SB Nation - Larry Drew II

Kentucky @ UConn: Pre-Game Analysis

Truzenzuzex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 16:47:57 -0000

Which DeMarcus Cousins will show up tonight?

Tonight, the Kentucky Wildcats will face the Connecticut Huskies in Madison Square Garden in the SEC-Big East Invitational.

Kentucky has only played UConn twice in its history, the first time being back in 2006 where the #2 ranked Huskies defeated Kentucky 87-83 in a closer than expected game.

This time, the Wildcats are ranked #4 in the land by the AP and the coaches, and UConn is ranked #14 and #12, respectively. Because of the proximity of Madison Square Garden to UConn, they will be the home team for this contest.

The Huskies are fairly young, but not nearly as young as the Wildcats. As far as experience goes, this UConn team is similar to the North Carolina Tar Heels. Also similar to the Tar Heels, this UConn team has plenty of size, and is also one of the few teams that can match up with the Wildcats on the front line. The interesting thing is, UConn can also match up with UK in the back court, size-wise.

The Huskies are 6-1 coming into this game, and Kentucky 8-0, but there is no doubt who has played the more difficult schedule of the two. Even with the addition of the UNC game, Kentucky has played far weaker opponents than UConn, who has played a good Hofstra team, LSU, and Duke. In fact, the Huskies lost to Duke by 9 in a game that saw them turn the ball over almost twice as many times as the Blue Devils, and get handled on the offensive glass to boot.

But UConn also thrashed LSU in a game in which their two starting guards looked like John Wall on the loose, making shots, dunks and layups from everywhere.

More after the jump.

Four Factors Analysis

As before, we will analyze what the results of this display means in detail. Please note that we won't be doing this for every single game this year, because creating all this is quite a bit of work. But particularly for the big games, you'll be getting this display and a detailed analysis of what it means.

First off, we notice that offensively, UConn is simply not as efficient as Kentucky. Much of that efficiency, though, can be attributed to the Wildcats' weak schedule, but even against the Tar Heels, you can see that UK's offensive efficiency is significantly higher than UConn's has been in their last three games.

Defensively, the teams are much closer, essentially mirror images of each other if you discount the first game or two of the season. If all is taken into consideration, UConn is somewhat better in DE, but I think that is mostly a result of their better defensive start and a tribute to the fact that they have a couple of seniors in the starting lineup.

Moving on to the Four Factors themselves, you will note that UK is more efficient offensively, a better offensive rebounding team and about the same when it comes to free-throw rate -- both teams get to the line a lot. UConn is noticeably better when it comes to taking care of the ball, and you can see by the green bar that UK has a long way to go to be top-ten caliber in that department.

Checking out the defense, both teams are decent at holding teams to low percentages with UConn being a bit better than the Cats. Kentucky forces more opponent turnovers and as previously noted, is a better rebounding team. UK does let teams get to the line more often than UConn.

Amazingly, Kentucky is a better three-point shooting team than UConn. The Wildcats figured to be average at best in that stat this year, but Darius Miller and Darnell Dodson, along with Patrick Patterson, have done a good job filling that void. UK also takes more 3-pointers than UConn does, and both teams play at track-meet tempo. No surprise there.

Next, we'll look at the players for the Huskies, and their stats:

Connecticut Huskies Basketball Roster

	#	Pos.	Comments	W	H	College
Kyle Bailey	55	G	-	170	6-3	junior
Donnell Beverly	2	G	-	190	6-4	sophomore
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	4	F	-	210	6-7	freshman
Jerome Dyson	11	G	Starter	190	6-4	senior
Gavin Edwards	33	F	May start	230	6-10	senior
Alex Hornat	22	F	-	205	6-5	senior
Ater Majok	5	F	-	233	6-11	freshman
Jonathan Mandeldove	32	C	-	240	7-0	senior
Charles Okwandu	35	C	May Start	255	7-0	junior
Alex Oriakhi	34	F	Starter	240	6-9	freshman
Stanley Robinson	21	F	Starter	220	6-9	senior
Darius Smith	24	G	-	168	6-1	freshman
Jamaal Trice	13	G	-	220	6-5	freshman
Kemba Walker	15	G	Starter	172	6-1	sophomore

Connecticut Statistics

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Jerome Dyson	7	34.4	6.3	16.4	38.3	1.0	3.9	25.9	6.6	9.0	73.0	1.4	4.1	5.6	5.3	3.0	1.6	1.1	3.1	20.1
Stanley Robinson	7	34.3	6.4	12.0	53.6	0.6	0.9	66.7	2.0	3.6	56.0	2.7	4.4	7.1	1.7	1.4	0.7	1.9	1.1	15.4
Kemba Walker	7	34.0	5.0	11.1	44.9	1.4	2.6	55.6	4.0	5.1	77.8	0.6	2.6	3.1	5.7	3.1	2.7	0.9	1.1	15.4
Gavin Edwards	7	30.3	4.3	6.0	71.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	3.1	95.5	2.3	3.4	5.7	0.6	1.7	1.0	3.3	2.7	11.6
Alex Oriakhi	7	31.4	2.6	5.6	46.2	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.9	2.1	40.0	3.1	6.6	9.7	0.4	1.4	0.6	1.7	3.1	6.0
Jamal Coombs-McDaniel	7	11.7	0.9	3.3	26.1	0.6	2.3	25.0	1.7	2.4	70.6	0.7	1.4	2.1	0.7	0.3	0.1	0.0	1.1	4.0
Darius Smith	7	5.7	0.4	1.1	37.5	0.1	0.3	50.0	0.7	1.3	55.6	0.3	0.6	0.9	0.3	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.4	1.7
Donnell Beverly	7	8.3	0.7	1.7	41.7	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.3	50.0	0.0	1.1	1.1	1.3	0.4	0.3	0.0	0.4	1.6
Charles Okwandu	7	6.4	0.4	0.6	75.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.9	0.7	1.6	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.9	1.9	0.9
Jamaal Trice	6	3.3	0.0	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.5	66.7	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3
Alex Hornat	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Kyle Bailey	1	2.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Position Analysis: Point guard

The starting point guard for the Huskies is Kemba Walker. Walker was the #5 ranked point guard nationally in 2008 out of New York City, and was heavily recruited by almost everyone. Walker is excellent at getting to the rim as you saw if you watched any of the LSU v. UConn game. Walker simply blew by LSU defenders on the way to 20 points in a blowout win.

Like Larry Drew II of North Carolina, Kemba Walker is knock-down three-point shooter, making 55% of his attempts so far this season. Even though UConn does not shoot a ton of threes, when it is Walker doing the shooting, they normally go in.

The knock on Walker so far has been his inability to avoid turnovers. Even though he is averaging over five assists/game, he is also averaging three turnovers, which is short of the magic 2/1 number. Walker is also a good-but-not-great on-ball defender, and if John Wall is his assignment, that can't be good.

