SB Nation - Dominique Keller

Brandon Paul and Mike Davis lead Illini past NIU, have I heard this before?

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 19:53:04 -0000

Yes the long awaited reaction to last nights intrastate match between the Illini and the Huskies of Northern Illinois has finally arrived. I feel that the win over the Huskies, while not as comfortable as the win over SIUE has taught us much mroe about how the Illini will perform this year as a team, and there is a lot more good than bad.

If nothing else the game showed us that Brandon Paul's earlier stellar debut against SIUE was no fluke, as he posted another 20 point game, this time doing all of his scoring in the first half. D.J. Richardson has not had the regular season scoring explosion to match Paul yet, but he is still contributing in no small amount putting in 31 minutes and getting steals and assists as the current second option for running the offense after Demetri. I have no doubt that the scoring torrents will come sooner or later though, just as we saw in the final exhibition game against Quincy.

Speaking of Demetri McCamey, I know its very early in the season, but it has become very apparent that DMAC is a completely different player than we have seen before, and in a very good way. DMAC had 10 points, 8 assists, 3 steals and a block. He even ended up being second in the rebound column with 5 (more on that later.) The only blemish on his stat sheet being his 4 turnovers. The stats however do not do justice to some of the coolest passes I have seen Demetri ever make, specifically finding Mike Davis for the easy points down low. I said before that when Demetri was out of the game, the offense does not move with the same rhythm or efficiency, and this was still true last night. But maybe it looks to our eyes even worse than it is because DMAC is getting it and running the offense that well. I know its premature to say so, but with stat lines and play like last night McCamey could very well be on his way to being a true replacement for Chester Frazier, but with the threat to still go off for 20 in a game, which is something different entirely.

My ~~last~~ next note on the game should be the so-so lackadaisical performance of Mike Davis. All he did was record 14 points, 17 boards, (4 offensive) and a couple blocks. Yawn. In all seriousness, this performance only seems to reinforce my belief that Davis will be First Team All Big Ten this year and that he is on his way to another big jump this year. This is Mike's second straight double-double, and doesn't look like he will be easily stopped from doing so against most teams. We already know he can score, but getting boards like he did last night, especially on the offensive end are hopefully a sign of things to come.

Overall the rotation of the big men is going much deeper than last year, where there were really only 3 players that got all the minutes down low last year, this year Tyler Griffey and Bill Cole have been getting very good minutes to spell Tis Davis and Dominique Keller, who got 10 points and 2 blocks in his own right.

Of course the who night wasn't all roses and happiness, the team had trouble keeping NIU from creeping back into the game on multiple occasions and the virtual disappearance of Mike Tisdale in the first half are things that both need to be addressed. The team definitely ratcheted down the defense in the second half, but the team defense was not as consistent as it needs to be in order to fully control a game like Bruce wants to. In future against other Big Ten teams that will defend you brutally and leave you bruised, this team may not be able to count on explosive wide open shots for Brandon Paul like the ones that carried the team in the first half.

The next two games of course are very much still warm up games, but I will be there on Saturday night to cover the Illini game against the Presbyterian Blue Hose. Yeah, yeah we all know the jokes. Am I being irrationally exuberant about this basketball team? Maybe I am, but I am going to enjoy top 25 winning basketball until someone can convince me otherwise.

The Lazy Blogger's Illini basketball and football preview

Joe Kutsunis — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:05:33 -0000

More photos » by Paul Battaglia - AP

Everything points to Juice sitting out the Northwestern game on Saturday with the high ankle sprain. Look for RS Freshman Jacob Charest to start in his place. (Minneapolis. AP Photo/Paul Battaglia)

Browse more photos »

Folks, I am a busy man, I've got alot going on in my life right now. I wont bother you with specifics, but suffice to say, looking at my computer today with the prospect of writing two game previews is much less appealing than it sounds. So I am going to take the lazy man's shortcut here and just combine the two into an unrepentant shortcut of a post.

