive postseason appearances and finished in the top half of the conference every year. Other than Kansas and Texas, Texas A&M is the only Big 12 team to win 20+ games during that stretch.

But while Texas A&M has been a consistent winner, it hasn't yet been a serious challenger for a Big 12 championship. The Aggies regularly have lost to powers such as Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas; own a two-game, regular-season losing streak to Kansas State, despite being favored in both games; and occasionally are upset by less-talented programs such as Baylor and Texas Tech. They even struggled with Colorado last year, before pulling away late.

I don't think anything will change in 2009-2010, either. In fact, I think it is more likely that Texas A&M will decline, rather than rise up, despite adding a recruiting class that hovered in and out of Rivals' Class of 2009 rankings, before finishing just outside the Top 25.

Although the Aggies lost only two significant players off last year's team, only Oklahoma lost two more significant starters. Josh Carter and Chinemelu Elonu by far were A&M's two best players in 2008-2009. Carter, a four-year starter and the Aggies' leading scorer last year, graduated, while Elonu, the team's leading rebounder who already had earned his bachelor's degree, tested the NBA draft waters and was selected in the second round by the Los Angeles Lakers.

Luckily for A&M, Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis did not follow Elonu's lead, and instead pulled out of the draft to return for their senior seasons. Good thing, too, or the Aggies would have lost four starters and been totally decimated. Sloan is one of the league's better point guards and Davis should step up to fill Elonu's void as the team's leader in rebounding.

The other returning starter is Derrick Roland, who rivals Dominique Sutton and J.T. Tiller in terms of defensive intensity. He has been bothered by injuries the past few seasons, but assuming he stays healthy, he should lock up the off-guard position all year.

Projecting the other two starters is trickier. I'm pretty sure that Nathan Walkup, who played in all 32 games last season, will figure into the equation, though. At 6-7, Walkup offers nice size at the wing position, and he probably can also hold his own in the post, in a smaller lineup.

The fifth starter probably will be situational. My projections use a traditional PG-SG-SF-PF-C lineup, so I went with James Blasczyk, a 7-footer who is the tallest player left on the roster. But Blasczyk is coming off a redshirt season and hasn't yet played a game in Division I, so it's a stretch to say he will be a consistent starter.

It's more likely that the Aggies will go with a smaller lineup when the opponent's makeup presents the opportunity. In that case, Davis would shift to the 5 and Walkup to the 4, and B.J. Holmes probably would come in as a third guard. Holmes was the Aggies' "sixth man" last season and replaced Roland as a starter whenever the latter was out with an injury.

Dash Harris (what a great name for a point guard!) was one of the conference's most impressive freshmen last year. He is a solid backup for Sloan and will continue to play understudy to the senior, in preparation for next year when he will be counted upon to fill Sloan's considerable shoes. David Loubeau rounds out the 7-8 players I see making up the Aggies' primary player rotation. He's a solid reliever in the frontcourt with some size (6-8, 230).

Marshall Carrell as primary backup at center is a stretch. I mainly picked him there because at 6-9, he's the tallest player (other than Blasczyk and Davis) on the roster. But he is a role player who has played sparingly in years past, and that highlights one of the primary problems the Aggies face this season. Other than Davis and maybe Loubeau, there are no experienced centers on the roster. When A&M faces frontcourts such as those of Kansas, Kansas State or Texas, they are going to be challenged and they probably won't be able to measure up, due to a lack of depth. When Davis gets into foul trouble (and he does that a lot), the Aggies will lose games.

Other than Mark Turgeon, nobody knows much about Chris Chapman, Andrew Darko, Derrek Lewis or Shawn Schepel, because they have played next to no minutes. One or more could surprise, I suppose, but there's nothing there in the track record to make you think it's imminent.

Khris Middleton doesn't really stand above the other incoming freshmen, but I liked the unconventional spelling of his name, so he rounds out the projected two-deep. Jeremy Adams, Naji Hibbert and Ray Turner complete a solid, but not heralded, recruiting class. How they develop in the years to come could indicate whether Turgeon really is a great coach, or merely is coasting with players inherited from Billy Gillispie.

Projected Starting Lineup


Donald Sloan	Derrick Roland	Nathan Walkup	Bryan Davis	James Blasczyk
1	2	3	4	5

Projected Top Reserves


Dash Harris	B.J. Holmes	Khris Middleton	David Loubeau	Marshall Carrell
1	2	3	4	5

The Final Verdict

Texas A&M's track record demands that I pick them in the upper half of the Big 12. That much, at least, the Aggies have earned.

But losing Elonu was a huge blow that basically halved the frontcourt, in terms of high-level, star talent. When Bryan Davis squares off with Cole Aldrich, Craig Brackins, Andrew Fitzgerald, Keith Gallon, Damion James, Wally Judge, Curtis Kelly, Marcus Morris, Dexter Pittman and so forth, he's going to wish Elonu still was there to back him up.

Upper division? Yes. NCAA Tournament? Most likely. First-day bye in the Big 12 Tournament? I highly doubt it.

Predicted finish: 6th

Best-case scenario: 4th

Previously on KNOW THY ENEMY...

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Iowa State
Texas Tech
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Three Big 12ers, 2 Teams are NEXT

big12hoops — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 21:34:53 -0000

ESPN.com is starting a new series where they will call out the "players, teams, coaches and games that will leave their mark on the 2009-10 season."

In the first installment Andy Katz identifies 3 players and 2 teams from the Big 12 who are NEXT.

Avery Bradley, 6-3, Fr., G, Texas: Bradley seems to be the perfect fit for Texas coach Rick Barnes. He can get to the hole, he can shoot and he can defend. Barnes has made Texas a guards' destination of late, with T.J. Ford, A.J. Abrams and D.J. Augustin all having stellar careers in Austin. Barnes' ability to manage a game in his guards' best interest has been a key to his success. Bradley should slide into a team that is capable of challenging for the Big 12 title as well as a national title. For some reason he hasn't had as much pop nationally as a few others in the class, but soon enough he will get his due.

Craig Brackins, 6-10, Jr., PF, Iowa State: Brackins gets the game, both on and off the court. He understood he needed to polish his skills and was well aware that just putting up 40-plus points on Kansas wasn't enough to run for the first-round cash. Brackins wants more. He wants to enter the NBA as a contributor, not just a name with potential. You could see his work ethic during the USA Basketball trials in Colorado Springs, Colo., this past summer. He knew he wasn't guaranteed to make the World University Games team. He was there to work. He has a shot to take Iowa State to the postseason, more likely the NIT or CBI than NCAA, but that would still be an accomplishment if he can lead in that manner. The Big 12 has produced some monster talent recently and he's next in line to compete for the national honor.

Willie Warren, 6-4, So., G, Oklahoma: What is it about the Sooners lately? Oklahoma could legitimately produce consecutive national player of the year candidates from players who entered college without as much hype as some of the recent recipients. Blake Griffin was a stud, but he grew into an intimidating force within a year. Warren knew he had a chance to make his mark if he stayed. He's an exceptional creator with the basketball, a strong guard, who can make plays on every possession. Jeff Capel has done a fantastic job of managing elite-level talent in his brief career in Norman. Warren sensed that staying put instead of chasing the money was the right thing to do. Now the focus is on him, and he'll have plenty of momentum toward the NBA after this season.

Kansas vs. Texas: This is the NEXT rivalry if it's not one of the top two already. To the casual fan nothing will compare to Duke and North Carolina, and nothing should. But look deeper at the game and Kansas and Texas are putting together quite a run. The schools are 1-2 in the conference and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future. One of the best things about Duke and Carolina is that the rivalry also extends nationally, as both are usually in contention for a title. That's also now true of these two programs. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, Missouri and Kansas State will have turns trying to unseat either program, but the depth of talent KU and Texas are hauling in is unmatched. They are the marquee programs television wants to see on a nightly basis. Now, if the Big 12 could scrap its scheduling formula and mix it up a bit so this game was played twice a season, that would be something to savor. Can you imagine Duke and North Carolina only once in the ACC? That game has to be twice. So does this one.

