SB Nation - Connor Atchley

Re-examining the 2008-9 Losses...

txtwstr7 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:48:32 -0000

...since losses is plural, then you've probably already realized that this post will be about basketball. Last season, Texas went 23-12, which was their most losses since the 2001-2 season, when the team went 22-12. In fact, over Rick Barnes' eleven year career at Texas, the Longhorns have never lost more than 13 games in a season. By and large, last year's team was written off as a disappointment, especially considering the lofty preseason rankings and expectations.

After the jump, we take a closer look at the relative tightness of each of the Longhorns 12 losses last season, which includes some surprising numbers. More importantly, we look at the contributions of the two departing seniors in each of the "close" games from last season.

First off, I still dont have any news over the Stampede passes. It boggles my mind that we are 2.5 weeks away from the season, and the e-mail still hasnt gone out. I could--and perhaps should--write an entire column about the complete, utter, and entire lack of hype generated over this basketball season around campus. I really dont get it...

Second, I'm not going to analyze the contributions of Harrison Smith, since, well...it was Harrison Smith. With that in mind, let's get to work...

Due to a combination of factors--including poor shooting, decent defense, and occasionally miserable sets--Texas had the frustrating tendency to play up or down to its competition last season. This is reflected by looking at each of the twelve losses and close victories from last season. Here are the "high points" of each loss, which reflect the closest point at the latest portion of the game. I think you might be surprised by the closeness of some of the losses.

1) Notre Dame: Down 81-80 when time expired.

2) Michigan State: Down 65-63 with one second left

3) Arkansas: Down 65-62 with seven seconds left

4) OU: Down 54-50 with 10:00 to go-then got absolutely steamrolled

5) Kansas State: Down 83-81 with seven seconds left in OT

6) Missouri: Tied 65-65 with six seconds left

7) Nebraska: Down 58-55 when time expired

8) A&M: Down 71-64 with 2:15 left-then got absolutely steamrolled

9) OSU: Down 60-57 with 1:25 left

10) KU: Down 73-71 with 3:30 left-then got absolutely steamrolled

11) Baylor: Down 72-70 with 15 seconds left

12) Duke : Down 72-69 with 7 seconds left

If you take out the outliers against OU/A&M/KU, which were actually closer than I remembered, the tightness of Texas' other nine losses becomes crystal clear:

1) Notre Dame: Down 81-80 when time expired.

2) Michigan State: Down 65-63 with one second left

3) Arkansas: Down 65-62 with seven seconds left

4) Kansas State: Down 83-81 with seven seconds left in OT

5) Missouri: Tied 65-65 with six seconds left

6) Nebraska: Down 58-55 when time expired

7) OSU: Down 60-57 with 1:25 left

8) Baylor: Down 72-70 with 15 seconds left

9) Duke: Down 72-69 with 7 seconds left

Essentially:

1) In each of these nine losses, Texas was within three points of their opponent with less than 1:30 to go.

2) In eight of these nine losses, Texas was within three points with less than sixteen seconds to go.

3) In seven of these nine losses, Texas was within three points with less than ten seconds to go.

I can already hear everyone explaining how this doesn’t take into account how many close games Texas WON last season, so I've also compiled a list of those wins as well. To be generous, I included every victory in which a UT opponent got within six points in the last two minutes of the game. This list is actually a little bit longer than I remembered:

1) UCLA: Up 65-61 with 2:00 left-UCLA doesn't score again

2) Wisconsin: Up 70-69 with 30 seconds left-Wisconsin doesn't score again

3) Baylor: Up 74-72 with 49 seconds left-Baylor doesn't score again

4) Colorado: UT wins 85-76 in OT

5) OU: Up 69-68 with 20 seconds left -OU doesn't score again

6) Tech: Up 85-81 with 30 seconds left-Tech doesn't score again

7) KSU: Up 61-58 when time expired

None of Texas’ other 16 wins broke this threshold, and the UCLA and Tech games barely made it. If we used tighter criteria, then Texas had only four victories—out of 23—where their opponents were within three points in the final 30 seconds.

However, the main point of this post isn’t to magnify how Texas could or should have won more games last season. Instead, I wanted to analyze the performances of AJ Abrams and Connor Atchley in each of our losses and "close" victories in order to see if they played a major factor in the outcome.

Let's go to a chart of all the losses and close wins:

Opponent	AJ Abrams	Connor Atchley
Notre Dame (L)	23 points (8/27 shooting)	7 points and 7 rebounds
Michigan State (L)	*8 points (3/10 shooting)*	8 points and 5 rebounds
Arkansas (L)	7 points (3/16 shooting)	DNP
OU (L)	*22 points (8/27 shooting)*	4 points and 4 rebounds
Kansas State (L)	15 points (5-21 shooting)	1 point and 3 rebounds
Mizzou (L)	11 points (4-9 shooting)	2 points and 5 rebounds
Nebraska (L)	16 points (6/15 shooting)	3 points and 3 rebounds
A&M (L)	*7 points (3/12 shooting)*	*3 points and 1 rebound*
OSU (L)	*9 points (3/15 shooting)*	*0 points and 5 rebounds*
Kansas (L)	*10 points (2/11 shooting)*	*2 points and 2 rebounds*
Baylor (L)	20 points (8/17 shooting)	5 points and 3 rebounds
Duke (L)	17 points (5/13 shooting)	0 points and 1 rebound
UCLA (W)	31 points (9/18 shooting)	6 points and 4 rebounds
Wisconsin (W)	21 points (8/21 shooting)	7 points and 2 rebounds
Baylor (W)	19 points (7/12 shooting)	4 points and 2 rebounds
Colorado (W)	29 points (11/19 shooting)	2 points and 3 rebounds
OU (W)	23 points (8/17 shooting)	5 points and 2 rebounds
Tech (W)	24 points (6/13 shooting)	5 points and 2 rebounds
Kansas State (W)	6 points (2/4 shooting)	0 points and 1 rebound

While this simplistic chart doesnt take into account other factors such as defense and passing, I think it points out a few interesting things.

1) In many of its seven close wins last season, Texas rode the backs of its two seniors on the offensive end. With the exception of the KSU and Baylor games, Abrams and Atchley combined to score at least 28 points in each of the other five victories. And, in the Baylor game, they combined to score a third of our points.

2) Conversely, in many of the close losses, a lot of the blame can be squarely pointed at AJ Abrams. In our twelve losses, AJ was a disaster in eight of them. I dont think this breaks a ton of new ground, but it shows that AJ didnt "keep us in" a lot of the games we lost last season. In fact, you can only make the case that he helped keep it close for only 3 (NU, BU, Duke) of our 12 losses last season.

3) Ultimately, I think it is very interesting that Abrams' performance--good or bad--directly correlated to the outcome in 14 of the 19 games reflected in the chart. While we've already shown that he didnt help "keep it close" in most of our losses, the converse point is that the team also struggled to win close games when he was playing poorly. In fact, the only close victory following a poor performance by Abrams was the game in the Big 12 Tournament against Kansas State.

Conclusion: I think fans have forgotten the tightness of most of our losses last season and the centrality of the role of AJ Abrams in the outcome of many games. The most important thing that I gleaned from re-examining last season was how close Texas was to becoming an elite team. It's amazing that, in 10 of their 12 losses, Texas was within three points of their opponent coming out of the last TV timeout. The 23-12 record could have easily flipped to 26-9 (or better) if J'Covan Brown would have made it to campus. The roster this season will have no such shortage of shooters. However, any mention of the wouldacouldashoulda games from last season must also acknowledge that AJ Abrams was the reason we won several of our close games.

Hook 'Em!

Workouts, Workouts, Workouts Press Clippings

Zach B — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:07:24 -0000

The NBA Draft workouts have seemingly slowed to an absolute crawl. I can't imagine how Josh, Jeremy and the rest of the guys feel; I'm tired of it and I haven't even been working out! Today is a pretty busy day for the draft prospects. Here is the look at today's Gonzaga news...

Hoops Addict " Exclusive Interview With Austin Daye

Yesterday Austin worked out with the Toronto Raptors and while any news about the workout is hard to come across we were able to find this video interview. Much like me, he seems to be getting tired of the workout process and the interviews. He talks about his father's influence once again, having a good support base around him, and what he thinks he can bring to the Toronto Raptors. He also discusses whether or not he reads the mock drafts and all that stuff put out by us silly bloggers. Toronto is one of the teams that really likes Austin and has the need for a wing like him. They've got the eighth selection but they could easily trade back into the middle of the first to grab him.

Guards Lawson, McKee to work out for Wizards -- baltimoresun.com

It's a busy day for the rest of the Gonzaga draft hopefuls as the other three will be working out along the Eastern seaboard hoping to impress the scouts. In Washington, Jeremy Pargo and Josh Heytvelt will workout together for the Wizards. The Wiz have the fifth and 32nd pick in the upcoming NBA Draft so unless their are a ton of injuries in the next few weeks, I wouldn't expect either of these Zags to land in Washington. Participating with Josh and Jeremy are Ty Lawson, Coppin State's Tywain McKee, USC's Taj Gibson, and Patrick Beverly of Arkansas fame.

ZAGSBLOG " Levance to Work out for Knicks

Their aren't many draft prospects hotter right now than Gonzaga's Micah Downs. Every report that we have come across regarding the former Gonzaga wing has been sensational. Previously thought to be undrafted, Micah has caused some stirs on draft boards and could squeeze his way into the second round. He looks to impress Mike D'Antoni today as he takes part in the New York Knicks workout. Working out along with Micah is a bunch of potential second round to undrafted prospects. Headlining the field is Pitt's Levance Fields, Texas' Connor Atchley, Georgia Tech's Alade Aminu (who is a likely second rounder), and Talladega's Jeral Davis.

