SB Nation - Robert Dozier

Statistical Comparison: '08-'09 UK to '08-'09 Memphis

Ken Howlett — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 09:21:34 -0000

"Can I get my first Kentucky team to play as well as my final Memphis team?"

With the University of Kentucky releasing the official men's basketball roster for the 2009-2010 season, I thought this might be a good time to do a statistical comparison between UK and Memphis' 2008-2009 stats (and for those who spout-off about the pungent odor emanating from Conference USA, remember this while reading the statistics below; UK played the 61st toughest schedule last year, and Memphis' slate was rated 62nd). So yes, a statistical comparison is relevant, although not completely flawless.

But regardless, the question to be answered is this: Is Calipari capable of urging on his young-gun group of Wildcats, to at least perform as well as his team last year at Memphis?: Last year Cal led Antonio Anderson, super freshman Tyreke Evans, Robert Dozier, Shawn Taggert, and Doneal Mack. I believe that group of Tigers compares fairly to Patrick Patterson, John Wall, Darius Miller, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Daniel Orton, and Darnell Dodson.

Another similarity, last year Memphis ended the season ranked in the lower half of the top-10, and this year's UK squad will begin the season ranked somewhere in that highly desirable upper-crust neighborhood (finally), but the 'Cats will be relying heavily on unproven youth.

The one major difference is that the SEC should be much tougher than last year. The entire SEC East (except Georgia) has a legitimate claim to being a top-30 team, as do SEC West leaders LSU and Mississippi State. So, I think it's reasonable to assume this years Kentucky team will at least play a moderately stiffer schedule than Memphis challenged last year.

But, hey, it's July, what else are we gonna do? Strap in, mucho information to follow:

Kentucky Memphis UK Opponents Memphis Opponents

Possessions Per 40 Min -- 70.2 68.6 70.2 68.6

Comment: Anyone surprised by those numbers? Most would assume Memphis would have averaged more possessions per 40 minutes. Not so, though.

Points Per Game -- 74.1 75.1 66.3 58.8

Comment: Allowing under 60 points per game, in any league, is impressive.

Points Per Possession -- 1.06 1.09 .94 .86

Field Goal Attempts -- 1938 2176 2080 2031

Comment: UK took 142 less shots than their opponents, while Memphis took 145 more shots than their opponents. Has their ever been a team that was roundly considered to be a "good team," which didn't take more shots than their opponents?

Field Goals Made -- 933 979 820 755

Comment: Wait, UK made 113 more shots than their opposition (more on that later), but that doesn't compare to Memphis' 224 made shot advantage.

Field Goal % -- 48.1 45.0 39.4 37.2

Comment: Stellar shooting by the 'Cats on-the-whole, but when a team fails at so many other aspects of the game, it renders solid shooting a lonely highlight.

3-Point FG Att's -- 573 681 715 574

Comment: Allowing 715 three-point attempts would be acceptable if the opponents made a low percentage, but as you will see below, UK allowed 35.5% from beyond the arc. A huge reason Kentucky didn't go dancin'. Raise your coffee mug if you thought Memphis shot 108 more 3-pointers than UK.

3-Point FG's Made -- 202 222 254 172

Comment: That's a point difference of -156 for UK, and +150 for Memphis (and a "win" difference of 33 to 22).

3-Point % -- 35.3 32.6 35.5 30.0

Comment: Sadly, there simply is no comparison between the type of perimeter defense the two teams played last year. UK's three-point defensive performance was the most abysmal effort since the '89-'90 season.

Free Throw Att's -- 777 868 718 720

Comment: Memphis' +91 over UK in free throw attempts is at least partly due to Cal's DDMO, along with having superior athletes. Lots of one-on-one, and when one is clearly a better athlete, one will be shooting more freebies.

Free Throw Att's Per Game -- 21.6 23.5 19.9 19.5

Free Throws Made -- 601 599 494 494

Free Throw % -- 77.3 69.0 68.8 68.6

Comment: Jodie Meeks' 90.2% free throw shooting certainly helped UK's number is this department. Unfortunately, I expect to see a stout statistical drop this upcoming season.

Rebounds Per Game -- 39.8 42.2 35.5 36.6

Comment: Even with a beast like Patterson patrolling the paint, UK only managed a +3.2 rebounding edge. That fact might be why I heard Billy Gillispie plead numerous times for someone, anyone, to help PPat down low.

Offensive Reb's Per Game -- 10.6 13.5 11.9 11.2

Offensive Rebound % -- 34.4 38.0 31.2 30.4

Comment: A weakness all year for UK, was the polar opposite for the Tigers. On the year, Memphis sported a +3.9 offensive rebounds per game advantage over UK -- Memphis averaged 2.3 more offensive boards than their opponents, and UK averaged 1.3 fewer offensive rebounds than their foes.. That's four more possessions per game from simply not giving up offensive position, and hitting the boards like you mean it.

