SB Nation - Jon Brockman

Sleeping With The Enemy: Meet The Washington Huskies

CasualHoya — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:15:09 -0000

Well, it's nearly mid-December and the Georgetown Hoyas are still an undefeated nationally ranked powerhouse. Woo-hoo! The Hoyas have won with ease in the friendly confines of Verizon (assuming the Temple game never happened), and have vanquished foes outside of the nation's capital, traveling down to New Orleans and thrashing the Green Wave, crushing the souls of the Tigers of Savannah State, and just this week returning to the World's Most Famous Arena to serve nuts on the Bulldogs of Butler. Next up on the schedule will likely be the Hoyas' toughest test yet, a date with the 17th ranked Washington Huskies in the Wooden Classic in Anaheim. We here at Casual Hoya realize that you are all likely in bed or passed out by the time the Huskies and their Pac-10 foes usually take the court, so in this version of Sleeping With The Enemy we're telling you what you need to know about our opponent to the West. Special thanks to my main man Anthony Cassino over at SBNation's own UWDawgpound for answering our penetrating questions about U-Dub. Anthony Cassino, this bud's for you.

via www.greatdogs.org

CH: What are Washington's strengths and weaknesses? Who are the best shooters? Rebounders?

Under Lorenzo Romar the Huskies have made their living on the offensive glass. For each of the last five years the team has been in the top 8 nationally, and this year we're sitting at second. Teams that let UW pound the offensive boards usually get beaten. The team's core is the two headed monster of Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter, who are both averaging over 20 points per game.

The two big weaknesses that this team has are perimeter shooting and size. Isaiah Thomas' shooting is much improved from last season, but can still be pretty inconsistent. Elston Turner is a talented sophomore guard and is probably the team's best shooter, but beyond those two guys there's not a single player I'd want shooting from deep unless there isn't a defender within 10 feet. Inside the Huskies have Matthew Bryan-Amaning and not a whole lot else. He's got talent, but gets into foul trouble frequently and usually disappears when playing a quality team. Matching up against Monroe is going to be a real test of his progress. Behind him the only true post player on the roster is Tyreese Breshers, who sat out last year with an injury and is still working himself back into shape, so he can't really be counted on for more than 15 minutes a game.

A weakness that Georgetown may exploit is that the Huskies tend to overplay on the perimeter a lot, which leaves them vulnerable to backdoor cuts. The best rebounder on the team is Quincy Pondexter who is averaging 9.6 a game. He's not the tallest guy, but he's strong, quick and athletic and has the ability to beat guys to the ball, and scores more than his share of second chance points.

CH: In the 1992 movie Singles, Steve (played casually by Campbell Scott) has a grand vision of a "supertrain" for Seattle - it will cut down on traffic and be good for the environment. He explains the idea to his friend, who nods in approval, then hesitantly replies, "But I love my car." Steve eventually gets a meeting with the mayor (played casually by Tom Skerritt), where he explains the great benefits of the supertrain. The mayor is silent for a moment, then says, "People love their cars" and the supertrain dream is dead. Question: How do you feel about a supertrain?

The supertrain is actually underway. Admittedly, I've never seen Singles, so I'm not sure what the vision was, but this past summer light rail was implemented which runs from downtown Seattle to Tukwila, near the airport. It's still in its infant stages, but the plan is to add to it until it services a large portion of the city. I guess Singles was just ahead of its time.

CH: Have you ever looked at your roster and shuddered because you have a player named Isaiah Thomas? How good is your Isaiah and what can teams do defensively to cause him problems?

I can't say I've ever shuddered, but it does get annoying how every nationally televised game they have to tell the story of how he got his name. I feel like Ive heard it about 50 times, and he's only a sophomore. Just so you know what to expect: his dad lost a bet, and his mom was ok with it because Isaiah is a biblical name.

How good is our Isaiah? Very good. Despite being listed at just 5-8, the kid knows how to attack the rim. He's one of the quickest players in college hoops, and I've really yet to see a defender who can stay in front of him. He likes to get into the lane and initiate contact to get to the free throw line, where he's improved his accuracy and is over 80% on the year.
If you had asked me last year how to stop Thomas I'd say to back off and make him beat you with his jumper, but he put in the work over the offseason and is shooting 39.5% from range this season. If it were me, I'd put a longer defender on him and make him work to shoot tough shots in the lane. He can also be a bit bullish when he's in attack mode and doesn't pass as often as he should, so a team effort of rotating a shotblocker over to help when he makes his move would probably work as well.

CH: Last year the Pac-10 sent six teams to the NCAA Tournament but this year only one team is ranked in the Top 25. Why the stark difference? Will the Pac-10 rebound or will this be the down year that was supposed to have happened last year?

Over the last three years the Pac-10 has had more lottery and first round picks than any other conference. And being the smallest of the Big-6 conferences, that's just not sustainable and the bottom had to fall out at some point. That point is this year. It also doesn't help that there's been a lot of coaching turnover; half of the conference's coaches are in their first or second year. This is absolutely the down year that many predicted, and it may even be worse than most thought it'd be with UCLA looking absolutely pathetic early on.

More fun with 'Sleeping' after The Jump:

CH: Seattle has become a prep basketball hotbed in recent years and with Cameron Dollar as a lead assistant, UW was able to string together several impressive recruits (while missing out on some big names, such as Jamal Crawford). As Dollar has moved on to be the head coach at Seattle U, how will recruiting change at UW?

It's not just Seattle, its all of Western Washington. There's only one Seattle player (Venoy Overton) on the team, but there are three Tacoma kids (Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy and Clarence Trent). ESPN's #1 high school prospect in last year's class (Avery Bradley) is from Tacoma as well. There are some kids from Kent who are big time recuits, incluing Josh Smith, one of the top players in the 2010 class.

I don't see recruiting changing all that much with the loss of Cameron Dollar. At the end of the day Washington is a school with a lot going for it: plays an uptempo style that many recruits want, located in a great city, big conference, players from the school have had success in the NBA, and the players really love Coach Romar. The man brought in to replace Dollar, Raphael Chillious, has already used his recruiting ability to help get a commitment from Enes Kanter, a member of the Turkish U-18 national team currently attending prep school in California.

CH: UW's now cancelled series with Gonzaga UW's has all the pigheadedness of Maryland refusing to play Georgetown. Back when Gonzaga was just a lowly WCC team, the series was a no-win for UW but now that they are a legitimate Top 25 fixture, why wouldn't the teams man up and agree to a home-and-home series?

Back in October, UW proposed a 3 game series with Gonzaga with all games being played at the nuetral site of Key Arena. Gonzaga shot the deal down and didn't make a counter offer. The Huskies thought it would be a good deal because both schools would make a ton of money, but Gonzaga didn't want to travel to the west side of the state three straight years.

The reason these teams won't be meeting any time soon is that Lorenzo Romar and Mark Few simply don't like each other. Back in the early portion of the decade Few tattled on Cameron Dollar for violations in recruiting, which cost UW a shot at signing both Marvin Williams and Josh Heytvelt. The blood has been bad ever since then and I wouldn't be surprised if the series remains dead as long as the two coaches hold their positions.

CH: The city of Seattle was able to enjoy former Hoya, Jeff Green, for one year before the Sonics' outlandishly greedy owners moved the team to that basketball hotbed, Oklahoma City. 2 questions: What's the best memory of Green as a Sonic and will Seattle ever get another NBA team?

I remember being really excited about that draft, getting Green and Kevin Durant. It was a fun draft day, but once the season rolled around I couldn't bring myself to watch them play. I didn't want to get attached to those young players when it was so obvious that the team was going to be taken away.

I don't see Seattle getting another NBA team. It's not financially viable at Key Arena, so someone would have to step up and build a brand new arena for an NBA team. Taxpayers won't want to help out, as they've already chipped in on Safeco Field and Quest Field, and are likely going to be hit up on a Husky Stadium renovation within a couple years. If the NBA does come back to the great state of Washington, it won't be anytime soon, and I'd be shocked to see it in my lifetime. It's a shame, because Seattle was an excellent NBA city.

CH: UW's heart and soul for the past 4 years, Jon Brockman, has now moved on and the team has moved to a more perimeter oriented attack. What can we expect from UW?

