SB Nation - Mike Davis

Illini look to get right against rival Missouri

Joe Kutsunis — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 23:28:47 -0000

Yeah the headline might be slightly misleading I suppose, as its hard to consider a team that has lost to you nine straight times a true rival, but it is the season to be charitable after all. The smugness that I may exhibit here is just a front of course, because at this point in the season, I can't even take the perennial free win of Mizzou for granted anymore. With the Illini losing to a team that lost to Wofford (WOFFORD SRSLY!?!?) we must once again be reminded that the Illini can be classified as "mercurial" "moody" and "roller-coaster-ish" and many other over used sports terms. Or you could just call it inconsistent, skinny, and easily-pushed-around. The Illini have the tools to beat just about anyone, but apparently can be pushed out of their game all too easily, and I mean that quite literally.

So what to do now? Its not like the Illini can gain 20lbs of muscle in the matter of a week. The Tigers are going to run the same full court press that Clemson successfully ran against the Illini for a full half earlier this season, and we don't necessarily know if the Illini have shored up all of the problems they've had before. We probably wont rebound very well, and we might have more troubles defending in the paint. At this point in the season, its kind of an MO for the Illini, as far as weaknesses go. This team may be on its way to becoming Michigan, in that it is going to live and die completely by its jump shot, and even more than that the 3 ball. Take a look at the three Illini losses this year, the 3 point shooting percentages have been well below their season average of 38% in all three games, with 33% in the loss to Georgia, 22% in the loss to Bradley and an astounding 11% in the loss to Utah. After watching the ultimate 3-happy team, Michigan, miss shot after open against #1 Kansas, I can only get more worried about having my own team tied to that type of game.

But maybe we should focus on some happier things, like how Missouri is a pretty good match-up against the Illini, and are allowing quite a few points a game, and if there was ever a time where Bruce can motivate the Illini it will be for this game, you don't want to be the team that loses to Mizzou after nearly a decade of dominance. I mean hell, Shaun Pruitt never lost to them, what would be their excuse?

I will be there in St. Louis tomorrow night, for the first time this season actually cheering for my team as a fan and not having to keep the pretense of being an "unbiased member of the press" so I am definitely looking forward to it. Follow my live tweets of the game, and stop by here to see if any of the urchins that follow this blog show up to talk in the open thread.

Tip is 8:30 on ESPN2 (hooray, no moar internets!)

Know Your Braggin' Rights Rival: Illinois

Bill C. — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 16:00:29 -0000

by STEPHEN HAAS - AP

Mike Davis is Illinois' best all-around player. (AP Photo/Stephen Haas)

View full size photo »

There must be something wrong with me. I know Mizzou can win this game, and I know a win tomorrow night would give this season a significant bump in the right direction. But when I think of the Illinois game, two major thoughts come to mind:

We're probably going to lose. It's what we do in this game. (And as long as we keep winning the football game, I see this as a fair trade.)
As long as we show improvement, moving the ball relatively well on offense and showing that we've improved on the boards, I'm more or less okay with that.

Here's the problem: every time I've ever decided I've come to grips with a loss beforehand, we end up losing in the most annoying, grating way possible. AJ blocks a shot right to Brian Boddicker for an open 3 against Texas in 2004. Kansas makes two ridiculously stupid 25-foot 3-pointers to win at Hearnes in 2003. Keon Lawrence slips and dribbles the ball off his foot against Illinois in 2007. Et cetera. So now that I've officially accepted that we're probably going to lose this game ... I'm fired up about not losing this game.

Illinois 8-3

	UI	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.97	1.63
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.15	0.95
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.29	1.11
2-PT FG%	52.8%	47.1%
3-PT FG%	38.6%	27.9%
FT%	73.0%	70.8%
True Shooting %	57.3%	49.2%

	UI	Opp
Assists/Gm	17.5	11.5
Steals/Gm	6.1	6.1
Turnovers/Gm	11.7	14.3
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	2.01	1.24

	UI	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	131	144
Offensive Rebounds	125	123
Difference	-6	-21

Ken Pomeroy Stats

UI Offense vs MU Defense Ranks
	UI Offense	MU Defense	Advantage
Efficiency	38	13	MU
Effective FG%	34	11	MU
Turnover %	22	2	MU
Off. Reb. %	122	268	Illini Big
FTA/FGA	321	185	MU Big
MU Offense vs UI Defense Ranks
	MU Offense	UI Defense	Advantage
Efficiency	58	101	MU
Effective FG%	48	73	MU
Turnover %	73	198	MU Big
Off. Reb. %	86	50	Illini
FTA/FGA	313	59	Illini Big

Where the Illini are best

In all, Illinois is a pretty damn efficient offensive team. They shoot well (57.3% true shooting), they don't turn the ball over much (outside of Demetri McCamey), their BCI hovers right at a lovely 2.0, and they are perfectly acceptable in the offensive rebounding category; they're only okay in the rebounds department considering their overall size (six guys 6'9 or taller), but they're still better than Mizzou by all means.

