SB Nation - Carlton Fay

BtB 2009-10 Missouri Valley Conference Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 17:00:26 -0000

Northern Iowa was the only Valley team to make the NCAAs last season. Drake, in their only season under Keno Davis, was the only MVC squad to make it in 2008. For those of you (like me) who keep track of this kind of stuff, that's not a good trend for a conference that's used to multiple bids.

"Wait!," you say. "The Valley is a one-bid league. 2006 was an aberration."

If you look at the numbers, they tell a very different story.

In the first decade of the new century, the only two seasons when the MVC received a single bid were the last two. Sure, in some cases, one of the two bids was a bid thief who deprived a bubble team of a slot, most notably UNI's entry as 14 seed in 2004. But in most years, the Valley's entrants repaid the Committee's faith in the conference, with MVC teams recording a single win in 2001 and 2005 and multiple victories in 2002, 2006, and 2007.

The Valley even started building a reputation in the final years of the 20th century. The MVC earned multiple bids in '94, '95, '96, and '99, finishing with a .500 mark in all of those years, except for '96. Former league member Tulsa represented the conference in the Regional Semis in '94 and '95, while Missouri State reached that stage in 1999.

So, over the past 16 tournaments ('94-'09), the MVC has been a multi-bid league 12 times. The challenge for this year is to make it 13 out of 17. To help reach this goal, the conference has even entered into a challenge series with the Mountain West this year in a bid to schedule some exciting matchups and generate more attention for both leagues. (Go here to see the matchups.)

More on the teams who will attempt to make the Valley a multi-bid league again after the jump.

Let's begin with a look at the final 2008-09 Missouri Valley standings.

Missouri Valley Conference Standings

(updated 3.31.2009 at 10:55 PM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Creighton Bluejays	14	4	27	8
Northern Iowa Panthers	14	4	23	11
Illinois St. Redbirds	11	7	24	10
Bradley Braves	10	8	21	15
Evansville Aces	8	10	17	14
Wichita St. Shockers	8	10	17	17
Southern Illinois Salukis	8	10	13	18
Drake Bulldogs	7	11	17	16
Indiana St. Sycamores	7	11	11	21
Missouri St Bears	3	15	11	20

Now here are my picks for the 2009-10 season, presented in reverse order.

Evansville (last NCAA: 1999) The Aces climbed their way up to the middle of the Valley pack after spending most of the decade in the bottom three, but it looks very much like Marty Simmons' team will sink right back down to the bottom due to some significant losses. Most of the Aces offense has moved on, double-figure scorers Shy Ely, Jason Holsinger, and Nate Garner graduated, and freshman point guard Kaylon Williams, a truly talented passer, transferred. So, Simmons' two newcomers with experience, Valparaiso transfer Bryan Bouchie, a 6-10 center, and 6-0 point guard Monie Hudson, a late JC signee, will have to contribute immediately for UE to avoid the basement. The Purple Aces don't face a BCS school this year, but they host Butler and visit Western Kentucky.

Drake (last NCAA: 2008) The Bulldogs went from winning 15 regular season MVC games, sweeping the league's regular season and tournament crowns, and losing to WKU on a buzzer beater in the first round of the NCAAs in '08 to losing 11 league games, falling out of the MVC tournament in the first round, and losing to Idaho in the dying moments of the CollegeInsider tournament in '09. Second-leading scorer and leading rebounder Jonathan Cox (12.5 ppg, 8.5 rpg) is gone, but the backcourt is solid with seniors Josh Young (15.4 ppg) and Craig Stanley (7.9 ppg, 3.8 apg) back. They'll be supported by two intriguing newcomers, Arkansas State transfer Ryan Wedel (15.1 ppg in '07-08) and point guard Frank Wiseler, a point guard from (wait for it) Luxembourg. The frontcourt is a major area of concern for Mark Phelps, however. He'll need more out of 6-6 Adam Templeton (5.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg) and will have to plug in 6-8 freshman Ben Simons immediately. Besides hosting Iowa State and traveling to Iowa, the Bulldogs will participate in the Glenn Wilkes Classic. They'll host IUPUI and take on Akron, UCF, and Georgia Statein Daytona Beach.

