SB Nation - Mark Wohlford

The State of the Balls

BoilerTMill — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 03:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Michael Conroy - AP

How will the balls hang with us?(AP Photo/Michael Conroy)

I have a lot of respect for Purdue when it comes to facing the Cardinals. They were not afraid to go to Muncie last season and play on Ball State's home floor. This year's game was supposed to be the third game in a two-for-one deal, but the Cardinals agreed to move the game to Conseco as part of the Wooden Tradition when the organizers could not find an opponent for us.

Some might remember this summer that I campaigned, and even posted an e-mail address for the organizers, to have Notre Dame be our opponent. Since the organizers would do the scheduling and not the schools I saw it as the perfect opportunity to renew a long dormant series. The Boiled Sports guys and I took this a step further in last night's podcast by talking about a dream scenario where Indiana, Purdue, Butler, and Notre Dame would be the four teams every season. They would rotate playing each other, with Indiana and Purdue only playing in years where the Big Ten was too stupid to have us play twice in conference play. This makes too much sense, so it would never happen because the schools wouldn't agree to it. This is especially true with the national brand Notre Dame is developing. Why lose to a quality program like Purdue or Butler when you can develop a national brand by losing to Loyola Marymount.

I'll step down off my soapbox though. We get Ball State this year and I am sure the Cardinals will appreciate the national boost they get for playing in a name event like this. I'll be running a CoverItLive from Conseco thanks to the very good people on the media relations staff at the Fieldhouse, so let's see what we are up against:

2008-09 record: 14-17 (Lost to Buffalo in MAC Tournament 2^nd round)

2009-10 record: 3-4, 0-0 MAC

Blog representation: Over the Pylon (Primarily football)

Series with Purdue: Purdue leads 7-2

Last Purdue win: 68-39 at Ball State on 12/9/08

Last Ball State win: 72-52 at Conseco Fieldhouse on 12/18/99 (Purdue was ranked #24 at game time.)

Common Opponents: Valparaiso (W 88-78), SIU-Edwardsville (W 57-47), Central Michigan (January 17, February 13), Buffalo (January 28).

Ball State is a team that I have always felt should be better than it is. They haven't made the NCAA's since 2000, but their biggest claim to fame was losing 69-67 to a nearly unstoppable UNLV team in the 1990 Sweet 16. That UNLV team won three tournament games by 30 points, but barely survived the 12^th seeded Cardinals. Ball State had already upset Oregon State and Louisville. Had Ball State won, you would have seen the lowest seeded regional final in NCAA Tournament history against 11-seed Loyola Marymount (the famous Bo Kimble led team).

The Cardinals haven't had much national success since then. They made some noise in 2001 by upsetting UCLA and Kansas before falling to Duke in the Maui Invitational, but they were unable to sustain those wins into an NCAA bid. A nasty textbook scandal essentially gutted the team before the 2007-08 season and they are still recovering. They have gotten better each season though. They finished 6-24 with very few scholarship players in 2008. They improved to 14-17 last year, and could be in line to compete in a wide-open MAC this season. So far they have lost to Temple and Butler, while dropping close games to UC Davis and Tennessee Tech. They did grab a nice road win at Indiana State on December 9^th.

Where Ball State will struggle Saturday is the fact they are not a high scoring team. They average less than 63 points per game, which is not enough to beat us. This is without facing our defense, which is among the best in the country. 6'9" sophomore forward Jarrod Jones is a very promising young player from Michigan City, IN. he leads the Cardinals in scoring (14.6 ppg) and rebounds (6.6 rpg). He is strictly a post player who shoots better than 50% from the field. 6'2" freshman guard Jauwan Scaife is second on the team in scoring at 11.4ppg. This is a kid that was a key cog for nearby Muncie Central High for four seasons. As a freshman in high school he played against the great Oden and Conley Lawrence North team in the state championship game. The Bearcats were merely a speedbump against possibly the greatest team in Indiana High School history, but Scaife did play against pretty good competition all four years.

Scaife is an accomplished 3-point shooter. He leads the team in made triples, hitting 12 of 27 on the young season. He can also create his own shot and is good at getting to the foul line, hitting 88% from there. 6'4" junior Malik Perry is a reliable third option averaging 8.9 points per game. 5'11" sophomore guard Randy Davis from Plymouth, IN was a great scorer in high school, but he has become a distributor for the Cardinals. He averages 7 points and almost 4 assists per game. Davis is your stereotypical Indiana white boy that can simply shoot the basketball with great accuracy. After being held scoreless against Butler he has been in double figures each of the last two games. Most of his damage has come at the free throw line, where he is 29 of 37.