As far as wall is concerned, he is far superior to Walker (and anyone else, for that matter) in speed with the ball in his hands. Walker, like Drew, will struggle to stay in front of John Wall, although Walker is more athletic than Drew. You can be assured that Jim Calhoun will do whatever he can to minimize the chances of Wall's one-man fast breaks.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Shooting guard

Jerome Dyson is the starting shooting guard for the Huskies, and he is a good one. Dyson has good size at 6'4", and has all the experience that being a senior at UConn brings, which includes trips to the Final Four.

Dyson is a nice compliment to Walker in that Dyson is not a true off-guard, but more of a combo guard, and that shows up in his 5 assists/game statistics. Dyson is a very aggressive defender and like Walker, works hard to get to the rim. He has not shot the ball particularly well from the perimeter this year, but he is capable of doing so.

This will be a tough matchup for Eric Bledsoe, as Dyson is explosive off the bounce and has a slight size advantage. Bledsoe plays bigger than he is, which will help, but Dyson will be by far the biggest challenged he has faced, offensively and defensively, this year

Advantage: UConn

Position Analysis: Small Forward

Stanley Robinson is UConn's starter at the small forward spot and the team's leading scorer along with Kemba Walker. Robinson is a senior who, like Dyson, has been there and done that when it comes to big games.

Robinson can do it all -- slash, shoot the three, hit the mid-range shot. Robinson pefers to operate inside and use his almost-power-forward body to post up his foes or muscle them for the put-back. Robinson is a tough, savvy defender and is capable of scoring a lot of points in short order.

Unlike versus Will Graves, Darius Miller will not have a quickness or size advantage on Stanley Robinson. Robinson is an older, wiser, and frankly better version of Miller right now. This matchup will be a huge challenge for Darius Miller on both sides of the ball.

Advantage: UConn

Position analysis: Power Forward

Alex Oriakhi is UConn's starter at the power forward spot. Oriakhi is a freshman from New Hampshire and was ranked as the 21st best power forward in the land by Rivals.com.

Oriakhi is not a big scorer. He is mostly in the game for defense and rebounding, although he is a strong finisher around the rim when he gets the ball in the post. Oriakhi leads UConn in rebounding with 9 per game, and he is also an outstanding post defender.

If Oriakhi winds up going against Patrick Patterson, as I would expect, this is the biggest mismatch problem for UConn. Patterson is much too quick, to strong and too agile for Oriakhi, as well as being far more experienced. Oriakhi does not have either the footspeed nor quickness to stay with Patterson on the break, or if Patrick decides to do his scoring from outside. Inside or out, Oriakhi will have his hands full.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Center

I expect Charles Okwandu to start at center tonight to counter the strength and size of the Wildcats. Okwandu is a junior and has had plenty of experience in Jim Calhoun's system. Okwandu is from Lagos, Nigeria, and although he is very tall and big at 7' and 255#, he is not a particularly good rebounder.

Okwandu is a junior college transfer from Harcum College in Pennsylvania, and is the least highly regarded of all the UConn starters. He is a big body who can take up space, but he isn't much of an offensive threat.

The other possibility is that Gavin Edwards will start. Edwards is a senior from Arizona, and has good size and who would probably play the power forward spot, moving Oriakhi to the center position. Edwards is a skilled post defender and a genuine offensive threat inside. He does not shoot the ball from the perimeter, but is a good leaper and good finisher at the rim. Edwards leads the team in blocked shots at over 3 per game.

No matter who starts, neither of the guys who are likely to wind up in the post are good enough to contain DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins is much to quick and athletic for Okwandu, and is just a better player than Orikahi. But a lot depends on whether or not Bad Cuz shows up.

Advantage: Kentucky

Bench Analysis

Connecticut has a deep, talented bench much like Kentucky, but unlike the Tar Heels, they are much smaller. UConn has plenty of good guards like Donell Beverly and Darius Smith who can come in and spell Walker and Dyson, as well as swing players in Alex Hornat and Jamaal Trice, but nothing special.

Advantage: Draw

Overall analysis

Once again, this is going to be a very fast game, and turnovers loom large again. UConn is not as talented as Kentucky, and their depth is probably no better. The big punch from UConn comes from their guards, who are talented scorers and adept ballhandlers. They have more than enough athleticism to get to the rim on UK, and they shoot very good free throws.

Although UConn plays at a very high tempo, thier big people do not run the floor as well as Kentucky's. This will force Calhoun to be very careful with defensive balance and may force the guards to say away from the glass. Kentucky is the better rebounding team, but sending his guards in to help could be catastrophic with Wall on the floor. Calhoun will also have to very carefully manage the minutes of his big men, as they are not quite as deep across the front line as the Wildcats are.

For Kentucky, guarding the three will be critical in this game. UConn is not a big 3-point shooting team, but that is mostly because they are too big and athletic for most of their opponents. Faced with a team like the Wildcats who are as big and even deeper across the front line, they may well shoot more from the perimeter, and that has been a big weakness of the Wildcats.

Once again, this game is likely to turn on offensive rebounds and turnovers. If UConn can get ten more shots than Kentucky, I expect that they will win this game. Otherwise, I expect Kentucky will.

Projected score: Kentucky 80, UConn 75.

ACC Power Rankings: 12.8

MRickman84 — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:30:14 -0000

So this probably should have been done yesterday, but I really want to get in the habit of doing power rankings throughout the season. UNC occupies the top spot this week, with Duke coming in second, as both are coming off tough losses last week to strong opponents.

Let's take a look at who is where after the jump...

1.) UNC-- [W vs. Michigan State, L vs. Kentucky] UNC is getting better as was expected. The young guys are playing well and Larry Drew II looks a lot more comfortable. I'm still concerned about the Heels' bench, as Strickland looks a little lost out there and Henson just does not know what to do with his body. The Wear twins are eating up a ton of minutes without a lot of productivity. Tyler Zeller is a great player for them though and really makes the perfect sixth man. UNC gets another tough test when they head to Dallas to play Texas at the Cowboys stadium next week.

2.) Duke -- [L vs. Wisconsin, W vs. St. John's] I thought this Duke team was supposed to be able to shoot? Kyle Singler is looking average at best so far this year and is taking a LOT of shots. You know what you're getting out of Jon Scheyer week in and week out and that is a great stabilizer. Andre Dawkins has been spectacular so far and we are going to be seeing a lot more of him as Duke enters ACC play. Duke's big weakness is still down low--Zoubek and Thomas are just bad, but the Plumlees work hard and are good players.

3.) GT [W vs. Siena, W vs. USC] The Jackets were left out of the Challenge this year because of their finish last season, and that really is a shame as I believe they would have won their matchup and turned the tide for the ACC. Instead, Tech put a whooping on Siena and USC last week. GT is stellar in the frontcourt with Lawal, Peacock and Favors, but losing Iman Shumpert is going to be sidelined for 3-6 weeks with a knee injury.

