SB Nation - Tom Herzog

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. IPFW Mastodons

KJ@theonlycolors — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 01:47:26 -0000

More photos » by Rajah Bose - AP

Cool color-coordinated mouthguard.

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Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs.

THE INDIANA UNIVERSITY-PURDUE UNIVERSITY FORT WAYNE [Pauses to take a breath] MASTODONS

THE BRESLIN CENTER, EAST LANSING, MICHIGAN
NOON (ET), SATURDAY
TV: BIG TEN NETWORK

Mastodon bullets:

2008-09: Overall record of 13-17; 8-10 in Summit League play; KenPom ranking of #222.
Lost to MSU 70-59 last season in a game played in Fort Wayne; IPFW led game with less than 11 minutes to go.
Returned 4 of 5 starters from last seson.
Record of 3-5 to date this season. Lost road games against Wisconsin by 29 and Gonzaga by 35.
Leading scorer is 6'6" senior forward Deilvez Yearby: 16.0 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. The leading-scorer status is mostly a function of taking a lot of shots, though; Yearby is only shooting .462 on 2-pointers and .526 from the line.
6'0 junior guard Ben Botts is averaging 12.0 points per game on .500 three-point shooting (22-44). Botts is a career .445 shooter from beyond the arc.
Dane Fife is a dad!

IPFW's tempo-free profile doesn't have all that much to recommend it. They rank 231st in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 301st in adjusted defensive efficiency.

On offense, the Mastodons don't turn the ball over at an excessive rate (19.8%) and they shoot the 3-pointer pretty well (.360; down from .408, which was 3rd in the country, last season). But, constent with their lack of size (308th in the country in effective height), they don't score efficiently on 2-pointers, get to the free throw line very often, or crash the glass on offense.

Defensively, IPFW has actually rebounded the ball very well for an undersized team (different skills!); opponents have procured only 26.2% of available offensive rebounds. But opponents have also run their offenses without disruption (Def TO%=17.7%) and shot the ball well both insdie the arc (55.1%) and beyond it (37.7%.)

Barring a The-Citadel-like 3-point shooting barrage from the Mastodons, this is a team MSU should handle easily. KenPom predicts a 93-61 MSU win in 71 possessions.

One small wrinkle in the plan to dispatch IPFW with ease, getting tuned up of Texas game next Tuesday night in the process, is that Delvon Roe took a shot to the jaw (from Derrick Nix) in practice yesterday. He expects to play Saturday, but we may see more of the two freshmen up front than usual.

And, on the topic of big men off the bench, apparently Tom Izzo still hasn't give up on Tom Herzog:

"If a pro scout came in and watched him do an individual workout, they would say: ‘Wow!’ He dribbles the ball well, he shoots the ball well, he’s athletic as the day is long, he can do a lot of things. I don’t think he’s crumbling in games as much. He needs more time."

So we'll see how that plays out.

Technical Difficulties: Michigan State 76 Grand Valley 53

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:36:45 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

The big fella looks to score.

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Grumpy Preface: So the $2.99 I invested tonight bought me two hours of almost constantly freezing/restarting video feed. When I sent a message complaining about this to the good folks at bigtennetwork.com, I received a reply indicating--in more jargony words--that this was clearly the result of something I was doing wrong. Given that at least one other TOC reader experienced exactly the same problems, at exactly the same times, I am skeptical.

Anyway, allow me to say this to any BTN executive that may be surfing through: If I--a man trying to watch a video feed on your website using a less-than-six-months-old laptop computer over a medium-grade DSL connection while running no other software applications and not having anyone else in the house access the wireless network at the same time--cannot get a consistent feed, then I think your on-line video endeavor may not turn out to be all that profitable.

More practically: I didn't exactly get a great look at this game, so take everything below with a grain of salt.

Moving on: This was a 71-possession game (box score is here), so the defense was generally better than the offense. That doesn't come as a total surprise, given the state of the roster. Chris Allen, Delvon Roe, and Raymar Morgan all sat out. (The announcers indicated Allen and Roe could have played if this were a real game. As for Morgan, I think we'll do well to get 10-15 minutes out of him for the Gonzaga game.) Durrell Summers, meanwhile, only played 19 minutes, missing a chunk of the game after taking a shot to the eye from a Laker player.

The combination of those things meant that Isaiah Dahlman (23 minutes) and Austin Thornton (19 minutes) got to see a lot of the floor tonight. Neither did a lot to impress, at least offensively, as they combined for just 8 points. Both played solid defense and will be useful options in a pinch (and hopefully not more than a pinch) this season, but lineups like Lucious/Dahlman/Thornton/Green/Herzog are not conducive to scoring points in bunches.

Overall, the defense was solid. The three new big men (including Herzog; we need a nickname for those three to make talking about them as a group less unwieldy) showed their inexperience. Herzog and Sherman both picked up 4 fouls, and all three looked a little lost on switches/hedges at times. (Nix did have a nice steal of a post feed at one point.) Nevertheless, there weren't any major defensive breakdowns, and Grand Valley never really made a game of it, despite the margin staying below 15 for most of the game.

