SB Nation - Jordan Wilkes

Introducing Plus-Minus to Cal Hoops

Avinash — Thu, 04 Jun 2009 10:00:17 -0000

"Plus-minus, the stat that made Shane Battier a New York Times sensation (and Kobe Bryant's biggest annoyance)."

Sports fans are pretty familiar with the metrics we use to judge our basketball players. Points, rebounds, assists have been around for decades, and I can't really imagine them going anywhere.

What people don't recognize is that some of these stats don't necessarily tell us that much about a player. Other than maybe points and shooting percentage, all the other stats have a significant degree of uncertainty to them. The definition of an assist has changed quite a bit from when we were kids (and the arbitrary method in which they are assigned leaves much to be desired).

Take a steal, for instance. Dwyane Wade just had a spectacular season where he recorded 100 blocks and 200 steals (the first time a guard has done that since MJ's peak). However, what it doesn't tell you is how many times Wade gambled for the steal, resulting in leaving his man open for the wide open 3 (we have other stats for that, but that's a different story for a different time), or how many blocks ended up going back to the opposing team, giving them another possession. It's similar in football; although an interception and a fumble arguably have greater impact on the game, it isn't necessarily a sign of great one-on-one defense or good tackling form. These are actions that are being measured, not the effort in between the lines.

Hence the need for new stats. One of the most prominent is the plus-minus (otherwise known as +/-), which will be the focus of this article.

+/- measures pure point differential. Let's say Kobe and the Lakers start off the game on a 27-17 run. He gets a +10 for this contribution. Let's say Kobe comes back and his team loses a net 3 points during his duration on the floor. He gets a -3. We keep on doing this for the rest of the game, measuring how well the team performs with Kobe on the floor, and then sum up all these figures at the end. That's the basic form of +/- you see on those Yahoo Sports box scores.

Let's examine Cal basketball's first Pac-10 game this season versus Arizona. The boxes represent who was playing and the score differential during that particular game. Final boxes have the basic +/- for each player.

Cal-Arizona +/- Statsheet
Boykin	Theo	Wilkes	Randle	Patrick.	D.J.	Jorge	Nikola	Amoke	Kamp	Score
-1	-1	-1	-1	-1						A 14-13
		-1	-1	-1		-1			-1	A 17-15
-2			-2	-2		-2			-2	A 19-15
0	0		0			0			0	A 23-19
	2		2	2				2	2	A 23-21
				5	5		5	5	5	C 28-25
		-1	-1	-1	-1				-1	C 30-28
		2	2	2		2			2	C 32-28
		0		0		0	0		0	C 34-30
		2	2	2		2			2	C 36-30
4	4	4	4	4						C 48-38
	-3	-3	-3	-3					-3	C 51-44
	-3					-3	-3	-3	-3	C 53-49
	2			2			2	2	2	C 57-51
	9		9	9				9	9	C 69-54
	-1					-1	-1	-1	-1	C 69-55
1	9	2	11	18	4	-3	3	14	11	ON +/-

The starting unit started off slow. This was not an isolated occurrence (and something we'll talk about in later posts), although they had a much better start in the second half. It was only when Cal unleashed our reserves (not a normal strength for us) that we broke away from the Wildcats.

Does the data match up with the individual performances? In the most prominent case, yes. Patrick Christopher ended up with the best metric overall, and probably had the best overall game of the night for the casual observer (TedfordIsGod did attest that he destroyed Chase Budinger).

However, he wasn't the biggest swing player. Omondi Amoke and Harper Kamp were involved in the two biggest spurts of the game and would end up having the highest +/-s off the bench. More interestingly, Christopherwas involved in those stretches as well! Turns out that's supported by eye-witness observation, as indicated by CBKWit's post back in January.

Harper Kamp received the ball in the high post, occupying the middle of the 3 baseline defenders. He then gave a bounce pass to a cutting wing (generally Patrick Christopher, who matched his uniform with 23 points) who found the basket unobstructed, with the post defender occupied at the top of the key and the baseline wing defender late to leave his perimeter responsibilities. Kamp had a career high 5 assists using this play, all in the second half.

So it does seem that not only did Kamp help out in this particular game, but he helped Christopher's game as well with his passes from the high post. These are the type of cool observations you can make with plus-minus.

Finally, for the stat geeks like me, I did a few further calculations to factor in how much playing time factored into the +/-, by seeing how much the team was impacted when the player was NOT on the floor. I know some NBA statisticians use these types of formulas, although far more refined.

Here are the simplified formulas

ON +/- = That last row of the first table.

OFF +/- = Margin of victory - ON +/-

ON % = Minutes played/Minutes in the game

OFF% = 1 - ON %

Adjusted ON +/- = (ON +/-) * (ON%)

Adjusted OFF +/- = (OFF +/-) * (OFF%)

Net Adjusted +/-, or Net= (Adjusted ON plus minus) - (Adjusted OFF plus minus)

Bold indicates inconclusive results; not enough PT to figure out their value to the game (generally you have to play more than 30% of the given minutes.

Cal-Arizona Adjusted +/-
	ON +/-	ON %	OFF +/-	OFF %	Adj ON +/-	Adj OFF +/-	Net	Min
Boykin	1	0.4	13	0.6	0.4	7.8	-7.4	16
Theo	9	0.73	5	0.28	6.53	1.38	5.15	29
Wilkes	2	0.58	12	0.43	1.15	5.1	-3.95	23
Randle	11	0.8	3	0.2	8.8	0.6	8.2	32
Patrick	18	0.85	-4	0.15	15.3	-0.6	15.9	34
DJ	4	0.13	10	0.88	0.5	8.75	-8.25	5
Jorge	-3	0.3	17	0.7	-0.9	11.9	-7.2	12
Nikola	3	0.2	11	0.8	0.6	8.8	-1.8	8
Amoke	14	0.35	0	0.65	4.9	0	10.1	14
Kamp	11	0.65	3	0.35	7.15	1.05	8.9	26

You'll see that Jordan Wilkes had a pretty weak adjusted +/- for an eleven point victory (also not an isolated occurence), but did see plenty of minutes. Interestingly, the team didn't do much with him on the floor, but seemed to thrive with him off of it. Monty wasn't quite as leninent with Boykin (16 minutes to Wilkes's 29), and it made his adjusted +/- look worse as California performed better against Arizona with him off the floor in long stretches.

So that's a basic run down of what the plus minus is all about. In future posts on this topic, I'll be tackling certain things that stood out from these stats, particular games that really stood out, strengths and weaknesses of plus minus, etc. Feel free to discuss your thoughts on all this fancy data and the plus minus in the comments.

NOTE: If any of our commenters here are really good at data/Excel stuff like the tables above (or, even better, data visualization), drop a line at bearsnecessities at gmail! I have a few more parts in this series and could really use your help to spruce up this dry dissertation.

Poll

What do you think about the +/- stat?

Highly insightful.

24 votes

Interesting, not sure about its use.

23 votes

Fun to look at, lots of flaws though.

19 votes

Total waste.

