SB Nation - Chris Allen

Tempo-Free Overanalysis: The Sequel

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 02:34:02 -0000

Last night, I overanalyzed MSU's individual tempo-free numbers. Tonight, I'll overanalyze the team-level numbers. (The tempo-free primer is here, in case you missed it.)

On Offense

The team's adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.6 (23rd nationally) is right in line with last season's figure of 115.0 (20th). MSU hasn't lost an inch in the offensive rebounding department (43.9%, 7th nationally) and is showing substantial improvement in its effective field goal percentage (55.2%).

The team's 2-point shooting percentage of 56.6% is a full 8 points higher than the figure posted last season. Draymond Green and Delvon Roe are scoring efficiently inside, and Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen have showed remarkable accuracy when they've ventured inside the 3-point arc. There's some concern the efficient interior scoring will disappear when we start playing teams that can match/exceed our size inside (the team ranks 7th in the nation in lowest percentage of offensive shots blocked), but to date the shooting struggles against quality opponents have been from 3-point range (combined 7-41 vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC), not 2-point range (83-154).

Overall, the team's 3-point accuracy has been middling: 34.0%. And the team is actually taking slightly fewer 3-pointers than it did last season (26.1% of total FG attempts vs. 26.6% last season), despite Korie Lucious filling in a lot of the minutes Travis Walton left behind.

Offsetting the increased 2-point scoring efficiency has been a marked reduction in the number of trips to the free throw line. The team's free throw rate of 35.7 ranks just 195th in the country. Expect to see that number go up, while the 2-point shooting number goes down, as the team heads into Big Ten play. MSU ranks just 269th in the nation in free throw percentage at 64.4%--although that number's actually pretty remarkable when you consider it includes Derrick Nix's 2-23 performance at the charity stripe.

Finally, the turnover percentage number looks pretty good in the aggregate: 20.0%. But there's been a lot of volatility over the 10 games: 5 games below 17 percent, 3 above 25 percent. Included in the latter category are the giveaway explosions versus Gonzaga and Florida.

On Defense

The adjusted defensive efficiency figure of 90.9 (44th) is lagging well behind last season's figure of 88.4 (10th). The initial instinct would be to chalk that up to the graduation of Travis Walton. But the area in which Walton made the biggest contribution--limiting the number of good looks opposing scorers got at the basket--is actually looking pretty good. Opponents are shooting just 43.4% from 2-point range and 30.4% from 3-point range.

The issue to date has been the number of shots opponents have been allowed to take. MSU is creating a turnover on just 18.3% of possessions and allowing opponents to gather 29.3% of missed shots. That second number is still pretty good, ranking 60th in the country, but it falls short of the 27.3% figure posted last season (11th best in the country). No opponent has posted an offensive rebounding percentage above 35%.

Going forward, we'll see if the team is more like the 2008 Spartans, who were very good on the offensive glass but just OK on the defensive glass, or the 2009 Spartans, who were excellent on both ends of the court. That may be a stretch, given that Green and Roe are both rebounding the ball more efficiently than they did last season on the defensive end (and Raymar Morgan isn't too far behind his 2009 figure); the lack of interior depth is an issue here.

While Tom Izzo-coached teams have never relied heavily on creating turnovers, it would be good to see the team's defensive turnover percentage inch up a little. Morgan, Lucas, Green, and Roe are all posting decent steal percentages, though, so it's unclear how to make that happen; it's not necessarily a lack of aggresiveness.

On a positive note, MSU isn't allowing opponents to get to the free throw line as much as they did last season--although the similar-sized reductions in free throw rate on both sides of the ball could just be an indication of the less-physicial nature of nonconference play.

Summing Things Up

Most of the numbers above don't come as much of a shock. As expected, this team looks better on offense than it does on defense. Setting the Gonzaga/Florida/UNC games aside, MSU has posted an offensive efficiency figure no lower than 109.9 against its seven lower-tier opponents.

You can argue, however, that's it been offensive inconsistency in the areas of 3-point shooting and turnovers that have resulted in the two losses against good opponents and the need for a big home-court comeback against the third quality foe the team's faced.

Given the lack of depth and (experienced) height down low, the ceiling on this team's defensive prowess probably isn't as high as those of the last few MSU teams (although at least marginal improvement will be needed to contend in conference and tournament play). That means the margin for error on offense will be fairly small. Being as good as last season's team on offense won't cut it; they're going to need to be better.

The positive spin here is that this team could be undefeated with just a few more 3-pointers and/or slightly fewer turnovers against Florida and UNC. The negative spin is that the team has yet to put together a complete offensive performance against a team with comparable talent. Another opportunity to make that happens comes in just 6 days.

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:07:36 -0000

Why is it the most wonderful time of the year?

Well, among other reasons, because individual tempo-free numbers are up at KenPom!

It's obviously still very early--with just 400 minutes of basketball under the belts of the 2009-10 Spartan basketball team (and only 120 of those against BCS-conference-level competition)--so the numbers are still what economists would call "advance." But, hey, they're new numbers. So we must analyze them.

Player bullets after the jump (explanation of individual tempo-free numbers is here):

Kalin Lucas' shooting numbers are looking pretty spiffy: .557/.429/.756. Having more offensive options on the floor this season may be helping boost his 2-point shooting percentage, as he doesn't have to try to manufacture shots late in the shot clock as often as he did last season. His assist rate is down a bit (even more so compared to where it was during nonconference play last season), a function of playing at the 2-guard spot alongside Lucious more often.
Draymond Green ranks in the top 500 nationally in 7 different tempo-free categories. But we've already waxed poetic on his efficiency.
Durrell Summers is the only player among the top 7 Spartans (by minutes played) with an offensive rating below 114. His stands at just 95.9. His 2-point (.492) and free throw (.840) percentages are pretty solid, though. Three-point shooting (.240), offensive rebounding (4.9), and turnovers (23.3) are the areas that need to improve.
Raymar Morgan's numbers are pretty good considering the injury issues early on: offensive rating of 114.8, contributing on the boards (10.4/16.6), steal rate at 2.8. It's all about finding some level of consistency: 4 games with 16+ points, 3 with 4 points or fewer.
Derrick Nix is sporting a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 20.0 and a nice block rate of 6.0 in his limited minutes. I don't think I need to mention what his statistical weakness is, do I?
Chris Allen is a "role player"? His Shot% is down from 28.4 last season to 22.0 this season. The upside is he's shooting a very efficient .647 from 2-point range and an acceptable .364 from beyond the arc. The downside is he's completely disappeared against good compeititon: total of 14 points vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC.
Delvon Roe's got some nice numbers for a guy who went scoreless in his first two (concussion-affected) games: top 150 in both offensive/defensive rebounding percentage, as well as block percentage, and a .604 two-point shooting percentage.
Korie Lucious is doing exactly what he needs to do from a statistical standpoint: distributing the ball with frequency (assist rate of 32.1) and keeping the turnovers down (TO% of 17.8, way down from last year's 32.0).
Austin Thornton is turning the ball over (26.2) and fouling too much (10.0 fouls created per 40 minutes) when he gets on the floor.
Garrick Sherman's numbers are decent (2pt% of .542, OffReb% of 13.9), especially considering a fairly high percentage of his minutes have come at the starts of games.
Isaiah Dahlman is leading the team in offensive rating at 135.8 (hitting 3 of 6 three-point attempts). But he still doesn't find a way to get involved in the offense with regularity when he's on the floor: usage rate of 11.8.