Missouri State (last NCAA: 1999) The Bears opened up their new arena, the JQH Center, with a new coach at the helm, Quonzo Martin. The highlight of the year was an upset of Arkansas to christen the new building, but the rest of the season was disappointing, as Missouri State only managed to win 10 more times. Forwards Chris Cooks and Wayne Knapp, who combined to average over 21 points and 10 boards a game are gone, but the Bears have a lot of hope thanks to a good mix of newcomers and returnees. The National JC Player of the Year, Nafis Ricks, a 6-2 guard who averaged over 17 points a game and nearly 6 assists per contest is now on board, as are Eastern Kentucky transfer Adam Leonard, a 3-point sharpshooter; Jermaine Mallett, another JC transfer who can score; and 7-foot center Caleb Patterson, a transfer from Colorado. They'll join key returnees F Kyle Weems (10.2 ppg, 4.9 rpg), G Justin Fuehrmeyer (4.7 ppg, 2.8 apg), C Will Creekmore (7.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg), G Cardell McFarland (6.9 ppg), and F Ryan Jehle (4.9 ppg). If Martin can get some more production out of his returnees (especially on the offensive end, where they struggled) and integrate the newcomers quickly, the Bears could really surprise. Missouri State welcomes Auburn to the JQH Center this year.

Indiana State (last NCAA: 2001) Kevin McKenna's side 2008-09 campaign started badly, as they dropped 19 of their first 23. But there were two glimmers of hope during that span, a double OT win over UNI in Cedar Falls and a home win over Illinois State. The Sycamores ended up winning 7 of their last 9, completing the sweep over the Redbirds, sweeping Missouri State, and winning a game in the Valley tournament. Indiana State may be able to carry that momentum into this year, as four starters return, led by the backcourt of Rashad Reed (11 ppg) and Harry Marshall (13.6 pgg). They'll get some help from the addition of Louisiana Tech transfer Dwayne Lathan. McKenna has some issues in the frontcourt as 6-8 Jay Tunnell (12.5 ppg, 6.2 rpg) has graduated. 6-5 swingman Carl Richard showed he can be a force, but ISU may need 6-10 Brant Leitnaker, 6-8 Isiah Martin, or 6-11 Josh Crawford to step up inside. The Sycamores are in the NIT Season Tip-Off where they're in a challenging regional. They face hosts LSU first, then either Milwaukee or WKU.

Wichita State (last NCAA: 2006) The Shockers finished at .500 overall last year, 8-10 in the MVC, but it could have been a much better season. They were doomed by a 0-6 start to the Valley season, granted most of those losses weren't close. Still, a two-point home loss to Bradley and a five-point away loss to Drake are games Gregg Marshall's team wishes they had back (as is the 13-point loss at Missouri State). It wasn't a good start for a team that actually knocked off Siena at the Old Spice Classic, one of the most thrilling games I saw all year. However, the Shockers recovered enough to win a game in the Valley tournament (over Missouri State) and in the CBI (over Buffalo). Marshall brings back most of his key performers from last season, including his starting backcourt of Clevin Hannah (11.2 ppg, 4.3 apg) and Toure' Murry (11 ppg, 3.8 rpg). The frontcourt is a bit thin on experience, but the presence 6-7 J.T. Durley (8.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg) provides a solid foundation. The Shockers' scorelines show their main issue, plenty of defense, but not enough scoring. If Marshall can get more points, they'll contend for a tourney bid. WSU will open their season in the CBE Classic. They'll face Pitt in Kansas City, then either Iowa or Texas.

Bradley (last NCAA: 2006) Typical of teams who finish their league seasons at 10-8, Jim Les' Braves lacked consistency last season. They only managed two sweeps, Indiana State and Wichita State, while they were swept by Creighton and Northern Iowa. Still, 10 league and 18 overall wins got the Braves into the CollegeInsider tournament, where they fell to Old Dominion in the final. Now, Bradley must try to improve on that showing without last year's leading scorer Theron Wilson (14 ppg, 7.3 rpg). His departure leaves the frontcourt thin (which is a common thread in the Valley this year). That means 6-6 Taylor Brown and 6-9 Will Eglof, who's coming off an ACL injury, will have to be more productive this season. The backcourt, led by Sam Maniscalco (12.6 ppg, 3.1 apg) and Andrew Warren (13.2 ppg) , who's returning from a stress fracture in his foot, is in much better shape. The Braves will be challenged by a schedule that features a trip to BYU for the MVC/MWC Challenge, and games against Oklahoma State and either Illinois or Utah at the Thanksgiving Las Vegas Invitational.

