SB Nation - Durrell Summers

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:07:36 -0000

Why is it the most wonderful time of the year?

Well, among other reasons, because individual tempo-free numbers are up at KenPom!

It's obviously still very early--with just 400 minutes of basketball under the belts of the 2009-10 Spartan basketball team (and only 120 of those against BCS-conference-level competition)--so the numbers are still what economists would call "advance." But, hey, they're new numbers. So we must analyze them.

Player bullets after the jump (explanation of individual tempo-free numbers is here):

Kalin Lucas' shooting numbers are looking pretty spiffy: .557/.429/.756. Having more offensive options on the floor this season may be helping boost his 2-point shooting percentage, as he doesn't have to try to manufacture shots late in the shot clock as often as he did last season. His assist rate is down a bit (even more so compared to where it was during nonconference play last season), a function of playing at the 2-guard spot alongside Lucious more often.
Draymond Green ranks in the top 500 nationally in 7 different tempo-free categories. But we've already waxed poetic on his efficiency.
Durrell Summers is the only player among the top 7 Spartans (by minutes played) with an offensive rating below 114. His stands at just 95.9. His 2-point (.492) and free throw (.840) percentages are pretty solid, though. Three-point shooting (.240), offensive rebounding (4.9), and turnovers (23.3) are the areas that need to improve.
Raymar Morgan's numbers are pretty good considering the injury issues early on: offensive rating of 114.8, contributing on the boards (10.4/16.6), steal rate at 2.8. It's all about finding some level of consistency: 4 games with 16+ points, 3 with 4 points or fewer.
Derrick Nix is sporting a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 20.0 and a nice block rate of 6.0 in his limited minutes. I don't think I need to mention what his statistical weakness is, do I?
Chris Allen is a "role player"? His Shot% is down from 28.4 last season to 22.0 this season. The upside is he's shooting a very efficient .647 from 2-point range and an acceptable .364 from beyond the arc. The downside is he's completely disappeared against good compeititon: total of 14 points vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC.
Delvon Roe's got some nice numbers for a guy who went scoreless in his first two (concussion-affected) games: top 150 in both offensive/defensive rebounding percentage, as well as block percentage, and a .604 two-point shooting percentage.
Korie Lucious is doing exactly what he needs to do from a statistical standpoint: distributing the ball with frequency (assist rate of 32.1) and keeping the turnovers down (TO% of 17.8, way down from last year's 32.0).
Austin Thornton is turning the ball over (26.2) and fouling too much (10.0 fouls created per 40 minutes) when he gets on the floor.
Garrick Sherman's numbers are decent (2pt% of .542, OffReb% of 13.9), especially considering a fairly high percentage of his minutes have come at the starts of games.
Isaiah Dahlman is leading the team in offensive rating at 135.8 (hitting 3 of 6 three-point attempts). But he still doesn't find a way to get involved in the offense with regularity when he's on the floor: usage rate of 11.8.

We'll leave off there and take a look at some of the team-level numbers later this week. It's never good to open all your present at once, right?

Oh, What a (Horrific) Night: North Carolina 89, Michigan State 82

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 05:38:36 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

If he was the question, we had no answer.

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On a night when it appears the bottom may have fallen out of the MSU football team, I guess a single-digit loss on the home floor of the most dominant college basketball program in the country isn't quite so worthy of teeth gnashing.

But it was still mighty painful.

North Carolina almost literally couldn't miss in the first half, building a 50-34 lead on 64.3% two-point shooting and 60.0% three-point shooting. MSU scrapped in the second half, getting the lead down to as low as 6 in the final 2 minutes. But the basketball gods seemed predisposed against us, as break after break went the other way. (Example: Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan running into each other on a back court steal opportunity that would have resulted in the lead being cut to 4.)

Given how well the Tarheels played on offense--not just taking full advantage of their height inside (36 points for Ed Davis and Deon Thompson on 22 FGA) but hitting from the perimeter, as well (18 points for Larry Drew II on 7 FGA)--you could argue that MSU shouldn't hang its head over this one. They did manage to score 82 points in a 78-possession game.

But what disappointed me--and the reason I don't think this loss can be easily swept away--is the lack of composure shown by the Spartan players at key moments. With the amount of experience MSU has among its perimeter players, they needed to do a better job of knowing when to push things and when to step back and let the game settle down. Kalin Lucas made more out-of-control plays than he has since he was a freshman, taking ill-advised off-balance shots (6-17 from the field) and narrowly avoiding turnovers after dribbling into crowds in the lane. I credit Raymar Morgan for his aggressiveness on offense (18 points on 10 FGA) but he also made some very poor decisions along the way (5 turnovers). And the 2-20 three-point shooting line the team posted was a sign, to me, of a lack of confidence.

MSU was the veteran team in this game, but (until the final couple minutes) they could never take the role of aggressor away from the less-experienced Tar Heels.

Bullets (unofficial box score is here):

18-54 FG shooting from the four MSU guards. So much for the best back court in the country.
Draymond Green is the one constant on this team: 13 points on 8 FGA, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, zero turnovers. He did end up fouling out against the taller UNC post players, but his position defense was quite good for most of the game.
Had to be tough for Delvon Roe to foul out against the guys he declined to be the teammates of. 10 rebounds and 5 steals for Roe, though. A couple pretty explosive moves to the basket, too.
Credit to Durrell Summers for bouncing back from a horrible start to end up with 16 points on 17 FGA. Only Spartan to hit a 3-pointer tonight. (Lucious hit a couple very long 2-pointers early on.)
Chris Allen, on the other hand, never recovered from his early 3-point misses. Complete non-/negative factor late in the game. Allen is now a combined 6-21 from the field in the 3 games against quality opposition. Very worrisome.
5 assists to zero turnovers for Korie Lucious, but 0-5 three-point shooting was a killer.
Didn't we used to have, like, a bunch of set plays? Way too much one-on-one play tonight. The failure to get a shot off after the timeout with 13 seconds left on the shot clock (and the lead at 8, I think) was particularly grating. Have to pin a little of that on Tom Izzo (although I'll go easier on him than I did in the Florida game recap).
Not sure what to say about the defense. Hopefully, we don't face many more teams this season that can take advantage of our lack of height like UNC did tonight. Seems like a limiting factor once we get to NCAA Tournament time, though--unless Green and Roe can get really, really good at position defense or Garrick Sherman and Derrick Nix make some really big strides over the next three months.
If I'd have told you before the the game the team would post a TO% of 14.1%, would you have said we'd win? Yeah, you would have.

