SB Nation - Andre Walker

Postgame: Vanderbilt 84, Tennessee State 71

KingJamesIV — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 21:30:04 -0000

Always glad to get the win.

Festus Ezeli and Darshawn McClellan got the start over A.J. Ogilvy (missed practice time due to plantar fasciitis) and Andre Walker (missed practice time due to illness).

Earlier in the week, Stallings had mentioned that Festus often dominates in practice but had yet to bring that form to live competition. I'm not sure if this game really counts for Festus, considering he had about 8 inches over TSU's tallest player, but he played with fire (particularly in the opening minutes of each half, which in my eyes really set the tone for the team). He was the Commodore Radio Player of the Game, with 10 points, 5 rebounds and 1 block in 19 minutes. What doesn't show up on the stat sheet is that the early block he had in the first two minutes and a half minutes of the game was so intimidating that his presence inside really deterred the Tigers guards from taking the ball into the lane when they were able to break down their Commodore defender. Hopefully this is a sign that the light bulb is beginning to go off for Festus. There are few players in college who can match him physically.

Similarly, there are few players in college who can match Jeffery Taylor. Another solid game for him, with 20 points on 10 for 11 shooting to go along with 5 rebounds, 2 assists and a steal. 9 of Jeff's 10 made baskets were around the rim. He had a nice step-back 18 footer (such a smooth jumper). I hate to beat a dead horse, but Jeff's shooting percentage needs to drop quite a bit (due to taking more jump shots whenever the defense gives him a cushion). Once he realizes how great a shooter he truly is, he will be devastating and a lottery pick.

A.J. clearly had missed some practice time, but I thought he played well offensively early when the team was really looking for him. Lance Goulbourne played with great effort today and despite missing some practice time this week due to a slight concussion sustained against WKU his minutes remained above his season average of about 10mpg.

It was nice to see John Jenkins come out firing in the first half. His only missed three in the first half was in the closing seconds where he initially caught the ball with room to shoot but hesitated, pumped, then shot off-balance (fortunately A.J. was there to tip the ball in before the buzzer).

Jermaine Beal returned to form. He had 7 assists, 1 steal, 0 turnovers and despite not shooting that well today from outside, he wasn't forcing bad 3 pointers early in the shot clock. This is exactly what we need from Jermaine.

Brad Tinsley had a very up and down game today. He had 5 assists to go along with 6 turnovers. While Jeff had 5 turnovers as well, Jeff's don't stick with you quite as much as Brad's do. For some reason, he's making some risky decisions that haven't been paying off for the team. Brad is too good of a passer and too important a component for this team not to get this corrected soon.

Relevant Links: Game Page /// TSN Recap /// Box Score /// Official Vanderbilt Recap

During the postgame, Stallings spoke about how he was very happy with the way the team played in the first half. They hustled, played within themselves, and consequently built close to a 20 point lead heading into the half. They started the second half in the same way, but quickly devolved into the turnover machine offensively and the MataDores (pun) defensively that has cost them some winnable games. Stallings description of the second half? "Disgusting." I'd have to agree.

There's a short turnaround for the team, as they have today to prepare for the Mercer game tomorrow.

Plus/Minus

Plus/Minus Adjusted Per 40

Game Stories

Vanderbilt breezes by TSU, 84-71 | VandySports.com (Rivals - Premium)

Bobby's TSU Thoughts | Vanderbilt Sports Line

Recap: Vanderbilt Commodores 84, Tennessee State Tigers 71 | Dore Posts

Vanderbilt has shooter's touch against TSU | The Tennessean

Column: Vanderbilt needs floor leader | The Tennessean

David Climer: Vanderbilt has plenty of talent, but so far lacks someone to step up and take charge of the team.

Taylor's precision powers Vanderbilt past Tennessee State | Nashville City Paper

Commodores run past TSU, 84-71 | VANDERBILT OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE

I highly recommend listening to Joe Fisher's post game interview with Coach Stallings at the link above.

Don't forget, the Commodore Call-In Show with Coach Stallings begins tonight at 1830 CST. Join us in an open thread starting 15 minutes before the show starts.

Postgame: Illinois 79, #24 Vanderbilt 68

KingJamesIV — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 05:21:33 -0000

More photos » by Darrell Hoemann - AP

Browse more photos »

Firstly, I'd like to congratulate the Fighting Illini. They played hard and with passion. Must be nice.

Feeling a little shellshocked at the moment that Vandy would drop another egg like that after earning their way back into the rankings. It felt like everyone just decided they were going to take the night off tonight.

Steve Tchiengang had the lone block for the Dores. That's a pretty good example of the lack of defensive intensity from the team tonight. On the season, Vandy was averaging close to 6 per game.

Andre Walker was the glue guy again with 9 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 2 steals.

Illinois really shot the ball well. Of course, It sure is easy to do that when the defense is leaving you with a comfortable look at the basket. Even when Vandy would try to go on a run, there'd be a defensive breakdown which would lead to an open look from outside. Illinois had to make them, and they did, with relative ease.

As I said in the preview, Vandy just can't spot teams early points with turnovers and poor shot selection. It's a recipe for disaster, especially while we aren't shooting well from outside. When you couple that with poor defensive intensity, you lose ball games. It just doesn't seem like the team is focused on playing basketball at all.

What Vandy needs right now is a players-only meeting.

Relevant links:

Game Page /// TSN Recap /// Box Score /// Official Vanderbilt Recap

Stallings just now on the post game radio show: "We got less than we needed from Jeff on the road. We got less than we needed from John on the road. We got less than we needed from A.J. Ogilvy on the road. We got less than we needed from Jermaine Beal on the road. I don't think there was a player on our team who played better than just their average. You can't win on the road in a place like Illinois without people playing above themselves."

