SB Nation - Jamar Samuels

RPI WATCH: 12/09/09

BracketCat — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - AP

Now that's what I'm talkin' 'bout! With Curtis Kelly finally on board, this team can make a run in March. (AP Photo/Orlin Wagner)

Browse more photos »

Just for fun, I'm going to try something new today.

For those of you who don't visit the official site on a regular basis, I've included quick facts and quotes from the game after the jump, in addition to the latest RPIs and game results.

Just trying to add to the service here at BOTC. We want to be your one-stop shop, so to speak, for basketball information this season.

As for our competition, there only was good news last night. Dayton earned a really nice road win against a team with some cachet, and the Flyers steadily are working their way back toward the Top 25. In other A-10 action, obviously Xavier accommodated us nicely by losing. I'm sure the heat in their hotel rooms was just too high, though.

In the other game of note, Texas Tech survived what I thought for sure was a trap game at TCU. I was wondering how the Red Raiders would handle being ranked for the first time since 2005, but they overcame a halftime deficit to notch a nice road win. It's their best start in 80 years.

That said, I'm still a little bearish on Tech, since their only good win came at home, in overtime, over an overrated (man, that's a lot of "overs" in one sentence...) Washington team, and they haven't yet left the state of Texas to play a game. It certainly does look like they'll finish better than ninth or 10th, though.

Current Kansas State Record = 8-1

Current Kansas State RPI = 11

Current Kansas State SOS = 15

Great Wins (RPI 1-50) = Loyola, Dayton

Solid Wins (RPI 51-100) = IUPUI, Xavier

Bad Losses (RPI 100 or greater) = none

Loyola (5-2, 1-1) | RPI = 30
Western Illinois (3-5, 0-2) | RPI = 301
Boston (3-6) | RPI = 156
Ole Miss (7-1) | RPI = 18
Dayton (6-2) | RPI = 36: Win at George Mason (56-55)
IUPUI (7-2, 2-0) | RPI = 79
FHSU (6-1)
Washington State (6-2) | RPI = 153
Xavier (5-3) | RPI = 68: Loss at Kansas State (71-56)
No. 24 UNLV (7-0) | RPI = 12
Alabama (6-2) | RPI = 82
UAPB (0-6) | RPI = 273
Cleveland State (3-6, 0-2) | RPI = 222
South Dakota (5-3) | RPI = 143
Missouri (5-2) | RPI = 92
No. 16 Texas A&M (8-1) | RPI = 21
Colorado (6-3) | RPI = 249
No. 2 Texas (7-0) | RPI = 3
Oklahoma State (7-1) | RPI = 26
Baylor (7-1) | RPI = 105
No. 1 Kansas (7-0) | RPI = 39
Nebraska (5-2) | RPI = 112
Iowa State (6-3) | RPI = 187
Oklahoma (5-3) | RPI = 240
No. 23 Texas Tech (9-0) | RPI = 18: Win at TCU (80-70)

Xavier at Kansas State: Game Notes

Kansas State moved to 3-4 all-time against Xavier, including 2-0 at home... The Wildcats moved to 8-1 on the season, marking the first time since the 2004-05 season the Wildcats started a season 8-1... The Wildcats have now won 31 of their last 32 games at Bramlage Coliseum in the month of December dating back to the 2002-03 season, including 19 consecutive home wins since December 30, 2004... Kansas State moved to 251-88 (.740) all-time in Bramlage Coliseum... The paid attendance was a sold out 12,528.
The Wildcats' starting lineup Saturday night was junior guard Jacob Pullen, senior guard Denis Clemente, junior forward Dominique Sutton, junior forward Curtis Kelly and freshman forward Wally Judge... It marks the second time this season the team has used this starting combination... Pullen has now started in 43 straight games for the Wildcats, extending his streak as the team's leader in most consecutive games played to 76.
K-State led Xavier at the half, 30-20, marking the fifth consecutive contest the Wildcats have led after the first period... The Wildcats are 8-0 this season when leading their opponent at the half... The 20 points scored by the Musketeers in the opening half were the fewest points scored in the first half by a K-State opponent this season since Western Illinois also scored 20 on November 15th... Curtis Kelly led all scorers with 10 points at the break.
The Wildcats dominated the boards Tuesday night out-rebounding the Musketeers 46-33... K-State held Xavier to just eight rebounds in the first frame while pulling down 27 of its own.
The Wildcats defense held the Musketeers to just 29.4-percent (15-for-51) shooting from the field on Tuesday night, while pressuring them into 13 turnovers... It marks the third contest this season the Wildcats have held an opponent to under 30-percent shooting.
Jacob Pullen led the Wildcats in scoring on Tuesday night with 16 points, marking the 16th time in his career he has led the team in scoring... The Wildcats moved to 12-4 all-time when Pullen leads the team in scoring... He also recorded three assists and one steal in the contest.
Curtis Kelly added 15 points and a team-high nine rebounds while shooting 6-for-9 from the field... Kelly has now scored in double figures five times in his career.
In a career-high 19 minutes played, freshman Martavious Irving set a new career-high in scoring with eight points... He also moved the ball well dishing out three assists, while committing no turnovers.

What They Said

Head Coach Chris Mack
On tonight's performance...
"The rebounding margin at halftime was 27-8, and that really set the tone. Defensively we made stops, but unfortunately we could not get the defensive rebounds to end their possessions. Offensively I give K-State credit for pushing us out, a lot like Marquette did. We have talked the last couple of days about being strong with the ball, trying to get the ball below the foul line, but we could not do it and because of that we spent a ton of time in the first half without scoring any points."

On the play of Brad Redford...
"Brad shot the ball really well, which I expected him to do. He is one of the best shooters in the country, but he turned the ball over four times. It is one of those things where you have to be good in all areas. You don't have to be great, but you have to be good. One time he stepped on the sideline and another he threw the ball away right by our bench, which really hearts when you are in a possession game. Brad is a great kid and he did a really good job tonight, but the game just was not ours."

On halftime adjustments...
"We talked a lot about getting on the defensive glass. We were doing a really good job guarding their shooters, they were 1-for-9 from the three point line in the first half, but we could not secure defensive rebounds. I think it got a little bit better in the second half, but the tone was already set. They were foaming at the mouth to start the game, and we could not answer them."

Dante Jackson, Junior, Guard
On what coach said to the team after the game...
"We just have to give those guys credit; they out rebounded us in the first half. I really don't need to say much more than that. It came down to toughness, readiness, and I think our team, we weren't ready. They were ready, and they punched us in the mouth and just kept punching and punching and we kind of took it. It's kind of cliché because it happened to us before. Marquette did the same thing. I thought we responded and we didn't. It comes down to where this team wants to go."

On Jacob Pullen...
"I think he's a really good player. Really good player, I mean he's tough. He and Clemente both. They're going to win some games because of those two. They did a great job tonight and we wish those guys the best of luck."

What We Said

Head Coach Frank Martin
On how Jake and Denis didn't score much in the first half...
"The guys want to win. They do not care about that kind of stuff. I do not know why you guys get so wrapped up with who scores over who. You line up to play to win. You do not line up to make guys happy. That is meaningless. It is nothing about who responded to what Xavier tried to take away. The difference is that we have guys we can throw it to in the post and it relieves the pressure. Those two guys played a pretty good floor game considering Xavier pressures the heck out of the basketball. We were a little sluggish, a little slow, but we were mentally into it. Nine straight days of practicing and playing and we were not as crisp as we needed to be. But mentally we understood, so we stayed the course defensively in the first half which did not allow them to score either. Once the game continued to settle down and our guys did not fall down by themselves, the ball did not hit them in the head and we started passing and moving the ball a little bit, then we started making a couple of shots and it got us that little lead at halftime. That is the challenge on this basketball team. We have other parts. I do not go into halftime talking about who is scoring and who is not. I could care less about who has how many shots. We are trying to win the game."

On his team's play...
"We were pretty good until we broke that lead and then Xavier just put their heads down and just drove the ball. We got caught standing around and not guarding and we fouled too much in the second half and that is something we have to clean up."

On his progression of the younger guys...
"It is growth. When you are two, three weeks into your season you are still trying to get everyone to understand how you are trying to play. We have different pieces to the puzzle. We have a lot of youth. We have guys who are thirstier guys playing big minutes for us. It's going to take time. "

Junior Guard Jacob Pullen
On finally getting a win against Xavier...
"Yeah we got a win. It could have been prettier. If we would have made more shots, we could have run them out of (the gym). We ended up grinding one out, but we take what we can get. It is still a win and it still feels better than losing to them two years in a row."

On finding consistency...
"I think that, in a way, we don't have to rely on one person to score, but we take what we can get each night, whether it is Curtis (Kelly), Jamar (Samuels), Denis (Clemente) or me. Jordan (Henriquez-Roberts) made some good shots tonight. That is the type of thing that makes a team talented and deep, and it helps them make a deep run into March."

On the improvements made this week in practice ...
"Practice has been consistently good. We turned it up early today and other than that, it has been pretty consistent, as far as our effort. We had a few lackadaisical plays and a few offensive rebounds we gave up, but other than that I think the reason we won was just defense and rebounding the ball."

On the fan's support tonight...
"There is a blizzard out there tonight and we expected 10 people to show up. I would not have come to the game tonight if I wasn't playing. They could have watched it on TV like a lot of people did, but they came out and gave us that home-court advantage we needed tonight."

Sophomore Forward Jamar Samuels
On the teams' rebounding edge tonight ...
"Going into the game, our coaches said they (Xavier) were going to beat us up down there and we took that has motivation. We just came out and tried to get every single rebound that came off the rim."

RPI WATCH: 11/29/09

BracketCat — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 22:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Kansas State's Jacob Pullen (0) puts up a shot under pressure from IUPUI's Jon Avery, behind, during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game Saturday, Nov. 28, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. Pullen scored 25 points, leading Kansas State to a 70-57 win. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

A quick note about yesterday's game:

We've been a notoriously slow-starting team so far this season, but I was surprised to learn that our 40 first-half points Saturday were the most we have scored in the initial period all year. Considering how poor our offense looked at times against IUPUI's matchup zone, we must have done a few things right.

Also, these numbers were striking:

	Points	Minutes
Jacob Pullen	25	34
Dominique Sutton	14	34
Denis Clemente	12	35
Curtis Kelly	11	33
everyone else	8	11*

*average per player

We clearly missed Jamar Samuels yesterday. I have to think he would have contributed at least 10 points and probably would have helped us top IUPUI on the boards. Furthermore, we really missed his energy and ability to create on offense, as well as the matchup difficulties he presents on defense.

But the bottom line is some other players on this team need to step it up. Our five best players can't do it all, and there's simply no excuse for no other player on the team scoring more than two points. That won't cut it against teams such Xavier and UNLV.

Anyhow, you can see how our other opponents fared yesterday after the jump. I'll even give you a hint: One of them suffered a pretty nasty spider bite... (chortle) ... And another one picked up a huge quality win.

If for some reason you absolutely need to know up-to-date numbers, I get them here.