NCAA Basketball Stats

At this point, I think expectations have to be reset. This is not a top-5 team right now--and it's not going to be at any time in the immediate future. They've got four games to get things together before the final shot at a quality nonconference win away from home (vs. Texas on the 22nd).

As I mentioned in the links section of the game thread, I'm starting to tire of the constant discussion of whether MSU basketball is "elite." Time to step back, build a cohesive team, and maybe be in a position to start to compete for a Big Ten title a month from now.

Next up: The Wofford Terriers visit the Breslin Center. Friday at 7:00. Big Ten Network.

MSU 106, UMass 68: Afterglow Thread

LVS — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 02:12:51 -0000

More photos » by Tim Larsen - AP

Would have been more useful last night, but hey, c'est la vie.

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Your Spartans truly took out their frustrations against UMass tonight, winning in convincing fashion to take third place in the Legends Classic. State literally ran away from UMass in the first half, displaying a frequently-dominant transition offense punctuated by a 30-3 run. Perhaps most encouraging is that the three players who struggled the most yesterday -- Chris Allen, Raymar Morgan, and Korie Lucious -- rebounded with strong performances tonight, scoring 18, 17, and 13 points, respectively. State hit 14 of 22 from behind the arc, led by four each from Allen and Kalin Lucas; undoubtedly, the eFG will be quite gaudy for the second night in a row. Only surrendering 11 turnovers in a game which surely had a ton of possessions is another big improvement from the Florida game.

NCAA Basketball Stats

You know it's a one-sided game when the lead is 90% safe with 14 minutes to go . . .

Of course, tonight also marks the ascension of Tom Izzo to the top of MSU's coaching list: his 341st win vaults him over Jud Heathcote. It's a bit of an anticlimax, as the accomplishment would be much sweeter without the bitter taste of last night's game. But, it's nonetheless still a great accomplishment, and congratulations to Mr. Izzo; here's to many, many more.

State wins. Up next: North Carolina.

Can't Handle the Pressure: Florida 77, Michigan State 74

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 05:19:01 -0000

More photos » by Mel Evans - AP

Some personal space, please!

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In two years of blogging about this basketball team, I'm pretty sure I've never said anything like this:

This loss is on Tom Izzo.

When an unranked opponent shoots 5-24 from 3-point range, you simply have to find a way to win. And it's not like we didn't know Billy Donovan was going to throw the 2-2-1 press and the 2-3 zone out against us. Yet you could count on one hand the number of times it looked like the MSU players had a specific game plan for how to beat those schemes for easy baskets--despite a full four days of preparation time. The easy baskets that were created seemed more like a function of individual playmaking (e.g., Lucious passes on the drive in the first half) than by any cohesive plan of attack.

Having Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan at less than 100% certainly didn't help, but there are still four starter-quality players on this team that should be able to make plays handling the ball against pressure: Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, and Draymond Green. Instead, the game plan to beat the press ended up being "Give Kalin Lucas the ball and let him beat the press with the dribble." And that didn't work so well when Florida was able to deny Lucas the ball on the in-bounds pass. So you end up with Durrell Summers trying to back his man down the court and barely getting bailed out by a timeout call.

It doesn't happen often, but Tom Izzo got outcoached tonight. The result was a turnover percentage of 32.4% and a much-deserved loss.

Man, I really don't want to spend another season pondering why the team turns the ball over with such regularity.

From a statistical standpoint, perhaps I'm being too harsh about the lack of a well-executive offensive game plan. After all, MSU did manage to score over a point per possession (71-possession game). That was a function of efficient two-point shooting (61.7%) when they did manage to beat the Florida defensive pressure and stellar offensive rebounding (60.0% OffReb% [!]). Just imagine if we'd turn the ball over on, say, just 25% of our possessions.

Defensively, the Gators got to 77 points despite barely shooting over 20% on two dozen attempts from beyond the arc. They turned the ball over on only 15.5% of their possessions, scored proficiently in the paint (54.1% 2pt%), and got to the free throw line frequently, knocking down 22 of 25 shots from the line. The MSU defenders were much to quick to reach for the ball on drives by Florida players, picking up a series of bad fouls late in the game.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Bullets (official box score is here):

Despite having to leave the game early due to the problem with his foot, Kalin Lucas put up 20 points on 11 FG attempts. He was at his best scoring the ball tonight. Only 1 assist vs. 3 turnovers, though.
Draymond Green and Delvon Roe combined for 28 points on 13-17 FG attempts. They were the finishers on the plays when MSU was successful in beating the defensive pressures. Plus they worked hard on the boards--Green, in particular (11 rebounds, 5 on the offensive end). Unfortunately, they were also the culprits on some of the bad defensive fouls.
And Green/Roe weren't terribly unsuccessful in defending the Florida interior scorers. Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin, and Chandler Parsons were the most efficient scorers for the Gators, scoring 35 points on 22 FG attempts. I'm very concerned with how we guard the North Carolina big men on Tuesday.
Durrell Summers was pretty good tonight: 13 points on 10 FG attempts and 6 rebounds. Unfortunately, he couldn't get one of those final two 3-point attempts to drop to send the game to OT.
Beyond the four guys, I've mentioned, the rest of the team scored just 14 points tonight. That's a disturbing lack of balance.
Raymar Morgan could not get anything going against the size of the Florida front line. And his jumper wasn't dropping. Zero points on 7 FG attempts and 4 personal fouls. Another thing to worry about for the UNC game. On a positive note, he did post 5 assists tonight and played hard on both ends despite the lack of scoring performance.
I thought Izzo was a little harsh in his halftime comments about Korie Lucious, calling his play "atrocious." He had a couple bad turnovers in the first half against the press, but he was also making aggressive plays to beat the Gator zone with the pass.
Bright spot: Austin Thornton. 4 points on 2 made jumpers, an assist, and two fouls drawn on box outs. He and Garrick Sherman were the only MSU players to appear in this game and not turn the ball over.
Speaking of which: Five MSU players turned the ball over 3 or more times. Ugh.