Defensive Reb's Per Game -- 26.3 25.8 20.2 21.9

Defensive Rebound % -- 68.8 69.6 65.6 62.0

Assist % -- 60.7 53.7 46.3 48.2

Comment: Memphis' low assist rate is probably due to the DDMO. But, UK's 60.7% is impressive for a team without a natural point guard. Kentucky's ability to snuff out the assist was admirable, but with opponents running down the floor shooting uncontested 3's, a team's defensive assist numbers tend to look better than the reality.

Assists Per Game -- 15.7 14.2 10.6 9.8

Assist to Turnover -- .93 1.13 .71 .64

Total Turnovers -- 608 464 532 570

Comment: UK committed 144 more turnovers than Memphis, while playing roughly the same pace. UK was a +38 versus their opponents, while Memphis was -106. That's an average of four more possessions per game for Memphis, and yet another primary reason for UK's sub-par year. Committing 76 more turnovers than one's opponents is unacceptable if a team has any designs on winning.

Turnovers Per Game -- 16.9 12.5 14.8 15.4

Steals Per Game -- 6.6 8.9 7.7 5.9

Comment: Yet another major defensive difference in UK and Memphis. The inexperience of UK's guards last year is the primary culprit for UK's low steal number, but whatever the reason, the boys in blue lose another 4.1 possessions per game to the Tigers.

Blocks Per Game -- 6.6 6.0 3.8 2.8

Comment: The shot blocking was impressive last season for Kentucky. With both Patterson and Perry Stevenson coming back, along with the addition of Daniel Orton and DeMarcus Cousins, UK will not be absent at any time, the presence of at least two shot blockers on the floor.

Final Thoughts

So the question isn't, "Can Calipari teach these guys his offensive system in a timely fashion," rather it's, "Can Calipari get these guys to rebound and play defense with purpose?"

That's the way I see it. Last year Memphis didn't blow opponents off the floor with offensive explosions, instead they beat their foes with great defense, solid rebounding, and mindful ball-handling. All areas of weakness for Kentucky.

Now, is Calipari capable of delivering a defensive team which will be vastly improved over last season's sporadic efforts? Well, one thing I keep hearing about our man Cal is that his teams always play hard for him. And one of the by-products of such an arrangement is generally a solid defensive team, because defense is mostly about effort; I don't care which type of "D" one is playing, playing with effort is the key element to defensive competence.

Of course, a modicum flexibility in a coach's defensive philosophy is also an ingredient which should be liberally sprinkled into any successful defensive potion. At least THAT, should not be a problem this year.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats!

The Big Blue Daily Mail -- News for Kentucky Wildcat Fans, June 6th 2009

Truzenzuzex — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 16:23:30 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

Much success to Jeremy Jarmon in the supplemental NFL draft.

Browse more photos »

Today, we will talk about Joe Bolgna's. Specifically, we will be talking about the galactically stupid NCAA secondary violation created by Joe Bologna, knowingly.

You know, I love restaurants, and by all accounts, Joe Bologna's is a very good restaurant. I have personally never been there, but I hear good things about it. I had hoped to go there one day, but after this latest stupidity, I will not be showing up there for the next three years in honor of UK's dissociation. It's bad enough that we have to listen to all the criticisms of Coach Calipari with respect to the allegations going on at Memphis, and all this new kerfuffle over Calipari taking other players, like Robert Dozier and Doneal Mack, who have had questions about their test scores (even if there appears to be no substantive allegations of actual impropriety by Calipari or Memphis) without having to watch the justifiable sniggering of rivals and detractors at the foolishness of a legendary Lexington eatery. Say it ain't so, Joe -- Oops, too late.

Regarding the most recent dust-ups, do I personally believe Dozier cheated on his SAT? Absolutely. There is no way, in my opinion, that somebody has a discrepancy that wide without some kind of problem, I mean, we are talking about a 43% change here. Compare that to Doneal Mack's 22% discrepancy, and you can see why I feel a lot more certain that Dozier did not take the test turned in under his name 10% is believable, 22% is marginal, but 43% is ... well, evidence. Is it proof? No, but it is very strong evidence in the Dozier case, not to mention that someone anonymously alerted Georgia that Dozier was involved in some funny business. Taken together, the facts are surely sufficient to conclude a high probability of impropriety.

Dozier redeemed himself to a great degree, in my mind, by prepping, getting offered a scholarship and graduating from college. But there is very little reasonable doubt, at least in my opinion, that he did not cheat on his original SAT, and he will have to contend with the justifiable doubts about his honesty that come with his apparent unethical actions. Obviously if Memphis or Calipari were in any way knowledgeable or complicit in the apparent Dozier cheating, there should be very serious consequences for both.

