SB Nation - Al Nolen

Gopher Hoopsters are on record paces

GopherNation — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 17:00:22 -0000

I took some time too look at the current Gopher roster's career stats and then compared that to the Gopher record book. It is kind of amazing just how many current Gophers are on pace to finish at or near the top of the record books in a number of different categories. Before we get to the numbers and projections and records I want to start with the analyzing of the numbers.

First of all this little exercise made it painfully obvious that we really are lacking on the offensive side of things
. We make our living on doing some of the other little things very well. Nobody on the current roster (freshmen excluded from this conversation) is going to land in the top 20 all-time scorers. Westbrook, Hoffarber, Joseph and Sampson are all potential (or likely) 1,000 point scorers but 1,200 is what is needed to crack the top 20.

This team is also very poor at rebounding, despite sporting a couple 6'11" centers and a do-it-all forward in Damian Johnson. Ralph Sampson and Johnson are likely going to sneak into the top 10 for all-time Gopher rebounders but it will be very close. Iverson with an increase in production from his current rate could also creep into top 10 status but once again it is very close and they'll all three be at least 100 rebounds from finishing in the top 5.

What this team does do well at is steals, assists, blocks and even making threes. Doing these little things well is what helps this team win basketball games. We are not going to outscore anybody but when we force opponent mistakes and when we move the ball on offense we are capable of beating just about anyone. This current Gopher squad has a individuals who have a very good shot at finishing their career as the all time leader in threes made, assists, steals and blocked shots. And behind those individuals there are guys on pace to finish top 3 in the same categories.

What I have done is taken the actual totals for all players on the roster. I've also taken the player's individual average for this year and extrapolated that out over the rest of their career. So the older the player the more accurate the projected career totals. Westbrook and Johnson have three years of actuals and obviously just this year's averages which should have a decent degree of accuracy. The Sophomore class on the other hand has just a year+ of actuals and their current year average is used to project their JR and SR seasons. Obviously their numbers are a bit less reliable and so much can change for them over the next couple years with more (or less) PT and as they mature they may become more (or less) of a focus on either end of the floor.

I also think that some areas are more or less predictable than others. Scoring is harder to project than say blocked shots. I anticipate that Devoe Joseph will score more as he goes along than he currently does off the bench. But I also think that Sampson's block numbers are relatively reliable as this seems to be bit more of a consistent number. So all of these numbers are best guesses. The older the player the better the guestimate, but this is fun to look at.

With all that stated here are my projections.

Three Pointers Made - The first is kind of the hot topic lately with Blake Hoffarber lighting it up from behind the arc in the last couple weeks. 294 as a career projected total is probably on the high end. He hit 70 as a freshman, 45 during sophomore slump and has already hit 29 in this young season. To assume he'll finish his career hitting the same amount of threes per game as he has in 11 games this year is probably a strong assumption. But he does already have 144 and is currently in the top 5 with somewhere in the neighborhood of 65 games remaining. His current career average is 1.8 makes per game so even if you go ultra conservative and assume he'll make just 1 per game the rest of his career he will still be the first Gopher to make 200 threes. Of all the records I discuss, Hoffarber finishing his career as the most dangerous three-point specialist in Gopher history is a virtual guarantee.

After the Hoff we will likely see Joseph finish out his career as one of the top three or four three point "makers." Assume about 100 remaining games for Devoe who has made just under one three per game last year and just over one per game this year. His 179 projection could fluctuate up to 15 or 20 in either direction depending on how his role evolves over time. Either way he'll make a lot of threes before he is done. Finally Westbrook's career is much closer to the end but he should easily get himself into the top 5 or 6 (for now).

Rebounding - This area is rather weak and I am not anticipating this roster to produce a great Gopher rebounder. There is plenty of time for the most likely candidates, Ralph Sampson and Colten Iverson, to start devouring errant shots but neither has shown that knack for really racking up this stat.

Sampson and Johnson are likely going to sneak into the top 10. Randy Breuer is currently 10th with 730 rebounds. But as you can see top 5 is going to require Sampson to kick his average up a notch (or two). He and Iverson still have well over two seasons to increase their totals but just a quick top 5 snapshot looks kind of tough for these guys.

Blocked Shots - let's stick with the big men for one more stat category before we ignore them. This is an area that the current roster absolutely excels at. While we don't rebound very well, this roster is very likely to put at least two players into the top five of all time Gopher shot blockers. Damian Johnson should get into the top five before we are halfway through the Big Ten season and then he'll just scratch and claw and block his way higher up the list. But the one to watch here is Sampson.

Sampson's current pace puts him on a path to be the best Gopher shot blocker of all time. His current season average is rather high so his numbers may be a big skewed, but as he ages he should also see a bit more playing time and opportunities to block more shots. 50 as a freshman and 22 already this year, he should finish his sophomore season with 100+ career blocks and two full seasons to go. Iverson is also a major shot blocker. He had 41 a year ago but his sophomore average has been less than Sampsons, thus the lower projection. Ralph's projection may be a tad high but Iverson's is probably a bit low. Either way he should finish ahead of Przybilla and end up somewhere shy of Johnson's career total.

The point here is that we block a lot of shots and this goes a long way towards our defense being considered as good as it is.

Assists - Now we get into the Al Nolen categories. Despite what many feel about Nolen and what he does or does not do for the current Gophers. Statistically he will go down as one of the best point guards to wear the maroon and gold. Ariel McDonald is arguably the best Gopher PG ever. He is the school's all-time leader in assists and he threw in 1,273 points to go along with those impressive records. Nolen will not approach those points, he'll be lucky to hit 800 for his career. But he is currently on pace to overtake McDonald in assists and will also finish as the school's all time steals leader (more on that later). Great scorer? No. Best Gopher PG? In the conversation.

Nolen is already top 5, will finish this season just shy of Burleson and then has his senior year to make a run at the record. One of the rare instances when we can give a big thank you to Dan Monson.

The surprising player on the roster is Devoe Joseph who has a very real shot at finishing top 5 on the recordbook for assists. His numbers may change dramatically depending on his role in the offense and what position he ends up playing. As he gets older he may be required to shoot more which would likely see his number diminish. But you may recall that part of his recruitment centered on him desiring to play PG at the college level, hoping it would prepare him for the NBA. If he gets that chance he'll easily crack the top 5, if he moves towards more of a traditional SG he'll be a top 10 guy but his current assist pace will slow.

Steals - As I mentioned above, what Nolen lacks in scoring he makes up for with his defense and steals. McDonald is currently the Gopher's all-time leader in assists and adds 1,273 points to go with all of those assists. Nolen will possibly surpass him in assists but will fall short of McDonald's point total by 500 points but he'll also end up as the Gopher's all time leader in steals. Scoring PG? Nope. But clearly he does a lot for this team and usually sets the tone on both ends of the floor. The projection of 320 is probably too high. He current season's pace of three steals per game is quite a bit higher than his career average of just over 2 per game. He won't play the rest of his career with 3 steals per game but another 55 steals over what will be about 55-60 more games is a virtual guarantee. He'll be the schools all-time steal leader, the question will be by how much.

Johnson is not to be forgotten here. He is currently just barely outside of the top 5 and should likely finish second all time (third when Nolen is factored in). He really is the do-it-all forward as he gets his hands on balls, blocks shots, rebounds fairly well and will come awfully close to 1,000 points for his career.

Overall this is a record breaking squad. When this current roster is finished we'll possibly have the new record holders for threes made, shots blocked, assists and steals. If only we had a legit scorer to add to this roster. I did not add Williams or Cobb to this project simply because it is WAY too early to project anything for them. Assuming Williams evolves as a scorer he is this roster's best shot at a 1,500 point scorer but clearly we'll need to see more before we can make any assumptions about his career.

Fun little project to throw together and I'll revisit maybe at the end of the season when we have more concrete numbers for all players involved.

The TDG Big Ten Basketball Preview

GopherNation — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:45:15 -0000

I have intentionally held off with a Big Ten basketball preview, waiting until we could see a few games and get a feeling for how teams are adjusting to the key gains and losses from a year ago. Gopher Nation has plenty to look forward to this season. As we all know everything is returning with some key additions added. An NCAA tournament bid and likely a win or two is expected. But what about the road before the NCAA Tournament. The long and difficult Big Ten season comes first and this team has a chance to really be a factor in the B10 title race. Let's take a brief look at each team in my expected order of finish.

