SB Nation - Korie Lucious

Tempo-Free Overanalysis: The Sequel

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 02:34:02 -0000

Last night, I overanalyzed MSU's individual tempo-free numbers. Tonight, I'll overanalyze the team-level numbers. (The tempo-free primer is here, in case you missed it.)

On Offense

The team's adjusted offensive efficiency of 114.6 (23rd nationally) is right in line with last season's figure of 115.0 (20th). MSU hasn't lost an inch in the offensive rebounding department (43.9%, 7th nationally) and is showing substantial improvement in its effective field goal percentage (55.2%).

The team's 2-point shooting percentage of 56.6% is a full 8 points higher than the figure posted last season. Draymond Green and Delvon Roe are scoring efficiently inside, and Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen have showed remarkable accuracy when they've ventured inside the 3-point arc. There's some concern the efficient interior scoring will disappear when we start playing teams that can match/exceed our size inside (the team ranks 7th in the nation in lowest percentage of offensive shots blocked), but to date the shooting struggles against quality opponents have been from 3-point range (combined 7-41 vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC), not 2-point range (83-154).

Overall, the team's 3-point accuracy has been middling: 34.0%. And the team is actually taking slightly fewer 3-pointers than it did last season (26.1% of total FG attempts vs. 26.6% last season), despite Korie Lucious filling in a lot of the minutes Travis Walton left behind.

Offsetting the increased 2-point scoring efficiency has been a marked reduction in the number of trips to the free throw line. The team's free throw rate of 35.7 ranks just 195th in the country. Expect to see that number go up, while the 2-point shooting number goes down, as the team heads into Big Ten play. MSU ranks just 269th in the nation in free throw percentage at 64.4%--although that number's actually pretty remarkable when you consider it includes Derrick Nix's 2-23 performance at the charity stripe.

Finally, the turnover percentage number looks pretty good in the aggregate: 20.0%. But there's been a lot of volatility over the 10 games: 5 games below 17 percent, 3 above 25 percent. Included in the latter category are the giveaway explosions versus Gonzaga and Florida.

On Defense

The adjusted defensive efficiency figure of 90.9 (44th) is lagging well behind last season's figure of 88.4 (10th). The initial instinct would be to chalk that up to the graduation of Travis Walton. But the area in which Walton made the biggest contribution--limiting the number of good looks opposing scorers got at the basket--is actually looking pretty good. Opponents are shooting just 43.4% from 2-point range and 30.4% from 3-point range.

The issue to date has been the number of shots opponents have been allowed to take. MSU is creating a turnover on just 18.3% of possessions and allowing opponents to gather 29.3% of missed shots. That second number is still pretty good, ranking 60th in the country, but it falls short of the 27.3% figure posted last season (11th best in the country). No opponent has posted an offensive rebounding percentage above 35%.

Going forward, we'll see if the team is more like the 2008 Spartans, who were very good on the offensive glass but just OK on the defensive glass, or the 2009 Spartans, who were excellent on both ends of the court. That may be a stretch, given that Green and Roe are both rebounding the ball more efficiently than they did last season on the defensive end (and Raymar Morgan isn't too far behind his 2009 figure); the lack of interior depth is an issue here.

While Tom Izzo-coached teams have never relied heavily on creating turnovers, it would be good to see the team's defensive turnover percentage inch up a little. Morgan, Lucas, Green, and Roe are all posting decent steal percentages, though, so it's unclear how to make that happen; it's not necessarily a lack of aggresiveness.

On a positive note, MSU isn't allowing opponents to get to the free throw line as much as they did last season--although the similar-sized reductions in free throw rate on both sides of the ball could just be an indication of the less-physicial nature of nonconference play.

Summing Things Up

Most of the numbers above don't come as much of a shock. As expected, this team looks better on offense than it does on defense. Setting the Gonzaga/Florida/UNC games aside, MSU has posted an offensive efficiency figure no lower than 109.9 against its seven lower-tier opponents.

You can argue, however, that's it been offensive inconsistency in the areas of 3-point shooting and turnovers that have resulted in the two losses against good opponents and the need for a big home-court comeback against the third quality foe the team's faced.

Given the lack of depth and (experienced) height down low, the ceiling on this team's defensive prowess probably isn't as high as those of the last few MSU teams (although at least marginal improvement will be needed to contend in conference and tournament play). That means the margin for error on offense will be fairly small. Being as good as last season's team on offense won't cut it; they're going to need to be better.

The positive spin here is that this team could be undefeated with just a few more 3-pointers and/or slightly fewer turnovers against Florida and UNC. The negative spin is that the team has yet to put together a complete offensive performance against a team with comparable talent. Another opportunity to make that happens comes in just 6 days.

It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 03:07:36 -0000

Why is it the most wonderful time of the year?

Well, among other reasons, because individual tempo-free numbers are up at KenPom!

It's obviously still very early--with just 400 minutes of basketball under the belts of the 2009-10 Spartan basketball team (and only 120 of those against BCS-conference-level competition)--so the numbers are still what economists would call "advance." But, hey, they're new numbers. So we must analyze them.

Player bullets after the jump (explanation of individual tempo-free numbers is here):

