SB Nation - Joevan Catron

Know Your (Temporary) Rival: Oregon Ducks

Bill C. — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 21:30:13 -0000

Tajuan Porter leads a banged-up Ducks squad to Columbia tomorrow afternoon.

Oregon: 4-2

	UO	Opp
Points Per Minute	2.01	1.60
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.18	0.94
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.32	1.24
2-PT FG%	50.8%	44.4%
3-PT FG%	37.1%	37.5%
FT%	75.8%	64.1%
True Shooting %	57.1%	52.4%

	UO	Opp
Assists/Gm	14.3	11.7
Steals/Gm	8.5	5.7
Turnovers/Gm	13.0	16.7
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.76	1.04

	UO	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	74	71
Offensive Rebounds	85	49
Difference	+11	-22

UO's season thus far:

@Oregon 94, Winston-Salem State 43 (W)
@Oregon 95, UC-Davis 64 (W)
@Oregon 68, Colorado State 53 (W)
@Portland 88, Oregon 81 (L)
Montana 68, @Oregon 55 (L)
@Oregon 89, Montana State 66 (W)

Where the Ducks are solid

Hard to tell. While it appears that Portland might be a rather legitimate team, the Ducks' schedule so far has been quite weak, and humongous wins over Winston-Salem State and UC-Davis have made their numbers look artificially great. This does appear to be a rock-solid rebounding team, though huge efforts against the cakiest of cupcakes sways the numbers a bit; they were significantly outplayed down low in the loss to Montana. Meanwhile, their guard play looks quite good if you take out of the equation the fact that Portland's backcourt ran circles around them. In all, if I were to rank the five major categories listed above (FG% offense, FG% defense, BCI offense, BCI defense, and rebounding), I would list their strengths like this, from best to worst:

1. Rebounding
2. BCI offense
3. FG% offense
4. BCI defense
5. FG% defense

This seems like a team with size and decent potential, but their defense has not been great so far, considering the level of competition. If you're allowing a true shooting % of 52.4% against this competition, then at home Mizzou should at least get into the 55%-60% range. Shooting has very much not been Mizzou's strong suit thus far, but this might be a nice slump buster. If the Ducks don't force a turnover (and they'll certainly force some), they're probably giving up a decent look.

Where the Ducks are less than solid

Well, for one thing, chemistry is probably going to be off a bit considering how many injuries and absences they've already had to deal with this season. Five players -- Dajuan Porter (ankle), Joevan Catron (back), Matt Humphrey (knee), Josh Crittle (ankle), and Michael Dunigan (hip) -- have already missed time, which is impressive considering Oregon's only played six games. If they are healthy, they've got a quick backcourt and a big frontcourt, but ... are they healthy? Oregon's press for the most part seems justifiably distracted by the football team and Thursday night's Civil War, but I haven't been able to find out for sure who is supposed to play and who is not. This is their first game in a week, so there's a good chance that everybody will be expected to play. At least that's what I'm going to assume until I hear otherwise.

Anyway, beyond health/chemistry, I guess I covered their main weaknesses above: defense.

Player Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	*AdjGS/Gm**	GmSc/Min	Line
Teondre Williams (6'4, 199, So.)	13.5	0.53	25.3 MPG, 14.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.7 APG
Tajuan Porter (5'7, 155, Sr.)	12.4	0.47	26.4 MPG, 14.6 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2.0 SPG, 2.0 TOPG
Malcolm Armstead (6'0, 204, So.)	10.7	0.41	25.8 MPG, 7.5 PPG, 4.5 APG, 2.7 RPG, 2.5 SPG
Michael Dunigan (6'10, 242, So.)	10.0	0.68	14.8 MPG, 8.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 2.3 BPG
LeKendric Longmire (6'5, 200, Jr.)	9.0	0.41	22.2 MPG, 10.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG
Garrett Sim (6'1, 180, So.)	6.8	0.41	16.8 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.5 APG
Joevan Catron (6'6, 237, Sr.)	6.4	0.30	21.3 MPG, 5.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.5 TOPG
Jamil Wilson (6'7, 209, Fr.)	6.0	0.36	16.8 MPG, 5.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.2 APG
E.J. Singler (6'6, 210, Fr.)	5.3	0.40	13.2 MPG, 3.8 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jeremy Jacob (6'8, 225, So.)	3.4	0.23	15.2 MPG, 4.8 PPG, 4.5 RPG
Josh Crittle (6'8, 250, So.)	1.5	0.19	7.7 MPG, 2.7 PPG, 1.3 RPG
Drew Wiley (6'7, 215, So.)	0.8	0.10	7.6 MPG, 2.0 PPG
Nicholas Fearn (6'1, 190, So.)	0.7	0.25	6 minutes
John Elorriaga (6'2, 183, So.)	0.6	0.19	6 minutes
Matthew Humphrey (6'5, 185, So.)	0.5	0.07	7.8 MPG, 2.6 PPG

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Early-season injuries do funny things to the numbers -- because of the roster shifts, Oregon currently has TEN guys averaging at least 13 minutes per game. That's really tough to do.
Honestly, from Mizzou's perspective the most dangerous player on the court for Oregon could be Michael Dunigan. Vanderbilt used size to extreme advantage against Mizzou, and Dunigan did a nice job in Oregon's last game of banging around, getting to the line and making his free throws. If Dunigan gets hot, either from the field or on the glass (or both), then this game could stay pretty close.
Tajuan Porter has a chance to set the Pac-10's career 3-pointers mark this season. He is a quick guard and good shooter, but I'm curious to see how he handles not only Missouri's bigger guards, but Missouri's much bigger guards. He's giving up eight inches to J.T. Tiller and nine to Zaire Taylor, and while I'm sure he's faced plenty of bigger guards in his day (like, every game of his career), here's where Mizzou's strong defense could take over. If Porter can't really get going, then it's up to younger guys like Teondre Williams and Garrett Sim to knock down outside shots. Both are capable of doing so, but you always want to be able to take away a team's most proven scoring threat, and that's Porter.
Oregon finished with a staggeringly bad 8-23 record last year, but taking a look at the roster, you can kind of see why athletic department may have held onto Ernie Kent for another season. Four of the top six contributors are sophomores this year, with six more at the end of the bench; throw in a couple of freshman contributors (Jamil Wilson and E.J. "Don't Call Me Kyle" Singler), and Oregon's got a ridiculously young team. Porter and Joevan Catron are the only seniors, so this team will be able to continue to grow together for a while.