Bullets:

Grand Valley kept things close on the boards, posting a 28.2 OffReb% vs. MSU's 34.2%. But MSU won the turnover battle, as GVSU turned it over on 28.2% of possessions vs. just 15.5% for MSU.
The Lakers ran some zone/trapping looks, which didn't seem to phase the MSU players much.
Draymond Green is your player of the game: 15 points on 10 FG attempts, 11 rebounds, 2 assists (and several other nice passes that didn't result in buckets), 3 turnovers, 3 steals.
Kalin Lucas played 36 minutes, which is more than you'd like to see in an exhibition game. Forced some shots in the lane, converting only 6 of 18 FG attempts. Needs to get the mid-range game going more quickly than he did last season. 4 assists vs. 1 turnover, perfect on 6 FT attempts.
Korie Lucious played 28 minutes, so Lucas and Lucious were on the court together a lot. 12 points on 9 FG attempts. Instant offense.
Derrick Nix was again the most impressive of the big man three-pack (does that work?). 8 points and 3 rebounds in 18 minutes. His points all came early, though, indicating conditioning may still be an issue.
Tom Herzog is still lacking some physical assertiveness, particularly on offense, but I think he's progressing. Pretty good statistical productivity: 6 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 12 minutes.
Garrick Sherman didn't do much tonight: 4 points and 2 rebounds in 13 minutes.
Durrell Summers struggled to score, making only 2 of 9 FG attempts. Some of that may have been a result of having his eye swollen shut for the second half. 5 rebounds, though; he may need to do some extra work on the boards depending on how long it takes Morgan to be fit for 25+ minutes/game.
Second straight game the team didn't shoot all that great from beyond the arc: 4-12. That's a mild concern going into the regular season.
Tom Izzo got teed up in the second half. Not sure exactly why; just caught the technical foul being issued between video feed spasms. The Grand Valley coach had gotten all worked up earlier, so maybe Izzo just didn't want to get outworked on his own court.

Up next: A real-live basketball game! But not so much on a real-live TV network. Florida Gulf Coast (click here to learn more about the Eagles). At home. 7:00, Friday night. Viewable, apparently, on ESPN360. Someone care to fill us in on exactly what that is and how one goes about watching it?

Preseason Musings: What's Left to Say?

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:05:51 -0000

OR "Previewing the Season by Reviewing the Offseason"

With just barely more than a week until the regular season basketball opener, I feel like I should be providing more in the way of preview-like substance around here. But, frankly, after seven months of offseason basketball blogging, I think I'm out of things to say. This is the downside of blogging about college basketball for all 12 months of the year, I guess.

So instead of trying to manufacture something, I thought we'd just go back and look at the various statements I've made about the 2009-2010 Michigan State basketball team since April. All of you can then tell me what I've missed (or, perish the thought, been wrong about). Off we go.

On Kalin Lucas:

On offense, MSU will generally have a stronger offensive group on the floor than it did this season, as Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers consume the minutes Walton leaves behind. Hopefully, this will create more opportunities for Lucas to set teammates up for good shots and result in fewer instances in which he has to generate tougher shots late in the shot clock.

On the other end of the court, Lucas faces a substantial adjustment. During the first two years of his career, Lucas has had the luxury of not having to guard top opposing point guards most of the time, as Walton could be assigned to that task. Next season, Lucas will have to expend more energy on defense, as he becomes arguably MSU's top perimeter defender.

On Korie Lucious:

Look for Lucious to make major strides from his first season to his second. Specifically, he'll need to reduce his turnover rate and become a more consistent defender. He showed flashes of being a very good on-the-ball defender this year, but like most freshmen lacked focus at times.

The final three games of the season illustrate Lucious' potential: He scored 20 points in the 28 minutes he played against the three #1 seeds MSU faced to close the NCAA Tournament. If he can harness that scoring ability and become a more efficient ball-handler, it'll make MSU very hard to stop on offense. He'd give Tom Izzo the luxury of having an explosive point guard on the floor for all 40 minutes of every game and create defensive match-up issues for opponents when both he and Lucas are in the lineup.

On Chris Allen:

You'll note his minutes per game didn't drop as his shooting numbers fell. Tom Izzo's confidence in Allen actually seemed to grow as Allen's shooting problems increased. Defensively, his progress was particularly encouraging, as he became much less prone to mental errors. His progression was one of the keys in MSU's dramatic improvement in 3-point defense in conference play.

Going into next season, Allen's in a similar position to the one he was in last year: If he can become the consistent 3-point shooter he was billed to be entering college, he has the potential to be a 15-point-per-game scorer. The problem is that his college career is now half over and his career 3-point shooting percentage is just 33.3%. If he can move that number up near 40.0%, the potential remains for Allen to become an all-conference-level player, given the way he has progressed in other facets of the game.

On post player playing time:

Looking at the front court, this table provides further indication why Izzo will be looking for significant contributions from the trio of Sherman, Herzog, and Nix: All three are legitimate college centers. Draymond Green is obviously a 4-spot guy. He plays good positional defense but can't be expected to guard taller low-post scorers consistently (as noted by a couple commenters recently). Playing a smaller, quicker lineup with Morgan at the 4 would, then, mean Delvon Roe has to be on the floor. And at 6'8", Roe is not an ideal defender against players 6'10" and up (although Roe's improved athleticism as his knees continue to get back to 100% should help).

The math says SherHerzNix needs to contribute at least 15 minutes per game (to cover for Roe). And another 5-15 minutes will likely be needed in most games, depending on match-ups and foul trouble.