Ball State is not an overly deep team, and that lack of depth will hurt them in a game like this. Thanks to our freshmen and the emergence of Mark Wohlford we can legitimately play 10 players. That number, like Spinal Tap, goes up to 11 if Sandi Marcius makes his season debut on Saturday. Aside from Jone they don't have much size, either. Terrence Watson (6.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg), Brawley Chisholm (5.9ppg), Pierre Sneed (3ppg), and Mo Hubbard (0.9ppg) round out the eight man rotation. As you can see, however, Hubbard and Sneed are hardly scoring threats.

Ball State shares the ball fairly well with 11 team assists per game, but they do not rebound well. That is to be expected with their overall lack of size. Only Watson and Jones are serious rebounding threats. If we neutralize them on the glass we should have an easy day. I am very much encouraged by the way we crashed the offensive glass against Alabama. That was a very underrated, but incredibly important part of our comeback.

Ball State is a pretty good 3-point shooting team, hitting a little more than a third of their long range attempts. They only shoot 43% from the field overall.

While Ball State is an improving team, the recipe for an upset just isn't there. They lack a go-to scorer that can take over a game (like Brandon Wood for Valparaiso or Aminu for Wake Forest). They don't shoot well from the field and they don't rebound well. Turnovers are an issue at 15 per game against much worse competition. In truth, we should only be worried if they start bombing away from 3-point land and that opens up the low post for Jones. If he can operate and get JaJuan Johnson in foul trouble (our Achilles heel) they might have a chance. It is still not a good one.

Keys to the game for Purdue:

Defend the three-pointer
Clamp down on Jones inside
Keep Davis off the foul line
Play Purdue-style basketball

Purdue 72, Ball State 52

Q&A with Hammer and Rails

MRickman84 — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 17:30:16 -0000

We had a chance to talk with the excellent Purdue blog Hammer and Rails for the Deacs' upcoming game against the Boilermakers on Tuesday. You can find our questions and their answers after the jump.

What does the loss of Lewis Jackson mean for the team?

Not as much as I thought after seeing Kelsey Barlow play in the Paradise Jam. We’re used to playing point guard by committee. Keaton Grant and Chris Kramer played that role in the 2007-08 season before LewJack arrived. They can handle things, while Barlow grew up quite a bit as a freshman in the Virgin Islands. If there is such a thing as a fortunate injury it is this one because we are so guard heavy. Even former walk-on Mark Wohlford can bring the ball upt he floor a little. Where we miss LewJack the most is his ability to penetrate and score. Barlow isn’t quite there yet, but he is getting close.

How do you plan on defending Wake's bigs?

This is where injuries can be an issue. 6’9" freshman Sandi Marcius has yet to play because of a foot injury, but he is very close to returning. He may even be back for this game. We need him. Aside from JaJuan Johnson we don’t have a true, dedicated post player. Robbie Hummel is a good rebounder, but he plays on the perimeter more offensively. Freshman Patrick Bade has done well in relief of Johnson so far, but he is still very green. Both Bade and Johnson fouled out against Tennessee and we were lucky the Volunteers did not attack the paint on the final play.

To be quite honest, our lack of depth on the interior is a major reason that I think we are one year away from truly contending for a national championship. We have JaJuan Johnson and that is it. We have some promising bigs coming in the next recruiting class, but they won’t help us this year when they are still playing high school ball. We will be fine if we can keep JJ out of foul trouble, but that is a big if.

Obviously we know what we're getting from E'Twaun, Hummel, Johnson and Kramer, but who is the X-Factor that Wake should be looking out for?

Our X-factor is that we can have any player we put on the floor go for 10-15 points on any given night. Case in point: in the Paradise Jam semifinal Mark Wohlford had 10 points (he had four points in his career coming in) and Ryne Smith had 16. These guys are role players, but they carried the day. We are at our best when our role players like Smith, Wohlford, Grant, and other can contribute. They free up the floor for JJ, E’Twaun, and Robbie.

Speculate: Why will Purdue make the Final Four?

Because it is a goal and it is so close to home. I was junior at Purdue in 2000 when we made the elite 8. We fell to Wisconsin in the west regional final. It was out third loss in four games against the Badgers that year. The Final Four was also in Indy, costing Gene Keady maybe his best chance of making a Final Four.

This team is ready for that step. They have seen it on the schedule and know how close it is. I don’t want to make the Final Four. I want to win the whole damn thing.

Same deal: Why won't Purdue make the Final Four?

Depth in the middle. As I said before, we have JJ and that is it. We have another true center on his way in Travis Carroll, but he won’t be here until next year. That is why I want JJ to say for his senior season. He can helped lead us to a title while teaching Carroll as his understudy. We would also have Marcius, Bade, and Donnie Hale (another 2010 recruit) to provide depth in a very weak area this year. Basically, I view our 2010-11 team as the best team in Purdue history is JJ, Robbie, and E’Twaun stay because all the pieces will fit perfectly. If they all stay, anything less than a national title in 2011 will be a disappointment in my eyes.