So the question becomes, what objectionable activity did Memphis engage in, and by extension, Coach Calipari? As far as I can see so far, none. The time-line in both cases essentially precludes any nefarious involvement by either Memphis or Calipari, but the fact that there have been three cases of alleged academic irregularities against Memphis players recruited by Coach Cal along with the UMass problem with Marcus Camby makes it easy for opinion writers, especially ones predisposed to find Calipari "slick," to point to all this as evidence of wrongdoing. This despite the factual reality that would have made it highly improbable (if not downright impossible) for Memphis or Calipari to be involved, not to mention the NCAA being convinced Calipari was not culpable in either of the cases they have investigated.

In the end, I have absolute confidence in UK's compliance staff, and I believe John Calipari is committed to strict compliance with NCAA rules and regulations. For me, that is sufficient. For others, it may not be. When it's all said and done, assuming no real evidence of culpability by Calipari, his staff or Memphis comes up, the naysayers will eventually crawl back into their dark caverns of self-righteous Cal-loathing, and UK fans will cheer the coming of a new and likely prosperous era of Kentucky basketball. Could I be wrong about all this and Calipari be a direct pipeline to another dark period in UK history? Sure.

But I don't think I am. Call me Tru, the Whatmeworry. Wake me up when we have something other than "guilt by association."

UK Basketball News

Cal: What Committee on Infractions hearing?
Jerry Tipton notes that John Calipari has not tweeted on the NCAA hearing he will be attending by teleconference. Why is this surprising, especially after Calipari said he would have no further comment on the matter?
More guilt by association.
Embrace the hate.
Will Barton update: not scared of Memphis "that is more of a Coach Calipari thing"
Heh. Is Memphis trying to bag Coach Cal?
Memphis Adds Bartons to Recruiting Haul
Looks like we lost the Bartons, if this is right. Bummer.
Walking in Memphis on eggshells
Money Players defends John Calipari and Memphis -- sort of.
Memphis basketball hearing begins
Jerry Tipton explains the hearing process and reports that media interest is low. That's not really surprising -- it's the opinion writers that care, and facts all too often just get in their way.
Memphis officials to meet with NCAA panel
Jody Demling reports the facts, and nothing but the facts.
Memphis basketball teaches the wrong lesson
A genuinely thoughtful editorial that refrains from pointing fingers at schools or coaches, and recognizes the problem for what it is. What I wouldn't give to see more opinion writers address reality instead of their own morbid fantasies.
Former Tigers React to SAT Scandal
Pretty much speaks for itself. The mediagasm continues.

UK Football News

Former UK Star Jarmon To Try NFL Supplemental Draft
Good luck to Jeremy Jarmon. He may well get drafted.

Other UK Sports News

Palmer Resigns at UK, Accepts Position at Virginia
Virginia is Palmer's alma mater. Congratulations to her, we will miss her.

NCAA Sports News

Dawg Sports has some hilarity in SEC coaching.
Definitely worth a read.
Age limit rationale: 18-year-olds are immature, 19-year-olds not
A thoughtful piece by Eamonn Brennan. We do need to admit that there are some players who just don't belong in college. Most of the top five of this year's recruiting class is arguably among them. We might as well face it -- the players don't want to be in college. It is the colleges and the NBA that want them there, for purely financial reasons. Welcome to the new reality, when money easily trumps the best interests of young people we pretend to care about. Maturity has absolutely nothing to do with it.
NWAnews.com says bring back freshman ineligibility.
Never going to happen. I'm not saying it is a bad idea -- in fact, it is probably a good idea. But money will win out in the end. College basketball, and universities in general, are businesses more than ever. Don't expect that to change. I'm not passing judgment, just looking at reality.

Other News of Interest

Nothing today.

The Daily Schadenfreude

The Tomb of Doom: Memphis Beats Kentucky!
Heh. Schadenfreude from a Memphis fan.
"It could be easy for one to ask how Memphis said yes after Georgia said no."
It would be a pretty easy answer, too -- because Dozier went to prep school and met the initial eligibility requirements. He was fully qualified to be admitted to Memphis. The only reasonable justification for not admitting him was the likelihood of the moral turpitude that the SAT discrepancy represented.

But when schools all over the country admit athletes with minor criminal records, are we actually saying that possible (but unproven) cheating on a test score is a greater evil? Maybe so, and maybe it is. But neither Memphis nor Calipari apparently thought so, for whatever that's worth.