Current Kansas State RPI = 15

Current Kansas State SOS = 24

Great Wins (RPI 1-50) = Loyola, Dayton

Solid Wins (RPI 51-100) = IUPUI

Bad Losses (RPI 100 or greater) = none

Quick discussion: Our numbers have not been this high in November in a long, long time. As long as we win three of the next five, and at least nine in conference play, there is very little doubt in my mind we will be in the Big Dance. The difference between last year's schedule and this year's needs to be measured in units of astronomical distance.

Loyola (4-1) | RPI = 27: Win over St. Ambrose (81-42)
Western Illinois (3-3) | RPI = 207: Win over Greenville (84-46)
Boston (1-4) | RPI = 141
Ole Miss (4-1) | RPI = 76
Dayton (3-2) | RPI = 42: Win over Towson (74-69)
IUPUI (5-2) | RPI = 84: Loss to Kansas State (70-57)
Fort Hays State (3-0)
Washington State (6-0) | RPI = 146: Win over San Diego (93-56)
Xavier (4-1) | RPI = 106
UNLV (5-0) | RPI = 8: Win over No. 16 Louisville (76-71)
Alabama (3-2) | RPI = 91
UAPB (0-4) | RPI = 249
Cleveland State (3-4) | RPI = 191: Loss to Wichita State (69-54)
South Dakota (3-3) | RPI = 95: Win over Dana (100-65)
Missouri (4-1) | RPI = 96: Loss to Richmond (59-52)
Texas A&M (4-1) | RPI = 25
Colorado (4-2) | RPI = 127
No. 3 Texas (4-0) | RPI = 71
Oklahoma State (5-0) | RPI = 16
Baylor (5-1) | RPI = 113
No. 1 Kansas (5-0) | RPI = 52
Nebraska (3-1) | RPI = 126
Iowa State (6-1) | RPI = 161: Loss to Northwestern (67-65)
No. 25 Oklahoma (3-3) | RPI = 214: Win over Nicholls State (81-60)
Texas Tech (7-0) | RPI = 48: Win over Samford (74-53)

TB Jaws with the Ole Missians

BracketCat — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 00:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Will Rodney McGruder stay hot from behind the 3-point arc after torching the Boston Terriers for 20 points last night? (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Browse more photos »

Why, you ask, am I posting this if the answers are TB's?

Let's just say that I moonlight as a ghostwriter for slave wages and leave it at that.

Anyhow, our fearless leader imitated me in exchanging friendly questionnaires with the Fighting Colonel Sanders of Ole Miss, and the play-by-play follows after the jump.

Ole Miss blog: Denis Clemente is the go-to guy. Talk about how important he is to the team.

TB: He's the team's motor. When he's running smoothly, everything clicks. When he's missing, everything's a little choppier. This year, he has more weapons around him to help out, so even if he's a little off, we should still be able to get by. We're also looking forward to how his game will react to having legitimate low-post threats, something we haven't had in recent years. The hope is that it opens up the perimeter and driving lanes a little more.

OMb: Outside of Clemente, who are one or two other players that Ole Miss fans need to keep an eye on?

TB: One would be Jamar Samuels, a highlight reel waiting to happen. He tends to find his way to the rim for putbacks and such, and is starting to develop an outside game. I'll take a bit of a wild card on the other and say freshman Rodney McGruder. He's our sniper from the outside, and has connected on nine of his 12 3-point attempts this season.

OMb: The freshman that everyone has been talking about is Wally Judge. Just how good is he? And what other freshmen should make an impact?

TB: He's very good, but he's still adjusting to the college game a little bit. Right now, he's not getting a lot of minutes (12.7 per game), because a) he's not up to speed in Frank Martin's system, and b) we're pretty deep in the frontcourt. I have a feeling that when the light clicks on, he's going to go off.

OMb: What's your prediction for the final result?

TB: Given that I'm fairly optimistic about our basketball team, this may come as a surprise, but I think we lose this one tonight. Our players have not started well in any game this season, and have relied on depth to wear down vastly inferior opponents as the game wears on. We won't be able to do that to Ole Miss, and if we play poorly in the first half, we may be in too deep of a hole to make it up. Toward that end, this may serve as a "wake up" game for us. Right now, I'll say Ole Miss 68, K-State 64, and hope that I'm wrong.

And now for a change of possession...

TB: K-State and Ole Miss are two branches of the Bob Huggins coaching tree. How has Andy Kennedy been received in Oxford?

OMb: He's gotten nothing but support, from what I've seen, read and heard. It was understood when he took over that it would be a rebuilding job, but Kennedy is 64-39 at Ole Miss coming into today's game. Now, Kennedy finally has his own recruits coming into the program who can learn his system, which only bodes well for the future of Ole Miss basketball.

TB: It looks like Ole Miss starts a fairly small lineup. What do you expect the Rebels to do to counteract K-State's size advantage?

OMb: The Rebels almost certainly will look to keep the tempo at a high pace. With the small-ish lineup that Ole Miss will feature, it will allow for the guards to run the secondary break with guys like Murphy Holloway, Reginald Buckner and DeAundre Cranston filling the middle.

TB: Pardon my ignorance, but give us a player or two to keep an eye on in tonight's game.

OMb: First, Terrico White. He's a preseason First Team All-SEC selection after coming on as a freshman last season. White's one of the more athletically gifted players in the nation and if he develops into a more consistent jump shooter, watch out. The other guy who still is finding his legs is Chris Warren. Warren suffered a season-ending knee injury just 11 games into last season, after he came off a 2007-08 season in which he led the Rebels in scoring. If those two players are clicking, then Ole Miss' backcourt will be hard to contain.

TB: Zone defenses have been a thorn for Frank Martin's teams. Will Kennedy play zone, or is he strictly a man-to-man coach?

OMb: So far, it's strictly been man-to-man. You might notice at times, off made baskets, when Ole Miss will jump into a soft, 1-2-1-1 full-court press. It's really a soft press in that there is one, or two, trap options and if they can't force an early trap, the defense will fall back into a traditional man-to-man set.

TB: Give us one key to Ole Miss winning, and your prediction for the game.

OMb: There are two factors, for me: 1) free-throw shooting and 2) rebounding. If the Rebels are able to win the margin on the glass and hit their free throws, then I don't see why they can't win. That said, this is the biggest test of the season thus far for Ole Miss. Kansas State will feature size and athleticism that the Rebels haven't seen. Clearly, these are two teams that are poised to make an appearance in the NCAA Tournament, which makes this such a huge game early in the season. As for a prediction, I'll let a coin flip do the honors.

Friday Afternoon Big12Hoops.com Link Dump - 11.06.2009

big12hoops — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:00:26 -0000

The goal of the Friday Afternoon Big12Hoops.com Link Dump is to help you ease into the weekend by giving you things to occupy your time at work until the clock strikes 5pm.

Big 12 North

Colorado

Boulder Daily Camera - Long way pays off for CU Buffs assistant

Kansas

Lawrence Journal World - Senior Little ponders sitting out this season

Kansas St

Manhattan Mercury - Samuels ready for life on the outside

Iowa St

GoCyclones.com - Hot shooting sparks Cyclones to exhibition win

Missouri

Columbia Daily Tribune - New rule will change block calls

Nebraska

Lincoln Journal Star - Gillispie watches Doc's team practice

The former Texas A&M and Kentucky coach, a good friend of Nebraska coach Doc Sadler, had an NU roster and media guide at his side. Gillispie scribbled many notes on several sheets of a large notepad. Meanwhile, Sadler roamed the court, barking instructions to his players.

Big 12 South

Baylor

Baylor University Lariat - Freshman launches a new era (Lady Bears)

Oklahoma

Norman Transcript - Mason-Griffin and Gallon poised to make impact

Oklahoma St

Stillwater NewsPress - Cowboys teach, learn in first week

Texas

Austin American-Statesman - James impresses Davidson coach in scrimmage

Texas A&M

AggieSports.com - Aggie Roundup

Texas Tech

RedRaiders.com - Knight may redshirt one of Red Raider basketball’s two freshmen

Now though, Knight says Tech has made enough progress since last season that the Red Raiders may save a freshman for the next four years.

Non Big 12 Links

Associated Press - Ex-NBA referee Donaghy released from jail [NBA]

Follow all the World Series wrap up and celebration on SB Nation Yankees blog Pinstripe Alley [MLB]

ESPN.com - Giants ace Lincecum faces marijuana charges [MLB]

CBSSports.com - Week 9 Fantasy Football Rankings [Fantasy Football]

SB Nation - Rangers Looking to Add Forsberg [NHL]

BtB 2009-10 Big 12 Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 02:10:30 -0000

With six NCAA entrants, all of whom won at least a game in the Tournament, with two reaching the Elite Eight, the Big 12 had a pretty good 2008-09 season.

Thanks to some returning star power and some high-profile recruits, 2009-10 could be a banner year for the conference.

Sure the Griffin brothers left Oklahoma, but Willie Warren is ready to turn into a star. Chinemelu Elonu may have shocked everyone by going to the NBA, but Bryan Davis could be a more than capable replacement at Texas A&M. Their archrivals, Texas, lost J.J. Abrams, but Damion James is back, and he'll be joined by McDonald's All-American Avery Bradley and the highly-touted Jordan Hamilton.

And then there's Kansas, where Cole Alrdich and Sherron Collins decided to return, the Henry brothers are now on board, and a star recruit named Elijah Johnson may struggle to see the floor.

But that's just the start of what should be a very exciting year in the Big 12. This year's league should be similar to the Big Ten in that while the bottom teams--three in the case of the XII--don't stand much of a chance at all, the remainder of the squads all have somewhat legitimate NCAA hopes. More on each team's specific chances after the jump.

Let's first take a look at the 2008-09 Big 12 standings.

Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 4.2.2009 at 10:13 PM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Kansas Jayhawks	14	2	27	8
Oklahoma Sooners	13	3	30	6
Missouri Tigers	12	4	31	7
Texas A&M Aggies	9	7	24	10
Texas Longhorns	9	7	23	12
Oklahoma St. Cowboys	9	7	23	12
Kansas St. Wildcats	9	7	22	12
Nebraska Cornhuskers	8	8	18	13
Baylor Bears	5	11	24	15
Iowa St. Cyclones	4	12	15	17
Texas Tech Red Raiders	3	13	14	19
Colorado Buffaloes	1	15	9	22

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a team's name appears in red, click the link to visit the school's SBN site for further analysis throughout the season. You can also visit Big 12 Hoops for more info and analysis.

Colorado (last NCAA: 2003) During the offseason, Jeff Bzdelik talked to the Minnesota Timberwolves about a coaching role but ultimately remained in Boulder, where he's won less than one-third of the games he's coached. This year may not be much better. The backcourt will be the Buffaloes strength, as Cory Higgins averaged over 17 points and nearly 3 assists a game, Dwight Thorne III was the team's only other player to average in double-digits (12 ppg), and Australian point guard Nate Tomlinson had a solid freshman campaign (7.4 ppg, 3 apg). The returning frontcourt players don't offer much in terms of anything, as last year's Big 12 rebounding and defensive statistics will tell you, but another Aussie, 6-11 C Shane Harris-Tunks, and 6-7 JC transfer Marcus Relphorde may be the prescription for those woes. The Buffs travel to Maui this year, where they seem destined for the consolation bracket, as they open with Gonzaga.