Kalin Lucas' shooting numbers are looking pretty spiffy: .557/.429/.756. Having more offensive options on the floor this season may be helping boost his 2-point shooting percentage, as he doesn't have to try to manufacture shots late in the shot clock as often as he did last season. His assist rate is down a bit (even more so compared to where it was during nonconference play last season), a function of playing at the 2-guard spot alongside Lucious more often.
Draymond Green ranks in the top 500 nationally in 7 different tempo-free categories. But we've already waxed poetic on his efficiency.
Durrell Summers is the only player among the top 7 Spartans (by minutes played) with an offensive rating below 114. His stands at just 95.9. His 2-point (.492) and free throw (.840) percentages are pretty solid, though. Three-point shooting (.240), offensive rebounding (4.9), and turnovers (23.3) are the areas that need to improve.
Raymar Morgan's numbers are pretty good considering the injury issues early on: offensive rating of 114.8, contributing on the boards (10.4/16.6), steal rate at 2.8. It's all about finding some level of consistency: 4 games with 16+ points, 3 with 4 points or fewer.
Derrick Nix is sporting a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 20.0 and a nice block rate of 6.0 in his limited minutes. I don't think I need to mention what his statistical weakness is, do I?
Chris Allen is a "role player"? His Shot% is down from 28.4 last season to 22.0 this season. The upside is he's shooting a very efficient .647 from 2-point range and an acceptable .364 from beyond the arc. The downside is he's completely disappeared against good compeititon: total of 14 points vs. Gonzaga/Florida/UNC.
Delvon Roe's got some nice numbers for a guy who went scoreless in his first two (concussion-affected) games: top 150 in both offensive/defensive rebounding percentage, as well as block percentage, and a .604 two-point shooting percentage.
Korie Lucious is doing exactly what he needs to do from a statistical standpoint: distributing the ball with frequency (assist rate of 32.1) and keeping the turnovers down (TO% of 17.8, way down from last year's 32.0).
Austin Thornton is turning the ball over (26.2) and fouling too much (10.0 fouls created per 40 minutes) when he gets on the floor.
Garrick Sherman's numbers are decent (2pt% of .542, OffReb% of 13.9), especially considering a fairly high percentage of his minutes have come at the starts of games.
Isaiah Dahlman is leading the team in offensive rating at 135.8 (hitting 3 of 6 three-point attempts). But he still doesn't find a way to get involved in the offense with regularity when he's on the floor: usage rate of 11.8.

We'll leave off there and take a look at some of the team-level numbers later this week. It's never good to open all your present at once, right?

MSU 106, UMass 68: Afterglow Thread

LVS — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 02:12:51 -0000

More photos » by Tim Larsen - AP

Would have been more useful last night, but hey, c'est la vie.

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Your Spartans truly took out their frustrations against UMass tonight, winning in convincing fashion to take third place in the Legends Classic. State literally ran away from UMass in the first half, displaying a frequently-dominant transition offense punctuated by a 30-3 run. Perhaps most encouraging is that the three players who struggled the most yesterday -- Chris Allen, Raymar Morgan, and Korie Lucious -- rebounded with strong performances tonight, scoring 18, 17, and 13 points, respectively. State hit 14 of 22 from behind the arc, led by four each from Allen and Kalin Lucas; undoubtedly, the eFG will be quite gaudy for the second night in a row. Only surrendering 11 turnovers in a game which surely had a ton of possessions is another big improvement from the Florida game.

NCAA Basketball Stats

You know it's a one-sided game when the lead is 90% safe with 14 minutes to go . . .

Of course, tonight also marks the ascension of Tom Izzo to the top of MSU's coaching list: his 341st win vaults him over Jud Heathcote. It's a bit of an anticlimax, as the accomplishment would be much sweeter without the bitter taste of last night's game. But, it's nonetheless still a great accomplishment, and congratulations to Mr. Izzo; here's to many, many more.

State wins. Up next: North Carolina.

340 and Counting: Michigan State 90 Valparaiso 60

KJ@theonlycolors — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 03:46:32 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

Record, all-time wins by head coach, Michigan State University: 340 (tie), George Melvin Heathcote and Thomas Izzo (pictured).

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[Note: Another disjointed viewing experience: Listened to first half on the radio live (Matt Steigenga's becoming a really good color guy, BTW), watched second half live, went back and watched first half on DVR.]

Michigan State puts together a complete 40 minutes: 18-point halftime lead, stretched to 30 at the final buzzer. Straight to the player bullets (official box score is here):

Chris Allen is playing with as much confidence as he's ever had: 22 points on 10 FG attempts.
Delvon Roe is good to go: 10 points, 17 rebounds (7 on offense), 4 blocks.
Korie Lucious: 9 assists, giving him 23 for the season vs. just 3 turnovers. Man, did he drop some dimes today. Best pure passer of the Tom Izzo era?

Raymar Morgan: 9 points, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, and most importantly 28 minutes played. With four more days to get healthy, he should be pretty close to 100% for the Gators on Friday.

Kalin Lucas is Kalin Lucas: 15 points on 8 FG attempts, 3 assists, 2 steals.

Durrell Summers: 10 points, 1 scary moment.

Even when Draymond Green has a quiet game, he stuffs the stat sheet: 8 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 turnover, 1 block, 1 sheet. He's the anti-Mark Titus: he tries to fill every column in the box score.

We won't hit all of the other 7 guys to play in this game (none in double-digit minutes, as Izzo stayed pretty small throughout the game vs. the undersized Crusaders). It does look like Tom Izzo is making a conscious effort to give Austin Thornton a chance to earn a spot at the bottom of the playing rotation. 8 minutes and 4 FG attempts (only 1 made) today. They ran a set play for him off the timeout with a minute left in the first half, but he missed the open 15-footer.

This was a 68-possession game, so the offense was more spectacular than the defense--particularly when you consider that the Crusaders hit only 4 of 23 three-point attempts, missing some pretty good looks off bad MSU defensive switches/hedges along the way. Four factors graph:

NCAA Basketball Stats

MSU beat Valparaiso handily in all three of the factors besides turnover percentage. The execution against the Crusader zone was particularly good, resulting in a 2pt FG% of 61.0% and a 3pt FG% of 41.2%.

And the Spartan TO% of 19.1% was acceptable. No MSU player turned it over more than twice. Generally, it's encouraging that a higher percentage of our turnovers seem to be of the trying-to-create-something variety (as opposed to the no-purpose-brain-freeze variety) this season.

Minor gripe: The defense on in-bounds plays under the basket could use some work. Valparaiso got easy looks going down the lane several times today. Does having the defender guarding the in-bounds passer turn his back to try double team cutters really work better than just having him pressure the ball so the passer can't get a good passing angle to a player in the lane?

Next up: The actual whether-you-win-makes-a-difference-in-who-you-play-next phase of the Legends Classic. Atlantic City. The Florida Gators. Friday at 8:00. HDNet (check here to figure out if you get it or to find a sports bar that does).

Off and Running: Michigan State 97 Florida Gulf Coast 58

KJ@theonlycolors — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 04:47:28 -0000

39-point wins do not satisfy this man.