Southern Illinois (last NCAA: 2007) Last year, the Salukis not only missed the NCAAs for the second year in a row, after a streak of six straight tournaments from 2002-07 (which included two Sweet 16 appearances), they suffered their first losing season since 1998. They did win 8 Valley games, but much like in the case of Wichita State, they could've done so much more, particularly in a span from January 31 to February 21 when they dropped 5 of 6 league contests and a BracketBuster against Illinois-Chicago. Chris Lowery's side will have to try to rebound without two key starters forward Tony Boyle (9.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg) and defensively-minded guard Bryan Mullins. The Salukis get their two leading scorers, sophomore guard Kevin Dillard (12.2 ppg) and 6-8 F Carlton Fay (10.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg), back, and they'll be joined by some interesting newcomers, led by Iowa transfer Tony Freeman, who will help Dillard out in the backcourt, and 6-9 C Gene Teague. SIU will need his help to get a boost in their inside scoring to rise up the standings. SIU travels to Las Vegas twice, once to face UNLV, and again to face San Diego and San Francisco in a neutral site event.

Creighton (last NCAA: 2007) I actually had the Blue Jays as my "Last Team In" last season, figuring the Committee would pull an "Air Force in '06" and surprise us all with the last 12 or an at-large 13. If I would've stuck with my own numbers, I would've put Arizona in and been perfect on at-larges for two years in a row. C'est la vie. This year, the Jays look like a team who could be on the bubble again. Dana Altman has two significant holes to fill, as not only is point guard Josh Dotzler (3 ppg, 3.5 apg) gone, but Booker Woodfox (15.8 ppg, 47.6% from 3) is no longer there to make pressure shots for Creighton. Expect P'Allen Stinnett, who averaged 12.5 points per game last year, to have an even bigger impact this season, along with swingman Justin Carter (8.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg)--one of the better defenders on the team, sharpshooter Kaleb Korver (3.7 ppg), Cavel Witter (7.7 ppg), and Antoine Young (4.9 ppg). The frontcourt is a bit thin on experience, especially as backup center Kenton Walker transferred after last year. Starting C Kenny Lawson (8.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg) can be a force, while 6-6 JC transfer Wayne Runnels, 6-7 frosh Ethan Wragge, and 6-8 senior Chad Millard will need to provide substantial levels of support to take the scoring load off the perimeter players. The Jays travel to Disney World for the Old Spice Classic, where they open against Michigan, with Marquette or Xavier to follow in their second game. Creighton also visits Dayton and George Mason, in what should in an interesting non-BCS triangular series.

Illinois State (last NCAA: 1998) The Redbirds have been close to breaking down the Tournament doors the past two years, but their non-conference schedule has been criticized heavily during both seasons. Last year, Illinois State skidded at the end of the year, losing badly at Niagara in a BracketBuster, then dropping two heartbreakers to their main league rivals. They recovered to make the Valley final, where, despite Osiris Eldridge's best efforts, UNI again broke their hearts in OT. The Redbirds closed their season with a close loss at Kansas State in the NIT. While Tim Jankovich lost two starters, guards Emmanuel Holloway (10.3 ppg, 2.8 apg) and Champ Oguchi (15.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg), Eldridge (14 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.4 apg) is back and so is Lloyd Phillips (10.6 ppg, 3.6 apg), meaning the backcourt is still in good shape. 6-8 center Dinma Odiakosa, who averaged nearly 9 points and 8 boards a game last year, will be the key man in the frontcourt, and he'll get support from 6-6 Bobby Hill, who's coming off a knee injury, 6-7 JC transfer Tony Lewis, and 6-8 Blake Mishler, who transferred from East Tennessee State. Eldridge will hope to carry his team to the Dance, but he'll need a lot of help from the redesigned frontcourt to get there. The non-league schedule should again provide a lot of wins, as a home date with Central Michigan and back-to-back December road trips to Ohio and Utah are the biggest hurdles.

