SB Nation - Toney Douglas

Headlines: Men's Basketball Picked Ninth in ACC Preseason Poll

Brian @ BCI — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 19:00:46 -0000

Brian: So much for any media optimism surrounding the 2009-2010 Eagles men’s basketball program. The men’s team was selected ninth by the media members at the ACC’s Operation Basketball event this weekend. The Eagles were ranked ahead of only Miami, Virginia and NC State.

Here is the predicted order of finish with first-place votes in parenthesis:

1. Duke (25), 545
1. UNC (20), 545
3. Clemson, 409
4. Georgia Tech (2), 387
5. Maryland, 378
6. Wake Forest (1), 315
7. Florida State, 314
8. Virginia Tech, 273
9. Boston College, 251
10. Miami, 135
11. Virginia, 116
12. N.C. State, 76

Jeff, your thoughts?

Jeff: Wow. I'm pretty surprised here, but welcome to the ACC. In football, if you have a top 25 team you expect to compete for the conference title. But in basketball, it takes a top 10 team to have high hopes to win the conference. The ACC could get 9 teams into the dance any given year so being picked to or actually finishing 9th is not necessarily a season failure. As I look at the teams ranked above us, I would've had Boston College higher than all except Duke, North Carolina and Clemson. But, can I really say the media is completely wrong about any of the other five teams above us? No. The first team I would move down is Maryland but they do have a lot more history than BC and finished the year strong last season.

As you can see from the votes, the league has three tiers:

North Carolina and Duke
Clemson, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Florida State and BC
NC State, Virginia and Miami.

Which team ranked ahead of the Eagles do you think absolutely doesn't deserve to be?

Brian: I wouldn’t have BC too much higher, but definitely higher than 9th in the ACC. A couple of teams ranked above BC I’m not particularly high on though, and am surprised that BC is ranked lower than these two teams.

One of those teams is Florida State. Sure, BC loses 16.9 points per game of production in Tyrese Rice, but that is the only starter that the Eagles lose. On the other hand, the Seminoles not only have to replace their leader and ACC defensive player of the year Toney Douglas (21.5 ppg) but also lose Uche Echefu in the paint (8.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg). Douglas, in particular, was arguably a more valuable part of the Seminoles success last season than Rice was to the Eagles’ success, and it will be hard for the Seminoles to replace his offensive and defensive production.

The other team is Georgia Tech. Despite the arrival of all-world recruit Derrick Favors, I’m supposed to believe that Paul Hewitt is going to lead Tech from a 2-14 record to a top 4 finish in the league? (Even more surprisingly, two voters have Georgia Tech winning the conference’s regular season title??) I’m not following. The past four seasons, the team that finishes fourth in the league standings has won roughly 10 games. An 8-game swing season-over-season is a tall order for Hewitt’s young Yellow Jacket team. I don’t care how much recruiting talent you bring in; there will definitely be some teething issues in Atlanta.

The biggest reason I’m not very high on Georgia Tech this year is their ACC schedule. Georgia Tech may have the hardest schedule of any ACC program in 2009-2010. Check out which teams Georgia Tech has to play twice - Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State. Last year, Georgia Tech went a mere 2-6 against those teams, with one of those wins coming in the ACC Tournament vs. Clemson. I will be shocked if Georgia Tech can get through this slate of ACC games at 5-5. Paul Hewitt’s squad has nowhere to go but up, but a worst-to-top 4 league finish I think it a bit unrealistic.

However, as BC proves year in and year out, championships aren't won from preseason polls. They are won on the court.

Your obligatory ACC primer

SFBE.NF — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 03:19:13 -0000

So UNC cut down the nets last spring, lost 68 percent of their scoring, lost the nation's top point guard and the nation's blandest spokesman for AT&T, yet their still top dogs in the ACC. Sometimes, college basketball stinks. The Tar Heels return Ed Davis and one of the top recruiting classes in the country. It used to be that Duke would capitalize on such an opportunity, and once again be king of the ACC Castle. Not so fast. The biggest threat to the Heels this season is probably a balanced Georgia Tech team who may have the best center in the country in Derrick Favors. Maryland wants to mix it up too, with Greivis Vazquez and two frontcourt freshman in James Padgett and Jordan Williams.

From there the conference gets mediocre fairly quick. Clemson seems to get high praise, but when you look at their last six games from the previous two seasons, the Tigers were 4-8.

Our breakdown is after the jump

Tourney teams (in order of conference finish)

North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Duke
Maryland
Clemson
Wake Forest

All Conference Team

Greivis Vazquez, Maryland
Kyle Singler, Duke
Ed Davis, North Carolina
Derrick Favors, Georgia Tech
Gani Lawal, Georgia Tech

Most overrated - Duke's mystique. Paul Hewitt on the hot seat.

Most underrated - Gary Williams, Virginia Tech's Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen

Notable non-conference match-ups:

11/19 - 11/22 - Georgia Tech vs. Dayton and likely Villanova (in Puerto Rico)
12/2 - Illinois @ Clemson
12/5 - UNC @ Kentucky (as good as it gets)
12/6 - Maryland vs. Villanova (in D.C.)
12/19 - Duke vs. Gonzaga (@MSG)

Five story lines to keep tabs on:

Clemson. Can they have a complete season?
UNC. Do they become less irritating to all the cool people now that Tyler Hansbrough has moved on?
Michael Snaer. Is he the next Toney Douglas?
Blue Devil backcourt. Will Duke fans be subjected to Olek Czyz if a member of their backcourt suffers an injury?
Maryland fans. They are some of the most brutal in the nation (and we like that). Will they have reason to gloat while they hurl profanities at opponents visiting the Comcast Arena.

Will Derwin Kitchen Be The Answer to Toney Douglas's Departure?: A Four Factors Evaluation

TrueCubbie — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 01:44:04 -0000

The tale of Derwin Kitchen reveals a convoluted path that eventually brought Derwin to Tallahassee. Despite the effort and headaches that it took Derwin to join the Seminoles, he is a more than welcome addition to the team. Derwin made an immediate impact and provided much needed experience at the guard position to play along side Toney Douglas. Now, Derwin is one of the elder statesmen on the team as one of only two Juniors on the team. Today we look at Derwin's progression through the season and what his potential role will be on the 2009-2010 Seminole Basketball team.

Image from here.

Derwin graduated from Raines High School in Jacksonville, FL in 2005. His high school career was impressive, earning runner up to the Florida Mr. Basketball Award and All-State First team honors three times. He won two state titles and finished his career with a 98-26 record overall while setting school records for all time points, steals and assists. Derwin planned to attend the University of Florida after graduating, however he did not pass his Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT). Unfortunately, he was not able to graduate high school despite achieving the grades to do so. After a significant ammount of effort and attempts to attend a Division I school, Derwin's path lead him to Iowa Western Community College.

At IWCC, Derwin made the most of his opportunity and caught the eye of Leonard Hamilton. During his only season in Iowa, Kitchen averaged 14 points per game, 6.1 rebounds per game and 1.8 steals per game and was named to the Junior College All-America First Team. He played in 32 games and averaged 8.5 shot attempts per game and had multiple games with more than 5 assists per game. The Reivers, finished 11th overall in the Junior College rankings with a 28-5 record overall. Derwin signed with Florida State in May of 2008 and qualified to play in December of 2009. Hamilton had this to say about Derwin: "His size and athletic ability will allow him to fit in with the players on our team and with the recruits we will have joining our team for the upcoming season. His skills will be a tremendous compliment to the players on our roster. He will help make his teammates better and his new teammates will help make him a better player during his career as a Seminole."

Despite making his first court appearance well into December, Derwin became an active component of the offense and defense. Kitchen played in 26 games, averaging 7.8 points per game with a 45% FG%, 2.5 assists per game, 4.5 rebounds per game and 1.2 steals per game. He finished the year playing about 25 to 26 minutes per game, a respectible ammount of time given the team had a log jam at the guard position last year. Toney Douglas rarely came out of the game, leaving the second guard position to be filled by Kitchen, Loucks, Dulkys, Demercy (at times), Jordan and Hoff. Clearly, the primary rotation was between Kitchen, Loucks and Dulkys. Derwin took on the starting role by the end of the year, starting in 17 games on the year.

Derwin finished the year with the following line:

Here is a chart with the statistics from each game:

NCAA Basketball Stats

The more minutes he played the better he was, at least upon initial glances at this graph.The high point of Derwin's season was the Virginia Tech game on March 21st: 34 minutes 19 points, 8-11 from the floor and 3-3 from 3-point range.

Four Factors Evaluation

Remember, the "Four Factors" includes the following statistics: effective FG% ((FGM +0.5*3PM)/FGA), TO% (Turnovers divided by possessions), Offensive Rebounding% (OR/OR+DR) and Free throw rate (FTA/FGA). Again, these numbers are not a perfect way to evaluate a player at a given position, but serve as a reference tool and a common language from which to start a positional evaluation.

Turn off all of the raw stats (the column on the left) and only look at the trend lines. At first, you might find this chart troubling, similar to Luke Louck's chart. It is typical for a player's ORtg to go down as their minutes increase as there are more opportunities to decrease it. The ORtg is calculated by determining the number of points produced per 100 possessions. The details of the calculation are explained in Dean Oliver's book, which I am currently working on reading. Derwin finished the season with an ORtg of 98.4, compare that to 115.1 of Toney Douglas and 102.9 of Solomon Alabi.

