SB Nation - Tyler Zeller

ACC Power Rankings: 12.8

MRickman84 — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:30:14 -0000

So this probably should have been done yesterday, but I really want to get in the habit of doing power rankings throughout the season. UNC occupies the top spot this week, with Duke coming in second, as both are coming off tough losses last week to strong opponents.

Let's take a look at who is where after the jump...

1.) UNC-- [W vs. Michigan State, L vs. Kentucky] UNC is getting better as was expected. The young guys are playing well and Larry Drew II looks a lot more comfortable. I'm still concerned about the Heels' bench, as Strickland looks a little lost out there and Henson just does not know what to do with his body. The Wear twins are eating up a ton of minutes without a lot of productivity. Tyler Zeller is a great player for them though and really makes the perfect sixth man. UNC gets another tough test when they head to Dallas to play Texas at the Cowboys stadium next week.

2.) Duke -- [L vs. Wisconsin, W vs. St. John's] I thought this Duke team was supposed to be able to shoot? Kyle Singler is looking average at best so far this year and is taking a LOT of shots. You know what you're getting out of Jon Scheyer week in and week out and that is a great stabilizer. Andre Dawkins has been spectacular so far and we are going to be seeing a lot more of him as Duke enters ACC play. Duke's big weakness is still down low--Zoubek and Thomas are just bad, but the Plumlees work hard and are good players.

3.) GT [W vs. Siena, W vs. USC] The Jackets were left out of the Challenge this year because of their finish last season, and that really is a shame as I believe they would have won their matchup and turned the tide for the ACC. Instead, Tech put a whooping on Siena and USC last week. GT is stellar in the frontcourt with Lawal, Peacock and Favors, but losing Iman Shumpert is going to be sidelined for 3-6 weeks with a knee injury.

4.) Clemson [L vs. Illinois, W vs. South Carolina] Clemson is looking like bi-polar Clemson again, surprise! This is a good, solid basketball team. They have 5 players averaging at least 9 points per game and Trevor Booker is almost averaging a double-double (13 and 9). Their problem is that they just lose focus (as seen by the terrible collapse against Illinois). I think they are a better team than Georgia Tech, but they just can't pass them until they show some consistency.

5.) Miami [W vs. Minnesota, L vs. BC] Yes, I know they lost their first conference game. But it was very close and came down to the buzzer. They picked up a great non-con win over Minnesota, but still have not really been challenged other than their last two contests. Dwayne Collins is very good, but there's a lot of pressure on him coming into conference play since two of Miami's three strong guards are newcomers (Malcolm Grant from Villinova and freshman Durand Scott.) James Dews can get it done too, but we will see just how much the 'Canes miss Jack McClinton after the 1st of the year.

6.) Wake Forest [L vs. Purdue, W vs. Gonzaga] After a disappointing loss at home to William & Mary, the Deacs took to the road for two very tough tests. After a hard-fought loss to Purdue, the Deacs looked like they finally clicked in a win over Gonzaga at the Kennel. If the Demon Deacons can use this as a momentum builder, they could enter the new year at 10-2. They will be tested by UNC-W, who has played some good teams tough, as well as Richmond, which received votes in the polls this week. Freshmen C.J. Harris and Ari Stewart are looking like the real deal, but the Deacs absolutely need to get consistency from their bigs and from Al-Farouq Aminu.

7.) Virginia Tech [W vs. Iowa, W vs. Georgia] I like VT. They're better than they look on paper, and their loss to Temple is not a bad one--the Owls almost pulled off the upset against Georgetown a few games ago. They easily could finish anywhere between 6th and 10th, but the combo of Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen should be good for at least 6 conference wins.

8.) Maryland [W vs. Indiana, L vs. Villanova] I've seen Maryland play 4 times now this year and I'm sorry, I just don't think they are very good. Greivis Vasquez takes way too many ill-advised shots and he is shooting 32%. Sean Mosley and Landon Milbourne are the strong points to this team and Eric Hayes keeps them calm sometimes, but they aren't deep and I'm not sold on their front court. The Terps were a hot pick to start the season, but they have to prove something to me before they can move up the board.

9.) Boston College [W vs. Michigan, W vs. Miami] Here we go again. It's the same old story every year. BC looks sparse on paper and then Al Skinner does a great job coaching his team to overachieve. It'll probably happen again this year and their last two wins are a big indicator of this. Reggie Jackson could be a great player, and BC gets bumped up a spot just from his nasty dunk against the 'Canes (on a terrible offensive foul call in the last 30 seconds) and his clutch FTs to seal the win. Raji, Jackson, Trapani is a great combo and they get a good effort out of Josh Southern too.

10.) Florida State [L vs. Ohio State, W vs. FIU] Florida State looked downright ugly against Ohio State. And downright ugly against Florida. But that win against Marquette was big, so they have that in them. Alabi, Singleton and Kitchen are a nice 1-2-3, but the 'Noles need to be getting more out of Xavier Gibson and Ryan Reid.

11.) NC State [L vs. Northwestern, W. vs Marquette] After their loss to Northwestern, I didn't think at all that the Wolfpack would beat Marquette. It was the furthest thing from my mind. State is 6-1, but they are a mess and there is just not much there.

12.) Virginia [L vs. Penn State, L vs. Auburn] Hey, at least Virginia has beaten Cleveland State, something Wake wasn't able to do last year. Sylven Landesberg is a heck of a player, but when your next two leading scorers are Mike Scott and Sammy Zeglinski, there's a problem there. Virginia is not very good.

Preview: Michigan State Spartans vs. North Carolina Tarheels

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:46:35 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

When last we met.

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Your MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS vs. the NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS

THE DEAN E. SMITH CENTER, CHAPEL HILL, NORTH CAROLINA

9:00 P.M. (ET), TUESDAY

TV: ESPN (Dickie V, sadly)

Tarheel bullets:

You may recall that North Carolina had a pretty good squad last season: 34-4 overall, 13-3 in the ACC, National Champions.
Oh, and they posted two wins against the Spartans of Michigan State University by a combined margin of 52 points.
Four of five starters departed for the NBA.
6-1 thus far in the new season. Beat Ohio State by 4 points; lost to Syracuse by 16 (both games in New York).
Plenty of talent/depth remains. 10 players averaging at least 9 minutes per game.

Starter-plus-sixth-man (Zeller) statistical capsule (more stats here):

Pos	Player	Height	Year	Min/G	Pts/G	2pt%	3pt%	FT%	Reb/G	Ast/G
G	Larry Drew II	6'2"	SO	25.3	7.7	.526	.471	.625	2.3	6.7
G/F	Marcus Ginyard	6'5"	RS SR	30.3	11.4	.595	.474	.692	3.7	4.1
F/G	Will Graves	6'6"	RS JR	18.7	7.3	.440	.269	.800	3.7	0.7
F	Deon Thompson	6'9"	SR	26.9	17.7	.561	--	.800	8.9	1.4
F	Ed Davis	6'10"	SO	24.9	12.7	.680	--	.618	9.9	1.4
F	Tyler Zeller	7'0"	SO	16.0	10.1	.614	--	.773	3.9	0.4

TMadison has already provided us with a thorough rundown of the early four-factors profile for the new-edition Tarheels. I won't repeat everything he's already done.