10 votes

76 votes | Poll has closed

Cal Coaches Tour 2009 - Pleasant Hill Report Part II

TwistNHook — Thu, 21 May 2009 11:30:10 -0000

ragnarok: When we last left you, Coach Jeff Tedford had given a short talk on the state of the Cal Football program. Nothing earth-shattering, but still some interesting tidbits here and there, and those in attendance would still get a chance to pry a few more bits loose during the Q+A session, still to come.

TwistNHook: But first, Coach Mike Montgomery. He is a straight shooter and LOVES to joke around. He kinda made fun of Coach McKeever. She had made the National Championship out to be this sort of unexpected, humble experience. Like "Hey, y'know, let's just go and swim and see what happens and hey, woah, we won a national championship, that was cool. Go Bears!" Coach Montgomery was all "Hey, let's have some fun and hey maybe we could finish 64th. Y'know if we lose this first one here." Funny stuff.

One interesting point was when Monty compared Randle to Brevin Knight and said that a lot of people had been saying "Whats wrong with Randle? How are you going to fix Randle?" when he got here last year. He said he wanted to give Jerome Randle the chance to be himself out there. Not have a quick hook that might ruin the "Randle-ness." But still let him know that he (Montgomery) knew when Randle was making mistakes, so that they were on the same page. Whatever Monty did, it worked. Randle improved a thousand-fold and was a much different player. He spoke about how Randle had to fight for all his opportunities and had a real toughness.

Monty said he knew Wilkes was leaving before the start of the year, which is why he gave out a scholarship he didn't have at the time.

ragnarok: Indeed, Monty also seemed really pleased that Jordan was finally able to get out there and have a good final year. Not a great year, but he did some nice things, and was able to graduate feeling good about his basketball career, which was apparently something that was in doubt before this past year.

Finding a real presence inside is still the big question with this team. Monty was surprisingly candid, even for him, about the two new bigs coming in: "They're not great."

TwistNHook: HERESY AGAINST BAK BAK!!!!!! PRAISE BE TO BAK BAK!!

ragnarok: Hold up, hold up! He also said they had a lot of room to grow, but could do some nice things, and while they may not push for starter's minutes right away, they will definitely help fill space in the middle, which should hopefully help free up the shooters outside. Still, he did say that if we're going to have a real presence in the middle next season, it's probably going to because Harper Kamp is healthy; he's the key guy for us.

TwistNHook: He said that there was some information to give about health updates. Robertson had surgery on his hip, but his other hip. Kamp has something called a "lateral release" which sounds like something from Cirque du Soleil. And Jorge had meniscus taken out. All surgeries were successful, so that's good.

Monty had some interesting comments about spring practices. He said that there were some kids who didn't play much during the course of the year. They were not happy about it. They had been told a LOT of things during their recruitment about how great they were, and now that they're on campus, it's taken a while for reality to set in. Of course, he's talking about Braun there. He said that these players, who he never named, didn't know what hard work was. But now they seem to get it. So, I'm not sure who, in specific, he is talking about, but you can read between the lines here. Coach Montgomery must REALLY hate Max Zhang. ;)!!!

He then proceeded to use a "Not" joke in a non-ironic sense and get a REALLY solid laugh. I can only assume, because the audience was like 80% old people. Seriously, it was either old people or their kids. The number of 20-somethings was minimal. Not sure what that means.

He had a few funny stories. One was about a player of his who wanted to be an engineer. They took him to the engineering school and the people there were so confused. They'd never had a b-ball player want to be an engineer. That's Berkeley for ya!

He also talked about how they had a recruit on campus. This recruit's parents had had concerns about Berkeley being "too" liberal. So, they had tried to keep this guy from seeing too much insanity. So, of course a HUGE protest meanders right by them. And then some random dude starts screaming about seeing King Kong. It was pretty funny stuff.

He had a funny bit about getting a new practice site. They had looked at a place, but there was a tree there. So, they were moving on. Big laughs. So ya, Monty's a funny guy.

Then it was time for the Q+A:

To be honest, my brain hurt from writing so much and pretending to know what I was talking about. So, I wanted to take a break and go sit down.

HydroTech: Well, then, maybe you can take a break and go sit down right now! I got the information from Tedford from the Q+A.

Regarding a college football playoff system, Tedford said he would be for one if someone could think of a good one. But other than that, he said the BCS was working fine. He suggested if there was a playoff that 8 teams would be the ideal number. Finally, he added nobody is going to be happy with any system.

Tedford described Best as "special."

Tedford said Alex Lagemann was one of the top 5th or 6th guy at WR.

In regards to TEs being covered over the middle (last year), he attributes that to good defense.

In regards to the OL, he hopes we stay healthy this year. Last year we lost 5 scholarship OL players to season ending injuries. Donovan Edwards has a lot more experience this year. In total, we have a lot more depth this year too. Tedford is happy to have Tepper back and reinforced the fact that he was an All-Conference player.

In regards to incoming recruit Iso Sofele, he is 5'7" and "very explosive." Tedford said he will play at RB or slot WR, however, he's unsure if he'll break the starting lineup at those positions this year. Instead, Tedford said you'll probably see him at kick returner. Tedford said he's similar to the San Diego Charger's Darren Sprouls, and like that Oregon State freshman runningback (Tedford couldn't recall the name... must not be that good of a player). Sofele is "physical" player and can "catch the ball."

ragnarok: Indeed. However the Bears end up using Sofele, Tedford did say that "it will be hard to keep him off the field."

Then Tedford was asked about future scheduling. He mentioned the upcoming series with Ohio State, which we've known about for years now. However, he also mentioned that there was something with Texas "down the road". Although not everyone I talked to agreed with me, it sounded to Hydro and me like there was something still in the works, as though this was something that could or will happen.

HydroTech: Perhaps, it was unclear. An attempt to schedule Michigan "fell through." Not sure if that would have been for this year, and that's why we had to scramble to get Eastern Washington. Tedford did say that he doesn't want to play too many good teams and prefers A, B, C scheduling. He stressed he always wants a home-home series, and that they're "not interested" in playing somebody without a return game. In regards to a suggestion that we play Notre Dame, Sandy Barbour, who used to work for Notre Dame, added, "The Irish are afraid."

TwistNHook: Hydro, that's all great stuff, but you missed the best part. Remember when that most luminous, most facially attractive, unbelievably hilarious dude asked this amazingly incredible question about Patrick Christopher's poetry. WHAT A QUESTION! It truly blew my mind.

Monty didn't really answer it specifically, but did explain to the crowd what I, I mean, that really awesome Hebrew meant by the question. Talked about how well-rounded his athletes are. So Berkeley!

There was also that question about Jorge Gutierrez, about what he meant to the team. He talked a bit about Jorge's recruitment. Basically about how Garrett Sim (who he didn't mention by name) had tried to back out when Braun left. As in, the kid committed to Cal in the Fall when the Bears were the only major program to offer him, but in the Spring, his hometown Ducks took another look, and he used Braun's departure as an excuse to get out of his letter of intent. They tried to fight it, but then realized that there wasn't much point if the kid didn't really want to be there. So, they had an extra scholarship to hand out.