As I mentioned in the game thread, Jeffery Taylor apparently had been running a fever throughout the day. Also, John Jenkins may have a sprained MCL and was playing with a brace (that conveniently broke during a fast break).

Plus/Minus Updated Through the Illinois game:

Plus/Minus PER 40

In my preview I said that Vanderbilt is the better team statistically and that they should win. This is exactly why games are played. Tonight, Illinois deserved to win.

Postgame: Vanderbilt 67, DePaul 54

KingJamesIV — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 20:11:24 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

Browse more photos »

Ugly win. DePaul held Vandy to around 62 possessions, which is around 5 or so higher than was their season average entering the game. The 67 points allowed by DePaul was easily the most they've allowed in a non-overtime game this season.

What still remains so interesting about Vandy thus far is that despite the perception that the offense has not been clicking, the team is quite efficient. Points per possession have been above 1.00 in all games but St. Mary's and obviously Cincinnati. Anything above 1.00 is generally considered to be very good. Against DePaul, Vandy was 1.08. DePaul was 0.86.

And that's really what is so encouraging about the team. 3FG% was 23.1%. FT% was only 66.7%. ATO Ratio was 0.83. Vanderbilt teams in the past probably wouldn't have been able to overcome those numbers. This team has done so consistently so far, and they aren't close to clicking on all cylinders.

Elmer's Glue Guy Of The Game

Andre Walker (6 pts, 7 rebs, 1 asts, 2 stls, 0 tovs)

Relevant Links:

Game Page /// TSN Recap /// Box Score /// Official Vanderbilt Recap

Game Stories:

Vanderbilt's John Jenkins hurt in win over DePaul | The Tennessean

Said Coach Kevin Stallings: "I don’t think it’s very serious according to what our trainers said. His foot got stepped on. I think it kind of got twisted. I know he was in some pain, and that’s why they gave him some crutches. But after it happened, he went back into the game twice and played."

Ogilvy goes to the line to get Vanderbilt past DePaul | Nashville City Paper

The Commodores attempted to push the pace early but did not shoot the ball well enough, particularly 3-pointers (3-for-13) to maintain any real offensive momentum. Thus, the contest eventually settled into a half-court matchup of man-to-man defenses and one-on-one battles.

VUcommodores.com Blog: Post-DePaul news and notes

DePaul head coach Jerry Wainwright went out of the way to praise Vanderbilt forward Jeffery Taylor. Wainwright talked in length about how he enjoyed watching Taylor on film prior to the game, and thought the super sophomore was the difference in the game. "We haven’t really seen a forward like him," said Wainwright, whose team also faced Tennessee this year. "He’s really skilled and has great flow. Jeff has the kind of movement that he can guard Will Walker. So I thought he was really key."

Vanderbilt Commodores 67-Depaul Blue Demons 54 | Bleacher Report

Video Highlights

What was Impressive

A.J. Ogilvy's Free Throw Shooting - Through the first five games, AJ was making about 55% of his free throws. Stallings made a very minor adjustment to his shot process. Since then, AJ is 24-27 for 88.9%. What a luxury to have a center that draws fouls and makes them.
Jeffery Taylor - He makes it look so easy. What a smooth cat. Why doesn't he have a badass nickname yet? One-handed tomahawk? Yes, please.
Rebounding - Another solid positive rebounding margin. OffReb% was 40%, which is a good number.
Turnovers - Turnover Percentage was 19.3%, which was the second lowest of the season. Still too high for this team, but much better than the 29.4% versus Missouri.

Areas of Concern

Poor Shot Selection - Stallings mentioned in his postgame radio interview that he thought maybe a few guys were "looking to get theirs" in the first half. 3 for 13 from three is beneath the shooters on this team. Better shot selection will yield better 3FG%.
John Jenkins Injury - Nobody in the gym knew about it until after the game. Early in the second half John's foot was stepped on, bothering his knee and foot. Of course, he didn't let the coaches know about it until after he came out. He ended up playing through the pain, going back in the game twice. He left the game on crutches with ice on both his knee and his ankle. His condition is day to day at this point. Here's to hoping nothing is serious and that he will be close to 100% when the Dores take on Illinois at Assembly Hall.

Plus/Minus Through the DePaul Game:

Plus/Minus PER 40

Post your thoughts below.

Postgame: Vanderbilt 89, Missouri 83

KingJamesIV — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 19:03:29 -0000

More photos » by Mark Humphrey - AP

Browse more photos »

I must say that despite how uncomfortable Missouri made the final five minutes of this game for the Commodores, I never truly felt that Vandy was going to let them steal this one. Give Missouri and Coach Anderson credit. Despite being in a hostile atmosphere down 14 points with 5:29 left to play, they never stopped giving their full effort or believing in themselves and nearly came away with a hard-fought road victory as a result.

Elmer's Glue Guy Of The Game

Andre Walker (6 pts, 12 rebs, 4 asts, 3 blks, 2 stls)

Relevant Links:

Game Page /// TSN Recap /// Box Score /// Official Vanderbilt Recap

Game Stories:

Commodores shake off road woes, fend off Missouri rally | Nashville City Paper

Missouri managed just three offensive rebounds in the first half and one in the first 14-plus minutes of the second. The one-and-done approach had a lot to do with the fact that Vanderbilt stretched a six-point halftime lead to 78-64 after an Ogilvy put-back.

Vanderbilt manages to beat Missouri | tennessean.com | The Tennessean

"I didn't think if we turned the ball over 24 times against them we would win," Vanderbilt Coach Kevin Stallings said. "We didn't play great, but that's because of them. They force you to play in a way that you're not accustomed to playing."