Northern Iowa (last NCAA: 2009) The Panthers hold the top spot as they return all five starters off a team that won both the MVC regular season and tournament crowns before falling to Purdue in a close, but ugly game in the first round of the NCAAs. Junior guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe (11.8 ppg, 3.1 apg) runs the offense, and he's helped out in the backcourt by sharpshooters Ali Farokhmanesh (9.6 ppg) and Johnny Moran (8.4 ppg). In a league where many teams are frontcourt-challenged, the combo of 6-9 Adam Koch (12.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 2 apg) and 7-foot center Jordan Egelseder (10.2 ppg, 6.4 rpg) is hard to get around. Koch's younger brother, Jake, who's also 6-9, should also see action this year after redshirting last season. UNI also finished last year first in the league in field goal percentage and second in field goal percentage defense, and they should remain a solid team all-around. The Panthers face DePaul in their first game at the Paradise Jam. If they win that, they'll probably face Tennessee in the semifinals. UNI also welcomes Iowa and Siena to Cedar Falls, while they travel to Iowa State.

The Panthers are my pick to win the Valley's auto bid this season, so they'll appear in my Final Preseason Bracket, which I'll release on Monday, November 9. Now, to wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-MVC team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-MVC Team

Player of the Year: Osiris Eldridge, 6-3 G/F, Sr. (Illinois State)

Remainder of the Team
Kwadzo Ahelegbe, 6-2 G, Jr. (Northern Iowa)
Jordan Egelseder, 7-0 C, Sr. (Northern Iowa)
Adam Koch, 6-9 F, Sr. (Northern Iowa)
P'Allen Stinnett, 6-3 G, Jr. (Creighton)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the MVC this season?

Bradley

89 votes

Creighton

12 votes

Drake

4 votes

Evansville

1 votes

Illinois State

8 votes

Indiana State

1 votes

Missouri State

1 votes

Northern Iowa

14 votes

Southern Illinois

29 votes

Wichita State

8 votes

167 votes | Poll has closed

Buckle Up

Nestor — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 12:00:07 -0000

Let me make something clear right off the bat re. this place for those want to do drive by trolling after tough losses (in either hoops or football).

BN is not talk radio.

BN is not a message board.

This is not a place where you get to just pop in after a Bruin loss and get your frustrations out of your system. If you are going to take knee-jerk, drive by shots against our coaches or our players, showing up randomly in a community you don’t normally participate in, then we suggest you pick up the phone or call in those dumbed down talk radio shows or find a message board that works for you. We don’t care if that impacts our site traffic

We are not going to let BN turn into a place where you can come by and confirm Steve Lavin and rest of traditional media blowhard’s talking points about “spoiled and unreasonable” UCLA basketball fans. Moving on to last night’s game.

Last night’s loss against a very well coached Michigan team is not a surprise. Those of us who follow our program on a day to day basis here on BN, knew the kind of challenge our guys were going to face against Beilein squad. I think Jaffa’s data points in the comment threads provided some key information putting this in perspective by going over Beiein/Howland matchup dating back to their Big East days:

Howland at Pitt, Beilein at West Virginia: 2-0 Howland (82-46 at Pitt and 80-61 at WVU). They were only at these places at the same time for one season (2002-2003) – Howland’s last at Pitt, with a top 10 team, and Beilein’s first at WVU. Not surprising he was able to get both wins, and both blowouts at that.

Howland at UCLA, Beilein at West Virginia: 2-0 Beilein (60-56 at Pauley in ‘05-’06 and 70-65 at WVU in ‘06-’07). The first featured a still-young UCLA, against an experienced WVU in Beilein’s 4th season. In the second we missed Collison as Westbrook struggled in his first start (4 pts on 1-11, 4 assts, 3 TO in 32 mins), in Beilein’s 5th year at WVU.