Four Bulldogs Selected In Major League Baseball Draft - GONZAGA OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE

Three links of draft workouts is about all I can handle for one day anymore. Gonzaga had a busy day yesterday in the Major League Baseball drat as four Zags were selected. Heading the class was junior catcher Tyson Van Winkle, who was selected 10th by Diamondbacks. He was followed soon after by senior pitcher Steven Ames in 17th by the Los Angeles Dodgers, then Matt Fields in 22nd by the Toronto Blue Jays and lastly senior slugger Ryan Wiegand in 25th by the Tampa Bay Rays. Hopefully all four get signed on and get a chance at making it all the way to the bigs

Rivals.com Basketball Recruiting - Whispers: USC program crumbling

Nick Johnson, one of the top combo guards in the Class of 2011, has picked up offers from Arizona, Georgia, Oregon State and Washington to go along with his previous offer from Arizona State.

We had a fan post a couple days ago asking about the status of Nick Johnson, a shooting guard from Arizona and I think I'm ready to call Gonzaga's courtship of him over. While Johnson is a tremendous prospect and will be one of the top players in the 2011 class, Mark Few and the staff have plenty of kids to pick and choose from in their own backyard. Brett Kingma and Gary Bell are both fantastic guard options from the Western side of the state and Portland's Kyle Wiltjer would be a fantastic get at power forward. Like EDZ said in the fanpost, don't expect Nick to get out of Arizona and the farthest North I expect him to get would be UCLA.

2008-09 Texas Basketball Season Wrap

Peter Bean — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 12:00:10 -0000

In what may be my last substantial post for the next six weeks, a smattering of thoughts on the loss to Duke, the season's end, and what's ahead.

Apologies this is late coming, but it's damn difficult to type when Elliot Williams is handchecking you like John Stockton on androstenedione. I'm just sayin'.

Even had the game's final 90 seconds been without officiating controversy, the coaches, players, and fans of both teams should have been disgusted with the officials for their choppy, burdensome, and inconsistent work throughout the contest.

The operative word in the preceding, of course, is 'should'... In reality, it's difficult to imagine Coach K, his players, or Duke fans displeased with any ~~scrum~~ game that winds up defined by endless whistles, to be decided by close calls and free throw shooting.

All that said, I'd hardly urge Texas fans to channel their inner Mike Leach in an effort to file this loss in the C's for Conspiracy. The officials ruined the flow of the game and did Texas no favors, but on the list of reasons the 'Horns lost, officiating sits comfortably below a sizable list of factors within their control, including at least the following six:

Damion James' 6 turnovers, including three (literally) inexplicable passes even Matt Stafford would have refrained from attempting.
Dogus Balbay neutering his entire offensive value by tentatively playing to avoid mistakes rather than attacing to create plays.
A total of 9 missed free throws, including 6 in the second half.
The inability of Connor Atchley or Justin Mason to have any positive impact on the game.
Gary Johnson playing with as much self-control and maturity as a three week-old puppy. (Seriously, Todd Wright needs to give him two Xanax prior to every tip.)
The sad ease with which Texas' impotent perimeter shooting, combined with their substandard post-entry strategies, allowed the substantially undersized Blue Devils to limit the impact of Big Sexy.

Safe to say Rick Barnes did not read my game preview, in which I urged Texas (1) to gameplan around limiting Duke's freebie points at the line (concurrently protecting our foul situation), in large part by (2) not trying to pressure Gerald Henderson on ball 22+ feet from the basket. Unfortunately, Barnes went for the perimeter pressure, playing right into Duke's strengths while magnifying Texas' own weaknesses and exposure to fouls. It hurt my basketball soul watching Juston Mason repeatedly try to pressure and contain Henderson at or beyond the three point line, only to be dusted on the dribble time and again -- the end result of each a great look at/near the rim for Henderson or, predictably, free throws.

It was a trifecta of fail: First, in allowing Henderson to fire free as a slasher and playmaker, the strategy helped Duke's only explosive offensive weapon -- who, don't forget, is prone to disappear if not allowed a dribble drive game -- remain an active, engaged focal point of an otherwise pedestrian Duke offense; Second, it paved Henderson's way to higher percentage looks near the basket and at the charity stripe. And third, it led Texas to precisely the foul issues it could least afford. Though I understand what Barnes was hoping to do, the game as it unfolded demonstrated exactly why I thought it was the wrong defensive tactic.

In the end, the final loss was a perfect microcosm of Texas' season story, as the 'Horns managed to encapsulate in one performance each of their various M.O.'s throughout the up-and-down year: They proved themselves perfectly capable of beating a quality team... Though they nearly succeeded on the backs of two standout performances, in the end it wasn't enough to overcome a half dozen forgettable ones... And finally, Texas' own fundamental lapses in execution were fatal in a close game to the final buzzer.

AJ Abrams has had higher scoring games throughout his Texas career, but his all-around excellent play against Duke elevates the performance to or near the top of his greatest games list. As he battled to help keep afloat a stagnant Texas offense not able to get Pittman the ball in post position, each of Abrams' 17 points were hard earned. Elsewhere, on the defensive end his pick pocket of Scheyer at midcourt (one of two steals on the night) was a beautiful, perfectly timed, veteran move. More still, Abrams' 5 rebounds reflected well the effort with which he played for all 40 minutes, while both of his assists were highlight reel, make-you-holler dimes which came at crucial junctures of the game when Texas desperately needed to score. Though we all know that Abrams' poor performances often had the capacity to be especially grating for fans to watch, when all things are considered, there's no question AJ Abrams was a very good, four-year, record-setting player who contributed a lot more to dozens of Longhorns wins than his bad nights did cost the team losses. Maybe best of all, Abrams overcame the unfortunate, self-created string of summer distractions to become a team-oriented leader who made the best of an intensely challenging senior year. Hook 'em.

Ending on a far less satisfying note was the career of Connor Atchley, his final shot in burnt orange -- an uncontested three that missed -- all too fitting a cap for what was a season-long struggle to regain his junior year form. At this point, it'd just be cruel and unfair to speculate what may have gone wrong -- and especially so considering the intensive work Atchley put in as a player, culminating in his surprise development into a critical piece of the '08 Elite Eight team. By all accounts he's a good kid and a ferocious, dedicated worker. And in gratefully saluting Atchley's Texas career by recalling my favorite memory of a play he made, I'm reminded it doesn't seem like all that long ago when he hit that unforgettable three pointer to send Texas to double overtime in Stillwater. Hook 'em.

Though it's tough to get too down on a player who started all 35 games, producing 15.4 points and 9.2 rebounds in 29.5 minutes per game, it really was discouraging that so many of Damion James' complementary skills (dribbling, perimeter shooting, unforced turnovers, shot selection, situational understanding) continued to linger so far behind his core skill set as a rebounder and 12-feet-and-in scorer. Unfortunately, the persistence of those problems seems as much as anything to be related manifestations of James' incredibly poor basketball instincts & on-court intelligence. Ultimately, if he wants to overcome those deficiencies and have a chance at playing in the NBA, he's going to have to continue working harder than everyone else. James hasn't yet announced whether or not he'll return to work on his game as a senior at Texas.

That was a tough way for Big Sexy to end his breakthrough junior season, but if he spends this offseason working on conditioning and polish as hard as he has in previous ones... by the time Texas tips its first game next November he'll have his very own suffix: Dexter Pittman, Preseason First Team All Big 12. And if anyone's paying proper attention, among those receiving All American attention, as well.

What on Earth are we to make of Varez Ward stepping into the spotlight of a season elimination game? On the downside, it reinforced just how bogged down Texas was trying to run the offense through Balbay with no shooters on the floor. But on the positive side it reinforces one of Varez Ward's greatest strengths as a basketball player, and which I happened to highlight a month ago in the Oklahoma game preview, calling for Ward to be the primary defensive player assigned to Willie Warren:

Instead, I think this is an assignment with WARD, V. painted all over it. He definitely gives up a couple inches and fifteen pounds to Warren, but Ward is like one of those MMA fighters -- as pound-for-pound strong and athletic as they come. More than that, he's absolutely fearless in that way you can't teach a kid. He doesn't mind a physical game/lots of contact, he'll gladly play perimeter D or mix it up in the paint, and he's a full-fledged gamer who -- it's been obvious all season -- seeks out challenges. I want to see him take on this one.

Yup, that still sounds about right to me... For Ward, obviously, but also the point that such a fearless, challenge-seeking mindset is not one easily coached into a player. You either got it or you don't, and though no one should invest in the fool's gold of Ward as the focal point first option of next year's offense, he established himself as a tremendously valuable and versatile asset:

He's a truly top-top-tier athlete.
His on-court instincts are as natural as Damion James' are wholly absent.
He isn't afraid -- of physical play, of a challenge, of pressure, of making a mistake.
Correspondingly, he wants the toughest assignments, the most pressure, etc. Total fearlessness, confidence, and a short memory.
And finally, he's a smooth, natural playmaker. While his too-high 44 turnovers reflect his inexperience, I wish I had a tape of each one so I could point out how many were almost-good ideas that didn't quite work out, but which I appreciated as attempts to make the kinds of plays that you want a player to be able to see developing.

Is it me, or did Dogus Balbay's freshman season mimic the career arc of Connor Athcley? Very little playing time and modest expectations at first, followed by an up-and-down learning/transition period of increased usage, leading to an exciting peak at the three-quarters mark, followed by a truly befuddling letdown at the very end. Weird....