The offensive strength of the team rests with the final three numbers in the "2pt%" column of the table above. Thompson, Davis, and Zeller are all scoring very efficiently near the basket. That's going to pose a major problem for MSU. In both our games against quality opponents to date (Gonzaga/Florida), the opponent's big men scored very efficiently--much more so than the opposing guards. Draymond Green and Delvon Roe, for all their strengths, don't have the height to match-up with taller players who can turn and score.

The trick will be to deny the Tarheel big men good position, limit them to one shot when they do get the ball in the post, and hope the UNC guards don't get hot. In Carolina's loss to Syacuse, Graves and Drew combined to make just 2 of 14 FG attempts against the Syracuse zone. (It also helped that the Orangemen posted an eFG% of 61.0%.) Might we finally see that zone defense Tom Izzo keeps claiming he's got the team practicing--at least to throw a different look at the Tarheels for a few possessions? More broadly, it'll be interesting to see whether Izzo has his guards hedge off perimeter shooters more than usual to try to deny clean entry passes into the post or pressure the UNC guards to try to take advantage of the turnover issues the Tarheels have displayed to date.

Generally, it's going to be on Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers, and Chris Allen to take advantage of their experience and scoring abilities against the relatlively-less imposing UNC guards. Marcus Ginyard--the man who forced Evan Turner to turn the ball over 10 times--will have something to say about that, though.

UNC is a "long" team, as the NBA draft experts would say. Five of their top six players are 6'5" or taller. The team is averaing 5.9 blocked shots per game, led by Ed Davis' 2.6 blocks/game. Thankfully, MSU has shown a propensity for avoiding getting its shots blocked this season, ranking 7th in the nation in offensive block%. They'll need to create good looks near the basket, but probably not right at the rim, and knock down whatever open 3-point looks they get agains the UNC guards (opposing 3pt% = 37.3%).

This game feels more must-winnish than nonconference games (even those against top-ten opponents) typically do. Some of that is the revenge factor for last year's two blowout losses--the second on the game's biggest stage. But it's also a function of the ugly loss to Florida. Win this game and that loss becomes a narrow loss to a young, fairly-talented team that will likely be an NCAA Tournament team in three months. Lose this game and we fall clearly outside the top 10, having struggled or lost against all three quality opponents to date, and a #1 or #2 seed for the NCAA Tournament becomes a pretty steep uphill climb.

If this game is to be won, I expect it'll be done so in a high-scoring affair, with both teams taking advantage of the other's defensive weaknesses. Given that MSU's lineup is now pretty close to 100%--with Raymar Morgan (who, as always, is the X-factor offensively) coming off three straight appearnaces of 19+ minutes--it's now or not-until-the-22nd-vs.-Texas to show what this team can do when all the parts are clicking on offense. I don't think the Lucas-plus-Green-plus-one-or-two-other-guys-playing-efficiently offensive attack works in this one. [/excessively-hyphenated sentences]

P.S. Talor Battle and Co. win on the road to give the Big Ten a 1-0 lead. Reverse-jinx Sagarin-odds post working perfectly. [Laughs maniacally.]

Around the ACC: 11.24.09

MRickman84 — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 13:49:13 -0000

by Brennan Linsley - AP

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How about that Purdue-Tennessee game? Those two teams looked like top ten teams, and it was definitely a physical game to say the least. I'm excited to go more into Purdue's team as we look forward to next week's showdown in West Lafayette. As to the ACC, teams went 4-1 with the only loss being BC at the hands of Northern Iowa.

Boston College 69, Northern Iowa 81
UNI got a spectacular game from Kwadzo Ahelegbe, who was 14-17 from the floor, scoring 32 and adding 4 assists and 2 rebounds. Any time a guy goes 14-17 it's usually a combination of poor defense and the player just straight balling. UNI shot 65% as a team and 5-9 from deep. They also had just 5 turnovers on the day. That's usually a recipe for success. Corey Raji led BC with 18 points and 5 rebounds. Josh Southern and Joe Trapani added a combined 23 points and 11 rebounds in the loss.

Virginia Tech 71, Campbell 60
The Fighting Camels sure lived up to their name yesterday. Virginia Tech usually has a couple games like this (3 point win over Gardner-Webb last year, loss to Seton Hall), so it was good to see them get back under control and finish the game. J.T. Thompson set a career high with 17 points, while Malcolm Delaney added 15 on just 3-13 shooting.

UNC 93, Gardner-Webb 72
This game was a lot closer than the final score indicated. Gardner-Webb really hung in there. And once again, it was a combination of poor defense and turnovers that were stinging the Heels. Gardner-Webb hit 15 of 36 threes on the day, but a lot of those misses came near the end of the game when they were in desperation mode.

Deon Thompson is quickly becoming an All-ACC candidate and had another big night--22 and 10 on 9-10 shooting. Tyler Zeller and Ed Davis combined for 31 points and 18 rebounds, while highly-touted freshman John Henson continued to struggle with his production (Just 2 points on 1-3 shooting in 13 minutes).

Clemson 102, Winthrop 66
Now Clemson is doing it right so far. They are winning by an average of 35 points in their 4 wins. They're playing cupcakes like a lot of other teams, but they are just straight dusting people. Clemson had 6 players in double figures--Jerai Grant, David Potter, Tanner Smith, Andre Young, Noel Johnson and Trevor Booker--and 10 players played double-digit minutes. This is the way to see what you have on your bench and keep your starters fresh.

Maryland 79, Chaminade 51
Maryland looked shaky early on and it could be a combination of the trip to Hawaii or the fact that Chaminade really tries to get up for these games, but the Terrapins were able to take the lead with 7 minutes left in the first half and run with it. Sean Mosley led all scorers with 19 points and had 8 rebounds. Greivis Vasquez continues to struggle with his shot (2-7), as he is just 28.6% in the early goings.

Around the ACC: 11.20.09

MRickman84 — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:54:13 -0000

Good morning. Yesterday was sure a shaky day for the ACC. UNC pulled it out after collapsing again in the second half--which they are quickly making a habit of. GT lost a tough one to Dayton (and the CAA is looking rather good so far, with UNC-W knocking off Penn State and William & Mary beating Richmond, not to mention Hofstra putting up a good fight against UCONN the other day.) The conference as a whole is looking pretty strong, especially compared to the struggles of the Pac-10 and the SEC (which is just abismal this year).