Howland at UCLA, Beilein at Michigan: 1-1 (69-54 UCLA at Mich, and this game). Last year’s game was our 12th of the season and Beilein’s 12th at Michigan. Tonight’s game was the third in their career for much of our team, playing for the first time against a very uncommon attack.

What I take from this: Howland’s wins come against teams very inexperienced in Beilein’s unorthodox system, not built to play his way. Beilein’s team wins when they’re the more experienced. I would say tonight’s game fits this pattern. It may only be his second year at Michigan, but his team is much less reliant on freshmen (4 combined for 48 mins for us, 2 combined for 30 for them) adjusting to the college game. Our seniors didn’t play well either, true, but as mentioned above, the mixing and molding of the entire team around those new players hasn’t happened quite yet, and needs to happen.

Let’s expand on the point re. mixing and molding of the entire ream, something rye also brought attention to in his must read post below.

I will go back to this post in which I laid out two of the top factors which I think are key to this edition of Bruins have a successful season this year. First, this is what I wrote re. DC’s “decision making”

Yet notwithstanding DC's greatness, I think there is some room for improvement for this great Bruin guard. I think if DC has an Achilles heel it is his decisiveness as the floor general while we are on offense. Let me see if I can explain this. From what I have seen from DC in last three years, it seems at times he needs to be a little more authorative around his decisions on whether to take the shot or pass it off to his team-mates. In his defense in his first three years at UCLA, in terms of scoring he had more prolific scorers in AA, JF and then KL (a once a generation freshman) to which he often gave up the ball to. However, at times it seemed like UCLA offense lagged a bit as DC was waiting around to make his final decisions. So, I think this year we might see a little less of that as DC will be one of the primary scorers in our offense. In that case, I think DC needs to be a just tick faster in making his decisions on whether to launch or drive for his shot rather than passing off to another team-mate. We need DC to be more aggressive in decision making and hopefully his unquestioned stature as the senior leader will make the process a little easier.

Well, sadly last night DC made my point. I think the key here is what jaffa and rye already alluded to above. This is a matter of our guys figuring out and getting comfortable in their roles and syncing up with each other. It’s also a matter of DC taking charge of this team by trusting his own strengths and instincts. We saw how last night at times he was trying to be too unselfish (botching scoring chances on fast break or passing up wide open shots). He needs to get into the mindset that he is the unquestioned floor general during crunch time and then take over accordingly.

If DC is having issues taking over, I don’t think it might be a bad idea for Howland to have JH run the point and move DC at 2 setting him up for wide open jumpers. It worked number of times last year when Howland had RW running the point, who was instinctively more aggressive and sure footed in making his decisions on whether or not to attack the rim himself or passing it off to the best available option.

Also, in the same post I wrote about DC’s decision making, I also noted the need for “consistency” from JS:

Now that JS is fully healthy there is a chance we can see JS from his freshman season, who foreshadowed the kind of Ben Ball we have been accustomed to courtesy of warriors such as LRMAM and RW last three seasons Interestingly CBH has dropped hint that we may see JS spend some time at the 4 (which caught JS by surprise). That might not be a bad deal because it could be a move to field a guard heavy lineup exerting even more tenacious defensive pressure. Remember Howland did the same thing in his second year playing DT at the 4.

Ultimately, I think if JS were to have a memorable last season at UCLA, it will have to be centered around his total commitment to all out defense, sheer tenacity and hustle, that will allow him to emerge as the replacement of LRMAM in this year's squad. If he brings that defensive tenacity and then let his offensive instincts take over within the scheme of Howland's offense, JS might break out with one of the more memorable final year, a Bruin senior has put together in some time. Given what the kid has been through you can bet we all are going to be rooting for him.

JS had an awful night. He didn’t play great defense and he was totally unfocused on offense. Except for his first strong drive to the hoop, frankly he looked like a missile without a guidance system rest of the game. It was a disappointing night for the senior who turned the ball over team-leading 6 times (DC was second with 4).

