SB Nation - Raymar Morgan

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. Texas Longhorns

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 03:55:10 -0000

More photos » by Michael Thomas - AP

Another ~~large~~ sun-blocking-out man who's got some ups.

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Your MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY SPARTANS vs.

THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS LONGHORNS

THE FRANK ERWIN CENTER, AUSTIN, TEXAS
7:00 P.M. (ET), TUESDAY
TV: ESPN2 (Jay Bilas!)

Longhorn bullets:

2008-09: Overall record of 23-12, 9-7 in Big 12 play, lost to Duke 74-69 in second round of NCAA Tournament, KenPom ranking of #23.
Returned 3 of 5 starters; A.J. Abrams and Connor Atchley graduated. But 7 of top 9 players by minutes played last season returned, and 3-4 freshmen are making significant contributions. This is a very deep team.
Plus they now have 5'10" guard Jai Lucas (a transfer from Florida) lurking on the bench.
Record of 10-0 to date this season. Average margin of victory of 29.8 points/game. Coming off 103-90 win over North Carolina (in a stupendous 88-possession game). Other quasi-quality win is a 16-point victory over Pitt on a neutral court.
MSU leads all-time series 3-2, having beaten Texas in each of the last three nonconference seasons. (Heroes: Neitzel, Lucas, Summers. Final entry on the list displayed in Youtube gloriousness in Fanshot below.)

In case you skimmed past the part about how deep this Texas team is:

Pos	Player	Height	Year	Min/G	Pts/G	2pt%	3pt%	FT%	Reb/G	Ast/G
G	Dogus Balbay	6'1"	Jr	23.0	4.3	0.586	0.111	0.429	4.1	4.9
G	Avery Bradley	6'2"	Fr	24.5	11.9	0.493	0.407	0.519	1.4	2.2
G	J'Covan Brown	6'1"	Fr	23.1	13.1	0.529	0.348	0.971	3.0	2.4
F	Damion James	6'7"	Sr	26.7	16.4	0.549	0.370	0.677	10.6	1.0
C	Dexter Pittman	6'10"	Sr	19.6	14.6	0.734	--	0.545	7.1	0.6

G	Justin Mason	6'2"	Sr	17.5	2.6	0.467	0.143	0.563	2.1	1.6
G	Varez Ward	6'2"	So	23.0	6.7	0.500	0.167	0.500	3.0	0.7
G/F	Jordan Hamilton	6'7"	Fr	19.1	9.8	0.469	0.341	0.636	4.3	1.6
F	Gary Johnson	6'6"	Jr	17.2	6.3	0.605	1.000	0.778	4.0	0.6
F/C	Alexis Wangmene	6'7"	So	11.6	3.8	0.615	0.000	0.600	2.9	0.2

(Notes: Ward ~~has~~ only played 3 games ~~since returning from~~ before suffering an injury. [Corrected per PB's comment below.] Gary Johnson has only attempted one 3-pointer.)

The Longhorns' depth ratio through 10 games is 1.78--which is sort of the functional equivalent of having two starting lineups.

Beyond fawning all over the length of Rick Barnes' bench, I'm going to keep the non-bulleted portion of this game preview relatively short. A lot of ground has already been covered in the questions and answers that Peter Bean and I exchanged.

When I look at Texas' tempo-free profile, I feel a lot like I did ahead of the two games vs. North Carolina last season: They're like us--but even more so. They're deep, play at the kind of break-neck pace Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious dream of, score very efficiently around the basket, and crash the glass. On defense, they've been downright stingy, holding opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 36.9%. Even controlling for a fairly pedestrian pre-UNC nonconference slate, the Longhorns rank #1 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.

And I've only scratched the surface here. Texas actually ranks in the top 50 nationally in 7 of the 8 four factor categories (everything but defensive turnover percentage, although they've got a healthy defensive steal percentage of 13.9%--so they do have some disruptive ability).

If you're going to pin your hopes on anything on the Texas side of the statistical equation, it's that they've improved in 6 of those 7 top-50 categories over their performance from last season. (I'd speculate that this phenomenon may be partially driven by the same thing that happened when Drew Neitzel graduated in 2008. As great as A.J. Abrams was, working so hard to get him open jumpshots--something Travis Walton put a stop to for most of last year's game--may have detracted from using the team's other weapons in a more cohesive and effective manner.)

Given that this is a pretty young Texas team (particularly in terms of perimeter scoring), a reversion to/past the mean resulting from a couple shaky underclassmen performances isn't out of the realm of possibilities. Oh, and they don't shoot free throws well (62.5%)--although that's kind of hard to build a defensive game plan around.

