SB Nation - Calvin Brock

NCAA Round 1, Illinois vs WKU: Dont Believe the Hype

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 19 Mar 2009 16:39:39 -0000

So, by now you have read all about it, without Chester, the TV says, this team is sunk. Forget the strong team defense, forget the massive height advantage the Illini big men enjoy, and most of all forget the bad losses the Hilltoppers suffered to teams outside of the top 100 RPI. All you need to know? Illinois can't score, the Big Ten is always and forever will be weak, WKU made the Sweet 16 last year with the #22 overall draft pick, and a coach that doesn't coach there anymore. I don't know why I am even bothering to right a preview for this game, because the outcome seems preordained.

But you of course know something better, that on a team where every thing is balanced, and revolves around operating as a unit. even the loss of Chester Frazier wont drastically change the face of this defense. This team is alot like the Michigan team which we faced in the BTT, but not as good. A team we beat without Chester. While Chester is the best defender by far, Jeff Jordan and Calvin Brock are no slouches themselves, and will I believe show the Hilltoppers the best defense they have seen all season.

Given the height advantage enjoyed by Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale, if the guards can work the ball into these two, the scoring should not be entirely too difficult. WKU has given up huge amounts of points all year long, their defense is not as good as Purdue's, Minnesota's or Penn State's. Scoring droughts, with the Illini are always a worry, but these scoring droughts occurred against teams that are much better equipped size wise to defend them, and against teams that do not rely on purely outscoring their opponents, as WKU does.

Yes Slaughter and Mendez Valdez are talented players, but neither are Courtney Lee. As much as has been advertised about their team knowing how to win in the tournament, it is important to know that the coach that took them there is now the head coach of South Carolina.

I have every confidence that with the amount of rest the Illini have been allowed, and with the advantages we enjoy among personnel, the Illini will be successful against WKU.This game seems to me very similar to the last game against Michigan, with the amount of rest a team with our lack of depth has been afforded by the week off, and a week for Bruce to prepare a gameplan this game should be a victory.

I think Chuck D and Flav said it best.

Illini play best game of their season, advance to face Purdue

Joe Kutsunis — Sat, 14 Mar 2009 18:11:27 -0000

The way the Illini beat Michigan yesterday made me realize that I had underestimated this team. Without their best defensive player, the team defense of the Illini stepped up to hold Manny Harris to only 9 points, and Sims to 15. Considering that the two combined for 45 against Iowa the day before, that is no small feat. Calvin Brock, Jeff Jordan, and even Demetri McCamey all put forth probably their best defensive efforts of the season. Especially Brock, who replaced Frazier in the starting line up and was brilliant in his defense, never allowing Manny Harris to get comfortable.

Mike Davis needs to be spotlit for his performance as well, because frankly he played out of his mind. He had yet another double-double with 22 points and 10 rebounds, but also had 2 blocks and 3 steals. It seems that every time we think he has hit a plateau, he jumps up another level. I would say he has more than made up for the missed free throw at the end of the Penn State. He keeps getting better and better, and I have a feeling that he will not be staying all the way to his senior year. He may not have reached his full potential yet, but he getting hot at just the right time.

I hope he stays hot, because todays game does not look any easier. As the Illini look to defeat the Boilermakers for the third time this season, something that is always very difficult. In fact the tables were turned last season, as the Illini had lost both regular season games to Purdue, only to beat them in overtime. The talent level of the Boilermakers is too high to be mandhandled by the same team three times in a season. Especially since Robbie Hummel will be back playing now. If the Illini play like they did against the Wolverines, I believe that they can beat Purdue. PU however has broken their slump as well, playing exceptionally well against Penn State last night, nearly running them out of the gym in the first half. The game plan against Purdue doesnt change, play very tough defense and be efficient on possessions. I am looking forward to see if Tisdale can pick up his game tonight against Jajuan Johnson. If our big men get the looks they were getting against Michigan last night, we should have no problem scoring. The trick will be keeping the guards from getting open looks from beyond the arc, a range that the Boilermakers, just like the Wolverines, can be lethal from. If for some reason, Chester is able to play today, it would be gravy, if not, I no longer worry about the team's defense without him. Something that definitely comforts me about next year's team as well.

Penn State Defeats Illinois - Moves One Step Closer to the NCAA Tournament

BSD — Fri, 06 Mar 2009 15:51:55 -0000

Final - 3.5.2009	1	2	Total
Illinois Fighting Illini	34	29	63
Penn St. Nittany Lions	32	32	64

Complete Coverage >

When they were down by ten points midway through the second half it looked like Illinois was going to run away with it. But Penn State hung in there.