Nebraska (last NCAA: 1998) The Huskers had a respectable season last time around, finishing at .500 in the Big 12 and earning an NIT invitation. Neither of those results is likely for Doc Sadler's club this year, as he lost four key players from that team, including leading scorers Ade Dagunduro (12.8 ppg) and Steve Harley (10.8 ppg). Point guard Cookie Miller (7.3 ppg, 3.6 apg) transferred to Miami (OH), leaving another hole. Guards Sek Henry (8 ppg) and Ryan Anderson (7.1 ppg) lead the returnees, who are joined by a busload of newcomers. The theme of the class is size. 6-11 Puerto Rican C Brian Diaz will play after a redshirt year, and he'll be joined by two German big men, 6-11 Christopher Niemann and 6-8 Christian Standhardinger. Sadler even picked up 6-8 Quincy Hankins-Cole from the JC ranks. He's joined by his Polk State College (FL) teammate, G Lance Jeter, who is expected to bring a new dimension to the backcourt. NU will play Tulsa in the Las Vegas Classic in December, then either Nevada or BYU.

Texas Tech (last NCAA: 2007) The Red Raiders won only 3 Big 12 games last year, and Pat Knight will be counting on five new arrivals, including three JC transfers, to help improve that total. Leading scorer John Roberson is back to lead the offense. Roberson averaged nearly 14 points and more than 6 assists a game last year, so he's a pretty good building block. Senior Nick Okorie averaged 11.3 points a contest, so the starting backcourt is pretty well set. Knight may even go to a three-guard set, as JC transfer David Tairu, a former teammate of Okorie, is expected to boost the Double-T's defense. Frosh Nick Davis could be a bench scoring threat, especially outside, where the graduated Alan Voskuil will be missed. In the frontcourt, Mike Singletary (12.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg), Trevor Cook (7.6 ppg, 3.4 rpg), and C Robert Lewandowski (6.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg) are all serviceable players. Two 6-6 JC transfers, Brad Reese and Theron Jenkins, will be expected to contribute immediately; however, as they give Knight some flexibility the current forwards don't offer. The Red Raiders will host the Duel in the Desert, a four-team round-robin tournament, where Oregon State figures to be their main opposition for the crown.

Baylor (last NCAA: 2008) The Bears had high hopes last year, and a 15-3 start, featuring a run to the 76 Classic final seemed to justify them. Then, the wheels came off completely. Baylor then dropped 10 of their next 12, a run that started with a six-game Big 12 losing streak. They nearly stole the league's auto bid, but fell to Missouri in the Big 12 final. Scott Drew's team then built on that momentum and reached the NIT final, which they lost to Penn State. Now Baylor will have to attempt to be more consistent without three of last year's prominent performers. Point guard Curtis Jerrells (16.3 ppg, 4,9 apg), the team's heart and soul is gone. So are F Kevin Rogers (12.76 ppg, 7.6 rpg) and guard Henry Dugat (9.4 ppg). Drew has a strong backcourt, even without Jerrells, as LaceDarius Dunn (15.7 ppg) and Tweety Carter (10.6 ppg) can both score, and Carter can do a decent job running the point (3.2 ppg). Expect freshman A.J. Walton to see some time running the offense as well. The arrival of Mark McLaughlin and Nolan Dennis means the Bears will be set at shooting guard for the next four years. Meanwhile, the frontcourt will be bolstered by 6-10 Michigan transfer Ekpe Udoh, who will be supported by returnees Quincy Acy, Josh Lomers, Anthony Jones, and Fred Ellis, none of whom averaged more than 5.4 a contest last year. Baylor plays in another tournament near a Disney park this year, featuring in the Old Spice Classic in Florida, where they'll open with Alabama.

Iowa State (last NCAA: 2005) Greg McDermott hasn't had much luck in his three seasons in Ames, but he must have felt like he found a four-leaf clover and horseshoe while a shooting star flew overhead when Craig Brackins announced he was foregoing NBA millions for at least one more season. Brackins very nearly averaged a double-double last year, scoring more than 20 a game and grabbing nearly 10 boards. While the Cyclones may not have enough besides him to challenge for a conference crown, his return makes them a serious postseason threat. ISU's biggest issue is scoring, as they ranked 10th in the league last year in offensive output, and Brackins was the only player to average in double-figures. Expect the two starting guards, Diante Garrett, who very nearly averaged 10 a game, and Lucca Staiger (8.2 ppg) to step up. 6-11 Canadian Jamie Vanderbeken (5.5 ppg) should also benefit from the attention opposition defenses will pay to Brackins. McDermott also has high hopes for his two JC transfers, 6-9 F LaRon Dendy and 6-6 Marquis Gilstrap. The Cyclones will play in the Chicago Invitational Challenge, facing St. Louis in the semifinal, then either Northwestern or Notre Dame.

Missouri (last NCAA: 2009) Considering that he was losing three starters to graduation, including his two leading scorers and rebounders, you couldn't have really blamed Mike Anderson if he left Columbia after reaching last year's West Regional final. Yet, Anderson spurned the advances of numerous suitors to stay at Mizzou. Now he has to figure out how to get more out of the many returnees on the roster, none of whom matched the contributions of the departed DeMarre Carroll (16.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg), Les Lyons (14.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg), or Matt Lawrence (9.2 ppg). The Tigers two leading returning scorers and rebounders are both in the backcourt, J.T. Tiller (8.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg) and Zaire Taylor (6.7 ppg, 3 rpg). Both also averaged more than 3 assists per game, so Anderson can rest assured that his offense will be run well. Missouri's Mr. Basketball from last year, Mike Dixon, Jr., is the point guard of the future. 6-6 Kim English averaged 6.5 points in only about 14 minutes per contest, so his numbers should increase significantly with more action, especially if he continues to shoot well from the perimeter. The frontcourt is a major concern, however, as none of the returnees even cracked 4 ppg or 3 rpg last year. Junior Justin Stafford did average 3.4 points in 9-plus minutes of action, so he could turn into a consistent performer. The fact 6-10 freshman Keith Dewitt couldn't get eligible for this season was a major blow to MU. The Tigers will play in the South Padre Invitational over Thanksgiving weekend, opening with CAA contender Old Dominion, then facing either Mississippi State or Richmond.

Oklahoma State (last NCAA: 2009) I saw the Cowboys drop two of three at the Old Spice Classic last year, and not look terribly good doing it. (They managed to beat Siena in the 7th/8th place game that was delayed by a leaky roof caused by a freak November thunderstorm.) In the end, Travis Ford's squad improved enough to win 9 league games, beat Tennessee in the NCAA tournament, and scare Pittsburgh in round two. This time around, Ford will have to run his four-guard offense without two key cogs, as point guard Byron Eaton (14.3 ppg, 5.7 apg, and 2.2 spg) and Terrel Harris (13.9 ppg, 1.7 spg) graduated. Swingman James Anderson (18.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg), a challenger for all-Big 12 honors, is back, as is Obi Muonelo (12.7 ppg, 7.2 rpg). Keiton Page (8.6 ppg), a sharpshooter who's 5-10 on a very good day, will see more action this time around. Eaton's spot at the point will probably be filled by a freshman--most likely Ray Penn. 6-6 Marshall Moses (7 ppg, 6.1 rpg) is the only frontcourt player to see significant time last year, so Kentucky transfer Matt Pilgrim will be asked to contribute immediately. The Cowboys will play in the Thanksgiving Las Vegas Invitational. Bradley will be their first opponent, followed by either Illinois or Utah.

Texas A&M (last NCAA: 2009) The Aggies easily knocked BYU out of the tournament for the second year in a row, part of one of the dreariest NCAA sessions I've ever experienced. Somehow, the Aggies are one of only six schools to win an NCAA game in each of the past four seasons, but that's a streak they may have trouble extending without C Chinemelu Elonu, who decided to go to the NBA, despite only averaging 9.8 ppg and 7.3 rpg, and swingman Josh Carter (13.8 ppg, 4.3 rpg). The good news for Mark Turgeon is that just about everyone else is back, led by 6-9 Bryan Davis (10.8 ppg, 6.5 apg), who should move over to the center spot., and point guard Donald Sloan (11.8 ppg, 3.2 apg). With sophomore Dash Harris averaging 2 assists per game, while seeing only 13 minutes a contest, Turgeon could even move Sloan off the point to give himself another scoring option. 6-7 freshman Khris Middleton could be a replacement for Carter. The fact that 6-9 Kourtney Roberson won't be eligible for the Aggies is a major blow to a thin frontcourt, however. A&M will have a good idea of how they'll fare nationally after their three games in Anaheim at the 76 Classic, where they open with Clemson.

Kansas State (last NCAA: 2008) The Wildcats lost four contributors after last season, most prominently F Darren Kent (9 ppg, 5.8 ppg). but hopes are high in Manhattan. The starting backcourt is highly-regarded, in a league full of highly-regarded backcourt performers. Denis Clemente and Jacob Pullen are the team's two leading scorers, averaging 15 and nearly 14 points per contest respectively, but both were equally adept at dishing the ball to their teammates, combining to average nearly 7 dimes a game. But the depth of the backcourt will be tested after Buchi Awaji and Fred Brown both left the program. Incoming freshmen Martavious Irving and Nick Russell will be expected to replace them. Frank Martin also expects big things from two other newcomers in the frontcourt, 6-9 F Wally Judge, another highly-touted recruit from the DC area and 6-8 UConn transfer Curtis Kelly. They'll join a unit led by returnees Jamar Samuels (8.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Dominique Sutton (7.5 ppg, 5.4 rpg). Martin will hope his team will gel enough for the Puerto Rico Tip-off, where the Wildcats open with Boston University.

Oklahoma (last NCAA: 2009) Look for the Sooners to play a completely different style this year, without Blake and Taylor Griffin manning the frontcourt. The Willie Warren-led (14.6 ppg, 3.2 apg) backcourt will be the focus this time around. Warren will have to take on more of a leadership role now that Blake Griffin and point guard Austin Johnson (8.6 ppg, 3.9 apg) is gone. Expect him to not spend as much time on the perimeter this season. Tony Crocker (9.6 ppg) and Cade Davis (4.7 ppg) will be expected to take on more of the scoring load as well. In the frontcourt, Orlando Allen and Ryan Wright averaged under 2 points a contest each in very limited action, so who knows if they can adequately fill in for the Griffins. 6-9 300 pound freshman Keith "Tiny" Gallon, a big man who can shoot the ball well will see a lot of action. The Sooners head north for Thanskgiving, where Jeff Capel's men will face at least San Diego and Houston in a six-team Great Alaska Shootout field.

