SB Nation - Delvon Roe

The Dancing Bear's Recital: Michigan State 88, Oakland 57

KJ@theonlycolors — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:47:21 -0000

[Insert Wonder Twins joke here.]

If you're like me (and, admit it, you're at least a little bit like me), this is the kind of game that makes you want to go straight to the four-factors graph:

NCAA Basketball Stats

When this team wins the turnover battle and shoots 62.8% from 2-point range, it's generally going to win the game pretty comfortably. MSU ran out to a 30-7 lead over the first 14 minutes of the game and coasted to a 31-point victory. The Grizzlies looked like a team that wasn't functioning very smoothly coming into this game, and MSU made sure they never had a chance to find any kind of comfort level tonight.

If I were going to find a downside to this game, I'd point to these things:

Neither Chris Allen nor Raymar Morgan could get things going offensively.
A lot of the OU turnovers seemed like a function of their inability to make competent ball-handling moves more so than MSU's defense. (12 steals for MSU.)
Ultimately, the MSU big men couldn't contain Keith Benson: 21 points on 7-15 FG shooting and 11 rebounds. (He made some pretty good moves in the second half, though.)

Those are all fairly nitpicky issues, though. Overall, this was a very efficient performance by the Spartans on both ends of the court (71 possessions), with Lucas and Green leading the way and a lot of guys making contributions off the bench. Another small step toward this team gelling into a more cohesive unit.

Player bullets (official box score is here):

Draymond Green put on a show: 19 points on 9-11 FG shooting and 12 rebounds. Good to have another mid-range scoring option when Morgan isn't hitting.
Kalin Lucas with another very efficient scoring game: 19 points on 11 FG attempts. Up-to-the-minute shooting line for the season: .557/.429/.756.
Solid game for Delvon Roe: 11 points on 5-7 FG shooting and 6 rebounds.
Korie Lucious got the start and played well for the most part: 7 points, 4 assists, 2 TOs. A few sloppy moments in the second half.
Only 4 points for Raymar Morgan. Jumpshot has gone completely missing. Frustrated by Benson's shot-blocking. Chipped in 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals.
Chris Allen only hit 1 of 5 three-point attempts, but made plays elsewhere: 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal.
Durrell Summers looked pretty good. Didn't force things: 6 points and 3 rebounds.
Austin Thornton got some real PT tonight, entering the game with the first batch of subs: 2 rebounds and 2 assists in 10 minutes. Both his jumpshots were ugly looking, though.
Garrick Sherman was good at moments and bad at others during his 10 minutes on the floor. Nothing on the stat sheet to write home about.
Derrick Nix: Made a free throw! Missed two others, though. Free throw percentage stands at a whopping 8.7%. Nice game all around: 5 points, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, and a block in 12 minutes. Played good defense when he was matched up against Benson.
The Kebler/Dahlman/Crandall/Herzog playing group finished the game off with style, outscoring the Grizzlies 9-7 in the final few minutes (with an OU 3-point play in the final seconds). (Herzog's first-half appearance, on the other hand, was pretty miserable. Picked up a foul and a turnover in one minute of play.)

Next up: It's the annual week-long basketball break for final exams. The Spartans play next 9 days from now. Noon on Saturday the 19th vs. IPFW. At home. Big Ten Network.

Gives us some time to focus on that big bowl game match-up. And analyze legal charges. You know, football talk.

It's All About Poise: Michigan State 69, The Citadel 56

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 03:18:22 -0000

More photos » by Mic Smith - AP

Taking the hit, keeping your poise. (Hey, how 'bout all that green in the background?)

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Game Thread Comment of the Night:

Generally you want teams to take the 25-footer

by Con-T on Dec 7, 2009 5:32 PM PST

The Citadel players didn't seem to mind taking their shots from 25 feet out for most of the game, knocking down their first 7 three-point attempts, 8 of 10 attempts in the first half, and 12 of 20 for the game. No Bulldog player who attempted a 3-pointer shot less than 50% from 3-point range. There were a few MSU defensive lapses leading to open looks (the worst being an attempted defensive switch by Chris Allen on a nonscreen situation), but there were more quick-release shots by Bulldog players from 3+ feet behind the line.

There's only so much a defense can do against a team hitting almost every shot they take from beyond the arc. If you extend the defense beyond the 3-point line, you'll give up points in the lane (or more 3-pointers on kick-outs). Example: Late in the game Zach Urbanus (who hit his first 4 three-point attempts), pump faked his man 6 feet behind the 3-point line and drove toward the basket to knock down a mid-range floater.

Instead, MSU played good interior defense, limiting The Citadel to a 2-point shooting percentage of just 25.0% (7-28; 3-15 if you remove Cameron Wells from the equation). Meanwhile, they kept the turnover battle close (22.2% to 16.7%) and dominated on the boards (52.2% to 25.0%).

Offensively, the MSU players shot the ball very efficiently, making 56.3% of 2-point attempts, 50.0% of 3-point attempts, and 64.3% of 28 free throw attempts. It's no small feat to post a better eFG% than an opponent that makes 60.0% of its 3-point attempts.

NCAA Basketball Stats

So I'm going to chalk this game up as a success: A poised, efficient performance (1.28 PPP in just 54 possessions) in a raucous road venue against a team that was unconscious from 3-point range for 30 minutes.

Player bullets (official box score is here):

Kalin Lucas played like the Big Ten POY tonight: 17 points on 6-9 FG shooting and 6 assists (4 turnovers, though). A couple absolute daggers down the stretch. Super-smooth behind-the-back layup on the fast break.
Raymar Morgan was fairly quiet after the first few minutes but finished with 11 points and 10 rebounds.
Very good game from Delvon Roe: 9 points, 7 rebounds, 1 assist, 2 turnovers, 2 steals, 1 block. Very active defense against the perimeter-based Bulldog attack. Good aggressiveness attacking the basket on offense.
This qualifies as a quiet Draymond Green performance: 9 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 turnover, 1 block.
Combined 12-16 FT shooting from Roe and Green. We'll take it.
Chris Allen: Good when shooting ball (9 points on 6 FGA), bad when driving into traffic (4 turnovers).
Durrell Summers was the invisible man: zero points and 2 rebounds in 19 minutes. Not exactly the tempo he likes to play at, but we're going to need a lot more than this out of him in Big Ten play.
More Garrick Sherman, please: 4 points in 8 minutes on a couple nifty moves going to the basket. Tom Izzo seems resigned to playing Roe and Green close to 30 minutes each up front, but I don't see how we get through the entire season with that plan. Morgan's better at the 3 spot than the 4. Sherman needs experience before we get into conference/NCAA play.
Korie Lucious hit a couple 3-pointers at big moments. Good bounce back from 4-15 FG shooting in last two games.
Derrick Nix missed another two free throws. 1-20. Ugh.

Next up: Back to the friendly confines of the Breslin Center for a match-up with the Oakland Grizzlies. Thursday at 7:00. Big Ten Network.

Can't Handle the Pressure: Florida 77, Michigan State 74

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 05:19:01 -0000

More photos » by Mel Evans - AP

Some personal space, please!

