SB Nation - Draymond Green

Tempo-Free Overanalysis: The Sequel

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 02:34:02 -0000

Last night, I overanalyzed MSU's individual tempo-free numbers. Tonight, I'll overanalyze the team-level numbers. (The tempo-free primer is here, in case you missed it.)

On Offense

The team's adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.6 (23rd nationally) is right in line with last season's figure of 115.0 (20th). MSU hasn't lost an inch in the offensive rebounding department (43.9%, 7th nationally) and is showing substantial improvement in its effective field goal percentage (55.2%).

The team's 2-point shooting percentage of 56.6% is a full 8 points higher than the figure posted last season. Draymond Green and Delvon Roe are scoring efficiently inside, and Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen have showed remarkable accuracy when they've ventured inside the 3-point arc. There's some concern the efficient interior scoring will disappear when we start playing teams that can match/exceed our size inside (the team ranks 7th in the nation in lowest percentage of offensive shots blocked), but to date the shooting struggles against quality opponents have been from 3-point range (combined 7-41 vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC), not 2-point range (83-154).

Overall, the team's 3-point accuracy has been middling: 34.0%. And the team is actually taking slightly fewer 3-pointers than it did last season (26.1% of total FG attempts vs. 26.6% last season), despite Korie Lucious filling in a lot of the minutes Travis Walton left behind.

Offsetting the increased 2-point scoring efficiency has been a marked reduction in the number of trips to the free throw line. The team's free throw rate of 35.7 ranks just 195th in the country. Expect to see that number go up, while the 2-point shooting number goes down, as the team heads into Big Ten play. MSU ranks just 269th in the nation in free throw percentage at 64.4%--although that number's actually pretty remarkable when you consider it includes Derrick Nix's 2-23 performance at the charity stripe.

Finally, the turnover percentage number looks pretty good in the aggregate: 20.0%. But there's been a lot of volatility over the 10 games: 5 games below 17 percent, 3 above 25 percent. Included in the latter category are the giveaway explosions versus Gonzaga and Florida.

On Defense

The adjusted defensive efficiency figure of 90.9 (44th) is lagging well behind last season's figure of 88.4 (10th). The initial instinct would be to chalk that up to the graduation of Travis Walton. But the area in which Walton made the biggest contribution--limiting the number of good looks opposing scorers got at the basket--is actually looking pretty good. Opponents are shooting just 43.4% from 2-point range and 30.4% from 3-point range.

The issue to date has been the number of shots opponents have been allowed to take. MSU is creating a turnover on just 18.3% of possessions and allowing opponents to gather 29.3% of missed shots. That second number is still pretty good, ranking 60th in the country, but it falls short of the 27.3% figure posted last season (11th best in the country). No opponent has posted an offensive rebounding percentage above 35%.

Going forward, we'll see if the team is more like the 2008 Spartans, who were very good on the offensive glass but just OK on the defensive glass, or the 2009 Spartans, who were excellent on both ends of the court. That may be a stretch, given that Green and Roe are both rebounding the ball more efficiently than they did last season on the defensive end (and Raymar Morgan isn't too far behind his 2009 figure); the lack of interior depth is an issue here.

While Tom Izzo-coached teams have never relied heavily on creating turnovers, it would be good to see the team's defensive turnover percentage inch up a little. Morgan, Lucas, Green, and Roe are all posting decent steal percentages, though, so it's unclear how to make that happen; it's not necessarily a lack of aggresiveness.

On a positive note, MSU isn't allowing opponents to get to the free throw line as much as they did last season--although the similar-sized reductions in free throw rate on both sides of the ball could just be an indication of the less-physicial nature of nonconference play.

Summing Things Up

Most of the numbers above don't come as much of a shock. As expected, this team looks better on offense than it does on defense. Setting the Gonzaga/Florida/UNC games aside, MSU has posted an offensive efficiency figure no lower than 109.9 against its seven lower-tier opponents.

You can argue, however, that's it been offensive inconsistency in the areas of 3-point shooting and turnovers that have resulted in the two losses against good opponents and the need for a big home-court comeback against the third quality foe the team's faced.