Who has made the biggest jump from last year?

It is a tie between Ryne Smith and Mark Wohlford so far. Kelsey Barlow, Patrick Bade, and DJ Byrd are freshmen. Event though they are very talented, they are still freshman. Smith was the 10th player in a nine man rotation last year as a freshman. He has improved his game greatly and is emerging as a 3-point shooting specialist so far. He went apeshit in the second half against St. Joseph’s. Anyone who can regularly throw the ball in the basket from 20 feet away like Smith is good enough to be on my team. Wohlford is a great story. He is a former walk-on that was cut as a freshman, worked his way back on the team, and is now a regular contributor as a senior. He is a tenacious defender and every point he gives us on offense is a bonus. He even had a big three in the Tennessee game.

It's prediction time: who wins, what's the score and why?

The Boilers are playing at home, and I will pick this Purdue team against any team in the country in Mackey Arena. The core group has lost only four games at home to Wofford, Duke, Illinois, and Northwestern. The Wofford and Northwestern games were severe aberrations. I saw this team in person systematically dismantle Michigan State in Mackey Arena last year 72-54. Those Spartans then had a pretty good postseason run. I am concerned about Wake’s size, but I can’t pick against the Boilers at home. Purdue 74-70

Boilermakings for 11/10

BoilerTMill — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 16:48:24 -0000

Let's get right to it:

Show up for the Seniors: beat State - you now have even less of an excuse not to come on Saturday, as the Athletic Ticket Office has announced some more ticket deals. Students can get in for just $10. We have had a great student section all year, but let's get even more out there. If you are a student and you know someone who hasn't been coming, find them and get them to come for $10! Is $10 too steep? How does free sound? All current and former members of the U.S. Armed Forced and their families can get in gratis on Saturday. All United Way agency clients can get in gratis as well.

While you're coming, bring some food as well - As is tradition for the final home game of the season, the Gleaner's food bank will be accepting canned foods and donations around Ross-Ade Stadium. It really is a great Saturday. Pay a low price, see some football, and donate to a good cause all in one.

Basketball wraps up exhibition season - It's not that I am lazy, it's just that I can't get excited about blowing out a division II team. Maybe we need to join the Big East so the games are exciting. I'll get into basketball coverage full swing later this week with the Cal State Northridge preview. I'll let the Boiled Sports guys handle things with their take on this one. Some things to bear in mind from the box score alone:

Mark Wohlford played 11 minutes. He may not play 11 minutes all season.
Ryne Smith played 21 minutes. That likely won't be his average.
Coach Painter seemed content to let the younger guys get some time, which is good.
Rebounding was much better.
Robbie Hummel might be ready to finally contribute a bit as a role player, at least according to basketball expert Terry Hutchens.

Volleyball continues to struggle - After beginning the season in the top 25 the women's volleyball team appears to have fallen off a cliff. Purdue is just 3-10 after a 5-1 start to the season and will need a dramatic turnaround to make the NCAA Tournament. Sits the Michigan schools this weekend after getting swept by Minnesota last week.

Women's soccer makes NCAA Tournament - Thanks to late double overtime wins over Indiana and Iowa the Boilers (12-5-3) are headed back to the NCAA tournament. Their foe in round one will be Central Michigan, with the Notre Dame-IUPUI winner awaiting in round two. Central Michigan is in via the MAC's automatic bid. Purdue carries a #23 ranking into the tournament.

Joey Elliott named Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week - Beating OSU and Michigan in the same season will do that. Ryan Kerrigan needs serious consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. He leads the Big Ten with 11 sacks, and his one of Tate Forcier on the 2-point conversion try does not count. Boo for weird statistics.

If you're into torrents, this is for you - MGoBlog was masochistic enough to post a link to a full torrent of Saturday's win in all its 720p glory. Torrent experts, please explain how I can get this badboy working.

The Return of the podcast - Finally, the Hammer & Rails podcast returns tomorrow night, as I will be talking with Ben of the Michigan State SBNation blog The Only Colors. We're going to spend roughly the first half hour talking about football, then the last half hour discussing basketball and how nice the view from the top of the conference looks for both of us. Listen live at the link at 8pm ET/7pm CT/3pm Hawaiian.

Basketball 2009-10: The Returning Players

BoilerTMill — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 13:39:43 -0000

I can barely contain my excitement. Growing up in Indiana, basketball is in my blood, and I can literally feel it coming around the corner. It felt like it began this morning when ESPN released its preseason coaches poll and Purdue was rated 7^th.

So I have decided to make basketball a three part preview before next week's exhibition opener. Part 1 was up a few weeks ago talking about the huge crop of eight newcomers to the program. Today I'll hit on the returning players and what wee need from them in addition to what they already give us. Finally, I'll talk about the schedule in part three and what we can expect as a reasonable record.

