SB Nation - Jeff Jordan

Illini win over Vanderbilt 79-68, and look good doing it.

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:06:02 -0000

More photos » by Darrell Hoemann - AP

Well, thats two top 25 opponents and two wins to show for it, it almost makes up for the two bad losses. Not quite yet perhaps, but it makes a statement to the national media that the Illini are still a factor in this conference.

The game started right for the Illini from the word go, as the Illini jumped out to a 9-0 lead, with the defense forcing Vandy to take bad shots and the offense making Vandy's zone look useless. Mike Tisdale being able to step out and shoot is a weapon that confuses and frustrates a lot of defenses, and it was key to the Illini's early scoring success.

On defense except for a few minor 3 minute lapses, the Illini have played one of their more solid games in that end. Ogilvy looked like he was the most effective player for the 'dores on the offensive end, but their shooters really never woke up like we had worried they would.

I would also like to highlight how damn good Jeff Jordan played tonight, making some very clutch shots, including a long 3 as the shot clock ran out. All the guards had a fine day against the Vandy defense, which seemed like as long as it wasn't Mike Davis taking the shot, they were willing to take their chances.

Mike Davis seemed to play the decoy all night, having very few points but a few assists and blocks to show for his minutes. If the other team wants to take Davis out of the game, clearly they can, but its going to leave Demetri McCamey, (23pts) D.J. Richardson (16 pts) and Tisdale (14 pts) all open to take their shots at will, that is fine by me.

The defense was much more I am sure to Bruce's liking tonight, running almost all man again (as always) and although it did worry me a bit when I saw Brandon Paul having to run off of a screen to pick his an back up. The freshmen will get better in straight man to man D, but it will take time and practice. Exhibit A is Demetri McCamey who was pretty much a defensive liability his freshman year but has become one of the more reliable defensive players on the team.

Speaking of Demetri he once again had one or two too many turnovers (6) but still is clearly the best option at running the offense because he is calmer cooler and more collected than any of the other options. And as our good friend the Donut King has pointed out, many of tonight's turnovers were TO's of aggression, which is in a sense a good thing, but are still in the end turnovers. That aggression of course comes along with his 23 points, so I will take it as an overall push.

Next game is Saturday at noon as the Illini host Western Michigan, then its winter break and the Illini go on the road for their neutral site games.

Illini soundly defeat Presbyterian, led by second half defense.

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 02:52:56 -0000

More photos » by STEPHEN HAAS - AP

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Not much can be learned from this game I would say, other than team defense will not be a concept that will be lost in the shuffle this year. There was no real stand out individual performance like Brandon Paul has had the two previous games, D.J. Richardson to his credit did score 15 to lead the Illini, but scoring was overall very balanced Saturday night. Mike Davis had another solid game but fell one rebound short of a double-double. Alex Legion came out with his first real scoring night of the year, scoring 11 points fueled by his 3-point shooting. But no single player really stood out to me as taking the game over.

The real story of this game was the way in which the team played defense. We already knew that D.J. wanted to become the defensive stopper to replace Chester this year, but aside from stopping one single player in one on one, the overall team defense has not really been up to Bruce's expectations.

In the second half of Saturday night's game, I would have to say it was. The team jumped out onto a 25 to 4 run to start the second half and did not really look back. The run was marked by efficient and solid offense yes, but also by a team wide defense that suffocated the Blue Hose and never let them move the ball. The return of Jeff Jordan, who has long been known as a very tough defensive player surely did not hurt, and his increased minutes due to Demetri McCamey's early foul trouble allowed Bruce to really see how Jeff handled the duties of PG.

While the offense was not as dazzling as when Demetri McCamey was running the show, it did run well enough. Jordan looked especially good on defense once again and showed why there will always be minutes available for the walk-on. The guard rotation relied mostly on McCamey for ball handling duties, and by the looks of it, D.J. will have to wait a while to really take over as the primary backup again.