Memphis: Know Your Sweet Sixteen Opponent

Bill C. — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 19:00:10 -0000

While we wait for ghtd36's Better Know an Opponent piece tomorrow (probably), let's take a look at the numbers. And buckle your safety belts; this is a long flight.

Memphis: 33-3

	Memphis	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.86	1.44
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.11	0.85
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.28	1.05
2-PT FG%	50.3%	39.3%
3-PT FG%	32.9%	29.7%
FT%	69.5%	58.3%
True Shooting %	54.3%	45.7%

	Memphis	Opp
Assists/Gm	14.2	9.6
Steals/Gm	8.9	5.8
Turnovers/Gm	12.5	15.5
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.84	0.99

	Memphis	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	12.6	13.3
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	13.4	11.2
Difference	+0.8	-2.1

Where Memphis is good: Everything associated with defense. FG% defense, steals/turnovers, defensive rebounding, etc.
Where Memphis is not as good: For a team with Memphis' size, they only rebound reasonably well instead of amazingly well. And they turn the ball over a lot.
We'll take a look at their NCAA tourney stats in a bit.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Tyreke Evans (6'6, 219, Fr.)	14.50	0.51	16.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2.1 SPG, 3.6 TOPG
Robert Dozier (6'9, 220, Sr.)	13.87	0.46	12.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 1.6 BPG, 2.1 TOPG
Shawn Taggart (6'10, 238, Jr.)	11.63	0.47	10.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG
Antonio Anderson (6'6, 214, Sr.)	11.51	0.34	10.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.5 APG, 1.5 SPG, 2.2 TOPG
Doneal Mack (6'5, 181, Jr.)	6.83	0.27	8.9 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 1.2 APG
Roburt Sallie (6'5, 186, So.)	5.20	0.35	5.7 PPG, 1.6 RPG
Wesley Witherspoon (6'8, 200, Fr.)	3.43	0.25	4.1 PPG, 2.2 RPG
Willie Kemp (6'2, 184, Jr.)	2.83	0.21	3.0 PPG, 1.3 APG
Pierre Henderson-Niles (6'8, 300, Jr.)	2.56	0.20	2.4 PPG, 3.6 RPG
Chance McGrady (6'2, 183, Sr.)	0.86	0.33	0.7 PPG
Preston Laird (6'2, 180, Fr.)	0.74	0.45	0.9 PPG
Matt Simpkins (6'9, 215, Fr.)	0.67	0.12	1.4 PPG

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

First of all, in Memphis' main rotation, there is one guy under 6'5. Eesh.
Put simply, Tyreke Evans will turn the ball over. He's going to play aggressively and occasionally make a stupid play. If his A-TO ratio is under 1.0, Mizzou has a very good chance in this game.
And for that matter, the same goes for the entire team. Their BCI is high because of their high number of steals (and solid assist totals), but this team is turnover prone, and Mizzou will have to take advantage of that.
Memphis is tall but not necessarily huge. Neither Taggart nor Dozier are extreme bangers inside, which will help Mizzou at least a bit. However, while Dozier is a solid offensive rebounder (his OR% is the same as Leo Lyons'), Taggart is absolutely outstanding in the category. Keeping him off the boards and holding Memphis to one-and-done possessions will be crucial.
Memphis is pretty streaky, but they're simply not a very good 3-point shooting team. If Roburt Sallie really has seen the lightbulb go on in the last couple of games, and if it's going to stay that way for the rest of the tournament, then they've got a serious long-distance threat. But if he comes down from his super-human shooting in KC, it will be hard for Memphis to go on one of those 3-point tears that usually doom Missouri. In most circumstances, the more outside shots Memphis takes, the better for the opponent.
Pierre Henderson-Niles' dimensions remind one quite a bit of Texas' Dexter Pittman, but he is not nearly as offensively skilled. Calipari still might choose to play him a hair more than his typical 12.6 minutes per game if his size is causing a smaller Missouri team problems, but we'll see.

What does Pomeroy have to say?

Mizzou is #7 in KenPom's rankings, and while that's great, Memphis is far and away #1, mostly because of defense.

They have the #25 most efficient offense in the country and #1 most efficient defense.
The average Memphis game is about four possessions slower than the average Mizzou game. So much for the "both teams are fast-paced" meme. Memphis only looks fast--they don't play fast.
Teams shoot horribly from inside the 3-point line against Memphis (a thought that gives nightmares to scarred Mizzou fans thinking about how many layups their boys have missed this year), and overall Memphis allows the single worst Effective FG% in the country.
They block a lot of shots (#8 in the country) and pick a lot of pockets (#11 in steals--Mizzou is #3).
Their offense is not very 3-point based (though they do take a lot of them), and they don't necessarily rely on passing and assists for their offense. Lots of driving and close to mid-range shots.
Their bench does not provide a ton of support, and while they're not very experienced, what they are is tall. Very tall. They are #24 in Effective Height (which basically just looks at the average height of the tallest guys) and #2 in Overall Height (which measures everybody's average).