4.) Clemson [L vs. Illinois, W vs. South Carolina] Clemson is looking like bi-polar Clemson again, surprise! This is a good, solid basketball team. They have 5 players averaging at least 9 points per game and Trevor Booker is almost averaging a double-double (13 and 9). Their problem is that they just lose focus (as seen by the terrible collapse against Illinois). I think they are a better team than Georgia Tech, but they just can't pass them until they show some consistency.

5.) Miami [W vs. Minnesota, L vs. BC] Yes, I know they lost their first conference game. But it was very close and came down to the buzzer. They picked up a great non-con win over Minnesota, but still have not really been challenged other than their last two contests. Dwayne Collins is very good, but there's a lot of pressure on him coming into conference play since two of Miami's three strong guards are newcomers (Malcolm Grant from Villinova and freshman Durand Scott.) James Dews can get it done too, but we will see just how much the 'Canes miss Jack McClinton after the 1st of the year.

6.) Wake Forest [L vs. Purdue, W vs. Gonzaga] After a disappointing loss at home to William & Mary, the Deacs took to the road for two very tough tests. After a hard-fought loss to Purdue, the Deacs looked like they finally clicked in a win over Gonzaga at the Kennel. If the Demon Deacons can use this as a momentum builder, they could enter the new year at 10-2. They will be tested by UNC-W, who has played some good teams tough, as well as Richmond, which received votes in the polls this week. Freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart are looking like the real deal, but the Deacs absolutely need to get consistency from their bigs and from Al-Farouq Aminu.

7.) Virginia Tech [W vs. Iowa, W vs. Georgia] I like VT. They're better than they look on paper, and their loss to Temple is not a bad one--the Owls almost pulled off the upset against Georgetown a few games ago. They easily could finish anywhere between 6th and 10th, but the combo of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen should be good for at least 6 conference wins.

8.) Maryland [W vs. Indiana, L vs. Villanova] I've seen Maryland play 4 times now this year and I'm sorry, I just don't think they are very good. Greivis Vasquez takes way too many ill-advised shots and he is shooting 32%. Sean Mosley and Landon Milbourne are the strong points to this team and Eric Hayes keeps them calm sometimes, but they aren't deep and I'm not sold on their front court. The Terps were a hot pick to start the season, but they have to prove something to me before they can move up the board.

9.) Boston College [W vs. Michigan, W vs. Miami] Here we go again. It's the same old story every year. BC looks sparse on paper and then Al Skinner does a great job coaching his team to overachieve. It'll probably happen again this year and their last two wins are a big indicator of this. Reggie Jackson could be a great player, and BC gets bumped up a spot just from his nasty dunk against the 'Canes (on a terrible offensive foul call in the last 30 seconds) and his clutch FTs to seal the win. Raji, Jackson, Trapani is a great combo and they get a good effort out of Josh Southern too.

10.) Florida State [L vs. Ohio State, W vs. FIU] Florida State looked downright ugly against Ohio State. And downright ugly against Florida. But that win against Marquette was big, so they have that in them. Alabi, Singleton and Kitchen are a nice 1-2-3, but the 'Noles need to be getting more out of Xavier Gibson and Ryan Reid.

11.) NC State [L vs. Northwestern, W. vs Marquette] After their loss to Northwestern, I didn't think at all that the Wolfpack would beat Marquette. It was the furthest thing from my mind. State is 6-1, but they are a mess and there is just not much there.

12.) Virginia [L vs. Penn State, L vs. Auburn] Hey, at least Virginia has beaten Cleveland State, something Wake wasn't able to do last year. Sylven Landesberg is a heck of a player, but when your next two leading scorers are Mike Scott and Sammy Zeglinski, there's a problem there. Virginia is not very good.

Kentucky Basketball: Some Things Deserve Posts of Their Own

Truzenzuzex — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 01:14:18 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

John Wall, one-man fast break.

Browse more photos »

Occasionally, authors write articles so good, so absolutely fascinating, that they deserve their own spot at the top of A Sea of Blue. This article by Andrew Sharp, SB Nation's basketball blogger, is such a case.

Let's start off with the fact that Andrew is a North Carolina fan, and proud of it. But Andrew writes this piece from the perspective of a college basketball fan as well as a Tar Heel fan, and the combination is compelling, interesting and for my money, absolutely captivating.

The first thing that got my attention was this:

In my mind, it's a thousand times cooler to be surrounded by a bunch of people that aren't there to get caught by ESPN cameras, but because it's one of the few things in life that's been an absolute mainstay. Through generations of families, people have been going nuts over Kentucky basketball, and that's why the grown men, women, 17-year-old daughters and 70-something grandparents still make weekly pilgrimages to Rupp Arena. Because they live and breathe Kentucky basketball, and it's something they've been doing for years and years.

That's a fascinating paragraph, if you think about it. Andrew managed to encapsulate the raison d'être of the Big Blue Nation in just one paragraph, accurately. As wordy as I am, I doubt I could accomplish the same thing in three. But I digress.

It is amazing to see the combination of diversity and universal passion that is the Big Blue Nation. While I was watching the Michigan State at North Carolina game the other day for the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, I was very impressed by the Tar Heel fans, and how big and light blue the Dean Smith Center was. But with all due respect to our neighbors to the East, The crowd at Rupp Arena, at least for last Saturday, blew them away.

I think, as much as anything, it was a bigger deal for UK fans -- we haven't beaten the Tar Heels in five long years, and the Big Blue Nation were beside themselves in the hope to be relevant again:

As the game wound down, you could sense that the crowd was happy not just about the win, but a return to relevance. And these people deserve it. It odd to say they "deserve" anything since this is a fanbase blessed with more wins than anyone in college basketball history; but they do. People that care this much about basketball should have a Top 10 team. It's just good for the sport.

I agree. It is good for the sport, and it is good of Andrew to lay aside the rivalry and recognize that, something that I deeply respect and appreciate. Not because it makes me feel good, but because he is 100% right.

More after the jump.

As to what Andrew witnessed, well, sit still for a little hyperbole:

[John Wall is] not so much a freshman as an NBA player playing college basketball. Carolina's Larry Drew vs. John Wall was like pitting a golden retriever against a cheetah. It's not the dog's fault when that fight turns into a slaughter. It's just... nature. Do you ever wonder what it would have looked like had Lebron gone to college? This is it. And it's funny.

I don't know if it was all like that, but there was no way Drew could stay in front of Wall. Wall is among the fastest point guards in the history of college basketball with the ball in his hands, and Larry Drew cannot be faulted for being unable to stay in front of him. That's just something that teams will have to learn to contend with.

Finally, there's this:

The Wildcats are a worthy adversary again; it's good to have them back. Their fans span generations; and just when you think a rivalry's dead, John Wall comes to Kentucky, my 10 year-old cousin falls in love with UK, and suddenly John Calipari has the Wildcats looking like the hottest program in college basketball. Next year, Harrison Barnes comes to UNC, and who knows what'll happen?