And then they scrambled to look to try to find somebody, anybody. Finding Jorge was a diamond in the rough. All of the people he played with or against said the same thing, not the most skilled guy, but he works his ass off. And that's why he was crying after the Maryland game. Because he is so passionate about the game. And also about how he can really change the game by inspiring his teammates.

ragnarok: Yeah, Monty definitely touched on the fact that Jorge took the loss to Maryland the hardest. The key quote that I loved about him was Monty saying "he just doesn't understand why everybody else doesn't play as hard as he does." If he can inspire the rest of the team like this as a true freshman, think what he'll be able to do leading a team as an upperclassman.

TwistNHook: I would like to note that Monty literally said "We got lucky on Jorge." And again implied that there were some people on his team that didn't work hard when he said that Jorge was so confused when he saw people who didn't work as hard as he did. So, interesting stuff. Monty is very open.

ragnarok: That was most of the interesting stuff. Someone asked a question about the baseball facilities, and Sandy said that the baseball facilities were one of a number that Athletics was looking into upgrading down the road. So, nothing going on right now on that front, and I personally wonder how much momentum there is for a baseball program that continues to sort of languish in the middle of the Pac-10.

TwistNHook: With Q+A finished, there was a raffle. A cute kid won the football. I didn't get the best photo, but he high-fived everybody on stage and then yelled GO BEARS!

I saw Tedford laughing with him later (or at least I think it was him, it might have been another cute kid). Tedford has a good way with kids. He also joked to the crowd about "recruting 'em young". He's no Monty, but Tedford has a bit of wit about him, too.

Then, the talking session was over. And the shmoozing began. Lord knows I lurve to shmooze. I first sort of wandered aimlessly towards Coach McKeever. I had no idea what to say to her, so I just congratulated her on her fine accomplishments. Then, some random dude walked up in mid-conversation and told me I had dropped a piece of paper on the ground. I didn't believe I did.

So, after he walked off, I loudly accused him of calling me a lying liar and making up lies about me. It was unclear whether she found it funny. Unclear.

Then, it was my big moment. I was ready to shmooze Sandy. Sandy B! We had planned this moment for months. Time to try to drop some knowledge, drop some names, and maybe, just maybe get a card into her hand. A card? Yes!

Now, I had spoken with OskiWeeWee beforehand and she can make nice nice with Sandy. So, I had asked her to introduce me to Sandy. But she got into this conversation and no amount of screaming "GET OUT OF THE CONVERSATION, OSKIWEEWEE" in my head seemed to get her out.

So, I had to go in cold.

That can be tough sometimes. But I had worked on my spiel. And there is another connection to Sandy B. through my wife, which is somewhat tenuous. But better than nothing, right? I went that route, then started to work the Jewish mother angle. "I'm so happy to know we have an AD who bleeds as much blue and gold as you. And I know that somebody who bleeds as much blue and gold as you would want to take advantage of every opportunity to promote Cal." I came really close to wishing she'd settle down with a nice Jewish doctor. But I managed to hold off.

I assured her that there were a lot of shmucks out there in the new media, but we weren't one of them. Ok, I admitted I was a shmuck, but did try to minimize my shmucktitude online. I predict strongly NONE of this will work. But, hey, gotta hustle, right? I even got one of our new ALL CLASSY AND PROFESSIONAL BUSINESS CARDS into her hands. It was so classy and professional! Notice it is in her hand there.

So, there you go. Hustle, hustle, hustle, hustle.

Then, I accused Coach Montgomery of being a bad Jew for eating pork. OK, so one step forward, one million steps back. I saw Monty scarfing down some of the food and told him to steer clear of the pork. He told me he wasn't Jewish. But he did respond to me later in the night when I yelled "SHABBAT SHALOM" at him on the way out. So, I'm getting conflicting reports here.

YHWH, Montgomery must hate me.

Of course, by now the line for Tedford had calmed down a bit. Hydro had been waiting to chat with him for a while, so I snuck into line with him. Hydro started off with all this serious, important stuff like how "2002 really changed Cal football for him" and stuff like that. So important and serious. Bla! I was hoping Tedford would recognize him, too, but he didn't seem to.

Then, we decided to change the subject and ask if that REALLY was Coach Tedford on the Twitter. He said it was him! Problem solved! But he didn't seem to know what was going on with it. I told him that Pete Carroll did it and that he needed to beat Pete Carroll at Twitter! I came INCREDIBLY close to saying something like "Maybe you can finally beat Carroll at something again." But, stunningly, incredibly, unbelievably, incomprelievably, I managed to somehow not speak something that popped into my head. It took pretty much every muscle in my body going into "STOP IMMEDIATELY" mode and I blacked out for about 35 seconds there, but I managed it. SO PROUD OF MYSELF!

Then, I proceeded to tell Tedford about how important it was to get on Twitter. Because I heard that some people (some people!) had created fake Twitter accounts for other head coaches. What?!??! Like Jim Harbaugh and Rick Neuheezy. He was surprised to hear this, but, unfortunately, I didn't have any other information about these fake head coaches, because certainly it's not me making up these fake Twitter accounts.

Tedford said he'd twitter about meeting HydroTech and myself at the Coaches Tour. I'm pretty sure that's what he meant with this tweet:

Nice turnout in Pleasant Hill last night for the coaches’ tour ... http://www.calbears.com/coa.... Great seeing everyone.

Yes, HydroTech and myself do constitute a nice turnout. And yes, it was great seeing you, too, Coach Tedford!

At least this year I managed not to embarrass myself like last year when I rambled about how I had tried to evict a series of grandmothers. So, that's a step up!

Bee Tee Dubz, on the way out, we saw Monty get into a black Lexus. And he said he couldn't afford a Lexus. Tedford drives a BMW. I wonder if Monty is jealous!

ragnarok: Well, if Monty is jealous, he can at least take comfort in the fact that he doesn't drive a Toyota Avalon, like some former Cal Basketball coaches I could name. I think the cars they drive make a good metaphor for Cal Basketball, as Cal has now upgraded its basketball coach from a sensible mid-size sedan into a cushy luxury car. After just one year, I think we can all say that the ride has improved considerably.

TwistNHook: So, there you go. All the spinsanity from the Pleasant Hill Cal Coaches Tour 2009.

Cal vs. Maryland : What Went Wrong?

ragnarok — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 16:00:09 -0000

Well, the Cal Men's Basketball team's long-awaited return to the NCAA Tournament didn't exactly go as hoped: the Bears struggled mightily to score, did just enough to hang around for 30 minutes, then faded down the stretch, frankly looking overmatched against a Maryland squad that, while good, was hardly a world-beater (they were flatteden by Memphis in Round 2). What went wrong? Was this a fluke, or a symptom of a larger problem the Bears have battled all year? What hope do we have for improvement next year?

I can't believe we were one and done! - Image via cdn0.sbnation.com

CBKWit: Montgomery has often said that when the Bears shoot the ball, they're pretty good, and when they don't, they're pretty bad. We can parse through any number of statistics, but I felt that the game basically boiled down to that simple premise. It's tough enough for a balanced team to shoot 29% from behind the arc and win the game - for a team that basically relies on jump shooting without much of an inside game to counter (the Bears), it's virtually impossible. I'll bet we've shot under 30% on threes only a handful of times this year, and I'd bet more that we didn't win any of those games.

ragnarok: Well, not only did we shoot terribly from three, but we shot often from three. 24 attempts ties for the second-most all year, including 14 in the first half, when the game was close, so you know they weren't all desperation shots near the end of the game. I really think that when the Bears play well, they don't settle for outside jumpers, and while some of those attempts were good, open looks, overall I felt like the Bears failed to run their offense far too often.