Read the entire article

WTLC 2009 NBA Pre-Draft Coverage: OKC Thunder Work Out 12 Players

Mr Pappagiorgio — Sat, 09 May 2009 02:44:57 -0000

So you may have read about the Oklahoma City Thunder working out 12 players who will be part of the 2009 NBA Draft, in Darnell Mayberry's Thunder Rumblings Blog. The list of players, as you will see below, isn't exactly the caliber of player we would see the Thunder taking at #25 overall in the first round. Being as we only have two picks during the draft this season, both of which are first rounders, one might beg the question, why are the Thunder looking at these players? If you are, you are not the only one, some of the regulars who frequent the OKC Thunder Fans Forum, are wondering the same thing. One of our semi-regular commenters here at WTLC, A.D., brought up the point that they are working these guys out as likely free agent signings after the draft. While that is one good theory, WTLC has another theory that wasn't brought up during the thread linked above.

In THIS POST, which was made earlier in the week, we made the argument that at least 5 players, possibly 6, would probably not be returning next season, along with 2 more possibly headed for a season in Tulsa to gain experience and develop their game by getting substantially more playing time than they would be if they were sitting on the Thunder bench. So when considering that, and the fact the two of those guys are still sitting on contracts (Atkins and Watson), you can begin to put the pieces together as to why the Thunder might be working out some of these players, and although some may be looked at for post draft free agent signings, perhaps others are being looked at for 2nd Round Draft Choices. Did that get your attention? Thought so, now make the jump...

Before we get any further, I'm sure you are wondering who the 12 players are, right?

...from Thunder Rumblings. (Link at the top of this post)

Oklahoma State’s Terrell Harris, Texas’ A.J. Abrams, Marquette’s Jerel McNeal and USC’s Daniel Hackett headline this first group, which is filled with guards and has only one player listed taller than 6-foot-6.

Other players include: Jack McClinton (Miami), Paul Delaney (UAB), Jermaine Taylor (UCF), Garrett Temple (LSU), Courtney Fells (N.C. State), Josh Carter (Texas A&M), Joe Ingles (Melbourne Dragons) and Aaron Jackson (Duquesne).

So now you see why everyone is sort of wondering why the Thunder worked out these twelve players huh? We'll, lets jump in. Like we mentioned before, the Thunder have two guys in Earl Watson and Chucky Atkins that are likely to be traded and that could happen during the draft itself. The Thunder have value in the sense that both of these guys are expiring contracts and either one could likely be traded to a team looking to focus on creating room for the free agent bonanza in 2010, and its not entirely out of the question that either one could be traded straight up for a 2nd round pick (More than likely a late 2nd round choice).

Another trade scenario is that the Thunder aren't in Love with anyone at the #25 choice and doesn't want to get involved with guarantees that go along with first round selections. On draft day you might see the Thunder trade this pick for a pair of 2nd round choices or even package Atkins or Watson together with this pick, for a veteran player with multiple years left on his contract, and a 2nd round pick. Perhaps the Thunder really like what they see out of several of these workouts, we might even see both of those scenarios play out. Can you imagine the Thunder trading the 25th overall pick, Chucky Atkins, and Earl Watson all on draft day during multiple trades to pick up 3 or so 2nd round picks? To be honest, that's a bit of a stretch, but what I'm trying to emphasize here is, that the Thunder may very well be looking these guys to draft, in the 2nd round, as opposed to post-draft signing or using up that #25 overall pick.

A very big reason why I think you will probably see a trade during the draft and the Thunder acquiring a second round pick is because a good number of these guys are projected to go in the 2nd round. Seriously, why would the Thunder be working out players who are almost definitely going to go in the 2nd round, like Jermaine Taylor who is projected to go as high as #41 over at NBADraft.net in their Full 2 round mock draft. There you can take a quick peak and see where they think some of these guys are likely to go. We all know Sam Presti isn't hesitant to pull the trigger on any deal he feels will help the Thunder, and I just can't wait to finally see what he ends up doing. What do you guys think? Are the Thunder looking to ditch their #25 pick and drop to round 2? Or are they looking to sign these guys to free agent contracts or as possible project players at their D-League affiliate, the Tulsa 66ers?

Also, what do you think about going after Marcin Gortat? Read our thoughts and comment here: Free Agent Targets: Marcin Gortat?

Like this article? You might like our EOS Series too! (Click a Picture below to read our Final Evaluations)

2008-09 Texas Basketball Season Wrap

Peter Bean — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 12:00:10 -0000

In what may be my last substantial post for the next six weeks, a smattering of thoughts on the loss to Duke, the season's end, and what's ahead.

Apologies this is late coming, but it's damn difficult to type when Elliot Williams is handchecking you like John Stockton on androstenedione. I'm just sayin'.

Even had the game's final 90 seconds been without officiating controversy, the coaches, players, and fans of both teams should have been disgusted with the officials for their choppy, burdensome, and inconsistent work throughout the contest.

The operative word in the preceding, of course, is 'should'... In reality, it's difficult to imagine Coach K, his players, or Duke fans displeased with any ~~scrum~~ game that winds up defined by endless whistles, to be decided by close calls and free throw shooting.

All that said, I'd hardly urge Texas fans to channel their inner Mike Leach in an effort to file this loss in the C's for Conspiracy. The officials ruined the flow of the game and did Texas no favors, but on the list of reasons the 'Horns lost, officiating sits comfortably below a sizable list of factors within their control, including at least the following six:

Damion James' 6 turnovers, including three (literally) inexplicable passes even Matt Stafford would have refrained from attempting.
Dogus Balbay neutering his entire offensive value by tentatively playing to avoid mistakes rather than attacing to create plays.
A total of 9 missed free throws, including 6 in the second half.
The inability of Connor Atchley or Justin Mason to have any positive impact on the game.
Gary Johnson playing with as much self-control and maturity as a three week-old puppy. (Seriously, Todd Wright needs to give him two Xanax prior to every tip.)
The sad ease with which Texas' impotent perimeter shooting, combined with their substandard post-entry strategies, allowed the substantially undersized Blue Devils to limit the impact of Big Sexy.

Safe to say Rick Barnes did not read my game preview, in which I urged Texas (1) to gameplan around limiting Duke's freebie points at the line (concurrently protecting our foul situation), in large part by (2) not trying to pressure Gerald Henderson on ball 22+ feet from the basket. Unfortunately, Barnes went for the perimeter pressure, playing right into Duke's strengths while magnifying Texas' own weaknesses and exposure to fouls. It hurt my basketball soul watching Juston Mason repeatedly try to pressure and contain Henderson at or beyond the three point line, only to be dusted on the dribble time and again -- the end result of each a great look at/near the rim for Henderson or, predictably, free throws.

It was a trifecta of fail: First, in allowing Henderson to fire free as a slasher and playmaker, the strategy helped Duke's only explosive offensive weapon -- who, don't forget, is prone to disappear if not allowed a dribble drive game -- remain an active, engaged focal point of an otherwise pedestrian Duke offense; Second, it paved Henderson's way to higher percentage looks near the basket and at the charity stripe. And third, it led Texas to precisely the foul issues it could least afford. Though I understand what Barnes was hoping to do, the game as it unfolded demonstrated exactly why I thought it was the wrong defensive tactic.

In the end, the final loss was a perfect microcosm of Texas' season story, as the 'Horns managed to encapsulate in one performance each of their various M.O.'s throughout the up-and-down year: They proved themselves perfectly capable of beating a quality team... Though they nearly succeeded on the backs of two standout performances, in the end it wasn't enough to overcome a half dozen forgettable ones... And finally, Texas' own fundamental lapses in execution were fatal in a close game to the final buzzer.

AJ Abrams has had higher scoring games throughout his Texas career, but his all-around excellent play against Duke elevates the performance to or near the top of his greatest games list. As he battled to help keep afloat a stagnant Texas offense not able to get Pittman the ball in post position, each of Abrams' 17 points were hard earned. Elsewhere, on the defensive end his pick pocket of Scheyer at midcourt (one of two steals on the night) was a beautiful, perfectly timed, veteran move. More still, Abrams' 5 rebounds reflected well the effort with which he played for all 40 minutes, while both of his assists were highlight reel, make-you-holler dimes which came at crucial junctures of the game when Texas desperately needed to score. Though we all know that Abrams' poor performances often had the capacity to be especially grating for fans to watch, when all things are considered, there's no question AJ Abrams was a very good, four-year, record-setting player who contributed a lot more to dozens of Longhorns wins than his bad nights did cost the team losses. Maybe best of all, Abrams overcame the unfortunate, self-created string of summer distractions to become a team-oriented leader who made the best of an intensely challenging senior year. Hook 'em.