Offensively, I think we need a lot of pieces to come together. Delvon Roe has to make Dexter Pittman work on the defensive end. Raymar Morgan has to play confidently but intelligently. He doesn't need to outscore Damion James; he just needs to make it a fair fight. Oh, and we need more than one guard knocking down 3-pointers.

OK, I'm basically repeating myself. So I'll just go ahead and finish by being explicitly repetitive:

Frankly, I think a lot of things are going to have to go right for MSU to win this game. It sure looks to me like Texas can match our team speed and has two players in Pittman and James that will give us fits around the basket on both ends of the court. This game represents MSU's last chance to post a big nonconference win away from home. If such a win is achieved, it will have been fully earned.

P.S. KenPom says Texas wins 85-66 in 77 possessions. But who cares what some fancy arithmetic says, right? Players play. Tough players win.

Back in Action: Michigan State 80, IPFW 58

KJ@theonlycolors — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 05:22:24 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

"And for my next trick . . ."

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Michigan State beat the slow-start knock tonight, jumping out to a 10-0 lead in the first 4 minutes of the game. After MSU built a 17-point lead with 5 minutes to go in the first half, the Mastodons made a mini-run going into halftime to get the lead to 7 points. IPFW's run was fueled by three 3-pointers in the final 3 minutes of the first half. Outside of those 3 minutes, though IPFW only hit 4 other shots from beyond arc; they were 7-27 on 3-point attempts for the game.

All in all, it was a pretty solid performance by the Spartans coming off the finals-week break:

College Basketball

MSU outperformed IPFW in all four factors. The one area of relative weakness was rebounding. Led by Deilvez Yearby's 15 rebounds (5 on offense), the Mastadons kept the battle on the boards pretty even. That (among other things) is a concern going into Tuesday's game agains the Longhorns, who bring a lot more beef to the table than the Mastodons did (more on that below).

Player bullets (official box score is here):

Balanced scoring attack today. Delvon Roe and Raymar Morgan led the way with 14 points each, but 9 Spartans scored at least 5 points.
Roe looked particularly comfortable on offense today, making 5 of 7 FG attempts and all 4 of his shots from the free throw line. Also chipped in 8 rebounds and 2 steals. We're going to need him at his best against Dexter Pittman.
Neither Chris Allen nor Durrell Summers got into a good rhythm today: 15 points combined on 3-11 FG shooting Allen was out of sorts on defense, too, picking up 4 fouls.
Four turnovers for Korie Lucious in 22 minutes. Too sloppy.
Morgan struggled a bit in guarding Yearby (25 points on 21 FG attempts), eventually fouling out. That's a concern going into the presumed individual match-up with Damion James. Good night on offense, though: 5-7 FG shooting, 4 assists (all in that opening run, interestingly enough).
[Repeat bullet alert] Draymond Green stuffs the stat sheet: 6 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists (!), 1 turnover, 5 steals (!).
Relatively quiet game for Kalin Lucas: 10 points, 5 assists.
Garrick Sherman with the best game of his career to date: 8 points and 2 rebounds in 8 minutes. I really don't understand why he's not getting more minutes in games like these, considering that we're going to need him to play substantial minutes against conference opponents with two legitimate big men. After playing 3 minutes to start the game, he only played another 5 minutes over the remaining 37 minutes of game time.
Very good team free throw shooting performance today: 20-25 -- 19-21 if you remove Derrick Nix's (for him, relatively good) 1-4 shooting line.

So MSU somehow managed to dominate the game statistically even though I wasn't (apparently) all that impressed with many of the individual player performances. Two reasons for that, I suppose. First, this was a 74-possession game, so MSU was better on defense than they were on offense, Second, I'm writing this recap after having watched our next opponent rack up 103 points against the University of North Carolina Tarheels. (12 offensive rebounds for Dexter Pittman?! Gulp.) MSU's going to need a more complete performance Tuesday night, with more than just 3-4 players showing up on offense and the entire playing rotation showing up on defense.

But I'm getting ahead of myself. MSU played well enough to win comfortably today. We'll wait at least 24 hours before talking (in any more detail than I already have) about the discomfort Tuesday night's opponent is likely to cause.

Up Next: The Texas Longhorns. In Austin. 7:00 Tuesday night. ESPN2.

P.S. In other dispirting results elsewhere in the country, our one quality win took a bit of a hit today, with Gonzaga laying a huge egg in Madison Square Garden (although it sure looked like Matt Bouldin's recent concussion was a major factor in the egg-laying.)

P.P.S. Major positive in Breslin Center happenings today: William Gholston decked in green and white, sitting next to Mark Dantonio in the stands.