Near Calamity: So I had the good fortune of sitting in the second row behind the scorer's table for the season opener. For a moment, though, my proximity to the court enhanced the panic that raced through my heart when Draymond Green went down with a leg injury of some sort after lunging at Reed Baker in the waning moments of the game. Green was looking right toward my section in the split second after the injury occurred. I could read his lips: "Oh, S---." And his body language was the language of a man who thinks his basketball season might be over. He was helped off the court and into the locker room with staffers supporting him on both sides.

Thankfully, he emerged from the locker room a few minutes later, strolling by my seat with no limp whatsoever on his way back to the bench. It must have been a cramp that felt like something of a more structurally-damaging nature (Rexrode confirms).

So, like, WHEW.

Elsewhere: A 39-point win is, of course, exactly what you want in a college basketball season opener. But I do have some concerns. Let's start with those. Big picture, the question marks about our interior play cropped up some in the first half. The Eagles made 9 of 15 two-point FG attempts (60.0%) before the break, and MSU only pulled down 5 offensive rebounds in the first 20 minutes. Those trends reversed themselves in the second half, as FGCU shot just 36.4% from inside the arc after the break and MSU posted a stellar offensive rebounding percentage of 47.8% (on 22 offensive rebounds) for the full game, but the lack of an experienced interior player taller than 6'8" could be an issue at times this season.

One of the reasons it may have been more of an issue tonight was that Delvon Roe looked decidely less than his normal self. He was clearly still rusty as a result of the concussion he suffered in the first exhibition game, shooting 0-2 from the floor and fouling out in just 13 minutes of play.

Raymar Morgan, meanwhile, made an unexpected appearance in this game, playing 9 minutes in the first half. Unfortunately, those minutes may have set him back in the confidence department. He missed all 4 shots he took from the field, as well as all 4 shots he took from the free throw line, and turned the ball over on a travelling call in transition. He sat out the second half with a bag of ice wrapped around his ankle (some combination of precauation and a tweak to the ankle, according to Rexrode). I don't think we can expect a significant contribution from him next Tuesday.

OK, on to the good stuff (Official box score is here.):

The junior guards were on their games: 21 points for Kalin Lucas on 9-11 FT shooting, 17 points for Durrell Summers on 12 FG attempts (one more Rexrode note: ankle tweak, boo), and 10 points for Chris Allen on 8 FG attempts. Allen only shot 1-6 from behind the arc, but he showed very good judgment in terms of shooting the ball vs. pump faking and going toward the hoop.
Despite the fact that Lucas almost always ran the point when both he and Korie Lucious were in the game, Lucious posted 8 assists vs. just 1 for Lucas. 11 points on 3-7 three-point shooting for Lucious, to boot, and his defense was outstanding, stealing the ball twice, blocking a shot, and forcing a 5-second call. As he continues to work back toward 100%, Lucious is going to be a superb spark plug off the bench on both ends of the court.
Draymond Green stuffed the stat sheet: 11 points, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 turnovers, 1 block, 1 steal. I predict he leads the Big Ten in good passes that don't show up as assists because the recipient of the pass gets fouled under the basket. (This prediction has the advantage of being unverifiable.)
If ever the term "space eater" applied to a basketball player, it applies to Derrick Nix. 11 points and 14 rebounds in 15 minutes of play. The FGCU players couldn't do anything to get him out of the lane once he got position, and he ate them up in the second half. Has a nice knack for protecting the ball away from the basket with his body and then banking it in off the glass. Most rebounds ever by a Spartan in his freshman debut.
Garrick Sherman was unspectacular but solid: 4 points and 5 rebounds in 14 minutes.
Tom Herzog only played 7 minutes; he seems to have already fallen well below the two freshmen on the big man depth chart.
7 points in 9 minutes for Isaiah Dahlman, which is a major departure from his career points-scored-to-minutes-played ratio. Took his first 3-point shot with confidence when he entered the game in the first half; air-balled a shot from the corner in the second half, though.
Apparently the Austin-Thornton-as-a-power-forward thing is at least a little bit real, as he played a few minutes at the 4 spot in the final 10 minutes of the game. Picked up two quick fouls on attempted rebounds (one on each end), though.

As expected, this was an up-tempo game: 78 possessions. So giving up 58 points was a pretty solid defensive effort from a points-per-possession perspective. Some of that was a function of the Eagles just flat shooting the ball poorly, though. They made only 4 of 20 three-point attempts and just 12 of 25 free throw attempts. Giving up 25 shots from the free throw line to the Eagles (FT rate= 43.9%) is a little concerning, again highlighting the potential interior defense issues. Reed Baker was stymied for most of the night, scoring only 9 points on 2-10 shooting from the field.

After a fairly slow start (FGCU led after 10 minutes), MSU eventually overwhelmed the smaller Eagles, as evidenced by the 37 shots Spartans took from the free throw line. FGCU threw some zone looks at MSU to try to compensate for their lack of size, but the MSU players were pretty efficient in taking the zone apart, moving the ball around the perimeter to get good 3-point looks. There were a couple bad turnovers early, but MSU's turnover percentage for the game (16.9%) was quite acceptable.

NCAA Basketball Stats

Next up: The level of resistance increases substantially. The Gonzaga Bulldogs. Next Tuesday night at 8:00. In the friendly confines of the Breslin Center. ESPN.

P.S. As we hoped, two banners for the pre-Izzo Final Four appearances have been added to the collection of five Izzo-era banners that were unveiled at Midnight Madness.

P.P.S. The backs of our jerseys are psychedelic, man.

Preseason Musings: Expectations

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 06:16:38 -0000

More photos » by Amy Sancetta - AP

Tough to top this.

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Five Final Fours in eleven years.

It's a fabulous factoid, one that rolls off the tongue (or computer keyboard) of any and every Michigan State basketball fan with glee. It clearly establishes us as one of the elite teams of the last decade and a legitimate contender for the title of the top college basketball program over the last 10-12 years (not to mention one of the most stable programs in the country over that time).

MSU's lofty #2 national ranking going into the 2009-10 season reflects the program's status in the eyes of national observers. Regardless of how much basketball ability is housed on a team's roster, you don't get ranked that high in a preseason poll without a well-established reputation for success. Witness the other 5 teams among the consensus top 6 in the two preseason polls: Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Villanova. Those are some college basketball aristocrats.