What was Impressive

Vanderbilt Free Throw Shooting - Prior to last night's game, Vanderbilt's FT% was 65.3% on the season. That is uncharacteristic for a Vanderbilt team and certainly not representative of the capabilities of the players. Against Missouri, Vandy FT% was 83.9%, and their FTRate was 53.4% (they converted 53.4% of their field goal attempts into free throw opportunities). John Jenkins was clutch down the stretch, nailing perhaps the biggest free throws of his basketball career.
Jeffery Taylor - His plus/minus below says it all. He is emerging as our best player. He really minimized one of his weaknesses thus far, turnovers, by having only 1 against one of the best teams in the nation at forcing them. His defense is outstanding. So long as he steps on the court in a Vanderbilt uniform, he will almost always be the most athletic player on the court. As soon as he realizes that, and begins to trust in his silky-smooth jumpshot, he will be impossible to defend. Trust in yourself, Jeff! Just watch the dunk in the highlights. Trust me.
Rebounding - Considering Vandy had been out-rebounded by 4.8 rebounds per game over the first five games, it was nice to see a +21 rebounding margin. Vandy even had 15 offensive rebounds to Missouri's 17 defensive rebounds! Quite the improvement. As Andre Walker said after the game, "I think as long as you make a conscientious effort all the time to hit somebody, you can get rebounds."
Mike Anderson - This was my first occasion to observe Missouri's head coach from the stands. I must say that I came away quite impressed with him. Missouri made an outstanding hire and I hope they do everything they can to hang on to him. Coach Anderson never seemed anything but confident and cool. Clearly this filters down to his players. I was very impressed.

Areas of Concern

Turnovers - 24 of them to be precise. The season average was 15.6 (still too high). Jermaine Beal had 4 and Brad Tinsley had 6. Not good. Sure, Missouri forces more turnovers per game than most teams, but the players can't exactly say the coaches didn't address this leading up to the game.
Half-Court Offense - The team really appears to be stagnant when forced to run their half-court offense. There doesn't seem to be very much movement away from the ball. I would very much like to see this improve over the next few games. I've got a feeling some half-court flow would do wonders for our current 3-point FG%, as the players individually are much better outside shooters than 34%.

Plus/Minus through the Missouri game:

Post your game reaction below.

Know Your (Temporary) Rival: Vanderbilt Commodores

Bill C. — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:00:15 -0000

By most accounts, Vanderbilt is probably a better overall team than anybody Mizzou has faced this season, including Richmond. Does that mean a loss is in store for the Tigers, or do they match up pretty well with the Commodores? Let's find out.

Vanderbilt: 4-1

	VU	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.89	1.62
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.06	0.91
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.30	1.03
2-PT FG%	51.8%	39.8%
3-PT FG%	34.8%	33.7%
FT%	65.3%	61.6%
True Shooting %	55.3%	45.8%

	VU	Opp
Assists/Gm	11.2	11.0
Steals/Gm	7.4	6.6
Turnovers/Gm	15.6	16.8
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.19	1.05

	VU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	62	75
Offensive Rebounds	58	86
Difference	-4	+1

VU's season thus far:

@Vandy 95, Lipscomb 73
Vandy 72, @St. Mary's 70
Cincinnati 67, Vandy 58 (in Maui)
Vandy 68, Chaminade 41 (in Maui)
Vandy 84, Arizona 72 (in Maui)

Where the Commodores are solid

They are efficient shooters--none of their overall percentages are that great, but anything at 1.30 points per shot or better is solid, and that probably means they get to the line quite a bit. Playing on the road, against a team good at drawing fouls (even if they're not great FT shooters), usually isn't a good combination for Mizzou.

They also play good defense, especially around the basket. Holding opponents to under 40% on 2-point shots is a difficult accomplishment, but the 'Dores have pulled it off so far this season (I'm sure the game against Chaminade didn't hurt their percentages, but still). That also doesn't bode well for Mizzou, considering how poorly they shot 2-pointers (and 3-pointers) in South Padre.

Where the Commodores are less than solid

Vandy plays at a faster-than-average pace, which gives them a few more opportunities for turnovers, but 15.6 is still too many. Mizzou thrives on the BCI concept, and Vandy is only average at best at that game. Since the Commodores are prone to moving relatively quickly, Mizzou might have a shot in this game by speeding them up faster than they're comfortable going, forcing turnovers, and creating easy scoring opportunities. This probably isn't a game Mizzou can win in the halfcourt.

For a team with decent size (they have seven guys of 6'7 or taller in the rotation), they sure don't rebound very well. It's not a huge weakness, but they are basically -1.0 rebound per game in terms of expected rebounds. Mizzou has held its own on the boards so far, and putbacks (hello, Laurence Bowers) could be another opportunity for easy points.

In the end, this game presents some very interesting matchups -- it appears both that Vandy is capable of taking advantage of Mizzou's weaknesses, and Mizzou is capable of taking advantage of Vandy's.

Player Stats

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	*AdjGS/Gm**	GmSc/Min	Line
Jermaine Beal (6'3, 205, Sr.)	17.2	0.54	31.8 MPG, 15.4 PPG, 2.8 APG, 1.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG
Jeffery Taylor (6'7, 210, So.)	15.9	0.58	27.2 MPG, 14.4 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG, 1.2 APG, 3.0 TOPG
A.J. Ogilvy (6'11, 250, Jr.)	12.2	0.53	22.8 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 1.8 TOPG
Andre Walker (6'7, 220, So.)	9.0	0.38	24.0 MPG, 7.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.8 TOPG
John Jenkins (6'4, 215, Fr.)	7.3	0.36	20.4 MPG, 9.2 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Brad Tinsley (6'3, 210, So.)	3.8	0.15	25.6 MPG, 5.4 PPG, 3.4 APG, 1.4 RPG, 2.8 TOPG
Lance Goulbourne (6'8, 225, So.)	3.3	0.33	10.0 MPG, 3.6 PPG, 1.4 RPG
Darshawn McClellan (6'7, 240, Jr.)	2.5	0.20	12.4 MPG, 3.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG
Steve Tchiengang (6'9, 240, So.)	1.5	0.18	8.4 MPG, 3.0 PPG, 2.2 RPG
Festus Ezeli (6'11, 255, So.)	1.3	0.12	11.2 MPG, 2.4 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 1.6 BPG
Jordan Smart (6'6, 180, Fr.)	0.9	0.45	2.0 MPG
Chris Meriwether (6'0, 180, Sr.)	0.0	0.00	2.0 MPG
Aaron Noll (6'7, 220, So.)	-0.1	-0.03	2.0 MPG
Charles Hinkle (6'6, 195, So.)	-0.5	-0.13	3.8 MPG, 0.8 PPG
Joe Duffy (6'8, 225, Jr.)	-0.5	-0.24	2.0 MPG