Let's look at the more guard specific-metrics.

Again, this graph seems troubling as everything goes down as his minutes increase. Derwin was very effective in his first few games in limited minutes, which elevates his stats. If he had done poorly in those first few opportunities, the graph may have been reversed.Kitchen finished the year with a 20.8 Assist Rate, which is a measure of the percentage of field goals scored as a result of an assist from the individual player while he was on the floor. Toney Douglas has an ARate of 20.2. Despite limited minutes, and an offense that wasn't dependent on stellar guard passing ability, this is a respectable number. However, Derwin finished the year with a TO% of 25.1%, meaning he turned the ball over on 1 out of every 4 possessions. This needs to improve if his playing time is going to increase next year. Toney finished the year with a TO% of 20.2, meaning 1 out of every 5 possessions result in a turn over. With the pace at which FSU plays, 66 possessions per game, such high TO% are extremely counter productive. As a team, we had a TO% of 22.7. 14.6 of our 66.8 possessions resulted in a turnover. Imagine if only half of those possessions had resulted in points.

Despite the turnover concerns, Derwin excelled on the defensive end. His steal% was 2.6% or 430th in the nation, meaning that on 2.6% of the opponent's possessions resulted in a steal while he was on the court. Toney's was 2.9%. The impressive thing is that Derwin accomplished this while only committing 2.1 fouls per 40 minutes of game play. Not only does he play great defense, but he does so without jeopardizing his ability to stay on the floor.

Image from here.

Derwin has a significant upside and has demonstrated his abilities during the team's recent trip to spain. He had 7 assists in each of the Seminoles' games abroad. In the last game, he also had 7 rebounds. Clearly, Derwin's ability to handle the ball and his size, standing 6'4", provide him significant advantages at the point position. Towards the end of the year we saw his toughness and determination. Remember the Georgia Tech game?

Despite his rather circuitous course, Derwin has maintained his focus and continues to excel. He is a mature player who has the talent to lead our team to another NCAA appearance. If he can decrease his TO rate, I wouldn't be surprised if he and Snaer will run the back court this season. However, there is a lot of competition at the guard spot this year, which I think will be to our advantage. The distributive abilities of Kitchen and Loucks will complement nicely with Snaer's ability. The other nice skill set that Derwin demonstrates is his ability to score off the dribble in the lane; he isn't afraid to get dirty in the lane.

The Seminoles arrive back in Tallahassee this weekend. Classes start on August 24th. It will be fun to hear how this team continues to develop between now and midnight madness. The versatility that the Seminoles will have this year will be difficult to defend. Regardless of the combination of guards in the back court, the Seminoles will be making some noise on the national stage.

The Big Blue Daily Mail -- Celtic Wildcats Wednesday

Truzenzuzex — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 17:25:06 -0000

More photos » by Greg M. Cooper - AP

Rajon Rondo worked hard to get where he is, and has learned how to lead by example.

Browse more photos »

Two stories this morning, one about Rajon Rondo, who is doing really well in the NBA, and one about Antoine Walker, who is doing really poorly in ... well, in life, I guess.

What is interesting is that these two guys have a lot in common. Both were two-year players at UK, and both had really good but not great careers at UK, both have championships (Walker at UK and Miami and Rondo with the Celtics), both were McDonalds All-Americans and both were first-round draft picks. Walker had a solid NBA career but throughout 12 years, he has always been pegged with an attitude problem. I suppose some of those chickens have come home to roost in his recent legal troubles.

Antoine Walker is a bit of a cautionary tale for Rondo. His current woes are what can happen if you don't make the most of your time in the NBA or take it for granted. I sincerely hope he is paying attention.

UK Basketball News

Pearl speaks on Selby
I don't really see anything here to get exercised about. I think Pearl is right, and I think that Kentucky and Calipari did not contact Selby after he committed.
Scout.com: Now There's a Problem
I mostly agree with this piece, but I have to take exception to this graf:

Why is it unreasonable for Wildcat fans to demand excellence when other programs of similar historic stature can do so? North Carolina, UCLA, Duke, Indiana, Kansas, Connecticut, Michigan State and many other top quality programs wouldn't stand for a stretch that Kentucky has endured. There would be a lot of hand-wringing and complaining from any of those fans bases if recruiting had become virtually non-existent and if the quality wins became more and more rare.

Maybe the author has forgotten, but North Carolina, UCLA, and Indiana have gone through similar stretches. They did "stand for it" pretty much the same way UK has. One could argue that Duke is going through the beginnings of one right now.

UK Football News

UK Football: UK-Western deal a plus for state: WinchesterSun.com
This is great for UK and my alma mater. The question is, if I go to the game, who will I cheer for? Hmm ...
Should UK fans be concerned with the football recruiting?
Wildcat Blue in a Sea of Orange is wondering about our 2010 recruiting, too.
Countdown: UK vs. non-conference opponents John Clay’s Sidelines
New fact or issue each day for the next 40 days.
Seats Available for Kickoff Luncheon
Just so you know.
Hometown Report: SEC will challenge Brooks, Kentucky
The Sacramento Bee takes note of Rich Brooks' success, and his comments at SEC Media Days.

Other UK Sports News

None today

NCAA Sports News

Plenty of passers getting thrown in the SEC fire
I say it's slim pickings.
Anything but Gatorade: More Previews Not Written By Me
Funny, sad, bewildering story of the day
Truly, this saga just makes you wonder, "What the ...???"

Other News of Interest

Which is better, SEC football vs. Big East basketball?
Bozich picks the right answer, although I admit to a strong bias.
This is Sick - High School Highlights of Kevin Garnett
Yeah. He was pretty much above average back then, too.
Think before you tweet
Always good advice, before tweeting, talking or writing.

The Daily Schadenfreude

"What I did on My Summer Vacation"
June 30th.... Hung out with Ej today and ASked him if the story about him going to Kentucky waiving the Ku T-shirt was true, and he confirmed it was. To which I responded, while you were there did Calipari try to steal your recruitment too..... He laughed and said, Calipari was too busy finding someone to take John Wall's SAT's for him.

Have a laugh now, guys. I will enjoy your future pain.
Duke’s BIG Recruit: Josh Hairston | Box of M.E.S.S.
Did Kentucky or Memphis ever get in on your recruitment. If so, were you lured off by all the scandals that are going on there? No they did not.

Scandals at Kentucky? Please. What a bogus question.

Summer Basketball Update: Meet the New Guys

TrueCubbie — Sat, 18 Jul 2009 03:38:54 -0000

Basketball recruiting is a skill that Florida State has typically excelled at given the conference in which it plays. Florida State is a football school first, second and third and the rest of the sports fall where they may after that. However, despite not being considered an elite basketball school, recruiting success is as much a part of the story of FSU Basketball history as Bobby Sura is.

This year's recruiting class added four nice additions to Leonard Hamilton's squad: Michael Snaer, Terrance Shannon, Bernard James (if he makes it as a walk on) and Jon Kreft.

Before you read this, please check out the excellent article from FrankDNole and friends on FSU's #1 Offensive Players.

Meet Michael Snaer:

Yes, he's ours for the time being.

Image from here.

After last year's 25-10 record and first appearance in the NCAA tournament in 11 years, the 'Noles are looking to continue their success. Last year's recruiting class included some outstanding additions to the team: Chris Singleton, Xavier Gibson, Luke Loucks and David Dulkys. Pierre Jordan was a part of that class but saw limited minutes (He played in 6 games and only averaged 4.6 minutes of game play.) Last year's recruiting class entered with high expectations and delivered. Despite having one of the youngest teams in the country and little chemistry, the Seminoles made it to the ACC Championship Game and were finally recognized at the national level. Unfortunately, despite all of the excitement for next year, the Seminoles lost their leader: Toney Douglas, who was drafted in the first round of the NBA draft by the New York Knicks. Now, the core of young players that entered last fall, must fill the void left by Toney's departure. This is an enormous challenge, but they are getting some help.

Let's take a look at the additions to the team:

Michael Snaer 6'5 200lbs SG Moreno Valley, CA

In one of the biggest surprises of the recruiting season, Leonard Hamilton was able to sign Michael in November of his senior year, during the early signing period. Ranked 7th overall and the 2nd best shooting guard in the 2009 Recruiting class, Snaer chose to sign with FSU over Kansas, Marquette, Missouri and UCLA. Despite being one of the top recruits in the country, Michael is from Moreno Valley, CA. Snaer is an outstanding addition to the Seminoles and will play a huge role in making up the offensive void left by Toney's departure. During his senior season, many commented on Snaer's decision making and shot selection and he actually dropped on a few recruiting boards. But, his performance at the McDonald's All-American Game and other post-season tournaments quickly placed Michael as one of the top recruits in the country. Most recruiting boards list his 3-point scoring ability and scoring threat as his major attributes. After watching numerous videos of Michael, he is an absolute athletic freak. He can score around the basket with both hands and can shoot from well beyond the three point line. One of the major themes of most recruiting boards is his ability to handle the ball. However, that will not be his role on the 2009-2010 team. He is a true shooting guard and it will be up to the likes of Loucks and Kitchen to get him the ball.