Where the Illini are weakest

First of all, they don't get to the line any better than Mizzou does -- this game could be decided by long jumpers and offensive rebound opportunities. Plus, while they're strong in terms of FG% defense, they don't force too many turnovers.

UI's Season to Date

@Illinois 96, SIU-Edwardsville 69 (W)
@Illinois 80, Northern Illinois 61 (W)
Las Vegas Invitational
@Illinois 94, Presbyterian 48 (W)
@Illinois 78, Wofford 64 (W)
Utah 60, Illinois 58 (in Las Vegas) (L)
Bradley 72, Illinois 68 (in Las Vegas) (L)
Illinois 76, @Clemson 74 (W)
@Illinois 84, Boise State 77 (W)
@Illinois 79, Vanderbilt 68 (W)
@Illinois 88, Western Michigan 53 (W)
@Georgia 70, Illinois 67 (L)

Looking at both Mizzou's and Illinois' results this year, one thing most certainly stands out: these are two young teams. Illinois pulls off an astounding comeback to win in Clemson ... right after losing to an iffy Bradley team and a downright bad Utah team. They pull away from Vanderbilt in a big win ... then lose to Georgia. They have been outstanding (5-0) at home this season, but away from Assembly Hall, things get relatively dicey (3-3). Sounds familiar, right? Mizzou's average win at home this season is by a margin of roughly eleventy-billion-point-one. Away from Mizzou Arena, they're capable of losing to Oral Roberts. This makes this game extremely tough to predict.

Illinois Player Stats

College Basketball

Player	*AdjGS/Gm**	GmSc/Min	Line
Mike Davis (6'9, 220, Jr.)	14.1	0.46	30.5 MPG, 12.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 1.2 APG
Demetri McCamey (6'3, 200, Jr.)	13.1	0.47	27.6 MPG, 14.2 PPG, 5.5 APG, 3.0 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 3.7 TOPG
Mike Tisdale (7'1, 235, Jr.)	11.8	0.50	23.4 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.1 BPG
D.J. Richardson (6'2, 185, Fr.)	9.9	0.34	29.4 MPG, 10.8 PPG, 3.0 APG, 2.3 RPG
Brandon Paul (6'4, 195, Fr.)	8.3	0.37	22.3 MPG, 10.4 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.7 TOPG
Dominique Keller (6'7, 230, Sr.)	6.7	0.45	15.1 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG
Bill Cole (6'9, 215, Jr.)	4.1	0.27	15.2 MPG, 3.5 PPG, 3.3 RPG
Tyler Griffey (6'9, 225, Fr.)	3.9	0.48	8.1 MPG, 3.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG
Jeff Jordan (6'1, 185, Jr.)	3.0	0.17	17.6 MPG, 2.3 PPG, 2.4 APG, 2.2 RPG
Richard Semrau (6'10, 245, Jr.)	2.8	0.44	6.2 MPG, 2.1 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Alex Legion (6'5, 200, Jr.)	1.5	0.15	10.4 MPG, 3.0 PPG
Stan Simpson (6'10, 230, Fr.)	0.6	0.19	12 minutes
Bubba Chisholm (5'11, 180, Sr.)	0.5	0.38	8 minutes

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It redistributes a team's points based not only on points scored, but also by giving credit for assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls. It is a stat intended to determine who had the biggest overall impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Stats from the last two Mizzou-Illinois games:
Demetri McCamey: 28.0 MPG, 12.0 PPG (9-for-14 FG, 4-for-7 3PT), 3.0 APG, 3.0 TOPG
Mike Davis: 25.0 MPG, 9.5 PPG (8-for-13 FG), 5.0 RPG
Mike Tisdale: 13.0 MPG, 6.5 PPG (6-for-11 FG), 4.0 RPG

