SB Nation - Shawn Taggart

Memphis: Know Your Sweet Sixteen Opponent

Bill C. — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 19:00:10 -0000

While we wait for ghtd36's Better Know an Opponent piece tomorrow (probably), let's take a look at the numbers. And buckle your safety belts; this is a long flight.

Memphis: 33-3

	Memphis	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.86	1.44
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.11	0.85
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.28	1.05
2-PT FG%	50.3%	39.3%
3-PT FG%	32.9%	29.7%
FT%	69.5%	58.3%
True Shooting %	54.3%	45.7%

	Memphis	Opp
Assists/Gm	14.2	9.6
Steals/Gm	8.9	5.8
Turnovers/Gm	12.5	15.5
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.84	0.99

	Memphis	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	12.6	13.3
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	13.4	11.2
Difference	+0.8	-2.1

Where Memphis is good: Everything associated with defense. FG% defense, steals/turnovers, defensive rebounding, etc.
Where Memphis is not as good: For a team with Memphis' size, they only rebound reasonably well instead of amazingly well. And they turn the ball over a lot.
We'll take a look at their NCAA tourney stats in a bit.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Tyreke Evans (6'6, 219, Fr.)	14.50	0.51	16.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2.1 SPG, 3.6 TOPG
Robert Dozier (6'9, 220, Sr.)	13.87	0.46	12.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.6 BPG, 2.1 TOPG
Shawn Taggart (6'10, 238, Jr.)	11.63	0.47	10.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG
Antonio Anderson (6'6, 214, Sr.)	11.51	0.34	10.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 2.2 TOPG
Doneal Mack (6'5, 181, Jr.)	6.83	0.27	8.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 1.2 APG
Roburt Sallie (6'5, 186, So.)	5.20	0.35	5.7 PPG, 1.6 RPG
Wesley Witherspoon (6'8, 200, Fr.)	3.43	0.25	4.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG
Willie Kemp (6'2, 184, Jr.)	2.83	0.21	3.0 PPG, 1.3 APG
Pierre Henderson-Niles (6'8, 300, Jr.)	2.56	0.20	2.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG
Chance McGrady (6'2, 183, Sr.)	0.86	0.33	0.7 PPG
Preston Laird (6'2, 180, Fr.)	0.74	0.45	0.9 PPG
Matt Simpkins (6'9, 215, Fr.)	0.67	0.12	1.4 PPG

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

First of all, in Memphis' main rotation, there is one guy under 6'5. Eesh.
Put simply, Tyreke Evans will turn the ball over. He's going to play aggressively and occasionally make a stupid play. If his A-TO ratio is under 1.0, Mizzou has a very good chance in this game.
And for that matter, the same goes for the entire team. Their BCI is high because of their high number of steals (and solid assist totals), but this team is turnover prone, and Mizzou will have to take advantage of that.
Memphis is tall but not necessarily huge. Neither Taggart nor Dozier are extreme bangers inside, which will help Mizzou at least a bit. However, while Dozier is a solid offensive rebounder (his OR% is the same as Leo Lyons'), Taggart is absolutely outstanding in the category. Keeping him off the boards and holding Memphis to one-and-done possessions will be crucial.
Memphis is pretty streaky, but they're simply not a very good 3-point shooting team. If Roburt Sallie really has seen the lightbulb go on in the last couple of games, and if it's going to stay that way for the rest of the tournament, then they've got a serious long-distance threat. But if he comes down from his super-human shooting in KC, it will be hard for Memphis to go on one of those 3-point tears that usually doom Missouri. In most circumstances, the more outside shots Memphis takes, the better for the opponent.
Pierre Henderson-Niles' dimensions remind one quite a bit of Texas' Dexter Pittman, but he is not nearly as offensively skilled. Calipari still might choose to play him a hair more than his typical 12.6 minutes per game if his size is causing a smaller Missouri team problems, but we'll see.

What does Pomeroy have to say?

Mizzou is #7 in KenPom's rankings, and while that's great, Memphis is far and away #1, mostly because of defense.

