SB Nation - Marcus Thornton

BtB 2009-10 Southeastern Conference Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:27:31 -0000

During the two weeks before Selection Sunday last March, I frequently heard these words (or something close) in conversation, "The SEC is going to get more than two or three bids to the Tourney. How can we not? We're the SEC." Of course, it took another surprising run through the SEC Tournament by a team nicknamed the Bulldogs to keep the Southeastern Conference from becoming (gasp) a two bid league. But Mississippi State became the league's second straight surprise auto bid winner. However, just like Georgia in 2008, the boys from Starkville also lost in the first round after getting a low seed.

But it's not like the two SEC teams who earned at-large bids did much better. Ninth seeded Tennessee fell to Oklahoma State in a tight first round contest, while eighth seeded LSU reached round two, where they were outclassed by North Carolina. Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina all ended up in the NIT, where none of the four managed to make it to New York. Vanderbilt won 19 games and didn't even get a postseason bid. All in all, it was a disappointing 2008-09 for a conference used to postseason success.

The good news for the SEC is that the league should be far better this year, thanks to a couple of major coaching hires (as explained in my Coaching Carousel column) and an infusion of new talent (some of whom are listed in my All-Transfer and All-Freshman team columns). But there's a lot more going on in the league than what happened in Lexington and Tuscaloosa this offseason, which I'll explain after the jump.

Let's first take a look at last season's SEC standings.

Southeastern Conference Standings

(updated 3.25.2009 at 10:42 PM EDT)

East	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
South Carolina Gamecocks	10	6	21	10
Tennessee Volunteers	10	6	21	13
Florida Gators	9	7	25	11
Kentucky Wildcats	8	8	22	14
Vanderbilt Commodores	8	8	19	12
Georgia Bulldogs	3	13	12	20

West	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
LSU Tigers	13	3	27	8
Auburn Tigers	10	6	24	12
Mississippi St. Bulldogs	9	7	23	13
Alabama Crimson Tide	7	9	18	14
Mississippi Rebels	7	9	16	15
Arkansas Razorbacks	2	14	14	16

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a school's name appears in red, that's a link to its SBNation site. You can go there for more detailed analysis throughout the season.

West Division

Auburn (last NCAA: 2003) The Tigers fell to Baylor in the NIT quarterfinals last season, a disappointing end to a good season that could've ended in the NCAA Tournament with a marquee win or two. It's going to take a lot for Jeff Lebo's team to reach that level of success this season. Even with the graduation of Rasheem Barrett (9.9 ppg) and Quantez Robertson (6.0 ppg, 3.2 apg), DeWayne Reed (13.2 ppg, 3.7 apg) and Tay Waller (12.1 ppg) anchor a solid backcourt that will give the opposition fits. However, Korvotney Barber and his contributions of nearly 13 points and 10 rebounds a game will be severely missed in the frontcourt, even in Lebo's guard-oriented system. Seniors Brendan Knox and Johnnie Lett will have to step up to fill the void left by Barber's departure, and freshmen Rob Chubb and Ty Armstrong can expect to see playing time as well. Junior college transfer Kenny Gabriel should also see significant time, as he can be a true inside/outside threat for Auburn.

LSU (last NCAA: 2009) Expect the Tigers, last year's SEC regular season champs, to take a step back after the loss of three key starters. F Marcus Thornton and his 21 points per game are gone, so is C Chris Johnson, and the team's heart and soul, PG Garrett Temple. However, LSU still has Tasmin Mitchell, who averaged 16.3 points and 7.2 rebounds last season, while spending time at both small forward and power forward. Guard Bo Spencer is the other returning starter. He's a good shooter (averaging 11.4 ppg while shooting 40% from beyond the arc), but is coming off wrist surgery. Beyond those two, head coach Trent Johnson has his work cut out for him, as none of the other returnees averaged more than 2 points per contest. Expect the newcomers, like G Aaron Dotson (coming off a patellar tendon injury) and Fs Eddie Ludwig and Garrett Green (a medical redshirt last year), to see significant time during the rebuilding process.

Arkansas (last NCAA: 2008) It hasn't been the greatest of offseasons in Fayetteville, where head coach John Pelphrey will suspend at least one player after an offseason rape investigation that resulted in no charges. The possibility of suspensions will make the Razorbacks task of recovering from last season a bit more difficult. The Hogs were in full rebuilding mode last year, but managed to get off to a 12-1 start, featuring wins over regional rivals Oklahoma and Texas. It didn't last, and Arkansas finished bottom of the SEC West with a ghastly 2-14 record. This season, the Razorbacks will again roll out a three-guard lineup in their search for more consistency. That quest starts at point guard, where sophomore Courtney Fortson did a great job of distributing the ball (nearly 6 assists per game), while turning it over far too often (4.4 per game). Rotnei Clark led the nation's freshmen in three point shooting (39.3%), and Stefan Welsh contributed 11.5 oints per game. PF Michael Washington decided to stay in school, which means the Hogs keep their leading scorer (15.5) and conference-leading rebounder (9.8). The biggest reason Arkansas is this low is depth, with only six returning players from last season, Pelphrey will need a lot out of his newcomers to move up the SEC ladder.

Alabama (last NCAA: 2006) Bama alum Mark Gottfried resigned as head coach last January, when it was clear that the Tide would spend a third straight year outside of the NCAAs. Anthony Grant left a good gig at VCU to take the head job, and he's going to try to implement a more up-tempo style in Tuscaloosa. Alabama's biggest issue over the past few seasons has been inconsistent point guard play, especially with Ronald Steele's injuries and eventual departure from the program. Senior Mikhail Torrance (10 ppg, 2.3 apg) moved to the 1 slot after Steele left the program and performed well, though he's more of a natural shooting guard. As Grant implements his offense, watch for 5-9 Anthony Brock and Andrew Steele, Ronald's brother, to get time at the point, so Torrance can move over to his natural position. In the frontcourt, Grant has two 6-9 guys who will need to step it up. JaMychal Green had a decent freshman season, but will need to better his averages of 10.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg. Justin Knox, who averaged 5.7 ppg and 5.1 rpg, should be able to increase both those numbers with more time on the court.

Mississippi (last NCAA: 2002) Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy made headlines for all the wrong reasons last season, when he was arrested for allegedly assaulting a cab driver the night before the Rebels faced his former employer, Cincinnati, in the SEC/Big East Invitational. Things only got worse from there, as Miss lost All-SEC guard Chris Warren to a knee injury during that outing. Add in the fact that the Rebels had already lost Eniel Polynice and Trevor Gaskins to injuries, and it's amazing that they managed 16 wins last year. This season, all three guards are back, making the loss of Florida transfer David Huertas almost inconsequential. Zach Graham, the team's best three point shooter, is also back, giving the Rebels perhaps the best backcourt in the league. Kennedy's frontcourt isn't quite as strong. Sophomore Murphy Holloway will have to improve on his 8.4 points and 6.6 boards per game, while 6-8 freshman Reginald Bucker and 6-9 JC transfer DeAngelo Riley will have to contribute immediately. The fact the Rebels don't quite have the inside force to match Miss State's Varnado means they should finish behind their in-state rivals in the standings.

Mississippi State (last NCAA: 2009) Rick Stansbury recruited Renardo Sidney to provide some support for C Jarvis Varnado inside. However, it doesn't look like the NCAA is going to rule Sidney eligible. Stansbury also got a commitment from 7-2 Sudanese C John Riek, who was finally ruled eligible, but will have to sit out the first 9 games of the season. That means Varnado, who fell ill at one point this summer, will likely see some time as the lone big man on the court if Stansbury runs out a four-guard offense, as he did frequently last season. When you have guards like Dee Bost, Ravern Johnson, Barry Stewart, and Phil Turner who can shoot the three well, that offensive strategy isn't a bad idea. However, with the development of 6-8 Fs Kodi Augustus and Romero Osby (and Riek's eventual eligibility), you can expect to see Varnado get far more frontcourt help. Additionally, Varnado only needs 19 blocks to pass Shaquille O'Neal as the SEC's all-time leader in that category (though Shaq did it in fewer games).