On Durrell Summers:

Unfortunately, after scoring 20 points in three games during that four-game stretch, Summers went into a prolonged scoring slump, scoring just 50 points in his next 11 games. He emerged to make some key contributions during the NCAA Tournament run, but never exceeded a scoring output of 13 points in a game.

Going into the 2009-10 season, here are the best/worse case scenarios for Summers:

Worst case: His junior year is like is sophomore year, with a tad more playing time: spectacular plays at times, inconsistent offensive contributions at others.

Best case: He makes a Morris Peterson-like jump from his sophomore to junior seasons. That four-game scoring explosion is evidence it could happen. He's got all the tools to be a consistent threat to score 15-20 points per game, grab key offensive rebounds, and become a shut-down defender.

On Raymar Morgan:

All in all, I think there's quite a bit for Raymar Morgan to build on going into his senior season--more than initially meets the eye in perusing the stats from his illness-marred junior season. If he can put the statistical efficiency from his sophomore season together with his improved attitude and aggressiveness from this past season, he could have a very special senior season.

Bigger picture, let's step back nine months in time. Last November, who would have though that MSU's top-billed preseason star would become such a limited factor in conference and postseason play and the team would still (1) win an outright Big Ten title and (2) advance all the way to the National Championship Game? There's the silver lining to Morgan's illness: It forced other guys (Durrell Summers and Draymond Green, in particular) to step up and make plays. Did that make MSU a better team last season? Probably. Will it make them a better team next season? Almost certainly yes.

On the 2009-10 Big Ten outlook:

. . . put all that together and you get the following three-months-out TOC Big Ten basketball power rankings:

Purdue

Michigan State

Minnesota

Michigan

Ohio State

Illinois

Northwestern

Wisconsin

Penn State

Indiana

Iowa

With two potential national title contenders and up to nine teams with NCAA Tournament hopes, the conference looks to be as strong as it's been at least since the 2004-05 season (when two Big Ten teams advanced to the Final Four) and maybe as far back as the 1999-2000 season (when the conference last sent seven teams to the Big Dance).

(Note: I'd probably knock Minnesota down two spots in the projected Big Ten standings at this point, given recent events in Minneapolis--although there's still certainly plenty there for Tubby to work with. The rest of the rankings still seem about right.)

On the schedule (this is Pete talking):

The home/away Big Ten game balance seems fair. 4 out of 6 home games to start, and 3 of the last 4 games are also at home.

As to difficulty, I wouldn't say the schedule seems front or back loaded. The degree of difficulty's pretty even throughout the season.

Undoubtedly you noticed that Michigan's the last game of the season. You also might be wondering if it falls on spring break, and the answer is yes. The Purdue game was at the same time last year, and judging by the Izzone's turnout to see the Boilermakers, I wouldn't be worried about a Wolverine invasion.

The last nine games could be shown on national TV. I don't know if that qualifies MSU as elite (if they aren't already), but it darn sure doesn't hurt.

Four weekend home games out of a possible nine is about the definition of fair. No complaints there either.

As to the nonconference, I can't recall MSU having an opponent as big as Gonzaga that close to the start of the season. Gonzaga just lost Austin Daye, Jeremy Pargo, and Josh Heytvelt though, so hopefully the Spartans can take advantage of a bulldog team who will be learning to play without three of their biggest stars. Also note the trip to The Citadel this year.

On Draymond Green:

. . . to what extent does his lack of height limit his upside as an interior presence? There were certainly times this past season when an opponent would grab a rebound over Green's head or turn and shoot over Green's outstretched arms. But those instances were relatively rare. Meanwhile, Green showed a knack for using savvy and positioning to overcome his relative lack of length and he posted very good rebounding numbers playing for the best rebounding team in the country.

Offensively, he showed no fear in going to the basket when presented with the chance. Note that his 2-point shooting percentage increased significantly as the season progressed and the opponents got tougher.

The old basketball maxim is that you can't teach height. But I don't think you can teach teach what Green has, either. I've said it before: Draymond Green is a basketball player. He makes plays.

On Delvon Roe:

If Roe is really back to 100% physically, the sky's the limit for him. The experts are already starting to pay attention: Jeff Goodman has him at #8 on his list of the top 25 players fans need to get to know, and DraftExpress.com couldn't find much to criticize (other than the free throw thing) in ranking him as the #12 NBA prospect in the Big Ten.

Roe has already demonstrated that he's a tough, smart, versatile basketball player. Put those attributes together with the physical talent that made him a five-star recruit and you're going to have a player who will eventually be a contender for the title of Best Big Man of the Tom Izzo Era.

On Tom Herzog:

You don't get voted runner-up for Mr. Basketball without having some decent basketball-playing abilities. And, while you certainly don't want to read too much into statistics from less than two hours of time on the court (mostly against opposing bench warmers), the tempo-free numbers above hint at the fact that Tom Herzog can do some things with a basketball.

On the offense:

Going forward, the hope would be that Delvon Roe and Draymond Green can maintain their rebounding prowess as their minutes go up, making up for the graduation of Goran Suton and keeping MSU's offensive rebounding percentage above 40 percent.

And there's reasons to be optimistic that the team can improve on the other three factors.

Travis Walton's departure will help with shooting percentages. (The loss of Walton on the defensive end will be a different story.)

A full season of a healthy Raymar Morgan and more playing time for Delvon Roe could boost the free throw rate number even higher.