The reason this team is so highly ranked is because of its returning cast. All five starters are back. A key player off the bench is back. These are all guys that have now been around for quite awhile, so much is expected of them. Lewis Jackson is the only returning starter that is not at least a junior, and big things are expected of him too.

Seven months ago I said we needed to remember this moment because we would be back to avenge it.

Consider us back.

JaJuan Johnson - My regular readers know that I am trying subtle hypnosis to get JaJuan to stay in West Lafayette after this season. I am of the opinion that if he stays, we will win the 2011 national title because he will have an experienced Sandi Marcius as a backup and a young Travis Carroll to teach for the future. Having those three on the same team for one season in 2011 could help Purdue jump into the realm of the country's elite.

We know what we're going to get from JJ. He has a solid mid-range jumper. He is developing into a great low post player. No one abuses the rim on thunder dunks like him. If anyone ventures within five feet of him the ball will quickly be going the other way on a swat. Now we just need him to become a dominant rebounder. Ultimately, I can see that part of his game holding us back if he doesn't develop. We no longer have Calasan and Green to help him on the boards. Marcius' development will help in this, as will Patrick Bade's. The game at Michigan last year showed what can happen when JJ gets in foul trouble, so it is critical that we don't rely on him too much.

Seriously, how much fun is this? I can't dunk, so will someone who can please tell me?

Back to the hypnosis: It's too early, JaJuan. Education is important. You want to win a title and be a legend. You're not 21 yet so you haven't experienced Harry's or the Cactus...

Robbie Hummel - I honestly don't know how Robbie does it. He is a scorer, a rebounder, a deadly accurate shooter. He is also a tenacious rebounder and hustler. Robbie is a player that makes everyone else around him better because of the matchup problems he creates. If we have a smaller guy on him he can go inside and open up the 3-point shot for E'Twaun and Keaton Grant. If teams go big on him he draws that big man outside, opening up the middle for JJ. There really is no great way to guard him.

If Robbie can stay healthy this year Purdue has an excellent chance at a special season. Robbie single-handedly kept the UConn game in last year's tournament close. Purdue can win a lot of games with just Robbie Hummel playing well. With Hummel and everyone else playing well, it is very hard for them to lose games. We just need Robbie to be Robbie this year and stay healthy. If everyone steps up around him I don't think there is a team in the country we can't beat.

E'Twaun Moore - If 2008 was Robbie's breakout year as a freshman and 2009 was JJ's as a sophomore, the third of that "Baby Boilers" group is due this year. I think we have yet to see E'Twaun's talents as a pure scorer. I call him a scorer because he is a player that can create his own shot nearly anywhere on the floor. He is capable of taking over a game and exploding for a personal 12-0 run at any time.

E'Twaun has been far from a disappointment so far. He is a consistent scorer. We know we're getting 13-15 from him every night. What I want to see from him is the ability to just go apeshit and drop 30 on anyone at any time. I know he has it within him. We saw flashes of it last year in the losses to Oklahoma and Penn State, where he put the team on his back for long stretches. We also got a taste when he had a season high 26 on 10 of 14 shooting against IU. There was also the game at Illinois in 2008 when he went for 24 on 10 of 12 shooting. I want E'Twaun to be a bad, bad man that other teams fear. I want him to be the assassin that closes games out with absolutely backbreaking baskets. You know the type, when a team needs a stop and they defend until the shot clock runs down only to have someone drill a 17 foot jumper with a hand in his face. E'Twaun is that type of player, and this is his year.

Chris Kramer - Is he really a senior? I know I have talked about him coming back to play football next year, and that is a rumor that continues to grow legs. We still get one more year of basketball and Chris has made his goal clear: he wants his Defensive Player of the Year award back.

Kramer is the type of player where you love him if he is on your team, but hate him if you're facing him. I am convinced the man cannot feel pain. He is tenacious and drives other teams nuts with his mere presence. His scoring has gone down every year, but we don't need him to be a scorer. If he can generate a few points every night on turnovers and icing free throws that is fine with me. We have plenty of other guys that can score. Kramer generates plenty of offense through steals and assists even if he isn't the guy that actually puts the ball in the basket. We just need Kramer to be Kramer.

Keaton Grant - Any time you can have a guy like Keaton Grant come off the bench you know you're a good team. His scoring was down a little last year, but that is because he had a reduced role in the offense and was still recovering from knee surgery. With him completely healthy we have another great 3-point shooter. In 2008 he shot 44% from long range, but dipped to 35% last year with more attempts.

Keaton needs to be a shooter, plain and simple. We need him to return to his 2008 shooting form where he buried nearly every open look from beyond the arc. Part of the reason his numbers dropped could be because they moved the 3-point line out a foot, but he can still be a dangerous weapon off the bench from long range.