First the football team. Lucky for me the Big Ten Network (please send me money) replays all of the football games over the course of the week, so I was able to reacquaint myself with the supreme victory over Minnesota from Saturday. Upon a second viewing, with the knowledge of how the game ultimately ended, I have had to reassess the Illini play overall. Adam Weber basically handed the Illini the game in the first half. He stayed in the pocket waaaay too long and took some very dumb sacks as well as throw passes so inaccurate that somewhere Eric Decker is weeping. He wasw much more on his game in the second half, and as a result the Illini defense looked no where near as good as earlier in the game. Basically what I am saying is, the defense is going to have to play better this week if we want to beat Northwestern. Other than Terry Hawthorne that is. That guy is all right.

On the other hand I really like the way Jacob Charest is throwing the ball lately he is hitting his receivers right in the numbers, and provided those receivers don't drop the passes again this week, the offense will move the ball. The real kudos must go to the offensive line who are opening holes for the backs and giving both Juice and Charest a lot more time to work with. You don't have a successful offense without a successful offensive line.

So as long as all that good stuff I just said keeps happening, the Illini should roll. 11am Saturday kickoff.

Now for the basketball team.

Its the big opening game of the real season, and Bruce has suggested he will go with the same starting lineup for last week's exhibition finale. Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis, Brandon Paul, D.J. Richardson and Demetri McCamey. No Jeff Jordan for his suspension, so the primary guard sub is going to be Legion, and like the exhibition, Dominique will get alot of action at the 3. Given their loss in OT to D3 Illinois College, SIUE should not pose a legitimate threat to the Illini, but I do want to see some all around better play. The games do count now, so I hope we will see some real dominance on the floor by Mike Davis. Everyone is hoping he will make another big jump this year, and there is no time like the present

Tip Off is tonight at 7.
Once again I will be running an open thread for both games. Please come keep me company.

Basketball Q&A with Blogging the Bracket.

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:01:35 -0000

The star studded week of basketball enthusiasm continues as we direct questions to Chris from Blogging the Bracket, SB Nation's resident bracketologist and basketball guru. Lets see what he says about the great grindy Big Ten.

HTTO: The Illini surprised alot of people by finishing second in the Big Ten and returning to the NCAA tournament. This year the team loses two starting guards in Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham, but gain several highly regarded freshmen, overall do you see the Illini taking a step forward or backward this year?

I think the Illini will take a bit of a step back without Frazier and Meacham, but they'll still be a contender for an NCAA bid, and maybe in the conference. Demetri McCarney is a good point guard, and if he's as motivated as the offseason chatter says he is, Illinois will have the right guy running the offense. Alex Legion HAS to be better than he was in his first year in Champaign. If Mike Tisdale can be more aggressive down low, the Big Ten better watch out. He already shoots well enough from the field and the foul line to be a force, but he's got to get himself more opportunities to up his scoring average of 10 per game. Mike Davis was only two rebounds short of averaging a double-double last season, so he's likely to have a huge year inside as well. If Bruce Weber can get good numbers out of Dominique Keller, you may see fewer three-guard sets this season.

The freshman class is a talented, local group. Weber has been criticized for not getting the big time local talent, and he did a nice job of quieting those critics with this class. D.J. Richardson's experience at Findlay Prep means he should adjust to the college game quickly. His defensive skills will help fill the void left by Frazier's graduation. Brandon Paul will be a versatile scorer, which the Illini needs. Joseph Bertrand should learn a lot from McCarney over the next two years and give Bruce Weber some good minutes at the point. Tyler Griffey, much like Keller, gives the Illini an inside option beyond Tisdale and Davis if he can show some consistency, especially on the rebounding front.

HTTO: The Big Ten has the makings of a very competitive season, with the talent gap seemingly the slimmest it has ever been. Is it still MSU's conference to lose, or will one of the many challengers take the title from them?

I really think the Spartans are going to miss Goran Suton in the middle and Travis Walton's defense, and that really gives Purdue, Ohio State, or if things break right, Michigan and Minnesota, the chance to steal the league crown from them. If the freshmen mature quickly, the Illini could even surprise and contend.