Final - 11.21.2009	1	2	Total
Presbyterian Blue Hose	28	20	48
Illinois Fighting Illini	43	51	94

Complete Coverage >

Bruce looked to be experimenting with all sorts of different line up in the second half, presumably to see how well the functioned as an offense. At one point we even saw Jeff Jordan at 1, Bill Cole at 2, Dominique Keller at 3, Tyler Griffey at 4 and Richard Semrau at 5. In all of this we saw more of every primary back up than we have seen all season. Even Stan Simpson and Bubba Chisholm were able to get in on the action near the end. I know Bertrand is still out with injury, and he is expected to return sooner or later but I am wondering if Bruce is starting to contemplate a Red Shirt.

Back to the defense though, the Illini would ultimately hold the Blue Hose to only 20 second half points, and that may be the best news yet for an Illini fan this year. After the NIU victory where the team had neglected to really put the Huskies down for good, there were already rumblings about this team not being as defensively sound as last years and that it looked like we were going to have to rely on offense alone to really win games. (After two games, I know, but people read too much into everything these days) A no doubt about it defensive win should hopefully put these fears to rest for the time being at least. Once Big Ten teams like MSU and Purdue come to town of course, the Illini will need every bit of offense and defense they have to stay in the game.

Presbyterian at Illini Preview: where I only pay attention to the Illini.

Joe Kutsunis — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 18:26:46 -0000

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I know that most game previews usually feature at least an attempt at lip service towards the opponent. But frankly today, I do not know one thing about Presbyterian, nor do I wish to spend the time looking up who the skilled players are on their team, or what offense or defense they run. If this were say Syracuse, I would do that, but I am being honest here when I say that I don't imagine it would matter one bit what offense the Blue Hose run, I do not think they will win this game. But that's the way these games go. There is still plenty to say about the Illini however.

One thing I am very interested in is going to be how the return of eligibility for Jeff Jordan is going to affect the guard rotation. When he is in the game I assume he is going to be the primary ball handler, and will be used mostly to spell Demetri. I assume this means the instances where D.J. Richardson is in charge on the floor. Bruce has mentioned that DJ has lost some his confidence in ball handling, so I wonder if Bruce is going to have him play through it or take the pressure off by moving the duties to Jeff.

Another question for me would be whether or not Mike Tisdale breaks out this game like we assumed he would before now. He needs to get the ball down low, and when he does he needs to make the most of it, and more than anything get some more rebounds. With Davis seemingly already in mid season form, we need Tis to get caught up, especially before next week's Las Vegas Invitational.

And lastly, can Brandon Paul keep this up? Two straight 20 point games are nice, but we saw in the second half against NIU that he can go cold too. I am of the opinion, that if he can keep this up, the Illini will be scary this year. With a scoring threat like Paul, the team will have a chance against just about anyone. If the team can play the tough team defense that we did last year, and combine it with the scoring with this year, watch out. Even in the tough Big Ten we can be a real force.

Doesn't it feel good to be talking about basketball again? Game time is 7pm on Saturday and can be seen on the Big Ten Network

The Lazy Blogger's Illini basketball and football preview

Joe Kutsunis — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:05:33 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Everything points to Juice sitting out the Northwestern game on Saturday with the high ankle sprain. Look for RS Freshman Jacob Charest to start in his place. (Minneapolis. AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

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Folks, I am a busy man, I've got alot going on in my life right now. I wont bother you with specifics, but suffice to say, looking at my computer today with the prospect of writing two game previews is much less appealing than it sounds. So I am going to take the lazy man's shortcut here and just combine the two into an unrepentant shortcut of a post.

First the football team. Lucky for me the Big Ten Network (please send me money) replays all of the football games over the course of the week, so I was able to reacquaint myself with the supreme victory over Minnesota from Saturday. Upon a second viewing, with the knowledge of how the game ultimately ended, I have had to reassess the Illini play overall. Adam Weber basically handed the Illini the game in the first half. He stayed in the pocket waaaay too long and took some very dumb sacks as well as throw passes so inaccurate that somewhere Eric Decker is weeping. He wasw much more on his game in the second half, and as a result the Illini defense looked no where near as good as earlier in the game. Basically what I am saying is, the defense is going to have to play better this week if we want to beat Northwestern. Other than Terry Hawthorne that is. That guy is all right.