Next up: The University of Massachusetts (which lost to Rutgers 83-75 on the other side of the bracket) in the 3rd-place/consolation/losers-bracket game. 5:30 tomorrow night. HDNet again. I'll try to get what will likely be a very brief game preview up tomorrow morning/afternoon.

P.S. Michigan State has not won a nonconference tournament away from home since 1998. And they haven't won the Big Ten Tournament since 2000. Why do we play so poorly in tournaments contained within a single week? We seem to do OK in the one that lasts more than one week.

P.P.S. 1-5 for the Big Ten today. Not good.

The TDG Big Ten Basketball Preview

GopherNation — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:45:15 -0000

I have intentionally held off with a Big Ten basketball preview, waiting until we could see a few games and get a feeling for how teams are adjusting to the key gains and losses from a year ago. Gopher Nation has plenty to look forward to this season. As we all know everything is returning with some key additions added. An NCAA tournament bid and likely a win or two is expected. But what about the road before the NCAA Tournament. The long and difficult Big Ten season comes first and this team has a chance to really be a factor in the B10 title race. Let's take a brief look at each team in my expected order of finish.

1 - Purdue (NCAA) - Were it not for Purdue having injury issues a year ago they could very likely be defending a Big Ten title this year. Robbie Hummel was last year's preseason B10 POY and he should not be fully healthy to lead the rest of a very talented roster. The bulk of the talent lies in the junior class for the Boilermakers and this team is athletic and deep. Injuries and other uncontrollables aside, what may be the difference between a Big Ten title and a top 2 finish could come down to coaching. Matt Painter is an excellent coach but who knows if he'll be capable of steering his team accurately to win a Big Ten regular season title. Guys like Tom Izzo, Bo Ryan, Bruce Weber and Tubby Smith have the resume of winning multiple titles. I think after this year Matt Painter adds a Big Ten regular season title to his resume.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - E'Twaun Moore
SG - Chris Kramer
SF - Keaton Grant
PF - Robbie Hummel
C - JJ Dawson

2 - Michigan State (NCAA) - I know that Michigan State is the consensus title team and for very good reason. Tom Izzo is a great coach, his team is coming off a national runner-up season and he returns the vast majority of his roster. But my gut tells me they have a great season but one that ends the regular season looking up one spot in the B10 standings. It is really hard not to like Michigan State. They too are deep, very athletic, play great defense and as I mentioned they are very well coached. But I think the one key loss will be the loss that makes the difference. Goran Suton meant a lot to the Spartans a year ago and while this team still has very talented players like Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen and Durrell Summers (with guys like Raymar Morgan and Delvin Roe off the bench); Suton will be missed. Freshman Garrick Sherman may be very good but he's not the same thing. From year to year team's take on different personalities and even the loss of just one player can change the dynamic of a team. Michigan State will be great, they'll be extremely dangerous in the NCAA Tournament but I think they fall a game or two short of Purdue this year.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Kalin Lucas
G - Chris Allen
G - Durrel Summers
PF - Draymond Green
C - Garrick Sherman

3 - Ohio State (NCAA) - In this early season the Buckeyes have looked fairly strong. And leading their early season charge is the outstanding play of Evan Turner, who looks like the early favorite for Big Ten POY (very early, I know). Turner has notched a double-double in all four games averaging 21.7 ppg and 14.7 rpg. OSU has a lot of very nice pieces outside of Turner, which isn't surprising considering the recent string of very highly ranked recruiting classes in the Thad Matta era. OSU has some offensive weapons but they are lacking in a couple key areas. First of all they are not an overly deep team. Jon Diebler is a lights out shooter and Turner might be the best player in the conference but they can only carry them so far. Matta has been going with an eight man rotation so far this year with heavy minutes for the starting five. Secondly this team is not overly strong in the paint. Their perimeter is as good as anybody's in the conference but Kyle Madsen and Dallas Lauderdale will not strike fear into the hearts of the conference's coaches.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - William Buford
SG - Jon Diebler
SF - Evan Turner
PF - David Lighty
C - Kyle Madsen

4 - Minnesota (NCAA) - There was a time when my maroon goggles would have had me rank the Gophers one spot higher. The potential (probable?) losses of Royce White and Trevor Mbakwe greatly lessened my optimism. But then the impressive play of Rodney Williams to start the year has me thinking big things again, just not as grand as before. As we all know the Gophers are deep and defend very well. I think the improvement of the sophomores and the athleticism that Williams brings to the table makes this team dangerous. Over the course of a long season I don't think we have what it takes to finish in the top 2 but this team is good enough to beat anybody on their schedule.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Al Nolen
SG - Lawrence Westbrook
SF - Rodney Williams
PF - Damian Johnson
C - Ralph Sampson III

5 - Illinois (NCAA) - this might be the team I know the least about but I do know enough to know that this team is well balanced and has the roster make-up that is well suited for Bruce Weber. Demitri McCarney, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale are known quantities around the Big Ten. These guys averaged a combined 33 points, 14.7 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game last year. They compliment each other well and this year they add a couple dynamic freshmen to the backcourt in DJ Richardson and Brandon Paul. In the early goings these kids have 11.3 and 16.7 respectively, although they have yet to play any team of substance. Overall this will be a very good team that will only get better as the season goes along.