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In two years of blogging about this basketball team, I'm pretty sure I've never said anything like this:

This loss is on Tom Izzo.

When an unranked opponent shoots 5-24 from 3-point range, you simply have to find a way to win. And it's not like we didn't know Billy Donovan was going to throw the 2-2-1 press and the 2-3 zone out against us. Yet you could count on one hand the number of times it looked like the MSU players had a specific game plan for how to beat those schemes for easy baskets--despite a full four days of preparation time. The easy baskets that were created seemed more like a function of individual playmaking (e.g., Lucious passes on the drive in the first half) than by any cohesive plan of attack.

Having Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan at less than 100% certainly didn't help, but there are still four starter-quality players on this team that should be able to make plays handling the ball against pressure: Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, and Draymond Green. Instead, the game plan to beat the press ended up being "Give Kalin Lucas the ball and let him beat the press with the dribble." And that didn't work so well when Florida was able to deny Lucas the ball on the in-bounds pass. So you end up with Durrell Summers trying to back his man down the court and barely getting bailed out by a timeout call.

It doesn't happen often, but Tom Izzo got outcoached tonight. The result was a turnover percentage of 32.4% and a much-deserved loss.

Man, I really don't want to spend another season pondering why the team turns the ball over with such regularity.

From a statistical standpoint, perhaps I'm being too harsh about the lack of a well-executive offensive game plan. After all, MSU did manage to score over a point per possession (71-possession game). That was a function of efficient two-point shooting (61.7%) when they did manage to beat the Florida defensive pressure and stellar offensive rebounding (60.0% OffReb% [!]). Just imagine if we'd turn the ball over on, say, just 25% of our possessions.

Defensively, the Gators got to 77 points despite barely shooting over 20% on two dozen attempts from beyond the arc. They turned the ball over on only 15.5% of their possessions, scored proficiently in the paint (54.1% 2pt%), and got to the free throw line frequently, knocking down 22 of 25 shots from the line. The MSU defenders were much to quick to reach for the ball on drives by Florida players, picking up a series of bad fouls late in the game.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Bullets (official box score is here):

Despite having to leave the game early due to the problem with his foot, Kalin Lucas put up 20 points on 11 FG attempts. He was at his best scoring the ball tonight. Only 1 assist vs. 3 turnovers, though.
Draymond Green and Delvon Roe combined for 28 points on 13-17 FG attempts. They were the finishers on the plays when MSU was successful in beating the defensive pressures. Plus they worked hard on the boards--Green, in particular (11 rebounds, 5 on the offensive end). Unfortunately, they were also the culprits on some of the bad defensive fouls.
And Green/Roe weren't terribly unsuccessful in defending the Florida interior scorers. Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin, and Chandler Parsons were the most efficient scorers for the Gators, scoring 35 points on 22 FG attempts. I'm very concerned with how we guard the North Carolina big men on Tuesday.
Durrell Summers was pretty good tonight: 13 points on 10 FG attempts and 6 rebounds. Unfortunately, he couldn't get one of those final two 3-point attempts to drop to send the game to OT.
Beyond the four guys, I've mentioned, the rest of the team scored just 14 points tonight. That's a disturbing lack of balance.
Raymar Morgan could not get anything going against the size of the Florida front line. And his jumper wasn't dropping. Zero points on 7 FG attempts and 4 personal fouls. Another thing to worry about for the UNC game. On a positive note, he did post 5 assists tonight and played hard on both ends despite the lack of scoring performance.
I thought Izzo was a little harsh in his halftime comments about Korie Lucious, calling his play "atrocious." He had a couple bad turnovers in the first half against the press, but he was also making aggressive plays to beat the Gator zone with the pass.
Bright spot: Austin Thornton. 4 points on 2 made jumpers, an assist, and two fouls drawn on box outs. He and Garrick Sherman were the only MSU players to appear in this game and not turn the ball over.
Speaking of which: Five MSU players turned the ball over 3 or more times. Ugh.

Next up: The University of Massachusetts (which lost to Rutgers 83-75 on the other side of the bracket) in the 3rd-place/consolation/losers-bracket game. 5:30 tomorrow night. HDNet again. I'll try to get what will likely be a very brief game preview up tomorrow morning/afternoon.

P.S. Michigan State has not won a nonconference tournament away from home since 1998. And they haven't won the Big Ten Tournament since 2000. Why do we play so poorly in tournaments contained within a single week? We seem to do OK in the one that lasts more than one week.

P.P.S. 1-5 for the Big Ten today. Not good.

340 and Counting: Michigan State 90 Valparaiso 60

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:46:32 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Record, all-time wins by head coach, Michigan State University: 340 (tie), George Melvin Heathcote and Thomas Izzo (pictured).

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[Note: Another disjointed viewing experience: Listened to first half on the radio live (Matt Steigenga's becoming a really good color guy, BTW), watched second half live, went back and watched first half on DVR.]

Michigan State puts together a complete 40 minutes: 18-point halftime lead, stretched to 30 at the final buzzer. Straight to the player bullets (official box score is here):

Chris Allen is playing with as much confidence as he's ever had: 22 points on 10 FG attempts.
Delvon Roe is good to go: 10 points, 17 rebounds (7 on offense), 4 blocks.
Korie Lucious: 9 assists, giving him 23 for the season vs. just 3 turnovers. Man, did he drop some dimes today. Best pure passer of the Tom Izzo era?

Raymar Morgan: 9 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, and most importantly 28 minutes played. With four more days to get healthy, he should be pretty close to 100% for the Gators on Friday.

Kalin Lucas is Kalin Lucas: 15 points on 8 FG attempts, 3 assists, 2 steals.

Durrell Summers: 10 points, 1 scary moment.

Even when Draymond Green has a quiet game, he stuffs the stat sheet: 8 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover, 1 block, 1 sheet. He's the anti-Mark Titus: he tries to fill every column in the box score.

We won't hit all of the other 7 guys to play in this game (none in double-digit minutes, as Izzo stayed pretty small throughout the game vs. the undersized Crusaders). It does look like Tom Izzo is making a conscious effort to give Austin Thornton a chance to earn a spot at the bottom of the playing rotation. 8 minutes and 4 FG attempts (only 1 made) today. They ran a set play for him off the timeout with a minute left in the first half, but he missed the open 15-footer.

This was a 68-possession game, so the offense was more spectacular than the defense--particularly when you consider that the Crusaders hit only 4 of 23 three-point attempts, missing some pretty good looks off bad MSU defensive switches/hedges along the way. Four factors graph:

NCAA Basketball Stats

MSU beat Valparaiso handily in all three of the factors besides turnover percentage. The execution against the Crusader zone was particularly good, resulting in a 2pt FG% of 61.0% and a 3pt FG% of 41.2%.

And the Spartan TO% of 19.1% was acceptable. No MSU player turned it over more than twice. Generally, it's encouraging that a higher percentage of our turnovers seem to be of the trying-to-create-something variety (as opposed to the no-purpose-brain-freeze variety) this season.

Minor gripe: The defense on in-bounds plays under the basket could use some work. Valparaiso got easy looks going down the lane several times today. Does having the defender guarding the in-bounds passer turn his back to try double team cutters really work better than just having him pressure the ball so the passer can't get a good passing angle to a player in the lane?