Ending on a far less satisfying note was the career of Connor Atchley, his final shot in burnt orange -- an uncontested three that missed -- all too fitting a cap for what was a season-long struggle to regain his junior year form. At this point, it'd just be cruel and unfair to speculate what may have gone wrong -- and especially so considering the intensive work Atchley put in as a player, culminating in his surprise development into a critical piece of the '08 Elite Eight team. By all accounts he's a good kid and a ferocious, dedicated worker. And in gratefully saluting Atchley's Texas career by recalling my favorite memory of a play he made, I'm reminded it doesn't seem like all that long ago when he hit that unforgettable three pointer to send Texas to double overtime in Stillwater. Hook 'em.

Though it's tough to get too down on a player who started all 35 games, producing 15.4 points and 9.2 rebounds in 29.5 minutes per game, it really was discouraging that so many of Damion James' complementary skills (dribbling, perimeter shooting, unforced turnovers, shot selection, situational understanding) continued to linger so far behind his core skill set as a rebounder and 12-feet-and-in scorer. Unfortunately, the persistence of those problems seems as much as anything to be related manifestations of James' incredibly poor basketball instincts & on-court intelligence. Ultimately, if he wants to overcome those deficiencies and have a chance at playing in the NBA, he's going to have to continue working harder than everyone else. James hasn't yet announced whether or not he'll return to work on his game as a senior at Texas.

That was a tough way for Big Sexy to end his breakthrough junior season, but if he spends this offseason working on conditioning and polish as hard as he has in previous ones... by the time Texas tips its first game next November he'll have his very own suffix: Dexter Pittman, Preseason First Team All Big 12. And if anyone's paying proper attention, among those receiving All American attention, as well.

What on Earth are we to make of Varez Ward stepping into the spotlight of a season elimination game? On the downside, it reinforced just how bogged down Texas was trying to run the offense through Balbay with no shooters on the floor. But on the positive side it reinforces one of Varez Ward's greatest strengths as a basketball player, and which I happened to highlight a month ago in the Oklahoma game preview, calling for Ward to be the primary defensive player assigned to Willie Warren:

Instead, I think this is an assignment with WARD, V. painted all over it. He definitely gives up a couple inches and fifteen pounds to Warren, but Ward is like one of those MMA fighters -- as pound-for-pound strong and athletic as they come. More than that, he's absolutely fearless in that way you can't teach a kid. He doesn't mind a physical game/lots of contact, he'll gladly play perimeter D or mix it up in the paint, and he's a full-fledged gamer who -- it's been obvious all season -- seeks out challenges. I want to see him take on this one.

Yup, that still sounds about right to me... For Ward, obviously, but also the point that such a fearless, challenge-seeking mindset is not one easily coached into a player. You either got it or you don't, and though no one should invest in the fool's gold of Ward as the focal point first option of next year's offense, he established himself as a tremendously valuable and versatile asset:

He's a truly top-top-tier athlete.
His on-court instincts are as natural as Damion James' are wholly absent.
He isn't afraid -- of physical play, of a challenge, of pressure, of making a mistake.
Correspondingly, he wants the toughest assignments, the most pressure, etc. Total fearlessness, confidence, and a short memory.
And finally, he's a smooth, natural playmaker. While his too-high 44 turnovers reflect his inexperience, I wish I had a tape of each one so I could point out how many were almost-good ideas that didn't quite work out, but which I appreciated as attempts to make the kinds of plays that you want a player to be able to see developing.

Is it me, or did Dogus Balbay's freshman season mimic the career arc of Connor Athcley? Very little playing time and modest expectations at first, followed by an up-and-down learning/transition period of increased usage, leading to an exciting peak at the three-quarters mark, followed by a truly befuddling letdown at the very end. Weird....

Coincidental oddities aside, Balbay was cruising right along through the end of the regular season before the trouble started in the Big 12 quarterfinals with his five turnovers against the athletic pressure guards of Kansas State. Barnes yanked him and gave Balbay a few earfuls worth of criticism to think about. Though a day later against Baylor Balbay would play well during his 23 minutes of floor time, Barnes still appeared to be keeping him on a short leash, sitting him a full 10:30 minutes during the second half. Whatever the various issues displeasing Barnes, from that point on Balbay's confidence was visibly shaken. He played very tentatively against Minnesota -- like a player trying to avoid mistakes instead of make plays -- then appeared to lose whatever offensive aggressiveness he'd mustered for Duke after missing a point blank lay up.

Though when this season began few were as immediately bullish as I was about about Dogus Balbay, the end of this season made me realize it was possible that at least some of my enthusiasm may have beenparticularized -- tied to what I felt confident Dogus could do for this year's point guard-less squad. But what about next year, when Jai Lucas -- a nominal point guard with a legitimate scoring game -- arrives? It really depends what kinds of improvements Balbay's capable of developing in one offseason, and if you're of the opinion what we saw this year is more or less what Balbay will be next year, it seems like he'd slide into platoon/role player duties, utilized primarily as an on-ball defensive specialist and/or change of look/rest for Lucas.

That may be the most likely outcome, but even if not it's at least as likely as the more optimistic alternative (towards which I lean): I see as attainable substantial growth in Balbay himself, further magnified thanks to the arrival and impact of his new teammates. Whereas this year a dribbling Balbay stared down from the top of the key wondering how to attack a glob of defensive bodies all packed in the paint, next year's reinforcements will render completely unviable a similar defensive strategy. That's good news for Balbay, who has yet to encounter a defender he can't laser by on the dribble. Next year, he'll have more space to do just that, the awaiting gob of defensive bodies replaced by an open rim or a dunking Dexter.

And really, if you extend the preceding thought to its logical conclusion, the good news isn't exclusively Balbay's to enjoy. Varez Ward isn't as lightning fast as Dogus with the ball in his hands (no one is), but he's every bit the same ridiculous athlete with more than enough ability and know-how to get to the rim for a score, foul, or dump off. (It'll take a lot better defender than John Scheyer, that much we know.) And moving beyond Ward, not only should the reach of the good news be a boon to every returning Longhorn, but also -- I think it's fair to say -- Rick Barnes.

Eleven years in, Texas hoops junkies are well aware of what Barnes does and doesn't do well (the strengths far outstripping the weaknesses), the reality being he's not the first coach you'd choose to install a halfcourt offense for the personnel he had on hand this past season. Barnes wants to run (and successfully recruits to be able to execute) a fluid offense based on spacing principles, ball screens, and dribble penetration. Without the right personnel capable of capitalizing on the advantages on which the system depends, it's little more than what Jimmy Dykes in 2007-08 (wrongly) disparaged as "a bunch of random ball screens."

Dykes missed the mark because with the right personnel (several versatile, high-caliber offensive players or, if the point guard is elite enough even just one), the "random ball screen offense" is very much a legitimate, effective, and viable offensive system based on sound principles. Not only that, but I'm tempted to argue that the impact on college hoops of the NBA's recently enacted age-limit rule may soon make dribble drive offensive principles (if they aren't already) comparable to spread offensive principles in college football. And if, as most believe, the NBA soon bumps its age limit up again, the stampede of coaches rushing to incorporate dribble drive offenses will come sooner rather than later. And that's one of the biggest reasons I'm quick to call myopic those who criticize Rick Barnes on these grounds. It's completely backwards -- we should be glad he's been an early adopter.