On the other hand I really like the way Jacob Charest is throwing the ball lately he is hitting his receivers right in the numbers, and provided those receivers don't drop the passes again this week, the offense will move the ball. The real kudos must go to the offensive line who are opening holes for the backs and giving both Juice and Charest a lot more time to work with. You don't have a successful offense without a successful offensive line.

So as long as all that good stuff I just said keeps happening, the Illini should roll. 11am Saturday kickoff.

Now for the basketball team.

Its the big opening game of the real season, and Bruce has suggested he will go with the same starting lineup for last week's exhibition finale. Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis, Brandon Paul, D.J. Richardson and Demetri McCamey. No Jeff Jordan for his suspension, so the primary guard sub is going to be Legion, and like the exhibition, Dominique will get alot of action at the 3. Given their loss in OT to D3 Illinois College, SIUE should not pose a legitimate threat to the Illini, but I do want to see some all around better play. The games do count now, so I hope we will see some real dominance on the floor by Mike Davis. Everyone is hoping he will make another big jump this year, and there is no time like the present

Tip Off is tonight at 7.
Once again I will be running an open thread for both games. Please come keep me company.

The Big Blue Daily Mail -- Early Signing Period Edition

Truzenzuzex — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 20:00:46 -0000

by Ed Reinke - AP

Top recruits, like John Wall, are increasingly waiting until the late period before signing with a school.

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Today, the Big Blue Daily Mail asks the question -- is the early signing period a good thing, especially in light of the new restrictions on National Letters of Intent that forbid extra conditions being attached to the letter, a la addendums allowing recruits to get out of their commitment in the event of a coaching change?

Most coaches are in favor of course, and according to this article by ESPN's Andy Katz, some coaches think the new restrictions are no problem:

"If there is a coaching change, they can get out of it,'' Ohio State's Thad Matta said. "They always do anyway.

I think that's right. Almost no school is willing to risk the negative recruiting consequences of not letting a recruit out of his NLI in the event of a coaching change. And it's fairly obvious why coaches like the early signing period:

"I don't want to be on planes flying all over the place as the head coach during the season,'' Self said. "You want November recruiting to be done so you can have a leg up on the next year during the year.''

But it seems like the top recruits are not sold on the benefits of signing early, and aren't really interested in freeing up mercurial coaches to just coach:

"The top guys are realizing that they have the leverage to wait," said Rivals.com recruiting analyst Jerry Meyer. "And the guys who are not the top guys know that more opportunities can open up for them later. So, if you don't feel confident in where you stand, if you're not ready, it only makes sense to wait with all the coaching changes that occur and the springtime roster changes that occur."

I don't think you can blame these guys for feeling this way, and I think waiting is smart from the standpoint of a top recruit. For the other guys, I think the early signing period makes much more sense, because it prevents them from being edged out of a scholarship by a really good recruit suddenly becoming available with no scholarships left.

The news follows the jump.

20 points about the college basketball season | Philadelphia Inquirer | 11/11/2009
Dribble-drive originator says it's all about attacking | KentuckySports.com
"Cal did it a little disservice," Vance Walberg said in a telephone interview Tuesday. "Everybody thinks it's a dribble-dribble-dribble offense. That's not what it is. It's an attacking offense."

I don't think that. I suppose the name is a little deceptive, but doesn't "dribble-drive" imply an attack?
UK Football Fan: Pundits' UK Bowl Projections
Kentucky Sports Radio " Blog Archive " Andy Katz puts together the worst conference ranking list ever
I agree. This is not a proud effort by Katz.
ESPN Columnist Forde diagnosed with "romantic abnormality" " The Adams Group
Clinical researchers and sex doctors have completed a two-year examination of ESPN.com senior writer Pat Forde and concluded that he has a bizarre "romantic abnormality" the likes of which no other human has ever been diagnosed with.