East Division

Georgia (last NCAA: 2008) For some reason, Mark Fox decided to leave a Nevada program he (along with LSU head man Trent Johnson) made into a national name. Fox now replaces Dennis Felton at the helm of a Georgia program that has never fully recovered from the Jim Harrick era, which is now six years in the past. After the graduation of G/F Terrance Woodbury (14.0 ppg), Fox is left with only one double-digit scorer from last season. However, 6-9 F Howard Thompkins is a pretty good player to have on your roster. Thompkins averaged 12.6 points and 7.4 boards per game, and should be even better after an offseason spent on the USA's Under-19 World Championship-winning team. In the backcourt, Dustin Ware should start at point guard, as he averaged 7.2 points and 3.4 dimes per game in 2008-09. After that, Fox has a lot of decisions to make, and that means the Bulldogs will probably be rooted to the bottom of the SEC standings yet again.

South Carolina (last NCAA: 2004) In Darrin Horn's first year at the helm, the Gamecocks managed to tie Tennessee atop the SEC East. Even though they only lost guard Zam Fredrick and his 15.5 points per game, Carolina probably won't reach such heights this season. That's not to say that the Gamecocks won't manage to get back to the NCAAs, something they failed to do last year. Thanks to the return of G Devan Downey (19.8 ppg, 4.5 apg, SEC leading 89 steals) and F Dominique Archie (10.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), the Gamecocks still have some real star power in the lineup. Returning starters Mike Holmes (10.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Sam Muldrow (5.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) should provide even more help to Archie in the frontcourt this season, while JC transfer Johndre Jefferson will be expected to spend time at both small and power forward. In the backcourt, Evaldas Baniulis, after averaging a bit more than 6 points a game while shooting 48 percent from behind the arc, is expected to take a more active role in the offense with the graduation of Fredrick, as is 6-5 swingman Lakeem Jackson, a heralded recruit from Charlotte.

Florida (last NCAA: 2007) Has it really been over two years since the Gators last featured in an NCAA Tournament game? While the days of back-to-back championships may be in the rear-view mirror, Billy Donovan's latest group has the chance to finally get off the bubble. Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin will be eligible this season, and he'll slide into the center position. That will allow Alex Tyus to move back to his natural position, power forward, which will allow Dan Werner to move to small forward. Kenny Kadji should be better in his sophomore year as well, giving the Gators more of a presence inside. More consistency is expected out of swingman Chandler Parsons, whose performances alternate between brilliant and frustrating. In the backcourt, Erving Walker (10.1 ppg, 2.4 apg) will lead the offense after Nick Calathes' departure for Greece. Israeli newcomer Nimrod Tishman could also see time at the point if the NCAA rules him eligible. Impact freshman Kenny Boynton will start at shooting guard. He's expected to be the Gators new three-point threat, though he can also really drive to the hoop.

Vanderbilt (last NCAA: 2008) The Commodores sat at home last postseason, despite finishing the regular season with 7 wins in their last 10. Vandy shouldn't be so unlucky this season. Chemistry should be good, as head coach Kevin Stallings gave up a $100,000 raise so the team could take a scheduled trip to Australia, home country of star C A.J. Ogilvy. Ogilvy averaged 15.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, and those numbers should improve if he stays healthier this season. The 'Dores frontcourt boasts an international flavor beyond their Aussie star with Swede Jeffery Taylor (12.2 ppg. 6.2 rpg) a fixture at small forward, 6-9 Cameroonian PF Steve Tchiengang (3.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg) expected to spend more time in the 4 spot, and 6-11 Nigerian C Festus Ezeli (3.8 ppg. 2.6 rpg) expected to both backup and spend time on the floor with Ogilvy. 6-7 Andre Walker may also return to the starting lineup, after suffering an ACL tear early last season. The backcourt may be more US-centric, but it's still talented. Jermaine Beal (12.5 ppg, 3.2 apg) amd Brad Tinsley (11.0 ppg, 2.8 apg) will take turns running the offense, but 6-4 John Jenkins, the USA's highest scoring high school player last season, will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his inside/outside game. Even if he only manages 25 percent of his senior year average, Jenkins should provide plenty of scoring punch for the Commodores.

Tennessee (last NCAA: 2009) The Volunteers return all five starters in their quest to improve on last year's NCAA first round exit. The best news for the Vols this offseason was Tyler Smith's decision to skip the NBA Draft and return for his senior season. Bruce Pearl is glad he doesn't have to replace Smith's 17.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Wayne Chism (13.7 ppg, 8 rpg) will continue to be a force inside, while 6-10 C Brian Williams will need to improve his scoring (5 ppg) to match his rebounding (5.6 rpg). Bobby Maze (8.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) will run the offense, while J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson, who were forces at both ends of the floor last year, are expected to continue their strong two-way play. Cameron Tatum (7.6 ppg) and Renaldo Woolridge, son of former NBA star Orlando, are going to be Bruce Pearl's key swingmen this season.. Woolridge, who only managed 2.6 points in a little more than 8 minutes a contest, should be improved in his sophomore season. The Vols only personnel loss is a sad story, as Nigerian F Emmanuel Negedu, as he suffered a sudden cardiac arrest last month.

Kentucky (last NCAA: 2008) During my Season Preview series, I've written a fair amount about John Calipari's arrival in Lexington and his stellar recruiting class. Patrick Patterson (17.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg) will lead a strong frontcourt that already features senior Perry Stevenson (7.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg), and will be bolstered by the arrival of the 6-11 DeMarcus Cousins and 6-10 Daniel Orton, two highly coveted recruits. And the backcourt will feature the most highly coveted recruit for this season, 6-4 point guard John Wall, who will be responsible for running Calipari's dribble drive offense. If the chemistry works, the Wildcats will quickly be on their way, and the blue half of the Commonwealth will quickly forget about the Gillispie period.

I'm picking Kentucky to win the overall SEC title, so they'll take the league's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-SEC team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-SEC Team

Player of the Year: Tyler Smith, 6-7 F, Sr. (Tennessee)

Remainder of the Team
Devan Downey, 5-9 G, Sr. (South Carolina)
Tasmin Mitchell, 6-7 F, Sr. (LSU)
Patrick Patterson, 6-9 F, Jr. (Kentucky)
Jarvis Varnado, 6-9 F/C, Sr. (Mississippi State)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the SEC this season?

Alabama

9 votes

Arkansas

9 votes

Auburn

3 votes

Florida

14 votes

Georgia

2 votes

Kentucky

213 votes

LSU

3 votes

Ole Miss

7 votes

Mississippi State

57 votes

South Carolina

5 votes

Tennessee

68 votes

Vanderbilt

17 votes

407 votes | Poll has closed

Super Early 2010 Bracket

Chris Dobbertean — Fri, 03 Jul 2009 16:34:30 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

The return of Sherron Collins is a major reason why Kansas is the top overall seed in Blogging the Bracket's Super Early 2010 Bracket. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, file)

Browse more photos »

Well, here it is. This is my first attempt at putting out a bracket based on pure conjecture, so go easy on me. At the very least, we'll all have something funny to laugh at when the real thing comes out in March.

Some of you probably wanted me to put something out as soon as UNC cut down the nets in Detroit, but I wanted to wait until the draft and recruiting seasons played out. The result is a bracket that will undoubtedly be something to ridicule in March, but is better than anything I could've put out in April.