Looking ahead, in case you'd forgotten about Texas' #2-ranked incoming recruiting class, a few links to get you up to speed:

Big Roy's 'Recruiting Spotlights' on: Jordan Hamilton, Avery Bradley 1, Bradley 2, Shawn Williams, Jai Lucas (transfer from Florida)
Barking Carnival's Trips Right on the incoming class

And finally, a housekeeping note: Same as last year, my law exams fall in the same week as the football annual must go off to the press for printing. And like last year, the reality of the insane volume of work in front of me has politely waited for hoops to end before crashing down on me. But here we are, and something's gotta give if it's all gonna get done, so I don't expect to be writing much around here during this mad sprint to the finish. Dimecoverage will be around Mondays and Thursdays, while Big Roy's going to be the main man bringing daily doses of his always-excellent news and analysis. Last but not least -- by all means, please take things into your own hands. Keep the Fan Posts lively and I'll be on the look out for good stuff to bump over to run down the middle column.

Once again, it was a damn fun season -- thanks to all (okay, most) who chose to spend it here with us. Same time and place next year.

2008-2009 Longhorns Good But Never Great

awiggo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 20:05:01 -0000

The Texas Longhorns are done for the season. But why? My first reaction at the end of last night’s game was the same as many of yours—blame the refs. We got robbed! Duke got all the calls, all the bounces, all the breaks, etc. Upon further reflection, whistles were not the reason that we lost in the second round to Duke. In fact, I thought the Duke loss was a near perfect manifestation of the entire season.

The same questions we had about this team before the season were never answered. The same warts that we saw in conference play appeared again in Greensboro. And the same players basically played the same way in the NCAA tournament that they had all season.

I don’t want this to be an overly negative post and I promise another post with all the positive things this team did over the course of the season. But I think it is important to single out the reasons why this Texas team was good but never great.

No Reliable Point Guard
Sure, Dogus Balbay came on late in the season and showed on many occasions that he could lead the team. But in pressure situations, the lack of true point guard who could pressure a defense with passing and scoring hurt the ‘Horns. How many times this year did you write in the comment section that you missed DJ Augustin? How many times did you and your fellow basketball lovers curiously question where this team would be had Augustin elected to stay another year? I know that I did plenty of times just as I did after TJ Ford left after his sophomore year.

Rick Barnes started the year with AJ Abrams at the point but that experiment was over before the team returned from Maui. Abrams could not create off the dribble for others and is much better in catch-and-shoot situations than firing off the dribble. Then, we put the ball in Justin Mason’s hands. This worked fine, for the most part, and Mason even filled up the stat sheet with five, six, and seven assist games against just a turnover or two for the better part of the middle of the season. But Mason’s defense began to slip and opponents began to figure out that Justin couldn’t hit the backboard, let alone sink a jumper, from more than 15 feet. So, the Mason era ended and Dogus Balbay took over.

Again, Texas fans were struck with instant positive results. Dogus is incredibly quick off the dribble, a remarkable athlete, and a more than capable passer with either hand. Unfortunately, Dogus was not a pass first-shoot second leader like he had been billed since his arrival in Austin. Balbay is a past-first, drive-second, pass-third, shoot-never point guard. As opponents figured out that Balbay had never seen one of his jumpers fall through the hoop, a one man zone became the defense of choice for Big XII opponents down the stretch. Never was this more apparent than at Oklahoma State when Terrel Harris began to double team Dexter Pittman in the post even when his man, Balbay, had the ball at the top of the key.

Our point guard by committee, like our team, was serviceable but never great. It could be argued that a fourth part of this committee was forced to emerge last night as Varez Ward more than earned his playing time with a gutty, attack the basket 16 point performance over and around the slower Duke defenders. I would remiss unless I pointed out that the need for Ward to assume the ball handling duties full-time would not have been needed if it wasn’t for the below average performance by Balbay. Take a look at his line last night: 32 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists and 4 turnovers. It is hard to be a dynamic offensive team when your point guard plays nearly the entire game and fails to record a single assist.

No Perimeter Shooting
Other than AJ, this team can’t shoot from outside the lane. Please don’t point out Damion James’ occasional three-pointer or Gary Johnson’s 16 foot jumper. Fool’s gold, both of them. Last night, Texas shot 3-of-12 from behind the arc. On the season, Texas shot 32.8% from three, good for 234th best in the country (Ken Pomeroy). Of 344 Division I teams, shot ranked 321st in the country in percentage of points scored from behind the arc. Texas got just 19% of all points from deep.

I am not advocating that Texas needed to be a three point shooting team. They did not. Before the season, the strength of this team appeared to be Dexter Pittman, Gary Johnson, Alexis Wangmene, and Damion James scoring in the paint. Texas did, however, need to present at least the threat of an outside shot so that those players wouldn’t be defended with two players before they got the ball and three players after.

Texas has never been a great team at feeding the post. To me, this is a weakness that has been present throughout the Rick Barnes era. This year, though, the problem wasn’t the skill of actually feeding the post as much as it was that there was little to no room to do so. If defenders aren’t worried about getting torched by perimeter jumpers, they naturally sag off the offensive player to both encourage long jump shots and to more easily eliminate driving angles. That is exactly what happened this season as defenses would have paid every Texas perimeter player, except AJ Abrams, to shoot jumps shots.

Shaky Free Throw Shooting
Texas shot 16-of-25 (64%) from the free throw stripe against Duke. Duke shot 21-of-27 (78%) from the free throw stripe against Texas. Also, the Longhorns were just 8-of-14 (57%) in the second half. Imagine how different this game would have been had Texas sank a few more free throws. Imagine how many close games would have gone differently had Texas not shot just 66.8% from the line as a team. Would we have won another conference game, finished alone in fourth in the Big XII, and maybe earned a better seed in the NCAAs? Maybe. We probably would have defeated Duke in their own backyard and been preparing for a rematch with Villanova as I write this. Regardless of how the calls went down the stretch, the team that took advantage of their trips to the line is still in the tournament while the team that left points at the stripe has been eliminated.

No Go-to Scorer
At one point early in the season, I wrote that we didn’t have a go-to scorer like Augustin, Durant, Tucker, or Ford. I questioned where Barnes would go in a final possession with the game on the line—AJ on the baseline or James in the high post or Dexter on the low block or our point guard of the evening off the dribble. I didn’t know then, and I still don’t know now.

Down two last night to Duke, Damion James called for, received, and shot a baseline three pointer that would have given Texas a one point lead with less than a minute to go. It was a good shot, but was it the best shot? Was a James jump shot our go-to-play? Abrams is certainly our most consistent and best shooter but he has been blanketed all of 2009 and cannot create his own shot. Dexter is an offensive force but can’t score unless he is somehow fed the ball. Balbay or Ward off the dribble are options as well. The point is that, unlike in previous seasons with a future NBA lottery pick in burnt orange, Texas lacked a go to player all season long.

Disappearance of Connor Atchley and Justin Mason
Did DJ Augustin really make that big a difference in the games of these two upperclassmen? Last night, Connor played six minutes, failed to score a single point in his final game as a Longhorn, and grabbed just one rebound. Justin Mason wasn’t much better (22 minutes, three points, one rebound, two assists, and two turnovers), and Barnes had so little confidence in him that he chose to leave Balbay in the game after moving Ward to the point, even though Dogus was not a threat to score at all.

Connor was in Austin for five years and has a remarkable junior season, but his regression this season was a big reason for the offensive stagnation, as were Mason’s struggles on both ends of the court.

All in all, this was a good but never great basketball team. The loss of Alexis Wangmene hurt on both ends, the inability to sink perimeter jump shots killed our offensive spacing, and the need to go small with three guards gave back some of our ability to rebound and defend at an elite level. As I wrote last night, I am proud of this team. They were certainly flawed in many areas but fought hard all season long and came within a bounce or two of the Sweet 16.

Future posts will look at the positives from the 2008-09 campaign, Damion James’ NBA decision, and in addition to the incoming freshman and Jai Lucas, what our existing players need to improve on to take this team back to the Final Four.

Texas Comes Up Short in Greensboro, Ends Season

awiggo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 04:09:51 -0000

#7 Texas fell, 74-69, to #2 Duke in the second round of the East Regional in a hard fought, entertaining, and even match up. The Blue Devils will move on to face #3 Villanova in the Sweet 16 in Boston, while the Texas Longhorns' season officially ends at 23-12.