Keys to the Game

Rebounds. They murdered Missouri in the last game, and if guys like Dunigan and Catron are allowed to not only prevent second chances for Mizzou, but also collect some second chances of their own, then Oregon will stay in this game a lot longer than they should.
The 3-Pointer. Oregon takes 21 3's a game, and Missouri takes 22. Oregon's perimeter defense has been far from amazing in terms of FG% and 3PT%, but you never know who may get hot from one game to another. If the Ducks make over 40% of their 3's and Missouri makes below about 35% of theirs, Oregon could have a chance.
Pace. Oregon likes to play a transition game (though they've only averaged about 68 possessions per game -- Mizzou would prefer closer to 75), with pressure defense and as many fast break opportunities as possible. If they're good at it, they might be able to handle Mizzou's pressure alright and apply some of their own. If they're only decent at it, they will play right into Mizzou's hands and get run off the court. Based on the teams they've played, I can't tell if they're good or only decent ... and I'm leaning toward the latter.

Prediction

I always like Missouri's chances when a team from two time zones away makes a long trip for a game with a weird tip-off time. That's just a really long trip to make for a single basketball game, no? While Oregon could hurt Mizzou on the boards, and while they have a couple of long-distance weapons that could get hot, I can't imagine this game ends up tremendously close. Oregon is still learning how to win again, and Mizzou's ready to take out some frustrations. Mizzou 86, Oregon 67.

Ducks Gear Up for the BTI Tournament

dvieira — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:00:44 -0000

Oregon welcomes Winston-Salem State, UC Davis and Colorado State into Mac Court this weekend, hoping to start the 2009-10 season off on a good note. The BTI Tip-off Tournament is a function put on by Basketball Travelers Inc, an organization with an interesting history. If you plan on going to any of the games, make sure you check the parking situation. Homecoming Weekend can be a challenge on campus with all of the events going on. Let's take a look at the teams involved

A Look at Winston-Salem State

Playing as an independent, the Rams sported an 8-22 overall record last year, most of their games coming against opponents from the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. Experience will be important as Winston-Salem will look to ride their veteran backcourt of Brian Fisher and Diontae Gibson. Fisher lead the team last year averaging 14 points and 2 steals per game. Gibson represents their 3pt threat, hitting about 35% of his chances. Both are seniors and should see most of the touches. On the block, Paul Davis will look to clean up on the boards. He averaged better than 53% from the field last year but didn't get a lot of chances. Beyond Fisher, Gibson and Davis, the Rams don't have a legitimate scoring threat returning. 9 players are new to the team so there may be issues with chemistry in their first game.

Even though the Rams have size on the front line, Davis is 6-9, 195lbs and he will get most of the action. Oregon will have a big advantage, both in speed and strength. With most of the action running through the guards, it will be imperative for the Duck bigs not to get in foul trouble. Defense and the transition game should win the game. In a half court set, dish and kick should be open if the Ducks choose to exploit it.

Breaking down UC Davis

Playing in the Big West Conference, the Aggies played to an overall record of 12-18. Head Coach Gary Stewart is in his 7th year as coach and came to UC Davis from UCLA where he worked under Steve Lavin during the 2002-03 season. 3 starters are back, including Joe Harden and Mark Payne who were both named Second Team All-Big West Conference last year. Harden is listed as a 6-8 guard (yes, a guard) who averaged 15 points and 7.2 rebounds a game last year. Payne, another 6-8 guard, averaged 10.4 points and 6 rebounds per game and shot an amazing 68% from the field. The Aggies have quite a bit of experience with a tough front line.

Oregon will have their hands full guarding the post, especially if Harden and Payne are moving the ball. All of the offense runs through them with Dunigan, Catron, Wilson and Jacob taking the brunt of the action. Without a 3 point threat, Oregon should be able to help in the post to create turnovers and run the ball. Managing fouls will be a key component for the Oregon strategy so Payne doesn't get room to distribute the ball.

A Look at Colorado State

CSU had an abysmal season last year, finishing 9-22 overall and 4-12 in the Mountain West Conference. The only bright side may be that almost everyone is coming back for a second turn. Big time threat Marcus Walker is gone but 6-9 junior Andy Ogide is back. Ogide averaged 10.2 points per game. Outside of Ogide, there isn't a lot of help. Jesse Carr is coming back from injury which may help provide an outside threat but CSU is rebuilding and just isn't in very good shape right now.

Final Thoughts

The Ducks should be able to run away from all the teams in the tournament and come out with victories in each contest. Ernie was smart in his scheduling. Just like in exhibition, each team has some unique tests that will challenge Oregon's abilities in different areas. Winston-Salem has a strong backcourt, UC Davis has an excellent frontcourt and CSU is more balanced. Talent and ability should help the Ducks prevail but these teams are a definite step up from the exhibition contests we've seen so far.