Is the ranking justified? On paper, yes. A team that was among the top 8 regular season performers and advanced all the way to the national title game last season returns 7 of its top 9 contributors from the NCAA Tournament run. No team in the country (even Kansas, which is ranked #1 based largely on the return of two consensus All-Americans) can make a comparable statement.

But they don't play the games on paper. The question that looms over the heads of Spartan basketball fans going into Friday's regular season opener is: Can this team really be as good as we/they/everyone thinks they should be?

In spite of the 5-Final-Fours-in-11-years factoid, the program's track record in meeting high preseason expectations hasn't been all that good in recent years. The table below shows, for each of the 12 consecutive years Tom Izzo has guided the team to the NCAA Tournament, MSU's (1) preseason ranking in the AP poll, (2) ranking in the AP final poll (which occurs between the end of the regular season and the start of the NCAA Tournament), (3) seed in the NCAA Tournament, and (4) final tournament outcome.

Season	Preseason AP Rank	Pre-NCAA AP Rank	NCAA Seed	NCAA Result
1997-98	--	16	4	Sweet 16
1998-99	5	2	1	Final 4
1999-2000	3	2	1	Nat Champ
2000-01	3	3	1	Final 4
2001-02	15	--	10	1st Rd Loss
2002-03	9	--	7	Elite 8
2003-04	3	--	7	1st Rd Loss
2004-05	13	15	5	Final 4
2005-06	4	--	6	1st Rd Loss
2006-07	--	--	9	2nd Rd Loss
2007-08	8	18	5	Sweet 16
2008-09	6	8	2	Nat Runner Up

Negative spin:

MSU has not met/exceeded its preseason ranking in the final AP poll since 2001.
Between 2002 and 2008, MSU was ranked in the top 10 four times, but failed to finish higher than #18 in any of those four years.
The team went through a six-year stretch in which it was not ranked in the top 25 in the final AP poll in all but one season.
2009 was the first season in which the team earned an NCAA seed higher than #5 since 2001.

The NCAA Tournament results have continued to be as good as just about anyone's, but the post-2001 results have all come somewhat unexpectedly on the heels of relatively disappointing regular season results: making the Elite 8 as a #7 seed in 2003, reaching the Final Four as #5 seed in 2005, getting to a Sweet Sixteen by pulling off the (marginal) 5-over-4 upset in 2008, advancing all the way to the title game despite not being a #1 seed in 2009.

Contrast those events with the remarkable consistency of the Golden Era of 1999-2001: top-5 rankings in both the preseason and final AP polls, #1 seeds in the tournament, and Final Four appearances in all three seasons.

Now, to be fair, last season doesn't really belong in the negatively-spun post-2001 story I've told. The team dropped just 2 spots from its preseason ranking to its final regular season ranking, despite dealing with two pretty serious health situations along the way. The 2009 team was the first MSU squad to finish in the final AP top 10 in 8 years. All things considered, the team met expectations in the regular season--and more than exceeded them in the NCAA Tournament. The tournament run was straight out of a storybook (except for the part about the evil Tarheel attackers overrunning our defenses in the final game).

This year, the expectations are even higher. To be honest, I don't have much of an intuitive feel for whether the team will meet them. This time a year ago, in a post with a title similar to this post's, I foresaw good things: a 15-3 conference record and a potential Final Four run in the tournament. But that team just felt more like a classic Tom Izzo team: a balanced roster of 10+ players with varying skills, strengths, and levels of experience. If everyone played the role they seemed suited for (Lucas as offensive leader, Walton as defensive stopper, Suton as versatile big man, etc.), good things were almost bound to happen.

This year, the numerical depth still seems to be there, but it's not quite the same kind of depth. The departures of Travis Walton and Goran Suton mean the team's returning talent skews more toward offense than toward defense. And the additional losses of Marquise Gray and Idong Ibok mean Tom Izzo will be relying entirely on underclassmen (and an inexperienced junior in Tom Herzog) on the front line. It's less clear which roles everyone slides into this year.

Big picture, the burden is on the more experienced core of perimeter players--Kalin Lucas, Raymar Morgan, Chris Allen, Durrell Summers, and Korie Lucious--to carry the team. If that happens, it will probably be more by scoring points efficiently than by preventing opponents from doing the same. While MSU has, as often as not, been better on offense than on defense in recent years, it still just doesn't feel right for a Tom Izzo-coached team to be pointing to its scoring ability as its major strength going into a season.

And, despite the relative experience of the five perimeter players, most of them are still somewhat unknown quantities. Lucas is the exception, of course. He's the returning Big Ten Player of the Year. Even if he doesn't repeat that honor, he's going to be all-conference performer and a contender to be an All-American. Raymar Morgan, on the other hand, has a much wider range of potential performance: he could plausibly be an All-American, and he could end up merely a solid second- or third-team all-conference pick.

Allen and Summers have both shown flashes of offensive-star ability in their first two seasons, but it remains to be seen whether they can become consistent starter-level contributors on a national contender. Finally, Lucious could form a lethally-quick and efficient backcourt combo with Lucas, but (particularly in light of missing an offseason's worth of development due to injury) that may have to wait a year.

The collective outlook for this team is perhaps analogous to the individual outlook for Raymar Morgan: The team could, indeed, be a top-5 caliber squad that contends for a national title 5 months from now. Or it could turn out to be a talented, but flawed, team that drops 7-8 games in the regular season and only advances to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Time will tell. For now, I say we embrace the high expectations. The defensive move as a fan would be to say that last season was (almost) as good as it gets; let's not expect the same sort of success in consecutive seasons. But, if this program is truly on the path to long-term eliteness, annually-lofty expectations come with the territory.

