SB Nation - Bill Cole

Illini soundly defeat Presbyterian, led by second half defense.

Joe Kutsunis — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 02:52:56 -0000

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Not much can be learned from this game I would say, other than team defense will not be a concept that will be lost in the shuffle this year. There was no real stand out individual performance like Brandon Paul has had the two previous games, D.J. Richardson to his credit did score 15 to lead the Illini, but scoring was overall very balanced Saturday night. Mike Davis had another solid game but fell one rebound short of a double-double. Alex Legion came out with his first real scoring night of the year, scoring 11 points fueled by his 3-point shooting. But no single player really stood out to me as taking the game over.

The real story of this game was the way in which the team played defense. We already knew that D.J. wanted to become the defensive stopper to replace Chester this year, but aside from stopping one single player in one on one, the overall team defense has not really been up to Bruce's expectations.

In the second half of Saturday night's game, I would have to say it was. The team jumped out onto a 25 to 4 run to start the second half and did not really look back. The run was marked by efficient and solid offense yes, but also by a team wide defense that suffocated the Blue Hose and never let them move the ball. The return of Jeff Jordan, who has long been known as a very tough defensive player surely did not hurt, and his increased minutes due to Demetri McCamey's early foul trouble allowed Bruce to really see how Jeff handled the duties of PG.

While the offense was not as dazzling as when Demetri McCamey was running the show, it did run well enough. Jordan looked especially good on defense once again and showed why there will always be minutes available for the walk-on. The guard rotation relied mostly on McCamey for ball handling duties, and by the looks of it, D.J. will have to wait a while to really take over as the primary backup again.

Final - 11.21.2009	1	2	Total
Presbyterian Blue Hose	28	20	48
Illinois Fighting Illini	43	51	94

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Bruce looked to be experimenting with all sorts of different line up in the second half, presumably to see how well the functioned as an offense. At one point we even saw Jeff Jordan at 1, Bill Cole at 2, Dominique Keller at 3, Tyler Griffey at 4 and Richard Semrau at 5. In all of this we saw more of every primary back up than we have seen all season. Even Stan Simpson and Bubba Chisholm were able to get in on the action near the end. I know Bertrand is still out with injury, and he is expected to return sooner or later but I am wondering if Bruce is starting to contemplate a Red Shirt.

Back to the defense though, the Illini would ultimately hold the Blue Hose to only 20 second half points, and that may be the best news yet for an Illini fan this year. After the NIU victory where the team had neglected to really put the Huskies down for good, there were already rumblings about this team not being as defensively sound as last years and that it looked like we were going to have to rely on offense alone to really win games. (After two games, I know, but people read too much into everything these days) A no doubt about it defensive win should hopefully put these fears to rest for the time being at least. Once Big Ten teams like MSU and Purdue come to town of course, the Illini will need every bit of offense and defense they have to stay in the game.

Brandon Paul and Mike Davis lead Illini past NIU, have I heard this before?

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:53:04 -0000

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Yes the long awaited reaction to last nights intrastate match between the Illini and the Huskies of Northern Illinois has finally arrived. I feel that the win over the Huskies, while not as comfortable as the win over SIUE has taught us much mroe about how the Illini will perform this year as a team, and there is a lot more good than bad.

If nothing else the game showed us that Brandon Paul's earlier stellar debut against SIUE was no fluke, as he posted another 20 point game, this time doing all of his scoring in the first half. D.J. Richardson has not had the regular season scoring explosion to match Paul yet, but he is still contributing in no small amount putting in 31 minutes and getting steals and assists as the current second option for running the offense after Demetri. I have no doubt that the scoring torrents will come sooner or later though, just as we saw in the final exhibition game against Quincy.

