SB Nation - Goran Suton

The TDG Big Ten Basketball Preview

GopherNation — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:45:15 -0000

I have intentionally held off with a Big Ten basketball preview, waiting until we could see a few games and get a feeling for how teams are adjusting to the key gains and losses from a year ago. Gopher Nation has plenty to look forward to this season. As we all know everything is returning with some key additions added. An NCAA tournament bid and likely a win or two is expected. But what about the road before the NCAA Tournament. The long and difficult Big Ten season comes first and this team has a chance to really be a factor in the B10 title race. Let's take a brief look at each team in my expected order of finish.

1 - Purdue (NCAA) - Were it not for Purdue having injury issues a year ago they could very likely be defending a Big Ten title this year. Robbie Hummel was last year's preseason B10 POY and he should not be fully healthy to lead the rest of a very talented roster. The bulk of the talent lies in the junior class for the Boilermakers and this team is athletic and deep. Injuries and other uncontrollables aside, what may be the difference between a Big Ten title and a top 2 finish could come down to coaching. Matt Painter is an excellent coach but who knows if he'll be capable of steering his team accurately to win a Big Ten regular season title. Guys like Tom Izzo, Bo Ryan, Bruce Weber and Tubby Smith have the resume of winning multiple titles. I think after this year Matt Painter adds a Big Ten regular season title to his resume.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - E'Twaun Moore
SG - Chris Kramer
SF - Keaton Grant
PF - Robbie Hummel
C - JJ Dawson

2 - Michigan State (NCAA) - I know that Michigan State is the consensus title team and for very good reason. Tom Izzo is a great coach, his team is coming off a national runner-up season and he returns the vast majority of his roster. But my gut tells me they have a great season but one that ends the regular season looking up one spot in the B10 standings. It is really hard not to like Michigan State. They too are deep, very athletic, play great defense and as I mentioned they are very well coached. But I think the one key loss will be the loss that makes the difference. Goran Suton meant a lot to the Spartans a year ago and while this team still has very talented players like Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen and Durrell Summers (with guys like Raymar Morgan and Delvin Roe off the bench); Suton will be missed. Freshman Garrick Sherman may be very good but he's not the same thing. From year to year team's take on different personalities and even the loss of just one player can change the dynamic of a team. Michigan State will be great, they'll be extremely dangerous in the NCAA Tournament but I think they fall a game or two short of Purdue this year.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Kalin Lucas
G - Chris Allen
G - Durrel Summers
PF - Draymond Green
C - Garrick Sherman

3 - Ohio State (NCAA) - In this early season the Buckeyes have looked fairly strong. And leading their early season charge is the outstanding play of Evan Turner, who looks like the early favorite for Big Ten POY (very early, I know). Turner has notched a double-double in all four games averaging 21.7 ppg and 14.7 rpg. OSU has a lot of very nice pieces outside of Turner, which isn't surprising considering the recent string of very highly ranked recruiting classes in the Thad Matta era. OSU has some offensive weapons but they are lacking in a couple key areas. First of all they are not an overly deep team. Jon Diebler is a lights out shooter and Turner might be the best player in the conference but they can only carry them so far. Matta has been going with an eight man rotation so far this year with heavy minutes for the starting five. Secondly this team is not overly strong in the paint. Their perimeter is as good as anybody's in the conference but Kyle Madsen and Dallas Lauderdale will not strike fear into the hearts of the conference's coaches.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - William Buford
SG - Jon Diebler
SF - Evan Turner
PF - David Lighty
C - Kyle Madsen

4 - Minnesota (NCAA) - There was a time when my maroon goggles would have had me rank the Gophers one spot higher. The potential (probable?) losses of Royce White and Trevor Mbakwe greatly lessened my optimism. But then the impressive play of Rodney Williams to start the year has me thinking big things again, just not as grand as before. As we all know the Gophers are deep and defend very well. I think the improvement of the sophomores and the athleticism that Williams brings to the table makes this team dangerous. Over the course of a long season I don't think we have what it takes to finish in the top 2 but this team is good enough to beat anybody on their schedule.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Al Nolen
SG - Lawrence Westbrook
SF - Rodney Williams
PF - Damian Johnson
C - Ralph Sampson III

5 - Illinois (NCAA) - this might be the team I know the least about but I do know enough to know that this team is well balanced and has the roster make-up that is well suited for Bruce Weber. Demitri McCarney, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale are known quantities around the Big Ten. These guys averaged a combined 33 points, 14.7 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game last year. They compliment each other well and this year they add a couple dynamic freshmen to the backcourt in DJ Richardson and Brandon Paul. In the early goings these kids have 11.3 and 16.7 respectively, although they have yet to play any team of substance. Overall this will be a very good team that will only get better as the season goes along.