More specifics after the jump.

The power conferences dominate this field, thanks to the confinued dominance of the Big East and a resurgent SEC--and despite a down Pac-10. The Big East may not have the monster year it had in 2009, but it still has nine teams in this early projection. Cincinnati was a late addition thanks to the signing of Lance Stephenson earlier in the week. Marquette and Seton Hall are knocking on the door, as they are in the First Four Out and Next Four Out groups, respectively.

The Pac-10, meanwhile, is lucky to have four teams in. California, Washington, and UCLA are in good position. Arizona's place in the field will depend on how well their highly-regarded recruiting class adjusts to the college game. Arizona State finds themselves just outside the field thanks to the loss of James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph to the NBA, but a good showing in the NIT Season Tip-Off could catapult their season.

The Big Ten returns the same seven teams who made the field in 2009. Michigan State is on my early top line, but Purdue could easily join or surpass them. The ACC has the same number of teams, six, but Derrick Favors-led Georgia Tech replaces Florida State. UNC and Duke both find themselves on the two line right now.

The SEC should recover from a year which saw them earn an 8 seed, a 9 seed, and a 13 seed. Kentucky would have been on my top line had Jodie Meeks not stayed in the NBA draft. Tennessee should be much improved, while Mississippi State shouldn't need to win the SEC Tournament to get in thanks to the return of Jarvis Varnado. Devan Downey and Dominique Archie's return to South Carolina means the Gamecocks will again be a contender. Florida is back in the field for now, but the Gators' place will depend on how well the recruits adapt to Billy Donovan's system. Vanderbilt joins UF among the Last Four In, while LSU finds themselves just outside after the graduation of Marcus Thornton.

The Big 12, however, looks to be very strong. Kansas and Texas should be excellent and if the new recruits can adequately fill in for the Griffin brothers, Oklahoma as a 5 seed may look very silly. I have them with six entrants, much like 2009. but Kansas State replaces Oklahoma State in this bracket.

Outside of the major conferences, it's not looking so rosy at the moment. The only two at-larges come from the A-10 (Xavier) and C-USA (Memphis, as Tulsa has a chance to break the Tigers stranglehold on the league crown this year). This will undoubtedly change as games are played, however.

I'll talk more about teams and their chances at improving their resumes as I dive into early-season event talk over the next few weeks. In the meantime, have a Happy and safe 4th of July weekend!

Poll

Who is your very early preseason #1?

Kansas

38 votes

Michigan State

6 votes

Texas

10 votes

Villanova

3 votes

Kentucky

19 votes

Someone else (feel free to comment)

13 votes

89 votes | Poll has closed

Knicks Acquiring 28th Pick?

Seth — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 15:48:57 -0000

Might as well turn this into a real post. From Alan Hahn's Twitter, we get the following:

"Knicks bought Minnesota's 28th pick. DW has 2 first rounders now...the plot thickens...."

"Checking on the details of this...not sure you can just buy a 1st Rd pick for $$....must be a player involved."

"Brilliant people tell me it could be the Balkman trade exception that landed this pick. That exception expires in July."

One would imagine that Walsh is stockpiling assets to make an upward move in the lottery. If not, though, I could see the Knicks nabbing the best point guard available at 8, then looking for a shooting guard at 28. Jodie Meeks, Marcus Thornton, Dionte Christmas, Chase Budinger, and Wayne Ellington could all be available.

UPDATE: "Hold up, wait a minute...more intelligence coming my way: 28th is NOT done. An option, one of many, but NOT done."

With the 21st Pick...

atthehive — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:07:27 -0000

Slightly longish post ahead, but it should be worth it. As outlined in yesterday's post, there is some solid statistical backing for the "Blair or Bust" line of thinking. There simply is not a big worth the guaranteed dollars at 21 overall. Unless Blair falls to the level, the Hornets have to be looking elsewhere. But who?

The Candidates

Eric Maynor because... a good percentage of mocks have us taking him. He gained national attention by knocking off Duke that one time and almost knocking off UCLA this year.

Marcus Thornton because... Hornets fans seem to have fallen in love with the guy, and he's a New Orleans product. He gained national attention by winning the Southeastern Conference Player of the Year Award.

Sam Young because... he's 6'6", is athletic, shoots the three, and projects as a plus defender. He gained national attention by averaging 23 points per game in this year's Tournament.

Austin Daye because... he's super long, deep range. He hasn't really gained much national attention yet.

Danny Green because... John Hollinger loves him, and Hollinger usually nails two or three sleepers every year that nobody else is high on. He's gained no national attention despite playing for NC.

Jeff Teague because... he fills a need, he's (ostensibly) friends with Chris Paul. He gained national attention during Wake Forest's rise to #1.

Ty Lawson because... statistically, he may be the best overall player in the draft. He gained national attention by being the PG of North Carolina.

These seven guys comprise my final list, to be culled down to the best option(s). I think I have pretty good reasons for leaving other guys out, some documented towards the end. Definitely leave comments on other prospects, and we can discuss.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Eric Maynor	6'2"	164	6'2"	31.5	46.3	1.9	5.4	36.1	5.8	7.1	81.5	0.5	3.1	3.6	6.2	3.0	1.7	0.2	2.4	22.4

Draft Express says: 8th best PG in draft
Hollinger says: 21st best player in draft
Points/Possession: 1.17
FTA/Posession: 0.37
Ast/Possession: 0.32
TO/Possession: 0.16
Usage%: 28.6%
eFG%: 52%
TS%: 58%

Most people are viewing Maynor as a point guard in this draft, but there are many shooting guard aspects to his game. While he lacks range (36% from the college three isn't terribly inspiring), he took on a large role of his team's offense, accounting for almost 29% of possessions. His solid floor percentages are more due to shots in the ilk of floaters and runners than jumpers. As his career at VCU unfolded, he became more and more of a scorer. So while his 32% assist rate still seems solid, he posted a 49% rate in his first year as starter. There are many aspects of Jannero Pargo's style of play to Maynor's game; a case could be made that Maynor is Pargo with less range. That in mind, the Hornets' decision on Maynor may very well depend on their plans with Pargo. The earliest they can sign Pargo would be July 11th, more than two weeks after the conclusion of the draft. If Maynor is indeed the pick, the writing may be on the wall for Jannero.

Verdict: Maynor has a solid skill set, but his statistics simply don't compare with two point guards (who both played "purer" points in college) who may still be available. Couple that with questions about his conference, and I don't know. It'd be a solid pick, but one with minimal upside.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Marcus Thornton	6'3"	194	6'5"	33	47.2	2.2	5.7	38.8	4.3	5.7	74.5	2.0	3.5	5.5	2.1	1.8	1.6	0.4	2.1	21.1

Draft Express says: 5th best SG in draft
Hollinger says: Not in Top 31
Points/Possession: 1.24
FTA/Posession: 0.33
Ast/Possession: 0.13
TO/Possession: 0.11
Usage%: 25.0%
eFG%: 54%
TS%: 58%

Southeastern Conference Player of the Year usually doesn't mean much, because the SEC produces 1 or 2 great NBA prospects a year, max. But there's a lot to like with Marcus Thornton. Physically, he's got good tools. The 6'3" measurement is an immediate red flag for a guy that plays exclusively shooting guard, but I love his release on his shot. He gets it off quite surreptitiously, and the 6'5" wingspan aids with that. On top of that, he generally makes the most of his 33 inch vertical in terms of his jumpers- something he has to do, but something a lot of prospects don't make a habit of.