UNC 77, Ohio State 73:
UNC dominated early on, with help from Ohio State's horrendous shooting, but a hot streak from the Buckeyes brought them back in the game. UNC obviously has a lot inside, with Deon Thompson leading the way (15 points, 12 rebounds). The rest of the bigs--John Henson, Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis and the Ware twins--combined for 19 points.

This Tar Heel team is tough to figure out. They definitely do not have the poise that previous UNC teams have had, and it is not completely clear who the leader is going to be--Marcus Ginyard (13 points, 3 steals) stepped up after being chewed out by Roy Williams last night and Will Graves and Thompson have the potential to, but there is not guaranteed go-to guy. Evan Turner led the Buckeyes in the loss with 23 points and 10 rebounds, but had a glaring 10 turnovers.

Dayton 63, Georgia Tech 59
This one was never a guaranteed win for Georgia Tech, and actually, I considered them the underdog coming in. GT may have more individual talent, but Dayton is a better basketball team. I don't doubt that the Yellow Jackets will improve this year, but they are going to go through a 2009 Wake Forestesque stretch of games (not to mention they have Paul Hewitt as their coach). Chris Johnson lall scorers with 19 points (7-13 shooting, 4-8 from 3PT). Freshman sensation Derrick Favors had a good game, with 10 points, 6 rebounds and 2 assists. Gani Lawal had 9 and 8, but EIGHT turnovers. The Ramblin' Wreck were doomed by committing 26 turnovers and shooting 55% from the FT line.

Miami 74, Tulane 54
The Hurricanes moved to 3-0 on the year with a 20 point victory over the Green Wave. Dwayne Collins has a monster game, with 23 points, 14 rebounds and 3 assists on 8-8 shooting. Durand Scott also looked impressive, finishing with 10 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists. The 'Canes had a 19-4 run in the second half and will take on UNC-W today at 3 P.M.

Virginia 79, Rider 46
Virginia smoked Rider. Rider had beaten Mississippi State and Lehigh already, so I figured Virginia might have a little trouble pulling away, but good defense (Rider shot 33%) and balanced scoring really helped the Cavaliers. Mike Scott paced the Cavs with 17 and 9 on 8-9 shooting. Sylven Landesberg added 10, Sammy Zeglinski and Jeff Jones had 10, and Calvin Baker and Mustapha Farrakhan had 8. Virginia shot 52% and 44% from beyond the arc.

Coaches vs Cancer SBNation Roundtable

Avinash — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 10:03:48 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Mike Montgomery takes the Golden Bears on the road. How well will Cal perform under the Madison Square Garden lights?

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We take a quick break from our Furd hatred (although there's plenty of places to discuss it!) to get ourselves focused on the tipoff of a big big weekend in Cal hoops. Coaches v. Cancer and the big women's hoops showdown vs Baylor! All this plus the Big Game! What more could you ask for this pre-Thanksgiving weekend?

To kick off this great weekend, we all decided to take CGB into new territory and try and figure out all our potential opponents for this tournament at once. Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician (Syracuse), Carolina March (North Carolina), and We Will Always Have Tempe (Ohio State) have all set down for an unprecedented four way hoops roundtable!

What we did was take two questions to each group and answered two from each, ending up with four six question interviews that give you a little taste of each team. So if you want to find out more about each team, plus see our answers to everyone else's questions, you'll have to check out each site.

You can view our interviews with all three: Click here for Nunes Magician, here for Carolina March, here for WWAHT! We start off with the team we face today, the Orangemen.

Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magican (Syracuse)

1) How has Syracuse handled the loss of superstar player Jonny Flynn to the NBA?

By replacing him as best we can. It's clear that freshman Brandon Triche is no Jonny Flynn, at least not yet. But he does ensure that the drop-off won't be as severe as it could have been. Coupled with junior Scoop Jardine, the duo will take turns running the SU offense. If Jonny Flynn was Peyton Manning, Triche/Jardine are going to be our Trent Dilfer in 2001. We're not going to ask them to win the game for us, we just want them not to lose it.

2) Briefly describe your 2-3 zone defense. How good is it this year? How effective can it be against a team like Cal, who has a number of excellent perimeter shooters?

Well first here's why the 2-3 zone is so important for us. The loss to LeMoyne? We played man-to-man the entire time, thanks to Boeheim feeling the need to drill it into the heads of the players how lacking their defensive skills were. Since then the Orange have proven themselves pretty adept on zone defense against lesser opponents, causing 60 turnovers in two games so far. Boeheim himself went on record after the most recent win to say this is now the best he's seen the SU defense in a long time.

Of course, if there's any death-knell for the 2-3 zone, it's a hot hand from three-point range. If someone's shooting lights-out, that almost always spells doom for the Orange (and most opponents). If that's the case against Cal, the Orange are going to have to try and maintain control of the game tempo, which has been fast. Unlike recent teams this SU squad likes to run on offense and with athletes like Wes Johnson and Kris Joseph, they'll want turn it into a track meet if they can. Not to mention a certain bigtime shooter of their own, Andy Rautins.

We'll learn a lot about the Orange against Cal. Probably 100 times more than we did in the LeMoyne game or the two previous games.

We Will Always Have Tempe (Ohio State)

Tell us about your point guard situation. Is the offense running smoothly? One of the best ways to slow Cal's offense is to disrupt PG Randle at the point of attack, but it requires an extremely quick defender to stay in front of him; you guys got anyone like that?

Thad Matta has finally decided that the only way Ohio State will be a consistent offensive basketball team is to put the ball in the hands of its best player as often as possible. Thus, Evan Turner is getting a lot of looks at the one, with PJ Hill and Jeremie Simmons supplementing his efforts. The offense has looked good in the early going, and surprisingly so behind the arc. But this is against James Madison and Alcorn State, so it's tough to make an informed assessment just yet. Right now, Turner is very good at improvising, driving the lane, and rebounding, but his sharing skills still seem to need work.

I imagine Ohio State will try to keep a man on Randle at all times, but Thad Matta can be awfully fond of the zone against good perimeter teams. I'm not all that familiar with Cal's offense, but if Matta elects to go man-to-man, I think Ohio State will alternate between putting David Lighty - our best defensive player - and Turner - by far our most athletic - on Randle. Should be a fun match-up to watch either way.

Ohio State has had a lot of transition over the past few years, watching player after player after player go to the NBA. While they did make the NCAA Finals the other year, they also were a NIT team recently and were knocked out by Sienna last year. Do you believe that it might be more prudent to recruit slightly worse players that would stay for more than 1 year than the truly elite players that have been coming through?