Likely Starting lineup
G - Brandon Paul
G - DJ Richardson
G - Demitri McCamey
PF - Mike Davis
C - Mike Tisdale

6 - Michigan (NCAA) - Manny Harris is such a great player who can win a game on his own and probably has the best pro potential in the conference. A lot of people would put the Wolverines as high as third on their prediction list based mostly on the talent of Harris and DeShawn Sims. But I'm not 100% sold on the rest of the team. John Beilein is a great coach and in year three he should really have his guys and his system working well. But once again I'm not sold on the rest of the roster and in this year's Big Ten a guy like Manny Harris will win you a few but on the nights when teams slow him down Michigan will be rather vulnerable. Decent depth, great scoring and not great interior size. A sixth place finish may seem very low but the difference between the 4th through 7th place teams could really only be a couple games.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Darius Morris
G - Manny Harris
G - Laval Lucas-Perry
F - Zack Novak
F - DeShawn Sims

7 - Wisconsin (NCAA) - Rule #1 in Big Ten basketball, never underestimate Bo Ryan and the Badgers. This isn't a great Badger team but there is some talent here with Trevon Hughes, Jason Bohannon and even Jon Leuer is having a pretty good season thus far. It may be easy for Gopher fans to overlook Wisconsin since we did sweep them last year (that was fun to write), but this team is capable of not only beating the Gophers but finishing at least a few spots higher than this. Maybe this is wishful thinking or maybe I'm not sold that the talent is there, not even for Bo Ryan.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Trevon Hughes
SG - Jason Bohannon
SF - Tim Jarmusz
PF - Jon Leuer
C - Keaton Nankivil

8 - Penn State (NIT) - The Talor Battle show will be a lot of fun to watch in Happy Valley. Penn State is perfectly demonstrates why I wanted to wait a couple weeks before I started my B10 preview. I once would have put PSU a spot or two higher, but after losses to UNC-Wilmington, Tulane and a 2-pnt win over Davidson (Steph Curry is no longer there folks) I am thinking that 7th might be too high. This team will go as far as Taylor Battle will lead them but the development of freshman Tim Frazier at PG and how well their interior rebounds is what could be the difference between another NIT run and the NCAA Tournament. Their Big Dance resume is already in bad shape, they'll will have to finish a lot higher in the conference standings to avoid the NIT again.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Tim Frazier
SG - Talor Battle
SF - David Jackson
PF - Jeff Brooks
C - Andrew Jones

9 - Indiana (NIT) - Great recruiting class and I am a huge Tom Crean fan, but this year will be tough for a young Hoosier squad to make much noise in the Big Ten. The conference is the deepest and most talented that it has been in a very long time. Other years a hot, young team like Indiana could make a run into the top 5, but not this year. This will be the sheik team next year and this year you'll likely seen them stun a few top 4 teams along the way. But learning to play at the Big Ten level is not an easy adjustment no matter how talented you are. I wouldn't be completely shocked to see them finish higher, but not likely this year.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Verdell Jones III
G - Jeremiah Rivers
G - Maurice Creek
PF - Tom Pritchard
C - Christian Watford

10 - Northwestern - This may have been the year for the Wildcats to make the tournament, but the loss of Kevin Coble effectively ended that dream. This is a surprisingly talented NU roster and with the way they defend and execute their precision offense they should never be taken lightly. But with Coble out for the season they'll rely on Michael Thompson and John Shurna. There are a couple intriguing freshmen to go along with Thompson and Shurna

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Michael Thompson
SG - Jeremy Nash
SF - Drew Crawford
PF - John Shurna
C - Luka Mirkovic

11 - Iowa - The outlook for the Hawkeye season is so bleak that they cannot help but surpass expectations this year. Scoring has been the problem this year for Iowa. There will be games when they are hot from behind the arc and maybe they'll get a few conference wins. But for the most part you can expect a lot of losses for Iowa (that too was fun to type).

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Cully Payne
SG - Anthony Tucker
SF - Matt Gatens
PF - Jarryd Cole
C - Brennan Cougill

I know that people hate preseason polls and predictions but at the conference level this is a lot of fun. Everyone has much hope and optimism for the season, except Iowa fans. There are eight teams capable of making a run to the NCAA Tournament (although Penn State is already on life support). The Big Ten should be a blast to watch this year.

Since I'm taking a wild stab at the standings here is my best guess at some post season individual awards.