Texas (last NCAA: 2009) Rick Barnes has few question marks this year. Unlike the Sooners, his frontcourt is pretty well set, thanks to the return of 6-7 swingman Damion James (15.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg). James will again team up with 6-6 Gary Johnson (10 ppg, 5.3 rpg) and 6-10 Dexter Pittman (10.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg) to form one of the most formidable frontcourts in the college game. While Texas has three returning guards who saw significant time last season, their roles will undoubtedly diminish because of three newcomers. 5-9 junior Jai Lucas will be eligible after sitting out last year after transferring from Florida. He'll run the offense. Lucas will be joined by two highly-regarded freshmen, 6-3 Avery Bradley and 6-7 swingman Jordan Hamilton, both of whom should challenge for more than just All-Freshman honors. The Longhorns will get to showcase their old and new talent at the CBE Classic in Kansas City, where tjhey should make the final, as they face rebuilding Iowa in the semifinals. Pittsburgh or Wichita State awaits them on night two.

Kansas (last NCAA: 2009) The Jayhawks fell five points short of a regional final appearance last year, but this time around such a result would be considered a major disappointment, when you consider all that Bill Self has coming back and coming in. Sherron Collins (18.9 ppg, 5 apg) and Cole Aldrich (14.9 ppg, 11.1 rpg) will obviously lead the way, but the Morris brothers, Marcus (7.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and Markieff (4.6 ppg. 4.4 rpg) should be better in their second go-round, as should Tyshawn Taylor, who nearly averaged 10 points a contest. 6-6 Xavier Henry, one of the top recruits in the country, will provide even more scoring punch to the backcourt. His brother C.J, a Memphis transfer, even came along for the ride. Another transfer, Jeff Withey, got to practice against Aldrich last year, so the 7-footer who left Arizona could turn into another force inside. In the early season, the Jayhawks will be tested by games against Memphis (in St. Louis), La Salle (in Kansas City); at UCLA, Temple, and Tennessee, and in Lawrence against California and Michigan.

As the Jayhawks are virtually everyone's preseason number 1, they'll hold the Big 12 auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. The conference should have a big presence in this year's tournament, so check back in then to see how many at-large bids I'm predicting at the start of the year.

To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-Big 12 team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-Big 12 Team

Player of the Year: Sherron Collins, 5-11 G, Sr. (Kansas)

Remainder of the Team
Cole Aldrich, 6-11 C, Jr. (Kansas)
Craig Brackins, 6-10 C, Jr. (Iowa State)
Damion James, 6-7 F, Sr. (Texas)
Willie Warren, 6-4 G, So. (Oklahoma)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the Big 12 this season?

Baylor

4 votes

Colorado

1 votes

Iowa State

2 votes

Kansas

31 votes

Kansas State

2 votes

Missouri

12 votes

Nebraska

1 votes

Oklahoma

3 votes

Oklahoma State

2 votes

Texas

74 votes

Texas A&M

3 votes

Texas Tech

1 votes

136 votes | Poll has closed

BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.09.09 (Postseason Awards Edition)

BracketCat — Mon, 09 Mar 2009 05:00:11 -0000

Big Twelve Conference Standings

(updated 3.8.2009 at 4:37 AM CST)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks	14	2	25	6
No. 2 seed Oklahoma Sooners	13	3	27	4
No. 3 seed Missouri Tigers	12	4	25	6
No. 4 seed Kansas State Wildcats	9	7	21	10
No. 5 seed Texas Longhorns	9	7	20	10
No. 6 seed Texas A&M Aggies	9	7	23	8
No. 7 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys	9	7	20	10
No. 8 seed Nebraska Cornhuskers	8	8	18	11
No. 9 seed Baylor Bears	5	11	17	13
No. 10 seed Iowa State Cyclones	4	12	15	16
No. 11 seed Texas Tech Red Raiders	3	13	13	18
No. 12 seed Colorado Buffaloes	1	15	9	21

It's Big 12 Tournament time! Let the games begin!

Big 12 Outlook will morph a bit this week. In this edition, I take a look at the overall predictive performance for the 2009 conference season and hand out my end-of-season awards. Later in the week, Outlook will project tournament outcomes based on current available information.

There will be a Big 12 Outlook posted every morning of the tournament, which I may or may not update throughout the day with game outcomes. It depends on how busy I am at work. However, I do hope the comments section on said entries will function as a live discussion for the BOTC community, much as our game threads do already.

	Seed	Record	RPI	Pomeroy	Sagarin	Streak	Best Win*	Worst Loss*	Coach
Kansas	1	14-2	8	10	10	W-1	Missouri	UMass	Bill Self
Oklahoma	2	13-3	4	18	8	W-1	Purdue	Arkansas	Jeff Capel
Missouri	3	12-4	11	11	12	L-1	Kansas	Nebraska	Mike Anderson
Kansas State	4	9-7	77	41	44	W-1	Missouri	Oregon	Frank Martin
Texas	5	9-7	36	27	26	L-1	UCLA	Arkansas	Rick Barnes
Texas A&M	6	9-7	29	45	41	W-6	Missouri	Baylor	Mark Turgeon
Oklahoma State	7	9-7	26	32	32	L-1	Texas	Baylor	Travis Ford
Nebraska	8	8-8	69	61	70	W-2	Missouri	UMBC	Doc Sadler
Baylor	9	5-11	75	64	63	L-2	Arizona State	Iowa State	Scott Drew
Iowa State	10	4-12	160	115	113	W-1	Houston	SDSU	Greg McDermott
Texas Tech	11	3-13	129	95	101	L-1	Kansas	Lamar	Pat Knight
Colorado	12	1-15	233	180	202	L-11	Iowa State	Montana State	Jeff Bzdelik

Note: As any of these numbers change, I will color-code them to indicate direction of change.
Team names that are colored indicate a change in seed.
(green = upward, red = downward)

*According to Pomeroy rating

Self-Evaluation

Big 12 Outlook went out with a semi-whimper, going 4-2 on the final Saturday. Missouri's loss, although perhaps predictable with an "eyeball test," even prevented Outlook from correctly predicting the final seed order, as Texas A&M jumped Oklahoma State in the 9-7 tie mess, while Missouri fell back below the Oklahoma team they beat earlier in the week.

The other whiff was thanks to the ever-underachieving Baylor Bears, who I swear must be responsible for at least 5 of my 22 incorrect picks. I have some more thoughts on this in my awards, but Scott Drew did a bang-up job of wasting a lot of good talent this season.

By the way, who do you think will win the tournament? Be sure to scroll to the bottom of the page and vote in my poll. As for Outlook's opinion on the 1st round outcomes, you'll have to wait until Wednesday morning for those predictions. Today is more about looking back at where we've been more than where we're going.

All told, Outlook correctly predicted the outcomes of 74 of the 96 conference games this season, for about 77 percent accuracy. I thus award myself a C+ for the season; not too shabby for my first attempt at this. My goal for next year, though, is 80 percent or better.

Perhaps more impressive were the correct predictions of Kansas State as the No. 4 seed as far back as mid-February, of Oklahoma State's eventual 6-game winning streak as far back as early February and of Missouri's undefeated home season as far back as mid-January.

Final pick record: 74-22 (.771)

Postseason Awards: The Botcies

The Big 12 Conference awarded its postseason honors to players and coaches today, as well as selecting its 1st, 2nd and 3rd all-conference teams and honorable mentions.

Well, I have some disagreements with their selections, which I think are worth debating, as well as some original awards of my own to hand out. Read on to see the winners of the inaugural Botcies... (Get it? BOTCies?)

Player of the Year

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

Uh, like I'm going to argue with this? My only wish is that Michael Beasley had stuck around so Blake could have actually had some competition for the award.

Defensive Players of the Year

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

With all due respect to J.T. Tiller and very little due respect to Cole Aldrich, there was no more dominating presence in the paint this season than Blake Griffin. Not one week went by where I didn't drop my jaw at one of his blocks on ESPN's Gym Gems.

I don't really have anything against Tiller; I just don't like giving out co-awards very much because I think it's sort of a cop-out. As for Aldrich, honoring him ignores the fact that he got away with a ton of uncalled fouls in the process of accruing those defensive statistics, solely because his jersey said "Kansas." I refuse to ignore that fact.

J.T. Tiller (Missouri)

EDIT: All right, after some reflection, I decided to make this a co-award after all. What changed my mind? Well, I noticed Tiller was a unanimous selection to the all-defensive team. I figured if the 11 coaches not named Mike Anderson were that impressed with his defensive prowess, why shouldn't I be?

Newcomer of the Year

Denis Clemente (Kansas State)

Great pick by the Big 12. That said, it's not like there were a ton of options. Mario Little was really the only other transfer that was hyped coming into the season, and he didn't even come close to posting the sort of numbers or having the sort of impact Denis had.

I would just like to add that I predicted this award for Denis last summer. I felt like he would have even more of an impact than DeMarre Carroll did last season, and I was right. If you're into handicapping, my early favorite for Newcomer in 2009-10 is Curtis Kelly.

Freshman of the Year

Willie Warren (Oklahoma)

Also a solid pick. I don't know if he's one-and-done caliber, but there's no denying the kid was damned impressive.

Wally Judge will challenge for this award next season, Jayhawks. Better start getting used to the idea now...

Sixth Man of the Year

Matt Lawrence (Missouri)

Well, the Big 12 got this one half right. Matt Lawrence is probably the scariest spot-up shooter in the league not named Alan Voskuil, who I suppose is disqualified from this award since he is a starter. When I think of Lawrence, I think, "Thank God he's finally a senior!" Paul Velander should get an honorable mention, though.

But LaceDarius Dunn? Are you kidding me? I watched this kid very carefully after he lit us up in Manhattan for approximately 137 points, and let me tell you - it was a fluke. Dunn couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in any game I watched Baylor play after that, and the fact that he was the Bears' second-leading scorer and 3-point leader should tell you exactly why they finished 5-11. What a political pick. Hell, Fred Brown deserves this award more than Dunn.

The Darnell Jackson "Most Improved Senior" Overachievement Award

Darren Kent (Kansas State)

The first of my "original" Botcies, this award is named for Darnell Jackson, the Kansas player who didn't do very much until his senior year, when he was probably the best overall post player on a national championship team. No one other than Jayhawk fans saw that one coming.

There is no more deserving recipient of the inaugural Darnell Jackson Award than Darren Kent. When he signed his LOI, many Wildcat fans asked, "Who is this guy?" When Bob Huggins was hired, they were sure he would transfer. When he tried to dribble as a sophomore, they snickered. When he came in for Michael Beasley, they groaned.

Then came his senior year, and the awkward caterpillar metamorphosed into a graceful butterfly. He snagged rebounds, he shot jumpers, he banked off the glass, he played rugged defense, he broke his nose and played through the blood and the pain, he twisted his ankle and screamed at the trainers because they didn't get it re-taped fast enough so he could get back in and help his team win. Other than Denis Clemente, no player was more important to the Wildcats this season. White Tiger, you may never have your jersey retired, but know that you will still be missed.