Speaking of Demetri McCamey, I know its very early in the season, but it has become very apparent that DMAC is a completely different player than we have seen before, and in a very good way. DMAC had 10 points, 8 assists, 3 steals and a block. He even ended up being second in the rebound column with 5 (more on that later.) The only blemish on his stat sheet being his 4 turnovers. The stats however do not do justice to some of the coolest passes I have seen Demetri ever make, specifically finding Mike Davis for the easy points down low. I said before that when Demetri was out of the game, the offense does not move with the same rhythm or efficiency, and this was still true last night. But maybe it looks to our eyes even worse than it is because DMAC is getting it and running the offense that well. I know its premature to say so, but with stat lines and play like last night McCamey could very well be on his way to being a true replacement for Chester Frazier, but with the threat to still go off for 20 in a game, which is something different entirely.

My ~~last~~ next note on the game should be the so-so lackadaisical performance of Mike Davis. All he did was record 14 points, 17 boards, (4 offensive) and a couple blocks. Yawn. In all seriousness, this performance only seems to reinforce my belief that Davis will be First Team All Big Ten this year and that he is on his way to another big jump this year. This is Mike's second straight double-double, and doesn't look like he will be easily stopped from doing so against most teams. We already know he can score, but getting boards like he did last night, especially on the offensive end are hopefully a sign of things to come.

Overall the rotation of the big men is going much deeper than last year, where there were really only 3 players that got all the minutes down low last year, this year Tyler Griffey and Bill Cole have been getting very good minutes to spell Tis Davis and Dominique Keller, who got 10 points and 2 blocks in his own right.

Of course the who night wasn't all roses and happiness, the team had trouble keeping NIU from creeping back into the game on multiple occasions and the virtual disappearance of Mike Tisdale in the first half are things that both need to be addressed. The team definitely ratcheted down the defense in the second half, but the team defense was not as consistent as it needs to be in order to fully control a game like Bruce wants to. In future against other Big Ten teams that will defend you brutally and leave you bruised, this team may not be able to count on explosive wide open shots for Brandon Paul like the ones that carried the team in the first half.

The next two games of course are very much still warm up games, but I will be there on Saturday night to cover the Illini game against the Presbyterian Blue Hose. Yeah, yeah we all know the jokes. Am I being irrationally exuberant about this basketball team? Maybe I am, but I am going to enjoy top 25 winning basketball until someone can convince me otherwise.

Jeff Jordan leaving team for academics. A surprising player continues to surprise.

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 23:08:47 -0000

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Off season news, are you ever good? According to today's Sun Times heir apparent to the throne of Chester Frazier as defensive standout and passer, Jeff Jordan announced today that he would not be playing for Bruce this winter. Not to transfer to another school for more playing time or a scholarship, because both were basically his for the taking. (Well not the scholarship.) No he is leaving the team to focus more on his academics. Not because he was failing and hadn't qualified for play, but so that he can be the best student he could be while trying to be successful in something other than basketball. I am puzzled, intrigued and fascinated by this, I have to say.

Situations like Jeff's do not come around all that often. Sure lots of children of NBA players get to play in college, lots of them in Division 1. Very rarely though do they come from someone with as much name recognition as Jordan. More than a few people must have wondered why someone who could have gotten a full ride at a mid major would want to be a walk on at Illinois, where, in most years at least playing time would be hard to come by, Equally many I am sure wondered if inviting Jeff to play for the Illini was little more than a publicity stunt by Bruce to distract from problems in his program. On the one hand though, Jeff proved that he was perhaps better than his walkon status let on, earning a huge amount of time at point guard as a walk-on, and even earning a full athletic scholarship the second half of last year. On the other, maybe it is clearer why Jeff would want to come to a place like Illinois, after all, we do have a fairly impressive Academic resume (#10 public school,according to US news and world report.) And while our admissions boards might be as crooked as George Ryan and Rod Blago combined, most people seem to benefit from their time here in Champaign.