While his 38-39% three point shooting doesn't look other worldly, a lot of those looks did come under heavy pressure. I like his range overall, and I wouldn't be surprised if he could maintain a 35%-40% stroke in the NBA. He isn't the fastest guy in the world, but the Hornets wouldn't be drafting him to be a Jason Terry/Jannero Pargo-like speed option (even though that's Draft Express' comparison). Rather, they'd be drafting him to fill up the scoreboard in a hurry, mostly through sets. Thornton's 1.24 points/possession is an impressive stat indeed; he's a creative scorer. The one odd thing is, though he's more of a scoring threat (efficiency-wise) than Maynor, he used substantially fewer possessions than Maynor. Maybe this will amount to nothing, but his 25% rate is lower than a lot of the top scorers in the NCAA's. It's something of a red flag in terms of how much "volume" he could actually provide as a volume scorer.

The final stat that intrigues me is the 11% turnover rate. As much as he handles the ball, it's very impressive. Observationally, I don't think he has nearly the vision to play point guard though. His low assist rate of 13% back that up, as does his pure point ratio of -1.36 (positive indicating "purer"). So while the turnover rate may come in handy, I don't think it'd help much in terms of him getting point guard minutes. At 6'3", and with his skill set, Thornton would step in as a "pure shooting guard," a position that's disappeared a little bit in recent years, in favor of swingmen and guys that can rotate between the 2 and 3.

Verdict: Like Maynor, there are a lot of "safe" aspects to a Thornton pick. He's a very efficient scorer, he has a well set position, he doesn't turn the ball over. But again, the cost of that safety is minimal upside. Who he is today is likely very similar to who he'll be in three years.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Sam Young	6'6"	223	6'11"	33	50.2	1.6	4.2	37.3	3.2	4.3	74.0	1.9	4.3	6.3	1.1	2.4	1.0	0.8	1.7	19.2

Draft Express says: 3rd best SF in draft
Hollinger says: 52
Points/Possession: 1.17
FTA/Posession: 0.26
Ast/Possession: 0.07
TO/Possession: 0.15
Usage%: 24.4%
eFG%: 55%
TS%: 58%

Sam Young really made a name for himself this year, averaging almost 20 a night for the season, then performing even better in the Tournament. It's interesting how split analysts are on Young. There's one crowd that believes he can step in and contribute minutes to virtually any team in the league at this point. The other viewpoint is that he's an old prospect who may have been vastly overvalued by the 2008-2009 campaign.

Physically, the tools are all there. He's 6'6", athletic, has a very long wingspan at 6'11" and a decent vertical for his size. His frame could easily be more bulked up if that's what a team needs, and he's already at a good weight right now anyways. The problem is, despite the gaudy scoring averages, the underlying statistics give me reason to pause. A 15% turnover rate from a small forward who didn't do too much ball-handling (LeVance Fields was one of the top point guards in the country) is a flag. A 7% assist rate indicates that he virtually never set up teammates for anything. It's a serious flag for a wing player, as even well-reputed ballhogs often create opportunities for their teammates, via double teams. His 26% free throws per possession is more about 10% lower than either Maynor or Thornton. It makes me seriously wonder how he'll adapt to the contact game of the NBA. And if that wasn't enough, his 24.4% usage rate doesn't do much to increase his value.

Looking specifically at the Hornets, Young is a Julian Wright clone in many ways. Similar height, long wingspans, questionable ball control skills. Young clearly has the better stroke and better strange, but would it be worth using the 21st pick to get Julian Wright with a better jump shot (maybe)? And the age issue is not to be overlooked. Young is already 24 years old, way, way older than most other rookies.

Verdict: Very little upside. This is who he'll be in the NBA. His peripheral statistics are somewhat alarming, he's been overhyped a little due to Pitt's run, and he could very well be a redundant player on our roster. I'm taking Maynor and Thornton over him.

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Austin Daye	6'11"	192	7'3"	28	47.7	1.1	2.5	42.9	2.3	3.2	70.6	1.1	5.8	6.8	1.1	2.1	0.7	2.1	2.9	12.7

Draft Express says: 2nd best SF in draft
Hollinger says: 4th best Player in draft
Points/Possession: 1.09
FTA/Posession: 0.28
Ast/Possession: 0.09
TO/Possession: 0.18
Usage%: 16.8%
eFG%: 53%
TS%: 56%

After a freshman campaign that left Zags fans drooling, Daye's game took something of a dive this year. His points/possession went down, his assist rate went down, his turnover rate stayed poor, he drew fewer fouls. Of course, analysts are all mostly in love with the guy now. Go figure.

Statistically, Daye leaves much to be desired. His points/possession of 1.09 is far lower than any of the other guys on this list; he was simply not very efficient on offense. For his size, he doesn't get to the line very often (more than Young, but less than either Maynor or Thornton). He showed zero ability as a passing big man, averaging 9 assists every 100 possessions. Unfortunately, he did turn the ball over a ton, almost double as often as he assisted on baskets. His usage rate was quite low, as Gonzaga relied on a variety of other players to make their Tournament run.

As you might have guessed, there's a large school of people that feel statistics won't tell the whole story on Daye. I am one of those people. As poor as his stats have been, the guy is 6'11" with small forward skills. He has a 7'3" wingspan. He has a standing reach of over nine feet. Add in a 28 inch vertical, and Daye's hands will be somewhere around eleven feet and a half in the air when he jumps. His pace-adjusted block statistics aren't noteworthy, but from the four or five times I've seen him play, I've found him to be more of a "Tyson Chandler shot blocker"- he'll challenge and alter a lot more shots than the box score credits him for.

On top of that, he has range. NBA range. He shot 41.3% from three last year and 42.9% from three this year. In two years, he's averaged taking around 4 threes per game. He can shoot off the dribble, has good ball handling skills for his size, can create shots, has excellent coordination, and though is a terrible offensive rebounder, he's as good a defensive rebounder as Greg Oden and Paul Millsap were in college. He turned 21 a couple weeks ago. Does he have flaws? Absolutely. But if Daye could pass and score more efficiently, he'd be a lottery pick. Those two issues mean he's almost guaranteed to be available at 21. I'd take Thornton over him probably, but if Pargo is in our future plans, I'd take him over Maynor. Over Young, I'd take him without thinking.

Verdict: Major, major, major upside. Major crash and burn potential. The clincher for me is that John Hollinger's draft analyzer loves him. Every year, it pinpoints a couple guys that could vastly outperform their stock, and Daye looks like the pick this year. He doesn't fit an immediate need, but I wouldn't be terribly depressed if he was the pick.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Danny Green	6'5"	208	6'10"	33	47.1	2.0	4.7	43.0	1.4	1.6	85.2	1.8	2.8	4.7	2.7	1.7	1.8	1.3	2.2	13.1

Draft Express says: 9th best SF in draft
Hollinger says: 8th best Player in draft
Points/Possession: 1.20
FTA/Posession: 0.15
Ast/Possession: 0.25
TO/Possession: 0.15
Usage%: 14.3%
eFG%: 57%
TS%: 59%

This is another one of Hollinger's favorites, the only reason he's on this list. I figure if I included Hollinger's take on Daye, I had to include Green. However, I don't agree with Hollinger that Green is going to be great. The Draft Rater has him as the 3rd best wing, behind Tyreke Evans and Daye.

His efficiency numbers are all excellent, but the reason behind it is very clear- he's primarily a shooter, a very good shooter. The majority of his looks come on jumpers, often set up by his very good teammates at North Carolina. He doesn't draw fouls, and based on my observations of him, he probably won't be making many contact filled forays to the hole in the NBA. Another factor is his low usage rate of 14.3%. Essentially, Green was a very good role player at the college level. That simply isn't the player the Hornets should be targeting in this draft. Green could end up being a very good fit for a team looking to add depth (Utah? L.A.?), but he doesn't have the off-the-dribble ability of Maynor/Thornton, or the superstar potential of Daye.