Expect the Huskies to apply lots of ball pressure to try and force some turnovers and push the ball to dictate tempo. The team is best when games are played at a faster pace, and I don't think they can play a halfcourt game and beat Georgetown. Venoy Overton is one of the best on ball defenders in the nation, and by the end of the game the Hoyas and Hoya fans will hate him. When he's on he alone can dictate the speed of the game through turnovers and forcing opposing point guards to get sloppy, so his play is going to be critical to the team's success.

Offensively, it's no secret that that the ball goes through Isaiah Thomas and Quincy Pondexter. Pondexter is the team's lone senior, and is having far and away his best season. If the Huskies go cold or need a big shot, he's the guy they get the ball to.

CH: Why the hell does Starbucks call its sizes Venti, Grande, Tall rather than Small, Medium, Large?

I have no idea. I think it's an elitist thing though. I'm the minority in that I'm a Washingtonian who doesn't drink coffee. I can't even take the smell of it. And if I did drink coffee, I'd boycott Starbucks after Howard Schultz sold the Sonics to the Oklahoma City Group.

Final score prediction:
Washington 78 Georgetown 74

via i.cdn.turner.com

Casually.

Pac-10 Hoops Weekly Wrap: Washington is the new No. 1

Nuss — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 23:28:12 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Jerome Randle is left wondering just how his team got blitzed by both Syracuse and Ohio State.

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Welcome to the first edition of the 2009-2010 Pac-10 Weekly Wrap, which looks at the state of the conference's hoops featuring my personal power rankings and analysis of the state of each team. I suppose the season's been going on for about two weeks now, but everyone's got enough games under their belt now that we can actually have some semi-meaningful analysis.

We came into the season suspecting the Pac-10 to be way down this year, and while I'm going to be one of the few to say that has yet to be proven, I think one thing has most certainly confirmed another suspicion: This is going to be the most wide-open conference race in years. There is no 300-pound gorilla this year, as every team in this race has not just little flaws, but big-time flaws that could be exploited on any given night.

In other words, prepare for a wild ride where the conference champ has at least five losses. While I initially dismissed it, all that talk about this being a three-bid conference just might be spot on.

On to the rankings and recaps. (When I say preseason rank, that was my own personal preseason rankings ...)

1. Washington

Preseason rank: 2
Record: 4-0

The Huskies have done what they were supposed to do, win all of their games, but they move up to the No. 1 spot more out of default than anything else. Playing all four games at home, they've posted two dominant wins (Belmont, Portland State) and two wins where they were firmly in control (Wright State, San Jose State). They do get credit for not stubbing their toe, but there's just not a lot here to go off of yet.

Bright spot: Count me among those who were/are skeptical they can replace Jon Brockman's interior presence. However, all signs are good so far. They're still an offensive rebounding machine -- currently an absurd 47.6 percent, good for fifth in the country -- and they're doing a competent job on the defensive glass. Of course, that's against overmatched competition, but that's what they're supposed to do ...

Question mark: The shooting. Their effective field goal percentage (what's that?) is a pedestrian 51.7, inflated by one superbly hot shooting night against Portland State. Otherwise, they've been under 50 percent in their other three contests. Not good. As a team they're shooting just 32.8 percent from 3-point range -- somebody has to fill Justin Dentmon's void.

An honorable mention for the question mark would be the defense: It's been merely average.

2. California

Preseason rank: 1
Record: 2-2

Nothing like getting slapped around by a couple of Top 25 teams early in the year to bring an excited fanbase back to reality. Seriously, I feel sorry for Cal fans. Their football team was considered a worthy challenger to the USC throne (we all know how that's turned out, although beating Stanford certainly takes out some of that sting), and now their basketball team is off to a rocky start. Theo Robertson is out indefinitely, and Harper Kamp is touch and go as he recovers from a knee injury. To not even be in those two games is not the kind of start you'd expect from a team returning so many players, even without those two guys.

Bright spot: Jerome Randle can still shoot -- 50 percent on 26 3-point attempts this year. He's well on his way to following up last year's breakout campaign.

Question mark: The defense. It was atrocious against both Syracuse and Ohio State, which ought to be pretty disconcerting, since that was a target for improvement this year. Here's what Basketball Prospectus 2009-2010 had to say about the Bears' efforts to improve there:

We’ve seen this script play out before. You know, the team that can score at will but can’t get stops. But they return everyone from the previous season…and this time they mean business! They’ve been thinking about defense all summer, blah, blah, blah. Last year at this time, these words were being spoken about Baylor, and to a lesser extent Notre Dame. Two years ago it was NC State. Each of those teams failed to improve their defense and fell short of lofty preseason expectations.

Cal is a good team that is going to win a lot of games this season….But they’re also a team with a significant weakness. One that history says is very difficult to overcome, even with hard work.

Four games in, this is looking downright prophetic. It might not cause a huge issue in the Pac-10 this year -- assuming Robertson comes back healthy to complete the three-headed monster on offense -- but they better shore it up if they don't want a repeat of their first round exit against Maryland.

3. Arizona State

Preseason rank: 7
Record: 4-0

Who wants to be No. 3 in the Pac-10? Step right up, Sun Devils! When you start to look at the remaining eight teams and figure out who the third-best team in the conference is right now, your options are somewhere between OK and really bad. So, congratulations on being OK, Arizona State, after more or less destroying your annual parade of cupcakes at home (a close, 52-49 game with TCU notwithstanding). They've done it with a balanced attack (four different guys are averaging double figures, despite only averaging 62.9 possessions as a team) and pretty good defense.

Bright spot: The Sun Devils can still shoot -- their 62.3 effective field goal percentage is third nationally. I don't care who the opponent is, that's impressive. They're shooting 49.4 percent from 3-point range, and when you're shooting 3s on nearly 40 percent of your possessions (79th nationally right now), that's a recipe for some blowouts. Rihards Kuksiks, Derek Glasser, Ty Abbott and Jamelle McMillan are all shooting better than 45 percent from long range.

Question mark: There was one game, however, where the Sun Devils did shoot poorly; care to guess which one? If ASU's offensive effectiveness is going to be that closely tied to their shooting, their fans are in for one roller coaster ride of a year.

4. Arizona

Preseason rank: 4
Record: 2-0

The Wildcats have only played two games, but they handled both Rice and Northern Arizona effectively. Nothing here yet to really suggest moving them up or down. We'll know more pretty quick -- they take on Wisconsin in Maui tonight, then face either Colorado or Gonzaga tomorrow.

Bright spot: By the time Sean Miller left Xavier, he had molded the Musketeers into an excellent defensive squad. It appears the Wildcats are buying in early, holding NAU to 91.0 efficiency (what's that?) and Rice to 67.8.

Question mark: The Wildcats were a pretty good offensive rebounding team last year, thanks mostly to some guy named Jordan Hill. With Hill gone, Arizona is currently 246th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (what's that?) -- despite playing vastly inferior competition. And it's not a style thing, since Miller's Xavier teams were routinely one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country.

5. Washington State

Preseason rank: 7
Record: 3-0

Congrats, Cougs for not puking up a game against an inferior opponent! Given what's going on around them in the conference, winning three games is no small accomplishment, especially when you note that two were blowouts and one was a blowout until a late run by a veteran squad brought the margin uncomfortably close. This team is young and is going to be inconsistent, but as you look around at the rest of the conference, you realize just how valuable of a commodity Klay Thompson is. There are a number of other teams that would absolutely kill for a scorer like him.

Bright spot: Thompson looks to be every bit the big-time scorer and leader we hoped he would be. Also, did we mention that a young squad with a new coach has played well enough to dominate the better part of three games?

Question mark: This one's easy -- the rebounding brought about by a thin frontcourt. The defensive rebounding has been merely average, and that's against some inferior competition. Not necessarily a good omen. Problem is, there's really no ready solution, since they're not likely to get taller or bigger.

6. UCLA

Preseason rank: 3
Record: 1-1

A lot of people thought the Bruins could survive their early defections on the coaching wizardry of Ben Howland. The early returns aren't great -- UCLA opened the season with a double OT loss to Cal State-Fullerton, then trailed Cal State-Bakersfield through much of the first half before pulling away late. Injuries to guys like Tyler Honeycutt have slowed the team down, and it hasn't helped that Nikola Dragovic went and got himself arrested for felony assault and subsequently suspended.