1 - Purdue (NCAA) - Were it not for Purdue having injury issues a year ago they could very likely be defending a Big Ten title this year. Robbie Hummel was last year's preseason B10 POY and he should not be fully healthy to lead the rest of a very talented roster. The bulk of the talent lies in the junior class for the Boilermakers and this team is athletic and deep. Injuries and other uncontrollables aside, what may be the difference between a Big Ten title and a top 2 finish could come down to coaching. Matt Painter is an excellent coach but who knows if he'll be capable of steering his team accurately to win a Big Ten regular season title. Guys like Tom Izzo, Bo Ryan, Bruce Weber and Tubby Smith have the resume of winning multiple titles. I think after this year Matt Painter adds a Big Ten regular season title to his resume.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - E'Twaun Moore
SG - Chris Kramer
SF - Keaton Grant
PF - Robbie Hummel
C - JJ Dawson

2 - Michigan State (NCAA) - I know that Michigan State is the consensus title team and for very good reason. Tom Izzo is a great coach, his team is coming off a national runner-up season and he returns the vast majority of his roster. But my gut tells me they have a great season but one that ends the regular season looking up one spot in the B10 standings. It is really hard not to like Michigan State. They too are deep, very athletic, play great defense and as I mentioned they are very well coached. But I think the one key loss will be the loss that makes the difference. Goran Suton meant a lot to the Spartans a year ago and while this team still has very talented players like Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen and Durrell Summers (with guys like Raymar Morgan and Delvin Roe off the bench); Suton will be missed. Freshman Garrick Sherman may be very good but he's not the same thing. From year to year team's take on different personalities and even the loss of just one player can change the dynamic of a team. Michigan State will be great, they'll be extremely dangerous in the NCAA Tournament but I think they fall a game or two short of Purdue this year.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Kalin Lucas
G - Chris Allen
G - Durrel Summers
PF - Draymond Green
C - Garrick Sherman

3 - Ohio State (NCAA) - In this early season the Buckeyes have looked fairly strong. And leading their early season charge is the outstanding play of Evan Turner, who looks like the early favorite for Big Ten POY (very early, I know). Turner has notched a double-double in all four games averaging 21.7 ppg and 14.7 rpg. OSU has a lot of very nice pieces outside of Turner, which isn't surprising considering the recent string of very highly ranked recruiting classes in the Thad Matta era. OSU has some offensive weapons but they are lacking in a couple key areas. First of all they are not an overly deep team. Jon Diebler is a lights out shooter and Turner might be the best player in the conference but they can only carry them so far. Matta has been going with an eight man rotation so far this year with heavy minutes for the starting five. Secondly this team is not overly strong in the paint. Their perimeter is as good as anybody's in the conference but Kyle Madsen and Dallas Lauderdale will not strike fear into the hearts of the conference's coaches.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - William Buford
SG - Jon Diebler
SF - Evan Turner
PF - David Lighty
C - Kyle Madsen

4 - Minnesota (NCAA) - There was a time when my maroon goggles would have had me rank the Gophers one spot higher. The potential (probable?) losses of Royce White and Trevor Mbakwe greatly lessened my optimism. But then the impressive play of Rodney Williams to start the year has me thinking big things again, just not as grand as before. As we all know the Gophers are deep and defend very well. I think the improvement of the sophomores and the athleticism that Williams brings to the table makes this team dangerous. Over the course of a long season I don't think we have what it takes to finish in the top 2 but this team is good enough to beat anybody on their schedule.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Al Nolen
SG - Lawrence Westbrook
SF - Rodney Williams
PF - Damian Johnson
C - Ralph Sampson III

5 - Illinois (NCAA) - this might be the team I know the least about but I do know enough to know that this team is well balanced and has the roster make-up that is well suited for Bruce Weber. Demitri McCarney, Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale are known quantities around the Big Ten. These guys averaged a combined 33 points, 14.7 rebounds and 7.2 assists per game last year. They compliment each other well and this year they add a couple dynamic freshmen to the backcourt in DJ Richardson and Brandon Paul. In the early goings these kids have 11.3 and 16.7 respectively, although they have yet to play any team of substance. Overall this will be a very good team that will only get better as the season goes along.

Likely Starting lineup
G - Brandon Paul
G - DJ Richardson
G - Demitri McCamey
PF - Mike Davis
C - Mike Tisdale

6 - Michigan (NCAA) - Manny Harris is such a great player who can win a game on his own and probably has the best pro potential in the conference. A lot of people would put the Wolverines as high as third on their prediction list based mostly on the talent of Harris and DeShawn Sims. But I'm not 100% sold on the rest of the team. John Beilein is a great coach and in year three he should really have his guys and his system working well. But once again I'm not sold on the rest of the roster and in this year's Big Ten a guy like Manny Harris will win you a few but on the nights when teams slow him down Michigan will be rather vulnerable. Decent depth, great scoring and not great interior size. A sixth place finish may seem very low but the difference between the 4th through 7th place teams could really only be a couple games.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Darius Morris
G - Manny Harris
G - Laval Lucas-Perry
F - Zack Novak
F - DeShawn Sims

7 - Wisconsin (NCAA) - Rule #1 in Big Ten basketball, never underestimate Bo Ryan and the Badgers. This isn't a great Badger team but there is some talent here with Trevon Hughes, Jason Bohannon and even Jon Leuer is having a pretty good season thus far. It may be easy for Gopher fans to overlook Wisconsin since we did sweep them last year (that was fun to write), but this team is capable of not only beating the Gophers but finishing at least a few spots higher than this. Maybe this is wishful thinking or maybe I'm not sold that the talent is there, not even for Bo Ryan.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Trevon Hughes
SG - Jason Bohannon
SF - Tim Jarmusz
PF - Jon Leuer
C - Keaton Nankivil

8 - Penn State (NIT) - The Talor Battle show will be a lot of fun to watch in Happy Valley. Penn State is perfectly demonstrates why I wanted to wait a couple weeks before I started my B10 preview. I once would have put PSU a spot or two higher, but after losses to UNC-Wilmington, Tulane and a 2-pnt win over Davidson (Steph Curry is no longer there folks) I am thinking that 7th might be too high. This team will go as far as Taylor Battle will lead them but the development of freshman Tim Frazier at PG and how well their interior rebounds is what could be the difference between another NIT run and the NCAA Tournament. Their Big Dance resume is already in bad shape, they'll will have to finish a lot higher in the conference standings to avoid the NIT again.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Tim Frazier
SG - Talor Battle
SF - David Jackson
PF - Jeff Brooks
C - Andrew Jones

9 - Indiana (NIT) - Great recruiting class and I am a huge Tom Crean fan, but this year will be tough for a young Hoosier squad to make much noise in the Big Ten. The conference is the deepest and most talented that it has been in a very long time. Other years a hot, young team like Indiana could make a run into the top 5, but not this year. This will be the sheik team next year and this year you'll likely seen them stun a few top 4 teams along the way. But learning to play at the Big Ten level is not an easy adjustment no matter how talented you are. I wouldn't be completely shocked to see them finish higher, but not likely this year.

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Verdell Jones III
G - Jeremiah Rivers
G - Maurice Creek
PF - Tom Pritchard
C - Christian Watford

10 - Northwestern - This may have been the year for the Wildcats to make the tournament, but the loss of Kevin Coble effectively ended that dream. This is a surprisingly talented NU roster and with the way they defend and execute their precision offense they should never be taken lightly. But with Coble out for the season they'll rely on Michael Thompson and John Shurna. There are a couple intriguing freshmen to go along with Thompson and Shurna

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Michael Thompson
SG - Jeremy Nash
SF - Drew Crawford
PF - John Shurna
C - Luka Mirkovic

11 - Iowa - The outlook for the Hawkeye season is so bleak that they cannot help but surpass expectations this year. Scoring has been the problem this year for Iowa. There will be games when they are hot from behind the arc and maybe they'll get a few conference wins. But for the most part you can expect a lot of losses for Iowa (that too was fun to type).

Likely Starting lineup
PG - Cully Payne
SG - Anthony Tucker
SF - Matt Gatens
PF - Jarryd Cole
C - Brennan Cougill

I know that people hate preseason polls and predictions but at the conference level this is a lot of fun. Everyone has much hope and optimism for the season, except Iowa fans. There are eight teams capable of making a run to the NCAA Tournament (although Penn State is already on life support). The Big Ten should be a blast to watch this year.

Since I'm taking a wild stab at the standings here is my best guess at some post season individual awards.