MBB Exhibition Game 1 Recap: Ducks 99, Cavaliers 61

dvieira — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 05:24:44 -0000

The men's basketball team got off to a nice start with an exhibition win on Sunday at Mac Court. 5 players scored in double figures and almost everyone got some meaningful playing time. This game went how it was supposed to. Get the guys in the gym under game-like conditions and see how they respond. How much can you learn from your first game against a vastly inferior opponent? I've got a couple things.

1. Jamil Wilson is going to have an immediate impact this season

2. Our shooting woes haven't gone away during the summer

The Ducks were very active in the hustle department. We won the rebound battle with 62 rebounds. Yes, you read that right. 62 rebounds in the game, 31 offensive and defensive rebounds respectively. Even though our shooting was off, the team was crashing the boards, getting after second chance opportunities. We also caused 22 turnovers, translating those turnovers into a respectable 34 points.

Offensively, I thought we shot ok, just not great. We averaged 43% for the game but most of that game from a bad first half. The second half had a decent field goal percentage at 46% but this is Concordia. We shouldn't be shooting under 40% at any time during the game, let alone for a half. Garrett Sim and Tajuan Porter both had tough nights in the shooting department, teaming up to decrease the overall percentage for the team. Take those two out and the team shot around 48%, even including Lekendric Longmire's 2-8 from the field. Sim and Porter won't have this type of game every night but certainly discouraging against this type of competition.

Player Notes

Jamil Wilson came to play tonight and was certainly the star of the show shooting 7-10 from the field with 17 total points and contributing 4 steals in only 18 minutes on the floor. This guy is a beast at the power forward spot and should provide a great option for the team offensively and defensively.

Malcolm Armstead also had a great night, shooting 50% from the field with 14 points. He also spread the ball around, racking up 4 assists.

Tajuan Porter had 2 points on 1-5 shooting with 3 assists and 4 turnovers in 20 minutes. I'll give him a pass for having a bad night but this is his senior season. It's time to step up.

Joevan Catron appears to have found is groove, throwing down 12 points with 0 turnovers. Remember when he would get the ball in the post last year, take a dribble and promptly travel, turning the ball over? I like this new and improved Catron. Keep it up big man.

Final Thoughts

The Ducks took control of the game early and took care of business in a game that they should have won. I especially liked the defensive intensity on Alex Thiefenthaler who only shot 3-11 from the field and had 8 points in 26 minutes. Great defense in the middle took Alex out of his game. This was the first game of a long season. Don't read too much into the statistics but there is a lot to be encouraged about in Jamil Wilson and Malcom Armstead. There's a lot of time for TP and Sim to get things together.

BtB 2009-10 Pac-10 Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 23:57:08 -0000

Last year, the Pac-10 was sneaky good on the national stage, sending 90 percent of its membership to the postseason with little preseason fanfare. However, the postseason ended up being a bit of a downer for the six teams who made the NCAAs, as only Arizona, who was probably the last team in the field of 65, made the second weekend. The College Basketball Invitational was a bigger success, as Oregon State and Stanford met in a semifinal. The Beavers won that matchup and ended up as champions--after they defeated UTEP in a three-game series. Oddly enough, Oregon State had to win the CBI to get to .500 for the year, which is a major accomplishment considering where the Beavers were before Craig Robinson's arrival.

All of that success came at a price for last year's contenders. Six Pac-10 players were selected in the first round of the NBA Draft: Pac-10 Player of the Year James Harden (Arizona State), All-Pac 10 first teamer Jordan Hill (Arizona), all-freshman selection DeMar DeRozan (USC), Jrue Holliday (UCLA), first team selection Darren Collison (also UCLA), and second teamer Taj Gibson (USC). Three more players, first-teamers Jeff Pendergraph (ASU), John Brockman (Washington), and Chase Budinger (also U of A), were selected in the second round. Of those nine, five were underclassmen.

That means the conference will have to try to replicate its success with only two all-Pac-10 first-teamers back (Patrick Christopher and Jerome Randle of California) and just two second-teamers, including Freshman of the Year Isaiah Thomas (UW), returning. That means those two teams, who unarguably lost the least, start out as the favorites. UCLA should fit in right behind, though they'll be young. Arizona should also be able to contend, though. much like the Bruins much depends on newcomers, and late signings at that. Oregon State, who should be even better in their second season in Robinson's system, could surprise more than West Coasters this time around, especially as most of their roster is intact. Among the remaining five teams, things are muddled. That mess may become clearer during the non-conference season.

The league also turned over 30 percent of its coaches during the offseason. I'll discuss those changes in each team's individual write up after the jump.

First, here's a look at the final 2008-09 Pac-10 standings.

Pacific-10 Conference Standings

(updated 4.4.2009 at 12:56 AM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Washington Huskies	14	4	26	9
UCLA Bruins	13	5	26	9
Arizona St. Sun Devils	11	7	25	10
California Golden Bears	11	7	22	11
USC Trojans	9	9	22	13
Arizona Wildcats	9	9	21	14
Washington St. Cougars	8	10	17	16
Oregon St. Beavers	7	11	18	18
Stanford Cardinal	6	12	20	14
Oregon Ducks	2	16	8	23

Now here are my picks for the 2009-10 season, presented in reverse order. If a team's name is a link, click it to go to that school's SBN site, where you'll find in-depth, team-specific analysis during the season.

Stanford (last NCAA: 2008) Johnny Dawkins' task wasn't going to be easy this season, as he had to replace his two leading scorers (Anthony Goods and Lawrence Hill) and his starting backcourt (Goods and Mitch Johnson). His task was made more difficult when start recruit Andy Brown was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Today, Dawkins indefinitely suspended guard Jeremy Green (6.4 ppg, 45.6% from 3, 2.1 rpg) for violating team rules further reducing the Cardinal roster. The best news for Dawkins is that senior forward Landry Fields (12.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg) is still around. He and 6-9 center Josh Owens (6.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg) will anchor the frontcourt, but inexperience in the backcourt could lead to Stanford spending a second straight year near the bottom of the league. The Cardinal will play in Cancun over Thanksgiving, where they'll face Virginia, then either Cleveland State or Kentucky.