But if you're really looking for a reason why UCLA has slipped the last year-plus, look no further than highly touted recruiting classes where guys that were supposed to come in and make an immediate impact just haven't. If I were ranking purely on accomplishment, the Bruins would be down near the bottom of the conference right now. But I've got to balance performance with potential, and the smart money is still on Howland figuring out a way to squeeze a Tournament berth out of these guys.

Bright spot: The Bruins are getting only 2.1 percent of their shots blocked, eighth nationally. They've got that going for them. Which is nice.

Question mark: Can the Bruins survive the beginning of the season until they get healthy without tanking their NCAA Tournament chances? They're going to face some teams in the 76 Classic that will likely be on the bubble come March; losses there could be costly.

7. Oregon

Preseason rank: 8
Record: 3-1

The Ducks cruised through their first three games, even flashing some decent defense along the way. Then came a loss on the road to Portland in which the Ducks allowed 88 points on 66 possessions(!). Now, the Pilots are looking as if they might really be a threat to knock off the Zags in the WCC -- they have yet to shoot less than 58.3 eFG% in three games -- but if the Ducks want to get up into the top half of the conference with all that purported talent they have, they're going to have to do better than that. Granted, it was without Michael Dunigan ... but still.

Bright spot: Tajuan Porter is scoring efficiently, and I'm pretty sure this is the first time I've ever used the words "Porter" and "efficiently" in the same sentence. He's got a 129.1 offensive rating through four games. That's enough of a sample to suggest that he's doing some things right.

Question mark: Can Dunigan ever stay on the floor long enough to be the impact player his McDonalds All-American status suggested he should be? Last year it was fouls, this year injury. The Ducks need him to be a force.

8. Stanford

Preseason rank: 10
Record: 2-2

I actually looked at numbers for about five minutes trying to figure out how to rank OSU, Stanford and USC 8, 9 and 10. Then I realized I was spending actual time trying to figure out how to rank OSU, Stanford and USC 8, 9 and 10. They all stink right now. Badly. So they're in a relatively arbitrary order. I'll give Stanford some credit for having two wins and almost winning a third. But holy crap is the bottom of this conference awful. That alone should give the Cougs (and other middling teams) hope that they can get up into the NCAA Tournament conversation, because there are wins to be had.

Bright spot: The Cardinal are 14th nationally in turnover percentage and 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding percentage!

Question mark: With the lack of size up front, the Cardinal are already showing they're going to have a heck of a time defending the paint -- teams are shooting 51.8 percent from inside the arc against them. That's 241st nationally. Against teams like San Diego, Oral Roberts, Cal Poly and Florida A&M ... well, the only word that comes to mind is "ouchie."

9. USC

Preseason rank: 9
Record: 1-1

USC fans knew that offense was going to be hard to come by with this squad, so it's fortunate that defense is Kevin O'Neill's calling card. Unfortunately for the Trojans, their defense has been awful, and when you combine that with a subpar offensive night, you get a bad loss to Loyola Marymount at home. Ugh.

Bright spot: Nikola Vucevic is giving them some quality offense -- he's playing 97 percent of the minutes so far, using 23 percent of USC's possessions, and posting 123.0 offensive rating. Not bad at all.

Question mark: So many directions we could go with this one, ranging from Dwight Lewis failing to show up in the loss to the Trojans allowing their opponents to get to the line at an absurd rate. But, we'll go ahead with this one: Opponents are shooting 50 percent against USC from 3-point range. Obviously, that number is going to come down, but when your two opponents have shot 3s on 26 percent of their possessions -- 46th nationally -- and are hitting at that kind of a clip, that says something about your ability to close out on shooters. Ouch.

10. Oregon State

Preseason rank: 5
Record: 1-3

Are the Beavers really the worst team in the conference? Probably not, as two of their three losses were fairly close. But they get a penalty for failing to live up to preseason hype -- especially when Craig Robinson did little to downplay Oregon State as a contender for an NCAA Tournament bid. Usually teams wait until conference play to crumble under the weight of expectations; OSU did it in the first two weeks.

To say the Beavers have been atrocious on offense just isn't strong enough. Pick your synonym -- abysmal, abominable, awful, dreadful, painful, terrible, unspeakable -- and it probably doesn't do them justice, either. You would think they would be more efficient in their second year in Robinson's Princeton offense. Guess not. Only one player is averaging double figures, and I don't care what pace you play at, that's just brutal. Or awful. Or dreadful. Or whatever.

Bright spot: They didn't lose to South Dakota.

Question mark: How does Robinson get this offense rolling? The Beavers have been abysmal in ever facet of the offensive game -- they're even shooting under 60 percent from the free throw line. One has to believe there's some regression coming, but four games is more than 10 percent of the season, and to be that bad suggests something more than mere small sample size. OSU better get its crap together, right quick.

Potential Draft Picks for the Orlando Magic, If They Buy-In to the Second Round

Ben Q Rock — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 18:00:21 -0000

The Orlando Magic don't have a selection in tomorrow night's NBA Draft, having traded their first-rounder to Memphis in February's season-saving Rafer Alston acquisition, and their second-rounder to Oklahoma City (then Seattle) as part of the sign-and-trade deal which brought Rashard Lewis to Orlando in 2007; OKC has since shipped that pick to Phoenix.

But there's still a chance the Magic could acquire a pick this year, which is why it's prudent for us to examine whom they might realistically attain. What's realistic, by Magic standards? Anyone in the second round. Not only are first-round picks expensive to purchase--the maximum amount that can change hands is $3 million--but the players selected come with guaranteed deals. So even if the Magic were to buy, say, the 28th pick from Minnesota, they'd still be out $3 million for the transaction, plus another $3 million or so from the first two years' salary of that player's contract. That's quite the financial hit to take on a guy who might never play meaningful minutes.

But second-round picks figure to be more affordable, and with more sellers due to the sheer number of teams with picks to spare. Portland has 4 picks, Detroit and San Antonio have 3 apiece, while, Charlotte, Miami, Minnesota, and Phoenix have two each. So, after the jump, we'll take a look at which second-round prospects might fit-in well with the Magic, should they decide to make a move.

Before proceeding, I'd like to acknowledge Zach McCann of Orlando Magic Daily, who did this sort of exercise first; and to Jon Nichols of Basketball-Statistics, whose list of potential Magic targets also informed this post.

The two biggest areas of need for Orlando this year are power forward and point guard. The Magic will need another big man in the rotation if Marcin Gortat leaves via free agency, as I expect he will. They'll also need a young point guard whom they can groom as Jameer Nelson's backup, as Rafer Alston may be on his way out, and Anthony Johnson's contract runs out at the end of this season.

First, the power forwards. Jeff Pendergraph (6'10", 240 pounds, 22 years old), Jon Brockman (6'07", 252 pounds, 22 years old), and Taj Gibson (6'09.75", 214 pounds, 23 years old) would be my choices, in that order. Pendergraph, as DraftExpress notes, is the nation's most efficient scorer at 1.37 points per possession. Offensively, his scouting report recalls Gortat:

Pendergraph is a meat and potatoes type player, mostly living off scraps offensively. The overwhelming majority of his points come off the ball--cuts, offensive rebounds, pick and rolls, and in transition. He's smart, has terrific hands, and finishes pretty well around the basket-which makes him a reliable target inside.

On the downside, Pendergraph is only an average rebounder and shot-blocker.

Brockman isn't the offensive player Pendergraph is, and he's much shorter, but makes up for it with bulk and hard work. Again according to DraftExpress, Brockman took a backseat on offense this year as freshman Isaiah Thomas came into his own, but he still worked hard on his game. He's also one of the nation's leading rebounders. Unlike Gortat, he's not much of a finisher, but the Magic could certainly use a dedicated rebounder to fill-out their bigman rotation. Brockman could definitely be that guy.

The final power forward on my draft board is Taj Gibson. A tremendous athlete, he has the rebounding and shot-blocking aspects of the game down. The biggest problem with him is his skinny frame. Could he, at 214 pounds, defend NBA power forwards in the low-post? And, on offense, could he muscle through them to finish at the rim? Those two question-marks make him a riskier pick than either Pendergraph or Brockman.