Indeed. Who knows? But what I do know is this -- it's good to be considered worthy of praise by a Tar Heel fan, because quite honestly, Kentucky's basketball team has not been worthy of that for some time. That's just reality.

Read the whole thing. I promise you, these excerpts do not do it justice.

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Kentucky Wildcats: Pre-game analysis

Truzenzuzex — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 23:17:30 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

We hope to see a lot of this out of the Big Cuz tomorrow.

Browse more photos »

Obviously, the UNC contest at Rupp Arena tomorrow is a big, big game for the team, but even more so for the fans, who are very tired of losing to our neighbor to the east.

The Tar Heels are young, but not nearly as young as Kentucky is. The Tar Heels start two seniors, a junior and two sophomores.

North Carolina is perhaps the only team in America that is taller and longer than the Wildcats are. The Heels go 6'10", 6'9" and 6'6" across the front line, and have four reserves 6'10" or taller. UK is taller across the starting lineup, but the 'Cats do not have quite as much height on the bench.

UNC is 7-1, their only loss coming in convincing fashion at Madison Square Garden versus Syracuse. That game was over with about 3 minutes still left to play, but the men in powder blue came back and beat a highly ranked Michigan State team in Chapel Hill just a few nights ago in the ACC-Big Ten challenge. In that game, the Tar Heels played extremely well at times, and that game tap has provided some sobering images for the UK staff and players.

What we will be doing today is presenting you with an extremely high-tech visualization of the comparative statistics of this game. This service has been provided by A Sea of Blue member Sylvar, and it is gobsmackingly awesome. I think no other blog can match this new style of graphical stats delivery, and I'm sure you will enjoy it. But remember, this was Sylvar's work, not mine, so be sure to thank him.

Also, for the Carolina perspective, be sure to visit SB Nation's excellent North Carolina Tar Heels blog, Carolina March.

More after the jump.

Four Factors Analysis

First off, I want to point out that this display is interactive. If you move the sliders just under the trend graph, you can zoom in on various slices of the series to see how they have done in smaller segments. The dials on the right indicate ranges from red (worse) to yellow (okay) to green (good) based on the average values of the top ten teams from last year.

As you can see by the offensive efficiency trends on the top chart, Kentucky has been trending better than the Tar Heels since about the fourth game of the season. In the last game vs. UNC-Ashville, UK's OE was at it's peak so far this season, but still just a bit below the peak UNC achieved vs. Valparaiso.

Defensively, you have to keep in mind that lower is better. UK's DE has been much worse than UNC's through the first four games. From game five (Cleveland St.) on, UK's DE has been improving, and the two team's efficiencies on defense have effectively merged. But you can see that UNC's peak DE has been much better than the best UK has put out there so far. This is largely a function of having more experienced players, most likely.

Moving down to the Four Factors, you can see that these two teams are almost dead even statistically. The green bar is the average statistic for the top ten teams from last year, just to have something to compare with. You will note that neither UK nor UNC are at top ten efficiency yet.

Another interesting thing is that UNC turns the ball over almost as much as UK does. That's partially a function of how many possessions they have per game as a function of their high tempo, but it is a bit surprising to see that a more experienced team like UNC is having as many problems with turnovers as a mostly-freshman UK.

Moving on to the defense, we see that UNC is the better team right now, but UK seems to be forcing a few more turnovers and doing a better job on the defensive glass. UK's free throw rate is very high, and that could be a major factor in the game as time goes on.

In the miscellaneous cateory, we see that both teams shoot a similar 3-point FG%, but UNC takes more 3-point shots per field goal attempt.

Next, we'll look at the players for the Tar Heels, and their stats:

North Carolina Tar Heels Basketball Roster

	#	Pos.	Comments	W	H	College
Marc Campbell	2	G	-	175	6-0	senior
Ed Davis	32	F	Starter	225	6-10	sophomore
Larry Drew II	11	G	Starter	180	6-2	sophomore
James Gallagher	35	F	-	185	6-4	senior
Marcus Ginyard	1	G	Starter	210	6-5	senior
Will Graves	13	F	Starter	240	6-6	junior
John Henson	31	F	-	195	6-10	freshman
Leslie McDonald	15	G	-	215	6-4	freshman
Terrence Petree	14	G	-	165	6-1	senior
Dexter Strickland	5	G	-	180	6-3	freshman
Deon Thompson	21	F	Starter	245	6-9	senior
Thomas Thornton	30	G	-	180	6-3	senior
Justin Watts	24	G	-	210	6-4	sophomore
David Wear	34	F	-	225	6-10	freshman
Travis Wear	43	F	-	235	6-10	freshman
Tyler Zeller	44	F	-	240	7-0	sophomore

North Carolina Statistics

			FG			3PT			FT			Rebounds			Misc
	G	M	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	M	A	Pct	Off	Def	Tot	Ast	TO	Stl	Blk	PF	PPG
Deon Thompson	8	27.4	6.4	11.8	54.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	4.5	5.6	80.0	3.6	4.6	8.3	1.4	2.8	1.0	0.6	1.6	17.3
Ed Davis	8	25.4	5.3	7.5	70.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.4	5.3	64.3	2.9	6.5	9.4	1.5	2.1	0.5	2.4	1.6	13.9
Marcus Ginyard	8	30.9	4.3	7.6	55.7	1.3	2.6	47.6	1.4	2.4	57.9	1.4	2.3	3.6	4.5	2.5	2.0	0.1	0.8	11.1
Tyler Zeller	8	15.8	3.8	6.5	57.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.1	2.9	73.9	1.5	2.5	4.0	0.4	0.8	0.4	1.0	1.9	9.6
Larry Drew II	8	25.5	3.0	5.4	55.8	1.1	2.4	47.4	1.9	2.8	68.2	0.1	2.1	2.3	6.6	3.0	0.9	0.0	2.4	9.0
Will Graves	8	18.4	2.5	6.6	37.7	1.0	3.4	29.6	1.0	1.3	80.0	1.1	2.6	3.8	0.8	0.8	0.9	0.1	1.0	7.0
Travis Wear	8	9.0	1.4	2.8	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	1.0	87.5	1.1	1.0	2.1	0.1	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.8	3.6
John Henson	8	10.6	1.4	3.0	45.8	0.1	0.6	20.0	0.5	1.3	40.0	0.6	2.0	2.6	1.3	0.4	0.6	1.3	0.5	3.4
Dexter Strickland	8	13.4	1.3	3.1	40.0	0.3	1.1	22.2	0.5	1.1	44.4	0.3	0.6	0.9	1.8	1.6	0.4	0.3	1.5	3.3
Justin Watts	8	6.8	1.1	2.0	56.3	0.4	0.5	75.0	0.3	0.6	40.0	0.4	0.4	0.8	1.4	0.9	0.1	0.1	0.9	2.9
David Wear	8	9.4	0.8	2.1	35.3	0.1	0.3	50.0	0.1	0.5	25.0	0.1	1.0	1.1	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.4	1.8
Leslie McDonald	6	6.7	0.7	2.3	28.6	0.2	1.0	16.7	0.2	1.0	16.7	0.0	1.3	1.3	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.2	0.5	1.7
Thomas Thornton	3	1.7	0.3	0.7	50.0	0.3	0.7	50.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
James Gallagher	3	1.7	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3	0.7	0.3	0.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0
Terrence Petree	3	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.7	0.7	0.3	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.0
Marc Campbell	3	1.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.3	0.0	0.0	0.0