Likely Starting lineup
G - Brandon Paul
G - DJ Richardson
G - Demitri McCamey
PF - Mike Davis
C - Mike Tisdale

6 - Michigan (NCAA) - Manny Harris is such a great player who can win a game on his own and probably has the best pro potential in the conference. A lot of people would put the Wolverines as high as third on their prediction list based mostly on the talent of Harris and DeShawn Sims. But I'm not 100% sold on the rest of the team. John Beilein is a great coach and in year three he should really have his guys and his system working well. But once again I'm not sold on the rest of the roster and in this year's Big Ten a guy like Manny Harris will win you a few but on the nights when teams slow him down Michigan will be rather vulnerable. Decent depth, great scoring and not great interior size. A sixth place finish may seem very low but the difference between the 4th through 7th place teams could really only be a couple games.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Darius Morris
G - Manny Harris
G - Laval Lucas-Perry
F - Zack Novak
F - DeShawn Sims

7 - Wisconsin (NCAA) - Rule #1 in Big Ten basketball, never underestimate Bo Ryan and the Badgers. This isn't a great Badger team but there is some talent here with Trevon Hughes, Jason Bohannon and even Jon Leuer is having a pretty good season thus far. It may be easy for Gopher fans to overlook Wisconsin since we did sweep them last year (that was fun to write), but this team is capable of not only beating the Gophers but finishing at least a few spots higher than this. Maybe this is wishful thinking or maybe I'm not sold that the talent is there, not even for Bo Ryan.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Trevon Hughes
SG - Jason Bohannon
SF - Tim Jarmusz
PF - Jon Leuer
C - Keaton Nankivil

8 - Penn State (NIT) - The Talor Battle show will be a lot of fun to watch in Happy Valley. Penn State is perfectly demonstrates why I wanted to wait a couple weeks before I started my B10 preview. I once would have put PSU a spot or two higher, but after losses to UNC-Wilmington, Tulane and a 2-pnt win over Davidson (Steph Curry is no longer there folks) I am thinking that 7th might be too high. This team will go as far as Taylor Battle will lead them but the development of freshman Tim Frazier at PG and how well their interior rebounds is what could be the difference between another NIT run and the NCAA Tournament. Their Big Dance resume is already in bad shape, they'll will have to finish a lot higher in the conference standings to avoid the NIT again.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Tim Frazier
SG - Talor Battle
SF - David Jackson
PF - Jeff Brooks
C - Andrew Jones

9 - Indiana (NIT) - Great recruiting class and I am a huge Tom Crean fan, but this year will be tough for a young Hoosier squad to make much noise in the Big Ten. The conference is the deepest and most talented that it has been in a very long time. Other years a hot, young team like Indiana could make a run into the top 5, but not this year. This will be the sheik team next year and this year you'll likely seen them stun a few top 4 teams along the way. But learning to play at the Big Ten level is not an easy adjustment no matter how talented you are. I wouldn't be completely shocked to see them finish higher, but not likely this year.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Verdell Jones III
G - Jeremiah Rivers
G - Maurice Creek
PF - Tom Pritchard
C - Christian Watford

10 - Northwestern - This may have been the year for the Wildcats to make the tournament, but the loss of Kevin Coble effectively ended that dream. This is a surprisingly talented NU roster and with the way they defend and execute their precision offense they should never be taken lightly. But with Coble out for the season they'll rely on Michael Thompson and John Shurna. There are a couple intriguing freshmen to go along with Thompson and Shurna

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Michael Thompson
SG - Jeremy Nash
SF - Drew Crawford
PF - John Shurna
C - Luka Mirkovic

11 - Iowa - The outlook for the Hawkeye season is so bleak that they cannot help but surpass expectations this year. Scoring has been the problem this year for Iowa. There will be games when they are hot from behind the arc and maybe they'll get a few conference wins. But for the most part you can expect a lot of losses for Iowa (that too was fun to type).

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Cully Payne
SG - Anthony Tucker
SF - Matt Gatens
PF - Jarryd Cole
C - Brennan Cougill

I know that people hate preseason polls and predictions but at the conference level this is a lot of fun. Everyone has much hope and optimism for the season, except Iowa fans. There are eight teams capable of making a run to the NCAA Tournament (although Penn State is already on life support). The Big Ten should be a blast to watch this year.

Since I'm taking a wild stab at the standings here is my best guess at some post season individual awards.

All Big Ten First Team

PG - Kalin Lucas
SG - Manny Harris
SF - Evan Turner
PF - Robbie Hummel
F - DeShawn Sims

All Big Ten Second Team

G - Taylor Battle
G - Demetri McCamey
F - Jon Diebler
F - Damian johnson
C - JJ Dawson

Big Ten All Freshman Team

G - Brandon Paul - Ill
G - D.J. Richardson - Ill
F - Rodney Williams - Minn
F - Christian Watford - Ind
F - Garrick Sherman - MSU

Houdini Act: Michigan State 75 Gonzaga 71

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 05:07:22 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

We'll take it.

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First off, that's an excellent Gonzaga team--a team that's only going to get better as the season goes on. I was skeptical that their new starters up front could be major offensive threats. I was wrong. Robert Sacre and Elias Harris combined for 34 points on 28 FG attempts. I had hoped the MSU big men could play the Gonzaga big guys even, but it wasn't even close. Green/Roe/Nix/Sherman combined for just 14 points.

And Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray are playmakers. As fantastic as the plays Durrell Summers made on offense late in this game were, the defense he and Allen played on Bouldin and Gray throughout the game may have actually been the key factor in escaping with the win. Bouldin/Gray combined to shoot just 8 of 29 from the floor. If one or both of those guys is allowed to get hot, MSU probably has no chance to come back and win this game.

As it was, it took every ounce of moxie the Spartans had to come back from the early hole they dug for themselves. The hope had been that a young Gonzaga team would come out and be overwhelmed by the Bresin Center atmosphere. But quite the opposite scenario played out in the early minutes. MSU turned the ball over 10 times in the first 11 minutes of the game en route to falling behind by double digits.

They scrapped their way back to within 5 points at the half, struggled to get over the hump in the second half as the Bulldogs seemingly had an answer for everything the Spartans threw at them, and finally landed the big punch in the final four minutes, closing the game on a 10-4 run.