Read, and don't be drinking anything while doing so. Fair warning.
Tom Leach has lots of stuff on his blog today.
Morehead state preview podcast, Vandy radio voice podcast, and lots more.
Tobias Harris Journal: It's Crunch Time
Tobias Harris, the #5 recruit on the Rivals150 List for 2010, is now 12 days away from announcing his college choice. This is the Tobias Harris Journal, an all access feature from AllKYHoops.com that intends to illustrate the high-major recruiting process through the eyes of the recruit.
Karen Sypher Evicted from Home
The woman accused in a plot to extort $10 million from Rick Pitino was forced to move from her home Tuesday.

Weirder and weirder.
I Can See (the Suspensions) Clearly Now - Arkansas Expats
Both Courtney Fortson and Stefan Welsh have been suspended indefinitely. Welsh we knew about, but the news on Fortson is at least somewhat surprising. It was known that he would face some type of suspension after his infamous tweet, but Pelphrey's comments make it sound like additional factors are at work as well.

Double uh oh.
Duke Basketball is Geigh (Not That There’s Anything Wrong with That)
Heh.
Forde Minutes: A look back and a look forward - ESPN
Louisville-Kentucky (23). When: Jan. 2, in Lexington. Why: The feud is back to molten temperature with Calipari's arrival at UK. He and Pitino have had some memorable battles over the years, and should go at one another with maximum ferocity now that they're just 75 miles apart.
Goin' Back To Indiana
The only team that can challenge Kansas for the title, at least in terms of talent, is the Kentucky Wildcats. New coach John Calipari has the country's best recruiting haul, led by next June's no. 1 pick in the NBA draft, John Wall.
College basketball is back ... with a whimper - Seth Davis - SI.com
• I wonder if Arizona fans realize just how close they were to getting John Calipari as their coach. If the Kentucky job hadn't opened, I'd say there was about a 75 percent chance Cal was going to end up in Tucson. That's why Arizona's coaching search looked so disorganized at the end. They thought they had their man.

Like most of Seth Davis' assertions, I find this one unpersuasive.
Jeff Jordan Suspended Two Games For Offseason Violation - SB Nation
UK women have fun in exhibition rout | KentuckySports.com
McGinnis Named SEC Swimmer of the Week - KENTUCKY OFFICIAL ATHLETIC SITE
" Matt Pilgrim stars in first Oklahoma State exhibition John Clay’s Sidelines
Great for Matt.
" Rich Brooks next-to-last in SEC coaching salaries John Clay’s Sidelines
Well, we knew this.
You're On Your Own. - Maize n Brew
These past three years, barring some fleeting bright spots, have been unrelentingly painful for anybody who follows Michigan football with any kind of passion. For the first time in my life, I can honestly say that I look forward to watching the NFL on Sundays. I can't wait for basketball season to start. When was the last time you heard that from a Michigan fan?

A Michigan fan's lament. As a Kentucky fan who has just suffered through four long years of Hell, and who is still recovering from the burn scars, I am totally sympathetic.
5 Razorback Basketball Players Suspended - Razorbacks News Story - KHBS NW Arkansas
University of Arkansas head basketball coach John Pelphrey suspended five of his players Tuesday, with suspensions ranging from two games to indefinitely.

Uh oh...
#4 Kentucky Wildcats - Storming The Floor
Nice job by Storming the Floor. Interesting that the author has the same name as a member on A Sea of Blue. Could they be one and the same?

I even get quoted!
Dick Vitale defends Calipari
Until someone comes to me and proves without a doubt that Calipari is involved in those shenanigans and is involved … I can’t hold them guilty. If you’re anti-Calipari, you’re going to use that to bury him. If you’re a guy who just looks at what’s right, and see what he’s done, and about the graduation - that’s another thing he gets a bum rap for … his kids have graduated; he’s got a terrific graduation rate - but yet nobody wants to hear that.

Very impressive and well-executed defense by Dick Vitale, despite attempts by the interviewer to lead him to a different conclusion. Via Bluegrass State Basketball.
Hartline Returns to Practice
"Hartline did some good things, and then a couple of times looked like he had a little rust on him," Brooks said. "Now, the question is how that knee will respond in the next 24 hours. We’ll have to see how that goes. He moved around well and executed the whole offense."

I'd be surprised if he is ready for much action at Vanderbilt.
More High School Sports Titles Decided By Technicalities - gymnastics - Deadspin
A Kansas gymnastics team was docked one point at the state championship meet—enough to drop them from first to third in the final standings—because their coach made an "illegal inquiry." She asked was the score was.