Tempo-Free Overanalysis: The Sequel

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 02:34:02 -0000

Last night, I overanalyzed MSU's individual tempo-free numbers. Tonight, I'll overanalyze the team-level numbers. (The tempo-free primer is here, in case you missed it.)

On Offense

The team's adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.6 (23rd nationally) is right in line with last season's figure of 115.0 (20th). MSU hasn't lost an inch in the offensive rebounding department (43.9%, 7th nationally) and is showing substantial improvement in its effective field goal percentage (55.2%).

The team's 2-point shooting percentage of 56.6% is a full 8 points higher than the figure posted last season. Draymond Green and Delvon Roe are scoring efficiently inside, and Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen have showed remarkable accuracy when they've ventured inside the 3-point arc. There's some concern the efficient interior scoring will disappear when we start playing teams that can match/exceed our size inside (the team ranks 7th in the nation in lowest percentage of offensive shots blocked), but to date the shooting struggles against quality opponents have been from 3-point range (combined 7-41 vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC), not 2-point range (83-154).

Overall, the team's 3-point accuracy has been middling: 34.0%. And the team is actually taking slightly fewer 3-pointers than it did last season (26.1% of total FG attempts vs. 26.6% last season), despite Korie Lucious filling in a lot of the minutes Travis Walton left behind.

Offsetting the increased 2-point scoring efficiency has been a marked reduction in the number of trips to the free throw line. The team's free throw rate of 35.7 ranks just 195th in the country. Expect to see that number go up, while the 2-point shooting number goes down, as the team heads into Big Ten play. MSU ranks just 269th in the nation in free throw percentage at 64.4%--although that number's actually pretty remarkable when you consider it includes Derrick Nix's 2-23 performance at the charity stripe.

Finally, the turnover percentage number looks pretty good in the aggregate: 20.0%. But there's been a lot of volatility over the 10 games: 5 games below 17 percent, 3 above 25 percent. Included in the latter category are the giveaway explosions versus Gonzaga and Florida.

On Defense

The adjusted defensive efficiency figure of 90.9 (44th) is lagging well behind last season's figure of 88.4 (10th). The initial instinct would be to chalk that up to the graduation of Travis Walton. But the area in which Walton made the biggest contribution--limiting the number of good looks opposing scorers got at the basket--is actually looking pretty good. Opponents are shooting just 43.4% from 2-point range and 30.4% from 3-point range.

The issue to date has been the number of shots opponents have been allowed to take. MSU is creating a turnover on just 18.3% of possessions and allowing opponents to gather 29.3% of missed shots. That second number is still pretty good, ranking 60th in the country, but it falls short of the 27.3% figure posted last season (11th best in the country). No opponent has posted an offensive rebounding percentage above 35%.

Going forward, we'll see if the team is more like the 2008 Spartans, who were very good on the offensive glass but just OK on the defensive glass, or the 2009 Spartans, who were excellent on both ends of the court. That may be a stretch, given that Green and Roe are both rebounding the ball more efficiently than they did last season on the defensive end (and Raymar Morgan isn't too far behind his 2009 figure); the lack of interior depth is an issue here.

While Tom Izzo-coached teams have never relied heavily on creating turnovers, it would be good to see the team's defensive turnover percentage inch up a little. Morgan, Lucas, Green, and Roe are all posting decent steal percentages, though, so it's unclear how to make that happen; it's not necessarily a lack of aggresiveness.

On a positive note, MSU isn't allowing opponents to get to the free throw line as much as they did last season--although the similar-sized reductions in free throw rate on both sides of the ball could just be an indication of the less-physicial nature of nonconference play.

Summing Things Up

Most of the numbers above don't come as much of a shock. As expected, this team looks better on offense than it does on defense. Setting the Gonzaga/Florida/UNC games aside, MSU has posted an offensive efficiency figure no lower than 109.9 against its seven lower-tier opponents.

You can argue, however, that's it been offensive inconsistency in the areas of 3-point shooting and turnovers that have resulted in the two losses against good opponents and the need for a big home-court comeback against the third quality foe the team's faced.

Given the lack of depth and (experienced) height down low, the ceiling on this team's defensive prowess probably isn't as high as those of the last few MSU teams (although at least marginal improvement will be needed to contend in conference and tournament play). That means the margin for error on offense will be fairly small. Being as good as last season's team on offense won't cut it; they're going to need to be better.

The positive spin here is that this team could be undefeated with just a few more 3-pointers and/or slightly fewer turnovers against Florida and UNC. The negative spin is that the team has yet to put together a complete offensive performance against a team with comparable talent. Another opportunity to make that happens comes in just 6 days.