Next, a look at the point guards. The draft is full of them. However, many of them will wind up in the lottery, leaving a lot of iffy players and combo-guards to the second round. I wouldn't select any of these guys ahead of any of the power forwards, but based on the Magic's need at that position, they're worth discussing anyway.

Sergio Llull (6'03", 176 pounds, 21 years old), A.J. Price (6'02", 190 pounds, 22 years old), and Jeremy Pargo (6'02", 219 pounds, 23 years old) round out my draft board. Llull, from Real Madrid, is an ballhandler and decision maker, particularly in pick-and-roll situations, which comprise 46% of his total offense. Fans who have followed the Magic during the Van Gundy era know how often the team uses the pick-and-roll, and having another player who can run it effectively makes the team that much more dangerous. Llull also a willing defender and communicator, although DraftExpress wonders if his frame might be too slight to fight through NBA screens. There's also no guarantee he'd join the NBA, as his guaranteed salary in Europe likely exceeds what he'd earn stateside. If the Magic are to shell out for a second-rounder, they'd want to make sure they're drafting someone who's guaranteed to make the trip. With that said, the way in which Llull's strengths mesh with the Magic's DNA makes him a worthy gamble.

Price is less exciting due to his lack of speed, but on the plus side he apparently possesses good court-vision, runs the pick-and-roll well, and can shoot from the outside. Any point guard who can run the pick-and-roll and hit the three-ball reminds me of Nelson, which is a plus.

Pargo rounds out our list. He doesn't draw many fouls, but makes up for it with his ability to finish around contact in the lane. The biggest knock against him is his tendency to make poor decisions against top competition. One of the reasons the Magic drafted Courtney Lee last year was his poise, his maturity, his ability to immediately compete and contribute at the NBA level. Pargo apparently lacks that attribute, which makes him the least attractive of any player we've discussed here. Still, his speed and playmaking skills would make him a welcome addition to the Magic's bench for the next year or two while he learns the ropes.

Ultimately, as far as second-rounders go, the players I've mentioned in this post are closer to Travis Diener and James Augustine than to Monta Ellis and Paul Millsap. But that's okay. Again, for the right price, Orlando can find itself in a good position to land a decent 12th-man type. And, should that player not pan out, the Magic are free to waive him without financial penalty, as his salary is non-guaranteed. Buying into the second round is a low-risk, medium-reward proposition for the Magic. Should they decide to make a deal, any of these players would be a good fit.

The Rebound Guy

atthehive — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 01:51:49 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

Pittsburgh's DeJuan Blair (45)

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It's universally agreed that the Hornets are most lacking at the 4/5 spots and at the wing. Hornets247 did a great review of some prospects while I was ~~slacking~~ curing cancer with Matt Wieters, but I figure I should expand on some of those before the draft is upon us.

Relative to the NBA, analyzing the NCAA via statistics is quite an inexact science. Pace adjustment is obviously a huge corrective step and methods of normalizing for conference do exist, but there are many, many variables that can't possible be accounted for. The shorter season. Travel within a generally smaller geographic region. The tendency of many top players to play close to home. The presence of friends and family. Less pressure from a fanbase. Etc. So I'll try and incorporate much of my own experience watching these players into the statistics because anecdotal evidence can actually have tremendous value here.

For today though, I'm going to go with almost an all stats approach. That's because the rebounders are first up.

I've mentioned this many times in the past, and it's worth saying again: rebounding may be the most consistent stat a player can have. Players from major NCAA conferences maintain remarkably similar rebounding rates in the NBA. Rebounders from minor NCAA conferences generally tend not to get picked... but I'd be willing to wager they'd do well on the boards if their other skills weren't so mediocre. The draftees with the top rebounding rates are generally the rookies the top rebounding rates. In 2007/2008, Kevin Love had the highest rebound rate among draftees, posting 5.1/9.8/14.8 offensive/defensive/total per 40 minute, pace adjusted split. He led the NBA in offensive rebound rate last year, and finished with Tim Duncan-esque defensive rebounding totals.

Most of the 2007/2008 leaders (Blair, Harangody, Griffin) returned to NCAA for one more year. In 2006/2007, the top rebounding rate belonged to Joey Dorsey. He hasn't panned out so far due to disciplinary issues, but he's rebounding decently in the D-League. The 2nd best rebounding draftee of 06/07- Greg Oden- posted a 5.0/8.5/13.5 split. He was injured all of last NBA season, but this year he would've led NBA in offensive rebound rate if he hadn't missed 20 games. The 3rd best rebounding draftee- Aaron Gray- has been widely and correctly reputed to suck, but his rebounding splits of 13.5/17.6/9.6 are absolutely rock solid good.

In 2005/2006, Paul Millsap led with an amazing 7.0/8.5/15.5 totals split. Nobody knew who he was. In three NBA seasons, he's posted rate splits of 13.3/20.6/17.0, numbers any team would drool over. I have a lot of confidence in the translation of the top rebound figures. So who's up there this year? Numbers are tabulated below, with the inclusion of comparable rebounders from years past.

Offensive/40M, pace adjusted

	Name	NCAA	NBA
1	DeJuan Blair	8.1	--
2	Paul Millsap	7.0	13.3
3	John Bryant	5.5	--
4	Jon Brockman	5.1	--
5	Kevin Love	5.1	15.1
6	Greg Oden	5.0	15.7
7	Aaron Gray	4.9	13.5
8	Jordan Hill	4.8	--
9	Michael Beasley	4.7	6.5
10	Hasheem Thabeet	4.5	--
11	Blake Griffin	4.5	--
12	Taj Gibson	4.3	--
13	Luke Harangody	4.0	--
14	Jeff Pendergraph	3.3	--

Defensive/40M, pace adjusted

	Name	NBA	NCAA
1	John Bryant	12.9	--
2	Blake Griffin	12.2	--
3	DeJuan Blair	9.9	--
4	Michael Beasley	9.9	19.8
5	Kevin Love	9.8	27.3
6	Luke Harangody	9.4	--
7	Aaron Gray	9.1	20.3
8	Jon Brockman	8.7	--
9	Greg Oden	8.5	24.5
10	Paul Millsap	8.5	20.6
11	Hasheem Thabeet	8.5	--
12	Jordan Hill	7.8	--
13	Jeff Pendergraph	7.3	--
14	Taj Gibson	6.7	--

Before delving into any of these numbers, my biggest desire for this draft was getting a bruising, battering big man. He doesn't have to be able to shoot, or even catch; he just needs to rebound the hell out of the ball and push some people while he's at it. Question is... does he exist?

Conclusions

Ability on both the offensive and defensive glass indicates a higher probability that either offensive or defensive rebounding will translate to the NBA. Paul Millsap's defensive numbers weren't otherwordly, but it appears his incredible offensive numbers translated to the defensive side somewhat. The same thing seems to have occurred with Kevin Love. Another conclusion seems to be that good college rebounders seem to become much better NBA rebounders, more often than they become awful ones. The only guy on this list that turned in a truly hideous performance was Michael Beasley on the offensive glass (his college numbers were mediocre, but I don't think many people would've pegged him to be this poor). But otherwise, Kevin Love absolutely blew up on the defensive glass, and Greg Oden blew up on the offensive glass, among others. Personally, I view this as "if you were this great in college, your rebounding skillset is only likely to get better from this point."

These two graphs also point out why so many are viewing Hasheem Thabeet as an automatic bust. A 7'3" center posting that pathetic offensive rate and mediocre defensive rate isn't awe inspiring. I still think he could develop into a guy of the Roy Hibbert mold (a player I love), but he'll need to bulk up big time, and the naysayers have plenty of statistical ammunition here. If you're wondering where Tyler Hansbrough is... he posted a 3.5/5.9 split this year. Not inspiring stuff. To me, his best case scenario is a taller Matt Harpring. Another guy not cracking the lists is B.J. Mullens, projected to go in the top 20 in many places. His 3.5/6.2 split is very poor also, but his combination of age (20) and offensive skills may make him worth it (though I doubt it).