The Longhorns were in it until the final minute despite 15 turnovers, shaky foul shooting, and a failure to exploit Duke in the post. It was not to be though. A great play by Jon Scheyer, mostly clutch free throw shooting by Duke, and some Blue Devil bounces all helped send Coach K's team to the next round.

There will be plenty of time for analysis of the season, a closer look at Damion James' NBA decision, and projections for next year's club.

However, use this thread for your post game thoughts and favorite memories of seniors AJ Abrams and Connor Atchley. I've said this many times throughout this season, this is an offensively limited club but also a team with real heart and plenty of character.

Despite the loss, I've never been prouder.

2009 NCAA Bracket Breakdown: East Region

WakeJake — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 02:03:14 -0000

Predicted Winning Teams in Bold

First Round

(1) Pittsburgh vs (16) East Tennessee State - In this matchup between teams rated 6 and 113 in the Pomeroy ratings, the Panthers should dominate from the opening tip. We all know that a 16 has never beaten a 1 and that's not going to be the case here either.

(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Tennessee - Honestly, Tennessee is just not a good basketball team. They are 103rd in FG percentage offense and 223rd in FG percentage defense. Oklahoma State is a bad defensive team, but they make up for it by being solid on offense. The Cowboys are also 25th in the nation in three point percentage and Tennessee does not appear to guard anyone outside the arc.

(5) Florida State vs. (12) Wisconsin - This looks like a promising upset pick here because of the big name in the 12 slot and the yearly occurrence of this upset taking place, but I'm not falling for it. This game may end up with a final score of 28-24 because FSU emphasizes defense and Wisconsin plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation. Bob Ryan is a great coach and this game will come down to the wire, but I think the height of Florida State and the senior leadership of Toney Douglas will lead the Seminoles to victory.

(4) Xavier vs. (13) Portland State - Xavier is a top 50 team on both ends of the floor according to KenPom while Portland State is 200th in defense. I'm all chalk so far and this is not going to be an upset either.

(6) UCLA vs. (11) VCU - VCU is paced by PG Eric Maynor who led the Rams to a tournament win over Duke two years ago. On the other hand, UCLA has been to the Final Four three straight years and still has the leadership of Collison and Shipp from those teams. UCLA is a very solid six seed that I'm sure VCU was disappointed to draw after earning an 11 seed. This may be a popular upset pick too, but I do not think Collison will allow UCLA to get bounced that early.

(3) Villanova vs. (14) American - Not much to see here. I'm proud to be an American, but not that proud.

(7) Texas vs. (10) Minnesota - The emergence of Texas center Dexter Pittman could be a big story in this region. The big fella had a couple huge games in the Big 12 tournament and will look to help A.J. Abrams and Damien James make a run in the NCAA tournament. Tubby Smith did a good job getting the Gophers back to the tournament, but their turnover woes and youth in the paint may stop them from getting a win in the first round.

(2) Duke vs.(15) Binghamton - Tony Kornhesier's alma mater will look to shock the world here, but this disciplined Duke team will not let that happen.

Second Round

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (8) Oklahoma State - If Oklahoma State is hitting their three point shots, they could make this one interesting. However, the beastliness of DeJuan Blair and the vastly underrated Sam Young will carry the Panthers to the Sweet 16.

(5) Florida St. vs. (4) Xavier - As an ACC homer, I think the Noles are hungry and take this one. This is a matchup of the tallest team in the nation and the 21st tallest team in the nation. I do not think Xavier is used to playing this kind of talented height in the Atlantic 10 and All-ACC point guard Toney Douglas will be looking to end his career with a bang.

(6) UCLA vs. (3) Villanova - This is without a doubt one of the premier potential matchups in the second round. UCLA is 3rd in the nation in offensive efficiency and, as I explained earlier, has major tournament experience even though a few of their key players are freshmen. VIllanova has some dynamite guards as always in Reynolds, Stokes and Fisher to go along with Dante Cunningham in the paint. I just have the feeling that Ben Howland will outduel Jay Wright and the Bruins will march to the Sweet 16.

(7) Texas vs. (2) Duke - If you would have told me this was a second round tournament game in November, I would have thought Duke really dropped off. Instead, Texas is the one that had a disappointing season behind an inconsistent A.J. Abrams. This game will likely come down to three point shooting, as Duke loves the outside shot and Abrams is never shy. However, if Texas is disciplined they should be able to take advantage of Duke's inferior height. Pittman, James, Johnson and Atchley have the length and muscle to bother the Blue Devils inside. In the end, I see Abrams' eyes lighting up as the nation pulls for him against Duke and Texas advances. It was about time for me to go out on a limb anyway, right?

Sweet Sixteen

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (5) FSU - Again, this would be a grind-it-out defensive matchup. While the Seminoles would likely make a game of it, they just do not have enough offensive weapons to keep up with Pitt. Blair would have more trouble with Alibi, Reid, Gibson and Singleton than in previous rounds, but Young and Fields pick up the slack and advance.

(6) UCLA vs. (7) Texas - As I have discussed earlier, KenPom loves the Bruins and I love their experience. On the other hand, Texas has the ability to be really good and is still trying to adjust to the loss of D.J. Augustin, as evidenced by their results on the season. I keep telling myself that Texas is a bad pick, but I just cannot resist. Connor Atchely blocks a Collison shot at the buzzer and the Longhorns shock the nation as they play to their potential and advance to the Elite Eight.

Elite Eight

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Texas - The run ends here for Rick Barnes' club. Pitt is too well-balanced and talented for the Longhorns. Levance Fields is a big game player and leads this tough Pitt team to the Final Four.

Final Four Pick - Pittsburgh

Stay tuned for Blogger So Dear's breakdown of the West and Midwest on Wednesday!

Brief Bracket Preview: East Region

CW — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 13:00:11 -0000

Most Intriguing First Round Game: UCLA vs. VCU. Every year I fall in love with a few teams as NCAA sleepers, and every year, without fail, they're paired against each other before the Sweet Sixteen. This year I liked VCU, UCLA and Villanova, and sure enough, only one of those teams will be making it to the conference semifinals. Eric Maynor will try to hold his own against the Jrue Holiday/Darren Collison tag team, while Larry Sanders - a freak inside - will patrol the paint. You can be sure the Philadelphia crowd will be against the Bruins, but will that be enough?

Best Possible Opening Weekend Showdown: Texas/Duke and ‘Nova/UCLA. If Texas can get past Minnesota, they'll get to take a shot at the Blue Devils, who haven't been past the Sweet Sixteen since 2004. Duke doesn't have anyone to match up with a rested Dexter Pittman, while the Longhorn defense has the athleticism to lock down the Duke perimeter shooters. AJ Abrams and Damion James against Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Gerald Henderson? I like it, although Tubby Smith may have something to say about the game even happening.

I also love the idea of a bunch of potential NBA guards throwing down with a trip to the Sweet Sixteen on the line, but the fact this game is in Villanova's backyard would be a huge disadvantage to UCLA, who hasn't had to travel East very often during their run of Final Fours.

Potential Sleeper (5 seed or higher): UCLA. Can you tell I don't think very highly of the top half of the bracket beyond the one seed? UCLA's got the pedigree, the guards and the defense, but they're going to be playing in front of a very partisan crowd. Never discount Ben Howland's ability to muck up a game so that talent and momentum are taken out of the equation.

Trendy Pick (4 seed or lower): Villanova. Here's a fun fact for you: three of the last four years, the Wildcats have been eliminated by the eventual national champion (including on that bogus traveling call against UNC in the 2005 Sweet Sixteen). Dante Cunningham is now a crusty veteran, while Jay Wright's plethora of guards seldom disappoint. The sad thing about taking VCU, Villanova or UCLA is that only one will survive one of the two toughest pods in the entire tournament. If you want to take UCLA or ‘Nova, you can't sort of have a good vibe or be playing a hunch; you have to love love love them.

Why The Favorite Could Fall: The Panthers have never been past the Sweet Sixteen in the Howland/Dixon era, and with DeJuan Blair's recurrent foul difficulties, that could continue. However, a lot of the previous Pitt teams have made deep conference tournament runs, so this one has perhaps had more time to focus on the bigger prize. Oklahoma State has some talent and the bottom half of the bracket is just loaded. I don't think the Panthers will have that much trouble getting to the Elite Eight, but they'll have to earn that trip to Detroit in the regional final.