USC (last NCAA: 2009) Tim Floyd left not long after he interviewed for the opportunity to be Lute Olson's replacement at Arizona. Replacing Floyd is...Kevin O'Neill, who was the coach-in-waiting in Tucson during the 2007-08 season. He faces a serious rebuilding project, as the Trojans second, third, and fourth leading scorers--Gibson, DeRozan, and Daniel Hackett of a year ago are all gone. Leading scorer Dwight Lewis (14.4 ppg, 3.3 rpg) is back, however, to anchor a frontcourt that should be respectable, as 6-9 UNC transfer Alex Stephenson is newly-eligible and 6-6 Marcus Johnson will be back from a shoulder injury. They'll join returnees Leonard Washington (6.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Nikola Vucevic (2.6 ppg, 2.7 rpg). The backcourt is a major question mark though, as junior Donte Smith and freshman Percy Miller (aka Lil' Romeo) will compete with Charlotte transfer Mike Gerrity for the point guard spot that was supposed to be filled by Lamont Jones. The Trojans will spend Christmas in Hawai'i, which should be a winnable tournament, even in a down year.

Arizona State (last NCAA: 2009) The Sun Devils return three starters, most notably senior point guard Derek Glasser (8.8 ppg, 4.8 apg). However, the two starters who left are big pieces to replace, Harden and Pendergraph. Herb Sendek will have to rely on several returnees who saw little playing time last season and a boatload of newcomers, led by 7-2 Russian center Ruslan Pateev and 6-2 local product Demetrius Walker, to replace all of that production. Sendek's team should once again be one of the best in the country defensively (if the newbies buy into his system), but the big question will be can he get enough scoring. The Sun Devils host the West regional of the NIT, where Cal State-Northridge and TCU appear to be their biggest obstacles to getting to New York.

Washington State (last NCAA: 2008) Like the rest of the teams in what I'm projecting as the Pac-10's second division for this year, the Cougars lost significant scoring punch at the end of last season. In this case, their top two scorers are gone, Taylor Rochestie (13.2 ppg, 4.5 apg) and Aron Bynes (12.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.3 bpg). As you can see, the Cougs' former point guard and center brought more to the table than just points. So the challenge for former Portland State head coach Ken Bone in his first year as Tony Bennett's replacement is to find players who can fill those gaps, all while complementing 6-6 sophomore G Klay Thompson (12.5 ppg, 4.2 rpg), one of the best shooters in the conference. 6-8 sophomore and 6-9 Australian freshman Brock Motum will be called on to fill Bynes' spot, while Thompson will be supported by a couple of youngsters in the backcourt--Reggie Moore and Xavier Thomas. The Cougars head north for Thanksgiving. They'll compete in a Great Alaska Shootout group that includes hosts Alaska-Anchorage and Nicholls State. If they win both of those, they'll probably face Oklahoma in the final.

Oregon (last NCAA: 2008) Despite all the rumors to the contrary, Ernie Kent is still the head man in Eugene. Sure the Ducks only won 8 games during all of last year, including only two in the league, but that was with a team that featured eight freshmen. This year's Oregon outfit should be a bit more experienced, and may be even better next year, as leading scorer Tajuan Porter (15.4 ppg) and Joevan Catron (7.2 ppg, 6.6 rpg) are the only seniors on the roster. There's also only one junior, 6-5 swingman LeKendrick Longmire (9.9 ppg. 3.7 rpg). Kent really needs to get someone to play at the point, however, with JC transfer Malcolm Armstead the best hope. One of his teammates at Chipola CC, 6-7 F Jeremy Jacob is also expected to be a major contributor to the frontcourt alongside Catron, Longmire, and 6-10 C Michael Durnigan (8.4 ppg, 4.6 rpg). The Ducks will host a four-team round-robin very early in the season, where Colorado State should be their main competition for the title.

Arizona (last NCAA: 2009) Sean Miller left Xavier to replace Russ Pennell who replaced Kevin O'Neill who filled in for Lute Olson. His first couple of tasks in Tucson have to be considered major successes, as he kept 5-10 guard Nic Wise (15.7 ppg, 4.6 apg) from joining Hill and Budinger in the NBA. Then, he snagged a late recruiting class that should help keep the Wildcats competitive in the Pac-10. 6-6 Solomon Hill and 6-10, 255 pound C Kyryl Natyazhko will provide support to Jamelle Horne (6.8 ppg, 5.1 rpg) in the frontcourt. Two New Yorkers 5-11 Lamont Jones and 6-6 swingman Kevin Parrom could bring a whole new dimension to the Cats' game. The new look Wildcats get their first real test in Maui, where they open with Wisconsin and could face old tournament rival Gonzaga in their second game.

Oregon State (last NCAA: 1990) The Beavers edged toward respectability last year, claiming the CBI crown, beating Stanford in 3 or 4 meetings (the one loss was arguably the most crucial, in the Pac-10 tourney), and sweeping Cal (though they did provide the Ducks one of their two league triumphs). When I saw them play in their first game of last season, I thought it would be a very long season for Craig Robinson's squad. But they grew throughout the year and now they'll try to take the next step nationally. Point guard Rickey Claitt (7.4 ppg, 2.5 apg) is gone, but point center Roeland Schaftenaar (10.5 ppg. 4 rpg, 3.3 apg) is back. So is leading scorer Calvin Haynes (13 ppg, 3 rpg) and the Tarver brothers, starting PG Josh (3.9 ppg. 1.5 apg) and Seth (8 ppg, 5.4 rpg). The newcomers are a promising group as well. They include two Aussie forwards, Angus Brandt and Rhys Murphy, 6-7 forward Joe Burton, and guards Jared Cunningham and Roberto Nelson. Richmond transfer Chris Richard is also eligible this season, and he'll help bolster the backcourt. The Beavers will open their regular season in Lubbock as part of a four-team tournament. They'll challenge host Texas Tech for the title.

