SB Nation - Ronald Steele

BtB 2009-10 Southeastern Conference Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:27:31 -0000

During the two weeks before Selection Sunday last March, I frequently heard these words (or something close) in conversation, "The SEC is going to get more than two or three bids to the Tourney. How can we not? We're the SEC." Of course, it took another surprising run through the SEC Tournament by a team nicknamed the Bulldogs to keep the Southeastern Conference from becoming (gasp) a two bid league. But Mississippi State became the league's second straight surprise auto bid winner. However, just like Georgia in 2008, the boys from Starkville also lost in the first round after getting a low seed.

But it's not like the two SEC teams who earned at-large bids did much better. Ninth seeded Tennessee fell to Oklahoma State in a tight first round contest, while eighth seeded LSU reached round two, where they were outclassed by North Carolina. Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina all ended up in the NIT, where none of the four managed to make it to New York. Vanderbilt won 19 games and didn't even get a postseason bid. All in all, it was a disappointing 2008-09 for a conference used to postseason success.

The good news for the SEC is that the league should be far better this year, thanks to a couple of major coaching hires (as explained in my Coaching Carousel column) and an infusion of new talent (some of whom are listed in my All-Transfer and All-Freshman team columns). But there's a lot more going on in the league than what happened in Lexington and Tuscaloosa this offseason, which I'll explain after the jump.

Let's first take a look at last season's SEC standings.

Southeastern Conference Standings

(updated 3.25.2009 at 10:42 PM EDT)

East	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
South Carolina Gamecocks	10	6	21	10
Tennessee Volunteers	10	6	21	13
Florida Gators	9	7	25	11
Kentucky Wildcats	8	8	22	14
Vanderbilt Commodores	8	8	19	12
Georgia Bulldogs	3	13	12	20

West	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
LSU Tigers	13	3	27	8
Auburn Tigers	10	6	24	12
Mississippi St. Bulldogs	9	7	23	13
Alabama Crimson Tide	7	9	18	14
Mississippi Rebels	7	9	16	15
Arkansas Razorbacks	2	14	14	16

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a school's name appears in red, that's a link to its SBNation site. You can go there for more detailed analysis throughout the season.

West Division

Auburn (last NCAA: 2003) The Tigers fell to Baylor in the NIT quarterfinals last season, a disappointing end to a good season that could've ended in the NCAA Tournament with a marquee win or two. It's going to take a lot for Jeff Lebo's team to reach that level of success this season. Even with the graduation of Rasheem Barrett (9.9 ppg) and Quantez Robertson (6.0 ppg, 3.2 apg), DeWayne Reed (13.2 ppg, 3.7 apg) and Tay Waller (12.1 ppg) anchor a solid backcourt that will give the opposition fits. However, Korvotney Barber and his contributions of nearly 13 points and 10 rebounds a game will be severely missed in the frontcourt, even in Lebo's guard-oriented system. Seniors Brendan Knox and Johnnie Lett will have to step up to fill the void left by Barber's departure, and freshmen Rob Chubb and Ty Armstrong can expect to see playing time as well. Junior college transfer Kenny Gabriel should also see significant time, as he can be a true inside/outside threat for Auburn.

LSU (last NCAA: 2009) Expect the Tigers, last year's SEC regular season champs, to take a step back after the loss of three key starters. F Marcus Thornton and his 21 points per game are gone, so is C Chris Johnson, and the team's heart and soul, PG Garrett Temple. However, LSU still has Tasmin Mitchell, who averaged 16.3 points and 7.2 rebounds last season, while spending time at both small forward and power forward. Guard Bo Spencer is the other returning starter. He's a good shooter (averaging 11.4 ppg while shooting 40% from beyond the arc), but is coming off wrist surgery. Beyond those two, head coach Trent Johnson has his work cut out for him, as none of the other returnees averaged more than 2 points per contest. Expect the newcomers, like G Aaron Dotson (coming off a patellar tendon injury) and Fs Eddie Ludwig and Garrett Green (a medical redshirt last year), to see significant time during the rebuilding process.