Of course, if the Bears make just 10 of those attempts instead of 7 (and 41.7% is still below their season average), this is a very different game. Sometimes, it really *is* the most obvious statistic.

CBKWit: The Maryland defense didn't so much take away shots as it disrupted the rhythm and flow of the Bear offense. Monty said "I don't truthfully know if Maryland did anything different than other (teams) did, but they got us out of our rhythm a little bit. Maybe that's a consequence of their press, but we never seemed to get in any sort of rhythm." I called the Cal offense "herky-jerky" immediately following the game, although at least part of this impression was due to the choppy feed I watched online. The Bears got plenty of open looks, especially in the first half, but the offense still felt off. Only 12 assists on 25 field goals adds to the impression that Cal simply wasn't running an efficient offense.

Cal did wind up scoring 71 points, though, so offensive problems don't tell the whole story. Cal also out-rebounded Maryland 33-29. If you had told me before the game that Cal would score 71 points and out-rebound the Terps, I would have guessed we won. Giving up 84 points, including 33 in the last 12 minutes cost the Bears the game. Failure to get defensive stops meant that Cal couldn't get out on the break for easy buckets. It also gave Maryland a chance to set up their press, which caused not a huge amount of turnovers (14) but certainly aided the Terrapins in disrupting Cal's offensive rhythm. You could say, then, that Cal's defensive shortcomings to a good extent led to their offensive struggles, and that often their offensive struggles gave Maryland easy buckets on the other end. I would guess that had Cal either shot a decent percentage or played a bit stronger defensively, they could have turned the game into a toss-up. But each issue exacerbated the other, and the combination of poor shooting and poor defense was plenty to do them in.

ragnarok: So, you're saying that the combination of the Bears not shooting well and their inability to defend Maryland's shooters caused them to score fewer points than the Terrapins, which in turn caused them to lose the game? I am shocked! Shocked!!

You're right, though, that not enough blame falls to the lack of defensive effort from the Bears. 84 points is a lot in the college game, especially for a team like the Bears that doesn't play at an especially fast pace. For the first half, Cal was able to keep Maryland from being terribly efficient on offense either, leading to a close, if ugly, game (Vasquez picking up two relatively early fouls sure helped in this regard).

However, all it took was one relatively modest 13-2 run by the Terrapins in the second half to knock the Bears pretty much out of the game. In between the TV timeout around 12:00 minutes and the one around 8:00, Maryland pretty much had their way with the Bears, hitting 5 of 6 shots, while Cal missed 4 shots, turned the ball over twice, and got one measly bucket when Harper Kamp laid in an offensive rebound. The Bears seemed stunned by this sudden outburst, and were completely unable to muster the intensity necessary to respond in kind.

CBKWit: I guess that's why Monty said two words to the team after the game, on what they should do in preparation for next season: "Get tough." After the Maryland run, Cal cut the Terrapin lead to 7 on one of Randle's patented deep pull-up threes. Maryland missed two free-throws but Cal was unable to secure the rebound, giving Vasquez a lay-in and a free throw for a three-point play. It seemed like the funky bounces on rebounds and loose balls were going Maryland's way all game, with non bigger than Vasquez's rebound and put back as Cal seemed poised to make a run. Maybe Maryland was just fortunate to be in the right spots for most of the game, or maybe this Cal team needs to get tough and create their own breaks.

Cal struggled with foul trouble for most of the second half. I didn't have a problem with most of the fouls against Cal, but it seemed like Maryland was able to play the physical defense Cal (and especially Gutierrez) was attempting without getting called for it. Jorge in particular was called for some pretty ticky-tack fouls on the perimeter when Maryland's trap was getting away with much of the same. Perhaps this influenced how "tough" Cal was playing in the second half. If you can't play the type of defense that you want and, perhaps more importantly, that your opponent is playing, it probably would make you a bit hesitant.

Avinash: You have talked about this team needing to be tough, so do you guys believe that Cal basketball was too soft this season?

Who are you calling soft?!? - Image via grfx.cstv.com

HydroTech: What is "tough"?

Avinash: The perception that a team doesn't play good team defense, doesn't like to take or absorb contact when they play, doesn't try to take it to the rack and get to the foul line, settles for trying to win the game from the outside rather than going inside.

Any team can shoot it up, but can they get to the basket when they need to at crucial times? (I.e. the Lakers in the Finals last year versus the Celtics.)

ragnarok: I think Cal Basketball was tough for some stretches of time, and then surprisingly soft during others. We obviously don't win that 3OT game in Washington without being tough, but at other times (@Missouri, @UCLA), the team would seem to wilt under pressure. I think the home game vs. Stanford was a perfect example:

First Half - Not Tough (Big Deficit)
Second Half - Tough (Big Comeback)

The next step, of course, is to not go into those 'not tough' lulls in the first place.

CBKWit: Changing personnel should help to a certain extent. Jordan Wilkes is a good passer and shooter, but he is not a physical player (I won't say he's not tough - I think playing with a broken nose qualifies him as tough). It's nice to have a seven footer who can knock down a 15 footer, but Harper Kamp is also a good shooter and (especially) a good passer. Boykin too is a decent offensive player (the bricks against Maryland notwithstanding) but isn't much of an athletic or physical specimen. Having another big body in Markhuri Sanders-Frison (270 pounds) should help Cal on the interior, along with a healthier Harper Kamp and a fiesty Taylor Harrison (we can hope!).

Jorge is probably already Cal's toughest player, but he can't defend the entire perimeter himself. Randle is Cal's "biggest" offensive threat, and as such he needs to be on the floor. In order for Cal to significantly improve their defense, Randle will have to become a better defender, especially against dribble penetration. On offense, Randle is bothered by athletic, longer defenders due to his size; he's not going to get any bigger, so having another ball handler (like Jorge) will give Cal some flexibility and allow Randle to play off the ball on some possessions.

Lots of issues, lot of room for improvement, but a very successful and entertaining season. Go Bears!

Bears Find Their Shooting Touch, Complete Husky Sweep

ragnarok — Sat, 07 Feb 2009 00:54:42 -0000

Note: This post was written jointly by CBKWit and ragnarok. Try and guess who wrote what!

After the losses to Stanford and USC, CBKWit said that sometimes, despite your best efforts, the other team makes their shots and there's not much you can do about it. Now, those games were much closer than last night's win, and I don't think that Cal had nearly the number of lucky breaks and bounces that the 'Furd (Mitch Johnson shot-putting a jumper which hits front iron, somehow bounces up and comes down through the cup) and SC (their European player doing a volleyball set as he falls backwards for a bucket) had in their wins. Still, Cal was absolutely scorching down the stretch, hitting (by my count) 21 of 30 field goals for 70% in the final 17 minutes of the second half. A lot of the buckets were good, open shots, but Randle hit a couple of off-balance jumpers coming off curls, Theo hit a 25 footer with a hand in his face as the shot clock was winding down, and when Jorge absolutely bricks a runner in the lane, only it hits back iron and rolls down...well, it's probably your night.

