SB Nation - Demetri McCamey

Western Michigan at Illinois Preview: inter-sport revenge game!

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 01:04:27 -0000

More photos » by Darrell Hoemann - AP

Sometimes when you are looking for a storyline for an otherwise unremarkable game you have to reach deep, in this case all the way back to last year's season/program killing loss to Western Michigan in Detroit. It was probably the game that eliminated any chances of the fighting football Ilini returning to a bowl.

Thus the fighting basketball Illini I am sure are filled with immense feelings of anger and revenge as they face the Western Michigan Football Broncos tomorrow.

But lets face it, this is not exactly a game the Illini are actually worried all that much about. As such, it is completely up to them whether or not the Illini will be victorious etc.

Last game against Vanderbilt, the Illini shot an astonishing 60% from the field, a percent they will not often achieve. When they do, of course, I would like to see a team that can beat them. The nerves for me and for others however, come from a few itchy problems that still haunt the Illini.

In what is the best/only real way I can see as quantifiable defense when adjusting for number of possessions, the Illini are still giving up a point per possession to opponents, which according to the Big Ten Geeks, is bad. We know why the defense is bad, because the only perimeter player with any experience at defense was the weakest perimeter player defensively last year.

Turnovers from the point guard, by which I mean Demetri McCamey. It seems to me too many of these TO's come when DMAC wants to push the ball down the court and makes what we would call an inadvisable pass. Not turnovers of carelessness but of "aggression" To his credit, that aggression has paid off many times in other areas. In general though, Demetri just needs to take a moment and not take any unnecessary chances.

Rebounds. Another problem that is basically just chronic to the system the Illini have had to run in recent years. Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale get their points from a few steps back from the rim, not underneath. As such, they aren't in the best position to get an offensive board. This isn't as big a deal when they can hit those 15 foot jumpers, which they both can. However, when you aren't hitting, the team has to play better defense to equalize matters, see point #1.

Last home game for about a month, so enjoy your Orange Krush once more before Christmas, tomorrow 1:30pm Central on the BTN.

Illini win over Vanderbilt 79-68, and look good doing it.

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 04:06:02 -0000

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Well, thats two top 25 opponents and two wins to show for it, it almost makes up for the two bad losses. Not quite yet perhaps, but it makes a statement to the national media that the Illini are still a factor in this conference.

The game started right for the Illini from the word go, as the Illini jumped out to a 9-0 lead, with the defense forcing Vandy to take bad shots and the offense making Vandy's zone look useless. Mike Tisdale being able to step out and shoot is a weapon that confuses and frustrates a lot of defenses, and it was key to the Illini's early scoring success.

On defense except for a few minor 3 minute lapses, the Illini have played one of their more solid games in that end. Ogilvy looked like he was the most effective player for the 'dores on the offensive end, but their shooters really never woke up like we had worried they would.

I would also like to highlight how damn good Jeff Jordan played tonight, making some very clutch shots, including a long 3 as the shot clock ran out. All the guards had a fine day against the Vandy defense, which seemed like as long as it wasn't Mike Davis taking the shot, they were willing to take their chances.

Mike Davis seemed to play the decoy all night, having very few points but a few assists and blocks to show for his minutes. If the other team wants to take Davis out of the game, clearly they can, but its going to leave Demetri McCamey, (23pts) D.J. Richardson (16 pts) and Tisdale (14 pts) all open to take their shots at will, that is fine by me.

The defense was much more I am sure to Bruce's liking tonight, running almost all man again (as always) and although it did worry me a bit when I saw Brandon Paul having to run off of a screen to pick his an back up. The freshmen will get better in straight man to man D, but it will take time and practice. Exhibit A is Demetri McCamey who was pretty much a defensive liability his freshman year but has become one of the more reliable defensive players on the team.

Speaking of Demetri he once again had one or two too many turnovers (6) but still is clearly the best option at running the offense because he is calmer cooler and more collected than any of the other options. And as our good friend the Donut King has pointed out, many of tonight's turnovers were TO's of aggression, which is in a sense a good thing, but are still in the end turnovers. That aggression of course comes along with his 23 points, so I will take it as an overall push.