Three players accounted for 56 of MSU's 75 points (official box score is here):

I expected almost nothing from Raymar Morgan tonight, after how poorly he played in the opener. Thankfully, my expectations were way off. He showed up big tonight, playing with an aggressiveness and composure the rest of the team was sorely lacking early in the game. He finished with 16 points on 10-11 FT shooting and 5 rebounds in 22 minutes, shaking off a pretty significant-looking sprain to his right (previously healthy) ankle late in the second half. Also: He got absolutely hosed on that 5th foul--and the 4th one was pretty questionable, too.
Kalin Lucas didn't have his A game tonight--a lot of floaters in the lane that didn't have much chance to go in. Yet he still posted a decently-efficient offensive line: 19 points (on 16 FG attempts), 5 assists, 3 turnovers. And this was nice:
```
GOOD! LAYUP by Lucas, Kalin [PNT]               00:39  73-70  H 3
```

Durrell Summers. The human highlight reel: Multiple twisting mid-range makes, stupendous-vertical-leap blocked shot, huge 3-pointer to take the lead with 3 minutes to go, two absolutely pure free throws to seal the deal. 21 points on 8-9 (!) FG shooting, 11 rebounds. Player. Of the game.

The contributions were much less consistent among the other seven Spartans who saw the floor. Positive spin: Imagine how good we'll be if we can get 5-6 guys to contribute offensively.

Chris Allen: Limited offensive contributions (5 points on 7 FG attempts; 2 three-point attempts blocked). Stayed on the floor for 30 minutes, though, because his defense was so solid.
Korie Lucious: Didn't score; missed all 3 shots he took from beyond the arc. Didn't make any mistakes with the ball, though: 2 assists, zero turnovers. Only played 16 minutes--I think because Izzo didn't want both him and Lucas on the floor defensively due to the Bouldin/Gray big guard combo.
Draymond Green: 6 points, 10 rebounds. Played big down the stretch defensively in the hyper-small Lucas/Allen/Summers/Morgan/Green lineup. But needs to let things come to him offensively. Forced some bad passes: 1 assist vs. 4 turnovers.
Derrick Nix: Played better defensively than offensively. Three blocked shots; impressed with how well he moves his feet away from the basket. Grabbed 4 offensive rebounds, but couldn't turn them into points (0-4 from the FT line).
Garrick Sherman: Did I miss an injury here? Scored 4 points early on, 2 on a very nifty post move. Did not play after the 18-minute mark of the second half.
Delvon Roe: Another horrific performance. Fouled out and turned the ball over 4 times in 12 minutes. He's too talented/smart not to pull it together at some point. Hopefully, this is just the after effects of the concussion. Looked lost on defense when he was on the floor, which is out of character.
Isaiah Dahlman: Only played 1 minute, but it was an important one--the last one. Apparently, Tom Izzo wanted to stay small after Morgan fouled out. I don't think he touched ball, which is probably a good thing given that he was coming in cold.

This was a very up-tempo game: 77 possessions. (Tonight: MSU defense > MSU offense.) So MSU's 20 turnovers weren't quite as bad as you might think. But they were still pretty bad: TO% of 26.0%. Given that Gonzaga only turned it over 11 times and almost rebounded MSU to a draw (OffReb% of 32.6% vs. MSU's 36.1%), MSU had a lot of ground to make up in the shooting categories. Luckily, Gonzaga made only 4 of 18 three-point attempts, contributing to their poor eFG% of 38.6%. And MSU managed to get to the line 31 times (FT rate=54.4%)--led by Morgan--making 22 of those attempts.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Even with the early injury issues, it would have been pretty disappointing to drop this game at home. The Bulldogs did everything in their power to make that happen, and the inability of the MSU players--the guards, in particular--to keep things under control early on is perplexing. But ultimately, three guys who need to make plays for this team to be successful made a series of enormous plays. All things considered, you have to chalk this game up as a positive early-season experience.

(Note that I managed to get all the way through this recap without using that TV-announcer-friendly word that rhymes with "sad versity.")

Next Up: A hopefully-much-less-blood-pressure-raising match-up against the Toledo Rockets in the first round (but not the first round in the sense that losing means you don't advance to the second round or even means you don't get to play Florida in the third round) of the Legends Classic. 6:30, Friday night. The Breslin Center. Big Ten Network.

P.S. We're not alone in the "Expected National Championship Contenders Who Struggled to Beat an Unranked-but-Tradtionally-Nationally-Elite, Non-BCS-Conference Team" club.

Postgame Reaction: Gonzaga falls to Michigan State; Leaves huge impression on nation

Zach B — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 03:58:40 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Elias Harris meet the nation; nation, this is Elias Harris. Get to know him quite well. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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I struggled to write a headline for this post because I feel like, although it was a loss, there is so much to be proud of if you are a Gonzaga fan. While I don't believe in emotional wins, Gonzaga provided a look into the future tonight against Michigan State that has to make every Bulldog fan ecstatic about this team's prospects.

The Zags fell tonight 75-71 against the second-ranked Spartans of Michigan State in East Lansing after establishing themselves early on in the first half. In fact, Gonzaga jumped out to a double digit lead at multiple points in the first half and carried a lead all the way until the three-minute mark of the second half. The outstanding veteran play of Michigan State's dynamic trio of Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Raymar Morgan proved to be too much for the young Gonzaga team. Durrell Summers gave the Spartans the lead 68-67 and the Spartans proceeded to go on a mini run which did Gonzaga in. Raymar Morgan and Kalin Lucas added buckets to make it a five point margin and by that time, the Breslin Center was rocking. Gonzaga gave a great effort in the closing minutes as Steven Gray had two looks at a three-pointer with 25 seconds left but missed both. The man who gave the Spartans the lead, Durrell Summers, iced it by hitting two free throws in the closing seconds to give Michigan State the slim four point win.