All Big Ten First Team

PG - Kalin Lucas
SG - Manny Harris
SF - Evan Turner
PF - Robbie Hummel
F - DeShawn Sims

All Big Ten Second Team

G - Taylor Battle
G - Demetri McCamey
F - Jon Diebler
F - Damian johnson
C - JJ Dawson

Big Ten All Freshman Team

G - Brandon Paul - Ill
G - D.J. Richardson - Ill
F - Rodney Williams - Minn
F - Christian Watford - Ind
F - Garrick Sherman - MSU

Gopher Hoops 2009-10 - Expectations

GopherNation — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 17:00:36 -0000

by Andy King - AP

Minnesota forward Rodney Williams, wearing a cape, dunks after winning the dunk contest at the Tubby Tip-off. Fri, Oct. 16, (AP Photo/Andy King)

View full size photo »

I cannot remember a Gopher hoops season that has had Gopher Nation this excited or been filled with this kind of expectations.The team returns all significant contributors to last year's squad that notched a win over an eventual #1 seed, racked up 22 wins and earned an NCAA tournament invitation. That in and of itself is reason for optimism and excitement but the team also adds three or four players who potentially will fill the biggest weaknesses from a year ago. Add to that a proven winner and highly respected head coach, and this season could be one of the best we have witnessed in many years. (and the best part is, next year could be even better, but we'll wait 12 months before we start talking about the 2010-11 season).

Let's first start with the known quantities. What we bring back from a year ago is more than enough to look forward to a winning season that is very likely to end in second consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. Defensively we have two of the best defenders in the conference with Damian Johnson and Al Nolen. We have two talented and developing big men who did a fantastic job of learning how to play Big Ten basketball on the fly. We have a few guards who lacked scoring consistency but they all were capable of putting up points in bunches. And let's not forget a couple of JUCO transfers who have had a year under their belt and are poised to contribute more on both ends of the floor. As stated, with modest improvement, this roster is good enough to finish top 6 of the Big Ten, get an NCAA bid and likely be favored in that first round match up. For a program that has not had sustained success since the Haskins era this would be more than enough for a very fun season in the Barn.

But there are things the returning roster was missing. A consistent and go-to scorer, some athleticism with the ability to get the ball to the rim from the perimeter, depth at PG and some toughness/nastiness inside. A top 15 recruiting class that has the pieces to fill those holes perfectly is what we have coming in to compliment the current roster.

Royce White is a consensus top 40 player in the country. He has the tools to step into this Big Ten roster and immediately fill the role of a dominating scorer. This is likely a role he will have to grow into and he doesn't have to carry the load every night, the hope is that defenses will have to account for him every possession and that will open things up for the other four guys on the floor. Rodney Williams is an athletic freak who should be Big Ten ready defensively but the hope here is that he'll be the one able to break down a defense and finish at the rim or kick it out to one of our shooters. Not having this threat allowed defenses to stick tight to the likes of Blake Hoffarber or Devoe Joseph making it hard for them to find their stroke from behind the arc. Justin Cobbs is the incoming recruit talked about the least but this true point guard should provide depth to the position allowing Al Nolen to play strong throughout the season. Finally we add Trevor Mbakwe. TM is the one I think will add the most to this roster. This guy finally gives the Gophers some toughness, a physical presence inside and some rebounding tenacity. The 2008-09 Gophers were a great offensive rebounding team but defensive rebounding was significant issue at times, I believe TM will change that dramatically.

The question though is will the formula of Returners + Newcomers = great success? Let's hope so, but here is what would be disappointing, surpassing all expectations and a realistic look at what should define success.

A disappointing season is hard to define. Obviously not making the NCAA tournament would be disappointing. Finishing outside of the top 6 in the Big Ten would be disappointing. But I think the minimum bar is winning a first round NCAA tournament game. By my definition making the tournament but losing in the first round again would be disappointing. For this level of defining success I don't care about Big Ten rank. As far as I'm concerned we could finish 7th, make the tournament, win a first round game and I can at the very least get some satisfaction out of this season. Obviously many factors go into this. If Damian Johnson gets hurt, Trevor Mbakwe is not eligible

A wildly successful season, with a pinch of realism, would be a Big Ten championship or maybe even a run to the Elite Eight. There is almost zero chance that this team is good enough to win an NCAA Championship. I could be wrong (I'd be happy to be wrong), but on paper we don't have a lot of holes but we also don't have bevy of superior talent. Now, I DO think this team is good enough to be in the thick of things for the Big Ten title. It isn't likely but if MSU and Purdue struggle or drop a game or two they shouldn't, this team might find it in a title hunt coming down the stretch. Assuming that doesn't happen, I also wouldn't be shocked to see a quick run through the Big Ten tourney resulting in a championship. And finally there is enough talent that with the right match ups and maybe the right upsets an Elite Eight or Final Four run would be a story but isn't completely unfathomable. One of those three scenarios is possible though clearly would be reaching beyond what most feel this team is capable of. I'm not holding my breath but much stranger things have happened in a college basketball season.

So after establishing the lower and upper parameters for success here is what I think is a realistic, if not slightly optimistic, picture of how the season will play out. The 2009-10 Gophers will be a top 5 Big Ten team and ranked in the top 20 for the vast majority of the season. I believe that a third place finish, #4 seed in the tourney and a run to the Sweet 16 is a realistic expectation.

Many of our weaknesses have been strengthened, but this is not a complete team and question marks do remain. So to believe this team is on par with some of the top 10 caliber teams is a bit of a stretch. Are we capable of beating Purdue or Michigan State during any given game? Absolutely, but with questions around consistent scoring and how this group comes together we are just as capable of losing to Michigan, Illinois, Penn State or Ohio State on a given night. When the season plays itself out with the usual ups and downs we usually see I expect we will go 11-1 in the non-conference portion of the schedule and right around 12-6 in the Big Ten which should be good enough for 3rd place.

That will take us into the Tourney where we should be seeded high enough that winning two games will be expected. Crazy things happen in the NCAA tournament so winning two games is not an absolute requirement for a successful season, but given the talent, depth and coaching on this team there is no reason to believe we are not capable of achieving this level of "success."

Poll

Where does this year's Gopher Hoops squad end up?

Final Four

18 votes

Elite Eight

34 votes

Sweet 16

158 votes

Win round 1, lose round 2

67 votes

Another token apperance

18 votes

295 votes | Poll has closed

BtB 2009-10 Big Ten Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 18:44:34 -0000

For all of the beating that the Big Ten took during a particularly rough and tumble regular season, the conference really validated itself in the postseason. Those March and April performances bode well for this season, especially considering that the Big Ten's main contenders didn't lose as much as the contenders in other conferences. For example, all five players on the coaches' All-Big Ten team from last season are back.

The two teams who progressed furthest in the NCAAs, national runner-up Michigan State and regional semifinalist Purdue are the clear favorites in the league, and both teams could make a serious run at a MIdwestern Final Four. Penn State, the NIT champions, will look to improve their standing enough to get into the Big Dance this time around. And of course, Northwestern will look to really shake things up in the league and make it to the NCAAs for the first time. In between, the Big Ten's other five NCAA entrants will attempt to stay in the field. The biggest thing for the conference this year is separating itself from the other BCS leagues, especially in non-conference play. With the Big Ten being hyper-competitive this year, its members really need to distinguish themselves during the early part of the season. Otherwise, teams will be clumped together on lines 8 through 12 of the bracket like last year, which doesn't bode well for sustained tourney runs. More on all 11 teams after the jump.

To refresh your memory, let's take a look at how the Big Ten standings looked at the end of the 2008-09 regular season.

Big Ten Conference Standings

(updated 4.7.2009 at 12:23 AM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Michigan St. Spartans	15	3	31	7
Purdue Boilermakers	11	7	27	10
Illinois Fighting Illini	11	7	24	10
Penn St. Nittany Lions	10	8	27	11
Ohio St. Buckeyes	10	8	22	11
Wisconsin Badgers	10	8	20	13
Minnesota Golden Gophers	9	9	22	11
Michigan Wolverines	9	9	21	14
Northwestern Wildcats	8	10	17	14
Iowa Hawkeyes	5	13	15	17
Indiana Hoosiers	1	17	6	25

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a school's name appears in red, that's a link to its SBNation site. You can go there for more detailed analysis throughout the season.

Iowa (last NCAA: 2006) The long rebuilding process continues for Todd Lickliter. It looks to be another long year in Iowa City, especially since the Hawkeyes have real point guard issues after Jake Kelly (transfer to Indiana State for family reasons) and Jeff Peterson (transfer to Arkansas) left the program. 6-1 frosh Cully Payne will have to adjust to the Big Ten game fast, as he will have to be the main option. If he doesn't, expect sophomore Anthony Tucker (10.4 ppg, 0.6 apg) to move over from shooting guard. The team's only other returning double-digit scorer, Matt Gatens (10.8 ppg), will be a force as he can really shoot the ball (40.3 % from the perimeter and 90.4 % from the free throw line). The Hawkeyes really need more contributions inside, where Jarryd Cole has battled injuries and struggled offensively, which has also been a problem for the rest of Iowa's frontline players.