Next game is Saturday at noon as the Illini host Western Michigan, then its winter break and the Illini go on the road for their neutral site games.

Periscope: Vanderbilt @ Illinois

KingJamesIV — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:12:20 -0000

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Let me paint a picture for you. Thursday, November 20th, 2008. Illinois enters Memorial Gym. Vanderbilt leads by 5 with 10 minutes to play. Demetri McCamey and Trent Meachem combine for 9 threes. Illinois hands Vanderbilt it's first loss of the season.

The Illinois game serves as a pretty good nutshell of the Commodores 2009 season. In a year when Vandy had 5 freshmen average significant minutes (2 being starters), they couldn't handle adversity and often withered down the stretch.

What a difference a year makes. The 2010 Vanderbilt team seems to thrive when facing adversity. Though they still haven't put together a complete game offensively, they are winning in the trenches.

The Illini 2010 stats are fairly impressive, until you really start to look at their schedule. The toughest team they've played so far has been Clemson, a game they won in which Clemson shamefully gave away its 23 point lead. Clemson and Vandy are pretty similar in terms of offensive and defensive efficiencies. According to Ken Pomeroy, Clemson's offensive efficiency is 110.9. Vanderbilt's is 111.9. Clemson's defensive efficiency is 87.3. Vanderbilt's is 88.9. Clemson is the only team Illinois has faced thus far with an offensive efficiency above 110. Vandy has already faced St. Mary's (OffEff 117.1 - @ McKeon Pavilion no less) and Missouri (OffEff 114.6). The Illini's offensive efficiency is 110.9. In fact, excluding Chaminade (game doesn't count in these numbers) Vandy has yet to face a team with an offensive efficiency below 100. Illinois has faced three below 90.

Despite the weak offensive opponents, the Illini defensive efficiency is a mediocre 97.1. On the other hand, Vanderbilt's defensive efficiency is a stout 88.9, especially when you take into consideration the solid offensive teams Vanderbilt has faced.

Looking at the defenses each team has faced, half of Illinois' opponents have defensive efficiencies above 100 (not good - this is a measure of points scored per 100 possessions). Vanderbilt has only faced 1 team with a defensive efficiency over 100. Considering the stringent defenses, Vanderbilt's offense efficiency is all the more impressive.

Here is the breakdown of all these numbers (all taken from Ken Pomeroy):

TSN Preview

Strong defense has been key to Illinois' success thus far, as the team has been able to limit opponents to 65.6 ppg on 40.6 percent shooting from the field. The Illini are also outrebounding foes by nearly seven boards per contest, and they are racking up 79.2 ppg. Mike Davis is one of five double- digit scorers for Illinois, as he is generating 13.6 ppg and 10.1 rpg. Demetri McCamey provides 12.6 ppg, and Brandon Paul checks in with 12.3 ppg. Mike Tisdale (10.9 ppg) and D.J. Richardson (10.6 ppg) round out the balanced Illinois attack. In Saturday's triumph over Boise State, all five starters reached double figures in scoring, paced by McCamey's 23-point outburst. The Illini shot 59.3 percent from the floor in the second half to hold off the Broncos.

In what figures to be a close game from start to finish, give a narrow edge to the home team. The balance of the Illini at the offensive end will be the difference.

Statistical Breakdown:

Commodore Keys

Come to Play - Two weeks ago after Vandy was first ranked in the polls, they laid an egg against Cincinnati. For whatever reason, they didn't bring the effort and intensity that you need to win when you have a target on your back. As the team hopefully learned, you have to take advantage of the extra coverage and media attention that a Top 25 ranking affords.
Limit Turnovers - The team is clearly very good at scoring the ball when they don't turn it over. Although they may not be scoring "pretty", opposing teams are having lots of trouble stopping Vandy from putting the ball through the hoop. You don't win on the road in a hostile environment without taking care of the ball. It stands to reason that Coach Weber has probably been focusing on team defense in practices lately. The last thing the Commodores want is to help build the Illini's defensive confidence by giving up a bunch of early, careless turnovers.
Rebound Like You Want It - When this team puts forth a full effort on the boards, they've been absolutely dominating. They were a good rebounding team last season, so I'm hopeful that the poor numbers early in the season were a reflection of A.J. Ogilvy still working his way back from the concussion and from lack of focus. Limiting second chance points from offensive boards is particularly important. I want to see this team continue to win the offensive rebounding margin.