Next up: The actual whether-you-win-makes-a-difference-in-who-you-play-next phase of the Legends Classic. Atlantic City. The Florida Gators. Friday at 8:00. HDNet (check here to figure out if you get it or to find a sports bar that does).

Rockets are Good for What Ails Delvon Roe: Michigan State 75 Toledo 62

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 05:21:44 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

The old "pass the ball to the guy whose man is already boxing him out" trick.

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[Note: I watched this game in a somewhat disjointed fashion: final 16 minutes live, first 24 minutes on DVR. So my perception of the game's time continuum may be slightly off. Bear with me.]

Given (1) how bad Toledo was last year and (2) how young they are this year, we would have liked to see MSU's final margin of victory closer to 30 than to 10. But coming off the emotionally-draining win against Gonzaga, I think we can cut the team a break. They came out playing efficiently in the first half, building a 17-point lead before Toledo went on a 10-0 run late in the half. And they came out with purpose after halftime, holding Toledo scoreless for the first 5 minutes of the second half. There was never any real danger of an upset.

Player bullets (official box score is here):

Great to see Delvon Roe look back to being himself (or better): 10 points, 11 rebounds. Seems like all 4 of his made field goals came off nifty moves near the basket.
I need an autotext feature for "Draymond Green stuffs the stat sheet": 15 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 turnover, 2 steals, 1 block.
Efficient game for a very confident-looking Chris Allen: 14 points on 11 FG attempts, 3 assists, zero turnovers.

Kalin Lucas and Korie Lucious combined: 10 assists, zero turnovers.

Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman combined for 14 minutes as Tom Izzo looked to keep the other perimeter guy's minutes down as the team entered the first of two straight 2-games-in-3-days weekends. Definite edge to Thornton, who made a couple nice defensive plays. Air ball for Dahlman on his only 3-point attempt.

4 points and 3 rebounds for Tom Herzog in just 6 minutes. Good to see him use his PT productively.

Derrick Nix is not enjoying his time at the charity stripe. 0-6 at the line tonight. 1-15 on the season now. This is making Roe's problems last season seem pretty mild, and I'm guessing it's not an issue that's going to go away quickly. (I'm not all that concerned with the overall FT shooting. Take Nix out of the equation and the team was 11-20, which is within the bounds of the normal random variation you're going to see from the line.)

Only 1 minute for Garrick Sherman. Presumably, the thigh bruise is an issue.

Raymar Morgan did not play. Which is OK--for now.

Bit of an off game for Durrell Summers, who posted two-thirds of MSU's turnovers (not quite as bad as it sounds; read on).

This was a 67-possession game, so MSU's performance was pretty balanced between offense and defense. The defense may have been a little better than the score would indicate, as freshman Stephen Albrecht made some great shots for Toledo. Take his 20 points on 13 FG attempts out of the equation and the Rockets posted an eFG% of just 40.8%.

Four factors graph:

NCAA Basketball Stats

MSU turned the ball over on just 6 of 67 possessions The resulting turnover percentage of 9.0% is the lowest figure posted by a Spartan team since the December 2007 win over Texas. So that's a nice way to bounce back from the give-away fest in the first half vs. Gonzaga.

Beyond that, this game was fairly unremarkable from a statstical standpoint. Just another ticket punched on the standard slate of mid-to-low-major nonconference opponents.

Next Up: The Valparaiso Crusaders step right up to take their shot at the Spartans in the second "round" of the Legends Classic. Sunday at noon. The Breslin Center. Big Ten Network.

P.S. Maybe I got a little too worked up about the quality of the revamped UNC lineup last night. As successful as they were at forcing Evan Turner to turn the ball over last night, they seem to have a bit of a turnover problem themselves. Two straight games with a TO% of 25%+, the latest resulting in a resounding loss. Oh, and Mr. Turner bounced back pretty nicely: 26 points, 16 rebounds, 6 assists, and a relatively modest 4 turnovers in Ohio State's win over California tonight.

Preseason Musings: What's Left to Say?

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:05:51 -0000

OR "Previewing the Season by Reviewing the Offseason"

With just barely more than a week until the regular season basketball opener, I feel like I should be providing more in the way of preview-like substance around here. But, frankly, after seven months of offseason basketball blogging, I think I'm out of things to say. This is the downside of blogging about college basketball for all 12 months of the year, I guess.

So instead of trying to manufacture something, I thought we'd just go back and look at the various statements I've made about the 2009-2010 Michigan State basketball team since April. All of you can then tell me what I've missed (or, perish the thought, been wrong about). Off we go.

On Kalin Lucas:

On offense, MSU will generally have a stronger offensive group on the floor than it did this season, as Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers consume the minutes Walton leaves behind. Hopefully, this will create more opportunities for Lucas to set teammates up for good shots and result in fewer instances in which he has to generate tougher shots late in the shot clock.

On the other end of the court, Lucas faces a substantial adjustment. During the first two years of his career, Lucas has had the luxury of not having to guard top opposing point guards most of the time, as Walton could be assigned to that task. Next season, Lucas will have to expend more energy on defense, as he becomes arguably MSU's top perimeter defender.

On Korie Lucious:

Look for Lucious to make major strides from his first season to his second. Specifically, he'll need to reduce his turnover rate and become a more consistent defender. He showed flashes of being a very good on-the-ball defender this year, but like most freshmen lacked focus at times.

The final three games of the season illustrate Lucious' potential: He scored 20 points in the 28 minutes he played against the three #1 seeds MSU faced to close the NCAA Tournament. If he can harness that scoring ability and become a more efficient ball-handler, it'll make MSU very hard to stop on offense. He'd give Tom Izzo the luxury of having an explosive point guard on the floor for all 40 minutes of every game and create defensive match-up issues for opponents when both he and Lucas are in the lineup.

On Chris Allen:

You'll note his minutes per game didn't drop as his shooting numbers fell. Tom Izzo's confidence in Allen actually seemed to grow as Allen's shooting problems increased. Defensively, his progress was particularly encouraging, as he became much less prone to mental errors. His progression was one of the keys in MSU's dramatic improvement in 3-point defense in conference play.

Going into next season, Allen's in a similar position to the one he was in last year: If he can become the consistent 3-point shooter he was billed to be entering college, he has the potential to be a 15-point-per-game scorer. The problem is that his college career is now half over and his career 3-point shooting percentage is just 33.3%. If he can move that number up near 40.0%, the potential remains for Allen to become an all-conference-level player, given the way he has progressed in other facets of the game.

On post player playing time:

Looking at the front court, this table provides further indication why Izzo will be looking for significant contributions from the trio of Sherman, Herzog, and Nix: All three are legitimate college centers. Draymond Green is obviously a 4-spot guy. He plays good positional defense but can't be expected to guard taller low-post scorers consistently (as noted by a couple commenters recently). Playing a smaller, quicker lineup with Morgan at the 4 would, then, mean Delvon Roe has to be on the floor. And at 6'8", Roe is not an ideal defender against players 6'10" and up (although Roe's improved athleticism as his knees continue to get back to 100% should help).