And maybe, just maybe, the turnovers go down as the perimeter guys all pick up another year of experience.

On the defense:

What doesn't show up in the numbers is the effect that losing Walton and Suton may have on our opponents' effective field goal percentage. Walton's ability to shut down opponents' top perimeter scorers is something that won't be matched by any of our returning guards. And Suton had developed a knack for frustrating opposing post players in establishing position and getting good looks at the basket.

While the experience of our core group of perimeter players (Lucas, Allen, Summers, Morgan) should help some with cohesion in playing Izzo's man-to-man scheme with an emphasis on help defense, I'd have to put my money on a slight regression by the team on the defensive end. An offsetting increase in offensive efficiency may be needed to match last season's win-loss results.

On team depth:

After "toughness" and "rebounding," the word "depth" ranks right up there when you're playing word association with the name "Tom Izzo." The 2009-10 team should have it (note that we haven't even mentioned Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman, two players capable of being the 9th or 10th guys on a Big Ten contender). If anything, the challenge is to fit all the depth together, balancing out the relatively experienced group of perimeter players with the less experienced cadre of post guys.

While, of course, there really isn't a magic ratio that automatically leads to Big Ten titles and postseason success, I will posit that depth is a prerequisite for success for Izzo-coached teams. (Other coaches don't necessarily need it.) Based on what we know right now, that prerequisite has been met.

Man, am I prolific or what? (Ignore the fact that these posts were written over a period of approximately 200 days.) So what have I missed? What do you see as the key(s) to success this season? Which player's improvement is most integral to the team replicating the stupendous results of last season? Just how anxious are you to get this show started?

Back to Normal - MSU 76, Northwood 45

Pete Rossman — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 23:25:57 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Kalin Lucas puts up a fast-break shot over Northwood's Booker Stoudmire during the second half of an NCAA college basketball exhibition game, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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For the first half, it looked as if the basketball team had picked up the football team's hangover from last night. MSU was 1-9 on three pointers, 10-28 on two-pointers, and led by three at the half. This was despite getting 11 turnovers from Northwood and having 11 more rebounds than the Timberwolves.

In the second half, a sense of normalcy finally returned to East Lansing, thanks to Durrell Summers. Summers sparked the Spartans' scoring in the second half by making his first four goals, one of those a three-pointer, and State never looked back, scoring 43 points to Northwood's 15 in the second half.

Here are some of my early impressions from the game:

This was a physical game, especially for an exhibition. Lucas, Roe, and Summers all went down at different points in the game. Lucas was alright, no word yet on Roe and Summers.
Same old Lucas. Still quick, still dominant, still maybe tries to drive to the basket slightly too much. (edit - maybe too much - Kalin was apparently 5-21 on field goals? Yikes.)
Of the three big men, I'd rank their performance as so: Nix, then Sherman, then Herzog. Derrick Nix has a sweet drop step and used it a few times in this game to great effectiveness. Garrick Sherman was unremarkable, but effective. Herzog had a couple of good putbacks and blocks, but doesn't seem as strong or explosive as Sherman or Nix.
Favorite moment of the game - Draymond Green in the second half attempting to dunk twelve feet from the rim. He didn't get the basket, but he drew a foul and annihilated whoever the poor defender was from Northwood who tried to defend him. He's deceptively athletic, and had a double-double (14 pts, 11 rebounds).
The Spartans' shooting looks a bit rusty - 36% 2PT, 22% 3PT, 60% FT. Let's hope it was the team getting back up to speed since April.
Turnovers weren't a problem - only 11 in the game for MSU. Draymond Green had four of those.
Assist leader - Korie Lucious with 5. Green had the second-most with 4.

Not a bad first effort for Michigan State, especially in the second half. The second and last exhibition game will be next Monday, November 9th at 7 PM against Grand Valley State, and I'd never thought I'd write the past statement in my lifetime.

Preseason Musings: Depth

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:42:38 -0000

Depth ratio, as formulated last June:

Depth Ratio = (minutes played by top two players) / (minutes played by 8th and 9th players)

This ratio allows us to compare a single number across different teams and captures two key aspects of having depth:

Not relying too heavily on one or two players to play nearly all of the minutes in important games, thereby reducing their ability to defend, rebound, and push the ball in transition with the intensity Izzo prefers.

Having enough bench players to allow everyone to play hard every minute they’re on the floor and be able to deal with foul trouble. Nearly every basketball team has to have seven guys who play significant minutes (five starters plus one perimeter bench player and one interior bench player). Having two more bench players you can count on is what sets a good Izzo team apart from other teams.

As applied to Izzo-era Michigan State basketball teams, the magic number turned out to be 3.00. Teams with ratios below that number have hung some banners at Breslin. Teams with ratios above that number, not so much.

Would the magic depth ratio rule hold for the 2008-09 season?

Season	Depth Ratio	B10 Record	NCAA Result
2002-03	2.35	10 – 6	Elite 8
1998-99	2.62	15 – 1	Final 4
1999-2000	2.67	13 – 3	Nat Champ
2004-05	2.74	13 – 3	Final 4
2008-09	2.90	15 – 3	Nat Runner Up
2007-08	2.90	12 – 4	Sweet 16
1997-98	2.91	13 – 3	Sweet 16
2000-01	2.93	13 – 3	Final 4
2001-02	3.14	10 – 6	1st Rd Loss
1996-97	3.28	9 – 9	–
2006-07	3.96	8 – 8	2nd Rd Loss
2003-04	4.39	12 – 4	1st Rd Loss
2005-06	4.51	8 – 8	1st Rd Loss

In the immortal words of Marv Albert: Yes!