They have the #25 most efficient offense in the country and #1 most efficient defense.
The average Memphis game is about four possessions slower than the average Mizzou game. So much for the "both teams are fast-paced" meme. Memphis only looks fast--they don't play fast.
Teams shoot horribly from inside the 3-point line against Memphis (a thought that gives nightmares to scarred Mizzou fans thinking about how many layups their boys have missed this year), and overall Memphis allows the single worst Effective FG% in the country.
They block a lot of shots (#8 in the country) and pick a lot of pockets (#11 in steals--Mizzou is #3).
Their offense is not very 3-point based (though they do take a lot of them), and they don't necessarily rely on passing and assists for their offense. Lots of driving and close to mid-range shots.
Their bench does not provide a ton of support, and while they're not very experienced, what they are is tall. Very tall. They are #24 in Effective Height (which basically just looks at the average height of the tallest guys) and #2 in Overall Height (which measures everybody's average).

This is a long, lean team that relies on its talent and athleticism to win games. Of their three losses, two (Xavier, Georgetown) came against teams who maybe weren't as athletic as them, but were more physical, and the other came against a unique, athletic Syracuse team. I'd say Mizzou is more like Syracuse than XU/Georgetown, but really none of them are tremendously comparable.

Memphis vs Real Opponents (i.e. major conference teams or NCAA tourney teams)

	Memphis	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.76	1.59
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.03	0.93
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.17	1.17
2-PT FG%	47.3%	43.6%
3-PT FG%	29.8%	29.5%
FT%	65.8%	67.7%
True Shooting %	50.4%	49.5%

	Memphis	Opp
Assists/Gm	15.0	9.8
Steals/Gm	8.8	6.0
Turnovers/Gm	14.6	14.4
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.63	1.10

	Memphis	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	13.9	13.0
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	15.3	10.6
Difference	+1.4	-2.4

Memphis' "real" regular season opponents: Chattanooga, Seton Hall, Xavier, Georgetown, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Gonzaga, and of course CS-Northridge and Maryland. Memphis went 7-3 against these ten teams.
Disclaimer: a lot of these games were played earlier in the season, when Tyreke Evans was still learning the ropes. He's a better player now, but that doesn't render these numbers entirely void.
Suddenly Points Per Shot and True Shooting % are almost equal, and Memphis relies on BCI (a bit) and rebounding (a lot) to win games.
14.6 turnovers per game. That's a lot.

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Robert Dozier	13.15	0.42	11.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 1.7 TOPG
Tyreke Evans	12.44	0.44	14.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2.0 SPG, 4.0 TOPG
Shawn Taggart	12.10	0.44	10.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 1.1 TOPG
Antonio Anderson	9.22	0.25	7.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 3.0 TOPG
Doneal Mack	7.42	0.31	9.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.4 APG
Roburt Sallie	7.27	0.50	8.0 PPG, 1.6 RPG
Wesley Weatherspoon	3.04	0.19	4.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.6 TOPG
Pierre Henderson-Niles	2.92	0.25	2.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.0 TOPG
Willie Kemp	2.17	0.18	3.4 PPG
Matt Simpkins	0.39	0.08	0.5 PPG
Preston Laird	0.20	0.39	1 minute
Chance McGrady	-0.52	-0.52	2 minutes

Again, Evans is a better player now than he was against early teams like Chattanooga and Xavier, but the numbers aren't that different. He's still the same well-rounded, athletic, talented player who turns the ball over a bit too much.
Antonio Anderson could be the key player to watch. He's had decent shooting games and horrible ones. Decent assist-to-turnover games and horrible ones. He handles the ball as much as anybody on the team, and he could make or break Memphis.

And no, he's not this guy:

That's Anthony Anderson.
Evans is the main name for Memphis now, but really the trifecta of Evans, Dozier and Taggart are equally important from a per-minute standpoint. Slowing down any one of them could do good things for Mizzou.