Lewis Jackson - I thought LewJack was the missing piece coming into last year. We needed a distributor who could force tempo and make us run at times. He filled that role perfectly, and now we just need him to mature both on and off the court. He offseason arrest for alcohol and pot was not a step in this direction. One has to think he is on very thin ice coming into this season, as he is already suspended for both exhibition games and the opener against Cal State Northridge. Honestly, it is a pretty toothless suspension. We don't need him in the exhibitions and Cal State Northridge is a game we should win regardless of who plays. Still, LewJack must learn and grow.

As a point guard, LewJack needs to improve on his assist to turnover ratio (nearly 3:2 last year, so not bad) and he needs to be a better free throw shooter. He is going to have the ball in his hands a lot at the end of games. He also will be driving the lane a lot and drawing contact, so 58% from the line won't cut it.

Ryne Smith - I have read a lot about how Smith has bulked up and is ready for more minutes this year. He is an interesting case. If you read the message board chatter after last season ended, Smith was a candidate for transfer because surely the newcomers would take what few minutes he had. It appears he has bulked up and improved his shooting stroke though.

Smith is almost exclusively a 3-point shooter. He was 6 of 21 from the field last year, but only four attempts were inside the arc. He was 5 of 17 from 3-point range, so if he has improved his stroke I know we can use him as a 3-point shooting specialist for a few minutes each night. In the college game you always have room for a kid that can just shoot the basketball, especially from long range. Smith gives us another option in this area.

Mark Wohlford - Wohlford is the only returning player that is not expected to have a huge impact on the court. The walk-on has only played in 18 career games, mostly as a final minute replacement when we've had a big lead. He has four career points. Wohlford will still be a leader though.

We have a lot of walk-ons. Bubba Day, Stevie Loveless, Kyle Coleman, and Dru Anthrop give us a virtual practice squad of players. Wohlford will likely take on a leadership role in this group, giving us essentially our own team to practice against. How can you not like that? If Wohlford has to play in a game and can give us anything at all it is gravy.

Final Analysis:

There is a reason we're ranked #7 in the preseason and on the short list for the Final Four. This is a damn good basketball team with a lot of returning talent plus some pretty good freshmen. All the parts fit each other well. That is the biggest aspect, especially in the style we play. We are not an individualistic team. We don't feature one guy that when you stop him, you stop us. We thrive on spreading around the scoring and playing team defense.

Tell me, Digger: Will you be using the highlighter to point out how wrong about Purdue you have been? If so, let me give you a few more so you don't run out.

Of course, the media doesn't like this. We'll probably piss of Digger Phelps all season long by <gasp> playing defense and doing what we need to do to win games. So what if we don't score 95 points per game. Who freaking cares! You don't need to score 95 when you can hold opponents under 60. The object of the game is to win. It doesn't matter if you win by 1 or 100. This team is built to win basketball games, and it will win a lot of them.

Surprise Additions: Where do the new basketball recruits fit?

BoilerTMill — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 13:00:13 -0000

Purdue's 2009 basketball recruiting class became an unexpected two part act over the weekend. We already knew about Patrick Bade, Kelsey Barlow, Jeff Robinson, and D.J. Byrd. All are Indiana kids who made their decision to come to West Lafayette very early in their high school careers. In Byrd's case, I remember covering a sectional game his freshman year and there were already rumors he was all but committed then. I saw him two other times in sectional play and there is little doubt in my mind we are getting a good one.

The past couple of days have seen us pick up three news players in addition to those four. It is rare that a class grows so much well after signing day, but it is not a surprise. Dru Anthrop and Steve Loveless are both invited walk-ons, while Sandi Marcius is insurance against a possible NCAA eligibility issue with Robinson. So where do these guys fit in?

Sandi Marcius 6'10" 240 lbs, LaPorte, IN La Lumeire School - We got to Marcius late in the party, but we still won out over some decent programs according to the list on his profile. In my opinion, he is actually an upgrade over Jeff Robinson at a position of need. Losing Nemanja Calasan to graduation basically left JaJuan Johnson as our lone post presence. Robbie Hummel rarely plays with his back to the basket and Johnson still needs to work on his rebounding skills. Marcius takes care of both of those needs, and he is more likely to be ready to contribute immediately.

Purdue finally has a widebody in the paint.

Robinson played at Lawrence North, which was absolutely loaded with Division I talent this year. Still, there were many games in which he struggled to get off the bench. If Lawrence North was really that good they would have rolled through the tournament like they did in the Greg Oden days. Instead, they got knocked out 49-36 by a Franklin Central team they dominated 53-39 in the regular season. I'm sorry, but teams "loaded" with Division I talent should score 36 points in a half, not a full game. This is not a knock against Robinson, but I wasn't encouraged that he saw few minutes for them this season.