Arkansas (last NCAA: 2008) It hasn't been the greatest of offseasons in Fayetteville, where head coach John Pelphrey will suspend at least one player after an offseason rape investigation that resulted in no charges. The possibility of suspensions will make the Razorbacks task of recovering from last season a bit more difficult. The Hogs were in full rebuilding mode last year, but managed to get off to a 12-1 start, featuring wins over regional rivals Oklahoma and Texas. It didn't last, and Arkansas finished bottom of the SEC West with a ghastly 2-14 record. This season, the Razorbacks will again roll out a three-guard lineup in their search for more consistency. That quest starts at point guard, where sophomore Courtney Fortson did a great job of distributing the ball (nearly 6 assists per game), while turning it over far too often (4.4 per game). Rotnei Clark led the nation's freshmen in three point shooting (39.3%), and Stefan Welsh contributed 11.5 oints per game. PF Michael Washington decided to stay in school, which means the Hogs keep their leading scorer (15.5) and conference-leading rebounder (9.8). The biggest reason Arkansas is this low is depth, with only six returning players from last season, Pelphrey will need a lot out of his newcomers to move up the SEC ladder.

Alabama (last NCAA: 2006) Bama alum Mark Gottfried resigned as head coach last January, when it was clear that the Tide would spend a third straight year outside of the NCAAs. Anthony Grant left a good gig at VCU to take the head job, and he's going to try to implement a more up-tempo style in Tuscaloosa. Alabama's biggest issue over the past few seasons has been inconsistent point guard play, especially with Ronald Steele's injuries and eventual departure from the program. Senior Mikhail Torrance (10 ppg, 2.3 apg) moved to the 1 slot after Steele left the program and performed well, though he's more of a natural shooting guard. As Grant implements his offense, watch for 5-9 Anthony Brock and Andrew Steele, Ronald's brother, to get time at the point, so Torrance can move over to his natural position. In the frontcourt, Grant has two 6-9 guys who will need to step it up. JaMychal Green had a decent freshman season, but will need to better his averages of 10.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg. Justin Knox, who averaged 5.7 ppg and 5.1 rpg, should be able to increase both those numbers with more time on the court.

Mississippi (last NCAA: 2002) Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy made headlines for all the wrong reasons last season, when he was arrested for allegedly assaulting a cab driver the night before the Rebels faced his former employer, Cincinnati, in the SEC/Big East Invitational. Things only got worse from there, as Miss lost All-SEC guard Chris Warren to a knee injury during that outing. Add in the fact that the Rebels had already lost Eniel Polynice and Trevor Gaskins to injuries, and it's amazing that they managed 16 wins last year. This season, all three guards are back, making the loss of Florida transfer David Huertas almost inconsequential. Zach Graham, the team's best three point shooter, is also back, giving the Rebels perhaps the best backcourt in the league. Kennedy's frontcourt isn't quite as strong. Sophomore Murphy Holloway will have to improve on his 8.4 points and 6.6 boards per game, while 6-8 freshman Reginald Bucker and 6-9 JC transfer DeAngelo Riley will have to contribute immediately. The fact the Rebels don't quite have the inside force to match Miss State's Varnado means they should finish behind their in-state rivals in the standings.

Mississippi State (last NCAA: 2009) Rick Stansbury recruited Renardo Sidney to provide some support for C Jarvis Varnado inside. However, it doesn't look like the NCAA is going to rule Sidney eligible. Stansbury also got a commitment from 7-2 Sudanese C John Riek, who was finally ruled eligible, but will have to sit out the first 9 games of the season. That means Varnado, who fell ill at one point this summer, will likely see some time as the lone big man on the court if Stansbury runs out a four-guard offense, as he did frequently last season. When you have guards like Dee Bost, Ravern Johnson, Barry Stewart, and Phil Turner who can shoot the three well, that offensive strategy isn't a bad idea. However, with the development of 6-8 Fs Kodi Augustus and Romero Osby (and Riek's eventual eligibility), you can expect to see Varnado get far more frontcourt help. Additionally, Varnado only needs 19 blocks to pass Shaquille O'Neal as the SEC's all-time leader in that category (though Shaq did it in fewer games).

East Division

Georgia (last NCAA: 2008) For some reason, Mark Fox decided to leave a Nevada program he (along with LSU head man Trent Johnson) made into a national name. Fox now replaces Dennis Felton at the helm of a Georgia program that has never fully recovered from the Jim Harrick era, which is now six years in the past. After the graduation of G/F Terrance Woodbury (14.0 ppg), Fox is left with only one double-digit scorer from last season. However, 6-9 F Howard Thompkins is a pretty good player to have on your roster. Thompkins averaged 12.6 points and 7.4 boards per game, and should be even better after an offseason spent on the USA's Under-19 World Championship-winning team. In the backcourt, Dustin Ware should start at point guard, as he averaged 7.2 points and 3.4 dimes per game in 2008-09. After that, Fox has a lot of decisions to make, and that means the Bulldogs will probably be rooted to the bottom of the SEC standings yet again.