Coincidental oddities aside, Balbay was cruising right along through the end of the regular season before the trouble started in the Big 12 quarterfinals with his five turnovers against the athletic pressure guards of Kansas State. Barnes yanked him and gave Balbay a few earfuls worth of criticism to think about. Though a day later against Baylor Balbay would play well during his 23 minutes of floor time, Barnes still appeared to be keeping him on a short leash, sitting him a full 10:30 minutes during the second half. Whatever the various issues displeasing Barnes, from that point on Balbay's confidence was visibly shaken. He played very tentatively against Minnesota -- like a player trying to avoid mistakes instead of make plays -- then appeared to lose whatever offensive aggressiveness he'd mustered for Duke after missing a point blank lay up.

Though when this season began few were as immediately bullish as I was about about Dogus Balbay, the end of this season made me realize it was possible that at least some of my enthusiasm may have beenparticularized -- tied to what I felt confident Dogus could do for this year's point guard-less squad. But what about next year, when Jai Lucas -- a nominal point guard with a legitimate scoring game -- arrives? It really depends what kinds of improvements Balbay's capable of developing in one offseason, and if you're of the opinion what we saw this year is more or less what Balbay will be next year, it seems like he'd slide into platoon/role player duties, utilized primarily as an on-ball defensive specialist and/or change of look/rest for Lucas.

That may be the most likely outcome, but even if not it's at least as likely as the more optimistic alternative (towards which I lean): I see as attainable substantial growth in Balbay himself, further magnified thanks to the arrival and impact of his new teammates. Whereas this year a dribbling Balbay stared down from the top of the key wondering how to attack a glob of defensive bodies all packed in the paint, next year's reinforcements will render completely unviable a similar defensive strategy. That's good news for Balbay, who has yet to encounter a defender he can't laser by on the dribble. Next year, he'll have more space to do just that, the awaiting gob of defensive bodies replaced by an open rim or a dunking Dexter.

And really, if you extend the preceding thought to its logical conclusion, the good news isn't exclusively Balbay's to enjoy. Varez Ward isn't as lightning fast as Dogus with the ball in his hands (no one is), but he's every bit the same ridiculous athlete with more than enough ability and know-how to get to the rim for a score, foul, or dump off. (It'll take a lot better defender than John Scheyer, that much we know.) And moving beyond Ward, not only should the reach of the good news be a boon to every returning Longhorn, but also -- I think it's fair to say -- Rick Barnes.

Eleven years in, Texas hoops junkies are well aware of what Barnes does and doesn't do well (the strengths far outstripping the weaknesses), the reality being he's not the first coach you'd choose to install a halfcourt offense for the personnel he had on hand this past season. Barnes wants to run (and successfully recruits to be able to execute) a fluid offense based on spacing principles, ball screens, and dribble penetration. Without the right personnel capable of capitalizing on the advantages on which the system depends, it's little more than what Jimmy Dykes in 2007-08 (wrongly) disparaged as "a bunch of random ball screens."

Dykes missed the mark because with the right personnel (several versatile, high-caliber offensive players or, if the point guard is elite enough even just one), the "random ball screen offense" is very much a legitimate, effective, and viable offensive system based on sound principles. Not only that, but I'm tempted to argue that the impact on college hoops of the NBA's recently enacted age-limit rule may soon make dribble drive offensive principles (if they aren't already) comparable to spread offensive principles in college football. And if, as most believe, the NBA soon bumps its age limit up again, the stampede of coaches rushing to incorporate dribble drive offenses will come sooner rather than later. And that's one of the biggest reasons I'm quick to call myopic those who criticize Rick Barnes on these grounds. It's completely backwards -- we should be glad he's been an early adopter.

Looking ahead, in case you'd forgotten about Texas' #2-ranked incoming recruiting class, a few links to get you up to speed:

Big Roy's 'Recruiting Spotlights' on: Jordan Hamilton, Avery Bradley 1, Bradley 2, Shawn Williams, Jai Lucas (transfer from Florida)
Barking Carnival's Trips Right on the incoming class

And finally, a housekeeping note: Same as last year, my law exams fall in the same week as the football annual must go off to the press for printing. And like last year, the reality of the insane volume of work in front of me has politely waited for hoops to end before crashing down on me. But here we are, and something's gotta give if it's all gonna get done, so I don't expect to be writing much around here during this mad sprint to the finish. Dimecoverage will be around Mondays and Thursdays, while Big Roy's going to be the main man bringing daily doses of his always-excellent news and analysis. Last but not least -- by all means, please take things into your own hands. Keep the Fan Posts lively and I'll be on the look out for good stuff to bump over to run down the middle column.

Once again, it was a damn fun season -- thanks to all (okay, most) who chose to spend it here with us. Same time and place next year.

2008-2009 Longhorns Good But Never Great

awiggo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 20:05:01 -0000

The Texas Longhorns are done for the season. But why? My first reaction at the end of last night’s game was the same as many of yours—blame the refs. We got robbed! Duke got all the calls, all the bounces, all the breaks, etc. Upon further reflection, whistles were not the reason that we lost in the second round to Duke. In fact, I thought the Duke loss was a near perfect manifestation of the entire season.

The same questions we had about this team before the season were never answered. The same warts that we saw in conference play appeared again in Greensboro. And the same players basically played the same way in the NCAA tournament that they had all season.

I don’t want this to be an overly negative post and I promise another post with all the positive things this team did over the course of the season. But I think it is important to single out the reasons why this Texas team was good but never great.

No Reliable Point Guard
Sure, Dogus Balbay came on late in the season and showed on many occasions that he could lead the team. But in pressure situations, the lack of true point guard who could pressure a defense with passing and scoring hurt the ‘Horns. How many times this year did you write in the comment section that you missed DJ Augustin? How many times did you and your fellow basketball lovers curiously question where this team would be had Augustin elected to stay another year? I know that I did plenty of times just as I did after TJ Ford left after his sophomore year.

Rick Barnes started the year with AJ Abrams at the point but that experiment was over before the team returned from Maui. Abrams could not create off the dribble for others and is much better in catch-and-shoot situations than firing off the dribble. Then, we put the ball in Justin Mason’s hands. This worked fine, for the most part, and Mason even filled up the stat sheet with five, six, and seven assist games against just a turnover or two for the better part of the middle of the season. But Mason’s defense began to slip and opponents began to figure out that Justin couldn’t hit the backboard, let alone sink a jumper, from more than 15 feet. So, the Mason era ended and Dogus Balbay took over.

Again, Texas fans were struck with instant positive results. Dogus is incredibly quick off the dribble, a remarkable athlete, and a more than capable passer with either hand. Unfortunately, Dogus was not a pass first-shoot second leader like he had been billed since his arrival in Austin. Balbay is a past-first, drive-second, pass-third, shoot-never point guard. As opponents figured out that Balbay had never seen one of his jumpers fall through the hoop, a one man zone became the defense of choice for Big XII opponents down the stretch. Never was this more apparent than at Oklahoma State when Terrel Harris began to double team Dexter Pittman in the post even when his man, Balbay, had the ball at the top of the key.

Our point guard by committee, like our team, was serviceable but never great. It could be argued that a fourth part of this committee was forced to emerge last night as Varez Ward more than earned his playing time with a gutty, attack the basket 16 point performance over and around the slower Duke defenders. I would remiss unless I pointed out that the need for Ward to assume the ball handling duties full-time would not have been needed if it wasn’t for the below average performance by Balbay. Take a look at his line last night: 32 minutes, 2 points, 3 rebounds, 0 assists and 4 turnovers. It is hard to be a dynamic offensive team when your point guard plays nearly the entire game and fails to record a single assist.

No Perimeter Shooting
Other than AJ, this team can’t shoot from outside the lane. Please don’t point out Damion James’ occasional three-pointer or Gary Johnson’s 16 foot jumper. Fool’s gold, both of them. Last night, Texas shot 3-of-12 from behind the arc. On the season, Texas shot 32.8% from three, good for 234th best in the country (Ken Pomeroy). Of 344 Division I teams, shot ranked 321st in the country in percentage of points scored from behind the arc. Texas got just 19% of all points from deep.

I am not advocating that Texas needed to be a three point shooting team. They did not. Before the season, the strength of this team appeared to be Dexter Pittman, Gary Johnson, Alexis Wangmene, and Damion James scoring in the paint. Texas did, however, need to present at least the threat of an outside shot so that those players wouldn’t be defended with two players before they got the ball and three players after.

Texas has never been a great team at feeding the post. To me, this is a weakness that has been present throughout the Rick Barnes era. This year, though, the problem wasn’t the skill of actually feeding the post as much as it was that there was little to no room to do so. If defenders aren’t worried about getting torched by perimeter jumpers, they naturally sag off the offensive player to both encourage long jump shots and to more easily eliminate driving angles. That is exactly what happened this season as defenses would have paid every Texas perimeter player, except AJ Abrams, to shoot jumps shots.

Shaky Free Throw Shooting
Texas shot 16-of-25 (64%) from the free throw stripe against Duke. Duke shot 21-of-27 (78%) from the free throw stripe against Texas. Also, the Longhorns were just 8-of-14 (57%) in the second half. Imagine how different this game would have been had Texas sank a few more free throws. Imagine how many close games would have gone differently had Texas not shot just 66.8% from the line as a team. Would we have won another conference game, finished alone in fourth in the Big XII, and maybe earned a better seed in the NCAAs? Maybe. We probably would have defeated Duke in their own backyard and been preparing for a rematch with Villanova as I write this. Regardless of how the calls went down the stretch, the team that took advantage of their trips to the line is still in the tournament while the team that left points at the stripe has been eliminated.

