SB Nation - Austin Thornton

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:07:36 -0000

Why is it the most wonderful time of the year?

Well, among other reasons, because individual tempo-free numbers are up at KenPom!

It's obviously still very early--with just 400 minutes of basketball under the belts of the 2009-10 Spartan basketball team (and only 120 of those against BCS-conference-level competition)--so the numbers are still what economists would call "advance." But, hey, they're new numbers. So we must analyze them.

Player bullets after the jump (explanation of individual tempo-free numbers is here):

Kalin Lucas' shooting numbers are looking pretty spiffy: .557/.429/.756. Having more offensive options on the floor this season may be helping boost his 2-point shooting percentage, as he doesn't have to try to manufacture shots late in the shot clock as often as he did last season. His assist rate is down a bit (even more so compared to where it was during nonconference play last season), a function of playing at the 2-guard spot alongside Lucious more often.
Draymond Green ranks in the top 500 nationally in 7 different tempo-free categories. But we've already waxed poetic on his efficiency.
Durrell Summers is the only player among the top 7 Spartans (by minutes played) with an offensive rating below 114. His stands at just 95.9. His 2-point (.492) and free throw (.840) percentages are pretty solid, though. Three-point shooting (.240), offensive rebounding (4.9), and turnovers (23.3) are the areas that need to improve.
Raymar Morgan's numbers are pretty good considering the injury issues early on: offensive rating of 114.8, contributing on the boards (10.4/16.6), steal rate at 2.8. It's all about finding some level of consistency: 4 games with 16+ points, 3 with 4 points or fewer.
Derrick Nix is sporting a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 20.0 and a nice block rate of 6.0 in his limited minutes. I don't think I need to mention what his statistical weakness is, do I?
Chris Allen is a "role player"? His Shot% is down from 28.4 last season to 22.0 this season. The upside is he's shooting a very efficient .647 from 2-point range and an acceptable .364 from beyond the arc. The downside is he's completely disappeared against good compeititon: total of 14 points vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC.
Delvon Roe's got some nice numbers for a guy who went scoreless in his first two (concussion-affected) games: top 150 in both offensive/defensive rebounding percentage, as well as block percentage, and a .604 two-point shooting percentage.
Korie Lucious is doing exactly what he needs to do from a statistical standpoint: distributing the ball with frequency (assist rate of 32.1) and keeping the turnovers down (TO% of 17.8, way down from last year's 32.0).
Austin Thornton is turning the ball over (26.2) and fouling too much (10.0 fouls created per 40 minutes) when he gets on the floor.
Garrick Sherman's numbers are decent (2pt% of .542, OffReb% of 13.9), especially considering a fairly high percentage of his minutes have come at the starts of games.
Isaiah Dahlman is leading the team in offensive rating at 135.8 (hitting 3 of 6 three-point attempts). But he still doesn't find a way to get involved in the offense with regularity when he's on the floor: usage rate of 11.8.

We'll leave off there and take a look at some of the team-level numbers later this week. It's never good to open all your present at once, right?

Can't Handle the Pressure: Florida 77, Michigan State 74

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 05:19:01 -0000

More photos » by Mel Evans - AP

Some personal space, please!

Browse more photos »

In two years of blogging about this basketball team, I'm pretty sure I've never said anything like this:

This loss is on Tom Izzo.

When an unranked opponent shoots 5-24 from 3-point range, you simply have to find a way to win. And it's not like we didn't know Billy Donovan was going to throw the 2-2-1 press and the 2-3 zone out against us. Yet you could count on one hand the number of times it looked like the MSU players had a specific game plan for how to beat those schemes for easy baskets--despite a full four days of preparation time. The easy baskets that were created seemed more like a function of individual playmaking (e.g., Lucious passes on the drive in the first half) than by any cohesive plan of attack.

Having Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan at less than 100% certainly didn't help, but there are still four starter-quality players on this team that should be able to make plays handling the ball against pressure: Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, and Draymond Green. Instead, the game plan to beat the press ended up being "Give Kalin Lucas the ball and let him beat the press with the dribble." And that didn't work so well when Florida was able to deny Lucas the ball on the in-bounds pass. So you end up with Durrell Summers trying to back his man down the court and barely getting bailed out by a timeout call.

It doesn't happen often, but Tom Izzo got outcoached tonight. The result was a turnover percentage of 32.4% and a much-deserved loss.

Man, I really don't want to spend another season pondering why the team turns the ball over with such regularity.