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Vandy's top five players are from Texas, Sweden, Australia, Illinois and Tennessee. Throw in a Nigerian (Ezeli), a Kentuckian (Noll), a Brooklynite (Goulbourne), a couple of Californians (McClellan and Hinkle), and a Cameroon...ian (Tchiengang), and you wonder what they must talk about during downtime. (Then again, this is Vandy, so they're probably talking about how hard their classes are, huh?)
For the most part, this team is based around three rock solid players -- Beal, Taylor, Ogilvy -- and a deep cast of role players. They've got a couple of shot blockers (Ogilvy, Ezeli), a couple of fearless long-distance shooters (Beal, Jenkins...notice I didn't necessarily say "great" long-distance shooters), a couple of well-rounded scorers (Beal, Taylor), a good passer (Tinsley), and in the end, everything you need to have to be successful.
Ogilvy in particular presents Mizzou with another interesting test. Thus far, they have fared pretty well against bigger players, but Ogilvy is a particularly rugged player who puts numbers in the box score despite the lack of what you would consider a true big man's numbers (he shoots under 50% from the field, grabs an only decent 0.25 rebounds per minute, has only five offensive rebounds in five games, etc.). Taylor is the more active (and better) big man, and he is more to the size of Keith Ramsey, Bowers, etc., but Ogilvy is a unique matchup.

Keys to the Game

Fouls. As is often the case when Mizzou is playing on the road, how the game is called will go a long way in determining how good a chance Mizzou has. They probably can't beat Vandy playing a halfcourt game right now, so they'll need easy buckets ... which means they need to trap and bump and get in the passing lanes, and if the refs allow for physical play, they'll have a very good shot to win. If they're calling ticky-tack fouls, Mizzou will lose by 15-20 (with Vandy probably pulling away late with free throws).
Pace. Unlike Richmond or Old Dominion, the Commodores probably will not try to take the air out of the ball, take 9.5 seconds to get across halfcourt every trip, etc. They are content to play relatively fast, and that could be a good thing for Mizzou. If they are not consciously trying to slow things down, Mizzou might be able to bait them into picking up the pace faster and faster. If this game is 70 possessions or lower, Vandy probably wins; but if Mizzou can up that to the 73-80 range, they will have a very good chance of escaping Nashville at 5-1.
Rebounds. For their size, Vandy is not a great rebounding team; if Mizzou wins the battle of the boards and gets more second chances than the Commodores, they will give themselves a much better shot at the upset, especially considering how poorly they shot first-chance shots last week.

Prediction

There is a clear path to victory for Mizzou here, and it rests on their ability to push the tempo, avoid fouls and grab rebounds. Still, it wouldn't be tremendously smart to put a lot of money on Mizzou right now. Even though I'm not too worried about this team long-term (yet), this isn't a game Mizzou should be expected to win. Vanderbilt 71, Missouri 66.

BtB 2009-10 Southeastern Conference Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 21:27:31 -0000

During the two weeks before Selection Sunday last March, I frequently heard these words (or something close) in conversation, "The SEC is going to get more than two or three bids to the Tourney. How can we not? We're the SEC." Of course, it took another surprising run through the SEC Tournament by a team nicknamed the Bulldogs to keep the Southeastern Conference from becoming (gasp) a two bid league. But Mississippi State became the league's second straight surprise auto bid winner. However, just like Georgia in 2008, the boys from Starkville also lost in the first round after getting a low seed.

But it's not like the two SEC teams who earned at-large bids did much better. Ninth seeded Tennessee fell to Oklahoma State in a tight first round contest, while eighth seeded LSU reached round two, where they were outclassed by North Carolina. Kentucky, Florida, Auburn, and South Carolina all ended up in the NIT, where none of the four managed to make it to New York. Vanderbilt won 19 games and didn't even get a postseason bid. All in all, it was a disappointing 2008-09 for a conference used to postseason success.

The good news for the SEC is that the league should be far better this year, thanks to a couple of major coaching hires (as explained in my Coaching Carousel column) and an infusion of new talent (some of whom are listed in my All-Transfer and All-Freshman team columns). But there's a lot more going on in the league than what happened in Lexington and Tuscaloosa this offseason, which I'll explain after the jump.

Let's first take a look at last season's SEC standings.

Southeastern Conference Standings

(updated 3.25.2009 at 10:42 PM EDT)

East	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
South Carolina Gamecocks	10	6	21	10
Tennessee Volunteers	10	6	21	13
Florida Gators	9	7	25	11
Kentucky Wildcats	8	8	22	14
Vanderbilt Commodores	8	8	19	12
Georgia Bulldogs	3	13	12	20

West	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
LSU Tigers	13	3	27	8
Auburn Tigers	10	6	24	12
Mississippi St. Bulldogs	9	7	23	13
Alabama Crimson Tide	7	9	18	14
Mississippi Rebels	7	9	16	15
Arkansas Razorbacks	2	14	14	16

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a school's name appears in red, that's a link to its SBNation site. You can go there for more detailed analysis throughout the season.