This is a long, lean team that relies on its talent and athleticism to win games. Of their three losses, two (Xavier, Georgetown) came against teams who maybe weren't as athletic as them, but were more physical, and the other came against a unique, athletic Syracuse team. I'd say Mizzou is more like Syracuse than XU/Georgetown, but really none of them are tremendously comparable.

Memphis vs Real Opponents (i.e. major conference teams or NCAA tourney teams)

	Memphis	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.76	1.59
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.03	0.93
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.17	1.17
2-PT FG%	47.3%	43.6%
3-PT FG%	29.8%	29.5%
FT%	65.8%	67.7%
True Shooting %	50.4%	49.5%

	Memphis	Opp
Assists/Gm	15.0	9.8
Steals/Gm	8.8	6.0
Turnovers/Gm	14.6	14.4
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.63	1.10

	Memphis	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	13.9	13.0
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	15.3	10.6
Difference	+1.4	-2.4

Memphis' "real" regular season opponents: Chattanooga, Seton Hall, Xavier, Georgetown, Syracuse, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Gonzaga, and of course CS-Northridge and Maryland. Memphis went 7-3 against these ten teams.
Disclaimer: a lot of these games were played earlier in the season, when Tyreke Evans was still learning the ropes. He's a better player now, but that doesn't render these numbers entirely void.
Suddenly Points Per Shot and True Shooting % are almost equal, and Memphis relies on BCI (a bit) and rebounding (a lot) to win games.
14.6 turnovers per game. That's a lot.

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Robert Dozier	13.15	0.42	11.2 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.6 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 1.7 TOPG
Tyreke Evans	12.44	0.44	14.7 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 3.9 APG, 2.0 SPG, 4.0 TOPG
Shawn Taggart	12.10	0.44	10.0 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 1.3 BPG, 1.1 TOPG
Antonio Anderson	9.22	0.25	7.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 5.3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 3.0 TOPG
Doneal Mack	7.42	0.31	9.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1.4 APG
Roburt Sallie	7.27	0.50	8.0 PPG, 1.6 RPG
Wesley Weatherspoon	3.04	0.19	4.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.6 TOPG
Pierre Henderson-Niles	2.92	0.25	2.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.0 TOPG
Willie Kemp	2.17	0.18	3.4 PPG
Matt Simpkins	0.39	0.08	0.5 PPG
Preston Laird	0.20	0.39	1 minute
Chance McGrady	-0.52	-0.52	2 minutes

Again, Evans is a better player now than he was against early teams like Chattanooga and Xavier, but the numbers aren't that different. He's still the same well-rounded, athletic, talented player who turns the ball over a bit too much.
Antonio Anderson could be the key player to watch. He's had decent shooting games and horrible ones. Decent assist-to-turnover games and horrible ones. He handles the ball as much as anybody on the team, and he could make or break Memphis.

And no, he's not this guy:

That's Anthony Anderson.
Evans is the main name for Memphis now, but really the trifecta of Evans, Dozier and Taggart are equally important from a per-minute standpoint. Slowing down any one of them could do good things for Mizzou.

Memphis vs NCAA Tournament

	Memphis	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.13	1.75
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.24	1.02
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.52	1.21
2-PT FG%	58.9%	45.1%
3-PT FG%	44.7%	37.5%
FT%	67.4%	66.7%
True Shooting %	64.9%	52.6%

	Memphis	Opp
Assists	40	19
Steals	20	16
Turnovers	27	24
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.22	1.46

	Memphis	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	20	25
Offensive Rebounds	19	21
Difference	-1	-4

Considering neither CS-Northridge nor Maryland are gigantic teams, the rebounding numbers there are a little surprising (and encouraging). They've been strong on the defensive glass, but they haven't been getting just a ton of second-chance opportunities.
Thanks to Mr. Sallie, the 3-pointers have fallen for Memphis thus far. Sallie was 13-for-19 from 3-point range over the weekend--the rest of the team was just 8-for-28. Again, we'll see if this is a permanent upward trend for the sophomore (and former Husker), or just a couple of hot games, soon to return to the norm.
Again, the BCI is high because of an impressive 40 assists and 20 steals--the turnovers number is still too high for a team about to play Missouri.
Meanwhile, they've strangely only forced 24 turnovers of their own. Again, Northridge did a lot more against Memphis than anybody thought they were capable of doing, and it showed that there might be room for JT Tiller and Zaire Taylor to drive, and it might be possible to get Evans, Doneal Mack, and Wesley Weatherspoon into foul trouble.