Again JS’s contribution to this team will have to start with defense and playing within the scheme of this offense. I also think, it makes sense for Howland to given ML more mins early in the season so that we have a credible option at 3 when we head into the Pac-10 season. One concern I have had with CBH (and ironically it’s the same one I have with Neuheisel and Chow who been stubborn in their commitment to giving Bell more time at TB over Coleman and other young backs) is that he is often too ferociously loyal to his upperclassmen. I thought RW deserved more than 9 mins per game in his first season. But hey … I don’t care if I don’t win this argument given what Howland has done in Westwood. Still, for the sake of discussion, I think Bruins will be better off this year if Howland loosens up the shackle on his talented freshmen.

I would love to see ML getting more time at the 3 and also DG and JM getting their mins early in the season. I haven’t seen anything in the papers this am, but I am assuming JM didn’t get any mins because he might still be working into game shape, and Howland might have thought he wasn’t ready for the 1-3-1 zone. Howland confirmed that assumption on Dohn's blog:

"It's a hard game for both of those freshman big guys (Drew Gordon being the other) to match up against them defensively because they're so out on the perimeter,'' Howland said. "(Morgan) is a center used to playing around the basket, so I think it would be very difficult for J'mison.''

Here are some other tidbits from last night’s game that stood out to me:

We only made 5 out 11 FTs. That will not get it done and will burn us again if we keep shooting that way. What stood out to me were the clunkers from JK, MR and JS. I understand if AA2 clunks from the charity stripes, but we can’t have guys like MR and JS looking out of sync from the FT line. It cost us the game last night.
ND looks much improved on defense. He is not looking lost out there anymore. However, he is still forcing the action a little bit by jacking up shots. He was forcing it and not taking them within the flow of the game. Again the improvement is encouraging, but he still needs to settle down on offense.
JK had a great start last night (like rest of the team). He was active around the boards accounting for 6 offensive rebounds (team leading 8 total rebounds). However, like rest of the team he didn’t have a strong finish and got somewhat lost during second half.
JH … wanted to save the best for last. I had to chuckle when Dukee V mentioned that he wasn’t a “one and done” type. He showed last night that right now he is the best athlete in our team. He was smooth. Forget the pretty jumpshots or the effortless gliding to the rack, my jaw was dropping the effort he was showing on the defensive side with couple of spectacular block shots. I will reiterate what I mentioned above … I’d love to see CBH let JH run the point and shift DC over to 2. I think we might see some of the spectacular results we saw when he was doing the same with RW.

Anyway, in closing I am not all that shook up over this loss unlike some of the irregulars who came by to post their knee jerk reactions giving the impression that sky is falling. Again, our request for those guys are simple. Dial up the talk shows.

As for Howland, here was his response to last night’s setback:

Standing in a crowded hallway, somewhere deep inside Madison Square Garden, Ben Howland hurried his players outside and back toward their hotel.

It was past midnight, the UCLA coach in no mood to wait around.

"Early practice," he said.

Don't be surprised if the fourth-ranked Bruins get some extra work this morning, maybe some quick tutoring, after their 55-52 upset loss to Michigan on Thursday night.

Bruins get back in action tonight against Southern Illinois, who got run out of the gym by bunch of Dukees, who always peak during football season (sending Vitale into a tizzy). I haven’t seen the Salukis much except for the few mins against Duke from last night. What stood out to me was that they seemed to have a pretty good inside game. They were hanging in there (down by 6 at the half time) until they imploded in the second. They will present a challenge for our front court through Carlton Fay, the sophomore forward who is leading the team in scoring (16.5) and rebounding (7.5). I will post some links to Saluki info during our game thread which will go up right before tipoff (2 pm PST).

So, in closing I am as worried about our team as I was following our thumping against Memphis in our last appearance at MSG. Our team has a long way to go. We are not a top-10 team right now. We are probably a top-15 team at best. If there is a silver lining, hopefully last night’s loss bring a heavy dose of perspective among those who have suddenly started paying attention to our basketball program following the Gonzaga magic. Right now based on our issues, I don’t see our team making the Final-4 or the Elite-8. I am fine with that. However, what I am excited about this season, is to watch this team grow and develop in what I am expecting to be the same roller coaster season we experienced in 2005-06. My suggestion for those who are in it for the long haul: show some patience and buckle up. For the rest who are panicking and reaching premature conclusions, don’t try to jump back on the bandwagon, when our warriors get it going.

GO BRUINS.