Jermaine Beal really had a poor game against DePaul on Saturday. Considering they Illini are relying pretty heavily on some freshman guards, it will be imperative for Jermaine to play his game. Foul trouble was the biggest problem for him on Saturday, so I don't see why he won't return to form against Illinois.

One other thing I would like to see tonight would be Jeffery Taylor sniping some lazy freshman passes between those guards, giving Vandy some easy transition dunks. He's going to draw the assignment on one of them, most likely Brandon Paul. Showcase yourself, Jeff.

John Jenkins Update:

Apparently John practiced yesterday prior to the team leaving for Illinois. Hopefully he will be able to play without much trouble from any lingering pain.

Gameday Links:

Vanderbilt's top scorer also talks good game | The Tennessean

"I grew up bilingual," Taylor said. "And usually if you live in Europe you learn the neighboring languages, so I know Danish and Norwegian. They're kind of similar. "Then I know a little Bosnian, Yugoslavian, Serbian … and bits and pieces of other languages I picked up along the way. I have a lot of Bosnian friends in Sweden that were refugees from the war down there." Taylor was even able to surprise Lipscomb junior Adnan Hodzic, a Bosnian native, with a conversion in his native language before their Nov. 16 game at Memorial Gym.

Ogilvy earns SEC weekly award with eye-opening performances | Nashville City Paper

Ogilvy had team-highs of 13 points and seven rebounds last season against Illinois, a game the Commodores lost 69-63. "They’re good, and they’re extremely well-coached," Stallings said of Illinois. "… They’ve got good players, and they have three guys we played a lot against last year with a couple freshmen who are outstanding players. "… We’ll have to be real solid and real tight if we want to get done there what we want to get done."

Coach Bruce Weber emphasizes Illinois needs to play better defense | chicagotribune.com

A man out of position here, a misguided steal attempt there and a team that still is trying to jell after losing its defensive leader from a year ago. Put it all together and you get a defensive output like the one Illinois had in its closer-than-it-should-have-been 84-77 victory Saturday night over Boise State.

VSL Gets You Ready: Vanderbilt Travels to Champaign | Vanderbilt Sports Line

Preview: Vanderbilt - Illinois | Dore Posts

Previewing Vanderbilt at Illinois | VandySports.com (Rivals - Premium)

Scouting Report: Illinois | VandyMania.com (Scout - Premium)

Check out Hail to the Orange for their take on this important Big Ten/SEC Matchup.

As always, post your predictions below and make sure to head over to Stat-King to vote on who you think will be the best performing Commodore against the Fighting Illini. Also, stop by our open game thread which opens an hour before tipoff.

Poll

Vanderbilt Commodores (+4) @ Illinois Fighting Illini -- Who wins?

Vanderbilt by 5 or more

4 votes

Vanderbilt by 4 or less

5 votes

Illinois by 4 or less

3 votes

Illinois by 5 or more

3 votes

15 votes | Poll has closed

Illini hold off Boise State 84-77, the quick post game

Joe Kutsunis — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 02:57:32 -0000

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As you no doubt just watched, the Illini survived the twin terrors of a Boise State team that can score quickly and a basketball game called by the most recognizable referee in College Basketball.

Some notes I would be remissed not to include in this first impressions post

Mike Davis was pretty effin' good tonight 12 rebounds (6 offensive) and 16 points record his fourth double-double of the season. Those points were also fairly crucial as he made several under some extreme contention and when the game was getting a little too close there at the end.
Demetri McCamey, although he had only 2 assists and 6 turnovers is still clearly the best suited player to run the offense right now. About 90% of the "oh god" moments came tonight when he was sitting on the bench. Besides that, he contributed 23 points to lead all scorers, you know thats all.
Brandon Paul has gotten most of the praise and press of the two starting freshmen so far this season, but I want to point out D.J. Richardson tonight. He has saved alot of possessions from the crapper with his 3 point shot, and tonight's 14 points were evidence of that.
Mike Tisdale's free throws, we must always be thankful when a big man makes the free throws.
Lord help Bill Cole, who really worked his ass off tonight spelling Mike Tisdale early, and fouling out for his efforts. He played much better than his stat sheet will tell you.