Is there a player on here that fits that "battering, bruising" description? Absolutely- DeJuan Blair. The numbers say he is exactly that guy. The problem is, his stock has been rising very rapidly. He showed up to a bunch of workouts, 15 pounds lighter, and allaying a lot of people's fears that he could never cut down on weight. It would take a series of strange events- probably starting with a bunch of teams passing on Brandon Jennings, so Indy takes him over Blair- for him to fall to 21. Basically, Blair is last year's Courtney Lee. I drooled over him badly last year, fully aware that there was no way he'd fall to 27. Same thing this year... if Blair drops this low, the Hornets have to take him no matter what. Forget the offensive shortcomings, forget his height, forget his weight. Those rebounding numbers are a steal at 21 any way you slice it.

In regards to the others, I'd definitely steer clear of Jordan Hill if I were Washington (or whoever else is supposedly drafting him). His board numbers are decidedly mediocre. I've noticed that the Pac-10 has posted generally lower pace-adjusted numbers in recent years, so Hill's numbers may not be that terrible... but at best, they're average. We'll see, but I'm officially predicting a bust. Speaking of the Pac-10, Jon Brockman (Washington) has some above average numbers. He's one of the biggest mysteries of this draft to me. I watched him a ton at Washington, and I've always been impressed with his ball skills and touch close to the basket. The biggest knock on him is his height (6'7") but he's always used his bulk (260) to muscle opponents out of the way. His rebounding figures certainly attest to that. I'd peg him as a great second round pick for New Orleans... if we had a second round pick. Nonetheless, most mock drafts don't even have him going in the second round. I imagine Portland (4 second round picks (!!!!!!!!!!!)), Detroit (3 second round picks), and San Antonio (3 second round picks) have to be taking a serious look at him though. John Bryant's another second round gamble kind of guy since he's out of SCU, and nobody knows what lens to view his crazy rebounding numbers through.

Overall? 21 is not a good place to snare a big man. Frankly, these guys all suck. The one good guy is going to be gone by pick 16, and the two other guys that intrigue me (Bryant and Brockman) are decidedly not 21st overall selection material. Anyone think DET/IND would bite on a 21st and Daniels for the 13/15? Yeah, me neither.

The conclusion is basically: take a wing. I'll go over who my preference would be tomorrow (tons of mocks have us taking VCU's Eric Maynor). Take a wing, go get Richard Hendrix from the D-League. Get back a healthy Chandler and Peja, and hey, failing to get that big might not be the worst thing after all.

Declaration day: Pac-10's losers and winners

Nuss — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:00:46 -0000

More photos » by Reed Saxon - AP

That constipated look on Ben Howland's face? He's wondering just who the heck is going to play point for his team next year now that Jrue Holiday is officially gone. (AP Photo/Reed Saxon)

Browse more photos »

The deadline for underclassmen to announce their final intentions for the NBA Draft came and went yesterday. Here's a quick look and the losers and winners, from biggest to smallest, along with my way-too-early Pac-10 power rankings for next season.

LOSERS

USC: A couple of months ago, this pretty clearly would have been Arizona. Not anymore. Tim Floyd has resigned in disgrace and DeMar DeRozan, Taj Gibson and Daniel Hackett (!) are gone. I think it's become obvious that the program is in need of some serious house cleaning -- beyond these players leaving, there were some serious fractures on that team last year. The recruiting cupboard is all but bare, and there are likely sanctions on the way. Not a good day to be a Trojan. (But I guess we could say that about any day, right?)
Arizona State: James Harden is gone, and anyone who watched the Sun Devils play when he wasn't on the floor the last two years -- or when his legs finally gave out from inexcusable overuse -- know what that means. Herb Sendek has what appears to be a good recruiting class coming in, but let's be frank: None of them are game changers like Harden. He was a special kind of player that made Sendek look like a darn good coach. Let's see what he can do now that he doesn't have Harden around to ride like Secretariat.
Arizona: Boy, have the Wildcats pulled one heck of a magic act. In November, they were in complete disarray. Lute Olson was retiring just before the start of the season and their first choice for interim coach didn't want the job. Then, the season was mediocre by their standards, recruiting was at a standstill and it looked like their Big Three was bolting for the NBA. Now, they've got a fantastic coach in Sean Miller (after serendipitously being spurned by Tim Floyd), an unbelievable recruiting class considering the wreck this program was just a couple of months ago, and they're only losing Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill -- Nic Wise returns. Still not a great day for Arizona, but holy cow could it have been a lot worse.
UCLA: Had UCLA successfully recruited a point guard for this draft class, I suppose it would be debatable whether UCLA even belonged in the loser category, even with the loss of Jrue Holiday, who was never as good in LA as he was supposed to be. But with Darren Collison graduating and Holiday staying in the draft, the Bruins have a ton of question marks at the lead spot. Their leading returning assist men? Nikola Dragovic and Michael Roll. Yeah.

WINNERS

Cal: While traditional powers such as Arizona and UCLA got worse, Cal didn't have even one of its talented underclassmen test the draft waters. That means Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher, Jamal Boykin and the rest of the Bears' roster will return. No team will be poised to take advantage of other teams' losses more than Cal, which will be a top 10 team heading into next season. The scary part is that they've got a coach who's used to his teams having to live up to high expectations. Watch out.
Washington: At the end of the year, people actually said with a straight face that Isaiah Thomas might declare for the draft. He didn't, and neither did Quincy Pondexter. With a fantastic recruiting class coming in led by Abdul Gaddy, the only thing keeping the Huskies from being a winner on Cal's level is the enormous question mark in the frontcourt where Jon Brockman used to be.
Washington State, Oregon State, Oregon, Stanford: This is a great time to be a program on the rise in the conference. After having some of the best teams in the country in 2007-08 and being unbelievably balanced last season, this figures to be a good time to be heading north, what with the traditional powers being down. There's room to move, and each of these programs have hope for the upcoming season that they can make that move.

Way-Too-Early Pac-10 Power Rankings

Cal - New version of WSU 2007-08 ... but with more talent. Scary.
Washington - Could easily repeat as Pac-10 champs if even one of their big men steps up inside. None of this foo-foo face up stuff; who will get dirty?
UCLA - I'm betting Ben Howland can figure out an adequate solution at PG.
Arizona - This shows just how fast it drops off after top 3. Depth still will be a major issue, but the combo of Wise and Fogg will make for a formidable backcourt.
Oregon State - This is a tough one: Does the Pac-10 stop being fooled by the Princeton offense, or does OSU get even better after another year in the system?
Arizona State - Still lots of experience here. Derek Glasser is underrated -- I understand, it's tough to take that chest hair seriously -- and Ty Abbott could be the breakout player of the year in the conference out of Harden's shadow.
Washington State - My heart wants to rank the Cougs higher, but with a new coach and still loads of inexperienced players ...
Oregon - Lots of talent. However, Ernie Kent doesn't exactly have a track record of coaching guys up to dramatic improvements between their first and second year. Look for the Ducks to be better in 2010-11. If Kent can hang on that long.
Stanford - Big losses (Goods, Hill, Johnson) and a solid-but-unspectacular recruiting class don't scream "mover and shaker."
USC - Until they get a coach and one or two of the as-yet-unsigned recruits, this is a team staring at the bottom of the conference.

WE ARE STILL HERE! (a.k.a: the Washington recap)

BoilerTMill — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 00:52:53 -0000

I've had about 24 hours to reflect on our great win over Washington now. The glow still hasn't worn off. Not only are we still playing, but I know it is really bothering a lot of people in the media that we are still playing. You could see it yesterday if you read between the lines. We beat a team we supposedly had no chance to beat, but instead the focus was on how we almost blew the game instead of the fact we outplayed a great team. You can even already see how the previews for our sweet 16 game are going to be. Connecticut was the high scoring team on the first weekend. They won both of their games easily, but they were against the lowest seeds they could have possibly faced. We're going to be given no chance against them.

And I am fine with that.

Can we make others cry like this because they didn't think the Old Gold and Black could beat them?

We can put the white jerseys away now unless we meet Arizona in Detroit. We now fill the role of Cinderella as a five seed since 14 of the top 16 seeds are still alive. There are absolutely no expectations from this point forward.