Wow.
Let the Cal-i-parti begin! | Vaught's Views
Let the Cal-i-parti start.

Why not?

The Linking Illini can't compensate for lack of sun, cause the summer's all gone

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:39:38 -0000

Ahh signing day! Mid-November! When the weather gets alot less autumnal and nice and alot more rainy and miserable. Today we talk about Basketball recruiting, and such and a little bit of drama (OMG) with the local media and coaching staff.

The music for today: The Kinks, a band from an era that, as this video will show, rock singers could be ugly as sin and still be considered sex gods.
ONWARD AND UPWARD WITH THE LINKS!

It’s been three years to this day - pjstar.com
Hey its college basketball signing day! The day when you could field a schooner in the America's cup propelled purely by the exhales of thousands of relieved Coaches. (That was a yachting reference, because this is a classy ass website.) While I wont go into why the actual act of signing a letter of intent is an important aspect of the recruiting process (See: Eric Gordan) I will use it as an excuse to point out how loaded of a class we have coming in next year. A class headlined, of course, by Jereme Richmond, the recruit that arguably turned the whole recruiting drought around. He committed even before any of the freshmen that are on campus right now. Think about it.
Tate: I stand by my letter - IlliniHQ.com
Loren Tate, a man who has no time to coddle or kid glove anybody, takes time to defend a recent letter to Ron Zook, or rather a letter published in the News Gazette that assessed the Ron Zook era rather negatively. It has caused a stir among the adults in town, so I figured it was worth my comment here. A word if warning to Ron Zook, Loren Tate has been writing about Illini football since the min 60's and this is his 7th coach in that time. He is like Fidel Castro, he will outlive us all and speculate on our replacements.
Don’t misjudge importance of Jordan’s return to Fighting Illini | The Daily Illini
I am comfortable with Jeff getting lots of playing time, even with a crowded guard lineup. He can pass the ball very well and could be the defensive stopper in the mode of Chester Frazier that Bruce is desperately looking for. He is going to have to work through the two game suspension first obviously, but more importantly he is going to have to get back to full conditioning, because the freshmen have already shown that they love to run and push the ball up court quickly, and taking the summer off doesn't really get you ready for an up and down the court game. I won't criticize too loudly though, the blogger/student lifestyle and diet has left me a doughy mass of a human. Ironic that its mostly out of shape non-athletes like me that spend so much time obsessing over other people playing sports. I think I need to get out more.

Jeff Jordan leaving team for academics. A surprising player continues to surprise.

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 23:08:47 -0000

More photos » by Seth Perlman - AP

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Off season news, are you ever good? According to today's Sun Times heir apparent to the throne of Chester Frazier as defensive standout and passer, Jeff Jordan announced today that he would not be playing for Bruce this winter. Not to transfer to another school for more playing time or a scholarship, because both were basically his for the taking. (Well not the scholarship.) No he is leaving the team to focus more on his academics. Not because he was failing and hadn't qualified for play, but so that he can be the best student he could be while trying to be successful in something other than basketball. I am puzzled, intrigued and fascinated by this, I have to say.

Situations like Jeff's do not come around all that often. Sure lots of children of NBA players get to play in college, lots of them in Division 1. Very rarely though do they come from someone with as much name recognition as Jordan. More than a few people must have wondered why someone who could have gotten a full ride at a mid major would want to be a walk on at Illinois, where, in most years at least playing time would be hard to come by, Equally many I am sure wondered if inviting Jeff to play for the Illini was little more than a publicity stunt by Bruce to distract from problems in his program. On the one hand though, Jeff proved that he was perhaps better than his walkon status let on, earning a huge amount of time at point guard as a walk-on, and even earning a full athletic scholarship the second half of last year. On the other, maybe it is clearer why Jeff would want to come to a place like Illinois, after all, we do have a fairly impressive Academic resume (#10 public school,according to US news and world report.) And while our admissions boards might be as crooked as George Ryan and Rod Blago combined, most people seem to benefit from their time here in Champaign.