Fighting Illini & Boise State preview, no time for a step back now.

Joe Kutsunis — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 19:50:31 -0000

More photos » by Brett Flashnick - AP

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Mike Davis was right when he said that the Illini would have to steal two games that they were not supposed to win, the game against a ranked Clemson at LittleJohn was just such a game. A stolen win against a Gonzaga or another highly respected opponent would make up completely for Vegas.

But, this also means the Illini cannot drop anymore games to less than stellar out of conference opponents. The Illini are still 5-2 with losses to not so great teams; losing tonight to a Boise State would put the Illini exactly back where they were on Tuesday night, with a very grim record heading into Conference play. We should also not forget that counting the first half of Clemson and the second half of utah, the Illini had a streak of 4 straight halves of absolutely awful basketball.

As amazing as it was when Demetri came back into the game on Wednesday, we saw just how terrible this team can be without him around to run the offense. Demetri is going to have to stay out of foul trouble for the rest of the year, because he has become absolutely indispensable to the success of this team.

It has taken some time but Tisdale has finally come out of his shell and his playing like the scoring threat that we knew from last year. He not only scored the key points against Clemson in the closing minute, but also came away with the biggest block of the season, shutting the door on Clemson's chances to take the Illini into overtime.

Mike Davis too showed up and in a big way in the second half of Clemson. His shot is about as automatic as I have ever seen right now, but he is going to be relied upon all year as the primary rebounder for this team, if he doesn't show up inside, there is no one really that can pick up the slack.

Lastly the freshmen, this team's unknown factor. D.J. and Brandon have shown the brightest when the team is running at full speed, and when they don't have to make decisions on offense. Brandon Paul has proven that when you get a Mr Basketball from the state of Illinois on your team, you have good things to look forward to. Both of these guys played unbelievably in the second half, but were frighteningly dangerous with their hands on the ball under a full court press. The team didn't break its funk until DMAC was able to provide some stability coming down the court. Richardson and Paul are the greatest beneficiaries of the well run motion offense, and if this team has the time and poise to set them up, these freshmen are going to continue to look very good.

Because that is the biggest problem it seems for the Illini, turning the ball over, credit some of it to youth of the freshmen but some to the inability of many of the upperclassmen to react to one of their team mates being in trouble with the ball. It was their undoing in all of their troubled periods this season thus far and will more than likely be their weakness all season. When taking care of the ball, this team will be scary good this season, when not, as we have already seen, they can lose to anyone.

Oh, and we are playing Boise tonight.

The greatest Illini comeback ever. Illini upset Clemson 76-74

Joe Kutsunis — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:49:15 -0000

More photos » by Brett Flashnick - AP

13 days ago: Illinois forward Mike Davis, back, the leading scorer, is congratulated by teammates Dominique Keller, left and Bill Cole, right, after Illinois' 76-74 victory over Clemson in an NCAA college basketball game, Wednesday, Dec. 2, 2009, at Littlejohn Colliseum, in Clemson, S.C. (AP Photo/Brett Flashnick)

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Oh what is there is there to be said about this game? Other than of course that this was the greatest comeback for an Illinois team ever, that it was as improbable of a comeback as there could be and that I have not had this much fun watching a basketball since Arizona in 2005.

I cannot stress enough just how bad the Illini looked in the first half. With Demetri sitting on the bench with fouls in the first half, the freshmen wilted under the pressure of Clemson. The Illini seemed to turn the ball over on their end every trip down the court, and give up a foul on every defensive stand. Bad passes, offense not getting set, and a lazy defense giving up long 3's.

Then it all switched around, the key being Demetri McCamey coming back into the game. Although the stat line only shows 7 assists, Demetri provided the leadership that carried the Illini back into this game. He had poise under the pressure and was able to break the Clemson defense down with his skillful passing.

DMAC provided the grit and leadership, Brandon Paul and Mike Davis provided the fireworks, as each went over 20 points on the night. Davis always seemed to be on the money from inside the arc, and Paul, well he only made some of the most acrobatic and amazing drives to the basket I have seen from an Illini in some time.