This is something I'm quite torn over. I like seeing Matta recruit the dickens out of the Midwest, but I don't like seeing Ohio State becoming a Big Men factory. Our last two biggest recruits - Kosta Koufos, then BJ Mullens - were massive, massive disappointments at Ohio State, and have made it that much harder to understand Matta's recruiting strategy. Still, when those recruits come in and actually do perform, they have achieved some pretty ridiculous highs; Ohio State was just a few bad breaks away from ruining Florida's second championship run, and if they had managed to beat the Gators, few would be questioning Matta's recruiting strategy. But, of course, those are all ifs, and people care more about what actually happened than what came close to happening. Personally, I like what Matta's doing, but if he doesn't start producing some better tournament teams, a shift in the dynamics of his recruiting strategy may be necessary.

Carolina March (North Carolina)

1) The Tar Heels lost a lot of talent off a national championship squad. What's left? Even with the incoming freshmen, is there enough to justify a Top 5 preseason ranking?

What's left? More than you think. None of the freshmen have yet to crack the starting lineup, and there's a reason for that. Marcus Ginyard was the defensive heart of the team through the Hansbrough years, only still around because due to an injury last season. Ed Davis and Deon Thompson were formidable post presences in their own right on last year's team, and Davis especially should be phenomenal this year. Larry Drew's getting a lot a grief for not being Ty Lawson, but even Lawson wasn't Lawson at the start of his sophomore season; he'll improve and impress. And then there's Tyler Zeller and five freshmen; UNC won't hurt for wins this season.

That being said, none of this justifies a preseason Top 5. The Heels are at present overrated, but they're not alone in that regard. Everyone remembers the two or three true freshmen who have truly elevated their teams over the last few years, and have generalized that to all highly-rated freshman. Duke and Kentucky, to name two teams that quickly come to mind, are equally overrated. The team with the experience of years playing together have an advantage that shouldn't be taken lightly.

2) There've been a lot of hated Dukies you've had to deal with over the years. Who's the one you want to punch in the face the most?

Ah, the endless debate, always being hashed out in coffee shops and bars in Chapel Hill. There's no real wrong answer here, but you have to first recognize that J. J. Redick took being punchable to new heights at Duke. First, by parlaying two skills (excellent free throw shooting and a quick-release three-pointer that worked well with Duke's perimeter screens) into enough glowing media profiles you'd think he was Jesus in hightops. Then he'd compound it by being an ass on the court, only to garner more glowing profiles for how brave he was to suffer the cruel insults of opposing fans. Heavens forfend a basketball fan outside of Durham should deign to say something mean about our poor little tortured poet.

That being said, his would not be the face I'd punch. (And only because I wouldn't want to read the articles on how heroic he was to suffer such a blow) No, I'd have to go with with the ur-annoying Duke guard [1], Steve Wojcjechowski. What he lacked in skill, he made up for with extreme annoyance, constantly slapping the court [2], and otherwise being the apple of Vitale's eye. But his biggest sin is post-graduation, when he moved up the bench to be an assistant coach. There is an unspoken compact between Duke players and Carolina fans - after four or five years, they go away. Because I still have to suffer Wojcjechowski on my TV is grounds for face-punching.

[1] It can be argued that Bobby Hurley was the ur-annoying Duke guard, but Wojcjechowski has one attribute Hurley lacks, mainly a thorough failure on the national stage during his time in Durham.

[2] One of the great moments in the UNC-Duke rivalry that never makes the highlight clips was when UNC point guard Ed Cota brought the ball up the court against Wojcjechowski. The defender leaned down and slapped the floor, only to have pick that moment to drive past him like he was, well, bending over a slapping the floor in the middle of a basketball game. Who does that?

Poll

Cal will ______________ game(s) in the Coaches v. Cancer Tournament.

Win both

33 votes

Win against Syracuse, lose the second

44 votes

Lose against Syracuse, win the second

18 votes

Lose both

13 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

UNC 88, Florida International 72

T.H. — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 02:50:39 -0000

by Gerry Broome - AP

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Let's face it; these early opponents, Florida International and N.C. Central are not good teams. They both had 20 losses or more last year. The only way these games will be particularly noteworthy is if Carolina stumbles and flails. With a comfortable sixteen-point margin, that obviously didn't happen. So what can we learn from this year's debut?

First of all, UNC is tall. FIU played two players 6'5" or taller outside of garbage time. Carolina played only three people smaller than that. And yet the Heels were driving the tempo, as anyone would expect after watching a Roy Williams team, nabbing 10 steals and generating 20 turnovers, all in the course of 86 possessions. The basic philosophy hasn't changed.

Deon Thompson has though, putting together his best overall game with 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 3 steals, while putting in a level of effort I don't remember seeing from him last year. For this team to succeed, he's going to have to take on more of leadership role on the court, and tonight was a good start. Larry Drew and Marcus Ginyard also had good games in the backcourt, and Ed Davis had an impressive four blocks.

And the bench? The five freshmen, along with Tyler Zeller and Justin Watts, who got the most playing time combined for 12 made shots, 9 rebounds, and 11 turnovers. It was sloppy, nervous play you'd expect from a bunch of young players put on the court to run at the speeds UNC prefers to play at. Their games will get better, in the meantime they get to leave the Smith Center with their first win.

And since the comparisons will be inevitable, let's briefly flashback to the opening game of the 2005-06 season. David Noel, Reyshawn Terry, and some goofy-looking kid named Tyler eked out an 83-80 win against basketball powerhouse Gardner-Webb. The style of play was similar, heavy on steals and their own turnovers. Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose...

Coming and Going - A Look at ACC Basketball in 2009-10, Pt. I

Ben Broman — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 22:25:02 -0000

This is a project that we as a blog have been working on for quite awhile. Yes, it's out of order (shouldn't a football preview be here?), but Maryland's a basketball school first and foremost, dagnabbit! Plus, we got the idea during March Madness and just ran with it. All three of us put in work on it, with homertuck bearing the brunt of it, and there's a boatload of raw data behind it, which you'll see in a few days.

Below, you'll find a team-by-team analysis of what exactly is being lost - through graduation, the NBA, or Europe -and who exactly is coming in - ie, the recruiting class, and their rankings - for each ACC basketball team. A couple of predictions accompany this. We realize that a lot could change between now and November, which is why we include three different possible predictions - a Best Case, a Worst Case, and our own prediction, a fusion of the two.

While we realize that basketball doesn't use the divisions, reading 12 of these reports at once is darn near impossible. For that reason, and the lack of a clear division of basketball teams, we borrowed the divisions concept from football. Today, we break down the six Atlantic teams: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia, and Virginia Tech. Tomorrow, check back to see the Coastal Division. On Thursday, we'll publish a companion piece of sorts - a visual aid, loaded with graphs to help you make sense of all this.

So, without any further ado, make the jump and get to reading.