McCamey murdered Mizzou last year, with 18 first-half points (including, if I remember correctly, at least one bank-shot 3...always a tell-tale sign that you're about to get massacred), so he's clearly the player Mizzou fans fear the most. Knowing Mizzou's current strengths and weaknesses, however, Davis and Tisdale are almost as worrisome.
In all, Mizzou's best opportunity might come from the fact that two of UI's primary ball-handlers are freshmen. That lack of experience is offset a bit by McCamey and the fact that he has had a primary role in two Braggin' Rights games now, but he's a bit of a turnover machine himself. Even though Illinois has put together some solid turnover numbers, if Mizzou can avoid getting shot out of the building like they were last year, they might eventually be able to wear down the Illini backcourt. But that whole "avoid getting your doors blown off early" thing is a bit up in the air.
If Mizzou does derive a bit of an advantage in the backcourt, it is offset by Illinois' extreme depth advantage up front. I like that Davis is only 220 pounds, roughly the same as Laurence Bowers and Keith Ramsey, but Tisdale is a bit of a load, and they have a wealth of other tall guys -- Dominique Keller, Bill Cole, former Mizzou recruit Tyler Griffey, Richard Semrau -- to throw at Mizzou.

And just in case any Illinois fans end up reading this, here are Mizzou's own player stats as well.

Mizzou Player Stats

NCAA Basketball

Player	*AdjGS/Gm**	GmSc/Min	Line
Laurence Bowers (6'8, 205, So.)	13.3	0.67	19.8 MPG, 10.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.7 BPG, 1.5 APG, 1.3 SPG
Kim English (6'6, 200, So.)	12.4	0.56	22.1 MPG, 16.1 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.0 SPG, 1.4 APG, 2.1 TOPG
Zaire Taylor (6'4, 189, Sr.)	11.1	0.40	27.8 MPG, 9.0 PPG, 3.1 APG, 3.1 RPG, 2.8 SPG
Marcus Denmon (6'3, 185, So.)	9.2	0.46	20.1 MPG, 10.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.2 SPG
Keith Ramsey (6'9, 210, Sr.)	9.2	0.36	25.4 MPG, 5.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.1 SPG, 1.7 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.7 TOPG
J.T. Tiller (6'3, 200, Sr.)	7.0	0.30	23.3 MPG, 9.6 PPG, 2.9 APG, 2.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 2.4 TOPG
Mike Dixon (6'1, 175, Fr.)	6.9	0.38	18.1 MPG, 8.2 PPG, 2.8 APG, 1.6 RPG
Justin Safford (6'8, 230, Jr.)	6.2	0.34	18.4 MPG, 7.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 1.2 APG, 1.5 TOPG
Miguel Paul (6'1, 172, So.)	4.4	0.31	14.0 MPG, 4.2 PPG, 2.6 APG
John Underwood (6'9, 208, Fr.)	1.9	0.30	6.3 MPG, 1.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG
Tyler Stone (6'7, 225, Fr.)	1.5	0.34	4.3 MPG, 1.7 PPG, 1.2 RPG
Steve Moore (6'9, 264, So.)	1.3	0.12	11.0 MPG, 1.6 PPG, 1.4 RPG
Jarrett Sutton (6'3, 190, Jr.)	0.6	0.16	4.0 MPG, 1.8 PPG

In some ways, Bowers and Mike Davis are similar players -- not prominent shooters (they score, but they don't take a boatload of shots), solid rebounders (Davis is better), solid passers (Bowers is better). Bowers is the ultimate box score filler, and as we'll see soon enough, the more prominent he is, the better Mizzou gets.
It really is neat watching this defense in action -- no single player dominates in the steals department, but just about everybody snags at least one a game.

Keys to the Game

Pace. The main difference between last season's Mizzou squad and this season's (thus far) is the ability to force their will on their opponent. In almost every game last year, Mizzou was able to force opponents into playing much faster than they wanted, and while we've seen the same type of spurts this season, the spurts don't last nearly as long. While Mizzou prefers a pace well over 70 possessions a game, Old Dominion was able to keep things at a 65-possession pace. Richmond? 60. Oral Roberts? 61. Unacceptable.