Indiana (last NCAA: 2008) Tom Crean is also in a rebuilding situation, but he loaded up on recruits this offseason, something Lickliter couldn't quite do. Jeremiah Rivers, son of Boston Celtics coach Doc and a Georgetown transfer, is now eligible and will run the offense. Rivers' steady hand should improve a team that rated near the bottom of Division I in assist/turnover ratio. Meanwhile, the incoming freshmen are so highly regarded that last year's leaders may see reduced playing time. Rivers' arrival, and that of freshman Jordan Hulls, will eat into Verdell Jones' playing time (11 ppg, 3,6 apg). 6-5 Maurice Creek will take time away from Devan Dumes (12.7 ppg). In the frontcourt, Tom Pritchard (9.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg) will still see significant time, and he'll be joined by freshmen Bobby Capobianco, Derek Elston, Bawa Muniru, and Christian Watford. Considering that Crean's returning frontcourt players not named Tom Pritchard only average 0.8 ppg, they should see plenty of action. If they adjust to the Big Ten quickly, the Hoosiers may win some of those close games they tended to lose in 2008-09.

Penn State (last NCAA: 2001) You rarely see teams as happy about winning the NIT than the Nittany Lions last year. PSU had a real case for an NCAA bid, thanks to 10 league wins, but a non-conference schedule full of cupcakes cost them. On that front, the Lions hope they can get some big wins in the Charleston Classic to help their case this time around. In terms of personnel, the good news is that all-Big Ten first teamer Talor Battle (16.7 ppg, 5 apg) is back. The bad news is that his backcourt mates, Stanley Pringle (12.8 ppg) and Danny Morrissey (5.3 ppg) are gone and so is star forward Jamelle Cornley (14.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg). The effectiveness of their replacements will dictate the Nittany Lions' chances of moving up. Sophomores Chris Babb (2.8 ppg) and Cammeron Woodyard (2.2 ppg) will have to step it up to replace Pringle, but incoming freshman Tim Frazier will also play a big role in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, 6-9 Andrew Jones (6.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) is expected to increase his production to make up for Cornley's graduation, so will David Jackson. Both Jones and Jackson played key roles in PSU's NIT run. Serbian freshman Sasa Borovnjak and redshirt frosh Billy Oliver will also see lots of time inside.

Wisconsin (last NCAA: 2009) The Badgers struggled on offense and defense last year. However, Bo Ryan's team was able to right the ship after dropping six in a row in January to sneak into the tournament and grab a first round win over Florida State. However, Ryan lost two key performers off that team, swingman Joe Krabbenhoft and F Marcus Landry. Jason Bohannon (10.3 ppg, 1.7 apg) and Trevon Hughes (12.1 ppg, 2.8 apg) are back, however, so the backcourt remains in good shape, typical of a Ryan-coached team. The returning frontcourt players, led by 6-10 F Jon Leuer (8.8 ppg, 3.8 ppg) and 6-8 Keaton Nankivil (4.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg) will have to be tougher to adequately replace Landry and Krabbenhoft. Look out for the Badgers' two redshirt freshmen, Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans, as they should see significant frontcourt time as well. If the frontline improves significantly, the Badgers could go dancing for the 12th straight year.

Northwestern (last NCAA: None) While Wisconsin (and the rest of the league) has become a consistent NCAA performer, the Wildcats are the complete opposite. Once again, NU is the only team in a BCS conference to fail to qualify for a single NCAA tournament. On March 4, the men from Evanston stood at 17-11, after winning at Indiana, against Iowa at home, and at Purdue. They then managed to lose at Ohio State by 5 to finish 8-10 in the conference. If that wasn't bad enough, they then fell to Minnesota by 13 in the opening round of the conference tournament. The Wildcats cannot let something similar happen this season. Personnel-wise, the Wildcats bring back nearly everyone from last year, most importantly all-Big Ten second teamer Kevin Coble (15.5 ppg, 4.8 apg) and point guard Michael Thompson (9.9 ppg, 3.7 apg), a deadly three-point shooter (41.7%). The major loss is guard Craig Moore (14.3 ppg, 2.7 apg) who graduated. Incoming frosh Drew Crawford could slide into Moore's slot on the roster. He's the son of NBA referee Danny Crawford. If coach Bill Carmody can squeeze a little more from his returnees, who provided solid, if unspectacular and inconsistent performances throughout last season, the Wildcats will finally make the field of 65.

Minnesota (last NCAA: 2009) Expectations are high for Tubby Smith's third season in the Twin Cities. The Gophers will have to find a way to play Michigan State and Michigan better, as they didn't manage to win a single game against those two teams (0-5). The Gophers return all of their key performers from last season, including leading scorer Lawrence Westbrook (12.6 ppg), second leading scorer Damian Johnson (9.8 ppg), point guard Al Nolen (6.5 ppg, 4.3 apg), and big men Ralph Sampson III (6.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Colton Iverson (5.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Sampson and Iverson should see more time at center thanks to the arrival of 6-7 freshman Royce White and JC transfer Trevor Mbakwe, if he's ever cleared to play. Mbakwe is due to go on trial for assault in South Florida in December. Nolen could also see the bench if he's as inconsistent as he was during Big Ten play, thanks to the arrival of freshman PG Justin Cobbs. The Gophers are drawn against Butler in the 76 Classic in Anaheim, which should be a good indicator of how well this team will perform in 2009-10.

Michigan (last NCAA: 2009) Much like with Tubby Smith's Minnesota team. great things are expected in Ann Arbor during John Beilein's third season. Beilein's offensive and defensive philosophies usually take consistent hold in that third season, and the team's performance improves as a result. One of the Wolverines' biggest needs is in the frontcourt, where DeShawn Sims (15.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) was often left on an island last season. Seven-foot, redshirt freshman Ben Cronin should provide some help, as should 6-8 frosh Jordan Morgan, if he plays. Beilein may redshirt him depending on how well he's recovered from offseason knee surgery. 6-10 frosh Blake McLimans and 6-6 junior Anthony Wright may be called into duty frequently. The backcourt is the strength of this UM squad, led by all-Big Ten performer Manny Harris (16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.4 apg). Harris should get more time to drive to the hoop (and get to the foul line), thanks to the arrival of freshman Darius Morris, who is expected to take over at the point. The reserve backcourt players need to show more consistency, as none averaged more than 6.7 ppg, despite some impressive shooting nights.

Illinois (last NCAA: 2009) While the Illini lost guards Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham, the returnees and Bruce Weber's best ever recruiting class should keep the squad near the top of the Big Ten. Demetri McCarney (11.5 ppg, 4.6 apg) already has plenty of experience at the point to replace Frazier. Incoming freshman D.J. Richardson will be called on to replace Meacham, especially from the defensive perspective. Brandon Paul, another heralded recruit, will be an inside-outside threat. In the frontcourt, Mike Davis very nearly averaged a double-double last season (11.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg), so he'll continue to be a force. Mike Tisdale could be a star if he's more aggressive. He has plenty of room to improve on the 10 points and 4 boards he averaged last season.

Ohio State (last NCAA: 2009) The Buckeyes did pretty well last season, winning 22 games and making the Big Ten title game despite losing G/F David Lighty in the seventh game of the year. With Lighty back and all-Big Ten selection/jack-of-all-trades Evan Turner still around, the Buckeyes should be even better this time around. Joining Turner as offensive forces are guards William Buford and Jon Diebler who both averaged a little more than 11 points a game. While Thad Matta has a lot of guys who can shoot, he doesn't have a true point guard. Not that this issue really stopped the Buckeyes last year. Jeremie Simmons (6.8 ppg, 2.5 apg) and P.J. Hill (3.2 ppg, 1.9 apg) saw some time at the point after Anthony Crater's departure for South Florida, with Hill making more of an impact. If the two have issues, Turner, who averaged 4 assists per game last year, could spend some time running the offense. Turner will also see time in the frontcourt, where Lighty will serve as OSU's power forward (9.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg). 6-8 junior Dallas Lauderdale and 7-foot UAB transfer Zisis Sarikopoulos will occupy the post. OSU will be tested early, thanks to a matchup with defending National Champion North Carolina at the Coaches vs. Cancer event in New York, followed by a game with either California or Syracuse.

Purdue (last NCAA: 2009) The Boilermakers bring back nearly everyone from last season's team, which fell to UConn in the West regional semifinals. Thanks to the graduation of Nemanja Calasan, Matt Painter has only two returning post players. However, they're two good ones. Robbie Hummel (12.5 ppg, 7 rpg) should be fully recovered from a stress fracture in his back that cost him five games last season. Meanwhile, 6-10 junior JaJuan Johnson (13.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg) is one of the most electrifying players in the country. They'll be backed up by a crop of freshmen, led by 6-10 Croatian C Sandi Marcius. Purdue's backcourt remains intact. Chris Kramer will provide the defense, E'Twaun Moore the scoring--and some assists (13.8 ppg, 3.0 apg), while Lewis Jackson (5.9 ppg, 3.3 apg) will run the show. The Boilermakers' commitment to defense, led by Kramer, Johnson, and Jackson, is a major reason why they will seriously threaten to make the short trip to Indy this season. If they avoid the health issues of last season, they should get a seed that will help their path.