As I said in the intro, this post is a bit hard to write. Am I disappointed? Absolutely. I think Gonzaga was the better team tonight. They looked worlds better than the #2 team in the nation for a good balance of the night but just didn't have enough veteran brass at the end to drive the final nail in the coffin. I'm not at all upset with this team. The young guys were absolutely sensational. Elias Harris will be a freshman All-American, G.J. Vilarino has garnered Mark Few's trust early on, and Kelly Olynyk might be the hardest worker on the floor. The veterans were in and out all game. Robert Sacre turned in the most outstanding performance of the returners with 17 points on 7-12 shooting. Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray were...okay. Like we said at the outset of the game, they had to play their best for Gonzaga to win and Michigan State's vets outplayed Gonzaga's.

If I was to look at these stats and not see a score, I would have told you Gonzaga would have gotten smoked. Check these out:

--- Gonzaga shot 35% from the floor, MSU shot 44%
--- Matt Bouldin and Steven Gray were 8-29 from the floor.
--- Frontcourt starters outscored the backcourt starters 34-28.

Yeah these stats are not what we thought coming into the game but damn...Gonzaga can play with the best in the nation and not play their best game. That is very, very good news for such a young team.

I must also give special recognition to some of the bench guys tonight. Will Foster played enormous off the bench. In 12 minutes, Will came into the game and not only was serviceable but looked like he belonged. He made some good rebounds, came up with some big tipped shots and was generally in the right place at the right time. I have confidence in him now that he can be a valuable big on this team. Speaking of valuable contributor, Kelly Olynyk played 19 minutes tonight, the most of any bench player and was very good. You are always going to get Kelly's best effort and he is a very heady player. He played the passing lanes very well, made some big rebounds, and shot 2-4 from the floor. His hustle leads to some fouls which was obvious tonight as he fouled out but he really gutted it out tonight. Lastly, G.J. Vilarino. Talk about looking like a vet. G.J. played 13 minutes all in key moments and ran the offense well. He hit one shot from the floor and had a nice steal. What won't show up is that he played great defense as he spelled Meech. No doubt he is a big time player!

I realize I jumped around quite a bit but I'm just extremely excited about the future of this team. The next game is against IPFW and I expect them to be very confident heading into that game. There may be a slight emotional letdown but I expect the Gonzaga community to really rally these kids as they were the better team for 37 minutes of the game.

Off and Running: Michigan State 97 Florida Gulf Coast 58

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 04:47:28 -0000

39-point wins do not satisfy this man.

Near Calamity: So I had the good fortune of sitting in the second row behind the scorer's table for the season opener. For a moment, though, my proximity to the court enhanced the panic that raced through my heart when Draymond Green went down with a leg injury of some sort after lunging at Reed Baker in the waning moments of the game. Green was looking right toward my section in the split second after the injury occurred. I could read his lips: "Oh, S---." And his body language was the language of a man who thinks his basketball season might be over. He was helped off the court and into the locker room with staffers supporting him on both sides.

Thankfully, he emerged from the locker room a few minutes later, strolling by my seat with no limp whatsoever on his way back to the bench. It must have been a cramp that felt like something of a more structurally-damaging nature (Rexrode confirms).

So, like, WHEW.

Elsewhere: A 39-point win is, of course, exactly what you want in a college basketball season opener. But I do have some concerns. Let's start with those. Big picture, the question marks about our interior play cropped up some in the first half. The Eagles made 9 of 15 two-point FG attempts (60.0%) before the break, and MSU only pulled down 5 offensive rebounds in the first 20 minutes. Those trends reversed themselves in the second half, as FGCU shot just 36.4% from inside the arc after the break and MSU posted a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 47.8% (on 22 offensive rebounds) for the full game, but the lack of an experienced interior player taller than 6'8" could be an issue at times this season.

One of the reasons it may have been more of an issue tonight was that Delvon Roe looked decidely less than his normal self. He was clearly still rusty as a result of the concussion he suffered in the first exhibition game, shooting 0-2 from the floor and fouling out in just 13 minutes of play.

Raymar Morgan, meanwhile, made an unexpected appearance in this game, playing 9 minutes in the first half. Unfortunately, those minutes may have set him back in the confidence department. He missed all 4 shots he took from the field, as well as all 4 shots he took from the free throw line, and turned the ball over on a travelling call in transition. He sat out the second half with a bag of ice wrapped around his ankle (some combination of precauation and a tweak to the ankle, according to Rexrode). I don't think we can expect a significant contribution from him next Tuesday.

OK, on to the good stuff (Official box score is here.):

The junior guards were on their games: 21 points for Kalin Lucas on 9-11 FT shooting, 17 points for Durrell Summers on 12 FG attempts (one more Rexrode note: ankle tweak, boo), and 10 points for Chris Allen on 8 FG attempts. Allen only shot 1-6 from behind the arc, but he showed very good judgment in terms of shooting the ball vs. pump faking and going toward the hoop.
Despite the fact that Lucas almost always ran the point when both he and Korie Lucious were in the game, Lucious posted 8 assists vs. just 1 for Lucas. 11 points on 3-7 three-point shooting for Lucious, to boot, and his defense was outstanding, stealing the ball twice, blocking a shot, and forcing a 5-second call. As he continues to work back toward 100%, Lucious is going to be a superb spark plug off the bench on both ends of the court.
Draymond Green stuffed the stat sheet: 11 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 block, 1 steal. I predict he leads the Big Ten in good passes that don't show up as assists because the recipient of the pass gets fouled under the basket. (This prediction has the advantage of being unverifiable.)
If ever the term "space eater" applied to a basketball player, it applies to Derrick Nix. 11 points and 14 rebounds in 15 minutes of play. The FGCU players couldn't do anything to get him out of the lane once he got position, and he ate them up in the second half. Has a nice knack for protecting the ball away from the basket with his body and then banking it in off the glass. Most rebounds ever by a Spartan in his freshman debut.
Garrick Sherman was unspectacular but solid: 4 points and 5 rebounds in 14 minutes.
Tom Herzog only played 7 minutes; he seems to have already fallen well below the two freshmen on the big man depth chart.
7 points in 9 minutes for Isaiah Dahlman, which is a major departure from his career points-scored-to-minutes-played ratio. Took his first 3-point shot with confidence when he entered the game in the first half; air-balled a shot from the corner in the second half, though.
Apparently the Austin-Thornton-as-a-power-forward thing is at least a little bit real, as he played a few minutes at the 4 spot in the final 10 minutes of the game. Picked up two quick fouls on attempted rebounds (one on each end), though.