From a statistical standpoint, perhaps I'm being too harsh about the lack of a well-executive offensive game plan. After all, MSU did manage to score over a point per possession (71-possession game). That was a function of efficient two-point shooting (61.7%) when they did manage to beat the Florida defensive pressure and stellar offensive rebounding (60.0% OffReb% [!]). Just imagine if we'd turn the ball over on, say, just 25% of our possessions.

Defensively, the Gators got to 77 points despite barely shooting over 20% on two dozen attempts from beyond the arc. They turned the ball over on only 15.5% of their possessions, scored proficiently in the paint (54.1% 2pt%), and got to the free throw line frequently, knocking down 22 of 25 shots from the line. The MSU defenders were much to quick to reach for the ball on drives by Florida players, picking up a series of bad fouls late in the game.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Bullets (official box score is here):

Despite having to leave the game early due to the problem with his foot, Kalin Lucas put up 20 points on 11 FG attempts. He was at his best scoring the ball tonight. Only 1 assist vs. 3 turnovers, though.
Draymond Green and Delvon Roe combined for 28 points on 13-17 FG attempts. They were the finishers on the plays when MSU was successful in beating the defensive pressures. Plus they worked hard on the boards--Green, in particular (11 rebounds, 5 on the offensive end). Unfortunately, they were also the culprits on some of the bad defensive fouls.
And Green/Roe weren't terribly unsuccessful in defending the Florida interior scorers. Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin, and Chandler Parsons were the most efficient scorers for the Gators, scoring 35 points on 22 FG attempts. I'm very concerned with how we guard the North Carolina big men on Tuesday.
Durrell Summers was pretty good tonight: 13 points on 10 FG attempts and 6 rebounds. Unfortunately, he couldn't get one of those final two 3-point attempts to drop to send the game to OT.
Beyond the four guys, I've mentioned, the rest of the team scored just 14 points tonight. That's a disturbing lack of balance.
Raymar Morgan could not get anything going against the size of the Florida front line. And his jumper wasn't dropping. Zero points on 7 FG attempts and 4 personal fouls. Another thing to worry about for the UNC game. On a positive note, he did post 5 assists tonight and played hard on both ends despite the lack of scoring performance.
I thought Izzo was a little harsh in his halftime comments about Korie Lucious, calling his play "atrocious." He had a couple bad turnovers in the first half against the press, but he was also making aggressive plays to beat the Gator zone with the pass.
Bright spot: Austin Thornton. 4 points on 2 made jumpers, an assist, and two fouls drawn on box outs. He and Garrick Sherman were the only MSU players to appear in this game and not turn the ball over.
Speaking of which: Five MSU players turned the ball over 3 or more times. Ugh.

Next up: The University of Massachusetts (which lost to Rutgers 83-75 on the other side of the bracket) in the 3rd-place/consolation/losers-bracket game. 5:30 tomorrow night. HDNet again. I'll try to get what will likely be a very brief game preview up tomorrow morning/afternoon.

P.S. Michigan State has not won a nonconference tournament away from home since 1998. And they haven't won the Big Ten Tournament since 2000. Why do we play so poorly in tournaments contained within a single week? We seem to do OK in the one that lasts more than one week.

P.P.S. 1-5 for the Big Ten today. Not good.

Preseason Musings: What's Left to Say?

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:05:51 -0000

OR "Previewing the Season by Reviewing the Offseason"

With just barely more than a week until the regular season basketball opener, I feel like I should be providing more in the way of preview-like substance around here. But, frankly, after seven months of offseason basketball blogging, I think I'm out of things to say. This is the downside of blogging about college basketball for all 12 months of the year, I guess.

So instead of trying to manufacture something, I thought we'd just go back and look at the various statements I've made about the 2009-2010 Michigan State basketball team since April. All of you can then tell me what I've missed (or, perish the thought, been wrong about). Off we go.

On Kalin Lucas:

On offense, MSU will generally have a stronger offensive group on the floor than it did this season, as Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers consume the minutes Walton leaves behind. Hopefully, this will create more opportunities for Lucas to set teammates up for good shots and result in fewer instances in which he has to generate tougher shots late in the shot clock.

On the other end of the court, Lucas faces a substantial adjustment. During the first two years of his career, Lucas has had the luxury of not having to guard top opposing point guards most of the time, as Walton could be assigned to that task. Next season, Lucas will have to expend more energy on defense, as he becomes arguably MSU's top perimeter defender.