The math says SherHerzNix needs to contribute at least 15 minutes per game (to cover for Roe). And another 5-15 minutes will likely be needed in most games, depending on match-ups and foul trouble.

On Durrell Summers:

Unfortunately, after scoring 20 points in three games during that four-game stretch, Summers went into a prolonged scoring slump, scoring just 50 points in his next 11 games. He emerged to make some key contributions during the NCAA Tournament run, but never exceeded a scoring output of 13 points in a game.

Going into the 2009-10 season, here are the best/worse case scenarios for Summers:

Worst case: His junior year is like is sophomore year, with a tad more playing time: spectacular plays at times, inconsistent offensive contributions at others.

Best case: He makes a Morris Peterson-like jump from his sophomore to junior seasons. That four-game scoring explosion is evidence it could happen. He's got all the tools to be a consistent threat to score 15-20 points per game, grab key offensive rebounds, and become a shut-down defender.

On Raymar Morgan:

All in all, I think there's quite a bit for Raymar Morgan to build on going into his senior season--more than initially meets the eye in perusing the stats from his illness-marred junior season. If he can put the statistical efficiency from his sophomore season together with his improved attitude and aggressiveness from this past season, he could have a very special senior season.

Bigger picture, let's step back nine months in time. Last November, who would have though that MSU's top-billed preseason star would become such a limited factor in conference and postseason play and the team would still (1) win an outright Big Ten title and (2) advance all the way to the National Championship Game? There's the silver lining to Morgan's illness: It forced other guys (Durrell Summers and Draymond Green, in particular) to step up and make plays. Did that make MSU a better team last season? Probably. Will it make them a better team next season? Almost certainly yes.

On the 2009-10 Big Ten outlook:

. . . put all that together and you get the following three-months-out TOC Big Ten basketball power rankings:

Purdue

Michigan State

Minnesota

Michigan

Ohio State

Illinois

Northwestern

Wisconsin

Penn State

Indiana

Iowa

With two potential national title contenders and up to nine teams with NCAA Tournament hopes, the conference looks to be as strong as it's been at least since the 2004-05 season (when two Big Ten teams advanced to the Final Four) and maybe as far back as the 1999-2000 season (when the conference last sent seven teams to the Big Dance).

(Note: I'd probably knock Minnesota down two spots in the projected Big Ten standings at this point, given recent events in Minneapolis--although there's still certainly plenty there for Tubby to work with. The rest of the rankings still seem about right.)

On the schedule (this is Pete talking):

The home/away Big Ten game balance seems fair. 4 out of 6 home games to start, and 3 of the last 4 games are also at home.

As to difficulty, I wouldn't say the schedule seems front or back loaded. The degree of difficulty's pretty even throughout the season.

Undoubtedly you noticed that Michigan's the last game of the season. You also might be wondering if it falls on spring break, and the answer is yes. The Purdue game was at the same time last year, and judging by the Izzone's turnout to see the Boilermakers, I wouldn't be worried about a Wolverine invasion.

The last nine games could be shown on national TV. I don't know if that qualifies MSU as elite (if they aren't already), but it darn sure doesn't hurt.

Four weekend home games out of a possible nine is about the definition of fair. No complaints there either.

As to the nonconference, I can't recall MSU having an opponent as big as Gonzaga that close to the start of the season. Gonzaga just lost Austin Daye, Jeremy Pargo, and Josh Heytvelt though, so hopefully the Spartans can take advantage of a bulldog team who will be learning to play without three of their biggest stars. Also note the trip to The Citadel this year.

On Draymond Green:

. . . to what extent does his lack of height limit his upside as an interior presence? There were certainly times this past season when an opponent would grab a rebound over Green's head or turn and shoot over Green's outstretched arms. But those instances were relatively rare. Meanwhile, Green showed a knack for using savvy and positioning to overcome his relative lack of length and he posted very good rebounding numbers playing for the best rebounding team in the country.

Offensively, he showed no fear in going to the basket when presented with the chance. Note that his 2-point shooting percentage increased significantly as the season progressed and the opponents got tougher.

The old basketball maxim is that you can't teach height. But I don't think you can teach teach what Green has, either. I've said it before: Draymond Green is a basketball player. He makes plays.

On Delvon Roe:

If Roe is really back to 100% physically, the sky's the limit for him. The experts are already starting to pay attention: Jeff Goodman has him at #8 on his list of the top 25 players fans need to get to know, and DraftExpress.com couldn't find much to criticize (other than the free throw thing) in ranking him as the #12 NBA prospect in the Big Ten.

Roe has already demonstrated that he's a tough, smart, versatile basketball player. Put those attributes together with the physical talent that made him a five-star recruit and you're going to have a player who will eventually be a contender for the title of Best Big Man of the Tom Izzo Era.

On Tom Herzog:

You don't get voted runner-up for Mr. Basketball without having some decent basketball-playing abilities. And, while you certainly don't want to read too much into statistics from less than two hours of time on the court (mostly against opposing bench warmers), the tempo-free numbers above hint at the fact that Tom Herzog can do some things with a basketball.

On the offense:

Going forward, the hope would be that Delvon Roe and Draymond Green can maintain their rebounding prowess as their minutes go up, making up for the graduation of Goran Suton and keeping MSU's offensive rebounding percentage above 40 percent.

And there's reasons to be optimistic that the team can improve on the other three factors.

Travis Walton's departure will help with shooting percentages. (The loss of Walton on the defensive end will be a different story.)

A full season of a healthy Raymar Morgan and more playing time for Delvon Roe could boost the free throw rate number even higher.

And maybe, just maybe, the turnovers go down as the perimeter guys all pick up another year of experience.

On the defense:

What doesn't show up in the numbers is the effect that losing Walton and Suton may have on our opponents' effective field goal percentage. Walton's ability to shut down opponents' top perimeter scorers is something that won't be matched by any of our returning guards. And Suton had developed a knack for frustrating opposing post players in establishing position and getting good looks at the basket.

While the experience of our core group of perimeter players (Lucas, Allen, Summers, Morgan) should help some with cohesion in playing Izzo's man-to-man scheme with an emphasis on help defense, I'd have to put my money on a slight regression by the team on the defensive end. An offsetting increase in offensive efficiency may be needed to match last season's win-loss results.

On team depth:

After "toughness" and "rebounding," the word "depth" ranks right up there when you're playing word association with the name "Tom Izzo." The 2009-10 team should have it (note that we haven't even mentioned Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman, two players capable of being the 9th or 10th guys on a Big Ten contender). If anything, the challenge is to fit all the depth together, balancing out the relatively experienced group of perimeter players with the less experienced cadre of post guys.

While, of course, there really isn't a magic ratio that automatically leads to Big Ten titles and postseason success, I will posit that depth is a prerequisite for success for Izzo-coached teams. (Other coaches don't necessarily need it.) Based on what we know right now, that prerequisite has been met.

Man, am I prolific or what? (Ignore the fact that these posts were written over a period of approximately 200 days.) So what have I missed? What do you see as the key(s) to success this season? Which player's improvement is most integral to the team replicating the stupendous results of last season? Just how anxious are you to get this show started?