As expected, this was an up-tempo game: 78 possessions. So giving up 58 points was a pretty solid defensive effort from a points-per-possession perspective. Some of that was a function of the Eagles just flat shooting the ball poorly, though. They made only 4 of 20 three-point attempts and just 12 of 25 free throw attempts. Giving up 25 shots from the free throw line to the Eagles (FT rate= 43.9%) is a little concerning, again highlighting the potential interior defense issues. Reed Baker was stymied for most of the night, scoring only 9 points on 2-10 shooting from the field.

After a fairly slow start (FGCU led after 10 minutes), MSU eventually overwhelmed the smaller Eagles, as evidenced by the 37 shots Spartans took from the free throw line. FGCU threw some zone looks at MSU to try to compensate for their lack of size, but the MSU players were pretty efficient in taking the zone apart, moving the ball around the perimeter to get good 3-point looks. There were a couple bad turnovers early, but MSU's turnover percentage for the game (16.9%) was quite acceptable.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Next up: The level of resistance increases substantially. The Gonzaga Bulldogs. Next Tuesday night at 8:00. In the friendly confines of the Breslin Center. ESPN.

P.S. As we hoped, two banners for the pre-Izzo Final Four appearances have been added to the collection of five Izzo-era banners that were unveiled at Midnight Madness.

P.P.S. The backs of our jerseys are psychedelic, man.

Preseason Musings: Expectations

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:16:38 -0000

More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

Tough to top this.

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Five Final Fours in eleven years.

It's a fabulous factoid, one that rolls off the tongue (or computer keyboard) of any and every Michigan State basketball fan with glee. It clearly establishes us as one of the elite teams of the last decade and a legitimate contender for the title of the top college basketball program over the last 10-12 years (not to mention one of the most stable programs in the country over that time).

MSU's lofty #2 national ranking going into the 2009-10 season reflects the program's status in the eyes of national observers. Regardless of how much basketball ability is housed on a team's roster, you don't get ranked that high in a preseason poll without a well-established reputation for success. Witness the other 5 teams among the consensus top 6 in the two preseason polls: Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Villanova. Those are some college basketball aristocrats.

Is the ranking justified? On paper, yes. A team that was among the top 8 regular season performers and advanced all the way to the national title game last season returns 7 of its top 9 contributors from the NCAA Tournament run. No team in the country (even Kansas, which is ranked #1 based largely on the return of two consensus All-Americans) can make a comparable statement.

But they don't play the games on paper. The question that looms over the heads of Spartan basketball fans going into Friday's regular season opener is: Can this team really be as good as we/they/everyone thinks they should be?

In spite of the 5-Final-Fours-in-11-years factoid, the program's track record in meeting high preseason expectations hasn't been all that good in recent years. The table below shows, for each of the 12 consecutive years Tom Izzo has guided the team to the NCAA Tournament, MSU's (1) preseason ranking in the AP poll, (2) ranking in the AP final poll (which occurs between the end of the regular season and the start of the NCAA Tournament), (3) seed in the NCAA Tournament, and (4) final tournament outcome.

Season	Preseason AP Rank	Pre-NCAA AP Rank	NCAA Seed	NCAA Result
1997-98	--	16	4	Sweet 16
1998-99	5	2	1	Final 4
1999-2000	3	2	1	Nat Champ
2000-01	3	3	1	Final 4
2001-02	15	--	10	1st Rd Loss
2002-03	9	--	7	Elite 8
2003-04	3	--	7	1st Rd Loss
2004-05	13	15	5	Final 4
2005-06	4	--	6	1st Rd Loss
2006-07	--	--	9	2nd Rd Loss
2007-08	8	18	5	Sweet 16
2008-09	6	8	2	Nat Runner Up

Negative spin:

MSU has not met/exceeded its preseason ranking in the final AP poll since 2001.
Between 2002 and 2008, MSU was ranked in the top 10 four times, but failed to finish higher than #18 in any of those four years.
The team went through a six-year stretch in which it was not ranked in the top 25 in the final AP poll in all but one season.
2009 was the first season in which the team earned an NCAA seed higher than #5 since 2001.

The NCAA Tournament results have continued to be as good as just about anyone's, but the post-2001 results have all come somewhat unexpectedly on the heels of relatively disappointing regular season results: making the Elite 8 as a #7 seed in 2003, reaching the Final Four as #5 seed in 2005, getting to a Sweet Sixteen by pulling off the (marginal) 5-over-4 upset in 2008, advancing all the way to the title game despite not being a #1 seed in 2009.

Contrast those events with the remarkable consistency of the Golden Era of 1999-2001: top-5 rankings in both the preseason and final AP polls, #1 seeds in the tournament, and Final Four appearances in all three seasons.

Now, to be fair, last season doesn't really belong in the negatively-spun post-2001 story I've told. The team dropped just 2 spots from its preseason ranking to its final regular season ranking, despite dealing with two pretty serious health situations along the way. The 2009 team was the first MSU squad to finish in the final AP top 10 in 8 years. All things considered, the team met expectations in the regular season--and more than exceeded them in the NCAA Tournament. The tournament run was straight out of a storybook (except for the part about the evil Tarheel attackers overrunning our defenses in the final game).

This year, the expectations are even higher. To be honest, I don't have much of an intuitive feel for whether the team will meet them. This time a year ago, in a post with a title similar to this post's, I foresaw good things: a 15-3 conference record and a potential Final Four run in the tournament. But that team just felt more like a classic Tom Izzo team: a balanced roster of 10+ players with varying skills, strengths, and levels of experience. If everyone played the role they seemed suited for (Lucas as offensive leader, Walton as defensive stopper, Suton as versatile big man, etc.), good things were almost bound to happen.

This year, the numerical depth still seems to be there, but it's not quite the same kind of depth. The departures of Travis Walton and Goran Suton mean the team's returning talent skews more toward offense than toward defense. And the additional losses of Marquise Gray and Idong Ibok mean Tom Izzo will be relying entirely on underclassmen (and an inexperienced junior in Tom Herzog) on the front line. It's less clear which roles everyone slides into this year.