Duke

2009 Recruiting Class:
Mason Plumlee 6' 11" Center: 98 grade
Ryan Kelly 6' 10" Forward: 97 grade

With Jon Scheyer going into his senior season and Greg Paulus already gone, many Terp fans may be wondering what awkward-looking white player they'll have to root against in the future. Have no fear: Coach K is bringing in two of them for next season in Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee. The bad news: Kelly and Plumlee are ranked #20 and #55 overall by Rivals, respectively.

Overall Class Ranking: #9 (ESPN), #9 (Scout)

Players lost to graduation/NBA/Europe:
Greg Paulus (G) - Graduation (4.9 ppg)
David McClure (F) - Graduation (1.9 ppg)
Gerald Henderson (G-F) - NBA (16.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg)

Overall, Duke doesn't lose too much next season, especially when compared with other ACC schools. They only lose 28% of their three-point baskets, 35% of their assists, 24% of their blocks, 30% of their points, 26% of their rebounds, and 24% of their steals. Maryland and Virginia are the only other schools that lose less than Duke, and that is in Maryland's best case scenario of Vasquez returning. Add in the fact that Duke brings in a good true center in Mason Plumlee and a nice forward to replace part of the void lost by Gerald Henderson, and the Blue Devils again look like a possibly scary team in 2009-2010. Duke's only other loses aside from Henderson are back up point guard Greg Paulus and seldom used forward David McClure. Also, watch out for the development of Kyle Singler and Jon Scheyer (pictured with a traditional Scheyerface). The man with the funny faces really improved towards the second half of last season and he'll be counted on to pick up the 16.5 ppg lost by the departure of Henderson.

Best Case - Duke is Duke, Plumlee is actually a good white guy center that isn't a bust for Duke, and the Blue Devils actually show up in the NCAA tournament and make it to the elite eight under the leadership of Scheyer and Singler. The Blue Devils dominate the ACC, and rack up a 13-3 ACC record.

Worst Case - Plumlee and Kelly are two more awkward looking white guy busts, Scheyer quits the team after seeing thousands of pictures of his face again at the Comcast Center, and Duke again fails to make it past the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament after having a 10-6 ACC season.

Testudo Times Prediction - Duke is Duke but doesn't live up to the media hype yet again. The Blue Devils finish with a 12-4 ACC record, continue their dominance and win the ACC tournament, and then bow out of the NCAA tournament in the sweet 16.

Georgia Tech

2009 Recruiting Class:

Derrick Favors 6' 9" Power Forward: 98 grade
Mfon Udofia 6' 2" Point Guard: 93 grade
Kammeon Holsey 6' 8" Power Forward: 92 grade
Daniel Miller 6' 10" Center: 91 grade
Glen Rice Jr. 6' 4" Shooting Guard: 89 grade
Brian Oliver 6' 6" Small Forward: 87 grade

Georgia Tech's recruiting class is highlighted by one name: Derrick Favors (pictured below). Rivals' third best player in the country is most likely a "one and done" but he's joined by five others, including three who are ranked in Rivals' top 80.

Overall Class Ranking: #7 (ESPN), #5 (Scout)

Players lost to graduation/NBA/Europe:
Lewis Clinch (G) - Graduation (15.5 ppg)
Bassirou Dieng (C-F) - Graduation (1.2 ppg)
Gary Cage (G) - Graduation (0.7 ppg)
Alade Aminu (F) - Graduation (11.8 ppg, 8 rpg)
Gani Lawal (F) - Undecided (15.1 ppg, 9.5 rpg)

Georgia Tech had a tough year in 2009-2010, limping to an 11-18 (2-14 ACC) record. But Tech's head coach Paul Hewitt is hoping to erase memories of last season by bringing in a top 10 recruiting class to replace four departing seniors and possibly sophomore Gani Lawal. Hewitt survived the 2-14 ACC performance of last year but if he doesn't start to produce, the natives might become restless and attack - where do you think they'll go first? For Hewitt's head. Whether or not Lawal returns will have a huge impact on the success of the Yellow Jackets in 2009-2010. If Lawal does come back, Tech will lose 33% of their point production from last season but if he doesn't return to school, that number jumps up to 54%. A similar story holds true for rebounding where the return of Lawal means Tech only loses 28% of their rebounding if Lawal is back. But if Lawal leaves, that number will pump up to 56%.

Best Case - Tech's young guys perform at a very high level and bully around some of the other ACC teams to a 10-6 record.

Worst Case - Lawal leaves and Favors doesn't live up to their hype. Tech improves on last year, but finishes 5-11 in ACC play.

Testudo Times Prediction: Paul Hewitt might have saved his job by bringing in a top ten recruiting class following last season's horrible 2-14 ACC finish. Even though injuries might have played a role in that final record, the head coach is normally the one who gets the axe, no matter how valid the excuse might be. With their new recruiting class coming in, this will be a very different Tech team. Expect the Yellow Jackets to improve by 7 wins in 2009-2010, finishing with a solid 9-7 ACC record and returning to the NCAA tournament.

Miami

2009 Recruiting Class:

Durand Scott 6' 5" Shooting Guard: 93 grade
Garrius Adams 6' 5" Shooting Guard: 91 grade
Donnavan Kirk 6' 8" Power Forward: 91 grade
Antoine Allen 6' 2" Shooting Guard: 85 grade

Miami will need help next season filling the void left by first team All-ACC guard, Jack McClinton. They've brought in three shooting guards to do the job including Rivals' 33rd rated prospect, Durand Scott

Overall Class Ranking: #24 (ESPN), #19 (Scout)

Players lost to Graduation/NBA/Europe:

Jimmy Graham (F) - Graduation (4 ppg, 5.9 rpg)
Lance Hurdle (G) - Graduation (7.3 ppg)
Brian Asbury (F) - Graduation (8 ppg, 5 rpg)
Jack McClinton (G) - Graduation (19.3 ppg)
Dwayne Collins (F) - Undecided to NBA (10.6 ppg, 7.3 rpg)

Miami loses a lot of production from their graduating seniors and could be one of the top production-losing teams if junior Dwayne Collins (depicted dunking on Greg Paulus, but really, who hasn't done that yet?) decides to stay in the NBA, but word on the street says he'll be returning next season. Jack McClinton is Miami's biggest loss going into 2009-2010. The Maryland native was Miami's best player and also one of the best players in the ACC. Even if Collins returns, Miami will still be losing 57% of their three-point production for this upcoming season and 52% of their overall scoring from last season. Miami will be looking to build on their 7-9 ACC (19-13 overall) record from last season, but may find that task difficult.