Position Analysis: Point guard

The starting point guard for the Tar Heels is Larry Drew II, son of a former NBA player. Drew assumes the starting point guard spot from the now-graduated Ty Lawson. Drew is a solid point guard and is doing a good job of learning the spot this year. He had one year behind Lawson and is now familiar with Roy Williams style.

The strength of Drew, though not so much this year up until the last game, is his 3-point shooting. He is shooting a fine percentage, but has been a relatively reluctant shooter so far this year, preferring to get the ball to teammates in scoring position, which is the job of a point guard. His assist/turnover ratio is 2-1, which is the gold standard for point guard play.

The knock on Drew has always been his footspeed and athleticism. Unlike Lawson or Wall, Drew is not a blur getting up and down the court. Drew is a competent but not flashy ballhandler, and he isn't going to blow by people like Lawson before him, or Wall does now. But what Drew does have is NCAA championship experience, and a year under his belt. That is worth a lot.

For Kentucky, the point guard is John Wall. We all know what John Wall is capable of, that is, at least to the level he has currently played. Wall and Drew could not be less similar -- Wall is an athletic freak and a slasher, as well as a flashy ballhandler and passer, but an average 3-point shooter. Drew will need help with Wall, as Wall is not only quicker, faster and a better athlete, but he is also four inches taller.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Shooting guard

Marcus Ginyard is the starter at shooting guard for the Tar Heels. Ginyard is a strong, athletic player with good size at 6'5". Ginyard was injured back in 2008, and was granted a medical redshirt.

Ginyard brings senior leadership to the Tar Heels backcourt, and does the little things that help his team win. He is not a big scorer, averaging 11 points/game, but he is a good rebounder and fine passer. He is athletic but not extraordinarily so, and has a good understanding of the North Carolina system. Ginyard is a polished defender, leading the team in steals.

Eric Bledsoe will be the starter at the off guard for Kentucky, and even though he is significantly more athletic and just as strong as Ginyard, he is far less experienced. Blesdsoe is much quicker off the dribble than most any player of his quality that North Carolina has faced so far this year, so Ginyard will have to deal with a quickness disadvantage.

But Ginyard has the advantage in virtually every other area, especially in experience.

Advantage: North Carolina

Position Analysis: Small Forward

Will Graves is the Tar Heel's starter at small forward. Graves is the least touted of all the North Carolina starters, grading out as only #105 in Rivals' class of 2006. Graves is a hard worker, good team player and has loads of experience coming off the bench during North Carolina's most recent run of success. He is not a particularly good three-point shooter, although he can make it. He is a decent but not outstanding rebounder. What he does do particularly well is defend.

Graves is an experienced player who adds experience to the team, as well as bulk and strength inside.

Graves will be going up against Darius Miller. Miller has the advantage of height, quickness and athleticism over Graves, but Graves is much heavier and stronger than Miller, which could provide UNC some opportunities with Graves posting Miller up. If Miller decides to assert himself (a big "if"), he could give Graves great difficulty due to his superior skills, speed, and athleticism.

Advantage: Draw

Position analysis: Power Forward

Ed Davis is the power forward for North Carolina, and the young sophomore is extremely talented. Davis is strong in the low post and quick off the floor. He doesn't have great range, but he is a good finisher and has a strong lower body. Davis runs the floor very well and will dunk on you if you are slow getting back. He is a solid defensive player with long arms and good footwork.

Davis is not strong in the upper body, though, and has narrow shoulders, which makes it harder for him against more physical power forwards. Davis is a good shot blocker with long arms and good timing.

I am going to assume that Patrick Patterson will be guarding Davis, because I think he is just too quick for DeMarcus Cousins. Offensively, Patterson is a much more versatile and powerful player than Davis. Davis is highly skilled, but Patterson is capable of shooting with range and will probably try to take Davis away from the basket.

Defensively, Patterson is stronger than Davis in every respect. He should be able to keep him far enough off the low block to force him into spin moves or short, challenged jumpers. Pattrerson runs the floor just as well as Davis, so there is really no part of the game in which Davis is superior to Patrick Patterson.

Advantage: Kentucky

Position Analysis: Center

Deon Thompson will play the post for the Tar Heels, and Thompson is a senior with all kinds of great skills. Thompson can face up from 15 feet, bury you on the block, rebound, block shots, you name it. He is the Tar Heels' leading scorer and overall best player.

The knock against Thompson has been that he sometimes doesn't work that hard, but this year he seems to have solidified his work ethic. Thompson is big, strong, reasonably quick and has great hands -- he will catch everything thrown in his direction.

DeMarcus Cousins will likely get the assignment on Thomson. Offensively, Cousins and Thompson are very similar players, with the main difference being that Thompson is a better face-up player. Cousins is longer and even heavier than Thompson, so a determined effort by Cousins will force Thompson farther away from the basket than he has been most of this year. Cousins also has the unusual habit of keeping his feet on the head fake, and using his very long arms to bother shots. That will serve him very well against Thompson if he continues to do that.

Offensively, Cousins is capable of pushing Thompson around in the post, and his greater length and soft hands make him a big challenge for Thompson defensively. What works against Cousins are two things -- Thompson is a senior, and has all the experience in the world. Cousins is an excitable freshman, prone to fouls, and a poor foul shooter. Overall, the balance of the equities goes to Thompson.

Advantage: North Carolina

Bench Analysis

The Tar Heels are huge on the bench, having four bench players at 6'10" or taller. UK is deep along the front line as well, but unlike the Heels, Kentucky has better depth at the guard position. It would be much better if DeAndre Liggins were available, but we won't know about that until game time.

Kentucky has been the much higher scoring team so far, but North Carolina gets a greater percentage of points from their bench. That is something the Wildcats will have to keep an eye on.

Carolina's depth is actually better than UK's at critical positions. They could, for example, execute a "Hack-a-Shaq" game against Cousins if Cousins is able to dominate in the post, and force him to the line. They could literally expend 24 fouls guarding Cousins and still field a great team.

Advantage: North Carolina

Overall analysis

This game is going to be a track meet, so it is important for both coaches to manage their players carefully. Loafing up and down the floor will likely produce dunks on the other end, and I expect to see a ton of dunks in this game.