Given the lack of depth and (experienced) height down low, the ceiling on this team's defensive prowess probably isn't as high as those of the last few MSU teams (although at least marginal improvement will be needed to contend in conference and tournament play). That means the margin for error on offense will be fairly small. Being as good as last season's team on offense won't cut it; they're going to need to be better.

The positive spin here is that this team could be undefeated with just a few more 3-pointers and/or slightly fewer turnovers against Florida and UNC. The negative spin is that the team has yet to put together a complete offensive performance against a team with comparable talent. Another opportunity to make that happens comes in just 6 days.

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:07:36 -0000

Why is it the most wonderful time of the year?

Well, among other reasons, because individual tempo-free numbers are up at KenPom!

It's obviously still very early--with just 400 minutes of basketball under the belts of the 2009-10 Spartan basketball team (and only 120 of those against BCS-conference-level competition)--so the numbers are still what economists would call "advance." But, hey, they're new numbers. So we must analyze them.

Player bullets after the jump (explanation of individual tempo-free numbers is here):

Kalin Lucas' shooting numbers are looking pretty spiffy: .557/.429/.756. Having more offensive options on the floor this season may be helping boost his 2-point shooting percentage, as he doesn't have to try to manufacture shots late in the shot clock as often as he did last season. His assist rate is down a bit (even more so compared to where it was during nonconference play last season), a function of playing at the 2-guard spot alongside Lucious more often.
Draymond Green ranks in the top 500 nationally in 7 different tempo-free categories. But we've already waxed poetic on his efficiency.
Durrell Summers is the only player among the top 7 Spartans (by minutes played) with an offensive rating below 114. His stands at just 95.9. His 2-point (.492) and free throw (.840) percentages are pretty solid, though. Three-point shooting (.240), offensive rebounding (4.9), and turnovers (23.3) are the areas that need to improve.
Raymar Morgan's numbers are pretty good considering the injury issues early on: offensive rating of 114.8, contributing on the boards (10.4/16.6), steal rate at 2.8. It's all about finding some level of consistency: 4 games with 16+ points, 3 with 4 points or fewer.
Derrick Nix is sporting a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 20.0 and a nice block rate of 6.0 in his limited minutes. I don't think I need to mention what his statistical weakness is, do I?
Chris Allen is a "role player"? His Shot% is down from 28.4 last season to 22.0 this season. The upside is he's shooting a very efficient .647 from 2-point range and an acceptable .364 from beyond the arc. The downside is he's completely disappeared against good compeititon: total of 14 points vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC.
Delvon Roe's got some nice numbers for a guy who went scoreless in his first two (concussion-affected) games: top 150 in both offensive/defensive rebounding percentage, as well as block percentage, and a .604 two-point shooting percentage.
Korie Lucious is doing exactly what he needs to do from a statistical standpoint: distributing the ball with frequency (assist rate of 32.1) and keeping the turnovers down (TO% of 17.8, way down from last year's 32.0).
Austin Thornton is turning the ball over (26.2) and fouling too much (10.0 fouls created per 40 minutes) when he gets on the floor.
Garrick Sherman's numbers are decent (2pt% of .542, OffReb% of 13.9), especially considering a fairly high percentage of his minutes have come at the starts of games.
Isaiah Dahlman is leading the team in offensive rating at 135.8 (hitting 3 of 6 three-point attempts). But he still doesn't find a way to get involved in the offense with regularity when he's on the floor: usage rate of 11.8.

We'll leave off there and take a look at some of the team-level numbers later this week. It's never good to open all your present at once, right?

12/10 Game Links

SFBE.NF — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 15:31:40 -0000

Cincinnati tops Miami-OH, eyes fixated on Brian Kelly

Draymond Green an offensive threat? Spartans rout Oakland

URI squeaks past Northeastern

Colorado St. remains undefeated at home, tops Buffs

College Hoops Go-Round: December 11

Chris Dobbertean — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 14:14:52 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

Syracuse's Rick Jackson (00) celebrates with teammate Wes Johnson (4) were the stars of the Orange's 85-73 win over Florida Thursday, Dec. 10, 2009, in Tampa. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Night two of the SEC/Big East Invitational was the main action on a quiet Thursday night. The two leagues split the doubleheader in Tampa, which means there are no bragging rights this year, thanks to a 2-2 overall series mark.