Best Case: Collins returns and shooting guard Durand Scott helps to fill the void left by McClinton. Miami cruises to a 9-7 ACC record (+/- 1 game)

Worst Case: Collins does in fact leave and some of Miami's top 25 recruiting class struggles. Miami finishes with a 6-10 ACC record (+/- 1 game)

Testudo Times Prediction: Miami brings in a strong, top 25 class, but their supporting cast isn't too great, they don't have the home court advantage most ACC schools do, and they lost their best player from last year. Anytime you lose five players, there is an adjustment period. Look for this Hurricane team to be a category 1 storm, enough to cause some trouble, but not strong enough to make you run for higher ground. 7-9 (+/- 1 game) in the ACC and an NIT appearance sounds about right.

North Carolina

2009 Recruiting Class:
John Henson 6' 10" Power Forward: 98 grade
Dexter Strickland 6' 3" Shooting Guard: 95 grade
Leslie McDonald 6' 5" Shooting Guard: 95 grade
David Wear 6' 9" Power Forward: 94 grade
Travis Wear 6' 9" Power Forward: 94 grade

You know when you were younger and your mom made you do some annoying chore? Then, as soon as you got through it, she made you do another one? That's how every ACC coach not named Roy Williams (and maybe Mike Krzyzewski) feels year after year. After losing Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green, the Tarheels bring in a consensus top three class which is highlighted by Rivals' fifth ranked player, athletic power forward, John Henson.

Overall Class Ranking: #2 (ESPN), #3 (Scout)

Players lost to Graduation/NBA/Europe:
Marcus Ginyard (G-F) - Graduation (1.3 ppg, 2.7 rpg)
Bobby Frasor (G) - Graduation (2.6 ppg, 2 rpg)
Danny Green (G-F) - Graduation (13.1 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.3 bpg)
J.B. Tanner (G) - Graduation (1.1 ppg)
Jack Wooten (G) - Graduation (0.5 ppg)
Patrick Moody (F) - Graduation (1 ppg)
Mike Copeland (F) - Graduation (0.8 ppg)
Tyler Hansbrough (F) - Graduation (20.7 ppg, 8.1 rpg)
Ty Lawson (G) - NBA (16.6 ppg, 6.6 apg, 3 rpg)
Wayne Ellington (G) - NBA (15.8 ppg, 2.7 apg, 4.9 rpg)

Someone is going to have to explain to me how UNC has so many people on their roster. That's the size of GT's whole team now that they have scholarship reductions. I guess a lot of people want to walk on to UNC to average a point a game. Or does their roster include that JV team they also have? Anyway, UNC has 10 players leaving the team this year, either because of graduation or leaving early for the NBA. UNC is losing 74% of their points scored from last season, 93% of their made three-pointers, 78% of their assists and 56% of their rebounds. That is a whole lot of loss. Fortunately for the Tar Heels, their recruiting class is ranked in the top 3, as forward John Henson will look to fill the big shoes of Tyler Hansbrough. They also return senior forward Deon Thompson, and sophomore bigs Ed Davis (seen right, trying to annoy me by wearing a t-shirt) and Tyler Zeller. The development of Davis and Zeller could go a long way in determining how this Carolina team fares this season. With the departure of so many players, most of UNC's team will be unproven next season, so the Tar Heels could struggle early and could also fade down the stretch.

Best Case: Davis and Zeller ease of the pain of losing Hansbrough and UNC's top three recruiting class excels early. The Tar Heels don't miss a beat after winning it all last season and finish at 12-4 and 2^nd in the ACC.

Worst Case: UNC's new team takes a while to gel and some of the top-billed prospects don't live up to the hype. 9-7 ACC, 2^nd round of NCAA's.

Testudo Times Prediction: One thing you have to give UNC head coach Roy Williams credit for: he's a hell of a recruiter and the guys he recruits are normally slam dunks. But its Roy's in-game coaching that has been his limiting factor in his career. Expect UNC to start struggling a little but come together by midseason. Then expect the team relying so heavily on freshman players not used to the tough competition of the ACC to fade a little in the last few games. 10-6 ACC, 2^nd round of the NCAA tournament.

Virginia

2009 Recruiting Class:
Tristan Spurlock 6' 7" Small Forward: 91 grade
Jontel Evans 5' 11" Point Guard: 87 grade

After Dave Leitao stepped down, new coach Tony Bennett had some significant ground to make up on the recruiting trail. He managed to keep former Leitao commits, Tristan Spurlock (SF) and Jontel Evans (PG), who make up his first Cavaliers recruiting class.

Overall Class Ranking: N/A (ESPN), N/A (Scout)

Players lost to Graduation/NBA/Europe:

Tunji Soroye (C) - Graduation (1.8 ppg, 2.2 rpg)
Mamadi Diane (G-F) - Graduation (6 ppg, 2 rpg)

UVA doesn't lose much this off season and compared to the rest of the ACC; actually, they're losing the least in almost every category we've broken down. The biggest loss they'll suffer this offseason is in blocked shots, where they lose 26% of the shot blocking production from last year. Unfortunately for UVA, what remains on the team is nothing really new from last season and the two recruits coming in aren't exactly superstars. Tony Bennett will have his work cut out with this group and maybe he can catch lightening in a bottle. A lot will also depend on the development of guard Sylven Landesberg (pictured with all his gum-filled smiley goodness). Last year, the freshman led the Wahoos in points, was second in assists, and second in rebounds. Incoming players Tristan Spurlock and Jontel Evans will provide some nice new blood into the program but the undersized Evans might struggle when he gets to ACC play. This could definitely be a rebuilding year in Charlottesville.

Best Case: Sylven Landesberg establishes himself as an elite ACC guard and new head coach Tony Bennett changes the culture at UVA. The team surprises a lot of people and finishes with an 8-8 ACC record and a NIT appearance or a low seed in the NCAAs.

Worst Case: Same old story from last year, with just a little improvement. 5-11 ACC

Testudo Times Prediction: The Tony Bennett hire will help this team a lot - new system, blood into the program. But can the players Leitao recruited fit into and succeed in Bennett's system? Only time can tell. Expect Landesberg to improve and Spurlock to do well, but not well enough to pull UVA out of another unsuccessful season. 5-11 ACC.

Virginia Tech

2009 Recruiting Class:
Erick Green 6' 3" Point Guard: 88 grade
Cadarian Raines 6' 9" Center: 88 grade
Manny Atkins 6' 6" Small Forward: 87 grade
Ben Boggs 6' 3" Shooting Guard: 87 grade

Seth Greenberg's 2009 class isn't filled with any instant superstars but he does bring in four players all rated above an 87. They'll collectively try to offset the loss of last season's leading scorer, A.D. Vassallo.