Verdict: I'd take him 7th among the 7 players on this list.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Jeff Teague	6'0"	175	6'8"	37	48.5	1.5	3.3	44.1	5.8	7.1	81.4	0.5	2.8	3.3	3.5	3.4	1.9	0.6	2.2	18.9

Draft Express says: 4th best SG in draft
Hollinger says: 14th best Player in draft
Points/Possession: 1.15
FTA/Posession: 0.43 (!!!!)
Ast/Possession: 0.22
TO/Possession: 0.20
Usage%: 21.9%
eFG%: 55%
TS%: 62%

A 6 foot point guard, weighing 175 pounds, with a 38 inch vertical, a lane agility of 11.1, and a 3 quarter court sprint time of 3.2 seconds, hailing from Wake Forest University. Even if Jeff Teague was absolutely terrible, Hornets fans would've stood up and taken notice, because those were exactly the draft measurements of one Chris Paul. But Teague doesn't suck at all- far from it. According to the latest estimations, it's unlikely he falls to 21, but it's worth going over him anyway to see where he should be on our draft board.

A lot of places have Teague listed as a shooting guard, and for good reason. In two years, he posted pure point ratios of -3.04 and -3.17. He posted the measley assist rates of 19% and 22% while posting 79% and 73% FGA/possession. He's decidedly a shoot first guard, to an extreme relative to the college level. His turnover levels were 19% and 20% (better than Chris Paul in college for what it's worth). But he doesn't carry nearly the assist:turnover ratio Paul did.

In essence, Teague played shooting guard from the point guard position, inflating his PG stats tremendously. That doesn't mean he can't score at all. He certainly has some great tools. He shot 44% from three last year, displaying good range. His most promising statistic is 43% FTA/possession. That's not just promising; it's amazing. The ability to get to the free throw line is a great indicator of NBA success for college players (it's probably the definitive statistic that set Chris Paul way apart from Deron Williams in college).

So I'm not saying Teague is all hype. What I am contending is that he isn't too much of a "combo" guard like many reports suggest. I think he lacks the point guard element of the combo guard to enough of an extent that he'd struggle if played at PG without another PG on the floor. In the long run, that means he won't be an Antonio Daniels replacement. Is it worth using a draft pick on that?

Verdict: He's a legitimate scorer. If we're drafting for a combo guard, Maynor is the better option. If we're drafting for a creative scorer at the 2, Teague is a better option than Thornton, but Thornton's 3 inch advantage on Teague makes me think he'd be more successful at getting minutes and translating his game to the NBA. Overall, there's only a 1% chance we'd need to make a decision on Teague, since one of the 20 preceding teams is guaranteed to be tricked into thinking he's a full time point guard.

						3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	Height	Weight	Wingspan	Vertical	FG%	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
2008 - Ty Lawson	6'0"	197	6'1"	37	53.2	1.5	3.1	47.2	4.7	5.9	79.8	0.7	2.3	3.0	6.6	1.9	2.1	0.1	1.7	16.6

Draft Express says: 7th best PG in draft
Hollinger says: 1st best Player in draft (!!!!)
Points/Possession: 1.30 (!!!!)
FTA/Posession: 0.47 (!!!!)(!!!!)
Ast/Possession: 0.51
TO/Possession: 0.15
Usage%: 16.8%
eFG%: 61% (!!!!)
TS%: 66%

Take note of all those exclamations. Ty Lawson posted some truly off the wall statistics in 2008-2009. The contention is that there was some tremendous statistical inflation going on due to North Carolina's ridiculously fast system. But a closer look shows that Lawson actually was very, very good.

Let's start with something nobody is questioning: Lawson's shot. He has maybe the best range of any guard prospect, shooting a wacky 47% from three this year. If his three point shot doesn't translate to the NBA level, I will be absolutely stunned. Nothing's a guarantee obviously, but this is as close as it gets. I love his form, and the way he gets into position off a dribble. On top of his long range abilities, Lawson is also one of the top finishers in college basketball. So his very high eFG% is not only a reflection of his deep ball talent, but also of his skill close to the hoop. And nobody's questioning his ability to draw contact. His 47% FTA/possession rate is simply amazing, and as much as you want to talk about system inflation, it certainly points to some serious underlying talent.

The one statistic I accept may be somewhat inflated is the assist ratio. Lawson averaged a 51% rate last year (actually down from his freshman rate of 59%). Pace adjusting can simply level the possession playing field, but it can't take into account the fact that Lawson absolutely dominated the fast break. There certainly wasn't a better fast break field general in America. Will he get that many fast break opportunities in the NBA? Obviously not. The defenders are more athletic, will get back faster, and will cut off passing lanes with ease. But to point out only the inflation of assists and to ignore the turnover rate is a serious error. Lawson's 15% turnover rate, in a fast break environment requiring rapid decision making, is yet another impressive attribute.

At best, Lawson could be one of the most talented point guard prospects in a long while. At worst, his assist numbers are somewhat inflated, and he's not as good a passer as people thought. So? The shot is for real. The decision making is for real. His driving ability is real. His defense is real.

Verdict: I know I said yesterday that I'd take DeJuan Blair over any guard/wing prospects... but I don't know. If he's available, I'd take Lawson in a heartbeat out of these 7.

Who Didn't Make This List?

Chase Budinger: Great stats, but workouts have revealed that he'd much rather stand and shoot than drive and force the action. A stand-still shooter with questionable defense is the last thing the Hornets should look to add this summer.

Terrence Williams: He's primarily a defensive stopper with highly questionable offensive skills and the inability to create a shot (though he is an awesome passer). With Posey and Wright aboard, that seems redundant.

Jodie Meeks: Meeks is a terrific, undervalued scorer. I think apprehensions about his lack of athleticism will prove misguided because he has amazing range, took on a huge scoring responsibility with ease, drew a lot of fouls, and was one of the most efficient scorers in the country. But I don't think his stock is high enough for the Hornets to even think about taking him at 21. Is that undeserved? Absolutely. That's just how the draft goes some times.

Tyler Hansbrough: Very poor rebounding numbers. As much as his "toughness" has been touted, I (and the numbers) simply don't see it. See yesterday's Blair or Bust post if you're not convinced.

So Who's the Pick?

I'd put the board in this order:

DeJuan Blair
Ty Lawson
Marcus Thornton
Eric Maynor
Austin Daye
Jeff Teague
Jodie Meeks
Sam Young
Chase Budinger
Danny Green

Blair and Lawson have to be considered nearly equivalent in terms of talent, but the larger need at frontcourt puts Blair over the top. Whether or not Pargo comes back could really influence things too. If Pargo is in the Hornets' plans (as in, they know for sure they'll sign him on July 11th), I would push Daye over Maynor for sure. I've got Teague only at 6 because I consider Maynor a better version of him, more or less. Teague showed terrific scoring skills in college, but at 6'0", he won't have nearly the same scoring role or chances in the NBA. Basically, his most valuable skill set will be underutilized, and Maynor's previously shown passing ability will be given more opportunity to resurface in the NBA. So Maynor is the better combo guard in my eyes. If Blair, Lawson, Thornton, and Daye are off the board by #21, that's when I'd consider trading the pick. That would seem to be the line at which the pick ceases to have too much value to the Hornets, but could still be valuable for other teams.

If we get #1 or 2 on that list, I'll be extraordinarily happy. #3 through 6 would evoke a sound "meh" although Austin Daye is intriguing. #7 and below or any non-Blair big men could be filed into the Summer of 2008 disaster cabinet. This will truly be a difficult draft to navigate.