DePaul was no match for Mississippi State in game one, falling 76-45. As I mentioned at SB Nation, it was one of the quietest crowds I've ever seen for a neutral site game.
The crowd was no issue in game two, as plenty of Orange and Gator fans filled the lower tier of the building formerly known as the Ice Palace. They got to see No. 10 Florida give No. 7 Syracuse a fight before falling, 85-73. Rick Jackson and Wes Johnson both had double-doubles for the Orange, while Kenny Boynton had 20 points and 7 assists for the Gators, with Chandler Parsons adding 19.

In other Thursday night action

No. 12 Michigan State blasted Oakland, 88-57, thanks to 19 points and 12 boards from Draymond Green.
No. 19 Cincinnati held off local rivals Miami, 63-59.
Rhode Island knocked off Northeastern, 79-76.
Western Carolina won again, as they knocked off Campbell, 66-59.
Colorado was pounded by Colorado State in Fort Collins, 77-62.
Montana came back to win on the road at Loyola Marymount, 82-73.

Friday is a good night to do your holiday shopping (like I will) as there isn't much available to a national audience.

The only game available nationally via Full Court is Iowa at Iowa State (8 p.m. ET). The Hawkeyes and Cyclones are playing for second (at best) in the Hawkeye State, as both have already lost to UNI.

The big event of the night is the Sun Belt Invitational in Nashville, where two Sun Belt teams face SEC opponents. Unfortunately, this showcase is only on regional television in parts of the Southeast.

No. 9 Tennessee vs. Middle Tennessee (CSS, 7)
Vanderbilt vs. Western Kentucky (CSS, 9:30)

For a full list of televised games, including contests that are only going to be televised regionally (including Old Dominion at Dayton), visit Matt Sarz' College Sports on TV site.

The Dancing Bear's Recital: Michigan State 88, Oakland 57

KJ@theonlycolors — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 03:47:21 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

[Insert Wonder Twins joke here.]

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If you're like me (and, admit it, you're at least a little bit like me), this is the kind of game that makes you want to go straight to the four-factors graph:

NCAA Basketball Stats

When this team wins the turnover battle and shoots 62.8% from 2-point range, it's generally going to win the game pretty comfortably. MSU ran out to a 30-7 lead over the first 14 minutes of the game and coasted to a 31-point victory. The Grizzlies looked like a team that wasn't functioning very smoothly coming into this game, and MSU made sure they never had a chance to find any kind of comfort level tonight.

If I were going to find a downside to this game, I'd point to these things:

Neither Chris Allen nor Raymar Morgan could get things going offensively.
A lot of the OU turnovers seemed like a function of their inability to make competent ball-handling moves more so than MSU's defense. (12 steals for MSU.)
Ultimately, the MSU big men couldn't contain Keith Benson: 21 points on 7-15 FG shooting and 11 rebounds. (He made some pretty good moves in the second half, though.)

Those are all fairly nitpicky issues, though. Overall, this was a very efficient performance by the Spartans on both ends of the court (71 possessions), with Lucas and Green leading the way and a lot of guys making contributions off the bench. Another small step toward this team gelling into a more cohesive unit.

Player bullets (official box score is here):