D.J. Richardson and Mike Tisdale, once they had their feet back under them came to life in the second half, providing 14 and 12 points respectively. Tisdale even had what has to be the slowest ball fake and drive I have ever seen, the basket that would prove to be the game winner.

A last note. I am very impressed with the way that Bruce switched to a zone in the second half, something he is loathe to do, and even more impressed that the Illini took to it without thinking twice. Bruce does not run zone, ever. But tonight that tough zone may have been the key to the Illini pulling this one out, as they held the Tigers to 20 points less in the second half than the first.

Good game guys, and thank you for being the victory that would prove decisive in delivering the Big Ten their first Challenge title. Maybe now we can give the Midwest a little round ball cred?

Illinois at Clemson:No pressure guys, right?

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 23:11:36 -0000

More photos » by Laura Rauch - AP

17 days ago: Illinois' Brandon Paul is fouled by Bradley's Anthony Thompson during an NCAA college basketball game at the Las Vegas Invitational in Las Vegas on Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009. Bradley defeated Illinois 72-68. (AP Photo/Laura Rauch)

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So, in the midst of a two game losing streak, having only made their first trip out of the Assembly Hall and losing to an in state school that people like me think have no business even hanging with the Illini, our beloved team must travel to one of the most hostile environments in the ACC, potentially with the entire Big Ten ACC Challenge hanging in the balance.

Good thing we don't need this game to save face from over the weekend right? You know this game has me nervous, especially the way our freshmen vanished in the last two games. What this team could use is a home game right about now, not its first test against a nationally ranked opponent. Then again, maybe the competition will bring out the best in the freshmen, along the same lines that Demetri stepped up against Indiana and Purdue two years ago. The Illini need production from their guards, and when two of those guards are freshmen who have suddenly vanished from the box score your scoring options look less than optimal.

The Illini are not going to enjoy the dramatic size and talent advantage that they have in the last few games, so guard play is going to be key. The Illini need to focus especially on what has been their undoing in the last two losses, turnovers and second half defense. i know the team looked ragged in the second half against Bradley, that is because its tough to get your second line players off the bench when you can't pull away so much as 5 points. The starters are going to have to score or they are going to have to really really buckle down on defense. Even so, I think the game will be close. Last year's game ended much like the last two games, a closing moments possession that proved to be the undoing for the Illini, hopefully this time the Illini can come actually close things out.

tip is at 6:15 central, ESPN

Big Ten / ACC Challenge - can the B10 finally win the challenge?

GopherNation — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:22:32 -0000

We all know that the ACC has dominated this "challenge" going a perfect 10-0 through the challenge's 10 year history. The Big Ten is back to being a heavyweight this year. The question is, are they good enough to finally beat the ACC head-to-head? The strength and depth of each conference is put to the test and each and every year the ACC wins. It becomes harder and harder to come up with appropriate excuses as to why the Big Ten is still better/deeper despite being unable to win more than they lose in this "challenge".

The conventional wisdom (especially in the Midwest) is that the Big Ten is arguably the best conference in the country and could go as deep as getting seven or eight into the NCAA Tournament. But unfortunately that may not translate into a B10/ACC Challenge win. I'll breakdown the match-ups in slightly greater detail below but here is how I see things playing out.

ACC Locks

Duke over Wisconsin
Maryland over Indiana
Virginia Tech over Iowa

Big Ten Locks

Purdue over Wake Forest
Ohio State over Florida State (admittedly this is closer than a lock)
Penn State over Virginia (only because it is over)

The Rest

Michigan State @ North Carolina
Minnesota @ Miami
Northwestern @ NC State
Illinois @ Clemson
Boston College @ Michigan

The Penn State win was huge and makes this much more winable. The Big Ten still needs to snag three of the toss-up five and four of those are on the road so...

Here is a brief look at each match-up with some key tempo-free stats.

Penn State @ Virginia - We kick off the Challenge with Talor Battle vs. Sylven Landesberg. And Battle won the battle, will it be enough for the Big Ten to win the war? (that analogy was awesome) Let's not waste time on this game since it is over.