There's lots of credit to go around for last night's win, but if there's any doubt about who is the most important player on this team, let me clear that up right now: Cal will go just about as far as Jerome "The Bulldog" Randle (yes, that's how the PA announced introduced him) is able to take them this year. Plenty of others on the roster contribute a good deal, but Cal is least able to afford an off-night from Randle. When he's on, Cal looks like they could beat just about anyone in the country; however, if he gets flustered or sloppy or tired, Cal just is going to have to suffer, as letting Guttierrez or Knezevic handle the ball for extended periods of time is just not going to cut it.

And when Cal needed a comeback last night, Randle was Johnny-on-the-spot. Down by 9 at one point, Randle and Jordan Wilkes combined the bring the Bears close (with Wilkes contributing several nice moves inside, and Randle adding a huge 3 to cut the lead from 7 to 4). Then, down by 2, Randle reeled off 6 straight points to give the Bears the lead for good, including a crazy, coast-to-coast dribble-drive-behind-the-back-spin-and-layup that absolutely sent the crowd into its largest cheer of the night. All told, the Bears went from down 7 to up 4 between the 16 and 12 minute marks of the second half, and Randle scored 11 points during that 17-6 run. It was a lead they would not relinquish.

Of course, Randle may have his detractors. While Randle was shooting two free thows to give the Bears the lead for good, one of the guys behind me started saying "Hi, I'm Jerome Randle" in a high-pitched, Mr. Hankey from South Park voice. It was kinda weird. "Howdy-ho, I'm shooting free throws!" I have no idea what that was about. Personally, I think Randle bears a pretty decent resemblance to Rickey Henderson, especially when he's angry.

Am I wrong? - Images via cache.daylife.com and www.vinewoodsportcards.com

Actually, the guys sitting behind me were pretty entertaining; they kept up a steady stream of ridiculous commentary all game. Though ostensibly Cal fans, they also disparaged Harper Kamp, sarcastically referring to him as "Offensive Powerhouse". "Oh look, the Offensive Powerhouse is in the game. Great!" Right on cue, however, Kamp lays in a feed from Randle on a nice baseline cut, which shut them up pretty good.

Theo Robertson did a great job hitting his jumpers throughout the game, but the score would have been even more lopsided had he been able to contain Quincy Pondexter, who abused Theo for 21 points and 6 offensive rebounds. Theo is a smart, fundamentally sounds player with a great shot, but he is not very athletic and the Huskies exploited this last night. Great offensive performance for Theo, but giving up the same number of points to his man to go with only 2 rebounds isn't a very complete game.

That said, I think the most exciting play of the game was his 3 point play on a back door lay-in and subsequent free throw. Randle had been terrorizing the Huskies on pick-and-rolls on prior possessions, so the Husky defenders were a little jumpy to get out on the perimeter. Cal exploited it beautifully and Theo had the left half of the floor all to himself as he coasted in for the lay-in. I jumped out of my seat and did a spastic little fist pump while shouting "Beautiful! Beautiful! Beautiful!"; 20 seconds later, I received a text which simply said "Beauty". This play almost doubled Cal's lead, from 4 to 7 points, at the midway point of the second half, and the Huskies would get no closer than 5 the rest of the way.

However, as good as the Bears' offense was (and it was fantastic in the second half, with stretches where the Bears made 10 of 12 baskets and then 9 of 11), I was also impressed with their defense. Patrick Christopher finished with only 3 points on the night (giving him exactly 1,000 for his career), but he was a big reason why the previously red-hot Justin Dentmon hit only 3 of 12 field goals. The Bears' second half run was fueled as much by their defense, particularly on Dentmon and mini Isaiah Thomas, as by their offense. Cal did a great job of trapping the Husky guards once they got past the Cal perimeter defense, and Thomas especially often found himself without his dribble, in the key, surrounded by Golden Bears and without a good place to pass.

The Bears were also able to stymie Jon Brockman, at least on the offensive end. Brockman (or as the guys behind me alternately called him, "Jon Brickman", then "Brick Wall", and finally "Brockles V. McBricksworth") never once got a clean look at the basket, and he scored all 4 of his points on free throws as he went 0-4 from the floor. Yeah, he got 15 rebounds, including 6 on the offensive end, but I thought Wilkes, Kamp, and Jamal Boykin all did a nice job harassing Brockman and marginalizing his impact. The Bears continually doubled Brockman, forcing him to pass back outside time and time again, and that's not how the Huskies win games (they were 2-12 from three last night).

Brockles V. McBricksworth (ugly guy, left) never got his offensive game going vs. Cal. - Image via cdn1.sbnation.com

I believe I read somewhere that Brockman is UW's all time leading rebounder. It seems like he has been around forever, because he's been a good player for the last four years, but for all his virtue and achievement, Cal has really had his number. Two or three years ago, Cal beat UW when forced, by injury, to use Mr. Theo Robertson to defend Brockman in the post. Giving up 30 pounds to the opposition's star post player isn't typically a formula for success, but it worked against Brockman. Even in last year's loss to the Huskies at Haas Pavilion, it was Joe Wolfinger, he of the whopping 82 minutes played this season, and not Jon Brockman who dominated Ryan Anderson.

Still, the story of the game was the Bears' offense finally coming back to life. Against USC, they couldn't get their jump shots to fall, and against UCLA, they couldn't even hang on to the ball long enough to get off a shot, but Thursday night vs. U-Dub, everything seemed to click. Jordan Wilkes followed up his career night at USC with another impressive game, scoring 14 points on 6-9 shooting , grabbing 8 boards (inlcuding 6(!) on the offensive end), and adding 3 assists, no turnovers, and a block. Where has this guy been all his career? Jump-shooting teams will run through hot and cold streaks, but if Wilkes can consistently come out and give the Bears something in the post, perhaps the Bears will weather future cold streaks better than they did over the past 3 weeks.

Lost Weekend for Cal in the Southland

ragnarok — Sun, 01 Feb 2009 06:43:11 -0000

"So many reasons to hate L.A. So. Many. Reasons." - AndBears, after the game

Good riddance, LA. - Image via www.engin.umich.edu

Well, at least the Bears were in this one. The highlights (and lowlights):

- 16 and 9 for Jordan Wilkes. The 16 points are a career high, and I wouldn't be surprised if the 9 boards were as well.
- However, Wilkes left the game late with what looked like it might be a knee injury. Here's hoping it's nothing serious, given his injury history. So far, the Bears have been pretty fortunate on the injury front this year.
- Jamal Boykin goes off for 18 and 11, a double-double. Good stuff there.
- Not much outside the arc. A combined 8 points from Christopher and Robertson, including an 0-fer from 3. Overall, the Bears were just 2 of 16 from 3 tonight, an absurdly low total for this team.

These are both good teams. They're both flawed teams, however, probably bubble teams down the stretch. I think one of the two will make the tournament, but not both. The final score belied how close this game was, and I think had a couple of breaks gone the Bears' way, they certainly could have won this game. I don't think I learned anything new about the Bears today, except maybe that Jordan Wilkes is a better scorer than I gave him credit for. A tough loss, but not terribly unexpected. I think the Bears beat the Trojans at home, and after losing 4 of their last 5 games, they now enter an easier portion of the schedule (5 of the next 7 at home).