HTTO: Along those same lines, this looks like it could be a banner year for the Big Ten, with MSU going to the NCAA finals and Penn State winning the NIT and nearly all of the top talent from last year's teams returning do you see the conference flexing its muscle come tournament time? How many teams do you expect to come from the Big Ten in the NCAA tourney, and how do you rank it along with the other conferences this year.

The Big Ten is going to have a great chance to build on the strong showing it had in last year's postseason, especially with the Big East probably being a bit down and the Pac-10 likely being way down. Obviously, I think MSU and Purdue will get high seeds.

For the rest of the league, it's crucial that they make a real statement during the non-conference season. Otherwise, it could be a repeat of last season, where everyone outside of MSU, Purdue, and Illinois really beat the tar out of each other in the league and didn't have the wins outside of the conference to boost themselves out of the middle of the bracket.

From a bid perspective, I think the Spartans, Boilermakers, Buckeyes, Wolverines, Gophers, and Illini are a safe group of six. Beyond that, I feel the only two teams who don't have much hope this season are Indiana and Iowa. While Wisconsin may be down, I'm never going to discount a Bo Ryan-coached team. Northwestern has a real shot at getting their first-ever bid, but they cannot do their usual thing where they lose a headscratcher or two at the end of the year. Penn State will have some real momentum from their NIT triumph and they have a shot to get some decent wins at the Charleston Classic, but it may not be enough with how good the rest of the league will be.

HTTO: Illinois, the state that is, along with Indiana and Ohio routinely manufacture a lot of top tier basketball talent, but are also some of the most often "raided" states by other schools. Do you believe that the reputation of the Big Ten as a low scoring tough defense conference has hurt it in terms of recruiting? The up and down score happy ACC has enjoyed a more positive national reputation (and the benefit of the ACC/Big Ten challenge dominance.) In short what do you believe is the national perception of the conference, and how does it, in your opinion affect recruiting and performance?

Speaking as an SEC grad who grew up watching the Big East, I admit that I make plenty of jokes throughout the season about many Big Ten matchups setting basketball back to Naismith's time. But really, if you look at non-conference and postseason performance, the criticism is pretty unfounded. I mean, eight Big Ten teams have made the Final Four in this decade, albeit with only one winning (MSU in 2000). From a recruiting perspective, it's harder to say. I honestly don't spend a ton of time on recruiting over at my site because a lot of it is a crapshoot. And the Big Ten experience is a great example of this. Sure, Big Ten schools may sign as many McDonald's All-Americans as their counterparts in the other major conferences, but they do land a lot of talented players who believe in teamwork and are coachable. When you combine those two characteristics with the coaching talent in the conference, you're going to end up with teams that feature a lot of "diamonds in the rough" who go on to shock the experts

Pondering the Illini basketball starting 5

Joe Kutsunis — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 23:43:17 -0000

\With the losses of starters Trent Meacham and Chester Frazier to graduation, and the influx of several your freshmen,. the starting lineup for Bruce Weber's Illini is anything but set in stone. 3 starters return in DMAC, Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis, leaving two open spots, supposedly at guard.

Between the three freshmen guards, Alex Legion, Dominique Keller, and the possible return of Jeff Jordan, there certainly are alot of options to be explored.

Anyone who has watched a Bruce Weber coached team over the last decade knows that the way to get onto the court is to play defense, which is why if Jeff were still on the team he would seemingly be a natural replacement for the equally gritty Chester Frazier. As of today, Jeff is still not on the team, and were he to rejoin, it would be in the form of a walk on. The second would be obvious choice is Alex Legion, once assumed to be the best scoring threat on the Illini, who struggled with his shot and never broke the starting line up last year. He could take the step needed to become a scoring force this year, but it is far from a foregone conclusion.

The freshmen, with as much talent they are presumed to have, could make the case for starting right out of the gate, with two guards (I assume Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson) joining Demetri McCamey in the back court. This, at least early in the season, seems to be the least likely of all the options. Bruce has never been one to start freshman over upperclassmen unless there is a clear advantage in doing so. Bruce values defense, and ball control, and starting DMAC, who has had problems running the offense in the past, along with two freshmen who may or may not be ready to defend and run the offense. Bruce is not afraid to depend on his defense at the cost of offense. ( See Minnesota or Penn State I from last year.)