When Illinois was awarded a basket after the shot clock expired to take a ten point lead with five minutes to go, and Jamelle Cornley was rolling around on the baseline with a separated shoulder, it looked like the game was over and Penn State was destined for the NIT. But they didn't give up. In the huddle during the timeout Talor Battle told his team, "We're not losing."

When down by one with ten seconds to go, Talor Battle tried to split two defenders to drive to the basket, but he turned the ball over. It seemed like all was lost at that point. Timeout was called, and in the huddle Battle told his teammates, "I'm going to make it up to you. I promise."

After the timeout, Mike Davis missed the front end of the 1-and-1. Cornley used his one good arm to pull down the rebound. He tossed the outlet to Battle who raced up the left sideline. He went around a defender. He cut to the middle to avoid a charge. He tossed up a prayer that kissed off the glass, bounced off the front of the rim, tapped the glass again, and fell softly into the net. And then...

Pandemonium

The Good

Though Talor Battle is getting all the praise for his last second heroics, Stanley Pringle was the MVP of the game. Every time it looked like Illinois was about to put the Nitts away, Pringle stepped up with a key bucket or a three pointer. He finished the game with 20 points on 8-of-11 shooting and a perfect 4-for-4 from the arc. He also finished with five rebounds, two steals, a block and an assist. Then he felt hungry and walked up to the concourse to get a hot dog. Hey, they were only a buck!

The free throw shooting was good all night, but it was superb down the stretch. Inside the last five minutes Penn State went a perfect 7-for-7 from the stripe. Danny Morrissey was particularly clutch hitting all three attempts when he was fouled on a three point shot. That cut the ten point lead down to seven and really sparked the frantic late run.

Jamelle Cornley was a warrior. He only scored seven points and seven rebounds, but he had to leave the game with five minutes to go due to a separated shoulder. He came back in after Andrew Jones fouled out and pulled down two crucial rebounds and played some monster defense against Tisdale in the final minutes even though you could tell he had no use of his left arm. There was no way he was going to watch the end of that game, his last game on his home court, from the bench.

The Bad

The last minute heroics shine up the turd that was another lackluster game from Battle. He shot a horrible 1-for-8 from the arc, and there were several instances when he drove the lane and should have kicked it out to an open man instead of throwing up a desperation shot.

Andrew Jones fouled out with about four minutes to go in the game. I think three of his fouls were bumping fouls out away from the basket. It was a huge event because it forced Cornley to come back in the game. There was no way David Jackson or Jeff Brooks were going to stop Mike Tisdale down low.

The referees weren't giving Penn State much to work with in the second half. On one set of possessions, Ott appeared on replay to grab a rebound and dunk it home, but the refs ruled he grabbed the ball while it was on the rim and waved off the basket. Then on the ensuing Illinois possession Tisdale threw up a desperation baseline shot at the buzzer. It completely missed the rim, but Calvin Brock caught the airball and put it back up for a basket. Replay clearly showed the shot clock had expired while the ball was still in Brocks hands. This was a four point turn of events against Penn State.

The Ugly

My God the announcers were annoying. We were constantly reminded about how bad the first game between these two teams sucked. After each basket they had to express shock that these two teams are actually capable of scoring. And we were constantly reminded about Penn State's poor strength of schedule, and I can recall only once or twice where anyone with the WWL mentioned we have road wins at Michigan State and Illinois with a home win over Purdue.

What does it all mean?

Obviously this was a huge boost for Penn State's tournament chances. The general consensus among the talking heads is that if the season ended right now we're in. Joe Lunardi has us in as a #12 seed in the Midwest right now.

Obviously a lot can happen between now and Selection Sunday. First and foremost we have to keep winning, and that starts with Iowa at 2 PM this Saturday. Then we get the conference tournament next week. If we beat Iowa, and Michigan State beats Purdue, Penn State will unbelievably be the #2 seed in the conference tournament by virtue of the fact that we swept Illinois and have a win over Michigan State. In fact, let's just take a moment and enjoy this right here.

Big Ten Conference Standings

(updated 3.6.2009 at 4:55 AM EST)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Michigan St. Spartans	14	3	24	5
Purdue Boilermakers	11	6	22	8
Illinois Fighting Illini	11	7	23	8
Penn St. Nittany Lions	10	7	21	9
Minnesota Golden Gophers	9	8	21	8
Ohio St. Buckeyes	9	8	19	9
Wisconsin Badgers	9	8	18	11
Michigan Wolverines	8	9	18	12
Northwestern Wildcats	8	9	17	11
Iowa Hawkeyes	4	13	14	16
Indiana Hoosiers	1	16	6	23

With ten wins, Penn State has clinched their first ever winning conference record in Big Ten play. For the first time in eight years, Penn State basketball is relevant in March. We're actually being discussed on ESPN, and it's not in reference to another horrid season.

This is the best Penn State basketball team EVER since we joined the Big Ten. Whether we make the tournament or not, this has been a special season for Penn State basketball.