All Big Ten First Team

PG - Kalin Lucas
SG - Manny Harris
SF - Evan Turner
PF - Robbie Hummel
F - DeShawn Sims

All Big Ten Second Team

G - Taylor Battle
G - Demetri McCamey
F - Jon Diebler
F - Damian johnson
C - JJ Dawson

Big Ten All Freshman Team

G - Brandon Paul - Ill
G - D.J. Richardson - Ill
F - Rodney Williams - Minn
F - Christian Watford - Ind
F - Garrick Sherman - MSU

Basketball Q&A with Blogging the Bracket.

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:01:35 -0000

The star studded week of basketball enthusiasm continues as we direct questions to Chris from Blogging the Bracket, SB Nation's resident bracketologist and basketball guru. Lets see what he says about the great grindy Big Ten.

HTTO: The Illini surprised alot of people by finishing second in the Big Ten and returning to the NCAA tournament. This year the team loses two starting guards in Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham, but gain several highly regarded freshmen, overall do you see the Illini taking a step forward or backward this year?

I think the Illini will take a bit of a step back without Frazier and Meacham, but they'll still be a contender for an NCAA bid, and maybe in the conference. Demetri McCarney is a good point guard, and if he's as motivated as the offseason chatter says he is, Illinois will have the right guy running the offense. Alex Legion HAS to be better than he was in his first year in Champaign. If Mike Tisdale can be more aggressive down low, the Big Ten better watch out. He already shoots well enough from the field and the foul line to be a force, but he's got to get himself more opportunities to up his scoring average of 10 per game. Mike Davis was only two rebounds short of averaging a double-double last season, so he's likely to have a huge year inside as well. If Bruce Weber can get good numbers out of Dominique Keller, you may see fewer three-guard sets this season.

The freshman class is a talented, local group. Weber has been criticized for not getting the big time local talent, and he did a nice job of quieting those critics with this class. D.J. Richardson's experience at Findlay Prep means he should adjust to the college game quickly. His defensive skills will help fill the void left by Frazier's graduation. Brandon Paul will be a versatile scorer, which the Illini needs. Joseph Bertrand should learn a lot from McCarney over the next two years and give Bruce Weber some good minutes at the point. Tyler Griffey, much like Keller, gives the Illini an inside option beyond Tisdale and Davis if he can show some consistency, especially on the rebounding front.

HTTO: The Big Ten has the makings of a very competitive season, with the talent gap seemingly the slimmest it has ever been. Is it still MSU's conference to lose, or will one of the many challengers take the title from them?

I really think the Spartans are going to miss Goran Suton in the middle and Travis Walton's defense, and that really gives Purdue, Ohio State, or if things break right, Michigan and Minnesota, the chance to steal the league crown from them. If the freshmen mature quickly, the Illini could even surprise and contend.

HTTO: Along those same lines, this looks like it could be a banner year for the Big Ten, with MSU going to the NCAA finals and Penn State winning the NIT and nearly all of the top talent from last year's teams returning do you see the conference flexing its muscle come tournament time? How many teams do you expect to come from the Big Ten in the NCAA tourney, and how do you rank it along with the other conferences this year.

The Big Ten is going to have a great chance to build on the strong showing it had in last year's postseason, especially with the Big East probably being a bit down and the Pac-10 likely being way down. Obviously, I think MSU and Purdue will get high seeds.

For the rest of the league, it's crucial that they make a real statement during the non-conference season. Otherwise, it could be a repeat of last season, where everyone outside of MSU, Purdue, and Illinois really beat the tar out of each other in the league and didn't have the wins outside of the conference to boost themselves out of the middle of the bracket.

From a bid perspective, I think the Spartans, Boilermakers, Buckeyes, Wolverines, Gophers, and Illini are a safe group of six. Beyond that, I feel the only two teams who don't have much hope this season are Indiana and Iowa. While Wisconsin may be down, I'm never going to discount a Bo Ryan-coached team. Northwestern has a real shot at getting their first-ever bid, but they cannot do their usual thing where they lose a headscratcher or two at the end of the year. Penn State will have some real momentum from their NIT triumph and they have a shot to get some decent wins at the Charleston Classic, but it may not be enough with how good the rest of the league will be.

HTTO: Illinois, the state that is, along with Indiana and Ohio routinely manufacture a lot of top tier basketball talent, but are also some of the most often "raided" states by other schools. Do you believe that the reputation of the Big Ten as a low scoring tough defense conference has hurt it in terms of recruiting? The up and down score happy ACC has enjoyed a more positive national reputation (and the benefit of the ACC/Big Ten challenge dominance.) In short what do you believe is the national perception of the conference, and how does it, in your opinion affect recruiting and performance?