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:07:36 -0000

Why is it the most wonderful time of the year?

Well, among other reasons, because individual tempo-free numbers are up at KenPom!

It's obviously still very early--with just 400 minutes of basketball under the belts of the 2009-10 Spartan basketball team (and only 120 of those against BCS-conference-level competition)--so the numbers are still what economists would call "advance." But, hey, they're new numbers. So we must analyze them.

Player bullets after the jump (explanation of individual tempo-free numbers is here):

Kalin Lucas' shooting numbers are looking pretty spiffy: .557/.429/.756. Having more offensive options on the floor this season may be helping boost his 2-point shooting percentage, as he doesn't have to try to manufacture shots late in the shot clock as often as he did last season. His assist rate is down a bit (even more so compared to where it was during nonconference play last season), a function of playing at the 2-guard spot alongside Lucious more often.
Draymond Green ranks in the top 500 nationally in 7 different tempo-free categories. But we've already waxed poetic on his efficiency.
Durrell Summers is the only player among the top 7 Spartans (by minutes played) with an offensive rating below 114. His stands at just 95.9. His 2-point (.492) and free throw (.840) percentages are pretty solid, though. Three-point shooting (.240), offensive rebounding (4.9), and turnovers (23.3) are the areas that need to improve.
Raymar Morgan's numbers are pretty good considering the injury issues early on: offensive rating of 114.8, contributing on the boards (10.4/16.6), steal rate at 2.8. It's all about finding some level of consistency: 4 games with 16+ points, 3 with 4 points or fewer.
Derrick Nix is sporting a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 20.0 and a nice block rate of 6.0 in his limited minutes. I don't think I need to mention what his statistical weakness is, do I?
Chris Allen is a "role player"? His Shot% is down from 28.4 last season to 22.0 this season. The upside is he's shooting a very efficient .647 from 2-point range and an acceptable .364 from beyond the arc. The downside is he's completely disappeared against good compeititon: total of 14 points vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC.
Delvon Roe's got some nice numbers for a guy who went scoreless in his first two (concussion-affected) games: top 150 in both offensive/defensive rebounding percentage, as well as block percentage, and a .604 two-point shooting percentage.
Korie Lucious is doing exactly what he needs to do from a statistical standpoint: distributing the ball with frequency (assist rate of 32.1) and keeping the turnovers down (TO% of 17.8, way down from last year's 32.0).
Austin Thornton is turning the ball over (26.2) and fouling too much (10.0 fouls created per 40 minutes) when he gets on the floor.
Garrick Sherman's numbers are decent (2pt% of .542, OffReb% of 13.9), especially considering a fairly high percentage of his minutes have come at the starts of games.
Isaiah Dahlman is leading the team in offensive rating at 135.8 (hitting 3 of 6 three-point attempts). But he still doesn't find a way to get involved in the offense with regularity when he's on the floor: usage rate of 11.8.

We'll leave off there and take a look at some of the team-level numbers later this week. It's never good to open all your present at once, right?

It's All About Poise: Michigan State 69, The Citadel 56

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 03:18:22 -0000

More photos » by Mic Smith - AP

Taking the hit, keeping your poise. (Hey, how 'bout all that green in the background?)

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Game Thread Comment of the Night:

Generally you want teams to take the 25-footer

by Con-T on Dec 7, 2009 5:32 PM PST

The Citadel players didn't seem to mind taking their shots from 25 feet out for most of the game, knocking down their first 7 three-point attempts, 8 of 10 attempts in the first half, and 12 of 20 for the game. No Bulldog player who attempted a 3-pointer shot less than 50% from 3-point range. There were a few MSU defensive lapses leading to open looks (the worst being an attempted defensive switch by Chris Allen on a nonscreen situation), but there were more quick-release shots by Bulldog players from 3+ feet behind the line.

There's only so much a defense can do against a team hitting almost every shot they take from beyond the arc. If you extend the defense beyond the 3-point line, you'll give up points in the lane (or more 3-pointers on kick-outs). Example: Late in the game Zach Urbanus (who hit his first 4 three-point attempts), pump faked his man 6 feet behind the 3-point line and drove toward the basket to knock down a mid-range floater.

Instead, MSU played good interior defense, limiting The Citadel to a 2-point shooting percentage of just 25.0% (7-28; 3-15 if you remove Cameron Wells from the equation). Meanwhile, they kept the turnover battle close (22.2% to 16.7%) and dominated on the boards (52.2% to 25.0%).