South Carolina (last NCAA: 2004) In Darrin Horn's first year at the helm, the Gamecocks managed to tie Tennessee atop the SEC East. Even though they only lost guard Zam Fredrick and his 15.5 points per game, Carolina probably won't reach such heights this season. That's not to say that the Gamecocks won't manage to get back to the NCAAs, something they failed to do last year. Thanks to the return of G Devan Downey (19.8 ppg, 4.5 apg, SEC leading 89 steals) and F Dominique Archie (10.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), the Gamecocks still have some real star power in the lineup. Returning starters Mike Holmes (10.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Sam Muldrow (5.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) should provide even more help to Archie in the frontcourt this season, while JC transfer Johndre Jefferson will be expected to spend time at both small and power forward. In the backcourt, Evaldas Baniulis, after averaging a bit more than 6 points a game while shooting 48 percent from behind the arc, is expected to take a more active role in the offense with the graduation of Fredrick, as is 6-5 swingman Lakeem Jackson, a heralded recruit from Charlotte.

Florida (last NCAA: 2007) Has it really been over two years since the Gators last featured in an NCAA Tournament game? While the days of back-to-back championships may be in the rear-view mirror, Billy Donovan's latest group has the chance to finally get off the bubble. Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin will be eligible this season, and he'll slide into the center position. That will allow Alex Tyus to move back to his natural position, power forward, which will allow Dan Werner to move to small forward. Kenny Kadji should be better in his sophomore year as well, giving the Gators more of a presence inside. More consistency is expected out of swingman Chandler Parsons, whose performances alternate between brilliant and frustrating. In the backcourt, Erving Walker (10.1 ppg, 2.4 apg) will lead the offense after Nick Calathes' departure for Greece. Israeli newcomer Nimrod Tishman could also see time at the point if the NCAA rules him eligible. Impact freshman Kenny Boynton will start at shooting guard. He's expected to be the Gators new three-point threat, though he can also really drive to the hoop.

Vanderbilt (last NCAA: 2008) The Commodores sat at home last postseason, despite finishing the regular season with 7 wins in their last 10. Vandy shouldn't be so unlucky this season. Chemistry should be good, as head coach Kevin Stallings gave up a $100,000 raise so the team could take a scheduled trip to Australia, home country of star C A.J. Ogilvy. Ogilvy averaged 15.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, and those numbers should improve if he stays healthier this season. The 'Dores frontcourt boasts an international flavor beyond their Aussie star with Swede Jeffery Taylor (12.2 ppg. 6.2 rpg) a fixture at small forward, 6-9 Cameroonian PF Steve Tchiengang (3.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg) expected to spend more time in the 4 spot, and 6-11 Nigerian C Festus Ezeli (3.8 ppg. 2.6 rpg) expected to both backup and spend time on the floor with Ogilvy. 6-7 Andre Walker may also return to the starting lineup, after suffering an ACL tear early last season. The backcourt may be more US-centric, but it's still talented. Jermaine Beal (12.5 ppg, 3.2 apg) amd Brad Tinsley (11.0 ppg, 2.8 apg) will take turns running the offense, but 6-4 John Jenkins, the USA's highest scoring high school player last season, will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his inside/outside game. Even if he only manages 25 percent of his senior year average, Jenkins should provide plenty of scoring punch for the Commodores.

Tennessee (last NCAA: 2009) The Volunteers return all five starters in their quest to improve on last year's NCAA first round exit. The best news for the Vols this offseason was Tyler Smith's decision to skip the NBA Draft and return for his senior season. Bruce Pearl is glad he doesn't have to replace Smith's 17.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Wayne Chism (13.7 ppg, 8 rpg) will continue to be a force inside, while 6-10 C Brian Williams will need to improve his scoring (5 ppg) to match his rebounding (5.6 rpg). Bobby Maze (8.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) will run the offense, while J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson, who were forces at both ends of the floor last year, are expected to continue their strong two-way play. Cameron Tatum (7.6 ppg) and Renaldo Woolridge, son of former NBA star Orlando, are going to be Bruce Pearl's key swingmen this season.. Woolridge, who only managed 2.6 points in a little more than 8 minutes a contest, should be improved in his sophomore season. The Vols only personnel loss is a sad story, as Nigerian F Emmanuel Negedu, as he suffered a sudden cardiac arrest last month.