I have spoken to a few people and one idea that was suggested seems like it could be fairly plausible. Dominique Keller has proven that he can both defend and get rebounds, two aspects that Bruce always wants. In addition he has shown his ability to be a true shooting threat, and might make an interesting choice to play as a 3/guard. Keller shared the floor with both Davis and Tisdale at times last year, in addition to spelling them. This formation along with DMAC and Legion sounds to me a starting lineup that Bruce could be comfortable with, especially early on.

I get the feeling that we will see a radically different starting lineup later in the season than we do for the first game. The freshmen are probably going to have to work their way into a starting role and we will see a lot of shuffling throughout the season. I think though that there are a few things we can rely on.

1.)Demetri McCamey will be starting at guard

2.) Mikes Tisdale and Davis will be the big men

3.) If Jeff Jordan returns he would also be a starter, at least early on.

I for one have a lot of expectations for the freshmen, Brandol Paul and D.J. Richardson could very well establish themselves as the best two guards on the team and push for starting jobs very early on. It all probably all depends on how committed these kids are to playing the intense defense that Bruce always rewards.

Basketball Surrealism, not the team you thought you were.

Joe Kutsunis — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 21:16:24 -0000

So, lets take a little trip back in time shall we? All the way back to April of 2008.Bush was President, bell bottoms were in style, and gas was 3.60 a gallon, heady times to be sure.

For the Illini basketball team though it was a time of pessimism and uncertainty. This Illini fan was looking forward to the football season rather than wanting to relive the agony of another basketball season.

If you had asked me on April 15 2008 who the starting lineup would be for a game in February '09, I would have told you Jamar Smith, Demetri McCamey and Alex Legion at guard, Brock, and some combination of Semrau and Tisdale would make up your front court. We would have been a sharp shooting perimeter offense, probably would be eaten alive by anyone with talent down low, and would have to rely on 3's to outscore our opponents. Legion would be putting up all sorts of crazy numbers having unseated either Chester or Meacham from the starting lineup. Every road game Jamar would be met with boo's and the ubiquitous ILL-DUI chant. Illini fans would be looking forward to the following season's recruiting class, and most of all as we muddled through another Big Ten season, somewhere around 6th or 7th, we would be fighting for the tournament on the bubble. With the prospect of possibly missing his second NCAA tournament in a row there would be serious speculation as to whether or not Bruce would be returning for another season.

It seemed that the only hope of a successful season would have rested in the shooting hands of Alex Legion, who some may have told you could make the jump to the league after only half of a season in Orange.

I can honestly tell you that I am so glad I was wrong. Not just wrong, but really wrong. This has been a season where almost all of the unknowns have turned out to be a huge positive, where the team has possibly benefitted from addition by subtraction and our front line is the strength of the team.

2008 me would have asked the following questions. Who the hell is this Dominique Keller guy? Mike Davis? isnt he a 1 star who barely played at all last year? Chester is starting? We're screwed. Jamar got busted again and booted off the team? We're screwed. Alec Legion has only made 2 shots over the last 3 games? We aren't making the NIT!

Well let that be some indication of what I or anyone who comments about basketball really knows. But like I said, I'm glad I'm wrong.

Wolverines Look For First Win in Champaign Since 1995: Game #17 Michigan Basketball @ Illinois

Maize n Brew Dave — Wed, 14 Jan 2009 18:30:08 -0000

Photo via The Detroit Free Press

After a week of improbable comebacks and delivering beatdowns to undermanned Big Ten competition, the Wolverines will face their first true road test of the 2009 Big Ten Conference season when they travel to Assembly Hall to take on Illinois at 8:30 EST tonight. Tonight's matchup is the second, and final, meeting between the Illini and the Wolverines in the last two weeks, and serves as a prelude to a rough stretch of Big Ten away games and competition that will ultimately decide whether the Wolverines go dancing in March or trudge off to Manhattan for another visit to the NIT.