Offensively, the MSU players shot the ball very efficiently, making 56.3% of 2-point attempts, 50.0% of 3-point attempts, and 64.3% of 28 free throw attempts. It's no small feat to post a better eFG% than an opponent that makes 60.0% of its 3-point attempts.

NCAA Basketball Stats

So I'm going to chalk this game up as a success: A poised, efficient performance (1.28 PPP in just 54 possessions) in a raucous road venue against a team that was unconscious from 3-point range for 30 minutes.

Player bullets (official box score is here):

Kalin Lucas played like the Big Ten POY tonight: 17 points on 6-9 FG shooting and 6 assists (4 turnovers, though). A couple absolute daggers down the stretch. Super-smooth behind-the-back layup on the fast break.
Raymar Morgan was fairly quiet after the first few minutes but finished with 11 points and 10 rebounds.
Very good game from Delvon Roe: 9 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 turnovers, 2 steals, 1 block. Very active defense against the perimeter-based Bulldog attack. Good aggressiveness attacking the basket on offense.
This qualifies as a quiet Draymond Green performance: 9 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 turnover, 1 block.
Combined 12-16 FT shooting from Roe and Green. We'll take it.
Chris Allen: Good when shooting ball (9 points on 6 FGA), bad when driving into traffic (4 turnovers).
Durrell Summers was the invisible man: zero points and 2 rebounds in 19 minutes. Not exactly the tempo he likes to play at, but we're going to need a lot more than this out of him in Big Ten play.
More Garrick Sherman, please: 4 points in 8 minutes on a couple nifty moves going to the basket. Tom Izzo seems resigned to playing Roe and Green close to 30 minutes each up front, but I don't see how we get through the entire season with that plan. Morgan's better at the 3 spot than the 4. Sherman needs experience before we get into conference/NCAA play.
Korie Lucious hit a couple 3-pointers at big moments. Good bounce back from 4-15 FG shooting in last two games.
Derrick Nix missed another two free throws. 1-20. Ugh.

Next up: Back to the friendly confines of the Breslin Center for a match-up with the Oakland Grizzlies. Thursday at 7:00. Big Ten Network.

Whatever that Means: Michigan State 72, Wofford 60

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 04:53:52 -0000

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Isaiah Dahlman gets on the board.

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My viewing of this game was delayed, incomplete, and half-hearted--so we'll go straight to bullets (official box score is here):

As expected, Raymar Morgan (19 points on 11 FGA, 11 rebounds) and Draymond Green (12 points on 8 FGA) were able to score efficiently against the undersized Terriers.
Good 3-point shooting from Kalin Lucas (13 points on 2-5 three-point shooting, 9 assists) and Chris Allen (11 points on 3-5 three-point shooting).
Isaiah Dahlman got 12 minutes (and the start) against his younger brother's team, but only scored one bucket (on one shot). Sort of the story of his career--just never has found a way to get involved in the offense. Nice story tonight, though.
Meanwhile, Noah Dahlman was the only consistent scoring option for Wofford, scoring 19 points on 8-13 two-point shooting. The rest of the Terriers combined for just 7 made 2-pointers (on 24 attempts).
Turnovers were the big problem for MSU--and the reason Wofford was able to hang around until the final 10 minutes. 19 turnovers in 65 possessions (TO%=29.2). Six Spartans turned it over 2 or more times. They looked pretty sloppy on offense all night.
MSU dominated the shooting percentage and rebounding categories to offset the 17-percentage-point gap in the turnover department.

NCAA Basketball Stats

This was definitely one of those less-than-perfect performances I thought we might see over the next few games. I really have no idea whether the turnover issues are a major cause for concern beyond the concerns we already had. It's the first turnover percentage above 19% MSU has posted against a non-BCS/Gonzaga opponent, for whatever that's worth.

I'll let those who watched the game more intently chime in with their reactions.

Next up: ~~The Citadel visits the Breslin Center.~~ MSU visits Charleston, SC to play The Citadel. Monday at 7:00. ESPNU.

Oh, What a (Horrific) Night: North Carolina 89, Michigan State 82

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 05:38:36 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

If he was the question, we had no answer.

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On a night when it appears the bottom may have fallen out of the MSU football team, I guess a single-digit loss on the home floor of the most dominant college basketball program in the country isn't quite so worthy of teeth gnashing.

But it was still mighty painful.

North Carolina almost literally couldn't miss in the first half, building a 50-34 lead on 64.3% two-point shooting and 60.0% three-point shooting. MSU scrapped in the second half, getting the lead down to as low as 6 in the final 2 minutes. But the basketball gods seemed predisposed against us, as break after break went the other way. (Example: Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan running into each other on a back court steal opportunity that would have resulted in the lead being cut to 4.)