Now you could argue that MSU's depth ratio was somewhat artificially deflated since the #9 player, Marquise Gray, received extra playing time due to Goran Suton's injury early in the season. But the team also had a #10 player, Korie Lucious, who averaged 9.0 minutes/game. This was a classically-deep Tom Izzo team.

Here's how the players on last year's team stacked up in Minute% compared to the prior year's team, along with a projection of the top ten players for the upcoming season.

	2007-08		2008-09		2009-10
1	Neitzel	79.0	Lucas	79.8	Lucas
2	Morgan	69.2	Walton	69.4	Morgan
3	Suton	66.6	Suton	56.3	Roe
4	Lucas	62.6	Summers	53.4	Summers
5	Walton	58.8	Morgan	51.8	Allen
6	Naymick	53.1	Allen	47.6	Green
7	Gray	32.6	Roe	44.9	Lucious
8	Allen	31.0	Green	27.8	Herzog
9	Summers	27.2	Gray	23.8	Sherman
10	--	--	Lucious	22.6	Nix

Going from 2007-08 to 2008-09, Kalin Lucas stepped up to fill Drew Neitzel's shoes as the 30-minutes-per-game guy, with Korie Lucious becoming the back-up point guard option. Delvon Roe, with help from Draymond Green, replaced Drew Naymick. And the #8 and #9 guys from the 2007-08 team, then-freshmen Chris Allen and Durrell Summers, became 20-minutes-per-game players.

In other words: Freshman contributed real minutes right off the bat, and sophomores weren't freshmen any more.

Going into the 2009-10 season, those same two things need to happen. Roe and Green need to suck up the bulk of the minutes Goran Suton is leaving behind, while Korie Lucious fills in at least some of Travis Walton's minutes. At the bottom of the PT spectrum, some combination of Tom Herzog (who is, in some sense, a 4th-year freshman), Garrick Sherman, and Derrick Nix will need to fill those crucial 8th and 9th spots in the rotation.

A lack of interior depth has sunk Spartan basketball campaigns before:

2001-02, following the graduation of Andre Hutson and the early entry of Zach Randolph into the NBA draft.
2003-04, following the graduation of Aloysius Anagonye and the early entry of Erazem Lorbek into . . . wherever it is he entered.

In both cases, young post players (Jason Andreas and Adam Wolfe as sophomores in 2001-02, Drew Naymick and Delco Rowley as freshmen in 2003-04) were unable to fill the void down low.

Hopefully, absent injuries, this season won't parallel either of those two situations. There's only one starter-level post player to replace. And Herzog and the two freshmen are already showing more signs of being able to contribute than the guys in parentheses in the previous paragraph were in a position to during the early stages of their careers.

After "toughness" and "rebounding," the word "depth" ranks right up there when you're playing word association with the name "Tom Izzo." The 2009-10 team should have it (note that we haven't even mentioned Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman, two players capable of being the 9th or 10th guys on a Big Ten contender). If anything, the challenge is to fit all the depth together, balancing out the relatively experienced group of perimeter players with the less experienced cadre of post guys.

While, of course, there really isn't a magic ratio that automatically leads to Big Ten titles and postseason success, I will posit that depth is a prerequisite for success for Izzo-coached teams. (Other coaches don't necessarily need it.) Based on what we know right now, that prerequisite has been met.

Finally, it's worth noting that the past two seasons were the first back-to-back sub-3.00-depth-ratio years since the early Izzo-era Final Four run. The major factors in the peaks/valleys over the 2001-2007 time frame were (1) a rash of early departures (Jason Richardson, Randolph, Marcus Taylor, Lorbek, Brandon Cotton [a VERY early departure], Shannon Brown) and (2) the bunching up of the Hill/Torbert/Anderson/Davis/Ager core playing group, all of whom departed (along with Brown) in a two-year period. (Historical MSU roster is here.)

It would appear Tom Izzo has been able to adjust his recruiting approach to avoid an excess of early-departure guys. The second problem is probably unavoidable as a matter of basic mathematics (Roe/Green/Lucious will depart the year after Lucas/Allen/Summers/Herzog do), but depth-ratio valleys separated by periods of 2-3 years would certainly be preferable to annual fluctuations we've seen prior to these past two years. With a little luck, Izzo can keep the line on the chart below hovering around 3.00 for another decade (or two).

MSU Green-White Basketball Scrimmage Recap

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:00:29 -0000

Yay, basketball! A sport that doesn't make us think about sharp objects!

The lineup format for the scrimmage was first team (Green) vs. second team (White). The starting lineup for the Green team--and, therefore, the presumed opening game lineup at this point--was Lucas/Allen/Morgan/Roe/Herzog. In the second half, though, Summers took Allen's spot and Green took Roe's, indicating that Izzo is basically thinking of seven players as starter quality.

These things always end up being offensive showcases (although the defensive intensity was a notch up from the Midnight Madness scrimmage a week ago). Hence 149 points scored in a 40-minute game involving quite a few players who don't normally score much outside of layup lines. It doesn't look like MSU is going to post a full box score, which is fine since the stats won't tell us much anyway. Chris Allen (22), Kalin Lucas (19), and Isaiah Dahlman (18) were your leading scorers; more on them below.