No Go-to Scorer
At one point early in the season, I wrote that we didn’t have a go-to scorer like Augustin, Durant, Tucker, or Ford. I questioned where Barnes would go in a final possession with the game on the line—AJ on the baseline or James in the high post or Dexter on the low block or our point guard of the evening off the dribble. I didn’t know then, and I still don’t know now.

Down two last night to Duke, Damion James called for, received, and shot a baseline three pointer that would have given Texas a one point lead with less than a minute to go. It was a good shot, but was it the best shot? Was a James jump shot our go-to-play? Abrams is certainly our most consistent and best shooter but he has been blanketed all of 2009 and cannot create his own shot. Dexter is an offensive force but can’t score unless he is somehow fed the ball. Balbay or Ward off the dribble are options as well. The point is that, unlike in previous seasons with a future NBA lottery pick in burnt orange, Texas lacked a go to player all season long.

Disappearance of Connor Atchley and Justin Mason
Did DJ Augustin really make that big a difference in the games of these two upperclassmen? Last night, Connor played six minutes, failed to score a single point in his final game as a Longhorn, and grabbed just one rebound. Justin Mason wasn’t much better (22 minutes, three points, one rebound, two assists, and two turnovers), and Barnes had so little confidence in him that he chose to leave Balbay in the game after moving Ward to the point, even though Dogus was not a threat to score at all.

Connor was in Austin for five years and has a remarkable junior season, but his regression this season was a big reason for the offensive stagnation, as were Mason’s struggles on both ends of the court.

All in all, this was a good but never great basketball team. The loss of Alexis Wangmene hurt on both ends, the inability to sink perimeter jump shots killed our offensive spacing, and the need to go small with three guards gave back some of our ability to rebound and defend at an elite level. As I wrote last night, I am proud of this team. They were certainly flawed in many areas but fought hard all season long and came within a bounce or two of the Sweet 16.

Future posts will look at the positives from the 2008-09 campaign, Damion James’ NBA decision, and in addition to the incoming freshman and Jai Lucas, what our existing players need to improve on to take this team back to the Final Four.

Texas Comes Up Short in Greensboro, Ends Season

awiggo — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 04:09:51 -0000

#7 Texas fell, 74-69, to #2 Duke in the second round of the East Regional in a hard fought, entertaining, and even match up. The Blue Devils will move on to face #3 Villanova in the Sweet 16 in Boston, while the Texas Longhorns' season officially ends at 23-12.

The Longhorns were in it until the final minute despite 15 turnovers, shaky foul shooting, and a failure to exploit Duke in the post. It was not to be though. A great play by Jon Scheyer, mostly clutch free throw shooting by Duke, and some Blue Devil bounces all helped send Coach K's team to the next round.

There will be plenty of time for analysis of the season, a closer look at Damion James' NBA decision, and projections for next year's club.

However, use this thread for your post game thoughts and favorite memories of seniors AJ Abrams and Connor Atchley. I've said this many times throughout this season, this is an offensively limited club but also a team with real heart and plenty of character.

Despite the loss, I've never been prouder.

2009 NCAA Bracket Breakdown: East Region

WakeJake — Wed, 18 Mar 2009 02:03:14 -0000

Predicted Winning Teams in Bold

First Round

(1) Pittsburgh vs (16) East Tennessee State - In this matchup between teams rated 6 and 113 in the Pomeroy ratings, the Panthers should dominate from the opening tip. We all know that a 16 has never beaten a 1 and that's not going to be the case here either.

(8) Oklahoma State vs. (9) Tennessee - Honestly, Tennessee is just not a good basketball team. They are 103rd in FG percentage offense and 223rd in FG percentage defense. Oklahoma State is a bad defensive team, but they make up for it by being solid on offense. The Cowboys are also 25th in the nation in three point percentage and Tennessee does not appear to guard anyone outside the arc.

(5) Florida State vs. (12) Wisconsin - This looks like a promising upset pick here because of the big name in the 12 slot and the yearly occurrence of this upset taking place, but I'm not falling for it. This game may end up with a final score of 28-24 because FSU emphasizes defense and Wisconsin plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation. Bob Ryan is a great coach and this game will come down to the wire, but I think the height of Florida State and the senior leadership of Toney Douglas will lead the Seminoles to victory.

(4) Xavier vs. (13) Portland State - Xavier is a top 50 team on both ends of the floor according to KenPom while Portland State is 200th in defense. I'm all chalk so far and this is not going to be an upset either.

(6) UCLA vs. (11) VCU - VCU is paced by PG Eric Maynor who led the Rams to a tournament win over Duke two years ago. On the other hand, UCLA has been to the Final Four three straight years and still has the leadership of Collison and Shipp from those teams. UCLA is a very solid six seed that I'm sure VCU was disappointed to draw after earning an 11 seed. This may be a popular upset pick too, but I do not think Collison will allow UCLA to get bounced that early.

(3) Villanova vs. (14) American - Not much to see here. I'm proud to be an American, but not that proud.

(7) Texas vs. (10) Minnesota - The emergence of Texas center Dexter Pittman could be a big story in this region. The big fella had a couple huge games in the Big 12 tournament and will look to help A.J. Abrams and Damien James make a run in the NCAA tournament. Tubby Smith did a good job getting the Gophers back to the tournament, but their turnover woes and youth in the paint may stop them from getting a win in the first round.

(2) Duke vs.(15) Binghamton - Tony Kornhesier's alma mater will look to shock the world here, but this disciplined Duke team will not let that happen.

Second Round

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (8) Oklahoma State - If Oklahoma State is hitting their three point shots, they could make this one interesting. However, the beastliness of DeJuan Blair and the vastly underrated Sam Young will carry the Panthers to the Sweet 16.

(5) Florida St. vs. (4) Xavier - As an ACC homer, I think the Noles are hungry and take this one. This is a matchup of the tallest team in the nation and the 21st tallest team in the nation. I do not think Xavier is used to playing this kind of talented height in the Atlantic 10 and All-ACC point guard Toney Douglas will be looking to end his career with a bang.

(6) UCLA vs. (3) Villanova - This is without a doubt one of the premier potential matchups in the second round. UCLA is 3rd in the nation in offensive efficiency and, as I explained earlier, has major tournament experience even though a few of their key players are freshmen. VIllanova has some dynamite guards as always in Reynolds, Stokes and Fisher to go along with Dante Cunningham in the paint. I just have the feeling that Ben Howland will outduel Jay Wright and the Bruins will march to the Sweet 16.

(7) Texas vs. (2) Duke - If you would have told me this was a second round tournament game in November, I would have thought Duke really dropped off. Instead, Texas is the one that had a disappointing season behind an inconsistent A.J. Abrams. This game will likely come down to three point shooting, as Duke loves the outside shot and Abrams is never shy. However, if Texas is disciplined they should be able to take advantage of Duke's inferior height. Pittman, James, Johnson and Atchley have the length and muscle to bother the Blue Devils inside. In the end, I see Abrams' eyes lighting up as the nation pulls for him against Duke and Texas advances. It was about time for me to go out on a limb anyway, right?

Sweet Sixteen

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (5) FSU - Again, this would be a grind-it-out defensive matchup. While the Seminoles would likely make a game of it, they just do not have enough offensive weapons to keep up with Pitt. Blair would have more trouble with Alibi, Reid, Gibson and Singleton than in previous rounds, but Young and Fields pick up the slack and advance.

(6) UCLA vs. (7) Texas - As I have discussed earlier, KenPom loves the Bruins and I love their experience. On the other hand, Texas has the ability to be really good and is still trying to adjust to the loss of D.J. Augustin, as evidenced by their results on the season. I keep telling myself that Texas is a bad pick, but I just cannot resist. Connor Atchely blocks a Collison shot at the buzzer and the Longhorns shock the nation as they play to their potential and advance to the Elite Eight.

Elite Eight

(1) Pittsburgh vs. (7) Texas - The run ends here for Rick Barnes' club. Pitt is too well-balanced and talented for the Longhorns. Levance Fields is a big game player and leads this tough Pitt team to the Final Four.

Final Four Pick - Pittsburgh

Stay tuned for Blogger So Dear's breakdown of the West and Midwest on Wednesday!

BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.09.09 (Postseason Awards Edition)

BracketCat — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 05:00:11 -0000

Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 3.8.2009 at 4:37 AM CST)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks	14	2	25	6
No. 2 seed Oklahoma Sooners	13	3	27	4
No. 3 seed Missouri Tigers	12	4	25	6
No. 4 seed Kansas State Wildcats	9	7	21	10
No. 5 seed Texas Longhorns	9	7	20	10
No. 6 seed Texas A&M Aggies	9	7	23	8
No. 7 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys	9	7	20	10
No. 8 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers	8	8	18	11
No. 9 seed Baylor Bears	5	11	17	13
No. 10 seed Iowa State Cyclones	4	12	15	16
No. 11 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders	3	13	13	18
No. 12 seed Colorado Buffaloes	1	15	9	21

It's Big 12 Tournament time! Let the games begin!

Big 12 Outlook will morph a bit this week. In this edition, I take a look at the overall predictive performance for the 2009 conference season and hand out my end-of-season awards. Later in the week, Outlook will project tournament outcomes based on current available information.

There will be a Big 12 Outlook posted every morning of the tournament, which I may or may not update throughout the day with game outcomes. It depends on how busy I am at work. However, I do hope the comments section on said entries will function as a live discussion for the BOTC community, much as our game threads do already.