Monday Morning Press (and Twitter) Clippings

Zach B — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 14:43:17 -0000

2011 Gonzaga prospect Kyle Wiltjer (right) stands with current San Antonio Spur and former Kansas standout Drew Gooden. (courtesy: TheShiver.com)

View full size photo »

We are just about a week away from the last day to withdraw from the NBA Draft and it's becoming quite clear how repetitive the workout reports are getting. This week should once again be chock-full with workouts for the four former Zags hoping to become draftees. And now for the news...

kevin c. (seatownsports) on Twitter

austin daye has made his decision. but we can't reveal his choice to protect our source. news should come out soon.

Being the twitter addict that I am, I had to put this up first this morning to show all the non-users that big things to happen on Twitter. Kevin C. who is an occasional commenter/fanshoter around these parts, writes the excellent SeaTownSports blog which covers every aspect of Seattle sports from high school all the way up to the bigs. He passed along that little piece of information regarding Austin Daye on Twitter a few days ago. I have a lot of trust in the Twitter device so I assume Kevin to know. If I had the guts to be a betting man...I'd have to put money on Daye being bye-bye.

DraftExpress: Reebok Eurocamp, Day Two

One NBA team mentioned being told quite confidently by Damion James that he is most certainly staying in the draft, and most assume that Gonzaga’s Austin Daye is a lock to stay in.

More on the Austin Daye-front. Like what we have been hearing for a while now, it seems like he's got one foot out the door at this point. I would think that we would start hearing some thoughts about coming back since his most recent workouts haven't been given the best grades. He's been called weak and a Prima Donna recently but if a team can tell him he will be in the top-20, that is all he needs.

HORNETS: Hornets.com: Big Easy Buzz Blog

I'm really excited about this piece from the New Orleans Hornets official blog because it is the first time I have heard about Jeremy Pargo in quite a long time. It seems odd that Pargo was testing the waters last season and now we can not find one single thing about his workouts or anything. Anyways, Pargo will be working out for the Hornets today and this is probably the first workout group I would love to watch. Participating with Pargo today is LSU's Marcus Thornton, Miami's Jack McClinton, UCF's Jermaine Taylor, VCU's Eric Maynor, and UCLA's Darren Collison. This is an intriguing group of guards that all do different things well on the basketball court and it should be a great measuring stick for Jeremy. Hopefully the Hornets get plenty of video from today's workout.

BULLS: Bulls conducting pre-draft workouts

Josh Heytvelt has a few days off before his next workout with the Chicago Bulls on the 10th of June. This should give him some much-needed rest as some of his most recent workout reports have been a bit suspect. He'll need the rest as he is going against DeJuan Blair once again.

Elite Camp a Success for Wiltjer | The Shiver, Kansas Jayhawks Sports, Kansas Basketball, Kansas Football

Really nice article done by ESPN's Kansas affiliate about Kyle Wiltjer's visit to Kansas this past weekend. Included in the article is a picture of Wiltjer with NBA player Drew Gooden who sponsors Kyle's AAU team. I was stunned by how tall Kyle was in comparison to Drew. Kyle seems like a very intelligent kid who is expecting some big offers to come soon to go along with ones from Gonzaga and Arizona State. Cal, Kentucky, and Kansas have all expressed interest and apparently Bill Self was chatting with him quite a bit. He maintains that location is not a big thing for him at all so Gonzaga will have their work cut out for them to keep this kid in the Pac-Northwest.

Eight Minutes, Thirty Seconds

T.H. — Tue, 07 Apr 2009 12:08:30 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

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That's the amount of time UNC trailed in the 240 minutes of play during the NCAA Tournament. Breaking it down:

Radford The Heels never trailed.
LSU 75 assorted seconds in the first half, stretching from 18:52 until UNC took the lead at 15:44 on a Wayne Ellington three to make it 9-8.
LSU 17:04-16:26 LSU takes a 42-41 lead that lasts until Ty Lawson ties it at 44-44.
LSU 15:11-11:12 The longest stretch UNC trailed, from a score of 47-44 until the Heels regained the lead at 56-54
LSU 10:52-10:30 Marcus Thorton hits his a three to go up 57-56, and Ty Lawson responds 22 seconds later to make it 57-56. UNC would never trail in the second half
Gonzaga, 19:45-19:35 Gonzaga leads 1-0, until Tyler Hansbrough makes a jumper.
Gonzaga, 19:23-18:48 Gonzaga leads 3-2, until Ty Lawson hits a three.
Oklahoma The Heels never trailed
Villanova 19:38-18:42 Villanova leads 2-0, until Wayne Ellington ties it with a jumper.
Villanova 18:21-18:05 Villanova leads 4-2, until Ty Lawson hits a three.
Michigan State 19:13-18:54 Michigan State leads 3-2 until Danny Green hits a three.

Eight minutes, thirty seconds. Two minutes, sixteen seconds after the opening weekend. That's just indescribable.

UNC 84, LSU 70

T.H. — Sun, 22 Mar 2009 16:16:04 -0000

Ty Lawson's toe knows no bounds.

OK, it knows some bounds, sending him to the bench a few times in the first half, and slowing the guard down more effectively than the Tigers perimeter defense. But by the second half, he could not be stopped, scoring 21 of his 23 points after the break to allow UNC to finally pull away after the six-minute mark.

The six-minute mark was also when two things went wrong for LSU. First, Chris Johnson, the center whose four blocks and defensive pressure in a loosely-called game had been giving UNC fits on the interior, picked up his fourth foul and went to the bench. (He certainly was held there too long, not returning until 2:30 remaining with his team down 13.) Second, Danny Green got a handle on guarding Marcus Thornton, who was the Tigers only scorer for a nine minute stretch in the second half that kept LSU in the game. With him shut down, Lawson approaching full speed, and the LSU layers sucking wind - only seven got any serious time on the court - and the team just collapsed, allowing UNC to run away late.

Perimeter shootingwise, Ellington continued is postseason success, making at least three three-pointers for the fourth straight game and breaking twenty points for the third. Danny Green continued to struggle, as he hasn't gone off since the Georgia tech game, but made up for it on the defensive end. And Bobby Frasor's unwillingness to shoot is actually bothering me, but UNC seems to end up with points when he passes up the open looks, so it just be a personal thing on my part.

Other observations from seeing the game live:

LSU fans were very uncomfortable having the Duke fans - once they finally showed midway through the game - on their side. And once Duke-Texas started, the LSU fans were mute. A fair number of UNC fans, on the other hand, actually had Texas gear in reserve for the second game. They were quieter though, as cheering for Texas is still a little tough for a lot of Carolina fans.
The NCAA has gone into total messaging lockdown at the tournament site. All stadium ads have ben covered by NCAA-branded temporary signs. The courts are NCAA provided and festooned with NCAA logos, hence the uniform appearance across al the tournament sites. (It does mean the end of the hazardous floor stickers of years past, but it's still creepy.)
The NCAA also does not feel the need to show any remotely controversial play in replay on the scoreboard, or keep people informed about other NCAA tournament games. At best we'd get score updates once or twice a game. There were a boatload of highlights from tournaments past, and ads for every NCAA even within a 300 mile radius in the next six months. (Raleigh has a gymnastics regional! West Virginia, a golf regional! Yawn.)
Lawson got the biggest cheer the first time he ran full speed down the court for a layup. I think everyone was happy the toe didn't explode or anything.
I'd have pictures, but the Greensboro Coliseum was in full-lockdown mode. On the trip back to the car to stow the camera though, I got to see a traffic cop hold up a line of cars solely because a Duke fan wouldn't stop honking. That was fun.
Does anyone else find Duke fans wearing "Cameron Crazies" shirts (with the Nike logo, natch) to just be silly? It's like wearing a shirt that says "Fan."