One stat we do have that's encouraging is the 44.8% combined 3-point shooting percentage put up between the two teams. With Allen, Lucious, and Summers sucking up Travis Walton's minutes this year, the team will likely take substantially more shots from beyond the arc. Knocking down 3-point looks consistently will, therefore, be a bigger key to success this season.

Defensively, there wasn't much to write home about. At halftime, Tom Izzo took questions from the crowd. One of the questions was something like, "Who's your best defensive player right now?" To which Izzo replied, "We don't have one yet." Truth be told, I think the answer is going to be Delvon Roe. Now that he's close to 100% healthwise, he showed a knack for jumping into passing lanes and making steals. Combine that with his defensive rebounding prowess and the surprisingly good blocked-shot rate he put up last season, and he could well contend for a spot on the Big Ten All-Defensive Team.

Also of note: The team did play some 2-3 zone in the second half, so maybe Izzo is serious is about using it more this year in order to mask the inexperience among the post defenders.

Player-by-player impressions:

Kalin Lucas: As quick as ever. 3-point release looks a little more fluid.
Korie Lucious: I was surprised when he took the court to participate in the scrimmage, given that he's been cleared to practice for less than two weeks. But, after that initial surprise, I didn't think about his foot injury again, as he looked completely natural running the point for the White team. Very good news.
Chris Allen: Looked very confident shooting the ball and making moves going toward the basket. None of the hesitation that plagued him for a long stretch of last season. Can he maintain that over 30+ games?
Durrell Summers: Man, can he jump. At one point, someone threw a high pass to him in the corner of the court we were sitting adjacent to (in the lower student section). It looked like he was taking off to fly when he went up for the ball, which he retrieved.
Raymar Morgan: I'm not sure his game is really suited to these sorts of scrimmages, which is fine. Jumpshot looks improved, although still a bit line-drivish. Took and made at least one 3-pointer without hesitating.
Draymond Green: Has slimmed down even more. Took the ball to the hoop without fear, with mixed results. A couple fabulous interior no-look passes. Took a rare preseason-intrasquad-scrimmage charge. Ran the fast break after grabbing a defensive rebound several times. A commenter mentioned him as a point guard possibility if Lucious were to miss any time; I don't think that's out of the realm of possibilities. With the graduation of Goran Suton (who was at the scrimmage), Green is now officially my favorite Spartan.
Delvon Roe: See above regarding his defense. Free throw shooting was fine; no problems on those front-enders. Looks to have improved his mid-range shooting ability, as well.
Tom Herzog: Much more assertive on both ends of court, with a couple strong dunks off passes. Still a few awkward moments, though. Noticed in pregame warm-ups he's got really nice touch on his 15-foot jumpshot; soft release with nice rotation on the ball.
Derrick Nix: Even with the weight he's lost, he's still a load. "Laboring" is the word that comes to mind watching him get up and down the court. But when he gets the ball near the basket, he can't be stopped.
Garrick Sherman: Looked, dare I say it, somewhat Sutonesque. Good nose for finding the ball on the boards; knack for finding ways to score or get fouled down low. Seemed to fade a bit as the scrimmage went on, though. Also, not quite as big as I was thinking he was.
Isaiah Dahlman: Even before he scored his points, I thought his outside shot looked improved; quicker release, good rotation on the ball. Looking to take a leadership role as a senior, directing teammates throughout the game. Could he contribute a few big shots/plays in his final season as a Spartan?
Austin Thornton: Didn't have much impact on the game. Not buying the he's-a-power-forward-now idea. Best shot at regular PT is as a Tim-Bograkos-like defensive spark plug. Might be room for one of those with Walton gone.
Mike Kebler: He can dunk! In warm-ups, at least. Might be more athletic than I had realized and a real option to play a few minutes at PG in a pinch.
Jon Crandell and Anthony Ianni: Thank you for your willingness to play hard in practice, gentlemen.

Overall, the positive takeaway is that Herzog and the two freshmen showed quite a bit of poise and the ability to make varying contributions. My guess is that their respective shares of the playing time down low will fluctuate over the course of the season, depending on match-ups, as none of them look to have the complete package at this point. Herzog against teams with real low-post scoring threats. Sherman against smaller opponents. Nix in short stretches of 2-3 minutes to wear opposing big men down. None of the three when Izzo decides to unleash what will quite possibly be the fastest, most-athletic 1-through-5 lineup in the country with Green/Roe at the 4/5 spots.

Finally, a few amateur photos with super witty captions for your enjoyment:

Korie Lucious trying to bring back the Steve Urkel look.

Raymar Morgan's jumpshot: Now with bonus range!

Sherman thinking, "Let's impress those TOC guys with a stand-out Free Throw Rate today."

"It's just a scrimmage. Don't hurt anyone."

Best basketball player tattoo ever?

Remember this guy?

I'm open! And I can shoot now!

50 pounds later, still plenty of weight to throw around.

Nameless guard goes strong to the hoop.

Oops. Wrong photo album. Stay away from sharp objects.