UCLA (last NCAA: 2009) A team that lost four of its top five leading scorers probably shouldn't be rated third in this league, but considering the roster changes and inexperience that hound teams four through 10, the Bruins sit here for the moment. Of course, Ben Howland's team could start slowly, as they've turned into the walking wounded during preseason practices. Forward Nikola Dragovic (9.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg) and G/F Michael Roll (6.7 ppg) are the Bruins two leading returning scorers, and Drew Gordon (3.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg) will undoubtedly get better with more time on the court. This season, Howland's freshmen, led by 6-9 swingman Tyler Honeycutt, 6-8 F Reeves Nelson, and 6-8 Mike Moser, are going to have to carry a lot of the load. The Bruins will anchor the 76 Classic, where they'll open with WCC contender Portland before facing a tough second opponent, Butler or Minnesota.

California (last NCAA: 2009) Mike Montgomery started to earn the trust of Cal fans last season, but if he can bring a Pac-10 crown to Berkeley, Golden Bear fans maybe, just maybe, able to stop seeing him as a Stanford guy. In a league decimated by player departures, Cal only lost only center Jordan Wilkes (4.7 ppg, 4 rpg). Their four leading scorers are back: Randle (18.3 ppg, 5 apg), Christopher (14.3 ppg, 2.1 apg), 6-6 F Theo Robertson (13.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.5 apg), and 6-8 F Jamal Boykin (9.6 ppg, 6.4 rpg). Montgomery's biggest challenge is getting more out of his bench, which is led by hardworking guard Jorge Gutierrez. He also needs to find a replacement for Wilkes. That could be 6-7 JC transfer Markhuri Sanders-Frison, but 6-10 Sudanese prospect Bak Bak could be an intriguing player for the Bears. Cal heads east for the Coaches vs. Cancer Classic, where they'll open with a Syracuse team who will have homecourt advantage at MSG. The winner of that tilt faces North Carolina or Ohio State. A trip to Lawrence to face Kansas also looms large.

Washington (last NCAA: 2009) Lorenzo Romar lost two key players off last year's Pac-10 champs, Brockman and G Justin Dentmon (14.5 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 spg), but he recruited well. 6-3 Tacoma product Abdul Gaddy should slide into Dentmon's spot on the roster. Gaddy will focus on the point, while Thomas will play more in the 2 slot. Inside, 6-7 Clarence Trent will support senior Quincy Pondexter (12.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg), and 6-9 junior Matthew Bryan-Amaning (6 ppg, 4 rpg) should increase his contributions. The main challenge for UW will be replacing Brockman's prowess on the boards. He averaged nearly 12 a game, and it will be no small feat to replace them. The Huskies host a four-team round-robin tournament to open the season, featuring Belmont, Portland State, and Wright State. They also play Georgetown in this year's edition of the Wooden Classic.

It was a tough choice, but I'm picking Washington to edge Cal in the league race this season. The Huskies will hold Pac-10's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. Tune back in then to see my first guess at the number of bids the conference could receive in what might be a down year. Now, to wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-Pac-10 team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-Pac-10 Team

Player of the Year: Jerome Randle, 5-10 G, Sr. (California)

Remainder of the Team
Patrick Christopher, 6-5 G, Sr. (California)
Quincy Pondexter, 6-6 F, Sr. (Washington)
Isaiah Thomas, 5-8 G, So. (Washington)
Nic Wise, 5-10 G, Sr. (Arizona)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the Pac-10 this season?

Arizona

8 votes

Arizona State

4 votes

California

28 votes

Oregon

2 votes

Oregon State

5 votes

Stanford

1 votes

UCLA

36 votes

USC

1 votes

Washington

363 votes

Washington State

4 votes

452 votes | Poll has closed

Thank You Ernie! But your Pac-10 Title is in Another Arena: Wazzu 62, Oregon 40

dvieira — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 19:18:22 -0000

General Observations

Boxscore

As much as I love the game of basketball, and as much as I love the Oregon Ducks, I am so happy the season is over. In a lot of ways, the game against Washington State summed up all of the feelings I've had about the team this year. Inexperience, turnovers and mental mistakes plagued us through the entire game. We did some things right but we did a lot of things like we have all year. Washington State was the worst possible team for us to play in the first round matchup-wise and not only did they kill us on the court, they just happened to be ending the season playing some of their best basketball. A recipe for a first-round exit. Great. Oregon never led in the game, and even though they made some good runs, they couldn't put together a consistent effort to stay in the game. Here are some thoughts from Ernie....

Offensively we were completely out of sync. We turned the ball over way too much. We couldn't score inside. We weren't scoring outside. TP was about the only guy on the floor getting anything done. So many missed layups and scoring opportunities. More so, so many basketball plays on the floor that are there to be made that we're not making right now. With a team that plays defensive like they play, you've got to make basketball plays. We left a lot of plays out on the floor.

A lot of the "basketball plays" Ernie is referring to are hustle and muscle plays from the guys. Going for rebounds was a big factor in the game as the guys were losing battles for the loose balls. Washington State was winning almost all the battles, not just physically but understanding what to do in the exact situation and reacting. Oregon still, even at this late part of the season, isn't reacting to the ball. Too much thinking out there, not enough playing basketball. The Cougars just play solid defense and don't make too many mistakes. When they do make mistakes, you have to capitalize on them and we just didn't do that.