Illinois plays at a reasonably fast clip, averaging about 68 possessions per game. With two freshmen and a turnover-heavy star, Illinois might be vulnerable to a faster pace if Mizzou can force them into it. If not, Mizzou's best opportunity for winning goes by the wayside.
Laurence Bowers. He is the key to Mizzou's offensive flow. Ball movement has been alright this year, but with only one person consistently trying to generate shots (Kim English), there hasn't been a lot of purpose to the ball movement. Guys like Bowers and Zaire Taylor will shoot it if they're wide open, but they're not looking to score or create. That has to change if Mizzou has any chance. Taylor has an excuse (he's the point guard, not the shooting guard), but it's time for Bowers to show what his ceiling is. He's done well in the last two cupcake games, taking plenty of shots, but most of them are still in the "putbacks and wide open looks" vein. Let's find out if that's all he is, or if there's a natural, 15 PPG scorer beneath the surface. He's a skinny guy, but he's a good FT shooter, and I want to see him taking a few more not-completely-open shots and driving. Maybe he can do it, and maybe he can't, but I want to find out.
Justin Safford. Can't say it enough: against a reasonably decent rebounding team Saturday night (UAPB), Safford was more aggressive on the boards than I've ever seen him. It was a breath of fresh air, and even if he picks up a couple over-aggressive fouls, I want to see the same level of intensity against Illinois. He is, by default, the biggest player in Mizzou's rotation, the only main contributor over 220 pounds (barely), and if he turns into a solid 6-7 RPG guy (he's averaged only 2.8 RPG against the "real" opponents on Mizzou's schedule so far), Mizzou's overall rebounding trouble just took a step in the right direction.

Prediction

Never bet against a streak, right? This isn't a great Illinois team -- like Mizzou, they are pretty young and vulnerable to falling asleep for minutes at a time. They have a high upside and pretty low downside, and if Mizzou brings the attack to them early, they could run away with this game. But that hasn't happened since 1999. It feels like odds are still in favor of the "McCamey gets hot early, Mizzou has some shots rim in and out and goes into a shell, and they're playing from behind all night" scenario. So I'm chickening out and going with Illinois 75, Mizzou 67. Mizzou absolutely can win this game, but they need to prove it.

Illini at Georgia Preview: Our long week without basketball is over

Joe Kutsunis — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 19:23:11 -0000

More photos » by Robin Scholz - AP

Browse more photos »

Well thankfully our week without any competitive men's basketball was filled in with coaching dismissals, coaching hires, and players declaring for the NFL. All of it very important and interesting but I will always prefer actual games to speculation about future seasons. That said, lets talk about tonight's basketball game shall we?

The Illini travel tonight to face the struggling Georgia Bulldogs on dreaded neutral court in Atlanta Duluth, Georgia. The Bulldogs are not very good this year, and come into this game riding a two game losing streak, and earlier this year lost to common opponent Wofford.

Of course the last time the Illini went to a neutral court against a presumably over matched opponent, we got the last second loss to Utah, and then to Bradley. So I suppose we are in no position to really take many opponents lightly. Its hard to ignore the blow out the Illini dealt the Bulldogs last season in Chicago though. In that game the Illini ran away with it in the second half, outscoring UGA 46-19. Even Bruce admitted that Georgia laid down in the second half and pretty much just accepted defeat. Better yet, the three players who played the best last year, are back in Davis Tis and DMAC.

With the new coach however, I don't expect Georgia to just roll over and accept it like they did last year. They have a quality big man in Trey Tompkins and I assume he will be the player that Bruce wishes to stop most in this game. For the season they have been shooting a respectable 43% from the field, but well behind the Illini, who are nearly making 50% of all shots they take.

Paul Klee said earlier this week that with the right kind of defense, and a shooting percentage that high, the Illini can really starting blowing out their opponents. Offense has not been what the Illini have been lacking so far this year, however, its consistent defense. Defense that, to be fair, has really picked up in the last two games. I for one think that the D is only going to keep getting better as the year goes on, and the freshmen only get more experienced.

I honestly don't think the Illini will have much of a problem with Georgia tonight, They have not played well this year, and I can't shake the memory of the Illini just shooting them out of the building last year. I think the Illini win comfortably.

Western Michigan at Illinois Preview: inter-sport revenge game!

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 01:04:27 -0000

More photos » by Darrell Hoemann - AP

Browse more photos »

Sometimes when you are looking for a storyline for an otherwise unremarkable game you have to reach deep, in this case all the way back to last year's season/program killing loss to Western Michigan in Detroit. It was probably the game that eliminated any chances of the fighting football Ilini returning to a bowl.

Thus the fighting basketball Illini I am sure are filled with immense feelings of anger and revenge as they face the Western Michigan Football Broncos tomorrow.

But lets face it, this is not exactly a game the Illini are actually worried all that much about. As such, it is completely up to them whether or not the Illini will be victorious etc.

Last game against Vanderbilt, the Illini shot an astonishing 60% from the field, a percent they will not often achieve. When they do, of course, I would like to see a team that can beat them. The nerves for me and for others however, come from a few itchy problems that still haunt the Illini.