Memphis vs NCAA Tournament

	Memphis	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.13	1.75
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.24	1.02
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.52	1.21
2-PT FG%	58.9%	45.1%
3-PT FG%	44.7%	37.5%
FT%	67.4%	66.7%
True Shooting %	64.9%	52.6%

	Memphis	Opp
Assists	40	19
Steals	20	16
Turnovers	27	24
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.22	1.46

	Memphis	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	20	25
Offensive Rebounds	19	21
Difference	-1	-4

Considering neither CS-Northridge nor Maryland are gigantic teams, the rebounding numbers there are a little surprising (and encouraging). They've been strong on the defensive glass, but they haven't been getting just a ton of second-chance opportunities.
Thanks to Mr. Sallie, the 3-pointers have fallen for Memphis thus far. Sallie was 13-for-19 from 3-point range over the weekend--the rest of the team was just 8-for-28. Again, we'll see if this is a permanent upward trend for the sophomore (and former Husker), or just a couple of hot games, soon to return to the norm.
Again, the BCI is high because of an impressive 40 assists and 20 steals--the turnovers number is still too high for a team about to play Missouri.
Meanwhile, they've strangely only forced 24 turnovers of their own. Again, Northridge did a lot more against Memphis than anybody thought they were capable of doing, and it showed that there might be room for JT Tiller and Zaire Taylor to drive, and it might be possible to get Evans, Doneal Mack, and Wesley Weatherspoon into foul trouble.

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Roburt Sallie	24.66	0.84	24.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.5 SPG
Tyreke Evans	14.53	0.50	17.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 5.0 APG, 2.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 4.5 TOPG
Robert Dozier	13.35	0.39	11.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.5 SPG
Shawn Taggart	13.12	0.49	11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.0 SPG
Antonio Anderson	10.75	0.29	7.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 10.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 4.0 TOPG
Willie Kemp	4.24	0.61	3.5 PPG, 1.0 APG
Pierre Henderson-Niles	2.71	0.32	1.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG
Doneal Mack	1.98	0.11	9.0 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 2.0 TOPG
Preston Laird	0.34	0.34	1 minute
Chance McGrady	0.00	0.00	1 minute
Wesley Witherspoon	-0.28	-0.03	0.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG

Dozier and Anderson have been relatively unimpressive in the tourney thus far, while Evans and Taggart have posted averages quite comparable to their regular season numbers.
The difference, of course, has been Sallie's explosion. Everything Kimmie English has been for Mizzou, Sallie has meant even more for Memphis (English has actually had much higher per-minute averages, but Sallie has played many more minutes). They needed almost every one of his 35 points to beat Northridge.

Keys to the Game

No surprises here.

The 3-pointer. Will Roburt Sallie go off again? What about Kim English? Tyreke Evans or Antonio Anderson? Will Matt Lawrence bring his long-range shot with him to Glendale after leaving it at home during the trip to Boise? Neither team is great at the long-ball, and both teams are good at preventing opponents' long-ball success. Regardless, we know that both teams will still take a lot of 3's, and the team with the 3-pt % closest to 50% will have a significant advantage here.
The offensive rebound. When you look at Memphis' losses and near-losses, two numbers stick out in regard to trying to figure out why Memphis lost/almost lost. The first one is rebounding. Xavier outrebounded them, 44-40. In a 1-point Memphis win, Tulsa outrebounded the Tigers, 43-25. Neither Memphis nor Missouri is full of great natural shooting ability, and there will likely be a lot of missed shots in this game (and therefore lots of rebounding opportunities). Mizzou has to do a better job of grabbing the boards than they have in either of the first two NCAA Tourney games. Leo Lyons had 4 rebounds against Marquette--inexcuseable. He needs at least 7-8 on Thursday.
The turnover. The other trend from Memphis' worse games is turnovers. Memphis had 20 turnovers against both Syracuse and Georgetown. They can get confused by sturdy defenses, and I expect Mike Anderson to vary the defensive looks he throws at Memphis from possession to possession.

Meanwhile, Memphis is also very good at forcing turnovers. Mizzou has taken care of the ball tremendously well in the tourney, and they must continue to do so. They need to force at least 18-20 Memphis turnovers while keeping their own numbers under about 12-14. Winning the turnover battle means getting to take more shots, and Mizzou's going to need every opportunity it can get.

Prediction

When it's time to make a prediction, I usually do a little math. I try to figure out Mizzou's and its opponent's likely points per possession, and then try to figure out the most likely pace. Points Per Possession x Possessions = Points, right?