Back to Normal - MSU 76, Northwood 45

Pete Rossman — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 23:25:57 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Kalin Lucas puts up a fast-break shot over Northwood's Booker Stoudmire during the second half of an NCAA college basketball exhibition game, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

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For the first half, it looked as if the basketball team had picked up the football team's hangover from last night. MSU was 1-9 on three pointers, 10-28 on two-pointers, and led by three at the half. This was despite getting 11 turnovers from Northwood and having 11 more rebounds than the Timberwolves.

In the second half, a sense of normalcy finally returned to East Lansing, thanks to Durrell Summers. Summers sparked the Spartans' scoring in the second half by making his first four goals, one of those a three-pointer, and State never looked back, scoring 43 points to Northwood's 15 in the second half.

Here are some of my early impressions from the game:

This was a physical game, especially for an exhibition. Lucas, Roe, and Summers all went down at different points in the game. Lucas was alright, no word yet on Roe and Summers.
Same old Lucas. Still quick, still dominant, still maybe tries to drive to the basket slightly too much. (edit - maybe too much - Kalin was apparently 5-21 on field goals? Yikes.)
Of the three big men, I'd rank their performance as so: Nix, then Sherman, then Herzog. Derrick Nix has a sweet drop step and used it a few times in this game to great effectiveness. Garrick Sherman was unremarkable, but effective. Herzog had a couple of good putbacks and blocks, but doesn't seem as strong or explosive as Sherman or Nix.
Favorite moment of the game - Draymond Green in the second half attempting to dunk twelve feet from the rim. He didn't get the basket, but he drew a foul and annihilated whoever the poor defender was from Northwood who tried to defend him. He's deceptively athletic, and had a double-double (14 pts, 11 rebounds).
The Spartans' shooting looks a bit rusty - 36% 2PT, 22% 3PT, 60% FT. Let's hope it was the team getting back up to speed since April.
Turnovers weren't a problem - only 11 in the game for MSU. Draymond Green had four of those.
Assist leader - Korie Lucious with 5. Green had the second-most with 4.

Not a bad first effort for Michigan State, especially in the second half. The second and last exhibition game will be next Monday, November 9th at 7 PM against Grand Valley State, and I'd never thought I'd write the past statement in my lifetime.

Preseason Musings: Depth

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:42:38 -0000

Depth ratio, as formulated last June:

Depth Ratio = (minutes played by top two players) / (minutes played by 8th and 9th players)

This ratio allows us to compare a single number across different teams and captures two key aspects of having depth:

Not relying too heavily on one or two players to play nearly all of the minutes in important games, thereby reducing their ability to defend, rebound, and push the ball in transition with the intensity Izzo prefers.

Having enough bench players to allow everyone to play hard every minute they’re on the floor and be able to deal with foul trouble. Nearly every basketball team has to have seven guys who play significant minutes (five starters plus one perimeter bench player and one interior bench player). Having two more bench players you can count on is what sets a good Izzo team apart from other teams.

As applied to Izzo-era Michigan State basketball teams, the magic number turned out to be 3.00. Teams with ratios below that number have hung some banners at Breslin. Teams with ratios above that number, not so much.

Would the magic depth ratio rule hold for the 2008-09 season?

Season	Depth Ratio	B10 Record	NCAA Result
2002-03	2.35	10 – 6	Elite 8
1998-99	2.62	15 – 1	Final 4
1999-2000	2.67	13 – 3	Nat Champ
2004-05	2.74	13 – 3	Final 4
2008-09	2.90	15 – 3	Nat Runner Up
2007-08	2.90	12 – 4	Sweet 16
1997-98	2.91	13 – 3	Sweet 16
2000-01	2.93	13 – 3	Final 4
2001-02	3.14	10 – 6	1st Rd Loss
1996-97	3.28	9 – 9	–
2006-07	3.96	8 – 8	2nd Rd Loss
2003-04	4.39	12 – 4	1st Rd Loss
2005-06	4.51	8 – 8	1st Rd Loss

In the immortal words of Marv Albert: Yes!

Now you could argue that MSU's depth ratio was somewhat artificially deflated since the #9 player, Marquise Gray, received extra playing time due to Goran Suton's injury early in the season. But the team also had a #10 player, Korie Lucious, who averaged 9.0 minutes/game. This was a classically-deep Tom Izzo team.

Here's how the players on last year's team stacked up in Minute% compared to the prior year's team, along with a projection of the top ten players for the upcoming season.

	2007-08		2008-09		2009-10
1	Neitzel	79.0	Lucas	79.8	Lucas
2	Morgan	69.2	Walton	69.4	Morgan
3	Suton	66.6	Suton	56.3	Roe
4	Lucas	62.6	Summers	53.4	Summers
5	Walton	58.8	Morgan	51.8	Allen
6	Naymick	53.1	Allen	47.6	Green
7	Gray	32.6	Roe	44.9	Lucious
8	Allen	31.0	Green	27.8	Herzog
9	Summers	27.2	Gray	23.8	Sherman
10	--	--	Lucious	22.6	Nix

Going from 2007-08 to 2008-09, Kalin Lucas stepped up to fill Drew Neitzel's shoes as the 30-minutes-per-game guy, with Korie Lucious becoming the back-up point guard option. Delvon Roe, with help from Draymond Green, replaced Drew Naymick. And the #8 and #9 guys from the 2007-08 team, then-freshmen Chris Allen and Durrell Summers, became 20-minutes-per-game players.

In other words: Freshman contributed real minutes right off the bat, and sophomores weren't freshmen any more.

Going into the 2009-10 season, those same two things need to happen. Roe and Green need to suck up the bulk of the minutes Goran Suton is leaving behind, while Korie Lucious fills in at least some of Travis Walton's minutes. At the bottom of the PT spectrum, some combination of Tom Herzog (who is, in some sense, a 4th-year freshman), Garrick Sherman, and Derrick Nix will need to fill those crucial 8th and 9th spots in the rotation.

A lack of interior depth has sunk Spartan basketball campaigns before:

2001-02, following the graduation of Andre Hutson and the early entry of Zach Randolph into the NBA draft.
2003-04, following the graduation of Aloysius Anagonye and the early entry of Erazem Lorbek into . . . wherever it is he entered.

In both cases, young post players (Jason Andreas and Adam Wolfe as sophomores in 2001-02, Drew Naymick and Delco Rowley as freshmen in 2003-04) were unable to fill the void down low.

Hopefully, absent injuries, this season won't parallel either of those two situations. There's only one starter-level post player to replace. And Herzog and the two freshmen are already showing more signs of being able to contribute than the guys in parentheses in the previous paragraph were in a position to during the early stages of their careers.

After "toughness" and "rebounding," the word "depth" ranks right up there when you're playing word association with the name "Tom Izzo." The 2009-10 team should have it (note that we haven't even mentioned Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman, two players capable of being the 9th or 10th guys on a Big Ten contender). If anything, the challenge is to fit all the depth together, balancing out the relatively experienced group of perimeter players with the less experienced cadre of post guys.

While, of course, there really isn't a magic ratio that automatically leads to Big Ten titles and postseason success, I will posit that depth is a prerequisite for success for Izzo-coached teams. (Other coaches don't necessarily need it.) Based on what we know right now, that prerequisite has been met.