In what is the best/only real way I can see as quantifiable defense when adjusting for number of possessions, the Illini are still giving up a point per possession to opponents, which according to the Big Ten Geeks, is bad. We know why the defense is bad, because the only perimeter player with any experience at defense was the weakest perimeter player defensively last year.

Turnovers from the point guard, by which I mean Demetri McCamey. It seems to me too many of these TO's come when DMAC wants to push the ball down the court and makes what we would call an inadvisable pass. Not turnovers of carelessness but of "aggression" To his credit, that aggression has paid off many times in other areas. In general though, Demetri just needs to take a moment and not take any unnecessary chances.

Rebounds. Another problem that is basically just chronic to the system the Illini have had to run in recent years. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale get their points from a few steps back from the rim, not underneath. As such, they aren't in the best position to get an offensive board. This isn't as big a deal when they can hit those 15 foot jumpers, which they both can. However, when you aren't hitting, the team has to play better defense to equalize matters, see point #1.

Last home game for about a month, so enjoy your Orange Krush once more before Christmas, tomorrow 1:30pm Central on the BTN.

Illini win over Vanderbilt 79-68, and look good doing it.

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:06:02 -0000

More photos » by Darrell Hoemann - AP

Browse more photos »

Well, thats two top 25 opponents and two wins to show for it, it almost makes up for the two bad losses. Not quite yet perhaps, but it makes a statement to the national media that the Illini are still a factor in this conference.

The game started right for the Illini from the word go, as the Illini jumped out to a 9-0 lead, with the defense forcing Vandy to take bad shots and the offense making Vandy's zone look useless. Mike Tisdale being able to step out and shoot is a weapon that confuses and frustrates a lot of defenses, and it was key to the Illini's early scoring success.

On defense except for a few minor 3 minute lapses, the Illini have played one of their more solid games in that end. Ogilvy looked like he was the most effective player for the 'dores on the offensive end, but their shooters really never woke up like we had worried they would.

I would also like to highlight how damn good Jeff Jordan played tonight, making some very clutch shots, including a long 3 as the shot clock ran out. All the guards had a fine day against the Vandy defense, which seemed like as long as it wasn't Mike Davis taking the shot, they were willing to take their chances.

Mike Davis seemed to play the decoy all night, having very few points but a few assists and blocks to show for his minutes. If the other team wants to take Davis out of the game, clearly they can, but its going to leave Demetri McCamey, (23pts) D.J. Richardson (16 pts) and Tisdale (14 pts) all open to take their shots at will, that is fine by me.

The defense was much more I am sure to Bruce's liking tonight, running almost all man again (as always) and although it did worry me a bit when I saw Brandon Paul having to run off of a screen to pick his an back up. The freshmen will get better in straight man to man D, but it will take time and practice. Exhibit A is Demetri McCamey who was pretty much a defensive liability his freshman year but has become one of the more reliable defensive players on the team.

Speaking of Demetri he once again had one or two too many turnovers (6) but still is clearly the best option at running the offense because he is calmer cooler and more collected than any of the other options. And as our good friend the Donut King has pointed out, many of tonight's turnovers were TO's of aggression, which is in a sense a good thing, but are still in the end turnovers. That aggression of course comes along with his 23 points, so I will take it as an overall push.

Next game is Saturday at noon as the Illini host Western Michigan, then its winter break and the Illini go on the road for their neutral site games.

Periscope: Vanderbilt @ Illinois

KingJamesIV — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:12:20 -0000

More photos » by John Dixon - AP

Browse more photos »

Let me paint a picture for you. Thursday, November 20th, 2008. Illinois enters Memorial Gym. Vanderbilt leads by 5 with 10 minutes to play. Demetri McCamey and Trent Meachem combine for 9 threes. Illinois hands Vanderbilt it's first loss of the season.

The Illinois game serves as a pretty good nutshell of the Commodores 2009 season. In a year when Vandy had 5 freshmen average significant minutes (2 being starters), they couldn't handle adversity and often withered down the stretch.

What a difference a year makes. The 2010 Vanderbilt team seems to thrive when facing adversity. Though they still haven't put together a complete game offensively, they are winning in the trenches.