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Roburt Sallie	24.66	0.84	24.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.5 SPG
Tyreke Evans	14.53	0.50	17.0 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 5.0 APG, 2.5 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 4.5 TOPG
Robert Dozier	13.35	0.39	11.5 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 1.0 APG, 1.5 SPG
Shawn Taggart	13.12	0.49	11.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 1.0 SPG
Antonio Anderson	10.75	0.29	7.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 10.0 APG, 2.0 SPG, 4.0 TOPG
Willie Kemp	4.24	0.61	3.5 PPG, 1.0 APG
Pierre Henderson-Niles	2.71	0.32	1.0 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG
Doneal Mack	1.98	0.11	9.0 PPG, 1.0 RPG, 2.0 TOPG
Preston Laird	0.34	0.34	1 minute
Chance McGrady	0.00	0.00	1 minute
Wesley Witherspoon	-0.28	-0.03	0.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG

Dozier and Anderson have been relatively unimpressive in the tourney thus far, while Evans and Taggart have posted averages quite comparable to their regular season numbers.
The difference, of course, has been Sallie's explosion. Everything Kimmie English has been for Mizzou, Sallie has meant even more for Memphis (English has actually had much higher per-minute averages, but Sallie has played many more minutes). They needed almost every one of his 35 points to beat Northridge.

Keys to the Game

No surprises here.

The 3-pointer. Will Roburt Sallie go off again? What about Kim English? Tyreke Evans or Antonio Anderson? Will Matt Lawrence bring his long-range shot with him to Glendale after leaving it at home during the trip to Boise? Neither team is great at the long-ball, and both teams are good at preventing opponents' long-ball success. Regardless, we know that both teams will still take a lot of 3's, and the team with the 3-pt % closest to 50% will have a significant advantage here.
The offensive rebound. When you look at Memphis' losses and near-losses, two numbers stick out in regard to trying to figure out why Memphis lost/almost lost. The first one is rebounding. Xavier outrebounded them, 44-40. In a 1-point Memphis win, Tulsa outrebounded the Tigers, 43-25. Neither Memphis nor Missouri is full of great natural shooting ability, and there will likely be a lot of missed shots in this game (and therefore lots of rebounding opportunities). Mizzou has to do a better job of grabbing the boards than they have in either of the first two NCAA Tourney games. Leo Lyons had 4 rebounds against Marquette--inexcuseable. He needs at least 7-8 on Thursday.
The turnover. The other trend from Memphis' worse games is turnovers. Memphis had 20 turnovers against both Syracuse and Georgetown. They can get confused by sturdy defenses, and I expect Mike Anderson to vary the defensive looks he throws at Memphis from possession to possession.

Meanwhile, Memphis is also very good at forcing turnovers. Mizzou has taken care of the ball tremendously well in the tourney, and they must continue to do so. They need to force at least 18-20 Memphis turnovers while keeping their own numbers under about 12-14. Winning the turnover battle means getting to take more shots, and Mizzou's going to need every opportunity it can get.

Prediction

When it's time to make a prediction, I usually do a little math. I try to figure out Mizzou's and its opponent's likely points per possession, and then try to figure out the most likely pace. Points Per Possession x Possessions = Points, right?

Looking at how both teams have performed over the year as a whole and most recently, this should be a damn close game. Mizzou will most likely average somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.04-1.08 points per possession (we'll say 1.06), while Memphis will be anywhere between 1.05 and 1.10 (we'll say 1.08). Both teams are streaky, and either could end up in the 1.15 or 0.95 neighborhood, but those are the safest bets. Memphis games are usually played at about a 66-possession pace, while Missouri is closer to 70-72. We'll say there are 69 possessions in this game...which makes for a prediction of Memphis 75, Missouri 73. I'll say this, though: the way this team has played in clutch situations (think Texas, Kansas, Marquette), in a one- or two-possession game, I really like our chances. We'll stick with a reverse jinx attempt, though, and say 75-73 Memphis.

Selection Eve Review/Selection Sunday Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 15 Mar 2009 15:31:13 -0000

Today is the day we've all been waiting for. At 6 Eastern tonight, we'll find out who's in and who's bubble has been burst. We'll also find out who's staying close to home and who has to travel across a time zone or three.

After yesterday's action, 12 teams know for sure that they're in.

America East - Binghamton is in for the very first time. Tony Kornheiser's (obligatory TK reference) alma mater defeated Maryland-Baltimore County by 10. Reggie Fuller had 19 for the Bearcats, going 7 for 7 from the field.