Draymond Green put on a show: 19 points on 9-11 FG shooting and 12 rebounds. Good to have another mid-range scoring option when Morgan isn't hitting.
Kalin Lucas with another very efficient scoring game: 19 points on 11 FG attempts. Up-to-the-minute shooting line for the season: .557/.429/.756.
Solid game for Delvon Roe: 11 points on 5-7 FG shooting and 6 rebounds.
Korie Lucious got the start and played well for the most part: 7 points, 4 assists, 2 TOs. A few sloppy moments in the second half.
Only 4 points for Raymar Morgan. Jumpshot has gone completely missing. Frustrated by Benson's shot-blocking. Chipped in 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 3 steals.
Chris Allen only hit 1 of 5 three-point attempts, but made plays elsewhere: 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal.
Durrell Summers looked pretty good. Didn't force things: 6 points and 3 rebounds.
Austin Thornton got some real PT tonight, entering the game with the first batch of subs: 2 rebounds and 2 assists in 10 minutes. Both his jumpshots were ugly looking, though.
Garrick Sherman was good at moments and bad at others during his 10 minutes on the floor. Nothing on the stat sheet to write home about.
Derrick Nix: Made a free throw! Missed two others, though. Free throw percentage stands at a whopping 8.7%. Nice game all around: 5 points, 3 rebounds, 3 steals, and a block in 12 minutes. Played good defense when he was matched up against Benson.
The Kebler/Dahlman/Crandall/Herzog playing group finished the game off with style, outscoring the Grizzlies 9-7 in the final few minutes (with an OU 3-point play in the final seconds). (Herzog's first-half appearance, on the other hand, was pretty miserable. Picked up a foul and a turnover in one minute of play.)

Next up: It's the annual week-long basketball break for final exams. The Spartans play next 9 days from now. Noon on Saturday the 19th vs. IPFW. At home. Big Ten Network.

Gives us some time to focus on that big bowl game match-up. And analyze legal charges. You know, football talk.

A Draymond Green Haiku

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 01:12:56 -0000

Efficient freshman.
What happens when minutes rise?
He's just as adept!

Haiku Data Supplement

	2008-09	2009-10
Min/G	11.4	24.9
Off Rating	111.4	119.2
Poss%	16.4	20.7
2pt%	55.0	57.6
FT%	61.5	78.1
FTR	64.1	53.3
OffReb%	10.7	10.6
DefReb%	22.9	23.4
Assist%	13.9	17.3
Turnover%	20.6	23.1
Steal%	2.9	2.5
Block%	2.4	3.6

P.S. We'll wait until Draymond's career is more than halfway over to write a full-fledged ode for him.

P.P.S. Geeks: "So long as Draymond can keep those turnovers down, he's going to become a member of a 1st team All Big Ten at some point in his career."

Whatever that Means: Michigan State 72, Wofford 60

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 04:53:52 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Isaiah Dahlman gets on the board.

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My viewing of this game was delayed, incomplete, and half-hearted--so we'll go straight to bullets (official box score is here):

As expected, Raymar Morgan (19 points on 11 FGA, 11 rebounds) and Draymond Green (12 points on 8 FGA) were able to score efficiently against the undersized Terriers.
Good 3-point shooting from Kalin Lucas (13 points on 2-5 three-point shooting, 9 assists) and Chris Allen (11 points on 3-5 three-point shooting).
Isaiah Dahlman got 12 minutes (and the start) against his younger brother's team, but only scored one bucket (on one shot). Sort of the story of his career--just never has found a way to get involved in the offense. Nice story tonight, though.
Meanwhile, Noah Dahlman was the only consistent scoring option for Wofford, scoring 19 points on 8-13 two-point shooting. The rest of the Terriers combined for just 7 made 2-pointers (on 24 attempts).
Turnovers were the big problem for MSU--and the reason Wofford was able to hang around until the final 10 minutes. 19 turnovers in 65 possessions (TO%=29.2). Six Spartans turned it over 2 or more times. They looked pretty sloppy on offense all night.
MSU dominated the shooting percentage and rebounding categories to offset the 17-percentage-point gap in the turnover department.

NCAA Basketball Stats

This was definitely one of those less-than-perfect performances I thought we might see over the next few games. I really have no idea whether the turnover issues are a major cause for concern beyond the concerns we already had. It's the first turnover percentage above 19% MSU has posted against a non-BCS/Gonzaga opponent, for whatever that's worth.

I'll let those who watched the game more intently chime in with their reactions.

Next up: ~~The Citadel visits the Breslin Center.~~ MSU visits Charleston, SC to play The Citadel. Monday at 7:00. ESPNU.

Oh, What a (Horrific) Night: North Carolina 89, Michigan State 82

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 05:38:36 -0000

More photos » by Gerry Broome - AP

If he was the question, we had no answer.

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On a night when it appears the bottom may have fallen out of the MSU football team, I guess a single-digit loss on the home floor of the most dominant college basketball program in the country isn't quite so worthy of teeth gnashing.