These two teams are both extremely big and long, and you can expect a lot of shots blocked by both sides. If the officials call this game close, it will be to the advantage of the Tar Heels in a big way. If they don't, that advantage is minimized.

The higher the pace, the more advantage to Kentucky. That's because UNC has so many big men, and relatively few guards and swing players.

UK must strongly guard the three against UNC, because they can shoot it. They don't shoot it that much because they would rather get layups and dunks, just like UK, but UNC is the more dangerous team from the perimeter. If UK doesn't put on some strong perimeter defense, the Heels can burn the 'Cats there.

I think this game will ultimately come down to which coach manages his player's minutes better. Both are going to be tired at the end, and I would be surprised if the winning margin is more than ten points. Kentucky has the home court advantage, which will be big, but not huge, in this game.

Projected score: Kentucky 93, North Carolina 88.

How Impressed Should UNC and Kentucky Be?

T.H. — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 12:58:04 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

16 days ago: Kentucky's DeMarcus Cousins, left, celebrates with teammate John Wall during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game against North Carolina-Asheville in Louisville, Ky., Monday, Nov. 30, 2009. Cousins led all scorers with 24 points and Wall handed out 14 assists in Kentucky's 94-57 win. (AP Photo/Ed Reinke)

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Yeah, I've seen them. I'm not impressed.

That, of course, was DeMarcus Cousins, Kentucky's 6'11" freshman forward talking about the Heels after a drubbing of UNC-Asheville early in the week. And stupidity about taunting your opponent aside, you can't really fault his logic. Carolina, at that point, hadn't really impressed me much either with their best win (Ohio State) marred by letting the Buckeyes back in in the second half and their one loss (Syracuse) including as it did a horrific 22-1 run against. I'm happier with the Heels now, after the win over Michigan State, but I still have my reservations. They're a young team, brilliant in stretches, but who have yet to put together the forty minutes of ball I'd like to see.

Of course, the same thing can be said about Kentucky. The Wildcats are 7-0, but against a schedule so soft it will put you to sleep. It includes such powerhouses as Morehead State, Sam Houston State, Cleveland State, and Please Find Us Another Patsy to Get Us to 2000 Wins State. The toughest foe on the slate was Stanford, currently at fearsome 4-3, and the Wildcats had to go through overtime to get that win.

The other thing about Kentucky is that they are, shockingly, younger than the Heels. Three of their top six players by minutes-played being freshmen, and another two sophomores. UNC, for all the freshmen they put out on the floor, still start two seniors, two sophomores, and a junior. If you're going to take on a talented team (and they are packed with raw talent) like the Wildcats, the best time to do so is early in the season when they haven't faced much adversity.

Kentucky is playing the same style of ball all the cool kids are this season. Or at least the style UNC and Michigan State share, with a rapid tempo and the incredible number of turnovers that accompany it. Kentucky has more height than the Spartans, on par with the Heels, and both teams naturally eschew the three-pointer most of the time. Here's way another strong outside shooting night from Larry Drew and Marcus Ginyard can pay off, as Kentucky is horrible at defending the three.

The rest of the game will be decided on the interior matchups, however. Cousins vs. Ed Davis and Patrick Patterson on Deon Thompson will be the way things start presumably, but UNC has big men galore to stream off the bench, and as long as the starters can maintain their cool and avoid foul trouble, things should go well. Whoever wins the battles of rebounds and blocked shots should be able to control the game; everything else, from pregame talk to last year's recruiting grudges won't matter a bit after the ball is tipped. I think if the right Carolina team shows up, they can win this one handily. I'm just never sure which team leaves the locker room on any given evening.

John Wall Wants To Send UNC Home with an "L"

Truzenzuzex — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 23:57:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Reinke - AP

I'm sure John Wall woudn't mind putting one of these down on the Tar Heels.

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I think John Wall may have a bone to pick with North Carolina. He's downplaying it, but I really think that he feels jilted by Roy Williams & Co. Worse, he may feel outright disrespected, as though Williams thought him somehow unworthy of a scholarship offer, or some kind of "trouble."

Now, the story is well-known that Roy Williams called John Wall at one point in the process. It is also well known that Brian Clifton, the AAU coach responsible for Wall having to sit out two games this year, strongly disliked Roy Williams. What we really don't know is why.

A couple of Tar Heel blog posts offer some insight into this whole kerfuffle. This one essentially suggests that it's illogical for Clifton to like Krzyzewski and dislike Williams. I had to laugh at that, but you can't blame a Tar Heel fan for defending a coach that has brought them two national championships, or for disliking the coach of arch-rival Duke -- at least UK fans and Tar Heel fans share that particular emotion.

What is there, though, is this interesting point:

This is not to say Roy is not without his flaws. I also think it is possible that Roy or his staff may have mishandled interactions with Clifton leaving a bad impression.

Yes, that is possible, and quite frankly, Clifton is an unsavory and unreliable character, in my opinion, no matter what Wall thinks of him. So it's hard to blame ol' Roy if he was less than pleased about the prospects of having Clifton in the picture. But if you were Williams, and lacking a true point guard like he is now, would you let that stop you from recruiting a home-state player that is ranked as one of the best pure point guards in recent history?

More after the jump.

Then, there is this post that purports to explain why Williams did not recruit Wall, and this, at least, is plausible:

In addition, UNC has a phenomenal combo guard in Dexter Strickland and a top rated pure point guard in Kendall Marshall joining the squad in 2009 and 2010, respectively. A rumor once circulated that Marshall was even promised by Williams that he would not take any more point guards until 2011, as a condition for taking Marshall on so early (he committed at the end of his 10th grade season). Whether or not this is true, there’s no question that the addition of Wall would ruffle at least a couple of players’ feathers (or their parents’, which can be even worse). Tricky family politics and the weakening of fragile player egos is a headache Williams does not want.

If Kendall Marshall actually dictated to Williams the terms of his matriculation, that shows far more weakness in Williams than I would have imagined. What the author is essentially saying is that every other parent or guardian would be upset about Wall coming to North Carolina. I find that funny, and if true, belies the Williams' reputation as a strong personality who does the right thing for the right reasons.

There is also some discussion of Walls failure to qualify on the first test score being a concern, but as we well know, Wall is a very good student and is approaching it with the same competitive spirit as he approaches his basketball. Wall has proven himself to be a young man of exceptional character, and if Williams could not see past his first non-qualifying entrance exam score, then his blindness would belie his outstanding record as a recruiter.

Then, there is this:

Finally, Wall has a handler named Brian Clifton who has gone on record as saying he hates UNC. One of his biggest concerns is control over Wall’s use, and control over who his NBA agent will be. Clifton knows that Williams will never work through him, or even keep him in the loop. Roy Williams recruits players, not handlers or influencers. This has lost UNC recruits in the past (like Delvon Roe). The reasons for the strict rules on recruiting are part of Williams’ principles that keep his program, and his conscience, clean. The presence of Clifton and all the tampering and agenda inserting that he would bring is a mess Roy Williams won’t desire to clean up.