Kentucky 57, LSU 68: Postmortem

Truzenzuzex — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 19:49:08 -0000

Despite a strong effort, Kentucky fell to LSU today. Kentucky's leading scorers had all kinds of difficulty getting the ball int the basket, primarily due to the outstanding effort by the Tigers. I was really hopeful that Jodie could get Temple into foul trouble, but Temple played nearly flawless defense on Meeks and shut him down almost completely.

Congratulations to LSU on an amazing effort. I was concerned that two losses in a row might focus the minds of the Tigers, and sure enough, you would have to say it did. They were the fresher team the whole game, and even though UK gave a really strong effort, they just could not get the job done against a rested, determined and mature LSU team.

Obviously, I am very disappointed in the loss, but I find little to criticize from the coach. In general, his substitutions made sense, and the team played hard. The fact of the matters is, Kentucky just could not execute soundly against LSU's defense. I think the screening for Meeks was pretty weak today, which also contributed to his futility.

Further observations:

Patrick Patterson may have had a double-double, but this was surely not his best game. He was too soft on offense, but he played pretty well defensively. He also played almost every minute of the game.
The outrageous number of offensive rebounds in the first half negated an outstanding defensive effort in the last 10 minutes of the first stanza. That allowed LSU to stay ahead rather than about 10 points behind, and contributed directly to this loss.
Ramon Harris just couldn't contain Thornton today. He was just too tough. Harris played good basketball all around, though, and I have a hard time being too critical of him. If there is any player on this team that gets the most out of his talent, it is Harris.
Meeks just had one of those games, very greatly impeded by the fantastic defense by Garrett Temple. I think Meeks' teammates let him down by not setting better screens, but that has been a problem all year. This time, Jodie was unable to manufacture a way to score. Five turnovers and getting up only nine shots is just not going to win many games for this team.
Micheal Porter played pretty well. He made some big shots, but also made some defensive mistakes. But overall, I thought he did about as well as he possibly could.
Kevin Galloway had a fairly good game if you can ignore the outrageous turnover in his first minute or two and the fact he had zero assists. But he did ave four rebounds.
LSU simply killed us on the glass. How did they do it? They were the fresher team, and that's where that stat showed up. UK was slow getting to the glass, and they were not strong with the basketball. LSU had 17 offensive rebounds vs. Kentucky's 8.
LSU got up 16 more shots than UK. Ball game.
UK's free throw shooting was loathsome for this team. I guess they were due to cool off from the line, and at the end of the year, they surely did.
UK had 15 turnovers, but most of them happened in the first half and robbed UK of the opportunity to build up a lead in the last 10 minutes of that stanza. I feared that would come back to haunt the 'Cats, and it surely did.
What the heck are the Raycom guys doing peddling rumors about Kentucky? Are they trying to win the National Inquirer Rumormonger of the Year Award, or what?
Does it strike anyone as particularly onerous that announcers are referring to Gillispie as "embattled" after only two seasons at Kentucky? Might I also point out that both of those seasons were winning seasons? Un-Kentuckylike, yes, but for God's sake -- embattled??

I am very glad that this year is almost over. Honestly, if I have to listen to one more ridiculous rumor or outrageous comment about Kentucky, I may well lose my religion. I wish the media would just deal with reality as it is, and quit trying to give it more "character."

I hope Kentucky does well in the NIT, even though I hate having to play in that tournament with a purple passion. But even with that said, they are ball games we should try our level best to win. If we wind up somehow hanging an NIT banner in Rupp's Rafters in a 3am Monday morning ceremony, the least I can do is stand up and salute that effort. If we get beat early, it just means a merciful end to a miserable season for the Big Blue Nation.

I can live with that also.

SEC Tournament: Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU

Ken Howlett — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 13:02:23 -0000

Reversal of Fortune

The Kentucky Wildcats (20-12, 9-8) experienced a trend reversal in yesterday's opening round 71-58 victory over the Ole Miss Rebels: It's the first time all year that UK has won a game in which they were outscored from the three-point line. Ole Miss notched five made threes, while UK wasn't "feelin' it" from long distance, going only 1-10.

The victory also halted UK's unpleasant four game losing streak, keeping alive their slim hopes for a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

How did they win? They won with defense, an aspect of their game that has been a dismal failure of late. But yesterday, UK held Ole Miss to only 20 points, and 31.8% field goal shooting in the second half, after allowing the Rebels to make 14-26 shots (53.8%) in the opening stanza. UK also took care of the basketball, committing only 10 turnovers to Mississippi's 18, which resulted in another reversal of fortune: UK outscored their opponent by 16 points in the points off turnovers category.

Continuing UK's reversal of fortune (Claus von Bulow would be proud): The 'Cats placed four players in double figures, with Jodie Meeks leading the way with 25 points, followed by Patrick Patterson's 15 (and 14 boards). Perry Stevenson must have eaten his Wheaties for breakfast because he showed signs of life with 13 points and eights rebounds (4 offensive), and late-comer Darius Miller chipped in with 12 points on 5-9 shooting.

And finally, what has been UK's undoing all season, offensive rebounding, was a strength yesterday. The 'Cats grabbed six more offensive boards than the Rebels, allowing UK to outscore Ole Miss by five in second chance points.

In order for UK to continue their improbable run toward the SEC Championship game, they must once again execute defensively and play smartly. Because today against the SEC Regular season champion, the #16 ranked LSU Tigers (25-6, 13-3), they will be facing an experienced-laden team that isn't prone to making the same mistakes as the depleted Ole Miss Rebels.

LSU Tigers

On February 28, LSU invaded Rupp Arena and came away with a hard-earned 73-70 victory: LSU junior forward Tasmin Mitchell nailed a three-pointer with 9.8 seconds remaining to seal the victory for the Tigers.

UK head coach Billy Gillispie said this after the loss --

"We're just not a mature enough team to beat a team that is smart and mature like LSU is."

Have the 'Cats grown-up? They certainly took a positive step toward maturity yesterday.

Gillispie placed the blame for the earlier LSU loss squarely on his own shoulders. Saying that his decision to take out Ramon Harris at the 10:54 mark of the second half with UK up 54-44, cost the Wildcats the game. Gillispie noted after the game that Harris "looked like he was having a heart attack," which is why he removed the junior G/F from the game. Gillispie also stated that he was worried that Harris may have been suffering some type of after-effect related to his head injury suffered earlier in the year.

Regardless, UK went from up 10, to up only two points in Harris' four-and-a-half minute absence (he re-entered the game at the 6:35 mark), but more importantly newly minted Conference Player of the Year Marcus Thornton caught fire, scoring 15 late points (19 total second half points), carrying the Tigers to victory.

Kentucky also "accomplished" a rarity in the first LSU game: They lost despite shooting 60.7% in the second half (17-28). Meeks and Patterson were a combined 13-21 from the field (61.9%) in the second half, and accounted for 29 UK points. But it wasn't enough to overcome a 15-9 LSU advantage in second chance points, as well as a Tiger win in the points off turnovers battle (18-15).

But, the primary reason for the Tiger victory was once again a lack of perimeter defense by Kentucky -- LSU made 9-20 three-point shots (45.0%), dwarfing UK's 3-14 effort from beyond the arc (21.4%), and off-setting UK's huge advantage in points in the paint (46-24).

LSU Personnel -- Conference Games Only

Marcus Thornton: 6-4, 205 lb senior guard -- Thornton averages 22.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.6 steals per game. He's shooting 46.5% from the field, 38.5% from beyond the arc (37-96), and 78.9% from the free throw line.

In the first game -- Thornton scored 23 points on 8-23 shooting (2-7 threes), grabbed nine rebounds, dished out four assists and committed two turnovers.

Tasmin Mitchell: 6-7, 235 lb junior forward -- He's averaging 18.4 points, 8.1 rebounds (2.9 offensive), 2.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game. He shoots 53.9% from the field, 58.3% from the three-point line (7-12), and 73.6% from the free throw line.