We'll leave off there and take a look at some of the team-level numbers later this week. It's never good to open all your present at once, right?

Whatever that Means: Michigan State 72, Wofford 60

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 04:53:52 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Isaiah Dahlman gets on the board.

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My viewing of this game was delayed, incomplete, and half-hearted--so we'll go straight to bullets (official box score is here):

As expected, Raymar Morgan (19 points on 11 FGA, 11 rebounds) and Draymond Green (12 points on 8 FGA) were able to score efficiently against the undersized Terriers.
Good 3-point shooting from Kalin Lucas (13 points on 2-5 three-point shooting, 9 assists) and Chris Allen (11 points on 3-5 three-point shooting).
Isaiah Dahlman got 12 minutes (and the start) against his younger brother's team, but only scored one bucket (on one shot). Sort of the story of his career--just never has found a way to get involved in the offense. Nice story tonight, though.
Meanwhile, Noah Dahlman was the only consistent scoring option for Wofford, scoring 19 points on 8-13 two-point shooting. The rest of the Terriers combined for just 7 made 2-pointers (on 24 attempts).
Turnovers were the big problem for MSU--and the reason Wofford was able to hang around until the final 10 minutes. 19 turnovers in 65 possessions (TO%=29.2). Six Spartans turned it over 2 or more times. They looked pretty sloppy on offense all night.
MSU dominated the shooting percentage and rebounding categories to offset the 17-percentage-point gap in the turnover department.

NCAA Basketball Stats

This was definitely one of those less-than-perfect performances I thought we might see over the next few games. I really have no idea whether the turnover issues are a major cause for concern beyond the concerns we already had. It's the first turnover percentage above 19% MSU has posted against a non-BCS/Gonzaga opponent, for whatever that's worth.

I'll let those who watched the game more intently chime in with their reactions.

Next up: ~~The Citadel visits the Breslin Center.~~ MSU visits Charleston, SC to play The Citadel. Monday at 7:00. ESPNU.

MSU 106, UMass 68: Afterglow Thread

LVS — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 02:12:51 -0000

More photos » by Tim Larsen - AP

Would have been more useful last night, but hey, c'est la vie.

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Your Spartans truly took out their frustrations against UMass tonight, winning in convincing fashion to take third place in the Legends Classic. State literally ran away from UMass in the first half, displaying a frequently-dominant transition offense punctuated by a 30-3 run. Perhaps most encouraging is that the three players who struggled the most yesterday -- Chris Allen, Raymar Morgan, and Korie Lucious -- rebounded with strong performances tonight, scoring 18, 17, and 13 points, respectively. State hit 14 of 22 from behind the arc, led by four each from Allen and Kalin Lucas; undoubtedly, the eFG will be quite gaudy for the second night in a row. Only surrendering 11 turnovers in a game which surely had a ton of possessions is another big improvement from the Florida game.

NCAA Basketball Stats

You know it's a one-sided game when the lead is 90% safe with 14 minutes to go . . .

Of course, tonight also marks the ascension of Tom Izzo to the top of MSU's coaching list: his 341st win vaults him over Jud Heathcote. It's a bit of an anticlimax, as the accomplishment would be much sweeter without the bitter taste of last night's game. But, it's nonetheless still a great accomplishment, and congratulations to Mr. Izzo; here's to many, many more.

State wins. Up next: North Carolina.

340 and Counting: Michigan State 90 Valparaiso 60

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:46:32 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Record, all-time wins by head coach, Michigan State University: 340 (tie), George Melvin Heathcote and Thomas Izzo (pictured).

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[Note: Another disjointed viewing experience: Listened to first half on the radio live (Matt Steigenga's becoming a really good color guy, BTW), watched second half live, went back and watched first half on DVR.]

Michigan State puts together a complete 40 minutes: 18-point halftime lead, stretched to 30 at the final buzzer. Straight to the player bullets (official box score is here):

Chris Allen is playing with as much confidence as he's ever had: 22 points on 10 FG attempts.
Delvon Roe is good to go: 10 points, 17 rebounds (7 on offense), 4 blocks.
Korie Lucious: 9 assists, giving him 23 for the season vs. just 3 turnovers. Man, did he drop some dimes today. Best pure passer of the Tom Izzo era?

Raymar Morgan: 9 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, and most importantly 28 minutes played. With four more days to get healthy, he should be pretty close to 100% for the Gators on Friday.

Kalin Lucas is Kalin Lucas: 15 points on 8 FG attempts, 3 assists, 2 steals.

Durrell Summers: 10 points, 1 scary moment.

Even when Draymond Green has a quiet game, he stuffs the stat sheet: 8 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover, 1 block, 1 sheet. He's the anti-Mark Titus: he tries to fill every column in the box score.

We won't hit all of the other 7 guys to play in this game (none in double-digit minutes, as Izzo stayed pretty small throughout the game vs. the undersized Crusaders). It does look like Tom Izzo is making a conscious effort to give Austin Thornton a chance to earn a spot at the bottom of the playing rotation. 8 minutes and 4 FG attempts (only 1 made) today. They ran a set play for him off the timeout with a minute left in the first half, but he missed the open 15-footer.

This was a 68-possession game, so the offense was more spectacular than the defense--particularly when you consider that the Crusaders hit only 4 of 23 three-point attempts, missing some pretty good looks off bad MSU defensive switches/hedges along the way. Four factors graph:

NCAA Basketball Stats

MSU beat Valparaiso handily in all three of the factors besides turnover percentage. The execution against the Crusader zone was particularly good, resulting in a 2pt FG% of 61.0% and a 3pt FG% of 41.2%.

And the Spartan TO% of 19.1% was acceptable. No MSU player turned it over more than twice. Generally, it's encouraging that a higher percentage of our turnovers seem to be of the trying-to-create-something variety (as opposed to the no-purpose-brain-freeze variety) this season.

Minor gripe: The defense on in-bounds plays under the basket could use some work. Valparaiso got easy looks going down the lane several times today. Does having the defender guarding the in-bounds passer turn his back to try double team cutters really work better than just having him pressure the ball so the passer can't get a good passing angle to a player in the lane?

Next up: The actual whether-you-win-makes-a-difference-in-who-you-play-next phase of the Legends Classic. Atlantic City. The Florida Gators. Friday at 8:00. HDNet (check here to figure out if you get it or to find a sports bar that does).

Off and Running: Michigan State 97 Florida Gulf Coast 58

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 04:47:28 -0000

39-point wins do not satisfy this man.

Near Calamity: So I had the good fortune of sitting in the second row behind the scorer's table for the season opener. For a moment, though, my proximity to the court enhanced the panic that raced through my heart when Draymond Green went down with a leg injury of some sort after lunging at Reed Baker in the waning moments of the game. Green was looking right toward my section in the split second after the injury occurred. I could read his lips: "Oh, S---." And his body language was the language of a man who thinks his basketball season might be over. He was helped off the court and into the locker room with staffers supporting him on both sides.