The Aaron Bruce "Most Regressed Senior" Underachievement Award

Connor Atchley (Texas)

This award is named for the former Baylor guard who stunned the league as a freshman and basically got worse every season of his career. His senior year was by far his least productive, as he became something of an afterthought to younger, more athletic guards like Curtis Jerrells, Henry Dugat, Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn.

I don't normally like to dump on players, but the degree to which Connor Atchley's game went to crap this season is so striking it deserves comment. After last season, he looked like he was poised for a breakout alongside talented posts like Damion James and Dexter Pittman, but he instead spent most of the season missing dunks, blowing defensive assignments and being out-shined by Gary Johnson and Clint Chapman. At times, he was almost an active liability to his team. Frankly, these descriptions are nice compared to some of the things I have seen Texas fans call him.

The Joey Graham "Tough Son of a Bitch" Awards

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma)

I know the concussion didn't look like much, but did you see how this guy played when he came back against Texas Tech? Throughout the season he was tripped, punched in the nuts, whacked in the face multiple times and generally beat up every damn game, but he never complained and he gave as good as he got. What a warrior.

Darren Kent (Kansas State)

Dude played through a broken nose with no mask at Ames. Enough said.

Coach of the Year

Mike Anderson (Missouri)

Yeah, yeah, Self's a great coach, but it's not like he replaced all those starters with scrubs, people. Kansas is a program that reloads with top talent, and the Jayhawks returned one of the best guards and the only true center in the league. They were picked 3rd and they finished 1st by virtue of a concussion.

It's my opinion that Mike Anderson got screwed. It's a simple matter of numbers: Missouri was picked 7th and finished 3rd, and but for an upset loss Saturday would have finished 2nd. They were one of only two teams to beat the conference champion. Missouri is not a program that reloads with top talent, and Anderson deserves Coach of the Year for making them play like a program that does.

Honorable mention goes to Frank Martin, who could have earned it outright had he finished 10-6 again. That Baylor loss still sticks in my craw, though. K-State was picked 8th and finished tied for 4th, which ties Missouri for the most overachievement this season.

Most Underachieving Coach of the Year

Scott Drew (Baylor)

Baylor lost only Aaron Bruce (who, as I pointed out earlier, was playing so poorly as a senior that he wasn't much of a loss) and returned the entire rest of its team, while adding talented freshman Quincy Acy. The Bears were picked to tie Kansas for 3rd and they finished 9th. They lost to Iowa State and Texas Tech. They lost 10 of their last 12 games. They will be lucky to receive a bid to the NIT.

Considering there is apparently quite a lot of grumbling among the other 11 coaching staffs that Baylor is still playing fast and loose with the rules, despite being only five years removed from one of the worst scandals in sports history, you would think such shady tactics and so many talented and experienced guards would produce more than a 5-11 record. Coach Drew, congratulations on one of the worst coaching jobs I have seen in a long time. I hope John Wall and Latavious Williams answer your next phone call with raucous peals of laughter.

All-Big 12 First Team


Craig Brackins	DeMarre Carroll	Denis Clemente	Sherron Collins	Blake Griffin
Iowa State	Missouri	Kansas State	Kansas	Oklahoma

I put a lot of thought into this, and I think it's justified. First, I don't think any one team deserves two entries on this list, not even the champions. Second, I truly don't think Aldrich is that special, and in a normal year for bigs in the Big 12 he wouldn't have the kind of numbers he had this season. He's a good player, but not a great player. That screams 2nd team to me.

Denis Clemente tied the game-high for points set by Michael Beasley (44). He led his team in scoring. He made clutch shots all season long. Most of all, when the team was reeling, he put them on his back and became the leader they needed. The team took on his personality. It was simply electric to watch.

Thus, the top four seeds are represented by their best player, and Brackins, the best pure talent in the league not named Griffin, rounds out the 1st team. Please note that four of the five play in the North - more ammo for North defenders against the ignorant national media.

All-Big 12 Second Team


A.J. Abrams	Cole Aldrich	Byron Eaton	Damion James	Willie Warren
Texas	Kansas	Oklahoma State	Texas	Oklahoma

Aldrich switches places with Clemente, and Eaton replaces Anderson. I watched Oklahoma State a lot this year, and although Anderson was definitely their top scorer, Eaton is why that team won six of its last seven and is poised for an NCAA berth under a first-year coach. He saved his best for last, and frankly should have been an honorable mention for the Darnell Jackson Award.

All-Big 12 Third Team


James Anderson	Josh Carter	Ade Dagunduro	Cory Higgins	Leo Lyons
Oklahoma State	Texas A&M	Nebraska	Colorado	Missouri

I basically agree with the Big 12 when you get this low, except that I don't think Jerrells warrants any kind of consideration. No one on that crappy team does, frankly.

My honorable mentions would go to Ryan Anderson (Nebraska), Chinemelu Elonu (Texas A&M), Taylor Griffin (Oklahoma), Gary Johnson (Texas), Keiton Page (Oklahoma State), Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), Tyshawn Taylor (Kansas), J.T. Tiller (Missouri) and Alan Voskuil (Texas Tech).

All-Big 12 Defensive Team


Cole Aldrich	Blake Griffin	Terrel Harris	Dominique Sutton	J.T. Tiller
Kansas	Oklahoma	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Missouri

I will admit that Sutton is a bit of a homer pick, but he's a defensive specialist who has proven his worth many times over. As a freshman, he shut down Brandon Rush by himself. I was a little surprised he didn't even get an honorable mention. Mason and Roland being on there sort of struck me as a "you're not really good enough to even get honorable mention All-Big 12, so we'll give you this cookie instead" consolation prize.

P.S. I thought about Darren Kent, too, since he pretty much shut down Craig Brackins whenever he was assigned to him, which is not something I have seen many players do this year, but I've seen Darren have a few too many defensive breakdowns to go through with it.

All-Big 12 Freshman Team


Quincy Acy	Keiton Page	Jamar Samuels	Tyshawn Taylor	Willie Warren
Baylor	Oklahoma State	Kansas State	Kansas	Oklahoma

I'm of the opinion that an All-Rookie team is weak. Clemente was already honored as Newcomer of the Year and 2nd Team by the Big 12, so he's covered. If Zaire Taylor wasn't good enough to be on the top three teams, why should he get a special spot here?

So, the Botcy policy will be to limit this team to true and redshirt freshmen. These are the future stars of the league, except maybe Warren, who may not be back next season.

Acy was the only Baylor player to truly impress me this season, so I included him to throw Baylor a bone after I have thoroughly dissed them in this entry up to this point. That said, it was a dead heat between him and Marcus Morris. Page is going to be a thorn in everyone's side for the next three years. Samuels - despite being unpolished, undersized, inexperienced and inconsistent - was K-State's 4th leading scorer, its blocks leader and one of its leading rebounders, as well as an instant energy guy off the bench. He will be a star player in the near future. Taylor was a pleasant surprise, and provided the Jayhawks the third scorer that Mario Little could never quite consistently be due to injuries.

Key

P - Ken Pomeroy's ratings (he predicts a probability outcome for each game remaining)
R - Random coin flip, generated online using a virtual U.S. quarter, Delaware design (heads = home team, tails = road team)
S - Jeff Sagarin's composite rankings (home court advantage is taken into account)

Obviously, R serves only as a tiebreaker, so it is only listed when there is a split between P and S.

Results are plugged into this wonderful tool to generate the predicted records and seed order.

Predicted Outcomes

01.10

3-2 (.600)

61 Tech
73 Baylor

67 I-State
75 Texas

61 Oklahoma
53 K-State

51 Missouri
56 Nebraska

61 A&M
72 O-State

01.12-01.14

4-1 (.800)

63 Texas
78 Oklahoma

71 K-State
87 Kansas

53 Nebraska
65 I-State

62 Colorado
107 Missouri

73 Baylor
84 A&M

01.17

6-0 (1.000)

92 O-State
98 Baylor (OT)

73 Kansas
56 Colorado

46 I-State
77 Missouri

51 K-State
73 Nebraska

69 Oklahoma
63 A&M

71 Texas
49 Tech

01.19-01.21

3-2 (.600)

53 A&M
73 Kansas

55 Colorado
63 Tech

83 Baylor
65 K-State

97 Missouri
95 O-State

61 Nebraska
72 Oklahoma

01.24

5-1 (.833)

77 K-State
75 Colorado (OT)

82 Kansas
67 I-State

86 Tech
97 Missouri

76 O-State
74 Nebraska (OT)

76 Baylor
95 Oklahoma

58 A&M
67 Texas

01.26-01.28

3-3 (.500)

89 Oklahoma
81 O-State

78 Texas
72 Baylor

49 I-State
55 Colorado

72 Missouri
88 K-State

68 Kansas
62 Nebraska

70 Tech
79 A&M

01.31

4-2 (.667)

78 Oklahoma
68 I-State

85 K-State
81 Texas (OT)

61 Colorado
66 Kansas

72 Baylor
89 Missouri

82 Nebraska
69 Tech

64 O-State
76 A&M

02.02-02.04

4-2 (.667)

75 Kansas
65 Baylor

50 I-State
65 K-State

55 Nebraska
53 Colorado

69 Missouri
65 Texas

80 Tech
81 O-State

71 A&M
77 Oklahoma

02.07

4-2 (.667)

72 Colorado
77 Oklahoma

82 Missouri
68 I-State

65 K-State
60 A&M

67 O-State
78 Kansas

55 Texas
58 Nebraska

76 Baylor
83 Tech

02.09-02.11

5-0 (1.000)

60 Kansas
62 Missouri

74 O-State
99 Texas

78 Oklahoma
63 Baylor

42 Colorado
70 I-State

73 Tech
85 K-State

02.14

6-0 (1.000)

68 A&M
72 Baylor

85 Texas
76 Colorado (OT)

67 I-State
86 O-State

85 Kansas
74 K-State

47 Nebraska
70 Missouri

74 Tech
95 Oklahoma

02.16-02.18

3-1 (.750)

66 Texas
81 A&M

55 I-State
72 Kansas

41 Colorado
46 Nebraska

92 O-State
82 Tech

02.21

6-0 (1.000)

66 Missouri
53 Colorado

50 K-State
46 I-State

53 Nebraska
70 Kansas

74 Baylor
84 O-State

79 A&M
73 Tech

68 Oklahoma
73 Texas

02.23-02.25

3-3 (.500)

87 Kansas
78 Oklahoma

62 Baylor
71 I-State

57 A&M
55 Nebraska

76 O-State
55 Colorado

74 K-State
94 Missouri

81 Tech
87 Texas

02.28-03.01

6-0 (1.000)

57 Colorado
75 Baylor

69 I-State
87 A&M

72 Nebraska
77 K-State

59 Texas
68 O-State

78 Oklahoma
63 Tech

65 Missouri
90 Kansas

03.02-03.04

5-1 (.833)

57 Baylor
73 Texas

71 K-State
77 O-State

72 A&M
66 Colorado

65 Kansas
84 Tech

64 Oklahoma
73 Missouri

61 I-State
77 Nebraska

03.07

4-2 (.667)

76 Tech
78 I-State

64 Colorado
76 K-State

73 Texas
83 Kansas

86 Missouri
96 A&M

66 Nebraska
62 Baylor

78 O-State
82 Oklahoma

Poll

Who do you think will win the 2009 Big 12 Tournament?