Most people are not in a position like Jeff, are there really that many students who could afford to turn down a full athletic scholarship, or have the same amount of athletic pressure? Jeff has enough money to play basketball at a Division 1 level for fun, and has decided that he wants to make a name for himself in something other than basketball. I respect that, and wish him well. In my book, he doesn't have to prove anything to anyone.

As for what this means for the basketball team, it all but guarentees that a freshman will be starting at guard next year, (with the outside chance of having 2 frosh start, depending on Legion.) Should we start asking ourselves if Bill Cole, with his 3 point range, might make a decent Legion-style guard? More importantly I hope Demetri will have improved his passing and decision making, because with out Jeff there is going to be a definite vacuum for true point guards. No matter what it means for the team, I wish JJ well in his pursuit of a degree, there is more to life than basketball, even if your name is Jordan.

Illini play best game of their season, advance to face Purdue

Joe Kutsunis — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 18:11:27 -0000

The way the Illini beat Michigan yesterday made me realize that I had underestimated this team. Without their best defensive player, the team defense of the Illini stepped up to hold Manny Harris to only 9 points, and Sims to 15. Considering that the two combined for 45 against Iowa the day before, that is no small feat. Calvin Brock, Jeff Jordan, and even Demetri McCamey all put forth probably their best defensive efforts of the season. Especially Brock, who replaced Frazier in the starting line up and was brilliant in his defense, never allowing Manny Harris to get comfortable.

Mike Davis needs to be spotlit for his performance as well, because frankly he played out of his mind. He had yet another double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds, but also had 2 blocks and 3 steals. It seems that every time we think he has hit a plateau, he jumps up another level. I would say he has more than made up for the missed free throw at the end of the Penn State. He keeps getting better and better, and I have a feeling that he will not be staying all the way to his senior year. He may not have reached his full potential yet, but he getting hot at just the right time.

I hope he stays hot, because todays game does not look any easier. As the Illini look to defeat the Boilermakers for the third time this season, something that is always very difficult. In fact the tables were turned last season, as the Illini had lost both regular season games to Purdue, only to beat them in overtime. The talent level of the Boilermakers is too high to be mandhandled by the same team three times in a season. Especially since Robbie Hummel will be back playing now. If the Illini play like they did against the Wolverines, I believe that they can beat Purdue. PU however has broken their slump as well, playing exceptionally well against Penn State last night, nearly running them out of the gym in the first half. The game plan against Purdue doesnt change, play very tough defense and be efficient on possessions. I am looking forward to see if Tisdale can pick up his game tonight against Jajuan Johnson. If our big men get the looks they were getting against Michigan last night, we should have no problem scoring. The trick will be keeping the guards from getting open looks from beyond the arc, a range that the Boilermakers, just like the Wolverines, can be lethal from. If for some reason, Chester is able to play today, it would be gravy, if not, I no longer worry about the team's defense without him. Something that definitely comforts me about next year's team as well.

Michigan vs Illinois...THE THREEMATCH

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 12 Mar 2009 22:34:56 -0000

When last these two teams met, Mike Tisdale was scoring so easily he might as well have been playing against 8 year olds. 24 points, 18 in the second half alone was what Tizzy contributed and it was easily the difference in the game.

Unfortunately, when last we saw this Illini team, they were blowing a lead to Penn State, and allowing Talor Battle to become a legend in PSU basketball history (what little there is)

Yes the Illini are riding a two game losing streak into this Big Ten tournament, and whats worse, it remains to be seen whether or not the soul of the team Chester Frazier will be able to play. Combine that with the ease that Michigan ripped Iowa to shreds today, it makes for more than a little concern about the prospects tomorrow.

Yes, I am concerned that with Deshawn Sims and Manny Harris seemingly reverting to their Duke killing level scoring, that the Illini will have trouble keeping the 3 ball from draining over and over and over like it did in Ann Arbor earlier this year.

There are however reasons to believe that the Illini will be able to beat the Wolverines again tomorrow. For one Mike Tisdale, the hero of the win over UM is coming off two of the better and most complete games of the season, granted they were both in losses, but against two very good defenders, including Goran Suton. With any luck, the Wolverines will be just as unable to stop Tis this time around.