Michigan State (last NCAA: 2009) While the Boilermakers will attempt to do what the Spartans did last year, make a short trip in state to play in the season's final weekend, don't discount MSU, a team that has plenty of history of its own in Indianapolis. Tom Izzo has a team that may be able repeat Sparty's 2000 triumph. Kalin Lucas, the Big Ten Player of the Year is back at the point. Raymar Morgan is back in the frontcourt. But the biggest questions are how well the Spartan frontcourt plays without Goran Suton and who replaces Travis Walton's defensive prowess in the backcourt. Junior Tom Herzog and incoming freshmen Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman will be given every chance to fill Suton's shoes. Meanwhile, Lucas will have to play more of a defensive role this season than in the past, to make up for Walton's absence. While Lucas is the unquestioned star of the team, he'll need lots of support from players like guards Chris Allen (8.4 ppg) and Durrell Summers (8.6 ppg), and F Delvon Roe (5.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg) to make a second straight Final Four run.

So, the Spartans will hold the Big Ten's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. Check in then to see what other teams from the conference I've penciled in at the start of the season. To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-Big Ten team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-Big Ten Team

Player of the Year: Evan Turner, 6-7 G/F, Jr. (Ohio State)

Remainder of the Team
Talor Battle, 5-11 G, Jr. (Penn State)
Manny Harris, 6-5 G, Jr. (Michigan)
JaJuan Johnson, 6-10 F, Jr. (Purdue)
Kalin Lucas, 6-0 G, Jr. (Michigan State)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the Big Ten this season?

Illinois

72 votes

Indiana

4 votes

Iowa

5 votes

Michigan

12 votes

Michigan State

106 votes

Minnesota

9 votes

Northwestern

5 votes

Ohio State

14 votes

Penn State

20 votes

Purdue

49 votes

Wisconsin

4 votes

300 votes | Poll has closed

Gopher basketball - a Big Ten team on the rise?

GopherNation — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 05:36:37 -0000

The Gophers are entering year three of the Tubby Smith era. After steady improvement in the win column year by year and significant upgrading of the overall talent on the roster, year three has the makings for a special team.

Year one was a season of smoke and mirrors as Tubby used every coaching trick he had to squeeze 20 wins out of a team lacking any real talent. Year two we saw an infusion of young talent to go along with those role players who were becoming veterans. The youth and the experience complimented each other very well en route to a 22 win season and an NCAA Tournament first round match-up with Texas.

Year three sees the team returning it's top nine scorers to go along with a top 15 recruiting class. This team will be exciting and has all of the necessary pieces to be a team that makes a run at the Big Ten title and deep into the NCAA Tournament.

You won't see anybody on this roster listed on a pre-season All-American team and you likely won't see any Gopher on the first team All-Big Ten preseason team. But this roster is full of the necessary ingredients needed for a deep NCAA tournament run. Coahing? Check! Deep and experienced guard play? Check! Big men who can defend and rebound? Check! Youthful, athletic and dynamic players? Check! Defense? Check! Let's take a look at this Gopher club in greater detail.

You can't take a look at the Gophers without first taking a look at the man leading his troops into battle. Tubby Smith brings immediate credibility to any conversation regarding the Golden Gophers. Clearly he was unable to meet the bar of unrealistic expectations in Kentucky but he routinely took his teams to the Sweet 16 and beyond. He has demonstrated ability to navigate teams through the conference season, through conference tournaments and through NCAA Tournaments.

Next, lets talk about the guard play. As mentioned, the Gophers are returning their top nine scorers and three of the top four are guards. Also mentioned, you will not see any of these guys on and All-anything list. They do some things very well, compliment each other well and all play very good defense. The 2008-09 season was successful but this years squad will certainly be deeper and more athletic on both ends of the floor. The team's leading, returning scorer is Lawrence Westbrook who is a streaky scorer who is capable of carrying the team at times. Al Nolen a great on the ball defender and floor leader. Devoe Joseph may take a starting spot away from one of those guys and is poised to have a breakout sophomore season. This backcourt is talented and the the additions of Rodney Williams and Justin Cobb will add some much needed athleticism to the backcourt.

The backcourt is strong but the big men may end up being the real strength of this Gopher club. The team's best player is clearly SF-Damian Johnson. DJ Swat was the Big Ten's best defensive player a year ago and is very underrated on the offensive side of the ball. He does everything very well and if anybody is poised to garner any conference post-season awards, it will be he. Also in the frontcourt sophomores Ralph Sampson III and Colten Iverson had very good freshmen seasons as they managed to be productive on both ends of the floor through an entire Big Ten season. Both will need to take steps forward to make the Gopher interior more feared on the offensive end, but defensively both had very strong years as freshmen. Paul Carter was a JUCO transfer last year and really eased into the Gopher rotation but by the end of the season he was able to step in for Damian Johnson and give quality minutes. But the biggest addition to the Gophers may be transfer, Trevor Mbakwe (if he is cleared to play). Mbakwe is an absolute beast on the boards and wil give us a physical presence on both ends of the floor.

What the Gophers were missing last year was dynamic and athletic scorers. Tubby Smith and his staff brought in a consensus top 15 recruiting class that should perfectly compliment the experienced returning roster. Royce White is coming in to play one of the forward positions and should immediately give the Gopher offense a boost. Rodney White is freakishly athletic who will add a dimension of athleticism not seen in a Gopher uniform in several years. Justin Cobbs is a true PG who will add depth to the backcourt.

What we will see offensively is a bit unknown. It is hard to predict how the top nine returning scorers will fit with the more dynamic incoming players who clearly will have to be a factor in Tubby Smith's offense. But clearly defense will be what drives this team and what will carry them. Al Nolen and Damian Johnson are both worthy of being All-Big Ten defensively. And the frontcourt, with the addition of Mbakwe, should be one of the best rebounding groups in the conference.

Ultimately defense will be what defines the Gopher season. But the returning players plus some very key and well placed additions could make this a very special season at the Barn.

Golden Nugz for 06-16-09

GopherNation — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 09:00:21 -0000

Summer is here and it is just a matter of time before the Howard Pulley Pro-City League starts up again. For those of you who do not know this is great summer league for mostly local professionals (NBA, NBDL, Europe, etc) and D1/D2 players. Guys like Kahlid El-Amin, Kamron Taylor and Troy Hudson played last year against Al Nolen Blake Hoffarber, Damien Johnson and the host of newcomers on last year's roster.

I went to a night of games last year to get a look at Sampson, Iverson, Bostick and Joseph. The games have little defense as you can imagine but it is a great way to get a glimpse of what we will see on the new Barn floor next year. Marcus Fuller has posted what Gophers will be playing with each other.

Team El-Amin Fishhouse (defending league champs)

Paul Carter and Devron Bostick (and Travis Busch)

Troy Hudson's Enterprises

Royce White (no Gopher teammates playing on White's team)

The TRP Group

Ralph Sampson, Justin Cobbs, Damien Johnson

Errol Carlstrom Playaz

Trevor Mbwake and Devoe Joseph

A&A Millwork

Al Nolen and Colton Iverson

B2X

Blake Hoffarber, Lawrence Westbrook, Rodney Williams and walkon Dominique Dawson

It is important to note that the rosters are kind of fluid but to start with if you take a look at this summer's schedule and look for the above teams. I urge you to go, the games are free and it is athletic basketball. Like I mentioned above it is not full of defense but I learned early on that Bostick could not shoot from the outside and that Iverson was going to be a tough player on the inside.

Former Gopher defenseman, Crystal native and current San Jose Sharks assistant coach, Todd Richards has reportedly been offered the Wild head coaching position. I don't know if this is a good hire or bad hire (I know little about hockey) but check out Hockey Wilderness for quality commentary.
Another Marcus Fuller story, this one on Bryant Allen. He will be your next two-sport athlete to wear maroon and gold. Allen is receiving a scholarship to play football, but he is also very good at basketball and will compete for playing time at point guard in Tubby's system.
One of my favorite collge hoops blogs is Beyond the Arc and they have their 2009-2010 Top 25 v2. This one has the Gophers at 19th.
Finally, I don't know howII missed this but Varsity Blue pointed me back to Charley Walters who says Gopher's offensive line coach Phil Meyers may be sending his son to Cretin Durham Hall. Why does this matter? Have I ever posted about the school choices of any Gopher coaches? No, but the younger Meyers will be attending school with Seantrel Henderson (um the number one recruit in the nation). I don't know what kind of NCAA rules prohibit the younger Meyers from talking with Seantrell but I don't think USC or Michigan are going to be enrolling their kids at CDH.