No. 1 Kansas

25 votes

No. 2 Oklahoma

38 votes

No. 3 Missouri

9 votes

No. 4 Kansas State

36 votes

No. 5 Texas

2 votes

No. 6 Texas A&M

1 votes

No. 7 Oklahoma State

0 votes

No. 8 Nebraska

2 votes

No. 9 Baylor

0 votes

No. 10 Iowa State

0 votes

No. 11 Texas Tech

0 votes

No. 12 Colorado

0 votes

113 votes | Poll has closed

Kansas State: Know Your Rival

Bill C. — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 14:00:12 -0000

Game 1 of the Keep Kansas From Winning the Conference Tour tips off tonight in Mizzou Arena, where Mizzou will play in its second revenge game of the year. The first one resulted in a 28-point road-to-home swing. Tonight's will need to result in at least a 17-point swing for Mizzou to move to Game 2 in Lawrence on Sunday.

vs Big 12
Kansas State: 7-5

	KSU	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.69	1.73
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.03	1.05
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.15	1.37
2-PT FG%	45.3%	46.4%
3-PT FG%	36.2%	40.7%
FT%	66.5%	70.7%
True Shooting %	50.4%	56.3%

	KSU	Opp
Assists	147	163
Steals	75	69
Turnovers	170	181
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.31	1.28

	KSU	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds	163	136
Offensive Rebounds	179	122
Difference	+16	-14

Here's why stats are so interesting and entertaining--this line right here tells you everything you need to know about Kansas State. They are a poor, poor shooting team that is occasionally careless with the ball, but they play solid pressure defense (BCI!) and crash the boards hard.
These Big 12 numbers should put into perspective just how far over their heads KSU played last time these teams met. Needless to say, KSU's Big 12 numbers are at least slightly dampened by a poor start to conference play, but regardless--62.5% true shooting %, 54.5% from 3-point range? Rare. If Mizzou holds KSU to its conference-play shooting averages, they should be in control of this game. If.
Mizzou will also have to shoot pretty well themselves, as they probably won't win the rebounding battle. Frank Martin has a team whose offensive talent is focused mostly on just 2-3 players, but the whole team rebounds well, especially the bench guys.

Stats by StatSheet.com

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
Denis Clemente (Jr)	15.05	0.46	17.2 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 3.3 APG
Jacob Pullen (So)	9.78	0.30	12.6 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 2.6 APG
Darren Kent (Sr)	9.03	0.36	9.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jamar Samuels (Fr)	8.75	0.43	7.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG
Fred Brown (So)	6.08	0.27	7.2 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.5 APG
Dominique Sutton (So)	5.73	0.26	5.9 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.0 APG
Luis Colon (Jr)	4.37	0.20	4.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG
Ron Anderson (So)	4.33	0.21	2.8 PPG, 4.3 RPG
Buchi Awaji (Jr)	3.47	0.45	2.3 PPG, 1.3 RPG
Chris Merriewether (Jr)	1.59	0.21	1.0 PPG, 2.1 RPG
Victor Ojeleye (Fr)	-0.35	-0.53	2 minutes
Justin Werner (Fr)	-0.53	-0.21	5 minutes

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

Denis Clemente is the patented "crazy guy in a fight." You don't really know what he's going to do, but you're not too enthusiastic about finding out. He might drop 40 on you, he might decide somebody's cheap-shotting him when they're not, he might be a game-changer, he might be a non-factor. No matter what, this will probably be a "Hey JT Tiller, I want to know what kind of chewing gum Mr. Clemente is chewing," situation.
Meanwhile, if you were to ask me where Jacob Pullen was from (and I didn't already know the answer), by looking at his stat line, I'd answer "Chicago" with no hesitation. He's got that Chicago game--lots of shots, low shooting %, decent assist numbers, lots of turnovers, lots of steals, big juevos--that we've seen in quite a few guys over the years (most recently Stefhon Hannah and Patrick Beverley). He'll shoot KSU into a game, and then shoot them out of it. He's not lacking in confidence, though, and KSU's identity is somewhat a reflection of his.
Jamar Samuels is an interesting freshman. He doesn't take a lot of shots (0.26 per minute), but he's efficient with the ball, and he'll be the best offensive rebounder on the court tonight. He averages 0.12 OR's per minute--for comparison, Mizzou's best in that category (Keith Ramsey) only averages 0.09.
KSU's front line--Kent and Colon--are rather offensively challenged (big men usually average in the 1.30-1.50 points per shot range--Kent averages 1.17, Colon 0.98), but they're very good at rebounding and muscling guys around. Though DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons both ended up with decent stats last time around, while the game was actually close Kent and Colon were neutralizing the two well enough for KSU's guards to get away with overplaying the ball against Zaire Taylor and J.T. Tiller, who combined for 8 turnovers.

Keys to the Game

Turnovers. Mizzou is a BCI team--it is very rare that they have more turnovers than their opponent, but led by the 8 from Tiller and Taylor, that's exactly what they encountered in Bramlage almost exactly a month ago. (The Tigers haven't lost for almost a month?? Damn!) KSU had a wonderful gameplan of getting into Mizzou's comfort zone before Mizzou could do the same. It worked in Manhattan, but it's much less likely to work a second time now that Mizzou knows it's coming.

It's Tiller/Taylor vs Clemente/Pullen, and whoever controls the ball better, wins.
The first 15 minutes. Average halftime score of a Mizzou loss: Opponents 38, Mizzou 26. Average halftime score of a Mizzou win: Mizzou 40, Opponents 29. Average score at the 15-minute mark of the last three Mizzou losses: Opponents 27, Mizzou 16. If you're going to strike Mizzou, strike early.
The 3-pointer. That's right, two of the three keys are the same as those from the Colorado game.

Mizzou's perimeter defense has been outstanding in conference play--opponents have only hit 66 of 215 3-pointers against them (30.7%). Without the first KSU game, that number falls to 28.0%. K-State hit 12 of 22 3-pointers at Bramlage (Jacob Pullen and Fred Brown: 10-for-14). They hit 9-of-12 during a stretch late in the first half and early in the second half, when the game was salted away.

There's no question that KSU has improved since the beginning of conference season, but the unmissable 3's were the main reason I called the trip to Bramlage "just one of those games." And that's fine if it was just one of those games...as long as it doesn't happen again. KSU makes 30% (or less) of their 3-pointers, Mizzou probably wins.

Prediction

I've got two conflicting feelings going on about this game. First, the game in Manhattan was more out of character for KSU than Mizzou. They're not a wonderful shooting team, but they couldn't miss that night, and Mizzou had an uncharacteristic number of turnovers. If both teams play an average game, Mizzou wins.

However, there's no question that K-State is a team that simply matches up very well with Mizzou. Some teams do, some don't...KSU does. They have confident, aggressive (and sometimes crazy) guards and a couple of strong bigs who can push DeMarre and Leo around a bit. While I think Mizzou will win this game--the revenge factor is strong, Mizzou plays extremely well at home, etc.--due to matchups things will probably be pretty tight (unless Pullen and Clemente hit an extremely cold stretch).

K-State hasn't played wonderfully since beating MU and Texas, back-to-back, in late-January to salvage their season. Pretty or not, though, they've continued to win. Overall, they've won 7 of 8 conference games and continue to fight for their NCAA Tourney lives. You never want to fight a desperate and crazy guy, and that's how KSU is looking right now. That said, Mizzou's depth and home court advantage are too much. Mizzou finally starts to pull away around the 6:00 or 8:00 mark of the second half and wins it, 79-71.

Poll

Biggest key for tonight?

Turnovers

27 votes

The first 15 minutes

23 votes

The 3-pointer

10 votes

Good Leo making an appearance

24 votes

Containing Denis Clemente

12 votes

96 votes | Poll has closed

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State (Again)

rockchalk — Sat, 14 Feb 2009 02:14:44 -0000

Here we go, the second go-around of a Kansas State preview. I won't go over the same sort of stuff, because we went over just about all of it here, the first K-State KenPom preview.

Opening Thoughts

Is it just me, or are you all rivalled-out, too? It's like we exuded all of our effort trying to take on our cousin, only to have our little brother come on and attack us while we're down. Except, unlike not all-that-long ago, little brother can fight, too. Sure, these Powercats aren't as good or dangerous as last year's team, with Michael Beasley and Billy Walker, but they are still scary. They've won six in a row, and are incredibly hard to slow down. Once they get running, they are dangerous enough to beat a lot of teams. A lot of teams. So, yeah, this isn't going to be too much fun, methinks. We're still recovering from that epic showdown with cousin, and now our dangerous little brother gets to take us on. Ugh. Plus, this is a huge game for lil' bro: with a win, K-State probably jumps to the right side of the bubble, considering they'd had won seven in a row including W's over Missouri, Texas and Kansas.

So, yeah, boo. Get past this game, though, and we should be 11-1 going into Norman. Yeah, that's the game that I wanna get up for. Not this one. It's a game we probably all should be getting up for, but we just can't. Or, at least, I can't. I'm too tired, too exhausted, too wiped out from MIssouri. I just hope our team isn't feeling the same way, or the Powercats'll wipe the floor.

Yeah, that would suck.

The rest of the abbreviated preview after the jump...

The Background

Entering our first matchup, K-State had NIT written all over it. Their non-con was incredibly barren, and it was agreed upon that it would take an awesome conference season to sneak into the NCAAs. And, after their expected L's to Boomer Sooner and in Lawrence, things didn't get any better. They got destroyed up in Lincoln (by 22), then came home and lost by 18 to a not-that-great Baylor squad. Yuck. At 0-4, their hopes of a good conference season were quickly sliding away. But then, in a game they had to have in the worst of ways, they were able to survive a last-second shot that would have tied the game in overtime against Colorado. They followed that up with a tremendous shooting performance and 17-point win against the Tiggers in Manhattan, then tripped down to Austin and upset the Longhorns in OT. Came home to narrowly escape the Cyclones, travelled down to College Station to take down the Aggies and, just on Wednesday, rushed out to an early lead against the Red Raiders and survived the comeback. Bam. An 0-4 start quickly turned into 6-4 in conference play, and an opportunity on Saturday to get on the right side of the bubble. Even if they lose tomorrow, they still figure to be in good shape. Every remaining game on the schedule, save a trip to Columbia, is entirely winnable. And if they lose tomorrow and lose to Missouri, they can still end up going 10-6 in conference play. That should be plenty good enough.