On Korie Lucious:

Look for Lucious to make major strides from his first season to his second. Specifically, he'll need to reduce his turnover rate and become a more consistent defender. He showed flashes of being a very good on-the-ball defender this year, but like most freshmen lacked focus at times.

The final three games of the season illustrate Lucious' potential: He scored 20 points in the 28 minutes he played against the three #1 seeds MSU faced to close the NCAA Tournament. If he can harness that scoring ability and become a more efficient ball-handler, it'll make MSU very hard to stop on offense. He'd give Tom Izzo the luxury of having an explosive point guard on the floor for all 40 minutes of every game and create defensive match-up issues for opponents when both he and Lucas are in the lineup.

On Chris Allen:

You'll note his minutes per game didn't drop as his shooting numbers fell. Tom Izzo's confidence in Allen actually seemed to grow as Allen's shooting problems increased. Defensively, his progress was particularly encouraging, as he became much less prone to mental errors. His progression was one of the keys in MSU's dramatic improvement in 3-point defense in conference play.

Going into next season, Allen's in a similar position to the one he was in last year: If he can become the consistent 3-point shooter he was billed to be entering college, he has the potential to be a 15-point-per-game scorer. The problem is that his college career is now half over and his career 3-point shooting percentage is just 33.3%. If he can move that number up near 40.0%, the potential remains for Allen to become an all-conference-level player, given the way he has progressed in other facets of the game.

On post player playing time:

Looking at the front court, this table provides further indication why Izzo will be looking for significant contributions from the trio of Sherman, Herzog, and Nix: All three are legitimate college centers. Draymond Green is obviously a 4-spot guy. He plays good positional defense but can't be expected to guard taller low-post scorers consistently (as noted by a couple commenters recently). Playing a smaller, quicker lineup with Morgan at the 4 would, then, mean Delvon Roe has to be on the floor. And at 6'8", Roe is not an ideal defender against players 6'10" and up (although Roe's improved athleticism as his knees continue to get back to 100% should help).

The math says SherHerzNix needs to contribute at least 15 minutes per game (to cover for Roe). And another 5-15 minutes will likely be needed in most games, depending on match-ups and foul trouble.

On Durrell Summers:

Unfortunately, after scoring 20 points in three games during that four-game stretch, Summers went into a prolonged scoring slump, scoring just 50 points in his next 11 games. He emerged to make some key contributions during the NCAA Tournament run, but never exceeded a scoring output of 13 points in a game.

Going into the 2009-10 season, here are the best/worse case scenarios for Summers:

Worst case: His junior year is like is sophomore year, with a tad more playing time: spectacular plays at times, inconsistent offensive contributions at others.

Best case: He makes a Morris Peterson-like jump from his sophomore to junior seasons. That four-game scoring explosion is evidence it could happen. He's got all the tools to be a consistent threat to score 15-20 points per game, grab key offensive rebounds, and become a shut-down defender.

On Raymar Morgan:

All in all, I think there's quite a bit for Raymar Morgan to build on going into his senior season--more than initially meets the eye in perusing the stats from his illness-marred junior season. If he can put the statistical efficiency from his sophomore season together with his improved attitude and aggressiveness from this past season, he could have a very special senior season.

Bigger picture, let's step back nine months in time. Last November, who would have though that MSU's top-billed preseason star would become such a limited factor in conference and postseason play and the team would still (1) win an outright Big Ten title and (2) advance all the way to the National Championship Game? There's the silver lining to Morgan's illness: It forced other guys (Durrell Summers and Draymond Green, in particular) to step up and make plays. Did that make MSU a better team last season? Probably. Will it make them a better team next season? Almost certainly yes.

On the 2009-10 Big Ten outlook:

. . . put all that together and you get the following three-months-out TOC Big Ten basketball power rankings:

Purdue

Michigan State

Minnesota

Michigan

Ohio State

Illinois

Northwestern

Wisconsin

Penn State

Indiana

Iowa

With two potential national title contenders and up to nine teams with NCAA Tournament hopes, the conference looks to be as strong as it's been at least since the 2004-05 season (when two Big Ten teams advanced to the Final Four) and maybe as far back as the 1999-2000 season (when the conference last sent seven teams to the Big Dance).

(Note: I'd probably knock Minnesota down two spots in the projected Big Ten standings at this point, given recent events in Minneapolis--although there's still certainly plenty there for Tubby to work with. The rest of the rankings still seem about right.)