Photos from here.

During his senior year, Snaer average 28.1ppg, 10.8 rpg, 5.2 apg, 3.6 steal and 2.2 blocks. He was named the 2009 California Gatorade Player of the Year. He was also named MVP of a some major post-season tournaments. The thing that is most impressive about Snaer is that he truly fits the mold of a Hamilton player: a gifted athlete that loves to play defense. Many scouts, NBA and college, have commented on his commitment to defense and his raw athletic talent. Many are considering him a one-and-done. I think he is still too raw for that but I don't doubt that he will play at the next level.

Here is one of Snaer's most recent highlight tapes. Many say that Michael's effort, skills, defensive intensity and determination derive from the fact that he went relatively unnoticed until late in the recruiting process. Here is an excellent interview from Ballislife.com with Michael. And here is another highlight tape from Michael. I hope this gives you some sense of the level of player that we are getting this fall. Here is Michael's blog from the McDonald's All-American Game. He is a perfect fit in the Hamilton school of basketball and will contribute from the start. I can only imagine what it will be like to have Snaer, Singleton, and Alabi on the floor at the same time.

Jon Kreft 6'11 260lbs C Parkland, FL

Earlier in the year, I wrote this piece about Jon, detailing his rather circuitous path to the Seminoles. To summarize, Jon was originally part of the 2006 recruiting class for the Seminoles, a 5-star recuit out of Parkland, Florida. However, he ran into a little bit of trouble with the law and had his scholarship offer rescineded from Florida State. After serving his time, Jon enrolled in Chipola College, a community college in Marianna, FL, which is a feeder school to a lot of Division 1 programs. During his time at Chipola, Jon had no disciplinary problems and excelled on the court. If you look at his stats, they aren't that impressive. But, in general, Chipola gives all of its players time on the court in the hopes of getting them recognized in game activity.

Images from here.

When I wrote the piece mentioned before, one of our readers, freshcollegeboy, who attends Chipola College, had the following to say about "Big Jon":

I’m currently attending Chipola College (technically no longer a JC) and have been to about half the games. John Kreft, more commonly reffered to as "Big John", has been a serious force for our team this year. Unfortunately, Chipola is notorius for being a fast paced run and shoot team that plays very good defense. From the games I have seen, They don’t feed him enough, as he is almost lights out from under the basket and has nice touch for the turnaround J. As for him as a person I have talked to him a few times and am in the "know" around school, and the kid is a good guy. I’ve heard nothing but positives from him and the people around him. I hear our coach is constantly reminding him and several other players that the choices they make here will affect the rest of their college career.

The main reason Big John didn’t get the touches he should have, was because of teammate and 2009 NJCAA Player of the Year Casey Mitchell (signed with WVU), who is just ridiculous. I heard FSU was looking at him but got no interest. That doesn’t change the fact, however, that I thing John has the potential to be a great post man, but he runs the floor extremely well, and can throw down some monster slams! I literally saw him during a game this past year do a between the legs slams! Like it was a dunk contest. . . only during a game :)

The Chipola Program has a history of taking troubled players and bringing out their potential while helping put their head back on their shoulders. Our President calls us the "School of Second Chances" because we basically get the good players that don’t perform off the field and mentor them back to or into D1 schools. We’ve had numerous D1 players and a one or two NBA players make a pit stop at Chipola.

I don’t think he could be a true Power Forward as he doesn’t have a strong mid-range game and I’ve never seen him even attempt anything around the 3 line (honestly he’s never had the chance nor needed too as Chipola had several who could light it up from wayyy downtown). In my opinion he would be a very good 4-5 Hybrid with Alabi on the floor. Nobody would have the size to compete with down low in offense or defense.

Also Big Jon does use his body very well. He weighs pretty decent but he plays with almost too much intensity and will throw his body around. A big body like his diving into the stands for a loose ball scares me but I’ve seen him do it several times without injury. When he gets angry he plays much better and gets very aggressive (at least once in every game lol). I think Florida State and Big Jon will both get a positive out of him playing there.

Oh yeah and he has a habit of yelling very loudly whenever he dunks. which is fairly often. :)

Here is Jon's highlight tape from Chipola. Jon is a great addition to the team and I can't wait to see the rotation of Alabi, Gibson and Kreft in the front court. We were the tallest team in the country last year and I wouldn't be surprised if we are again next year. Once again, Jon fits well into the Hamilton school of basketball. He's aggressive, athletic and has a good basic skill set. He needs to refine his game around the post. But, I hope that he and Alabi can rub off on each other. Look for Jon to contribute from the start of the season. With Echefu's departure, we need another threat in the low post area and someone to clean up on the boards. Unfortunately, I don't think Kreft's FT shooting is nearly as good as Echefu's. I like the fact that he is going to bring a lot of energy and emotion to the court.

Terrance Shannon 6'7" 190 - 205 lbs PF Forsyth, Georgia

Terrance is is a 3-star recruit out of Forsyth, Georgia who ranked 132nd overall in the class of 2009 and the 36th power forward overall. He received offers from FSU, Nebraska, Xavier, Memphis, Georgia Tech, LSU, Maryland, Tennessee Tech and Auburn to name a few. The word on the street is that Terrance is raw athlete who needs to develop his basic skill set. I wouldn't be surprised if he is a late bloomer. Fortunately, we have enough versatile big men on our team that an immediate impact isn't necessary. Plus, Terrance tore his ACL in AAU play and sat out his senior season. His reported strengths are rebounding, toughness and his wingspan.

Image from here.

Last summer, Terrance had the opportunity to play in the 2008 adidas Super 64 tournament, a tournament that featured some of the top recruits in the country: Derrick Favors and Milton Jennings. This is what the scouting reports had to say after the game:

Shannon did yeoman's work on the glass -- particularly on the offensive end. He used his strength and quick leaping ability in addition to an impressive second jump to snare offensive rebounds, only to convert them into baskets. He contested shots on the defensive end and ran the floor with great ease. Unfortunately, Shannon sustained a knee injury in his second game and could not follow up his quality performance. Source: ESPN.com

Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find any free video on Terrance. For those of you who have a Rivals subscription, there is one video there. Everything I have read about Terrance is promising. Some say he is undersized but has an unbelievable motor around the basket and makes plays. He also has a nose for the ball and rebounds well. This reminds me of a certain undersized power forward from Pitt who had an outstanding college career (and by the way he had knee injuries as well):

Image from here.

I wish I could predict that Terrance will develop into a Blair like player, but a lot of the language that is being used to describe Terrance reminds me of that used to describe Blair. Terrance will need to develop his strength and size if he is going to survive in the paint but he has the frame to develop. If his knee is healthy, which is should be at this point, look for Terrance to provide significant minutes off the bench in relief of Reid. Yes, Ryan Reid is likely to be our starting Power Forward this year.

Bernard James 6'9" 250 PF Savannah, GA

Who? The word on the street is that Bernard James is going to try and walk on to the Seminoles this year after having a successful season at Tallahassee Commnunity College. I hope that he does. Bernard has also had a different path to collegiate basketball, though quite the opposite from Jon Kreft. Despite not playing basketball in high school, Bernard could be another physical presence in the post this year. Remember, Solomon Alabi didn't start playing basketball until his junior year of high school. Before entering Tallahassee Community College, he was a Staff Seargent in the United States Air Force. During his time in the military, he earned his was onto the United States' Armed Forces All-Star Team. In 2008, that team won the International Military Sports Council Basketball Championship, defeating Lithuania 84 - 74. He was the MVP of the tournament and named to the All-Tournament team. Are you interested yet? During his freshman year, he started 18 games, shot 62% from the floor, 55% from the FT line, averaged 12 points per game and 8 rebounds per game.

Images from here.

Look at the wing span. I don't know for sure if Bernard is going to make the team or not as he has not been made an official offer, but apparently he is going to try and walk on. With his size, success and talent, I hope he will make it to the team. Even though Xavier Gibson can play the pseudo-4, it would be nice to have a true 4 to play behind Reid.

In Other News:

Basketball practice started on July 17th and things look good for the Noles. Alabi has put on some weight, Reid has lost some weight and Singleton has bulked up (a little). One of our biggest concerns last year was that Solomon Alabi needed to increase his strength to allow him to truly dominate in the paint. He consistently showed flashes of brilliance but didn't have the power to consistently take the ball to the basket and finish. He looks good and I think we will see significant gains in his game this year. Ryan Reid looks as if he has lost a few pounds, which will help with his endurance. With the departure of Echefu, look for Reid to get a majority of the playing time. Remember, he was the starter at the beginning of the season last year but lost the job to Echefu. Gibson also looks like he has matured physically. He could secretly develop into a dominant player. He has a fluid game and is able to play with his back to the basket or shoot a jump shot from 10 feet. Snaer is apparently tearing it up in pick up games and has been taking on the likes of former NBA player Jason Rich. Freshman are not allowed to officially participate in practice until they are enrolled at FSU. Corey Clark has a nice article about the first practice of the year.

