SB Nation - David Merritt

Clemson: Not so Many Numbers

Beauford — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 18:20:54 -0000

Ah, it begins. One of my absolute favorite times to be a sports fan. I'm watching Butler play LSU, got the other games running on the laptop. Life's good.

Michigan plays tonight, which is pretty sweet. First time in 10 years that we've heard NCAA, blahde blahde blahde. Let's get to the game, shall we?

The first thing that you notice when looking at Clemson is that damned full court press that they run on almost every possession. The next thing you notice is "holy crap it works." Clemson on the season forces a turnover on nearly 25% of their opposition's possessions, which is scary for a team like Michigan who definitely can't afford to give Clemson easy transition points. The answer for anybody who's watched Michigan this year is "Grady!" but he's proven to be a defensive liability, and probably won't get the start. However, should that press become a huge problem for Lee/Merritt, I would expect Grady to get some serious minutes.

The flip side of a tenacious press is easy 2 pointers once it's broken, and poor rebounding. Clemson allows for both, which like, good. Rebounding has been somewhat of an issue for Michigan, so it's nice to be going up against a team for whom it's also a problem. Should Michigan start to break that press with consistency, I expect there to be some easy transition points.

Also boding well for Michigan is Clemson's lack of a true giant in the middle. Trevor Booker averages around 15 points/game, and will be their primary target inside. I don't think he's the biggest threat, however, as Sims matches up well and barring foul trouble should be able to at least frustrate him enough to limit his impact. I'm more worried about Oglesby shooting from range. If he gets hot and starts shooting over the zone, it could be a long day.

Speaking of the zone, it seems to be Michigan's primary weapon in this game. Clemson has had very limited time to prepare for the 1-3-1, and aren't very good at keeping the ball anyways, turning it over on 21% of their possessions. Without a true big man to plow inside, Clemson is going to really have to rely on dribble drives and outside shooting. Defending the perimeter is paramount.

For Michigan offensively, it's the same story. Gotta get Sims involved early, gotta have Manny penetrating and dishing, gotta have somebody hit some outside shots. The only difference here is that full court press. Break it, and we should get some easy buckets. Get killed by it, and well, it's back to Ann Arbor.

There has been much said about Beilein's tournament success compared to Purnell's lack thereof. While I don't hold this as a something that is too important, it is certainly worth mentioning. Beilein, whether in the NCAA or the NIT, wins a lot. Purnell, on the other hand, has never won a tournament game in 5 tries. He's figured out a way to lose whether he's favored or not, which could be good, because the numbers say that, uh, we're decidedly not favored.

Keys to the game

Break the press. Hopefully with Lee/Meritt, maybe with Grady
Limit Clemson transition points
Defend the perimeter
Work that 1-3-1 to force TO's
Get Sims involved early
Quality 3 pointers; not quantity

Are we favored? No, no, and no. Can we win this game? Of course. If we break the press with consistency, and our 1-3-1 proves to be frustrating, I think we're in good shape. Let's get after it. Live blog at 5PM.

Michigan: Round Two

BoilerTMill — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 16:32:45 -0000

Both teams need tonight’s game for different reasons, but the underlying subtext will be Chris Kramer, Manny Harris, and elbowgate. Michigan fans arms till up in arms that Harris got ejected for what was an inadvertent elbow. Purdue fans are still up in arms that Kramer was knocked senseless and now has to play with a freaky mask. I would say at the moment that Michigan needs this game more because of its precarious NCAA position. Purdue is going to be dancing regardless of its finish now, so we’re playing for a Big Ten championship and a good seed. Michigan needs a win and a solid finish or it will be back to the NIT.

"We don't retaliate. We just get W's."