(H to the) Izzo. Illini vs Spartans preview.

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 13:00:09 -0000

So, what to say about this game, other than the fact that the entirety of our championship aspirations depend upon it. It may lead to a three way shared title for the Illini, but would any of us really turn that down at this point?

Assembly Hall will be hosting a Senior day matchup between top 10 and top 20 teams, with nothiing less than the Conference Crown on the line. Yes, it is a sellout. Yes i the Hall will be rockin. And no, I didnt get a ticket. Regardless, lets get to meat of this shall we.

When last these two teams met, Illinois led most of the way, helped by strong jump shooting and MSU repeatedly turning it over. Unfortunately for the Illini, the wheels fell off as the lead evaporated in the closing minutes. When the Spartans started to run and push.

One of the key match ups will be Mike Tisdale against Goran Suton or Marquis Gray down low. I am pretty much conceding the rebound battle to MSU right now, but I am hopeful that Tisdale will be able to better defend under the basket. We cannot allow the sort of bunnies that got through against Minnesota.

Chester is more than likely going to be matched up against Kalin Lucas, but that still leaves Raymar Morgan to be dealt with. With rebounding and speed in favor of MSU, I sure hope the Illini hit their shots, because there could be quite a few fast breaks going the other way if that is not the case.

Good news is, with the exception of Chester, the entire starting lineup is averaging in double figures for points. If we keep the keep our possessions efficient, take open shots, slow the game down, we can definitely beat this team. It would help of course if the tight man defense creates as many turnovers as it did in East Lansing.

Oddly enough, the last time these teams met, Alex Legion actually led the team in scoring with 15 points off the bench. He has not matched that output since. Hey today is as good as any for things to click, right?

On a personal note, today is Senior day, and I am a graduating senior here in Champaign. The Minnesota game will end up being the last home game that I attend as a student. So in honor of Senior day, I'd like to single out rhe 4 graduating seniors on the team. Trent Meacham who transferred to Illinois, just like me, because its always where he had wanted to go. C.J Jackson who is by far my favorite dual sport player. Calvin Brock who has seen the highest of the high and the lowest of the low for this program over his 5 seasons in Champaign. And lastly Chester Frazier, who in his senior year has transformed himself into the catalyst of the offense the best defender, and the heart and soul of the basketball team. He caught a lot of flack for his play last year, but this year, there are very few people who would criticize this guy.

Way to go guys, you have led the resurgence from last year.

Mizzou-Illinois: A wonk's preview

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:30:06 -0000

Quick programming note: I was supposed to be driving to Oklahoma tonight (and therefore listening to the dulcet tones of Mike Kelly filling me in on the action), but we are now not leaving until tomorrow morning. Which means I get to watch the game tonight after all. Which means...LIVEBLOG!!!

Anyway...

Since it's the biggest game of the season thus far, I figured I could throw together my fun, wonky numbers for a preview...

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Points Per Minute	1.78	1.38	2.16	1.61
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.10	0.85	1.18	0.88
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.26	1.03	1.31	1.14
2-PT FG%	52.2%	43.9%	53.5%	42.3%
3-PT FG%	39.1%	28.7%	36.4%	30.0%
FT%	71.5%	56.2%	63.1%	63.6%

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Assists/Gm	19.7	11.4	20.4	10.5
Steals/Gm	6.5	5.7	11.3	6.9
Turnovers/Gm	13.6	16.7	12.1	19.6
(Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	0.96	2.62	0.89

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Exp. Offensive Rebounds	122	141	136	138
Offensive Rebounds	123	141	153	141
Eq. Rebound Margin	+1	0	+17	+3

You probably didn't need these numbers to tell you that Mizzou is the more up-tempo, offensive team, while Illinois is the slug-it-out, defensive team. If Mizzou has an advantage here, it's because their margins are better. They are +1.73 on the (Ast+Stl)/TO ratio, while UI is +0.96. They are +0.30 on Points Per Possession, while UI is +0.25.
Illinois' rebounding is not quite what I thought it would be. Again, the Expected Offensive Rebounds figure is based on the fact that there are different offensive rebound %'s for 2-pointers, 3-pointers and FT's...plus, both UI's and MU's opponents have missed more shots than they have, so they expected number is higher. From the Expected Rebounds standpoint, Illinois is...only average. They have both grabbed and given up pretty much the exact number of expected offensive rebounds.
Missouri, on the other hand, has been slightly below average in defensive rebounds...but great in offensive rebounds. Strangely, Mizzou might actually have the rebounding edge here.
Projected score based on Points Per Minute: Mizzou 71, Illinois 68
Projected score based on Points Per Possession (and average possessions per game): Mizzou 70, Illinois 69