Ernie on the off-season

We've got a grueling, grueling, grueling Spring and off-season coming this way with this group because we got a LOT of work to do...LOT of work to do.

You get the distinct impression that the off-season road is going to be pretty long for Oregon. Not just for players, but coaches as well. Ernie didn't sugarcoat the issue at all. The team will get a week or two off for finals and rest from the long season. After that, back to work fixing the issues from this season. Ernie implied that they knew a lot of the issues coming into the season. That fact doesn't surprise me as much as why it wasn't publicized more. By whatever force, most fans were led to believe that we would be "ok" and at least be middle of the Pac-10. I'm not sure if this was a bad job of setting expectations by Ernie and crew or whether the media got out of hand in their predictions. Ernie hangs his hat on "winning in the off-season" so hopefully the summer will prove to be a winner for Oregon.

On bringing in a strength and conditioning coach

Now we have an opportunity to change Josh Crittle's body even more so. Michael Dunigan, when he takes off his shirt you probably laugh because he doesn't have any muscle there, any bulk there. We got a chance now to put some muscle, put some bulk on him. Garret needs bulk, Drew Wiley needs bulk. Major bulk on Matt Humphrey(s). Those guys have to get size now, they have to get bigger, they have to get stronger.

When I heard Ernie talking about changing Crittle's body, all I could think of was this. So many plays this year break down to not having the size and muscle to execute. Having the size to go up underneath and get a foul or a bucket without getting the ball stripped will save us 10-15 points a game if not more. I'm not sure why Ernie insists on calling Matt Humphrey, Matt Humphreys but he does it every interview. To be honest, I wouldn't mind having more than one if it meant we had his energy, defense and hot shooting ability.

This is a terrible way to end the season for those guys but as TP did a great job of in the locker room says "You know, my senior year is NOT going to be like this and it starts with the off-season" and it really does. It starts with Joevan, LeKendric and TP. They've got to do a nice job of leading this team, but at the same time we have 3 great players coming in the door that are chomping at the bit just to get in the door. Even those three guys, I told them right now. There is nobody that is protected in terms of a scholarship, in terms of "I've got my scholarship so I'm going to be a starter this year". No no no no no. You have your scholarship and you're going to have to earn your opportunity to get out there on that floor again. TP being the exception to that.

A little competition doesn't hurt. With the recruits coming in next season, it serves us well by pushing the existing guys on the team. Ernie also alluded to the new recruits being able to contribute more right away, not out of necessity, but of luxury. I'm encouraged by what Ernie is saying. He's telling us the right things and seems to understand the gravity of the situation.

Stat of the game: 20 points for Tajuan Porter, 20 points for the rest of the team

Some more interesting facts about the game, Taylor Rochestie was 1 of 5 from the field with 4 points in the game. TP did an awesome job defending him the entire game. His 6 assists was double what the entire Oregon team had for the game. The Ducks had no answer for Aron Baynes. 7 of 8 from the field, 6 for 6 from the line for 20 points. Josh Crittle did not have a good game at all. 3 points, 5 turnovers. Catron seems to have hit some sort of wall. Another tough game for him going 2 of 6 from the field with 3 turnovers.

And just to prove who won the poll from before, if Wazzu only dresses Casto, Forrest, Baynes and Rochestie in the game, the Cougars still win 48-40.

Trojan Horse Plot Discovered, Basketball Team Whipped as Punishment: Oregon 66, USC 80

dvieira — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 19:45:11 -0000

The Ducks had their chances throughout the game but just couldn't keep it together long enough to get by the Trojans down in Southern California. Oregon was down 12 to the Trojans with about 6 minutes to go in the first half and came storming back to go into halftime only down 1. When the Trojans broke out to a big lead in the second half, the Ducks went on a run to cut the lead to 2. Then, the wheels fell off the cart and the bigger, more experienced USC squad took over the game and never looked back. We just couldn't make buckets when we needed to. Our shooting percentage was even lower than our season average, coming in at 37 percent. When you factor in USC shooting nearly 60 percent for the game from the field, you won't win many basketball games that way. Here are some thoughts from Ernie.

I thought in the first half we got in a hole and did a great job in coming back and even in the second half. We got in a hole, down 10-11 we did a great job of coming back again. You are sitting there 66-64 with the ball in your hand and I think they outscored us 14-0 from that stretch on.

This was heartbreaking to listen to. After the first half comeback, you really got the sense that we were going to do it again, just like the OSU game at Mac Court. All the pieces were in place. We were playing good defense, shutting down the backdoor plays and making shots. Then, what has happened so many times this year...we have a few turnovers, they get some easy buckets and they are up 4 and 6 and 8 points. We couldn't recover from that, not a third time.

There's not a better offense I can give you than a 2 foot layup with a guy on your back. You've got to be able to score or get fouled in there and it is a strength thing. It's explosiveness, it's taking a hit from a physical guy when the ref's not going to call a foul and the ball's in your hand trying to score. That's a process you have to go through. I've seen it before. I'm looking at their guys saying, you know, when they were freshman, they couldn't finish like this and I've got freshman that just have a hard time finishing around the bucket.

Perhaps a little frustration coming out of Ernie here but after the season we've had, I'm not surprised this is bubbling up. The team felt like it was getting worked over like a jock at a Star Trek Convention. Lots of non-calls by the refs, elbows, pushing, it was a hard-nosed game. Oregon just got worn down physically and you could tell at the end of the game when movement all but stopped and the team started watching an exhausted Tajuan Porter try to make something happen. You just won't get good results going in that direction. That's not how you made your previous comebacks and it won't help you here. Ernie goes into it a little in the next quote.