Michigan Wolverines

Michigan Record: 17-11, 7-8 Big Ten
2007-08 postseason: Lost 51-34 to Wisconsin in Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals
2007-08 final record: 10-22, 6-14 Big Ten
Blog Representation: MGoBlog, MVictors, Varsity Blue, Michigan Sports Center, iBlog for Cookies, Maize'n'Brew, Maize & Blue Nation, UM Hoops

Not a whole lot has changed for Michigan statistically since I did the original game preview for our matchup in West Lafayette. The Wolverines position of being a lock for the NCAA Tournament before conference play started has dropped significantly because of their struggles in Big Ten play. As UCLA continues to plummet that win loses some value as well. Michigan is not a good road team in Big Ten play, winning only at Northwestern and Indiana and needing overtime both times to grab the victory. With two road games remaining at Minnesota and Wisconsin the Wolverines absolutely have to defend their home court tonight.

They have been better at home, but they haven’t exactly made Crisler Arena a place where the Big Ten’s elite fear to tread. Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State have all won with relative ease at Michigan this year. In an interesting twist tonight the student section won’t be as strong since the campus is already on spring break. On the other side, it is also Senior night for three Michigan seniors. They aren’t scoring machines as they average a combined 7 points per game, but C.J. Lee, David Merritt, and Jevohn Shepherd are solid role players that contribute each night. Shepherd had 10 points in our earlier game, so if he adds that contribution tonight with Harris and Sims doing their usual thing we could find ourselves in trouble.

I made the argument before that the Harris ejection really didn’t matter. Purdue has always done a good job against him and he was well below his averages at the point of conflict. Michigan was actually leading at the time as well, so they had proven they can do well without him. Instead of rallying against injustice they crumbled.

Still, the Wolverines are a much better team with him in there. After what happened in Iowa City on Sunday there is plenty of consternation in the Michigan locker room at the moment. Harris was suspended for the overtime period against Iowa in Sunday’s 10 point loss. Coach John Beilein refused to elaborate on the reason why as well.

Our win in game one came like many others have this season. We played a tight first half but blew things open in the second half thanks to suffocating defense that led to an offensive explosion in transition. Home wins over Iowa, Penn State, and Wisconsin happened in the exact same way. We have struggled in taking that same act on the road and I fear we will need to tonight in order to get a win we must have for the Big Ten title.

I think we should go with the same formula we have used in our last three victories over Michigan. We have to stifle Harris and force someone else to beat us. We will see Zack Novak tonight after he was suspended for the first Purdue game, but this feels like a team that is getting worse as the season goes along rather than better. On the other hand, this game reminds me a lot of our trip to Ohio State last season. In that game, we needed a win to stay in the hunt for the Big Ten title. Ohio State was a team reeling and desperate to get a big win for its NCAA hopes (which ultimately fell short). Doesn’t this sound familiar?

I am assuming Robbie Hummel is playing tonight. If he plays I think we have a win. Be sure to join me right here at 9pm for the open thread. I’ll be watching and posting live from Casa De T-Mill. Purdue 67, Michigan 62

Other notes:

· If you’re on campus and have nothing better to do, head on over to Mackey arena as the women’s team will have its own senior night against Michigan. It’s been a bit of a disappointing year for the ladies as some were predicting a Final Four appearance, but a win tonight would give them 20 wins and would most assuredly put them into the NCAA Tournament for a 15th straight season. Tipoff is at 7pm, so there is plenty of time to go and get back in time to watch the men at 9.

· Incoming recruit D.J. Byrd had minor knee surgery this morning for a torn meniscus, but he hopes to be back for next week’s sectional semifinal in a possible rematch with Danville and Travis Carroll. This is very good news, as his original injury sounded much worse and could have cost him his freshman season next year if it had been ligament damage.

· The baseball team travels to Southeast Missouri State tomorrow for a four game series. The Redhawks took two of three from #16 Alabama last week and won a midweek game against a non-Division 1 opponent to move to 3-1. It is the first meeting between the schools and Purdue probably needs at least a split. An 0-9 start to last season probably prevented an NCAA tournament berth even though Purdue did very well in Big Ten play. We’re already at 1-3 and on a three game losing streak. First pitch of the series is at 3pm Friday.