Thankfully, he emerged from the locker room a few minutes later, strolling by my seat with no limp whatsoever on his way back to the bench. It must have been a cramp that felt like something of a more structurally-damaging nature (Rexrode confirms).

So, like, WHEW.

Elsewhere: A 39-point win is, of course, exactly what you want in a college basketball season opener. But I do have some concerns. Let's start with those. Big picture, the question marks about our interior play cropped up some in the first half. The Eagles made 9 of 15 two-point FG attempts (60.0%) before the break, and MSU only pulled down 5 offensive rebounds in the first 20 minutes. Those trends reversed themselves in the second half, as FGCU shot just 36.4% from inside the arc after the break and MSU posted a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 47.8% (on 22 offensive rebounds) for the full game, but the lack of an experienced interior player taller than 6'8" could be an issue at times this season.

One of the reasons it may have been more of an issue tonight was that Delvon Roe looked decidely less than his normal self. He was clearly still rusty as a result of the concussion he suffered in the first exhibition game, shooting 0-2 from the floor and fouling out in just 13 minutes of play.

Raymar Morgan, meanwhile, made an unexpected appearance in this game, playing 9 minutes in the first half. Unfortunately, those minutes may have set him back in the confidence department. He missed all 4 shots he took from the field, as well as all 4 shots he took from the free throw line, and turned the ball over on a travelling call in transition. He sat out the second half with a bag of ice wrapped around his ankle (some combination of precauation and a tweak to the ankle, according to Rexrode). I don't think we can expect a significant contribution from him next Tuesday.

OK, on to the good stuff (Official box score is here.):

The junior guards were on their games: 21 points for Kalin Lucas on 9-11 FT shooting, 17 points for Durrell Summers on 12 FG attempts (one more Rexrode note: ankle tweak, boo), and 10 points for Chris Allen on 8 FG attempts. Allen only shot 1-6 from behind the arc, but he showed very good judgment in terms of shooting the ball vs. pump faking and going toward the hoop.
Despite the fact that Lucas almost always ran the point when both he and Korie Lucious were in the game, Lucious posted 8 assists vs. just 1 for Lucas. 11 points on 3-7 three-point shooting for Lucious, to boot, and his defense was outstanding, stealing the ball twice, blocking a shot, and forcing a 5-second call. As he continues to work back toward 100%, Lucious is going to be a superb spark plug off the bench on both ends of the court.
Draymond Green stuffed the stat sheet: 11 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 block, 1 steal. I predict he leads the Big Ten in good passes that don't show up as assists because the recipient of the pass gets fouled under the basket. (This prediction has the advantage of being unverifiable.)
If ever the term "space eater" applied to a basketball player, it applies to Derrick Nix. 11 points and 14 rebounds in 15 minutes of play. The FGCU players couldn't do anything to get him out of the lane once he got position, and he ate them up in the second half. Has a nice knack for protecting the ball away from the basket with his body and then banking it in off the glass. Most rebounds ever by a Spartan in his freshman debut.
Garrick Sherman was unspectacular but solid: 4 points and 5 rebounds in 14 minutes.
Tom Herzog only played 7 minutes; he seems to have already fallen well below the two freshmen on the big man depth chart.
7 points in 9 minutes for Isaiah Dahlman, which is a major departure from his career points-scored-to-minutes-played ratio. Took his first 3-point shot with confidence when he entered the game in the first half; air-balled a shot from the corner in the second half, though.
Apparently the Austin-Thornton-as-a-power-forward thing is at least a little bit real, as he played a few minutes at the 4 spot in the final 10 minutes of the game. Picked up two quick fouls on attempted rebounds (one on each end), though.

As expected, this was an up-tempo game: 78 possessions. So giving up 58 points was a pretty solid defensive effort from a points-per-possession perspective. Some of that was a function of the Eagles just flat shooting the ball poorly, though. They made only 4 of 20 three-point attempts and just 12 of 25 free throw attempts. Giving up 25 shots from the free throw line to the Eagles (FT rate= 43.9%) is a little concerning, again highlighting the potential interior defense issues. Reed Baker was stymied for most of the night, scoring only 9 points on 2-10 shooting from the field.

After a fairly slow start (FGCU led after 10 minutes), MSU eventually overwhelmed the smaller Eagles, as evidenced by the 37 shots Spartans took from the free throw line. FGCU threw some zone looks at MSU to try to compensate for their lack of size, but the MSU players were pretty efficient in taking the zone apart, moving the ball around the perimeter to get good 3-point looks. There were a couple bad turnovers early, but MSU's turnover percentage for the game (16.9%) was quite acceptable.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Next up: The level of resistance increases substantially. The Gonzaga Bulldogs. Next Tuesday night at 8:00. In the friendly confines of the Breslin Center. ESPN.

P.S. As we hoped, two banners for the pre-Izzo Final Four appearances have been added to the collection of five Izzo-era banners that were unveiled at Midnight Madness.

P.P.S. The backs of our jerseys are psychedelic, man.

Preseason Musings: Expectations

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:16:38 -0000

More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

Tough to top this.

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Five Final Fours in eleven years.

It's a fabulous factoid, one that rolls off the tongue (or computer keyboard) of any and every Michigan State basketball fan with glee. It clearly establishes us as one of the elite teams of the last decade and a legitimate contender for the title of the top college basketball program over the last 10-12 years (not to mention one of the most stable programs in the country over that time).

MSU's lofty #2 national ranking going into the 2009-10 season reflects the program's status in the eyes of national observers. Regardless of how much basketball ability is housed on a team's roster, you don't get ranked that high in a preseason poll without a well-established reputation for success. Witness the other 5 teams among the consensus top 6 in the two preseason polls: Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Villanova. Those are some college basketball aristocrats.

Is the ranking justified? On paper, yes. A team that was among the top 8 regular season performers and advanced all the way to the national title game last season returns 7 of its top 9 contributors from the NCAA Tournament run. No team in the country (even Kansas, which is ranked #1 based largely on the return of two consensus All-Americans) can make a comparable statement.

But they don't play the games on paper. The question that looms over the heads of Spartan basketball fans going into Friday's regular season opener is: Can this team really be as good as we/they/everyone thinks they should be?

In spite of the 5-Final-Fours-in-11-years factoid, the program's track record in meeting high preseason expectations hasn't been all that good in recent years. The table below shows, for each of the 12 consecutive years Tom Izzo has guided the team to the NCAA Tournament, MSU's (1) preseason ranking in the AP poll, (2) ranking in the AP final poll (which occurs between the end of the regular season and the start of the NCAA Tournament), (3) seed in the NCAA Tournament, and (4) final tournament outcome.

Season	Preseason AP Rank	Pre-NCAA AP Rank	NCAA Seed	NCAA Result
1997-98	--	16	4	Sweet 16
1998-99	5	2	1	Final 4
1999-2000	3	2	1	Nat Champ
2000-01	3	3	1	Final 4
2001-02	15	--	10	1st Rd Loss
2002-03	9	--	7	Elite 8
2003-04	3	--	7	1st Rd Loss
2004-05	13	15	5	Final 4
2005-06	4	--	6	1st Rd Loss
2006-07	--	--	9	2nd Rd Loss
2007-08	8	18	5	Sweet 16
2008-09	6	8	2	Nat Runner Up

Negative spin:

MSU has not met/exceeded its preseason ranking in the final AP poll since 2001.
Between 2002 and 2008, MSU was ranked in the top 10 four times, but failed to finish higher than #18 in any of those four years.
The team went through a six-year stretch in which it was not ranked in the top 25 in the final AP poll in all but one season.
2009 was the first season in which the team earned an NCAA seed higher than #5 since 2001.