What about Toney? Do you miss him yet? Truehoop had this to say about Toney:

The Knicks' Toney Douglas continued to struggle shooting the ball, but he performed his primary function as floor general quite well. He gave the Knicks what they needed at the point -- game management, penetration and kicking, creating for others, and, most of all, solid on-ball defense at that position. Douglas now has 21 assists to only two turnovers in his two games. Not bad for a guy who started out as a combo guard.

He's even getting some love from the New York Times. Our suspicions were correct: Toney will be successful at the next level.

Those are the updates for now. I will have an update on the 2010 recruiting class shortly. There are some outstanding, absolutely outstanding, recruits who have FSU on the list and we're making offers. This could be a really exciting year for FSU basketball. Please let me know if there are any other players you would like to hear about or any other basketball related topics. As we approach the start of the season, will have individual player profiles and previews similar to last year. Again, the information regarding Kreft and James is what I was able to pull from the internet. I have not heard officially whether or not they will be on the team or what the plan is. Will let you know if I have any updates.

Cheers,

D-Day for DaJuan Update: Summers to Knicks?

CasualHoya — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 21:06:50 -0000

According to Espn.com's Chad Ford:

-- And with the Knicks buying the Lakers' pick at 29, I have them taking Florida State's Toney Douglas. GM Donnie Walsh is a big fan of Douglas, who is a great shooter and a terrific defender -- sort of a poor man's Ben Gordon. DaJuan Summers and Derrick Brown are other potential targets for the Knicks there.

The Knicks!

Since 1957, there have been a total of 40 NBA draft picks to come out of Georgetown, with 21 of those picks coming in the top 2 rounds (the NBA went to the current 2 round format in 1989). If the Knicks do wind up taking Summers at #29, DaJuan will become the 10th Hoya out of the 40 to join the Knicks.

The list: Jim Christie, Ken Davis, Patrick Ewing, Michael Jackson, Dikembe Mutombo, Othella Harrington, Jerome Williams, Mike Sweetney, and Patrick Ewing, Jr.

Here's a clip of Roy Hibbert interviewing consensus #1 pick Blake Griffin. Nice glasses, Roy.

The Draft begins in 3 hours.

Casually.

Bobcats Pre-draft Workout Video: Stephen Curry, Danny Green, Gerald Henderson

David Arnott — Sat, 06 Jun 2009 00:35:58 -0000

There really isn't much to see in the last fifteen minutes of an NBA team's pre-draft workout. Thursday morning, I went to the Bobcats' workout with Stephen Curry, Toney Douglas, Danny Green, Gerald Henderson, KC Rivers, and Garrett Temple. As you can tell from the video below, which I shot for The Baseline, figuring out which 20-year-old is going to be a pillar of your franchise for the next decade from having them run back and forth and shooting with no defense seems like a futile exercise.

Sure, there are identifiable differences between the players. Watch Curry in the video. You won't see him miss a shot, because he didn't miss any. I can really tell from the video is that Toney Douglas is nowhere near the caliber of shooter as Stephen Curry, which you can see from the segments where they shoot side by side. We didn't get to see any of the defensive drills, and even if we had, what good does a defensive drill do if you don't have a five on five situation to work with?

A single workout is such a small sliver of performance that we can't really tell anything meaningful. Even if Curry picked up Larry Brown's instructions more quickly than anyone else, so what? NBA players have all the time in the world to devote to the game, and if one guy doesn't learn as fast as another in a "classroom" setting, that doesn't necessarily mean that the bar is lower for what can be expected of him. It's just that he'll have to work longer hours, and he might actually be capable of doing more.

In any event, enjoy the video, because it has footage of Curry showing that, in a confined and controlled practice environment, he's an extremely impressive NBA prospect. After the action footage, stick around for clips from the post-workout interview scrums.

Toney Douglas and the NBA Draft: Can Toney Jump into the First Round?

TrueCubbie — Fri, 22 May 2009 05:00:13 -0000

Clearly, it has been relatively quiet in the world of FSU basketball and I have been swamped at work, which has made for little noise on Tomahawk Nation from TC and for that I apologize.

On Tuesday night, the NBA held it's annual draft lottery and there has been the typical off season bump in college basketball discussion...

Prior to the draft lottery, Toney Douglas was getting little to no love from the "experts."

Photo from here.

However, on Wednesday morning I found this and was delighted...

From espn.com

Not only was I excited that Toney was getting mentioned in the first round but it was suggested that my Chicago Bulls would be the ones to pick him up. Chad Ford also said that DeJuan Blair would drop to 16 for the Bulls as well. After I returned to reality, I decided to take a look at Toney's career and how he compares to the other guards in this years draft.

Outside of ACC country, Toney Douglas is not a household name and until recently he wasn't getting significant recognition in pre-draft discussions and mock draft boards. However, the morning after the NBA Draft Lottery, Chad Ford from ESPN.com predicted Toney to be drafted by the Chicago Bulls with the 26th pick in the first round. I'm sure this raised a few eyebrows that were associated with a "Who?" comment.

Toney, originally a member of the 2004 recruiting class, was a Rivals.com and Scout.com 4-Star recruit out of Jonesboro High School in Jonesboro, Georgia. He was the 66th ranked player overall and the 14th shooting guard overall by Rivals.com and the 20th Point guard overall by Scout.com. He played for the Atlanta Prep Stars AAU team. During his junior year of high school, he scored 29.3 points per game with 7.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists. He signed with Auburn in October of his senior year. During his senior year, he averaged 34 points per game, 7.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists. He had 6 triple-doubles and shot 52% from the 3-point line during that year. Toney's high school resume was impressive. He was named to 1st team All State honors from the Atlanta Journal Constitution from 2002-2004. He was the AJC Player of the Year in 2003 and 2004. He led his team back to back state post-season play, including the State Championship game in 2002. According to Rivals.com, Toney only received offers from Clemson and Auburn. Keep in mind, however, that the 2004 recruiting class included Dwight Howard, Al Jefferson, Rudy Gay, Glenn Davis, Josh Smith and LaMarcus Aldridge, to name a few.

Photo from here.

Despite a short stint at Auburn, Toney made an impact. During his only season with the Tigers, he started all 31 games and averaged 16.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.4 steals. Toney's success earned him a spot on the Freshman All-American Third Team and All-SEC Third Team. He scored the team's season high with 38 points against Nicholls State. Toney was fourth in scoring in the conference that year and the nation's second highest scoring freshman. Looking to make a quick move to the next level, Toney tried his luck in the NBA draft after his freshman year. However, he withdrew before the draft occurred. Upset with Toney's actions and decision, Aubrun released Toney. Leonard Hamilton, Florida State's Basketball Coach, recognized Toney's potential and started recruiting him heavily. Hamilton is known for identifying raw talent and recruiting better talent than expected at what is not currently considered an elite basketball school in the ACC.

Leonard Hamilton had this to say of his new recruit: "We are very excited to have a player with Toney's talent in our program. He is a player with proven scoring abilities and an unselfish spirit who enjoys getting his teammates involved in running the offense. On top of that, he quickly showed our staff and players that he has great character and will fit into our program nicely."

After sitting out the 2005-2006 season, Toney's career developed nicely in his three years with the Semnioles. His accolades with the Seminoles are many and I will only list a few of them here. As a senior, Toney was named to the AP and Sporting News All-America 3rd Teams, he was First Team All-ACC, he was the ACC Defensive player of the year and runner up for the ACC Player of the Year. He was a Bob Cousy Award Finalist. He was the 2008 Global Sports Classic Tournament MVP. During his Junior year, he was named to All-ACC Third Team and was on the All-ACC Defensive team. He averaged 23 points per game in ACC play in the 2008-2009 season. He finished his career as a 37.6% 3-point shooter and an 80.6% FT shooter.

Taking a closer look at how Toney's career has developed should give you some sense of what kind of player he is and what he will be able to do in the NBA.

NCAA Basketball Stats

With the exception of his first year at FSU, Toney essentially played every minute of every game in his college career, taking limited breaks. He is an absolute warrior and has the toughness to endure though fatigue and wear and tear of playing a lot of minutes on a regular basis. This bodes well with Toney as he looks toward the NBA. So often you hear the NBA analysts talking about how rookies tend to slump or wear down late in the season as they are not used to playing so many games and so many minutes. Toney has proved that he can endure lots of minutes.

NCAA Basketball Stats

He also had a huge jump in his offensive rating this year, which is likely due to our entire offense being based on Toney. This is a really interesting chart as you can see that his points and eFG% did not change that much, despite the fact that his shot percentage increase by 8% this year compared to his previous averages.

The other skill that Toney possess is his consistency from the FT line. He makes opponents pay for putting him on the line. He is one of the best FT shooters in FSU history.

College Basketball Stats by StatSheet.com

The other feature that sets Toney apart is his defensive ability and this will be his key to success in the NBA. For his entire career, he faced some of the best guards in the country night in and night out. For the past two years, he has been named ACC Defensive Team and was the ACC Defensive Player of the year in 2009. He was also named to the Fox Sports All-American Defensive team. This cannot be stressed enough, Toney loves to play defense. He puts as much, if not more, energy into his defense as his offense. He is accustomed to playing man to man defense and enjoys it: "The main reason I think I play good defense is because in this league, there's a lot of good guards. If you don't play good defense, you get exposed real quick. It's a pride thing."