When the teams last met, Michigan gave up 42 first half points, but still managed to eek out a 74-64 that was a lot closer than the final score indicates. Even so, it was the first conference game that showed Michigan was more than a two man band. Sims and Harris had awful nights offensively against the Illini defense (combining to shoot 10-26 and 3-11 from beyond the arc). Despite this, Michigan clawed its way to the win on the backs of Kelvin Grady (3-6), Zack Gibson (4-5), and Zack Novak (4-5). Those performances off the bench sparked the Wolverines current 3 game win streak that has them currently ranked 25th (AP) and 24th (Coaches).

Assembly Hall in Champaign has been (yet another) House of Horrors for the Wolverines over the years. Since Michigan's last win in Champaign, the Wolverines have dropped 11 straight there, and with the success of Illinois' program over the last few years, wins have been difficult to come by against the Illini regardless of location. Even so, a road victory against an unranked but highly regarded Illini team (Ken Pomeroy has them ranked 18th!) would be another, vital, feather in the Wolverines' cap. A win tonight would be even more impressive because the Illini are fresh, having played a single game since the Wolverines' January 4, 2009 win in Ann Arbor.

That single game may have been against Indiana, but it was an impressive win. Illinois absolutely dismantled an Indiana team that nearly toppled Michigan a week ago. The Illini put 76 on the Hoosiers en route to a 31 point blowout. Perhaps the size of the blowout had something to do with Indiana losing Devan Dumes to injury, but it'd be foolish to suggest that. The closest Indiana got was 10 points with six minutes left in the First half before the Illini lead exploded to 25. In the end, the Illini were led by 21 from Trent Meachum (G), 12 from big man Mike Davis,12 from Demetri McCamey (G), and 15 off the bench from Dominique Keller (F). Combined this group shot an absurd 20-31 on the hapless Hoosiers.

Scouting the Illini

What is most impressive about the Illini this season is they're consistently getting double figures out of four guys. Lost in the scoring frenzy was gigantic white guy Mike Tisdale who is averaging 11 points a game and former Michigan commit Alex Legion who will at some point explode on someone. There's plenty of talent on the team. The shot takers in Illinois lineup are McCamey, Davis, Tisdale and Meachum, in that order. Beyond the arc the Illini aren't particularly deep, but Meachum has been downright unconscious hitting 49.4% of his treys. Guard him tight. After Meachum, only McCamey launches them with any regularity, but he's hit only 33% of his 79 attempts from three. The attempts beyond the arc seem more to keep defenses honest down low. Illinois is an inside dominant team with 60% of its points coming inside the arc. Defensively, the Illini are one of the best in the Big Ten at denying the 3 point shot, and defending in general. They're at or near the top in every defensive category, and kept Michigan on the perimeter for a good chunk of their last game, before allowing the Wolverines to get to the basket or get good looks inside 12 feet.

But if there's a glaring weakness, it's an inability to get to the line. While the Illini hit a respectable 73% from the charity stripe, they're having a horrid time getting there. Their free throw to field goal attempt ratio is 23.8% and they're 10th in the conference at getting to the line with only 217 attempts (compared to 277 for UM and 364 for MSU!).

Game Plan (At least my Game Plan)

For Michigan to prevail tonight, they're going to have to be aggressive down the lane. Michigan's hot shooting tends to cool on the road, and if Illinois can turn the Wolverines into a jump shot only team Michigan's chances of leaving Champaign with a win are marginal. Harris and Grady need to take the ball to rack rather than settling for contested threes (Harris especially). The more they drive, the more the defense will have to crash down opening up Novak, Douglass, and everyone else. Down low, Sims and Gibson (yes, Gibson), need to play big against Davis and Tisdale on the offensive side and attempt to rack up some fouls on two of the Illini's best players. (If Gibson can get Tisdale alone on the wing, please let there be more Honky Magic). One last note, Michigan's been great at taking care of the ball, but Harris is still coughing it up with some regularity. Manny's got to take better care of the ball in this game while staying aggressive. Hard thing to ask for, I know, but it's what will separate him from the rest of the pack and help Michigan toward a successful season.