Besides, did you think the Bears would be 5-4 halfway through the conference schedule?

Oregon State Travels to Cal to Face Hot-Shooting Bears

Jake Bertalotto — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 02:56:38 -0000

Oregon State travels to the Bay Area to play California and Stanford this week, and they'll start things off with the Golden Bears at Haas Pavilion on Thursday.

The Bears are currently 15-3 on the season, and 4-1 in Pac-10 play. They won their first four Pac-10 games against the Washington and Arizona schools before dropping the "Big Game" to Stanford 75-59 last weekend. California will be looking to start a new win-streak against the Beavers, after their nine game stretch was snapped by the Cardinal. The Bears are tied for first place in the conference, although they still haven't played UCLA or USC on this first trip around the Pac-10 schedule.

California head coach Mike Montgomery is one of four new Pac-10 head coaches this year. OSU's Craig Robinson, Stanford's Johnny Dawkins, and Arizona's Russ Pennell are also in their first year as head coach. Although it's Mike's first year at Cal, he has a horde of Pac-10 coaching experience, including an 18 year tenure at Stanford. His 562-247 (.694) career mark makes him one of the best coaches in the college game, but, I wouldn't call him the greatest yet.

The Bears are the best three-point shooting team in all of the land at 47.3%. They're lead by sharp-shooters Theo Robertson and Jerome Randle, who we'll talk about more in just a minute. Cal is the tenth-best field goal shooting team in the country.

Interestingly enough, there are no seniors on Cal's roster. Montgomery's squad boasts seven juniors-- five of them make up the starting lineup. There are also four freshmen on the team, one of them being 7'3" Max Zhang, the tallest player in California basketball history. His first points as a Bear came on (guess...) a slam dunk, but he plays five minutes per game and has less than twenty points for the season.

Anyway, on with a profile of Cal's starters:

Seven-foot junior Jordan Wilkes is the big man in the middle. Along with Max Zhang, who I talked about above, Wilkes is part of the first 7'0" tandem of players to ever play for Cal at the same time. Wilkes is averaging just 4.4 points per game and averages 18 minutes, the lowest totals for a starter, but he does pull in just under four rebounds per game. His best in-conference performance came in a 81-71 win over Arizona State, when he scored seven points.

Six-foot-eight junior Jamal Boykin averages 7.9 points per game, and is sixth in the conference with a 55.3 field goal percentage. He's Cal's leading rebounder, with an average of 6.2 per game. He had a career-best 22 points in the loss to Stanford, and also had 7 rebounds and 4 assists.

Six-foot-six junior guard Theo Robertson averages 12.4 points per game and leads the country in three-point field goal percentage at 58.3. He missed all of last year due to pre-season hip surgery, but he's back strong this year. He's scored in double digits in 14 of Cal's 18 games this season, and hit the game-winning free throw in that crazy three overtime win against Washington a few weeks ago.

Six-foot-six junior guard Patrick Christopher was a member of Cal's starting backcourt for much of last season, and is playing slightly less than he did a year ago. However, he is averaging 15.7 points per game this season, a number that is up from a year ago, and scored over 20 points in each of Cal's first four conference games, in which they went 4-0.

Five-foot-ten junior guard Jerome Randle also started in Cal's backcourt last year along side Christopher. Randle is the guy who Craig Robinson has been worrying the most about from behind the three-point arc. Randle averages 18.7 points per game, and is 40 of 87 from three-point range this season. Robertson leads the team in true three-point percentage, but Randle shoots the deep ball with much more regularity. He's led the team in 12 of 18 games this season.

Off the bench, look for sophomore Harper Kamp and Jeorge Gutierrez to make an impact. They both have been averaging nearly twenty minutes per game.

Again, tipoff is Thursday at 7:30 PM. For the first time in what seems like a long time, the game won't be televised.

--Jake (jake.buildingthedam@gmail.com)

Cal Loses Legend, Wins Game

CBKWit — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 01:43:24 -0000

Pete Newell Court

Pete Newell, Cal's coach from 1954-1960, died on Monday at the age of 93. He led Cal to its last national championship in 1959 and retired shortly thereafter, having beaten John Wooden's Bruin teams 8 times in a row (and without even paying his players). In fitting irony, Tuesday's game at Haas featured the two teams he led to national titles - USF, which won the NIT in 1949, and Cal. Cal paid tribute to Newell before the game with an announcement and video presentation, a moment of silence, and the loudest cheer of the evening. I was sitting with an Old Blue who commented that "Newell was a great coach and an even better person." Those that knew him speak with glowing admiration; the rest of us will have to settle for the pride in having this great man associated with our University.

This Cal team is going to live and die on its three-point shooting. We don't have much of an inside presence (more on that later) so we're going to have to rely on Patrick Christopher, Jerome Randle, and Theo Roberston to hit outside shots. When they're hot, we'll probably win; when they're cold, we'll almost definitely lose. Last night, Theo was scorching, hitting 5 threes in the first half and scoring 11 straight Cal points during an early stretch. He found a spot outside the arc about 1/3 of the way to the left baseline and started firing away - I'm pretty sure he hit all of his threes from the same location. He ended up with 19 of Cal's 38 first half points. In the second half, Jerome Randle took over the scoring with 21 points in last 20 minutes. He finished with 25, 3-4 from beyond the arc.

It seemed like Cal hit more than 50% of their shots, and they did - 58.3%, to be exact, and a ridiculous 8-12 on three-pointers. Christopher was "only" 4-9, but Boykin chipped in 15 on a steady diet of mid-range jumpers. More often than not, our victories are going to look a lot like this game. And if you think hitting 66% of our three pointers is sustainable for 20 or so games, then you probably think we'll be a tournament team. I don't, and I don't see much in the way of offense that's going to carry us when the outside shots aren't falling.

Boykin hits from 18

Although we shouldn't bemoan Ryan Anderson for leaving us (1st round draft pick and 15 & 17 in his first two games - looks like he made the right choice), it would be nice to have an offensive presence in the paint. Our centers are simply physically weak; Jordan Wilkes' fist offensive offering was less of a baby hook than a fall away heave over one shoulder, and Max almost broke himself in half when he tried to reach down for a low bounce pass. You want to beg Wilkes to go up strong around the hoop, but he looks very tentative and afraid of contact, and thus his height advantage is completely wiped out. On the other end, Wilkes had a great (and very surprising) block that had the stunned crowd roaring. He also gets in decent position for defensive rebounds and uses his long arms to box out opposing bigs. We've been spoiled by Powe and Anderson, which makes the difference offensively all the more glaring.

The defensive effort from Saturday night did not exactly carry over to Tuesday - USF hit 50% from the field and 57% from beyond the arc. The Dons were hot, but they also had a number of open shots. Cal will definitely need to improve its defensive intensity if it wants to compete in the Pac, and Montgomery knows it: "I went in and blasted them a little bit," Montgomery said. "We made a lot of mistakes that we can't make if we're going to be a good team down the road" Still, the building blocks are there: on a few occasions, Cal had nice weakside ball pressure in the key which led to a a few USF turnovers. And we have photographic evidence of Cal guards defending beyond the three-point line, something I didn't think was possible last year.