After a battling with Duke this season, Coach Mike Krzyzewski had this to say about Toney: "He's as good as there is in college." He even labeled Toney as his favorite non-Duke player and would love to have him on his team, quite a complement from a Hall of Fame coach who is accustomed to having some of the best talent in the country on his team.

NBA teams that are drafting late in the first round are not looking for players to take over a team and lead them to a championship. They are looking for the key role-players, the kids to develop behind their superstars. They are not looking for, nor expecting to find, a Derick Rose, Blake Griffin or Michael Beasley.

Photo from here.

Toney will contribute at the NBA level. It is exciting to see that he is finally getting national press as the draft approaches. Toney has made a huge impact on the Seminoles, leading them to their first ACC Championship game ever and their first appearance in the NCAA tournament in 11 years. He is a leader. He has outstanding basketball knowledge and he is an absolute competitor. As we approach the draft, how does Toney compare to the other guards in the draft?

In Chad Ford's initial Mock Draft (It's up to you to decide whether you agree or disagree with it), he has the following Point Guards listed ahead of Toney: (Draft position in parentheses) Ricky Rubio- Spain (3), Brandon Jennings- Italy (7), Stephen Curry- Davidson (8), Jrue Holiday- UCLA (10), Jonny Flynn- Syracuse (13), Eric Maynor- VCU (17), Jeff Teague- Wake Forest (19), Ty Lawson- UNC (22), Nick Calathes- UF (23), Dareen Collison- UCLA (24).

I cannot comment on Ricky Rubio or Brandon Jennings as I have not seen them play this year, nor do I have a good set of stats for them as I don't follow European basketball that closely or at all.

Here is a comparison of Toney against Curry, Holiday, Flynn, Maynor and Teague. We have already seen how Douglas compares with Lawson (This is a link to a discussion on our blog after Lawson was named ACC Player of the year, clearly heavily biased opinions from our fans): neither one could stop the other but Douglas's numbers were better this year.

The following stats look at each players career numbers year by year. Clearly, some of these players only have one season under his belt and therefore the stats are limited.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Please keep in mind that these players play in completely different conferences and have different roles on their respective teams, this is simply for comparison.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Toney's senior offensive rating is as high as the others. Is this a result of Toney being a "late bloomer" or is it dependent on each player's role on their respective team? Flynn and Teague had to step up and lead their teams this year, as did Toney.

In terms of eFG%, Toney is consistent. Currey came back to reality this year and Toney is not significantly different from the others.

NCAA Basketball Stats

So everything seems perfect in the world of Toney Douglas so far. He can shoot, he plays a ton of minutes, he makes his free throws and plays some of the best defense in the country. The major knock that he has against him is his ability to distribute the ball.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Florida State's offense is not designed to highlight the passing abilities of a guard. The Seminole's offense depended on Toney. As you can see from the following chart, he was the Seminoles superstar on both ends of the court and their success was dependent on Toney's success.

NCAA Basketball Stats

The Seminoles offense was not based on a dribble-drive motion offense or a classic pick and roll style. Hamilton primarily used a motion offense as his base set this year. However, due to the youth our our team, it took a long team for the offense to gel and for players to move well with out the ball, limiting Toney's opportunities to distribute the ball. I do not think that this should be a knock against Toney. Put him in the right system and he will do fine. Toney is not going to be the next Steve Nash of the NBA. I don't think I surprised anyone with that statement.

Photo from here.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Despite having one of the highest steals per game and steal percentages, Toney did not commit that many more fouls per game than his colleagues. He is a crafty, energetic defender and he loves it. Keep in mind, that the ACC probably has some of the best guards in the country and is probably the deepest conference in the country for guard play: Ty Lawson, Gerald Henderson, Jeff Teague, Ogelsby, Rice, Bowie and so on. Not only did Toney shut these guys down (or limit them) he put up excellent offensive numbers.

Draft Express did an excellent job breaking down the numbers for all of the guards in this year's draft. I will not summarize their data but here is a link to their article. It is long, but I highly recommend it.

Here is what they had to say about our Toney:

• Toney Douglas, was one of the most efficient players on our list, using over 20 possessions per game (20.7). His overall PPP of 1.04 was the second best of all players, while his PPP as a finisher of 1.22 was sixth best. As a jump shooter, he scored 1.41 PPP on unguarded catch and shoot attempts, and 1 PPP on pull ups. A gifted off the ball player who scores 1.23 PPP (5th) shooting off of screens and 1.14 PPP in spot up situations, Douglas is only an average shot creator (.85 Isolation PPP), but he doesn’t turn the ball over in the half court almost at all (9.7%, 2nd), has experience running the pick and roll (5.3 Pos/G, 2nd), is an excellent defender, and seems like an ideal complement to a taller ball-handling guard. His stock has risen in recent months, and will be interesting to how his limitations as a distributor (he ranks dead last in amongst all passing metrics amongst draft-eligible PGs) factor in to where he’s selected on draft day.

Again, keep in mind the Seminoles offensive system with regards to Toney's passing metrics. They didn't run an offense that was dependent on Toney's ability to pass the ball.

Draft Express lists the following as Toney's Strengths:

Ability to get to the free throw line

Ball Handling Skills

Lateral Quickness

Man-Man Defense

Outstanding Defender

Pressure Defense

Aggressiveness

Leadership Skills

Work Ethic

Athleticism

Strength

Wingspan

3 Point Range

Ability to Catch and Shoot

Ability to Come off Screens

Pull-up Jumper

In my opinion, that sounds like the exact skill set you want in a point guard in the NBA but with features of an offensive threat. Toney can play one on one on both ends of the court and his style of play is already adjusted to the style of play in the NBA.

Draft Express listed his decision making, shot selection, stuck between 1-2, older than class peers, poor passes, undersized and ability to finish around the basket as his weaknesses.

Image from here.

Toney can finish around the rim; it's not the focus of his game. You could argue that he forced up some poor shots this year, but he didn't have many options to distribute the ball instead of shooting, particularly at the beginning of the season. The Seminoles were one of the youngest college teams in the country and it was up to Toney to lead the way. Many argue that Toney doesn't have a defined position, like a Ben Gordon of the Chicago Bulls. Here is Toney's response to such comments: "I call myself a guard. I'm not a natural point. I'm not a natural two. I'm just a guard. I can do both. Me being versatile, I think I'm more of a threat out there on the court." You can find that quote and many others from this nice Sporting News article.

Here is a nice interview with Toney during the past season. Here is a nice video of Toney Douglas highlights from the 2008-2009 season. Here is the Seminoles.com interview with Toney.

Toney will be able to play night in and night out in the NBA. He will not likely be on the cover of NBA Live but I really think he can be a contributor and help an elite club. Toney has the character, courage, ability and desire to play at the next level.

What do you think about Toney's future NBA career? Where should he be drafted? What team do you think will benefit most from a player like Toney?

The main point to take from this article is that Toney is just as good as the guys being discussed ahead of him and he is ready to play in the NBA. I don't buy into the 'he's already 23 why would anyone draft him?" argument. Toney is not looking to become the next Derrick Rose. I'm just delighted my team already has a guy like Rose and it would be delightful to see Toney join him.

As always, I appreciate feedback and input and suggestions for articles. This is a quiet time of the year for college basketball. If we add any major players during recruiting, I'll keep you updated.

Cheers,

2009 NBA Draft Mock: Post-Lottery Edition

Scott Schroeder — Wed, 20 May 2009 06:54:14 -0000

Here is Ridiculous Upside's 2009 NBA Mock draft, version 2.0, as the lottery on May 19 will certainly bring more changes. As always, check out our Guide To Mock Drafts to answer any questions before any flambéing occurs. After the jump we provide brief analysis on all 30 picks, along with links to blogs about each team and player. Feel the excitement!!

Before you start freaking out, and because I know not everyone will click over to read our Guide to Mock Drafts, here's an excerpt:

So unless otherwise noted, all Ridiculous Upside Mock Drafts are based on what we feel are the best fits for the given team's personnel. To this end, selections are rarely made based on the "best talent available" theorem. We don't assert that these mock drafts should be considered accurate predictors, professional insight, or anything other than a work of opinion. Awesome, awesome opinion.

Any other issues? Leave feedback in the comments! Unless it's where I slotted a big man.. Then just know I hate them just as much as you do, but I did have reasoning for selecting them there. If your mock draft is better, post it in the fan shots and, if we like it, it could make the front page!