Conference USA - Memphis staked their claim to a number one seed by crushing Tulsa, 64-39. Gus Johnson's talent went to considerable waste, as he was stuck calling a game where the Golden Hurricane managed the lowest-point total in Memphis and the 11 Dwarves conference tournament history. Robert Dozier had 18 points and 14 boards, while Tyreke Evans scored 18.

Pacific 10 - USC ended someone's hopes by defeating Arizona State 66-63, in the first of two thrilling games played in Southern California last night. Both teams were hot from the field (USC at 52%, ASU at 53%), but the Trojans foul shooting is, oddly enough, what gave them the win. Sure Daniel Hackett hitting two in the dying moments clinched the win, but the Trojans got 21 FTAs on the night, making 13. The Sun Devils only went 2-4 from the charity stripe.

Big 12 - Missouri ended Baylor's run through the tournament and the Bears' Dance hopes, 73-60. Baylor kept it close for the first half and some of the second, but the Tigers went up 11 with 15:39 left and never looked back.

Atlantic 10 - Temple defeated Duquesne, 69-64, to win the Atlantic 10 for the second year in a row.

Mountain West - San Diego State isn't quite as safe as I thought yesterday, not after a dismal Mountain West final, where they lost to Utah, 52-50. Neither team looked particularly good, with the Aztecs shooting 36 percent from the floor and the Utes only making 33 percent of their attempts. SDSU now needs to cheer for a Tennessee win in the SEC championship today to have any hope.

MEAC - Morgan State is going dancing for the first time. The Bears' 83-69 win over Norfolk State completes the long road to redemption for coach Todd Bozeman who left Cal in disgrace after a recruiting scandal and had an eight-year show cause penalty imposed on him. It seems he's doing things the right way in Baltimore and his squad, led by all-MEAC guard Reggie Holmes, already owns a win over Maryland.

MAC - Remember back in December when Buffalo nearly knocked off UConn? Well, Championship Week does a great job of making great memories like that completely irrelevant. The Bulls fwere handled by Akron, 65-53. That means the Zips are in the tournament for the first time since 1986, when Bob Huggins was their coach. Keith Dambrot's team was left out in 2007 despite a 26-7 record, not even making the NIT!

Big East - Syracuse completely ran out of gas in the second half and fell to Louisville, 76-66. In my mind, the Cardinals, as double Big East champions, should be the overall number one seed at 6 EDT tonight.

SWAC - Top seed Alabama State knocked off second seed Jackson State, 65-58. The Hornets are probably destined to play in Dayton on Tuesday night. That might be your only chance to see the player with the greatest name in basketball today, Chief Kickingstallionsims.

WAC - Utah State banished any worries about their status by defeating host Nevada 72-62 to claim the auto bid. The Aggies jumped out to a 21-4 lead, but the Wolf Pack chipped away and cut it to four early in the second. USU let them get no closer.

Big West - Cal State-Northridge, a team that's encountered turmoil and tragedy so far this year. has overcome all of that to make it in. They also finally got past a Pacific team who swept them in the regular season, even though they needed overtime to do it. Rodrigue Mels had 23 points to lead the Matadors to the win.

Four teams punch their tickets today.

Southland Final (ESPN, 1 EDT) - Top seed Stephen F. Austin meets six seed Texas-San Antonio for the crown. The Roadrunners would likely replace Chattanooga as Alabama State's opponents in Dayton Tuesday night. The Lumberjacks, who have a shot at a better seed, defeated UTSA on the road in the teams' only meeting last weekend.

ACC Final (ESPN2 outside of ACC country and Raycom inside it, 1 EDT) - Florida State ended North Carolina's hopes of a third-straight ACC crown, 73-70. Now Toney Douglas and the Seminoles will try to end Duke's slender hopes of a #1 seed. The Blue Devils put Maryland's status right back into doubt with a 67-61 win in their semifinal.

SEC Final (CBS, 1 EDT) - As I've mentioned, Tennessee is the best friend of the resume challenged today. The Vols already knocked off Auburn to basically end their hopes. Now, they face Mississippi State, who is looking to steal a bid after they eliminated LSU.

Big Ten Final (CBS, 3:30 EDT) - Ohio State slammed the door on Michigan State's one seed chances yesterday and put further space between themselves and the bubble in the process. The Buckeyes next get Purdue who knocked off Illinois, 66-56. The Boilermakers need to win this one to claim a top-four seed.

I'll be working on my final bracket after the 1 p.m. games, as the Big Ten game won't affect selection. Expect my final update sometime after 5 Eastern. However, I will announce my pick for the Opening Round game at the conclusion of the Southland final.

Projecting the Hoops Season: Top 25

Zach B — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 20:35:15 -0000

swBefore putting this up I should link my original top 25 which, after a few games, has already changed. UCLA looked bad last night against a pretty darn good Miami of Ohio team. The West is down in basketball this year, well except of course for my beloved Zags. The Big East is once again the dominant conference from top to bottom...but as usual, the ACC has some of the top teams, including the odds on favorite to win it all.