Most people are not in a position like Jeff, are there really that many students who could afford to turn down a full athletic scholarship, or have the same amount of athletic pressure? Jeff has enough money to play basketball at a Division 1 level for fun, and has decided that he wants to make a name for himself in something other than basketball. I respect that, and wish him well. In my book, he doesn't have to prove anything to anyone.

As for what this means for the basketball team, it all but guarentees that a freshman will be starting at guard next year, (with the outside chance of having 2 frosh start, depending on Legion.) Should we start asking ourselves if Bill Cole, with his 3 point range, might make a decent Legion-style guard? More importantly I hope Demetri will have improved his passing and decision making, because with out Jeff there is going to be a definite vacuum for true point guards. No matter what it means for the team, I wish JJ well in his pursuit of a degree, there is more to life than basketball, even if your name is Jordan.

Mizzou-Illinois: A wonk's preview

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:30:06 -0000

Quick programming note: I was supposed to be driving to Oklahoma tonight (and therefore listening to the dulcet tones of Mike Kelly filling me in on the action), but we are now not leaving until tomorrow morning. Which means I get to watch the game tonight after all. Which means...LIVEBLOG!!!

Anyway...

Since it's the biggest game of the season thus far, I figured I could throw together my fun, wonky numbers for a preview...

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Points Per Minute	1.78	1.38	2.16	1.61
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.10	0.85	1.18	0.88
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.26	1.03	1.31	1.14
2-PT FG%	52.2%	43.9%	53.5%	42.3%
3-PT FG%	39.1%	28.7%	36.4%	30.0%
FT%	71.5%	56.2%	63.1%	63.6%

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Assists/Gm	19.7	11.4	20.4	10.5
Steals/Gm	6.5	5.7	11.3	6.9
Turnovers/Gm	13.6	16.7	12.1	19.6
(Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	0.96	2.62	0.89

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Exp. Offensive Rebounds	122	141	136	138
Offensive Rebounds	123	141	153	141
Eq. Rebound Margin	+1	0	+17	+3

You probably didn't need these numbers to tell you that Mizzou is the more up-tempo, offensive team, while Illinois is the slug-it-out, defensive team. If Mizzou has an advantage here, it's because their margins are better. They are +1.73 on the (Ast+Stl)/TO ratio, while UI is +0.96. They are +0.30 on Points Per Possession, while UI is +0.25.
Illinois' rebounding is not quite what I thought it would be. Again, the Expected Offensive Rebounds figure is based on the fact that there are different offensive rebound %'s for 2-pointers, 3-pointers and FT's...plus, both UI's and MU's opponents have missed more shots than they have, so they expected number is higher. From the Expected Rebounds standpoint, Illinois is...only average. They have both grabbed and given up pretty much the exact number of expected offensive rebounds.
Missouri, on the other hand, has been slightly below average in defensive rebounds...but great in offensive rebounds. Strangely, Mizzou might actually have the rebounding edge here.
Projected score based on Points Per Minute: Mizzou 71, Illinois 68
Projected score based on Points Per Possession (and average possessions per game): Mizzou 70, Illinois 69

Missouri Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	17.83	0.69	17.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.8 SPG
Leo Lyons	14.50	0.62	16.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.5 SPG
Marcus Denmon	7.96	0.46	7.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 SPG
Zaire Taylor	7.44	0.30	4.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG
J.T. Tiller	7.21	0.34	6.4 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG
Matt Lawrence	7.17	0.38	9.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Miguel Paul	4.99	0.31	4.8 PPG, 2.4 APG, 1.2 RPG
Keith Ramsey	4.39	0.36	4.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.7 BPG
Kim English	4.00	0.32	6.9 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.0 APG
Laurence Bowers	3.78	0.41	3.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 BPG
Justin Safford	3.77	0.30	4.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jarrett Sutton	2.04	0.58	3.0 PPG
Steve Moore	1.45	0.26	1.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Michael Anderson Jr.	1.10	0.16	1.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG

Illinois Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
Chester Frazier	13.40	0.44	7.2 PPG, 6.6 APG, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Mike Davis	12.34	0.43	13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.8 SPG
Demetri McCamey	11.16	0.37	12.4 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.3 RPG
Trent Meachem	8.09	0.27	10.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 RPG
Mike Tisdale	5.56	0.25	10.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Dominique Keller	5.12	0.46	6.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Calvin Brock	3.44	0.20	5.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 APG
Jeff Jordan	2.19	0.20	1.4 PPG, 1.5 APG
Richard Semrau	1.21	0.09	2.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG
Bubba Chisholm	0.92	0.55	0.7 PPG, 1 Walk-on, 1 great name
Bill Cole	0.79	0.13	1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG
C.J. Jackson	0.25	0.11	1.2 PPG, 0.7 RPG
Alex Legion	-0.54	-0.03	6 pts, 2 reb, 3 TO, 2 PF in 18 minutes

Two things to note immediately: 1) Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are the two (statistically) best players on the court, and 2) While UI has four guys averaging in double-digits, it's Chester Frazier (7.2 PPG) who makes this team tick.
Foul trouble could come into play here. UI's Mike Tisdale averages 0.13 fouls per minute, as does Richard Semrau, while MU's Leo Lyons (0.10) and DeMarre Carrolle (0.08) have both improved in their body control from last year...but they still have lots of foul potential. And in the backcourt, JT Tiller is averaging 0.13 fouls per minute (0.16 against 'real teams'--USC, Cal, Xavier), and none of UI's major guards average higher than 0.08.
Another potential issue: depth. Illinois has three guys averaging 30 minutes per game and has another at 28.7. Meanwhile, Missouri only has four guys averaging as much as 20 minutes per game, with another six averaging 12 minutes or more. Plus, Laurence Bowers is starting to work his way into the rotation, meaning Mizzou has 11 guys who could play regularly. Illinois just got deeper with the addition of Alex Legion, meaning their rotation just went from 10 guys at 11 minutes per game or more, to 11, but Mizzou's "line change" could be pretty effective, as their bench has contributed much more.

Strength of Schedule

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou's SOS is #251 (it's gone down in a hurry), UI's is #237. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou's is #145, UI's is #80.

Strength of...Team

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou is currently the #8 team in the country. Illinois: #16. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou is #39, Illinois #26. Lucky for Mizzou, Ken Pomeroy says the RPI is dead. So there!

Jordans

Illinois 1, Missouri 0. A clear Illini advantage here.

Conference Superiority

The Big Ten has recently asserted itself in a major way, especially against the Big 12 in particular. The Big 11 is 4-0 versus the Big 12 this year and 13-4 over the past two seasons. Granted, this year's results have been from just two teams--Michigan State (who beat OSU and Texas) and Iowa (who beat ISU and KSU)--but still...looks bad. CONFERENCE PRIDE!!!

What does StatSheet.com have to say?

God bless StatSheet...a site that is virtually guaranteed to become my favorite website over the next three months. For Braggin' Rights, they have both a written and stat-heavy preview. Plus, all the StatSheety goodies. Point spread history? Yup. DeMarre Carroll vs Mike Davis comparison? Got it. Jarrett Sutton vs Bubba Chisholm? Bingo. (Sutton kicks Bubba's butt.) Fun (and slightly blinding) player impact charts? Hell yeah...

Stats by StatSheet.com

Prediction

This is just about as evenly-matched a Braggin' Rights game has been since at least about 2002 or 2003. This one should be fun, tense, annoying, exciting, etc. I don't know why I'm even making a prediction--in the current 8-game losing streak to Illinois, I'd have probably picked MU to win in at least 5-6 of those games, because I'm me--but the numbers give the slightest of edges to Missouri. Take strength of scheulde into account, and it basically becomes a coin toss. After landing on Heads for eight straight years, surely the coin will land on Tails this time, right? Missouri 70, Illinois 69.