· If you haven’t had a chance to check out the Fan Post on the right, the Paint Crew is taking on the Izzone in a Coaches vs. Cancer Fundraising Challenge. I have joined the team and set a modest goal of raising $200 here through the site. This is something we can do guys, and it is for a great cause.

· Anyone still interested in joining me for the Big Ten Hoops Day 5k on March 15th in Indianapolis before the Big Ten Tournament championship should e-mail me at tamiller@excite.com. I plan on running in the event and hopefully hopping home for a quick shower before heading to see the Boilers win the title.

· Finally, I will likely not be able to make it to next Wednesday’s Northwestern game. l will probably be covering a high school sectional game that night, so I have posted my tickets on Ebay of anyone is interested.

A Complete Win: Michigan Basketball Throttles Iowa

Maize n Brew Dave — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 15:56:38 -0000

Harris with the Finger Roll. via multimedia.detnews.com

Despite it's best start in the last 10 years, wins over two top ten teams, and its obvious improvement, coming into Sunday, there were still big questions about the 2008-2009 Men's Basketball team. How would they react to the more physical Big Ten season? What would they do if they got done big against a legitimate opponent? When would they play real defense in the first half? Seriously? When?

In three Big Ten Games, Michigan had given up 42, 39 and 39 points during the first half of those games. Despite a home loss to Wisconsin that wasn't as close as the 73-61 final score indicated, the surprising result of these first half defensive meltdowns was a 2-1 conference record (and the likely shaving of a month off Coach Beilein’s life). Open jumpers. Lanes to the hoop. Problems defending down low. Slow defensive rotation. All these things seemed only present in the first half, and would (usually) disapear in the second. Giving up 40 points in any half is not a recipe for success. And the criticism that was first born against Savannah State started gaining a little more volume: "they’re going to get burned by their first halves if they don’t play better on defense."

Simply put, when are we going to see a complete 40 minutes out of this team in conference play?

Michigan’s response to this was to smother the Iowa Hawkeyes in both halves, en route to a 64-49 blowout victory in Ann Arbor. Almost as if to answer this growing criticism, the Wolverines smothered the Hawkeyes' during the first half. Michigan forced Iowa into 8 first half turnovers, a meager 16 points at halftime, and 26% shooting. Michigan clogged the passing lanes, creating the fast break points that had been missing in its prior two games, and generally pounding the Hawkeyes’ offense into a pulp.

Offensively, the Wolverines carried their momentum from the comeback win at Indiana and poured on 32 first half points and controlled the games tempo from the outset. Michigan took a 16 point lead into half time after shooting 52% from the floor and 50% from three. Instead of relying on the three ball as they did against the Hoosiers, Michigan went inside against the smaller Iowa backcourt. Taking only 8 threes in the first half, Michigan pounded Sims and Harris inside. Instead of watching their opponents grab rebounds uncontested, players like Zack Novak, CJ Lee and Laval Lucas-Perry all seemed to take a loose ball personally and fought their ways to first half boards. Novak seemed to be everywhere early, pulling down 4 boards and contributing outstanding defense despite not putting in a bucket.

Less than a week after the near debacle at Assembly Hall, Michigan seemed like a different team. Beilein's team imposed their will from the outset and never let Iowa establish its offense. Everything that drove you nuts watching the Indiana game seemed to disapear. There were drives to the hoop and players without the ball moving under the basket instead of standing around out side the arc. Defensively, Michigan was a step quicker against the Hawkeyes than they were against the Hoosiers. Playing much more aggressively, they forced Iowa outside the arc and never allowed them to get comfortable in the paint.

While Sims and Harris dominated the stat sheet, everyone contributed to Sunday’s win. Stu Douglass and Zack Gibson hooked up on one of the seasons prettier pick and rolls. Merrit and Lee provided only 21 minutes between them but they provided hustle and solid defense. Laval Lucas-Perry poured in 8 points, 4 boards and clogged the lanes. And Kelvin Grady continued to run the offense efficiently and effective.