Probing The Enemy: The Daily Gopher

Peter Bean — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 06:42:53 -0000

Prior to 2007, the extent of my Minnesota knowledge was limited to whatever I'd picked up from Garrison Keillor over the years. But in '07 Minnesota AD Joel Maturi first hired former Longhorn assistant coach Tim Brewster to be the main man for football, then shrewdly snagged Tubby Smith for the hoops revival which has the Gophers sitting across from Texas in the first round of this year's tournament. With Minnesota Golden Gophers chatter in Austin officially en vogue, this presents a convenient excuse to haul in the authors of SB Nation's outstanding MN blog, The Daily Gopher.

Not only should you be sure to visit TDG for excellent material of particular interest to Texas fans, but general college hoops fans of any kind should make sure TDG is part of their tournament plans. Tom's got a double-screen DirecTV super set-up primed for the action, which he'll be discussing live throughout the weekend.

Also keep an eye out for my own (bloated) answers to questions asked by TDG.

Best used to discourage littering.

Gentlemen, thanks for taking the time to chat. As always, we start with the most obvious question: What do Minnesotans think of the famous "Don't Mess With Texas" campaign? They ran those ads nationwide, you know. So, fill us in: Did y'all find it intimidating? Did it inspire you not to litter? And most importantly, did it project enough swagger to scare the current Minnesota basketball players? Will they, in fact, decide it's best just not to mess with Texas?

The Daily Gopher: Don't mess with Texas? I watch Friday Night Lights and I thought the Texas slogan was "Clear eyes, full heart, can't lose." Regardless, I think the only thing that matters is that everything apparently really IS bigger in Texas (see Dexter Pittman), that is the biggest thing that should be scaring the Golden Gophers.

Honestly though, I think that biggest intimidating factor for the Gophers is the NCAA Tournament itself. Nobody on this roster has played in the Big Dance and to make matters worse the bulk of our roster is comprised of freshmen and sophomores. So Texas is a big name team, but the bright lights of the NCAA Tournament is likely more intimidating than the thought of what will happen if we mess with Texas.

Whatever their fears, it's safe to assume Tubby's gonna make 'em get on the plane for Greensboro to go compete hard for 40 minutes on Thursday. Minnesota is dancing this year as a 10-seed after a solid 22-10 season, highlighted by a 12-0 start which included a neutral floor win over Louisville. Less promising, my bar napkin math says that means the Gophers were a .500 team over the remaining 20 games. So let's start there: put the "season story" together for us as succinctly as possible.

The Daily Gopher: Well the season took some time to ramp up to the Louisville game in December. While Texas was playing Notre Dame, Villanova, UCLA, Michigan State and Wisconsin the Gophers were getting warmed up with Washington (Eastern not the Pac10 version), Georgia (State), Colorado (State), and a handful of other directional schools. Along the way we did beat a couple eventual tourney teams in North Dakota State and Cornell, but they are not exactly high major competition. So when we headed to Arizona to play then #9 Louisville on a neutral court most of us would have been happy to be competitive and see this program heading in the right direction. Shockingly we won leading early, getting up by as many as 13 in the second half and never looked back. That win put us on the map and clearly was the signature win of the year.

Then the Big Ten season hit, we struggled to generate any offense and we battled to a 9-9 record. The conference season had it's highs and lows. We swept arch rival, Wisconsin and we beat Illinois for the first time since 1993. This is a building block season and I think this team surpassed most expectations.

Let's focus in a little bit now and talk personnel. I want to start with the guards, who seem to me perfectly crafted Tubby Smith warrior ants. Westbrook, Joseph, Bostick, Nolen -- they're all great defenders with excellent speed and quickness, and inconsistent-to-poor jump shooters. (Do you feel like you're haunted by the Ghost of Keith Bogans?) Tell us a bit about what these guards do well when Minnesota wins, and their struggles which contribute to losses.

The Daily Gopher: You are kind of accurate in that they do excel on the defensive end but they aren't all great defenders. Al Nolen is one of the best on the ball defenders you will see all year. As a former coach I get a sick thrill out of watching his footwork, quick hands and how he guards the passing lanes. He will get lost on screens occasionally but on the ball he is as good as they come. Westbrook is quick and an OK defender but he seems disinterested at time. Joseph is a freshman, has terrible footwork but has really improved on his defense away from the ball.

Offensively they have struggled for most of the seaosn with each of them breaking out at random times. Westbrook scored 29 at Wisconsin, Nolen scored 18 in the win over Louisville and Joseph threw in 23 at Penn State. The problem is they lack consistency and when they are playing poorly they turn the ball over too much (especially Westbrook). When they are playing well Nolen is penetrating, Westbrook is just plain scoring (he averaged 40 ppg in high school) and Joseph (and Hoffarber) are nailing from the outside. What kind of production we get from these guys is a total crapshoot.

And now the forwards. True to form, Tubby this year has consistently worked into games a deep rotation of contributors, which in the frontcourt includes junior Damian Johnson, sophomore Paul Carter, senior Jamal Abu-Shamala, and freshmen Ralph Sampson and Colton Iverson. Hold your thoughts on match ups against Texas and just walk us through what this group does and doesn't do well.

The Daily Gopher: Damian Johnson is our do everything player. He is great defensively, second in scoring, third in assists, second in rebounding and second in steals. He is easily one of the most underrated players in the Big Ten and had the Gophers posted a better record likely would have been B10 defensive player of the year. The freshmen centers are solid but clearly still learning. On any given night either of them will go for 11 points and 7 boards. They are not there yet but eventually Big Ten coaches will be gameplanning for our twin towers. Paul Carter is a sophomore JUCO transfer. He is very athletic and has had some huge games but more often than not he is a non-factor. If he plays well on Thursday I really like our chances. And finally Jamal Abu-Shamala. He is slow, average defensively, can usually shoot well and is a senior. If he plays 10 minutes I really do NOT like our chances.

Let's stick with this group for a minute, because in looking over the Gophers' stat pages one of the first things which leaped out at me is the truly ridiculous shot blocking numbers of Damian Johnson (59 blocks) as well as the freshmen twin towers Sampson (49 blocks) and Iverson (41). To have three players ranked among the top 32 nationally in block percentage is a truly mind-boggling accomplishment. Or statistical anomaly. Or something. What the hell's going on here? Both freshmen are both tall but neither reaches 7 feet and Johnson plays at 6-7. Are they uncannily coordinated in terms of timing blocks? Is there something in the system (or guard play) that particularly sets them up to rack up rejections? Tell us what this is all about, and then build on that to share with us how you think those frontcourt players will fare against the 6-11, 295-pound Dexter Pittman. As Stanford's Lopez twins found out during last year's Regional Semifinals, tall is not the same as strong; are Minnesota's big men ready for the Sexiest center in all of college basketball?

The Daily Gopher: They do block a ton of shots and it really helps our defense. Part of their success is that offenses are funneled to them. We put a lot of pressure on the frontcourt which leads to back cuts and penetration to the hoop. But more than anything these guys are just good shot blockers. Johnson is only 6'7" ish but he has a freakishly long wingspan. Sampson and Iverson are not huge but they have great timing and get their hands on a lot of shots. Amazingly these guys have remained disciplined and usually don't get into foul trouble reaching for blocks.

How will this translate into defending Pittman? I have no idea. I imagine he will have his way in the paint, pin us deep and score without the fear of a blocked shot. Defensively Sampson/Iverson are going to have to do a little acting to draw a charge or cheap foul or two as Pittman is wont to foul trouble. Iverson is tough and Sampson is savvy but nobody would accuse those guys of playing "strong." Pittman is a bad match up for us without a doubt, but if he can get into foul trouble we should be able to control the paint.

We've talked about the season and you've helpfully illuminated the personnel situation for us, so let's wrap this discussion with your insights into the particular things Minnesota needs to do well to win on Thursday. And of course, any thoughts you have on red flags you'll be hoping not to see from the Gophers. Finally, if you dare, feel free to throw in any predictions about how this one's looking from your seat in the stands. We promise not to hold it against you.

The Daily Gopher: I have no doubt in my mind that the Gophers are capable of winning this game. But being capable is one thing, actually doing it is another. We are exactly what the pundits have accused the Big Ten teams of being. We are very good defensively and sometimes struggle to generate any offense. With that said I don't think Texas will truly know how well we play defense until they get on the court and find out. I anticiapte we will press, I anticipate Nolen will defend Abrams and I think Johnson will guard Jones. On the defensive end I actually like those match ups. If UT really shows up in the frontcourt and the backcourt then things could get ugly. If Pittman dominates the paint, Abrams gets several open looks that he nails and Jones gets space to operate as he pleases we will lose. But you can count on the Gophers taking away at least one of those, Texas is not a scoring juggernaut so we can keep their points at manageable level.