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Los Angeles Clippers	Ricky Rubio
2	Memphis Grizzlies	Blake Griffin
3	Oklahoma City Thunder	Hasheem Thabeet
4	Sacramento Kings	Brandon Jennings
5	Washington Wizards	Jordan Hill
6	Minnesota Timberwolves	James Harden
7	Golden State Warriors	Tyreke Evans
8	New York Knicks	Ty Lawson
9	Toronto Raptors	Demar DeRozan
10	Milwaukee Bucks	Jonny Flynn
11	New Jersey Nets	James Johnson
12	Charlotte Bobcats	Gerald Henderson
13	Indiana Pacers	Jrue Holiday
14	Phoenix Suns	Earl Clark
15	Detroit Pistons	Terrence Williams
16	Chicago Bulls	DeJuan Blair
17	Philadelphia 76ers	Stephen Curry
18	Minnesota Timberwolves	Jeff Teague
19	Atlanta Hawks	BJ Mullens
20	Utah Jazz	Tyler Hansbrough
21	New Orleans Hornets	Chase Budinger
22	Dallas Mavericks	Eric Maynor
23	Sacramento Kings	Austin Daye
24	Portland Trailblazers	Nick Calathes
25	Oklahoma City Thunder	Darren Collison
26	Chicago Bulls	Wayne Ellington
27	Memphis Grizzlies	Toney Douglas
28	Minnesota Timberwolves	Omri Casspi
29	Los Angeles Lakers	Sam Young
30	Cleveland Cavaliers	Patrick Mills

1. Los Angeles Clippers - Ricky Rubio PG (DKV Joventut)

Griffin has been the consensus number one overall. I know this. There is no need to remind me. However, bare with me. Would you really like to see Blake Griffin develop around Chris Kaman and Zach Randolph? Neither would I. He'd be just as good as he has been in college (which could be his ceiling anyway) if his coaches are those two and Mike Dunleavy. Why not take Rubio and get rid of Baron Davis (easier than Randolph, I imagine) at the end of the season after Rubio's had a year of American basketball. Or at least until Davis gets hurt next season.

2. Memphis Grizzlies - Blake Griffin PF (Oklahoma Sophomore)
Griffin is a complete monster, shown via his domination of all things college basketball, including the ladies. Typically considered the top player in the draft, I have him with the Grizzlies because Darrell Arthur and Hakim Warrick aren't the answer (anywhere) and I would hate to watch him in Los Angeles when Rubio fills a need there as well. Plus, Mayo-Gay-Griffin will win a 3-on-3 tourney against the rest of the NBA.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder - Hasheem Thabeet C (UCONN Junior)
Thabeet is a rare player, a 7'3 center who blocks everything. Just his presence makes players flinch and blow easy lay-ups. He also can hit a 15-foot jump shot and is not a horrible FT shooter for a player of his size. The ThunderSonics have not had the greatest luck drafting 7-foot+ dudes (Mo Sene, Robert Swift, Johan Petro), but I think Thabeet would fit very well with this team. They have offense, why not draft some defense?

4. Sacramento Kings - Brandon Jennings PG (Lottomatica Roma, Italy)
Jennings was rated by some people as the #1 player in his high school class. He has tons of talent, but ended up in Italy after his grades didn't live up to Arizona's standards. Jennings didn't do anything special in Europe, but I think he'll be a better NBA player. In addition to this, he's the best point guard available, he's got plenty of potential, and he's not Beno Udrih. Case closed.

5. Washington Wizards - Jordan Hill PF (Arizona Junior)
Hill is big, strong, athletic and willing to pound the glass and defend the post - you will have a man crush on him soon. He averaged 18 points and 11 rebounds per game this past season at Arizona - double-double's in college aren't easy to come by. Would Antawn Jamison moving to the 3 be terrible? I wouldn't mind seeing what transpired either way. My favorite part? Hill says himself that he has "Ridiculous" Upside.

6. Minnesota Timberwolves - James Harden SG (Arizona State Sophomore)
I've said it before - he is not the best athlete in the draft. Harden plays more like a crafty vet with high basketball IQ and strong fundamentals. I really like Harden, and picking him at six wouldn't be bad for a weak Minnesota backcourt. If nothing else, I hear he's intelligent. Maybe he can jump into the GM spot as well?

7. Golden State Warriors - Tyreke Evans G (Memphis Freshman)
Evans began his freshman season as a 2-guard at Memphis, but exploded when John Calipari moved him to the point. The Golden State Warriors would be very happy to have him here, as he's big enough to play either position and can handle the ball. Hopefully his size would be able to offset what Monta Ellis brings to this team as his backcourt mate. Suck Squad no more? No. But getting closer!

8. New York Knicks - Ty Lawson PG (UNC Junior)
Mike D'antoni wants to play at high speeds and no one knows how to play fast and smart better than Lawson. He's the type of point D'antoni likes - perfect for the Knicks. If Griffin wasn't the biggest no-brainer of the draft at the two-spot, this is. It just feels right, ya know? (That's what she said.)

9. Toronto Raptors - Demar DeRozan SG (USC Freshman)
DeRozan is a pure scorer, as he can hit from deep or remind you of Vince Carter with his finishes at the rim. He was the best freshman coming in last season and improved at USC as the season wore on. Could he one day evolve into the 2nd coming of Vince Carter for the Raptors? Who knows, but they'll like him more than they currently like VC. If he can find some handles and bring some defense, the Raptors will be getting a steal.

10. Milwaukee Bucks - Jonny Flynn PG (Syracuse Sophomore)
The Bucks will more than likely either be without Charlie Villanueva or Ramon Sessions next season. In a weak draft for forwards, it seems like a good idea to hold onto Villanueva and let Sessions find greener pastures. The only thing that worriesmes is his shooting, but not enough to hurt his stock after his impressive Big East tourney.

11. New Jersey Nets - James Johnson SF (Wake Forest Sophomore)
The Nets need a small forward. Johnson can play the small forward. He's got a big body, he's versatile, he can score, and he's only going to get better. He should be able to contribute right away. I like this guy.

12. Charlotte Bobcats - Gerald Henderson SG (Duke Junior)
Henderson is a stud. On defense anyway. Offensively, he's a bit questionable, but I think he can develop this aspect of his game. Raja Bell is an expiring contract for next season, meaning Henderson will be able to develop under him, if needed, before pairing with Gerald Wallace as one of the better defensive tandems in the league.

13. Indiana Pacers - Jrue Holiday G (UCLA Freshman)
This is going to be a good pick for the Pacers, as they're looking for a player to shore up the point guard spot and I think Holiday would make a good pick. He plays great defense, he rebounds the ball well for his size, and he's quick enough to get to the rim and finish. He's also got the potential to move about 8 picks either way.

14. Phoenix Suns - Earl Clark SF/PF (Louisville Junior)
This pick is basically best available, and I don't have any player better left on the board. Grant Hill and Matt Barnes are both expiring contracts, leading me to believe that they could possibly look for a small forward. Clark is a combo-forward at 6'9", but he plays more like point-forward with his high basketball IQ. Not much of a shooter, but he's pretty well-rounded otherwise.

15. Detroit Pistons - Terrence Williams SG/SF (Louisville Senior)
Williams can do pretty much everything, but never really did it consistently at Louisville. He plays exceptional defense, he's strong, and he's one of the better athletes in this draft. His weaknesses come mainly from his basketball IQ, as he just doesn't seem to understand how to score on the offensive end. Regardless, his attitude seems to fit with Detroit.

16. Chicago Bulls - DeJuan Blair PF (Pittsburgh Sophomore)

The Bulls could use a horse at the power forward. Obviously, Tyrus Thomas isn't that horse, as shown by his random acts of playing time in the playoffs. Blair would be the perfect compliment to the Bulls current options down low. Though I'm a Bulls fan, I don't like Blair. Regardless, I wouldn't be happy if he passed this spot.

17. Philadelphia 76ers - Stephen Curry PG/SG (Davidson Junior)
I'm not a fan of Curry. He was great in college, but I don't think he'll be great in the NBA. I do think he'd be a stud in Philadelphia however. Match him with Andre Iguodala and his pseudo-point forward role, and boom tho. Amazing will happen.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (from Heat) - Jeff Teague PG (Wake Forest Sophomore)
Teague would have been a lottery pick earlier in the year - the Wolves are getting a steal at 18 as a replacement for Bassy Telfair. Teague is very athletic and fun to watch - scorer first, but learning to be a distributor. Already, he's the best point guard on the Wolves.

19. Atlanta Hawks - B.J. Mullens C (Ohio State Freshman)
Mullens is a long way way from contributing in the NBA. He is big and young though, and can develop if he puts in work. Good hands, soft touch, and reasonably athletic raw big men have went much higher than this in previous drafts. Does that mean this will work out? Almost certainly not. Zaza's expiring this season though, and they don't have another center on the roster, so this might not be a bad pick (it will, but have hope).

20. Utah Jazz - Tyler Hansbrough PF (UNC Senior)
Hansbrough, if nothing else, is tough. The Jazz will more than likely have a need at the four after Millsap or Boozer walks. Why not bring in Hansbrough, who nobody likes, but is tough and has heart. Just seems like a Jerry Sloan guy.

21. New Orleans Hornets - Chase Budinger SF (Arizona Junior)
Even though Budinger's stock has fallen ever since winning the McDonald's dunk contest, he wouldn't be a terrible pick here. He's athletic and should someday be able to put it all together. The Hornets don't really have any depth at the wings and Budinger is a wing. Makes sense to me!

22. Dallas Mavericks - Eric Maynor PG (VCU Senior)
Basically, Dallas is not going to find a starter in this draft. They just won't. With Kidd expiring though, they should be looking for a point guard, so why not take the best available. He's very quick, sees the floor well and is developing his jump shot (though it's not as bad as that sounds). He's a guy that lives for clutch situations - and does well when he gets into them. My only hope would be that they don't trade him right before he breaks out like they did Devin Harris.