1. North Carolina...Hansbrough is hurt but should be back for the bulk of the season. They are absolutely loaded this year.

2. Louisville...Rick Pitino may finally have his championship year at Louisville. Blue-chip recruit Samardo Samuels joins an already talented Cardinals roster.

3. Connecticut...Barely behind Louisville. Thabeet is sure talking a lot, hopefully he can back it up on the court. I hope Harangody beats him up though.

4. Michigan State...This is my sleeper team. I love Kalin Lucas, there are not many point guards better than him this season. Delvon Roe is another freshman to watch.

5. Pittsburgh...DeJuan Blair is going to be a manchild in the middle and Sam Young has developed into one of the best forwards in the nation.

6. Oklahoma...This one is for Woodrow. Willie Warren is going to be the most productive freshman this season. Blake Griffin will also be the number 1 selection in the upcoming NBA draft.

7. Notre Dame...Still not completely sure about this one. I'm not sure if they have enough talent to put together another great season in such a tough Big East.

8. Gonzaga...This is with as little bias as possible. The Zags are the best team on the West Coast. Austin Daye and Josh Heytvelt are the one's to watch along with Jeremy Pargo.

9. Texas...Damion James does everything for the Longhorns and is one of the most complete players in the nation. Can they replace DJ Augustin?

10. Duke...I usually think the Blue Devils are overrated but I like this team. They have an excellent back court. Kyle Singler is Mr. Fundamental.

See the rest of the Top 25 after the jump...

11. UCLA...I'm just not impressed by their interior play. They have talent but not having Kevin Love is going to hurt. If they had him, they could be challenging Carolina for the top spot.

12. Memphis...The Tigers lost a lot with the departures of Dorsey, Rose, and CDR but they reloading quite nicely. Taggart and Dozier will have to lead this team that will rely on plenty of youngsters.

13. Tennessee...JP Prince's injury worries me but he should be back healthy for the bulk of the season. Bruce Pearl signed one of the best players in the country in Scotty Hopson and he'll be expected to contribute immediately.

14. Purdue...Robbie Hummel is a top player in college basketball this season. Only a sophomore, Hummel will be counted on to make this team go. If they can stay more consistent this year, they could be great.

15. Georgetown...I'm hoping and praying that the Hoyas and Zags match up this season. Dajuan Summers is bound to break out this year. He's got all the tools to be a top tier player this year.

16. Arizona State...James Harden could wind up being the player of the year in college basketball. The Sun Devils should challenge UCLA in the PAC-10.

17. Florida...Florida should be vastly improved from last year. Jai Lucas has transferred but Nick Calathes could make an All-American team by season's end. The Gators are on their way back to the top of the college basketball world.

18. Villanova...This team is nowhere near the Foye, Lowry, and Allen Ray team but they have the potential to be a very good team by the end of the year.

19. Wake Forest...Three five-star freshman will be taking the floor for Wake and they are all taller than 6'9'', I wish Gonzaga could borrow one. Get to know Al-Faroug Aminu.

20. Marquette...The Eagles have been a consistently solid squad for many years and this year will be no different. Jerel McNeal is one of the best guards in the nation and Dominic James is always reliable.

21. USC...If Davon Jefferson was still in the fold, this would be an elite team but now they are forced to rely on freshman DeMar Derozan.

22. Miami...It feels odd to me to put Miami in a top 25 for basketball but they should be a force this season in the ACC.

23. UNLV...I think this is going to be a very special season for Lon Kruger's team. Wink Adams is one of the top guards in the nation and redshirt freshman Beas Hamga should be a man in the middle.

24. Xavier...There will be plenty of new faces in the max for the Musketeers but they have some solid returning players like B.J. Raymond.

25. Saint Mary's...The Gaels deserve a spot in the Top 25 as they have one of the best combos in the nation with Diamon Simpson and Patty Mills. Mills should become a household name by seasons end.

Who Just Missed: I'm not ready to put Kansas in the Top 25 yet. They lost so much from last year's championship team that they'll have to prove it first. The fact that San Diego only got one vote combined in the two major polls is stunning. I have them pegged as a top 30-35 team to start the year. The loss of Jason Richards is going to hurt Davidson a lot more than people like to think. Stephen Curry is a much better player when he can move without the ball. As the point man, he's not going to have that luxury very much. I struggled leaving Baylor out of the top 25. Curtis Jerrells is about as good as it gets in the Big 12. Syracuse has a whole ton of talent but I'm not convinced that Jim Boeheim is going to be able to harness it all.