The real question is can we score? We at The Daily Gopher firmly believe that the Big Ten teams (Minnesota included) are looking forward to not facing a Big Ten defense. The hope is that FG% will go up a little and if Pittman spends some time on the bench we will make every effort to dominate the paint. I think the Gophers press early, force turnovers, get Pittman in foul trouble and win by 7.

Gophers vs. Texas - A Very Quick First Look

GopherNation — Mon, 16 Mar 2009 01:16:52 -0000

Your Golden Gophers are NCAA tournament bound for the first time since the 2004-05 season and only the second time since Clem Haskings era. Here is your facts only quick glance at our opponent, the Texas Longhorns. For a seasons' worth of info on the Longhorn's basketball season head over to Burnt Orange Nation (easily one of the best college blogs out there).

Info

	Minnesota	Texas
Seed	10	7
Record	22-10	22-11
Conf Rec	9-9 (8th)	9-7 (6th)

SOS	37	44
RPI	42	41
KenPom	45	28

Starters and key players

PPG	YR	Size	Minnesota		Texas	Size	Yr	PPG
6.6	SO	6-1	Al Nolen	G	A.J. Abrams	5-11	SR	16.3
12.4	JR	6-0	Lawrence Westbrook	G	Dogus Balby	6-0	SO	3.3
3.7	SR	6-5	Jamal Abu-Shamala	F	Justin Mason	6-2	JR	6.4
9.7	JR	6-7	Damian Johnson	F	Damion James	6-7	JR	15.4
6.4	FR	6-10	Ralph Sampson III	C	Dexter Pittman	6-10	JR	10.0

6.5	SO	6-4	Blake Hoffarber (G)		Gary Johnson (F)	6-6	SO	10.5
5.3	SO	6-8	Paul Carter (F)		Varez Ward (G)	6-2	FR	3.7
4.1	JR	6-5	Devron Bostick (F/G)		Connor Atchley (F/C)	6-10	SR	4.8
5.1	FR	6-3	Devoe Joseph (G)		Clint Chapman (F/C)	6-10	SO	2.1
5.5	FR	6-10	Colten Iverson (C )

For both teams the starting lineups could look differently on Thursday. Hopefully someone other than JAS starts for Minnesota and Gary Johnson has been a starter for much of the season.

Both teams seem to have good size and it is a good match up for the Gophers considering the Longhorn's best scorers will be matched up with our best defenders. I'll get into the players and match ups more as we get closer to the game but this is just to help you familiarize yourself with the roster.

Poll

How will the Gophers fare on Thursday?

Loses to Texas in a close one

39 votes

Loses to Texas and it isn't close

15 votes

Beats Texas on last possession, Hoffarber goes for another ESPY

35 votes

Texas is overrated and the Gophers roll to the second round

45 votes

134 votes | Poll has closed

Big Ten Tournament Preview: Day 1

BoilerTMill — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 16:40:43 -0000

As many of you know, I am a basketball freak. If it wasn't for work tomorrow and the fact I need to take what I can get at this point my butt would be a few blocks from my apartment at Conseco Fieldhouse. Since tickets for Friday's Purdue game are ungodly expensive I was hoping to take advantage of some really cheap tickets for Thursday's contests. I will have to work instead, which is bad because this could be the best opening day ever in the history of the Big Ten Tournament.

What if God built a basketball arena, then put absolute morons in charge of running it...

Last year was just the opposite. There were almost no storylines on day one as Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Iowa, Michigan, and Penn State had little to no chance of getting an at large bid. Minnesota was probably the closest, but they came up short against Illinois in an unexpected semifinal. The Illini nearly ran the table and stole the automatic bid as a 10 seed, but didn't even have enough of a profile for the NIT. Of the six day 1 teams last year only Minnesota played in the NIT. The difference between the good and the bad in the conference last year was just that pronounced.

This year it is different. Penn State, Minnesota, and Michigan desperately need wins to help secure at large berths. Northwestern could make a deep tournament run to get right back into the picture. Iowa can play spoiler, and with 2 wins would claw their way into the NIT or CIB. Indiana is a wild card that can play only to piss on everyone else's parade. They won't go anywhere without four wins in four days, but they can sure hurt some other teams along the way.

#8 Minnesota (21-9) vs. #9 Northwestern (17-12) Noon - As far as competitiveness goes, this may be the closest game of the day. Minnesota has the conference's best out of conference win with a victory over Big East champ Louisville. I think the Gophers are in, but losing to Northwestern won't be a great way to finish the season. That would mean a loss to the Wildcats in 2 of 3 games. Minnesota won convincingly in Minneapolis.

I wouldn't give up on Northwestern's hopes just yet. They have proven they can beat anybody in this conference and they already have wins over the first two teams they would face in Indy. I think getting to the semifinals would possibly put them into the tournament for the first time ever, so they still have a lot to play for. Even one win would give them the most victories over top 50 opponents of anyone in the league. Depending on what happens elsewhere around the country they would at least be in the discussion.

The key to this game will be defense and tempo. If Northwestern can control the pace and force turnovers they will be right there. They have to prevent Al Nolen from running the Gopher offense and distributing the ball. When teams do that the Gophers grind to a halt and cannot get their size involved. Northwestern has to shoot better as well. They shot just 30% in a 72-45 loss in Minneapolis three weeks ago. Northwestern won three straight after that and has held each opponent since to less than 61 points. Minnesota has exactly been lighting the scoreboard up recently either.

If Northwestern can stop Nolen from distributing and make sure that Lawrence Westbrook doesn't get hot they have an excellent chance of moving on. They played determined basketball against Ohio State Sunday but just couldn't get the one break they needed in the final minutes. They still have a ton to play for and I think they will get this game. Northwestern 61, Minnesota 58

#7 Michigan (19-12) vs. #10 Iowa (15-16) 2:30pm - This is the first of two very straightforward games for Big Ten bubble teams. If the Wolverines win they are likely into the tournament. A loss means they are NIT bound. They simply cannot afford a second loss to the Hawkeyes in 3 weeks.

When Iowa won in Iowa City on February 22^nd it was mostly because of a strange decision to bench Manny Harris in overtime. We never found out why, either. Michigan won the game in Ann Arbor by 15, but completely fell apart in overtime in Iowa City.

The biggest question heading into this game is how well the Hawkeyes will play away from home. In conference play they did very well at home, going 5-4. Three of the losses were by 3 points or less to Minnesota, Purdue, and Ohio State. On the road they were 0-9 and had the stigma of being the only team to lose to Indiana. Iowa currently has four players averaging in double figures while Michigan has only Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims.

It is no secret as to why the Wolverines are so up and down. Their fortunes absolutely hinge on the play of Harris and Sims. When those two are on they can play with anyone. If they are off Michigan looks real ugly. They have needed overtime to beat Indiana and Savannah State this season. Laval Lucas-Perry is a wild card too. He had 19 in the huge win at Minnesota last weekend. That was a season high, topping the 18 he had at Indiana, but it was only the second time in 16 games that he has been in double figures.

I just don't think Iowa has it in them to get a win away from Iowa City just yet. This is a rematch of last year's 8/9 game. I have some friends that are Iowa fans that worked with me at the NCAA. They took the day off to watch this game last year and the 55-47 result in favor of Michigan almost made their eyes bleed. If Harris and Sims are on this day I think Michigan wins in a walk. If they are off Iowa can absolutely pull the upset and move on. Michigan 65, Iowa 55

#6 Penn State (21-10) vs. #11 Indiana (6-24) - Penn State has Iowa to thank for playing on Thursday. On paper it looks like they get a free win, but in reality they could have used the bye much more. Had the Nittany Lions not blown their chance in Iowa City they would be sitting as the #2 seed right now and they would feel a lot better about their NCAA chances. Instead, they are the #6 and if Indiana pulls the upset it may knock them out of the tournament.

Indiana is certainly playing better than many people have expected. For a team that has lost 21 of 22 I am sure Penn State isn't treating them like their record reflects. Part of that reason is because the Nittany Lions barely escaped with a home win over the Hoosiers a few weeks ago. This is also a virtual home game for Indiana, and the Hoosiers were much better at home. They play hard and absolutely have a chance in this one.

Indiana was able to stay close to Penn State a few weeks ago because Devan Dumes was shooting well and they limited their turnovers. Indiana essentially played with a six man rotation in that game and may have just run out of gas at the end. They actually led for a good portion of the game but couldn't close the deal.