Positives from the Washington game:

JaJuan Johnson - Coach Painter said it best in his post-game presser:

"A lot of people talk about offensive possessions and making shots. It always comes down to making stops," - Matt Painter

The other team cannot beat you if you simply prevent them from scoring. Their talent level, size, strength, speed, ability, and effort does not matter if you prevent them from putting the ball in the basket. Digger and the media do not seem to realize this. Yesterday we saw that in the final minute from Mr. Johnson. I don't care if the final score is 6-4, or1,265,788-1,265,787, as long as we have the higher number at the end it is all that matters. Yes, JaJuan's 22 points were huge, but it was his two blocks that kept us in the lead. When we absolutely needed a basket we were able to give him the ball and he got it. What will make JaJuan so valuable next week is that he can draw a shot-blocker like Hasheem Thabeet away from the basket and free up the lane. He is developing the total package for a big man, and if he stays two more years he will be unstoppable in 2011.

That only means we must do some serious subliminal work on him. This has to be an effort by all Purdue fans to remind him he is not ready for the NBA yet.

Keaton Grant - That had to be one of the quietest double-doubles I have ever seen. In true Purdue fashion, Keaton worked his butt off yesterday. He did all the little things we needed in order to win without drawing attention to himself. Many Washington fans were saying we didn't have the depth needed to hang with them. They predicted we would run out of gas. I didn't even realize we limited out normal eight man rotation to mostly six. Chally played just 7 minutes and Marcus Green was limited to four minutes because of fouls. Keaton was the bench last night, and he was phenomenal in doing so.

Lewis Jackson - I have long talked about unexpected offense. JaJuan, E'Twaun, and Robbie are clearly our primary scorers. We look to them the most, and we are a better team when we get unexpected offense from someone else. LewJack provided that offense yesterday. 11 points is big for him, and with a few more layups dropping he would have been close to 20. His quickness gave us an element few "experts" expected from us. More importantly, he was money from the free throw line. The real question here is: Who will step up in this way for the next game?

Robbie Hummel - We didn't look to Robbie that much on offense. Where he made a huge difference was on the glass. That's what I love about him and everyone else on this team. There is almost zero ego for everyone. Each player is willing to sacrifice personal glory in order to help the team win. Robbie has been our best rebounder of late. I don't care that his scoring has dropped off of late. He is doing all the little things necessary in order to win. This attitude is infectious and if we upset Connecticut, that will be reason #1.

E'Twaun Moore - Yesterday was the first time I saw flashes of the old E'Twaun. Because of that, I have big expectations for him against UConn. I could feel yesterday that he wanted to take that game over. Against Northern Iowa he wanted the ball at the end of the game as well. I know I am not the only one that sensed he has, "the look". Of everyone on the team, I think E'Twaun is most capable of getting red hot and dropping 40 on a team. I have known that since he took the Golden Child Eric Gordon to school in the 2007 Class 4A state title game. He showed glimpses of being on fire against Ohio State last week too. UConn could be that game where he simply goes off.

Bench play - I already talked about Keaton's play, but our bench out-performed theirs. Chally had a big three at a huge moment and didn't do anything wrong when he was in there. Washington, in return, got virtually nothing from its bench. Elston Turner hit a huge 3-pointer, but those were their only bench points. Outside of that they had two assists, three rebounds, and five turnovers from their four bench players. We turned what was supposed to be a strength into a weakness and basically dared Pondexter, Brockman, and Thomas to beat us as a three man team.

Negatives from the Washington game:

The entire second half against Pondexter, Brockman, and Thomas - I am 29 years old and in relatively good shape. I work out 3-4 times per week and can run a 7 minute mile. Seeing those three attack us down the stretch last night left me more exhausted than last week's Big Ten Hoops Day 5K. I give an enormous amount of credit to Washington for not folding when it looked like we were going to run away with this thing. Between the 12 and 8 minute TV timeouts of the second half they trimmed the lead from 11 to 4 and put every Purdue fan in panic mode. I even think we were playing good defense. They simply executed well. Brockman was a beast on the offensive glass and is worthy of all the praise he received before the game. The only post player better than him that I have seen is Blake Griffin. The Thomas vs. LewJack battle was everything it could be. Pondexter could be a Pac-10 POY candidate next season. This team will get better a year from now.

Layups - We need a week's worth of layup drills, like right now. I am tired of penetrating only to see the ball roll off the rim.

Up next:

We are still alive.

Look at those four words for a moment. Right now there are 342 division 1 basketball schools with another 7 going through reclassification to move to division 1. That is 349 schools. Right now, 333 of those schools have absolutely zero chance of winning the 2009 Division 1 men's basketball national championship. Indiana and their five titles cannot win it. Kentucky cannot win it. UCLA cannot win it. Arkansas, California, Cincinnati, Florida, Georgetown, Holy Cross, LaSalle, Loyola-IL, Marquette, Maryland, Michigan, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Oregon, San Francisco, Stanford, UNLV, UTEP, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming are all former champions in addition to the above bluebloods. They all have no chance this year of adding to their register.

Purdue can win it.

I know the mere fact that I believe Purdue can win this tournament will instantly discredit me from being a true journalist, but I do not care. Louisville, Arizona, Kansas, Michigan State, Connecticut, Purdue, Missouri, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Xavier, Villanova, Duke, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Syracuse, and Oklahoma are the only teams left that have a chance.

Your conference affiliation does not matter.

Who says who is great in the media does not matter.

Only those 16 schools matter, and we are one of those 16.

Thursday night we play Connecticut at 7:07pm at University of Phoenix Stadium. That is the most important game of the season. Should we win, the victory needs to be viewed as just as important as our win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, because the next game against Memphis or Missouri will then be the most important game of the season. Until around 9:15pm Thursday night, however, only Connecticut exists. That is all we can control, and it should be our sole focus.

We can beat these guys simply because we have a chance to beat these guys. That's should be our sole focus this week.

Look out UConn, here come the Boilers.

No one will give us a chance. Connecticut has won their games by 82 combined points. We have won ours by seven combined points. The 82 is the largest margin of victory for the 16 teams left. The seven is the smallest. The only thing that matters is two though.

We have two wins in this tournament, and so do they.

You WILL respect us by 9:15pm Thursday night, win or lose.

Observations from Day Two in Portland: Gonzaga/UNC is going to be really fun (and other stuff)

Nuss — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 21:25:19 -0000

On my way back home after staying the night in Portland last night. And to answer SW WA Coug's question, yes, that was fun. Both games were highly entertaining, and you can't ask for anything more than that WKU/Gonzaga finish. Spectacular.

So as not to bury the open tournament thread, click on the link for some of my thoughts from each game.

UW/Purdue

The first thing that needs to be said is that that was a completely different Purdue team than the one that was generally going through the motions on Thursday against Northern Iowa. The Boilers looked inspired on the both ends of the floor, and sometimes that happens when a team gets to the second round. (Isn't that right, Memphis and Villanova?)
I honestly did not anticipate how tough of a matchup Purdue would be for Washington. The Boilers have a lot of length, and that caused problems for the Huskies all day -- not on defense, but on offense, where Purdue could get their shots off whenever they wanted to. And when you're shooting as well as they were in the first half yesterday, you can put a lot of space between you and your opponent pretty quickly. Because of this, I given them a puncher's chance against UConn -- it's not much, but it's more of a chance than I would have given Washington.
Can't say enough about Jon Brockman. That's guy's heart and desire almost singlehandedly kept UW in that game, and I can't help but wonder what's going to happen to them with him gone. Matthew Bryan-Amaning played an absolutely terrible, boneheaded game, and Darnell Gant spends most of his time 15 feet from the basket. They're full of long and talented guys, but the toughness and intelligence most certainly have a long way to go.
Once again, Justin Dentmon was a total non-factor. I can't believe how many shots that guy passed up in those two games. Do you know that in the final nine games of the year, he only shot over 50 percent once -- against Seattle U? And that his percentage of shots also dropped over those final nine games? The book was out -- don't leave him open, stay in his face and make him put the ball on the floor. The Huskies will not miss him next year, as they're better with Elston Turner, a guy who doesn't need to be asked twice to shoot, in the lineup.
All the talk today is about Venoy Overton's four fouls, but that's ignoring the giant pink elephant in the middle of the room: He was having an absolutely horrific defensive day besides that, as his man beat him for penetration repeatedly. The fouls were just making it worse. And thank goodness for referees who finally had the stones to call his fouls. They're not hard fouls, but they're fouls nonetheless. I think Overton believes his own myth and has forgotten that his first priority needs to be staying in front of people, something he didn't do very well yesterday.
I honestly felt kind of bad for about a half-second for Isaiah Thomas when he blew that layup, because he was the other reason the Huskies were able to come back. That kid is a stone-cold scorer without a conscience, and as a hoops fan I could appreciate the way he took over that game. It would have been fitting for him to tie it like that. But then I remembered I don't like Washington. And I didn't feel bad anymore.
I know Lorenzo Romar was coach of the year in the Pac-10, but I think he made a big blunder yesterday. Sometimes coaches get married to routine, and I think Romar was guilty of that to a degree yesterday. He just went with his normal substitution patterns early in the second half, sending Thomas to the bench just as the Huskies were really coming back. Thomas was the only one giving any offense, and I think they needed to ride that horse as long as possible. Also, he continued to stick with Dentmon, despite his passivity, and Bryan-Amaning, despite his repeated brain farts. I just don't think Romar did everything he could to put his team in the best position to win yesterday.