Looking at how both teams have performed over the year as a whole and most recently, this should be a damn close game. Mizzou will most likely average somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.04-1.08 points per possession (we'll say 1.06), while Memphis will be anywhere between 1.05 and 1.10 (we'll say 1.08). Both teams are streaky, and either could end up in the 1.15 or 0.95 neighborhood, but those are the safest bets. Memphis games are usually played at about a 66-possession pace, while Missouri is closer to 70-72. We'll say there are 69 possessions in this game...which makes for a prediction of Memphis 75, Missouri 73. I'll say this, though: the way this team has played in clutch situations (think Texas, Kansas, Marquette), in a one- or two-possession game, I really like our chances. We'll stick with a reverse jinx attempt, though, and say 75-73 Memphis.

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Memphis Tigers: game preview

Joel — Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:59:26 -0000

The 12-5 Tennessee Volunteers return home with a nice Commodore pelt and prepare to host John Calipari and the 15-3 Memphis Tigers. Memphis isn't perfect this year like they were when these two teams met last year, but the Vols aren't quite Pearlfect, either. Regardless, the teams do appear to be evenly matched and this week's Record of Wrongs figures to be lengthy, so it should be an exciting time on Saturday.

Observations from the stats

Something's got to give, part II. As was the case with Vandy, the Vols' nationally ranked scoring offense figures to be tested by a nationally ranked scoring defense. The Tigers are really good at all sorts of defensivey things, including field goal and three-point percentage defense, blocks, and steals, but fortunately, they don't shoot all that well from the field, and they appear to be no better at hitting three-pointers as do our guys.

Memphis players to watch

Tyreke Evans. Dude's sneaky as Longfellow Deeds' foot-fetishin' butler, ranking 13th in the nation in steals. He's also averaging 16.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game. And he's a guard, so expect a career day for him. It's the law.

Shawn Taggart. Taggart's the Tiger's shot-blocker, and he's averaging almost two rejects a game. He also averages ten points and seven boards per contest.

Other Stuff

KenPom's prediction: Memphis wins 78-76, with the Vols having a 43% chance of winning.

Bullets!

John Calipari is the devil. Or has enough in common with the devil to be mistaken for him at The Kroger.
Under Bruce Pearl, Tennessee is 2-1 record against Memphis and 12-1 against in-state, non-conference opponents. We're 28-1 in non-conference home games during Pearl’s tenure.
Tennessee's bench has outscored its opponents bench 469-280 (27.6 to 16.5 ppg) this season. Chism coming off the bench against Vandy Tuesday night resulted in a monster game from Wheezy that started with two three-pointers. Does he come off the bench again tomorrow? I doubt it for some reason.

The teams' respective January opponents:


Lamar	at Kansas
Marshall	Gonzaga
at UCF	at Georgia
at Tulsa	Kentucky
UAB	South Carolina
Rice	at Vanderbilt
at Tennessee	Memphis
at East Carolina	LSU
Houston	Florida

Anyway, on to the stats:

KEY STATS COMPARISON
Category	Rank	Actual	Rank	Actual
Scoring Offense	7	83.4	45	77.2
Scoring Defense	310	76.3	54	61.8
Scoring Margin	81	7.1	11	15.5
Field-Goal Percentage	91	45.7	179	43.5
Field-Goal Percentage Defense	238	44.4	9	37.2
Three-Point Field Goals Per Game	141	6.6	177	6.2
Three-Point Field-Goal Percentage	264	30.3	244	31.2
Three Pt FG Defense	280	0.366	8	0.285
Free-Throw Percentage	145	69.3	261	65.2
Rebound Margin	20	7.6	63	4.5
Assists Per Game	17	16.9	121	14.1
Assist Turnover Ratio	60	1.13	81	1.07
Blocked Shots Per Game	98	3.9	6	6.8
Steals Per Game	141	7.1	10	9.7
Turnovers Per Game	223	15.0	94	13.2
Turnover Margin	155	0.4	16	4.4
Personal Fouls Per Game	296	20.8	223	19.4

PLAYERS TO WATCH
Category	Player	Rank	Actual	Player	Rank	Actual
Points PG	Tyler Smith	68	17.9
FG%
3-Point FG PG
3-Point FG%
FT %
Rebounds PG	Wayne Chism	42	9.0
Assists PG
Blocks PG				Shawn Taggart	68	1.8
Steals PG				Tyreke Evans	13	2.6
Assist-TO Ratio	Bobby Maze	95	1.94	Antonio Anderson	70	2.06

Syracuse To Play Memphis Tomorrow...If They Can Make It

Sean Keeley — Fri, 19 Dec 2008 23:17:59 -0000

Good thing tomorrow's game against #23 Memphis isn't a nooner. Otherwise the team might be going directly from the airport to the arena. There's some massive delays going on at Hancock Airport right now and even a few cancellations due to bad weather.