The Offense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (143rd) -- This is significantly worse than what they were coming into Allen Field House (106th), and is obviously a more accurate representation. They take plenty of stupid shots (particularly Denis Clemente), but when they're falling they are awesome offensively. Like, when their eFG% was 62.1% against Missouri, compared to their overall mark of 49.8%. What? So, let's all just hope they don't go ballistic again, and we shouldn't be too worried. They did only shoot 43% against us last time, though, so that's good.
Turnover % (120th) -- Nothing terribly special, nothing terrible, just well below average. We can turn them over a bunch; if so, we should win. If not, and they hold on to the ball, they have a chance.
Offensive Rebounding % (3rd) -- This is their strength of the entire team. They eat you up on the offensive glass. We actually did a pretty good job, overall, when we played 'em; only gave them 38% of their opportunities, compared to their 42% season average. They might be better at home, but I'm also positive that the Law Firm (Morris, Morris & Little) are much better than they were then. So, that should be something interesting to watch; to see the difference. With all of the shots they miss, as long as you don't let them get a billion second-chance points you should be OK.
FTA/FGA (54th) -- They shoot more free throws than most teams, particularly Jamar Sameuls, who draws the 11th most fouls per 40 minutes (7.2). Darren Kent and Ron Anderson both get fouled quite a bit, but not nearly as many as JamSam, or whatever the hell they call him.

Miscellaneous

As a team, despite getting there a bunch, they are godawful from the free throw line: 65%. Yuck. So, don't be too scared at them going to the FT line.

The Defense

Four Factors

Effective FG% (80th) -- Not exceptional, but they won't give you a boatload of open, good looks. We could really use some open threes actually falling, so please make 'em, Brady and Tyrel. We really, really could use some.
Turnover % (22nd) -- The real strength of their defense, they turn you over a bunch. Really, that's their entire defensive philosophy. They didn't turn us over much at all in Allen, and that played a large role in how we won. Whatever the case, just don't have another disastrous 27 turnover game like in Columbia. Say what you will, but that was the main reason we lost. That is just embarrassing. Don't let it happen again.
Offensive Rebounding % (106th) -- Again, this is where the Law Firm's improvement comes in to play. If they can be huge offensive contributors because of their second-chance points (particularly McMorris and Kieffer), we should be in great shape. If not, the pressure's on Cole and Sherron and open threes.
FTA/FGA (333rd) -- With how many turnovers they go for, this isn't all that surprising. However, this is just ridiculous. They foul you a shitload. In fact, on average, take your field goals attempted and divide by two, and that's how many freebies you shoot. Honestly. That is just ludicrous. So, make your throws, and we should be fine. It could be just as simple as that.

The Players

I didn't do it particularly well the first time, but I don't want to completely rehash the player-by-player previews. So, here are just some quick notes:

Guards -- The leaders of this team, the best players, all of that, are Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente. Together, the shoot more than 55% of the team's shots. That is ludicrous. Clemente is the better three-point shooter (39% to Pullen's 30%), but both still prefer to drive the ball into the lane. That's their game. But Tyshawn on Pullen, Sherron on Clemente and tell 'em both to keep them out of the lane and you should be OK. Pullen is the much better defender, so there's that. Oh, and then there is Fred Brown. Freddie Brown is the real three-point shooter on the team (45% on over 100 shots), so watch out for him.
Forwards -- The forwards are kind of under-the-radar types. Darren Kent, a.k.a the travelling machine, is pretty solid on the boards. He isn't terribly efficient on offense, though, so whatever. Ron Anderson, on the other hand, is a much better rebounder on both sides of the ball. Close to awesome, really. Moving out to the wing, you have the best athlete on the team, Dominique Sutton. Dominique is yet another slasher, and is highest on the teams in steal %. He can explode, but is also really inconsistent (a lot like Denis Clemente, really), so hopefully he doesn't get too crazy. The other key minute-earner at the forward slot is Jamar Samuels. I like JamSam as a player, another athletic specimen who is still developing as a player. Like we mentioned earlier, he gets fouled all of the time, so hopefully the Law Firm can keep their hands off, for the most part. JamSam is another excellent offensive rebounder, and rarely turns the ball over. Finally, in the regular minutes category, we've got Luis Colon. Mostly, he's just another damn good rebounder, and is largely irrelevant on offense. Still, we have to pay attention, because he can pile up the boards.

The Keys

Make Your Throws -- With how often they foul you, a lot of it simply comes down to how many freebies you can hit. We've had a roller-coaster ride at the free throw line as a team, having some excellent games and having some where we couldn't get anything to go. The Morris twins, at least, are starting to become money from there, to along with the awesome freebie talents of Tyrel Reed, Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich. Tyshawn is getting better, too. So, I'm not terribly worried about this, but it is definitely a key.
Hit Your Open Threes -- They give you a bunch of open threes, ranking 204th in the country in opposing 3-point%. So, when we are presented with the inevitable open threes, the ones we consistently missed against Okie State and Missouri, we've gotta hit them. We hit those, we are in tremendous shape. If not, their D can capitalize on our unbalanced offensive performance (everything in the lane), and force a bunch of turnovers, and we could be upset. Let's just make them, OK?
Box the Hell Out -- Law Firm, I'm looking at you. Come on. Box out. This K-State team makes their living off of second-chance points. They get into the NCAA Tournament, it'll be because of their offensive glass prowess. So, I'm not expecting zero second-chance points from the Powercats. But, just don't get consistently destroyed by them. Box out, go up and grab the ball when it's up there, don't give away easy ones. We rebound with them, and their offense should struggle, big-time.

That's all. Prediction-and-more coming in the OGT tomorrow...

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State #1

rockchalk — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 15:51:17 -0000

OK, so, for each of the conference games, I intend to do a preview. For some games, depending on time and other events occurring, I might do some other preview-type elements, but this should be the staple for all sixteen conference games. Basically, all I'm going to use is the new-and-improved-and-even-awesomer KenPom pages. Here is Kansas State's. We'll break it down into a couple of sections, or segments if you'd rather, and then conclude with some final thoughts on the game...

Opening Thoughts

Ah. The Kansas State Wildcats. I don't want to start spewing any hate, as there's been plenty of little jabs from both sides. You've got the sometimes-funny, oftentimes-reaching course list over at BOTC and then Denver's patriotic, Kansas-loving defending comments on said thread, as well as his little jabs throughout his own Kansas-KSU preview. Nothing like the stuff over at BOTC, but it is still clear we're in hate week. Or Hate Week. Capitilization or not, this game is pretty much a must-win. While I have yet to really freak out about our potential postseason possibilities, or lack thereof as it were, we likely need to go undefeated at home agains the North, at the very least, to stay safe. Pending some major upset, like beating the Longhorns in Allen or the Boomer Sooners in Norman, we can't afford to lose games like Tuesday night's and still squeak into the NCAA's. And so, this is, in a weird way, a must-win game. Not only for those NCAA reasons, but also for confidence's sake. We got demolished on Saturday, and despite a generally positive second half, the completely negative first half is likely still fresh in our minds.

The Background

Kansas State is not an NCAA Tournament team this year. They are a good team, a decent team, a team with some talented players. There is no Michael Beasley or Bill Walker on this year's squad, but they have a nice handful of players that are solid. Of course, they've yet to beat anyone of note. Seriously. Their best win, without question, is against Cleveland State. Now, the game was in Cleveland, and this is the same Vikings team that defeated Syracuse in the Carrier Dome. Still, though, Cleveland State is no resume-defining win. They have played a grand total of four other games against Top 100 teams according to KenPom's ratings (vs. Kentucky, vs. Iowa and vs. Oklahoma); they lost three of the four. The first two were played in Las Vegas, and were close, two-point affairs. The Kentucky loss is slightly excusable, but there is no excuse for losing to the Iowa Hawkeyes. And then, last Saturday, they had a chance to pick up a huge win, a win that could catapult them into some NCAA competition. They have also lost to Oregon, who has sucked thus far in the Pac 10, but it was in Eugene and it was by only 5. Oh, and the other Top 100 win; against Southern Mississippi (Larry Eustachy-coached Golden Eagles, by the way) in Kansas City. So, here's what we've got. We've got a bunch of wins against patsies (9 wins against sub-100 teams; 8 of them above 200), a pair of decent victories (@ Cleveland State and vs. Southern Mississippi) and a four losses; one of them entirely defendable (vs. Oklahoma), two of them somewhat acceptable (@ Oregon and vs. Kentucky) and one that doesn't quite compute (vs. Iowa). It's got NIT written all over it, as long as they can win the easy, conference games at home.

The Offense

They are actually a pretty efficient offensive team. Not tremendous, but they are ranked 57th in adjusted efficiency. Breaking it down into more specific categories, they are mostly middle-of-the-road. An average three-point shooting team (35.7%; 107th), a not-much-better two-point shooting team (49.4%; 111th) and average at Effective FG% (50.8; 106th). They are, however, incredibly proficient in one area: offensive rebounding. Which, given are persistent trouble in that area, is particularly worrisome. If we lose, it will almost assuredly be because an exhorbiant amount of second chance opportunities by the Powercats. They are the second rated team in all of college basketball in Offensive Rebounding % (43.8%, meaning that of all shots they miss on the offensive end, they end up picking up nearly 44% of them). This is, quite obviously, the key to their offense, as they aren't a great shooting team. As I mentioned. Of course, this incredibly high offensive rebounding percentage is exaggerated because of two stellar performances; against Wagner and Florida A&M. While Wagner isn't terrible on the defensive boards (132nd in NCAA), the Rattlers are flat-out terrible, ranking 329th. Out of 344. So, while sure, they're a really good offensive rebounding team, they might not be quite as stellar as the numbers make it out to be. They're also really good at not getting their shots blocked (18th in the country), whatever that's worth.

The Defense

The Wildcats real strength is on the defensive side of the ball, though. Their defensive efficiency is off the charts; 11th in the country. They are particularly stellar at two aspects (two of the Four Factors, or four most important elements, too); effective FG% and turnover %. They force a shitload of turnovers, a little more than one every four possessions, which is good enough for 12th in the country. Of course, that turnover percentage is quite exaggerated by a couple of games against creampuffs. They forced a turnover on 40% of Kentucky's possessions in their matchup, and one on 36% of the possessions against Gardner-Webb. That is ridiculous. And they don't let their opponents shoot well; at all. Which is quite important to being a good defense. However, their defense is absolutely terrible at one thing. This is mostly explainable, given the incredble propensity they force turnovers with, but still quite noteworthy nonetheless. They foul. A lot, a lot, a lot. They foul so much, opponents such nearly one free throw for every field goal attempted. Now, this statistic is also inflated because of the high amount of turnovers; as the more turnovers, the less field goals attempted. Still, it is also heavily impact by the amount of fouls by the Powercats. And that, right there, is the Powercats' defensive strategy. To foul and slap and cut lanes and do plenty of stuff attempting to force turnovers, never particularly worried about fouling in the process.