But it was still mighty painful.

North Carolina almost literally couldn't miss in the first half, building a 50-34 lead on 64.3% two-point shooting and 60.0% three-point shooting. MSU scrapped in the second half, getting the lead down to as low as 6 in the final 2 minutes. But the basketball gods seemed predisposed against us, as break after break went the other way. (Example: Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan running into each other on a back court steal opportunity that would have resulted in the lead being cut to 4.)

Given how well the Tarheels played on offense--not just taking full advantage of their height inside (36 points for Ed Davis and Deon Thompson on 22 FGA) but hitting from the perimeter, as well (18 points for Larry Drew II on 7 FGA)--you could argue that MSU shouldn't hang its head over this one. They did manage to score 82 points in a 78-possession game.

But what disappointed me--and the reason I don't think this loss can be easily swept away--is the lack of composure shown by the Spartan players at key moments. With the amount of experience MSU has among its perimeter players, they needed to do a better job of knowing when to push things and when to step back and let the game settle down. Kalin Lucas made more out-of-control plays than he has since he was a freshman, taking ill-advised off-balance shots (6-17 from the field) and narrowly avoiding turnovers after dribbling into crowds in the lane. I credit Raymar Morgan for his aggressiveness on offense (18 points on 10 FGA) but he also made some very poor decisions along the way (5 turnovers). And the 2-20 three-point shooting line the team posted was a sign, to me, of a lack of confidence.

MSU was the veteran team in this game, but (until the final couple minutes) they could never take the role of aggressor away from the less-experienced Tar Heels.

Bullets (unofficial box score is here):

18-54 FG shooting from the four MSU guards. So much for the best back court in the country.
Draymond Green is the one constant on this team: 13 points on 8 FGA, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, 1 steal, zero turnovers. He did end up fouling out against the taller UNC post players, but his position defense was quite good for most of the game.
Had to be tough for Delvon Roe to foul out against the guys he declined to be the teammates of. 10 rebounds and 5 steals for Roe, though. A couple pretty explosive moves to the basket, too.
Credit to Durrell Summers for bouncing back from a horrible start to end up with 16 points on 17 FGA. Only Spartan to hit a 3-pointer tonight. (Lucious hit a couple very long 2-pointers early on.)
Chris Allen, on the other hand, never recovered from his early 3-point misses. Complete non-/negative factor late in the game. Allen is now a combined 6-21 from the field in the 3 games against quality opposition. Very worrisome.
5 assists to zero turnovers for Korie Lucious, but 0-5 three-point shooting was a killer.
Didn't we used to have, like, a bunch of set plays? Way too much one-on-one play tonight. The failure to get a shot off after the timeout with 13 seconds left on the shot clock (and the lead at 8, I think) was particularly grating. Have to pin a little of that on Tom Izzo (although I'll go easier on him than I did in the Florida game recap).
Not sure what to say about the defense. Hopefully, we don't face many more teams this season that can take advantage of our lack of height like UNC did tonight. Seems like a limiting factor once we get to NCAA Tournament time, though--unless Green and Roe can get really, really good at position defense or Garrick Sherman and Derrick Nix make some really big strides over the next three months.
If I'd have told you before the the game the team would post a TO% of 14.1%, would you have said we'd win? Yeah, you would have.

NCAA Basketball Stats

At this point, I think expectations have to be reset. This is not a top-5 team right now--and it's not going to be at any time in the immediate future. They've got four games to get things together before the final shot at a quality nonconference win away from home (vs. Texas on the 22nd).

As I mentioned in the links section of the game thread, I'm starting to tire of the constant discussion of whether MSU basketball is "elite." Time to step back, build a cohesive team, and maybe be in a position to start to compete for a Big Ten title a month from now.

Next up: The Wofford Terriers visit the Breslin Center. Friday at 7:00. Big Ten Network.