Morning Coffee Is Ready To Play Whack-A-Gopher

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 12:00:10 -0000

Horns get good draw. Or, according to Chip Brown ($), a "dream draw." Minnesota doesn't have an efficient offense and is the best match up for the Longhorns of all the 10 seeds -- avoiding USC, Michigan, and Maryland, all teams that could cause problems for the 'Horns. Trips Right likes Texas against Minnesota because the interior players for the Gophers won't involve Pittman in pick-and-roll situations that can pressure his lateral movement or get him in foul trouble.

The Duke match up is also as favorable for the Longhorns as it could be, according to Trips, who breaks it down to which coach has to make the adjustment about Dexter Pittman. If Coach K has to go with Zoubek to stop PIttman, the Longhorns have a great chance at winning. However, if Lance Thomas and the Duke help defense can neutralize Pittman, Duke will have a big advantage at the offensive end, particularly if they can get hot from deep. Good stuff from the Barking writer -- I can't think of anything to add about the Duke game.

Keys to success in the tournament. The Longhorns have struggled all season to maintain any level of consistency in play. It's truly been a roller-coaster ride. However, there are some things the Longhorns can do consistently to help themselves win.

Get Dexy the ball. The Texas offense was clicking when running the high/low offense Rick Barnes installed late in the season. It's effective when the 'Horns run it, but only is the only perimeter player capable of making the entry pass, meaning he must catch the ball at a very specific spot on the floor -- the 45-degree angle on the wing -- and have enough separation to enter the ball. If Abrams doesn't have the pass, the other big has to flash to the top of the key quickly to make the entry pass over the top. Teams are more ready for this than they were, pressuring the big making the entry pass and doubling down from the weakside to help, where the other guard isn't a threat to shoot.
Get James catches near the basket. Against Kansas State, James spent much of the game in foul trouble, picking up three offensive fouls by the end of the contest. He's a turnover machine when he catches the ball behind the arc and attempts to dribble-drive, with three give-aways against Baylor and four against Kansas State. However, if he can catch the ball in the mid range, his game is infinitely better and his turnover rate decreases drastically.
Can Dogus handle the pressure? Minnesota may well press, putting the pressure on Dogus Balbay to make good decisions with the basketball. Against Kansas State, Balbay was as bad as he has been handling the ball all season, turning it over five times, often carelessly. Under Tubby Smith the Gophers don't use a pressure defense as consistently, as teams like Missouri or Louisville, but they will occasionally press to exploit an opposing guard with a shaky handle. If Balbay makes mistakes early, Rick Barnes won't be afraid to attach his backside to the bench.
Crash the defensive glass. Kansas State killed the Longhorns on the offensive glass with 15 offensive rebounds, a skill they possess in ample quantifies -- they are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country, grabbing an astonishing 42.1% of their misses. Minnesota isn't nearly as proficient, ranking 69th in the country, pulling down 36% of their missed shots. Minnesota does have some active bigs and could give the Longhorns trouble if they don't block out. Minnesota isn't going to consistently beat teams on the offensive glass, but it's been a problem recently for Texas.
Balbay's defense improved. PB's Basketball Report v. 2.7 sparked a lengthy debate in the comments sections about the merits of Dogus Balbay's defense, with my contribution regarding Balbay's issues avoiding foul far out on the perimeter. Since that time, Balbay has been much improved in the area, not committing any fouls away from the basket during the last several games, an impossible task for him during much of the season. If he can continue to play good on-the-ball defense without fouling he could be a significant force on the defensive end in the tournament.

Gopher sophomore has flair for the dramatic. Blake Hoffarber. If the name rings a bell somewhere deep in the back of your mind, it should. Take a moment to refresh your memory with the clip below, perhaps:

Most Amazing Basketball Shot Ever (via Petersoncinema)

Hoffarber certainly could have called it quits after that incredible shot to send the game into overtime for the state championship in Minnesota and always been famous, but when you have that kind of flair for the dramatic, why stop there? Playing for his home state school as a freshman last season, Hoffarber further cemented his place in basketball lore during the Big 10 Tournament, hitting another ridiculous shot:

Minnesota-Indiana: Blake Hoffarber miracle shot (via trojanloy)

It's not all circus shots for Hoffarber, though compared to a solid freshman season that saw him average more than eight points per game and knock down more than 40% of his three-point attempts, he has suffered from the proverbial sophomore slump, with his scoring average, field goal percentage, free throw percentage, three-point percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratio all down from his freshman season.

If he gets hot, it's from the three-point line, hitting 6-10 against Ohio State this season and 5-8 against Colorado State. Given his propensity for making big shots in big moments, if the game is close coming down to the wire, watch out for Hoffarber, as he would no doubt like to add a game-winning shot in the NCAA Tournament to his constantly-growing list of ridiculous shots.

Getting to know Lawrence Westbrook. The cousin of Brian Westbrook, the Eagles running back, junior guard Lawrence leads the Golden Gophers in scoring at 12.4 points per game, the only player on the team to average in double digits. At six feet tall, Westbrook is undersized for an off guard and doesn't shoot the three-pointer particularly well, peaking at 39% his sophomore season before regressing to 35% this season.

He isn't a player to close out on out of control, but is a streaky shooter, able to knock down three or more if he hits the first one or starts feeling good about himself. One way Westbrook starts feeling good about himself is by getting to the free-throw line, where he shoots 85%. Basically, the idea for the Texas guards is not to let Westbrook do what Jacob Pullen did for Kansas State on Thursday -- hitting some wide-open looks to get himself in rhythm, then using foul shots to find the confidence to make even more difficult shots. Make things consistently difficult early by taking away open rhythm looks from outside and not bailing him out when he gets in the lane -- keep him off the free-throw line.

Westbrook doesn't create much for his teammates, averaging only 1.5 assists per game, a rate lower than teammate Damian Johnson, a 6-7 forward. Strangely, when Westbrook does create for his teammates Minnesota struggles -- 1-3 in games Westbrook had four or more assists. For the season, Westbrook has 18 more turnovers than assists -- 63 to 45. For comparison, AJ Abrams, much maligned for his supposed lack of playmaking ability, has only three more turnovers than assists, 46 to 43.

If the Longhorn guards can put pressure on Westbrook, he does sometimes make poor decisions with the ball, committing four turnovers on four separate occasions, while managing only two assists in those games. It might be a game to pressure Minnesota, taking the ball out of the hands of primary ball-handler Al Nolen and forcing Westbrook to make decisions -- a great assignment for Varez Ward, who could really bother the smaller player. Dogus Balbay is another option, with his pressuring perimeter defense.

Tubby Smith was concerned enough about the decision making of Westbrook and fellow starter Nolen to bench them for the final two games of the regular season, a time that saw Minnesota fighting for their post-season life. A strong statement from Tubby, who is hoping that his leading scorer can stay under control against the Longhorns. When Texas struggled in the middle of the conference season, it was while opposing guards torched Texas -- think Denis Clemente and Corey Higgins -- making it critical for the Longhorns to keep Westbrook from becoming the 2009 WTF? Scorer, v. 3.0.

Another gut-check against Missouri. Last season, it took extreme adversity in the form of two incredibly ugly performances against Missouri for Chance Ruffin to step up and become the leader of the team. The team this season is in much better shape, coming into the Sunday game against the Tigers at 13-2 and ranked number one in the country. However, the Longhorns split the first two games in a double-header on Saturday, struggling once again to score runs, leaving Sunday as the rubber game in the series.

Even with the supposedly hitter-friendly lineup including Russell Moldenhauer and Michael Torres against tough right-handed Nick Tepesch, the Longhorns managed only 1 run in the first eight innings against the Mizzou starter, taking poor swings and making poor contact for most of the afternoon.

Finally, down 3-1 in the ninth, Texas scored three runs to win the game on an error by the shortstop, trying to complete a double play that would have ended the Texas threat with the game tied. Kevin Keyes pinch hit to provide his trademark power, driving a 2-2 offering to the deepest part of the ballpark for a double and the first run of the inning. Travis Tucker followed with a single poked over the second baseman's head on an 0-2 count to tie the game and Michael Torres put the ball in play with two strikes that led to the final error and Texas victory.