The Players

In KenPom's new team pages, which are so amazing it isn't even funny, he has included a new listing of the players. As opposed to merely listing the players in two general sections (starting lineup and bench), he has now divided the players into several separate categories; Major Contributors, Significant Contributors, Role Players, Limited Roles and Nearly Invisbile. Naturally, we're not going to spend too much time on the Nearly Invisible, and not too much on those with LImited Roles, either. Instead, we'll focus on the first three categories, which presents us with eight players to discuss. Here are those seven players, in order of contribution, roughly:

Major Contributors

Jacob Pullen - #0 Soph. G -- Pullen is the Wildcats' best player. Simple as that. He was overshadowed by the two big stars last season, but now that he is the main show in town, he is performing. He easily plays the most minutes on the team, controls the ball more and shoots the most. He is their primary three-point shooter, having put up 100 treys so far in D-1 games, although he isn't terribly efficient (shooting 35%).
Darren Kent - #42 Sr. F/C -- This is surprising to me. Now, I understand Kent is a better player than he was last year, but he never really impressed me a year ago. And now, he is their primary inside threat, one of the keys to their team. He's the best offensive rebounder on the team, which makes sense given the fact he's 6'10", and one of the best in the country (OR% of 15.4; 25th). He's a pretty good defensive rebounder, as well. He draws plenty of fouls, as well, so hopefully Cole sticks to his disciplined shot-blocking techniques and he doesn't commit any stupid fouls.

Significant Contributors

Denis Clemente - #21 Jr. G -- Denis Clemente is fast. Really fast. In fact, the fine folks over at BOTC took issue with some newspaper that called Sherron Collins was the Big 12's fastest player, vehemently claiming that Clemente should get the honor. Honestly, I'll have to wait until Tuesday night to really make a decision for myself, but he is fast. For sure. He is a decent shooter from the perimeter (36.7% in 60 shots), and a good assist man. Given his speed, I'd imagine he is a drive-and-kick guy, but the stats don't necessarily give credence to that. Still, Pullen's high amount of threes taken means he has to get them somewhere; I'd guess that Clemente's drives have led to plenty of those. I'm not too worried about him, though, as I think we have him under control. Besides Kalin Lucas on Saturday, we really haven't hade a guard go off on us all year. Well, besides that and Tuesday night against Siena. So, yeah, I suppose we're in a cold streak. This is a huge game for Tyshawn Taylor, who will likely be guarding Jacob Pullen. So, we'll get a matchup of the Sunflower State's two fastest basketball players; I don't think there is anyone arguing that.
Fred Brown - #1 So. G -- Fred Brown's best skill? His three-point shot, where he is shooting nearly 44%. Other than that, he is awfully generic. Nothing special, either on the good-or-bad side of the ledger. He will likely be Brady's assignment when they go small (Clemente, Pullen and Brown), and an assortment of the smaller guards when they go bigg(er) and bring in...
Jamar Samuels - #32 Fresh. F -- Jamar Samuels, on the other hand, is good at plenty of things. He's especially adpet at not turning the ball over (although that stat might not be all that important, given he is a F that is 6'7") and drawing fouls. And given the fact that the Morris twins will be his primary defenders, that's no fun. If either of the Morris twins, Kieff or Cus, fouls out early, we could be in for a long game. He's also a really good rebounder. In short, I just became more scared of the Powercats because of Jamar Samuels. He is good at those things we struggle at, particularly the Morris twins. Yikes.

Role Players

Dominique Sutton - #23 Soph. G/F -- I've gotta be honest, I expected Sutton to rank much higher on this list. After Pullen, I likely would've guessed that he is the second best/most important player on the team. Instead, he is merely a role player, according to KenPom. Still, given his height and relative reputation, I'd imagine that Brady draws the assignment, as long as he isn't the 4 in there at the time (which, according to the bolded players on KenPom's page he is at the start of games). He is another really good rebounder, particularly on the offensive end, and has quick hands; he's 107th in the country in steal%. He is average on just about everything else, nothing terribly special.
Ron Anderson - #40 Soph. F -- Ron Anderson is their dirty-work player. Honestly, the kind of player I think is Quintrell Thomas' floor in terms of production. While he could develop into a Darnell Jackson, I think that 'Trell, at the very least, will be our Ron Anderson by the beginning of next season. A solid player, who can play pretty good defense and is an absolutely fantastic rebounder (51st in the country if offense; 239th if defense). He is also good at drawing fouls.

The Keys

Get the ball in to Cole - Really, all K-State has in the way of comparable height to Cole is Jason Kent, and he is quite then. Sure, he is a damn good rebounder, but he isn't incredible, and he likely can't handle Cole one-on-one for an entire game. Look for lots of doubles, which is fine with me considering Cole's passing skills. In any case, no matter what happens after the fact, get the ball in to Cole and see how the defense reacts. If no one comes over to help out, I'd be fine with Cole taking Kent to the bakset every single time. If someone doubles, do that ball movement thing we are so good at, and find someone open.
Don't Foul! - I'm specifically looking at the Morris twins and Mario Little, if he plays at least. They are all expected to guard players that have a high propensity to draw fouls (Jamar Samuels and Ron Anderson), and we can't afford foul trouble. It's OK to challenge shots and play good, hard, physical defense. That, I can live with. But please, please, stop the stupid fouls. Please.
Make the Free Throws - Given Kansas State's immense fouling tendencies, it is likely inevitable we are going to get fouled. I mean, it could reach Eddie Hightower status without Eddie actually even showing up to Allen. And so, when we get our trips to the free throw line, we've got to knock them down. If we give away enough free points, we could lose this game.

Concluding Thoughts

This is one of those games. Y'know, those games that you really have to win, and you know you should win, but you just don't feel all that comfortable going in. It's weird. And, this preview did not make me feel better; particularly the bit about Jamar Samuels. Now, I'm mostly frightened of him. Hopefully the Morris twins can step it up. But, seriously, we've got to win. And although it certainly isn't a sure thing, it is at home. And that's big for such a young team. We've played like a much different team at the Field House all year, and hopefully that confident, playmaking team is the one that shows up Tuesday night. If not, we could be in for a shock; a shock that would send our once so-promising postseason thoughts going down, down, down. We can probably survive one loss like this in conference play. Either a home game against average competition, or an away game against bad competition. I don't want to use it up in the first game of conference play.

Oh, yeah, and it's K-State. They should never, ever beat us in Allen. Ever. So there's that, too.

Check back here an hour before the game (hopefully) for the Open Game Thread.

Get to Know Your Rival; Kansas State

Denverjhawk — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 17:00:11 -0000

Well last year for the first time in a long time Kansas State had some serious name recognition associated with their team. Sure there were the days of Pervis Pasco, Larry Reid or even Manny Dies, but not since Mitch Richmond have Kansas fans had as much reason to know much about our rivals to the west as we did last year. Michael Beasley and Bill Walker are now gone, so what remains, and what can we look for going into the matcup Tuesday with the Wildcats?

Kansas State breakdown after the jump...

It's well documented that the Jayhawks are young and new. A near 80% turnover in every statistical category has led to the current rebuilding project we're all a witness to night in and night out. The state of Kansas produced 7 NBA draft picks last year. 5 out of the University of Kansas, 2 out of Kansas State. What remains is either the continuation of a rivalry resurrected or the beginning of another period controlled by the Jayhawks. Beasley and Walker put them back on the map and now Frank Martin and his current squad have to keep them there.

Jacob Pullen, Dominique Sutton and Denis Clemente are all players that come into the season with expectations to lead. Pullen was a solid compliment to the talent last year and has picked up some of the slack this year so far averaging over 14 points per game. Clemente after missing all of 2007 returns as one of the more experienced players on the team and has contributed accordingly through the non-conference schedule checking in as the teams 2nd leading scorer and assist man in 2008. Sutton was a high profile recruit that arrived with Beasley so while he went relatively undetected he is expected to be a key contributor and so far has played good but not great for Frank Martin.

Beyond those three, several others have stepped up early this year but are also considered question marks when looking at how well the season will go in Manhattan. Jamar Samuels a 6'7" redshirt freshman has shown flashes of great play against some of Kansas State's opponents including solid games against both Iowa and Oregon in losing efforts. Darren Kent is the Wildcats lone contributing senior and leads the team in rebounding with just over 6 per game.

Overall as young as the season is and as many question marks as these two teams have, it's tough to get a good read. Kansas State lacks a true marquee win and with close losses to Kentucky and Iowa at home along with a 5 point loss to Oregon on the road appears to be in a similar spot, possibly even a tougher one than the Jayhawks. No one can fault them for the loss to OU the likely favorite in the Big 12 this year, but without a real strong win to speak of I think this K-State team will go through a fair amount of growing pains in conference and show the same inconsistencies we've seen from our own Jayhawks.

Check out Bring on the Cats for addional info on the team and I would expect maybe the guys over there might drop in and give me a little insight into how wrong I really am here...they really seem to hate us. Looking forward to this one myself and I'll have a preview up late tonight or early tomorrow.

SB Nation - Jamar Samuels

RPI WATCH: 12/09/09

Xavier at Kansas State: Game Notes

What They Said

What We Said

RPI WATCH: 11/29/09

TB Jaws with the Ole Missians

Friday Afternoon Big12Hoops.com Link Dump - 11.06.2009

Big 12 North

Big 12 South

Non Big 12 Links

BtB 2009-10 Big 12 Preview

Big Twelve Conference Standings

Preseason All-Big 12 Team

Who is your pick to win the Big 12 this season?

Baylor

Colorado

Iowa State

Kansas

Kansas State

Missouri

Nebraska

Oklahoma

Oklahoma State

Texas

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

BIG 12 OUTLOOK: 03.09.09 (Postseason Awards Edition)

Big Twelve Conference Standings

Self-Evaluation

Postseason Awards: The Botcies

Player of the Year

Defensive Players of the Year

Newcomer of the Year

Freshman of the Year

Sixth Man of the Year

The Darnell Jackson "Most Improved Senior" Overachievement Award

The Aaron Bruce "Most Regressed Senior" Underachievement Award

The Joey Graham "Tough Son of a Bitch" Awards

Coach of the Year

Most Underachieving Coach of the Year

All-Big 12 First Team

All-Big 12 Second Team

All-Big 12 Third Team

All-Big 12 Defensive Team

All-Big 12 Freshman Team

Key

Predicted Outcomes

Who do you think will win the 2009 Big 12 Tournament?

No. 1 Kansas

No. 2 Oklahoma

No. 3 Missouri

No. 4 Kansas State

No. 5 Texas

No. 6 Texas A&M

No. 7 Oklahoma State

No. 8 Nebraska

No. 9 Baylor

No. 10 Iowa State

No. 11 Texas Tech

No. 12 Colorado

Kansas State: Know Your Rival

vs Big 12Kansas State: 7-5

Keys to the Game

Prediction

Biggest key for tonight?

Turnovers

The first 15 minutes

The 3-pointer

Good Leo making an appearance

Containing Denis Clemente

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State (Again)

Opening Thoughts

The Background

The Offense

The Defense

The Players

The Keys

A KenPom Preview: Kansas State #1

Opening Thoughts

vs Big 12
Kansas State: 7-5