So with high expectations fully embraced, I foresee the following:

A 12-1 nonnconference record. That means beating two good, but clearly less talented, teams (Gonzaga/Florida) in home/neutral settings and then knocking off one of two equally-talented teams (North Carolina/Texas) in more hostile settings. I'll say we beat a very young UNC team on their home court but lose to Texas in Austin.
A 14-4 conference record. We drop, at most, one game at the Breslin Center; beat Iowa, Penn State, and Indiana on the road; and pull off road wins in 2-3 games against the 6 potential NCAA Tournament teams we play on the road (no Ohio State).
That'd be good for a 26-5 record and, hopefully, at least a share of the Big Ten title going into postseason play. The Big Ten Tournament is always a crapshoot; if we're setting expectations high, though, a match-up with Purdue in the final (to perhaps break a regular season tie) would be lovely.
Nothing's guaranteed in the NCAA Tournament, which is what makes it such a fabulous sporting event, but if everything plays out to form in the regular season, nothing short of another trip to Indianapolis (hopefully as a #1 seed) would be satisfactory.

Beyond the roster-gelling issue, there are two other obvious obstacles to be overcome if the path laid out above is to be traversed. First, the plethora of injuries that is already plaguing this team has to fade fairly quickly. (Note: Things are looking a little better in that department.) Second, the Big Ten has to be good, but not too good. Michigan, Ohio State, and Minnesota all look like teams destined to be seeded somewhere between 4 and 6 in the NCAA Tournament. If one or more of them takes one more step up on the basketball ladder, getting through the conference slate with just 4 losses becomes a dicier proposition and a #1 or #2 NCAA Tournament seed perhaps slips out of reach.

Every season has its obstacles, though. Last year's team overcame those obstacles in ways that teams from the previous six seasons had been unable to (or were unable to during the regular season, at least). If this year's team can show the same resiliency last year's team did, the sky's the limit.

Six Final Fours in twelve years.

That rolls off the tongue even more smoothly, doesn't it? (Round numbers!) Let the quest commence.

Technical Difficulties: Michigan State 76 Grand Valley 53

KJ@theonlycolors — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 04:36:45 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

The big fella looks to score.

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Grumpy Preface: So the $2.99 I invested tonight bought me two hours of almost constantly freezing/restarting video feed. When I sent a message complaining about this to the good folks at bigtennetwork.com, I received a reply indicating--in more jargony words--that this was clearly the result of something I was doing wrong. Given that at least one other TOC reader experienced exactly the same problems, at exactly the same times, I am skeptical.

Anyway, allow me to say this to any BTN executive that may be surfing through: If I--a man trying to watch a video feed on your website using a less-than-six-months-old laptop computer over a medium-grade DSL connection while running no other software applications and not having anyone else in the house access the wireless network at the same time--cannot get a consistent feed, then I think your on-line video endeavor may not turn out to be all that profitable.

More practically: I didn't exactly get a great look at this game, so take everything below with a grain of salt.

Moving on: This was a 71-possession game (box score is here), so the defense was generally better than the offense. That doesn't come as a total surprise, given the state of the roster. Chris Allen, Delvon Roe, and Raymar Morgan all sat out. (The announcers indicated Allen and Roe could have played if this were a real game. As for Morgan, I think we'll do well to get 10-15 minutes out of him for the Gonzaga game.) Durrell Summers, meanwhile, only played 19 minutes, missing a chunk of the game after taking a shot to the eye from a Laker player.

The combination of those things meant that Isaiah Dahlman (23 minutes) and Austin Thornton (19 minutes) got to see a lot of the floor tonight. Neither did a lot to impress, at least offensively, as they combined for just 8 points. Both played solid defense and will be useful options in a pinch (and hopefully not more than a pinch) this season, but lineups like Lucious/Dahlman/Thornton/Green/Herzog are not conducive to scoring points in bunches.

Overall, the defense was solid. The three new big men (including Herzog; we need a nickname for those three to make talking about them as a group less unwieldy) showed their inexperience. Herzog and Sherman both picked up 4 fouls, and all three looked a little lost on switches/hedges at times. (Nix did have a nice steal of a post feed at one point.) Nevertheless, there weren't any major defensive breakdowns, and Grand Valley never really made a game of it, despite the margin staying below 15 for most of the game.

Bullets:

Grand Valley kept things close on the boards, posting a 28.2 OffReb% vs. MSU's 34.2%. But MSU won the turnover battle, as GVSU turned it over on 28.2% of possessions vs. just 15.5% for MSU.
The Lakers ran some zone/trapping looks, which didn't seem to phase the MSU players much.
Draymond Green is your player of the game: 15 points on 10 FG attempts, 11 rebounds, 2 assists (and several other nice passes that didn't result in buckets), 3 turnovers, 3 steals.
Kalin Lucas played 36 minutes, which is more than you'd like to see in an exhibition game. Forced some shots in the lane, converting only 6 of 18 FG attempts. Needs to get the mid-range game going more quickly than he did last season. 4 assists vs. 1 turnover, perfect on 6 FT attempts.
Korie Lucious played 28 minutes, so Lucas and Lucious were on the court together a lot. 12 points on 9 FG attempts. Instant offense.
Derrick Nix was again the most impressive of the big man three-pack (does that work?). 8 points and 3 rebounds in 18 minutes. His points all came early, though, indicating conditioning may still be an issue.
Tom Herzog is still lacking some physical assertiveness, particularly on offense, but I think he's progressing. Pretty good statistical productivity: 6 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 12 minutes.
Garrick Sherman didn't do much tonight: 4 points and 2 rebounds in 13 minutes.
Durrell Summers struggled to score, making only 2 of 9 FG attempts. Some of that may have been a result of having his eye swollen shut for the second half. 5 rebounds, though; he may need to do some extra work on the boards depending on how long it takes Morgan to be fit for 25+ minutes/game.
Second straight game the team didn't shoot all that great from beyond the arc: 4-12. That's a mild concern going into the regular season.
Tom Izzo got teed up in the second half. Not sure exactly why; just caught the technical foul being issued between video feed spasms. The Grand Valley coach had gotten all worked up earlier, so maybe Izzo just didn't want to get outworked on his own court.

Up next: A real-live basketball game! But not so much on a real-live TV network. Florida Gulf Coast (click here to learn more about the Eagles). At home. 7:00, Friday night. Viewable, apparently, on ESPN360. Someone care to fill us in on exactly what that is and how one goes about watching it?

Preseason Musings: What's Left to Say?

KJ@theonlycolors — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:05:51 -0000

OR "Previewing the Season by Reviewing the Offseason"

With just barely more than a week until the regular season basketball opener, I feel like I should be providing more in the way of preview-like substance around here. But, frankly, after seven months of offseason basketball blogging, I think I'm out of things to say. This is the downside of blogging about college basketball for all 12 months of the year, I guess.