The Illini 2010 stats are fairly impressive, until you really start to look at their schedule. The toughest team they've played so far has been Clemson, a game they won in which Clemson shamefully gave away its 23 point lead. Clemson and Vandy are pretty similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiencies. According to Ken Pomeroy, Clemson's offensive efficiency is 110.9. Vanderbilt's is 111.9. Clemson's defensive efficiency is 87.3. Vanderbilt's is 88.9. Clemson is the only team Illinois has faced thus far with an offensive efficiency above 110. Vandy has already faced St. Mary's (OffEff 117.1 - @ McKeon Pavilion no less) and Missouri (OffEff 114.6). The Illini's offensive efficiency is 110.9. In fact, excluding Chaminade (game doesn't count in these numbers) Vandy has yet to face a team with an offensive efficiency below 100. Illinois has faced three below 90.

Despite the weak offensive opponents, the Illini defensive efficiency is a mediocre 97.1. On the other hand, Vanderbilt's defensive efficiency is a stout 88.9, especially when you take into consideration the solid offensive teams Vanderbilt has faced.

Looking at the defenses each team has faced, half of Illinois' opponents have defensive efficiencies above 100 (not good - this is a measure of points scored per 100 possessions). Vanderbilt has only faced 1 team with a defensive efficiency over 100. Considering the stringent defenses, Vanderbilt's offense efficiency is all the more impressive.

Here is the breakdown of all these numbers (all taken from Ken Pomeroy):

TSN Preview

Strong defense has been key to Illinois' success thus far, as the team has been able to limit opponents to 65.6 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting from the field. The Illini are also outrebounding foes by nearly seven boards per contest, and they are racking up 79.2 ppg. Mike Davis is one of five double- digit scorers for Illinois, as he is generating 13.6 ppg and 10.1 rpg. Demetri McCamey provides 12.6 ppg, and Brandon Paul checks in with 12.3 ppg. Mike Tisdale (10.9 ppg) and D.J. Richardson (10.6 ppg) round out the balanced Illinois attack. In Saturday's triumph over Boise State, all five starters reached double figures in scoring, paced by McCamey's 23-point outburst. The Illini shot 59.3 percent from the floor in the second half to hold off the Broncos.

In what figures to be a close game from start to finish, give a narrow edge to the home team. The balance of the Illini at the offensive end will be the difference.

Statistical Breakdown:

Commodore Keys

Come to Play - Two weeks ago after Vandy was first ranked in the polls, they laid an egg against Cincinnati. For whatever reason, they didn't bring the effort and intensity that you need to win when you have a target on your back. As the team hopefully learned, you have to take advantage of the extra coverage and media attention that a Top 25 ranking affords.
Limit Turnovers - The team is clearly very good at scoring the ball when they don't turn it over. Although they may not be scoring "pretty", opposing teams are having lots of trouble stopping Vandy from putting the ball through the hoop. You don't win on the road in a hostile environment without taking care of the ball. It stands to reason that Coach Weber has probably been focusing on team defense in practices lately. The last thing the Commodores want is to help build the Illini's defensive confidence by giving up a bunch of early, careless turnovers.
Rebound Like You Want It - When this team puts forth a full effort on the boards, they've been absolutely dominating. They were a good rebounding team last season, so I'm hopeful that the poor numbers early in the season were a reflection of A.J. Ogilvy still working his way back from the concussion and from lack of focus. Limiting second chance points from offensive boards is particularly important. I want to see this team continue to win the offensive rebounding margin.

Jermaine Beal really had a poor game against DePaul on Saturday. Considering they Illini are relying pretty heavily on some freshman guards, it will be imperative for Jermaine to play his game. Foul trouble was the biggest problem for him on Saturday, so I don't see why he won't return to form against Illinois.

One other thing I would like to see tonight would be Jeffery Taylor sniping some lazy freshman passes between those guards, giving Vandy some easy transition dunks. He's going to draw the assignment on one of them, most likely Brandon Paul. Showcase yourself, Jeff.

John Jenkins Update:

Apparently John practiced yesterday prior to the team leaving for Illinois. Hopefully he will be able to play without much trouble from any lingering pain.

Gameday Links:

Vanderbilt's top scorer also talks good game | The Tennessean

"I grew up bilingual," Taylor said. "And usually if you live in Europe you learn the neighboring languages, so I know Danish and Norwegian. They're kind of similar. "Then I know a little Bosnian, Yugoslavian, Serbian … and bits and pieces of other languages I picked up along the way. I have a lot of Bosnian friends in Sweden that were refugees from the war down there." Taylor was even able to surprise Lipscomb junior Adnan Hodzic, a Bosnian native, with a conversion in his native language before their Nov. 16 game at Memorial Gym.