Overall Class Rankings: N/A (ESPN), N/A (Scout)

Players lost to Graduation/NBA/Europe:

A.D. Vassallo (G-F) - Graduation (19.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg)
Cheick Diakite ( C ) - Graduation (3.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg)

Seth Greenberg will try to offset the loss of A.D. Vassallo by bringing in four solid freshmen and hoping that they can fill the void. This recruiting class seems to be typical Greenberg - nothing too flashy, but a group of solid players who are willing to work to get better. Greenberg might be one of the more under-rated coaches in the ACC when it comes to getting the best from his players. Tech does lose 40% of their made three-point attempts from last season, as well as 41% of their blocks, but other than that and losing Vassallo, they won't lose too much. If Malcolm Delaney and Jeff Allen (seen giving Maryland fans the bird) can step up and be leaders this could be a very good Tech team.

Best Case: Va. Tech builds off last year and rides Delaney and Allen to a surprising 11-5 ACC record (+/- 1 game), with this year's recruiting class tag-teaming to pick up for the production lost by the graduation of leading scorer A.D. Vassallo.

Worst Case: Jeff Allen is more focused on flipping off Terp fans than improving his game and the four incoming players don't adjust fast enough to the learning curve of ACC basketball. The team struggles, especially down the stretch, and limps to a 7-9 ACC record.

Testudo Times Prediction: Greenberg, while he can be obnoxious at times, is a fairly solid coach who gets the best out of what he has. Expect him to do the same this year and will his team to an 8-8 record (+/- 1 game) and sneak in as an NCAA tournament team.

Remember to check back in tomorrow and Thursday for parts II and III.

Previewing the Elite Eight Showdown: #1 UNC vs. #2 Oklahoma

dishingoutdimes — Sat, 28 Mar 2009 20:28:42 -0000

#1 North Carolina (31-4) vs. #2 Oklahoma (30-5)
South Regional Final
FedEx Forum - Memphis, Tennessee
Tip: 4:05PM Central Time, broadcast on CBS

Unflappable [uhn-flap-uh-buhl] (adj.) - not easily upset or confused, especially in a crisis.

Despite all the chaos surrounding the Oklahoma Sooners in their final weeks of the season, they have done nothing but impress in the NCAA Tournament so far. They have built solid leads in all of the games so far, and won each by double digit margins. More importantly, they appear to be clicking at the right time. Team chemistry seems stronger than ever and the guys seem to have a will to win. Their passes are crisper, their rebounding stronger, and their celebrations more emotional. Nobody who watched the last two weeks of the season would have predicted that the Sooners would navigate the tournament field this easily into the Elite Eight. And that is why they are unflappable - cool customers just like their coach, Jeff Capel.

Unfortunately though, Jeff Capel will be leading the Sooners up against his former rival, the North Carolina Tar Heels, who have performed similiarly in the NCAA tournament so far. In fact, most would argue that they have been more dominant. If you listen to most of the mainstream media talking heads, and even the fans, Oklahoma doesn't stand a chance.

The question is which team that's been steamrolling competition in the tournament, and doesn't get flustered under pressure, will punch their ticket to Detroit? An in-depth numbers breakdown will follow after the jump (click the link below).

The Teams

This section will offer a brief look at how the teams compare in various statistical categories and rankings. I'll provide the national ranking for each team for each category.

Offensive Efficiency (KenPom): North Carolina (1st), Oklahoma (4th)
Defensive Efficiency (KenPom): North Carolina (22nd), Oklahoma (38th)
Adjusted Scoring Margin: North Carolina (1st), Oklahoma (11th)
Points Per Game: North Carolina (90.5, 2nd), Oklahoma (79.2, 11th)
Possessions Per Game (Pace): North Carolina (76.1, 7th), Oklahoma (69.3, 96th)
Points Per Possession: North Carolina (1.19, 1st), Oklahoma (1.14, 6th)
Effective FG%: Oklahoma (55.5, 7th), North Carolina (53.4, 34th)

Both teams are offensive powerhouses. It's really pretty amazing when you consider the above statistics. These are both some of the most efficient offensive teams in the country. They are efficient for different reasons. Oklahoma is efficient on offense when they play the inside-outside game and drive to the rim. That creates more opportunities for them. Also, the Sooners are obviously more efficient when they get the ball to Blake Griffin. North Carolina is efficient when they can run the fastbreak. The Sooners are at their best when they run their offense through Blake Griffin just like North Carolina is at their best when they run their offense through Ty Lawson. He is ranked by KenPom.com as the most efficient offensive player in the country.

You can see the difference in styles in the possessions per game statistic which is a good proxy for the pace the team usually plays at. North Carolina typically plays the 7th fastest game in the country, while OU plays more of an average tempo - a mix between a few fast breaks, but mostly half court.

The bad news for both teams is that only one team has won the title in the past 5 years ranked outside of the top 5 in defensive efficiency. That team (Florida in 2007) was ranked just 12th, and was also the most efficient offensive team that particular year. Perhaps the old mantra "defense wins championships" is true. If it is, then Connecticut (3) and Louisville (2) have reason to be extremely hopeful, and Michigan State (10) and Missouri (11) should be happy with their chances too. Amazingly, all those "defensive" teams are on the same side of the bracket. Both UNC and OU are ranked outside the top 20. The winner of this game could be decided by which defense decides to step up.

Meet The Tar Heels

Starting Five

Tyler Hansbrough (F, 6'9" 250 Senior) - 21.3ppg, 8.1rpg, 85.6% FT
Deon Thompson (F, 6'8" 240 Junior) - 10.7ppg, 5.9rpg, 64.2% FT
Danny Green (G/F, 6'6" 210 Senior) - 13.2ppg, 4.8rpg, 2.8apg, 84.2% FT, 41.3% 3P
Wayne Ellington (G, 6'4" 200 Junior) - 15.8ppg, 4.9rpg, 2.7apg, 40.2% 3P
Ty Lawson (G, 5'11" 195 Junior) - 16.2ppg, 6.6apg, 3.47 A/TO ratio, 48.5% 3P, 81.4% FT

Rotation Subs

Ed Davis (F, 6'10" 220 Freshman) - 6.7ppg, 6.7rpg, 59.6% FT
Bobby Frasor (G, 6'3" 210 Senior) - 2.8ppg, 1.8rpg, 1.5apg, 46.2% FT

You Might Still See

Will Graves (F, 6'6" 245 Sophomore) - 4.0ppg, 2.6rpg, 88.9% FT
Tyler Zeller (F/C, 7'0" 220 Freshman) - 3.7ppg, 2.3rpg
Larry Drew (G, 6'1" 180 Freshman) - 2.1apg, 41.2% FT

Not surprisingly for a team that is demolishing most people, UNC has a lot of experience. They start 2 seniors and 3 juniors. Two of the juniors (Ellington and Lawson) could probably go to the NBA and get drafted. Not only that, but all of these guys have a significant amount of NCAA tournament experience with some deep runs into March.