Augie preaches concentration, a trait the Longhorns showed at the plate during the final inning, but something they need to do more consistently before it's almost too late. Don't press at the plate, but approach each at-bat with full mental concentration brought to bear. It's impossible to do so all the time in baseball, but doing it when the game is on the line is certainly a major asset to a team and demonstrates the resiliency that defines champions.

It's too early to say this team is championship-caliber, but wins like Sunday start making you want to believe.

Sick pitching, slick fielding. It's a time-tested recipe for success honed by head chief Augie. Prepared lovingly, with just the right pinch of situational hitting, the 2005 team had the exact ingredients and prep skills to make a sixth championship a reality, with a staff era of 2.80, led by starters Kenn Kasparek, Kyle McCulloch, and Adrian Alaniz, each with an ERA under 3.00, and only 62 errors on the season, a .978 fielding percentage.

If the early returns on the season are an indication, the 2009 team is gathering the ingredients together to finally make a run at a return to Omaha. Defensively, the fielding percentage is currently within two plays out of one thousand of the 2005 team, with a .980 fielding percentage marred only by the uneven play of David Hernandez, who has committed seven of the team's 12 errors, including four against Texas State. For some reason, Hernandez had a reputation coming in as a good defensive shortstop and light hitter, but made 20 errors last season for an unsightly .927 fielding percentage, far too low for a shortstop, while exceeding expectations at the plate. Since Brandon Loy is a natural shortstop, Hernandez's job could be in jeopardy if he doesn't field better, but moving Preston Clark to third, the most likely replacement for Loy probably won't happen and Tant Shepard, who played some third last season, seems to have moved to the outfield permanently.

Back to the positives. Check out the pitching stats. Yes, they are real. The top five pitchers on the staff -- Austin Wood, Taylor Jungmann, Brandon Workman, Cole Green, and Chance Ruffin -- all have ERA's under 2.00, with the team sitting at a cool 1.41. In fact, the pitching has been so completely dominating that none of those five even allow opponents to bat over .200 againt them, led by Brandon Workman, who allows a paltry .108 batting average to opposing hitters. Is it a fluke? No, though the numbers will undoubtedly climb at least a little bit during the conference season.

That group of five really is that good, with the only weak link on the staff looking like senior left-hander and junkballer Keith Shinaberry. The submariner has a low ERA at 1.93, which is deceptive, as he's given up five runs in 4.2 innings, as many runs as Cole Green has given up in 27.1. His control isn't the issue, as he hasn't walked anyone, the problem is that he isn't fooling anyone, giving up eight hits and two of the five home runs given up by the staff. That's 40% of the home runs in 3.3% of the innings. That's bad. I've been done with Shinaberry for years as anything more than a situational left-hander, which should be the absolute extent of his role. He probably can't single-handedly keep the Longhorns from going deep into the post season, but he could certainly lose an important game in or on the way to Omaha.

Besides Shinaberry, the rest of the pitching staff may be the best staff the Longhorns have put together in a long, long time. And just think, if they fall short this season, all of the major contributors besides Austin Wood will return in 2010. That's gotta be enough to make baseball coaches around the Big 12 openly weep.

As for the 2009 team, the ingredients are there for post season success if the pitching can hold up and the offense can improve over the course of the season. For the first time since 2005, this is a Texas baseball team as Augie Garrido would want it constructed and that is an absoutely beautiful thing for a Texas baseball fan spoiled by the 2002-05 run.

		#0 Bryan Davis Senior Forward 6-9 \| 250 Dallas, Texas Big 12 All-Reserve Team (2009) The Aggies are 27-7 when Davis scores in double figures in his career. He averaged 16.5 points, nine rebounds and three blocks in two NCAA Tournament games, earning CBS Sports player of the game honors in both contests. Davis scored a season-high 21 points with nine rebounds and three blocks in a first-round win against BYU. He scored 12 points with a game-high 10 rebounds in a win against Missouri. Davis scored 15 points with eight rebounds in a win against Texas, and just missed double-doubles at No. 2 Oklahoma (13 points, nine rebounds), at Baylor (13 points, nine rebounds) and at Colorado (nine points and nine rebounds). He matched his season high with 18 points in a win against Oklahoma State, making 6 of 6 from the free-throw line. Davis had 13 points and eight rebounds in a win against Texas Tech; scored a season-high 18 points with 10 rebounds in a win at Rice; had 17 points against Baylor and 16 points against LSU; came off the bench to score 15 points with a season-high 13 rebounds against Kent State, earning SPI Invitational all-tournament honors; returned to the starting lineup against Arizona and had 10 points, making 5 of 6 from the field; scored 15 points with nine rebounds in a win at Alabama; had 11 rebounds vs. SMU; had at least five rebounds in all but four games; ranked third on the team in scoring (10.8), and second in rebounding (6.5) and blocks (46); ranked fifth in the Big 12 in blocks and ninth in rebounding; ranked fourth in the Big 12 in offensive rebounding (2.9) in league play; scored 14 points with seven rebounds against Jackson State and tied his career best with four blocks; and ranks seventh in school history with 96 career blocks.

		#2 Derrek Lewis Junior Guard 6-5 \| 195 Tulsa, Okla. Lewis appeared in five games, averaging 0.6 point per game. He scored a season-high two points against UNC Wilmington, played a season-best five minutes against Jackson State, and also saw action against BYU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

		#3 Derrick Roland Senior Guard 6-4 \| 190 Dallas, Texas Big 12 All-Defense Team (2009) Roland scored 10 points in a first-round NCAA Tournament win against BYU, making a pair of three-pointers. He was named to Big 12 All-Defense Team by league coaches and media panel, and usually guarded the opponent's top scoring guard and in Big 12 play held all but two under his scoring average. League players he guarded made just 38 percent from the field and 32 percent from 3-point range. Roland helped limit Arizona All-American Chase Budinger to just three points on 1 of 6 shooting in the second half of A&M's come-from-behind win. Texas' A.J. Abrams averaged just eight points (6 of 22 shooting, 1 of 9 3-pointers) in two games against Roland. Roland scored 11 points in the first win against Texas Tech and held John Roberson to four second-half points (2 of 10 from field, 0 of 5 3-pointers). Oklahoma State's James Anderson averaged just 9.5 points in two games against Roland. Roland matched his season best with 13 points in a loss at Baylor, scoring 11 in the second half to rally the Aggies from a 14-point deficit. He scored 12 points with four assists in a win at Colorado (8-8 FT); made 25 of his last 29 free throw attempts; played just 10 minutes against McNeese State, after leaving the game early with a bruised elbow, and did not play against North Dakota; scored six points with a season-high six rebounds against Arizona; missed the Kent State game after suffering a sprained foot against Tulsa; and averaged 8.5 points in the last six games. The Aggies are 11-2 in his career when he scores in double figures, and 8-1 on the season.

		#5 Dash Harris Sophomore Guard 6-1 \| 175 Los Angeles, Calif. Harris played in all 34 games and earned a start against Kent State. He ranked second on the team in assists (2.0) and was third in steals (0.7); scored a career-high seven points with three assists against Connecticut in the NCAA Tournament; had six points and made 2 of 2 from 3-point range against Iowa State, his first career 3-pointers; had a monster dunk and made a free throw to complete a key 3-point play and spark a comeback win at Nebraska; scored six points with three assists and two steals in a big win against Missouri; dished out a career-high five assists in consecutive games against Rice and McNeese State; matched his career best with five assists in wins against Texas (zero turnovers) and Texas Tech; scored a career-high six points with four assists and a career-best three steals against North Dakota; handed out at least four assists in seven games; and scored four points against Tulsa. The Aggies were 9-1 when he had at least three assists, with the only loss being to UConn.