The NCAA Tournament results have continued to be as good as just about anyone's, but the post-2001 results have all come somewhat unexpectedly on the heels of relatively disappointing regular season results: making the Elite 8 as a #7 seed in 2003, reaching the Final Four as #5 seed in 2005, getting to a Sweet Sixteen by pulling off the (marginal) 5-over-4 upset in 2008, advancing all the way to the title game despite not being a #1 seed in 2009.

Contrast those events with the remarkable consistency of the Golden Era of 1999-2001: top-5 rankings in both the preseason and final AP polls, #1 seeds in the tournament, and Final Four appearances in all three seasons.

Now, to be fair, last season doesn't really belong in the negatively-spun post-2001 story I've told. The team dropped just 2 spots from its preseason ranking to its final regular season ranking, despite dealing with two pretty serious health situations along the way. The 2009 team was the first MSU squad to finish in the final AP top 10 in 8 years. All things considered, the team met expectations in the regular season--and more than exceeded them in the NCAA Tournament. The tournament run was straight out of a storybook (except for the part about the evil Tarheel attackers overrunning our defenses in the final game).

This year, the expectations are even higher. To be honest, I don't have much of an intuitive feel for whether the team will meet them. This time a year ago, in a post with a title similar to this post's, I foresaw good things: a 15-3 conference record and a potential Final Four run in the tournament. But that team just felt more like a classic Tom Izzo team: a balanced roster of 10+ players with varying skills, strengths, and levels of experience. If everyone played the role they seemed suited for (Lucas as offensive leader, Walton as defensive stopper, Suton as versatile big man, etc.), good things were almost bound to happen.

This year, the numerical depth still seems to be there, but it's not quite the same kind of depth. The departures of Travis Walton and Goran Suton mean the team's returning talent skews more toward offense than toward defense. And the additional losses of Marquise Gray and Idong Ibok mean Tom Izzo will be relying entirely on underclassmen (and an inexperienced junior in Tom Herzog) on the front line. It's less clear which roles everyone slides into this year.

Big picture, the burden is on the more experienced core of perimeter players--Kalin Lucas, Raymar Morgan, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, and Korie Lucious--to carry the team. If that happens, it will probably be more by scoring points efficiently than by preventing opponents from doing the same. While MSU has, as often as not, been better on offense than on defense in recent years, it still just doesn't feel right for a Tom Izzo-coached team to be pointing to its scoring ability as its major strength going into a season.

And, despite the relative experience of the five perimeter players, most of them are still somewhat unknown quantities. Lucas is the exception, of course. He's the returning Big Ten Player of the Year. Even if he doesn't repeat that honor, he's going to be all-conference performer and a contender to be an All-American. Raymar Morgan, on the other hand, has a much wider range of potential performance: he could plausibly be an All-American, and he could end up merely a solid second- or third-team all-conference pick.

Allen and Summers have both shown flashes of offensive-star ability in their first two seasons, but it remains to be seen whether they can become consistent starter-level contributors on a national contender. Finally, Lucious could form a lethally-quick and efficient backcourt combo with Lucas, but (particularly in light of missing an offseason's worth of development due to injury) that may have to wait a year.

The collective outlook for this team is perhaps analogous to the individual outlook for Raymar Morgan: The team could, indeed, be a top-5 caliber squad that contends for a national title 5 months from now. Or it could turn out to be a talented, but flawed, team that drops 7-8 games in the regular season and only advances to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Time will tell. For now, I say we embrace the high expectations. The defensive move as a fan would be to say that last season was (almost) as good as it gets; let's not expect the same sort of success in consecutive seasons. But, if this program is truly on the path to long-term eliteness, annually-lofty expectations come with the territory.

So with high expectations fully embraced, I foresee the following:

A 12-1 nonnconference record. That means beating two good, but clearly less talented, teams (Gonzaga/Florida) in home/neutral settings and then knocking off one of two equally-talented teams (North Carolina/Texas) in more hostile settings. I'll say we beat a very young UNC team on their home court but lose to Texas in Austin.
A 14-4 conference record. We drop, at most, one game at the Breslin Center; beat Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana on the road; and pull off road wins in 2-3 games against the 6 potential NCAA Tournament teams we play on the road (no Ohio State).
That'd be good for a 26-5 record and, hopefully, at least a share of the Big Ten title going into postseason play. The Big Ten Tournament is always a crapshoot; if we're setting expectations high, though, a match-up with Purdue in the final (to perhaps break a regular season tie) would be lovely.
Nothing's guaranteed in the NCAA Tournament, which is what makes it such a fabulous sporting event, but if everything plays out to form in the regular season, nothing short of another trip to Indianapolis (hopefully as a #1 seed) would be satisfactory.

Beyond the roster-gelling issue, there are two other obvious obstacles to be overcome if the path laid out above is to be traversed. First, the plethora of injuries that is already plaguing this team has to fade fairly quickly. (Note: Things are looking a little better in that department.) Second, the Big Ten has to be good, but not too good. Michigan, Ohio State, and Minnesota all look like teams destined to be seeded somewhere between 4 and 6 in the NCAA Tournament. If one or more of them takes one more step up on the basketball ladder, getting through the conference slate with just 4 losses becomes a dicier proposition and a #1 or #2 NCAA Tournament seed perhaps slips out of reach.

Every season has its obstacles, though. Last year's team overcame those obstacles in ways that teams from the previous six seasons had been unable to (or were unable to during the regular season, at least). If this year's team can show the same resiliency last year's team did, the sky's the limit.

Six Final Fours in twelve years.

That rolls off the tongue even more smoothly, doesn't it? (Round numbers!) Let the quest commence.

Preseason Musings: What's Left to Say?

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:05:51 -0000

OR "Previewing the Season by Reviewing the Offseason"

With just barely more than a week until the regular season basketball opener, I feel like I should be providing more in the way of preview-like substance around here. But, frankly, after seven months of offseason basketball blogging, I think I'm out of things to say. This is the downside of blogging about college basketball for all 12 months of the year, I guess.

So instead of trying to manufacture something, I thought we'd just go back and look at the various statements I've made about the 2009-2010 Michigan State basketball team since April. All of you can then tell me what I've missed (or, perish the thought, been wrong about). Off we go.

On Kalin Lucas:

On offense, MSU will generally have a stronger offensive group on the floor than it did this season, as Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers consume the minutes Walton leaves behind. Hopefully, this will create more opportunities for Lucas to set teammates up for good shots and result in fewer instances in which he has to generate tougher shots late in the shot clock.

On the other end of the court, Lucas faces a substantial adjustment. During the first two years of his career, Lucas has had the luxury of not having to guard top opposing point guards most of the time, as Walton could be assigned to that task. Next season, Lucas will have to expend more energy on defense, as he becomes arguably MSU's top perimeter defender.