Honestly, Penn State needs to let their big three of Cornley, Battle, and Pringle dominate. That is one of the best trios in the league. When the Nittany Lions won in Bloomington they combined for 48 of 65 points. As long as those numbers are similar we can expect to see Penn State facing us Friday night. Penn state 70, Indiana 61

Big Ten Hoops Day 5k

I am still looking for people who are interested in joining me for Sunday's Big Ten Hoops Day 5k. The weather on Sunday is supposed to be 54 degrees and rainy, but I am still planning on running if anyone is interested. Afterwards I wouldn't mind scalping some tickets to go see Purdue play in the championship. The run starts at 11am on Sunday morning.

Baseball update:

The baseball team plays its first game in the state of Indiana this season when it plays Butler in Indianapolis this afternoon. The Bulldogs are 1-8 on the year with their only win coming at Marian College in the season opener. I'm sure that cross-town rivalry is heated, but Bulldogs have been awful since. They dropped a game to Taylor University on March 3^rd and got swept in four games at UNLV last weekend by a combined score of 66-19. If Purdue can't win this game it has no business going to the NCAA Tournament or even entering Big Ten play really.

Purdue is currently 2-7 after getting swept at Texas State and will play in the Dunn Hospitality Diamond Classic in Evansville this weekend against Mississippi Valley State (5-5), Evansville (3-8), and IPFW (2-6). It is clear that now is the time that Purdue needs to win some games against opponents it should beat and start building for the conference season. The home opener is March 24^th against IPFW.

Saturday Distraction:

Onward, Kokomo. Beat the Giants (and yes, the guy in the middle is our head coach and not a player since 1996) - Courtesy of my friends at the Kokomo Tribune

Should Purdue win Friday night against either Penn State or Indiana I will be slightly distracted for our Saturday quarterfinal. It is regional Saturday here in Indiana, making it the only real day of the year that it feels like we still have a good high school basketball tournament. My beloved Kokomo Wildkats (15-7) are taking on the evil Marion Giants in the Marion Regional, so I'll have a chance to see some solid talent among all four teams involved. Marion (20-3) and Ft. Wayne Snider (22-1) are solid teams while Anderson (20-4) could surprise. I saw the Kokomo-Anderson game earlier this year and Troy Taylor (a potential Ohio State recruit) dropped 30 in an overtime win for the Indians.

I'll be paying attention to what D.J. Byrd (North Montgomery vs. New Palestine at Shelbyville), Jeff Robinson (Lawrence North vs. Hamilton Southeastern at Hinkle), and Patrick Bade (Franklin Central vs. Pike also at Hinkle) do. Should Kokomo lose and Bade takes on Robinson in the championship at Hinkle that night I may drop in on that game. I don't want to be there though. 11 years ago Marion beat us to end my senior year on our floor in the regional 71-67 in overtime. I have waited since then to return the favor on their floor. This is a bitter rivalry that I know I am not rational about, but I don't care. I'd rather watch Indiana beat us a hundred times than watch the Giants succeed at anything basketball-related.

If Kokomo does win I will likely take the laptop with me and try to do a liveblog of our semifinal at Buffalo Wild Wings.

Does Tubby's Recruiting Class Address the Team's Needs?

PJS — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 14:56:00 -0000

As Tubby Smith's Gophers have stumbled down the stretch, a large contingent of the fanbase has relaxed, noting that this is simply a building year. They point to the lack of departing talent at seasons end and to the team's second consecutive nationally competitive recruiting class.

This is a building block year, many say, and the team will take off as Ralph Sampson III, Devoe Joseph, Paul Carter and Colton Iverson grow along with incoming recruits Royce White, Rodney Williams, Trevor Mbakwe and Justin Cobbs.

Maybe. But I'm not sure the new parts fit our needs.

For much of the second half of the Big Ten slate, Coach Smith has forced the ball inside after he figured out that our outside shooters were suspect at best. And if this team has a strength at the moment, it is scoring inside. RSIII has been solid. Colton Iverson has been OK. Damian Johnson has found ways to score inside.

No doubt this team can still be better inside. And Smith's recruiting class addresses that. Let's take the recruits one by one.

Royce White: A 6'7 combo forward, but more of an interior player than a slasher or shooter, White is the most heralded player Smith has brought in so far. Here's what ESPN Insider says.

White is a strong combination forward that plays more like a power forward than a small forward at this point. He is physical around the basket where on the left low block he likes to face and attack the rim along the baseline. White is strong enough to finish through contact when he gets his shoulders square to the basket. On the right low block he will also face and attack the middle of the lane and finish with his left hand over the defense. White loves to drive left when his faces up. White is an average shooter at best behind the arc and this is an area that he needs to develop along with adding some scoring drives off the dribble.

It's possible that White comes in and immediately takes the reigns as the team's best offensive player. But without an outside option to unclog the lanes, White will have little room to operate. What's not mentioned here that I've seen elsewhere is White's knack for the assist. That's great for a big man to have as he's being double-teamed in the post. But, again, we need an outside shooter to make defenses pay.

Trevor Mbakwe: A Minnesota product who comes to the Gophers from Marquette via Miami Dade Community College, Mbakwe is another interior option. At 6'8 and 220 pounds, Mbakwe is more of a long and athletic type of low post player with the ability to hit a 15 foot jumper, according to ESPN's scouts.

Along with White, RSIII, Iverson, Johnson and Carter, Mbakwe will add to what will be one of the Big Ten's best interior groups. Just two years after the Monson/Molinari regime ended--a regime that was always dominated on the inside--this group will represent a complete 180. Coach Smith has done a tremendous job shoring up his players in the paint.

Rodney Williams: Described as "off the charts athletic," Williams might be the most athletic recruit coming into the Big Ten. Athleticism is certainly one of Minnesota's needs, and Williams should be able to get to the basket against most competition. But he isn't exactly a shooter at this point. From ESPN.

Williams is an above the rim highlight in transition. Catching lobs is his specialty. Williams also scores with a one or two dribble pull up going to his right or a running floater where he uses his leaping ability and length to score over opponents. Skill development must be at the top of his list to be successful in college. Williams struggled to score in a half court setting. He must work on his overall shooting and ball handling. He didn't look comfortable shooting the three or making scoring moves off the dribble (Timberwolve Shootout). He also had trouble finishing at times once he got to the rim because he seem to be anticipating contact instead of attacking the basket.

If Williams can put together a respectable outside game, he could dominate the Big Ten eventually. But his current struggles in the half court and lack of comfort shooting from the outside will reinforce Minnesota's current weaknesses.

Make no mistake, I think Williams is a tremendous addition and will eventually add quite a bit. But I'm not sure he addresses the team's most dire need: A consistent scorer from the outside.

Justin Cobbs: A point guard that will probably be given every chance to win the starting point guard job, Cobbs has earned a reputation as a talented point guard with upside. Interesting analysis here.

Cobbs is one of the most debatable players on the west coast. On the one hand, his competiveness, athleticism, and improved skill are attractive to any coach on any level. However, his decision-making (specifically his shot selection), is troublesome to say the least. He takes very difficult shots early in the shot clock that leave you shaking your head, but there is no question he is a talent. He is extremely explosive in the open court and is very strong going to the basket and had some of the most acrobatic finishes of the tournament (Mission Prep Christmas Classic). He can knock down the 3-point shot and he gets great lift on it.

No doubt that Cobbs' competitiveness is what drew Coach Smith to him. And it's great to see that Cobbs is confident shooting the rock. But Tubby has a short leash and will not put up with out of control shot selection. It'll be intersting to see where Cobbs shakes out next year. Will he earn time at the point? If he does, will Devoe Joseph slide over into the two-guard slot? No matter what happens, Cobbs might be the most important member of this class. If he pans out into a solid point guard who can score, then Minnesota will be scary for the next few years. If not, the Gophers will continue to have the same problems they've been having.

Bryant Allen: A Missouri native who signed a letter of intent to play for Coach Brewster, Allen could be another member of Minnesota's backcourt. At 6' 160, Allen is a point guard who is described as a streaky outside shooter who is very quick and athletic off the dribble. If he plays basketball, he too will be in the mix at the point guard spot.

Conclustion: Each of the incoming recruits could be very good in a number of areas. But in looking at the common perceptions surrounding each of them, I'm not sure this incoming recruiting class has addressed the team's most dire need, that is, finding a guard who can score consistently from the outside.

In fairness, when Smith was putting this class together the largest perceived weakness was a lack of a stable inside presence. No doubt that has been addressed. And Williams' athleticism will be great to see in Williams Arena. But unless Williams, Cobbs, Allen, or current guards Nolen, Westbrook, Joseph or Hoffarber begin to hit shots from the outside, next year's team, while tougher on the inside, might suffer from the same issues.