Marcius is a different type of player. He was the main guy for a prep school that attempted to play a more regional schedule instead of just the state of Indiana. Don't get me wrong, there is absolutely nothing wrong with the quality of basketball in this state. This was the first year that LaLumiere played a full varsity schedule though and they still went 14-5. They played most of the top teams in Northwest Indiana and acquitted themselves with some very nice wins. Gary West was 16-6 and won a Class 4A state title in 2002. LaLumiere beat them 74-64 late in the season. Against teams outside of Indiana the Lakers were 7-0 thanks to Marcius. He averaged 15 points and 15 boards for them.

I think he will compliment this team very well because he is more of a true center than JaJuan. JaJuan is not afraid to step outside and has a very nice 18-footer. JaJuan can draw defenses away from the basket while Marcius prefers to stay down low. He's a bruiser who is not afraid to do the dirty work inside. He also worked with a coach in Delray Brooks at LaLumiere that knows about winning. He has an international pedigree from his native Croatia, where many top-notch players play against older, more physical players as they develop. That only helps him make the jump to the Big Ten.

The coaches love his energy and enthusiasm. I love that he can create a genuine size mismatch if we play both him and JaJuan at the same time. He works on defense, which is something we know a little bit about too. I fully expect him to step in and even be an upgrade over Chally because he won't step out and shoot two random triples per game.

Dru Anthrop 6'1", Lafayette, IN Central Catholic High School - Here is what you should know about Dru Anthrop, who averaged 22.9 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists, and 3.1 steals for Lafayette Central Catholic this season: He is a winner.

Observe:

December 19^th: Lafayette Central Catholic 83, Cathedral (with Kelsey Barlow) 73

December 27^th: Lafayette Central Catholic 65, Franklin Central (with Patrick Bade) 59

January 6^th: Lafayette Central Catholic 72, North Montgomery (with D.J. Byrd) 51

Central Catholic was 20-7 this season and won its third straight class 1A regional. For those not from Indiana, that is the smallest enrollment class in the state. Cathedral and Franklin Central are 4A. Franklin Central was undefeated at the time as well. Ironically, Central Catholic struggled the most against Loveless and his Frankfort team, losing to them twice.

Anthrop is far from afraid of playing bigger, stronger players. Part of the reason Central Catholic is one of the best 1A schools every year is that they play a schedule of much larger schools. This season alone Central Catholic took on Carmel (2^nd largest school in the state), Lafayette Jeff, Franklin Central, Zionsville, McCutcheon, and Cathedral: all 4A schools. The only time they play 1A schools is when they face the three 1A members of their conference and during the state tournament. They have gone 59-20 the last three years as well, only five of those losses were to schools their size, and three were in the state tournament at the semi-state (final 4) level.

Dru Anthrop is a gamer...

This is not your typical walk-on that will struggle to get moments in blowouts. This kid is a legitimate basketball player that led his team to some impressive wins against very good competition. I saw him play once this past season. It was the championship game of the Zionsville holiday tournament. Anthrop had 18 points against a much bigger, stronger team. He showed range from beyond the 3-point arc in that game as well as the ability to drive. Zionsville won 63-61 on a last second shot, but Anthrop really impressed me with his talent and leadership ability.

The parallels to Bobby Buckets are obvious. He is a townie that is coming as a walk-on. Anthrop has a little more size and is more of a pure scorer, but both are kids that love to shoot the basketball. We won't be asking Anthrop to contribute like buckets did as a freshman, but I don't see any reason he can't provide us some depth as a shooter and give us a few minutes off the bench every night later in his career. The only reason I don't see him playing more is because of who is in front of him. How is a walk-on going to see minutes when we can likely go nine or ten deep next season?

I do like the kid though. You have to give him credit for following a dream when he turned down offers to play at some smaller schools. I also like that he has played against nearly everyone else that is coming in this year. He should have some nice chemistry with them and he can definitely be a Buckets-level contributor or more later in his career.

Steve Loveless 6'6, Frankfort (IN) High School - Loveless is another kid that is following a dream. I'm not really sure where he will fit in next season, but because of size and depth I think he is the most likely to redshirt of these three. Marcius will undoubtedly play while Anthrop could be an energy/change of pace guy off the bench. Loveless is a kid that is already eager to come to Purdue and get working in the weight room. This is good because he needs some bulk.

At 6'6" he would probably equal out to be a 2 or a 3 at the division 1 level. He is not going to immediately challenge Kramer, Barlow, Moore, Byrd, and Grant for minutes. The Journal and Courier even touts his academic credentials. The dude got a 1,500 on his SAT! Last season he averaged 23.2 points 11.9 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on the season. Much of this was against a weaker schedule than Central Catholic played, but Frankfort still had a pretty good season. The Hot Dogs were 16-7 and lost in the second round of sectionals to West Lafayette.