On Korie Lucious:

Look for Lucious to make major strides from his first season to his second. Specifically, he'll need to reduce his turnover rate and become a more consistent defender. He showed flashes of being a very good on-the-ball defender this year, but like most freshmen lacked focus at times.

The final three games of the season illustrate Lucious' potential: He scored 20 points in the 28 minutes he played against the three #1 seeds MSU faced to close the NCAA Tournament. If he can harness that scoring ability and become a more efficient ball-handler, it'll make MSU very hard to stop on offense. He'd give Tom Izzo the luxury of having an explosive point guard on the floor for all 40 minutes of every game and create defensive match-up issues for opponents when both he and Lucas are in the lineup.

On Chris Allen:

You'll note his minutes per game didn't drop as his shooting numbers fell. Tom Izzo's confidence in Allen actually seemed to grow as Allen's shooting problems increased. Defensively, his progress was particularly encouraging, as he became much less prone to mental errors. His progression was one of the keys in MSU's dramatic improvement in 3-point defense in conference play.

Going into next season, Allen's in a similar position to the one he was in last year: If he can become the consistent 3-point shooter he was billed to be entering college, he has the potential to be a 15-point-per-game scorer. The problem is that his college career is now half over and his career 3-point shooting percentage is just 33.3%. If he can move that number up near 40.0%, the potential remains for Allen to become an all-conference-level player, given the way he has progressed in other facets of the game.

On post player playing time:

Looking at the front court, this table provides further indication why Izzo will be looking for significant contributions from the trio of Sherman, Herzog, and Nix: All three are legitimate college centers. Draymond Green is obviously a 4-spot guy. He plays good positional defense but can't be expected to guard taller low-post scorers consistently (as noted by a couple commenters recently). Playing a smaller, quicker lineup with Morgan at the 4 would, then, mean Delvon Roe has to be on the floor. And at 6'8", Roe is not an ideal defender against players 6'10" and up (although Roe's improved athleticism as his knees continue to get back to 100% should help).

The math says SherHerzNix needs to contribute at least 15 minutes per game (to cover for Roe). And another 5-15 minutes will likely be needed in most games, depending on match-ups and foul trouble.

On Durrell Summers:

Unfortunately, after scoring 20 points in three games during that four-game stretch, Summers went into a prolonged scoring slump, scoring just 50 points in his next 11 games. He emerged to make some key contributions during the NCAA Tournament run, but never exceeded a scoring output of 13 points in a game.

Going into the 2009-10 season, here are the best/worse case scenarios for Summers:

Worst case: His junior year is like is sophomore year, with a tad more playing time: spectacular plays at times, inconsistent offensive contributions at others.

Best case: He makes a Morris Peterson-like jump from his sophomore to junior seasons. That four-game scoring explosion is evidence it could happen. He's got all the tools to be a consistent threat to score 15-20 points per game, grab key offensive rebounds, and become a shut-down defender.

On Raymar Morgan:

All in all, I think there's quite a bit for Raymar Morgan to build on going into his senior season--more than initially meets the eye in perusing the stats from his illness-marred junior season. If he can put the statistical efficiency from his sophomore season together with his improved attitude and aggressiveness from this past season, he could have a very special senior season.

Bigger picture, let's step back nine months in time. Last November, who would have though that MSU's top-billed preseason star would become such a limited factor in conference and postseason play and the team would still (1) win an outright Big Ten title and (2) advance all the way to the National Championship Game? There's the silver lining to Morgan's illness: It forced other guys (Durrell Summers and Draymond Green, in particular) to step up and make plays. Did that make MSU a better team last season? Probably. Will it make them a better team next season? Almost certainly yes.

On the 2009-10 Big Ten outlook:

. . . put all that together and you get the following three-months-out TOC Big Ten basketball power rankings:

Purdue

Michigan State

Minnesota

Michigan

Ohio State

Illinois

Northwestern

Wisconsin

Penn State

Indiana

Iowa

With two potential national title contenders and up to nine teams with NCAA Tournament hopes, the conference looks to be as strong as it's been at least since the 2004-05 season (when two Big Ten teams advanced to the Final Four) and maybe as far back as the 1999-2000 season (when the conference last sent seven teams to the Big Dance).

(Note: I'd probably knock Minnesota down two spots in the projected Big Ten standings at this point, given recent events in Minneapolis--although there's still certainly plenty there for Tubby to work with. The rest of the rankings still seem about right.)

On the schedule (this is Pete talking):

The home/away Big Ten game balance seems fair. 4 out of 6 home games to start, and 3 of the last 4 games are also at home.

As to difficulty, I wouldn't say the schedule seems front or back loaded. The degree of difficulty's pretty even throughout the season.

Undoubtedly you noticed that Michigan's the last game of the season. You also might be wondering if it falls on spring break, and the answer is yes. The Purdue game was at the same time last year, and judging by the Izzone's turnout to see the Boilermakers, I wouldn't be worried about a Wolverine invasion.

The last nine games could be shown on national TV. I don't know if that qualifies MSU as elite (if they aren't already), but it darn sure doesn't hurt.

Four weekend home games out of a possible nine is about the definition of fair. No complaints there either.

As to the nonconference, I can't recall MSU having an opponent as big as Gonzaga that close to the start of the season. Gonzaga just lost Austin Daye, Jeremy Pargo, and Josh Heytvelt though, so hopefully the Spartans can take advantage of a bulldog team who will be learning to play without three of their biggest stars. Also note the trip to The Citadel this year.

On Draymond Green:

. . . to what extent does his lack of height limit his upside as an interior presence? There were certainly times this past season when an opponent would grab a rebound over Green's head or turn and shoot over Green's outstretched arms. But those instances were relatively rare. Meanwhile, Green showed a knack for using savvy and positioning to overcome his relative lack of length and he posted very good rebounding numbers playing for the best rebounding team in the country.

Offensively, he showed no fear in going to the basket when presented with the chance. Note that his 2-point shooting percentage increased significantly as the season progressed and the opponents got tougher.

The old basketball maxim is that you can't teach height. But I don't think you can teach teach what Green has, either. I've said it before: Draymond Green is a basketball player. He makes plays.

On Delvon Roe:

If Roe is really back to 100% physically, the sky's the limit for him. The experts are already starting to pay attention: Jeff Goodman has him at #8 on his list of the top 25 players fans need to get to know, and DraftExpress.com couldn't find much to criticize (other than the free throw thing) in ranking him as the #12 NBA prospect in the Big Ten.

Roe has already demonstrated that he's a tough, smart, versatile basketball player. Put those attributes together with the physical talent that made him a five-star recruit and you're going to have a player who will eventually be a contender for the title of Best Big Man of the Tom Izzo Era.

On Tom Herzog:

You don't get voted runner-up for Mr. Basketball without having some decent basketball-playing abilities. And, while you certainly don't want to read too much into statistics from less than two hours of time on the court (mostly against opposing bench warmers), the tempo-free numbers above hint at the fact that Tom Herzog can do some things with a basketball.

On the offense:

Going forward, the hope would be that Delvon Roe and Draymond Green can maintain their rebounding prowess as their minutes go up, making up for the graduation of Goran Suton and keeping MSU's offensive rebounding percentage above 40 percent.