	Seed	Record	RPI	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Streak	Best Win*	Worst Loss*	Coach
Kansas	1	14-2	8	10	10	W-1	Missouri	UMass	Bill Self
Oklahoma	2	13-3	4	18	8	W-1	Purdue	Arkansas	Jeff Capel
Missouri	3	12-4	11	11	12	L-1	Kansas	Nebraska	Mike Anderson
Kansas State	4	9-7	77	41	44	W-1	Missouri	Oregon	Frank Martin
Texas	5	9-7	36	27	26	L-1	UCLA	Arkansas	Rick Barnes
Texas A&M	6	9-7	29	45	41	W-6	Missouri	Baylor	Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State	7	9-7	26	32	32	L-1	Texas	Baylor	Travis Ford
Nebraska	8	8-8	69	61	70	W-2	Missouri	UMBC	Doc Sadler
Baylor	9	5-11	75	64	63	L-2	Arizona State	Iowa State	Scott Drew
Iowa State	10	4-12	160	115	113	W-1	Houston	SDSU	Greg McDermott
Texas Tech	11	3-13	129	95	101	L-1	Kansas	Lamar	Pat Knight
Colorado	12	1-15	233	180	202	L-11	Iowa State	Montana State	Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*According to Pomeroy rating

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook went out with a semi-whimper, going 4-2 on the final Saturday. Missouri's loss, although perhaps predictable with an "eyeball test," even prevented Outlook from correctly predicting the final seed order, as Texas A&M jumped Oklahoma State in the 9-7 tie mess, while Missouri fell back below the Oklahoma team they beat earlier in the week.

The other whiff was thanks to the ever-underachieving Baylor Bears, who I swear must be responsible for at least 5 of my 22 incorrect picks. I have some more thoughts on this in my awards, but Scott Drew did a bang-up job of wasting a lot of good talent this season.

By the way, who do you think will win the tournament? Be sure to scroll to the bottom of the page and vote in my poll. As for Outlook's opinion on the 1st round outcomes, you'll have to wait until Wednesday morning for those predictions. Today is more about looking back at where we've been more than where we're going.

All told, Outlook correctly predicted the outcomes of 74 of the 96 conference games this season, for about 77 percent accuracy. I thus award myself a C+ for the season; not too shabby for my first attempt at this. My goal for next year, though, is 80 percent or better.

Perhaps more impressive were the correct predictions of Kansas State as the No. 4 seed as far back as mid-February, of Oklahoma State's eventual 6-game winning streak as far back as early February and of Missouri's undefeated home season as far back as mid-January.

Final pick record: 74-22 (.771)

Postseason Awards: The Botcies

The Big 12 Conference awarded its postseason honors to players and coaches today, as well as selecting its 1st, 2nd and 3rd all-conference teams and honorable mentions.

Well, I have some disagreements with their selections, which I think are worth debating, as well as some original awards of my own to hand out. Read on to see the winners of the inaugural Botcies... (Get it? BOTCies?)

Player of the Year

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

Uh, like I'm going to argue with this? My only wish is that Michael Beasley had stuck around so Blake could have actually had some competition for the award.

Defensive Players of the Year

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

With all due respect to J.T. Tiller and very little due respect to Cole Aldrich, there was no more dominating presence in the paint this season than Blake Griffin. Not one week went by where I didn't drop my jaw at one of his blocks on ESPN's Gym Gems.

I don't really have anything against Tiller; I just don't like giving out co-awards very much because I think it's sort of a cop-out. As for Aldrich, honoring him ignores the fact that he got away with a ton of uncalled fouls in the process of accruing those defensive statistics, solely because his jersey said "Kansas." I refuse to ignore that fact.

J.T. Tiller (Missouri)

EDIT: All right, after some reflection, I decided to make this a co-award after all. What changed my mind? Well, I noticed Tiller was a unanimous selection to the all-defensive team. I figured if the 11 coaches not named Mike Anderson were that impressed with his defensive prowess, why shouldn't I be?

Newcomer of the Year

Denis Clemente (Kansas State)

Great pick by the Big 12. That said, it's not like there were a ton of options. Mario Little was really the only other transfer that was hyped coming into the season, and he didn't even come close to posting the sort of numbers or having the sort of impact Denis had.

I would just like to add that I predicted this award for Denis last summer. I felt like he would have even more of an impact than DeMarre Carroll did last season, and I was right. If you're into handicapping, my early favorite for Newcomer in 2009-10 is Curtis Kelly.

Freshman of the Year

Willie Warren (Oklahoma)

Also a solid pick. I don't know if he's one-and-done caliber, but there's no denying the kid was damned impressive.

Wally Judge will challenge for this award next season, Jayhawks. Better start getting used to the idea now...

Sixth Man of the Year

Matt Lawrence (Missouri)

Well, the Big 12 got this one half right. Matt Lawrence is probably the scariest spot-up shooter in the league not named Alan Voskuil, who I suppose is disqualified from this award since he is a starter. When I think of Lawrence, I think, "Thank God he's finally a senior!" Paul Velander should get an honorable mention, though.

But LaceDarius Dunn? Are you kidding me? I watched this kid very carefully after he lit us up in Manhattan for approximately 137 points, and let me tell you - it was a fluke. Dunn couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in any game I watched Baylor play after that, and the fact that he was the Bears' second-leading scorer and 3-point leader should tell you exactly why they finished 5-11. What a political pick. Hell, Fred Brown deserves this award more than Dunn.

The Darnell Jackson "Most Improved Senior" Overachievement Award

Darren Kent (Kansas State)

The first of my "original" Botcies, this award is named for Darnell Jackson, the Kansas player who didn't do very much until his senior year, when he was probably the best overall post player on a national championship team. No one other than Jayhawk fans saw that one coming.

There is no more deserving recipient of the inaugural Darnell Jackson Award than Darren Kent. When he signed his LOI, many Wildcat fans asked, "Who is this guy?" When Bob Huggins was hired, they were sure he would transfer. When he tried to dribble as a sophomore, they snickered. When he came in for Michael Beasley, they groaned.

Then came his senior year, and the awkward caterpillar metamorphosed into a graceful butterfly. He snagged rebounds, he shot jumpers, he banked off the glass, he played rugged defense, he broke his nose and played through the blood and the pain, he twisted his ankle and screamed at the trainers because they didn't get it re-taped fast enough so he could get back in and help his team win. Other than Denis Clemente, no player was more important to the Wildcats this season. White Tiger, you may never have your jersey retired, but know that you will still be missed.

The Aaron Bruce "Most Regressed Senior" Underachievement Award

Connor Atchley (Texas)

This award is named for the former Baylor guard who stunned the league as a freshman and basically got worse every season of his career. His senior year was by far his least productive, as he became something of an afterthought to younger, more athletic guards like Curtis Jerrells, Henry Dugat, Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn.

I don't normally like to dump on players, but the degree to which Connor Atchley's game went to crap this season is so striking it deserves comment. After last season, he looked like he was poised for a breakout alongside talented posts like Damion James and Dexter Pittman, but he instead spent most of the season missing dunks, blowing defensive assignments and being out-shined by Gary Johnson and Clint Chapman. At times, he was almost an active liability to his team. Frankly, these descriptions are nice compared to some of the things I have seen Texas fans call him.

The Joey Graham "Tough Son of a Bitch" Awards

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

I know the concussion didn't look like much, but did you see how this guy played when he came back against Texas Tech? Throughout the season he was tripped, punched in the nuts, whacked in the face multiple times and generally beat up every damn game, but he never complained and he gave as good as he got. What a warrior.

Darren Kent (Kansas State)

Dude played through a broken nose with no mask at Ames. Enough said.

Coach of the Year

Mike Anderson (Missouri)

Yeah, yeah, Self's a great coach, but it's not like he replaced all those starters with scrubs, people. Kansas is a program that reloads with top talent, and the Jayhawks returned one of the best guards and the only true center in the league. They were picked 3rd and they finished 1st by virtue of a concussion.

It's my opinion that Mike Anderson got screwed. It's a simple matter of numbers: Missouri was picked 7th and finished 3rd, and but for an upset loss Saturday would have finished 2nd. They were one of only two teams to beat the conference champion. Missouri is not a program that reloads with top talent, and Anderson deserves Coach of the Year for making them play like a program that does.

Honorable mention goes to Frank Martin, who could have earned it outright had he finished 10-6 again. That Baylor loss still sticks in my craw, though. K-State was picked 8th and finished tied for 4th, which ties Missouri for the most overachievement this season.

Most Underachieving Coach of the Year

Scott Drew (Baylor)

Baylor lost only Aaron Bruce (who, as I pointed out earlier, was playing so poorly as a senior that he wasn't much of a loss) and returned the entire rest of its team, while adding talented freshman Quincy Acy. The Bears were picked to tie Kansas for 3rd and they finished 9th. They lost to Iowa State and Texas Tech. They lost 10 of their last 12 games. They will be lucky to receive a bid to the NIT.

Considering there is apparently quite a lot of grumbling among the other 11 coaching staffs that Baylor is still playing fast and loose with the rules, despite being only five years removed from one of the worst scandals in sports history, you would think such shady tactics and so many talented and experienced guards would produce more than a 5-11 record. Coach Drew, congratulations on one of the worst coaching jobs I have seen in a long time. I hope John Wall and Latavious Williams answer your next phone call with raucous peals of laughter.

All-Big 12 First Team


Craig Brackins	DeMarre Carroll	Denis Clemente	Sherron Collins	Blake Griffin
Iowa State	Missouri	Kansas State	Kansas	Oklahoma

I put a lot of thought into this, and I think it's justified. First, I don't think any one team deserves two entries on this list, not even the champions. Second, I truly don't think Aldrich is that special, and in a normal year for bigs in the Big 12 he wouldn't have the kind of numbers he had this season. He's a good player, but not a great player. That screams 2nd team to me.