Kentucky (last NCAA: 2008) During my Season Preview series, I've written a fair amount about John Calipari's arrival in Lexington and his stellar recruiting class. Patrick Patterson (17.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg) will lead a strong frontcourt that already features senior Perry Stevenson (7.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg), and will be bolstered by the arrival of the 6-11 DeMarcus Cousins and 6-10 Daniel Orton, two highly coveted recruits. And the backcourt will feature the most highly coveted recruit for this season, 6-4 point guard John Wall, who will be responsible for running Calipari's dribble drive offense. If the chemistry works, the Wildcats will quickly be on their way, and the blue half of the Commonwealth will quickly forget about the Gillispie period.

I'm picking Kentucky to win the overall SEC title, so they'll take the league's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-SEC team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-SEC Team

Player of the Year: Tyler Smith, 6-7 F, Sr. (Tennessee)

Remainder of the Team
Devan Downey, 5-9 G, Sr. (South Carolina)
Tasmin Mitchell, 6-7 F, Sr. (LSU)
Patrick Patterson, 6-9 F, Jr. (Kentucky)
Jarvis Varnado, 6-9 F/C, Sr. (Mississippi State)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the SEC this season?

Alabama

9 votes

Arkansas

9 votes

Auburn

3 votes

Florida

14 votes

Georgia

2 votes

Kentucky

213 votes

LSU

3 votes

Ole Miss

7 votes

Mississippi State

57 votes

South Carolina

5 votes

Tennessee

68 votes

Vanderbilt

17 votes

407 votes | Poll has closed

Kentucky at Alabama: Open Game Thread

Truzenzuzex — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 19:30:09 -0000

This is the official A Sea of Blue open game thread for the Kentucky Wildcats @ Alabama Crimson Tide basketball game this afternoon at the Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa , January 24th @ 3:00 PM.

Particulars of this game are as follows:

TV: Raycom
Gametracker live stats
Audio (Requires Microsoft Silverlight)
Radio
Yahoo! Video
Game preview

So it really comes down to this game. Win and we're most likely in. Lose, and we don't get to leave purgatory.

The last several weeks, UK fans have craved, some desperately, to get back into the top 25 national rankings. UK's absence from that poll has been a long one, and getting over the hump to get back in has been a major challenge this year because of the relative weakness of the SEC and one very bad loss to VMI at home.

The Crimson Tide are talent-rich but underachieving, as they have been much of the time under coach Mark Gottfried. This year, Gottfried is really on the hot seat, especially after the unexpected and enigmatic departure of star point guard Ronald Steele. Mikhail Torrance has taken over the point from the now-departed Steele. This team is a mix of the young and the experienced, and has tremendous athletic talent.

Things Kentucky needs to do well to win:

Keep the pace high. Kentucky is comfortable at a much higher pace than the Crimson Tide, and Alabama has a solid half-court defense. Points in transition will be available if the 'Cats can run.
Take care of the defensive glass. One of the things Alabama does very well is offensive rebound.
Force Alabama to run half-court offense. UK is one of the best in the country in half-court offense, and Alabama shoots the ball poorly. If UK challenges every shot, the Tide will most likely struggle.

Things that will make it hard for Kentucky to win:

Taking a bunch of challenged shots. Alabama is very solid defensively, and if UK can't get out in transition, they must be efficient on offense.
Fail to get back in transition. Alabama doesn't run that much, but they are tough when they do.
Let Alabama get off to a hot start. Nothing endangers a Wildcat victory more than letting the Tide find a rhythm early.

Alabama doesn't hustle as much as Auburn, and they won't out-quick UK. But they do have big, long, powerful players who can do what Auburn could not -- mix it up inside with the 'Cats, and score in the paint. This bears repeating -- Alabama is very talented, arguably more talented than Kentucky top to bottom. They may be underachieving now, but that could stop at any time, and if the 'Cats give them an early infusion of hope, it could be today -- and we don't want that.

Go, Cats!

UK Basketball: Alabama, UK's Next Five, and a Congratulations

Ken Howlett — Sat, 24 Jan 2009 04:51:52 -0000

Alabama

As UK rolls into Tuscaloosa for a Saturday afternoon (3:00 pm EST) tilt with the Crimson Tide (12-6, 2-2), the 'Cats will be looking for win number five in a row overall, and win number three-in-a-row on the road. With the Tide regrettably losing one-time, do-everything point guard Ronald Steele, along with Jarmereo Davidson and Richard Hendrix (over the last two years), they don't seem to be the threat they once were. But of course, it's a road game, and anything can happen when traveling in the SEC.