During the season Loveless did battle some of the state's better big men. He played well against IU-bound Derek Elston in a 60-47 loss at Tipton late in the season. Against Kokomo's Patrick Hopkins the two dueled in the paint before Kokomo won 73-71 in overtime. Of Frankfort's seven losses, six were to teams that were probably much better on paper. Only the loss to West Lafayette in the tournament (after Frankfort beat them 48-31 during the season) was a bit of a surprise, especially since it came on the Hot Dogs' home court.

Perhaps that is the one dig against Loveless, and why he wasn't a little more highly recruited. They didn't get a marquee win all year. North Central and future Purdue recruit Terone Johnson crushed Frankfort by 30. D.J. Byrd's North Montgomery team got an overtime win against them. North Montgomery and Frankfort are in the same conference, so Loveless and Byrd have battled for four years. Loveless' best wins this past season were against Anthrop and Central Catholic twice.

As I said previously, I think Loveless will need some time before we seriously see him on the floor. He did have some smaller D-1 offers, but I don't know if he has enough size yet to match the position he is going to play.

Final Thoughts:

I see this entire class of six or seven guys (depending on Robinson) and I see excellent chemistry. They are a lot like the Hummel-Moore-Johnson class in that they are very familiar with each other. They played a bunch of times against each other, and the scholarship guys know that the two walk-ons are every bit as good as a scholarship player. They pushed them during their high school careers, and even if Anthrop and Loveless don't play a minute next season they will push everyone else in practice.

Marcius, Anthrop, and Loveless haven't known as they were headed to Purdue as long as Robinson, Bade, Barlow, and Byrd, but they will compliment them very well. All seven guys will absolutely erase the depth questions that plagued us during the tournament. Here is what I project as our main lineup:

Starters:

C JaJuan Johnson

PF Robbie Hummel

SF E'Twaun Moore (more of a 3 guard)

SG Chris Kramer

PG Lewis Jackson

Top bench guys:

Keaton Grant (3-point specialist, backup PG)

Sandi Marcius (paired with JJ when we go big)

Kelsey Barlow (PG with size, shooter)

D.J. Byrd (Robbie Hummel-lite)

Patrick Bade (Robbie Hummel-lite-lite)

Top guys in blowouts/there if we need them:

Dru Anthrop (He's better than you think)

Ryne Smith (Potential 3-point specialist?)

John Hart (wild card)

The rest:

Jeff Robinson (I'm not really convinced on him)

Mark Wohlford (the consummate bench guy)

Steve Loveless (give him a year or two0

Obviously the starters are established, but our bench is going to be very young outside of Grant. Once those guys get experience, however, we're going to be VERY good. I am still looking towards the 2010-11 season as a National Championship season if everyone stays and Anthony Johnson, Terone Johnson, and Travis Carroll replace Kramer, Grant, and Wohlford. The lineup we have already gives us at least a punchers chance though. The addition of Marcius also gives us some insurance in case JaJuan goes pro early after his junior year. Marcius and Carroll is a good interior duo. Marcius, Carroll, and JaJuan is virtually unbeatable.

Purdue: Know Your Glendale Travel Companion

Bill C. — Wed, 25 Mar 2009 14:00:10 -0000

Yesterday we looked at UConn. Today, the #5 seeded Purdue Boilermakers.

Purdue: 26-9

	Boilers	Opp
Points Per Minute	1.71	1.47
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.06	0.91
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.24	1.09
2-PT FG%	49.2%	41.7%
3-PT FG%	34.9%	32.8%
FT%	70.6%	67.2%
True Shooting %	54.2%	47.8%

	Boilers	Opp
Assists/Gm	15.0	12.3
Steals/Gm	7.2	5.3
Turnovers/Gm	11.6	14.9
Ball Control Index (Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	1.18

	Boilers	Opp
Expected Offensive Rebounds/Gm	11.8	12.8
Offensive Rebounds/Gm	9.8	11.4
Difference	-2.0	-1.4

Where PU's good: Forcing turnovers, forcing bad shots, defensive rebounds, passing, ball-handling
Where PU's not as good: Offensive rebounds, overall points per possession and free throw shooting are only decent but not great

NCAA Basketball Stats

Player	AdjGS*	GmSc/Min	Line
JaJuan Johnson (6'10, 215, So.)	14.42	0.54	13.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 1.3 TOPG
Robbie Hummel (6'8, 208, So.)	13.75	0.47	12.4 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.0 TOPG
E'Twaun Moore (6'3, 180, So.)	11.56	0.35	14.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.1 SPG, 2.6 TOPG
Chris Kramer (6'3, 205, Jr.)	7.71	0.28	5.2 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.5 APG, 2.1 SPG, 1.4 TOPG
Keaton Grant (6'4, 207, Jr.)	6.21	0.23	8.0 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 TOPG
Lewis Jackson (5'9, 165, Fr.)	5.34	0.23	5.8 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 3.3 APG, 2.0 TOPG
Marcus Green (6'4, 229, Sr.)	4.63	0.29	4.0 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 1.0 APG
Nemanja Calasan (6'9, 250, Sr.)	4.58	0.29	6.4 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.0 TOPG
Bobby Riddell (5'9, 163, Sr.)	2.23	0.32	2.3 PPG
Ryne Smith (6'3, 175, Fr.)	0.86	0.16	1.1 PPG
Mark Wohlford (6'0, 185, Jr.)	0.19	0.07	36 minutes
Chris Reid (6'9, 251, Sr.)	-0.23	-0.11	30 minutes