Ogilvy earns SEC weekly award with eye-opening performances | Nashville City Paper

Ogilvy had team-highs of 13 points and seven rebounds last season against Illinois, a game the Commodores lost 69-63. "They’re good, and they’re extremely well-coached," Stallings said of Illinois. "… They’ve got good players, and they have three guys we played a lot against last year with a couple freshmen who are outstanding players. "… We’ll have to be real solid and real tight if we want to get done there what we want to get done."

Coach Bruce Weber emphasizes Illinois needs to play better defense | chicagotribune.com

A man out of position here, a misguided steal attempt there and a team that still is trying to jell after losing its defensive leader from a year ago. Put it all together and you get a defensive output like the one Illinois had in its closer-than-it-should-have-been 84-77 victory Saturday night over Boise State.

VSL Gets You Ready: Vanderbilt Travels to Champaign | Vanderbilt Sports Line

Preview: Vanderbilt - Illinois | Dore Posts

Previewing Vanderbilt at Illinois | VandySports.com (Rivals - Premium)

Scouting Report: Illinois | VandyMania.com (Scout - Premium)

Check out Hail to the Orange for their take on this important Big Ten/SEC Matchup.

As always, post your predictions below and make sure to head over to Stat-King to vote on who you think will be the best performing Commodore against the Fighting Illini. Also, stop by our open game thread which opens an hour before tipoff.

Poll

Vanderbilt Commodores (+4) @ Illinois Fighting Illini -- Who wins?

Vanderbilt by 5 or more

4 votes

Vanderbilt by 4 or less

5 votes

Illinois by 4 or less

3 votes

Illinois by 5 or more

3 votes

15 votes | Poll has closed

Illini hold off Boise State 84-77, the quick post game

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 02:57:32 -0000

More photos » by Darrell Hoemann - AP

Browse more photos »

As you no doubt just watched, the Illini survived the twin terrors of a Boise State team that can score quickly and a basketball game called by the most recognizable referee in College Basketball.

Some notes I would be remissed not to include in this first impressions post

Mike Davis was pretty effin' good tonight 12 rebounds (6 offensive) and 16 points record his fourth double-double of the season. Those points were also fairly crucial as he made several under some extreme contention and when the game was getting a little too close there at the end.
Demetri McCamey, although he had only 2 assists and 6 turnovers is still clearly the best suited player to run the offense right now. About 90% of the "oh god" moments came tonight when he was sitting on the bench. Besides that, he contributed 23 points to lead all scorers, you know thats all.
Brandon Paul has gotten most of the praise and press of the two starting freshmen so far this season, but I want to point out D.J. Richardson tonight. He has saved alot of possessions from the crapper with his 3 point shot, and tonight's 14 points were evidence of that.
Mike Tisdale's free throws, we must always be thankful when a big man makes the free throws.
Lord help Bill Cole, who really worked his ass off tonight spelling Mike Tisdale early, and fouling out for his efforts. He played much better than his stat sheet will tell you.

Fighting Illini & Boise State preview, no time for a step back now.

Joe Kutsunis — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 19:50:31 -0000

More photos » by Brett Flashnick - AP

Browse more photos »

Mike Davis was right when he said that the Illini would have to steal two games that they were not supposed to win, the game against a ranked Clemson at LittleJohn was just such a game. A stolen win against a Gonzaga or another highly respected opponent would make up completely for Vegas.

But, this also means the Illini cannot drop anymore games to less than stellar out of conference opponents. The Illini are still 5-2 with losses to not so great teams; losing tonight to a Boise State would put the Illini exactly back where they were on Tuesday night, with a very grim record heading into Conference play. We should also not forget that counting the first half of Clemson and the second half of utah, the Illini had a streak of 4 straight halves of absolutely awful basketball.

As amazing as it was when Demetri came back into the game on Wednesday, we saw just how terrible this team can be without him around to run the offense. Demetri is going to have to stay out of foul trouble for the rest of the year, because he has become absolutely indispensable to the success of this team.

It has taken some time but Tisdale has finally come out of his shell and his playing like the scoring threat that we knew from last year. He not only scored the key points against Clemson in the closing minute, but also came away with the biggest block of the season, shutting the door on Clemson's chances to take the Illini into overtime.

Mike Davis too showed up and in a big way in the second half of Clemson. His shot is about as automatic as I have ever seen right now, but he is going to be relied upon all year as the primary rebounder for this team, if he doesn't show up inside, there is no one really that can pick up the slack.