I'm quite confident Calipari is not "working through" Brian Clifton in any way, so this is just a bunch of hooey. Wall can have whatever agent he wants when he decides to go on to the next level. There is no reason to believe that Roy Williams had more (or less) reason to be concerned about Clifton than Calipari did. This is nothing more than an attempt to use Williams' reputation as a "man of principle" (hear that, Kansas?) to cast aspersions on Wall, suggesting Brian Clifton's and Wall's interests are one and the same.

Larry Vaught takes up arms against the UNC fans attacking John Wall's character, which is really an unfortunate thing for fans of any stripe to do. Nobody could disagree that Brian Clifton is a suspect guy, but don't you think Williams could have made an offer contingent on the understanding that Clifton stayed away? Sure, he could have.

But he didn't. Good for us.

In the end, what was Carolina's loss is clearly our gain. We got an outstanding young man who works as hard in the classroom as on the basketball court. I hope he keeps his emotions under control on Saturday, although that could be difficult. I am quite confident that he feels kicked to the curb by Williams, and I expect beating his team would make Wall especially happy.

Around the ACC: 12.2

MRickman84 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 13:36:20 -0000

It was a rocky start to the Challenge with the ACC going 0-3 with the UVA, State and Wake losses, but the conference bounced back a bit in the second slate of games. Today will decide whether the ACC will win its 11th straight ACC/Big Ten Challenge.

NC State 53, Northwestern 65

So what was going on in this game? Two starters for State--Scott Wood and C.J. Williams--both had 0 points in a combined Tossed in with Javi Gonzalez's performance, those three starters combined for 3-21 shooting. Tracy Smith had an inspired game with 23, but Michael Thompsons's 22 points and Northwestern's 49% shooting (43% from 3) were enough to give the Wildcats the W.

Wake Forest 58, Purdue 69

We all know how this turned out. Nothing to see here. Turnovers, Purdue making 14 more FTs and the Boilermakers taking 12 more shots than the Deacs really told the story. E'Twaun Moore, JaJuan Johnson and Robbie Hummel combined for 54 points in the win.

Maryland 80, Indiana 68

This one was close for a long time, but the Terps pulled away in the last 5 minutes. Greivis Vasquez continued his poor shooting, going 4-14. He's gotta figure this out and fast, although he had 23, 5 rebounds and 8 assists. 13 of his 14 pionts came off FTs. Vasquez's shooting has obviously suffered, but he is becoming a better point guard overall and is making better decisions (1.83 A:TO). Milbourne had 19 and 7, while Eric hayes added 14. Indiana did not shoot well at all, but Maurice Cheek led Indiana with 19 points in the loss.

UNC 89, Michigan State 82

In a rematch of last year's National Championship game, the Tarheels absolutely blitzed Michigan State in the first half, shooting lights out and looking unstoppable. The Spartans settled down in the second half, cutting the lead down, but in the track meet, UNC just had too much firepower. Ed Davis had a career game with 22 points and 6 rebounds. Larry Drew looked really strong, adding 18 points and 6 assists. UNC shot 58% while Michigan State shot 2-20 from beyond the arc.

Virginia Tech 70, Iowa 64

Props to Iowa for hanging tough in this game. Iowa is not a very good basketball team at all, but they played inspired basketball yesterday. It didn't help the Hokies' cause that they shot 4-15 from deep, but they committed only four turnovers and looked under control the whole game. Malcolm Delaney had 18 points and 5 assists. I don't know what to make of this VT team, but 5-1 with a loss against Temple doesn't look terrible. Let's see how they look in the rest of their non-conference schedule.

UNC 89, Michigan State 82

T.H. — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 04:52:57 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

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Tom Izzo has lost his number.

I'm not sure exactly how he lost is number, mind you. Perhaps he left it on the roof of his car as he drove off. Maybe it slipped between the cushions of the couch, or he left it on the back of his chair at the restaurant. His kids could have even dropped it while walking home from show and tell at school. But Tom Izzo has definitely lost his number.

Because UNC has Tom Izzo's number.

For the third straight game, Michigan State headed to the locker room at halftime with a double-digit deficit and having given up 50 or more points to UNC. The Spartans had since their last meeting molded themselves even more like Carolina, picking up the tempo and building a strong interior game, only to meet a more deliberate UNC team this time out. It was the Heels who slowed the pace down tonight. Sure they pushed the ball up the court after a missed shot and still treated every defensive rebound as the firing gun of a sprint, but when the easy bucket wasn't there they probed the defense with a patience I haven't seen in quite some time. Every possession seemed to have two, three, or four entry passes, until the right shot could be found, and enough times that shot was on the perimeter to keep the defense honest – Ginyard, Drew, and Strickland were a combined 4-7 from behind the arc and 12-17 overall.

More importantly, it seemed like the freshmen were beginning to find their rhythm. The first half run where UNC pulled away from a 21-21 tie happened with four freshmen on the floor. Dexter Strickland had his best game to date, including two blocks, and John Henson was a game changer with four blocks, three in the first half. In fact, Carolina's height kept Michigan State off-balance or most of the game, forcing them to shoot tentatively, and miss badly. Add to that their extremely cold shooting from behind the arc, and it was no wonder that it wasn't until late that the Spartans put together any sort of run.

Of course, the fact that they were able to cut the lead to six and missed two prime opportunities to tighten it further is still worrisome. This Tar Heel team has yet to manage a full forty minutes of quality play. Deon Thompson was particularly frustrating late with a bad three-pointer, and a three of his five turnovers coming in the last 1:16 of play. Thompson has yet to display his senior leadership role on the court, and it's beyond time he did.

Luckily, Larry Drew and Ed Davis are stepping in. Davis was 8-10 for 22 points while only drawing one foul all game, while Drew was almost perfect from the field and more crucially 5-6 from the line in the final minute at a time when both Marcus Ginyard and Dexter Strickland were only hitting iron. This team has started to gel, and if the playing time is going more to the starting five, the rest of the team is making the most of their time on the court. There were still plenty of mistakes to irritate Roy Williams – how many times did MSU beat the Heels down the court after Carolina scores? – but it was a good win and the kind of game UNC will have to play to walk out of Rupp Arena with a win this weekend.

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tarheels

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:46:35 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

When last we met.

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Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS

THE DEAN E. SMITH CENTER, CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA

9:00 P.M. (ET), TUESDAY

TV: ESPN (Dickie V, sadly)

Tarheel bullets:

You may recall that North Carolina had a pretty good squad last season: 34-4 overall, 13-3 in the ACC, National Champions.
Oh, and they posted two wins against the Spartans of Michigan State University by a combined margin of 52 points.
Four of five starters departed for the NBA.
6-1 thus far in the new season. Beat Ohio State by 4 points; lost to Syracuse by 16 (both games in New York).
Plenty of talent/depth remains. 10 players averaging at least 9 minutes per game.