Defensively, the Illini have had two weeks to prep for the 1-3-1, so Michigan's going to have to mix it up. Alternating between man-to-man, a 2-3 and the 1-3-1 should give the Illini enough of a headache to prevent them from getting too comfortable. As Duke proved, if you can find space in the middle of the zone (usually the free throw line) you're in business. After a two weeks of prep and a game under their belt, I've got to think the Illini have a decent game plan on how to attack the 1-3-1.

It's going to be a good game and a great test for Michigan. As the Daily points out in its Mid-season review, Michigan's conference wins have come over teams with a 3-7 conference record. But a win over a tough Illini team on the road will definitely quiet that criticism and get the Michigan faithful even more amped up for the upcoming visit from the Buckeyes on Saturday.

We'll have open threads going for tonight's and Saturday's games. Hope to see you there.

Notes, Media and Oddities

Probable Lineups courtesy of Jeff Arnold, Ann Arbor News

Probable starters
Michigan Wolverines (13-3, 3-1 Big Ten)
P Name Yr. Ht. Wt. Ppg Rpg
F DeShawn Sims Jr. 6-8 235 16.4 8.4
G Zack Novak Fr. 6-5 210 6.9 2.8
G Manny Harris So. 6-5 210 18.6 7.8
G Laval Lucas-Perry R-Fr. 6-3 185 12.0 2.6
G Kelvin Grady So. 5-11 170 5.7 1.9

Illinois Fighting Illini (14-2, 2-1 Big Ten)
P Name Yr. Ht. Wt. Ppg Rpg
C Mike Tisdale So. 7-1 235 11.1 4.5
F Mike Davis So. 6-9 210 11.9 7.6
G Chester Frazier Sr. 6-2 195 5.6 4.3
G Trent Meacham Sr. 6-2 195 12.3 2.2
G Demetri McCamey So. 6-3 205 12.0 2.8

A win tonight would be Coach Beilein's 500th career win. Make it happen boys.
UMHoops.com continues with its usual awesomeness with another outstanding preview of tonight's game.
Apparently the Illini have revenge on their mind. (HT: MGo). That's fine. We have winning on ours.
Also awesome, check out UMHoops.com's comparison of West Virginia's 2005 squad to Michigan's 2009 squad. It's uncanny. Props to Dylan on an outstanding premise and post. This is a must read.
ESPN's Preview
Ann Arbor News Preview says the Wolverines need to stay hungry. Let's hide their sandwiches.
The Daily says Michigan's happy being a nobody. A nobody nobody saw coming. Wait... Wha?
Free Press Preview focuses on Manny. Important buried nugget:

PRACTICE FACILITY: Beilein, asked about the progress of the practice facility, said the public would hear something soon. It's believed the facility plan will be brought formally to the regents at the Jan. 22 meeting. Regents were briefed informally surrounding their December meeting.

Detroit News Preview says Grady is like a quarterback. Really? The football team could really use one right now.... Mas on the Practice facility from Beilein:

"I think you will be getting updates on that real soon," Beilein said.

Chicago Tribune has some fluff on Laval Lucas-Perry and Alex Legion and provides their own (very brief) Preview of tonight's game.
One of the bigger oddities in the Ken Pomeroy rankings is that he has Illinois 32 places higher than Michigan and the second highest ranked team in the Big ten behind Purdue. There's simple answer. Illinois' non-conference schedule didn't include the number of RPI tanking patsies Michigan's did. Illinois worst opponents were five teams ranked between 219 and 252, and one team ranked 303. Michigan, in contrast, feasted on four teams ranked 303 or worse. So big wins over Duke/UCLA get ruffled by the ungodly horridness of those opponents, at least in the computers. Is there much of a difference between a 300 and a 200 team? Not much. But everyone gets ranked, and it's one of the systems we've got that people look to for some guidance. Take it FWIW.
Rivals says Michigan is finding its identity as it adapts to Beilein's system.
In case you missed it, Kentucky star Jodie Meeks went for 54 points in a Conference game against Tennessee last night. Wow. Congrats Mr. Meeks. Our buddies at A Sea of Blue are understandably excited.