Missouri Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	17.83	0.69	17.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.8 SPG
Leo Lyons	14.50	0.62	16.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.5 SPG
Marcus Denmon	7.96	0.46	7.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 SPG
Zaire Taylor	7.44	0.30	4.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG
J.T. Tiller	7.21	0.34	6.4 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG
Matt Lawrence	7.17	0.38	9.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Miguel Paul	4.99	0.31	4.8 PPG, 2.4 APG, 1.2 RPG
Keith Ramsey	4.39	0.36	4.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.7 BPG
Kim English	4.00	0.32	6.9 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.0 APG
Laurence Bowers	3.78	0.41	3.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 BPG
Justin Safford	3.77	0.30	4.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jarrett Sutton	2.04	0.58	3.0 PPG
Steve Moore	1.45	0.26	1.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Michael Anderson Jr.	1.10	0.16	1.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG

Illinois Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
Chester Frazier	13.40	0.44	7.2 PPG, 6.6 APG, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Mike Davis	12.34	0.43	13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.8 SPG
Demetri McCamey	11.16	0.37	12.4 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.3 RPG
Trent Meachem	8.09	0.27	10.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 RPG
Mike Tisdale	5.56	0.25	10.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Dominique Keller	5.12	0.46	6.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Calvin Brock	3.44	0.20	5.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 APG
Jeff Jordan	2.19	0.20	1.4 PPG, 1.5 APG
Richard Semrau	1.21	0.09	2.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG
Bubba Chisholm	0.92	0.55	0.7 PPG, 1 Walk-on, 1 great name
Bill Cole	0.79	0.13	1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG
C.J. Jackson	0.25	0.11	1.2 PPG, 0.7 RPG
Alex Legion	-0.54	-0.03	6 pts, 2 reb, 3 TO, 2 PF in 18 minutes

Two things to note immediately: 1) Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are the two (statistically) best players on the court, and 2) While UI has four guys averaging in double-digits, it's Chester Frazier (7.2 PPG) who makes this team tick.
Foul trouble could come into play here. UI's Mike Tisdale averages 0.13 fouls per minute, as does Richard Semrau, while MU's Leo Lyons (0.10) and DeMarre Carrolle (0.08) have both improved in their body control from last year...but they still have lots of foul potential. And in the backcourt, JT Tiller is averaging 0.13 fouls per minute (0.16 against 'real teams'--USC, Cal, Xavier), and none of UI's major guards average higher than 0.08.
Another potential issue: depth. Illinois has three guys averaging 30 minutes per game and has another at 28.7. Meanwhile, Missouri only has four guys averaging as much as 20 minutes per game, with another six averaging 12 minutes or more. Plus, Laurence Bowers is starting to work his way into the rotation, meaning Mizzou has 11 guys who could play regularly. Illinois just got deeper with the addition of Alex Legion, meaning their rotation just went from 10 guys at 11 minutes per game or more, to 11, but Mizzou's "line change" could be pretty effective, as their bench has contributed much more.

Strength of Schedule

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou's SOS is #251 (it's gone down in a hurry), UI's is #237. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou's is #145, UI's is #80.

Strength of...Team

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou is currently the #8 team in the country. Illinois: #16. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou is #39, Illinois #26. Lucky for Mizzou, Ken Pomeroy says the RPI is dead. So there!

Jordans

Illinois 1, Missouri 0. A clear Illini advantage here.

Conference Superiority

The Big Ten has recently asserted itself in a major way, especially against the Big 12 in particular. The Big 11 is 4-0 versus the Big 12 this year and 13-4 over the past two seasons. Granted, this year's results have been from just two teams--Michigan State (who beat OSU and Texas) and Iowa (who beat ISU and KSU)--but still...looks bad. CONFERENCE PRIDE!!!

What does StatSheet.com have to say?

God bless StatSheet...a site that is virtually guaranteed to become my favorite website over the next three months. For Braggin' Rights, they have both a written and stat-heavy preview. Plus, all the StatSheety goodies. Point spread history? Yup. DeMarre Carroll vs Mike Davis comparison? Got it. Jarrett Sutton vs Bubba Chisholm? Bingo. (Sutton kicks Bubba's butt.) Fun (and slightly blinding) player impact charts? Hell yeah...

Stats by StatSheet.com

Prediction

This is just about as evenly-matched a Braggin' Rights game has been since at least about 2002 or 2003. This one should be fun, tense, annoying, exciting, etc. I don't know why I'm even making a prediction--in the current 8-game losing streak to Illinois, I'd have probably picked MU to win in at least 5-6 of those games, because I'm me--but the numbers give the slightest of edges to Missouri. Take strength of scheulde into account, and it basically becomes a coin toss. After landing on Heads for eight straight years, surely the coin will land on Tails this time, right? Missouri 70, Illinois 69.