Speaking as an SEC grad who grew up watching the Big East, I admit that I make plenty of jokes throughout the season about many Big Ten matchups setting basketball back to Naismith's time. But really, if you look at non-conference and postseason performance, the criticism is pretty unfounded. I mean, eight Big Ten teams have made the Final Four in this decade, albeit with only one winning (MSU in 2000). From a recruiting perspective, it's harder to say. I honestly don't spend a ton of time on recruiting over at my site because a lot of it is a crapshoot. And the Big Ten experience is a great example of this. Sure, Big Ten schools may sign as many McDonald's All-Americans as their counterparts in the other major conferences, but they do land a lot of talented players who believe in teamwork and are coachable. When you combine those two characteristics with the coaching talent in the conference, you're going to end up with teams that feature a lot of "diamonds in the rough" who go on to shock the experts

MSU's defensive tendencies during the Tom Izzo era

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 02:31:12 -0000

A couple weeks ago, I promised you some long-term analysis of MSU's defensive tempo-free numbers. (I'm sure you've been jumping out of bed every morning and running to the computer to see if this post has been published yet.) As it turns out, there's a good reason I haven't yet spent the time to microanalyze the season-to-season stats on the defensive end of the floor: They're not that interesting.

To start with, there's the statistical problem noted by the Wonk so many years ago (What, it was only 4 years ago? Really?):

Applying numbers to basketball aids and abets this widespread DAD--and I'm certainly not immune. Look at this blog: I post individual stats for every player in the Big Ten in four different offensive categories. But what about D? While we can record how many blocks and steals an individual records, individual defensive excellence largely eludes our efforts to make sense of it through numbers. The box score doesn't really do justice to defense--you have to see it.

To compound matters, the two individual defense stats that are available measure things that Tom Izzo has never emphasized:

Since the 1996-97 season, MSU has ranked in the top 100 nationally in steal percentage just once (1998-99). In 9 of the 13 season, MSU ranked below #150 nationally.
Over the same period, MSU has ranked in the top 50 nationally in block percentage just once (2006-07, when Drew Naymick played stater-level minutes and Idong Ibok got 10 minutes/game). In 8 of the 13 seasons, MSU ranked below #150

Perhaps the team-level defensive stats have been more analysis-friendly. Graphical display of defensive four-factor numbers after the jump:

No dice. Other than free throw rate (which always tends to be the least consistent of the four factors from game to game or season to season), there's surprisingly little volatility in those lines:

Effective field goal percentage is below 47.5% in all years outside the 3-year period of 2004-2006 (when MSU had a fairly thin/inexperienced group of interior players).
Opponents' defensive rebound percentage is never higher than 32% and more often than not below 30%.
Opponents' turnover percentage is higher than 22.5% in only one year (the steal-heavy 1998-99 season).

Generally speaking, my analysis of the defensive tendencies of last year's team holds true through the Izzo era:

By placing in emphasis on preventing dribble penetration by hedging off shooters, the team forced a lot of perimeter shots from its opponents (the primary benefit of a zone defense).

But the fact the team was fundamentally playing man-to-man defense, particularly on the interior, meant the team didn’t sacrifice anything in terms of defensive rebounding (generally the main weakness of a zone defense).
. . .

Playing physical man-to-man defense resulted in a relatively higher number of fouls that created additional free throw opportunities for our opponents. At the same time, the fact that our perimeter defenders were more focused on preventing penetration than with disrupting our opponents’ offensive rhythm meant we didn’t create a lot of turnovers.

Expressed more succinctly, Tom Izzo wants his players to stay in front of the ball, force a tough perimeter look, grab the rebound, and head to the other end of the court. While short-term circumstances may result in some tweaks to that approach (e.g., playing a zone because of depth issues or foul trouble), there's been little deviation from the basic defensive game plan from season to season.

Looking ahead to to this season, the graduations of Travis Walton and Goran Suton (who, by the way, appears to be making a good impression with his new head coach) weight somewhat more heavily on the defensive end of the court than on the offensive end. Here are the individual defensive stats for last season (including defensive rebounding percentage as a defensive stat), with departing players bolded:

	Min%	DReb%	Blk%	Stl%
Lucas	79.8	5.2	0.6	1.9
Walton	69.4	6.7	0.1	3.2
Suton	56.3	23.9	2.2	2.6
Summers	53.4	11.2	1.9	1.8
Morgan	51.8	17.9	1.0	1.7
Allen	47.6	9.2	0.0	1.1
Roe	44.9	20.4	5.0	1.4
Green	27.8	23.0	2.5	3.0
Gray	23.8	22.3	3.9	0.7
Lucious	22.6	9.5	0.7	1.7
Ibok	10.9	11.3	5.0	0.0

Bullet point observations:

As on the offensive end, the hope is that Delvon Roe and Draymond Green can maintain their lofty rebounding percentages even as the number of minutes they play per game increases, helping to offset the loss of Suton's preeminent work on the boards. A full season of a healthy Raymar Morgan should help here, too. The ability of Nix/Sherman/Herzog to clean the glass defensively is a question mark. MSU's improvement on defense last year was driven almost entirely by its stellar work on the defensive glass; continuing to limit opponents to one shot per offensive possession will be key again this season.
With more minutes played and two healthy knees, Roe's apparent proficiency at blocking shots could become more of a factor--although the fact he was generally guarding the opposition's weaker post player last year may have helped boost his block percentage.
Walton and Suton ranked first and third on the team in steal percentage, so we shouldn't expect an increase in defensive turnover percentage this season. The good news? Draymond Green ranked second.

What doesn't show up in the numbers is the effect that losing Walton and Suton may have on our opponents' effective field goal percentage. Walton's ability to shut down opponents' top perimeter scorers is something that won't be matched by any of our returning guards. And Suton had developed a knack for frustrating opposing post players in establishing position and getting good looks at the basket.

While the experience of our core group of perimeter players (Lucas, Allen, Summers, Morgan) should help some with cohesion in playing Izzo's man-to-man scheme with an emphasis on help defense, I'd have to put my money on a slight regression by the team on the defensive end. An offsetting increase in offensive efficiency may be needed to match last season's win-loss results.

Finally, my intention had been to do a "putting it all together" post that looked at MSU's offensive and defensive efficiency in relations to each other over the last 13 years. But the Big Ten Geeks beat me to the punch today, producing this graph:

Regarding last year's team, they note the following:

Those wide splits around the 2000 timeframe indicate just how dominant the Flintstones teams were. And the 04-05 showing - where the offense jumped while the defense tighted up - shows another healthy split. But last year's team had roughly the same gap as the previous two incarnations. And yet, the Spartans ran the table in the Big Ten, taking the conference title by an impressive four games. Sure, it was an odd season, but we could also say it was Izzo's finest coaching job. He got everything he could out of that team. And as much as we love efficiency numbers, we don't lose sight of the fact that scoreboards are what matter the most. And Izzo's scoreboard still says that every 4-year player he's ever coached has been to a Final Four.

You can't beat that last sentence. So I'll leave it at that.

Checking in with The Only Colors- Michigan St. preview

everydayezag — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 04:47:57 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

In order to learn even more about Michigan St., we checked in with The Only Colors to get their take on the matchup between the Zags and Spartans

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One of the great aspects of being associated with the SBNation network is the tremendous amount of quality blogs that we have the opportunity to use as resources. As part of our season preview segment, we are trying to check in and get opinions from the blogs affiliated with some of the top schools on the Gonzaga schedule. As part of the Michigan St. preview that went up last week, we decided to check in with The Only Colors to get their take on what this game will mean to Michigan St., and just how highly they think of the team Tom Izzo has. We would like to thank The Only Colors for taking the time to answer our questions, and we look forward to checking back in with them as November gets closer.

Slipper Stll Fits: With the surprising run to the Championship game last season, and a majority of the key contributors returning, this team clearly has high expectations heading into the season. Do you think that the deep tournament run has created unfair expectations for this group, or is this team a national championship contender?

The Only Colors: Last season went as well as anyone could have dreamed going into it: An outright Big Ten championship to end a seven-year conference title drought and an NCAA Tournament run all the way to the national championship game in our own back yard. So I think expectations have to be scaled back at least a bit.

I guess you have to say they're national championship contenders, given that they bring as much back as anyone this side of Kansas. But I'm going to reserve judgment until we see how the team fits together on the court. Good Tom Izzo-coached teams are built on depth and experience, and Travis Walton (defense) and Goran Suton (rebounding) were the kind of guys that make a Tom Izzo team go. Replacing them will be a challenge. I'm taking a cautious approach even within the Big Ten, where I expect the competition will be even tougher this season.

Slipper Still Fits: In Kalin Lucas, Michigan St. has one of the elite point guards in the country. What makes Lucas so dangerous, and where do you think he needs to improve to take his game to the next level?

The Only Colors: Lucas has a rare blend of speed and strength. He can beat you on the fast break, and he can pull up in the lane, take a hit, and convert the big basket. The two areas Lucas can improve in are (1) distributing the ball to other scorers more consistently and (2) becoming more of a factor defensively (something that will be required with Walton's graduation).

Slipper Still Fits: While Lucas is regarded as one of the premier players in the country, Delvon Roe and his health is a very important factor to the success of the team. What have the reports been for Roe, and has he made the jump that many think he is capable of to an elite player?