So instead of trying to manufacture something, I thought we'd just go back and look at the various statements I've made about the 2009-2010 Michigan State basketball team since April. All of you can then tell me what I've missed (or, perish the thought, been wrong about). Off we go.

On Kalin Lucas:

On offense, MSU will generally have a stronger offensive group on the floor than it did this season, as Korie Lucious, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers consume the minutes Walton leaves behind. Hopefully, this will create more opportunities for Lucas to set teammates up for good shots and result in fewer instances in which he has to generate tougher shots late in the shot clock.

On the other end of the court, Lucas faces a substantial adjustment. During the first two years of his career, Lucas has had the luxury of not having to guard top opposing point guards most of the time, as Walton could be assigned to that task. Next season, Lucas will have to expend more energy on defense, as he becomes arguably MSU's top perimeter defender.

On Korie Lucious:

Look for Lucious to make major strides from his first season to his second. Specifically, he'll need to reduce his turnover rate and become a more consistent defender. He showed flashes of being a very good on-the-ball defender this year, but like most freshmen lacked focus at times.

The final three games of the season illustrate Lucious' potential: He scored 20 points in the 28 minutes he played against the three #1 seeds MSU faced to close the NCAA Tournament. If he can harness that scoring ability and become a more efficient ball-handler, it'll make MSU very hard to stop on offense. He'd give Tom Izzo the luxury of having an explosive point guard on the floor for all 40 minutes of every game and create defensive match-up issues for opponents when both he and Lucas are in the lineup.

On Chris Allen:

You'll note his minutes per game didn't drop as his shooting numbers fell. Tom Izzo's confidence in Allen actually seemed to grow as Allen's shooting problems increased. Defensively, his progress was particularly encouraging, as he became much less prone to mental errors. His progression was one of the keys in MSU's dramatic improvement in 3-point defense in conference play.

Going into next season, Allen's in a similar position to the one he was in last year: If he can become the consistent 3-point shooter he was billed to be entering college, he has the potential to be a 15-point-per-game scorer. The problem is that his college career is now half over and his career 3-point shooting percentage is just 33.3%. If he can move that number up near 40.0%, the potential remains for Allen to become an all-conference-level player, given the way he has progressed in other facets of the game.

On post player playing time:

Looking at the front court, this table provides further indication why Izzo will be looking for significant contributions from the trio of Sherman, Herzog, and Nix: All three are legitimate college centers. Draymond Green is obviously a 4-spot guy. He plays good positional defense but can't be expected to guard taller low-post scorers consistently (as noted by a couple commenters recently). Playing a smaller, quicker lineup with Morgan at the 4 would, then, mean Delvon Roe has to be on the floor. And at 6'8", Roe is not an ideal defender against players 6'10" and up (although Roe's improved athleticism as his knees continue to get back to 100% should help).

The math says SherHerzNix needs to contribute at least 15 minutes per game (to cover for Roe). And another 5-15 minutes will likely be needed in most games, depending on match-ups and foul trouble.

On Durrell Summers:

Unfortunately, after scoring 20 points in three games during that four-game stretch, Summers went into a prolonged scoring slump, scoring just 50 points in his next 11 games. He emerged to make some key contributions during the NCAA Tournament run, but never exceeded a scoring output of 13 points in a game.

Going into the 2009-10 season, here are the best/worse case scenarios for Summers:

Worst case: His junior year is like is sophomore year, with a tad more playing time: spectacular plays at times, inconsistent offensive contributions at others.

Best case: He makes a Morris Peterson-like jump from his sophomore to junior seasons. That four-game scoring explosion is evidence it could happen. He's got all the tools to be a consistent threat to score 15-20 points per game, grab key offensive rebounds, and become a shut-down defender.

On Raymar Morgan:

All in all, I think there's quite a bit for Raymar Morgan to build on going into his senior season--more than initially meets the eye in perusing the stats from his illness-marred junior season. If he can put the statistical efficiency from his sophomore season together with his improved attitude and aggressiveness from this past season, he could have a very special senior season.

Bigger picture, let's step back nine months in time. Last November, who would have though that MSU's top-billed preseason star would become such a limited factor in conference and postseason play and the team would still (1) win an outright Big Ten title and (2) advance all the way to the National Championship Game? There's the silver lining to Morgan's illness: It forced other guys (Durrell Summers and Draymond Green, in particular) to step up and make plays. Did that make MSU a better team last season? Probably. Will it make them a better team next season? Almost certainly yes.

On the 2009-10 Big Ten outlook:

. . . put all that together and you get the following three-months-out TOC Big Ten basketball power rankings:

Purdue

Michigan State

Minnesota

Michigan

Ohio State

Illinois

Northwestern

Wisconsin

Penn State

Indiana

Iowa

With two potential national title contenders and up to nine teams with NCAA Tournament hopes, the conference looks to be as strong as it's been at least since the 2004-05 season (when two Big Ten teams advanced to the Final Four) and maybe as far back as the 1999-2000 season (when the conference last sent seven teams to the Big Dance).

(Note: I'd probably knock Minnesota down two spots in the projected Big Ten standings at this point, given recent events in Minneapolis--although there's still certainly plenty there for Tubby to work with. The rest of the rankings still seem about right.)

On the schedule (this is Pete talking):

The home/away Big Ten game balance seems fair. 4 out of 6 home games to start, and 3 of the last 4 games are also at home.

As to difficulty, I wouldn't say the schedule seems front or back loaded. The degree of difficulty's pretty even throughout the season.

Undoubtedly you noticed that Michigan's the last game of the season. You also might be wondering if it falls on spring break, and the answer is yes. The Purdue game was at the same time last year, and judging by the Izzone's turnout to see the Boilermakers, I wouldn't be worried about a Wolverine invasion.

The last nine games could be shown on national TV. I don't know if that qualifies MSU as elite (if they aren't already), but it darn sure doesn't hurt.

Four weekend home games out of a possible nine is about the definition of fair. No complaints there either.