Finally, it's worth noting that the past two seasons were the first back-to-back sub-3.00-depth-ratio years since the early Izzo-era Final Four run. The major factors in the peaks/valleys over the 2001-2007 time frame were (1) a rash of early departures (Jason Richardson, Randolph, Marcus Taylor, Lorbek, Brandon Cotton [a VERY early departure], Shannon Brown) and (2) the bunching up of the Hill/Torbert/Anderson/Davis/Ager core playing group, all of whom departed (along with Brown) in a two-year period. (Historical MSU roster is here.)

It would appear Tom Izzo has been able to adjust his recruiting approach to avoid an excess of early-departure guys. The second problem is probably unavoidable as a matter of basic mathematics (Roe/Green/Lucious will depart the year after Lucas/Allen/Summers/Herzog do), but depth-ratio valleys separated by periods of 2-3 years would certainly be preferable to annual fluctuations we've seen prior to these past two years. With a little luck, Izzo can keep the line on the chart below hovering around 3.00 for another decade (or two).

MSU Green-White Basketball Scrimmage Recap

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 01:00:29 -0000

Yay, basketball! A sport that doesn't make us think about sharp objects!

The lineup format for the scrimmage was first team (Green) vs. second team (White). The starting lineup for the Green team--and, therefore, the presumed opening game lineup at this point--was Lucas/Allen/Morgan/Roe/Herzog. In the second half, though, Summers took Allen's spot and Green took Roe's, indicating that Izzo is basically thinking of seven players as starter quality.

These things always end up being offensive showcases (although the defensive intensity was a notch up from the Midnight Madness scrimmage a week ago). Hence 149 points scored in a 40-minute game involving quite a few players who don't normally score much outside of layup lines. It doesn't look like MSU is going to post a full box score, which is fine since the stats won't tell us much anyway. Chris Allen (22), Kalin Lucas (19), and Isaiah Dahlman (18) were your leading scorers; more on them below.

One stat we do have that's encouraging is the 44.8% combined 3-point shooting percentage put up between the two teams. With Allen, Lucious, and Summers sucking up Travis Walton's minutes this year, the team will likely take substantially more shots from beyond the arc. Knocking down 3-point looks consistently will, therefore, be a bigger key to success this season.

Defensively, there wasn't much to write home about. At halftime, Tom Izzo took questions from the crowd. One of the questions was something like, "Who's your best defensive player right now?" To which Izzo replied, "We don't have one yet." Truth be told, I think the answer is going to be Delvon Roe. Now that he's close to 100% healthwise, he showed a knack for jumping into passing lanes and making steals. Combine that with his defensive rebounding prowess and the surprisingly good blocked-shot rate he put up last season, and he could well contend for a spot on the Big Ten All-Defensive Team.

Also of note: The team did play some 2-3 zone in the second half, so maybe Izzo is serious is about using it more this year in order to mask the inexperience among the post defenders.

Player-by-player impressions:

Kalin Lucas: As quick as ever. 3-point release looks a little more fluid.
Korie Lucious: I was surprised when he took the court to participate in the scrimmage, given that he's been cleared to practice for less than two weeks. But, after that initial surprise, I didn't think about his foot injury again, as he looked completely natural running the point for the White team. Very good news.
Chris Allen: Looked very confident shooting the ball and making moves going toward the basket. None of the hesitation that plagued him for a long stretch of last season. Can he maintain that over 30+ games?
Durrell Summers: Man, can he jump. At one point, someone threw a high pass to him in the corner of the court we were sitting adjacent to (in the lower student section). It looked like he was taking off to fly when he went up for the ball, which he retrieved.
Raymar Morgan: I'm not sure his game is really suited to these sorts of scrimmages, which is fine. Jumpshot looks improved, although still a bit line-drivish. Took and made at least one 3-pointer without hesitating.
Draymond Green: Has slimmed down even more. Took the ball to the hoop without fear, with mixed results. A couple fabulous interior no-look passes. Took a rare preseason-intrasquad-scrimmage charge. Ran the fast break after grabbing a defensive rebound several times. A commenter mentioned him as a point guard possibility if Lucious were to miss any time; I don't think that's out of the realm of possibilities. With the graduation of Goran Suton (who was at the scrimmage), Green is now officially my favorite Spartan.
Delvon Roe: See above regarding his defense. Free throw shooting was fine; no problems on those front-enders. Looks to have improved his mid-range shooting ability, as well.
Tom Herzog: Much more assertive on both ends of court, with a couple strong dunks off passes. Still a few awkward moments, though. Noticed in pregame warm-ups he's got really nice touch on his 15-foot jumpshot; soft release with nice rotation on the ball.
Derrick Nix: Even with the weight he's lost, he's still a load. "Laboring" is the word that comes to mind watching him get up and down the court. But when he gets the ball near the basket, he can't be stopped.
Garrick Sherman: Looked, dare I say it, somewhat Sutonesque. Good nose for finding the ball on the boards; knack for finding ways to score or get fouled down low. Seemed to fade a bit as the scrimmage went on, though. Also, not quite as big as I was thinking he was.
Isaiah Dahlman: Even before he scored his points, I thought his outside shot looked improved; quicker release, good rotation on the ball. Looking to take a leadership role as a senior, directing teammates throughout the game. Could he contribute a few big shots/plays in his final season as a Spartan?
Austin Thornton: Didn't have much impact on the game. Not buying the he's-a-power-forward-now idea. Best shot at regular PT is as a Tim-Bograkos-like defensive spark plug. Might be room for one of those with Walton gone.
Mike Kebler: He can dunk! In warm-ups, at least. Might be more athletic than I had realized and a real option to play a few minutes at PG in a pinch.
Jon Crandell and Anthony Ianni: Thank you for your willingness to play hard in practice, gentlemen.

Overall, the positive takeaway is that Herzog and the two freshmen showed quite a bit of poise and the ability to make varying contributions. My guess is that their respective shares of the playing time down low will fluctuate over the course of the season, depending on match-ups, as none of them look to have the complete package at this point. Herzog against teams with real low-post scoring threats. Sherman against smaller opponents. Nix in short stretches of 2-3 minutes to wear opposing big men down. None of the three when Izzo decides to unleash what will quite possibly be the fastest, most-athletic 1-through-5 lineup in the country with Green/Roe at the 4/5 spots.

Finally, a few amateur photos with super witty captions for your enjoyment:

Korie Lucious trying to bring back the Steve Urkel look.

Raymar Morgan's jumpshot: Now with bonus range!

Sherman thinking, "Let's impress those TOC guys with a stand-out Free Throw Rate today."

"It's just a scrimmage. Don't hurt anyone."

Best basketball player tattoo ever?

Remember this guy?

I'm open! And I can shoot now!

50 pounds later, still plenty of weight to throw around.

Nameless guard goes strong to the hoop.

Oops. Wrong photo album. Stay away from sharp objects.

BtB 2009-10 Big Ten Preview

Chris Dobbertean — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 18:44:34 -0000

For all of the beating that the Big Ten took during a particularly rough and tumble regular season, the conference really validated itself in the postseason. Those March and April performances bode well for this season, especially considering that the Big Ten's main contenders didn't lose as much as the contenders in other conferences. For example, all five players on the coaches' All-Big Ten team from last season are back.