Mizzou-Illinois: A wonk's preview

Bill C. — Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:30:06 -0000

Quick programming note: I was supposed to be driving to Oklahoma tonight (and therefore listening to the dulcet tones of Mike Kelly filling me in on the action), but we are now not leaving until tomorrow morning. Which means I get to watch the game tonight after all. Which means...LIVEBLOG!!!

Anyway...

Since it's the biggest game of the season thus far, I figured I could throw together my fun, wonky numbers for a preview...

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Points Per Minute	1.78	1.38	2.16	1.61
Points Per Possession (PPP)	1.10	0.85	1.18	0.88
Points Per Shot (PPS)	1.26	1.03	1.31	1.14
2-PT FG%	52.2%	43.9%	53.5%	42.3%
3-PT FG%	39.1%	28.7%	36.4%	30.0%
FT%	71.5%	56.2%	63.1%	63.6%

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Assists/Gm	19.7	11.4	20.4	10.5
Steals/Gm	6.5	5.7	11.3	6.9
Turnovers/Gm	13.6	16.7	12.1	19.6
(Assists + Steals) / TO	1.92	0.96	2.62	0.89

	Illinois	Opp.	Mizzou	Opp.
Exp. Offensive Rebounds	122	141	136	138
Offensive Rebounds	123	141	153	141
Eq. Rebound Margin	+1	0	+17	+3

You probably didn't need these numbers to tell you that Mizzou is the more up-tempo, offensive team, while Illinois is the slug-it-out, defensive team. If Mizzou has an advantage here, it's because their margins are better. They are +1.73 on the (Ast+Stl)/TO ratio, while UI is +0.96. They are +0.30 on Points Per Possession, while UI is +0.25.
Illinois' rebounding is not quite what I thought it would be. Again, the Expected Offensive Rebounds figure is based on the fact that there are different offensive rebound %'s for 2-pointers, 3-pointers and FT's...plus, both UI's and MU's opponents have missed more shots than they have, so they expected number is higher. From the Expected Rebounds standpoint, Illinois is...only average. They have both grabbed and given up pretty much the exact number of expected offensive rebounds.
Missouri, on the other hand, has been slightly below average in defensive rebounds...but great in offensive rebounds. Strangely, Mizzou might actually have the rebounding edge here.
Projected score based on Points Per Minute: Mizzou 71, Illinois 68
Projected score based on Points Per Possession (and average possessions per game): Mizzou 70, Illinois 69

Missouri Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
DeMarre Carroll	17.83	0.69	17.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 1.8 SPG
Leo Lyons	14.50	0.62	16.2 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG, 1.5 SPG
Marcus Denmon	7.96	0.46	7.3 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.4 SPG
Zaire Taylor	7.44	0.30	4.2 PPG, 3.5 APG, 3.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG
J.T. Tiller	7.21	0.34	6.4 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.8 RPG, 2.2 SPG
Matt Lawrence	7.17	0.38	9.5 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.8 APG
Miguel Paul	4.99	0.31	4.8 PPG, 2.4 APG, 1.2 RPG
Keith Ramsey	4.39	0.36	4.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 APG, 0.7 BPG
Kim English	4.00	0.32	6.9 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.0 APG
Laurence Bowers	3.78	0.41	3.0 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 0.7 BPG
Justin Safford	3.77	0.30	4.1 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 APG
Jarrett Sutton	2.04	0.58	3.0 PPG
Steve Moore	1.45	0.26	1.8 PPG, 2.0 RPG
Michael Anderson Jr.	1.10	0.16	1.5 PPG, 1.0 RPG