Given how well the Tarheels played on offense--not just taking full advantage of their height inside (36 points for Ed Davis and Deon Thompson on 22 FGA) but hitting from the perimeter, as well (18 points for Larry Drew II on 7 FGA)--you could argue that MSU shouldn't hang its head over this one. They did manage to score 82 points in a 78-possession game.

But what disappointed me--and the reason I don't think this loss can be easily swept away--is the lack of composure shown by the Spartan players at key moments. With the amount of experience MSU has among its perimeter players, they needed to do a better job of knowing when to push things and when to step back and let the game settle down. Kalin Lucas made more out-of-control plays than he has since he was a freshman, taking ill-advised off-balance shots (6-17 from the field) and narrowly avoiding turnovers after dribbling into crowds in the lane. I credit Raymar Morgan for his aggressiveness on offense (18 points on 10 FGA) but he also made some very poor decisions along the way (5 turnovers). And the 2-20 three-point shooting line the team posted was a sign, to me, of a lack of confidence.

MSU was the veteran team in this game, but (until the final couple minutes) they could never take the role of aggressor away from the less-experienced Tar Heels.

Bullets (unofficial box score is here):

18-54 FG shooting from the four MSU guards. So much for the best back court in the country.
Draymond Green is the one constant on this team: 13 points on 8 FGA, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, zero turnovers. He did end up fouling out against the taller UNC post players, but his position defense was quite good for most of the game.
Had to be tough for Delvon Roe to foul out against the guys he declined to be the teammates of. 10 rebounds and 5 steals for Roe, though. A couple pretty explosive moves to the basket, too.
Credit to Durrell Summers for bouncing back from a horrible start to end up with 16 points on 17 FGA. Only Spartan to hit a 3-pointer tonight. (Lucious hit a couple very long 2-pointers early on.)
Chris Allen, on the other hand, never recovered from his early 3-point misses. Complete non-/negative factor late in the game. Allen is now a combined 6-21 from the field in the 3 games against quality opposition. Very worrisome.
5 assists to zero turnovers for Korie Lucious, but 0-5 three-point shooting was a killer.
Didn't we used to have, like, a bunch of set plays? Way too much one-on-one play tonight. The failure to get a shot off after the timeout with 13 seconds left on the shot clock (and the lead at 8, I think) was particularly grating. Have to pin a little of that on Tom Izzo (although I'll go easier on him than I did in the Florida game recap).
Not sure what to say about the defense. Hopefully, we don't face many more teams this season that can take advantage of our lack of height like UNC did tonight. Seems like a limiting factor once we get to NCAA Tournament time, though--unless Green and Roe can get really, really good at position defense or Garrick Sherman and Derrick Nix make some really big strides over the next three months.
If I'd have told you before the the game the team would post a TO% of 14.1%, would you have said we'd win? Yeah, you would have.

NCAA Basketball Stats

At this point, I think expectations have to be reset. This is not a top-5 team right now--and it's not going to be at any time in the immediate future. They've got four games to get things together before the final shot at a quality nonconference win away from home (vs. Texas on the 22nd).

As I mentioned in the links section of the game thread, I'm starting to tire of the constant discussion of whether MSU basketball is "elite." Time to step back, build a cohesive team, and maybe be in a position to start to compete for a Big Ten title a month from now.

Next up: The Wofford Terriers visit the Breslin Center. Friday at 7:00. Big Ten Network.

MSU 106, UMass 68: Afterglow Thread

LVS — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 02:12:51 -0000

More photos » by Tim Larsen - AP

Would have been more useful last night, but hey, c'est la vie.

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Your Spartans truly took out their frustrations against UMass tonight, winning in convincing fashion to take third place in the Legends Classic. State literally ran away from UMass in the first half, displaying a frequently-dominant transition offense punctuated by a 30-3 run. Perhaps most encouraging is that the three players who struggled the most yesterday -- Chris Allen, Raymar Morgan, and Korie Lucious -- rebounded with strong performances tonight, scoring 18, 17, and 13 points, respectively. State hit 14 of 22 from behind the arc, led by four each from Allen and Kalin Lucas; undoubtedly, the eFG will be quite gaudy for the second night in a row. Only surrendering 11 turnovers in a game which surely had a ton of possessions is another big improvement from the Florida game.

NCAA Basketball Stats

You know it's a one-sided game when the lead is 90% safe with 14 minutes to go . . .