Linking Laconically has something to say about Red Raiders, Sooners, Minutemen, AND Tarheels

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 04:24:38 -0000

The Endgame - Black Shoe Diaries
Odds of Penn State or Iowa getting the final BCS at-large spot looking pretty good at this point.
NCAA College Football BCS Bowl Projections Week 13 - ESPN
. . . making a trip to San Antonio for MSU an even more likely scenario. ESPN predicts Texas Tech (8-4) will be the Big 12 representative.
2009 Bowl Projections - Post Week 13 - The Rivalry, Esq.
TRE still likes Oklahoma, who stands at 7-5 after their upset win over Oklahoma State. Missouri (8-4) would appear to be the final potential Big 12 foe.
Staudt on Sunday: Immaturity leads to bad choices for ex-MSU players | lansingstatejournal.com | Lansing State Journal
Pat Narduzzi and/or Don Treadwell candidates for the Youngstown State head coaching job?
Top MSU recruit William Gholston likely will visit other schools | detnews.com | The Detroit News
I don't think we hit this last week. Concerned?
Attorney: Many MSU football players in altercation | freep.com | Detroit Free Press
I guess we're obligated to follow all the sordid details on this.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs North Carolina Tar Heels - November 29, 2009 - College Basketball - StatSheet.com
UNC beats Nevada by 7 today; 23 and 8 for Thompson, 16 and 15 for Davis; both teams will be playing on one full day's rest Tuesday night.
Michigan State players make sure coach Tom Izzo's milestone doesn't go unrecognized | MSU Spartans - - MLive.com
That's a decent-sized footprint you're leaving, sir.

Bonus, non-laconical MSU sports coverage after the jump.

On the bowl game thing: I say bring on one one of those high-powered Big 12 passing attacks. A win vs. Oklahoma--and, to a lesser extent, Texas Tech--would help salvage this otherwise multitude-of-opportunities-foregone season. And if the MSU defense gets shredded for a ton of yards through the air--even with 3+ weeks preparation time--at least it would make it absolutely crystal clear that something has to change in the Dantonio/Narduzzi defensive approach for next season.

Catching up on the UMass game: I just watched the game on DVR. Tough to beat a game with a four-factors graph like this one:

NCAA Basketball Stats

The one big negative was the number of times they let UMass get to the free throw line. Too many reach-ins on drives toward the lane as part of UMass's dribble drive offense, a continuation of a problem in the Florida loss. Gotta play defense with your feet, not your hands, boys.

Offensively, things went pretty well, of course. I was a little disappointed that the team came out and struggled to score against the 2-3 zone in the first 3 minutes (falling behind 8-2). With the number of shooters and passers this MSU team has, I just think beating the 2-3 should come more easily. Eventually they found the rhythm, though, knocking down 14 of 22 three-pointers and posting 27 assists on 41 made field goals.

Speaking of assists, Draymond Green had 6 last night and is off to a great start passing the ball this season, with 19 assists in 6 games (just 3 behind Kalin Lucas). But eventually he's going to have to start knocking down the 15-foot jumper from the free throw line area, as teams adjust to the fact he's looking to dump the ball down to a post player near the basket when he gets the ball in that position.

That about all I have to say about this one (beyond what LVS already said). Perhaps the biggest positive from the box score is that no one played more than 24 minutes. Unlike last year, the team should be relatively fresh for the Tuesday night grudge match with the Tarheels (9:00, ESPN). Preview tomorrow night.

Last but not least, another super important Twitter update: We previously announced the new TOC Twitter feed (@theonlycolors). I think I'm actually getting the hang of this tweeting thing now, beyond just the automatically-generated tweets for new blog posts. So, if you've ever said to yourself, "Man, that KJ has some fascinating opinions about sports. I wish I had access to more of his thoughts regarding assorted athletic events.", then you should definitely follow the TOC feed.

Can't Handle the Pressure: Florida 77, Michigan State 74

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 05:19:01 -0000

More photos » by Mel Evans - AP

Some personal space, please!

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In two years of blogging about this basketball team, I'm pretty sure I've never said anything like this:

This loss is on Tom Izzo.

When an unranked opponent shoots 5-24 from 3-point range, you simply have to find a way to win. And it's not like we didn't know Billy Donovan was going to throw the 2-2-1 press and the 2-3 zone out against us. Yet you could count on one hand the number of times it looked like the MSU players had a specific game plan for how to beat those schemes for easy baskets--despite a full four days of preparation time. The easy baskets that were created seemed more like a function of individual playmaking (e.g., Lucious passes on the drive in the first half) than by any cohesive plan of attack.