Wake Forest @ Purdue - Here is a lock for the Big Ten and this may be the biggest lock of the entire challenge. Purdue is at home and so far has been the best looking team in the conference. Wake is 4-1 but has four meaningless wins and then a loss to William & Mary (that is one loss, not two).

	Wake Forest	Purdue
KenPom Rank	90	7
Off Eff	1.034	1.101
Def Eff	0.914	0.792
TO%	21.1%	17.7%
Off Reb %	42.2%	32.6%
Def Reb %	69.3%	71.7%

Wake rebounds on the offensive end of the floor very well but they tend to turn the ball over a bit too much, while Purdue forces turnovers to the tune of 28.3% of their opponents possessions. Wake is lead by Al-Farouq Aminu who is averaging 18.8 ppg and 11.2 rpg, he should be fun to watch but Purue's balance and overall efficiency should carry the Boilermakers to the home win here.

Northwestern @ NC State - NU is coming of a big win over the overrated Notre Dame Irish and NC State really hasn't played anybody yet. They did beat Auburn but that isn't a terribly impressive win. After the loss of Kevin Coble the Wildcats have turned to a the combo of Michael Thompson and John Shurna who are averaging a combined 32.7 ppg (48% of NU's offense), 9.4 rpg and 6.2 apg.

	Northwestern	NC State
KenPom Rank	87	46
Off Eff	1.086	1.068
Def Eff	0.978	0.895
TO%	18.4%	22.0%
Off Reb %	29.2%	35.2%
Def Reb %	64.1%	67.2%

This is one of the more interesting match-ups. The Wolfpack should be favored but Northwestern is a unique team to defend and could pose some problems for NC State. Northwestern has been pretty bad rebounding the ball this year and NC State has had their turnover problems. Whichever team can minimize their problem area the most will win this game. I'm calling the road upset here for Northwestern. I think they force just enough turnovers and then shoot their way to a win here.

Maryland @ Indiana -A lock for the ACC. Indiana is just too young, inexperienced and unimpressive to beat a decent but not great Maryland team. The Terps are on a two-game losing streak and really have not beaten anybody significant in this short season but I just don't see a way that Indiana pulls this one out. The Terps have four players averaging double-figures, three of whom are seniors. On the flip side Indiana is led by three players averaging 12 points or more per game but they include two freshman and a sophomore.

	Maryland	Indiana
KenPom Rank	51	189
Off Eff	1.028	0.945
Def Eff	0.868	0.966
TO%	15.2%	22.6%
Off Reb %	29.4%	33.6%
Def Reb %	66.3%	65.9%

This one will be a turnover fest for the Hoosiers. Maryland forces turnovers and Indiana loves to give it up. Add that to the fact that IU already struggles to score and you see why I have Maryland winning.

Michigan State @ North Carolina - My initial reaction is that this is another ACC win. The Tar Heels are just not a great match-up for Michigan State and the Spartans are on the road. Neither team has lived up to their preseason hype but the rematch of last year's NCAA final is the marquee match-up nonetheless.

	Michigan St	North Carolina
KenPom Rank	45	75
Off Eff	1.123	1.075
Def Eff	0.933	0.930
TO%	19.9%	22.8%
Off Reb %	43.4%	43.3%
Def Reb %	69.9%	69.2%

UNC has a turnover issue and they are not scoring nearly as efficiently as we are used to seeing Roy Williams team score. But Michigan State doesn't force many turnovers so I really don't expect that to be an issues. All other efficiency stats are virtually even. Both teams hold opponents to about .93 points per possession, both teams score right around 1.1 ppp and both teams rebound at near identical percentages. Whichever teams boxes out and keeps the Michigan State is probably a more experienced team but UNC is home and until the Spartans actually beat the Tar Heals I'm going with UNC.

Virginia Tech @ Iowa - I don't know that I need to spend much time on this one, Iowa is pretty bad this year.

	Virginia Tech	Iowa
KenPom Rank	145	207
Off Eff	0.915	0.955
Def Eff	0.886	0.995
TO%	16.3%	23.0%
Off Reb %	38.4%	32.6%
Def Reb %	69.3%	73.9%

On the surface and looking at the numbers I just don't see how Iowa gets this one done. Virginia Tech is also not very good and they struggle offensively more than Iowa does but I'd be surprised if they were to fall to the Hawkeyes.