The other notable Illini big man is nothing to sneeze at either. Despite the unclutch free throw shooting against PSU, Mike is still the best rebounder on the team and has proven to be an extremely reliable scoing threat in his own right. Though not putting up the sick numbers he was at the beginning of the season, he is still indispensable to this team's success.

With solid games from the big men, and decent shooting from Trent or DMAC to keep the defense honest, this team should be able to score on the Wolverines. One thing that does worry me though, is how the Illini will play defensively. Yes, this team is a strong defensive unit as a whole, but the key to that unit is Chester, and if he is absent tomorrow, it will be cause for concern. I hope that Jeff Jordan is ready because in one way or another, he is going to be shouldering alot of defensive responsibility tomorrow.

It would make me feel so much more confident if I see Chet suited up tomorrow. The team at the very least should be better rested than UM, as they havent played in over a week, compared to the Wolverines who will be playing for the second straight day. If this team wants a Big Ten Title, they obviously have to beat Michigan. More importantly, this game could mean alot for tournament seeding, as well as a preview of just how far the team can go,

Mizzou-Illinois: A wonk's preview

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:30:06 -0000

Quick programming note: I was supposed to be driving to Oklahoma tonight (and therefore listening to the dulcet tones of Mike Kelly filling me in on the action), but we are now not leaving until tomorrow morning. Which means I get to watch the game tonight after all. Which means...LIVEBLOG!!!

Anyway...

Since it's the biggest game of the season thus far, I figured I could throw together my fun, wonky numbers for a preview...

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Points Per Minute	1.78	1.38	2.16	1.61
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.10	0.85	1.18	0.88
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.26	1.03	1.31	1.14
2-PT FG%	52.2%	43.9%	53.5%	42.3%
3-PT FG%	39.1%	28.7%	36.4%	30.0%
FT%	71.5%	56.2%	63.1%	63.6%

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Assists/Gm	19.7	11.4	20.4	10.5
Steals/Gm	6.5	5.7	11.3	6.9
Turnovers/Gm	13.6	16.7	12.1	19.6
(Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	0.96	2.62	0.89

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Exp. Offensive Rebounds	122	141	136	138
Offensive Rebounds	123	141	153	141
Eq. Rebound Margin	+1	0	+17	+3

You probably didn't need these numbers to tell you that Mizzou is the more up-tempo, offensive team, while Illinois is the slug-it-out, defensive team. If Mizzou has an advantage here, it's because their margins are better. They are +1.73 on the (Ast+Stl)/TO ratio, while UI is +0.96. They are +0.30 on Points Per Possession, while UI is +0.25.
Illinois' rebounding is not quite what I thought it would be. Again, the Expected Offensive Rebounds figure is based on the fact that there are different offensive rebound %'s for 2-pointers, 3-pointers and FT's...plus, both UI's and MU's opponents have missed more shots than they have, so they expected number is higher. From the Expected Rebounds standpoint, Illinois is...only average. They have both grabbed and given up pretty much the exact number of expected offensive rebounds.
Missouri, on the other hand, has been slightly below average in defensive rebounds...but great in offensive rebounds. Strangely, Mizzou might actually have the rebounding edge here.
Projected score based on Points Per Minute: Mizzou 71, Illinois 68
Projected score based on Points Per Possession (and average possessions per game): Mizzou 70, Illinois 69

Missouri Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	17.83	0.69	17.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.8 SPG
Leo Lyons	14.50	0.62	16.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.5 SPG
Marcus Denmon	7.96	0.46	7.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 SPG
Zaire Taylor	7.44	0.30	4.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG
J.T. Tiller	7.21	0.34	6.4 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG
Matt Lawrence	7.17	0.38	9.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Miguel Paul	4.99	0.31	4.8 PPG, 2.4 APG, 1.2 RPG
Keith Ramsey	4.39	0.36	4.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.7 BPG
Kim English	4.00	0.32	6.9 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.0 APG
Laurence Bowers	3.78	0.41	3.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 BPG
Justin Safford	3.77	0.30	4.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jarrett Sutton	2.04	0.58	3.0 PPG
Steve Moore	1.45	0.26	1.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Michael Anderson Jr.	1.10	0.16	1.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG

Illinois Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
Chester Frazier	13.40	0.44	7.2 PPG, 6.6 APG, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Mike Davis	12.34	0.43	13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.8 SPG
Demetri McCamey	11.16	0.37	12.4 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.3 RPG
Trent Meachem	8.09	0.27	10.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 RPG
Mike Tisdale	5.56	0.25	10.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Dominique Keller	5.12	0.46	6.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Calvin Brock	3.44	0.20	5.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 APG
Jeff Jordan	2.19	0.20	1.4 PPG, 1.5 APG
Richard Semrau	1.21	0.09	2.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG
Bubba Chisholm	0.92	0.55	0.7 PPG, 1 Walk-on, 1 great name
Bill Cole	0.79	0.13	1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG
C.J. Jackson	0.25	0.11	1.2 PPG, 0.7 RPG
Alex Legion	-0.54	-0.03	6 pts, 2 reb, 3 TO, 2 PF in 18 minutes

Two things to note immediately: 1) Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are the two (statistically) best players on the court, and 2) While UI has four guys averaging in double-digits, it's Chester Frazier (7.2 PPG) who makes this team tick.
Foul trouble could come into play here. UI's Mike Tisdale averages 0.13 fouls per minute, as does Richard Semrau, while MU's Leo Lyons (0.10) and DeMarre Carrolle (0.08) have both improved in their body control from last year...but they still have lots of foul potential. And in the backcourt, JT Tiller is averaging 0.13 fouls per minute (0.16 against 'real teams'--USC, Cal, Xavier), and none of UI's major guards average higher than 0.08.
Another potential issue: depth. Illinois has three guys averaging 30 minutes per game and has another at 28.7. Meanwhile, Missouri only has four guys averaging as much as 20 minutes per game, with another six averaging 12 minutes or more. Plus, Laurence Bowers is starting to work his way into the rotation, meaning Mizzou has 11 guys who could play regularly. Illinois just got deeper with the addition of Alex Legion, meaning their rotation just went from 10 guys at 11 minutes per game or more, to 11, but Mizzou's "line change" could be pretty effective, as their bench has contributed much more.

Strength of Schedule

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou's SOS is #251 (it's gone down in a hurry), UI's is #237. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou's is #145, UI's is #80.

Strength of...Team

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou is currently the #8 team in the country. Illinois: #16. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou is #39, Illinois #26. Lucky for Mizzou, Ken Pomeroy says the RPI is dead. So there!

Jordans

Illinois 1, Missouri 0. A clear Illini advantage here.

Conference Superiority

The Big Ten has recently asserted itself in a major way, especially against the Big 12 in particular. The Big 11 is 4-0 versus the Big 12 this year and 13-4 over the past two seasons. Granted, this year's results have been from just two teams--Michigan State (who beat OSU and Texas) and Iowa (who beat ISU and KSU)--but still...looks bad. CONFERENCE PRIDE!!!

What does StatSheet.com have to say?

God bless StatSheet...a site that is virtually guaranteed to become my favorite website over the next three months. For Braggin' Rights, they have both a written and stat-heavy preview. Plus, all the StatSheety goodies. Point spread history? Yup. DeMarre Carroll vs Mike Davis comparison? Got it. Jarrett Sutton vs Bubba Chisholm? Bingo. (Sutton kicks Bubba's butt.) Fun (and slightly blinding) player impact charts? Hell yeah...

Stats by StatSheet.com

Prediction

This is just about as evenly-matched a Braggin' Rights game has been since at least about 2002 or 2003. This one should be fun, tense, annoying, exciting, etc. I don't know why I'm even making a prediction--in the current 8-game losing streak to Illinois, I'd have probably picked MU to win in at least 5-6 of those games, because I'm me--but the numbers give the slightest of edges to Missouri. Take strength of scheulde into account, and it basically becomes a coin toss. After landing on Heads for eight straight years, surely the coin will land on Tails this time, right? Missouri 70, Illinois 69.