As to the nonconference, I can't recall MSU having an opponent as big as Gonzaga that close to the start of the season. Gonzaga just lost Austin Daye, Jeremy Pargo, and Josh Heytvelt though, so hopefully the Spartans can take advantage of a bulldog team who will be learning to play without three of their biggest stars. Also note the trip to The Citadel this year.

On Draymond Green:

. . . to what extent does his lack of height limit his upside as an interior presence? There were certainly times this past season when an opponent would grab a rebound over Green's head or turn and shoot over Green's outstretched arms. But those instances were relatively rare. Meanwhile, Green showed a knack for using savvy and positioning to overcome his relative lack of length and he posted very good rebounding numbers playing for the best rebounding team in the country.

Offensively, he showed no fear in going to the basket when presented with the chance. Note that his 2-point shooting percentage increased significantly as the season progressed and the opponents got tougher.

The old basketball maxim is that you can't teach height. But I don't think you can teach teach what Green has, either. I've said it before: Draymond Green is a basketball player. He makes plays.

On Delvon Roe:

If Roe is really back to 100% physically, the sky's the limit for him. The experts are already starting to pay attention: Jeff Goodman has him at #8 on his list of the top 25 players fans need to get to know, and DraftExpress.com couldn't find much to criticize (other than the free throw thing) in ranking him as the #12 NBA prospect in the Big Ten.

Roe has already demonstrated that he's a tough, smart, versatile basketball player. Put those attributes together with the physical talent that made him a five-star recruit and you're going to have a player who will eventually be a contender for the title of Best Big Man of the Tom Izzo Era.

On Tom Herzog:

You don't get voted runner-up for Mr. Basketball without having some decent basketball-playing abilities. And, while you certainly don't want to read too much into statistics from less than two hours of time on the court (mostly against opposing bench warmers), the tempo-free numbers above hint at the fact that Tom Herzog can do some things with a basketball.

On the offense:

Going forward, the hope would be that Delvon Roe and Draymond Green can maintain their rebounding prowess as their minutes go up, making up for the graduation of Goran Suton and keeping MSU's offensive rebounding percentage above 40 percent.

And there's reasons to be optimistic that the team can improve on the other three factors.

Travis Walton's departure will help with shooting percentages. (The loss of Walton on the defensive end will be a different story.)

A full season of a healthy Raymar Morgan and more playing time for Delvon Roe could boost the free throw rate number even higher.

And maybe, just maybe, the turnovers go down as the perimeter guys all pick up another year of experience.

On the defense:

What doesn't show up in the numbers is the effect that losing Walton and Suton may have on our opponents' effective field goal percentage. Walton's ability to shut down opponents' top perimeter scorers is something that won't be matched by any of our returning guards. And Suton had developed a knack for frustrating opposing post players in establishing position and getting good looks at the basket.

While the experience of our core group of perimeter players (Lucas, Allen, Summers, Morgan) should help some with cohesion in playing Izzo's man-to-man scheme with an emphasis on help defense, I'd have to put my money on a slight regression by the team on the defensive end. An offsetting increase in offensive efficiency may be needed to match last season's win-loss results.

On team depth:

After "toughness" and "rebounding," the word "depth" ranks right up there when you're playing word association with the name "Tom Izzo." The 2009-10 team should have it (note that we haven't even mentioned Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman, two players capable of being the 9th or 10th guys on a Big Ten contender). If anything, the challenge is to fit all the depth together, balancing out the relatively experienced group of perimeter players with the less experienced cadre of post guys.

While, of course, there really isn't a magic ratio that automatically leads to Big Ten titles and postseason success, I will posit that depth is a prerequisite for success for Izzo-coached teams. (Other coaches don't necessarily need it.) Based on what we know right now, that prerequisite has been met.

Man, am I prolific or what? (Ignore the fact that these posts were written over a period of approximately 200 days.) So what have I missed? What do you see as the key(s) to success this season? Which player's improvement is most integral to the team replicating the stupendous results of last season? Just how anxious are you to get this show started?

Back to Normal - MSU 76, Northwood 45

Pete Rossman — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 23:25:57 -0000

More photos » by Al Goldis - AP

about 1 month ago: Michigan State's Kalin Lucas puts up a fast-break shot over Northwood's Booker Stoudmire during the second half of an NCAA college basketball exhibition game, Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in East Lansing, Mich. (AP Photo/Al Goldis)

Browse more photos »

For the first half, it looked as if the basketball team had picked up the football team's hangover from last night. MSU was 1-9 on three pointers, 10-28 on two-pointers, and led by three at the half. This was despite getting 11 turnovers from Northwood and having 11 more rebounds than the Timberwolves.

In the second half, a sense of normalcy finally returned to East Lansing, thanks to Durrell Summers. Summers sparked the Spartans' scoring in the second half by making his first four goals, one of those a three-pointer, and State never looked back, scoring 43 points to Northwood's 15 in the second half.

Here are some of my early impressions from the game:

This was a physical game, especially for an exhibition. Lucas, Roe, and Summers all went down at different points in the game. Lucas was alright, no word yet on Roe and Summers.
Same old Lucas. Still quick, still dominant, still maybe tries to drive to the basket slightly too much. (edit - maybe too much - Kalin was apparently 5-21 on field goals? Yikes.)
Of the three big men, I'd rank their performance as so: Nix, then Sherman, then Herzog. Derrick Nix has a sweet drop step and used it a few times in this game to great effectiveness. Garrick Sherman was unremarkable, but effective. Herzog had a couple of good putbacks and blocks, but doesn't seem as strong or explosive as Sherman or Nix.
Favorite moment of the game - Draymond Green in the second half attempting to dunk twelve feet from the rim. He didn't get the basket, but he drew a foul and annihilated whoever the poor defender was from Northwood who tried to defend him. He's deceptively athletic, and had a double-double (14 pts, 11 rebounds).
The Spartans' shooting looks a bit rusty - 36% 2PT, 22% 3PT, 60% FT. Let's hope it was the team getting back up to speed since April.
Turnovers weren't a problem - only 11 in the game for MSU. Draymond Green had four of those.
Assist leader - Korie Lucious with 5. Green had the second-most with 4.

Not a bad first effort for Michigan State, especially in the second half. The second and last exhibition game will be next Monday, November 9th at 7 PM against Grand Valley State, and I'd never thought I'd write the past statement in my lifetime.