Big picture, the burden is on the more experienced core of perimeter players--Kalin Lucas, Raymar Morgan, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, and Korie Lucious--to carry the team. If that happens, it will probably be more by scoring points efficiently than by preventing opponents from doing the same. While MSU has, as often as not, been better on offense than on defense in recent years, it still just doesn't feel right for a Tom Izzo-coached team to be pointing to its scoring ability as its major strength going into a season.

And, despite the relative experience of the five perimeter players, most of them are still somewhat unknown quantities. Lucas is the exception, of course. He's the returning Big Ten Player of the Year. Even if he doesn't repeat that honor, he's going to be all-conference performer and a contender to be an All-American. Raymar Morgan, on the other hand, has a much wider range of potential performance: he could plausibly be an All-American, and he could end up merely a solid second- or third-team all-conference pick.

Allen and Summers have both shown flashes of offensive-star ability in their first two seasons, but it remains to be seen whether they can become consistent starter-level contributors on a national contender. Finally, Lucious could form a lethally-quick and efficient backcourt combo with Lucas, but (particularly in light of missing an offseason's worth of development due to injury) that may have to wait a year.

The collective outlook for this team is perhaps analogous to the individual outlook for Raymar Morgan: The team could, indeed, be a top-5 caliber squad that contends for a national title 5 months from now. Or it could turn out to be a talented, but flawed, team that drops 7-8 games in the regular season and only advances to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Time will tell. For now, I say we embrace the high expectations. The defensive move as a fan would be to say that last season was (almost) as good as it gets; let's not expect the same sort of success in consecutive seasons. But, if this program is truly on the path to long-term eliteness, annually-lofty expectations come with the territory.

So with high expectations fully embraced, I foresee the following:

A 12-1 nonnconference record. That means beating two good, but clearly less talented, teams (Gonzaga/Florida) in home/neutral settings and then knocking off one of two equally-talented teams (North Carolina/Texas) in more hostile settings. I'll say we beat a very young UNC team on their home court but lose to Texas in Austin.
A 14-4 conference record. We drop, at most, one game at the Breslin Center; beat Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana on the road; and pull off road wins in 2-3 games against the 6 potential NCAA Tournament teams we play on the road (no Ohio State).
That'd be good for a 26-5 record and, hopefully, at least a share of the Big Ten title going into postseason play. The Big Ten Tournament is always a crapshoot; if we're setting expectations high, though, a match-up with Purdue in the final (to perhaps break a regular season tie) would be lovely.
Nothing's guaranteed in the NCAA Tournament, which is what makes it such a fabulous sporting event, but if everything plays out to form in the regular season, nothing short of another trip to Indianapolis (hopefully as a #1 seed) would be satisfactory.

Beyond the roster-gelling issue, there are two other obvious obstacles to be overcome if the path laid out above is to be traversed. First, the plethora of injuries that is already plaguing this team has to fade fairly quickly. (Note: Things are looking a little better in that department.) Second, the Big Ten has to be good, but not too good. Michigan, Ohio State, and Minnesota all look like teams destined to be seeded somewhere between 4 and 6 in the NCAA Tournament. If one or more of them takes one more step up on the basketball ladder, getting through the conference slate with just 4 losses becomes a dicier proposition and a #1 or #2 NCAA Tournament seed perhaps slips out of reach.

Every season has its obstacles, though. Last year's team overcame those obstacles in ways that teams from the previous six seasons had been unable to (or were unable to during the regular season, at least). If this year's team can show the same resiliency last year's team did, the sky's the limit.

Six Final Fours in twelve years.

That rolls off the tongue even more smoothly, doesn't it? (Round numbers!) Let the quest commence.

Back to Normal - MSU 76, Northwood 45

Pete Rossman — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 23:25:57 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Kalin Lucas puts up a fast-break shot over Northwood's Booker Stoudmire during the second half of an NCAA college basketball exhibition game, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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For the first half, it looked as if the basketball team had picked up the football team's hangover from last night. MSU was 1-9 on three pointers, 10-28 on two-pointers, and led by three at the half. This was despite getting 11 turnovers from Northwood and having 11 more rebounds than the Timberwolves.

In the second half, a sense of normalcy finally returned to East Lansing, thanks to Durrell Summers. Summers sparked the Spartans' scoring in the second half by making his first four goals, one of those a three-pointer, and State never looked back, scoring 43 points to Northwood's 15 in the second half.

Here are some of my early impressions from the game:

This was a physical game, especially for an exhibition. Lucas, Roe, and Summers all went down at different points in the game. Lucas was alright, no word yet on Roe and Summers.
Same old Lucas. Still quick, still dominant, still maybe tries to drive to the basket slightly too much. (edit - maybe too much - Kalin was apparently 5-21 on field goals? Yikes.)
Of the three big men, I'd rank their performance as so: Nix, then Sherman, then Herzog. Derrick Nix has a sweet drop step and used it a few times in this game to great effectiveness. Garrick Sherman was unremarkable, but effective. Herzog had a couple of good putbacks and blocks, but doesn't seem as strong or explosive as Sherman or Nix.
Favorite moment of the game - Draymond Green in the second half attempting to dunk twelve feet from the rim. He didn't get the basket, but he drew a foul and annihilated whoever the poor defender was from Northwood who tried to defend him. He's deceptively athletic, and had a double-double (14 pts, 11 rebounds).
The Spartans' shooting looks a bit rusty - 36% 2PT, 22% 3PT, 60% FT. Let's hope it was the team getting back up to speed since April.
Turnovers weren't a problem - only 11 in the game for MSU. Draymond Green had four of those.
Assist leader - Korie Lucious with 5. Green had the second-most with 4.

Not a bad first effort for Michigan State, especially in the second half. The second and last exhibition game will be next Monday, November 9th at 7 PM against Grand Valley State, and I'd never thought I'd write the past statement in my lifetime.