Denis Clemente tied the game-high for points set by Michael Beasley (44). He led his team in scoring. He made clutch shots all season long. Most of all, when the team was reeling, he put them on his back and became the leader they needed. The team took on his personality. It was simply electric to watch.

Thus, the top four seeds are represented by their best player, and Brackins, the best pure talent in the league not named Griffin, rounds out the 1st team. Please note that four of the five play in the North - more ammo for North defenders against the ignorant national media.

All-Big 12 Second Team


A.J. Abrams	Cole Aldrich	Byron Eaton	Damion James	Willie Warren
Texas	Kansas	Oklahoma State	Texas	Oklahoma

Aldrich switches places with Clemente, and Eaton replaces Anderson. I watched Oklahoma State a lot this year, and although Anderson was definitely their top scorer, Eaton is why that team won six of its last seven and is poised for an NCAA berth under a first-year coach. He saved his best for last, and frankly should have been an honorable mention for the Darnell Jackson Award.

All-Big 12 Third Team


James Anderson	Josh Carter	Ade Dagunduro	Cory Higgins	Leo Lyons
Oklahoma State	Texas A&M	Nebraska	Colorado	Missouri

I basically agree with the Big 12 when you get this low, except that I don't think Jerrells warrants any kind of consideration. No one on that crappy team does, frankly.

My honorable mentions would go to Ryan Anderson (Nebraska), Chinemelu Elonu (Texas A&M), Taylor Griffin (Oklahoma), Gary Johnson (Texas), Keiton Page (Oklahoma State), Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), J.T. Tiller (Missouri) and Alan Voskuil (Texas Tech).

All-Big 12 Defensive Team


Cole Aldrich	Blake Griffin	Terrel Harris	Dominique Sutton	J.T. Tiller
Kansas	Oklahoma	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Missouri

I will admit that Sutton is a bit of a homer pick, but he's a defensive specialist who has proven his worth many times over. As a freshman, he shut down Brandon Rush by himself. I was a little surprised he didn't even get an honorable mention. Mason and Roland being on there sort of struck me as a "you're not really good enough to even get honorable mention All-Big 12, so we'll give you this cookie instead" consolation prize.

P.S. I thought about Darren Kent, too, since he pretty much shut down Craig Brackins whenever he was assigned to him, which is not something I have seen many players do this year, but I've seen Darren have a few too many defensive breakdowns to go through with it.

All-Big 12 Freshman Team


Quincy Acy	Keiton Page	Jamar Samuels	Tyshawn Taylor	Willie Warren
Baylor	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Kansas	Oklahoma

I'm of the opinion that an All-Rookie team is weak. Clemente was already honored as Newcomer of the Year and 2nd Team by the Big 12, so he's covered. If Zaire Taylor wasn't good enough to be on the top three teams, why should he get a special spot here?

So, the Botcy policy will be to limit this team to true and redshirt freshmen. These are the future stars of the league, except maybe Warren, who may not be back next season.

Acy was the only Baylor player to truly impress me this season, so I included him to throw Baylor a bone after I have thoroughly dissed them in this entry up to this point. That said, it was a dead heat between him and Marcus Morris. Page is going to be a thorn in everyone's side for the next three years. Samuels - despite being unpolished, undersized, inexperienced and inconsistent - was K-State's 4th leading scorer, its blocks leader and one of its leading rebounders, as well as an instant energy guy off the bench. He will be a star player in the near future. Taylor was a pleasant surprise, and provided the Jayhawks the third scorer that Mario Little could never quite consistently be due to injuries.

Key

P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

Predicted Outcomes

01.10

3-2 (.600)

61 Tech
73 Baylor

67 I-State
75 Texas

61 Oklahoma
53 K-State

51 Missouri
56 Nebraska

61 A&M
72 O-State

01.12-01.14

4-1 (.800)

63 Texas
78 Oklahoma

71 K-State
87 Kansas

53 Nebraska
65 I-State

62 Colorado
107 Missouri

73 Baylor
84 A&M

01.17

6-0 (1.000)

92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)

73 Kansas
56 Colorado

46 I-State
77 Missouri

51 K-State
73 Nebraska

69 Oklahoma
63 A&M

71 Texas
49 Tech

01.19-01.21

3-2 (.600)

53 A&M
73 Kansas

55 Colorado
63 Tech

83 Baylor
65 K-State

97 Missouri
95 O-State

61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma

01.24

5-1 (.833)

77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)

82 Kansas
67 I-State

86 Tech
97 Missouri

76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)

76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma

58 A&M
67 Texas

01.26-01.28

3-3 (.500)

89 Oklahoma
81 O-State

78 Texas
72 Baylor

49 I-State
55 Colorado

72 Missouri
88 K-State

68 Kansas
62 Nebraska

70 Tech
79 A&M

01.31

4-2 (.667)

78 Oklahoma
68 I-State

85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)

61 Colorado
66 Kansas

72 Baylor
89 Missouri

82 Nebraska
69 Tech

64 O-State
76 A&M

02.02-02.04

4-2 (.667)

75 Kansas
65 Baylor

50 I-State
65 K-State

55 Nebraska
53 Colorado

69 Missouri
65 Texas

80 Tech
81 O-State

71 A&M
77 Oklahoma

02.07

4-2 (.667)

72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma

82 Missouri
68 I-State

65 K-State
60 A&M

67 O-State
78 Kansas

55 Texas
58 Nebraska

76 Baylor
83 Tech

02.09-02.11

5-0 (1.000)

60 Kansas
62 Missouri

74 O-State
99 Texas

78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor

42 Colorado
70 I-State

73 Tech
85 K-State

02.14

6-0 (1.000)

68 A&M
72 Baylor

85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)

67 I-State
86 O-State

85 Kansas
74 K-State

47 Nebraska
70 Missouri

74 Tech
95 Oklahoma

02.16-02.18

3-1 (.750)

66 Texas
81 A&M

55 I-State
72 Kansas

41 Colorado
46 Nebraska

92 O-State
82 Tech

02.21

6-0 (1.000)

66 Missouri
53 Colorado

50 K-State
46 I-State

53 Nebraska
70 Kansas

74 Baylor
84 O-State

79 A&M
73 Tech

68 Oklahoma
73 Texas

02.23-02.25

3-3 (.500)

87 Kansas
78 Oklahoma

62 Baylor
71 I-State

57 A&M
55 Nebraska

76 O-State
55 Colorado

74 K-State
94 Missouri

81 Tech
87 Texas

02.28-03.01

6-0 (1.000)

57 Colorado
75 Baylor

69 I-State
87 A&M

72 Nebraska
77 K-State

59 Texas
68 O-State

78 Oklahoma
63 Tech

65 Missouri
90 Kansas

03.02-03.04

5-1 (.833)

57 Baylor
73 Texas

71 K-State
77 O-State

72 A&M
66 Colorado

65 Kansas
84 Tech

64 Oklahoma
73 Missouri

61 I-State
77 Nebraska

03.07

4-2 (.667)

76 Tech
78 I-State

64 Colorado
76 K-State

73 Texas
83 Kansas

86 Missouri
96 A&M

66 Nebraska
62 Baylor

78 O-State
82 Oklahoma

Poll

Who do you think will win the 2009 Big 12 Tournament?

No. 1 Kansas

25 votes

No. 2 Oklahoma

38 votes

No. 3 Missouri

9 votes

No. 4 Kansas State

36 votes

No. 5 Texas

2 votes

No. 6 Texas A&M

1 votes

No. 7 Oklahoma State

0 votes

No. 8 Nebraska

2 votes

No. 9 Baylor

0 votes

No. 10 Iowa State

0 votes

No. 11 Texas Tech

0 votes

No. 12 Colorado

0 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

A KenPom Preview: Texas

rockchalk — Sat, 07 Mar 2009 07:34:51 -0000

Finally, the final regular season game is upon us. This season has whizzed by, and I still catch myself thinking that we've still got another month to go prior to the NCAA Tournament. But, we're already practically there.

Opening Thoughts

This game isn't as big as it was once though to be. Texas was a popular pick to win the Big 12, and while Kansas wasn't expected to win, we were expected to be competitive. An end-of-season trip up to Allen Field House, with potential conference title implications, and CBS went all-in. Of course, it hasn't worked out that way. Texas, until just earlier this week, was still planted firmly on the bubble. And we've already locked up the Big 12, with Saturday's game only deciding if we can become outright champions, or not.

But, that wasn't this game is about. No. With this being the final home game of the season, it's Senior Day. And while it certainly won't be the same, special celebration that it was last year, we've still got Matt Kleinmann graduating. And by God, we will refuse to lose on Matt Kleinmann's Senior Day.

Actual preview-material, game-related I promise, after the jump...

The Background

The background goes back awhile. In 2005, on a senior-laden team stacked with Aaron Miles, Keith Langford and Wayne Simien, the Longhorns waltzed into Allen Field House highly ranked. Along with them came the ESPN GameDay crew, in their first season of doing college basketball games. It ended shortly after, a 90-65 Kansas win. The next year, one of the youngest teams ever, after starting off terribly, made a trip down to Austin with an opportunity to clinch the Big 12 outright. And, again, ESPN GameDay came along for the trip. And, again, the road team was sent packing, 25-point losers, with the Longhorns winning 80-55. Ever since then, every game played between the Longhorns and Jayhawks has been epic.

Epic, I tell you.