Preseason Musings: Depth

KJ@theonlycolors — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 21:42:38 -0000

Depth ratio, as formulated last June:

Depth Ratio = (minutes played by top two players) / (minutes played by 8th and 9th players)

This ratio allows us to compare a single number across different teams and captures two key aspects of having depth:

Not relying too heavily on one or two players to play nearly all of the minutes in important games, thereby reducing their ability to defend, rebound, and push the ball in transition with the intensity Izzo prefers.

Having enough bench players to allow everyone to play hard every minute they’re on the floor and be able to deal with foul trouble. Nearly every basketball team has to have seven guys who play significant minutes (five starters plus one perimeter bench player and one interior bench player). Having two more bench players you can count on is what sets a good Izzo team apart from other teams.

As applied to Izzo-era Michigan State basketball teams, the magic number turned out to be 3.00. Teams with ratios below that number have hung some banners at Breslin. Teams with ratios above that number, not so much.

Would the magic depth ratio rule hold for the 2008-09 season?

Season	Depth Ratio	B10 Record	NCAA Result
2002-03	2.35	10 – 6	Elite 8
1998-99	2.62	15 – 1	Final 4
1999-2000	2.67	13 – 3	Nat Champ
2004-05	2.74	13 – 3	Final 4
2008-09	2.90	15 – 3	Nat Runner Up
2007-08	2.90	12 – 4	Sweet 16
1997-98	2.91	13 – 3	Sweet 16
2000-01	2.93	13 – 3	Final 4
2001-02	3.14	10 – 6	1st Rd Loss
1996-97	3.28	9 – 9	–
2006-07	3.96	8 – 8	2nd Rd Loss
2003-04	4.39	12 – 4	1st Rd Loss
2005-06	4.51	8 – 8	1st Rd Loss

In the immortal words of Marv Albert: Yes!

Now you could argue that MSU's depth ratio was somewhat artificially deflated since the #9 player, Marquise Gray, received extra playing time due to Goran Suton's injury early in the season. But the team also had a #10 player, Korie Lucious, who averaged 9.0 minutes/game. This was a classically-deep Tom Izzo team.

Here's how the players on last year's team stacked up in Minute% compared to the prior year's team, along with a projection of the top ten players for the upcoming season.

	2007-08		2008-09		2009-10
1	Neitzel	79.0	Lucas	79.8	Lucas
2	Morgan	69.2	Walton	69.4	Morgan
3	Suton	66.6	Suton	56.3	Roe
4	Lucas	62.6	Summers	53.4	Summers
5	Walton	58.8	Morgan	51.8	Allen
6	Naymick	53.1	Allen	47.6	Green
7	Gray	32.6	Roe	44.9	Lucious
8	Allen	31.0	Green	27.8	Herzog
9	Summers	27.2	Gray	23.8	Sherman
10	--	--	Lucious	22.6	Nix

Going from 2007-08 to 2008-09, Kalin Lucas stepped up to fill Drew Neitzel's shoes as the 30-minutes-per-game guy, with Korie Lucious becoming the back-up point guard option. Delvon Roe, with help from Draymond Green, replaced Drew Naymick. And the #8 and #9 guys from the 2007-08 team, then-freshmen Chris Allen and Durrell Summers, became 20-minutes-per-game players.

In other words: Freshman contributed real minutes right off the bat, and sophomores weren't freshmen any more.

Going into the 2009-10 season, those same two things need to happen. Roe and Green need to suck up the bulk of the minutes Goran Suton is leaving behind, while Korie Lucious fills in at least some of Travis Walton's minutes. At the bottom of the PT spectrum, some combination of Tom Herzog (who is, in some sense, a 4th-year freshman), Garrick Sherman, and Derrick Nix will need to fill those crucial 8th and 9th spots in the rotation.

A lack of interior depth has sunk Spartan basketball campaigns before:

2001-02, following the graduation of Andre Hutson and the early entry of Zach Randolph into the NBA draft.
2003-04, following the graduation of Aloysius Anagonye and the early entry of Erazem Lorbek into . . . wherever it is he entered.

In both cases, young post players (Jason Andreas and Adam Wolfe as sophomores in 2001-02, Drew Naymick and Delco Rowley as freshmen in 2003-04) were unable to fill the void down low.

Hopefully, absent injuries, this season won't parallel either of those two situations. There's only one starter-level post player to replace. And Herzog and the two freshmen are already showing more signs of being able to contribute than the guys in parentheses in the previous paragraph were in a position to during the early stages of their careers.

After "toughness" and "rebounding," the word "depth" ranks right up there when you're playing word association with the name "Tom Izzo." The 2009-10 team should have it (note that we haven't even mentioned Austin Thornton and Isaiah Dahlman, two players capable of being the 9th or 10th guys on a Big Ten contender). If anything, the challenge is to fit all the depth together, balancing out the relatively experienced group of perimeter players with the less experienced cadre of post guys.

While, of course, there really isn't a magic ratio that automatically leads to Big Ten titles and postseason success, I will posit that depth is a prerequisite for success for Izzo-coached teams. (Other coaches don't necessarily need it.) Based on what we know right now, that prerequisite has been met.

Finally, it's worth noting that the past two seasons were the first back-to-back sub-3.00-depth-ratio years since the early Izzo-era Final Four run. The major factors in the peaks/valleys over the 2001-2007 time frame were (1) a rash of early departures (Jason Richardson, Randolph, Marcus Taylor, Lorbek, Brandon Cotton [a VERY early departure], Shannon Brown) and (2) the bunching up of the Hill/Torbert/Anderson/Davis/Ager core playing group, all of whom departed (along with Brown) in a two-year period. (Historical MSU roster is here.)

It would appear Tom Izzo has been able to adjust his recruiting approach to avoid an excess of early-departure guys. The second problem is probably unavoidable as a matter of basic mathematics (Roe/Green/Lucious will depart the year after Lucas/Allen/Summers/Herzog do), but depth-ratio valleys separated by periods of 2-3 years would certainly be preferable to annual fluctuations we've seen prior to these past two years. With a little luck, Izzo can keep the line on the chart below hovering around 3.00 for another decade (or two).