West Division

Auburn (last NCAA: 2003) The Tigers fell to Baylor in the NIT quarterfinals last season, a disappointing end to a good season that could've ended in the NCAA Tournament with a marquee win or two. It's going to take a lot for Jeff Lebo's team to reach that level of success this season. Even with the graduation of Rasheem Barrett (9.9 ppg) and Quantez Robertson (6.0 ppg, 3.2 apg), DeWayne Reed (13.2 ppg, 3.7 apg) and Tay Waller (12.1 ppg) anchor a solid backcourt that will give the opposition fits. However, Korvotney Barber and his contributions of nearly 13 points and 10 rebounds a game will be severely missed in the frontcourt, even in Lebo's guard-oriented system. Seniors Brendan Knox and Johnnie Lett will have to step up to fill the void left by Barber's departure, and freshmen Rob Chubb and Ty Armstrong can expect to see playing time as well. Junior college transfer Kenny Gabriel should also see significant time, as he can be a true inside/outside threat for Auburn.

LSU (last NCAA: 2009) Expect the Tigers, last year's SEC regular season champs, to take a step back after the loss of three key starters. F Marcus Thornton and his 21 points per game are gone, so is C Chris Johnson, and the team's heart and soul, PG Garrett Temple. However, LSU still has Tasmin Mitchell, who averaged 16.3 points and 7.2 rebounds last season, while spending time at both small forward and power forward. Guard Bo Spencer is the other returning starter. He's a good shooter (averaging 11.4 ppg while shooting 40% from beyond the arc), but is coming off wrist surgery. Beyond those two, head coach Trent Johnson has his work cut out for him, as none of the other returnees averaged more than 2 points per contest. Expect the newcomers, like G Aaron Dotson (coming off a patellar tendon injury) and Fs Eddie Ludwig and Garrett Green (a medical redshirt last year), to see significant time during the rebuilding process.

Arkansas (last NCAA: 2008) It hasn't been the greatest of offseasons in Fayetteville, where head coach John Pelphrey will suspend at least one player after an offseason rape investigation that resulted in no charges. The possibility of suspensions will make the Razorbacks task of recovering from last season a bit more difficult. The Hogs were in full rebuilding mode last year, but managed to get off to a 12-1 start, featuring wins over regional rivals Oklahoma and Texas. It didn't last, and Arkansas finished bottom of the SEC West with a ghastly 2-14 record. This season, the Razorbacks will again roll out a three-guard lineup in their search for more consistency. That quest starts at point guard, where sophomore Courtney Fortson did a great job of distributing the ball (nearly 6 assists per game), while turning it over far too often (4.4 per game). Rotnei Clark led the nation's freshmen in three point shooting (39.3%), and Stefan Welsh contributed 11.5 oints per game. PF Michael Washington decided to stay in school, which means the Hogs keep their leading scorer (15.5) and conference-leading rebounder (9.8). The biggest reason Arkansas is this low is depth, with only six returning players from last season, Pelphrey will need a lot out of his newcomers to move up the SEC ladder.

Alabama (last NCAA: 2006) Bama alum Mark Gottfried resigned as head coach last January, when it was clear that the Tide would spend a third straight year outside of the NCAAs. Anthony Grant left a good gig at VCU to take the head job, and he's going to try to implement a more up-tempo style in Tuscaloosa. Alabama's biggest issue over the past few seasons has been inconsistent point guard play, especially with Ronald Steele's injuries and eventual departure from the program. Senior Mikhail Torrance (10 ppg, 2.3 apg) moved to the 1 slot after Steele left the program and performed well, though he's more of a natural shooting guard. As Grant implements his offense, watch for 5-9 Anthony Brock and Andrew Steele, Ronald's brother, to get time at the point, so Torrance can move over to his natural position. In the frontcourt, Grant has two 6-9 guys who will need to step it up. JaMychal Green had a decent freshman season, but will need to better his averages of 10.6 ppg and 7.6 rpg. Justin Knox, who averaged 5.7 ppg and 5.1 rpg, should be able to increase both those numbers with more time on the court.

Mississippi (last NCAA: 2002) Ole Miss head coach Andy Kennedy made headlines for all the wrong reasons last season, when he was arrested for allegedly assaulting a cab driver the night before the Rebels faced his former employer, Cincinnati, in the SEC/Big East Invitational. Things only got worse from there, as Miss lost All-SEC guard Chris Warren to a knee injury during that outing. Add in the fact that the Rebels had already lost Eniel Polynice and Trevor Gaskins to injuries, and it's amazing that they managed 16 wins last year. This season, all three guards are back, making the loss of Florida transfer David Huertas almost inconsequential. Zach Graham, the team's best three point shooter, is also back, giving the Rebels perhaps the best backcourt in the league. Kennedy's frontcourt isn't quite as strong. Sophomore Murphy Holloway will have to improve on his 8.4 points and 6.6 boards per game, while 6-8 freshman Reginald Bucker and 6-9 JC transfer DeAngelo Riley will have to contribute immediately. The fact the Rebels don't quite have the inside force to match Miss State's Varnado means they should finish behind their in-state rivals in the standings.

Mississippi State (last NCAA: 2009) Rick Stansbury recruited Renardo Sidney to provide some support for C Jarvis Varnado inside. However, it doesn't look like the NCAA is going to rule Sidney eligible. Stansbury also got a commitment from 7-2 Sudanese C John Riek, who was finally ruled eligible, but will have to sit out the first 9 games of the season. That means Varnado, who fell ill at one point this summer, will likely see some time as the lone big man on the court if Stansbury runs out a four-guard offense, as he did frequently last season. When you have guards like Dee Bost, Ravern Johnson, Barry Stewart, and Phil Turner who can shoot the three well, that offensive strategy isn't a bad idea. However, with the development of 6-8 Fs Kodi Augustus and Romero Osby (and Riek's eventual eligibility), you can expect to see Varnado get far more frontcourt help. Additionally, Varnado only needs 19 blocks to pass Shaquille O'Neal as the SEC's all-time leader in that category (though Shaq did it in fewer games).