In the first game -- Mitchell scored 21 points on 9-13 shooting (1-2 threes), gathered eight rebounds, had two assists, FIVE steals, three turnovers, and hit the previously-mentioned game-winning three-pointer.

Bo Spencer: 6-1, 185 lb sophomore guard -- Spencer is averaging 11.1 points, 2.6 assists, and 2.5 rebounds per game. He makes 40.3% of his shots, 40.3% of his three-point tries (25-62), and 81.5% of his free throws.

In the first game -- He scored 16 points, making 6-12 shots (4-7 threes). He dished out three assists, had two steals and two turnovers.

Garrett Temple: 6-6, 195 lb senior guard -- Temple averages 7.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. He's shooting 35.8% from the floor, 29.8% from beyond the arc (14-47), and 81.4% from the charity stripe.

In the first game -- Temple scored one point, had one rebound, one assist, three blocks and one turnover.

Chris Johnson: 6-11, 210 lb senior center -- Johnson is averaging 7.8 points, 7.7 rebounds (2.7 offensive), and 3.4 blocks per game. He's shooting 49.5% from the field, and 87.5% from the free throw line (14-16).

In the first game -- In 14 minutes of action Johnson scored two points (1-3 shooting), had four rebounds, one assist, one turnover, and was generally abused by Patrick Patterson.

Terry Martin: 6-6, 210 lb senior guard -- Martin is averaging 4.7 points, and 2.7 rebounds per game. He makes 34.6% of his shots, 27.3% of his threes (9-33), and 66.7% of his free throws.

In the first game -- In 18 minutes he scored eight points on 3-4 shooting (2-3 threes), nabbed one rebound, dished out one assist, had one steal, one block and one turnover.

CliffsNotes Analysis

This is Patrick Patterson's day!

The big fella dominated the paint in the earlier LSU game, scoring 28 points on 12-17 shooting. He also grabbed nine rebounds. LSU simply has no answer for UK's big man. Feeding the post early and often should be a large part of Billy Gillispie's game-plan -- Let Patterson carry UK on his substantial shoulders, and with Perry Stevenson's renewed interest the 'Cats have a dual-threat post presence for the first time in several weeks.

Conference Coach of the Year Trent Johnson will once again pressure Jodie Meeks with Tasmin Mitchell, Marcus Thornton and Garrett Temple so UK will have to run some offensive sets to get their star guard some open looks (Meeks was 10-22 from the field, but only 1-9 from behind the arc in the first game).

I suspect that Ramon Harris will take on Marcus Thornton once again. UK's lock-down defender did an exceptional job on LSU's scoring machine in the first match-up. A repeat performance for the "Alaskan Assassin" will go a long way in helping UK secure their second victory in a row.

Michael Porter must take care of the ball as he did yesterday against Ole Miss -- He committed only one turnover, and had three assists. LSU isn't known for pressuring the ball, so Porter will have the opportunity to run the offense relatively hassle-free.

But most importantly, Kentucky's defense must show up as it did yesterday. When UK plays frenetic, active defense, they usually win. Today's game should be no different.

Thanks for reading, and Go 'Cats, beat the Tigers!

Sprints // 03.11.09

cocknfire — Wed, 11 Mar 2009 05:01:59 -0000

Basketball Awards. Coach of the Year goes to LSU's Trent Johnson, no real surprise after Darrin Horn's South Carolina team had trouble handling success. Johnson's team was the best of a down SEC, so we'll likely have to wait for the NCAA tournament to find out how good they really are.

Marcus Thornton, also of LSU, was Player of the Year.

The First Team All-SEC selections:

Pos	Name	Team
G	Nick Calathes	Florida
G	Jodie Meeks	Kentucky
F	Patrick Patterson	Kentucky
F	Tasmin Mitchell	LSU
G	Marcus Thornton	LSU
F/C	Jarvis Varnado	Mississippi State
G	Devan Downey	South Carolina
F	Tyler Smith	Tennessee

The rest of the awards are here.

Play ball! Auburn beats Alabama, 8-7, in your first SEC baseball game of the year. All other SEC teams win, except Arkansas, who managed to make four errors in three innings to lose to Centenary. Yes, Centenary. The most impressive non-conference win of the day might belong to Vanderbilt, which shellacked Lipscomb, 22-4.

Now might be a good time to mention that there are actually two SEC baseball games on television Sunday. For those of you with Cox Sports Television, Florida visits Arkansas at 2 p.m. ET. On CSS, Alabama hosts Georgia at 3 p.m. ET.

Another view on crime and punishment. Alligator Army reminds us that athletes are really just students -- and that many students face heavy-handed punishment without all the publicity.

While [Florida baseball player Stephen Kendall] Locke is an extreme case, an athlete who gets his charge dropped, the average student who gets a DUI is out of school before they can get kicked out. The last thing a student needs is a suspension, so it is better to withdraw before the university can get you. But, that student won't have his name in the paper or lose her athletic scholarship.

C&F is still not as comfortable about the resolution of the Carl Johnson situation as AA appears to be, but in the absence of prosecution, Johnson is innocent.

Auburn out of the NCAAs? So says Seth Emerson, though he adds a this-is-pre-tournaments caveat. A few from his bubble team rankings:

9. South Carolina
10. Florida
13. San Diego State (last in)
18. Auburn

It's an interesting list from someone who has spent a lot of time watching the bubble for Gamecocks fans.

'I said busing tables.' Lane Kiffin denies slurring every South Carolina-bred Gamecock in program history.

"I never said that to Alshon, nor would I say anything like that," an obviously concerned Kiffin said during a meeting in his office. [EMPHASIS C&F's]

Boy Wonder, you've already said many, many things like that. So color C&F skeptical. (HT: Joe Person)

In the meantime, practice gets underway in Knoxville. No reported outrageous quotes from Boy Wonder. Yet.

Leavin'. Jon Richt is transferring out of Clemson, reportedly to go to a smaller program. Or to escape the sinking feeling that he's stuck in an episode of Green Acres. One of the two. (HT: The Mayor)

The last thing they needed. Arkansas, not expected to be long for the SEC tournament? They are down by one (G/F Jason Henry), by virtue of the dreaded "violation of team rules."

Billy Gillispie is not worried. Good for him. Kentucky fans are.

SEC Alumnus News. Former Vanderbilt QB Jay Cutler's relationship with the Broncos is dissolving, in a story not at all leaked by anyone in Culter's camp. I mean, there is absolutely nothing in the story that transparently reveals that Cutler's side is the one talking here.

SB Nation - Marcus Thornton

BtB 2009-10 Southeastern Conference Preview

Southeastern Conference Standings

West Division

East Division

Preseason All-SEC Team

Who is your pick to win the SEC this season?

Alabama

Arkansas

Auburn

Florida

Georgia

Kentucky

LSU

Ole Miss

Mississippi State

South Carolina

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Super Early 2010 Bracket

Who is your very early preseason #1?

Kansas

Michigan State

Texas

Villanova

Kentucky

Someone else (feel free to comment)

Knicks Acquiring 28th Pick?

With the 21st Pick...

The Candidates

2008 - Eric Maynor

2008 - Marcus Thornton

2008 - Sam Young

2008 - Austin Daye

2008 - Danny Green

2008 - Jeff Teague

2008 - Ty Lawson

Who Didn't Make This List?

So Who's the Pick?

Monday Morning Press (and Twitter) Clippings

Eight Minutes, Thirty Seconds

UNC 84, LSU 70

Kentucky 57, LSU 68: Postmortem

SEC Tournament: Kentucky Wildcats vs. LSU

Sprints // 03.11.09