Let's take a look at the key Tide personnel and how Alabama stacks up statistically within the SEC:

Tide Personnel

Alonzo Gee: 6'6", 219 lb senior guard -- Gee shoots 43.5% from the field, and only 29.4% from the 3-point line. He averages an impressive 7.6 rebounds per game to go along with his 14.3 points per game

Gee is clearly 'Bama's best player, and most athletic performer, but in his last two games versus UK, he's a combined 2-14 from the field, 0-4 from beyond the arc, and has scored seven total points, to go along with four rebounds (in 43 total minutes played). I'm sure he'll be looking to make up for those sub-par performances Saturday.

Senario Hillman: 6'1", 192 lb sophomore guard -- Hillman shoots 44.1% from the floor, and only 17.6% from the 3-point line. He also averages 3.2 rebounds per game and 13.6 points per game.

Hillman should see extensive time at the point Saturday. Last year versus UK he played only eight minutes, making 1-1 shots for two points.

Mikhail Torrance: 6'5", 210 lb junior guard -- Torrance is 'Bama's best 3-point shooter at 42.9% (12-28), and he shoots 52.4% overall. He averages 9.3 points per game in only 16 minutes played per game.

Torrance, like Hillman, played only eight minutes last year versus UK, going 1-2 from the field and 1-2 from the free throw line, for three points.

JaMychal Green: 6'9", 220 lb freshman forward -- The one-time UK target is shooting 53.0% from the field, and he averages 6.9 rebounds per game. He's the Tides fourth leading scorer at 8.8 points per game.

Justin Knox: 6'9", 240 lb sophomore forward -- Knox shoots 54.2% from the field. He also averages 5.2 rebounds per game and 5.7 points per game.

Last year as a freshman Knox played 20 minutes versus UK. He scored six points, going 3-6 from the field, to go along with three rebounds.

Statistical Tide

Scoring -- 72.7 points per game (8th in the SEC)

Scoring Defense -- 66.4 ppg (8th)

Field Goal % -- 44.6 (8th)

Field Goal % Defense -- 40.1 (6th)

3-Point % -- 29.7 (12th)

3-point % Defense -- 31.5 (2nd)

Rebounding Margin -- +3.1 (6th)

Blocks per game -- 4.7 (4th)

Assists per game -- 10.4 (12th)

Steals per game -- 7.3 (7th)

Assist/TO Ratio -- .77- 188 assists/244 turnovers (12th)

Alabama has made 57 more free throws than their opponents.
'Bama is -7 for the season in offensive rebounds. 'Bama has missed 592 shots and gathered in 249 offensive rebounds (42.1%). Their opponents have missed 650 shots and snagged 256 offensive rebounds (39.4%).
Alonzo Gee and JaMychal Green both average 3.1 offensive rebounds per game.
Brandon Hollinger leads Alabama with 48 3-pointers taken. He's shooting a woeful 16.7% from behind the arc.
'Bama shoots 69.2% from the free throw line. Last year, 'Bama lost eight games by seven points or less, while shooting only 62% from the free throw line.
Tide head coach Mark Gottfried plays nine players at least 11 minutes per game.
Ronald Steele's brother, Andrew, is a freshman guard for Alabama.
UK has won six of the last eight games versus Alabama.

New York-Minute Analysis

Alabama will want to pound the ball into the post, offensively, and use their athleticism and length to pressure UK's lead guards into mistakes, defensively. UK must be mindful of the foul situation regarding their big men, Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson. If both of those players get into foul trouble, UK could be in trouble.

Gottfried will probably have Gee guard Meeks for a large portion of the game. Gee's size advantage, along with his quickness could pose problems for Meeks. If that scenario comes to fruition, Meeks' teammates will be setting all manner of screens to get "Rhythm" as many open looks as possible.

Frankly, this is a game UK should win if they harbor any hopes of making noise on a national level, and unless 'Bama plays their best game of the year, a Kentucky victory should be in the offing.

The seat of Gottfried's pants are warming up, and I don't see Saturday's game doing anything to cool-off the heat.

Alabama Results

Tide wins of note: (N) St. Josephs (10-8) 54-48, (H) Chattanooga (9-10) 82-63, (H) Yale (7-9) 66-63, (H) Georgia Tech (9-9) 88-77, (H) LSU (15-3) 65-59, (H) Mississippi (10-8) 76-73.