East Division

Georgia (last NCAA: 2008) For some reason, Mark Fox decided to leave a Nevada program he (along with LSU head man Trent Johnson) made into a national name. Fox now replaces Dennis Felton at the helm of a Georgia program that has never fully recovered from the Jim Harrick era, which is now six years in the past. After the graduation of G/F Terrance Woodbury (14.0 ppg), Fox is left with only one double-digit scorer from last season. However, 6-9 F Howard Thompkins is a pretty good player to have on your roster. Thompkins averaged 12.6 points and 7.4 boards per game, and should be even better after an offseason spent on the USA's Under-19 World Championship-winning team. In the backcourt, Dustin Ware should start at point guard, as he averaged 7.2 points and 3.4 dimes per game in 2008-09. After that, Fox has a lot of decisions to make, and that means the Bulldogs will probably be rooted to the bottom of the SEC standings yet again.

South Carolina (last NCAA: 2004) In Darrin Horn's first year at the helm, the Gamecocks managed to tie Tennessee atop the SEC East. Even though they only lost guard Zam Fredrick and his 15.5 points per game, Carolina probably won't reach such heights this season. That's not to say that the Gamecocks won't manage to get back to the NCAAs, something they failed to do last year. Thanks to the return of G Devan Downey (19.8 ppg, 4.5 apg, SEC leading 89 steals) and F Dominique Archie (10.9 ppg, 6.4 rpg), the Gamecocks still have some real star power in the lineup. Returning starters Mike Holmes (10.8 ppg, 7.7 rpg) and Sam Muldrow (5.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg) should provide even more help to Archie in the frontcourt this season, while JC transfer Johndre Jefferson will be expected to spend time at both small and power forward. In the backcourt, Evaldas Baniulis, after averaging a bit more than 6 points a game while shooting 48 percent from behind the arc, is expected to take a more active role in the offense with the graduation of Fredrick, as is 6-5 swingman Lakeem Jackson, a heralded recruit from Charlotte.

Florida (last NCAA: 2007) Has it really been over two years since the Gators last featured in an NCAA Tournament game? While the days of back-to-back championships may be in the rear-view mirror, Billy Donovan's latest group has the chance to finally get off the bubble. Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin will be eligible this season, and he'll slide into the center position. That will allow Alex Tyus to move back to his natural position, power forward, which will allow Dan Werner to move to small forward. Kenny Kadji should be better in his sophomore year as well, giving the Gators more of a presence inside. More consistency is expected out of swingman Chandler Parsons, whose performances alternate between brilliant and frustrating. In the backcourt, Erving Walker (10.1 ppg, 2.4 apg) will lead the offense after Nick Calathes' departure for Greece. Israeli newcomer Nimrod Tishman could also see time at the point if the NCAA rules him eligible. Impact freshman Kenny Boynton will start at shooting guard. He's expected to be the Gators new three-point threat, though he can also really drive to the hoop.

Vanderbilt (last NCAA: 2008) The Commodores sat at home last postseason, despite finishing the regular season with 7 wins in their last 10. Vandy shouldn't be so unlucky this season. Chemistry should be good, as head coach Kevin Stallings gave up a $100,000 raise so the team could take a scheduled trip to Australia, home country of star C A.J. Ogilvy. Ogilvy averaged 15.4 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, and those numbers should improve if he stays healthier this season. The 'Dores frontcourt boasts an international flavor beyond their Aussie star with Swede Jeffery Taylor (12.2 ppg. 6.2 rpg) a fixture at small forward, 6-9 Cameroonian PF Steve Tchiengang (3.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg) expected to spend more time in the 4 spot, and 6-11 Nigerian C Festus Ezeli (3.8 ppg. 2.6 rpg) expected to both backup and spend time on the floor with Ogilvy. 6-7 Andre Walker may also return to the starting lineup, after suffering an ACL tear early last season. The backcourt may be more US-centric, but it's still talented. Jermaine Beal (12.5 ppg, 3.2 apg) amd Brad Tinsley (11.0 ppg, 2.8 apg) will take turns running the offense, but 6-4 John Jenkins, the USA's highest scoring high school player last season, will get plenty of opportunities to showcase his inside/outside game. Even if he only manages 25 percent of his senior year average, Jenkins should provide plenty of scoring punch for the Commodores.

Tennessee (last NCAA: 2009) The Volunteers return all five starters in their quest to improve on last year's NCAA first round exit. The best news for the Vols this offseason was Tyler Smith's decision to skip the NBA Draft and return for his senior season. Bruce Pearl is glad he doesn't have to replace Smith's 17.4 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Wayne Chism (13.7 ppg, 8 rpg) will continue to be a force inside, while 6-10 C Brian Williams will need to improve his scoring (5 ppg) to match his rebounding (5.6 rpg). Bobby Maze (8.2 ppg, 3.2 apg) will run the offense, while J.P. Prince and Scotty Hopson, who were forces at both ends of the floor last year, are expected to continue their strong two-way play. Cameron Tatum (7.6 ppg) and Renaldo Woolridge, son of former NBA star Orlando, are going to be Bruce Pearl's key swingmen this season.. Woolridge, who only managed 2.6 points in a little more than 8 minutes a contest, should be improved in his sophomore season. The Vols only personnel loss is a sad story, as Nigerian F Emmanuel Negedu, as he suffered a sudden cardiac arrest last month.