Perimeter Defense!!!

While we still love Jorge Gutierrez (he has a sweet little pull-up jumper off the dribble from the top of the key), he and Randle are prone to pretty sloppy play. USF briefly took the lead 60-59 on about a 10-0 run, fueled by very careless mistakes by our backcourt. Randle looked like the vintage, turnover-prone freshman version of himself when he tried to dribble through a double team (fail!) and then proceeded to lob an alley-oop to Guiterrez in the hopes that he had Patrick Christopher's vertical (he definitely doesn't). It was an ugly stretch, and Montgomery, wanting the two of them to work through their difficulties on their own, was finally forced to call a timeout when the Dons took the lead. Cal then proceeded to go on a 8-10 point run of their own, fueled by (you guessed it) Guiterrez and Randle. Randle settled down, started playing within himself, and scored about 15 points in the last 8-10 minutes. Monty had a number of choice words for Randle during the game, and how Randle handles himself, the instruction, and the criticism is going to have big implications for the team's success.

Guiterrez scores from the free-throw stripe.

The most amusing part of the game was a very animated referee; at one point, the ref pointed to a USF player, hopped on one foot for a second or two pointing at his shoe, and then made an exaggerated first down motion in the opposing direction. I appreciated his efforts, since I often wonder what the officials see that determines the call, but I was troubled by the feeling I had seen him before. In fact, I had; Seinfeld fans (so, Spazzy and Twist), remember George's "timeless art of seduction" and the photo-shop guy he accidentally woos? He has resurfaced as a ref.

via imagecache2.allposters.com

I couldn't find the other guy, so we'll just have to use this and a little imagination.

Credit to Ragnarok for the pictures, especially the last one.

Bears Beat Pacific, Salvage Weekend For Cal Fans

ragnarok — Mon, 17 Nov 2008 00:12:48 -0000

After watching the Bears' frustrating and disappointing loss up in Corvallis yesterday, I needed some relief. I found some at the bottom of a beer bottle (the first couple didn't have any, so I had to keep looking), but I find the best way to ease the pain of a Cal defeat is to follow it up with a Cal victory. With that in mind, CBKWit and I headed over to Haas Pavilion yesterday evening to catch the season opener of the men's basketball team versus the University of the Pacific.

The only interesting shot I managed to take the entire game.

Overall, it was a good game, close enough to be interesting, but there was never really a doubt that Cal was in command. A couple times Pacific got within 6, but it never really felt like they had a run in them, and the Bears were able to hold off the Tigers and give Mike Montgomery his first victory at Cal. Here are CBKWit's and my thoughts on last night's victory:

- My (Ragnarok's) new favorite player: Jorge Gutierrez. By my count, he drew at least 4 fouls in the first half, and his infectious energy is exactly what our defense needs this year. He sort of reminds me of A.J. Diggs, if Diggs had any scoring ability whatsoever.

- Defense overall was pretty good in the first half. Only 20 points given up, and I don't think I saw any uncontested baskets by the Tigers. Not very many open shots at all. No, Pacific wasn't shooting lights-out, hands in their face or not, but it was definitely a nice defensive effort.

- One critical defensive improvement I noticed was ball pressure. Cal was pretty terrible in this area last year (watching Mitch Johnson, he of zero outside shot, get 5 feet to operate and feed the Lopez twins with ease comes to mind), but last night our guards (and forwards, when defending perimeter shooters) pressured Pacific beyond the arc. Braun's area of expertise was supposedly defense, but if you caught any of the games at Haas last year (Stanford, UW, and especially WSU and Oregon), you didn't see much defensive skill or, even more discouraging, effort. Last night, for the most part, our guys got after it.

- Defense got sloppier to open the second half, as Pacific managed to free up some shooters on the perimeter and knock down some long range shots. They cut a 16-point halftime lead in half, and this was about a 6-10 point game most of the way down the stretch.

- Offense was...interesting. It was fairly effective, but mostly because the Bears were fantastic from beyond the arc. Both Randle and Christopher hit a number of big shots from 3 as the play clock wound down, basically bailing out offensive sets where the Bears got very little going. When Theo manages to bank a 3 as time runs out, you know things are going Cal's way. These are good shooters, so it's not like the Bears were hitting a bunch of flukey shots (the bank shot notwithstanding), but it'd be nice if Cal had a little more going on inside.

- Jordan Wilkes can shoot a bit, but he's *so* weak to the basket. It's sometimes maddening. He does some nice things on the court, and deserves significant minutes, but despite his height, he's sometimes seems rather miscast as a center. The Bears could *really* use some inside presence, and I'm not sure that Wilkes provides that.

- Max Zhang is -- how you say -- not ready. He sometimes looks lost out there, getting confused trying to set screens against defensive players that have already moved past him. Keep giving him playing time, but I think it might be a couple years before Max is ready to take on a major role with this team.

- In fact, much of the inside defensive dirty work was performed by Jamal Boykin and Harper Kamp. Neither figured much on the offensive end, but each made their presence felt. Kamp, in particular, drew at least 3 charging fouls on the Tigers. The man sure knows how to flop.

- However, Boykin's presence wasn't felt as much as the Bears would have liked, as he fouled out (on a stupid foul, no less) with more than 7 minutes to go. With the lack of size depth that the Bears are already feeling, Boykin can't afford to foul out in stupid ways.

- Huge dunk by Max that brought the house down, though. Honestly, I'm not even sure if he had to jump to slam it home. He also had a nice one-handed bank putback late in the game, the sort of play only he can make because of his height. Turns out, we may need him to get better soon, as Jordan Wilkes went to the locker room grimacing with 4 minutes left. And he does have one significant advantage over Wilkes: even though he's very skinny, Wilkes is somehow even skinnier, and Max can set a screen that forces a defender to change his trajectory. When Wilkes turns sideways, he's practically invisible and it doesn't take much to avoid his picks.

- If you're a Cal Basketball fan who's been frustrated in the past by the sometimes brilliant but often inconsistent play of point guard Jerome Randle (which is to say, anyone who's been paying attention), I think you'll like the new and improved Randle. He really seems to have cleaned up his game, making smarter decisions and cutting down on stupid turnovers, and I would guess that Montgomery deserves some of the credit for that. Eddie Kleinhans said as much on the Cal Radio post game report at Looneys (food: decent; service: not so much), commenting that Montgomery's relationship with Randle would, to a large extent, determine the course of our season. He followed that by saying, from the few practices he's attended, it's clear they're working together very well. Randle himself deserves a lot of credit, for he's clearly worked on his game extensively in the offseason.

- Eddie also commented on how often Montgomery stops practice to teach when he sees something he doesn't like. Kleinhans didn't say this explicitly, but the implication was that this is completely different from the way Braun ran practice, and that the players were responding to instruction from the coaches. A coach that coaches - what a concept!