Gonzaga/WKU

Yes, it was as entertaining in person as it was on TV -- probably even more so. You probably could hear it on the broadcast, but lots of "oooohs" and "aaaaahs" whenever Mendez-Valdez and Slaughter hit another ridiculous shot. And the pace was just insane. Pomeroy's got it at 71 possesssions, but boy did it seem like more than that. (Probably because it wasn't inflated by any last-minute fouling.) Both teams were running at every opportunity, and were not afraid to take the first quasi-decent shot that presented itself. Too fun.
Grady sent me a text last night about Gonzaga's 3-point defense and noted a similar thing on the blog last night. Honestly, it sure looked to me like many of those shots were contested and that WKU was just shooting at an unreal clip. But maybe that's just the way it seemed from the top of the arena. Plus, WKU shot 61.3 eFG% -- Gonzaga's highest allowed this year, but only the Toppers' fourth highest of the year. I think you just kind of have to give credit where credit is due on that one.
In that same vein, Gonzaga's defense looked much better last night than it did on Thursday. Part of it probably was Western Kentucky settling for a lot of outside shots, but the Bulldogs just seemed a little more inspired on that end of the floor. My guess? They knew that a good defensive possession was likely going to result in an opportunity to run the other direction, and nothing motivates running teams like that carrot.
The end of that game is one of the many reasons why I hate coaches being allowed to call timeouts. They're not on the floor (or at least shouldn't be) and are already too much a part of the college game with all of their incessant micromanaging. Plus, you run the risk of an official in a very loud arena not hearing or seeing them, and you get stuck with people talking just a little bit less about what a great game it was because the coach was trying to call timeout.
Matt Bouldin is playing really, really well right now. He always seemed to me to have a tendency to disappear in big games. But for my money he was the unsung hero on Thursday, and of course came up big last night. I haven't watched Gonzaga enough to say this with 100 percent certainty, but he's the one guy on that team who really seems to understand the game and who actually tries to play some defense.
Last thing. I absolutely cannot wait for the Gonzaga/UNC matchup this week. Neither team even really attempts to play much defense, and both are going to run at every possible opportunity. Look for that game to be close to 80 possessions, first one to 90 points wins. Should be an incredibly entertaining game.

What we've learned so far in the NCAA Tournament

MRickman84 — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 01:03:17 -0000

Spare the jokes about how we learned that Dino can't coach in the postseason and the Deacs still can't win in March. Aside from that, we have learned some interesting things after the first three days of the NCAA Tournament...

1.) Teams that jack it up lose.

Teams that rely on the three-ball as a primary portion of the offense lose in the tournament. They just do. Look at: Michigan, Butler, Portland State, Akron, Mississippi State, Utah, American, Northern Iowa, Temple, Ohio State-- all these teams are in the Top 100 in 3pt Attempted/FGA. Defenses are better in the NCAA Tournament, and teams will make you pay if you have a bad shooting night or can't rebound the ball.

2.) Stars will be stars

Role players often have breakout games (Derek Glasser!), but stars rule the NCAA Tournament. Blake Griffin, Ty Lawson, Terrence Williams, Hasheem Thabeet, the big-time players come out in March

3.) Big men still matter

I know it's a guard's league, but the big fellas still hold their own in the Dance. Blake Griffin had 32 points today in Oklahoma's win, Purdue's Jajuan Johnson went crazy against Washington's Jon Brockman (who also had a big game), Tyler Hansbrough and Ed Davis had good games against LSU--the boys in the middle make a difference, especially against teams that have a hole at the center position.

4.) But don't forget the guards

Guards take the big shots when it counts. When a team is down two with the ball, the big guy doesn't take the shot--the star guard does. And they shine. Dionte Christmas had a huge game, Cedric Jackson and Cleveland State went off against Wake Forest, James Harden scored seven straight when Arizona State needed him most, Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington carried North Carolina. Guards win Championships.

5.) It pays to press

Teams in March who haven't seen the press panic. It's just true. If you spend your whole year without seeing it, a good press will take a team out of their game plan. That's why Louisville is picked to go so far. That's why Missouri is a darkhorse to go to the Final Four. Pressing teams turn opponents over, get quick buckets and make teams play at their tempo. Excuse Clemson from this conversation; apparently OP can't win in March at all.

What do you all think? Any other cardinal rules to this year's tournament?

Know thy NCAA Tournament Opponent Round 2: Washington Huskies.

BoilerTMill — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 21:00:11 -0000

Before getting into a preview of our possible second round opponent in Washington, John Berkowitz from the SBNation blog UW Dawg Pound agreed to answer a few questions about the Huskies for me. Here is what John has to say about the potential Boilers-Huskies matchup:

This isn't the Rose Bowl now. You're playing our game.

Hammer & Rails: With two bowl games and a four game series in the early 90's, Purdue fans are very familiar with the Husky football program. Basketball is a bit of a mystery though. Purdue is 3-1 all-time against UW and hasn't played them since a strange 2 game series in Seattle on December 8th and 9th way back in 1967. What can you tell us about this year's Husky squad other than they are Pac-10 champs?

UW Dawg Pound: I'm actually old enough to kind of remember that two game series in 1967. I have no idea why they did that. This year's squad can be described as a very blue collar unit. UW is the leading rebounding team in the Pac 10 and one of the leaders in rebounding margin nationally. If you don't hit the boards you won't beat Washington. The Huskies play aggressively on defense and apply a lot of pressure on opposing guards. We have a nine man rotation so we tend to wear teams down. The team is led in scoring by PG Isaiah Thomas, SG Justin Dentmon, PF Jon Brockman, and SF Quincy Pondexter. UW isn't a great outside shooting team. They like to penetrate on offense and it all revolves around Jon Brockman who leads the Pac 10 in career double-doubles pounding it out inside.

H&R: In just taking a quick look at the statistics your squad reminds me a lot of our second round opponent last year in Xavier. They were very balanced with four players in double figures. How do you expect this to match up well with our known defensive prowess?

UWDP: We have a lot of depth and speed at the guard position which tends to help negate tough defenses. Since we are a great rebounding team we get a lot of second and third chances on offense which is good because we aren't exactly a great shooting team.

H&R: I know Washington was not on the short list of Pac-10 favorites this year, especially after a loss to Valpo in last year's CBI. At what point did this begin to feel like a special season for you?

UWDP: We didn't start the season well losing to Portland, Kansas, and Florida State in December. I think most of us felt that special feeling after the first half of conference play when we had a two game lead in conference play. Sweeping the LA schools in Seattle was probably the point where we thought this team was tournament bound.

H&R: This game could be a case of East Coast Bias vs. Big Ten Disrespect when it comes to the media. Which of those do you think is a bigger issue?

UWDP: I don't think it really matters since the game will be played in Portland which gives UW a home court advantage. These games come and go so quickly at this point of the tournament that the media isn't much of a factor. It isn't like the buildup that comes with a Rose Bowl game.