Did the team run out of energy at the end of the game?

Well, that's not the case in this game. I felt like it shouldn't have been a situation of energy because our bench is deep enough. I call it a toughness thing, a mental toughness thing. The energy was ok, but just the mental toughness to make plays. They had men at times with muscles and bigger guys, stronger and they came at us and backed us down. We didn't make a play right there. That's not an energy thing, that's a physical thing right there.

Stat of the game: Over half of the USC points were in the paint

I think the Trojans saw something in the Ducks game against OSU that they exploited in this game. We are not good at depending the backdoor play. Oregon State was able to execute that play, almost at will, against our bigs down low. We were able to counter it later with athleticism. Against USC, we just couldn't get it done because of the physical nature of play. On a positive note, Crittle had a very nice game, nearly grabbing his first double-double with 10 points and 8 rebounds. TP had a solid 20 points but 7 turnovers. I miss the old Catron. He was 0-6 with 3 rebounds in 19 minutes.

Cautious Optimism Going Into Civil War Men's Hoops

dvieira — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 04:18:44 -0000

Mac Court will see it's final men's hoops game for the 2008-09 season as Oregon hosts the Oregon State Beavers this Sunday. At stake for the Beavers is a potential trip to the postseason to mark a special season under coach Craig Robinson. For the Ducks, the team is playing for pride. Oregon already has the winless monkey off their backs with a big win against Stanford last week but have they really turned the corner as a team? Was the win against the Cardinal just a lucky win against a team that has no Pac-10 road wins this season?

As I sit back and really think about the game this Sunday, my mind drifts back to how I felt at the Kansas State game earlier in the year. We were able to pull out a close victory in the final minutes of that game, not unlike the Stanford game. The vibe surrounding the team was very different back then. Most people had a sense of cautious optimism. We easily wrote off early season losses as "bumps in the road" or "losses against good teams". Yes, we were young but there was something there talent-wise and we thought that would get us through. Little did we know what would come following our non-conference schedule. The win against Kansas State gave us hope! After all, they were good last year and were supposed to be good this year despite the loss of Michael Beasley. They are firmly on the bubble at the end of the season with a 20-9 record. How different our paths would take.

The Pac-10 season starts and things go from bad to worse quickly. Game after game, practice after practice, interview after interview, the Ducks seem to be spiraling down into the abyss with no end in sight. The losses pile up, the veterens get benched, Ernie gets ejected, the team hitting 0-18 in conference seems like a formality. All we have to do is play it out, blame Ernie for being a horrible coach, hope he gets fired in favor of (insert Mark Few or any other flavor of the month coach here) and we move on to the new arena in a couple years. Oregon basketball hits rock bottom.

Stanford comes to town. Just like that win against Kansas State a few months ago, Oregon looked like a team. For the first time in an eternity, the passes were crisp, the defense was solid, the team was trying their best for an entire game. They didn't hit all of their shots and still had mental breakdowns but suddenly the team was a team to be proud of. No, not because they won but because you could see them finally putting aside individual aspirations and buying into the team concept. TP, known his entire career as being a spot-up shooter, became almost point guard-like. He spread the ball around, made crisp passes and didn't try to force bad possessions. Ernie and the coaching staff came up with a plan to exploit mismatches under the basket and Crittle and Dunigan took advantage, following the gameplan the entire game. Catron looked like Catron from last year, not the turnover-prone player he has become this year. Something clicked. The team seemed to come together for one game. The gameplan was good, Ernie and staff made the right moves during the game, we saw a glimpse of what this team could do in the years to come.

With Oregon State coming to town, I'm finding it really hard not to be excited about the game. We've had a horrible season record-wise but we've also seen a team grow up right before our very eyes. Sunday marks an important opportunity for Ernie and crew to help make a statement at the end of the year. To end the season with 2 wins at home may not seem like a big deal for those with high expectations but having been there every step of the way, I can't help but smile at the prospect. Not at the idea of hurting an Oregon State postseason chance (although the idea of Rose Bowl parallels are appealing), more so at the work and effort the players and coaches have put in to make something new. It took till the end of the season but we may be seeing the first signs of the Oregon Ducks men's basketball "team". For me, that cautious optimism that was there after the Kansas State game has returned after a long, dark sabatical.

Poll

Does Oregon Leave Mac Court with a Victory on Sunday?

We will have a 2-game winning streak!

93 votes

Getting swept is never fun

21 votes

I'm going with Jshufelt's Magic Eight Ball

11 votes

125 votes | Poll has closed

Recap: Better Effort, Same Result - Oregon @ Cal

dvieira — Sun, 25 Jan 2009 07:50:39 -0000

I admit it, I was going into the Cal game with very low expectations. I wanted a win, I always want a win but I would take some solice in a reasonable effort. I got that but that was all I got. With Oregon State's win over Cal the previous Thursday, I thought we were going to get destroyed. We hung in there and even though we didn't get the win, there were some positives to build on.

Ernie started the game with a unique lineup: Odia, Catron, Longmire, Porter and Brown. No one over 6'6", no Crittle or Dunigan. Amazingly enough, it worked pretty well. There was more energy in the team to start the game than I had seen all season. When Dunigan and Crittle did come in, they generally came in as a tandem, creating a "big" look. I liked the contrast and it seemed like the team handled it better.

The fast guys could play fast, the slow guys played slow, and each group was having some success in those elements of the game. We still had some bad turnovers, we still had some bonehead plays, but for the first time all season, those bad plays felt few and far between. They were spread out amongst the game and didn't come in bunches. The only times where the team seemed out of sync from a motion standpoint was when the fast team tried to play slow or the slow team started to play fast. Invariably you would see a turnover come out of it.