The Only Colors: Roe's knees are reportedly back to 100% and there's every reason to think he'll be a major force this season. Last year, he was able to focus primarily on rebounding and defense. But he showed flashes of scoring ability, particularly in getting to the free throw line with frequency. With the basketball intelligence he showed as a freshman, I think he could end up being right there in the discussion for the greatest big man of the Tom Izzo era when his career at MSU finishes up.

Slipper Still Fits: As he typically does, Tom Izzo brought in another tough and talented recruiting class. Of the newcomers, which should we expect to see playing time early in the season? Will any of the newcomers be key contributors to the rotation?

The Only Colors: The two incoming freshman are both big men: 6'10", 235-pound Garrick Sherman and 6'9", 275-pound Derrick Nix. Both come in as solid, but not elite, high school prospects. At least one of the two of them will need to step in and play 10-15 minutes behind Roe and Draymond Green. Another guy who's not technically a newcomer, but is a bit of an unknown, is redshirt junior Tom Herzog. Herzog is a 7-footer who's had a hard time putting on weight. We're hoping he becomes a useful contributor this season, though.

Slipper Still Fits: What perception does Gonzaga with Michigan St. fans? Obviously, the game from the Maui Invitational was a classic, but how is the Gonzaga program viewed?

The Only Colors: To me, Gonzaga is one of the great success stories of contemporary college sports. A team with decidedly mid-major resources that has managed to become a household name among even casual college basketball fans (evidence: my mom know who they are). There aren't that many teams Tom Izzo can schedule for a game at the Breslin Center during the nonconference season that will get the Spartan fan base buzzing. Gonzaga is one of them.

Goran Suton is a Jazz . . . or something like that

KJ@theonlycolors — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 13:10:11 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

8 months ago: Michigan State's Goran Suton (14) shots against Louisville's Preston Knowles in the first half of the NCAA Midwest Regional men's college basketball tournament final game Sunday, March 29, 2009, in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

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Goran Suton was selected by the Utah Jazz in the second round of last night's NBA Draft with the 50th pick overall. The Jazz brass seem a little more excited about Suton than NBA executives usually are about second round picks:

"I just think this second round will go down as having produced guys that play in the league more so than in the 10 years I've been around here," [Jazz GM] O'Connor said.

O'Connor believes one thing Suton has going for him is that he played for a hard-nosed coach, Tom Izzo, at Michigan State. That should, the GM said, help the 23-year-old "take to (Jazz) coaching pretty well."

"I think," O'Connor said, "he's going to turn his head and hear a different voice and hear the same things come out."

The article quotes Suton as being firmly committed to making the Jazz this year, rather than going to play in the NBA, and reports that the Jazz drafted to European big men last year in the second round, both of whom went back to play in Europe and will do the same this year.

Looking at the current Utah roster, there's some pretty good depth up front, with Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur, Andrei Kirilenko, Paul Millsap, Matt Harpring, and (former Buckeye) Kosta Koufos. So, in terms of the numbers, Suton will need to show Jazz something in order to secure a roster spot. (Boozer, Okur, and Milsap are all potential free agents, though, so the equation could change a bit.)

Suton would seem to have everything a team could want in a back-up big man: great rebounding skills, good positional defense, solid outside shooting ability, decent ball-handling skills, and a few low-post moves. His lack of athleticism or imposing size will him from becoming a star in the NBA, but there's no reason he can't have a long, productive career as a pro.

Congratulations to Goran Suton. He's come a long way from being a mistake-prone redshirt freshman. He's helped lead a team to the NCAA Championship Game and appears to have put himself in pretty good position to earn an NBA paycheck this fall.

Mavs Trade Down to 24: Links and Thoughts

Wes Cox — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 02:53:14 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

Jeff Teague, future Mav?

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Take that San Antonio. We'll see your Richard Jefferson and raise you two second round picks.

In case you missed it, the deal is now official.

The Portland Trail Blazers dipped into their collection of picks in the NBA draft, acquiring No. 22 from the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday in exchange for No. 24 and two second-rounders.

Dallas now has the 56th pick in this years draft, giving them one pick in the second round as opposed to none. They also receive the lower of Chicago's or Portland's second rounders next year.

Donnie Nelson and Mark Cuban have both said the reason they made the trade is because they feel the player(s) they like will still be there at 24. And from that stand point, I'm 100% on board with this deal. Dallas is better off with these two second rounders than they were without them. And even though the chance either amounts to anything is slim, at least there's a chance. My only question is did they really have to get these two picks back in return?