H&R: Finally, what does Washington absolutely need to do to beat Purdue, and what must Purdue do in order to beat Washington?

UWDP: Washington needs to out-rebound the Boilermakers and put pressure on your guards to create mistakes which result in points. Washington's depth on defense is always a factor and it tends to tire teams out late in the second half. Purdue needs to counter the aforementioned and also counter Washington's strength inside by shooting the ball well from the outside. A blizzard of three's from the outside always loosens things up. Washington's guards will pressure the heck out of you and the deep rotation allows them to do that for 40 full minutes. Most importantly Purdue needs to stay out of foul trouble and take away UW's tempo.

Thanks John! I'm looking forward to Saturday.

Washington Huskies

Record: 25-8, 14-4 Pac-10 (regular season champions)

NCAA Tournament Appearances: 14 (first since 2006)

All-Time NCAA Record: 14-14 (best finish: Final Four in 1953)

All-Time Record vs. Purdue: 1-3 (lost last meeting 84-77 on 12/9/1967 in Seattle)

2008-09 common opponents: None

Notable games vs. 2008-09 NCAA Tournament teams: Kansas (L 73-54), Oklahoma State (W 83-65), Portland State W (84-83), Morgan State (W 81-67), California (L 88-85, L 86-71), USC (W 78-73, W 60-51), UCLA (W 86-75, L 85-67), Arizona State (W 84-71, W 73-70, L 75-65), Arizona (L 106-97, W 83-78)

2007-08 record: 16-17, 7-11 Pac-10 (Lost to Valparaiso 72-71 in CBI tournament)

Blog Representation: UW Dawg Pound

By seeding nature, a 4/5 nature is usually one of the most competitive second round games. We are a major conference tournament champion and they are a regular season winner of a major conference. We each have 25 regular season wins. Both teams are tournament tested, as the Huskies (counting Mississippi State) will be 10-7 against NCAA teams. Our record against NCAA Tournament teams if we beat Northern Iowa: 10-7.

As John mentioned, Washington stumbled out of the gate in losing three of their first five games. I do give them credit for having the guts to open the season with a true road game at Portland, though it ended in an 80-74 loss. The Huskies followed that 2-3 start with a nine game winning streak. They truly earned their Pac-10 championship as that conference is the only major conference that has a true round-robin home and away format. Washington grabbed at least a split with everyone except California, which is a major reason why the Golden Bears are dancing as well.

Statistically, Washington reminds me a lot of our second round opponent last year, Xavier. They feature four guys who average in double figures and take care of most of the scoring. Isaiah Thomas (15.4 ppg, 2.5 apg) leads them as a slashing point guard. As mentioned above, no one is a strong outside shooter, but Thomas can get in the lane and disrupt things by scoring or dishing on penetration. It will be critical for us to stay at home on defense so we don't allow the dribble drive. This is a team that we can relax a little bit on the perimeter against.

Shooting guard Justin Dentmon is the team's best 3-point threat, shooting better than 42% from long range. He averages a little more than 15 points per game and also adds 2.5 assists. He is probably their only legitimate threat from long range. Thomas has 37 made 3-pointers on the year, but he shoots worse than 30% from out there. Only backup freshman guard Elston Turner, Dentmon, and Thomas have more than 8 made 3-pointers on the year. Turner averages 3.5 points per game, but mostly because he hits about one 3-pointer per game (23 on the year). It is clear that Washington's guards are not comfortable unless they are getting into the paint, so we have to take that away from them.

Jon Brockman (14.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg) may be the best forward we have faced since Blake Griffin in terms of statistics. He's a tad undersized going against JaJuan at only 6'7", but he makes up for it with a solid 255 pound frame. Think Carl Landry (get well soon, big guy) when you think of Brockman. Washington loves to look for him in the paint and he is an excellent offensive rebounder. We have to get a body on him any time a shot goes up. If we rebound the way we did against Northwestern Brockman will own us.

Forward Quincy Pondexter (11.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg) rounds out the strong foursome for the Huskies. He is also an excellent offensive rebounder and can clean up the messes left by a generally poor shooting team. The fact he is also a good offensive rebounder makes our assignment even more difficult against Brockman.

After Pondexter, the scoring for Washington drops off a bit. Five other guys play at least 13 minutes each night, matching our own nine man rotation. As John mentioned, Washington relies on the depth of its defense to wear teams out. In addition to Turner, we can expect to see Matthew Bryan-Amaning (6.3 ppg), Venoy Overton (5.9 ppg), Darnell Gant (3.1 ppg), and Justin Holiday (2.2 ppg). Washington is also a young-ish team like us. Only Dentmon and Brockman are seniors, but having a senior big man like Brockman will pay big dividends.

Despite the fact that Washington is a very good rebounding team, they do not have a lot of size. Of the regular rotation Brockman is the tallest at just 6'7". That tells me their rebounding comes mostly from effort, so we must return he effort in kind. It will be interesting to see how this plays out if we can go big with Hummel, Calasan, and Johnson at the same time. Hummel should have a size advantage out on the perimeter as well. The Huskies are a team that works very hard on the glass. It is a major staple of their offense. If we equal or better this work ethic we will have an excellent chance at moving on against them.

Washington is a good, but not great defensive team. We are well known for our rule of 64 (24-2 when teams score 64 points or less against us, 1-6 when they get 65 or more). Washington is used to playing at a much faster pace than that. They average nearly 79 points per game, but give up 69.5 in return. In every loss they have given up over 73 points, and in six of them the opponent topped 80. We had similar concerns facing Baylor in the first round last season. We then proceeded to play them at their own game and run them out of the gym.

That is what I think will be a major benefit. We are known as a defensive team, but we can play a versatile style such as that. We adjusted last year with essentially the same personnel against Baylor and won easily. I can see Washington getting frustrated with us slowing down the tempo just as much as I can see us running with them. I would rather have the former, but we can compete with the latter. Washington also already commits almost 15 turnovers per game without having to face the defenses of the Big Ten. They actually commit, on average more turnovers than assists. That is not something I would want when facing our defense.

The biggest key to this game is to not get killed on the boards. We have to rebound like we did against Michigan State in Mackey Arena, not like we did against Northwestern. Robbie Hummel had some great boardwork for three days in Indianapolis and it must continue if we are to face the Huskies. It is absolutely critical that we limit Washington to one shot per possession, especially if that one shot comes from someone other than Brockman. The Huskies do get to the foul line quite a bit and hit about 70% once they are there. Because of that, we must stay out of foul trouble, especially with our bigs. If we can play this game at our pace it gives us a huge advantage. I still like our chances even if we play the game at their pace. Purdue 75, Washington 70.

Pac-10 Semifinals Preview: #4 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. #1 Washington Huskies

Cory Williams — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 22:56:54 -0000

ASU has their hands full tonight. After losing both contests to Washington in the regular season, we play our final tilt on a neutral floor, where we are 5-1 on the season (losing only to Baylor in the Anaheim Classic in November).

This is the first time Washington has ever been the #1 seed in the Pac-10 tournament. They are also the only team not to lose two consecutive conference games this season.

What we are dealing with is a consistent, experienced team. Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman are both seniors, and contribute 30 points a game to the cause.

The dynamic freshman Isaiah Thomas is someone who ASU really has to worry about. He averages 15.4 PPG, 3 RPG, and 2.6 APG. He's a stud who is showing no signs of slowing down.

Some more Washington Husky tidbits:

This was UW's first regular season Pac-10 Championship since 1953.
They are a strong rebounding team, averaging 41 a game.
Jon Brockman has 58 career double-doubles, the most of any active college basketball player.
UW is 7-3 on the road in Pac-10 play (including yesterday's win against Stanford)
Washington lost to California twice this season.
Washington opened up the season 3-3, losing to Portland, Kansas, and Florida before going on a 9 game winning streak.

In the first loss of the season by ASU to Washington, Thomas scored 25 points and we lost by 13.

In the second game, Thomas only scored 11, and we took them to overtime and lost by only 3. Coincidence?

I will be at the game, and will post a detailed recap afterwards. The photo essay that will be up this weekend will be very awesome, so keep on the lookout for that.

Prediction: ASU 84, Washington 79

I think we finally break through tonight, and become a legitimate player in March Madness.