Illinois @ Clemson - This might be the game I'm most looking forward to. Both teams are balanced with good inside/outside threats. Illinois is led by Demetri McCamey on the perimeter and Mike Davis on the interior. McCamey is averaging 12.7 ppg and 6.0 apg while Davis is averaging a double-double with 11.8 ppg and 10.0 rpg. For Clemson they are led by their senior forward Trevor Booker who is averaging 13.9 ppg and 8.7 rpg, but he's not alone as Tanner Smith is chipping in 11.6 ppg from the perimeter. These guys may not exactly guard each other but their match-ups should be a lot of fun to watch (especially if you like the color orange).

	Illinois	Clemson
KenPom Rank	83	10
Off Eff	1.089	1.125
Def Eff	0.967	0.843
TO%	15.6%	21.0%
Off Reb %	35.1%	39.6%
Def Reb %	74.7%	68.6%

Clemson is more efficient on offense but Illinois takes better care of the ball and their defensive rebounding is better. I want to go with Illinois here but after their losses to Bradley and Utah last week they make it really difficult to make that leap. Clemson will likely get the home W here.

Minnesota @ Miami - This is a Gopher blog so I'm going with a Gopher win. Miami is 7-0 but they have not played anybody of even relative significance.

	Minnesota	Miami
KenPom Rank	8	31
Off Eff	1.018	1.042
Def Eff	0.753	0.842
TO%	18.3%	26.5%
Off Reb %	31.2%	43.7%
Def Reb %	71.0%	71.4%

I think the numbers will back me up here. The Gopher offense struggles but this game comes down to defense and turnovers. Miami turns the ball over at an alarming rate and the Gophers offense thrives when the ball is given to them as much as the Hurricanes have been giving it up this year.

Boston College @ Michigan - A couple weeks ago I would have felt this was a lock for Michigan, but the Wolverines have struggled lately and this is going to be another tough match-up for them.

	Boston College	Michigan
KenPom Rank	82	130
Off Eff	1.174	1.034
Def Eff	1.032	0.979
TO%	18.3%	13.8%
Off Reb %	43.4%	29.9%
Def Reb %	70.7%	61.0%

Boston College is pretty efficient offensively but not so much on the defensive end. Michigan has really struggled with rebounding on both ends. The numbers support a BC win but when the lights get bright and when playing at home I expect Manny Harris to lead Michigan to a big win for the Big Ten. He can't do it alone but I think he'll be the catalyst.

Duke @ Wisconsin - I have great respect for Bo Ryan but Duke is just plain too good. I don't need to spend much time on this one. Wisconsin is experienced and it is at the Kohl Center but Duke is just too good.

	Duke	Wisconsin
KenPom Rank	3	50
Off Eff	1.188	1.096
Def Eff	0.809	0.920
TO%	15.5%	18.3%
Off Reb %	41.3%	32.2%
Def Reb %	67.6%	74.8%

The number support a Duke win. They rebound better, they take care of the ball better, they are are more efficient on both ends and they shoot better. This would be a huge shock if the Badgers were to pull this one out.

Florida State @ Ohio State - This also appears to be a really good match-up. Ohio State has been great in the early part of the season largely because Evan Turner has been outstanding. He is leading the Big Ten in rebounds (12.8) and assists (6.7). And also throwing in a decent 19.8 ppg which is third best in the league. He'll be the man the Seminoles should be most concerned about but they can't lose Jon Diebler who is making nearly four three-pointers per game and averaging 15.7 ppg. Florida State is athletic and lead by their own big time forward, Chris Singleton. He is averaging 12.3 ppg and 8.1 rpg. FSU is also big in the middle with Solomon Alabi and Xavier Gibson measuring out at 7-1 and 6-11 respectively.