Of course, tonight also marks the ascension of Tom Izzo to the top of MSU's coaching list: his 341st win vaults him over Jud Heathcote. It's a bit of an anticlimax, as the accomplishment would be much sweeter without the bitter taste of last night's game. But, it's nonetheless still a great accomplishment, and congratulations to Mr. Izzo; here's to many, many more.

State wins. Up next: North Carolina.

340 and Counting: Michigan State 90 Valparaiso 60

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:46:32 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Record, all-time wins by head coach, Michigan State University: 340 (tie), George Melvin Heathcote and Thomas Izzo (pictured).

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[Note: Another disjointed viewing experience: Listened to first half on the radio live (Matt Steigenga's becoming a really good color guy, BTW), watched second half live, went back and watched first half on DVR.]

Michigan State puts together a complete 40 minutes: 18-point halftime lead, stretched to 30 at the final buzzer. Straight to the player bullets (official box score is here):

Chris Allen is playing with as much confidence as he's ever had: 22 points on 10 FG attempts.
Delvon Roe is good to go: 10 points, 17 rebounds (7 on offense), 4 blocks.
Korie Lucious: 9 assists, giving him 23 for the season vs. just 3 turnovers. Man, did he drop some dimes today. Best pure passer of the Tom Izzo era?

Raymar Morgan: 9 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, and most importantly 28 minutes played. With four more days to get healthy, he should be pretty close to 100% for the Gators on Friday.

Kalin Lucas is Kalin Lucas: 15 points on 8 FG attempts, 3 assists, 2 steals.

Durrell Summers: 10 points, 1 scary moment.

Even when Draymond Green has a quiet game, he stuffs the stat sheet: 8 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover, 1 block, 1 sheet. He's the anti-Mark Titus: he tries to fill every column in the box score.

We won't hit all of the other 7 guys to play in this game (none in double-digit minutes, as Izzo stayed pretty small throughout the game vs. the undersized Crusaders). It does look like Tom Izzo is making a conscious effort to give Austin Thornton a chance to earn a spot at the bottom of the playing rotation. 8 minutes and 4 FG attempts (only 1 made) today. They ran a set play for him off the timeout with a minute left in the first half, but he missed the open 15-footer.

This was a 68-possession game, so the offense was more spectacular than the defense--particularly when you consider that the Crusaders hit only 4 of 23 three-point attempts, missing some pretty good looks off bad MSU defensive switches/hedges along the way. Four factors graph:

NCAA Basketball Stats

MSU beat Valparaiso handily in all three of the factors besides turnover percentage. The execution against the Crusader zone was particularly good, resulting in a 2pt FG% of 61.0% and a 3pt FG% of 41.2%.

And the Spartan TO% of 19.1% was acceptable. No MSU player turned it over more than twice. Generally, it's encouraging that a higher percentage of our turnovers seem to be of the trying-to-create-something variety (as opposed to the no-purpose-brain-freeze variety) this season.

Minor gripe: The defense on in-bounds plays under the basket could use some work. Valparaiso got easy looks going down the lane several times today. Does having the defender guarding the in-bounds passer turn his back to try double team cutters really work better than just having him pressure the ball so the passer can't get a good passing angle to a player in the lane?

Next up: The actual whether-you-win-makes-a-difference-in-who-you-play-next phase of the Legends Classic. Atlantic City. The Florida Gators. Friday at 8:00. HDNet (check here to figure out if you get it or to find a sports bar that does).

Houdini Act: Michigan State 75 Gonzaga 71

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 05:07:22 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

We'll take it.

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First off, that's an excellent Gonzaga team--a team that's only going to get better as the season goes on. I was skeptical that their new starters up front could be major offensive threats. I was wrong. Robert Sacre and Elias Harris combined for 34 points on 28 FG attempts. I had hoped the MSU big men could play the Gonzaga big guys even, but it wasn't even close. Green/Roe/Nix/Sherman combined for just 14 points.

And Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray are playmakers. As fantastic as the plays Durrell Summers made on offense late in this game were, the defense he and Allen played on Bouldin and Gray throughout the game may have actually been the key factor in escaping with the win. Bouldin/Gray combined to shoot just 8 of 29 from the floor. If one or both of those guys is allowed to get hot, MSU probably has no chance to come back and win this game.

As it was, it took every ounce of moxie the Spartans had to come back from the early hole they dug for themselves. The hope had been that a young Gonzaga team would come out and be overwhelmed by the Bresin Center atmosphere. But quite the opposite scenario played out in the early minutes. MSU turned the ball over 10 times in the first 11 minutes of the game en route to falling behind by double digits.

They scrapped their way back to within 5 points at the half, struggled to get over the hump in the second half as the Bulldogs seemingly had an answer for everything the Spartans threw at them, and finally landed the big punch in the final four minutes, closing the game on a 10-4 run.