Kentucky (last NCAA: 2008) During my Season Preview series, I've written a fair amount about John Calipari's arrival in Lexington and his stellar recruiting class. Patrick Patterson (17.9 ppg, 9.3 rpg) will lead a strong frontcourt that already features senior Perry Stevenson (7.8 ppg, 5.9 rpg), and will be bolstered by the arrival of the 6-11 DeMarcus Cousins and 6-10 Daniel Orton, two highly coveted recruits. And the backcourt will feature the most highly coveted recruit for this season, 6-4 point guard John Wall, who will be responsible for running Calipari's dribble drive offense. If the chemistry works, the Wildcats will quickly be on their way, and the blue half of the Commonwealth will quickly forget about the Gillispie period.

I'm picking Kentucky to win the overall SEC title, so they'll take the league's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-SEC team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-SEC Team

Player of the Year: Tyler Smith, 6-7 F, Sr. (Tennessee)

Remainder of the Team
Devan Downey, 5-9 G, Sr. (South Carolina)
Tasmin Mitchell, 6-7 F, Sr. (LSU)
Patrick Patterson, 6-9 F, Jr. (Kentucky)
Jarvis Varnado, 6-9 F/C, Sr. (Mississippi State)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the SEC this season?

Alabama

9 votes

Arkansas

9 votes

Auburn

3 votes

Florida

14 votes

Georgia

2 votes

Kentucky

213 votes

LSU

3 votes

Ole Miss

7 votes

Mississippi State

57 votes

South Carolina

5 votes

Tennessee

68 votes

Vanderbilt

17 votes

407 votes | Poll has closed

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Game Analysis

Truzenzuzex — Sat, 10 Jan 2009 16:04:32 -0000

At last we reach the first game of our conference schedule. In recent years, our games with Vanderbilt have been highly indicative of how our season was likely to turn out. Beat them in Rupp Arena, and all is well. Lose to them, and things tend to go downhill a bit.

Last year we pulled off a big upset in Rupp, and this year we are looking to bounce back from the loss at Louisville. That tends to magnify this game somewhat, and makes it a very important beginning to the SEC conference schedule. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is on a six-game winning streak, their latest being a 30-point victimization of UMass.

Player Statistics (Courtesy of BBState)

Kentucky
#	Player	Pos	Yr	Ht	Wt	G	MPG	FG%	FT%	3PT%	True%	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	A/TO	Pts40	Eff	PPG
23	Meeks,Jodie	G	Jr.	6'4”	208	15	32.8	47.1	89.4	42.5	64.6	3.1	1.7	1.6	0.1	0.6	29.8	18.1	24.4
54	Patterson,Patrick	F	So.	6'9”	235	15	32.1	71.3	79.5	0	74.4	9.8	2.7	0.7	2	1.6	24.3	26.5	19.5
21	Stevenson,Perry	F	Jr.	6'9”	207	15	25.3	55.1	78.1	40	62	6.2	1.6	0.7	2.4	0.8	10.8	11.5	6.9
34	Liggins,DeAndre	F	Fr.	6'6”	202	15	19.8	47.2	70.6	18.5	55.8	2.8	3.7	0.9	0.5	1.1	13.1	7.3	6.5
22	Harris,Ramon	F	Jr.	6'7”	218	10	21.2	58.5	59.3	11.1	61.5	2.6	1.2	0.8	0.3	0.6	12.3	6	6.5
55	Harrellson,Josh	C	So.	6'10”	265	15	12.9	49.3	73.9	37.5	55.6	3.8	0.5	0.3	0.7	0.5	18.2	6.9	5.9
1	Miller,Darius	F	Fr.	6'7”	223	15	19.6	33.3	75	20	43.3	2.9	2.1	0.5	0.5	1.3	7.8	5.3	3.8
13	Porter,Michael	G	Jr.	6'3”	198	15	22.1	32.7	80	27.8	46.1	2.1	2.9	0.8	0.1	1.3	6.3	4.7	3.5
15	Stewart,AJ	F	Sr.	6'8”	207	12	6.9	50	90	0	57.6	1.5	0.3	0.4	0.8	0.3	16.9	3.7	2.9
10	Slone,Landon	G	Fr.	6'3”	189	9	9.2	31.6	100	30.8	48.2	1.3	1	0.3	0	4.5	9.6	3.3	2.2
3	Galloway,Kevin	F	Jr.	6'7”	215	12	7.3	46.2	50	0	48.4	1.3	1.4	0.3	0.2	1.5	7.3	2.7	1.3
Vanderbilt
#	Player	Pos	Yr	Ht	Wt	G	MPG	FG%	FT%	3PT%	True%	RPG	APG	SPG	BPG	A/TO	Pts40	Eff	PPG
4	Ogilvy,Andrew	C	Sr.	6'10”	250	13	26.8	53.9	76	27.3	62.9	7.2	0.9	0.7	1.5	0.3	24.5	15.8	16.5
44	Taylor,Jeffery	F	Fr.	6'7”	210	14	25.2	50.4	67.2	15.4	56.1	6.1	1.6	1.1	0.5	0.9	19.8	12.9	12.5
0	Beal,Jermaine	G	Jr.	6'3”	205	14	31	46.2	86.5	47.1	65	4.2	3.4	1.6	0.2	2.3	15.2	14.4	11.8
1	Tinsley,Brad	G	Fr.	6'3”	210	14	29.9	42.2	78.6	42.7	60.2	2.4	2.8	0.6	0.1	1.6	14	9.1	10.4
5	Goulbourne,Lance	G	Fr.	6'8”	225	6	14.8	53.8	84.6	42.9	66.2	5.3	0	0.7	0.7	0	18.9	9	7
24	Walker,Andre	F	So.	6'7”	220	3	23.7	62.5	80	0	68.6	4.7	1.3	0.7	1.3	0.7	7.9	8.3	4.7
34	Drake,George	G	Jr.	6'4”	215	14	17.7	34.8	66.7	22.6	44	2.5	1.9	0.6	0.3	1.4	10.5	4.7	4.6
3	Ezeli,Festus	C	Fr.	6'11”	255	12	12.8	52.6	58.3	0	55.6	2.8	0.1	0.1	1.2	0	14	4.1	4.5
33	Tchiengang,Steve	F	Fr.	6'9”	240	8	17.6	29.6	55.6	25	38.8	3.4	0.6	0.3	0.4	0.5	6.8	3.1	3
21	McClellan,Darshawn	F	So.	6'7”	240	14	18.7	37.8	60	55.6	48.2	2.4	1.6	0.4	0.4	1.3	6.4	4.2	3
2	Hinkle,Charles	F	Fr.	6'6”	195	12	12.1	25.8	90.9	20.8	43.2	1.3	0.5	0.4	0.1	1	8.6	2.4	2.6
50	Duffy,Joe	F	So.	6'8”	225	12	9	41.2	75	0	45.3	1.6	0.5	0.1	0	0.9	6.3	2.2	1.4