Assuming they do actually make it to Memphis, they'll play John Calipari's Tigers at 6pm EST and the game will be televised on ESPN. We don't want to disappoint ESPN or their viewers...the only other thing they can televise is bowling. Don't make them suffer.

(By the way, what ever happened to Lumberjack Sports on ESPN? Am I alone in having thoroughly enjoyed watching Mel Lentz cut through a log three times with a chainsaw in seven seconds? Is this still on?)

If they do make it, the Orange will face a Tigers team that has lost two of it's last four (58-63 to Xavier and 70-79 to Georgetown in OT). They also had a tough time with Arkansas State on Wednesday night. So perhaps we're looking in the mirror when we see each other tomorrow night.

What's working for them is rebouding. The Tigers are tall, no day-to-day players are under 6'5", and they average a very robust 47 rebounds per game. It may just be good timing that Paul Harris will spend more time out of the key and Kristof! and Rick Jackson will see more time down below.

What's not working for them is defense. Memphis is giving up 64.9 PPG, good for 125th in the nation. The loss of Devo is going to be most-felt here as the opportunity to open things up with some well-timed three's could really help. Then again, given that we need well-timed threes and not "what the hell" threes, maybe it is for the best.

Tyreke Evans will be the Tiger the Orange most want to keep an eye on. He's averaging 16.1 PPG. He's horrid from beyond the arc (6-28) so the Orange will do good to keep him outside and let him try to beat them with the longball. Shawn Taggart is the beast down below, averaging 13 PPG and just over 9 RPG.

If the Orange are indeed without Jonny Flynn, well, I think most Orange fans will just hope for the best but expect the worst. My guess is that Flynn will start. What happens from there, we'll just have to see.

SUAthletics.com has the full preview, including a little background on the series between both schools, currently locked at 1-1.

Get a statistical comparison over here if you're into that sort of thing.

Need something to perk you up after all the lame SU Hoops news recently? I've got two things for you. First up, a video montage of SU photos and video from someone who just discovered the "fireworks" transition on his videomaker:

And finally I'll leave you with the thoughts of WAER's Danny Parkins on the Eric Devendorf situation:

...Everyone is a winner - with Devendorf hitting the Mega-Million. Spending time in a soup kitchen or a battered-women's shelter is a noble way to spend the holiday break. And it's a small price to pay in order to play.

Judicial Affairs saves face by not eliminating the suspension entirely.

Jim Boeheim gets the benefit of the team knowing their coach will stand behind them in times of crisis.

And the fans get its star player back in time for Georgetown.

Don't forgot young Kimberly Smith who pretty much got what she wanted as well, right? Devo was punished in a reasonable manner (Remember, after-the-fact it came out that he did not in fact punch her and she was not in fact injured) and she can go on with her business now. While at the end of the day Eric Devendorf is still a dooshbag for doing whatever it is he did to her regardless of what she was saying or doing, at least now he's a dooshbag being punished properly.

Projecting the Hoops Season: Top 25

Zach B — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 20:35:15 -0000

swBefore putting this up I should link my original top 25 which, after a few games, has already changed. UCLA looked bad last night against a pretty darn good Miami of Ohio team. The West is down in basketball this year, well except of course for my beloved Zags. The Big East is once again the dominant conference from top to bottom...but as usual, the ACC has some of the top teams, including the odds on favorite to win it all.

1. North Carolina...Hansbrough is hurt but should be back for the bulk of the season. They are absolutely loaded this year.

2. Louisville...Rick Pitino may finally have his championship year at Louisville. Blue-chip recruit Samardo Samuels joins an already talented Cardinals roster.