		#10 David Loubeau Sophomore Forward 6-8 \| 230 Miami, Fla. Loubeau scored 11 points, making 5 of 5 from the field, against Connecticut in the second round of NCAA Tournament; ranked third on the team in offensive rebounds (58); ranked second among Big 12 freshmen in offensive rebounds in league play (1.9); scored eight points in a win against Missouri; had nine points, all in the second half, with six rebounds in a narrow loss at No. 2 Oklahoma; scored 11 points with eight rebounds in a win against Texas Tech; had 10 points, all in the first half, in a win against Oklahoma State; scored a career-high 12 points with eight rebounds against Kent State in his first career start; also started against Iowa State; had seven points with five rebounds at Kansas, including a game-high four offensive boards; scored six points with a career-best nine rebounds against Tulsa; had eight points at Alabama, helping the Aggies rally from 14-point deficit; scored eight points with eight rebounds against SMU; had eight points and six rebounds against Jackson State, making 6 of 8 from the free-throw line; and tallied six points with six boards against UNC Wilmington. The Aggies were 7-2 when he scored at least eight points, losing only at Oklahoma and to UConn.

		#11 B.J. Holmes Junior Guard 5-11 \| 175 Houston, Texas Big 12 All-Reserve Team (2009) In Big 12 play, Holmes led the league in 3-point percentage (.470) and ranked second in free-throw percentage (.860). He ranked among the top bench players in the Big 12 with an 9.1 scoring average in conference play; had 10 points in a first-round NCAA Tournament win against BYU; scored 11 points (3 of 3 treys) in a win against Texas; scored 10 of his 16 points in the last six minutes in a comeback win at Colorado; had 13 points in a win vs. Missouri; had a career-high 24 points in the first win against Texas Tech, making 6 of 7 (.857) from 3-point range, the fourth-best percentage in school history; made six straight 3s against Tech, tying a Big 12 record; scored 19 points at Oklahoma State, making 4 of 9 3-pointers and 7 of 7 free throws; earned his first career start against Arizona and had a team-high 14 points (3 of 6 3-pointers); made a pair of key free throws in the final minute of the Arizona game and also drew a charge that fouled out Wildcat point guard Nic Wise late in game; scored 16 points with a career-best seven rebounds in a win at Alabama and made a rainbow 3-pointer with two seconds left to send the game to overtime; scored 15 points against Kent State, making 3 of 6 3-pointers and dropping a pair of free throws in the final seconds that helped ice the game; started in place of the injured Derrick Roland against North Dakota and scored 14 points (4-8 3-pointers); missed his first 12 shots of the season; led the team in steals (30); and had only 18 turnovers in 757 minutes (one every 42.1 minutes).

		#14 Andrew Darko Junior Guard 6-1 \| 175 Conroe, Texas Darko appeared in nine games, including three Big 12 games and an NCAA Tournament game against BYU. He scored two points against Jackson State and at Kansas.

		#15 Donald Sloan Senior Guard 6-3 \| 205 Dallas, Texas The Aggies are 39-8 in Sloan's career when he hands out at least three assists, including a 16-3 mark as a junior, and the team is 33-13 when he scores in double figures. He averaged 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists in two NCAA Tournament games; scored 14 points with six rebounds and a season-high seven assists in a first-round win vs. BYU; added 12 points in the second round against Connecticut; had a career-high 22 points against Texas Tech in Big 12 Tournament; scored a team-high 16 points in a win against Missouri; averaged 15.6 points in the last five games; had 14 points and five assists with only one turnover, scoring seven points in the final four minutes of a comeback win at Colorado; had 14 points in a win against Texas; scored 17 points (3 of 4 3-pointers) in a loss at Texas; had 15 points in a win against Oklahoma State; tied his career high with 21 points against Florida A&M, making 10 of 10 free throws; ranked second on the team in scoring (11.8) and led in assists (3.2); scored at least eight points in all but three games; had 13 points and five assists with only one turnover in 35 minutes against Arizona; handed out a season-high seven assists against Kent State with only one turnover; had 16 points with three assists and six rebounds against Stephen F. Austin; made .743 (107-144) from the free-throw line; and had only 56 turnovers in 1,030 minutes this season (one every 18.4 minutes), a marked improvement over his sophomore season, when he averaged one turnover every 13.3 minutes.

		#24 Shawn Schepel Junior Guard 6-3 \| 205 Dallas, Texas Schepel played in six games, including two Big 12 games and an NCAA Tournament game against BYU. He scored one point against Jackson State.

		#31 Chris Chapman Senior Guard 5-11 \| 175 Houston, Texas Chapman appeared in three games, including the Iowa State game in Big 12 play. He scored two points with one rebound against Jackson State.

		#33 Marshall Carrell Junior Forward 6-9 \| 230 Paris, Texas Carrell appeared in four games, including an NCAA Tournament game against BYU. He pulled down two rebounds against Jackson State.

		#45 Nathan Walkup Junior Forward 6-7 \| 210 Houston, Texas Walkup played in all 34 games, starting against UNC Wilmington and Iowa State. He averaged 14 minutes in two NCAA Tournament games; scored a career-high 12 points (3 of 4 3-pointers) in a win against Missouri; had eight points (2 of 2 3-pointers) against Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament; had seven points, making 3 of 3 from the field (including a key second-half 3-pointer) in a win against Texas; also added seven points in a win at Nebraska and had a breakaway dunk that helped spark a comeback; scored six points with three rebounds in just 11 minutes in a narrow loss at No. 2 Oklahoma, including a breakaway dunk; made a game-winning 3-pointer with 20 seconds left against Arizona, his only points of the game; scored seven points in a win at Alabama and made a 3-pointer with 14 seconds left to pull the Aggies within two points, before teammate B.J. Holmes sent the game into overtime with two seconds left; scored a season-high nine points with a career-best 12 rebounds against UNC Wilmington; averaged 3.5 points and 2.5 rebounds; scored seven points with 11 rebounds against Stephen F. Austin and made a key long-range 3-pointer as the shot clock expired in the final minute; scored eight points against Jackson State; and made a 3-pointer with 7:32 left to give A&M a six-point lead at Rice, and it never was a one-possession game again. The Aggies are 14-2 in his career when he scores at least five points.

		#21 Ray Turner Freshman Forward 6-8 \| 220 Houston, Texas Turner was ranked No. 144 nationally and No. 6 in Texas by Rivals.com; averaged 16.5 points and earned district MVP honors as a senior; was named to all-state and all-region teams; played in the THSCA All-Star Game; led his team to a 29-7 record and a district title; posted career game-highs of 35 points, 25 rebounds and 12 blocks; averaged 16 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.5 blocks as a junior; and also was recruited by Baylor, Marquette, Memphis, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico and Oklahoma State.

		#22 Khris Middleton Freshman Forward 6-7 \| 215 North Charleston, S.C. Middleton was rated No. 64 by ESPN.com, which also ranked him as the best shooter among the nation's small forward prospects; averaged 22.4 points and 8.6 rebounds as a prep senior, earning all-state honors and leading his team to the state title game; averaged 21.0 points and 8.6 rebounds as a junior; twice earned state player-of-the-year honors; posted a career-high scoring game of 39 points; and also was recruited by Michigan, South Carolina, St. Joseph's and Virginia Tech.

		#23 Naji Hibbert Freshman Guard 6-5 \| 200 Baltimore, Md. Hibbert was ranked No. 59 nationally by ESPN.com and was rated as a four-star recruit by Rivals.com; named to all-league and all-metro teams for the second straight year after averaging 15.7 points at storied DeMatha Catholic High School; and scored with 1.8 seconds left to lift DeMatha to the state championship. The team finished 31-4 and was ranked No. 4 nationally by ESPN. Hibbert averaged 15.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 2.1 steals per game as a junior; scored 44 points in an AAU game; and also was recruited by Clemson, Marquette, Maryland, Miami, Syracuse and Xavier.

		#25 Jeremy Adams Freshman Guard 6-5 \| 195 Madison, Miss. Adams was rated as the No. 2 player in Mississippi by ESPN after averaging 27.2 points, 7.3 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 4.2 steals as a senior at Madison Central; earned all-state honors; had three 40-point scoring games and earned all-division, all-metro and all-state honors; twice scored 43 points in a game; led his team to three straight district titles; and also was recruited by Alabama, Arkansas, Florida State, Georgetown, Georgia, Kentucky, Miami, Notre Dame and Wake Forest.