And there's reasons to be optimistic that the team can improve on the other three factors.

Travis Walton's departure will help with shooting percentages. (The loss of Walton on the defensive end will be a different story.)

A full season of a healthy Raymar Morgan and more playing time for Delvon Roe could boost the free throw rate number even higher.

And maybe, just maybe, the turnovers go down as the perimeter guys all pick up another year of experience.

On the defense:

What doesn't show up in the numbers is the effect that losing Walton and Suton may have on our opponents' effective field goal percentage. Walton's ability to shut down opponents' top perimeter scorers is something that won't be matched by any of our returning guards. And Suton had developed a knack for frustrating opposing post players in establishing position and getting good looks at the basket.

While the experience of our core group of perimeter players (Lucas, Allen, Summers, Morgan) should help some with cohesion in playing Izzo's man-to-man scheme with an emphasis on help defense, I'd have to put my money on a slight regression by the team on the defensive end. An offsetting increase in offensive efficiency may be needed to match last season's win-loss results.

On team depth:

After "toughness" and "rebounding," the word "depth" ranks right up there when you're playing word association with the name "Tom Izzo." The 2009-10 team should have it (note that we haven't even mentioned Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman, two players capable of being the 9th or 10th guys on a Big Ten contender). If anything, the challenge is to fit all the depth together, balancing out the relatively experienced group of perimeter players with the less experienced cadre of post guys.

While, of course, there really isn't a magic ratio that automatically leads to Big Ten titles and postseason success, I will posit that depth is a prerequisite for success for Izzo-coached teams. (Other coaches don't necessarily need it.) Based on what we know right now, that prerequisite has been met.

Man, am I prolific or what? (Ignore the fact that these posts were written over a period of approximately 200 days.) So what have I missed? What do you see as the key(s) to success this season? Which player's improvement is most integral to the team replicating the stupendous results of last season? Just how anxious are you to get this show started?

MSU Green-White Basketball Scrimmage Recap

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:00:29 -0000

Yay, basketball! A sport that doesn't make us think about sharp objects!

The lineup format for the scrimmage was first team (Green) vs. second team (White). The starting lineup for the Green team--and, therefore, the presumed opening game lineup at this point--was Lucas/Allen/Morgan/Roe/Herzog. In the second half, though, Summers took Allen's spot and Green took Roe's, indicating that Izzo is basically thinking of seven players as starter quality.

These things always end up being offensive showcases (although the defensive intensity was a notch up from the Midnight Madness scrimmage a week ago). Hence 149 points scored in a 40-minute game involving quite a few players who don't normally score much outside of layup lines. It doesn't look like MSU is going to post a full box score, which is fine since the stats won't tell us much anyway. Chris Allen (22), Kalin Lucas (19), and Isaiah Dahlman (18) were your leading scorers; more on them below.

One stat we do have that's encouraging is the 44.8% combined 3-point shooting percentage put up between the two teams. With Allen, Lucious, and Summers sucking up Travis Walton's minutes this year, the team will likely take substantially more shots from beyond the arc. Knocking down 3-point looks consistently will, therefore, be a bigger key to success this season.

Defensively, there wasn't much to write home about. At halftime, Tom Izzo took questions from the crowd. One of the questions was something like, "Who's your best defensive player right now?" To which Izzo replied, "We don't have one yet." Truth be told, I think the answer is going to be Delvon Roe. Now that he's close to 100% healthwise, he showed a knack for jumping into passing lanes and making steals. Combine that with his defensive rebounding prowess and the surprisingly good blocked-shot rate he put up last season, and he could well contend for a spot on the Big Ten All-Defensive Team.

Also of note: The team did play some 2-3 zone in the second half, so maybe Izzo is serious is about using it more this year in order to mask the inexperience among the post defenders.

Player-by-player impressions:

Kalin Lucas: As quick as ever. 3-point release looks a little more fluid.
Korie Lucious: I was surprised when he took the court to participate in the scrimmage, given that he's been cleared to practice for less than two weeks. But, after that initial surprise, I didn't think about his foot injury again, as he looked completely natural running the point for the White team. Very good news.
Chris Allen: Looked very confident shooting the ball and making moves going toward the basket. None of the hesitation that plagued him for a long stretch of last season. Can he maintain that over 30+ games?
Durrell Summers: Man, can he jump. At one point, someone threw a high pass to him in the corner of the court we were sitting adjacent to (in the lower student section). It looked like he was taking off to fly when he went up for the ball, which he retrieved.
Raymar Morgan: I'm not sure his game is really suited to these sorts of scrimmages, which is fine. Jumpshot looks improved, although still a bit line-drivish. Took and made at least one 3-pointer without hesitating.
Draymond Green: Has slimmed down even more. Took the ball to the hoop without fear, with mixed results. A couple fabulous interior no-look passes. Took a rare preseason-intrasquad-scrimmage charge. Ran the fast break after grabbing a defensive rebound several times. A commenter mentioned him as a point guard possibility if Lucious were to miss any time; I don't think that's out of the realm of possibilities. With the graduation of Goran Suton (who was at the scrimmage), Green is now officially my favorite Spartan.
Delvon Roe: See above regarding his defense. Free throw shooting was fine; no problems on those front-enders. Looks to have improved his mid-range shooting ability, as well.
Tom Herzog: Much more assertive on both ends of court, with a couple strong dunks off passes. Still a few awkward moments, though. Noticed in pregame warm-ups he's got really nice touch on his 15-foot jumpshot; soft release with nice rotation on the ball.
Derrick Nix: Even with the weight he's lost, he's still a load. "Laboring" is the word that comes to mind watching him get up and down the court. But when he gets the ball near the basket, he can't be stopped.
Garrick Sherman: Looked, dare I say it, somewhat Sutonesque. Good nose for finding the ball on the boards; knack for finding ways to score or get fouled down low. Seemed to fade a bit as the scrimmage went on, though. Also, not quite as big as I was thinking he was.
Isaiah Dahlman: Even before he scored his points, I thought his outside shot looked improved; quicker release, good rotation on the ball. Looking to take a leadership role as a senior, directing teammates throughout the game. Could he contribute a few big shots/plays in his final season as a Spartan?
Austin Thornton: Didn't have much impact on the game. Not buying the he's-a-power-forward-now idea. Best shot at regular PT is as a Tim-Bograkos-like defensive spark plug. Might be room for one of those with Walton gone.
Mike Kebler: He can dunk! In warm-ups, at least. Might be more athletic than I had realized and a real option to play a few minutes at PG in a pinch.
Jon Crandell and Anthony Ianni: Thank you for your willingness to play hard in practice, gentlemen.

Overall, the positive takeaway is that Herzog and the two freshmen showed quite a bit of poise and the ability to make varying contributions. My guess is that their respective shares of the playing time down low will fluctuate over the course of the season, depending on match-ups, as none of them look to have the complete package at this point. Herzog against teams with real low-post scoring threats. Sherman against smaller opponents. Nix in short stretches of 2-3 minutes to wear opposing big men down. None of the three when Izzo decides to unleash what will quite possibly be the fastest, most-athletic 1-through-5 lineup in the country with Green/Roe at the 4/5 spots.