The two teams who progressed furthest in the NCAAs, national runner-up Michigan State and regional semifinalist Purdue are the clear favorites in the league, and both teams could make a serious run at a MIdwestern Final Four. Penn State, the NIT champions, will look to improve their standing enough to get into the Big Dance this time around. And of course, Northwestern will look to really shake things up in the league and make it to the NCAAs for the first time. In between, the Big Ten's other five NCAA entrants will attempt to stay in the field. The biggest thing for the conference this year is separating itself from the other BCS leagues, especially in non-conference play. With the Big Ten being hyper-competitive this year, its members really need to distinguish themselves during the early part of the season. Otherwise, teams will be clumped together on lines 8 through 12 of the bracket like last year, which doesn't bode well for sustained tourney runs. More on all 11 teams after the jump.

To refresh your memory, let's take a look at how the Big Ten standings looked at the end of the 2008-09 regular season.

Big Ten Conference Standings

(updated 4.7.2009 at 12:23 AM EDT)

	Conf		Overall
	W	L	W	L
Michigan St. Spartans	15	3	31	7
Purdue Boilermakers	11	7	27	10
Illinois Fighting Illini	11	7	24	10
Penn St. Nittany Lions	10	8	27	11
Ohio St. Buckeyes	10	8	22	11
Wisconsin Badgers	10	8	20	13
Minnesota Golden Gophers	9	9	22	11
Michigan Wolverines	9	9	21	14
Northwestern Wildcats	8	10	17	14
Iowa Hawkeyes	5	13	15	17
Indiana Hoosiers	1	17	6	25

Now, here are my picks for 2009-10, presented in reverse order. If a school's name appears in red, that's a link to its SBNation site. You can go there for more detailed analysis throughout the season.

Iowa (last NCAA: 2006) The long rebuilding process continues for Todd Lickliter. It looks to be another long year in Iowa City, especially since the Hawkeyes have real point guard issues after Jake Kelly (transfer to Indiana State for family reasons) and Jeff Peterson (transfer to Arkansas) left the program. 6-1 frosh Cully Payne will have to adjust to the Big Ten game fast, as he will have to be the main option. If he doesn't, expect sophomore Anthony Tucker (10.4 ppg, 0.6 apg) to move over from shooting guard. The team's only other returning double-digit scorer, Matt Gatens (10.8 ppg), will be a force as he can really shoot the ball (40.3 % from the perimeter and 90.4 % from the free throw line). The Hawkeyes really need more contributions inside, where Jarryd Cole has battled injuries and struggled offensively, which has also been a problem for the rest of Iowa's frontline players.

Indiana (last NCAA: 2008) Tom Crean is also in a rebuilding situation, but he loaded up on recruits this offseason, something Lickliter couldn't quite do. Jeremiah Rivers, son of Boston Celtics coach Doc and a Georgetown transfer, is now eligible and will run the offense. Rivers' steady hand should improve a team that rated near the bottom of Division I in assist/turnover ratio. Meanwhile, the incoming freshmen are so highly regarded that last year's leaders may see reduced playing time. Rivers' arrival, and that of freshman Jordan Hulls, will eat into Verdell Jones' playing time (11 ppg, 3,6 apg). 6-5 Maurice Creek will take time away from Devan Dumes (12.7 ppg). In the frontcourt, Tom Pritchard (9.7 ppg, 6.4 rpg) will still see significant time, and he'll be joined by freshmen Bobby Capobianco, Derek Elston, Bawa Muniru, and Christian Watford. Considering that Crean's returning frontcourt players not named Tom Pritchard only average 0.8 ppg, they should see plenty of action. If they adjust to the Big Ten quickly, the Hoosiers may win some of those close games they tended to lose in 2008-09.

Penn State (last NCAA: 2001) You rarely see teams as happy about winning the NIT than the Nittany Lions last year. PSU had a real case for an NCAA bid, thanks to 10 league wins, but a non-conference schedule full of cupcakes cost them. On that front, the Lions hope they can get some big wins in the Charleston Classic to help their case this time around. In terms of personnel, the good news is that all-Big Ten first teamer Talor Battle (16.7 ppg, 5 apg) is back. The bad news is that his backcourt mates, Stanley Pringle (12.8 ppg) and Danny Morrissey (5.3 ppg) are gone and so is star forward Jamelle Cornley (14.4 ppg, 6.3 rpg). The effectiveness of their replacements will dictate the Nittany Lions' chances of moving up. Sophomores Chris Babb (2.8 ppg) and Cammeron Woodyard (2.2 ppg) will have to step it up to replace Pringle, but incoming freshman Tim Frazier will also play a big role in the backcourt. In the frontcourt, 6-9 Andrew Jones (6.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg) is expected to increase his production to make up for Cornley's graduation, so will David Jackson. Both Jones and Jackson played key roles in PSU's NIT run. Serbian freshman Sasa Borovnjak and redshirt frosh Billy Oliver will also see lots of time inside.

Wisconsin (last NCAA: 2009) The Badgers struggled on offense and defense last year. However, Bo Ryan's team was able to right the ship after dropping six in a row in January to sneak into the tournament and grab a first round win over Florida State. However, Ryan lost two key performers off that team, swingman Joe Krabbenhoft and F Marcus Landry. Jason Bohannon (10.3 ppg, 1.7 apg) and Trevon Hughes (12.1 ppg, 2.8 apg) are back, however, so the backcourt remains in good shape, typical of a Ryan-coached team. The returning frontcourt players, led by 6-10 F Jon Leuer (8.8 ppg, 3.8 ppg) and 6-8 Keaton Nankivil (4.5 ppg, 2.5 rpg) will have to be tougher to adequately replace Landry and Krabbenhoft. Look out for the Badgers' two redshirt freshmen, Jared Berggren and Ryan Evans, as they should see significant frontcourt time as well. If the frontline improves significantly, the Badgers could go dancing for the 12th straight year.

Northwestern (last NCAA: None) While Wisconsin (and the rest of the league) has become a consistent NCAA performer, the Wildcats are the complete opposite. Once again, NU is the only team in a BCS conference to fail to qualify for a single NCAA tournament. On March 4, the men from Evanston stood at 17-11, after winning at Indiana, against Iowa at home, and at Purdue. They then managed to lose at Ohio State by 5 to finish 8-10 in the conference. If that wasn't bad enough, they then fell to Minnesota by 13 in the opening round of the conference tournament. The Wildcats cannot let something similar happen this season. Personnel-wise, the Wildcats bring back nearly everyone from last year, most importantly all-Big Ten second teamer Kevin Coble (15.5 ppg, 4.8 apg) and point guard Michael Thompson (9.9 ppg, 3.7 apg), a deadly three-point shooter (41.7%). The major loss is guard Craig Moore (14.3 ppg, 2.7 apg) who graduated. Incoming frosh Drew Crawford could slide into Moore's slot on the roster. He's the son of NBA referee Danny Crawford. If coach Bill Carmody can squeeze a little more from his returnees, who provided solid, if unspectacular and inconsistent performances throughout last season, the Wildcats will finally make the field of 65.