Tide losses: (H) Mercer (10-8) 72-69, (N) Oregon (6-13) 92-69, (H) Texas A&M (15-4) 86-78, (A) Clemson (16-2) 66-59, (A) Mississippi St. (13-6) 83-74, (A) Auburn (11-7) 85-71.

The Importance of the Next Five

With UK's Saturday tilt in Tuscaloosa versus Alabama, the University of Kentucky basketball team finds themselves in an excellent position to solidify a first place finish in the SEC East. No, they can't wrap-up the East with a win over the Tide, but the 'Bama game is the first in a series of five games that UK needs to win in order to set-up the best possible East-clinching scenario.

After Alabama comes a road game @ Ole Miss (10-8, 1-3), and home games against South Carolina (13-4, 2-2), Mississippi State (13-6, 3-1), and Florida (16-3, 3-1). UK will be rightfully favored in all of those contests, but the next seven games will provide UK with a much sterner test: @Arkansas (12-4, 0-3) and Vanderbilt (12-6, 1-3), followed by a home game versus Tennessee (12-5, 3-1), @ South Carolina, at home against LSU (15-3, 3-1) and Georgia (9-9, 0-3), and the regular season finale @ Florida.

If UK can find a way to win five of the final seven games, I feel sure that a 14-2 league mark will be sufficient to grab the SEC East title, as well as the overall SEC regular season championship, especially considering every other SEC team has at least one league loss. And in a year when the SEC is admittedly not what it usually is in terms of experienced talent, a two loss SEC season should be enough to impress the Selection Committee into granting UK a sub-four seed in the NCAA Tournament, as long as the 'Cats don't suffer an opening game loss in the SEC Tournament

Congratulations ...

... to Kentucky head coach Billy Gillispie; Coach G has now coached 50 games for the Wildcats. And after a slow start to his tenure, he has UK firmly on the road back to prominence. His record stands at 33-17 (66.7%), which some may find miraculous considering the injuries and defections the UK coach has endured. A victory at Alabama today would represent UK's best record after 20 games since the '05-'06 season.

With the abundance of top tier recruits heading to Lexington, fans certainly have reason to be optimistic with the direction of The Program, and content with the job Gillispie is doing.

So Billy, you can't make us all happy all of the time, but you've most of us happy, most of the time.

Keep up the great work!

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats, beat the Tide!

Maui Invitational Preview

GhostofBigRoy — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 08:49:34 -0000

The Tournament

The 25th EA Sports Maui Invitational, a three day, eight team tournament annually played Thanksgiving week and featuring some of the best teams in college basketball, is one of the most hotly-contested and prestigious of the preseason college basketball tournaments (really only the Pre Season NIT at Madison Square Garden compares). That trend will continue this season, as the pool contains North Carolina and Notre Dame, as well as the Longhorns. The other trend that will no doubt continue is the habit of participating coaches donning horrifically ugly Hawaiian shirts for the games. Just wanted to warn you so you can prepare your eyes for the visual assault they will experience.