	Florida St	Ohio St
KenPom Rank	17	25
Off Eff	0.992	1.132
Def Eff	0.758	0.895
TO%	26.4%	15.5%
Off Reb %	40.0%	34.1%
Def Reb %	68.4%	72.4%

Looking at the numbers FSU is very good defensively. They hold teams to just .758 points per possession which is third best in the country. They also hold teams to a 37.8 eFG% and block 22.9% of their opponents shots; both of which are also third best in the nation. This team will defend and it will be interesting to see if Turner, Diebler and Lighty can find some offense in this game. The Achilles heal of FSU is their turnover rate. When you give up the ball on 26.4% of your possessions you will allow good teams to stay in the game regardless of how good you are on defense. Ohio State is very good offensively scoring 1.132 pnts per possession and recording an eFG% of 59.5 (6th best in the country). If FSU continues to turn the ball over then I think OSU's offense will roll. Rebounding should be an important stat, but I think the key will be the turnovers. OSU wins this game at home.

After all of that (and one game in the books) I am seeing a Big Ten win, finally.

Big Ten -6 (PSU, Pur, Minn, OSU, Mich, NU)

ACC - 5 (Mary, Duke, UNC, VTech, Clem)

Illinois Utah Preview: I really wish I could watch this game.

Joe Kutsunis — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 19:05:23 -0000

I have probably been complaining about this too much, but as I will not be able to watch the Illini basketball game tonight in any form I am somewhat bitter (especially since our drubbing by Cincinnati in football is being nationally televised.)

But there are a few things I am looking forward to at least hearing on the radio tonight, even if I can see it.

More defensive lockdowns: the second half against Wofford was a thing of beauty holding them to only 25 second half points, I would of course prefer to see two halves that look like that.
Demetri McCamey running the offense, just like he has all year: He already leads the Big Ten in total assists, as well as keeping the Illini at the top of the league in Assists to TO ratio, oh also in FG %. I think the offense is in pretty good hands
Mike Davis, I think I will expect nothing less than a double-double from Mike from now on.

That doesn't seem like too much to ask, does it? Maybe, seeing as how the games don't exactly get any easier from this point on.

Here are the video highlights from the Wofford game on Tuesday

Illini survive first half scare, lock down Wofford in second half 78-64

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 17:25:26 -0000

More photos » by Darrell Hoemann - AP

Browse more photos »

I would like to take a moment to ask who ever does the ESPN.com college basketball highlights voice work, #32 on this team is Demetri McCamey, not McCarney or McCommie. Get it right, because he is having a pretty damn good season already, and last night's win over Wofford was his best game yet. DMAC had 21 points to lead all scorers and made a fantastic 3 as time expired in the first half to put the Illini up 3. He also had 4 boards and 4 assists (which is down from his usual average)

The Illini had trouble with Wofford in the first half, especially defense, as the Terrier screens opened up their perimeter shooters really well, and made the Illini pay for not keeping up, sinking 7 shots from behind the line in the first half. The Illini would fall behind by as much as 8 before they got a hold of themselves and brought it back to a tie in the closing minute of the first half, then of course the great shot by Demetri that put them up 3, 42-39

From there they really didn't look back, the defense played with much more intensity and discipline after halftime, and the scoring opened as the defense took Wofford out of their game, in the second half the Terriers would only score 25 points, and be held to only four 3's.

Its also worth noting that Tisdale made his first real scoring appearance last night with 12 points and 5 rebounds, still not the play we remember from last year, but much better than we have seen prior to this. Unfortunately Tis is still struggling to come down with boards more consistently, the bright side being that his defense is looking better.

Mike Davis recorded yet another double-double last night, with 16 points and 11 rebounds. This is getting to be so common place that I hardly even feel excited about this. I think we need to just come to a consensus that Mike Davis is really really good at basketball. Can we do that? Okay, good.

You can see that this game was the first real test of the year for the Illini just by looking at the box score, Bruce stuck with his starters much longer than he has had to in these other easy cupcake games, with only Brandon Paul not going over 30 minutes out of the starting 5. Paul was notably spelled by Jeff Jordan, possibly for his defense. Those 4 starters who played 30+ minutes combined for a total of 64 points, and the player with the most points off of the bench was Bill Cole with 4.

Clearly Bruce felt that he needed that play from his starters, and respected the talent of Wofford, who as we have admitted before took several good teams down to the wire. This Wofford team is better than I was willing to give them credit for, and they will score a huge upset sooner or later this season. Thankfully the Illini were not that team.

Final - 11.24.2009	1	2	Total
Wofford Terriers	39	25	64
Illinois Fighting Illini	42	36	78

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