- Montgomery did make an interesting comment on the "Mike Montgomery Show" before the game on 1550AM, noting that Jorge would not be the backup point guard, but instead the duties would fall to either Nikola Knezevic or walk-on Nican Robinson. He wouldn't say who he favored (Nikola's not much of a shooter, but a good defender, while Nican is a bit undersized), but judging by the PT handed out by Monty during this game, it looks like Robinson has the early lead. Regardless, I think we're going to see 30+ minutes of Randle every night for the foreseeable future. This is not a bad thing.

A (Very) Quick Look at the Pacific Tigers

ragnarok — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 00:36:02 -0000

(not to be confused with the Asian Tigers)

So, I know there's this somewhat important football game up in Corvallis tomorrow, but we've talked plenty about that. What we haven't talked about at all is the first Men's Basketball game of the year, which is happening in Berkeley almost immediately following the game (5PM tomorrow). The men will be taking on the University of the Pacific Tigers, a team which I know virtually nothing about. So, to prepare myself for tomorrow's game, I did a little research. Here's what I came up with:

The University of the Pacific is located in Stockton, California. If you've never visited their campus before, don't bother; I have, and I can't think of a single notable or interesting thing about it. Which is pretty much how I feel about Stockton as a whole, but that's neither here nor there. Their basketball team is actually pretty good, going 21-10 last year, good for 2nd in the Big West, though a quarterfinal loss to UC Irvine in the conference tournament probably cost them a shot at the NCAA's, which they've been to 3 out of the last 5 years. Actually, looking over their schedule from last year, there isn't a whole lot to be impressed about. A 70-66 win over Nevada is pretty good, but other than an 80-64 loss at Oregon, they didn't play a whole lot of teams that weren't either second-tier UC schools or CSUs.

Gone this year is leading scorer Steffan Johnson (14.5 ppg), but second-leading scorer (12.8 ppg) Chad Troyer, a 6' 4" guard, returns, as does Anthony Brown (10.7 ppg), a 6' 7" senior forward, who has been named to the Big West's Preseason All-Conference Team. I imagine he's going to be the guy the Tigers' offense will run through.

Pacific's star senior forward, Anthony Brown. - Image via grfx.cstv.com

There's not a lot of size on this roster for the Bears to contend with, with just 3 players on the roster standing 6' 8" or taller, with 6' 9" forward Sam Willard the tallest. Statistically, none of the Tigers' big guys made a big impact last year; Bryan LeDuc led the bigs by averaging 6.9 ppg and 3.9 rpg, playing less than 17 minutes per game. I imagine the Bears will try and work Jordan Wilkes (and Max Zhang) into the lineup a good amount, but if they're forced to win with taller forwards like Jamal Boykin and Omondi Amoke (and Harper Kamp, if he's able to go), I don't think Bears will suffer too much.

On the perimeter, Chad Troyer is the guy most likely to hurt the Bears. The senior shot 44% from beyond the arc last year, and if the Bears give him as many open looks as they gave some of Seattle Pacific's shooters last week, he'll knock a few down. The Bears' strength this year will be on the perimeter, and they need to press that advantage and lock down the outside shooters.

In contrast to our younger Bears (not one player on our team is in their final year of eligibility), Pacific brings 4 seniors and 4 juniors to Haas on Saturday, the sort of experience that good mid-majors use to make a tournament run. I don't have any idea how good they actually are (they're picked to finish 3rd in the Big West, for what that's worth), but I get them sense that they won't be any sort of early-season patsy for the Bears. They're the sort of team that a good, tournament-ready Pac-10 team should handle easily at home, but I honestly don't know what our Bears will do. Forced to predict, I might say Bears by 8, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Cal Basketball Beats Seattle Pacific, Fails to Impress

ragnarok — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 01:00:06 -0000

OK, sure, the Bears beat Seattle Pacific 91-70 Thursday night, but against a Division II team, the victory left a lot to be desired. Imagine the varsity team having trouble putting away the JV squad, and you can get a pretty good idea of how unsatisfying this victory was. I know that not too many of us were expecting Coach Montgomery to work miracles in his first season at the helm of the Golden Bears, especially considering that he himself admitted that the roster was not stocked full of Pac-10-caliber players, but until you see it on the court, it doesn't really sink in.

Seattle Pacific proved to be a more difficult matchup than previously anticipated.

Not that this team is terrible; far from it. There are a number of talented players on this roster, and offensively, I don't know that this team is going to have too much difficulty scoring. Against what should have been an overmatched Seattle Pacific squad, the Bears put up 91 on the scoreboard while substituting liberally, but were unable to really pull away from the Falcons until midway through the second half. The reason? Sloppy team defense.

Individually, there were some nice efforts, but in the first half at least it seemed like it would only take a couple passes for the Falcons to find an open man. I saw far too many open perimeter jumpers, and far too many easy inside layups for my liking. I'm not sure whether the cause was laziness or confusion, and I suspect it was a combination of both. For a team that may at times be physically dominated inside, they are going to need to be a lot better fundamentally, and a lot better on the perimeter.

The Bears took only a 7-point lead against a Division II team into halftime, but came out with a renewed fire in the second half, picking up a lot more turnovers and limiting a lot more of Seattle Pacific's offensive sets. The Bears picked up 8 steals on the night, including 3 by Jerome Randle, who also had a sterling 7-3 assist-to-turnover ratio. Also making an impact defensively is my favorite new Bear, Jorge Gutierrez. Though he didn't make a huge dent in the scorebook, he was all over the place in his 15 minutes, putting in some big-time effort (and falling on his ass a couple times). I look forward to seeing more of him this season.

Of course, I would be remiss not to mention the MVP of the game, Theo Robertson, in his first appearance for the Bears since sitting out last year with an injury. The man clearly missed the game, and came out shooting absolutely on fire. 29 points on 10-14 shooting nearly double the total of every other player in the game (Randle had 15), and without his hot shooting, the Bears might have trailed at the half. I really do believe the Bears might have been a tournament team last year had he been healthy.

Get...in...the...basket!

Also worth noting is Jamal Boykin's double-double, as he posted 12 points and 11 rebounds, the latter figure more than doubling the total of the next highest player in the game (Omondi Amoke had 5). Patrick Christopher will be a central figure of the Bears' offense this year, but he wasn't tonight, shooting just 6-13, including 0-3 from beyond the arc. However, I think he's the kind of player that just needs to keep shooting through his cold streaks, and that's exactly what he did tonight.

Keep shooting, P-Chris. Keep shooting.

The final starter (besides Randle, Christopher, Robertson, and Boykin) was Jordan Wilkes, and I think the jury is still out on him. His displayed a nice shooting touch, but it remains to be seen whether he can push around big bodies inside, as the Falcons didn't really have that much size to match up with him. He'll keep getting minutes, but the Bears aren't going to come close to having the presence inside they did last year. Thank God Kevin Love is in the NBA.

As Coach Montgomery said the other day at Cal's Media Day:

But I have to remind myself that we must be patient and allow these kids to absorb what we're trying to do. It's just going to take some time, there are no ifs, ands or buts about it. We've got a lot of youth out there, a lot of kids who haven't played at the college level. We've given a lot of stuff to them and now we've got to try and slow down and allow them to execute those things. We'll be better in December than we are in November and hopefully better in January than we are in December. That's what we have to recognize. It's just baby steps at this point in time. We're trying to teach fundamentals.

Baby steps, Bears. Baby steps.