Lastly the freshmen, this team's unknown factor. D.J. and Brandon have shown the brightest when the team is running at full speed, and when they don't have to make decisions on offense. Brandon Paul has proven that when you get a Mr Basketball from the state of Illinois on your team, you have good things to look forward to. Both of these guys played unbelievably in the second half, but were frighteningly dangerous with their hands on the ball under a full court press. The team didn't break its funk until DMAC was able to provide some stability coming down the court. Richardson and Paul are the greatest beneficiaries of the well run motion offense, and if this team has the time and poise to set them up, these freshmen are going to continue to look very good.

Because that is the biggest problem it seems for the Illini, turning the ball over, credit some of it to youth of the freshmen but some to the inability of many of the upperclassmen to react to one of their team mates being in trouble with the ball. It was their undoing in all of their troubled periods this season thus far and will more than likely be their weakness all season. When taking care of the ball, this team will be scary good this season, when not, as we have already seen, they can lose to anyone.

Oh, and we are playing Boise tonight.

The greatest Illini comeback ever. Illini upset Clemson 76-74

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:49:15 -0000

More photos » by Brett Flashnick - AP

21 days ago: Illinois forward Mike Davis, back, the leading scorer, is congratulated by teammates Dominique Keller, left and Bill Cole, right, after Illinois' 76-74 victory over Clemson in an NCAA college basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2009, at Littlejohn Colliseum, in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Brett Flashnick)

Browse more photos »

Oh what is there is there to be said about this game? Other than of course that this was the greatest comeback for an Illinois team ever, that it was as improbable of a comeback as there could be and that I have not had this much fun watching a basketball since Arizona in 2005.

I cannot stress enough just how bad the Illini looked in the first half. With Demetri sitting on the bench with fouls in the first half, the freshmen wilted under the pressure of Clemson. The Illini seemed to turn the ball over on their end every trip down the court, and give up a foul on every defensive stand. Bad passes, offense not getting set, and a lazy defense giving up long 3's.

Then it all switched around, the key being Demetri McCamey coming back into the game. Although the stat line only shows 7 assists, Demetri provided the leadership that carried the Illini back into this game. He had poise under the pressure and was able to break the Clemson defense down with his skillful passing.

DMAC provided the grit and leadership, Brandon Paul and Mike Davis provided the fireworks, as each went over 20 points on the night. Davis always seemed to be on the money from inside the arc, and Paul, well he only made some of the most acrobatic and amazing drives to the basket I have seen from an Illini in some time.

D.J. Richardson and Mike Tisdale, once they had their feet back under them came to life in the second half, providing 14 and 12 points respectively. Tisdale even had what has to be the slowest ball fake and drive I have ever seen, the basket that would prove to be the game winner.

A last note. I am very impressed with the way that Bruce switched to a zone in the second half, something he is loathe to do, and even more impressed that the Illini took to it without thinking twice. Bruce does not run zone, ever. But tonight that tough zone may have been the key to the Illini pulling this one out, as they held the Tigers to 20 points less in the second half than the first.

Good game guys, and thank you for being the victory that would prove decisive in delivering the Big Ten their first Challenge title. Maybe now we can give the Midwest a little round ball cred?

Clemson is such a weird basketball program

SFBE.NF — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 03:37:15 -0000

More photos » by Brett Flashnick - AP

Browse more photos »

While it wasn't quite appropriate given the 23-point deficit, a point was made. With a few minutes remaining, ESPN briefly flashed a "Greatest Comebacks in NCAA History" graphic as Illinois had impressively cut Clemson's lead to single-digits, shifting the game's momentum. While I am too lazy to confirm, I believe the graphic noted a game from the 50s where a team blew a 31 point lead. Nonetheless, while Illinois's 76-74 win was eight points short of making history, the mere fact that a remote TV producer was calling for that stat is telling to the sort of chokejob we were able to witness.

The Tigers are such an enigma. Tonight's loss comes on the heels of a one-point victory over Butler, but is just one week removed from a loss to Texas A&M. Trevor Booker is one of the toughest players to guard in the country, but yet his teammates repeatedly look him off in the post but shoot 37 percent from the field.

For the Illini, it was the first true road game for this young team, who has an emerging star in Brandon Paul, supplementary blue chipper DJ Richardson, and a dose of leadership from Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale (who despite being a great piece for this team, we can't overlook the fact he is quite unfortunate looking).

Who knows how the Tigers will bounce back. But I do know that Oliver Purnell is sitting in an unenviable position tonight as he reluctantly watches game tape while the rest of the country sleeps.