23. Sacramento Kings (From Rockets) - Austin Daye F (Gonzaga Freshman)

Daye could easily be a lottery pick because of his size and skill set as a 6'10" wing, but he could also be the next Jared Jeffries. I don't think he is ready yet for the NBA and needs to add some weight and another year of seasoning at Gonzaga. If he stays in though, somebody will take a flyer on him, and probably higher than this. The Kings may as well shoot for the stars. What's the worse that could happen? Have the worst record in the NBA and end up with the fourth best draft pick? Oops. Too soon, perhaps.

24. Portland Trailblazers - Nick Calathes G (Florida Sophomore)
With the Trailblazers in need of a point guard (It seems Bayless isn't the pure point of the future), I decided to go with Calathes. At this point in the draft, it'd make sense to take a gamble on a 6'5" guard with good court vision and a sweet stroke. He can't play defense with the best of them, but Portland has enough players behind him that should be able to help him out.

25. Oklahoma City Thunder (From Spurs)- Darren Collison PG (UCLA Senior)

Collison is a winner and stayed in school all four years - two qualities that are extremely compelling, but come draft time, nobody seems to dig this. I do. While it'll make for a very slight backcourt in OKC, it'll also make for an exciting backcourt, pairing Collison with his former teammate at UCLA, Russell Westbrook. What's the worst that could happen?

26. Chicago Bulls (From Nuggets) - Wayne Ellington G (UNC Junior)
The Bulls seem to be losing Ben Gordon this season - an unconcious shooter. He will be semi-replaceable though. Ellington can shoot the basketball for a living. He's got ice in his veins. I'm not all that high on Ellington, but he seems like he'd fit well in Chicago.

27. Memphis Grizzlies (From Magic) - Toney Douglas G (Florida State Senior)

The Grizzlies were hoping to get a point guard that can shoot with their first pick, but I don't think they'll be disappointed with Griffin. In Douglas, they're getting a combo-guard that can shoot, and score, and do everything a 23 year-old combo-guard should be able to do. He was a stud for Florida State and, in the right situation, he'll be a solid NBA player as well.

28. Minnesota Timberwolves (From Celtics) - Omri Casspi SF/PF (Maccabi Tel-Aviv)
Simply put, Minnesota probably won't bring all three picks in this season. Casspi could shore up the forward spot next season once they decide that Brewer and Gomes just aren't great options. I know this isn't a sexy pick, but I don't think it's a bad pick.

29. Los Angeles Lakers - Sam Young SF (Pittsburgh Senior)
Call me crazy, but I like Sam Young. He's old (24), but he's great on defense. He also plays the small forward. This comes into play because LA's other small forwards, Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza, are finishing out their contract when the playoffs end. It's doubtful the Lakers will be able to afford both, so a little insurance wouldn't hurt.

30. Cleveland Cavaliers - Patrick Mills PG (St. Mary's Sophomore)
Mills is quick and knows how to play basketball. Just seems like the LeBron's would get lucky with a pick like this. Mills will probably be one of the better players in this draft that's slept on, yet his stock has been falling since the NIT's. Basically, why not?

Coach Hamilton: An In-Depth Analysis of Recruiting and Player Development

TrueCubbie — Tue, 24 Mar 2009 02:31:15 -0000

Photo from Tallahassee Democrat

Since Leonard Hamilton's arrival in 2002, the Florida State Seminoles have seen an influx of talent that was never expected at a school whose basketball program lurks in the shadows of its football team.

Today, we take a closer look at Coach Hamilton as well his recruiting history and player development during his tenure at Florida State.

Entering the season, there were a lot of questions surrounding Leonard Hamilton and his future at Florida State. Many wondered how long could he continue to rely on recruiting some of the best talent in the country without any tangible results on the national level? In college basketball, success is determined by wins and losses, conference championships and NCAA tournament appearances. With the help of Toney Douglas, Leonard Hamilton led his team to a 10-6 record in the ACC Tournament, a meeting with Duke in the ACC Championship and Florida States' first NCAA Tournament bid in 11 year. With that resume, Coach Hamilton deservedly earned the ACC Coach of the Year Award.

Before getting into the details of Hamilton's career and his recruiting history, we must consider the definition of a good coach. Is it winning percentage? Is it post-season appearances? Is it recruiting? It is talent development? I found this list of things to consider when evaluating a college coach at LFBall's Blog:

- Does The Coach follow NCAA guidelines and directives?
- Does The Coach follow University guidelines and directives?
- Does The Coach run a clean above board program?
- Does The Coach graduate his players?
- Does The Coach manage his staff well and provide good leadership?
- Does The Coach Manage his players well?
- Does The Coach communicate well with his players?
- Is The Coach a good representative of the university?
- Can The Coach actually Coach on game days?
- Does The Coach develop his talent?
- Does The Coach understand fair discipline?
- Does The Coach treat All The Players fairly?
- Does The Coach allow outsiders to have influence on his program?
- Does The Coach win games he is supposed to win based on budgets, and talent?
- Does The Team Compete Every game?
- Does The Coach exhibit the ability to coach, think fast on his feet, adapt,
and lead?
- Does The Coach have the ability to position the team to make yearly post season tournament runs?

As he points out on his blog, this is not an exhaustive list but certainly a variety of interesting points to consider. We all have different coaching expectations and definitions of good coaches. However, keep in mind that we only get to see a sliver of what coaches actually do on a daily basis. We get to see the poor substitution, the reluctance to call a time out, the poor play calling and we experience the win or loss. Compared to practice time, preparation time, recruiting time and administration time, game time is nothing. We know that Hamilton recruits well. We know that his players like playing for him. We know that he inspires his teams to play defense, which is an incredibly arduous challenge.

Hamilton started at Florida State in the 2002-2003 season, leading the Noles to a 14-15 mark that year. Previously, Hamilton coached at Oklahoma St from 1986 to 1990, going 56-63, and at Miami from 1990-2000, going 144-147. He also had a short tenure in the NBA coaching for the Washington Wizards. In his overall career, he is 328-303. His winning percentage has increased with each team. His worst year, by far was the 1991-1992 Miami team that went 8-24. His best year was the 1998-99 team when he led the Hurricanes to a 23-7 record and a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, losing in the second round to Purdue. During his 21 year tenure, he has made it to the NCAA tournament 3 times and produced 7 NBA draft picks.

Let's take a look at each recruiting class under Coach Hamilton. I will discuss each class here and then comment on specific examples of player development under Hamilton at the end.

Signing Class of 2002

Al Thornton
Benson Callier

Before Coach Hamilton every coached a game at the Tucker Center, he started on his recruiting career off with a bang. Or did he? Al Thornton was a 6'7 forward out of Perry High School in Perry, Georgia. His RSCI ranking was 100+. Included in that recruiting class were Amare Stoudemire, Carmello Anthony, Raymond Anthony and Chris Bosh to name a few. Al wasn't even ranked at his position by Scout.com and had a 3-star rating. Thornton was the MVP of the Georgia-Tennessee All-Star game and was Hamilton's first recuit. There wasn't a lot of hype to Thornton entering college. Benson Callier was a 6'5 shooting guard out of Grove City, PA who averaged 18 points per game his senior year. He was first team All-State and was MVP of the PA-OH All Star game. Callier only played two years for the Seminoles before transferring to, believe it or not, Western Kentucky. Benson's Blog is here if you're interested. He played in a total of 20 games with the Noles and had limited minutes. More on Al later...One out of two in your first year before you even start coaching ain't bad.

Signing Class of 2003

Alexander Johnson
Von Wafer
Diego Romero
Antonio Griffin

After finishing 14-15 the season before and 4-12 in conference play, Coach Hamilton was able to land a very strong class that included 1 5 star player (Von Wafer) and 2 4-star players (Johnson and Romero). Griffin and Romero were bother Junior College transfers. Von Wafer, a 6'4 guard, out of Heritage Christian Academy in Cleveland, TX led the Noles to have the Number one recruiting class in 2003. He signed before the college basketball season was barely under way and had received offers from the likes of Indiana, LSU, Maryland and Texas to name a few. This was said about the number 1 recruiting ranking at Scout.com: "1. Florida State: It’s pretty remarkable when you think about it. Instead of Bobby Bowden landing top billing in Tallahassee it’s Leonard Hamilton making waves." RSCI had us rated as the 10th best class and stated that Hamilton had picked up two of the highest rated recruits in FSU history (Wafer and Johnson). That high school class included LeBron James, Luol Deng, Shannon Brown, Chris Paul, Charlie Villanueva and Kendrick Perkins. Wafer averaged over 30 points per game for his AAU team and was named to the McDonalds All-American Team. Wafer played for two years before being drafted at the 9th pick in the second round of the 2005 Draft by the LA Lakers. Alexander Johnson was a 6'10 4-star recruit out of North Bridgton, ME. Yes...Maine, though he was originally from Georgia. Johnson played in 33 games that year and started 16 for the Noles and averaged 9.5 points per game and 4.2 rebounds. He played 3 years for the Noles and averaged 13.2 points his Junior year. He was drafted in the 2006 draft by the Indiana Pacers. Diego Romero, despite being a highly regarded recruit, orginally from Argentina, only played 2 years for the Noles after transfering from Lon Morris Junior college. Antonio Griffin orginally signed with the Noles in 2003 but did not enroll due to academic reasons, he played at Scottsdale Community College for one year before returning to the Noles. He only played one year with the Noles.