It all starts with Ty Lawson. The shifty, speedy 5'11" guard can score and create. Jeff Capel would call him a "playmaker". He is the second leading scorer on the team and dishes out about 7 assists per game. The offense runs through him. He'll look to set up his teammates first but he'll shoot the ball too. Don't leave him open beyond the arc because he basically makes about 1 out of every 2 shots he takes from 3-point land. According to KenPom.com he is the most efficient offensive player in the nation and has the 10th best true shooting percentage nationally (accounting for free throws and 3 pointers). Playing good on ball defense with Lawson will be very key. Whoever draws Lawson needs to bring their A-game.

Ty Lawson does it all for the Tar Heels

Their second offensive force is Tyler Hansbrough, the reigning national player of the year (Naismith winner). He is the 20th most efficient offensive player in the country, probably because he is 3rd best nationally at drawing fouls and getting to the line. He draws about 8 fouls per game and once he gets to the line, he nails free throws at a 85.6% clip. This will obviously be Blake Griffin's defensive assignment if they play some flavor of man defense. I honestly think that this matchup of two of the greatest players in college basketball today will be allowed to happen without two many whistles. Both players are very physical and I think the refs are going to let them play unless a foul is really obvious. Blake has stepped it up in the tournament and neutralizing Hansbrough will be key, as you can't let Lawson AND Hansbrough hit their groove.

Beyond that, Deon Thompson is another big post presence (kind of reminds me of Syracuse's starting bigs). Wayne Ellington and Danny Green are two versatile wing players who are long and athletic enough to play defense, alter shots, and even get a block or two. They both can nail the three and shoot at a high percentage. Warren and Crocker will probably draw these two respectively. One will probably need to break even and another will probably need to win their matchup in order for OU to have a chance. The Sooners will have to worry enough about Lawson and Hansbrough - they can't afford to have Green or Ellington go off. I compare it to our game against Syracuse. They knew Warren and Blake were dangerous, but they couldn't afford to have a guy like Crocker play great. I'd say that neutralizing Ellington and Green is a big key for us.

North Carolina, like Oklahoma and Syracuse for that matter, does not have an exceptionally deep rotation. They only get about 28% bench minutes per game, which is only 235th in the country. Ed Davis and Bobby Frasor are the only two guys that really are a significant part of the rotation off the bench. Bobby Frasor does not take many shots and you can tell why - he shoots only 44.4% from inside the arc and only about 25% from outside the arc. He averages about 3 shots per game and about 2 out of every 3 shots is a 3-pointer, which is surprising given he only makes about 1 out of every 4 threes. Ed Davis is more dangerous as a bench big. He has the size and talent to outmuscle Ryan Wright on the low block, the size to shoot and rebound over Juan Pattillo. We might see with Jeff Capel bring Orlando Allen off the bench to go at Davis. Unfortunately, when Blake gets his rest, I think that Davis could get some productive minutes down low.

Keys To The Game

Keep up the intensity. The x-factor. The pizazz. The mojo. The swagger. Whatever it is, OU has got it back. They are playing loose and comfortable. They haven't seemed to let anything get under their skin this tournament. They need to maintain that, even though they are playing against arguably the most talented team in the nation.
Make Them Play At OU's Tempo. North Carolina thrives when it can play a fast tempo. They play well running up and down the floor and other teams make mistakes. Settling back into half-court sets and only taking the transition game when it presents itself will be key.
Austin Johnson. He has to bring it on both sides of the court. He will be charged with shutting down Ty Lawson and keeping OU at a good tempo and clicking on offense.
Crocker, Taylor Griffin, or Willie. One of these three guys needs to score to compliment Blake Griffin. Crocker's game against Syracuse shows you how scary our offense is when we have a legit second scoring option. It makes the inside-outside game (basically our offense in a nutshell) much more effective.
No Deficit Early. It seems like so far in the tournament, the vast majority of teams that have been close (within 5) or leading through the 10:00 mark of the first half have won. I'm not saying a comeback in a basketball game isn't impossible, but against UNC it would be much tougher. More importantly, winning or hanging close through the first quarter of the game will give our guys quite a bit of confidence.
Avoid Falling Asleep In the 2nd Half. We always have a 5:00 to 10:00 period in the 2nd half where we seem to be just going through the motions. It happened against Syracuse for about 5 or 6 minutes. We need 40 minutes of good basketball against UNC.

Zeller to Play Wednesday

T.H. — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 23:50:57 -0000

This according to Steve Kirschner, the Associate Director of Athletics for Communications at UNC, who says, “It’s 99 percent that he’ll play tomorrow night”. This, of course in contrast to what Roy Williams said back at the end of January:

“Of course, there’s a chance, but I think it’s awfully stupid. He’s not been released to play yet. If he comes back and plays one game, then he loses a whole year. There’s always a chance, but again, I’ll say it’s not the smartest thing in the world to have happen, but he hasn’t been released yet. And he will not be released for at least, don’t hold me to this, but it’s three or four more weeks because he doesn’t go back to the doctors until then.”

The general word seems to be that Zeller was pushing to come back in, thinking this is a very good year to win a championship. UNC, although pretty deep in the post, has been soft on interior defense at times, and this can only help to have fresh legs legs as the season winds down.

Ginyard Out for the Year; Graves Suspended

T.H. — Wed, 04 Feb 2009 13:14:20 -0000

I've been guilty quite a bit this year of blaming UNC's not performing to expectations (and what a world it is when 20-2, 6-2 in conference is below expectations) on the absence of Marcus Ginyard. Once he would return to the lineup, I'd think, the teams' game would shift into high gear again, they'd run through the rest of the season and win it all. Also, there would be ponies and cake.

Well, the ponies won't be coming, and the cake is a lie; Marcus Ginyard is out for the season. He's been diagnosed with a stress fracture in his left foot, and will seek a medical redshirt, as he only found his way into three games so far this year.

Adding to that, the player who had probably seen the largest increase in playing time in Ginyard's absence, Will Graves, will also no longer be taking the court this season, as he's been suspended for as Wiliams put it, failing to "maintain the standards we expect of a Carolina basketball player." Although never a critical part of the team this season, Graves was playing 26.7% of minutes on the court and took more shots than anyone outside of the starting five. He also turned the ball over at a pretty high rate, but with Zeller and Ginyard out for the season, the loss of a third body body will come as a blow. Look for Bobby Frasor and Larry Drew to pick up most of the slack created by the absences.

Barring a sudden increase in either of those players performances with the increased playing time, this looks to be the UNC team that will be making an appearance in the tournament. It's one that's still very, very good, but prone to lapses where their perimeter shooting goes cold and thy flounder in a set offense. They're an extremely mortal team, and how they rebound from these setbacks will say a lot about the direction they're headed. Luckily, a home game against hapless Virginia is next on the docket, giving them time to adjust before traveling to Durham on Wednesday.