Finally, a few amateur photos with super witty captions for your enjoyment:

Korie Lucious trying to bring back the Steve Urkel look.

Raymar Morgan's jumpshot: Now with bonus range!

Sherman thinking, "Let's impress those TOC guys with a stand-out Free Throw Rate today."

"It's just a scrimmage. Don't hurt anyone."

Best basketball player tattoo ever?

Remember this guy?

I'm open! And I can shoot now!

50 pounds later, still plenty of weight to throw around.

Nameless guard goes strong to the hoop.

Oops. Wrong photo album. Stay away from sharp objects.

BtB 2009-10 Big Ten Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 18:44:34 -0000

For all of the beating that the Big Ten took during a particularly rough and tumble regular season, the conference really validated itself in the postseason. Those March and April performances bode well for this season, especially considering that the Big Ten's main contenders didn't lose as much as the contenders in other conferences. For example, all five players on the coaches' All-Big Ten team from last season are back.

The two teams who progressed furthest in the NCAAs, national runner-up Michigan State and regional semifinalist Purdue are the clear favorites in the league, and both teams could make a serious run at a MIdwestern Final Four. Penn State, the NIT champions, will look to improve their standing enough to get into the Big Dance this time around. And of course, Northwestern will look to really shake things up in the league and make it to the NCAAs for the first time. In between, the Big Ten's other five NCAA entrants will attempt to stay in the field. The biggest thing for the conference this year is separating itself from the other BCS leagues, especially in non-conference play. With the Big Ten being hyper-competitive this year, its members really need to distinguish themselves during the early part of the season. Otherwise, teams will be clumped together on lines 8 through 12 of the bracket like last year, which doesn't bode well for sustained tourney runs. More on all 11 teams after the jump.

To refresh your memory, let's take a look at how the Big Ten standings looked at the end of the 2008-09 regular season.

Big Ten Conference Standings

(updated 4.7.2009 at 12:23 AM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Michigan St. Spartans	15	3	31	7
Purdue Boilermakers	11	7	27	10
Illinois Fighting Illini	11	7	24	10
Penn St. Nittany Lions	10	8	27	11
Ohio St. Buckeyes	10	8	22	11
Wisconsin Badgers	10	8	20	13
Minnesota Golden Gophers	9	9	22	11
Michigan Wolverines	9	9	21	14
Northwestern Wildcats	8	10	17	14
Iowa Hawkeyes	5	13	15	17
Indiana Hoosiers	1	17	6	25

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a school's name appears in red, that's a link to its SBNation site. You can go there for more detailed analysis throughout the season.

Iowa (last NCAA: 2006) The long rebuilding process continues for Todd Lickliter. It looks to be another long year in Iowa City, especially since the Hawkeyes have real point guard issues after Jake Kelly (transfer to Indiana State for family reasons) and Jeff Peterson (transfer to Arkansas) left the program. 6-1 frosh Cully Payne will have to adjust to the Big Ten game fast, as he will have to be the main option. If he doesn't, expect sophomore Anthony Tucker (10.4 ppg, 0.6 apg) to move over from shooting guard. The team's only other returning double-digit scorer, Matt Gatens (10.8 ppg), will be a force as he can really shoot the ball (40.3 % from the perimeter and 90.4 % from the free throw line). The Hawkeyes really need more contributions inside, where Jarryd Cole has battled injuries and struggled offensively, which has also been a problem for the rest of Iowa's frontline players.

Indiana (last NCAA: 2008) Tom Crean is also in a rebuilding situation, but he loaded up on recruits this offseason, something Lickliter couldn't quite do. Jeremiah Rivers, son of Boston Celtics coach Doc and a Georgetown transfer, is now eligible and will run the offense. Rivers' steady hand should improve a team that rated near the bottom of Division I in assist/turnover ratio. Meanwhile, the incoming freshmen are so highly regarded that last year's leaders may see reduced playing time. Rivers' arrival, and that of freshman Jordan Hulls, will eat into Verdell Jones' playing time (11 ppg, 3,6 apg). 6-5 Maurice Creek will take time away from Devan Dumes (12.7 ppg). In the frontcourt, Tom Pritchard (9.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg) will still see significant time, and he'll be joined by freshmen Bobby Capobianco, Derek Elston, Bawa Muniru, and Christian Watford. Considering that Crean's returning frontcourt players not named Tom Pritchard only average 0.8 ppg, they should see plenty of action. If they adjust to the Big Ten quickly, the Hoosiers may win some of those close games they tended to lose in 2008-09.

Penn State (last NCAA: 2001) You rarely see teams as happy about winning the NIT than the Nittany Lions last year. PSU had a real case for an NCAA bid, thanks to 10 league wins, but a non-conference schedule full of cupcakes cost them. On that front, the Lions hope they can get some big wins in the Charleston Classic to help their case this time around. In terms of personnel, the good news is that all-Big Ten first teamer Talor Battle (16.7 ppg, 5 apg) is back. The bad news is that his backcourt mates, Stanley Pringle (12.8 ppg) and Danny Morrissey (5.3 ppg) are gone and so is star forward Jamelle Cornley (14.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg). The effectiveness of their replacements will dictate the Nittany Lions' chances of moving up. Sophomores Chris Babb (2.8 ppg) and Cammeron Woodyard (2.2 ppg) will have to step it up to replace Pringle, but incoming freshman Tim Frazier will also play a big role in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, 6-9 Andrew Jones (6.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) is expected to increase his production to make up for Cornley's graduation, so will David Jackson. Both Jones and Jackson played key roles in PSU's NIT run. Serbian freshman Sasa Borovnjak and redshirt frosh Billy Oliver will also see lots of time inside.

Wisconsin (last NCAA: 2009) The Badgers struggled on offense and defense last year. However, Bo Ryan's team was able to right the ship after dropping six in a row in January to sneak into the tournament and grab a first round win over Florida State. However, Ryan lost two key performers off that team, swingman Joe Krabbenhoft and F Marcus Landry. Jason Bohannon (10.3 ppg, 1.7 apg) and Trevon Hughes (12.1 ppg, 2.8 apg) are back, however, so the backcourt remains in good shape, typical of a Ryan-coached team. The returning frontcourt players, led by 6-10 F Jon Leuer (8.8 ppg, 3.8 ppg) and 6-8 Keaton Nankivil (4.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg) will have to be tougher to adequately replace Landry and Krabbenhoft. Look out for the Badgers' two redshirt freshmen, Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans, as they should see significant frontcourt time as well. If the frontline improves significantly, the Badgers could go dancing for the 12th straight year.

Northwestern (last NCAA: None) While Wisconsin (and the rest of the league) has become a consistent NCAA performer, the Wildcats are the complete opposite. Once again, NU is the only team in a BCS conference to fail to qualify for a single NCAA tournament. On March 4, the men from Evanston stood at 17-11, after winning at Indiana, against Iowa at home, and at Purdue. They then managed to lose at Ohio State by 5 to finish 8-10 in the conference. If that wasn't bad enough, they then fell to Minnesota by 13 in the opening round of the conference tournament. The Wildcats cannot let something similar happen this season. Personnel-wise, the Wildcats bring back nearly everyone from last year, most importantly all-Big Ten second teamer Kevin Coble (15.5 ppg, 4.8 apg) and point guard Michael Thompson (9.9 ppg, 3.7 apg), a deadly three-point shooter (41.7%). The major loss is guard Craig Moore (14.3 ppg, 2.7 apg) who graduated. Incoming frosh Drew Crawford could slide into Moore's slot on the roster. He's the son of NBA referee Danny Crawford. If coach Bill Carmody can squeeze a little more from his returnees, who provided solid, if unspectacular and inconsistent performances throughout last season, the Wildcats will finally make the field of 65.