Checking in with The Only Colors- Michigan St. preview

everydayezag — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 04:47:57 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

In order to learn even more about Michigan St., we checked in with The Only Colors to get their take on the matchup between the Zags and Spartans

Browse more photos »

One of the great aspects of being associated with the SBNation network is the tremendous amount of quality blogs that we have the opportunity to use as resources. As part of our season preview segment, we are trying to check in and get opinions from the blogs affiliated with some of the top schools on the Gonzaga schedule. As part of the Michigan St. preview that went up last week, we decided to check in with The Only Colors to get their take on what this game will mean to Michigan St., and just how highly they think of the team Tom Izzo has. We would like to thank The Only Colors for taking the time to answer our questions, and we look forward to checking back in with them as November gets closer.

Slipper Stll Fits: With the surprising run to the Championship game last season, and a majority of the key contributors returning, this team clearly has high expectations heading into the season. Do you think that the deep tournament run has created unfair expectations for this group, or is this team a national championship contender?

The Only Colors: Last season went as well as anyone could have dreamed going into it: An outright Big Ten championship to end a seven-year conference title drought and an NCAA Tournament run all the way to the national championship game in our own back yard. So I think expectations have to be scaled back at least a bit.

I guess you have to say they're national championship contenders, given that they bring as much back as anyone this side of Kansas. But I'm going to reserve judgment until we see how the team fits together on the court. Good Tom Izzo-coached teams are built on depth and experience, and Travis Walton (defense) and Goran Suton (rebounding) were the kind of guys that make a Tom Izzo team go. Replacing them will be a challenge. I'm taking a cautious approach even within the Big Ten, where I expect the competition will be even tougher this season.

Slipper Still Fits: In Kalin Lucas, Michigan St. has one of the elite point guards in the country. What makes Lucas so dangerous, and where do you think he needs to improve to take his game to the next level?

The Only Colors: Lucas has a rare blend of speed and strength. He can beat you on the fast break, and he can pull up in the lane, take a hit, and convert the big basket. The two areas Lucas can improve in are (1) distributing the ball to other scorers more consistently and (2) becoming more of a factor defensively (something that will be required with Walton's graduation).

Slipper Still Fits: While Lucas is regarded as one of the premier players in the country, Delvon Roe and his health is a very important factor to the success of the team. What have the reports been for Roe, and has he made the jump that many think he is capable of to an elite player?

The Only Colors: Roe's knees are reportedly back to 100% and there's every reason to think he'll be a major force this season. Last year, he was able to focus primarily on rebounding and defense. But he showed flashes of scoring ability, particularly in getting to the free throw line with frequency. With the basketball intelligence he showed as a freshman, I think he could end up being right there in the discussion for the greatest big man of the Tom Izzo era when his career at MSU finishes up.

Slipper Still Fits: As he typically does, Tom Izzo brought in another tough and talented recruiting class. Of the newcomers, which should we expect to see playing time early in the season? Will any of the newcomers be key contributors to the rotation?

The Only Colors: The two incoming freshman are both big men: 6'10", 235-pound Garrick Sherman and 6'9", 275-pound Derrick Nix. Both come in as solid, but not elite, high school prospects. At least one of the two of them will need to step in and play 10-15 minutes behind Roe and Draymond Green. Another guy who's not technically a newcomer, but is a bit of an unknown, is redshirt junior Tom Herzog. Herzog is a 7-footer who's had a hard time putting on weight. We're hoping he becomes a useful contributor this season, though.

Slipper Still Fits: What perception does Gonzaga with Michigan St. fans? Obviously, the game from the Maui Invitational was a classic, but how is the Gonzaga program viewed?

The Only Colors: To me, Gonzaga is one of the great success stories of contemporary college sports. A team with decidedly mid-major resources that has managed to become a household name among even casual college basketball fans (evidence: my mom know who they are). There aren't that many teams Tom Izzo can schedule for a game at the Breslin Center during the nonconference season that will get the Spartan fan base buzzing. Gonzaga is one of them.

Tom Herzog is a statistical monster

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 17:47:15 -0000

Bullet point preface:

No, I'm not writing about basketball just because the football team lost a second consecutive contest in soul-crushing manner.
But it's probably a factor.
This hurt.
I mean, REALLY hurt.
Yes, I've been sucked just a bit into the college football blogging vortex.
(I blame this, to a certain extent, on the void that's been left in my life by my momentous decision to quit fantasy football cold turkey this year.)
BUT:
TheOnlyColors.com is and will be THE blogosphere destination to talk about Michigan State University basketball.
So there.
Eight weeks from now, we're playing Gonzaga!

OK, back to the point of this post. Tom Herzog is a statistical monster. The numbers:

	OffRtg	2pt%	FT%	FT Rate	OReb%	DReb%	Blk%
2007-08	107.4	42.9	50.0	28.5	15.1	9.7	10.2
2008-09	140.0	60.0	57.1	140.0	10.8	29.1	18.2

The second row of data contains some phenomenal tempo-free indicators. Sadly, they came in just 32 minutes of play spread across 16 game appearances. For his career, Herzog has now played exactly 100 minutes of basketball in an MSU uniform. He has played double-digit minutes in just one of his 29 career appearances (a 37-point win over Penn State in 2008).

The last two seasons, it's been easy to lump Herzog together with Idong Ibok in the category of "really tall guys who don't get off the bench unless (1) we're up by 25 or (2) we need someone to absorb a couple fouls." But, really they're two different kinds of tall guys. Ibok was a long, and fairly strong, shot blocker who never really looked comfortable actually, you know, playing basketball. Herzog, meanwhile, is a guy who's shown some basketball skills in his limited appearances but just hasn't been able to put on enough weight to deal with Division 1 post players for more than a few minutes at a time.