Minnesota (last NCAA: 2009) Expectations are high for Tubby Smith's third season in the Twin Cities. The Gophers will have to find a way to play Michigan State and Michigan better, as they didn't manage to win a single game against those two teams (0-5). The Gophers return all of their key performers from last season, including leading scorer Lawrence Westbrook (12.6 ppg), second leading scorer Damian Johnson (9.8 ppg), point guard Al Nolen (6.5 ppg, 4.3 apg), and big men Ralph Sampson III (6.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg) and Colton Iverson (5.4 ppg, 3.6 rpg). Sampson and Iverson should see more time at center thanks to the arrival of 6-7 freshman Royce White and JC transfer Trevor Mbakwe, if he's ever cleared to play. Mbakwe is due to go on trial for assault in South Florida in December. Nolen could also see the bench if he's as inconsistent as he was during Big Ten play, thanks to the arrival of freshman PG Justin Cobbs. The Gophers are drawn against Butler in the 76 Classic in Anaheim, which should be a good indicator of how well this team will perform in 2009-10.

Michigan (last NCAA: 2009) Much like with Tubby Smith's Minnesota team. great things are expected in Ann Arbor during John Beilein's third season. Beilein's offensive and defensive philosophies usually take consistent hold in that third season, and the team's performance improves as a result. One of the Wolverines' biggest needs is in the frontcourt, where DeShawn Sims (15.4 ppg, 6.8 rpg) was often left on an island last season. Seven-foot, redshirt freshman Ben Cronin should provide some help, as should 6-8 frosh Jordan Morgan, if he plays. Beilein may redshirt him depending on how well he's recovered from offseason knee surgery. 6-10 frosh Blake McLimans and 6-6 junior Anthony Wright may be called into duty frequently. The backcourt is the strength of this UM squad, led by all-Big Ten performer Manny Harris (16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.4 apg). Harris should get more time to drive to the hoop (and get to the foul line), thanks to the arrival of freshman Darius Morris, who is expected to take over at the point. The reserve backcourt players need to show more consistency, as none averaged more than 6.7 ppg, despite some impressive shooting nights.

Illinois (last NCAA: 2009) While the Illini lost guards Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham, the returnees and Bruce Weber's best ever recruiting class should keep the squad near the top of the Big Ten. Demetri McCarney (11.5 ppg, 4.6 apg) already has plenty of experience at the point to replace Frazier. Incoming freshman D.J. Richardson will be called on to replace Meacham, especially from the defensive perspective. Brandon Paul, another heralded recruit, will be an inside-outside threat. In the frontcourt, Mike Davis very nearly averaged a double-double last season (11.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg), so he'll continue to be a force. Mike Tisdale could be a star if he's more aggressive. He has plenty of room to improve on the 10 points and 4 boards he averaged last season.

Ohio State (last NCAA: 2009) The Buckeyes did pretty well last season, winning 22 games and making the Big Ten title game despite losing G/F David Lighty in the seventh game of the year. With Lighty back and all-Big Ten selection/jack-of-all-trades Evan Turner still around, the Buckeyes should be even better this time around. Joining Turner as offensive forces are guards William Buford and Jon Diebler who both averaged a little more than 11 points a game. While Thad Matta has a lot of guys who can shoot, he doesn't have a true point guard. Not that this issue really stopped the Buckeyes last year. Jeremie Simmons (6.8 ppg, 2.5 apg) and P.J. Hill (3.2 ppg, 1.9 apg) saw some time at the point after Anthony Crater's departure for South Florida, with Hill making more of an impact. If the two have issues, Turner, who averaged 4 assists per game last year, could spend some time running the offense. Turner will also see time in the frontcourt, where Lighty will serve as OSU's power forward (9.7 ppg, 5.7 rpg). 6-8 junior Dallas Lauderdale and 7-foot UAB transfer Zisis Sarikopoulos will occupy the post. OSU will be tested early, thanks to a matchup with defending National Champion North Carolina at the Coaches vs. Cancer event in New York, followed by a game with either California or Syracuse.

Purdue (last NCAA: 2009) The Boilermakers bring back nearly everyone from last season's team, which fell to UConn in the West regional semifinals. Thanks to the graduation of Nemanja Calasan, Matt Painter has only two returning post players. However, they're two good ones. Robbie Hummel (12.5 ppg, 7 rpg) should be fully recovered from a stress fracture in his back that cost him five games last season. Meanwhile, 6-10 junior JaJuan Johnson (13.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg) is one of the most electrifying players in the country. They'll be backed up by a crop of freshmen, led by 6-10 Croatian C Sandi Marcius. Purdue's backcourt remains intact. Chris Kramer will provide the defense, E'Twaun Moore the scoring--and some assists (13.8 ppg, 3.0 apg), while Lewis Jackson (5.9 ppg, 3.3 apg) will run the show. The Boilermakers' commitment to defense, led by Kramer, Johnson, and Jackson, is a major reason why they will seriously threaten to make the short trip to Indy this season. If they avoid the health issues of last season, they should get a seed that will help their path.

Michigan State (last NCAA: 2009) While the Boilermakers will attempt to do what the Spartans did last year, make a short trip in state to play in the season's final weekend, don't discount MSU, a team that has plenty of history of its own in Indianapolis. Tom Izzo has a team that may be able repeat Sparty's 2000 triumph. Kalin Lucas, the Big Ten Player of the Year is back at the point. Raymar Morgan is back in the frontcourt. But the biggest questions are how well the Spartan frontcourt plays without Goran Suton and who replaces Travis Walton's defensive prowess in the backcourt. Junior Tom Herzog and incoming freshmen Derrick Nix and Garrick Sherman will be given every chance to fill Suton's shoes. Meanwhile, Lucas will have to play more of a defensive role this season than in the past, to make up for Walton's absence. While Lucas is the unquestioned star of the team, he'll need lots of support from players like guards Chris Allen (8.4 ppg) and Durrell Summers (8.6 ppg), and F Delvon Roe (5.6 ppg, 5.2 rpg) to make a second straight Final Four run.

So, the Spartans will hold the Big Ten's auto bid in my 2009-10 Final Preseason Bracket, which I will release on November 9. Check in then to see what other teams from the conference I've penciled in at the start of the season. To wrap up this preview, here is my preseason All-Big Ten team, featuring the best returning players from last season.

Preseason All-Big Ten Team

Player of the Year: Evan Turner, 6-7 G/F, Jr. (Ohio State)

Remainder of the Team
Talor Battle, 5-11 G, Jr. (Penn State)
Manny Harris, 6-5 G, Jr. (Michigan)
JaJuan Johnson, 6-10 F, Jr. (Purdue)
Kalin Lucas, 6-0 G, Jr. (Michigan State)

Poll

Who is your pick to win the Big Ten this season?

Illinois

72 votes

Indiana

4 votes

Iowa

5 votes

Michigan

12 votes

Michigan State

106 votes

Minnesota

9 votes

Northwestern

5 votes

Ohio State

14 votes

Penn State

20 votes

Purdue

49 votes

Wisconsin

4 votes

300 votes | Poll has closed