The Teams

North Carolina - There aren't many teams on the number one ranked Tar Heels' schedule expected to challenge the ACC behemoth. North Carolina returns their top six scorers from last year's Final Four squad (three of whom returned to school after testing the NBA draft: Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, and Tywon Lawson) and will cause major problems for every opponent with their athleticism and depth, becoming nearly unstoppable when allowed to push the tempo. The only early season concerns surround the team's health, most notably 2007 National Player of the Year Tyler Hansbrough, who missed the first two games of the season with a stress reaction in his right shin. Don't believe rumors that Hansbrough injured the shin from jumping into too many pools at frat houses. "Psycho T" returned Friday night against Cal-Santa Barbara, scoring 13 points in 25 minutes on 2-8 shooting from the field. The injury may limit Hansbrough's minutes, particularly if North Carolina reaches the finals, which would be their third game in three days. The Tar Heels' best perimeter defender, senior Marcus Ginyard, won't return until sometime in December after surgergy to repair a stress fracture in his left foot. Freshman Tyler Zeller will miss the rest of the season with a broken wrist sustained last week against Kentucky. Now is the time to beat North Carolina, as Hansbrough and Ginyard recover and the freshman adjust to the college game.
Texas - As well-documented around this site, the major concern facing the number eight ranked Longhorns is their point guard play. Dogus Balbay looked capable in his debut against overmatched Tulane, but will come off the bench in Maui, leaving the strating ball-handling duties to Justin Mason and AJ Abrams. The Longhorns will likely patch together minutes at the spot, but expect AJ Abrams to have the ball in key circumstances, asked to play the role DJ Augustin more than ably filled for two seasons. The real signature of the team in the early going has been the defensive effort, with Texas allowing an average of 45 points through the first two games and holding opponents to 28.7% shooting (31-108), 23.2% from beyond the arc (10-43), forcing 44 turnovers, 22 steals, and blocking 12 shots.
St. Joseph's - The Hawks lost top scorer (17.5 points per game) and matchup nightmare (he could stroke the three ball) Pat Calathes to graduation, along with two of their best rebounders. With the losses in the frontcourt, the backcourt emerges as the strength of the team behind senior point guard Tasheed Carr and shooting guard Darrin Govens, pegged for a breakout season in his junior campaign.The frontcourt is not entirely bereft of talent, as junior 6-9 forward Ahmad Nivins has lead the Hawks early in the season, averaging 21 points and 12.5 rebounds in the first two games of the season. Not as encouraging is the result of St. Joe's last game, an overtime loss on the road to Holy Cross.
Oregon - The Ducks experienced significant losses to graduation from their mostly disappointing 18-14 team in 2007-08. Wing Mailk Hairston, guard Bryce Taylor, and the versatile Maarty Leunen all finished their careers in Eugene, leaving diminutive (5-6) Tajuan Porter as the top returning scorer (13.9 points per game) and Oregon dependent on six true freshman, one transfer, and two redshirt freshman for whatever success they manage this season. Several of the true freshman, including 6-9 Michael Dunigan and athletic wing Michael Humphrey, are highly regarded, but their inexperience will keep from Oregon from anything better than a middle-of-the-pack finish in the Pac 10, which doesn't have a lot of quality depth after UCLA.
Notre Dame - Reigning Big East Player of the Year Luke Harangody (21 points in 29 minutes last season) returns for his junior season to lead an experience Notre Dame team that lost only one contributor from last season, also returning long-range sharpshooter and noted stoner Kyle McAlarney. The return of key players camoflouges the Irish's most significant weakness: Their lack of depth. McAlarney played 35.7 minutes last season, while fellow backcourt starter Tory Jackson played nearly 33. Senior Luke Zeller is the only proven backup in the frontcourt. It is Harangody's skill that makes the Irish a formidable opponent. He's a 6-8, 250-pound bruiser who scores 40% of his points with his back to the basket, generally using his strength to establish deep position and getting to the free throw line with great frequency, where he hits more than 75% of his attempts. Defenders have to meet Harangody as far out on the perimeter as possible to force him to catch the ball farther from the basket than he prefers. Despite his strength, Haragody isn't all that athletic, which makes his shot blockable around the rim and in the lane.
Indiana - Kellen Sampson left a pile of burning rubble behind him as he high-tailed it out of Bloomington following repeated NCAA violations. Sampson's was only the first in a growing exodus from IU that eventually included the top 10 scorers. Graduation claimed four players, including DJ White, while freshman Eric Gordon declared for the NBA draft, one player left during last season (AJ Ratliff), two players left the team (Eli Holman and Jordan Crawford), and incoming coach Tom Crean dismissed Armon Bassett, Jamarcus Ellis, DeAndre Thomas and Brandon McGee. Crean was eventually left with one scholarship player from the Sampson regime, Kyle Taber, who scored 1.3 points per game last season.Crean will lean heavily on JUCO transfer Devan Dumes to provide scoring and leadership from the point guard position. Indiana will struggle rebounding this season, with only two players 6-8 or taller (Tijan Jobe and Tom Pritchard). Actually, it probably won't just be with rebounding that the Hoosiers will struggle. It's going to take Crean a couple of years to make this team competitive again. Kelvin Sampson woud be well advised to stay as far away from Bloomington as possible. Indefinitely, too.
Alabama - The success of Alabama's season rides on the health of point guard Ronald Steele, who redshirted last season with knee and ankle injuries. He's back on the court for the Tide, playing in the team's first two games and averaging 20 points. Alabama got off to a poor start, losing at home to Mercer, before beating Florida A&M handily. The leading scorer from last season, Richard Hendricks, left early for the NBA, while second leading scorer Mykal Riley ran out of eligibility. That leaves Steele's backcourt mate Alonzo Gee, the highest returning scorer at 14.5 points per game, to help Steele score the basketball, as well as McDonald's All-American JaMychal Green, Alabama's best interior scorer as soon as he stepped on campus, who is averaging 14.5 points and 10 rebounds through the first two games of his college career. Ronald Steele's younger brother, freshman Andrew, backs up his older brother at the point and provides the team with good perimeter defense.
Chaminade - The Silverswords lost all five starters and top six scorers from last season's squad that notched a win in the Invitational over Princeton to keep them from an eighth-place finish and won its second Pacific West title in three seasons. And suffice it to say that Chaminade isn't bringing in any McDonald's All-Americans to replace their graduated players. They will also be shaking off the rust of the off-season, as they haven't yet played a regular season game.