On the schedule (this is Pete talking):

The home/away Big Ten game balance seems fair. 4 out of 6 home games to start, and 3 of the last 4 games are also at home.

As to difficulty, I wouldn't say the schedule seems front or back loaded. The degree of difficulty's pretty even throughout the season.

Undoubtedly you noticed that Michigan's the last game of the season. You also might be wondering if it falls on spring break, and the answer is yes. The Purdue game was at the same time last year, and judging by the Izzone's turnout to see the Boilermakers, I wouldn't be worried about a Wolverine invasion.

The last nine games could be shown on national TV. I don't know if that qualifies MSU as elite (if they aren't already), but it darn sure doesn't hurt.

Four weekend home games out of a possible nine is about the definition of fair. No complaints there either.

As to the nonconference, I can't recall MSU having an opponent as big as Gonzaga that close to the start of the season. Gonzaga just lost Austin Daye, Jeremy Pargo, and Josh Heytvelt though, so hopefully the Spartans can take advantage of a bulldog team who will be learning to play without three of their biggest stars. Also note the trip to The Citadel this year.

On Draymond Green:

. . . to what extent does his lack of height limit his upside as an interior presence? There were certainly times this past season when an opponent would grab a rebound over Green's head or turn and shoot over Green's outstretched arms. But those instances were relatively rare. Meanwhile, Green showed a knack for using savvy and positioning to overcome his relative lack of length and he posted very good rebounding numbers playing for the best rebounding team in the country.

Offensively, he showed no fear in going to the basket when presented with the chance. Note that his 2-point shooting percentage increased significantly as the season progressed and the opponents got tougher.

The old basketball maxim is that you can't teach height. But I don't think you can teach teach what Green has, either. I've said it before: Draymond Green is a basketball player. He makes plays.

On Delvon Roe:

If Roe is really back to 100% physically, the sky's the limit for him. The experts are already starting to pay attention: Jeff Goodman has him at #8 on his list of the top 25 players fans need to get to know, and DraftExpress.com couldn't find much to criticize (other than the free throw thing) in ranking him as the #12 NBA prospect in the Big Ten.

Roe has already demonstrated that he's a tough, smart, versatile basketball player. Put those attributes together with the physical talent that made him a five-star recruit and you're going to have a player who will eventually be a contender for the title of Best Big Man of the Tom Izzo Era.

On Tom Herzog:

You don't get voted runner-up for Mr. Basketball without having some decent basketball-playing abilities. And, while you certainly don't want to read too much into statistics from less than two hours of time on the court (mostly against opposing bench warmers), the tempo-free numbers above hint at the fact that Tom Herzog can do some things with a basketball.

On the offense:

Going forward, the hope would be that Delvon Roe and Draymond Green can maintain their rebounding prowess as their minutes go up, making up for the graduation of Goran Suton and keeping MSU's offensive rebounding percentage above 40 percent.

And there's reasons to be optimistic that the team can improve on the other three factors.

Travis Walton's departure will help with shooting percentages. (The loss of Walton on the defensive end will be a different story.)

A full season of a healthy Raymar Morgan and more playing time for Delvon Roe could boost the free throw rate number even higher.

And maybe, just maybe, the turnovers go down as the perimeter guys all pick up another year of experience.

On the defense:

What doesn't show up in the numbers is the effect that losing Walton and Suton may have on our opponents' effective field goal percentage. Walton's ability to shut down opponents' top perimeter scorers is something that won't be matched by any of our returning guards. And Suton had developed a knack for frustrating opposing post players in establishing position and getting good looks at the basket.

While the experience of our core group of perimeter players (Lucas, Allen, Summers, Morgan) should help some with cohesion in playing Izzo's man-to-man scheme with an emphasis on help defense, I'd have to put my money on a slight regression by the team on the defensive end. An offsetting increase in offensive efficiency may be needed to match last season's win-loss results.

On team depth:

After "toughness" and "rebounding," the word "depth" ranks right up there when you're playing word association with the name "Tom Izzo." The 2009-10 team should have it (note that we haven't even mentioned Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman, two players capable of being the 9th or 10th guys on a Big Ten contender). If anything, the challenge is to fit all the depth together, balancing out the relatively experienced group of perimeter players with the less experienced cadre of post guys.

While, of course, there really isn't a magic ratio that automatically leads to Big Ten titles and postseason success, I will posit that depth is a prerequisite for success for Izzo-coached teams. (Other coaches don't necessarily need it.) Based on what we know right now, that prerequisite has been met.