Illinois Season to Date

Player	EqPts/Gm	EqPts/Min	Line
Chester Frazier	13.40	0.44	7.2 PPG, 6.6 APG, 3.8 RPG, 1.3 SPG
Mike Davis	12.34	0.43	13.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.6 APG, 0.8 SPG
Demetri McCamey	11.16	0.37	12.4 PPG, 4.8 APG, 3.3 RPG
Trent Meachem	8.09	0.27	10.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 1.9 RPG
Mike Tisdale	5.56	0.25	10.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 1.1 BPG
Dominique Keller	5.12	0.46	6.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG
Calvin Brock	3.44	0.20	5.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 1.3 APG
Jeff Jordan	2.19	0.20	1.4 PPG, 1.5 APG
Richard Semrau	1.21	0.09	2.5 PPG, 2.6 RPG
Bubba Chisholm	0.92	0.55	0.7 PPG, 1 Walk-on, 1 great name
Bill Cole	0.79	0.13	1.9 PPG, 1.3 RPG
C.J. Jackson	0.25	0.11	1.2 PPG, 0.7 RPG
Alex Legion	-0.54	-0.03	6 pts, 2 reb, 3 TO, 2 PF in 18 minutes

Two things to note immediately: 1) Leo Lyons and DeMarre Carroll are the two (statistically) best players on the court, and 2) While UI has four guys averaging in double-digits, it's Chester Frazier (7.2 PPG) who makes this team tick.
Foul trouble could come into play here. UI's Mike Tisdale averages 0.13 fouls per minute, as does Richard Semrau, while MU's Leo Lyons (0.10) and DeMarre Carrolle (0.08) have both improved in their body control from last year...but they still have lots of foul potential. And in the backcourt, JT Tiller is averaging 0.13 fouls per minute (0.16 against 'real teams'--USC, Cal, Xavier), and none of UI's major guards average higher than 0.08.
Another potential issue: depth. Illinois has three guys averaging 30 minutes per game and has another at 28.7. Meanwhile, Missouri only has four guys averaging as much as 20 minutes per game, with another six averaging 12 minutes or more. Plus, Laurence Bowers is starting to work his way into the rotation, meaning Mizzou has 11 guys who could play regularly. Illinois just got deeper with the addition of Alex Legion, meaning their rotation just went from 10 guys at 11 minutes per game or more, to 11, but Mizzou's "line change" could be pretty effective, as their bench has contributed much more.

Strength of Schedule

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou's SOS is #251 (it's gone down in a hurry), UI's is #237. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou's is #145, UI's is #80.

Strength of...Team

According to KenPom.com, Mizzou is currently the #8 team in the country. Illinois: #16. According to CollegeRPI.com, Mizzou is #39, Illinois #26. Lucky for Mizzou, Ken Pomeroy says the RPI is dead. So there!

Jordans

Illinois 1, Missouri 0. A clear Illini advantage here.

Conference Superiority

The Big Ten has recently asserted itself in a major way, especially against the Big 12 in particular. The Big 11 is 4-0 versus the Big 12 this year and 13-4 over the past two seasons. Granted, this year's results have been from just two teams--Michigan State (who beat OSU and Texas) and Iowa (who beat ISU and KSU)--but still...looks bad. CONFERENCE PRIDE!!!

What does StatSheet.com have to say?

God bless StatSheet...a site that is virtually guaranteed to become my favorite website over the next three months. For Braggin' Rights, they have both a written and stat-heavy preview. Plus, all the StatSheety goodies. Point spread history? Yup. DeMarre Carroll vs Mike Davis comparison? Got it. Jarrett Sutton vs Bubba Chisholm? Bingo. (Sutton kicks Bubba's butt.) Fun (and slightly blinding) player impact charts? Hell yeah...

Stats by StatSheet.com

Prediction

This is just about as evenly-matched a Braggin' Rights game has been since at least about 2002 or 2003. This one should be fun, tense, annoying, exciting, etc. I don't know why I'm even making a prediction--in the current 8-game losing streak to Illinois, I'd have probably picked MU to win in at least 5-6 of those games, because I'm me--but the numbers give the slightest of edges to Missouri. Take strength of scheulde into account, and it basically becomes a coin toss. After landing on Heads for eight straight years, surely the coin will land on Tails this time, right? Missouri 70, Illinois 69.