It's now been three years since Herzog set foot on campus. It's easy to forget what his résumé looked like at that point:

Averaged 17.3 points, 9.5 rebounds and 5.3 blocks as a senior at Flint Powers Catholic High School, serving as team captain while playing for Coach Jack Pratt ... Finished second in the voting for the 2006 Hal Schram Mr. Basketball Award ... Detroit Free Press Dream Team honoree and The Detroit News All-State Class B member ... 2006 Associated Press Class B All-State selection ... Holds school records for career blocks (400) and blocks in a game (15) ... Averaged 17.0 points, 9.0 rebounds and 5.0 blocks as a junior ... 2005 Associated Press Class B All-State selection ... Earned 2005 Class B All-State accolades from The Detroit News and Detroit Free Press ... 2005 first-team all-conference selection ... Led Powers Catholic to a 21-3 record and a district championship, losing in the regional semifinals ... Shot 69 percent from the floor

You don't get voted runner-up for Mr. Basketball without having some decent basketball-playing abilities. And, while you certainly don't want to read too much into statistics from less than two hours of time on the court (mostly against opposing bench warmers), the tempo-free numbers above hint at the fact that Tom Herzog can do some things with a basketball.

The stars would seem to be aligning for Herzog to become a part of the playing rotation this year as a redshirt junior:

Goran Suton, Marquise Gray, and Idong Ibok have all graduated.
Neither of the team's two returning big men are of the super tall, shot-blocking variety.
Herzog appears to have finally put on some muscle.

In projecting where the post player minutes come from this season, it's easy to get more excited about the two incoming freshmen (Garrick Sherman and Derrick Nix) than it is to get inspired by someone we've seen for the past three seasons, mainly in pregame warm-ups. But don't sleep on Tom Herzog ("The General"?). After all, we all know you can't teach height. But you can add weight. And there may just be a real, live basketball player under that new-found weight.

Facebook-originated information of the not-so-creepy variety

KJ@theonlycolors — Fri, 04 Sep 2009 01:46:50 -0000

The official Michigan State Spartans Facebook page posted a couple pictures from today's basketball team photo session, one of which is displayed above. New information that can be gathered from this photo:

Zach Randolph's number will not be retired. Derrick Nix will wear #50.
Same thing for Marquise Gray's number. Garrick Sherman will wear #41.
There's one other new face in the photo (among the guys wearing basketball uniforms): #44. My internet sleuthing indicates this is former Okemos High School standout Anthony Ianni. (It's also mentioned here, but I sleuthed it out on my own before I saw that. Trust me. Really.) Ianni played two years of basketball at Grand Valley, appearing in 27 games last season and averaging 8.9 minutes and 3.3 points per game for the Lakers. At 6'10" and 239 pounds, Mr. Ianni will presumably be a very handy guy to have around for practices.
Tom Herzog looks just a tad beefier, wouldn't you say?

OK, back to the football talk.

TOC Round Table: Who should be at the gym right now?

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 12:33:58 -0000

Which hoops player needs to make the biggest improvement this offseason for the team to achieve the top-5 level most pundits are assigning to them going into next season?

Pete: Tom Herzog. It'd be nice if Garrick Sherman or Derrick Nix could step in early and provide a boost at the post, but the last person to do that was Paul Davis. Herzog's been here for a couple years, and his heart, focus, and determination have never been in question, just the ability of his digestive system to take nutrients and turn them into muscle. If he gains ten pounds of biceps and triceps and makes three or four plays a game like the start of the Wisconsin game last year, State's going to fly.

LVS: The easy answer is Chris Allen, and I'll stick with that. It's true that he improved his game in many ways this past season--especially his ball handling and defense--but we absolutely need him to shoot better if we're going to be successful. Durrell Summers can serve as our assassin in a pinch, but that's really Allen's job, and I expect that Chris will be much better in 2010.

Steve: I think one wing and one big need to make a substantial jump over their 2008-09 levels in order for the Spartans to contend nationally. The best candidates to make the leap are Durrell Summers and Delvon Roe, with Chris Allen and Draymond Green as Plan B at their respective positions. (Ideally, and not unlikely, it’s all four.) I also think Korie Lucious will develop to at least the level of Summers/Allen’s sophomore seasons.

KJ: I think you have to look at the big men as the keys. With the Lucas/Lucious/Allen/Summers/Morgan quintet available to fill the three perimeter spots, the the team should be in good shape, even if one of them is struggling at any given time. As we've previously discussed, though, there's no proven depth up front once you get past Roe and Green. In a perfect world, Pete's scenario for Herzog plays out. Otherwise, I think the answer to the question may actually be a new player, rather than a returning player: Garrick Sherman will need to quickly move from being a solid high school recruit to being a college freshman with enough skill/toughness to give his team 15-20 minutes per game. (So my answer is basically Pete's answer played backward on the turn table.)

Poll

Which basketball player needs to show the most improvement going into next season?

Chris Allen

42 votes

Durrell Summers

5 votes

Delvon Roe

30 votes

Tom Herzog

94 votes

Garrick Sherman

8 votes

Other

2 votes

181 votes | Poll has closed