Starter-plus-sixth-man (Zeller) statistical capsule (more stats here):

Pos	Player	Height	Year	Min/G	Pts/G	2pt%	3pt%	FT%	Reb/G	Ast/G
G	Larry Drew II	6'2"	SO	25.3	7.7	.526	.471	.625	2.3	6.7
G/F	Marcus Ginyard	6'5"	RS SR	30.3	11.4	.595	.474	.692	3.7	4.1
F/G	Will Graves	6'6"	RS JR	18.7	7.3	.440	.269	.800	3.7	0.7
F	Deon Thompson	6'9"	SR	26.9	17.7	.561	--	.800	8.9	1.4
F	Ed Davis	6'10"	SO	24.9	12.7	.680	--	.618	9.9	1.4
F	Tyler Zeller	7'0"	SO	16.0	10.1	.614	--	.773	3.9	0.4

TMadison has already provided us with a thorough rundown of the early four-factors profile for the new-edition Tarheels. I won't repeat everything he's already done.

The offensive strength of the team rests with the final three numbers in the "2pt%" column of the table above. Thompson, Davis, and Zeller are all scoring very efficiently near the basket. That's going to pose a major problem for MSU. In both our games against quality opponents to date (Gonzaga/Florida), the opponent's big men scored very efficiently--much more so than the opposing guards. Draymond Green and Delvon Roe, for all their strengths, don't have the height to match-up with taller players who can turn and score.

The trick will be to deny the Tarheel big men good position, limit them to one shot when they do get the ball in the post, and hope the UNC guards don't get hot. In Carolina's loss to Syacuse, Graves and Drew combined to make just 2 of 14 FG attempts against the Syracuse zone. (It also helped that the Orangemen posted an eFG% of 61.0%.) Might we finally see that zone defense Tom Izzo keeps claiming he's got the team practicing--at least to throw a different look at the Tarheels for a few possessions? More broadly, it'll be interesting to see whether Izzo has his guards hedge off perimeter shooters more than usual to try to deny clean entry passes into the post or pressure the UNC guards to try to take advantage of the turnover issues the Tarheels have displayed to date.

Generally, it's going to be on Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Chris Allen to take advantage of their experience and scoring abilities against the relatlively-less imposing UNC guards. Marcus Ginyard--the man who forced Evan Turner to turn the ball over 10 times--will have something to say about that, though.

UNC is a "long" team, as the NBA draft experts would say. Five of their top six players are 6'5" or taller. The team is averaing 5.9 blocked shots per game, led by Ed Davis' 2.6 blocks/game. Thankfully, MSU has shown a propensity for avoiding getting its shots blocked this season, ranking 7th in the nation in offensive block%. They'll need to create good looks near the basket, but probably not right at the rim, and knock down whatever open 3-point looks they get agains the UNC guards (opposing 3pt% = 37.3%).

This game feels more must-winnish than nonconference games (even those against top-ten opponents) typically do. Some of that is the revenge factor for last year's two blowout losses--the second on the game's biggest stage. But it's also a function of the ugly loss to Florida. Win this game and that loss becomes a narrow loss to a young, fairly-talented team that will likely be an NCAA Tournament team in three months. Lose this game and we fall clearly outside the top 10, having struggled or lost against all three quality opponents to date, and a #1 or #2 seed for the NCAA Tournament becomes a pretty steep uphill climb.

If this game is to be won, I expect it'll be done so in a high-scoring affair, with both teams taking advantage of the other's defensive weaknesses. Given that MSU's lineup is now pretty close to 100%--with Raymar Morgan (who, as always, is the X-factor offensively) coming off three straight appearnaces of 19+ minutes--it's now or not-until-the-22nd-vs.-Texas to show what this team can do when all the parts are clicking on offense. I don't think the Lucas-plus-Green-plus-one-or-two-other-guys-playing-efficiently offensive attack works in this one. [/excessively-hyphenated sentences]

P.S. Talor Battle and Co. win on the road to give the Big Ten a 1-0 lead. Reverse-jinx Sagarin-odds post working perfectly. [Laughs maniacally.]

Around the ACC: 11.30

MRickman84 — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 13:53:10 -0000

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A clean sweep yesterday, huh? Really nice to see FSU pull out a big win and Clemson win a thriller against Butler. Those wins are going to look great for the conference come March. The ACC/Big Ten Challenge starts tonight with Virginia vs. Penn State, so start getting geared up now.

NC State 69, New Orleans 52
State's defense really helped in this game, holding New Orleans to 35% shooting and just 24 points in the second half. The Wolfpack shot 8-16 behind the arc, with CJ Williams and Javi Gonzalez hitting a combined 5-10. Tracy Smith led the way with 20 points and 8 rebounds on 8-12 shooting. The Pack draw Northwestern next in the Challenge.

UNC 80, Nevada 73
Here we go again. The Tar Heels let a team hang around and end up pulling out a victory by under a dozen points. This is going to haunt them if it keeps happening this way. Deon Thompson stepped up again with 23 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists. Larry Drew II had a solid game as well, getting a career-high 10 assists to go with 12 points. Ed Davis had his most effective game this season too, finishing with 16. UNC went through a 5 minute drought that netted only two FTs and eight missed shots.

Clemson 70, Butler 69
Clemson needed this one. The loss to a solid Texas A&M team actually may have been a blessing in disguise, as it probably loosened the Tigers up. This one came down to the wire as Demontez Stitt (19 points, 3 assists) netted both FTs with 3.3 seconds to put the Tigers up one with 3.3 seconds. Butler went the length of the floor and called time out and got one last chance, but Trevor Booker (12 points, 8 rebounds) blocked the shot and gave Clemson the win.

The stats were in Butler's favor, with the Bulldogs outshooting and outrebounding Clemson, but the Tigers hit 5 more FTs and hit 2 more threes, which was just enough. Gordon Hayward led Butler with 20 points and 12 rebounds. The Bulldogs are going to walk away really hoping that they had taken at least one against Minnesota or Clemson, but will have another chance to prove themselves against Georgetown and Ohio State later on.

Florida State 57, Marquette 56
In another exciting finish, Solomon Alabi came through with about 12 seconds left and FSU's defense held, with Marquette turning it over on their last possession. This was the shocker of the weekend. Marquette looked downright great their last two games against Xavier and Michigan.

Florida State, despite their 6-1 record, has looked shaky at times and got blown out of the gym against Florida. It's great to see them put it together though. Alabi is a beast and Chris Singleton (18 points, 10 rebounds) is looking very good so far. Lazar Hayward led the Golden Eagles with 19 points and 10 rebounds. The 'Noles will take on Ohio State next in another chance to prove what they're made of.