The Trailblazers are loaded full of second round picks and it was a given they would trade some. They had the 33rd, 38th, 55th, and 56th pick in this years draft in addition to their two second rounders next year. The Mavs managed to get their lowest picks in '09 and '10. Does Portland say no if Dallas asks for the 55th and the higher of next years two picks? I can't imagine Dallas didn't ask, so I guess we know the answer. I suppose the low cost for moving up two spots in the first round only illustrates the perceived parity in this years draft.

"It's just two spots, and we're still going to get the guy we like," Mavericks president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson said. "The depth of the second tier in this year's draft has given us the opportunity to trade down, pick up two second-round picks and not lose ground in terms of talent."

"After 10 to 12, it's such an eye-of-the-beholder deal," team president Donnie Nelson said recently. "There are going to be guys that someone likes at 25 and someone else likes him at 13."

There is a lot of speculation that Portland traded up to grab Israeli SF Omri Casspi, who is someone I don't think the Mavs would have had a lot of interest in. If that's the case, and Dallas knows it, then they are essentially only moving down one spot.

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The Lakers are planning to get rid of their first round pick, 29th overall.

General manager Mitch Kupchak said Wednesday that there was a "better than even likelihood" the team would get rid of its first-round pick.

The Lakers are hopeful they will re-sign Trevor Ariza, Shannon Brown and Lamar Odom, all of whom become unrestricted free agents on July 1. If so, that would bring the roster to the league-minimum 13 players, making it unlikely the team would add another player.

I'll take that to mean the pick is for sale.

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John Hollinger has updated his mock draft and now has Dallas getting Jeff Teague at 24 with Eric Maynor still on the board as well.

This would be a pretty big slide for Teague, who thought his floor was No. 19. Actually, he could go as high as No. 10, so his range is pretty wide. Dallas would be doing backflips to get him here, and, as it happens, he's got some Devin Harris in his game.

At 56, which is total guesswork, he has Dallas taking Bosnian center Goran Suton who played four years at Michigan State. He's 6'10", unatheltic, prefers jump shots to posting up, and will already be 24 at the start of next season. Pass!

Tuesday Links: Bring-on-the-Crusaders-and-Rockets Edition

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 21:07:30 -0000

BIG TEN OFFSEASON RUNDOWN • College Hoop Blog: Good 'N Plenty - FOX Sports Blogs
MSU's pod for the Legends Classic will include Valparaiso and Toledo.
11 NBA teams evaluate Goran Suton before the draft | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press
Gut feeling: There's better than a 50% shot Suton gets drafted.
A look at Bo Ryan's U.S. Team - Bucky's 5th Quarter
Thanks goodness he only gets to keep these guys for a month.
Future Spartans Nate Klatt and Denicos Allen lead Ohio to victory in annual all-star game - Michigan State Spartans Sports - MLive.com
"Klatt was the best offensive lineman on the field, and what appears to be a recruiting lapse in judgment on behalf of Ohio State who didn't offer Klatt, has turned into green-and-white gold for MSU."
The Other Side of Spartan Sports: 10,000 to 1 Odds
In the immortal words of Lloyd Christmas: So you're telling me there's a chance!

Links of the Goran Suton pre-draft news variety*

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 22:56:49 -0000

Michigan State's Goran Suton a potential NBA draft selection | Detroit Free Press
Projects as a second-rounder (but who doesn't?); Izzo says he had a good workout for either Houston or San Antonio.
Kevin McHale’s status with Timberwolves uncertain - BostonHerald.com
Also working out for Minnesota.
Tickets On Sale For Friday's MSU Coaches On The Road Tour Stop - MSU OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
Anyone gone/going to one of these?
Spartan coaches targeting New Jersey hard | Detroit Free Press
Raiding Rutgers' back yard.
FRUSTRATION FOR MSU PERSONNEL?
Politics driving decisions at Big Ten meetings? I am shocked!
MSU coach Mark Dantonio replaces Mason as chair of kids' telethon | Detroit Free Press
Win-win for kids and for MSU athletics community relations (I don't remember JLS doing this sort of thing).
Phil Steele: Offensive Line Experience Chart
MSU #91 out of 120 D1 teams. Not a good indicator if you buy this theory. (HT: Rittenberg)

*50 bonus points to anyone who can think up a clever name for these news round-up posts ala "Nitt Picks."

Friday Charting Fun

KJ@theonlycolors — Fri, 29 May 2009 20:57:49 -0000

One of the last things we talked about over at the old site was just how good MSU's rebounding was this past season. In thinking this through some more, the numbers are even more remarkable when you consider that two of MSU's starting frontcourt players both missed substantial amounts playing time due to injury/illness.