It started just a couple of weeks following that second shellacking in Austin, when the two teams met, again, in the Championship Game of the Big 12 Tournament in Dallas. Kansas won, 80-68, in a game that was closer than the score. The next year, the Longhorns made their repeat visit up to the Phog. This time, they brought Kevin Durant along with them, and he went off. I'm talking, the greatest performance I've ever seen, ever, in a college basketball game. Still, in part thanks to Durant missing part of the second half due to injury, Kansas wins, 90-86. But the rivalry was just getting good. 8 days later, the teams met again in the Big 12 Tournament, this time in Oklahoma City. Texas surged ahead to a dominating 32-14 lead, but the Jayhawks slowly climbed back. A clutch Mario Chalmers three late in the game, and Kansas wins, again. Then, there was last year. This time, the game was on Big Monday, and Kansas lost, thanks to a career day by Connor Atchley. But, for the third straight year, the two teams found themselves matched up in the Big 12 Tournament Finals, this time in Kansas City. The Jayhawks used the homecourt advantage, of sorts, to their advantage, and used the best game of Mario Chalmers' life to win late, in what was probably the most well-played college basketball game of last season.

In case you're counting, that's five straight awesome, Instant Classics from this series. This year, with Texas' superiority in talent and experience and depth expected to be overshadowed by the mystique of the Phog, was supposed to be number 6. It hasn't exactly worked out that way, though.

Texas started out fine, lining up OOC wins over Villanova, UCLA and Wisconsin (in Madison). A narrow loss to Notre Dame, which was actually a Top 10 matchup at the time, was excusable, and a loss to Michigan State was almost expected. But then, in Fayetteville, the wheels began to shake off. They fell to the Razorbacks immediately prior to conference play beginning. After a shaky performance at home against the Cyclones, they got wrecked in Norman. A trio of what seemed like bounce-back losses, and then the wagon became completely derailed. They lost three straight to the supposedly weaker Big 12 North (vs. K-State, vs. Missouri, @ Nebraska), and they've never fully recovered.

They seemed to have clinched a ticket, for all intents-and-purposes, this past week with the massive bubble hysteria, but they still aren't where they expected to be.

Still, with another expected Epic Showdown on the way, they can start climbing back towards their lofty preseason expectations on Saturday.

The Offense

Four Factors

eFG% (211th) -- When you think of Texas, what do you think of? Maybe I'm just way off, but I always kind of think of a shot-making team. That is probably due to A.J. Abrams, who just seems like he is within range the second he steps into the gym. But even his eFG% is way, way down from where you might expect it to be. Let's just say, I'm not terribly worried about losing our consecutive game streak of allowing the opposition to shoot higher than 50%.
TO% (31st) -- Again, with all of their point guard issues, you'd expect this to be higher. Much higher. And yet, here it is, one of the better teams in the country at not turning the ball over. A lot of that is because Abrams never, ever turns the ball over; which is probably why plenty of folks thought he could play the point. Of course, maintaining possession is only half the battle; you have to distribute well, too. That's the part he wasn't, and isn't, so hot at.
Off. Reb% (23rd) -- They are a fairly short team, for the most part. With their new, Dogus Balbay-included starting lineup, they are starting 6'7"-on-a-good-day Damion James at the 4. And yet, James' beastitude on the boards is one of the bigger assets this team has. Well, 300-pound Dexter Pittman doesn't hurt, either. No matter how, we need to box the eff out. I don't want them picking up trash for 40 minutes.
FTA/FGA (129th) -- Eh. As long as it isn't Abrams, I'm pretty much fine with fouling anybody, to be honest. Particularly Balbay (39%) and Justin Mason (52%). They are absolutely dreadful, as a team, at shooting the throws.

The Defense

Four Factors

eFG% (45th) -- Good, solid, kinda-sorta-awesome. We'll talk about it later on, in The Keys, but most games just revolve around our ability to hit open shots. We should, by the numbers, see a lot less open looks on Saturday than we did Wednesday night against Tech, but whatever. We can't afford to only hit 30% of them, I know that for sure.
TO% (161st) -- Thank Jesus. A team that doesn't consistently turn you over. As long as we don't go crazy and commit a bundle of unforced errors, we should be fine.
Off. Reb% (140th) -- This is where we can take advantage of the Horns. Our bigs need to be able to feast off of the second-chance points and get the subsequent layups to fall. If we do that, and limit our turnovers to something halfway reasonable, and we win. Even if we can't hit the broad side of the barn.
FTA/FGA (167) -- Nothing useful, here.

The Players

A.J. Abrams (G) -- The most well-known player, he certainly isn't the best player. Still, when he gets hot, like he was to close out their home game against Oklahoma, there isn't anybody in the country who can light it up better. You see, though, that he's cold far more often than he is smokin'. As long as he doesn't Voskuil us to death, and yes that's a term now in the Kansas fans' lexicon, I'm not terribly worried. Brady, one would imagine, would have to guard him. But I swear, Brady's hurt or something, so I'm going to say that T2 gets put on Abrams, at least at the start. Whoever is guarding him, just faceguard the hell out of him on the perimeter, try and force him to use the bounce, and you should be fine. Assuming he isn't Superman, for a day, like Voskuil.

Damion James (F) -- James, on the other hand, is their best player. Hands down. He's a freaking monster on the glass, particularly the offensive glass, so it is paramount we find him and stick an ass on him. I can't tell you how many times I've seen him soar in for putback dunks when he starts from the three-point line when the shot is fired. I don't care if he is at half court, one of the Morris twins (or someone else, I suppose, it's just fun singling out the twins) needs to find him and do whatever it takes, without fouling, from touching the ball. Simple as that. I'll tolerate any potential offense he gives them non-rebounding related; it's going to happen somewhat, but I doubt he explodes or anything.

Dogus Balbay (G) -- Maybe I just haven't seen him play enough, but from what I've seen, I'm wholeheartedly unimpressed with good ol' Dogus. He's pretty good at getting into the lane, and can play D, but can't shoot whatsoever. It isn't your typical, pass-first, drive-second, shoot-third kind of situation. No, it's like, leave him wide, wide open from anywhere beyond 10 feet, and I bet he misses. Dude's shooting 39% from the free throw line. Sherron, on offense and defense, should eat Balbay's lunch. If he does, we'll be fine. If we see the Sherron who showed up in Lubbock, the game will be closer than anyone thought.

Dexter Pittman (C) -- This dude's huge. Like, ginormous. He used to be way bigger, a story that I'm sure you'll hear, for the billionth time, during the telecast. He knows how to use his weight effecitvely, though, and picks up rebounds just because of his sheer size. And, even before Blake Griffin got knocked out with that concussion of his, Pittman was pretty much shutting him down. At least, as much as you can shut down the unanimous best player in the country. Cole should have a bitch of a time down there, so we'll have to be patient. Feed Cole early on, see how Dexter responds. If nothing's happening, and 300+ over here is dominating Aldrich, find somewhere else to go. I'm intimidated of him, to tell you the truth.

Justin Mason (G) -- Dude has had some offensive explosions, but nearly all of those occured out of conference play. Since Big 12 play started, Mason's struggled. He's kind of like their Brady Morningstar, at least with the defensive reputation, so he actually might be the one who is guarding Sherron. In any case, whoever is assigned to him on D should be fine with leaving him to help. If Mason is beating us, then whatever. It just ain't our week.

Rest of the Bunch -- Connor Atchley is tall, can rebound and, most importantly, likes shooting the three (he went 5-5 last year from three against us, and that's ALWAYS the first thing that I think of whenever I read/hear/see his name).....Gary Johnson has been out recently, but he's an awesome rebounder in his own right when healthy; he adds a bunch to their team, and provides a decent mid-range game, too.....Varez Ward is just a ho-hum reserve, freshman guard, providing nothing terribly impressive or impactful......Harrison Smith has seen some recent playing time, but hasn't played enough on the season to be listed on Texas' KP page. So, whatever.

The Keys

1) Open Shots: Drill 'Em -- I'm considering just leaving this the #1 key for all games. I want to statstically confirm this, and maybe I'm just dealing in the realm of obvious-ness, but we win or lose based on our shooting. And our offense is well-run enough, with enough ball movement and sharp passes and drive-and-kicks and etc., that we get approximately the same amount of open looks a contest, adjusted for the opposition's defense. We win if we make above x percentage, and if we don't hit that many, we lose. As simple as that. This is particularly crucial from behind the three-point arc.

2) Speed 'Em Up -- I've left pace out of the keys for the most part, this season, because there isn't a speed we are greatly better at. But, Texas has struggled the most, by far, when the games are fast, and we thrive at home playing up-and-down. So, use Allen Field House to your advantage, get everyone standing-and-clapping-and-hooting-and-hollering, and keep on running. Make Balbay slow it down, or Rick Barnes. Don't get out of control, but don't be shy at taking it in to score if you have an opportunity.

3) Box. The Hell. Out -- Hey, Morris twins, hey. Damion James is as good of an offensive rebounder as you get, for his body type, and is athletic as hell. Find him, stick a body on him, go up and grab the board. Both of you are infinitely better at this stuff than you were at the beginning of the year; show off your improvement tomorrow.

That's all, for now.

We're going to win, I'm fairly certain. Coming off such a terrible, stupid loss, you'd have to think that we're going to come out quite pissed off and angry. And that, combined with the raucous Allen Field House crowd, doesn't bode well for the Horns.

Plus, most of all, it's Matt Kleinmann Day. And we won't lose, no matter what, on Matt Kleinmann Day.

Texas Coasts to Crucial Home Win

awiggo — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 05:53:58 -0000

For the first time in a long time, Texas cruised to a victory on the hardwood. The 73-57 win over Baylor improved the Longhorns to 20-9 overall and 9-6 in the Big XII. The win was huge for a number of reasons.