Even in the loss, the team showed improvement. Better yet, I think Ernie showed that he does have a grasp on the team and by changing his rotations up this game, he found some formulas that worked well, perhaps well enough to stick with for awhile. TP looked like the old TP in spurts...sometimes good, sometimes bad. He was nailing some good shots but was also dribbling for 30+ seconds of the shot clock. Honestly, I was almost happy to see it. It felt like weeks since I had even seen TP involved in a game, let alone actually hogging the ball. Catron did a great job under the basket, working hard. The entire team played excellent defense in parts, particularly when Cal was running out-of-bounds plays. Oregon got several steals off the inbound pass by forcing bad passes.

Are we still bad? Yep, we are still bad and I'm not sure we are going to win any games. You can't count the Beavs as gimmie games anymore and I don't think we are going to win in Corvallis next week. What I do like is the effort that is being shown and that the game seems to finally be slowing down for the freshmen on the team. We are going to continue to give up easy buckets, miss layups and have an awful field-goal percentage but you can recognize that the team knows the issues and the entire team (Ernie included) is working on them.

We may not win any games this year, but I certainly feel better in this loss than I have in all of our games (wins included) this year. For those that didn't see the game, I recommend watching a replay. You may see some hope in it.

Recap: At Least We Don't Wear Purple...

dvieira — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 18:36:50 -0000

I'm not sure how much more we can say the same things about this year's team. Turnovers just absolutely kill us. I know we have a young team but at some point you have to take care of the ball and not beat yourselves and that is what Oregon is doing at this point in the season. No one has stepped up to be "the guy". If it isn't going to be TP or Catron (and it looks more and more like it won't), who will step up as the team leader on the floor? Who is going to step up and say "no more"?

Some thoughts on the game

Kam, Garrett and Tajuan combined for 15 turnovers and let the Washington starting backcourt go for 45 points. Not getting it done
Dunigan actually stayed in a game without getting into foul trouble and you can tell what a difference it makes to have him out on the floor. He was blocking shots, being disruptive but is still a year away from being a monster.
My personal opinion on Ernie is starting to shift from "solidly keep" to "indiferent" on the 'Need a new Coach' scale, not for the record this year, but being put in this position to suck so bad. We should be striving to reload, not rebuild.
Mac Court not sold out for the Huskies. How far have we fallen?
The shots are there to be made. At some point, the team has to make open shots. It isn't Ernie's fault that we can't make layups or open shots or free throws. The offense is putting players in position to knock things down. It just isn't happening.

"Grumpy Ernie smells something... it might be Ducks Men's Basketball"

via cache.daylife.com

Preview: Ducks Hope to Huck Fuskies, Pick Up First Pac-10 Win

PaulSF — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 00:30:08 -0000

The Oregon men's basketball squad continues its search for a conference win tonight at Mac Court against the Washington Huskies (11-4 overall, 2-1 Pac-10). Tipoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. PST. The Ducks (6-10, 0-4) are coming off a rough weekend in the desert, losing handly to both Arizona and Arizona State. The Wildcats picked up their first Pac-10 win, prevailing 67-52 last Thursday, followed by a 78-56 blowout by the Sun Devils in Tempe two nights later.

But the biggest headline to emerge from the weekend had little to do with basketball: a confrontation between senior guard Tajuan Porter and head coach Ernie Kent. The incident resulted in Porter sitting out the entire second half of the ASU game, but the flaring tempers are also a sign that the Ducks aren't happy with how the season is going. Although Kent and Porter have settled their differences, one thing is crystal clear: Oregon needs a win. Badly.

And who better to get that win from than rival Washington? The Huskies are coming off a brutal triple-overtime home loss to Cal, bringing their nine-game winning streak to a screeching halt. In football, when a team follows a tough loss or a big win with a match-up against an underachieving, hungry team in search of their first win, we call it a trap game. Well, Ducks fans, I'm delighted to inform you that Oregon is Washington's first trap game of the season. Whether Oregon can battle back from last week's turmoil remains to be seen, but a home game against a reeling rival isn't a bad situation to be in. It doesn't hurt that Oregon will hold a pre-game ceremony for former "Kamikaze Kid" Greg Ballard , who was inducted into the Pac-10 Hall of Honor this week.

Oregon's Keys to the Game

Rebound. Rebound. Rebound.
So, yeah, I know rebounding is, like, the most cliche "key" to a game, but if there were ever a time to include it on this list, it's against Washington. The Huskies, led by senior Jon Brockman's conference leading 13.3 rebounds per game, are tops in the Pac-10 in rebounding margin (+9.3) and boards per game (40.3). The Ducks are seventh and sixth in those categories, respectively. In other words, PUT A BODY ON SOMEONE!
Get It Goin' Early
According to the U of O athletic department's press release, Oregon is 3-0 this season when shooting over 50% and 4-1 when shooting better from the field than its opponent. Go figure. But a more interesting fact from the same release is this: The Ducks are 5-1 this year when leading at the half. I understand these aren't groundbreaking numbers, but the halftime-lead stat certainly points to Oregon's inexperience. Because the Ducks aren't battle-tested, taking an early lead is even more crucial. In addition, getting Joevan Catron involved in the offense early will help to develop the inside game, opening up the outside for our sharpshooters to roam.
Contain Isaiah Thomas
No, I'm not talking about the former NBA star, I'm talking about the Huskies' freshman phenom, who's averaging 19.7 and 3.7 assists per game. The obvious Washington player to watch is Brockman, but we don't have an answer for him at this point, so we'll need to cut our losses and focus on slowing down Thomas. If we can keep him well under his averages, it should take the Huskies out of their game.

GO DUCKS!