Here, courtesy of the new Statplot site, is a graphical illustration of just how good the team's rebounding was once Goran Suton returned from the knee injury that forced him to miss six nonconference games:

It wasn't until that final stretch of four top-ten opponents that MSU had a fair fight on the boards. Up until that point, no conference or postseason opponent had outrebounded us (on a tempo-free basis).

In this context, the performance by the Wolverines looks downright heroic. They were the only regular season conference opponent to come within 10 percentage points of MSU in the rebounding department.

Reviewing the Michigan State-Texas Series

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 26 May 2009 21:10:46 -0000

Piggy-backing on LVS's fanshot from last week, the date for next season's MSU-Texas game in Austin has been set for Tuesday, December 22. The game will be the sixth meeting between the two teams since 1999, with a seventh meeting slated for the 2010-11 season in East Lansing.

The games between the Spartans and Longhorns have generally been pretty exciting contests. Here are brief capsules on each of the six games. (Note that the two teams had never met prior to the 1999 game).

November 27, 1999 (Puerto Rico)
Texas 81-MSU 74
All five Longhorn starters hit double digits, with Chris Mihm leading the way with 19 points. Andre Hutson led MSU with 17 points and 7 rebounds. Filling in at point guard for an injured Mateen Cleaves, Charlie Bell failed to record an assist. MSU blew a 7-point halftime lead en route to their first of seven losses in a season that would ultimately lead to a national championship.

March 30, 2003 (San Antonio)
Texas 85-MSU 76
The #1 seeded Longhorns prevailed over the #7 seeded Spartans in the final of the NCAA Tournament's South regional. Travis Ford led Texas with 19 points and 10 assists. Paul Davis (15 points) and Erazem Lorbek (14 points) led MSU in scoring. This game remains the only blemish on Tom Izzo's 5-1 record in regional championship games.

November 16, 2006 (New York)
MSU 63-Texas 61
A.J. Abrams and some freshman named Kevin Durant both hit the 20-point mark for Texas, but the rest of the Longhorns combined for just 18 points. MSU's own freshman star, Raymar Morgan, led the team in scoring with 18, but it was junior Drew Neitzel who sliced through the defense and laid the ball in to win the game in the final seconds.

December 22, 2007 (Auburn Hills)
MSU 78-Texas 72
Kalin Lucas's coming out party: 18 points, 6 assists. A.J. Abrams scored 24 points on a late 3-point shooting flurry and D.J. Augustin had 22, but MSU's balanced, up-tempo attack built a second-half double-digit lead that Texas couldn't overcome.

December 20, 2008 (Houston)
MSU 67-Texas 63
Goran Suton led MSU in scoring with 18 points, but Durrell Summers was the hero, hitting a 3-pointer off a Raymar Morgan pass to put MSU up by 2 with 19 seconds left. On the other end of the court, Travis Walton held A.J. Abrams to just 8 points on 3-10 FG shooting.

I was curious as to where Texas ranks in terms of how many times MSU has played different nonconference opponents under Tom Izzo. It turns out they're tied for fourth behind Oakland, North Carolina, and Kentucky:

Opponent	G	W	L
Oakland	8	8	0
North Carolina	8	2	6
Kentucky	6	4	2
IPFW	5	5	0
Texas	5	3	2
Duke	5	1	4
Cleveland State	4	4	0
East Tennessee State	4	4	0
UNC Ashville	4	4	0
Wisconsin-Green Bay	4	4	0
Florida	4	3	1
Illinois-Chicago	4	3	1
Kansas	4	3	1
Arizona	4	2	2
Oklahoma	4	2	2
Oklahoma State	4	2	2
Temple	4	2	2
Detroit	4	1	3
Syracuse	4	1	3
Bradley	3	3	0
South Florida	3	3	0
Central Michigan	3	2	1
Connecticut	3	2	1
Gonzaga	3	2	1
Louisville	3	2	1
Wright State	3	2	1
Fresno State	3	1	2
Maryland	3	1	2
UCLA	3	1	2

The remarkable thing about this list is that Izzo has now played at least three games against every team in the top ten of Mike Miller's list of the greatest college basketball programs of all time. (The NCAA Tournament games against Louisville and UConn made that happen.) That's as good a testament as any to the attitude and success Tom Izzo has brought to the Michigan State basketball program over the last 14 years: scheduling as many top-notch nonconference oponents as anyone in the country and regularly making deep runs into the NCAA Tournament.

The fact that Texas is booked for two more years will help continue that track record of playing elite opponents outside conference play. Given that we don't have an ongoing nonconference series against a major conference team (ala Indiana-Kentucky or Michigan-Duke), it'd be great to see the series extended even further.