First, the win basically assured Texas of their eleventh straight trip to the NCAA tournament. Second, Saturday's trip to Lawrence just became a lot less stressful. Win and Texas probably grabs fourth place alone in the conference (assuming Ok State beats Kansas St on Wednesday) and first round bye in the Big XII tournament. But a loss at Kansas won't be season crippling either. Third, Texas has now won 20 or more games for the tenth straight season. Last, Rick Barnes improved to an impressive 24-0 against Baylor.

This game was never close, thankfully, and seniors AJ Abrams and Connor Atchley got to walk off the Erwin Center floor winners one final time.

A few quick comments:

Baylor has regressed like no team in recent memory and is way less than the sum of their parts. They have plenty of scorers but play almost no defense and foul. A lot. The Bears squeaked into the NCAA tournament last year with less talent, and I thought before the season, this team was NCAA destined as well. No defense = no ability to win.
Justin Mason played much better tonight. He was aggressive with the ball, moved well without it, and was disruptive on the defensive end.
This team misses Gary Johnson badly. Get healthy quickly.
Dexter Pittman was a beast tonight. He single handedly put the Baylor frontline in foul trouble.
I would love to see what kind of terror Dogus Balbay could cause with a jump shot.
Clint Chapman must find some toughness or he isn't going to see the floor.

I may not get to a full review until tomorrow evening, if at all. To me, there weren't too many special things about tonight's game--Texas dominated an inferior and undersized team in the paint, attacked the rim nicely off the dribble and from the post and was rewarded at the line, and contested the Baylor perimeter jump shooters well.

Post your own comments here.

Box Score

Next Game: at Kansas -- Saturday, March 7th 3 pm CBS

Game Review: Texas Crashes In Stillwater, 59-68

Peter Bean — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 06:22:22 -0000

Final - 2.28.2009 :: COMPLETE BOX SCORE	1	2	Total
Texas Longhorns	18	41	59
Oklahoma St. Cowboys	30	38	68

full game Coverage >

Game Recap: The best way to characterize the first half of Texas' 59-68 loss to Oklahoma State is "race to the bottom" -- by Damion James, by Dogus Balbay, by Justin Mason, by Rick Barnes... and, with equal vigor, by many of the Texas fans following along in the game thread. When Damion James' three point shot badly missed to conclude the half, Texas had managed a meager 18 points of first half offense. Considering that watching Texas first half performance shook me back to the days when the 8th grade B-Team I was coaching would scrimmage the high-A squad... I suppose the Longhorns were lucky only to be trailing by 12.

Incredibly, things actually got worse in the first three minutes of the second half as Texas lost 3 turnovers and committed 2 fouls, and when Terrel Harris' two free throws put OSU up 17 with 17:07 to play, I'm not sure anyone would have blamed the Longhorns if they had just mailed it in from there.

But facing the largest deficit of the night, Rick Barnes' substitution of Harrison Smith -- which at the time seemed an act of desperation more than anything else -- proved to be precisely the offensive spark that Texas needed. Dogus Balbay immediately started a Texas rally by aggressively penetration the lane; though he missed, the Cowboys were caught out of position, Dexter Pittman grabbed the offensive board, put it back in, and drew a foul for a three-point play. Seconds later, AJ Abrams stole the ball from James Anderson and found Harrison Smith open on the wing for a transition three pointer. The 6-0 spurt pulled Texas back within 11 at the under-16 timeout, and more importantly, gave Balbay and the Texas offense the energy and confidence to attack that had been missing.

After a Keiton Page three pointer put OSU back up by 13 with 12:27 to play, Texas put together the big run it needed, outscoring OSU 19-7 over the game's next 8 minutes to slash the lead to 56-55. Sadly, that's as close as Texas' visibly drained players would get. From there, as the tired Longhorns substituted fouling for actual defense and stand-and-watch-Abrams for actual offense, the Cowboys outscored Texas 12-3 to close out the game.

The outcome was: Deserved. Pretty much everyone but Harrison Smith deserves a slice of tonight's blame cake, but the largest slice goes to Rick Barnes & Staff. With Oklahoma State dropping Mason and/or Balbay's defenders into the paint for a pre-entry pass double team, Texas fans watched in disbelief as the Longhorns simply ran minor variations of the same mistake over and over again. Meanwhile, Texas' first-half transition defense looked like a replay of the 2007 Kansas State football game: wave at the opponents as they sprint by! Throw in shoddy timeout management and atrocious endgame offensive strategy, and it's not unfair to say Rick Barnes didn't put his team in a position to win tonight.

Stat of the Game: Texas 7 assists, 15 turnovers. If I was a scout watching Damion James tonight, I have huge concerns about his ability to play the wing in the NBA, so poor were his ball-handling skills. Elsewhere, AJ Abrams had what was perhaps his worst game of the season, finishing with 15 jacks (only 3 made), 3 turnovers, and not a single assist. Justin Mason was so lousy in his 19 minutes of action (0 points, 3 turnovers, 0 assist, 3 fouls) that Barnes turned to Harrison Smith. And Dogus Balbay waited an entire half to come to life and attack the OSU defense, all four of his assists coming in the game's final 20 minutes.

Offensive MVP: Harrison Smith 12 points (5-9, 2-5 3PFG), 5 rebounds (4 offensive) OSU's defensive game plan was simple: sag Balbay and Mason's defenders off and away from their men to double team the post and smother AJ Abrams. With Texas' offense in the gutter, Barnes wisely turned to the eager-to-score Harris, who provided for Texas a perimeter player willing and able to shoot, a threat which neutralized OSU's defensive strategy and opened the floor for Balbay to drive. Though the 'Horns ultimately fell short, Harris deserves a lot of credit for his effort tonight, connecting on two long balls and finishing three more in the paint off of offensive rebounds. His defense is still a clear liability, but he hustled there, too, playing adequately enough to justify his minutes. Whereas to this point all we've seen from Harris offensively are long, often ill-timed three point attempts, if he can contribute to the offense in all the ways that he did this evening, it's going to be difficult not to give him 15-20 of Varez Ward and Justin Mason's minutes. Certainly with Gary Johnson out tonight, Texas needed someone who could pose some sort of scoring threat. Kudos to Smith for stepping up to fill that void.

Defensive MVP: Dogus Balbay. He certainly wasn't the problem on defense tonight, both his excellent work on Byron Eaton and his three second half steals critical to the Texas rally.

Factor Four:

1. Damion James and Dexter Pittman really missed Gary Johnson. Damion James played his heart out, God bless him -- unquestionable effort for all 40 minutes of his 18 point, 18 rebound performance. Still, James' night was marred by painfully sloppy handles and six(!) missed lay ups. More than any other Longhorn, Damion missed the offensive floor spacing that Gary Johnson provides, as OSU was able to pack in the paint, double teaming Pittman and James with impunity. Throughout the first half, Big Dexter struggled mightily with the two Cowboys defenders on his hip at all times, while the swarm of inside bodies caused James to struggle with countless close looks he normally finishes.

2. Baylor is now a must-win. Unless you want to stake your wad on Texas winning at Allen Fieldhouse, you should probably consider Texas' Monday night home game against Baylor a must-win.Take care of business, and Texas remains in decent enough shape, whatever the outcome in the Big 12 tournament. But if they lose to Baylor... things suddenly get interesting again, and not in a good way. This year's bubble doesn't look too imposing, but the last thing Texas wants is to close the regular season with three straight losses, including one at home.

3. Harrison Smith's spark as a microcosm of a lingering big issue. While it's anyone's guess whether Smith can provide with any consistency what he did this evening, his spark off the bench illuminated the ball and chain the Texas offense is dragging around the court -- the lack of perimeter shooting threats.

It's an issue that plagues Texas' roster from top to bottom. What's the problem with giving minutes to the excellent defense provided by Justin Mason and Varez Ward? Neither can hit a jump shot to save their lives. What has Texas most missed from Connor Atchley? His ability to knock down the outside J. What's the one thing keeping Dogus Balbay from being one of the most dangerous point guards in the country? No outside shot.

In looking at what Harrison Smith provided tonight, it's easier to appreciate how Gary Johnson -- still raw and coming into his own -- brings a particularly valuable skill set to this Texas offense. Along with his strong body and improving skills near the rim, Johnson's ability to knock down 12-18 foot jump shots make him especially important as a neutralizing weapon for sagging defenses.

4. Player notes. After back-to-back solid efforts at home, Clint Chapman was the Queen of Spades tonight in Stillwater, equal parts clumsy and soft on both ends of the floor.... After a tough, mostly unproductive first half, Dexter Pittman was having an excellent second half when Rick Barnes subbed him out with 5:27 to play and Texas within 7. But he never saw the floor again and was sorely missed over the final four minutes when the Longhorns quit working the ball inside and watched AJ Abrams dribble and brick away the team's last chances.... Freshman point guard Dogus Balbay was in the first half thrown wildly off his game by the severity of the cushion his defender was giving him. He refused to shoot or drive, as he (and the Texas offense) were thoroughly rendered ineffective. Fortunately, his second half performance (4 points, 4 assists, 3 steals) was as excellent as his first half was poor... Connor Atchley gave Texas serviceable defense and interior rebounding that was sorely lacking from Clint Chapman, but his offensive slump continued (0-3 FGs). Especially without Johnson, Texas badly misses Atchley as a 8-10 PPG scorer.

Looking Ahead:

Remaining schedule: Monday, 3/2 vs Baylor (8:00 p.m.), Saturday 3/7 at Kansas

If you're a masochist:

Trips Right's review at BC