Man, am I prolific or what? (Ignore the fact that these posts were written over a period of approximately 200 days.) So what have I missed? What do you see as the key(s) to success this season? Which player's improvement is most integral to the team replicating the stupendous results of last season? Just how anxious are you to get this show started?

MSU Green-White Basketball Scrimmage Recap

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:00:29 -0000

Yay, basketball! A sport that doesn't make us think about sharp objects!

The lineup format for the scrimmage was first team (Green) vs. second team (White). The starting lineup for the Green team--and, therefore, the presumed opening game lineup at this point--was Lucas/Allen/Morgan/Roe/Herzog. In the second half, though, Summers took Allen's spot and Green took Roe's, indicating that Izzo is basically thinking of seven players as starter quality.

These things always end up being offensive showcases (although the defensive intensity was a notch up from the Midnight Madness scrimmage a week ago). Hence 149 points scored in a 40-minute game involving quite a few players who don't normally score much outside of layup lines. It doesn't look like MSU is going to post a full box score, which is fine since the stats won't tell us much anyway. Chris Allen (22), Kalin Lucas (19), and Isaiah Dahlman (18) were your leading scorers; more on them below.

One stat we do have that's encouraging is the 44.8% combined 3-point shooting percentage put up between the two teams. With Allen, Lucious, and Summers sucking up Travis Walton's minutes this year, the team will likely take substantially more shots from beyond the arc. Knocking down 3-point looks consistently will, therefore, be a bigger key to success this season.

Defensively, there wasn't much to write home about. At halftime, Tom Izzo took questions from the crowd. One of the questions was something like, "Who's your best defensive player right now?" To which Izzo replied, "We don't have one yet." Truth be told, I think the answer is going to be Delvon Roe. Now that he's close to 100% healthwise, he showed a knack for jumping into passing lanes and making steals. Combine that with his defensive rebounding prowess and the surprisingly good blocked-shot rate he put up last season, and he could well contend for a spot on the Big Ten All-Defensive Team.

Also of note: The team did play some 2-3 zone in the second half, so maybe Izzo is serious is about using it more this year in order to mask the inexperience among the post defenders.

Player-by-player impressions:

Kalin Lucas: As quick as ever. 3-point release looks a little more fluid.
Korie Lucious: I was surprised when he took the court to participate in the scrimmage, given that he's been cleared to practice for less than two weeks. But, after that initial surprise, I didn't think about his foot injury again, as he looked completely natural running the point for the White team. Very good news.
Chris Allen: Looked very confident shooting the ball and making moves going toward the basket. None of the hesitation that plagued him for a long stretch of last season. Can he maintain that over 30+ games?
Durrell Summers: Man, can he jump. At one point, someone threw a high pass to him in the corner of the court we were sitting adjacent to (in the lower student section). It looked like he was taking off to fly when he went up for the ball, which he retrieved.
Raymar Morgan: I'm not sure his game is really suited to these sorts of scrimmages, which is fine. Jumpshot looks improved, although still a bit line-drivish. Took and made at least one 3-pointer without hesitating.
Draymond Green: Has slimmed down even more. Took the ball to the hoop without fear, with mixed results. A couple fabulous interior no-look passes. Took a rare preseason-intrasquad-scrimmage charge. Ran the fast break after grabbing a defensive rebound several times. A commenter mentioned him as a point guard possibility if Lucious were to miss any time; I don't think that's out of the realm of possibilities. With the graduation of Goran Suton (who was at the scrimmage), Green is now officially my favorite Spartan.
Delvon Roe: See above regarding his defense. Free throw shooting was fine; no problems on those front-enders. Looks to have improved his mid-range shooting ability, as well.
Tom Herzog: Much more assertive on both ends of court, with a couple strong dunks off passes. Still a few awkward moments, though. Noticed in pregame warm-ups he's got really nice touch on his 15-foot jumpshot; soft release with nice rotation on the ball.
Derrick Nix: Even with the weight he's lost, he's still a load. "Laboring" is the word that comes to mind watching him get up and down the court. But when he gets the ball near the basket, he can't be stopped.
Garrick Sherman: Looked, dare I say it, somewhat Sutonesque. Good nose for finding the ball on the boards; knack for finding ways to score or get fouled down low. Seemed to fade a bit as the scrimmage went on, though. Also, not quite as big as I was thinking he was.
Isaiah Dahlman: Even before he scored his points, I thought his outside shot looked improved; quicker release, good rotation on the ball. Looking to take a leadership role as a senior, directing teammates throughout the game. Could he contribute a few big shots/plays in his final season as a Spartan?
Austin Thornton: Didn't have much impact on the game. Not buying the he's-a-power-forward-now idea. Best shot at regular PT is as a Tim-Bograkos-like defensive spark plug. Might be room for one of those with Walton gone.
Mike Kebler: He can dunk! In warm-ups, at least. Might be more athletic than I had realized and a real option to play a few minutes at PG in a pinch.
Jon Crandell and Anthony Ianni: Thank you for your willingness to play hard in practice, gentlemen.