Three players accounted for 56 of MSU's 75 points (official box score is here):

I expected almost nothing from Raymar Morgan tonight, after how poorly he played in the opener. Thankfully, my expectations were way off. He showed up big tonight, playing with an aggressiveness and composure the rest of the team was sorely lacking early in the game. He finished with 16 points on 10-11 FT shooting and 5 rebounds in 22 minutes, shaking off a pretty significant-looking sprain to his right (previously healthy) ankle late in the second half. Also: He got absolutely hosed on that 5th foul--and the 4th one was pretty questionable, too.
Kalin Lucas didn't have his A game tonight--a lot of floaters in the lane that didn't have much chance to go in. Yet he still posted a decently-efficient offensive line: 19 points (on 16 FG attempts), 5 assists, 3 turnovers. And this was nice:
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GOOD! LAYUP by Lucas, Kalin [PNT]               00:39  73-70  H 3
```

Durrell Summers. The human highlight reel: Multiple twisting mid-range makes, stupendous-vertical-leap blocked shot, huge 3-pointer to take the lead with 3 minutes to go, two absolutely pure free throws to seal the deal. 21 points on 8-9 (!) FG shooting, 11 rebounds. Player. Of the game.

The contributions were much less consistent among the other seven Spartans who saw the floor. Positive spin: Imagine how good we'll be if we can get 5-6 guys to contribute offensively.

Chris Allen: Limited offensive contributions (5 points on 7 FG attempts; 2 three-point attempts blocked). Stayed on the floor for 30 minutes, though, because his defense was so solid.
Korie Lucious: Didn't score; missed all 3 shots he took from beyond the arc. Didn't make any mistakes with the ball, though: 2 assists, zero turnovers. Only played 16 minutes--I think because Izzo didn't want both him and Lucas on the floor defensively due to the Bouldin/Gray big guard combo.
Draymond Green: 6 points, 10 rebounds. Played big down the stretch defensively in the hyper-small Lucas/Allen/Summers/Morgan/Green lineup. But needs to let things come to him offensively. Forced some bad passes: 1 assist vs. 4 turnovers.
Derrick Nix: Played better defensively than offensively. Three blocked shots; impressed with how well he moves his feet away from the basket. Grabbed 4 offensive rebounds, but couldn't turn them into points (0-4 from the FT line).
Garrick Sherman: Did I miss an injury here? Scored 4 points early on, 2 on a very nifty post move. Did not play after the 18-minute mark of the second half.
Delvon Roe: Another horrific performance. Fouled out and turned the ball over 4 times in 12 minutes. He's too talented/smart not to pull it together at some point. Hopefully, this is just the after effects of the concussion. Looked lost on defense when he was on the floor, which is out of character.
Isaiah Dahlman: Only played 1 minute, but it was an important one--the last one. Apparently, Tom Izzo wanted to stay small after Morgan fouled out. I don't think he touched ball, which is probably a good thing given that he was coming in cold.

This was a very up-tempo game: 77 possessions. (Tonight: MSU defense > MSU offense.) So MSU's 20 turnovers weren't quite as bad as you might think. But they were still pretty bad: TO% of 26.0%. Given that Gonzaga only turned it over 11 times and almost rebounded MSU to a draw (OffReb% of 32.6% vs. MSU's 36.1%), MSU had a lot of ground to make up in the shooting categories. Luckily, Gonzaga made only 4 of 18 three-point attempts, contributing to their poor eFG% of 38.6%. And MSU managed to get to the line 31 times (FT rate=54.4%)--led by Morgan--making 22 of those attempts.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Even with the early injury issues, it would have been pretty disappointing to drop this game at home. The Bulldogs did everything in their power to make that happen, and the inability of the MSU players--the guards, in particular--to keep things under control early on is perplexing. But ultimately, three guys who need to make plays for this team to be successful made a series of enormous plays. All things considered, you have to chalk this game up as a positive early-season experience.

(Note that I managed to get all the way through this recap without using that TV-announcer-friendly word that rhymes with "sad versity.")

Next Up: A hopefully-much-less-blood-pressure-raising match-up against the Toledo Rockets in the first round (but not the first round in the sense that losing means you don't advance to the second round or even means you don't get to play Florida in the third round) of the Legends Classic. 6:30, Friday night. The Breslin Center. Big Ten Network.

P.S. We're not alone in the "Expected National Championship Contenders Who Struggled to Beat an Unranked-but-Tradtionally-Nationally-Elite, Non-BCS-Conference Team" club.