3. Connecticut...Barely behind Louisville. Thabeet is sure talking a lot, hopefully he can back it up on the court. I hope Harangody beats him up though.

4. Michigan State...This is my sleeper team. I love Kalin Lucas, there are not many point guards better than him this season. Delvon Roe is another freshman to watch.

5. Pittsburgh...DeJuan Blair is going to be a manchild in the middle and Sam Young has developed into one of the best forwards in the nation.

6. Oklahoma...This one is for Woodrow. Willie Warren is going to be the most productive freshman this season. Blake Griffin will also be the number 1 selection in the upcoming NBA draft.

7. Notre Dame...Still not completely sure about this one. I'm not sure if they have enough talent to put together another great season in such a tough Big East.

8. Gonzaga...This is with as little bias as possible. The Zags are the best team on the West Coast. Austin Daye and Josh Heytvelt are the one's to watch along with Jeremy Pargo.

9. Texas...Damion James does everything for the Longhorns and is one of the most complete players in the nation. Can they replace DJ Augustin?

10. Duke...I usually think the Blue Devils are overrated but I like this team. They have an excellent back court. Kyle Singler is Mr. Fundamental.

See the rest of the Top 25 after the jump...

11. UCLA...I'm just not impressed by their interior play. They have talent but not having Kevin Love is going to hurt. If they had him, they could be challenging Carolina for the top spot.

12. Memphis...The Tigers lost a lot with the departures of Dorsey, Rose, and CDR but they reloading quite nicely. Taggart and Dozier will have to lead this team that will rely on plenty of youngsters.

13. Tennessee...JP Prince's injury worries me but he should be back healthy for the bulk of the season. Bruce Pearl signed one of the best players in the country in Scotty Hopson and he'll be expected to contribute immediately.

14. Purdue...Robbie Hummel is a top player in college basketball this season. Only a sophomore, Hummel will be counted on to make this team go. If they can stay more consistent this year, they could be great.

15. Georgetown...I'm hoping and praying that the Hoyas and Zags match up this season. Dajuan Summers is bound to break out this year. He's got all the tools to be a top tier player this year.

16. Arizona State...James Harden could wind up being the player of the year in college basketball. The Sun Devils should challenge UCLA in the PAC-10.

17. Florida...Florida should be vastly improved from last year. Jai Lucas has transferred but Nick Calathes could make an All-American team by season's end. The Gators are on their way back to the top of the college basketball world.

18. Villanova...This team is nowhere near the Foye, Lowry, and Allen Ray team but they have the potential to be a very good team by the end of the year.

19. Wake Forest...Three five-star freshman will be taking the floor for Wake and they are all taller than 6'9'', I wish Gonzaga could borrow one. Get to know Al-Faroug Aminu.

20. Marquette...The Eagles have been a consistently solid squad for many years and this year will be no different. Jerel McNeal is one of the best guards in the nation and Dominic James is always reliable.

21. USC...If Davon Jefferson was still in the fold, this would be an elite team but now they are forced to rely on freshman DeMar Derozan.

22. Miami...It feels odd to me to put Miami in a top 25 for basketball but they should be a force this season in the ACC.

23. UNLV...I think this is going to be a very special season for Lon Kruger's team. Wink Adams is one of the top guards in the nation and redshirt freshman Beas Hamga should be a man in the middle.

24. Xavier...There will be plenty of new faces in the max for the Musketeers but they have some solid returning players like B.J. Raymond.

25. Saint Mary's...The Gaels deserve a spot in the Top 25 as they have one of the best combos in the nation with Diamon Simpson and Patty Mills. Mills should become a household name by seasons end.

Who Just Missed: I'm not ready to put Kansas in the Top 25 yet. They lost so much from last year's championship team that they'll have to prove it first. The fact that San Diego only got one vote combined in the two major polls is stunning. I have them pegged as a top 30-35 team to start the year. The loss of Jason Richards is going to hurt Davidson a lot more than people like to think. Stephen Curry is a much better player when he can move without the ball. As the point man, he's not going to have that luxury very much. I struggled leaving Baylor out of the top 25. Curtis Jerrells is about as good as it gets in the Big 12. Syracuse has a whole ton of talent but I'm not convinced that Jim Boeheim is going to be able to harness it all.