Minnesota (last NCAA: 2009) Expectations are high for Tubby Smith's third season in the Twin Cities. The Gophers will have to find a way to play Michigan State and Michigan better, as they didn't manage to win a single game against those two teams (0-5). The Gophers return all of their key performers from last season, including leading scorer Lawrence Westbrook (12.6 ppg), second leading scorer Damian Johnson (9.8 ppg), point guard Al Nolen (6.5 ppg, 4.3 apg), and big men Ralph Sampson III (6.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Colton Iverson (5.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Sampson and Iverson should see more time at center thanks to the arrival of 6-7 freshman Royce White and JC transfer Trevor Mbakwe, if he's ever cleared to play. Mbakwe is due to go on trial for assault in South Florida in December. Nolen could also see the bench if he's as inconsistent as he was during Big Ten play, thanks to the arrival of freshman PG Justin Cobbs. The Gophers are drawn against Butler in the 76 Classic in Anaheim, which should be a good indicator of how well this team will perform in 2009-10.

Michigan (last NCAA: 2009) Much like with Tubby Smith's Minnesota team. great things are expected in Ann Arbor during John Beilein's third season. Beilein's offensive and defensive philosophies usually take consistent hold in that third season, and the team's performance improves as a result. One of the Wolverines' biggest needs is in the frontcourt, where DeShawn Sims (15.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) was often left on an island last season. Seven-foot, redshirt freshman Ben Cronin should provide some help, as should 6-8 frosh Jordan Morgan, if he plays. Beilein may redshirt him depending on how well he's recovered from offseason knee surgery. 6-10 frosh Blake McLimans and 6-6 junior Anthony Wright may be called into duty frequently. The backcourt is the strength of this UM squad, led by all-Big Ten performer Manny Harris (16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.4 apg). Harris should get more time to drive to the hoop (and get to the foul line), thanks to the arrival of freshman Darius Morris, who is expected to take over at the point. The reserve backcourt players need to show more consistency, as none averaged more than 6.7 ppg, despite some impressive shooting nights.

Illinois (last NCAA: 2009) While the Illini lost guards Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham, the returnees and Bruce Weber's best ever recruiting class should keep the squad near the top of the Big Ten. Demetri McCarney (11.5 ppg, 4.6 apg) already has plenty of experience at the point to replace Frazier. Incoming freshman D.J. Richardson will be called on to replace Meacham, especially from the defensive perspective. Brandon Paul, another heralded recruit, will be an inside-outside threat. In the frontcourt, Mike Davis very nearly averaged a double-double last season (11.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg), so he'll continue to be a force. Mike Tisdale could be a star if he's more aggressive. He has plenty of room to improve on the 10 points and 4 boards he averaged last season.

Ohio State (last NCAA: 2009) The Buckeyes did pretty well last season, winning 22 games and making the Big Ten title game despite losing G/F David Lighty in the seventh game of the year. With Lighty back and all-Big Ten selection/jack-of-all-trades Evan Turner still around, the Buckeyes should be even better this time around. Joining Turner as offensive forces are guards William Buford and Jon Diebler who both averaged a little more than 11 points a game. While Thad Matta has a lot of guys who can shoot, he doesn't have a true point guard. Not that this issue really stopped the Buckeyes last year. Jeremie Simmons (6.8 ppg, 2.5 apg) and P.J. Hill (3.2 ppg, 1.9 apg) saw some time at the point after Anthony Crater's departure for South Florida, with Hill making more of an impact. If the two have issues, Turner, who averaged 4 assists per game last year, could spend some time running the offense. Turner will also see time in the frontcourt, where Lighty will serve as OSU's power forward (9.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg). 6-8 junior Dallas Lauderdale and 7-foot UAB transfer Zisis Sarikopoulos will occupy the post. OSU will be tested early, thanks to a matchup with defending National Champion North Carolina at the Coaches vs. Cancer event in New York, followed by a game with either California or Syracuse.

Purdue (last NCAA: 2009) The Boilermakers bring back nearly everyone from last season's team, which fell to UConn in the West regional semifinals. Thanks to the graduation of Nemanja Calasan, Matt Painter has only two returning post players. However, they're two good ones. Robbie Hummel (12.5 ppg, 7 rpg) should be fully recovered from a stress fracture in his back that cost him five games last season. Meanwhile, 6-10 junior JaJuan Johnson (13.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg) is one of the most electrifying players in the country. They'll be backed up by a crop of freshmen, led by 6-10 Croatian C Sandi Marcius. Purdue's backcourt remains intact. Chris Kramer will provide the defense, E'Twaun Moore the scoring--and some assists (13.8 ppg, 3.0 apg), while Lewis Jackson (5.9 ppg, 3.3 apg) will run the show. The Boilermakers' commitment to defense, led by Kramer, Johnson, and Jackson, is a major reason why they will seriously threaten to make the short trip to Indy this season. If they avoid the health issues of last season, they should get a seed that will help their path.

Michigan State (last NCAA: 2009) While the Boilermakers will attempt to do what the Spartans did last year, make a short trip in state to play in the season's final weekend, don't discount MSU, a team that has plenty of history of its own in Indianapolis. Tom Izzo has a team that may be able repeat Sparty's 2000 triumph. Kalin Lucas, the Big Ten Player of the Year is back at the point. Raymar Morgan is back in the frontcourt. But the biggest questions are how well the Spartan frontcourt plays without Goran Suton and who replaces Travis Walton's defensive prowess in the backcourt. Junior Tom Herzog and incoming freshmen Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman will be given every chance to fill Suton's shoes. Meanwhile, Lucas will have to play more of a defensive role this season than in the past, to make up for Walton's absence. While Lucas is the unquestioned star of the team, he'll need lots of support from players like guards Chris Allen (8.4 ppg) and Durrell Summers (8.6 ppg), and F Delvon Roe (5.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg) to make a second straight Final Four run.

So, the Spartans will hold the Big Ten's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. Check in then to see what other teams from the conference I've penciled in at the start of the season. To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-Big Ten team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-Big Ten Team

Player of the Year: Evan Turner, 6-7 G/F, Jr. (Ohio State)

Remainder of the Team
Talor Battle, 5-11 G, Jr. (Penn State)
Manny Harris, 6-5 G, Jr. (Michigan)
JaJuan Johnson, 6-10 F, Jr. (Purdue)
Kalin Lucas, 6-0 G, Jr. (Michigan State)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the Big Ten this season?

Illinois

72 votes

Indiana

4 votes

Iowa

5 votes

Michigan

12 votes

Michigan State

106 votes

Minnesota

9 votes

Northwestern

5 votes

Ohio State

14 votes

Penn State

20 votes

Purdue

49 votes

Wisconsin

4 votes

300 votes | Poll has closed