* AdjGS = a take-off of the Game Score metric (definition here) accepted by a lot of basketball stat nerds. It does the same thing my previous measure of choice did (it takes points, assists, rebounds (offensive & defensive), steals, blocks, turnovers and fouls into account to determine an individual's "score" for a given game), only the formula is more used and accepted. The "adjustment" in Adjusted Game Score is simply matching the total game scores to the total points scored in the game, thereby redistributing the game's points scored to those who had the biggest impact on the game itself, instead of just how many balls a player put through a basket.

JaJuan Johnson is a much more physically dominant player than his weight would suggest. He's a great shot-blocker and shooter, though I guess really his rebounding leaves a bit to be desired considering he's PU's #1 post man.
Robbie Hummel, on the other hand, rebounds particularly well considering how much time he spends on the offensive perimeter. He's one of the team's best 3-point shooters and its best rebounder. Interesting combination. Purdue's three major seniors are their #7, #8 and #9 contributors. They'll only be better next year.
One thing quickly jumps out, though, when comparing this roster to that of UConn: size. Not a lot of it here...some height, but not a lot of weight.

What does Ken Pomeroy have to say?

You look at KenPom's stats, and you start to think the Purdue-UConn game is going to be about 63-58 one way or the other. Like UConn, Purdue is a defense-first team. They are a reasonable offensively efficient team--#57 in efficiency, #19 in turnover %, high assist-to-FG ratio--but they are in the Sweet Sixteen because of defense (and anybody who watched the last minute of Purdue-Washington can attest to that). They are #5 in the country in defensive efficiency, #9 in Effective FG% allowed, #10 in 2pt% allowed, and #25 in block%.

What are Purdue's weaknesses? They're only an average FT shooting team (#109), and they don't get to the line very much at all (#243). A good passing team can pick them apart (#279 in Assist-to-FG ratio), and as you would guess from all the sophomores contributing for them, they are not high in the experience ratings (#189). And as mentioned earlier, they just do not grab many offensive boards (#265). It's rare for a team to be so great defensively and so finesse- and jumper-oriented offensively, but that's Purdue.

Keys to the Huskies-Boilers Game

Purdue's offensive rebounds. Purdue's offensive rebounding ability vs UConn's defensive rebounding ability is the single biggest statistical contrast in this game. UConn has an extreme advantage here, and the Boilers will either have to get very hot shooting the ball, or they're going to have to find some way to grab some second-chance opportunities.
The hot hand. Points will be at a premium in this game, and neither team has a true go-to scorer--Purdue and UConn both have three guys averaging double digits, and the leading scorer seems to change from game to game. If somebody gets hot, especially from 3-point land (away from the blocked shots in the paint), one nice spurt of scoring could create the necessary distance between the two teams. Will that hot hand be AJ Price? E'Twaun Moore?
Size vs Speed. UConn's a really big team, Purdue not so much. They both play very well defensively, but can Purdue compensate for such a disparity in, um, girth? Hasheem Thabeet (7'3, 265) and Jeff Adrien (6'7, 243) will win any battle of size and muscle over JaJuan Johnson (6'10, 215) and Robbie Hummel (6'8, 208).

However, Johnson and Hummel will have a significant advantage in terms of speed and range. Johnson has decent shooting range, and Hummel actually seems to prefer the perimeter by far, having made the second-most 3-pointers on Purdue's roster. The winner of this mini 2-on-2 battle will probably win the game. If Purdue's skinny bigs can draw UConn's away from the paint, Purdue's options double or triple. If not, then Purdue's going to have to sink a ton of 3-pointers to win this game.

Prediction

Nevermind how well UConn played the first weekend of the tournament. It's ancient history. What clearly resides in the present tense, however, is that Purdue has much less margin for error in this game. UConn will likely dominate the glass on Purdue's side of the court, so Purdue either finds a hot shooter or loses. Hummel or Moore or maybe Keaton Grant can take a lot of pressure off of JaJuan Johnson if they can make some 3-pointers and open up the court a bit, but in the end I just don't think Purdue matches up well. Purdue's strengths are UConn's strengths, only the Huskies seem just a bit better in every category. This will be a halfcourt dogfight, but I expect UConn to end up advancing. UConn 69, Purdue 62.