In my opinion, Kelvin Grady continues to be one of the most underrated contributors to Michigan’s hot start this season season. You can point to Laval Lucas-Perry’s emergence as a third scoring threat, but LLP, to some extent, was a known entity prior to his transfer from Arizona.

Grady Launches From Three. via cmsimg.freep.com

Coming into this year it was anyone’s guess as to whether Grady would be a contributor at all. Like the other freshmen last year, Grady turned the ball over too much and missed far too many shots. This year, it’s the opposite. Grady has 37 assists compared to just 11 turnovers, playing significant minutes, and doing what we’d hoped he’d be able to do, drive the lane and score or dish. Grady continues to pick opportune to drive to the rim and judiciously launch from behind the arc. Most importantly, Grady seems to have finally seized control of the "point guard" position by repeatedly being able to distribute the ball without turning it over.

Against Iowa Grady dished four assists and had no turnovers. Happily, this isn’t an uncommon occurrence. Against Duke, in two contests, Grady has 10 assists and 2 tunrovers, and in his last 10 games he’s turned the ball over just 6 times compared to 29 assists. Further, Grady has proven to be a perfect fit for Beilein’s defense, running the baseline to contest passes and shots from the corner quicker than any other player on the roster. He's playing with confidence and with the type of agression we saw from his brother as Kevin ran people over on the football field this past year.

The result of all this was Michigan thumping Iowa. Michigan lead by as many as twenty-eight points before sitting its starters and settling in for a 15 point win. While it's just one game, it's still a complete one. And hopefully the first of many to come this conference season.

Notes:

Before we get too carried away with the win, there are some mitigating factors in the blowout loss that need to be considered. The biggest "OMG this could've been different" factor was the absence of Iowa Forward and best player Cyrus Tate from the lineup with a sprained ankle. Michigan's had trouble with teams that can pound them inside (e.g., Wisconsin). While the 1-3-1 allows Michigan to some extent to clog those lanes and negate an inside presence, the only player on our roster that can defend down low is DeShawn Sims. And if he gets in foul trouble, it's going to be up to Zach Gibson to fill that void.
After watching Purdue and sleek big man JaJuan Johnson pummel Wisconsin inside and out on Sunday, Michigan's going to have to keep it's enthusiasm in check until they prove they can matchup on a team with size and speed. Without Tate, Iowa was a perfect Michigan opponent, lacking size and outside range. Purdue can shoot from outside and their size is going to present Michigan with some problems.
DeShawn Sims continues to get better and better. Sims took only one three pointer, and spent the entire game down in the blocks or less than 15 feet out. We all knew he’d be good with his back to the basket down low, but the biggest surprise has been the development of his mid range jump shot. Sims is getting down right deadly from 10-15 feet. Harris may be scoring the most, but its arguable that Sims is our best all around player.
Manny being Manny. Harris had another exceptional game, so anything here is nit picking, but I’d love to see him show a 10-15 foot jumper like Sims. Harris is excellent inside and on the cut, but he seems to either force his way inside or launch a three. If he can start burying a few more mid range shots, he’ll open the lane up a bit more because it’ll force his defender closer and allow Harris to take advantage of that first quick step.
Anthony Wright saw a little mop up time. Man. I remember last year he was on the floor all the time. Just shows how much this team has gotten.
Zack Novak wasn't feelin' it on Sunday, going 1-6 from the floor (1-5 from three). Even so the kid was a factor on the boards and on defense. He's going to be a fan favorite for a long, long time.
UMHoops.com has all your statistical needs and player breakdowns.

Poll

Who is Michigan's Most Improved Player This Season?

Manny Harris

5 votes

DeShawn Sims

25 votes

Kelvin Grady

20 votes

Zach Gibson

2 votes

52 votes | Poll has closed