The First Round Matchups

Note: Texas, St. Joseph's, Notre Dame, and Indiana comprise one side of the bracket, with North Carolina, Chaminade, Oregon, and Alabama comprising the other.

North Carolina vs. Chaminade - Host Chaminade has rarely played spoiler in their home arena, posting a 5-65 record in the tournament. The Tar Heels roll in this one easily.
Texas vs. St. Joe's - The Hawks aren't even a very good Atlantic 10 team, picked to finish in the bottom three of the conference and likely won't provide more than a minor hurdle for the Longhorns, who move to 3-0 on the season.
Oregon vs. Alabama - The solid Alabama squad will likely win this game, but don't look for their continue past their matchup against North Carolina. Alabama's greatest contribution to the tournament field could come if they manage to stay close with North Carolina late into the game and force the Tar Heel starters to expend some energy. Not likely.
Notre Dame vs. Indiana - The two in-state rivals, separated by a 4-hour drive, are also separated by a vast gap in talent and experience. Notre Dame dispatches the Hoosiers as Tom Crean begins to realize just how long this season is going to last and starts to wonder how life would be back at Marquette.

Predictions

North Carolina will face little resistance in reaching the championship game to face Texas. The semi-final matchup between Notre Dame and Texas stays tightly contested in the final minutes, as the Longhorns prove too athletic and too deep for the glaringly white Notre Dame squad (seriously, look at all those white boys). After scoring in bunches early, Texas finally finds a defender capable of stopping Notre Dame star Luke Harangody (with Connor Atchley blocking shots and frustrating Harangody with double teams from the weakside), while full court pressure wears down and harasses the Irish backcourt. The point guard situation rears its ugly head for Texas in the championship game against North Carolina, with the offense stagnating for stretches and North Carolina hurting the Longhorns in the transition game.

Winner: North Carolina over Texas.

Gamecock Man's Pre-Season Hoops SEC West Power Rankings

Gamecock Man — Wed, 29 Oct 2008 01:25:16 -0000

Last time around, I gave pre-season rankings for the SEC East squads. This time, it's the West, which, unless they surprise us, will likely be the weaker division. The West does feature some tough teams, though, so don't be surprised if someone surprises us.

1. LSU

The Tigers underachieved last year under former coach John Brady, but they return four starters from last year's team and new coach Trent Johnson should have these guys playing more effectively than Brady. The easy non-conference slate should have them playing with lots of confidence come beginning of conference season.

2. Alabama

Mark Gottfried's bunch get talented guard Ronald Steele back this year and bring in super-frosh forward JaMychal Green. That shouldn't be enough to make them a national contender, but it should give them enough to do better than they did last year, when they faded during conference play and ended up at 17.16 and at home for the post-season.

3. Ole Miss

Coach Andy Kennedy has done a great job getting Ole Miss to where it is today, and this year, he might have a chance to make a serious run at the SEC title. The Rebels had a good year last year, although a mid-season slump kept them out of the NCAAs. This year, they return an experienced back-court and, while they lose some big guys, Kennedy brought in some talented youngsters that should make an impact. This is a team to watch.

4. Arkansas

The Razorbacks lose almost all of the members of last year's team. Luckily, this will give 2nd-year coach John Pelphrey an opportunity to remake this team in his own image. Pelphrey has brought in some talented freshmen, so look for Arkansas to be a threat, although they're probably a couple of years away from realizing their true potential under the talented Pelphrey.

5. Mississippi State

State looked primed for a solid run this year until Jamont Gordon left early for the NBA and Ben Hansbrough transferred to Notre Dame. Combined with the loss of Paul Rhodes to graduation, these defections leave State with a young, unproven team. Super-defender Jarvis Varnado returns to shore up the front line, but other than him, State returns very little, so unless their freshman are better than we think they are, it may be a long year for the Bulldogs.

6. Auburn

Jeff Lebo's team does return some decent players, but those players didn't do much last year, so it will likely be the case that they won't do a whole lot this year. At best, this team may contend for an NIT bid, but I doubt they do much more and even the NIT may be a bit of a stretch.