Overall, the positive takeaway is that Herzog and the two freshmen showed quite a bit of poise and the ability to make varying contributions. My guess is that their respective shares of the playing time down low will fluctuate over the course of the season, depending on match-ups, as none of them look to have the complete package at this point. Herzog against teams with real low-post scoring threats. Sherman against smaller opponents. Nix in short stretches of 2-3 minutes to wear opposing big men down. None of the three when Izzo decides to unleash what will quite possibly be the fastest, most-athletic 1-through-5 lineup in the country with Green/Roe at the 4/5 spots.

Finally, a few amateur photos with super witty captions for your enjoyment:

Korie Lucious trying to bring back the Steve Urkel look.

Raymar Morgan's jumpshot: Now with bonus range!

Sherman thinking, "Let's impress those TOC guys with a stand-out Free Throw Rate today."

"It's just a scrimmage. Don't hurt anyone."

Best basketball player tattoo ever?

Remember this guy?

I'm open! And I can shoot now!

50 pounds later, still plenty of weight to throw around.

Nameless guard goes strong to the hoop.

Oops. Wrong photo album. Stay away from sharp objects.

Ummm, I think I'm going to go ahead and worry about this just a little bit, OK?

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 16:20:46 -0000

Joe Rexrode has an update on how the offseason's going for the MSU basketball team in today's LSJ. Everything is very upbeat--until you look at the sidebar.

Apparently, Korie Lucious' recovery from surgery on the foot he broke in the national championshp game is not going as well as Chris Allen's has. Additional surgery is a possibility, with the goal of getting him back on the court in October. Particularly anxiety-inducing text:

"I think he’s got the same issue that the kid from Carolina did," Izzo said, referring to Marcus Ginyard, who missed last season for the Tar Heels with a foot injury. "On 10 percent of the kids, they just don’t heal as quickly. With Korie now, the negative would be he lost the whole summer. There’s no question he will not play a day in the whole summer. And that is disappointing. "

Analysis/panic after the jump.

At minimum, this is unfortunate in terms of the missed opportunity for Lucious to further develop as an offensive playmaker. But the fact that the medical issue bears similarity to Marcus Ginyard's situation raises the specter that Lucious could miss the beginning of the basketball season. That would mean the team would basically have to play without a true back-up point guard. Kalin Lucas will no doubt play at least 30 minutes in competitve games next season and could probably play 35 minutes per game over a short stretch if needed.

But those 5-10 minutes he's not on the court could have a major impact on the team's performance. Playing without a competent back-up at point guard is different than not having, say, a center to bring off the bench, since the point guard sets the table for the entire offense.

Looking over the roster, I really only see two candidates to step into the back-up point guard role, neither of whom is an ideal fit:

Chris Allen: Allen has the athleticism to play the position. He's a good dribbler and has shown flashes of passing acumen. But he also has a history of questionable decision making on offense. And trying to learn the point guard position would distract from his main goal: Developing a more consistent perimeter shot.
Austin Thornton: Thornton is a smart, hard-working player, and--given that he doesn't have an established role in the playing rotation--he could devote himself full-time to learning the point guard position. The question is whether he has the quickness to compete against Division 1 point guards. He looked somewhat overwhelemed at times last season when he saw the court against major-conference competition.

The other potential option is walk-on Mike Kebler. It's hard to judge a guy when he's only playing in garbage time, but my sense is that his athleticism is probalby a notch down from Thornton's.

Tom Izzo has dealt with missing point guards before (Mateen Cleaves' injury in 1999, Marcus Taylor's early depature in 2002) but in both cases there was a decently-equipped player available to step up (Charlie Bell, Alan Anderson). We can only hope I'm underestimating the ability of Allen and/or Thornton to do the same--or that Korie Lucious' left foot is, in fact, good to go two months from now.