Team Statistics (Courtesy of Kenpom.com)

Stat	Vanderbilt				Kentucky				Advantage
Stat	Offense	Rnk	Defense	Rnk	Offense	Rnk	Defense	Rnk	Offense	Defense
Adjusted efficiency	104.2	105	90.6	33	110	48	88.6	22	UK	UK
Effective FG%	51.4	87	51.2	5	56.1	12	42.8	19	UK Big	UK
Turnover %	21.9	229	18.6	287	24.7	317	20.8	177	Vandy Big	UK Big
Offensive rebound %	33.6	163	29.9	73	35.2	112	29.1	42	UK	UK
Free throw rate	34.5	9	29.4	54	32.2	23	34.2	141	Vandy	Vandy Big
3-point FG%	34.8	143	34.4	191	33.9	178	34.1	184	Vandy	UK
2-point FG%	51	65	36.2	1	58.4	4	38.8	5	UK	Vandy Small
Free throw %	73.7	37	66.5	94	78.4	7	70.2	229	UK	Vandy Big
Block %	9.2	192	12.5	42	6.9	64	18.8	5	UK Big	UK
Steal %	11	248	9.2	221	11.1	250	9.5	203	Vandy Small	UK
3PA/FGA	34.1	139	32.3	146	30.4	232	32.5	151	N/A	N/A
A/FGM	58.2	94	55.2	186	64.3	20	45.2	10	N/A	N/A

Analysis

Front Court

Vanderbilt has a very young but talented front court. Andrew Ogilvy is tenth in the SEC in scoring and eighth in rebounding. He is one of the best low-post players in the SEC and will provide a serious challenge for the Kentucky front-court duo of Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson. Freshman Jeffrey Taylor was a Rivals top 100 player (52) and has already claimed SEC Freshman of the Week honors once this year. Andre Walker is a sophomore who plays mostly an inside game.

Patrick Patterson currently ranks 5th and 3rd in the SEC in scoring and rebounding respectively, and as good as Ogilvy has been, Patterson as been significantly better. Perry Stevenson and Jeffrey Talor are very similar players both in build and game, except that Taylor is a better scorer and Stevenson is a better defensive player. Both Patterson and Stevenson are in the top 15 in the SEC in field goal percentage, and neither of the two Commodores are so high. I have no idea who will start at the 3 for Kentucky, but it will probably be Ramon Harris.

Overall, I give Kentucky an edge in the front court. Patterson is a better offensive and devensive player than Ogilvy, and is much more athletic. Stevenson and Harris are both far more eperienced than their counterparts, and just as talented.

Back Court

Vanderbilt has two deadly 3-point shooters in the back court, point guard Jermaine Beal and freshman (and former UK recruit) Brad Tinsley. Both are shooting over 40% from outside the arc, and Beal is a junior with outstanding ball skills.

Jodie Meeks currently leads the SEC in scoring and is fourth in the nation. He is second in the league in minutes and sixth in true shooting percentage. He will likely be joined by Michael Porter, who played a good game against Louisville and has matured quite a bit in the last several games.

Vanderbilt has a slight advantage in the back court. They have better depth and a more stable point guard situation. They also have excellent shooting in the back court.

Conclusion

Overall, Kentucky is statistically a somewhat better team than Vanderbilt, although Vandy continues to field solid, high quality talent. Vanderbilt's biggest problem in this game will be containing the Patterson/Meeks duo. Unfortunately for Vanderbilt, they don't have anyone with the combination of size and athleticism to handle Patterson. Meeks' athleticism is trouble for everyone, but if his shot happens to be off this game, UK will need someone else to step up and produce.

Both teams get to the line a lot and shoot a high percentage. Neither team gets a lot of steals, and of course, there is that whole turnover thing with Kentucky, which has been a serious bugaboo for the 'Cats all year. Kentucky plays somewhat better defense and somewhat better offense than the Commodores, and if that holds to form, the 'Cats should be in the driver's seat.

One big concern for both teams is fouls. If either team's big man gets into foul trouble, that could be a very big problem. Kentucky has struggled this year with 3-point defense, and that could be deadly against Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt has three very capable three-point shooters, and Kentucky really only has one -- Michael Porter has shown some competence, but he is a reluctant shooter.

In the final analysis, these are two very similar teams, statistically, and this matchup should be a good one. Kentucky is more efficient on both offense and defense, and although Vanderbilt has better three point shooting, Kentucky has an advantage both athletically and size wise in the back court that should neutralize that to some degree. Rupp Arena will also provide an advantage that was strong during SEC play last year, and I don't expect that to change this year.