Having Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan at less than 100% certainly didn't help, but there are still four starter-quality players on this team that should be able to make plays handling the ball against pressure: Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, and Draymond Green. Instead, the game plan to beat the press ended up being "Give Kalin Lucas the ball and let him beat the press with the dribble." And that didn't work so well when Florida was able to deny Lucas the ball on the in-bounds pass. So you end up with Durrell Summers trying to back his man down the court and barely getting bailed out by a timeout call.

It doesn't happen often, but Tom Izzo got outcoached tonight. The result was a turnover percentage of 32.4% and a much-deserved loss.

Man, I really don't want to spend another season pondering why the team turns the ball over with such regularity.

From a statistical standpoint, perhaps I'm being too harsh about the lack of a well-executive offensive game plan. After all, MSU did manage to score over a point per possession (71-possession game). That was a function of efficient two-point shooting (61.7%) when they did manage to beat the Florida defensive pressure and stellar offensive rebounding (60.0% OffReb% [!]). Just imagine if we'd turn the ball over on, say, just 25% of our possessions.

Defensively, the Gators got to 77 points despite barely shooting over 20% on two dozen attempts from beyond the arc. They turned the ball over on only 15.5% of their possessions, scored proficiently in the paint (54.1% 2pt%), and got to the free throw line frequently, knocking down 22 of 25 shots from the line. The MSU defenders were much to quick to reach for the ball on drives by Florida players, picking up a series of bad fouls late in the game.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Bullets (official box score is here):

Despite having to leave the game early due to the problem with his foot, Kalin Lucas put up 20 points on 11 FG attempts. He was at his best scoring the ball tonight. Only 1 assist vs. 3 turnovers, though.
Draymond Green and Delvon Roe combined for 28 points on 13-17 FG attempts. They were the finishers on the plays when MSU was successful in beating the defensive pressures. Plus they worked hard on the boards--Green, in particular (11 rebounds, 5 on the offensive end). Unfortunately, they were also the culprits on some of the bad defensive fouls.
And Green/Roe weren't terribly unsuccessful in defending the Florida interior scorers. Alex Tyus, Vernon Macklin, and Chandler Parsons were the most efficient scorers for the Gators, scoring 35 points on 22 FG attempts. I'm very concerned with how we guard the North Carolina big men on Tuesday.
Durrell Summers was pretty good tonight: 13 points on 10 FG attempts and 6 rebounds. Unfortunately, he couldn't get one of those final two 3-point attempts to drop to send the game to OT.
Beyond the four guys, I've mentioned, the rest of the team scored just 14 points tonight. That's a disturbing lack of balance.
Raymar Morgan could not get anything going against the size of the Florida front line. And his jumper wasn't dropping. Zero points on 7 FG attempts and 4 personal fouls. Another thing to worry about for the UNC game. On a positive note, he did post 5 assists tonight and played hard on both ends despite the lack of scoring performance.
I thought Izzo was a little harsh in his halftime comments about Korie Lucious, calling his play "atrocious." He had a couple bad turnovers in the first half against the press, but he was also making aggressive plays to beat the Gator zone with the pass.
Bright spot: Austin Thornton. 4 points on 2 made jumpers, an assist, and two fouls drawn on box outs. He and Garrick Sherman were the only MSU players to appear in this game and not turn the ball over.
Speaking of which: Five MSU players turned the ball over 3 or more times. Ugh.

Next up: The University of Massachusetts (which lost to Rutgers 83-75 on the other side of the bracket) in the 3rd-place/consolation/losers-bracket game. 5:30 tomorrow night. HDNet again. I'll try to get what will likely be a very brief game preview up tomorrow morning/afternoon.

P.S. Michigan State has not won a nonconference tournament away from home since 1998. And they haven't won the Big Ten Tournament since 2000. Why do we play so poorly in tournaments contained within a single week? We seem to do OK in the one that lasts more than one week.

P.P.S. 1-5 for the Big Ten today. Not good.