Signing Class of 2004

Ralph Mims
Jerome Habel
Jason Rich
Isaiah Swann
Antonio Griffin

In the 2003-04 season, the Noles went 19-14 and only 6-10 in conference play, Hamilton was able to pull in solid class, with Jason Rich being the front runner. Jason was the 7th ranked player by Scouts.com and was a 6'3 Guard from Dr. Phillips HS in Orlando. Rich selected FSU over offers from Florida, GTech, Indiana, Kentucky and USC. Rich was ranked 27th overall by the RSCI in a class that included Dwight Howard, Shaun Livinston, Al Jefferson, Rudy Gay, Glen Davis, LaMarcus Aldridge and many others. Rich played all 4 years at Florida State, averaging only 5.4 points his freshman year to averaging 14.5 points per game in 34 minutes as a senior. Isaiah Swan was also one of the top recruits of the class. Swann was a 6'1 guard out of Rockville, MD and was ranked 40th overall in the RSCI. Swann also played 4 years at FSU. He averaged 5.2ppg his freshman year and average 11.8 his senior year, starting 21 games on a team that included Jason Rich and Toney Douglas. Jerome Habel never played for the Noles. Ralph Mim a 6'3 guard out of Brunswick, Maine was another 4 year player for Leonard Hamilton. He started out averaging 2.8 ppg in 29 appearances as a freshman to averaging over 30 minutes per game and 11 points per game his senior year. As you can see, Mims, Swann and Rich all significantly improved under Hamilton and all played 4 years for the Noles. The Noles received honorable mention for the recruiting class from the folks at RSCI.

Signing Class of 2005

Uche Echefu
Toney Douglas
Casaan Breeden
Ryan Reid
Jerel Allen

Ah, familiar names. During the 2004-05 season, the Noles went 12-19 and 4-12 in conference play. Clearly, this has turned out to be an excellent recruiting class for Hamilton. We all know and love Toney. Toney technicaly was in the Class of 2004, but he played his freshman year at Auburn then transferred to FSU, sitting out the 2005-2006 season, and that's why I include him here. Toney was the 100th player in the RSCI that year. At his first season at Auburn, he played in 31 games and averaged 35.6 minutes per game scoring 16.9 points per game. More on Toney later. Uche, until the end of the year, demonstrated that he had matured into an excellent power forward. Uche was a 4 star recruit out of Rockville, Maryland and selected FSU over Kentucky, Maryland and North Carolina. See this piece to learn more about Uche. Ryan "The Big Ticket" Reid was a 4 star player coming out of high school and helped is AAU Team win a national title. He selected the Noles over Florida, Miami, Pittsburgh and South Florida. Ryan was considered one of the top players in the state of Florida while at Lauderdale Lakes. He entered FSU at 215 lbs he is now up to 325 and has seen a marginal improvement in his stats. Granted, he is getting less playing time this year than he did during his sophomore season. Casaan Breeden was a three start recruit and played only two season with the Noles averaging less that 10 minutes per game in 56 game. He now plays for the College of Charleston. Jerel Allen was a JUCO transfer from Mott Community College. He played two seasons with the Noles, playing 65 games and averaging 4.2 points per game.

Signing Class of 2006

Josue Soto
Aaron Holmes

During the 2005-2006 season, the Noles captured 20 wins and went 9-7 in the ACC led by Al Thornton and his 16 points per game. So only two recruits after a great season? Playing time was going to be a premium. Al Thornton was heading into his senior year and many of the players mentioned above were getting significant minutes. There was little room for a Freshman to make any impact. Josue Soto was a 5'11 guard out of Jacksonville, FL who was a three star recruit. He was in the rivals top 150 that year and selected FSU over Illinois, Indiana and Wake Forest. He only played in 13 games his freshman year for a total of 54 minutes and a total of 11 shots. He quickly transferred to FIU. Aaron Holmes was considered a 3-4 star recruit that was recruited by a huge number of schools, but Stan Jones convinced him to commit to FSU. Holmes was a 6'5 shooting guard out of St. Petersburg, FL. Aaron is now with the USF Bulls. So this was a bust year for Hamilton. He was only able to attract two recruits and did not retain either of them. No points for recruiting nor development in this one.

Signing Class of 2007

Solomon Alabi
Jordan DeMercy
Julian Vaughn
Chris Blake

In the 2006-07 season, the Noles went 22-13 and 7-9 in the ACC. Al Thornton had an incredible season averaging 19.7 points per game, 7.2 rebounds and had 40 blocks on the year. He was later drafted by the Clippers as the 14th pick in the NBA draft. Alabi was a 5 star recruit. Demercy, Vaughn and Blake were all three star recruits. We all know what Solomon is developing into: an elite center who will play in the NBA. He has a ways to go but he is clearly on the right trejectory. Vaughn, out of the famous Oak Hill Academy, initially signed with the Noles and is now a member of the Georgetown Hoyas. He was a rivals top 150 player and the 35th best Power Forward. Chris Blake was a 6'4 Guard out of Mobile, Alabama and as far as I can tell in a quick search never played for the Noles. Two of 4 ain't bad and look what you have in Alabi. Demercy had a world of athletic talent and still has time to develop. It will be interesting to see what rotation he and Singleton will have.

Signing Class of 2008

Derwin Kitchen
Chris Singleton
Pierre Jordan
Deividas Dulkys
Xavier Gibson
Luke Loucks

Well...these are the guys you have grown to know and love. Clearly one of the top recruiting classes in the country, Hamilton was able to recruit Singleton a 5-star McDonald's All American, 4 other 4-star players and Pierre Jordan. How this class will develop obviously has yet to be seen. But, we know that Singleton certainly has the talent to be a great player. Dulkys can shoot the long ball in the right offensive scheme. Gibson is secretly developing into an outstanding big man. Loucks is an effective ball-handler. Kitchen was one of the best JUCO players before he transferred. This is a talented team.

Class of 2009

Michael Snaer
Terrence Shannon

Signing Snaer was huge...and it occurred before we went on our run through the ACC. Terrance Shannon is a 3-star Power Forward out of Georgia. He's a 6'7 190 lbs forward who selected the Noles over Xavier, Georgia, Auburn and Nebraska. Again, he signed before the season started.

Signing Class of 2010

Okaro White
Ian Miller

I only mention these two to demonstrate that Hamilton is making a serious dentin the recruiting world. Miller is a 6'0 PG out of North Carolina and is already rated a 4-star player. White is a 6'7 Forward out of Clearwater and another 4-star recruit. Both of them expressed interest in the program well before were even close to winning 10 games in the ACC.

Signing Class of 2011

Marc Brown

I only learned of this recruit today. I had no idea that we had guys signed this far out. He committed in October of 2007. Marc is a 6'4 185 lbs guard out of Atlanta, GA. I don't know much about him, but he won't be here for a while.

I hope this gives you some sense of Hamilton's recruiting success. He has pulled in players from all over the country and at talent levels that wouldn't be predicted by Florida State's success or lack there of.

What has Hamilton done in terms of player development? He took Al Thornton from a relatively quiet player in the recruiting world to an All-ACC Player, 3rd Team All-American and a Lottery Pick in the NBA draft. Here are some graphs to demonstrate Al's development under Leonard:

College Basketball Stats by StatSheet.com

(If' those charts are messed up let me know. They are working on one of my browsers and not the other. If they aren't working I'll get in touch with the folks at Statsheet)

What about Von Wafer? Ralph Mims? Jason Rich? Toney Douglas?

NCAA Basketball Stats

Clearly,these are some of the bigger names in the recent history of Florida State. But, look carefully at how these guys were rated coming out of high school. Yes, Von Wafer was a McDonald's All American...Al Thornton was not. With the exception of 2006, Hamilton has been able to recruit and retain some outstanding players. The two graphs above are only a small window into proving that Hamilton has been able to develop talent. I think that it is more than these players simply getting better on their own. Plus, Hamilton gets them to play defense like no other. Playing defense is not the glamorous part of basketball. You must be doing something right to get these kids to buy into a defensive system. He has also sent 4 players to the NBA: Thornton, Wafer, Johnson and Pickett (didn't recruit him but coached his final years)

So what are your thoughts on Hamilton? Is he simply a recruiter? Do these results surprise you or do you need more data? Clearly, our retention of players is not 100%, nor is it 100% anywhere else in the country...but we're not a basketball school...yet. I think the 2006 class was a fluke due to the log jam of players that Hamilton had recruited in the prior year. Why go to a lesser known basketball school if you're not going to play?

Now, do I question some of Hamilton's in game decisions and adjustments? Yes. But I have the luxury of watching the games from my couch with a DVR. Does that mean he's a bad coach? No. It might mean he needs to work on his in game decision making. Do I totally love the offense we run? No. But that could easily be solved with an assistant coach. However, without Hamilton, I don't think we would be where we are today. We already have the makings of an excellent team for the next few years, let's see what Coach Hamilton is able to do with it. If you look at the intangibles of coaching, Hamilton is doing all the right things. Based on recruiting and player development, I think Coach Hamilton is doing just fine and I look forward to what other surprises he has for us in this year's recruiting class.

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